July 8, 1947

National Board of Estimate

INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE ON FLYING DISK
MOTIVES
Prepared by Office of Research and Analy-
sis, Central Intelligence Group
Copy 1 of 2 d
Purpose
The purpose of this estimate is to assess
the motives of possible nonhuman beings pi-
i loting so-called "flying disks."
Background
From June 1947 there has been a dramatic in-
crease in the sighting of "flying disks" in
the United States, primarily in the Western
states. On 24 June Mr. Kenneth Arnold, a
fire-appliance salesman, took off from
Chehalis Airport in Washington State to as-
sist in the search for a Marine Air Trans-
port C-46 that had disappeared in the
Cascade Mountains. Mr. Arnold observed \
nine disk-shaped objects "skipping"
through the air at a relatively high veloc^
ity. Over subsequent weeks there have been j
a large number of similar sightings, the
best documented of which took place on
July 4. A United Airlines DC-3 passenger-
type aircraft was passed by nine disks
while flying over Idaho on a flight to Seat-

34
tie, Washington. Both pilots and nineteen
passengers observed the disks, which were
described as being larger than the air-
craft .
These and other sightings may possibly be
related to the sightings that have been re-
ported consistently since 194 6 by B-29 crew
on transarctic missions. Photographs have
been made, usually with gun cameras or
ground reconnaissance cameras that sug-
gest an intention on the part of the pilots
of the devices to allow observation and/or
photography to take place. Other objects
are weather balloons distorted by a combi-
nation of wind and pressure effects at high
altitude, flocks of birds reflecting the
sun from their wings while flying in close
formation, and clouds smoothed by wind.
Because of the substantial number of con-
firmed sightings and photographs, this es-
timate of the possible intentions of the
craft occupants has been prepared.

Summary
It is possible that there is a relationship -
between a number of unsolved cases of dis-
appearance and possible flying-disk ac-
tivity, and that the flying disks could
represent an extremely provocative and
quite unusual phenomenon involving the
permanent abduction of citizens into un-
known conditions in a subterranean, under-
sea or outer space context. Should the
35
occupants of the disks increase their level
of activity, as it now seems apparent that
they will, it is probable that the popular
tion will be terrorized, should large-
scale disappearances occur and become
known • The revelation that the government
is helpless to act would then lead to public
panic and a permanent XOBB of governmental
credibility. 1

Detailed Analysis
This analysis will cover a number of cases
of an unusual nature that appear to be re-
lated to the presence of strange nocturnal
lights and/or flying-disk activity.
At 3:15 on the morning of 4 October 1871,
an undertaker named Will iam Robert Loos ley
awoke and took a walk in his garden in the
town of High Wycombe, Buckinghamshire,
England. Mr. Loosley recorded subsequent
events in a manuscript that was locked away
until 1941. The ms. has been authenticated
by British antiquarians. It probably rep-
resents an example of a "probe" from some
sort of nonhuman intelligence.
When he went outside, Mr. Loosley ob-
served a light like a star move across the .
sky. He then heard a clap of thunder, which'^
in view of the fact that the sky was clear, !
struck him as strange. The lighted object j
flew lower, stopped, then dropped in a ,
"falling leaf" pattern into some nearby j

36
 woods. This pattern of motion is alsoxihar-
acter istic of modern flying disks.
The. next morning Mr. Loosley went into
those woods and observed something metal-
lic in a pile of leaves. He soon uncovered a
strange metal container approximately 18
inches long and covered with knobs.
- The thing moved and, making a sound like &
lock clicking, opened what appeared to be
an eye behind a glass lens. Then another eye
opened and emitted a beam of purple light,
A third eye extended a thin rod.
At this point Loosley decided to vacate
the area, and began to move away—running,
no doubt. To his considerable consterna-
; tion the machine followed, leaving a trail
of three small ruts. He observed that simi-
lar ruts crisscrossed a nearby clearing.
The metal box shot a claw out into the brush
and grabbed a rat, which it killed with a
flash of purple light. It then deposited
the carcass in a panel that opened in the
side of the machine.
The device then rushed after Mr. Loosley,
who ran off in a panic, only to find himself
being herded toward a larger machine, which
appeared from a nearby clearing. He ob-
served a "moon-like" device in the sky
which seemed to be signaling with lights.
He managed to escape from the machines and
return home. The next night he observed a
light come down from the sky, then rise up'
again and disappear into the clouds.
The fact that this account was written in
37
1871 greatly diminishes the likelihood of
hoax. Robots of the sort described are only
just now being speculated about in circles
considering methods we might employ to ex-
plore planets such as Mars and Venus. It may
be that Mr. Loosley observed a robot on a re-
connaissance mission, and that it has now
been followed by a larger expedition*. If
so, we can anticipate that it will be ex?
ploratory in nature as well, and that it
will almost certainly center on analysis of
the human species, which would have been
the most interesting discovery made by the
earlier reconnaissance.
It may be that human beings have since been
successfully taken by strange machines.
The first seemingly related case of dis-
appearance inU.S. history took place on 23
September 1880 near the town of Gallatin,
Tennessee. At approximately three-thirty
on that sunny afternoon, Mr. David Lang, a
farmer, dematerialized in front of five
witnesses, including his wife, his two
children, his brother-in-law and a local
judge.
The brother-in-law and the judge had just
pulled up in a carriage. Mr. Lang moved to*
ward them across a field, followed by his
family. Without warning, he simply ceased
to exist. There was no cry, no sign of dis-
tress. Mrs. Lang, distraught, rushed up and
pounded the ground where he had been walk-
ing. All that afternoon and into the night
the field was searched. Subsequently the
38
county surveyor determined that there were
no hidden caves or sinkholes in the area of
the disappearance.
The subsequent April, seven months later,
the children heard their father cryingdis^
tantly underneath the field. He seemed des-
perate and tortured, and was begging for
Help. His voice gradually died away and was
not heard again. Where he had last been
seen, there was a circle of withered yellow
grass twenty feet in diameter.
The family moved away from the farm.
It can be surmised that Mr. Lang was not re*
moved aboveground, but rather was taken
into the earth and kept alive there for some
months, judging from the cries that were
heard the next April. What the poor man suf-
fered during that time, and what finally
put him out of his misery, can scarcely be
imagined. It may be possible that another
robot machine was sent, which waylaid this
man from underneath the earth, in view of
the fact that the device sent in 1871 had
failed to capture a human being by more
straightforward means.
In 1909 a child of eleven, Oliver Thomas,
disappeared upon walking out of a Christmas
Eve party at his home in Wales. Other party-
goers heard a scream that seemed to come
from the air above the house. No trace of the
child was ever found. Was this an example of
ambush from above?
In 1924 two British pilots crashed in the
desert not far from Baghdad. Their craft
30
was located shortly thereafter, and foot-
steps were discovered leading away from it.
The footsteps stopped in the sand. There
were no signs of a skirmish. No trace of the
pilots was ever located. Inviewof the fact
that there were bandits in the area where
this disappearance took place, it is possi-
ble that the pilots met with foul play. How-
ever, British colonial authorities
investigated the case thoroughly over a pe-
riod of months, and found absolutely no
trace of the men. None of their equipment or
personal effects ever appeared for sale in
the souks. British authorities have not yet
closed the case.
In the winter of 1930 a profoundly dis-
turbing incident took place in Canada.
Trapper Arnaud Laurent andhis son observed
a strange light crossing the northern sky.
It appeared to be headed for the Lake An-
jikuni area. The two trappers describe it
as being alternately bullet-shaped and
cylinder-shaped. It can be assumed from
this that it was an object of irregular con-
figuration that was tumbling as it moved.
Another trapper named Joe Labelle had
snowshoed into the village of the Lake An-
j ikuni people, and been chilled to discover
that the normally bustling community was
silent, and not a soul was moving in the
streets. Even the sled dogs, which would
normally have bayed welcome, were silent.
The shanties were choked with snow, and
not a chimney showed smoke.
40
 The trapper found the village's kayaks
tied up on the shore of the lake. Inside the
Shanties the trapper found a further sur-
prise: there were meals left hanging over
fires, long grown old and moldy, apparently
abandoned as they were being cooked. The
men's rifles were still standing by the
-doors. This really frightened the trapper,
because he knew that these people would
never leave their precious weapons behind.
He reported his discovery to the Royal Ca-
nadian Mounted Police, who investigated
further. They discovered that the town's
dogs had died of hunger, chained beneath a
tree and covered by a snowdrift. More dis-
turbingly , the town graveyard had been emp-
tied. The graves were now yawning pits-
Despite the frozen ground, the graves had
been opened and the dead removed.
The RCMP continues the case opened to. this
day. A check with their records department
indicated that the matter remains un-
solved , and despite a search of the whole of
Canada and inquiries throughout the world/
not a trace of the missing twelve hundred
men, women and children has ever been
found.
> - There are many other cases of disappear-
ance in the air and at sea, but this small
group appears to be the most unusual and the
most likely to be related to an other-
worldly presence.
Unfortunately we know nothing of the fate
of most of these people. Only in the case of
41
ui»ju^t
Mr. Lang can we even speculate. He was ap-
parently left to languish in some sort of
subterranean prison, presumably dying
when his food and water ran out.
Were the hardy Eskimos moved to some other
world, to plant the human seed among the
stars? Was Mr. Lang examined, tested and
then abandoned to his fate? And what of the
little boy, and the two pilots? Did they end
up in machines similar to the one that men-
aced Mr. Loosley?
It is possible that we are observing the
outcome of a scientific study of the human
species that uses stealth to accomplish its
end of obtaining human specimens.
The fact that human specimens are gath-
ered at all indicates that the beings doing
the study consider us animals. That they
are not returned reveals that our lives are
of limited value to the nonhuman beings, if
that is what they are. That the whole proc-
ess takes place only in secret indicates
that the beings realize that we woul<3 re-
sist if we knew the truth. In other words,
they are doing this despite the fact that
they know we are sentient creatures -
It is likely that the public will ini-
tially greet the appearance of aliens with
welcome and delight. Should arbitrary ab-
ductions take place, however, the cheering
will shortly become a collective scream of
horror.
People will then demand protection, look-
ing to the government—and specifically the
42
Army Air Force—to provide it. Given our
present lack of knowledge, the Air Force
will in all probability fail to do so. This
will result in a loss of faith on the part of
the American public at least as great as
that experienced by the Third Reich in the
last quarter of 1944, when even the most
propagandized population groups finally
understood that Germany would lose the war.
Thus we will be faced with a dispirited and
hostile public on the one hand, and cruel
and all-powerful aliens on the other.

Conclusion
If these cases of disappearance are indeed
related to the flying disks, the conclusion
can be drawn that the strangers are inter-
ested in us but do not have any regard for us.
This is obviously a dangerous and highly
undesirable state of affairs, and steps
should be taken to correct it at once.

Re conroenda tions
1. The public should be insulated from any
certain knowledge that the disks are
real until such time as we have a clear.
- understanding of the nature and motives
of their occupants, and can effectively
maintain control over our own land and
airspace, offering the public the pro-
tection that it mandates.
2. Every effort should be made to obtain
samples of a flying disk as soon as pos-
43
 sible, barring only hostile military
action. This should be viewed by the AAF
as its number one worldwide priority.
3. Because of the extremely disturbing na-
ture of the phenomenon—and our help-
lessness—the whole affair should be
given the highest classification rating
that we possess, and should also be the
subject of a rigorous propaganda cam-
paign centered on denial. This campaign
should be socially pervasive, so that it
will continue to be effective even if a
considerable number of disappearances
take place.
4 . Under no circumstances whatsoever must
the public be allowed to become aware of
the probable seriousness of this situa-
tion, and of our impotence to act. The
only way to be certain that they will re-
main ignorant is to impose the highest
level of security ever achieved. If we
are to maintain the impression that the
government can provide essential secu-
rity, this must be done at any and all
cost.
5 . Should a disk land, or any debris be left
behind, extreme efforts must be made to
obscure the real meaning of the event.
The fact that the strangers are real must
not be revealed to the public until we
understand their motives, and have
gained effective control of their ac-
tivities within the sovereign territory
of the United States of America.

44
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