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CHAPTER 10
Project Management
Network Diagrams
══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
IMMEDIATE IMMEDIATE
PREDECESSOR PREDECESSOR
ACTIVITY ACTIVITIES ACTIVITY ACTIVITIES
──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
a -- e a
b -- f e,c
c b g c,d,e
d b h f,g
══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
Solution
2 e
a 4 f
h
1 6 7
c
b
g
3 5
d
1
Gaither/Frazier 9th ed. Supplemental Problems Chapter 10
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IMMEDIATE IMMEDIATE
PREDECESSOR PREDECESSOR
ACTIVITY ACTIVITIES ACTIVITY ACTIVITIES
════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
a -- h a
b -- i h
c -- j i
d b k b
e c l h,k,f,g
f c m g,f
g d,e
════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
Solution
h i
2 5 7
j
a
b k l
1 3 8 10
d
c 6
g m
e
4 9
f
2
Gaither/Frazier 9th ed. Supplemental Problems Chapter 10
Critical Path
10.3 A project has these activities, precedence relationships, and activity durations:
══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
Intermediate Activity Intermediate Activity
Predecessor Duration Predecessor Duration
Activity Activities (Weeks) Activity Activities (Weeks)
──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
a - 3 e b 5
b - 4 f a 7
c - 3 g e,f 3
d c 12
══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
Solution
a.
2
d
a
6
b
1 3
e
g
c 5
f
4
b.
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════
PATH LENGTH OF PATH (weeks)
───────────────────────────────────────────────────────
c-d 3 + 12 = 15 ******
b-e-g 4 + 5 + 3 = 12
a-f-g 3 + 7 + 3 = 13
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════
3
Gaither/Frazier 9th ed. Supplemental Problems Chapter 10
10.4 A project has these activities, precedence relationships, and activity durations:
═════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
Intermediate Activity Intermediate Activity
Predecessor Duration Predecessor Duration
Activity Activities (Days) Activity Activities (Days)
─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
a - 10 f b 17
b - 15 g b 12
c a 10 h d,f 9
d a 20 i h,g 7
e c 15
═════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
Solution
a.
2 5
c
d e
a 4
1 h i 7
b 6
f
g
b.
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════
PATH LENGTH OF PATH (days)
───────────────────────────────────────────────────────
a-c-e 10 + 10 + 15 = 35
a-d-h-i 10 + 20 + 9 + 7 = 46
b-f-h-i 15 + 17 + 9 + 7 = 48 *****
b-g-i 15 + 12 + 7 = 34
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════
4
Gaither/Frazier 9th ed. Supplemental Problems Chapter 10
10.5 A project has these activities, precedence relationships, and activity durations:
Solution
f=15
2 5
h=9
g=17
a=6
i=6
6
8
b=8
1 3
d=13
j=12
c=5 7
e=9
4
b.
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════
PATH LENGTH OF PATH (days)
───────────────────────────────────────────────────────
a-f-h 6 + 15 + 9 = 30
a-g-i 6 + 17 + 6 = 29
b-d-j 8 + 13 + 12 = 33 <=====
c-e-j 5 + 9 + 12 = 26
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════
5
Gaither/Frazier 9th ed. Supplemental Problems Chapter 10
10.6 A project has these activities, precedence relationships, and activity durations:
Solution
c f
1 4 6 7
b g h
d
e
b.
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════
PATH LENGTH OF PATH (days)
───────────────────────────────────────────────────────
a-f-h 7 + 21 + 8 = 36
a-c-g-h 7 + 14 + 14 + 8 = 43
b-e-h 10 + 19 + 8 = 37
b-d-g-h 10 + 12 + 14 + 8 = 44 <=====
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════
6
Gaither/Frazier 9th ed. Supplemental Problems Chapter 10
Slack Times
Solution
S 13
EF LF 20 33
2 5
c=10
13
2 35 48
2 d=20
10 12
30 32 e=15
0
a=10
41 41
4
0
1 h=9 i=7 7
b=15 32 32 6
f=17 0
02 g=12 48 48
10
15 12
15 14
3 27 41
7
Gaither/Frazier 9th ed. Supplemental Problems Chapter 10
Solution
S
2
8 EF LF
1 28 36
7 8 1 c=14 f=21
a=7 21 22
0 0
36 36 44 44
1 4 6 7
g=14 h=8
0
b=10 22 22 d=12
e=19
0
7
10 10
29 36
8
Gaither/Frazier 9th ed. Supplemental Problems Chapter 10
10.9 A project has these activities, precedence relationships, and activity durations:
════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
Immediate Activity Immediate Activity
Predecessor Duration Predecessor Duration
Activity Activities (Weeks) Activity Activities (Weeks)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
a -- 3 g d 10
b -- 9 h e,f 7
c -- 7 i g,h 14
d a 12 j c 15
e a,b 10 k f,j 9
f c 11
════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
Solution
9
Gaither/Frazier 9th ed. Supplemental Problems Chapter 10
10.9 Continued
c. Compute the ES and LS for all activities. Display the ES, EF, LS, LF, and
slack values in a table.
═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
ACTIVITY EARLIEST EARLIEST LATEST LATEST
ACTIVITY DURATION START FINISH START FINISH SLACK
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
a 3.00 0.00 3.00 1.00 4.00 1.00
b 9.00 0.00 9.00 0.00 9.00 0.00
c 7.00 0.00 7.00 1.00 8.00 1.00
d 12.00 3.00 15.00 4.00 16.00 1.00
e 10.00 9.00 19.00 9.00 19.00 0.00
f 11.00 7.00 18.00 8.00 19.00 1.00
g 10.00 15.00 25.00 16.00 26.00 1.00
h 7.00 19.00 26.00 19.00 26.00 0.00
i 14.00 26.00 40.00 26.00 40.00 0.00
j 15.00 7.00 22.00 16.00 31.00 9.00
k 9.00 22.00 31.00 31.00 40.00 9.00
════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
Note: ES = EF - D and LS = LF - D.
10
Gaither/Frazier 9th ed. Supplemental Problems Chapter 10
PERT
10.10 An activity in a project has three time estimates: optimistic time (t o) = 15 weeks,
most likely time (tm) = 20 weeks, and pessimistic time (tp) = 22 weeks.
Solution
11
Gaither/Frazier 9th ed. Supplemental Problems Chapter 10
10.11 Project path a-c-e-f has these activity time estimates in days:
═══════════════════════════════════════════════
Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic
Activity Time (to) Time (tm) Time (tp)
───────────────────────────────────────────────
a 20 25 30
c 25 30 32
e 15 17 20
f 18 18 18
═══════════════════════════════════════════════
Solution
Vt = [(tp - to)/6]2
12
Gaither/Frazier 9th ed. Supplemental Problems Chapter 10
10.12 An activity in a PERT network has these estimates: t o = 10, tm = 12, tp = 15.
Solution
σ t = V t = . 694 = .83
13
Gaither/Frazier 9th ed. Supplemental Problems Chapter 10
10.13 A path in a PERT network has these activity time estimates in days:
════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic
Activity Time(to) Time (tm) Time (tp)
────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
a 10 12 15
c 10 15 20
f 10 12 13
i 10 15 20
════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
Solution
═════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
MOST ACTIVITY
OPTIMISTIC LIKELY PESSIMISTIC EXPECTED ACTIVITY
TIME TIME TIME TIME VARIANCE
ACTIVITY (to) (tm) (tp) (te) (Vt)
─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
a 10 12 15 12.17 .694
c 10 15 20 15.00 2.778
f 10 12 13 11.83 .250
i 10 15 20 15.00 2.778
─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
PATH MEAN DURATION AND VARIANCE 54.00 6.500
═════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
14
Gaither/Frazier 9th ed. Supplemental Problems Chapter 10
10.14 Two paths of a PERT network have these mean durations and variances in days:
═══════════════════════════════════════
Mean Duration Variance
Path (Ste) (SVt)
───────────────────────────────────────
1 45 2.75
2 44 5.50
3 46 1.20
═══════════════════════════════════════
Which path offers the greater risk of taking longer than 55 days?
Solution
σ t= ∑ V t
Path 1: σ t = 2 .80 = 1.673 days
Next, compute the number of standard deviations from the mean to 55 days for each
path:
Z = (x - )/t
Next, use Appendix A to compute the probability of overrunning 55 weeks for each of
the paths:
15
Gaither/Frazier 9th ed. Supplemental Problems Chapter 10
10.15 An activity in a project has three time estimates: optimistic time (t o) = 16 days,
most likely time (tm) = 19 days, and pessimistic time (tp) = 21 days.
Solution
16
Gaither/Frazier 9th ed. Supplemental Problems Chapter 10
10.16 An activity in a PERT network has these estimates: t o = 15, tm = 17, tp = 20.
Solution
17
Gaither/Frazier 9th ed. Supplemental Problems Chapter 10
10.17 Project path b–c–g–j has these activity time estimates in days:
Solution
Vt = [(tp - to)/6]2
Activity j: Vt = [( 8 - 8)/6]2 = 0
18
Gaither/Frazier 9th ed. Supplemental Problems Chapter 10
10.18 A project has the following activities, precedence relationships, and time
estimates in days:
Immediate
Predecessor Optimistic Most likely Pessimistic
Activity Activities Time (to) Time (tm) Time (tp)
───────────────────────────────────────────────
a — 12 13 14
b a 6 9 11
c a 9 11 13
d b 14 16 17
e c 5 5 5
f c 5 7 8
g c 8 12 14
h d,e 13 15 17
i g 7 9 11
j h,f,i 14 16 17
a. Compute the duration (expected time) and variances for each activity.
b. Draw a PERT network.
c. Compute the EF, LF, and slack for each activity. Write the values on the
PERT network.
d. Compute the ES and LS for all activities. Display the ES, EF, LF, and
slack values in a table.
e. What is the critical path?
f. What is the probability that the project will take longer than 70 days?
Solution
a. Compute the duration (expected time) and variances for each activity.
═════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
MOST ACTIVITY
OPTIMISTIC LIKELY PESSIMISTIC EXPECTED ACTIVITY
TIME TIME TIME TIME VARIANCE
ACTIVITY (to) (tm) (tp) (te) (Vt)
─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
a 12 13 14 13.00 .11
b 6 9 11 8.83 .69
c 9 11 13 11.00 .44
d 14 16 17 15.83 .25
e 5 5 5 5.00 0
f 5 7 8 6.83 .25
g 8 12 14 11.67 1.00
h 13 15 17 15.00 .44
i 7 9 11 9.00 .44
j 14 16 17 15.83 .25
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19
Gaither/Frazier 9th ed. Supplemental Problems Chapter 10
10.18 Continued
0 S
37.67 37.67 EF LF
2
d=15.83
0
21.83 21.83
2 0
b=8.83 8.67
52.67 52.67
29.00 37.67
h=15.00
0 e=5.00 21.83 0
13.00 13.00 30.83 52.67 68.50 68.50
1 2 4 7 8
a=13.00 c=11.00 f=6.83 j=15.83
8.00
24.00 32.00 g=11.67 i=9.00
8.00 8.00
35.67 43.67 44.67 52.67
3
20
Gaither/Frazier 9th ed. Supplemental Problems Chapter 10
10.18 Continued
d. Compute the ES and LS for all activities. Display the ES, EF, LF, and
slack values in a table.
a b d h j
DURATION: 68.50
VARIANCE: 1.75
STANDARD DEVIATION: 1.32
NUMBER OF STANDARD DEVIATIONS OFF REQUIRED TIME: 1.13
f. What is the probability that the project will take longer than 70 days?
From the computer solution above, t = 1.32 days and 70 days is 1.13
standard deviations from the mean. From Appendix A we obtain the
probability that completion time will be less than 70 days is .87076, therefore,
the probability that the completion time will be greater than 70 days is:
21