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Below represent our 1Q11 EBITDA estimate revisions and our new projections versus current consensus total adjusted EBITDA.
On the following page, we provide an illustrative exercise utilizing the above factors which led to a more detailed review of the
particulars in our individual forecasted Macau properties for the companies referenced.
We believe our 26% Macau market growth estimate is conservative relative to increasing spend per visitor trends in recent quarters
matched with smaller, yet still noticeable visitation increases - especially from Mainland China - which has outpaced overall Macau
visitation from November CY10 through the most recently published statistics for February CY11.
We view market share shifts post its opening as being less negatively impactful to Cotai properties relative to Peninsula ones due to
our belief that Cotai as a percentage of Island visitation will increase to ~35% post Galaxy’s Cotai opening from ~25% currently.
According to Macau operator and junket contacts, Macau patrons visit 2 to 3 casinos per Island trip, on average. We assume most
patrons visiting Galaxy Macau will choose to visit neighboring casinos more often than Peninsula ones.
Important Disclosures regarding Price Target Risks, Valuation Methodology, Regulation Analyst Certification, Investment
Banking, Ratings Definitions, and potential conflicts of interest begin on Page I of the Appendix Section.
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LEISURE & ENTERTAINMENT April 5, 2011
For LVS and MPEL, current Cotai operations account for approximately 75% and 70% of Macau property EBITDA, respectively.
MGM (Neutral, $13.26) and WYNN do not currently have casino operations on Cotai. However, we view WYNN’s Peninsula
property as possessing a more loyal VIP clientele and its overall mass operations and offering as being more unique than MGM’s. As
such, we believe WYNN will be better apt to defend against market share losses than MGM post Galaxy’s Cotai opening.
*Please see description information of Galaxy Macau opening on page 3 of this report.
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LEISURE & ENTERTAINMENT April 5, 2011
MPEL (millions, except per share data) DEC Mar 11 Jun 11 Sep 11 Dec 11 DEC Mar 12 Jun 12 Sep 12 Dec 12 DEC
FY10 Q1:11E Q2:11E Q3:11E Q4:11E FY11E Q1:12E Q2:12E Q3:12E Q4:12E FY12E
Property Net Revenue
City of Dreams 1,638.3 501.8 477.0 467.6 501.0 1,947.4 506.8 508.7 498.6 521.0 2,035.0
Altira Macau (Formerly Crown Macau) 859.7 250.1 233.5 233.6 248.7 965.9 250.3 247.3 245.1 256.0 998.8
Mocha Clubs 112.0 30.4 30.2 30.8 31.1 122.5 30.8 31.1 31.7 32.1 125.7
Peninsula Project 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other Revenue 32.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 24.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 24.0
TOTAL NET REVENUES 2,642.0 788.3 746.7 738.0 786.8 3,059.8 793.9 793.1 781.4 815.1 3,183.5
% Seq. 98% 2% -5% -1% 7% 16% 1% 0% -1% 4% 4%
% YoY 98% 39% 30% 2% 2% 16% 1% 6% 6% 4% 4%
Property EBITDA
City of dreams 326.3 101.7 97.1 97.8 104.8 401.4 106.5 106.9 104.8 109.6 427.7
Altira Macau (Crown Macau) 133.7 46.0 42.7 42.7 45.5 176.9 45.7 45.2 44.8 46.8 182.4
Mocha Clubs 29.8 8.4 8.2 8.6 8.7 33.9 8.3 8.4 8.9 9.0 34.6
Peninsula project 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total Property EBITDA 489.8 156.0 147.9 149.2 159.0 612.2 160.5 160.4 158.4 165.3 644.6
% YoY 531% 57% -71% 1% 4% 25% 3% -8% -6% 4% 5%
Corporate expense 59.5 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5 70.0 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.5 70.0
% of net revs. 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Total adjusted EBITDA 430.4 138.5 130.4 131.7 141.5 542.2 143.0 142.9 140.9 147.8 574.6
% YoY 1043% 59% -78% 3% -6% 26% 3% -10% -7% -4% 6%
Depreciation and amortization 313.1 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 340.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 340.0
Stock-based compensation 6.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 8.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 8.0
EBIT 92.5 51.5 43.4 44.7 54.5 194.2 56.0 55.9 53.9 60.8 226.6
% margin 4% 7% 6% 6% 7% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7%
Interest and other income (expense) (100.8) (28.0) (28.0) (27.7) (27.7) (111.6) (27.5) (27.5) (27.5) (27.5) (110.0)
INCOME BEFORE TAXES (9.6) 23.5 15.4 16.9 26.8 82.6 28.5 28.4 26.4 33.3 116.6
Income taxes 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Adjusted Net Income 8.2 23.5 15.4 16.9 26.8 82.6 28.5 28.4 26.4 33.3 116.6
Adjusted EPS 0.02 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.15 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.22
Diluted Shares Outstanding 535.0 535.3 535.3 535.3 535.3 535.3 535.3 535.3 535.3 535.3 535.3
Source: Company reports and Sterne, Agee & Leach, Inc. estimates.
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LEISURE & ENTERTAINMENT April 5, 2011
LVS (millions, except per share data) DEC Mar 11 Jun 11 Se p 11 Dec 11 DEC Mar 12 Jun 12 Sep 12 Jun 12 DEC
FY10 Q1:11E Q2:11E Q3:11E Q4:11E FY11E Q1:12E Q2:12E Q3:12E Q4:12E FY12E
NET REVENUES
Total Macau 4,105.1 1,095.0 1,070.4 1,067.5 1,098.7 4,331.6 1,216.8 1,361.0 1,525.6 1,630.0 5,733.3
Las Vegas Operations 1,203.0 329.3 308.4 303.8 290.0 1,231.5 338.8 327.4 316.7 296.7 1,277.6
Sands BethWorks 302.0 90.8 93.7 92.8 85.0 362.3 91.7 94.5 93.5 85.6 365.4
Maina Bay - Singapore 1,262.7 606.6 629.9 646.8 645.1 2,528.4 639.5 670.8 686.2 677.9 2,674.4
Other - Asia (19.7) 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 25.6 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 25.6
TOTAL NET REVENUES 6,853.1 2,128.1 2,108.8 2,117.3 2,125.1 8,479.4 2,293.2 2,460.1 2,628.5 2,696.6 10,078.4
% sequential 50% 6% -1% 0% 0% 24% 8% 7% 7% 3% 19%
% yoy 50% 59% 32% 11% 5% 24% 8% 17% 24% 27% 19%
ADJUSTED PROPERTY EBITDAR
Total Macau 1,242.0 339.9 319.8 320.4 341.9 1,322.0 366.0 397.4 460.9 503.6 1,731.1
Las Vegas Operations 310.1 93.9 87.9 85.1 76.9 343.7 101.7 95.0 91.9 83.1 357.7
Sands BethWorks 59.0 18.2 18.7 18.6 17.0 72.5 18.3 18.9 18.7 17.1 73.1
Marina Bay - Singapore 641.9 327.6 340.1 349.3 348.4 1,365.3 348.5 365.6 374.0 369.5 1,457.5
Other Asia (24.4) (6.2) (6.2) (6.2) (6.2) (24.8) (6.2) (6.2) (6.2) (6.2) (24.8)
TOTAL PROPERTY EBITDAR 2,228.6 773.3 760.4 767.1 777.9 3,078.7 828.3 870.6 939.3 967.0 3,605.3
% yoy 105% 108% 61% 19% 5% 38% 7% 14% 22% 24% 17%
Rental expense 41.3 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 44.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 44.0
% of Revs. 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
Corporate expe nse 108.8 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 112.0 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 114.0
% of Revs. 1.6% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1%
ADJUSTED EBITDA (prior to stock option ex) 2,078.4 734.3 721.4 728.1 738.9 2,922.7 788.8 831.1 899.8 927.5 3,447.3
% yoy 125% 117% 66% 20% 6% 41% 7% 15% 24% 26% 18%
Depreciation and amortization 695.0 186.0 186.5 186.5 187.0 746.0 186.9 188.0 188.0 189.0 751.9
% of Revs. 10.3% 8.7% 8.8% 8.8% 8.8% 8.8% 8.2% 7.6% 7.2% 7.0% 7.5%
Pre-opening expense 115.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
% of Revs. 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Deve lopment expense 0.8 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 8.5 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.7 10.1
% of Revs. 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Impairment and loss on disposal of assets 54.6 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 4.2 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 5.0
% of Revs. 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Stock based compensation 31.6 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 26.0 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 27.0
% of Revs. 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4%
EBIT 1,180.6 538.6 525.2 531.9 542.2 2,138.0 592.0 632.9 701.3 728.0 2,654.2
% margin 17% 25% 25% 25% 26% 25% 26% 26% 27% 27% 26%
Interest and other income (expense) (324.7) (80.0) (80.0) (80.0) (80.0) (320.0) (80.0) (80.0) (80.0) (80.0) (320.0)
INCOME BIEFORE TAXES 855.9 458.6 445.2 451.9 462.2 1,818.0 512.0 552.9 621.3 648.0 2,334.2
Benefit (provision) for income taxes (74.3) (68.8) (66.8) (67.8) (69.3) (272.7) (76.8) (82.9) (93.2) (97.2) (350.1)
tax margin 9% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15%
Noncontrolling interest 182.2 51.0 45.0 45.6 50.6 192.2 58.6 49.0 49.3 49.6 206.5
NET INCOME 599.4 338.8 333.4 338.5 342.3 1,353.0 376.6 421.0 478.8 501.2 1,777.6
Undeclared Dividends Accumulated and Other (191.9) (45.0) (45.0) (45.0) (45.0) (180.0) (45.0) (45.0) (45.0) (45.0) (180.0)
NET INCOME (Adjusted) 775.0 338.8 333.4 338.5 342.3 1,353.0 376.6 421.0 478.8 501.2 1,777.6
Adjusted EPS 0.98 0.42 0.41 0.42 0.42 1.68 0.47 0.52 0.59 0.62 2.20
Diluted Shares Outstanding 791.8 807.0 808.0 808.0 808.0 807.8 808.0 808.0 808.0 808.0 807.8
Source: Company reports and Sterne, Agee & Leach, Inc. estimates.
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LEISURE & ENTERTAINMENT April 5, 2011
WYNN (millions, except per share data) DEC Mar 11 Jun 11 Sep 11 Dec 11 DEC Mar 12 Jun 12 Sep 12 Dec 12 DEC
FY10 Q1:11E Q2:11E Q3:11E Q4:11E FY11E Q1:12E Q2:12E Q3:12E Q4:12E FY12E
Property Net Revenue
Total Las Vegas 1,296.1 328.0 326.1 345.9 346.3 1,346.2 346.9 345.6 366.3 366.4 1,425.2
% of total net revenue 31% 27% 27% 30% 29% 28% 27% 28% 29% 29% 28%
Wynn Macau 2,888.5 883.1 879.0 823.3 849.8 3,435.2 921.9 909.4 896.5 884.8 3,612.6
% of total net revenue 69% 73% 73% 70% 71% 72% 73% 72% 71% 71% 72%
TOTAL NET REVENUES 4,184.6 1,211.1 1,205.0 1,169.2 1,196.0 4,781.4 1,268.8 1,255.1 1,262.8 1,251.2 5,037.8
% yoy. 37% 33% 17% 16% -3% 14% 5% 4% 8% 5% 5%
Property EBITDA
TOTAL LAS VEGAS EBITDA 270.3 68.9 71.7 83.0 79.6 303.3 76.3 79.5 87.9 84.3 328.0
% margin 21% 21% 22% 24% 23% 23% 22% 23% 24% 23% 23%
Wynn Macau 892.7 274.8 281.3 263.5 271.9 1,090.4 295.0 291.0 291.4 287.6 1,164.9
% margin 31% 31% 32% 32% 32% 32% 32% 32% 33% 33% 32%
Total Property EBITDA 1,163.0 343.7 353.0 346.5 351.6 1,393.7 371.3 370.5 379.3 371.8 1,492.9
% yoy. 56% 42% 25% 26% -4% 20% 8% 5% 9% 6% 7%
Corporate Expense 69.5 19.3 19.5 19.7 19.7 78.2 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 80.0
% yoy. 51% 76% 29% 5% -20% 13% 4% 3% 2% 2% 2%
EBITDA (pre-stock option expense) 1,093.5 324.4 333.5 326.8 331.9 1,316.5 351.3 350.5 359.3 351.8 1,412.9
Depreciation and amortization 405.6 103.0 104.0 104.0 104.0 415.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 420.0
% of Net Revs. 10% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8%
Stock-based compensation 27.2 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 27.6 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 27.6
EBIT 625.3 214.5 222.6 215.9 221.0 873.9 239.4 238.6 247.4 239.9 965.3
% margin 15% 18% 18% 18% 18% 18% 19% 19% 20% 19% 19%
Interest and other income (expense) (288.3) (60.9) (60.9) (60.9) (60.9) (243.4) (60.9) (60.9) (60.9) (60.9) (243.4)
INCOME BEFORE TAXES 336.9 153.6 161.8 155.0 160.1 630.5 178.6 177.8 186.5 179.1 721.9
Benefit (provision) for income taxes (11.6) 9.2 9.7 9.3 9.6 37.8 10.7 10.7 11.2 10.7 14.4
% tax margin 3% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 2%
Adjusted Net Income 309.1 162.8 171.5 164.3 169.7 668.3 189.3 188.4 197.7 189.8 736.3
Adjusted EPS - Consolidated (Full Macau) 2.50 0.91 0.96 0.93 0.96 3.77 1.07 1.07 1.14 1.08 4.34
Diluted Shares Outstanding 123.6 125.0 125.0 125.0 126.0 125.3 126.0 126.0 126.0 126.0 124.0
Adjusted EBITDA Post Stock Option Expense 1066.3 317.5 326.6 319.9 325.0 1,288.9 344.4 343.6 352.4 344.9 1,385.3
Source: Company reports and Sterne, Agee & Leach, Inc. estimates.
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LEISURE & ENTERTAINMENT April 5, 2011
APPENDIX SECTION
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES:
Price Target Risks & Related Risk Factors:
Risks to our investment theses and our price targets include, but are not limited to, a company's failure to achieve Sterne,
Agee & Leach, Inc., earnings and revenue estimates; unforeseen macroeconomic and/or industry events that adversely
affect demand for a company's products or services; product obsolescence; changes in investor sentiment regarding the
specific company or industry; intense and rapidly changing competitive pressures; the continuing development of industry
standards; the company's ability to recruit and retain competent personnel; adverse market conditions, and negative
regulatory and licensing environments. For a complete discussion of the risk factors that could affect the market price of a
company's shares, refer to the most recent Form 10-Q or 10-K that a company has filed with the Securities Exchange
Commission.
Valuation Methodology:
Methodology for assigning ratings and target prices includes qualitative and quantitative factors including an assessment
of industry size, structure, business trends and overall attractiveness; management effectiveness; competition; visibility;
financial condition; and expected total return, among other factors. These factors are subject to change depending on
overall economic conditions or industry or company-specific occurrences. Sterne, Agee & Leach, Inc., analysts in the
Leisure and Entertainment Sector base valuations on a combination of forward looking price to earnings multiples, price
to revenue multiples, and enterprise-value-to-EBITDA ratios. EBITDA is defined as earnings before interest, taxes,
depreciation, and amortization, and is used to gauge the viability of a company to service debt. Sterne, Agee & Leach,
Inc. believes this accurately reflects the absolute value of earnings, the earnings growth rate, the inherent profitability, and
adjusted balance sheet factors.
Regulation Analyst Certification:
I, David Bain, (949) 721-6651, hereby certify the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal
views about the subject security(ies) or issuer(s). I further certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be,
directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by me in this report.
Disclosure Legend
1. Sterne, Agee & Leach, Inc. makes a market in the shares of the subject company.
2. Sterne, Agee & Leach, Inc. has, over the past 12 months, managed or co-managed a public securities
offering or provided other investment banking services for the subject company.
3. Sterne, Agee & Leach, Inc. received compensation for products or services other than investment banking
services from the subject company in the past 12 months.
4. The Sterne Agee analyst who has active coverage on this company owns a position in the subject company.
5. Sterne, Agee & Leach, Inc. or its affiliates beneficially own 1% or more of any class of common equity
securities of the subject company.
Sterne Agee & Leach, Inc. expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from the
subject company in the next three months. Sterne, Agee & Leach, Inc.’s research analysts receive compensation that is
based upon various factors, including Sterne, Agee & Leach, Inc.’s total revenues, a portion of which is generated by
investment banking activities.
Ratings Distribution:
Of the securities rated by Sterne, Agee & Leach, Inc., as of March 31, 2011, 45.6% had a BUY rating, 53.9% had a
NEUTRAL rating, 0.1% had a SELL rating, and 0% was RESTRICTED. Within those ratings categories, 1.59% of the
securities rated BUY, 5.86% rated NEUTRAL, 0% rated SELL, and 0% rated RESTRICTED received investment
banking services from Sterne, Agee & Leach, Inc., within the 12 months preceding March 31, 2011.
Opinions expressed are our present opinions only. This material is based upon information that we consider reliable, but
we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. Sterne, Agee & Leach, Inc.,
its affiliates, or one or more of its officers, employees, or consultants may, at times, have long or short or options
positions in the securities mentioned herein and may act as principal or agent to buy or sell such securities.
Copyright © 2011 Sterne, Agee & Leach, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Sterne, Agee & Leach, Inc. disclosure price charts are updated within the first fifteen days of each new calendar quarter
per FINRA regulations. Price charts for companies initiated upon in the current quarter, and rating and target price
changes occurring in the current quarter, will not be displayed until the following quarter.
Price Chart(s):
To receive price charts or other disclosures on the companies mentioned in this report, please contact Sterne, Agee & Leach, Inc. toll-
free at (800) 240-1438 or (205) 949-3689.
EQUITY RESEARCH
Robert Hoehn Director of Research (212) 338-4731
Email Address for Sterne Agee Employees: first initial + last name@sterneagee.com (e.g., jsmith@sterneagee.com)