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A Week in the War: Afghanistan, March 16-29, 2011

March 28, 2011 | 1949 GMT

Security Transition

Afghan President Hamid Karzai announced March 22 the first seven areas of the country where
responsibility for security would be handed over completely to Afghans: the provinces of Panjshir,
Bamian and Kabul (except the restive Surobi district, though the rest of Kabul¶s security effectively has
been in Afghan hands for years) and the cities of Mazar-e-Sharif, Herat, LashkarGah and Mehtar Lam.

Consistent with the American exit strategy of ³Vietnamization´ of the conflict, the real trick will not be
the first areas handed over. The first are the easiest to hand over, like the already relatively calm and
safe areas of Kabul. The main issue will be discovering whether Afghan forces are sufficient to hold the
line against the Taliban in more contested areas. And in this sense, Mehtar Lam (not far from the
Pakistani border in the east) and particularly LashkarGah (the capital of Helmand province in the
country¶s restive southwest) will be the most important to watch.

Cell Phone Towers and Taliban Intimidation

In LashkarGah, there have already been signs of a successful intimidation campaign by the Taliban
ahead of the anticipated spring offensive. Cellular service providers in the capital have shut down
service in compliance with Taliban demands, and that shutdown appears to be entering its second week.
A shutdown of cellular towers at night has long been a common demand by the Taliban to prevent
locals from informing on the Taliban¶s nocturnal movements and activities, whether those beemplacing
improvised explosive devices or other intimidation efforts. Despite assurances from Afghan security
forces that cellular service providers, their families and their infrastructure, in particular the cell towers,
would be protected, the providers have remained united in their observance of the Taliban demands.
LashkarGah has been a focal point of the U.S. Marine-led campaign in Helmand to push out the Taliban
and deny them the support of the population. In many ways, this has been considered a success.
However, one of the most pervasive problems of providing security for the population is the insurgents¶
inherent ability to move among the population and threaten retribution if their demands are not met.

The Taliban¶s successful intimidation campaign in an area where Afghan government officials and
security forces¶ operations are concentrated is an ominous indication for International Security
Assistance Force (ISAF) efforts as the fighting season heats up. It not only speaks to the Taliban¶s
ability to provoke fear and to the population¶s susceptibility to intimidation but also serves as a potential
indicator of the local population¶s confidence in the Afghan security forces¶ ability to provide for that
security.

Community Police

Here is where community police can be particularly effective. Armed locals deny the insurgency some
of the advantages that a guerilla movement enjoys against a foreign occupier. There have been many
attempts at establishing coherent community police programs. Kabul has opposed them several times as
they were often created outside the aegis of the Afghan government in arrangements made directly
between ISAF forces and locals.

The attempt now under way in Logar province reportedly started on the governor¶s initiative, which
intended integration with the Afghan government in Kabul. It trains individuals nominated by the local
elders who would be responsible for them (if, for example, they are caught fleecing the local
population) and keeping them in their local communities ² maximizing the utility of their unique
knowledge of the local landscape. This is not unlike the Interim Security Critical Infrastructure (ISCI)
program in Marjah, though ISCI was more directly facilitated by the ISAF).

Border Security

Meanwhile, Helmand¶s border with Pakistan remains a concern. Raids and screening efforts by the 3rd
Light Armored Reconnaissance battalion last year are resuming, aiming to provide a more sustained
presence to deter the flow of fighters, weapons and material to and from Pakistan in a more coherent
way. As LashkarGah and other portions of Helmand are turned over to Afghan security forces, Marines
freed up from those efforts could be shifted south to reinforce efforts to lock down the border.

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