Professional Documents
Culture Documents
ABSTRACT
The purpose of this study is to determine" rain project" used for the sizing networks of storm drainage.
Thus, our approach is based on the analysis and study of rainfall data in terms of normality and stationarity.
We first checked distribution normality of precipitation series using Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and a
graphical way. Then the frequency analysis of maximum daily rainfall is made while the quantiles of scarce
spectrum are determined. Finally, the study of stationary series and the development of rain project are
developed. Based on a series of long observation period, we have highlighted the non stationarity of the
series. Several breaks in studied series are detected. According to Hubert and al.(1989), this segmentation
procedure can be considered as a test on the stationarity of the series . Such a method is appropriate for
changes research of the mean. We found out that general trend of series is downward. However, the daily
rainfall maxima picks are observed in recent decades, reflecting a change in climate. Maxima daily rainfalls
are due to intense storms and short durations. In Tunis, we recorded 193 mm of rain in 90 minutes in 2003.
This rain has a return period of 500 years. These exceptional rains are then processed in order to define the
rain project. A "rain project" is a rain fictitious defined by a synthetic hyetograph and statistically
representative of real rain. Results of this study are interesting: they help to diagnostic the behavior of the
network of storm drainage (size and emptying time) and reduce the impact of these events during flooding
periods.
1 INTRODUCTION
Frequency Analysis is a statistical method of prediction. It consists of studying past events,
process characteristics (rain, flow) to define the probabilities of future occurrence. This prediction
is based on fitting the act of probability to the empirical frequencies of past observation. On
18/09/2003 Tunis has witnessed an extreme exceptional event.. Heavy rain fell over the whole
catchment area of Tunis main ly the municipalities of Ariana and Mannouba and caused flooding.
These exceptional rains are of great intensity. It is a rain of 193 mm in one day, which had
caused a lot of damage. The rain of 28/09/2003, even with a lower intensity, led to new
flooding with regard to the fact that soil saturation. Frequency analysis of rain helps to predict
the characteristics in terms of quantiles, return period, and response time of the watershed. The
analysis is used to quantify the extent of flooding and to take decisions necessary for stormwater
drainage (size of network storm, emptying time) to mitigate the impact of these events generally
on the urban map. To develop this study, we used the rainfall observations at Mannouba Saida
station.
The Skewness coefficient is equal to 1.69 which is a positive asymmetry. The coefficient of
variation is equal to 0.55. We can say that the distribution is spread right. Also the kurtosis
coefficient (( γ = 2.87> 0) is strong. If the kurtosis is clearly different zero, than them the
distribution is either flatter or more peaked than normal.
Figure 1 of Histogram of maximum daily rainfall shows a significant variability in rainfall with
very two high peaks.
Frequency analysis. The adjustment to empirical frequencies of the observed rainfall shows
two laws can adequately describe the variation of the observations. Which are the Gumbel
distribution and Log Normal. In fact, the graphs 2 mentioned below, at an interval confidence of
99%, show that the laws adopted comfortably fit on the scatter plot. The log-normal parameters µ
and σ admits the probability density function.
for x> 0. µ and σ are the mean and standard deviation of the logarithm of the variable.
The Gumbel distribution is widely used in hydrology to estimate the extreme values of studied
phenomena. We say that X follows the Gumbel distribution with parameters a and b if its
distribution function is:
In addition to this descriptive analysis of the package, we determined the quantiles of different
return periods, table 2.
The maximum value represents an exceptional rainfall with the return period of 440 years.
4 SEGMENTATION OF HUBERT
The maximum daily rainfall series presents breaks of different medium, Table No.3. It turns out
that the average of the first sequence (1872-1899) is greater than the second (1900-2020). The
procedure produced an acceptable segmentation order greater than 2. According to Hubert et al.
(1989), this segmentation procedure can be interpreted as a test of stationarity. In our case the null
hypothesis is rejected and therefore the series is not stationniare.
Tableau n°3 Segmentation d'Hubert.
I(t)
IM
HM
τ tp
0 DP
DM
6 CONCLUSIONS
This study has provided a better understanding of the genesis of floods and flooding. Estimating
quantiles with rare and exceptional frequencies based on the behavior of the frequency
distributions to extremes which will analyze the risks associated with hydrological extreme
events. Regarding the floods themselves, their main causes are the high rainfall intensities for
short durations. Design storm is an indispensable tool for the sizing network of drainage of storm
water and hydrological models to forecast extremes.
7 REFERENCES
Desbordes M. Raous P. 1980. Fondements de l’élaboration d’une pluie de projet Urbaine,la Métrologie , -(20-21),
pp.317-326.LHM. USTL. Montpellier France.
Bergaoui Med. 1984. Evaluation de l'influence des apports des zones perméables sur les débits et volumes ruisselés
des bassins versants urbanisés. DEA , LHM USTL. Montpellier. France 1984.
Hemain J.C 1983. Guide de Construction et d'utilisation des pluies de projet. Rapport LHM. USTL. Octoblre 1983.
Montpellier. France.
HUBERT P., CARBONNEL J. P., CHAOUCHE A., 1989. Segmentation des séries hydrométéorologiques.
Application à des séries de précipitations et de débits de l'Afrique de l'Ouest. Journal of Hydrology, vol. 110, pp
349-367.
SAIDI A. 2008. Etude de la pluie de Projet: Détermination et XCaractérisation cas du bassin Versant
ettadhamen.2008. Mastère. ESIER