INTER-AMERICAN DEFENSE COLLEGE

DEPARTMENT OF STUDIES
CLASS XLVIII

CANADA

COUNTRY STUDY

TEAM MEMBERS

COR HUMBERTO GUATIBONZA

LT. COR. JOHN KARA
CAP. FRAG. CESAR OLIVARES

23 FEBRUARY 09
 TABLE OF CONTENTS

CONTENTS PAGE

ANTECEDENTS………………………………………………………………..… 3

PART I SWOT ANALYSIS………………………………………...………… 4

A. STRENGTHS…………………………………………………….. 4
B. WEAKNESSES………………………………………………….. 7
C. THREATS……………...………………………………………… 8
D. OPPORTUNITIES………………………………………………. 9

PARTE II CANADIAN INTERESTS AND SCENARIOS...………………….. 12

A. INTERESTS...……………………………………………………. 12
B. SCENARIO………………………………………………………. 13
1. OPTIMISTICS…………………………………………... 14
2. PESSIMISTICS………………………….…………….... 15
3. MEDIAN…………………………………………………. 17

PART III PLANS AND PROGRAMS………………………….……………… 18

A. NATIONAL INTEGRITY………...……………..……………… 18
B. PUBLIC SECURITY…………………………………………….. 19
C. BORDER SECURITY…………………………………………… 19
D. MILITARY MODERNIZATION………………….…………… 19
E. ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY……………………………… 20

CONCLUSION………………………………………………………….………… 20

WORKS CITED………………………………………………………….. 22

ANNEX I MAP……………………………………………………………………. 23

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 CANADA COUNTRY STUDY

Antecedents

The name Canada comes from the Iroquois word for town, establishment or set of

cabins, referring to the site that is now the city of Quebec. The explorer Jacques Cartier

discovered Canada. Initially populated by native Inuit, First Nation, and Métis peoples

(ONLINE--thecommonwealth.org), many French and British citizens emigrated to Canada;

the competition between these two countries was resolved after the Seven Year’s War,

when the Treaty of Paris gave control of Canada to England in 1763 (Marston 2002, 84).

At that time most of the population was French but in the following decades

thousands of British colonists emigrated to Canada from the British Islands and the

American colonies. In 1873 a parliamentary federal government was established under the

British crown. Canada was proclaimed an independent dominion within the British Empire

in December of 1931. The British crown became monarch of Canada. The British

parliament granted direct authority to the Canadian parliament to run day-to-day operations,

although important legal decisions were still made back in the United Kingdom. Canada

finally obtained its constitutional autonomy in 1982.

Canada is a federation under a system of parliamentary monarchy. They are ruled

by Queen Elizabeth II of Great Britain, who is represented by the Governor General, a

symbolic figure with no real authority. Executive authority lies with the prime minister,

who is generally the leader of the political party with the greatest number of benches in the

House of Commons. The prime minister in turn names his cabinet positions from the

House (Enciso 2007, 104).

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 Canada has three political parties in which the majority of power is concentrated;

they include the centrist Liberal Party, the right-leaning Conservative Party, and the left-

leaning New Democratic Party. A fourth player of note, the Bloc Québécois, is a regional

party in Quebec, who supports a separatist position, and generally represents those of

French heritage (ONLINE—CIA World Factbook). The liberal party has governed during

32 of the last 42 years of political life in Canada.

Canada is divided into ten provinces: Alberta, British Columbia, Manitoba, New

Brunswick, Newfoundland and Farmer, Nova Scotia, Ontario, Prince Edward Island, and

Saskatchewan. There are also three territories: the Northwest, the Yukon, and Nunavut.

Canada covers most of the North American continent with a surface area slightly

greater than that of the United States (Annex I Map). Canada shares an 8,893 kilometer

border with the same, extending from the Atlantic Ocean in the east to the Pacific Ocean in

the west. Canada covers 41% of North America and has the second most surface area of

any country on Earth (ONLINE--CIA World Factbook). It has a varied topography and is

rich in natural resources. Canada has huge reserves of oil and large quantities of fresh

water – sixty percent of the world’s lakes are in Canada. The southern part of the country

boasts a robust agricultural sector. (Michel, 2003)

Part I: SWOT ANALYSIS

A -- Strengths

This analysis will begin with an examination of Canada’s internal strengths and

weaknesses. In this era of non-traditional threats to national security, Canada’s geographic

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location is one of its greatest strengths. Canada enjoys the natural protection of the harsh

arctic climate to the north; to the west and east lie equally forbidding landscapes in the form

of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Finally, to the south lies the robust security of the

United States, significantly enhanced since the terrorist attacks of 9/11.

In addition to the natural protection of its borders, Canada enjoys the security

benefits of membership in NATO. Initially formed after World War II to resist

Communism, NATO stands as an unequalled military coalition now that the Soviet Union

has disappeared. Although NATO is less united than it has been in the past, the

disappearance of the imminent threat of nuclear war is a welcome improvement in security

around the globe.

The defining aspect of Canada’s membership in NATO is its close military alliance

with the United States, especially the joint operations with NORAD. In 2004, Canada

added its missile warning capabilities to NORAD (Canada’s International Policy Statement

2005, 22). Canada renewed its working agreement with the US in May 2006, and with that

agreement NORAD added the mission of maritime warning (Canada First Defence Strategy

2008, 8). A strong commitment to cooperation and interoperability with US forces and

NORAD will ensure a future of enhanced security for Canada.

After twelve consecutive years of liberal party control of the Canadian government,

the conservative party won the election in 2006, running on a platform of increased security

and a modernized military. Security enhancements began after the attacks of 9/11, a full

five years before power was handed over to the opposition party; therefore, completion of

security enhancement plans can be expected to succeed regardless of ruling party.

Increased security includes the establishment of two new Maritime Security Operations

Centers in Halifax and Esquimalt, which will enhance monitoring and security of arctic
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waters (Canada’s International Policy Statement 2005, 16). Among many programs,

another of note is the creation of an Integrated Threat Assessment Centre, which will

greatly enhance Canadian intelligence (Ibid.). The Canada First Defense Strategy outlines

a twenty year plan to increase military manning and recapitalize nearly every major war

machine in the Army, Navy and Air Force (Canada First Defense Strategy 2008).

In addition to military measures, a comprehensive security plan was laid out in the

2004 National Security Policy. It includes details of the creation of a new governmental

department overseeing Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness (Canada 2004 NSS, 9),

a new executive Cabinet Committee on Security, Public Health and Emergencies to

coordinate and direct national efforts (Ibid.), and a National Security Advisor to the Prime

Minister (Ibid.). Other focus areas include border security, international security,

protection of infrastructure and cyber-security (Canada 2004 NSS). Canada responded to

the attacks of 9/11 with a comprehensive government overhaul of every aspect of security

for the Canadian citizen, and this may very well be Canada’s greatest strength.

In the economic arena, Canada finds relative strength in the fact that it has minimal

exposure to toxic US mortgage securities; while the global financial crisis ravages the

industrialized economies of the world, Canada so far is largely unscathed. Although the

global slowdown, the US recession, and the strength of the Canadian dollar have all hurt

the economy (EIU Country Report November 2008, p. 4-7), Canada generally enjoys solid

budgets, revenue, and debt management. Canada is extremely strong in natural resources,

especially fresh water, oil, natural gas, and timber (EIU Canada Country Profile 2008, p.

13). Energy scarcity and climate change stand to increase the value of fresh water and oil

going forward. Finally, Canada has a strong national “green” interest, which should help

the country realize green solutions and industries.

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 To summarize, Canada has a strong awareness of its security needs, plans to

enhance the military and other security apparatus’, and is abundant in natural resources.

B -- Weaknesses

One of the strengths listed above reveals a current weakness; the fact that Canada is

expanding military manning and modernizing its equipment belies the fact that the military

is overextended, with an aging force structure. This is largely due to budget decisions by

the governments of the nineties, which focused instead on balancing the budget and

underfunded the military (Canada First Defense Strategy 2008, 11).

While this weakness is being addressed, Canada’s greatest potential weakness is

not: the persistent threat of Quebec secession. The secessionists are represented by the

Bloc Quebecois, and in October of 2008 they won 49 of 308 seats in parliament, a number

that is relatively steady in recent years (EIU Country Report November 2008, 10). The

current conservative government wooed Quebec strongly, “offering new provincial

powers…and pushing a resolution through parliament recognizing Quebec as a ‘nation’

within Canada” (Ibid, 9). These efforts appear to have made little headway, and the Bloc

Quebecois has already agreed to unite with the Liberal and Green parties to try to oust the

ruling Conservatives (Palmer and Ljunggren 2008, 1). The problem remains, and although

low in likelihood, a successful secession would cause a drastic and permanent weakening of

Canada.

Another weakness is Canada’s smaller population – approximately 33 million in

2008 (EIU Canada Country Profile 2008, 2) -- is approximately ten percent of the

population of the US. Although industrialized, Canada is a relatively small state, with a

smaller industrial base, military, budget, and revenue. The result is less fiscal flexibility.
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Major projects and changes have to be carefully planned and executed. This weakness is

magnified when considering national power on the international scene.

Canada is vulnerable to environmental degradation and pollution spillover,

especially from the US. Acid rain has been a hot topic in Canada for decades, and just as

Canada benefits economically due to its proximity to the US, it suffers the pollution.

Although less exposed in real estate, Canada is still affected by financial crisis. The

Canadian stock market hit a low point of 7647 on 20 November 08, down from a high of

15154 on 18 June 2008. The market (Toronto Stock Exchange, TSX) is currently at 7949

(20 Feb 2009). This loss in value is harming the Canadian economy; businesses are at risk,

personal wealth has dropped, unemployment is up, and government revenues are down.

This is creating a political opportunity for the opposition, as earlier described.

Linked to the crisis is the harm to Canadian exports, which are heavily linked to the

US economy; Canada exports approximately eighty percent of its goods to the US (EIU

Canada Country Profile 2008, 26). The US is in a recession, which will hurt Canada’s

exports. Canada’s gross domestic product (GDP) is forecast to fall slightly in 2009 before

rebounding in 2010 (Ibid, 14).

The crisis has caused a sharp fall in commodity prices, which is making it too

expensive to harvest the massive oil reserves in the tar sands of Alberta. This development

has slowed dramatically; it is estimated that oil must fetch 85-95 dollars per barrel before

these tar sands will be profitable (Levine 2008, 60), and oil is currently selling for

approximately 40 dollars per barrel. This is creating a weakness for Canada in the short

term.

C -- Threats
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 Canada clearly laid out its perceived external threats in its April 2004 National

Security Policy. It included such traditional threats as terrorism and proliferation of

weapons of mass destruction (WMD) (Canada 2004 NSS, 6-7). The hazards of failed states

and foreign espionage are also listed (Ibid, 7). Less traditional threats include natural

disasters, organized crime, and pandemics (Ibid, 7-8). Canada also lists critical

infrastructure vulnerability as a threat, including the risk of an electrical blackout and/or

cyber attack (Ibid, 7). Canada was particularly disturbed by the SARS outbreak, and

includes pandemics as a threat (Ibid, 8).

While a close alliance with the United States brings many economic and security

benefits for Canada, it also brings increased risk of being pulled into a major or continued

confrontation with terrorists. Close economic ties could lead to shared devastation if WMD

are successfully employed on US soil or at a US port; in a worst case scenario, the

economic disruption and damage from such an attack could last for decades.

Rising sea levels associated with climate change post a moderate threat to certain

parts of Atlantic Canada, such as Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, and New Brunswick

(Solomon and Christian et al, 369), however the threats there are manageable; most of

Canada’s coasts are largely undeveloped, and the major urban areas are not particularly

vulnerable to rising sea levels (Ibid, 370-377).

D -- Opportunities

In general, the external opportunities that await Canada are more likely to occur

than the risks that might manifest from current threats. One of the brightest aspects of the

coming years is the flexibility available to Canada in its choices of national and

international priorities. Canada will continue to enjoy a largely “free ride” off the massive
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US security overhauls, which will both keep it safer from traditional threats, as well as

provide opportunities for the best in military equipment and technology, without the costs

of research and development. Canada’s desire to establish international prestige and

leadership through participation in multilateral United Nations (UN) missions is clearly

expressed in multiple official security and strategy documents (Canada’s International

Policy Statement 2005, 24-26; Canada First Defence Strategy 2008, 8-9; Canada NSS

2004, 47-52). With the US tending to lose global influence, the years leading to 2020 could

provide a ripe opportunity for Canada to assume a leadership position either in the

hemisphere, within NATO, or worldwide through the UN. Recent experience in

Afghanistan lends credibility and is providing invaluable experience as Canada modernizes

and recapitalizes its military.

Canada’s French heritage creates internal threats and tensions; however, an

opportunity could exist to help bridge the gap between France and the US, perhaps

revitalizing NATO and bringing a renewed unity and identity to “the West”. Regardless,

enhanced military capability and shared benefits of increased US security will give Canada

the freedom to pursue a wide range of interests at home or abroad.

Although its economy is smaller and less robust than some developed nations, the

future is bright for Canada, for its reserves in fresh water and oil stand to provide strong

revenue streams and growth in the future. Although its development is currently delayed

due to reduced oil prices, there are vast oil reserves in the sands of Alberta, to the tune of

175 billion barrels of oil, second only to Saudi Arabia (Levine 2008, 60). Increasing global

population and energy consumption mean a prosperous future for Canada.

As previously stated, a unique benefit of Canada’s near future is flexibility; Canada

has not tended to seek global influence and leadership. If Canada were to wish a return to
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isolationism, it could, allowing the US to shoulder the brunt of the attention of terrorists

and global troublemakers.

The SWOT analysis of Canada is summarized in Figure 1 below.

.STRENGTHS: WEAKNESSES:
- formidable natural boundaries/barriers - older military equipment
- strong alliances - lingering threat of Quebec secession
- planned security enhancements - small population & budget
- minimal exposure to financial crisis - vulnerable to US pollution spillovers
SUPPLEMENTARY - world-wide financial crisis
- stable parliamentary democracy SUPPLEMENTARY
- large land mass - difficult control of territory
- sound financial system - need for immigrants
- low corruption - aging population
- strong GDP - little leadership in the world-wide scene
- life expectancy 80 years
- 99% literacy rate
- rich in natural resources
- robust communication infrastructure
- no internal or external armed conflicts
- low crime rate
THREATS: OPPORTUNITIES:
- terrorism - free ride off US security enhancements
- WMD - increasing global leadership
- failed & failing states - bridge transatlantic gap; energize NATO
- natural disasters - strong economic future (oil, fresh water)
- transnational organized crime - flexibility in national approach
- pandemics
- critical infrastructure vulnerabilities
- linked to US in eyes of terrorists
- linked to economic fallout of WMD
attack on the US
- climate change in some regions

Figure 1: Canada SWOT analysis

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Part II CANADIAN INTERESTS AND SCENARIOS

A: Canadian National Interests

Guesswork is not needed to determine Canadian national interests – they are very

clearly laid out in the 2004 National Security Strategy. They include:

• Protecting Canada and the safety and security of Canadians at home and abroad

(Canada NSS 2004, p 5). This includes defending territorial and maritime sovereignty,

particularly to the north, where global warming has melted ice, creating passages

through the arctic. Canadian security abroad will be enhanced by a strong security

presence with Canada’s diplomats, aid workers and other representatives (Ibid.).

• Ensuring that Canada is not a base for threats to its allies (Ibid.). The success of the

9/11 attacks on the US were firmly imprinted upon Canada; in helping secure North

America, Canada recognizes the benefits for its own security (Ibid.).

• Contributing to international security (Ibid.). Part of Canada’s military modernization

effort is intended to enhance its ability to contribute to international missions designed

to keep or make the peace in failing or failed states, thus removing potential safe havens

for terrorists and increasing security at home (Ibid.).

The serious scholar cannot rely solely on Canada’s published opinion of its own

national interests; analysis of Canadian policy and action reveals a strong interest in

maintaining its national integrity and preventing the secession of Quebec. It can also be

concluded that Canada is interested in maintaining the way of life of its citizens. Canadians

enjoy a relatively secure, comfortable standard of living, if not always ambitious.

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B: Scenarios

Current global concerns are dominated by two factors: the current financial crisis

and terrorism. Climate change follows these two as a global area of concern, but is

overshadowed due to its less immediate nature. Future scenarios really drive from these

basic factors. Studies of globalization are insistent upon the changing nature of security,

tending to move away from traditional issues of defense and sovereignty, and into non-

traditional threats such as transnational organized crime, migration, income inequality,

exclusion, and climate change. Some of these threats are more pressing than others for

certain countries or certain regions, but in general, for the developed world, they are all

secondary factors behind the immediate threats posed by the financial crisis (and

accompanying global recession) and by terrorism. For each scenario, a general global

scenario will be described followed by an application of the scenario to Canada.

Any optimistic scenario would call for a quicker resolution to the global financial

crisis. It is safe to lay the blame for the source of this crisis at the feet of the US housing

market and Wall Street. While some foreign banks may have been affected by purchasing

US mortgage securities, in general global finance manifests the effects of the crisis in

reduced confidence and general apprehension, restricted access to credit, and battered stock

markets. A quicker resolution to this crisis would be indicated by a return to normalcy in

the credit markets and a significant bounce in stock markets, somewhere near their highs

before they plunged, and an ability to sustain such higher levels with reduced volatility. In

five years, the crisis would be a thing of the past, and global cooperation would have

introduced some new safeguards to international finance without abandoning free market

principles. In ten years, countries would have resumed strong growth, with reasonable

inflation and unemployment levels, and continued reduction in trade barriers.

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 On the terrorism side, any optimistic scenario would first continue to see an absence

of WMD employment. Terrorist groups have been on the decline in general, and this trend

would continue. It is not reasonable to expect the phenomenon to disappear completely,

and the recent attacks in Mumbai illustrate that the entire world is a soft target. However,

sympathies for terrorists in Islamic countries would decline and terrorists would lose their

popular support and fundamental base to draw upon.

Finally, optimistic scenarios would include global consensus on strategies to combat

climate change and global warming, specifically in the area of carbon emission reductions.

The most prominent current treaty on the subject, the Kyoto Protocol, does not include the

US, China or India, which represent three of the greatest CO2 emitters in the world. An

optimist scenario would welcome the creation of a global treaty universally adopted by all

members of the UN, with technological breakthroughs in carbon emission reductions

allowing for nations to greatly reduce their emissions without harming the national

economy to pay for it.

1) Optimistic

Canada benefits under the optimistic scenario as described primarily in its domestic

economy. A quick resolution to the global financial crisis allows the government to focus

on reducing the national debt, modernizing the military, and enhancing public security and

the ability to respond to threats. The US economy recovers quickly, and Canadian exports

return to previous levels quickly. GDP growth continues, and people are generally happy

and prosperous.

Terrorism continues to abate, and there are no high-profile attacks or systemic

success by any group. All foreign troops are removed from Iraq, the UN takes over in a
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strictly technical supportive role, and this further reduces tensions in the area. This removal

allows NATO to focus on Afghanistan again, and the Taliban is quickly and permanently

crushed. Troop reductions begin, and a total withdrawal is on the horizon, again further

reducing tensions in the area. Muslims feel less distrustful and encroached upon by the

West, further eroding the support base for terrorist groups.

Although they choose to not take a leadership role in the world or the region in

matters of finance or security, Canada does advocate environmental protection. Canada

takes the lead and, leveraging upon her close relationship with the US, convinces the US to

sign on to a global CO2 reduction treaty, which results in China, India and all other nations

following suit. Canada becomes the global leader in climate issues, and CO2 emission

levels stabilize.

Finally, the government enjoys strong popular support after successfully navigating

the financial crisis. This support is translated into a renewed sense of Canadian

nationalism. The Bloc Quebecois formally dismisses any future aspiration for secession.

2) Pessimistic

Pessimistic scenarios would see the financial crisis coupling with a global recession

and unfortunate timing in market cycles, resulting in devastating failures. Governments are

forced to nationalize a majority of the financial sector, as well as key economic production

areas. Reduced credit and general uncertainty reduce spending, which results in lowered

consumption. Lowered consumption drives companies to tighten their belts and downsize,

resulting in greater unemployment, and weaker companies fail. Greater unemployment

further reduces consumption, which further reduces production. Financial deleveraging

continues to evolve, and losses are staggering. Countries begin to resort to protectionist
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policies, and free trade crumbles, with tariffs appearing. This creates scarcity and raises

prices, further reducing the buying power of consumers and driving many into poverty.

The second great depression begins, and like the first one, causes a reverse in globalization

trends.

A massive economic downturn stirs unrest and tensions flare in the Middle East.

The US is unsuccessful in its bid to withdraw from Iraq, and this causes massive outrage

and protest. Spread too thin, NATO forces are unable to contain the Taliban, who continue

to gain strength in Afghanistan. Finally, Pakistan experiences a violent, radical revolution

not unlike that seen in Iran in the late 70s. The fact that Pakistan holds nuclear technology

results in a worst case scenario – enough equipment is transferred to Indonesia’s Al Qaida

cells and modified to allow them to detonate a dirty bomb in the waters outside Los

Angeles. The result is complete economic disruption, as population must be relocated from

coastal areas and all trade must be rerouted. The divide between Islam and the West grows.

Needless to say, in the pessimistic scenario climate change falls off the radar.

Although carbon emissions fall due to shrinking economic activity, the UN and NATO

become completely ineffective, with little hope for cooperation in the near future.

Under this scenario, Canada’s economy is crippled, and all plans to modernize the

military and enhance public security are abandoned. Unemployment rises significantly,

and tax revenue plummets, forcing a painful prioritization of spending on only the most

essential measures. The national debt balloons despite reductions in spending, crippling

Canada’s financial flexibility in the future. Canada withdraws from the global arena and

downsizes its military, abandoning earlier plans to build international prestige. Its smaller

population and economy become a strength, and Canada is able to modify its national

economy to become largely self sufficient.

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 Tough times ignite old passions, and the Bloc Quebecois gains considerable

strength and support. With the votes in hand to actually secede, the Bloc Quebecois

becomes a political tyrant, frequently threatening secession in order to bully its way

politically. Although secession does not happen in 2020, the issue is resurrected and

reignited, forcing Canada to turn sharply inward, at great international expense.

3) Median

The median scenario finds a reality somewhere in between a quick resolution to the

financial crisis and a second great depression. Many current economic forecasts call for a

moderate-to-severe recession in the US, a somewhat less severe recession globally, and a

recovery beginning in late 2009 or early 2010. Nations have generally cooperated so far to

try to avoid the mistakes made during the Great Depression, and fiscal stimulus policies are

saving companies while avoiding government control and the abandonment of capitalism.

Although terrorism attacks still occur, such as those in Mumbai, the growth and

development of a global terror network has not happened; although controversial, the

persistent attacks of the United States and the “coalition of the willing” have degraded the

ability of terrorist organizations to organize and strike. Although still a very real threat,

they are forced to ground in order to survive. Likewise, global public sympathies fall

away, and Muslim nations are called to account for terrorist acts by Muslims, further

eroding the support base for terrorist organizations. Terrorists continue to conduct sporadic

attacks worldwide, some particularly damaging, but there is no employment of WMD, and

the tide of radical Islamic terrorism continues to wane.

Finally, environmental awareness continues to grow, and “green” businesses grow

and prosper. The effect is a healthier planet, but whether the changes are enough to stem
23
the potential damage from ongoing emissions remains to be seen. Major global climatic

changes are not expected by 2020.

Under this scenario, Canada’s economy slowly recovers starting in the middle of

2009, and market values and employment levels begin to heal. These improvements reduce

the pressure on politicians in general, and the discontent of minority populations and

Quebec secessionists is kept at a minimum. Political struggle between liberals and

conservatives continue, but there is generally no detriment to Canada regardless of who

holds power.

Canada suffers no attacks on its homeland, and is likewise successful in preventing

attacks from originating from its own territory. At some point Canada’s ambitious twenty

year military modernization plan is scaled back, but all public security initiatives are fully

carried out. Canada continues to play a role in international peacekeeping operations, but

does not become a major voice or influence in the global arena.

Part III: Plans and Programs

Given the median, or most likely scenario, bracketed by the best and worst case

scenarios, the authors recommend the following plans and programs for Canada.

A -- National Integrity

Although the likelihood of Quebec seceding is low, the consequences would be

devastating. Canada would be well served by finding a way to put this matter to rest

permanently. Finding a way to mollify the French population of Quebec without enraging

citizens throughout the rest of Canada is certainly no easy task. However, there are no

other scenarios with any reasonable likelihood of success that would cause Canada more

23
harm. Once the current financial crisis is past, permanent reconciliation should be sought

and obtained.

B -- Public Security

Canada’s public security enhancement programs, as detailed in its defense and

national security strategy documents, should be strengthened as planned. The ambitious

plans to create additional maritime security operations centers, enhance emergency

response, improve intelligence, and increase government coordination are adequate to meet

the domestic security needs of Canadians. Immigration policies will need to be examined

to maintain manageable population levels and keep unemployment numbers in check.

C -- Border Security

Border security issues with the US must be emphasized and transportation must

remain open to ensure the health of the Canadian economy. However, security must be

maintained despite the heavy flows of traffic and commerce in both directions.

Improvements in technology, government programs, and inter-governmental cooperation

between Canada and the US will facilitate efficient border operations while maintaining

security.

D -- Military Modernization

Continued close cooperation with the US through NORAD is a must, but Canada’s

manning increases and heavy equipment purchases should be scaled back. This will ensure

available funding to complete higher priority programs – the harm caused by the financial

crisis and global recession will require adjustments. Although a luxurious capability,
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Canada does not absolutely require a C-17 fleet of its own, and this purchase should be

cancelled. New naval platforms are a must due to the opening of the Northwest Passage.

Increased military manning is just not feasible based on the global economic hiccup and the

small relative size of the Canadian economy. Canada should reduce its planned military

manning increases by half, from ten percent to only five. This compromise will save

money while also increasing deployment capabilities and reducing operations tempo for

key career fields. Although this will mean accepting a smaller than desired international

presence and reduced role in international peacekeeping operations; this is more in line

with the priorities of the Canadian people. Current participation levels are enough to create

a certain amount of international credibility, and there is little value added in significantly

increasing participation. Canada just does not have the capability or the will to assume a

position of global leadership or influence.

E -- Environmental Security

If current plans to scrap Kyoto protocol emission reductions stand, Canada will lose

significant standing in the one global arena where it does enjoy increased influence and

prestige, and that is in environmental matters. If Canada is going to be unable to meet the

requirements, it is extremely likely that most other nations will be unable to meet them as

well; Canada should focus its efforts on creating an achievable path forward for all nations

to reduce carbon emissions and combat the negative effects thereof.

CONCLUSIONS

Canada is unique among industrialized countries of the West; it is relatively isolated

by geography, it is generally safe from many of the non-traditional threats of today’s age,
23
and it is generally happy to quietly operate out of the spotlight. Looking forward, Canada

has a very favorable position, with large reserves of oil and fresh water, and is strong in

natural resources. Protecting its citizenry and their way of life will be easier for Canada to

achieve than it will be for most other nations. Canada’s future is generally bright,

regardless of the whims of any ruling party. The greatest threat is the secession of Quebec,

and this threat has receded to the background in recent years. If this problem can be

permanently resolved, there is very little in the foreseeable future that can do much harm to

Canada. Although it is not a power player on the world stage, Canada has no desire for

such a role. Canada will bounce back sooner and stronger than most from the current

financial crisis and the future of Canada in 2020 is very bright indeed.

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Works Cited

Canada 2008 Country Profile. Economist Intelligence Unit, London. www.ieu.com

Canada November 2008 Country Report. Economist Intelligence Unit, London.

www.ieu.com

Canada’s International Policy Statement, A Role of Pride and Influence in the World:
DEFENCE. 2005, Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada. www.international.gc.ca

Canada First Defence Strategy. 12 May 2008.

http://www.forces.gc.ca/site/focus/first/defstra_e.asp

CIA World Factbook. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-

factbook/geos/ca.html#Geo

Encinso, C. J. (2007). Almanaque Mundial 2008. In Televisa, Alamanaque Mundial 2008

(pp. 102-104). Mexico DF: Editorial Televisa.

Ivory, Michael (2003), National Geographic Canada. Traducción Jordi Solà, RBA
Publicaciones S.A., Barcelona.

Levine, Steven. “Pullback in the oil patch,” Business Week, Dec 8 2008: 60.

Marston, Daniel (2002). The French-Indian War 1754-176. Osprey Publishing, 2002.

Palmer, Randall and David Ljunggren. “UPDATE 2-Canada opposition agrees to coalition
outline”, 1 Dec 2008, Reuters, online.

Securing an Open Society: Canada’s National Security Policy. Apr 2004, Privy Council
Office. www.pco-bcp.gc.ca

Solomon, Steven, Harold A Christian, Donald L Forbes, John Shaw, and Robert B Taylor.
“Potential impacts of global sea-level rise on Canadian Coasts,” Canadian Geographer,
Winter 1998, 42, 4: 365-379.

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ANNEX I

MAPS

CANADA

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