The Crisis

of TRUST
in a
Social Age
03.12.11
 It is safe?
Watch this clip from the movie “Marathon Man” (
 SOCIAL MEDIA CONTINUES
ITS METEORIC RISE

23% 41%
ALL INTERNET TIME YAG
SPENT ON SNS

248 MM 48%
UNIQUE MONTHLY YAG
VISITORS TO TOP 8 SNS
SITES

61% 50%
INTERNET USERS YAG
WITH AN SNS
PROFILE

Source: Nielsen NetView - June 2009-June 2010

 CONSUMER DECISION
MAKING IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY
SOCIAL
“Do I look good? I really love
this dress. I don’t think
pictures do it justice.”

I LIKE IT I HATE IT 84 %
LIKE IT

Photo Credit: Kris Krüg

 TRUST IN THE PEOPLE
WE KNOW HAS ERODED

CREDIBILITY OF INFORMATION SOURCES ABOUT COMPANIES 2008 2010

TV NEWS

RADIO NEWS

NEWSPAPERS

FRIENDS/PEERS

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Source: Edelman Trust Barometer, 2010

 AND WE REQUIRE MORE PROOF

60% OF PEOPLE REPORT NEEDING TO

HEAR SOMETHING ABOUT A SPECIFIC
COMPANY 3-5X TO BELIEVE IT IS TRUE

Source: Edelman Trust Barometer, 2010

 TRUST AND SOCIAL
MEDIA OPINIONS ONLINE

MORE OPINIONS AND TRUST MORE 40%

MORE OPINIONS AND TRUST LESS 18%
UNSURE ABOUT THE NUMBER OF
41%
OPINIONS BUT IT’S GETTING HARDER
TO TELL

Source: Sapient Global Trust Survey March 2011

 THREE POSSIBILITIES
NOT A PROBLEM:
1 • TRUST IS NOT AS IMPORTANT AS IT USED TO BE

2 MAYBE A PROBLEM
• IT’S TOO EARLY TO TELL

YES, IT’S A PROBLEM:

3 • TRUST HAS ERODED - QUESTION IS WHY & WHAT TO
DO

ROCK THE VOTE!

TWEET 1, 2 OR 3 TO #quest4trust NOW
 THE AUDIENCE HAS SPOKEN!
NOT A PROBLEM: 6%
1 • TRUST IS NOT AS IMPORTANT AS IT USED TO BE

2 MAYBE A PROBLEM 38%

• IT’S TOO EARLY TO TELL

YES, IT’S A PROBLEM: 56%

3 • TRUST HAS ERODED - QUESTION IS WHY & WHAT TO
DO

SOURCE: COMPILATION OF AUDIENCE VOTES VIA LIVE TWEETS DURING THE PRESENTATION
WHAT IS TRUST?
CONFIDENCE IN THE FUTURE IN
RELATION
TO SOMETHING OF VALUE
WHY DOES TRUST EXIST?
TO COMMUNE.

TO LIVE.

TO PROTECT
WHAT’S
VALUABLE.
 RISK SHAPES TRUST

SELF- SELF-FULFILLMENT
ACTUALIZATION: NEEDS
achieving one’s full
potential including
creative activities

ESTEEM NEEDS:
prestige and feeling of accomplishment
PSYCHOLOGICAL
BELONGINGNESS AND LOVE NEEDS: NEEDS
intimate relationships, friends

SAFETY NEEDS:
security, safety
BASIC NEEDS
PHYSIOLOGICAL NEEDS:
food, water, warmth, rest

urce: A Theory of Human Motivation, 1943 - A. Maslow

THE MOB RULES
TRUST IS AN AGGREGATE

COMPANY CONSUMER

BRAND CONNECTION EXPECTATIONS

PRODUCT REPUTATION BELIEFS

PLACE PR EMOTIONAL
SERVICE ADVERTISING RATIONAL
PRICE FRIENDS
PROMOTION SOCIAL MEDIA
ASSOCIATIONS

EXPERIENCE PSYCHOLOGICA
L
SHOPPING
PHYSICAL
CONSUMPTION
 HOW TRUST WORKS
OWNERSHIP /
EXPECTATION
EXPERIENCE

PUT IN
$$$
GET OUT
PHYSICAL RATIONAL
PSYCHIC EMOTIONAL

TRUST
IT FRAMES THE VALUE PROPOSITION

VALUE = COSTS VS. BENEFITS

PUT IN GET OUT

TRUST
 ‘FUTURE PROOF’ IS A TRUST PLAY

VALUE = COSTS VS. BENEFITS

PUT IN GET OUT

TRUST
 TRUST IS
FEELING GOOD.

Photo Credits: Heinrich Klaffs

 AN ECONOMIC GALE OF
DARWINIAN PROPORTIONS

WW MID
2008
II 1980s
ENDS

ERA OF ERA OF ERA OF

READINESS INDULGENCE CONSEQUENCES
ECONOMIC RISK THOUGHT RISK
RISK EVER- TO BE ABRUPTLY
PRESENT MANAGEABLE RETURNS
DESPITE BEST WITH HIGH- UNEXPECTEDL
EFFORTS TO TECH MACRO- Y CREATING
MANAGE IT. ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY,
STANDING ON TOOLS. REASSESSING
GUARD.
Source: A Darwinian Gale - The Futures Group 2010
INDULGING EXTERNALITIE
 WELCOME TO
THE ERA OF CONSEQUENCES
“The new consumer psychology on the rise
around the world is one of networks and
prioritization, of explicitly pricing in
consequences and of giving more than lip
service to being resourceful and and
vigilant to downside risks This is the global
zeitgeist now aborning.”

Source: A Darwinian Gale - The Futures Group 2010

OTHER MACRO FORCES ADD TO
THE ‘CONSEQUENCE’
UNDERCURRENT
CONSUMPTION ECONOMIC
•ECOLI IN FOOD SUPPLY •LAID OFF OR WORK
•TOXIC DOG FOOD SCALED BACK
•HOMES WORTH LESS
•LED PAINT IN TOYS

•OBESITY
THAN DEBT
•RETIREMENT FUNDS

DECIMATED

ENVIRONMENT INSTITUTIONS
•SEVERE WEATHER •MORTGAGE COLLAPSE
AND DAMAGE •INVESTMENT MELTDOWN

•BIRD FLU, SWINE FLU

•AUTO INDUSTRY

•GLOBAL WARMING BAILOUTS

•9/11
 EFFECTS ON CONSUMER
BEHAVIOR
The decision calculus of
consumer choice will be
different. The process of arriving
at decisions will be different,
even when the outcomes are the
same.

Consumers are redefining what

value means to them.

Source: A Darwinian Gale - The Futures Group 2010

 HAS EVOLVED THE VALUE
PROPOSITION
VALUE = COSTS VS. BENEFITS

PUT IN
GET OUT

TRUST
 HAS EVOLVED THE VALUE
PROPOSITION
VALUE = COSTS VS. BENEFITS

PUT IN
GET OUT

TAKEN
AWAY

HOW IT’S
MADE
INGREDIENTS TRUST
PROCESSING
FOOTPRINT
SOCIAL MEDIA HAS
A CHARACTER
ISSUE
MOTIVATION / VOLUME OF COMMENTS SKEWED CONTRIBUTIONS

NEGATIVE POSITIVE

NEUTRAL

SENTIMENT CHARACTER
MOTIVATION / VOLUME OF COMMENTS OPAQUE INTEGRITY

NEGATIVE POSITIVE

NEUTRAL

SENTIMENT CHARACTER
 TALK

IS
CHEAP
REFERRAL MODERATED BY
REPUTATIONAL RISK
 TRUST IN SOCIAL MEDIA OPINIONS:
MANY DRIVERS, CONTEXT SPECIFIC
SOURCE
FAMILIARITY

AGGREGATE OPINION
CONSENSUS ORIGIN

INDEPENDENCE EXPERTISE

Source: Sapient Global Trust Survey March 2011

 TRUST IN SOCIAL MEDIA OPINIONS:
MANY DRIVERS, CONTEXT SPECIFIC
SOMEONE YOU SOURCE
KNOW? FAMILIARITY
VS
SOMEONE YOU
DON’T KNOW

AGGREGATE OPINION
CONSENSUS ORIGIN

INDEPENDENCE EXPERTISE

Source: Sapient Global Trust Survey March 2011

 TRUST IN SOCIAL MEDIA OPINIONS:
MANY DRIVERS, CONTEXT SPECIFIC
SOMEONE YOU SOURCE
KNOW? FAMILIARITY
VS
SOMEONE YOU
DON’T KNOW

AGGREGATE OPINION
CONSENSUS ORIGIN

EXPERIENCE?
VS
WHAT SOMEONE
HAS SEEN OR
HEARD?

INDEPENDENCE EXPERTISE

Source: Sapient Global Trust Survey March 2011

 WHICH RECOMMENDATION DO YOU
TRUST MOST WHEN CHOOSING A
HOTEL IN A NEW CITY?

29
A HIGH SCHOOL
% 71 %
CLOSEST FRIENDS OR
FRIEND ON FACEBOOK FAMILY BASED ON
YOU HAVEN’T SEEN IN WHAT THEY’VE HEARD
A WHILE, WHO’S
STAYED THERE

Source: Sapient Global Trust Survey March 2011

 SALIENCE IS SHAPED BY A
CONTEXT THAT’S UNCLEAR

EXPERT/ PEOPLE WHO

41 %
UNDERSTANDING

AUTHORITY UNDERSTAND
ME

IT’S GETTING HARDER

PEOPLE
LIKE ME TO TELL WHICH
WHAT LOTS
OF PEOPLE OPINIONS ARE
LIKE PEOPLE RELIABLE AND WHICH
I LIKE ONES AREN’T.

FAMILIARITY

Source: Sapient Global Trust Survey March 2011

BRAND BEHAVIOR IN THE AGE
OF PRISMATIC DISTORTION
OLD PARADIGM
NEW PARADIGM
BRAND RESIDUE
 CUMULATIVE EFFECT?

TRUST OR MISTRUST…

WHY NOT AFFINITY / LACK

THEREOF?
RESONANCE / DEAFNESS?
LOVE / HATE / INDIFFERENCE?

TRUST IS THE PRIME

WHAT TO DO?
GEAR UP BRAND COWBOYS
(AND EMBRACE THE UNCERTAINTY)
SPEND LESS ON SUPERBOWL ADS
AND
MORE ON SUPERBAD SUPPORT

• BEHAVIOR VS WORDS
• DISINTERMEDIATION VS
INTERMEDIATION
• USERS VS SPECULATORS
• OVER TIME VS POINT
BEHAVIOR VS WORDS
 DISINTERMEDIATION
AND
INTERMEDIATION

( ARE THE CROWDS REALLY ALL THAT

WISE? )
 TAKE ONE-TO-ONE TO THE NEXT
LEVEL
(“DIRECT RESPONSE” TO “DIRECT FEEDBACK”)
 WHERE’S THE TWITTER
ENTERPRISE DASHBOARD?
USERS VS SPECULATORS
OVER TIME VS POINT IN TIME
LIFETIME CUSTOMER
CONVERSATIONS INCREASE
LIFETIME CUSTOMER VALUE
 OWNERSHIP / EXPERIENCE
BASED SATISFACTION

• ONLINE REVIEWS AND BRAND

FEEDBACK FIXED IN TIME

‘YOU RECENTLY PURCHASED / USED /

VISITED’

• FEEDBACK HAS TO BE DIRECTLY

SOLICITED AND INCENTED OVER LIFETIME
OF RELATIONSHIP

‘HOW DO YOU FEEL NOW?’

People are finding social media opinion less
reliable

Trust depends on a interrelationship of

contextual factors which determine content’s
value

Marketers have an opportunity to forge a true

one-to-one connection to build lasting value
 CHEERS!
#quest4trust #kmacwithcheese