Canadian Industrial Outlook  Winter 2011

Canada’s Non-Residential
Construction Industry
Short-Term Risk Index
Key Issues
(percentage change)
Forecast Trend Government Spending—After being a key source of support for the indus-
0.75 try over the past two years, stimulus spending will begin to be unwound
Production 0.50 over the next 18 months, detracting from industry growth.
Modest 0.25
0 Input Costs—Price appreciation for many inputs is accelerating, while the
Prices 6 mos. 3 mos. Current industry’s ability to pass those costs on to customers remains limited. This
Modest is challenging profitability.
Cyclicality Permitting Activity—Commercial and industrial permit values continue to
Profits 0.32
rise, signalling that the recovery in industry demand should continue.
Recovering P
−1 0 1

KEY INDICATORS

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f

Real GDP (2002 $ millions) 10,633 11,006 10,803 10,724 10,888 11,109 11,554 11,964 12,288
–0.6 3.5 –1.8 –0.7 1.5 2.0 4.0 3.5 2.7
Employment (000s) 174.1 198.1 198.9 194.7 194.3 196.6 201.1 205.2 208.4
1.4 13.8 0.4 –2.1 –0.2 1.2 2.3 2.0 1.5
Price index (2002 = 100) 135.8 147.3 145.3 144.9 147.0 151.1 154.8 158.7 162.6
8.8 8.4 –1.3 –0.3 1.5 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.5
Revenues ($ millions) 45,153 50,450 48,788 48,047 49,505 51,916 55,328 58,733 61,802
8.2 11.7 –3.3 –1.5 3.0 4.9 6.6 6.2 5.2
Costs ($ millions) 43,271 48,292 47,449 47,125 48,243 50,391 53,616 56,877 59,844
7.6 11.6 –1.7 –0.7 2.4 4.5 6.4 6.1 5.2
Profits ($ millions) 1,883 2,158 1,339 922 1,262 1,525 1,712 1,856 1,958
22.6 14.6 –38.0 –31.1 36.9 20.8 12.2 8.4 5.5
Profit margin (per cent) 4.2 4.3 2.7 1.9 2.5 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.2
f = forecast
Italics indicate percentage change.

Economic performance and trends

 CURRENT ENVIRONMENT

G
rowth in non-residential construction
spending continues to surprise on the
upside, with three consecutive quarters of
healthy growth being recorded through the end of
2010. The growth has been primarily driven by strong
spending on non-office commercial properties, such
as retail space. But spending on industrial space has
also been surprisingly strong given the weak recov-
ery to date in manufacturing activity. Spending on
institutional structures is now trending down, as
government stimulus spending begins to unwind,
and this trend is expected to accelerate in 2011.
Although industry prices have begun to rise, most of
the spending increases are being driven by increases
in real demand. And while prices for a variety of key
inputs—such as cement and steel—have begun to rise,
the industry has been slow to pass these cost increases
on to customers. Given the healthy improvement in
demand and the positive near-term outlook suggested
by permitting activity, price appreci-
ation in the industry is expected to
accelerate in the coming months.
Permitting activity in the industrial
and commercial segments continues
to record strong gains. Year-over-
year growth reached 14 per cent for
the industrial segment and 7.6 per
cent for the commercial segment in
the fourth quarter. Nearly every major
spending category in these two seg-
ments is recording healthy increases.
The growth is also spread across the
country, with only one province (New
Brunswick) recording a decline in
permit values in the fourth quarter.
The end result will be a year of strong
recovery in 2011, with industry rev-
enues expected to return to near their
pre-recession peak by the end of the
year. The recovery would be stronger
still if it were not for the expected
downturn in institutional spending.
Beyond 2011, industry revenues are
expected to experience even stronger
growth. This will be driven by accel-
erating price inflation in the sector
and a stabilization of spending on
institutional structures. However, prof-
its will be much slower to recover
than industry revenues. It is expected
that cost pressures will be significant
in the coming years and that competi-
tive forces will prevent builders
from passing all of these costs on to
their customers.

Macroeconomic DRIVERS

Fears of a double-dip recession are fading as the Canadian economy shows

1
signs of accelerating out of its late summer lull. Although the pace of eco-
Employment Has Fully Recovered From
nomic expansion this year is expected to be weaker than in 2010, most eco-
Its Recession Lows
(employment, millions) nomic indicators are now pointing toward growth in 2011. This will result in

17.3 healthy absorption of commercial and industrial space this year, which will
17.2
17.1 further support the resurgence in construction spending that is occurring.
17.0
16.9
16.8
16.7 Employment Growth
16.6
16.5 Job creation was robust in Canada in the first half of 2010; and after slowing
2007 08 09 10 11 in the second half of the year, it has shown renewed strength in the past two
months. As a result, employment in Canada has now surpassed its pre-recession
Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada. peak (see Chart 1) and disposable income growth has been healthy. This has
been a critical factor supporting growth in retail expenditures over the past
18 months. With retail sales now having recovered fully from the effects of the
recession, demand for retail and wholesale space is also quickly recovering—
and, subsequently, so is construction activity. High consumer debt levels and
weaker income growth are both expected to detract from retail sales growth
this year, but the slowdown will not be enough to derail the recovery in con-
struction of retail space.

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 The strong pace of job creation has also been a key factor driving absorption
2
of office space. Since bottoming in mid-2009, employment among industries
Loan Growth Suggests That Access to Financing that are key users of office space—including financial services, professional
Is No Longer a Problem
(year-over-year growth in non-residential mortgages, services, and government—has risen by 157,000 positions. In combination with
per cent) a slower pace of construction, this strength in job creation was a key factor
behind the decline in office vacancy rates in most regions in the closing months
12 of 2010. Looking forward, the poor fiscal situations of many governments will
10
8 detract from the expansion of government payrolls. Private sector services
6 employment, however, is expected to continue to expand. This will allow office
4 vacancy rates to continue to fall and thereby contribute to a turnaround in
2
0 office construction spending this year.
2007 08 09 10
Credit Markets
Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada. There are now firm signs that the credit crisis is over. Growth in business
lending has been accelerating in recent months, and increases in non-residential
3 mortgage lending have been particularly robust. In November, year-over-year
growth in the value of non-residential loans in Canada stood at 6.2 per cent
Investment Intentions Are High
(share of businesses saying they plan to increase (see Chart 2), versus 2.8 per cent for all business loans. This suggests that
capital spending over the next six months, per cent) access to construction financing is generally no longer a problem for the
industry—and that situation is expected to persist going forward.
80
70
60 Business Confidence
50
40 Business sentiment improved significantly in the fourth quarter of 2010, as
30 The Conference Board of Canada’s Index of Business Confidence jumped from
20
10 101.9 in the third quarter to 109.5—its highest level in six years. Higher cap-
0 acity utilization rates were the primary reason for the increase. Respondents
2007 08 09 10 to the index survey said they were encouraged by the near-term outlook for
their firms, for profitability, and for the economy at large, leading many to
Source: The Conference Board of Canada. expect substantial increases in investment spending.

Recent surveys have captured increasingly enthusiastic attitudes toward

investment, and this trend continued in the latest survey. When asked if now is
a good time to invest in plant or equipment, nearly two-thirds of respondents
said it is. Meanwhile, the share of respondents who said it isn’t fell from 16.3 per
cent to 9.9 per cent. Given such a positive balance of opinion, it comes as no
surprise that investment intentions remain near record highs. Three-quarters of
respondents said their firms plan to increase capital spending over the next six
months (see Chart 3), a response rate that has been surpassed on only 10 occa-
sions since the survey began in 1977. Perhaps most impressively, 34.7 per cent
of respondents anticipate a double-digit increase in expenditures. Although
much of this spending will be directed at new machinery and equipment,
non-residential construction expenditures are also expected to benefit from
the recent strengthening in business confidence.

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 Industry Trends

Spending on commercial and industrial space is improving more quickly than

4 expected, but a slowdown in institutional spending this year will temper the
Canadian Retail Sales Have Outperformed industry’s recovery. As a result, it will be 2012 before total spending on
U.S. Sales
(retail sales index, Jan. 2006 = 100) non-residential structures fully recovers to its pre-recession peak.

U.S. Canada
120 Growing Interest in Canada From U.S. Retailers
110 In the past couple of years, a number of U.S. retailers have announced plans to
expand into the Canadian market, and that list has expanded considerably in
100
recent months with announcements from such heavyweights as Target, J. Crew,
90
and Marshalls. A key factor driving this trend is the fact that retail sales have
80
been growing faster in Canada than in the U.S. since 2006. (See Chart 4.) As
2006 07 08 09 10
well, with many Canadian shoppers already familiar with U.S. brands, and
given the close proximity, many U.S. retailers look to Canada as an easy first
Sources: Statistics Canada; U.S. Census Bureau;
The Conference Board of Canada. foray into international markets.

5 The surge of new entrants in the retail sector has supported, and will continue
to support, absorption of retail space in Canada. As a result, construction
Office Vacancy Rates Remain Elevated in Most
Major Markets intentions remain high. CB Richard Ellis reports that there are 6.2 million
(vacancy rate, 2010 Q4, per cent) square feet of retail space currently under construction in Canada, with activity
skewed toward markets in Western Canada, where the economic recovery has
Halifax been more robust.1 As well, private and public investment intentions data
Montréal
released recently by Statistics Canada suggest that retailers plan to increase
Ottawa
Toronto spending on construction by 6.1 per cent in 2011. An expected slowdown in
Waterloo region consumer spending growth this year is a potential concern and will likely
London
lead to slower growth in spending beyond 2011. For now, however, spending
Winnipeg
Edmonton on retail construction continues to experience healthy growth.
Calgary
Vancouver
Office Space
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 One of the few major categories of non-residential construction expenditures
that has yet to stage a significant recovery is office space. In both nominal and
Source: CB Richard Ellis. price-adjusted terms, spending on office space continued to decline over the
course of 2010, with the sixth consecutive quarter of decline being recorded in
the fourth quarter. A key factor preventing a recovery in spending to date has
been the high vacancy rate for office space in most markets. (See Chart 5.)
The good news is that vacancy rates appear to have peaked. CB Richard Ellis
reported that the national office vacancy rate fell 30 basis points in the fourth
quarter to 9.5 per cent.2

With absorption picking up and vacancy rates falling, the pace of office con-
struction is expected to improve in 2011. Permitting activity for office space
has been volatile in the past year, but the value of office permits was up in

1 Ricky Hernden, Canadian Retail MarketView: Year-End 2010 (Toronto: CB Richard Ellis, 2010).
www.cbre.ca/NR/rdonlyres/D6AF0580-ADC5-42E9-BBD5-5FA059A67D59/891108/
national4q10ret.pdf.

2 Roelof van Dijk, Canadian Office MarketView: Fourth Quarter 2010 (Toronto: CB Richard Ellis,
2010). www.cbre.ca/NR/rdonlyres/D6AF0580-ADC5-42E9-BBD5-5FA059A67D59/891106/
national4q10ofc.pdf.

4  |  Canada’s Non-Residential Construction Industry—Winter 2011 Find this report and other Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca
 the fourth quarter relative to the same period in 2009. This will allow spend-
6
ing on office construction to rise by a modest 1.8 per cent in 2011. Growth
Government Deficits Will Primarily Affect will be much stronger thereafter, as lower vacancy rates and healthy absorp-
Institutional Spending
(share of expenditures coming from government, tion will drive increased investment expenditures.
per cent)
Effects of Government Restraint
100
The end of the stimulus programs that were announced at the height of the
80 recession, along with a return to government restraint in general, will detract
60 from growth in non-residential construction spending in the near term. The
40 effects will be most pronounced in the institutional segment, where a decline
20 in spending of 5.9 per cent is expected this year. But the effects of government
0 cutbacks will be felt in all segments of the industry. Government, including the
Institutional Commercial Industrial education and public health care sectors, accounts for 97 per cent of institutional
construction spending; but it also accounts for 17 per cent of commercial and
Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada. 4 per cent of industrial expenditures. (See Chart 6.) This is because govern-
ment is a user of assets such as office space.

With the combined provincial and federal deficits currently running in excess of
$80 billion, there will continue to be pressure on governments to contain spend-
ing in the coming years. This will lead to a further reduction in institutional
spending in 2012. Beyond then, spending is expected to rise again. Countering
the effects of deficits in the medium term and beyond will be the effect of the
aging population on demand for health care.

Financial performance

Industry revenues and profits both began to improve in the second half
of 2010, and those gains will continue into 2011. Thus, after two years of
decline, the industry’s finances will begin to improve this year. However, it
will be 2012 before industry revenues fully recover from the effects of the
recession—and it will take even longer for profitability to recover, as cost
pressures are on the rise as well.

Revenues
In tandem with rising demand, industry revenues began to expand in the
second half of 2010. However, weak price appreciation and the bad start to
the year means that industry revenues recorded their second year of decline in
2010. Although two consecutive years of declining revenue is hardly a good
thing, it is important to note that this recession has been very mild by historic
standards for the industry. In the recession of the early 1990s, for example,
industry revenues declined by 30 per cent. In this most recent recession, they
fell just 8.6 per cent.

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 Industry revenues will continue to grow this year, but the pace of growth will
7
be muted by the weakness in institutional spending. As such, it will be 2012
Commercial Expenditures Will Be the Largest before industry revenues fully recover from the effects of the recession. The
Source of Growth for Industry Revenues
(construction spending by category, percentage change) commercial segment will be the main source of growth over the medium term,
driven in particular by healthy increases in demand for office and retail space.
Institutional Industrial Commercial (See Chart 7.)
20
15
10 Costs
5 With construction activity now rising, industry costs are also beginning to rise
0
−5 once again. The most significant increases have come from labour costs, as
−10 employment has stabilized and average weekly earnings have risen considerably
−15
−20 from their recession-induced lows. Prices for material inputs are also generally
2004 05 06 07 08 09 10 11f 12f 13f 14f 15f on the rise, with products that use oil as inputs—such as asphalt roofing and
plastic pipes—experiencing the strongest growth. (See Chart 8.) Thus far, the
f = forecast industry has not been able to pass these input price increases on to its customers.
Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.

Cost appreciation in the industry will accelerate over the next two years, as
8 construction activity improves and prices for key inputs rise further. As well,
Input Prices Are Rising labour is a major cost component for the sector, accounting for 40 per cent of
(year-over-year change as of December 2010, per cent) costs, and labour constraints are also expected to re-emerge in the coming years.
As a result, the industry is expected to experience above-average growth in
Steel
wage rates. In this environment, cost pressures will continue to constrain
Cement industry margins in the coming years.
Bricks and tiles
Profits
Plastic pipes
With price appreciation still limited and cost pressures rising, it is not surpris-
Asphalt roofing
ing that the industry recorded a second consecutive year of large declines in
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 profitability. Pre-tax profits are estimated to have fallen to $922 million in 2010,
their lowest level since 2004. (See Chart 9.) However, industry profits will
Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada. begin to improve in 2011. As demand continues to recover, the industry will
regain some of its pricing power and it will be better able to pass through cost
9 increases to customers. Despite this improvement, margins will remain under
pressure and industry profits will not return to their pre-recession peak before
Industry Profits Will Improve Steadily in the
Coming Years the end of the forecast horizon.
(pre-tax profits, $ billions)

2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0
2002 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11f 12f 13f 14f 15f

f = forecast
Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada.

6  |  Canada’s Non-Residential Construction Industry—Winter 2011 Find this report and other Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca
 At a glance

Main Inputs, 2007 Average Annual Output Growth Large Users, 2007
Per (percentage change) Per
Commodity cent Industry cent
Non-residential construction
Architect, engineering, legal, Government sector 35.8
and accounting services 19.3 Goods-producing industries
Wholesale and retail
Wholesaling margins 8.2 All Industries
trade industries 14.9
4
Ready mix concrete 5.3 Service industries 13.7
3
Metal doors and windows 4.4 2 Finance, insurance, and real
Other professional services 3.0 1 estate industries 12.8

Prefabricated structures 2.8 0 Transportation and

−1 storage industries 6.1
Concrete products 2.8
−2 Agriculture and fishing industries 4.0
Other financial intermediary and 2000–04 2005–09 2010–14f
real estate (non-rent) services 2.7 Construction industries 1.9
f = forecast Chemical and chemical
Transportation margins 2.0
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; products industries 1.8
Wood prefab buildings 1.8 Statistics Canada.
Other utility industries 1.5
Other plastic products 1.8
Transportation equipment
Spare parts and
Top Companies, 2009 industries 1.3
maintenance supplies 1.7
Primary metal and fabricated
Light fixtures 1.7 Revenues
metal product industries 0.9
Plastic pipe, pipe fittings, and ($ millions)
Food and beverage industries 0.8
rubber end-products 1.4 PCL Construction
Group Inc. 6,158 Non-metallic mineral
Non-electric furnaces and products industries 0.5
heating equipment 1.1 SNC-Lavalin Group Inc. 6,102
Wood industries 0.4
Ledcor Group of
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Machinery industries (except
Companies 2,514
Statistics Canada. electric machinery) 0.2
EllisDon Inc. 2,429
Rubber and plastic
Aecon Group Inc. 2,261
products industries 0.2
Jacobs Canada Inc. 1,885
Paper and allied products
Pricing Power Graham Group Ltd. 1,709 industries 0.2

(price index; 2002 = 100) Hatch Associates Ltd. 1,548

Sources: The Conference Board of Canada;
Bird Construction 878 Statistics Canada.
Non-residential construction
Fluor Canada Ltd. 809
CPI
170 Sources: The Conference Board of Canada;
160
150 Financial Post 500.
140
130
120
110 Capital Intensity, 2010
100 Labour Intensity, 2010
90
80 (2002 $ 000s; capital stock per employee) (workers per $1 million of real output)
1997 99 01 03 05 07 09 11f 13f 15f Non-residential Non-residential
construction construction
f = forecast Goods-producing Goods-producing
industries
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; industries
Statistics Canada. All industries
All industries
0 50 100 150 200 0 5 10 15 20
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Sources: The Conference Board of Canada;
Statistics Canada. Statistics Canada.

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 USER GUIDE
Risk Index
This risk index is a leading indicator cre-
ated by The Conference Board of Canada.
It provides an early indication of turning
points in the industry’s performance. In
the case of the non-residential construc-
tion industry, components of the index
include Statistics Canada’s composite
leading indicator, the unemployment rate,
non-residential building permits, personal
income, and manufacturing GDP. The
reported number is the six-month moving
average of the month-to-month growth
in the index. Thus, the higher (lower)
the number is, the stronger (weaker) the
industry’s profit prospects are. The chart
provides the current growth rate and
what it was three months ago and six
months ago, to give the reader an idea
of how the industry’s risks are changing
over time.
Key Indicators
Real GDP
Real gross domestic product (GDP) is a standard measure of industry
output and is equal to the total value that an industry creates. As such,
it is a measure of the industry’s contribution to economic growth. It is
stated in millions of 2002 dollars and is reported by Statistics Canada.
Employment
Employment is the total number of full-time and part-time employees in
a given industry. As part of its Labour Force Survey, Statistics Canada
reports employment data monthly, in thousands.
Price Index
This indicator is a composite measure of the output prices for all of an
industry’s products. The data for this series come from the Industrial
Product Price Index produced by Statistics Canada. All price indexes
are standardized in the form of an index where 2002 = 100.
8  |  Canada’s Non-Residential Construction Industry—Winter 2011 Find this report and other Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca
Cyclicality
The cyclicality indicator is calculated by
The Conference Board of Canada as the
correlation between GDP growth in the
industry and the economy as a whole.
The number is bound between −1 and 1.
A value close to one indicates that move-
ments in the industry’s output are strongly
correlated with movements in the national
economy and are thus cyclical. A value
close to zero indicates no relationship
between the national economy and the
industry, while a negative value implies
that growth in the industry is inversely
related to the economy’s performance.
Revenues
Revenues are the total receipts that an industry accumulates. They are a
product of pricing and of production (which is equivalent to sales in 2002
dollars). The data are reported by Statistics Canada as part of its Quarterly
Financial Statistics for Enterprises and are stated in millions of dollars.
Costs
Costs are the sum of labour, material, and capital costs for each indus-
try, where capital costs include both interest expense and depreciation
expense. The data are reported by Statistics Canada as part of its Quarterly
Financial Statistics for Enterprises and are stated in millions of dollars.
Profits
Profits are equal to revenues less costs and are stated before taxes or
extraordinary items. The data are reported by Statistics Canada as part of
its Quarterly Financial Statistics for Enterprises and are stated in millions
of dollars.
Profit Margin
The profit margin is the ratio of profits to revenues.
 USER GUIDE (cont’d)
Main Inputs
This table lists the industry’s major
material inputs. The purpose is to indi-
cate the industry’s sensitivity to chan-
ging prices for its various inputs. This
information is based on the input-output
tables produced annually by Statistics
Canada. It is reported in this table as a
share of the total value of material inputs
into the industry.
Pricing Power
This chart compares the non-residential
construction industry’s output price index
with the Consumer Price Index (CPI). It
indicates whether prices in the industry are
rising faster or more slowly than average
overall prices over time. Industries with
above-average price appreciation are able
to consistently raise prices faster than the
rate of broad inflation and generally have
pricing power. Industries with weak price
appreciation generally have poor pricing
power. Both price indexes are bench-
marked so that 2002 is equal to 100.
Capital Intensity
Capital intensity is a measure of how
much capital stock—which takes the
form of machinery, equipment, and
non-residential structures—there is per
employee in the industry. High capital
intensity can be a barrier to entry in an
industry, limiting competition. Industries
with higher capital intensity also gener-
ally have higher levels of output per
employee. For comparison purposes, the
chart displays the capital intensity of the
non-residential construction industry, of
all goods-producing industries, and of all
industries in Canada.
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Top Companies
This table lists the largest companies in the
industry, sorted by revenues. Both public and
private companies are listed, and the data are
reported in millions of dollars. In the case of
the non-residential construction industry, total
global revenues are listed.
Average Annual Output Growth
This chart compares the average annual
GDP growth of the industry with that of
all goods-producing industries and of all
industries in Canada. The comparison is
provided over three different time periods:
two historical and one forecast. This pro-
vides an indication of how the industry
has performed and will perform relative
to the rest of the economy at different
periods in time.
Large Users
This table lists the major customers for the
industry’s products. These could include
specific industries within Canada or con-
sumers. This information is based on the
input-output tables produced annually by
Statistics Canada. It is reported here as a
share of the total value of industry output.
Labour Intensity
Labour intensity is a measure of how
much labour it takes to produce a unit of
output. Labour costs constitute a higher
portion of overall costs for industries with
higher labour intensity. Industries with
higher labour intensity that produce trad-
able goods or services are also generally
more susceptible to competition from
low-wage countries. For comparison
purposes, the chart displays the labour
intensity of the non-residential construc-
tion industry, of all goods-producing
industries, and of all industries in Canada.
 The Canadian Industrial Outlook Service includes detailed five-
year forecasts in 16 key Canadian industries. The report examines
the short- and medium-term economic and profitability outlooks
for the following industries: oil extraction, gas extraction, residen-
tial construction, non-residential construction, food products, paper
products, motor vehicles, motor vehicle parts, aerospace products,
air transportation, food services, accommodation, telecommunica-
tions, computer systems design, computer and electronic product
manufacturing, and wood products. Outlooks for several financial
and economic variables—prices, production, revenues, expenditures,
profits, gross domestic product, and employment—are generated
based on forecasts of key domestic and international factors such as
interest rates, exchange rates, and tax policy. The Conference Board’s
Canadian Outlook Executive Summary is presented in a separate
publication to set the stage for the Canadian economy.
The Canadian Industrial Outlook is updated twice a year using the
Conference Board’s econometric and financial model. The publication
can be accessed online at www.e-library.ca and, for clients subscribing
to e-Data, at www.conferenceboard.ca/edata.htm. For more informa-
tion, please contact our information specialist at 613-526-3280 or
1-866-711-2262, or by e-mail at contactcboc@conferenceboard.ca.

Canada’s Non-Residential Construction Industry

by Michael Burt

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