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BHATT
Fundamentals of International Finance, B.B.A. ITM (4th Year) 2010‐2011, SEMCOM
UNIT 3 – Foreign Exchange Dealings and Risk Management
Foreign Exchange Markets
Foreign Exchange Dealings
Determinants and Select Theories of Exchange Rates
Foreign Exchange Risk Management
‐ External Techniques
‐ Internal Techniques
Foreign Exchange Markets
With the growing tendency of firms to set up their businesses across the world to cater to foreign markets as well as
increased globalization and technological advances, the international financial markets have also emerged, grown
and evolved to flexibly and conveniently satiate the capital requirements in various parts of the world.
Moreover, most of the countries have their own different currencies and settlement policies for business
transactions which are decided domestically as well as influenced by international factors. Being so, it is imperative
for finance managers to understand the processes and methods of dealing in foreign exchange markets.
Foreign exchange markets deal with a large volume of funds as well as a large number of currencies of different
countries. Therefore, they are not only global markets but also the world’s largest financial markets in terms of
volume and turnover. Major financial centres like Tokyo, New York, London, Singapore, Sydney, Frankfurt, etc have
become the nerve centres of foreign exchange activity.
Apart from foreign exchange markets, large commercial and investment banks as well as central banks of different
countries also have a very significant role to play in the FE markets. In general, business firms do not operate on
their own; they normally buy and sell currencies through commercial banks or brokers. Occasionally, commercial
banks engage the services of individual brokers to not to reveal their identity in business deals of big companies. This
is a precautionary measure to apprehend the influence of their identity on the short term quotes.
The individual brokers, investment bankers, fund managers and commercial & investment banks are primarily in the
FE markets for commercial purpose, whether they deal on their own account or for their clients, while the role of
central banks is of regulatory nature. The central bank intervenes in the FE market to regulate the volatility of FE
rates.
The central bank intends to maintain the exchange rate of the domestic country in tune with the requirements of
the national economy as well as Government policies of various ministries like Ministry of Finance, Ministry of
Export‐Import, Ministry of International Trade, Foreign Affairs Ministry, etc. The intention is to avoid sudden
appreciation or depreciation of the domestic currency and to keep it in accordance with the domestic economy.
Most of the trading in FE markets happen in the major currencies (hard currencies) like USD, CHF, GBP, JPY, EUR,
AUD, HKD, CAD, SGD, etc. This is because the major currencies are fully convertible. There is an active market for
these currencies in terms of the presence of a large number of buyers and sellers as well as the volume of trade.
FE dealings usually take place through phone calls, telex, fax or nowadays even on the internet. Such technological
advancements have removed the geographical barriers as well as facilitated time saving and cost effective
transactions apart from providing the flexibility and facility to undertake business even in developing and upcoming
economies of the world.
DHRUPAD N. BHATT
Fundamentals of International Finance, B.B.A. ITM (4th Year) 2010‐2011, SEMCOM
Foreign Exchange Dealings
Foreign exchange dealings refer to the various types of exchange rates (spot, forward and cross), types of quotations
(direct and indirect) as well as the types of processes (spreads) and transactions (arbitrage) in the foreign exchange
markets.
Different countries have different currencies ‐ which have different values which are usually determined by the FE
markets based on the influence and impact of various domestic and international factors. Evidently, there is a need
for rules for currency conversions for global business and investments. The rate of conversion is termed as exchange
rate – the price / value of one currency expressed in terms of the price / value of another currency.
For e.g. a rate of Rs 45.15 per US $ implies that one USD costs INR 45.15
Conversely, one INR costs USD 0.022148
Therefore, there are two different types of quotes; both of which reflect the same exchange / conversion rate and
are reciprocal to each other. Direct Quote INR 45.15 = USD 1 Indirect Quote USD 0.022148 = INR 1
A foreign exchange quotation can either be direct or indirect. Direct quote is expressed such that it reflects the
exchange rate of a specified number of domestic currency v/s one unit of foreign currency. Indirect quote is
expressed such that it reflects the exchange rate of a specified number of foreign currency v/s one unit of local
currency.
Direct quotes are also known as European quotations and Indirect quotes are known as American quotations.
Usually direct quotes are easier to comprehend and hence are followed by a large number of countries including
India.
The quotations explained above are single quotes / rates. In practice, the dealers quote two way rates – one to buy
the foreign currency (bid rate) and another to sell the foreign currency (ask rate). Since dealers are in the markets
for commercial purpose, the rates are obviously not the same.
The dealer will buy the foreign currency at a lower rate and sell the currency at a higher rate. Therefore, the bid rate
is mostly lower than the ask rate. An important point to remember is that the quotations are always with respect to
the dealer. By convention, the buying rate follows the selling rate.
For e.g. a quotation of GBP 1 = INR 69.15 / 69.95 implies that the dealer is prepared to buy GBP at INR 69.15 and sell
the same at INR 69.95. Quotations in practice are usually made for up to four decimal points for most of the
currencies.
Spread is the difference between the ask price and the bid price. The spread is affected by a number of factors like
the currencies involved, the volume of business, market sentiments, information, rumours, etc. in case the currency
involved is subject to higher volatility, the dealer will like to have a higher spread in the quotation to compensate for
the higher risk assumed by him.
Spread to a dealer is akin to the gross profit of a business firm. Although prima facie, the spread appears to be very
low, the volume of the business involved is mostly substantial which makes it attractive for the dealer to remain in
the business.
All the terms discussed above are based on spot and forward rates. Therefore it is vital to distinguish between spot
and forward rates. Spot rates are applicable to the purchase and sale of foreign exchange on immediate delivery
basis and forward rates are applicable for the delivery of foreign exchange at a future date.
DHRUPAD N. BHATT
Fundamentals of International Finance, B.B.A. ITM (4th Year) 2010‐2011, SEMCOM
Although in spot rate the term ‘immediate’ is used which conveys a message of instant delivery, in practice, delivery
actually takes place within two days. The spot rate is the rate of the day on which the transaction has taken place,
though the execution of the transaction occurs within a maximum of two days.
Companies dealing in forward rates have two options.
I) Arrange for the payments / receivables on the maturity date at the prevailing spot rate
II) However, companies may wish to avoid uncertainty of the exchange rates. In such cases, they can negotiate a
forward rate which is decided at the time of the agreement. Regardless of the prevailing spot rate on the maturity
date, the requisite transaction will go through. Forward rates are usually negotiated for a period of 1, 3, 6 and 9
months. However these can be extended depending on the transacting parties as well as the type of industry and
business sector.
Forward rate premium – foreign currency is at premium when its forward rate is higher than spot rate
P = F – S/ S x 12 / n
Forward rate discount – foreign currency is at discount when its forward rate is lower than spot rate
D = S – F/ S x 12 / n
Cross rates When a direct quote of the home currency or any other currency as desired by the dealer / firm / bank is
unavailable in the FE market, it is computed with the help of exchange quotes of other pairs of currencies, which is
known as cross rates. Thus cross rates facilitate to derive / determine exchange rates (both spot and forward) with
respect to currencies that normally lack availability of direct quotes.
The USD being the most actively traded currency in the world – not only in the FE markets but also in the financial
markets and the commodity markets, it is convenient to quote exchange rates of most currencies in relation to USD.
As most of the currencies use USD as the benchmark / intermediate, the cross rate between two currencies can be
determined by using another currency.
Arbitrage is the act of buying currency in one market at a lower price and selling it in another market at a higher
price resulting in profit for the dealer as well as equilibrium in exchange rates of different countries. The equilibrium
is restored in the market because it does not allow the same currency to have varying rates in different FE markets
on a sustainable basis.
Geographical arbitrage consists of buying currency from a FE market where it is cheaper and selling it in another FE
market where it is costlier. The distance between the markets are irrelevant as transactions can take place through
various means of modern communications channels.
Triangular arbitrage takes place when there are three currencies involved in three markets. It is also known as three
point arbitrage.
Covered interest arbitrage refers to the comparison being made in the difference between the forward rate and the
spot rate (premium or discount) of currencies – that is the interest rate differentials.
Determinants and Select theories of Exchange Rates
The exchange rate values of some currencies are significantly higher than those of others. This is due to several
political and economic factors that have a marked bearing on the determination of exchange rates of various
currencies.
The major factors / theories that account for variation in exchange rates of currencies of different countries are:
i) Inflation rates
DHRUPAD N. BHATT
Fundamentals of International Finance, B.B.A. ITM (4th Year) 2010‐2011, SEMCOM
ii) Interest rates
iii) Balance of payment position
iv) Volume of international reserves
v) Level of activity and employment.
These are detailed as under.
i) Inflation rates – differences in inflation rates between two countries is considered as the most important factor
which explains the variation in exchange rates of two countries. In case domestic inflation rate is higher than foreign
inflation rate (prices of domestic goods are rising faster than the prices of foreign goods), it leads to more demand of
foreign goods (imports). This leads to more demand for foreign exchange to pay for the imports and thereby making
foreign exchange more costly and the domestic currency to be devalued / depreciated.
In contrast a lower domestic inflation will make the domestic goods relatively cheaper and hence the exports will
increase. This augments the supply of foreign exchange resulting in appreciation of the domestic currency. In
technical terms, the floating exchange rates are likely to vary in accordance with differing inflation rates in two
countries. The PPP theory provides the rationale for differences in exchange rates based on inflation rates between
two countries.
ii) Interest rates – constitute the second major factor in determining exchange rates. For instance, if interest rates
are higher in the USA as compared to Japan, the Japanese funds are likely to be attracted to the US rather than
investing in Japan itself. This leads to higher demand for USD in Japan and will depreciate the JPY.
Thus the interest rate differentials in two countries are likely to have a decisive influence on their exchange rates.
The economic premise of determining future forward rates of different currencies based on different interest rates
is derived from the IRP theory. The theory states that the premium or discount of one currency in relation to
another should reflect the interest rate differentials between the two currencies.
iii) Balance of payment position – the structure of BoP of a country has a major impact on its exchange rate. If the
country has major deficits, the currency is likely to be under pressure and depreciated as deficits require payments
in foreign currency.
In case of fixed exchange rates, persistent deficit mounts both internal and external pressures on the monetary
authority to devalue the currency. Devaluation is expected to help in reducing the imports and increase exports. In
the floating exchange rate system, persistent and big deficits are forewarning signals of depreciation of the
concerned country’s currency.
In contrast, if the BoP is favourable, the value of the currency is likely to appreciate.
iv) Volume of international reserves / foreign exchange – the level of foreign exchange reserves (including gold) that
the Central Bank of the country or the monetary authority possesses also has an impact on the currency exchange
rates. In case the monetary authority feels that its currency is depreciating and there are economic reasons to
stabilize it, it may intervene in the market by selling foreign exchange from the reserves. In case of inadequate
reserves, the monetary authority may find itself constrained to provide support to its currency.
v) Level of activity and employment – there is likely to be a positive impact due to higher level of economic activity
as well as better employment / employability of the domestic population. The low level of activity and less
employment increase the probability of depreciation of its currency. In contrast, growing economies have a higher
level of economic activities and good employment potential which thereby appreciate the domestic currency.
To summarize, all the above factors taken together have their impact on exchange rates. However, the individual
impact of each factor is likely to be different from the collective impact of all the factors dynamically interacting and
impacting the markets and the foreign exchange consistently.
DHRUPAD N. BHATT
Fundamentals of International Finance, B.B.A. ITM (4th Year) 2010‐2011, SEMCOM
Foreign Exchange Risk Management
FERM constitutes an integral part of all major corporate decisions to manage foreign exchange exposure, given the
global business scenario in which business firms (in particular international companies and MNCs) operate.
Therefore it is imperative that these firms are aware of the various foreign exchange risks and exposures arising of
such international operations.
International business operations encounter three types of exposure:
(i) Transaction exposure
(ii) Translation exposure and
(iii) Economic exposure
Transaction exposure involves gains / losses arising out of the various types of transactions that require settlement
in a foreign currency.
Translation exposure results from the need to translate foreign currency assets / liabilities into the local currency
during financial year end to justify the final accounts.
Economic exposure implies change in the value of a company that accompanies an unanticipated change in
exchange rates.
To overcome such exposures and the inherent risks arising out of these exposures as well as other operational
factors of the respective company, business sector and industry, there are different techniques of FERM. FERM is
the process through which finance managers try to eliminate, reduce or overcome the adverse impact of
unfavourable changes in the foreign exchange rates to a tolerable level. The techniques of FERM can be classified as
External and Internal. These are detailed as follows.
FERM – External Techniques
There are four major external techniques of FERM which are also known as derivatives. Derivatives are classified as
(a) Forward Contracts
(b) Currency Futures
(c) Currency Options
(d) Swaps
These are explained as under.
(a) Forward Contracts – are widely used by firms to hedge against volatile /adverse exchange rates. Firms enter into
a forward contract (with authorized dealers) to buy or sell foreign currency at a specific future date and a
predetermined exchange rate – known as forward rate. A typical forward contract constitutes and specifies contract
amount, forward exchange rate, parties to the contract, the specified date of delivery, foreign currencies involved
and terms and conditions.
(b) Currency Futures – are closely related to forward contracts and are popularly known as futures contracts. A
futures contract is a standardized agreement to buy or sell a pre‐specified amount of foreign currency at some
future date. Usually only the major currencies are traded in the futures markets and the two parties deal via a
clearing house at an organized exchange.
Difference between Forwards and Futures
Difference Forwards Futures
Size of Contracts Decided by the buyer and seller Standardised in each contract
Price of contract Remains fixed till maturity Changes daily
DHRUPAD N. BHATT
Fundamentals of International Finance, B.B.A. ITM (4th Year) 2010‐2011, SEMCOM
Mark to market Not done Marked to market every day
Margin No margin required Margins are to be paid by both buyers
and sellers
Counterparty risk Present Not present
No. of contracts Unlimited Limited between 4 to 12
in a year
Hedging Tailor made contracts for specific Heading is by nearest month and
date and quantity – therefore perfect quantity contracts – perfect hedging not
hedging is possible possible
Liquidity No ready liquidity Highly liquid
Nature of market Over the counter Exchange traded
Mode of delivery Specifically decided. Most of the Standardised. Most of the contracts are
contracts result in delivery cash settled.
(c) Currency Options – forward and futures contracts provide a hedge to the firms against adverse currency
movements. However, they deprive the firms of a chance to avail the benefits that may accrue due to favourable
movements in the exchange rates. This limitation is the reason for the emergence of currency options – which
provides its holders the right but not the obligation to buy / sell a specified amount of a foreign currency at a
specified rate to a specific period.
Call option – gives the holder the right to buy (call) a specific currency at a specified price on a specific maturity date
or within a given period of time. However, the holder is not under the obligation to do so. Put option – gives the
right but not the obligation to sell (put) a specified amount of currency at a predetermined price up‐to a specific
date.
Options are usually dealt with in all the major currencies that are actively traded OTC.
The buyer (holder) of the option pays an option price (premium) on entering the contract with the seller (writer) of
the option.
The predetermined price at which the holder can exercise his rights to buy / sell is called the strike / exercise price.
When an option can be exercised only on the maturity date, it is called a European option while if the option can be
exercised on any date up‐to maturity, it is called an American option.
The option is said to be in‐money if its immediate exercise yields a positive value to the holder and at‐money if the
strike price is equal to the spot money. When the option does not have a positive value for the buyer or the seller, it
is said to be out of money.
(d) Swaps – are exchange / swap of debt obligations (interest and / or principal) between two parties. Currency
swaps are arranged through a bank. Swaps are not financing instruments; rather they are a means of making
specified payments in foreign currency. Swaps are of two types: interest swaps and currency swaps.
Interest swaps involve exchange of interest obligations between two parties. Currency swaps involve exchange of
debt obligation denominated in different currencies.
Money market operations ‐ Apart from derivatives, foreign exchange risk can be hedged through money market
operations. The steps involved are:
Determine the amount of foreign currency required to be paid on a specified date
Ascertain the spot exchange rate from an authorized dealer
Borrow home currency from money market such that the required foreign currency sums are available on
specified date
Use the borrowed funds to buy foreign currency from the spot market
Invest the same to yield interest in the desired foreign currency
DHRUPAD N. BHATT
Fundamentals of International Finance, B.B.A. ITM (4th Year) 2010‐2011, SEMCOM
These steps enable the firm to know the precise amount required to make payments of foreign currency on the date
of maturity.
FERM – Internal Techniques
The internal techniques are appropriately designated as such because these techniques can be independently used
by the firms without the assistance of external agencies. The important FERM – internal techniques are
(a) Leading and Lagging
(b) Invoicing / Billing in desired currency
(c) Indexation Clauses
(d) Sharing risk
(e) Shifting the manufacturing base
(f) Netting
(g) Re‐invoicing centre
(a) Leading and Lagging – leading implies collection of foreign currency payments from designated debtors
expeditiously before the due date and also making payments to creditors before the maturity date. Lagging implies
delaying receipts from foreign currency designated receivables or delaying foreign currency payables whose
currencies are likely to depreciate / devalue.
(b) Invoicing / Billing in desired currency – invoicing sales and purchases in the home currency is an ideal method of
hedging foreign currency risk as it enables the firm to know the precise amount it is likely to receive from sales or
the exact amount payable on its foreign transactions. However this method is not operationally feasible especially
for companies which do not have regular demand or products having low price elasticity.
(c) Indexation clauses – refer to clauses of terms and conditions of the contract and agreements between the two
parties. The type of clauses and its benefit will be based on the bargaining power of either of the two parties. It may
also relate to stipulated changes in exchange rates beyond which the prices can be adjusted.
(d) Sharing risk – this technique is operationally more feasible as it allows for sharing the risk based on
predetermined proportions rather than one of the party bearing the entire risk. This technique requires that the two
parties are highly integrated operationally or have been trading together since a long time.
(e) Shifting the manufacturing base – is easier said than done. However there have been instances when the
manufacturing / service base have been shifted to better accommodate and overcome the foreign exchange risks
and exposures. E.g. Textile manufacturing, HSBC, Outsourcing, Mining
(f) Netting – it may not be uncommon for international companies to have mutual trading among themselves. The
foreign exchange risk is substantially reduced if receivables and payables between companies are settled on the net
balance basis (known as netting), instead of two way flow of receiving and paying money. Netting can be bi‐lateral
or multi‐lateral. However it is required that the maturity dates and the foreign currency involved are same for ease
of transactions.
(g) Re‐invoicing centre – in MNCs is similar to clearing houses in banks. Usually these are subsidiary of parent
company located in countries where exchange regulations, convertibility, repatriation are the least constraining.
Moreover, being a major centre of receivables and payables for the company, such centres help in reducing the
hedging costs due to the volume of foreign currency involved.