Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com.

ValuEngine is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Newtown, PA. ValuEngine

covers over 7,000 stocks every day.

A variety of newsletters and portfolios containing Suttmeier's detailed research, stock picks,
and commentary can be found HERE

To unsubscribe from this free email newsletter list, please click HERE.

March 29, 2011 – Dow Theory Could Decide Whether or not there’s more Upside
The Dow Transports is within striking distance of a potential close above its February 17th
closing high at 5298.10. If that happens and is followed by the Dow Industrial Average closing
above its February 18th closing high at 12,391.25, we will have a Dow Theory Buy Signal. The
biggest laggard is the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX), which has a negative weekly
chart, which stays negative given a close this week below the five-week modified moving
average at 439.10, which was tested on Monday. The Sox remains below its 50-day simple
moving average at 445.89. This Thursday is month end and quarter end, so on Friday I will have
new monthly and quarterly value levels, pivots and risky levels.
Stocks Remain Overvalued Fundamentally – We are not operating under a ValuEngine Valuation
Warning, but 59.0% of all stocks are overvalued. In addition all 16 sectors are overvalued with 5 by
double-digit percentages.
10-Year Note – (3.448) The short term rise in yields tested the 50-day simple moving average at
3.460. The weekly chart shows an important support at the 200-week simple moving average at 3.554.
The five-week modified moving average is resistance at 3.414. Today’s value level is 3.517.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Comex Gold – ($1420.0) The 50-day simple moving average is $1387.0 with daily, semiannual and
weekly risky levels at $1450.4, $1452.6 and $1469.8.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Nymex Crude Oil – ($103.77) The daily chart shows a potential double-top just shy of my semiannual
risky level at $107.14. My annual pivots are $101.92 and $99.91. My weekly pivot is $105.31.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

The Euro – (1.4088) The weekly chart shows the euro overbought versus the dollar with the 200-week
simple moving average as support at 1.3967. My weekly pivot is 1.4119 with the November 4th high as
resistance at 1.4281. Today’s risky level is 1.4362.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Daily Dow: (12,198) My annual value level lags at 11,491 with the February 18th closing high at
12,391.25 and this week’s risky level at 12,488. Given a Dow Theory Buy Signal and a new high for
the laggard SOX, the upside is to my annual risky level at 13,890. Without a Dow Theory Buy and
given a weekly close below 11,491 the downside is to semiannual value levels at 10,959 and 9,449.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Key Levels for the Major Equity Averages
• The Dow Industrial Average (12,198) My annual value level is 11,491 with my weekly risky
level at 12,488.
• The S&P 500 (1310.2) My annual value level is 1210.7 with daily and weekly risky levels at
1340.1 and 1353.7.
• The NASDAQ (2731) The 50-day simple moving average is 2743 with daily and weekly risky
levels at 2782 and 2830.
• The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (2303) The 50-day simple moving average is 2318 with daily and
weekly risky levels at 2346 and 2389.
• Dow Transports (5229) My annual pivot is 5179 with weekly and daily risky levels at 5295 and
5332, and the February 17th closing high at 5298.10.
• The Russell 2000 (821.77) My annual value level is 784.16 with daily and weekly risky levels at
839.79 and 857.75.
• The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) (436.75) I show no nearby value levels with
the five-week modified moving average at 439.10 and the 50-day simple moving average at
445.89, and daily and weekly risky levels at 445.55.
That’s today’s Four in Four. Have a great day.

Richard Suttmeier
Chief Market Strategist
ValuEngine.com
(800) 381-5576

To unsubscribe from this free email newsletter list, please click HERE.

Send your comments and questions to Rsuttmeier@Gmail.com. For more information on our products
and services visit www.ValuEngine.com

As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com.
I have daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as
well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the
ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. You can go to http://www.valuengine.com/nl/mainnl to review sample issues
and find out more about my research.

“I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.”