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Volume 5, Issue 11 • December 2009

The Polls: 2009 in Review


We greeted Barack Obama with very high expectations and high marks in public opinion polls. Over the course of his
first year in office, his ratings have dropped significantly. A weak economy has clearly contributed to the public’s concerns.
Three in ten, up from 18 percent in January, say they or someone in their household has been laid off or lost a job in the
last year.

Barack Obama Michelle Obama Joe Biden


Q: Do you approve of . . . ? Q: Do you . . . ? Q: Do you . . . ?
The way Barack Obama is Have a generally favorable Approve of the job Joe Biden
handling his job as president opinion of Michelle Obama is doing as vice president
February 76% January 65% April 53%
December 48 November 63 December 38
Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, Source: Fox News/Opinion Dynamics, latest Source: Fox News/Opinion Dynamics, latest
latest that of December 2009. that of November 2009. that of December 2009.

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs The Most Important Problem


Q: What do you think is the most important problem
Consumer Confidence Index
facing this country today?
January 61.2
December Most important problem
(preliminary) 73.4 facing this country today
Source: Reuters/University of Michigan, latest that of December November January
2009. Economy in general 31% 57%
Poor health care/hospitals;
Q: In the last year, have . . . ? High cost of healthcare 22 4
You or anyone in your household Unemployment/jobs 20 11
been laid off or lost a job War/fear of war 8 *
Dissatisfaction with government/
February 18%
Congress/politicians; poor
November 30
leadership; corruption;
Source: ABC/Washington Post, latest that of November 2009. abuse of power 8 5
Federal budget deficit/
Q: Do you think the . . . ? federal debt 6 2
Economy is in a recession Note: * equals less than 1 percent. In January, 18 percent men-
tioned the “Situation/war in Iraq”. In November, 3 percent did.
December 2008 89% Source: The Gallup Organization, latest that of November 2009.
December 2009 84
Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, latest that of Decem-
ber 2009.

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Congress on the Couch, 2009
Approval of both the Republicans and Democrats in Congress is low, as are views about the institution. Republicans
are gaining ground on generic ballot questions, although there has been little movement in their direction on partisan
identification, as the Pew poll below shows.
Q: Do you . . . ? Q: In the next Congressional election in 2010, are you . . . ?
Approve of the way Congress December April
is handling its job More likely to vote for
January 19% a Democrat to help
February 31 Barack Obama pass his
November 26 policies and programs 39% 46%
Vote for a Republican to
Source: The Gallup Organization, latest that of
November 2009. provide a check on
Obama’s power 42 33
Q: Do you . . . ? Note: In April, 17 percent said it was too soon to say. In December, 14 percent gave
that response.
Approve of the way Democrats Source: Fox News/Opinion Dynamics, latest that of December 2009.
in Congress are handling their job
March 45% Q: Do you . . . ?
December 33 December January
Source: Quinnipiac, latest that of December 2009. Think the country
would be better off if
Approve of the way Republicans Republicans controlled
in Congress are handling their job Congress 39% 31%
March 30% If Democrats controlled
December 30 Congress 40 56
Source: Quinnipiac, latest that of December 2009. Source: CNN/Opinion Research Corporation, January and December 2009.

Party Identification
Q: In politics today, do you . . . ?
——————————————2009——————————————————
December January December January
—————With Leaners —————
Consider yourself a Republican 25% 25% 39% 36%
Democrat 32 37 47 53
Independent 38 33
Source: PSRA/Pew Research Center, latest that of December 2009.

AEI POLITICAL REPORT CONTRIBUTORS


Karlyn Bowman, Senior Fellow; John Fortier, Research Research Assistants: Jennifer Marsico, Editor; Andrew
Fellow; Norman Ornstein, Resident Scholar; Rugg, Editor.
Michael Barone, Resident Fellow. Interns: Jordan Miller; Michael Sebring.

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The Parties Head-to-Head on the Issues
The Democratic Party has lost ground in many areas since last December, and the GOP has gained, especially on issues
relating to the economy and health care, the year’s most visible topics.
Q: Which party could do a better job of . . . ?
Democratic Party Republican Party
Improving the educational system
59% Dec. 2008 24%
45 Dec. 2009 30
Dealing with the economy
58% Dec. 2008 27%
40 Dec. 2009 39
Dealing with the terrorist threat at home
47% Dec. 2008 38%
35 Dec. 2009 42
Improving morality in this country
51% Dec. 2008 31%
37 Dec. 2009 36
Dealing with taxes
52% Dec. 2008 35%
39 Dec. 2009 41
Protecting the environment
64% Dec. 2008 20%
52 Dec. 2009 27
Making wise decisions about
what to do in Iraq
54% Dec. 2008 33%
39 Dec. 2009 34
Reforming the U.S. health care system
62% Dec. 2008 23%
40 Dec. 2009 36
Reducing the federal budget deficit
56% Dec. 2008 26%
34 Dec. 2009 41
Making America more respected in the world
58% Dec. 2008 27%
43 Dec. 2009 35
Generating economic growth
58% Dec. 2008 28%
38 Dec. 2009 41
Making America more competitive
in the world economy
53% Dec. 2008 33%
40 Dec. 2009 37
Making wise decisions about foreign policy
53% Dec. 2008 33%
40 Dec. 2009 39
Source: Ipsos Public Affairs/McClatchy, latest that of December 2009.

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Obama in Decline? Presidential Approval Over Time
Most presidents have seen their approval ratings drop in their first year in office, but Barack Obama’s decline
has been especially sharp. Here we compare President Obama to his Democratic predecessors and separately, to
his recent predecessors from both parties. The approval ratings for the two other Democratic presidents who
experienced some low first-year ratings, Carter and Clinton, both appeared to be on the rise by the end of the
year. As of this writing, Obama’s ratings are not rising.

100 Obama Compared to His Democratic Predecessors


Presidential Approval in the first Year
90
Kennedy
80

70
Carter
60
Obama
50

40 Clinton

30
First 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Month
Note: This graph was composed using Gallup presidential approval data beginning the first month a president took office. When
multiple surveys were conducted in a single month, the last survey of the month was used.
Source: The Gallup Organization, latest that of December 2009.

Obama in Office Compared to Recent Predecessors


100 Presidential Approval in the first 12 Months

90

80 George W. Bush
George H. W. Bush
70
Obama
60

50
Clinton
40

30
First 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Month

Note: This graph was composed using Gallup presidential approval data beginning the first month a president took office. When
multiple surveys were conducted in a single month, the last survey of the month was used.
Source: The Gallup Organization, latest that of December 2009.

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President Obama and Other Wartime Presidents
We are indebted to Gary Langer, ABC’s ace polling analyst, for the idea for the chart below showing how wartime
presidents fare.

President Obama and Other Wartime Presidents


80
70
60 Nixon

50
40 Johnson George W. Bush
30
20
10
Obama average, January–early December = 58%
0
First 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th
Year
Note: This graph was composed using yearly averages of presidential approval ratings.
Source: The Gallup Organization, latest that of December 2009.

Afghanistan And Broader


Q: As you may know, Barack Obama announced that an additional
Questions about
30,000 U.S. troops will be sent to Afghanistan in the coming months. Military Standing
Do you . . . ?
Approve of sending additional Q: In the future . . . .
troops to Afghanistan U.S. policies should try
National 51% to keep it so America
Democrats 42 is the only military
Republicans 68 superpower 57%
Independents 48 It would be acceptable
Source: CBS News/New York Times, latest that of December 2009.
if China, another country,
or the European Union
became as militarily
Q: What is your impression of how . . . ?
powerful as the U.S. 29
December March Source: Pew Research Center in association
The war in Afghanistan with the Council on Foreign Relations,
is going well for the October–November 2009.
United States right now 30% 33%
Badly 60 57
Source: CBS News/New York Times, latest that of December 2009.

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Terror Tactics
Q: So far, there has not been another terrorist attack in America since 2001. Is this . . . ?
There has not been another terrorist attack in America since 9/11 mostly because
The government is doing a good job protecting the country 44%
America is inherently a difficult target for terrorists 11
America has been lucky so far 35
Source: Pew Research Center with the Council on Foreign Relations, October–November 2009.

President Obama’s Approval By Key Groups


Q: Do you . . . ?
December January
Approve of the job Barack
Obama is doing as President 50% 67%

Responses of:
Republicans 17 41
Democrats 82 88
Independents 46 62

Whites 40 63
Blacks 89 86
Hispanics 69 74

18–29 year olds 59 75


30–49 year olds 48 68
50–64 year olds 48 63
65+ 46 62

High school diploma or less 51 66


Some college 46 65
College graduate only 47 69
Post graduate 57 70

Men 48 64
Women 51 69
Note: Data are from the Gallup’s daily tracking, aggregated weekly. The December survey was taken from November 30–December 6, 2009.
The January survey was taken from January 19–25, 2009.
Source: The Gallup Organization, latest that of December 2009.

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Major Stories Throughout the Year
Q: Did you follow . . . closely?

60
Followed Reports about the Condition
55 of the U.S. Economy closely

50

45

40
Health Care Reform
35 Swine Flu
and Vaccine
30

25
Troops to Afghanistan
20

15

10
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

Source: Pew Research Center, latest that of November 2009.

Young Political Participation


Extrapolating from exit poll results, our colleague Michael Barone reported that young voter turnout this year was down
two-thirds in the New Jersey gubernatorial race and three-quarters in Virginia’s contest over 2008 turnout. Turnout in
off-year elections is usually down, but drops of this magnitude are significant. Harvard’s Institute of Politics tells us that
in terms of political activity, young people in college are similar to the larger group of 18–29 year olds. College students
were more likely to be active online.
Q: Please indicate below, any of the ways in which you supported your preferred candidate . . .
18–29 year olds Enrolled in a 4-Year College
Spoke to/tried to persuade friends
Obama supporters 55% 62%
McCain supporters 53 56
Participated online (Facebook, blogs, etc)
Obama supporters 30 47
McCain supporters 32 41
Volunteered time
Obama supporters 22 26
McCain supporters 13 23
Donated money
Obama supporters 16 21
McCain supporters 10 19
Source: Harvard Institute for Politics, December 2009.

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Health Care Reform: The Latest
Q: Would you advise your member of Congress . . . ? (Gallup)
Q: Overall, given what you know about them, would you say . . . ? (ABC News/Post)
Q: As of right now, do you generally . . . ? (Pew)
—————Gallup——————— ———ABC News/Post——— ————Pew————
Support/Lean Oppose/Lean Support Oppose Favor Oppose
December 46% 48% 44% 51% 35% 48%
November 44 49 48 49 42 39
October 51 41 45 48 34 47
September 50 47 46 48 42 44
Note: The Gallup poll asked about advising your member of Congress “to vote for or against a health care bill this year, or do you not have an
opinion.” The ABC News/Washington Post poll asked about “the proposed changes to health care system being developed by Congress and
the Obama administration.” The Pew poll asked about whether you “favor or generally oppose the health care proposals being discussed in
Congress.” The survey dates for the Pew poll labeled “October” were September 30–October 4.
Source: The Gallup Organization, latest that of December 2009. ABC News/Washington Post, latest that of December 2009. The Pew
Research Center, latest that of December 2009.

Poll Potpourri

Friendly to Religion?
Q: As I name some groups, please tell me whether you feel each one is generally . . .
Friendly to religion Unfriendly
48% The Republican Party 12%
37 The Obama administration 17
29 The Democratic Party 22
14 News reporters/news media 35
12 Scientists 35
11 Hollywood 47
Note: Hollywood category reads “Hollywood and the makers of movies and TV entertainment shows.”
Source: Pew Research Center and Pew Forum on Religion, August 2009.

Down on Tiger Amen


Q: Do you . . . ? Q: Which of the top stories asked about . . . ?
Have a favorable opinion of Tiger Woods Received too much coverage
2005 85% News about Tiger Woods car accident 66%
December (early) 2009 60 News about the duo at the White
December (late) 2009 42 House dinner 44
Source: The 2005 poll was conducted by The Gallup Organiza- Source: The Pew Research Center, December 2009.
tion. The early December poll was conducted by CNN/Opinion
Research Corporation. The late December poll was conducted by
ABC/Washington Post.

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Lou Dobbs 2012? Aliens before Peace
Q: For each, please tell me how you feel about them in Q: Which one of the following do you think . . . ?
their current roles—are you . . . ?
Will happen first
Lou Dobbs Cure for cancer found 40%
Favorable 27% End of dependence on oil 27
Unfavorable 23 Signs of life in outer space 12
Source: Bloomberg News, December 2009. Peace in Middle East 8
None will ever happen 7
Source: CBS News for 60 Minutes/Vanity Fair, October 2009.

Party Crashers
Q: Have you . . . ? Weight Watching
Ever crashed a party Attitudes on whether Americans would like to lose
Yes 17% weight or stay at their present weight have almost
No 82 flipped since Gallup asked about it in 1951.
Source: Fox News/Opinion Dynamics, December 2009.
Q: Would you like to . . . ?
2009 1951
Lose weight 55% 31%
Put on weight 7 17
Stay at present weight 37 50
More Rushmore Source: The Gallup Organization, latest that of November 2009.
Q: If you could add a president to Mount Rushmore,
which one of these would you pick . . . ?
Would add to Mount Rushmore
John F. Kennedy 29%
What Holiday Party?
Ronald Reagan 20 Q: Which one of the following are you most likely to
Franklin Roosevelt 18 do at your company holiday party this year?
Barack Obama 16 What holiday party? 37%
Just show my face 20
Dwight Eisenhower 6
Forget someone’s name 10
Andrew Jackson 2 Take a picture with the boss 7
Lyndon Johnson * Drink way too much 5
Note: * equals less than 1 percent. Kiss a coworker 2
Source: CBS News for 60 Minutes/Vanity Fair, November 2009. Source: CBS News for 60 Minutes/Vanity Fair, November 2009.

5
The editors of the Political Report wish you a happy New Year.

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