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The world’s next largest retail market – part 2
Marcos Gouvêa de Souza - CEO, GS&MD - Gouvêa de Souza
With a population of 1.3 billion people, less than half of them living in cities, China is a country filled with contrasts, specially the
poorness of the rural regions when compared to some urban areas, an issue the local government has been trying to lessen.
Forecasts point to a growing population, in spite of the strict birth control that authorizes only one child per family: in 2040, there
will be 1.54 billion Chinese.
The strong growth of retailing in the country, with a 21.8% sales rise in 2008, 15.5% in 2009 and 18.4% in 2010, however, is
one of the most important characteristics of this economy. Soon, the world’s second largest market considering the Purchase
Parity Power (PPP) will become the world’s largest retail market.
The families’ spending accounts for 37.5% of the country’s GDP and is a little bit above US$ 1,600 per person, and 59% of it
are dedicated to food. As a reference, in Brazil food consumption goes closer to 40% of the total family spending and the more
mature a market is, the smaller the market share of food over the total market.
For a long time foreign investments in the Chinese retail were controlled, as an alternative to the creation of a protection to
local players: foreigners should ask for clearance for new stores. Walmart, for instance, opened its first store in 1996, soon after
starting its operations in Brazil. The benefits modern retail formats offer to population, as cleaner shops, better product offer and
more price competition, made, from December 2004 on, the government allow the expansion of foreign chains through organic
expansion or joint-ventures with local players.
But even today, retail is a highly fragmented segment. In the food sector, the top five players account for less than 4% of the
market, in spite of an expressive number of stores and strong sales. China Resources Enterprise, with over 4.500 shops in the
country and sales over US$ 10 billion, owns little more than 1% of the total food market. Bailian’s Lianhua chain, has around
5,500 stores and its sales are close to US$ 8 billion. French Auchan has little more than 200 stores; Carrefour, around 600
stores; and Walmart, more than 300. Walmart also runs TrustMart chain, purchased in 2007.
The dominant store format in the Chinese food retail, decisively, is the small moms and pops stores, but the presence of
supermarkets, supercentes, hypermarkets, cash&carry stores and warehouse clubs grows by the minute, as well as convenience
stores in the cities. Specially due to the foreign presence and local players who, inspired by the competition, have updated their
operations.
To cope with the vigorous growth of the demand, players have been basic in the service offer, focusing on products, prices
and promotions. In the more modern food stores, all the perishable categories have been on the spot, with a broad product offer.
Hypermarkets and supercenters have been mainly in the most important urban centers, what demanded the creation of
private-owned bus fleets to serve customers. These stores are several stories up and, clearly, the food stories account for most
of the traffic, specially in the perishable areas, with an interesting offer even of living fishes, snakes, frogs and turtles, as well as
a plethora of fishes and other dry animals.
This preference for natural, non-packaged goods, lead to, in some stores, lanes to purchase rice, flour and fruits in bulk, bagged
by the consumers themselves; or to purchase eggs, also in bulk, as they’ve been perceived as fresher and are preferred over
the pre-packaged found in the same stores.
Another characteristic is that credit alternatives are very limited, basically through banks and credit card companies, as there
is still a strict government control inhibiting expansion and spending, as there are not more aggressive tools. Even the access to
credit cards is very limited, and only to residents. In some stores there is a special check-out for international credit card holders.
And as credit becomes more widespread, with a more decisive retail action in this sector, the growth potential will be explosive,
leveraging the forecast this will be the world’s largest retail market.
In the next week, we will return to this issue.
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