Topic: Statistical Analysis of Stock

Stock: TATA Consultancy Services Pvt. Ltd

Index Used: SENSEX

Data: Monthly data from Jan 2007 to Mar 2011 has been used for analysis.

Data Source: http://in.finance.yahoo.com/

Methodology: 1 - Standard Deviation of the stock is calculated to measure the return

2 - Stock Beta calculation has been done to measure the stock volatility

Team: Pardeep Dhiman, Ashley Koshy, Narayanan

as been used for analysis.

ated to measure the return variation

measure the stock volatility

Date Open High Low Close Volume Adj Close
3/1/2011 1119 1164 1058.25 1118.2 207600 1118.2
2/1/2011 1157.2 1195.95 1056.1 1112.95 210700 1112.95
1/3/2011 1165 1221 1087.3 1157.15 215600 1157.15 Adjusted Close price will b
12/1/2010 1067.55 1179 1050 1165.05 152900 1165.05 Data Points: 51
11/1/2010 1053 1107 1002 1076.7 133300 1076.7
10/1/2010 928.8 1069.6 922.55 1051.8 300500 1049.8 Start Date: 2-Jan-2007
9/1/2010 844 1006 835 922.55 314200 920.8 End Date: 1-Mar-2011
8/2/2010 846 883.4 829.7 843.85 216800 842.25
7/1/2010 748 858.9 725.5 841.1 364500 839.5
6/1/2010 742 797.45 732.9 751.15 154400 747.97
5/3/2010 756 777 692 742 212100 735.07
4/1/2010 786.9 834.9 730 766 333400 758.84
3/2/2010 763.1 844 755.85 780.8 304700 773.51
2/1/2010 735.45 777 709.6 761 190500 753.89
1/4/2010 750.7 816.4 696.6 735.45 460000 728.58
12/1/2009 696 755.95 677.35 749.75 261700 740.78
11/3/2009 625 711.4 602.25 687.2 369000 678.98
10/1/2009 620 656.85 556.6 626.2 635500 618.71
9/1/2009 534 621.9 519 619.35 627900 610.03
8/3/2009 527 559.9 435.55 527 635900 519.07
7/1/2009 380 540.1 368 526.4 853300 518.48
6/1/2009 680 805 355.25 389.7 461600 382.24
5/4/2009 600 794.7 600 699.75 404900 681.95
4/1/2009 505.25 627.2 505.25 623.2 418700 607.35
3/2/2009 475 585 439.15 540 267300 526.27
2/2/2009 507 526.8 456 480.6 228200 468.38
1/1/2009 485 556.9 466.2 511.95 404400 498.93
12/1/2008 569 591.7 460 478.1 392300 463.14
11/3/2008 560 570 456.1 558.05 471800 540.59
10/1/2008 670 682.8 418 537.45 582700 520.64
9/1/2008 810 875 575 662.75 277400 638.45
8/1/2008 829 870 782.5 812.45 206500 782.67
7/1/2008 858.8 890 719.1 832.55 321700 802.03
6/2/2008 1028 1054 800 858.8 339100 824.36
5/2/2008 930 1047.95 874.9 1029.25 469000 982.61
4/1/2008 815 1038.7 811 919.55 312500 877.88
3/3/2008 869.5 899 755 810.9 196300 774.16
2/1/2008 882 987 821.15 874.3 177700 834.68
1/1/2008 1065.1 1078 730 875.25 167200 835.59
12/3/2007 1015 1124.95 1002.2 1083.35 261100 1030.38
11/1/2007 1065 1065 935 1013.95 217800 964.37
10/1/2007 1060 1151 1000 1037.9 494500 987.15
9/3/2007 1071 1086.9 978 1056.75 312800 1002.35
8/1/2007 1145 1188.4 998 1065 251700 1010.18
7/2/2007 1152 1200 1100.7 1158.45 258600 1098.82
6/4/2007 1229 1244 1118.2 1149.25 417900 1087.33
5/3/2007 1275 1299.5 1205 1208.6 252700 1139.69
4/2/2007 1223 1330 1171.1 1265.7 283400 1193.53
3/1/2007 1200 1320 1129.85 1231.2 279800 1161
2/1/2007 1300 1350 1170 1188.45 685200 1120.69
1/2/2007 1250 1399 1200 1278.6 277800 1205.7
Adjusted Close price will be used for analysis

Data Points: 51

Start Date: 2-Jan-2007

End Date: 1-Mar-2011

Date Open High Low Close Volume Adj Close
3/1/2011 17982.28 18858.3 17792.17 18815.64 18400 18815.64
2/1/2011 18425.18 18690.97 17295.62 17823.4 23200 17823.4
1/3/2011 20621.61 20664.8 18038.48 18327.76 16600 18327.76 Adjusted Close value of SE
analysis
12/1/2010 19529.99 20552.03 19074.57 20509.09 13800 20509.09
11/1/2010 20272.49 21108.64 18954.82 19521.25 14600 19521.25 Data Points: 51
10/1/2010 20094.1 20854.55 19768.96 20032.34 14400 20032.34
Start Date: 2-Jan-2007
9/1/2010 18027.12 20267.98 18027.12 20069.12 16600 20069.12
8/2/2010 17911.31 18475.27 17819.99 17971.12 14900 17971.12 End Date: 1-Mar-2011
7/1/2010 17679.34 18237.56 17395.58 17868.29 15600 17868.29
6/1/2010 16942.82 17919.62 16318.39 17700.9 23500 17700.9
5/3/2010 17536.86 17536.86 15960.15 16944.63 19700 16944.63
4/1/2010 17555.04 18047.86 17276.8 17558.71 13600 17558.71
3/2/2010 16438.45 17793.01 16438.45 17527.77 18100 17527.77
2/1/2010 16339.32 16669.25 15651.99 16429.55 20100 16429.55
1/4/2010 17473.45 17790.33 15982.08 16357.96 21900 16357.96
12/1/2009 16947.46 17530.94 16577.78 17464.81 19800 17464.81
11/3/2009 15838.63 17290.48 15330.56 16926.22 25000 16926.22
10/1/2009 17186.2 17457.26 15805.2 15896.28 31500 15896.28
9/1/2009 15691.27 17142.52 15356.72 17126.84 28500 17126.84
8/3/2009 15694.78 16002.46 14684.45 15666.64 29700 15666.64
7/1/2009 14493.84 15732.81 13219.99 15670.31 36300 15670.31
6/1/2009 14790.89 15600.3 14016.95 14493.84 40300 14493.84
5/4/2009 11635.24 14930.54 11621.3 14625.25 54700 14625.25
4/1/2009 9745.77 11492.1 9546.29 11403.25 52900 11403.25
3/2/2009 8762.88 10127.09 8047.17 9708.5 46000 9708.5
2/2/2009 9363.58 9724.87 8619.22 8891.61 36600 8891.61
1/2/2009 9973.06 10469.72 8631.6 9424.24 61400 9424.24
12/1/2008 9162.94 10188.54 8467.43 9647.31 56300 9647.31
11/3/2008 10209.37 10945.41 8316.39 9092.72 48300 9092.72
10/1/2008 13006.72 13203.86 7697.39 9788.06 46400 9788.06
9/1/2008 14412.99 15107.01 12153.55 12860.43 31700 12860.43
8/1/2008 14064.26 15579.78 14002.43 14564.53 25200 14564.53
7/1/2008 13480.02 15130.09 12514.99 14355.75 30300 14355.75
6/2/2008 16591.46 16632.72 13405.54 13461.6 24300 13461.6
5/2/2008 17560.15 17735.7 16196.02 16415.57 20100 16415.57
4/1/2008 15771.72 17480.74 15297.96 17287.31 21100 17287.31
3/3/2008 17227.56 17227.56 14677.24 15644.44 25900 15644.44
2/1/2008 17820.67 18895.34 16457.74 17578.72 16800 17578.72
1/2/2008 20393.1 21206.77 15332.42 17648.71 21400 17648.71
12/3/2007 19547.09 20498.11 18886.4 20286.99 13800 20286.99
11/1/2007 20130.23 20204.21 18182.83 19363.19 16600 19363.19
10/1/2007 17356.99 20238.16 17144.58 19837.99 30500 19837.99
9/3/2007 15401.99 17361.47 15323.05 17291.1 20600 17291.1
8/1/2007 15344.02 15542.4 13779.88 15318.6 16700 15318.6
7/2/2007 14685.16 15868.85 14638.88 15550.99 18500 15550.99
6/1/2007 14610.28 14683.36 13946.99 14650.51 14300 14650.51
5/3/2007 13987.77 14576.37 13562.95 14544.46 15300 14544.46
4/2/2007 12811.93 14383.72 12425.52 13872.37 18400 13872.37
3/1/2007 13013.74 13386.95 12316.1 13072.1 18400 13072.1
2/1/2007 14124.36 14723.88 12800.91 12938.09 19000 12938.09
1/2/2007 13827.77 14325.92 13303.22 14090.92 16100 14090.92
Adjusted Close value of SENSEX will be used for
analysis

Data Points: 51

Start Date: 2-Jan-2007

End Date: 1-Mar-2011

Date Adj Close (TCS) Adj Close (Sensex) Rate of Return (TCS) Rate of Return (Sensex)
3/1/2011 1118.2 18815.64 0.004717 0.055671
2/1/2011 1112.95 17823.4 -0.038197 -0.027519
1/3/2011 1157.15 18327.76 -0.006781 -0.106359
12/1/2010 1165.05 20509.09 0.082056 0.050603
11/1/2010 1076.7 19521.25 0.025624 -0.025513
10/1/2010 1049.8 20032.34 0.140096 -0.001833
9/1/2010 920.8 20069.12 0.093262 0.116743
8/2/2010 842.25 17971.12 0.003276 0.005755
7/1/2010 839.5 17868.29 0.122371 0.009457
6/1/2010 747.97 17700.9 0.017549 0.044632
5/3/2010 735.07 16944.63 -0.031324 -0.034973
4/1/2010 758.84 17558.71 -0.018965 0.001765
3/2/2010 773.51 17527.77 0.026025 0.066844
2/1/2010 753.89 16429.55 0.034739 0.004376
1/4/2010 728.58 16357.96 -0.016469 -0.063376
12/1/2009 740.78 17464.81 0.091019 0.031820
11/3/2009 678.98 16926.22 0.097412 0.064791
10/1/2009 618.71 15896.28 0.014229 -0.071850
9/1/2009 610.03 17126.84 0.175236 0.093204
8/3/2009 519.07 15666.64 0.001138 -0.000234
7/1/2009 518.48 15670.31 0.356425 0.081170
6/1/2009 382.24 14493.84 -0.439490 -0.008985
5/4/2009 681.95 14625.25 0.122829 0.282551
4/1/2009 607.35 11403.25 0.154065 0.174564
3/2/2009 526.27 9708.5 0.123596 0.091872
2/2/2009 468.38 8891.61 -0.061231 -0.056517
1/1/2009 498.93 9424.24 0.077277 -0.023123
12/1/2008 463.14 9647.31 -0.143269 0.060993
11/3/2008 540.59 9092.72 0.038318 -0.071040
10/1/2008 520.64 9788.06 -0.184525 -0.238901
9/1/2008 638.45 12860.43 -0.184267 -0.117003
8/1/2008 782.67 14564.53 -0.024139 0.014543
7/1/2008 802.03 14355.75 -0.027088 0.066422
6/2/2008 824.36 13461.6 -0.161051 -0.179949
5/2/2008 982.61 16415.57 0.119299 -0.050427
4/1/2008 877.88 17287.31 0.133977 0.105013
3/3/2008 774.16 15644.44 -0.072507 -0.110035
2/1/2008 834.68 17578.72 -0.001089 -0.003966
1/1/2008 835.59 17648.71 -0.189047 -0.130048
12/3/2007 1030.38 20286.99 0.068449 0.047709
11/1/2007 964.37 19363.19 -0.023077 -0.023934
10/1/2007 987.15 19837.99 -0.015164 0.147295
9/3/2007 1002.35 17291.1 -0.007751 0.128765
8/1/2007 1010.18 15318.6 -0.080668 -0.014944
7/2/2007 1098.82 15550.99 0.010567 0.061464
6/4/2007 1087.33 14650.51 -0.045942 0.007291
5/3/2007 1139.69 14544.46 -0.045110 0.048448
4/2/2007 1193.53 13872.37 0.028019 0.061220
3/1/2007 1161 13072.1 0.035969 0.010358
2/1/2007 1120.69 12938.09 -0.070507 -0.081814
1/2/2007 1205.7 14090.92
Beta
0.693595
Analysis
A Beta value of 0.69 suggests that stock is less
volatile than market in general.

SLOPE function has been used to calculate stock beta

Example:
Stock Beta = 0.69
Market % Return Stock % Return
10% 6.90%
-8% -5.52%

If market return is 10% then stock return will be 6.9%

If market return is -8% then stock return will be -5.52%

Such stocks have Lower Return but Lower Risk also when
compared to overall market fluctuations
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.526986871
R Square 0.2777151622
Adjusted R Square 0.2626675615
Standard Error 0.1026729898
Observations 50

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 0.194556053414 0.1945560534 18.45577685 8.4327616402E-05
Residual 48 0.506003656195 0.0105417428
Total 49 0.700559709609

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%

Intercept -0.0006411692 0.014607155643 -0.0438941839 0.9651708473 -0.0300108234999
Sensex (x variable) 0.6935954594 0.161450753467 4.2960187208 8.432762E-05 0.36897696858436

Relationship between Sensex & TCS stock

Using regression analysis to produce an equation that will predict a dependent variable using one or mo
Equation of the form of: Y=b1x1+b2x2+….+A

Using the coefficients values the equation for TCS to Sensex relationship will be:

y = 0.693x - 0.00064

NOTE:
- Relationship can be said to be linear in nature
- It is a positive relationship which can be derived from the slope gradient (refer Scatter Plot - TCS Cha
- It is a strong relationship which is evident from a R square value of .277
- There are few outlier points also noted in the scatter plot
 Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
0.0287284851 -0.0300108235 0.0287284851
1.0182139502 0.3689769686 1.0182139502

ween Sensex & TCS stock

ndent variable using one or more independent variables.

nt (refer Scatter Plot - TCS Chart)

 TCS
0.50

0.40

0.30

0.20
f(x) = 0.69359545938608 x − 0.000641169175445
R² = 0.277715162241824
0.10 TCS
Linear (TCS)
0.00
-0.30 -0.20 -0.10 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30
-0.10

-0.20

-0.30

-0.40

-0.50
 Analysis

1) Relationship between Sensex & TCS seems to be linear

2) Strong relationship which is evident from the high R Square

3) Relationship is positive as indicated by the upward trent line

TCS 4) Most of the points fall around the trend line

Linear (TCS) though there are some clear outliers also

0.30
 TCS SENSEX
Average Rate of Average Rate of
Return 0.00620 Return 0.00986
Variance 0.01430 Variance 0.00825
Standard Deviation Standard Deviation
(calculated) 0.11957 (calculated) 0.09085
Standard Deviation Standard Deviation
(formula) 0.11957 (formula) 0.09085

Adj Close Rate of Return Rate of Return Deviation - Deviation ^ 2 -

Date (TCS) Adj Close (Sensex) (TCS) (Sensex) TCS TCS
3/1/2011 1118.2 18815.64 0.004717 0.055671 -0.15% 0.000002
2/1/2011 1112.95 17823.4 -0.038197 -0.027519 -4.44% 0.001971
1/3/2011 1157.15 18327.76 -0.006781 -0.106359 -1.30% 0.000168
12/1/2010 1165.05 20509.09 0.082056 0.050603 7.59% 0.005755
11/1/2010 1076.7 19521.25 0.025624 -0.025513 1.94% 0.000377
10/1/2010 1049.8 20032.34 0.140096 -0.001833 13.39% 0.017929
9/1/2010 920.8 20069.12 0.093262 0.116743 8.71% 0.007580
8/2/2010 842.25 17971.12 0.003276 0.005755 -0.29% 0.000009
7/1/2010 839.5 17868.29 0.122371 0.009457 11.62% 0.013496
6/1/2010 747.97 17700.9 0.017549 0.044632 1.14% 0.000129
5/3/2010 735.07 16944.63 -0.031324 -0.034973 -3.75% 0.001408
4/1/2010 758.84 17558.71 -0.018965 0.001765 -2.52% 0.000633
3/2/2010 773.51 17527.77 0.026025 0.066844 1.98% 0.000393
2/1/2010 753.89 16429.55 0.034739 0.004376 2.85% 0.000815
1/4/2010 728.58 16357.96 -0.016469 -0.063376 -2.27% 0.000514
12/1/2009 740.78 17464.81 0.091019 0.031820 8.48% 0.007195
11/3/2009 678.98 16926.22 0.097412 0.064791 9.12% 0.008320
10/1/2009 618.71 15896.28 0.014229 -0.071850 0.80% 0.000064
9/1/2009 610.03 17126.84 0.175236 0.093204 16.90% 0.028574
8/3/2009 519.07 15666.64 0.001138 -0.000234 -0.51% 0.000026
7/1/2009 518.48 15670.31 0.356425 0.081170 35.02% 0.122659
6/1/2009 382.24 14493.84 -0.439490 -0.008985 -44.57% 0.198637
5/4/2009 681.95 14625.25 0.122829 0.282551 11.66% 0.013603
4/1/2009 607.35 11403.25 0.154065 0.174564 14.79% 0.021865
3/2/2009 526.27 9708.5 0.123596 0.091872 11.74% 0.013782
2/2/2009 468.38 8891.61 -0.061231 -0.056517 -6.74% 0.004547
1/1/2009 498.93 9424.24 0.077277 -0.023123 7.11% 0.005052
12/1/2008 463.14 9647.31 -0.143269 0.060993 -14.95% 0.022340
11/3/2008 540.59 9092.72 0.038318 -0.071040 3.21% 0.001032
10/1/2008 520.64 9788.06 -0.184525 -0.238901 -19.07% 0.036375
9/1/2008 638.45 12860.43 -0.184267 -0.117003 -19.05% 0.036277
8/1/2008 782.67 14564.53 -0.024139 0.014543 -3.03% 0.000920
7/1/2008 802.03 14355.75 -0.027088 0.066422 -3.33% 0.001108
 6/2/2008 824.36 13461.6 -0.161051 -0.179949 -16.72% 0.027972
5/2/2008 982.61 16415.57 0.119299 -0.050427 11.31% 0.012792
4/1/2008 877.88 17287.31 0.133977 0.105013 12.78% 0.016328
3/3/2008 774.16 15644.44 -0.072507 -0.110035 -7.87% 0.006194
2/1/2008 834.68 17578.72 -0.001089 -0.003966 -0.73% 0.000053
1/1/2008 835.59 17648.71 -0.189047 -0.130048 -19.52% 0.038120
12/3/2007 1030.38 20286.99 0.068449 0.047709 6.23% 0.003875
11/1/2007 964.37 19363.19 -0.023077 -0.023934 -2.93% 0.000857
10/1/2007 987.15 19837.99 -0.015164 0.147295 -2.14% 0.000456
9/3/2007 1002.35 17291.1 -0.007751 0.128765 -1.39% 0.000195
8/1/2007 1010.18 15318.6 -0.080668 -0.014944 -8.69% 0.007546
7/2/2007 1098.82 15550.99 0.010567 0.061464 0.44% 0.000019
6/4/2007 1087.33 14650.51 -0.045942 0.007291 -5.21% 0.002719
5/3/2007 1139.69 14544.46 -0.045110 0.048448 -5.13% 0.002632
4/2/2007 1193.53 13872.37 0.028019 0.061220 2.18% 0.000476
3/1/2007 1161 13072.1 0.035969 0.010358 2.98% 0.000886
2/1/2007 1120.69 12938.09 -0.070507 -0.081814 -7.67% 0.005884
1/2/2007 1205.7 14090.92
 Ref Normal Normal
Deviation - Deviation ^ 2 - Normal TCS Dist - TCS Sensex Dist -
Sensex Sensex Dist (X) (Y) (X) Sensex (Y)
4.58% 0.002099 -5.0 -0.5916555 0.00001 -0.44438 0.00002
-3.74% 0.001397 -4.8 -0.5677414 0.00003 -0.42621 0.00004
-11.62% 0.013507 -4.6 -0.5438273 0.00008 -0.40804 0.00011
4.07% 0.001660 -4.4 -0.5199131 0.00021 -0.38987 0.00027
-3.54% 0.001251 -4.2 -0.495999 0.00049 -0.37170 0.00065
-1.17% 0.000137 -4.0 -0.4720849 0.00112 -0.35353 0.00147
10.69% 0.011424 -3.8 -0.4481708 0.00244 -0.33536 0.00321
-0.41% 0.000017 -3.6 -0.4242566 0.00512 -0.31719 0.00674
-0.04% 0.000000 -3.4 -0.4003425 0.01031 -0.29903 0.01356
3.48% 0.001209 -3.2 -0.3764284 0.01994 -0.28086 0.02624
-4.48% 0.002010 -3.0 -0.3525143 0.03706 -0.26269 0.04878
-0.81% 0.000066 -2.8 -0.3286001 0.06620 -0.24452 0.08713
5.70% 0.003247 -2.6 -0.304686 0.11360 -0.22635 0.14951
-0.55% 0.000030 -2.4 -0.2807719 0.18729 -0.20818 0.24650
-7.32% 0.005364 -2.2 -0.2568577 0.29668 -0.19001 0.39048
2.20% 0.000482 -2.0 -0.2329436 0.45154 -0.17184 0.59430
5.49% 0.003017 -1.8 -0.2090295 0.66028 -0.15367 0.86903
-8.17% 0.006676 -1.6 -0.1851154 0.92766 -0.13550 1.22094
8.33% 0.006946 -1.4 -0.1612012 1.25221 -0.11733 1.64810
-1.01% 0.000102 -1.2 -0.1372871 1.62403 -0.09916 2.13747
7.13% 0.005085 -1.0 -0.113373 2.02366 -0.08099 2.66345
-1.88% 0.000355 -0.8 -0.0894589 2.42277 -0.06282 3.18873
27.27% 0.074360 -0.6 -0.0655447 2.78684 -0.04465 3.66791
16.47% 0.027127 -0.4 -0.0416306 3.07994 -0.02648 4.05367
8.20% 0.006726 -0.2 -0.0177165 3.27039 -0.00831 4.30434
-6.64% 0.004406 0.0 0.0061977 3.33646 0.00986 4.39129
-3.30% 0.001088 0.2 0.0301118 3.27039 0.02803 4.30434
5.11% 0.002615 0.4 0.0540259 3.07994 0.04620 4.05367
-8.09% 0.006545 0.6 0.07794 2.78684 0.06437 3.66791
-24.88% 0.061882 0.8 0.1018542 2.42277 0.08254 3.18873
-12.69% 0.016094 1.0 0.1257683 2.02366 0.10071 2.66345
0.47% 0.000022 1.2 0.1496824 1.62403 0.11888 2.13747
5.66% 0.003199 1.4 0.1735965 1.25221 0.13705 1.64810
-18.98% 0.036028 1.6 0.1975107 0.92766 0.15522 1.22094
-6.03% 0.003634 1.8 0.2214248 0.66028 0.17339 0.86903
9.52% 0.009054 2.0 0.2453389 0.45154 0.19156 0.59430
-11.99% 0.014375 2.2 0.2692531 0.29668 0.20973 0.39048
-1.38% 0.000191 2.4 0.2931672 0.18729 0.22790 0.24650
-13.99% 0.019574 2.6 0.3170813 0.11360 0.24607 0.14951
3.78% 0.001433 2.8 0.3409954 0.06620 0.26424 0.08713
-3.38% 0.001142 3.0 0.3649096 0.03706 0.28241 0.04878
13.74% 0.018888 3.2 0.3888237 0.01994 0.30058 0.02624
11.89% 0.014138 3.4 0.4127378 0.01031 0.31875 0.01356
-2.48% 0.000615 3.6 0.4366519 0.00512 0.33691 0.00674
5.16% 0.002663 3.8 0.4605661 0.00244 0.35508 0.00321
-0.26% 0.000007 4.0 0.4844802 0.00112 0.37325 0.00147
3.86% 0.001489 4.2 0.5083943 0.00049 0.39142 0.00065
5.14% 0.002638 4.4 0.5323085 0.00021 0.40959 0.00027
0.05% 0.000000 4.6 0.5562226 0.00008 0.42776 0.00011
-9.17% 0.008404 4.8 0.5801367 0.00003 0.44593 0.00004
5.0
 5.00

4.50

4.00

3.50

3.00

2.50 TCS
Sensex

2.00

1.50

1.00

0.50

0.00
-0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8