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INDIA & GLOBALISATION

FINANCIAL TIMES SPECIAL REPORT | Thursday January 27 2011


www.ft.com/india­2011 | twitter.com/ftreports

Strong growth Inside

yet to improve IT outsourcing

lives of the poor


India is watching for
signs of protectionism
among partners Page 2
The economy
Ascent to double­digit
World leaders are democracy is paralysed by dis- emerging and identified the growth is new territory
sent, some of its business lead- relationship with New Delhi as Page 2
keen to recognise the ers distrusted for oligarch-like one of the defining partnerships
success of a rising practices. in the 21st century. The promise
The country’s ability to trans- of access to US technology and Retail
power. For most form the lives of many of its an endorsement of a future per- Powerful middlemen
Indians, however, the 1.2bn people is uncertain. manent seat on a reformed
shut foreign groups out
Instead, the poor are faced with United Nations Security Council
picture is not so rosy, rising food prices and undimin- gave substance to warm words. of the shops Page 2
says James Lamont ished worries about food and Similar praise was doled out
energy security. by four other big powers that
Guest column

I
ndia has never looked so Beyond India’s borders, the seek a closer partnership.
good, nor so bad. In the futures of insurgency wracked Within six months, David Cam- Financing is key to
eyes of global leaders and Pakistan and Afghanistan weigh eron, the UK prime minister, long­term potential.
investors, the country is heavily as risks; while the Nicolas Sarkozy, the French
“coming of age” A procession of security establishment views president, Dmitry Medvedev, Eswar Prasad Page 3
statesmen has acclaimed India neighbouring China, with whom the Russian prime minister and
as a responsible, rising power,
inviting it to take a seat at the
trade has boomed to $60bn a
year, as far more of a menace
Wen Jiabao, China’s president,
alighted in Delhi. Their visits
Nuclear power
top table of world affairs. redefined the country’s global Liability legislation sends
An economic growth rate of
India is confronted standing, long due for a reap- foreign suppliers into a
8.5 per cent this year puts India praisal after the end of the cold
spin Page 3
firmly alongside China as one of with a debilitating war, and lent support for India
the world’s fastest growing to take a greater role in the
large economies. crisis of governance world’s multilateral institutions. Cars
Domestic consumption in an
awakening market of 1.2bn peo-
with confidence at a The country’s economic man-
agement has also received high
A model state for
ple, strikes many as a sure bet low ebb after a tide of praise. Its swift bounce back manufacturing Page 3
for the next 40 years, with from the global financial crisis
corruption scandals
opportunities in infrastructure, is the toast of economists. Textiles
retail and education. Pranab Mukherjee, the fi-
Its leading companies, particu- than a partner. nance minister, has laid out a Creative strategies
larly in the IT outsourcing, Instead, India is looking more convincing path to fiscal consol- revive ragtrade riches in
automotive and pharmaceutical to the west, as it deepens its idation after opening the taps of new markets Page 4
sectors, continue to expand embrace of a free-market econ- public spending.
their global footprint. The Tata omy, and international markets. Duvurri Subbarao, the gover- Barack Obama with Manmohan Singh: a “defining partnership of the 21st century”
Group alone is the largest man- The high water mark over the nor of the Reserve Bank, has Financing
ufacturing employer in the UK. past year was undoubtedly the maintained an agile balance development and employment governance travails as “bumps the value of the previous year. Global exposure opens
Yet, seen from within, India is visit of Barack Obama, the US between growth and inflation, opportunity. “In the past two in the road” rather than any- More outbound acquisitions better opportunities for
confronted with a debilitating president. India’s top diplomats while sidestepping currency quarters, our growth rate has thing calamitous. were made last year than
crisis of governance and an give Mr Obama high praise for intervention and capital con- been 8.9 per cent. From next Such confidence has spurred a inbound, reflecting the increas- raising cash Page 4
overwhelming challenge to “getting the political messaging trols in the face of strong year onwards we will be able to spree of overseas mergers and ingly global nature of Indian
improve the lives of the largest
concentration of poor people in
right” and taking forward a new
relationship forged by his prede-
inflows. The RBI has openly
expressed fears about its ability
grow at a rate between 9 and 10
per cent,” he says.
acquisitions, including shale gas
assets in the US, UK football
companies. Overall M&A activ-
ity was estimated at about
Phamaceuticals
the world. cessor George W. Bush with the to tame inflation and the need His optimism is shared by clubs and business processing $45bn by Grant Thornton, the Drug companies change
Confidence in the state and transformative recognition of to attract more foreign direct many business leaders. Mukesh operations in Latin America. auditing group, for the first 11 their tune Page 4
business is at low ebb after a India’s nuclear programme. investment. Ambani, the billionaire chair- Last year, cross border M&A months of the year.
wave of high-profile corruption Mr Obama described the coun- Manmohan Singh, the prime man of Reliance Industries, saw a strong revival; deals in
scandals. The world’s largest try as “emerged” rather than minister, calls it vital for social describes some of New Delhi’s and out of India were five times Continued on Page 2
2 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES THURSDAY JANUARY 27 2011

India & Globalisation

Thick skins shrug off protectionist rhetoric Growth


inevitable, as the US struggled outsourcing and its largest mar- to greater protectionist threats. “India is the fastest growing economy more attractive.
fails to
Outsourcing
James Lamont on
with high rates of unemploy-
ment in the downturn. In Mr
Schumer’s words, chop shops
ket, the US.
The rhetoric has hardened as
the outlook for the US economy
Some, such as Pramod Bhasin,
the chief executive of Genpact,
the business-processing com-
source of foreign direct invest-
ment in the US. This investment
is creating, saving or supporting
Companies increasingly iden-
tify opportunity in non-English-
speaking markets, from China
improve
the industry’s role
in creating US jobs
“outsourced good, high-paying
American technology jobs to
lower wage, temporary immi-
has worsened. US President
Barack Obama, in one address,
said the challenge for the US
pany, say fast growing Indian
companies need to show greater
sensitivity to the difficulties US
tens of thousands of jobs in the
US,” says Nirupama Rao, the
foreign secretary.
to Latin America.
N. Chandrasekhar, the chief
executive of TCS, expects reve-
lives
grant workers”. was to make sure the creation of clients are facing and respond In spite of the fears, the IT nues from Latin America to be
His remarks were a slur on new-economy jobs was not dom- by creating more jobs there. outsourcing industry has worth as much as $1bn in the Continued from Page 1
One of the most striking blows one of the most globalised parts inated by India and China. Part The Indian government, shrugged off dire predictions next three to five years, up from
to India’s international business of the Indian economy. IT out- of that challenge is being met meanwhile, argues that this is that it might suffer badly from the current $300m. Outward investment has
image over the past year was sourcing, centred on the south- with higher costs for foreign the downturn in western mar- “We entered Latin America in totalled as much as $80bn over
landed by “Chuck” Schumer, ern city of Bangalore, has grown companies. kets in the wake of the 2008 late 2002. By now, we have a the past decade. The RBI esti-
the US senator. rapidly over the past 30 years to A move by Washington to Between 2004 financial crisis. Leading IT com- good number of clients and criti- mates that investments by
Mr Schumer, a respected legis- earn nearly $60bn in export rev- raise the cost of visas for Indi- and 2009, Indian panies are expanding, announc- cal mass. We have 8,000 people domestic companies in overseas
lator from New York and a sen- enues a year. A sector that ans working in the US drew a ing ambitious hiring plans, and we have revenues of joint ventures and wholly
ior Democratic party politician, miraculously escaped govern- formal protest by New Delhi. companies made 372 strong earnings and entries into $300m,” he says. owned subsidiaries totalled
dared to call Infosys, one of the
darlings of India’s highly suc-
ment intervention, it symbolises
India’s global potential and the
Likewise, newly passed legisla-
tion to tap higher visa fees to
acquisitions in the US new markets.
Nasscom, India’s bullish out-
Others are following suit.
Tech Mahindra, the joint ven-
$10.3bn in 2009-10.
India, meanwhile, is one of
cessful IT outsourcing industry, technical ingenuity of its versa- pay for health compensation has worth about $21bn sourcing industry association, ture between the Mahindra the most promising destinations
a “chop-shop”. tile young people. raised hackles. estimates that the sector’s industrial group and BT, the UK for foreign direct investment.
The unflattering side-swipe, Its leaders have thick skins. Anand Sharma, India’s com- export revenues last year were telecoms group, is planning a Ministers talk ambitiously of
with its connotation of under- Narayana Murthy, the founder merce minister, calls new laws already happening. Ahead of Mr about $50bn. It forecasts that big expansion in Latin America. attracting investment of
world repackaging, caused wide- of Infosys, brushed the senator’s increasing the fee for H1B and Obama’s visit to Delhi in these will rise 15 per cent this Aegis, the business-processing $1,000bn into infrastructure
spread indignation and pricked comments aside, saying he was L-1 visas, commonly used by November, it emphasised heav- year to $57bn and that, within a arm of the Essar Group, has within five years. In the first 10
one of India’s worst fears – pro- out of touch and misunderstood India’s IT outsourcing compa- ily the investment of Indian decade, revenues could top acquired Actionline in Argen- months of 2010, India attracted
tectionism to shut out some of the contribution and sophistica- nies to bring talent into the US, companies in the US, and the $225bn. tina to develop its Spanish- $78bn in FDI.
its best performing IT and phar- tion of India’s IT services. “highly discriminatory” and jobs they create. A study by the Part of the industry’s contin- speaking capabilities. This is well below what many
maceuticals companies from With growth fragile in many damaging to his country’s com- University of Maryland shows ued success is down to a highly Such a flurry of activity might analysts believe could be
prized western markets. western economies, India has petitiveness. that between 2004 and 2009 globalised business model and lead Mr Schumer to reflect that achieved if it freed up restric-
A debate about the value of been watchful for protectionism Many senior Indian business Indian companies made 372 new markets. The downturn Indian companies are doing tions on FDI and brought
India’s outsourcers to their among its trading partners. The people have been surprised that acquisitions in the US worth has made emerging markets much more shopping than chop- greater speed and clarity to an
important clients in the US was greatest fears have centred on US politicians have not resorted about $21bn. and the fast growing domestic ping. often-stifling bureaucracy. In
the words of one senior Mum-
bai-based businessman, India is
growing “by default”, not
design.

High plaudits
The Congress party-led gov-
ernment faces mounting criti-
cism: for not proceeding with
more purpose with structural
reforms since its re-election in

tempered by
2009; for putting up with non-
performing ministers in eco-
nomic portfolios; and for allow-
ing legislation hostile to foreign
capital and profitmaking.
The stock response is that

inf lation fears process is as important as solid


outcome in an era of coalition
politics.
But pressure is intensifying,
as it wrestles with the twin evils
of corruption and inflation. Mr
economists believe their country Singh and Sonia Gandhi, the
The economy deserves. Congress party president, are
“India has weathered the crisis accused of drift in the face of
Strong growth is welcome, remarkably well, thanks in large part rising popular expectations to
but rising food prices to sound macroeconomic and financial
policies. Now, India’s growth is among
make administrative reforms
and deliver education and better
are causing concern, the highest in the world – making it a quality jobs to one of the young-
writes James Lamont driving force of the global recovery,”
Mr Strauss-Kahn said.
est nations in the world, with 70
per cent of the population under
Similar sentiments have been echoed

T
he plaudits have flooded in. by Robert Zoellick, president of the
Amartya Sen,
India is basking in wide praise World Bank, Barack Obama, US presi-
the Nobel
from the world’s leading econo- dent and David Cameron, the British
laureate, is
mists and policymakers for prime minister, along with India’s own
critical of
its recovery from the global financial economic leadership.
inadequate
crisis. Mr Strauss-Kahn, however, sounded
attention to
Asia’s third-largest economy has a cautionary note. He warned of the
malnourishment
swiftly righted itself, buoyed by strong dangers of some countries, including
domestic consumption. This year, India, pushing beyond their potential,
growth is forecast at 8.5 per cent. Man- and overheating their economies in the age of 35.
mohan Singh, the prime minister, pre- what is still an uncertain recovery. A spate of corruption scandals
dicts that the economy can stretch In a country of 1.2bn mostly poor surrounding the telecoms minis-
upwards of 9 per cent in the coming people, the balance is always a precari- try, hosting the Commonwealth
fiscal year. ous one, and the ascent to double-digit Games, property lenders and the
The country’s financial markets have growth is new territory for the policy military top brass, has rocked
swelled with confidence. By the end of establishment. confidence in the state. Several
last year, Sensex, the benchmark index Few disagree with the desirability of usually discreet eminent figures
on the Bombay Stock Exchange, had higher growth in an economy long have warned of a widespread
surged to new highs. All year, the mired in what was called the “Hindu governance deficit that the
Reserve Bank of India mulled what it rate” of growth. But with higher growth country can ill afford if it wants
might do to smooth the strong capital has come uncomfortably high inflation, to bring greater development.
flows flooding into the fastest growing some of the highest among the Group of At the same time, the govern-
large economy after China. 20 nations. Last month, the wholesale ment is struggling to tame stub-
Visitors from the US and Europe price index rose 8.4 per cent, some way Price perils: the government suffered a scare when the cost of onions trebled overnight, so it brought in relief supplies AFP bornly high inflation that spent
have been quick to remark on the off a target below 6 per cent. much of last year in double fig-
exuberance of the Indian market, in Some economists and bankers worry overall inflation is crossing 9 per cent,” for having toppled at least two govern- 50 basis points as early as this month. ures. The wholesale price index
stark contrast to their own. India is that India has leant too heavily on complains Rajiv Pratap Rudy, a BJP ments, once in 1980 and again in 1998. Rate increases over the coming year rose 8.4 per cent in December,
almost the land that the global reces- stimulus measures for too long. Earlier spokesman. “The prime minister and The onion scare was symptomatic of are forecast within a range from 75 despite an earlier pledge by Mr
sion forgot. this year, Stephen Roach, chairman of his government seem to be ‘tom-tom- the rough ride the Congress party gov- basis points to as much as 125 basis Singh to cut inflation to 6 per
One of the most emphatic endorse- Morgan Stanley Asia, said New Delhi ming’ the GDP growth, calling it good. ernment has in the months ahead if it points. cent by the end of the year.
ments has come from the International was overstimulating the economy with [But] what good is such a growth fails to tame prices against a backdrop India is at a thin edge of a wedge Crucial to India’s future, and
Monetary Fund. Dominique Strauss- public spending and monetary policy which keeps away the common man of rising commodity prices, unpredicta- shared by many of its neighbours. its global standing, is whether
Kahn, its managing director, said on a that was too loose. from his daily rations?” ble farm output and a reviving global “Asian economies remain on mone- higher growth is changing the
visit to New Delhi that India had trav- While Mr Singh, a respected develop- Mr Singh is politician enough to economy. tary steroids,” says Frederic Neumann, lives of the poor to reduce some
elled an enormous distance over the ment economist, has won praise from know the perils of high prices – partic- In spite of being one of the most co-head of Asian economic research at of the domestic risks, such as
past generation to become an “eco- the international community, he has ularly food prices – to electoral for- aggressive tighteners of monetary pol- HSBC, the banking group, “pumped up insurgencies, surrounding ine-
nomic superpower”. faced derision at home. The Hindu tunes. Last month, the government suf- icy last year, higher interests have had by low rates and plenty of foreign quality.
He also praised the Reserve Bank of nationalist opposition Bharatiya Janata fered a scare over the price of onions, a little impact on resurgent growth. liquidity. Overstimulation, in econom- Amartya Sen, the Nobel laure-
India for resisting intervention in cur- party has zeroed in on inflation as a staple of national cuisine, which tre- The RBI’s hawkishness is likely to ics as in life, usually has dire conse- ate and Harvard professor, and
rency markets and its moves to campaign issue, calling the prime min- bled overnight. So acute was the short- continue well into 2011. Already, some quences.” others are critical of an often
strengthen capital controls. ister “clueless” in the face of high age that relief supplies had to be economists believe the central bank “Central bankers need to worry singular focus on headline
India’s performance recommends it prices. rushed from Pakistan and China, and may raise the repo rate, at which the about rising inflation pressures, asset growth numbers, without giving
for a greater role in global economic “Food inflation is hitting the highest the government introduced anti-hoard- central bank lends to commercial bubbles and excessive investment. greater consideration of the
governance – a role that many Indian ever level in contemporary times while ing measures. Onion prices are famed banks and currently at 6.25 per cent, by Inflation is on everyone’s mind.” chronic undernourishment
stunting the growth of half the
country’s children. “Until the
number of malnourished chil-
dren and illiterate women has

Dramatic food price rises may


been reduced by 90 per cent,
there should be no horn blow-
ing,” says Jean-Pierre Lehmann,
founder of the Evian Group.
In coming years, wider distri-

help open doors to foreigners bution of India’s growing pros-


perity and shared benefits of
global integration are vital if
good is to outweigh the bad.

ing technical support alliances not,” says Raghav Gupta, presi- many companies were forced to
Retail with Indian retail companies. dent of Technopak Advisors, a close large numbers of their Contributors
But India’s Congress party led retail consultancy. “But in stores and pare back their
Amy Kazmin on the government has begun thinking terms of being able to predict, expansion plans while several
James Lamont
South Asia Bureau Chief
politically sensitive differently about the retail sec- ‘will they change it,’ I don’t small operators went bankrupt.
tor, driven by its concern about think anybody can predict it.” Today, organised retail still Amy Kazmin
issue of obtaining nearly two years of stubbornly Indian conglomerates, such as accounts for just 5 per cent of Market making: food price inflation is concentrating minds Bloomberg New Delhi Correspondent
investment persistent, double-digit food Reliance Industries, Bharti India’s estimated $435bn retail
James Fonantella­Khan
price inflation, which rose to an Enterprises, the Tata Group, industry, still mainly concen- researched “discussion paper” “Criminal waste of food
India Editor FT.com
all-time high of 18 per cent in RPG, the Aditya Birla Group, trated in big metropolises, and arguing that the country would occurs in India due to the lack
For Indian policymakers, the December. Godrej, and the retail-focused increasingly in the next layer of reap many benefits, including of integrated storage,” the news- Anjli Raval
opening up of multi-brand food Many members of the govern- Future Group, have all gamely so-called “tier two cities”. the development of appropriate paper argued. “As prices hugely New Delhi Correspondent
retailing to foreign participation ment appear to have come plunged into the food and gro- With their own domestic com- post-harvest, cold-chain infra- jump from farm gate to retail
has been one of the most diffi- round to the idea that foreign cery retailing business in the panies eyeing the huge opportu- structure, if foreign direct outlet, consumers reel even as Stephanie Gray
cult, politically sensitive issues direct investment in food retail- past few years. nities in India’s still nascent investment in retail was farmers get just a third of the Commissioning Editor
in 20 years of economic reforms. ing could help improve the effi- Yet even these companies are retail market, the US, and sev- allowed. Several cabinet minis- final price of their produce.” It
With a complex, highly frag- ciency of the back end of the not allowed to source fresh eral European governments, ters and big businesses have concluded, “if deep-pocketed big Steven Bird
Designer
mented retail sector involving food supply chain, reducing fruit, vegetables or grains have been pushing New Delhi to also expressed their cautious retail chains and corner shops
tens of millions of mom-and-pop spoilage and waste, thus easing directly from farmers, but must open up the sector. support. can coexist and prosper …. else- Andy Mears
shops, pushcart vendors, bazaar some pressure on prices. get them from middlemen who The first signs of a shifting With the price of onions hav- where in the world, they'll do so Picture Editor
stalls, and powerful middlemen Yet whether the government, often double as moneylenders to attitude came last February ing more than doubled in here as well”.
traders who link farmers to con- weakened by a series of corrup- farmers, add their mark-ups to when Pranab Mukherjee, the December – and other vegetable Given the mounting pressure For advertising details, contact:
sumers, Indian governments tion scandals, is ready to take a farm gate prices, but offer little finance minister, suggested in prices skyrocketing – public sen- on food prices, some Indian John McClure on:
have long spurned any talk of stand on opening the retail busi- by way of technical support to his budget speech that opening timent seems to be gradually media have speculated that Mr +65 6236 9508;
opening the food retailing sector ness to foreign direct invest- help boost productivity. the retail trade could “help in shifting too. The Times of India Mukherjee could announce an fax: +65 6236 9509;
to foreign companies, even as ment – which would spark a Indian companies have also bringing down the considerable made an impassioned plea in opening of the retail sector as e­mail: john.mcclure@ft.com
minority shareholders. fierce outcry from the powerful found the going in retail busi- difference between the farm January for opening the door to soon as February’s budget or your usual representative
International chains such as traders lobby – remains to be ness tougher than expected, due gate prices, wholesale prices FDI in the retail trade and relax- speech. But Mr Gupta says he
Walmart, Tesco and Carrefour, seen. to sky-high rents for sites, and a and retail prices”. ing controls on agricultural believes it will be “at least a few All FT Reports are available on
can only own and operate cash- “The government is clearly lack of experience in managing In July, the department of sales and marketing to allow months before anything hap- FT.com.
and-carry stores, limited to sell- convinced that they want to do the complex businesses. industrial policy and promotion companies to buy directly from pens”, given the still vehement Go to: ft.com/reports
ing to other businesses and forg- this, whereas earlier they were During the global downturn, issued a long, carefully farmers. opposition from traders.
FINANCIAL TIMES THURSDAY JANUARY 27 2011 ★ 3

India & Globalisation

A healthy financial system is essential for progress


the population is essential for economic and social costs of a especially for rectifying its and the ancillary benefits of vulnerability. Roping in banks
Guest Column distributing the fruits of banking system that is woefully inadequate physical greater competition. to help finance deficits by
ESWAR PRASAD growth more evenly. inefficient and narrow. infrastructure. To the government’s credit, forcing them to buy
Progress on financial reform Despite all the strictures they So, foreign capital is welcome financial reforms continued government bonds makes a bad
has been uneven and slowed by operate under, some but the question is whether the even during the crisis period. problem worse by imposing a
The Indian economy is at a the global crisis. Like many government-owned banks have financial system can absorb India has introduced currency huge cost on the banking
critical juncture in its growth other emerging markets, India managed to compete effectively, these funds effectively rather derivatives, interest rate system and crowding out
trajectory. It is benefiting from weathered the crisis far better holding their own against than just fuelling asset bubbles futures and even credit default lending to the private sector.
market-oriented reforms that than the advanced economies, domestic and foreign private and adding to macroeconomic swaps in a cautious manner Unless the government can
started in earnest 20 years ago. with only a modest dip in banks. It is time to cut these volatility. Controls to limit with tight regulations. tackle these problems, they will
Now, after a decade of blazing growth. This has spawned two banks loose from government surges in capital inflows are a The Reserve Bank of India erode India’s growth potential.
growth, the economy is at an dangerous notions. First, that it control and reduce barriers to seductive solution but they are has wisely resisted the The country’s red-hot
inflection point. Today’s policy is desirable to keep much of the entry of new private banks. largely ineffective. introduction of capital controls economy and growing
choices will determine whether the banking system under state As India continues to deepen Besides, the last thing India and made it a priority to importance on the world
this growth surge remains control as that makes the its integration into world trade needs is policy uncertainty that increase financial access. These economic stage are huge
sustainable or fizzles out. economy resilient to crises. and finance, it will be more frightens away foreign steps are welcome but the achievements.
Finance holds the key to Second, relatively insulated exposed to external shocks. investors and causes financing broader financial reform The danger is that
achieving India’s long-term financial markets will protect Rather than going into a problems. agenda remains vast. triumphalism leads to stalling
growth potential. As the the economy from outside defensive crouch, the right Here again, financial market Moreover, finance does not of reforms, or even some
economy becomes larger, more shocks. approach is to manage the development is the answer. A operate in a vacuum. backsliding. What is needed is
complex and market-oriented, It is true that state-owned process of globalisation to the broader set of markets can help Institutional reforms and good greater urgency and the
the financial sector will play a banks did better during the country’s benefit while absorb foreign funds and macroeconomic policies are political will to implement
crucial role in underpinning crisis, with stronger deposit containing the risks. channel them towards more essential for a financial system reforms when times are good.
growth by channelling growth and more credit Dependence on foreign productive uses. For instance, to work well and deliver high Otherwise, it will be a golden
domestic and foreign capital expansion. A different capital certainly leaves an the development of corporate Greater urgency and growth. In addition to its opportunity lost.
into productive investments. interpretation is that, during a economy at the mercy of the bond markets would help the political will are corrosive effects, rampant
Increasing access to the period of turmoil and whims of foreign investors. channel foreign capital (and public corruption scares away The writer is a professor of
financial system is also a uncertainty, deposits fled to Despite India’s sizeable war domestic savings) into long- needed to implement long-term foreign investors and economics at Cornell University
priority for making growth
more balanced and sustainable,
banks that had implicit
government backing and these
chest of foreign exchange
reserves, the current account
term financing for
infrastructure projects.
reforms when times shifts the composition of
inflows towards more short
and a senior fellow at the
Brookings Institution. He is the
from both economic and social banks were in turn emboldened deficit of more than 3 per cent Opening up sectors such as are good. Otherwise, term and less stable forms of co-author (with M. Ayhan Kose)
perspectives. and indeed encouraged to keep of gross domestic product is a the retail trade to foreign capital. of Emerging Markets: Resilience
A system that provides lending. serious concern. direct investment would also
a golden opportunity Large budget deficits and the and Growth Amid Global
credit, savings instruments and What is missing from the At the same time, India has bring in more stable funds, will be lost high level of public debt Turmoil (Brookings Institution
insurance to a broad swathe of calculus are the long-term enormous financing needs, along with technology transfers constitute another source of Press, December 2010).

Government
bowls sector a
surprise googly
dictate terms if we are going to buy
Nuclear industry $30bn worth of stuff.”
The law’s real impact will only
Amy Kazmin reports on become clear over time. The govern-
controversial legislation ment is drafting regulations that will
determine precisely how it is to be
that threatens to get in the implemented, which could soften the
way of plans to address blow. New Delhi is also considering
whether government-to-government
a huge electricity deficit assurances, and provisions in con-
tracts, might be sufficient to assure
suppliers they will not face unlimited,
When India ratified a ground-breaking uninsurable liability.
civilian nuclear energy deal with the The controversy surrounding the
US in 2008, it was a seminal moment, legislation highlights the way the
ending decades of New Delhi’s pariah Congress party-led coalition remains
status, and opening the door to inter- constrained by combative domestic
national co-operation for India to politics, which results in policies that
develop its nuclear power industry. often fall short of what international
International suppliers – including businesses, or even the government
GE, Westinghouse, Bechtel, Russia’s itself, would desire.
Rosatom, France’s Areva, and Japan’s Similar tensions between the Con-
Toshiba, Hitachi and Mitsubishi – are gress party’s aspirations and its lack
all eyeing lucrative opportunities, as of progress in reforms are visible in
India wants to undertake a huge its hesitance over liberalising the
expansion of its nuclear energy indus- retail sector, its inability to pare back
try to help close its vast domestic expensive fuel subsidies and the snail-
electricity deficit. like pace of other reforms.
But the country recently bowled the But the nuclear liability law also
global nuclear power industry – and reflects policymakers’ assumption Dual fuel: Ford ‘s Chennai plant is the first one capable of putting together petrol and diesel engines on the same production line Bloombergt
possibly itself – an unexpected googly that they can leverage their huge

Tamil Nadu on the road to


by adopting a civil nuclear liability market to set their own unique rules
law that will hold suppliers liable for of engagement. “When they come,
any accident for up to 80 years after a they will have to come on terms that
plant’s construction. Indian democracy is prescribing,”
says Mr Varadarajan. “Indian public

attracting more investment


opinion cannot just be brushed aside.”
Companies warn that the India, which relies on imported oil
rules will be a serious for all its energy needs, has big ambi-
tions for the expansion of its nuclear
deterrent to sales of capacity, with its national energy
equipment and technology plan calling for 30,000MW of nuclear
power by 2020, 63,000MW by 2030 and
to the country 250,000MW by 2050, up from 4,000MW occupies 535 acres, has been in India
of installed capacity today. The auto industry Tata Nano How the poor man’s car lost its way for nearly 15 years and is now the
Its 2008 deal with the US ended dec- country’s second-largest carmaker by
Many countries with nuclear power ades of sanctions – dating back to Carmakers are encouraged The Tata Nano car was launched four throwing in a maintenance contract for sales.
industries channel potential liability
in case of an accident to operators.
New Delhi’s first nuclear test in 1974 –
that barred foreign countries and
by the way the state years ago with much fanfare.
It was hoped that the low­cost
just Rs99 ($2) a month.
The five­seater Nano, which hit the
With current production capacity of
600,000 vehicles and expected expan-
India’s very different law has sent companies from sharing any civil government delivers vehicle would help create a new roads with a price tag of Rs100,000 sion to approach 700,000 units by 2012,
nuclear companies into a spin.
They and their Indian partners
nuclear energy technology with India.
But the parliamentary debate over
on its promises, writes segment of car owners in India, as
those on lower incomes shifted from
($2,500), has battled troubles such as
fires in some of its models and
it is also India’s biggest car exporter,
with nearly 50 per cent of its output
warn that the rules will be a serious the law – the last crucial step to lay James Fontanella­Khan two wheels to four. production delays. sold to 110 countries.
deterrent to sales of equipment and the foundation for access to foreign But, Tata was stopped in its tracks Analysts say that there are “From the start, Hyundai’s idea was

C
technology to the state-owned Nuclear technology and equipment – was held hennai, the capital of Tamil after sales of the world’s cheapest car underlying problems that need to be to turn India into its small car hub,”
Power Corporation, the only entity amid a climate of renewed national Nadu, is proof that India – plunged to just 509 units in November dealt with. says a company representative. “Here
allowed to operate nuclear power outrage over the 1984 Bhopal gas trag- like China – has what it takes 2010, falling 85 per cent from a year The Nano is considered far too we have models such as the Santro
plants in the country. edy which killed thousands of people, to become a global centre for earlier to an all­time low. expensive for its intended market. and the i10, which are only produced
“It is important that the govern- and left tens of thousands of others manufacturing. Tata subsequently launched a series The price for the basic model in India and nowhere else.”
ment gets this right in order to meet with severe lifetime health problems. The coastal city’s foreign invest- of initiatives aiming at reviving the without air conditioning was The success of Ford and Hyundai
its ambitions to develop nuclear The memory that Union Carbide, ment-friendly environment has fortunes of the Nano. Rs100,000 when the car launched has drawn other carmakers to Tamil
power for India and to enable its now owned by Dow Chemicals, paid attracted some of the world’s largest A special finance scheme to but has risen to Rs137,000 as Nadu. Nissan recently launched the
industry to become a key part of the just $470m to settle its Bhopal obliga- carmakers, turning the state into a purchase the model was offered to a result of increased production costs. compact Micra and its partner
global supply chain,” says Ted Jones, tions – overshadowed the debate on manufacturing and export hub for Tata Motors employees who earn The Nano has found it difficult to Renault will roll out its first India-
director of international supplier the nuclear bill, as the Congress party small cars and a model for economic more than Rs12,500 ($280) a month. attract low­income earners in crowded specific car in mid-2011.
relations at the Washington-based tried to push it through ahead of Pres- development. The Nano Happiness Guarantee was Mumbai and New Delhi, who are also Local businesses in the state have
Nuclear Energy Institute. “The stakes ident Barack Obama’s recent visit. South Korea’s Hyundai, Ford of the also launched for customers, more unlikely to have space to park a car. also enjoyed a boost, as auto-part ven-
are high.” “India is perhaps the only democ- US, Japan’s Nissan and Renault of than doubling its warranty from 18 dors have mushroomed and employ-
Yet many Indian lawmakers and racy with a vibrant public opinion France are among the carmakers that months to four years, while also Anjli Raval ment has boomed. Analysts estimate
analysts remain sanguine, insisting going into large scale acquisition of have poured billions of dollars into that the state’s auto industry employs
the size of the country’s nuclear nuclear power,” vast plants in the southern state, about 250,000 people.
equipment market – estimated says Mr Vara- churning out compact and fuel- Tamil Nadu has also allowed auto- Tamil Nadu’s actions to draw for-
at about $30bn – darajan. efficient vehicles. makers to keep the mainstream eign direct investment are attracting
would prove an “It was In 2010 alone, more than 1m cars unions out of their plants, lessening the eye of manufacturers in other
irresistible lure inevitable will be produced in Chennai, with a the potential for labour disruption. industries as well. For example,
to foreign com- given the third of them exported to Asia, Africa Ford has invested about $1bn to Nokia, one of the world’s largest
panies, despite experience and Europe. In a country where set- build a plant with a production mobile phone makers, has sited its
their reserva- of Bhopal ting up a greenfield project is often capacity of 200,000 cars and 250,000 biggest production plant there.
tions about the that there difficult, Tamil Nadu offers some hope engines. Foreign investment is also helping
law. would be for a nation that is overdependent on At present, 85 per cent of the vehi- the southern state overcome some of
“I don’t think heightened con- the services industry. cles are sold in the domestic market, the chronic deficiencies plaguing
the liability law sciousness of the The state’s blend of financial incen- but the Detroit-based group recently other parts of India.
is going to risks with technol- tives, stable industrial policy, a con- shipped its first made-in-India Figos to Chennai’s roads, while better than
deter foreign ogy, and who is sistent stream of skilled labour and South Africa and by next year Ford the norm in India, are far from perfect
suppliers going to bear that proximity to a big and sophisticated plans to expand exports to include 48 by global standards and trucks trans-
from com- risk.” port make it an attractive location for countries in the Asia-Pacific region porting vehicles to the port are barred
ing to the To Sumit Ganguly, a a production hub, say foreign carmak- and Africa. from travelling through the city cen-
Indian South Asia expert at Indi- ers based there. The plant in Chennai is labour- tre between 6am and 10pm to reduce
market,” ana University, the entire epi- “Tamil Nadu is a place where we intensive, with about 4,000 people congestion.
says Sid- sode is “so typical of India” and its feel very comfortable to do business,” working two nine-hour shifts. But it is However, the local government has
dharth Vara- policymaking style. “It’s this whole says Michael Boneham, managing also one of Ford’s most innovative – The success of Ford and promised to build a ring road within
darajan, stra- notion that ‘we are so big, we can director of Ford India. “India wasn’t the first one capable of producing pet- Hyundai has drawn other the next three years, which will let
tegic affairs do anything we want’. on our radar for a while, but now we rol and diesel engines on the same trucks transport goods undisrupted.
editor for The “It’s going to significantly hob- recognise it as a hub for small and production line. carmakers to the state. The carmakers are also encouraged
Hindu,
respected
a ble the ability of companies to
come in.”
fuel-efficient cars.”
Incentives include tax exemptions,
“We have members of the group’s
global team coming here to analyse
Nissan has launched the by the state government’s record for
delivering on promises.
newspaper. aid in acquiring land on which to how our model can be applied else- Micra and parent Renault “Here [in Chennai] we have been
“The sup- build plants, and infrastructure sup- where in the world,” says R. Balasun- able to do what wasn’t possible else-
plier cannot
Big is beautiful: analysts are
port, along with a reduction in the red daram, vice-president of Ford India.
will roll out its first India­ where [in the world] produce a robust
confident size of Indian market
expect to
will be an irresistble lure
tape involved in securing permits and Hyundai, whose sprawling $1.6bn specific car in mid 2011 and modern car in a super competi-
licences. state-of-the-art manufacturing plant tive environment,” says Mr Boneham.
4 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES THURSDAY JANUARY 27 2011

India & Globalisation

New destinations save once ‘doomed’ sector


Towel toil: workers make final
Textiles adjustments to towels that have
been made without chemical
James Fontanella­ dyes. India has found new
Khan reports on a markets for such wares

revival in prospects months.


for an industry that One of the reasons India has
recovered faster than developed
employs 50m people economies from the global
financial crisis is partly thanks
to entrepreneurs such as Mr

I
ndia’s $20bn-plus textile Idrees and Mr Balakrishnan,
and garments industry was who were compelled to establish
on the verge of disappear- new trade links when tradi-
ing in the aftermath of the tional ones were severed.
global financial crisis. In spite of the tension
For a sector that counts more between India and China, which
than 15,000 companies employ- are struggling to resolve a
ing 50m people – making it the decades-long border dispute
largest employer after agricul- over the Indian state of Aru-
ture – its near-exclusive depend- nachal Pradesh, trade between
ence on the west made it vulner- the two has grown rapidly in
able to macroeconomic forces the past decade.
that were beyond its control. “India-China bilateral trade in
However, the global recession 2010 is expected to pass $60bn,
forced textile and garments making China India’s largest
executives to seek imaginative trading partner,” says Kamal
new solutions. Rungta, managing director of
As many of the companies’ EJ McKay, an India-China
trusted European and US clients focused corporate adviser.
filed for bankruptcy, and compe- Since the beginning of 2010,
tition from neighbouring coun- about 20 per cent of India’s
tries such as Bangladesh and Sri export revenues have come from
Lanka grew, they started look- China, which still enjoys a sub-
ing for business in other emerg- stantial trade surplus with
ing markets. India.
Suddenly, the new destina- Although there are no recent
tions for their products were the trade data breaking down
United Arab Emirates, Saudi exports revenue of the textile
Arabia and China, says Moham- and garments industry on a
mad Idrees, a small manufac- country-by-country basis, sev-
turer of leather belts based in eral sector executives say that
the heart of Mumbai’s Dharavi, sales to China and the UAE
Asia’s biggest slum. have picked up compared with
Mr Idrees says that the future previous years.
of his business was seriously at India’s textile industry is far
risk after his customers of 20 from being out of the woods and
years in Germany and Italy rising commodity prices have
stopped paying their bills. put additional pressure on com-
“I waited six months for my panies’ balance sheets, but it is
money to come from an Italian finally seeing some light at the
client,” complains Mr Idrees, end of the tunnel.
sipping a steaming cup of chai Back in the alleyways of
in a corner of his workshop, Dharavi, Mr Idrees goes around
which looks like an upmarket Dharavi is not the only entre- and India, many are forcing ing the way they operate. els to China in search of new patting children’s heads, with a
version of a Dickensian sweat- preneur in India who has been themselves to overcome their “Europe and the US are still clients, says that “demand from smile on his face, and seems not
shop. looking to Shanghai and fears. important but we can see a shift In spite of the border China is growing fast, really to mind that the road ahead of
“I stopped waiting and I Guangzhou as the new destina- Ali Ahmed Khan, director of to other emerging economies,” tension between India fast”. him is waterlogged following
looked for other solutions and I tions that might revive what the Council for Leather Exports says Mr Khan. “I’ve recently come back from the heavy monsoon rains that
ended up selling to the Chi- seemed a doomed sector. in the south Indian city of Chen- “As China becomes a global and China, trade a visit to Guangzhou to meet have hit India’s financial capi-
nese,” he says. “They pay on
delivery,” he adds with a spar-
Although differences in lan-
guage and culture remain a big
nai, the country's hub for
leather products, says many
power, we expect more trade to
go on between the two coun-
between the two clients and they made a huge
order,” says Mr Balakrishnan,
tal. He says he has found his
new way.
kle in his eyes, as if it was a problem in establishing trade manufacturers have started tries.” has grown rapidly who says he has lost count of “Europe and America are the
match made in heaven. links between small- and medi- moving away from their tradi- A. Balakrishnan, director of the number of times he has old world. The future is else-
The shrewd businessman from um-sized companies in China tional markets and are rethink- SDS Leather who regularly trav-
in the past decade flown to China in the past six where. The future is China and,
obviously, India,” he says.

Global reach Rich pickings at


provides new home and abroad
avenues for Pharmaceuticals
Global companies
company, says most Indian
pharmaceutical company
owners feel little urge to
sell, given the current
with foreign pharmaceuti-
cal groups’ growing interest
in local drugmakers.
Recent takeovers have

raising cash are not so sniffy rapid, profitable expansion raised concerns among
of their businesses at home some policymakers that for-
about cheap drugs and abroad. eign ownership may lead to
these days, writes “Almost all the big phar-
maceutical companies are
sharply higher domestic
drug prices, potentially a
Bank to fund the outstand- Amy Kazmin trying to develop generic big problem in a country
Financing ing debt it took out in early divisions – that is part of where 80 per cent of total
2010 to acquire 3G spec- their strategy,” says Mr healthcare costs are shoul-
James Fontanella­ trum. International pharmaceuti- Bhartia. “You would have dered privately.
Khan reports on In both cases, the Indian
company was offered credit
cal companies once looked
with frustration at Indian
seen more deals if there
were more sellers. But there
Foreign-owned companies
have about 15 per cent of
the savings to be at less than half the price drug makers, which were are not many sellers. Their India’s domestic drugs mar-
made by seeking offered by banks in Mumbai
or New Delhi.
notorious for churning out
low-cost, copycat versions
businesses are still growing
steadily, value is building
ket, up from 10 per cent in
2009.
funds abroad “The Chinese do a great Rate rise: central bank raised lending rates six times in 2010 and is set to do so again soon of patented drugs and sell- up and there is no hurry to Jyoti Mirdha, a Congress
job when it comes to financ- ing them to developing sell.” party lawmaker who sits on
Indian companies like to ing deals,” says an execu- countries. But other types of part- parliament’s health and
think big. Often bigger than tive at Reliance Communi- Banks seek global presence in emerging markets More recently, they have nerships – including prod- family welfare committee,
they can realistically cations. “We save about been looking at India’s fast uct licensing deals, and has urged New Delhi to
achieve given the financing $100m a year compared Religare Capital Markets, the financial $100m to $400m,” says Tarun Kataria, growing pharmaceutical research and development make it tougher for foreign
constraints that many face with what we would [have services firm backed by the billionaire Singh chief executive. industry in a different light collaboration – are also companies to take control-
when it comes to borrowing to pay in interest] in India. family, is set to become India’s first global He says that the firm has already formed – as an increasingly inte- growing. Pfizer has signed ling stakes in domestic
money from a bank in That’s a lot of money.” emerging markets investment bank. a joint venture in Turkey and acquired gral part of the global sup- three product licensing drugmakers.
Asia’s third-largest econ- Reliance was one of the The group, which plans to make a series bases in Sri Lanka, Singapore, Hong Kong, ply chain in an environ- agreements with Bangalore- “It took us 40 years to
omy. first big Indian groups to of acquisitions in the next six months to London and New York. It plans to set up in ment of intensifying pres- based Biocon to develop a come to this status of self-
However, this is slowly approach Chinese banks for expand its presence internationally, is Brazil, the Philippines, Indonesia and South sure on prices. range of insulin for its sufficiency in pharmaceuti-
changing. The global expo- funding. However, many planning to become the point of reference Africa. The quest for low-cost international markets. cal drugs,” says Ms Mirdha.
sure of Indian conglomer- will follow suit if the condi- for Indian companies considering deals in Religare is not the only Indian bank keen production and research GlaxoSmithKline has an “No matter what happens,
ates such as the Tata Group tions are superior to those developing countries. to build an international network. Growing and development facilities – agreement with Dr Reddy’s we should be able to manu-
and Reliance Industries has in India, say analysts. Its expansion reflects the growing hunger numbers of merchant banks are setting up coupled with an eye to Laboratories to collaborate facture our own drugs.”
opened new avenues for “Indian companies are of Indian companies to acquire assets joint ventures and alliances with their India’s own fast-growing in emerging markets. The ministries of health
other companies in the becoming more global and abroad, particularly in emerging markets counterparts in emerging markets. domestic drugs market – Lupin, the Mumbai-based and commerce are consider-
country to raise cheap cash practical when it comes to similar to the home country. “It is much more convenient to set up a has led to a flurry of foreign ing proposals that would
overseas without having to finding ways to raise funds The small size of most such transactions partnership with an investment bank in takeovers in the past few Jyoti Mirdha, require government
go through the complica- to scale up their business,” makes it difficult for a company to get big Africa and South America than opening an years. Japan’s Daiichi San- a Congress approval for any foreign
tions that are common in says Rashesh Shah, chair- investment banks to back their deals. office there,” explains Rashesh Shah of kyo paid $3.6bn in 2008 for health expert, company to purchase more
India when seeking credit. man of Edelweiss Group, Religare aims to fill this gap. Edelweiss, a financial services group. India’s biggest drugmaker, wants limits than 49 per cent of an exist-
The preferred destina- the Mumbai-based financial “We hope to work on a variety of Ranbaxy Laboratories, and on foreign ing Indian drugmaker. “It
tions to clinch more favour- services house. mid­size deals which can go from James Fontanella­Khan in 2009, Sanofi-Aventis ownership should be considered a sen-
able conditions for financ- He adds: “The cost of bought a controlling stake sitive sector,” says Ms
ing have traditionally been credit is much lower out- in Shantha Biotech, a Mirdha.
London, New York, Seoul side India for a number of January, as it struggles to finance ministry to relax to develop its shambolic Hyderabad-based vaccine drug maker, recently signed However, such restric-
and Tokyo. More recently, reasons, so if Indian compa- tame soaring food prices overseas borrowing norms. infrastructure. The govern- maker for €550m. a five-year deal with Far- tions are likely to be
Beijing and Shanghai have nies can, they will go any- and rampant inflation. Initially, Indian execu- ment’s planning commis- Last year, US-based manguinhos, the Brazilian opposed by domestic drug
emerged as attractive where to find cheaper “For Indian banks to com- tives flew to London and sion says that at least Abbott Laboratories paid state healthcare company, companies, many of which
places in which seek even credit, be it the UK, the US pete with US or Chinese New York to raise cash via $1,000bn is needed to $3.7bn for Piramal Health- to supply a four-in-one com- have been on their own
cheaper funding. or Korea they will go for it. banks is difficult, as they the equity or debt market. develop public transport care’s generic drug formula- bination drug for tuberculo- overseas acquisition sprees.
Reliance ADAG, the tele- China is just the latest don’t have to deal with the “It is easy to explain why and the power network. The tion unit, and Reckitt sis. “The prices of important,
coms-to-power conglomer- opportunity for them.” high interest rates we have Indian companies will come deal between Reliance and Benckiser, the UK house- India is now the world’s lifesaving drugs are already
ate controlled by Anil In spite of the growing to London. Prestige is the Chinese banks reflects hold products group, agreed third-biggest manufacturer regulated, and they will be
Ambani, the billionaire inflationary pressures important, as is access to the trend, with China to pay £454m for Paras of pharmaceutical products regulated, whoever owns
industrialist, signed a string China is facing, the cost of Growth ambitions the FTSE 100 and the possi- expecting Indian companies Pharmaceuticals, which – including active pharma- them,” says Mr Bhartia,
of loan agreements in 2010 capital remains signifi- have led the central bility of lower debt funding to buy its products in combined over-the-counter ceutical ingredients, and who, along with his posi-
worth almost $14bn with cantly lower than in India. costs as a result of a Lon- return for cheap financing. drugs with branded per- finished dosage formula- tion at Jubilant Life Sci-
Chinese banks. Lending rates for Indian bank and finance don listing,” says a report “We are going to see more sonal care products. tions – by volume, and ences is president of the
The first deal saw Mr
Ambani’s Reliance Power
banks are usually more
than 10 per cent, while a
ministry to relax by the City of London Cor-
poration.
and more of this kind of
funding coming from
Other big drug companies
have also been looking to
numerous plants have
received the approval from
Confederation of Indian
Industry.
signing a $12bn financing Chinese banks can offer borrowing norms However, the government China,” says Sanjay India as a means to expand the US Federal Drug “The pharmaceutical
agreement with a consor- rates as low as 4 or 5 per and business people have Sakhuja, chief executive of their own generic drug pro- Administration that is industry in India has hun-
tium of Chinese banks that cent. been looking at the emerg- Ambit Corporate Finance. duction capacity, as they required for exporting to dreds of companies, and if
would help it buy $10bn The Shanghai interbank in our country,” says Mr ing markets such as China “This doesn’t mean that gear up for the expiry of the US. somebody wants to acquire
worth of power generation rate for three-month loans Shah. to diversify their funding Indian companies will stop some of their most valuable Exports have soared from one, it’s fine,” he says. “We
equipment supplied by was just over 4 per cent in In the past, the Indian opportunities. In January, approaching US and Euro- patents in the coming Rs128bn in 2002-2003, to also have the right to go to
Shanghai Electric. mid January, compared government made it diffi- for example, India’s consu- pean banks for M&A-related years, as well as to gain Rs384bn in 2008-2009, and the US, and Europe and
In a separate deal, Reli- with more than 9 per cent cult for domestic banks to late general in Shanghai deals, but certainly China access to the country’s vast have continued to grow in acquire.
ance Communications, Mr in India. raise cash outside the sub- invited Chinese banks to will be the preferred option domestic market. the past two years. About “Acquisition by compa-
Ambani’s debt-stricken The Reserve Bank of continent. However, the work closely with Indian for those seeking credit for However, Hari Bhartia, 20 per cent of pharmaceuti- nies to take market share in
mobile phone operator, India raised lending rates country’s double-digit groups to invest in the expansion plans that will co-chairman and managing cal exports are bound for a particular country is nor-
received a $1.93bn loan six times in 2010 and is growth ambitions have led country’s infrastructure. include cheap Chinese director of Jubilant Life the US. Yet not all Indian mal. There is nothing to
from China Development expected to do so again in the central bank and India urgently needs cash equipment.” Sciences, a New Delhi-based policymakers are pleased fear.”
FINANCIAL TIMES THURSDAY JANUARY 27 2011 ★ 5
6 ★ FINANCIAL TIMES THURSDAY JANUARY 27 2011

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