You are on page 1of 132

` PROPOSING SUSTAINABLE SMALL HYDRO POWER PLANT

FOR RURAL SETTING

A Case Study of Kilondo Village Ludewa

Emmanuel Anosisye Mwangomo

Msc. (Renewable Energy) Dissertation


University of Dar es salaam
December 2010
PROPOSING SUSTAINABLE SMALL HYDRO POWER PLANT FOR
RURAL SETTING

A Case Study of Kilondo Village Ludewa

By

Emmanuel Anosisye Mwangomo

A Dissertation Submitted in (Partial) Fulfillment of the Requirement for the Degree of


Master of Science in Renewable Energy of the University of Dar es salaam

University of Dar es salaam


December, 2010
i

CERTIFICATION

The undersigned certifies that he has read and hereby recommends for acceptance by the

University of Dar es salaam a dissertation entitled, “Proposing Sustainable Small

Hydro Power Plant for Rural setting. A case study of Kilondo village Ludewa”, in

partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Renewable

Energy of the University of Dar es salaam.

_________________________________

Dr. P.M. Ndomba


(Supervisor)

Date: _________________________
ii

DECLARATION

AND

COPYRIGHT

I, Emmanuel Anosisye Mwangomo, declare that this dissertation is my own original

work and that it has not been presented and will not be presented to any other university

for a similar or any other degree.

Signature………………………………

This dissertation is copyright material protected under the Berne Convection, in the

Copyright Act of 1999 and other international and national enactments, in that behalf, on

intellectual property. It may not be reproduced by any means, in full or in part, except

for short extracts in fair dealing, for research or private study, critical scholarly review

or discourse with an acknowledgment, without written permission of the Director of

Postgraduate Studies, on behalf of both the author and the University of Dar es salaam.
iii

ACKNOWLEGDEMENT

The completion of this work owes much gratitude to many people. It is difficult to

mention them all, however, the following deserve my special thanks for their

contribution and support towards completion of this work.

First of all, I would like to thank God who made all this possible.

Second I would like to thank my supervisor, Dr. P.M. Ndomba, for his intellectual

stimulation, guidance, patience and valuable detailed comments, which enabled this

work to be accomplished. Any shortcoming in the dissertation should however, be solely

blamed on me. My gratitude also goes to the College of Engineering and Technology

(UDSM) for training me in various ways both in the classrooms and outside.

I am indebted, to the Principal and management of Mbeya Institute of Science and

Technology who enabled me to be trained at University of Dar es Salaam, by granting

me financial assistance during my study without which this study would not have been

possible. I also thank Nile Basin Capacity Building Network (NBCN-SEC) for co-

sponsoring the data collection activities.

I would like to extend my sincere gratitude to the following institutions for providing

me with relevant data and information: Ministry of Water and Irrigation, Ministry of

Land and Human Settlement Map Division, Tanzania Electricity Supply Company

(TANESCO), and Kilondo ward office.

I thank Mr. Erick Mwambeleko for hosting me during my visit at Kilondo Village.

Lastly I thank my dear wife Lydia and my kid Michelle together with my classmates for

their cooperation during the whole period of my studies.


iv

DEDICATION

To my mother Tabitha Andembwisye Sankonga Mwangomo


v

ABSTRACT
The remoteness of Kilondo village and its topography makes it difficult to be
connected from the national electric grid. A centralized stand alone hydropower plant
can therefore make a sustainable solution for Kilondo village electrification. The
methods used in this study included: assessing electricity demand; identifying potential
hydropower sites; estimating stream flow regime; conducting preliminary design and
environmental, social and economic appraisal of project. Energy demand survey for
Kilondo village was done and 348 potential consumers and with a diversified market
demand of 86.7 kW was identified. Kilondo River has a potential of producing
electricity by using hydro turbo-generator. The proposed site has a gross head of 117m
and designed flow of 19m3/s and can produce power of 15.6MW which is obtained in a
95% of the time. RETScreen module was used to validate the data calculated manually
and power obtained from the module was 18 MW. Annual energy production estimated
from the module was 130375MWh and the anticipated revenue to be collected is $
6,511,445. The proposed Kilondo hydropower project has been analyzed, its benefits
have been maximized and negative environmental, social and economic impacts have
been minimized so it is sustainable. Based on the analytical work and experimental
investigation an appropriate small hydropower plant for producing electricity for rural
settlement has been proposed which has negative impact on the environment and
positive impact to social welfare of Kilondo people. The limitation of this project is that
it is isolated and anticipated power to be produced exceeds demand of Kilondo village. It
requires another cost of building infrastructure of transmitting electricity to the national
grid; this transmission cost will increase the payback ratio. For the Kilondo hydropower
scheme to be sustainable there is a need to recognize entitlements and share benefits
with directly affected people. The goal should be to ensure that all individuals and
communities affected by developments gain sustainable benefits.
vi

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page

Certification........................................................................................................................i

Declaration And Copy Right..........................................................................ii

Acknowlegdement..............................................................................................iii

Dedication.........................................................................................................................iv

Abstract.............................................................................................................................v

Table Of Contents............................................................................................................vi

List Of Tables....................................................................................................................xi

List Of

Figure....................................................................................................................xii

Abbreviations..................................................................................................................xiv

List Of Symbols..............................................................................................................xvi

CHAPTER ONE:INTRODUCTION 1

1.1. General Introduction ............................................................................................... 1


1.2 General description of the study area ...................................................................... 6
1.2.1 Social economic activities of Kilondo Village...................................................... 10
1.3 Statement of the Problem ...................................................................................... 12
1.4 Objective of the Research ..................................................................................... 13
1.4.1 Main Objective ...................................................................................................... 13
1.4.2 Specific Objective ................................................................................................. 13
1.5 Research Questions ............................................................................................... 14
1.6 Expected output..................................................................................................... 14
1.7 Significancy of the Study ...................................................................................... 14
1.8 Scope of the Study ................................................................................................ 15
vii

1.9 Organization of the Study ..................................................................................... 15


CHAPTER TWO:LITERATURE REVIEW 16

2.1 Sustainable Energy ................................................................................................ 16


2.2 Reneawable Energy............................................................................................... 16
2.3 Hydropower Development .................................................................................... 17
2.3.1 Small hydro power plant overview ...................................................................... 18
2.3.2 Large Hydropower plant overview ...................................................................... 19
2.4 Rural areas ............................................................................................................ 19
2.4.1 Effects of rural electrification .............................................................................. 19
2.5 Significance of small hydro power plant ............................................................. 20
2.6 Components of Small Hydro power plants .......................................................... 21
2.7 Types of Hydro-Electric Schemes ....................................................................... 21
2.7.4 Pumped Storage ................................................................................................... 22
2.8 Types of Turbines ................................................................................................ 22
2.9 Turbine Selection ................................................................................................. 24
2.10 Suitable Condition for Small Hydro Power Plants .............................................. 25
2.11 Hydro Power Generation ..................................................................................... 26
2.11.1 Conversion of Water Power to Electricity .......................................................... 26
2.11.2 Preliminary power and energy calculation .......................................................... 26
2.11.3 Design Flow ........................................................................................................ 27
2.11.4 Capacity Factor ................................................................................................... 27
2.11.5 Rated Power ........................................................................................................ 28
2.11.6 Energy Output ..................................................................................................... 28
2.12. Stream Flow Estimation Methods ....................................................................... 28
2.12.6. Floating Body Method ........................................................................................ 29
2.13. Hydrological data analysis .................................................................................. 30
2.13.1 Rating curve ........................................................................................................ 30
2.13.2 Flow Duration Curve .......................................................................................... 32
2.13.3 Load duration curve ............................................................................................ 32
viii

2.14 Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA)............................................................ 33


2.15. Social Impact Assessment (SIA).......................................................................... 33
2.16. Electrical Demand Analysis ................................................................................ 34
2.16.1 Trend analysis ..................................................................................................... 34
12.16.2 End use approach method .................................................................................. 34
2.16.3 Econometric approach method............................................................................. 35
2.16.4 Load and Energy Forecast .................................................................................... 36
2.17 Economical Appraisal .......................................................................................... 37
2.18. RET Screen Model ............................................................................................... 38
2.18.1 RET Screen Small Hydro Project Module ........................................................... 38
2.18.4 Limitation of RET Screen Small Hydro Project Model ....................................... 39
CHAPTER THREE:METHODS AND MATERIALS 41

3.1. Data Collection..................................................................................................... 41


3.2 PreliminaryElectricity Demand Assessment ........................................................ 42
3.3 Identify potential hydro power sites..................................................................... 43
3.4 Estimate stream flow of the River........................................................................ 43
3.5 Hydrological Modeling ........................................................................................ 44
3.6 Environmental impact assessment ....................................................................... 44
3.7 Social Impact Assessment ..................................................................................... 45
3.8 Preliminary Design of Small Hydro power Plant.................................................. 45
3.9 Economic analysis................................................................................................. 46
CHAPTER FOUR:DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS 48

4.1 Data Collection...................................................................................................... 48


4.1.1 Rainfall Data ......................................................................................................... 48
4.1.2 Hydrologic Data .................................................................................................... 48
4.1.3 Drainage area ........................................................................................................ 49
4.1.4 Stream velocity...................................................................................................... 49
4.1.5 Cross sectional area of the Kilondo River............................................................. 50
4.1.6 Stream Discharge of Kilondo River ...................................................................... 52
ix

4.1.7 Environmental and Social Impact assessment ...................................................... 52


4.1.8 Number of identified consumers in Kilondo Village ............................................ 53
4.2 Data Analysis ........................................................................................................ 53
4.2.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................... 53
4.2.2 Data preparation .................................................................................................... 53
4.2.3 Mean Annual Flow for gauged site ...................................................................... 54
4.3 Flow-duration curve for gauged catchment ......................................................... 54
4.4 Estimating mean annual flow for ungauged catchment ....................................... 57
4.5 Correlation Analysis ............................................................................................ 58
4.6 Estimating a flow-duration curve for ungauged catchment ................................. 60
4.7 Identification of potential micro hydropower plant site....................................... 62
4.8 Head Measurement .............................................................................................. 64
4.9 Determining Power Potential ............................................................................... 64
4.10 Determination of load and energy demand for Kilondo village .......................... 66
4.11 Selection of Turbine ............................................................................................. 67
4.11.1 Determination of specific speed of the turbine, n (rpm) ...................................... 67
4.11.2 No. of poles, p ...................................................................................................... 68
4.11.3 Check of Cavitations ............................................................................................ 68
4.12 Design of Civil Structure ..................................................................................... 70
4.13 Social Impact Assessment .................................................................................... 80
4.14 Evironmental Impact Assessments ...................................................................... 81
4.15 Economical Appraisal .......................................................................................... 82
4.16 Hydrological Modeling ........................................................................................ 83
CHAPTER FIVE:CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS 86

REFERFNCES 90

APPENDICES 95

APPENDIX A: Diversified Unit Load…..……………………………………….…..95

APPENDIX B: Demand Survey Questionnaire............................................................96


x

APPENDIX C: Questionnaire for Households of Non-Electrified Villages..................97

APPENDIX D: Number of Identified Consumers in Kilondo-Ludewa.......................103

APPENDIX E: Load Demand Determination for Kilondo-Ludewa…………..…….105

APPENDIX F: Maximum Power in Kilondo Village.................................................106

APPENDIX H: Energy demand forecast for 25 years.................................................107

APPENDIX I: Social Safeguards Screening Checklist...............................................108

APPENDIX J: Checklist for Environmental Impact Assessment................................111

APPENDIX K: Average Monthly Rainfall (mm) for Kilondo from 1976-1980 .......... 112
Appendix M: Layout of Kilondo Hydropower Plan....................................................113
xi

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1: Existing electric power plant generation in Tanzania – interconnected………..2

Table 2: Variation of capacity factor with design flow……………………………...….28

Table 3: Mean Monthly Flow (m3/s) for Lumbira River from (1976-1985)…………...47

Table 4: Stream Velocities at Different Locations on May 2010……………………….48

Table 5: Mean annual flow (m3/s) for Lumbira River for the period 1976 to 1985….…52

Table 6: Shows Calculation of Daily Mean discharge and Plotting position…………...53

Table 7: Average Flows (m3/s) and Rainfall (mm) Data from 1976 – 1980…………...57

Table 8: Calculation of Karl Pearson’s coefficient of correlation (r)........................…...58

Table 9: Calculation for the flows (m3/s) of ungauged catchment...........................…....59

Table 10: Peak load (kW) for 25 years for γ = 0.25…………………………….....……64

Table 11: Vertical velocities of particles..................................................................…....74


xii

LIST OF FIGURE

Figure 1: Status of Energy Consumption in Tanzania…………………………………...1

Figure 2: Tanzania map showing small hydropower sites concentrations………...………5

Figure 3: Map of Ludwig District showing Location of Kilondo Village……………....7

Figure 4: A graph of annual hydrograph for Kilondo River ………...…………..……....9

Figure 5: Nyasa Basin Hydrometeorogical gauging stations……………………………………..9

Figure 6: Economic activities of Kilondo people……………………………….....…....11

Figure 7: Hydrologic Cycle of water……………...……………………………………17

Figure 8: Hydropower Plant System……………………………...…………………….18

Figure 9: Layout of a typical small hydro scheme……………………………..….……21

Figure 10: Francis Turbine………………………………………..………………….…24

Figure 11: Turbine Selection Chart…………………………..…………………………25

Figure. 12: Hydraulic turbine and electrical generator …………………………………26

Figure 13: Measuring the cross-sectional area of a Kilondo river…………………..….30

Figure 14: Graph of a Rating Curve………………………………………..……...……31

Figure 15: Measuring stream velocity and cross sectional area of Kilondo River……..49

Figure 16: Flows – Duration Curve for Gauged Catchment, Labial……………...….....54

Figure17 : Lumbila Catchment delineated using Arcview GIS………………………..54

Figure 18: Kilondo Catchment Area delineated using GIS……………………………..56

Figure 19: Flow Duration Curve for ungauged Kilondo catcment…………………..…60


xiii

Figure 20 :The profile of Kilondo River….…………………………………………….61

Figure 21: Kilondo River water falls(S 9° 44.23”, E 34° 18.93”)…………………........62

Figure : 22 Load Duration Curve For Kilondo River…………………………………..63

Figure 23: Cross section of Francis runner………………………………………..…….67

Figure 24: Intake and Weir……………………………………..…………………….…69

Figure 25: Section of Headrace…………………...…………………………………….72

Figure 26: Financial viability of Kilondo Hydropower plant………………………..…81

Figure 27: Flow duration and power curves of kilondo river…………………………...82

Figure 28: Graph of Francis turbine efficience ………………………………………...83


xiv

ABBREVIATIONS

Abbreviations Description

AHEC Alternate Hydro Energy Centre

BILA British Hydropower Association

DEM Digital Elevation Model

DNO Distribution Network

EIA Environmental Impact Assessment

EIS Environmental Impact Assessment Statement

e-RGNEPAL Environmental Resources Group

ESHA European Small Hydropower Association

FDC Flow Duration Curve

GFKF Gross fixed capital formation

GHG Green House Gas

GP Government policy

I Investment

IAIA International Association for Impact Assessment

ICT Information and Communication Technology

IEA International Energy Agency

IHA International Hydropower Association

kWh Kilowatt-hour

LDC Load Duration Curve


xv

MEM Ministry of Energy and Minerals

Mwh Megawatt hour

Nacl Sodium Chloride

NBCBN Nile Basin Capacity Building Network

NEMC National Environmental Management Council

OP Population

RETScreen Renewable Energy Technology Software

RIMA Rapid Impact Assessment

RPM Revolution per Minute

SIA Social Impact Assessment

T Technology

TANESCO Tanzania Electricity Supply Company.

TMA Tanzania Metrological Agency

TNBS Tanzania Bureau of Statistics

UDSM University of Dar-es-salaam

URT United Republic of Tanzania

ZESCO Zanzibar Electricity Supply Company


xvi

LIST OF SYMBOLS

Symbols Description Unit


∀ Volume of tracer m3

A Area m2

C Roughness index -

Cd Coefficient of discharge -

CF Capacity Factor -

ct Tracer concentration

Dg Group diversity factor -

Du Diversified unit load -

E Energy consumption of an appliance kWh

g Acceleration due to gravity m/s2

∆h Head difference m

H Head m

L Notch width m

P Electrical power W

P Power required by the appliance kW

Pi Own price $

Pj Price of related fuels $

Qmean Mean Flow m3/s


0
1

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION
1.1. General Introduction

Electricity is the engine of development of any society. In Tanzania only two percent of

rural population have access to electricity (MEM, 2003).The development of rural

Tanzania is very important since 80% of population in Tanzania is living in rural areas

(URT, 2002). This implies there is still an urgent need to encourage and promote the

supply of affordable energy sources in rural areas where the majority of the population

live. The current status of energy consumption in our country is dominated by biomass

which account for more than 90% of energy used. Petroleum accounts for 8% of the

total energy consumed, while grid electricity is estimated to account for only 1% of the

primary energy used in the country. Others including renewable energy sources such as

solar, wind, geothermal, hydropower and biogas account for about 1% of the total

energy consumed in Tanzania (Kabaka and Gwang’ombe, 2007).

Figure 1: Status of Energy Consumption in Tanzania

Source: (MEM, 2003)


2

The generation of electricity in Tanzania is mainly from both hydro and thermal power

plants (Table 1). The total installed capacity on the interconnected grid is about 1252

MW of which 562 MW (45%) is hydro and the rest is thermal (URT, 2008). The

Tanzania Electric Supply Company Limited is responsible for the generation,

transmission, distribution and the selling of electricity in mainland Tanzania and also

sells bulk power to Zanzibar where it is distributed to consumers via a local state owned

distribution company (ZESCO).

Table 1: Existing electric power plant generation in Tanzania – interconnected


system
Plant Name Fuel Type Units Size - Installed Available
MW Capacity - MW Capacity - MW
Kidatu Hydro 4 51 204 200
Kihansi Hydro 3 60 180 180
Mtera Hydro 2 40 80 80
New Pangani Falls Hydro 2 34 68 66
Hale Hydro 2 10.5 21 10.5
Nyumba ya Mungu Hydro 2 4 8 8
Uwemba Hydro 1 0.84 0.84 0.76
Total Hydro 562 545
SONGAS I Gas 2 21 42 38
SONGAS II Gas 3 40 120 110
SONGAS III Gas 1 40 40 37
TEGETA_IPTL HFO 10 10 103 100
UBUNGO_T Gas 10 10 102 100
UBUNGO_D IDO 1 34 34 10
ZUZU_D IDO 1 7 7 6.7
IYUNGA_D IDO 1 14 14 12.51
TABORA_D IDO 1 10 10 9.18
NYAKATO_D IDO 1 13 13 11
NJOMBE_D IDO 1 1.3 1.3 1
3

DOWANS I Gas 1 35 35 31.5


DOWANS II Gas 4 20 80 71
AGGREKO Gas 44 1 44 40
ALSTOM HFO 44 1 44 40
Total Thermal 690 618.5
Grand Total 1252 1163.5
Source: URT- Power System Master Plan Study Final report Volume ii - Main Report
September 2008

Hydro power plants convert potential energy which is contained in falling water into

electricity. Generation from the hydropower plants is dependent on flow of water in the

river which, undesirably, is stochastic in nature, exhibiting spatial variability as well as

temporal variations (daily, seasonal, annual and over-year variations).

The basic principle of hydro power is that if water is released from a higher level to a

lower level, then the resulting potential energy of water is be used to do work (Mtalo et.

al. 2007).The water head is used to move a mechanical component, which converts the

potential energy of the water into mechanical energy. Hydro turbines convert water

pressure into mechanical shaft power, which can be used to drive a generator

(Mohibullah. et al.2004). Hydro power is a very clean source of energy and only uses

water, the water after generating electrical power, is available for other purposes. Hydro

power is currently the world's largest renewable source of electricity. Hydropower

constitutes 21% of the world’s electricity generating capacity. The theoretical potential

of worldwide hydropower is 2,800 GW, about four times greater than the 723 GW that

has been exploited (e-RGNepal, 2007).


4

Small hydro power plant (SHP) is a scheme with installed capacity of up to 10 MW

(ESHA, 2004). Not only small hydro is a non-polluting energy source, but also it is

much more efficient than the burning of fossil fuels for electricity generation. In respect

to coal burning, the most common energy source, small hydro power is greatly more

efficient. Efficiency of small hydro units range 60% to 90% while modern coal burning

units are 43% to 60% efficient (Wazed and Ahmed, 2008). The best geographical areas

for exploiting small-scale hydro power are those where there are steep rivers flowing all

year round, for example, the hill areas of countries with high year-round rainfall, or the

great mountain ranges and their foothills.

To assess the suitability of a potential site, the hydrology of the site needs to be known

and a site survey carried out, to determine actual flow and head data. In Tanzania small

hydropower potential is estimated at 300 MW with total installed capacity of 4.0 MW

(Karekezi, et.al, 2005). Figure 2 shows small hydro power potential sites of Tanzania.

Small-scale hydropower is one of the most cost-effective and reliable energy sources to

be considered for providing clean electricity generation. In particular, the key

advantages that small hydropower has over other renewable energy sources, i.e. wind,

wave and solar power are: no submergence, no need for environmental clearance,

gestation period is very low, less capital investment, less operation and maintenance

cost, it is a renewable source of energy free from any major environment impact and

creates small nodes of development of the area with lower transmission cost.
5

Legend:

General location of the small hydro potential sites in Tanzania. N.B. Size of the
sphere represents relative number of sites in the region.

River
Figure 2: Tanzania map showing small hydropower sites concentrations.
Source: NBCBN (2005)

According to Klunne (2010) key barriers hindering the development of SHP in Africa

can be summarized as follows: Lack of infrastructure for the design and manufacture of

turbines, installation and operation; Difficulty of access to appropriate technologies pico,

micro, mini and small hydropower; Absence of local capacity (local skills and know

how) in developing SHP projects ; Lack of information about potential sites

(hydrological data); Lack of SHP awareness, incentives and motivation; Lack of private

sector participation in SHP development; and Lack of joint venture (public and private

sector partnership). International hydropower association IHA (2003) has grouped these
6

barriers into economic social and environment aspects. Economic aspects which affected

by High upfront investment, precipitation dependent, decreased storage capacity due to

sedimentation, long-term planning requirement and agreement and often requires foreign

contractors and funding. In social aspect these barriers involve: resettlement,

modification of local land use pattern, requirement of management of completing water

use, addressing effect of impacted people’s live hood. Environmentally these barriers are

in the following: Inundation of hydrological regime; modification of aquatic habitats;

water quality, species activities and sediment composition and transport needs to be

monitored.

Africa has one of the lowest hydropower utilization rates. Currently less than 7 % of the

potential has been harnessed (Klunne, 2010). Small hydrower can adequately contribute

to the electricity needs of African countries. Currently the installed capacity of SHP in

Africa is 228MW which is only 0.5% of the total world installed (US DOE, 2004).

1.2 General description of the study area

Kilondo Village is located in Ludewa District, Iringa region in the Southern western part

of United Republic of Tanzania (Figure 3). It’s about 100 km from Ludewa town with a

rough road through mountainous areas and Lake Nyasa. The population of the village is

1130 people with 330 households scattered with one primary school, one dispensary and

five small shops at the trading center and two grain mills.
7

Figure 3: Map of Ludewa District showing Location of Kilondo Village/Catchment


8

The main economic activity of the people is fishing and Agriculture (Fig 6(a), a, b, c, d).

The village has never been electrified. Currently, the main sources of energy at Kilondo

village are: firewood, charcoal, kerosene, dry cells, car batteries and a few with

photovoltaic systems. The identifiable and underutilized sources of energy are Solar and

Hydro power from Kilondo river located at 09o 44.545”South 034o 18.7”East. The

village is bounded by Nkiwe village at the Western side, Lumbira village at the Northern

part, Lake Nyasa at the Eastern side and Ifungu village to the Southern part. This village

is located in a mountainous slopes area where it is linked with many rivers which drains

their water into Lake Nyasa. The area is in tropical Savannah climate where it has two

distinct seasons that is rainy and dry seasons. The rainy season begins in January and

ends in June, where dry seasons starts in July and ends in December when rainy starts

again. Kilondo experiences a maximum of rainfall of 150 mm and 2.68 mm minimum.

Temperature recorded at Kilondo between 8°and 25° C, where 8° is minimum and 25

maximum. Kilondo River is a perennial stream with a minimum and maximum monthly

run of 15mm3/s and 164.9mm3/s respectively.


9

Figure 4: A monthly hydrograph for Kilondo River

Source: Author (2010)

Figure 5: Nyasa Basin Hydrometeorogical gauging stations


Source: (URT, 2010)
10

1.2.1 Social economic activities of Kilondo Village

People living at Kilondo Village are Kisi by tribe and they rely largely on fishing and

cultivation of cassava (Fig.6) Their major source of income is fishing on the Lake

Nyasa. Lake Nyasa has variety of different types of fishes. At Kilondo fishing is done by

men only. It is not possible for women to be involved in fishing activities; they believe

that if a woman fishes the lake will not yield more fish catches. Women of Kilondo are

involved in alternative business such as making pots. Women make pots for their own

domestic use and for sale for cash or bartered for food. Cassava is the main staple food

of Kilondo people; it is processed into flour so that it can be used for making stiff

porridge “ugali” which is the staple food in the area.


11

Figure 6(a) Fish drying at Kilondo Figure 6(c) Cassava farm at Kilondo

Figure 6 (c) Pots manufactured in Figure 6 (d) Fishing net preparation

Kilondo Village

Figure 6: Economic activities of Kilondo people

Source: Author (2010)


12

1.3 Statement of the Problem

Electricity is one of the vital ingredients of socio-economic development of modern

society (Abosedra, et al.2009). Energy is a prime mover of development. There is direct

correlation of energy consumption and economic growth of a society or country. Access

to modern energy services is fundamental to fulfilling basic social needs, driving

economic growth and fueling human development. This is because energy services have

an effect on productivity, health, education, safe water and communication services.

Modern services such as electricity, natural gas, modern cooking fuel and mechanical

power are necessary for improved health and education, better access to information and

agricultural productivity. Tanzania has average per capital electricity consumption of

Energy 85 Kwh per annum which is low in comparison to 432Kwh and 2176Kwh for

Sub-Saharan Africa and the world average for year 2000(Kabaka and

Gwang’ombe,2007 as quoted in World Bank,2003). Eighty percent of Tanzanian

population lives in rural areas. Where two percent of rural population has access to

electricity (MEM, 2003).

The remoteness of Kilondo Village and its topography makes it difficult to be connected

the electricity the grid. Grid expansion to Kilondo village is not expected in the near

future and therefore decentralized stand alone power plant turbo-generators can

therefore make a sustainable solution for Kilondo village electrification. Therefore, an

exploration of sustainable small hydro energy source that can be maintained in a

decentralized approach, and that the poor can afford, is urgently needed. The absence of

reliable source of energy hinders economic development and provision of social services
13

of Kilondo people. Kilondo village has ungauged river which is considered to have a

potential of producing electricity. The electrical energy in the river has not been utilized

and is lost. Inadequate hydrological information and load demand analysis are the

problems which faces the implementation of a sustainable small hydro power plant

project at ungauged site such as Kilondo River. In this research study the above

mentioned problem would be addressed to develop an affordable, locally serviceable,

off-the-grid generating unit that will provide electricity at the village scale with minimal

environmental impact. It should be easy to implement unit in low-head, variable flow,

high erosion rivers using locally available technologies.

1.4 Objective of the Research

The objectives of the study are divided into general objective and specific objectives.

1.4.1 Main Objective

Main objective of the research study is to propose a sustainable small hydro power for

rural setting.

1.4.2 Specific Objective

The specific objectives of this research are:

1. To assess electricity demand of Kilondo village

2. To estimate head and stream flow of the river suitable for covering this demand.

3. To conduct preliminary design of a small hydro power plant.

4. To conduct environmental, social and economical appraisals of the village.


14

1.5 Research Questions

The following are research questions to be answered at the end of the study:

1. What is status of energy demand in Kilondo Village?

2. What is the status of stream flow regime in Kilondo River?

3. How many potential sites are there in Kilondo River suitable for installing small

hydro power plant?

4. What is the hydro energy potential of Kilondo rivers

5. What is the suitable and affordable design of small hydro power plant for rural

setting, Kilondo village?

6. Which other villages can be served?

7. What other uses can this energy resource cover?

1.6 Expected output

i. The stream flow regime of Kilondo River Hydrograph and Flow duration curve

ii. A number of potential alternative sites suitable for installing small hydro power

plant and their output (each and total)

iii. Energy demand of Kilondo village and a rough estimate of demand in other area

nearby.

iv. Proposed preliminary design of SHP for rural setting of Kilondo village

1.7 Significance of the Study

This study aims at evaluating the small hydropower potential for rural setting. Lack of

adequate source of electrical energy in rural area is a serious problem which hinders the
15

development of rural areas. The study has a number of significant aspects. It is

significant in the following ways:

1. The study aims at contributing ideas on the existing knowledge on the subject

and unfolding the unknown in the subject matter.

2. The research findings will help those who are concerned with the development

of small hydropower plants, as it is stipulated in the energy policy with respect

to the rural energy(energy policy, 2003)

3. No research has so far been carried out in Kilondo (Ludewa) concerning

evaluation of small hydropower potentials. This research intends to give useful

information on development of small hydropower in similar setting in Tanzania.

4. Guidelines developed will be used for other SHP sites in Tanzania.

5. This research will form a basis for the development of SHP technology in

Tanzania.

1.8 Scope of the Study

It is limited to rural setting of Kilondo village as the case study. The study does not

cover detail design of the hydropower machines and civil works using rigorous analysis.

The economic analysis is based on preliminary design concept.

1.9 Organization of the Study

This dissertation report has been done through following sequence of steps: Literature

review; Experimental set up; Data collection; Testing the collected data in the

RETScreen module software; and Dissertation report writing.


16

CHAPTER TWO

LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 Sustainable Energy

Sustainable energy is the provision of energy such that it meets the needs of the present

without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs. Sustainable

energy sources are most often regarded as including all renewable sources, such as

hydro power biofuels, solar power, wind power, wave power, geothermal power and

tidal power. International Hydropower Association (IHA, 2004) has produced a set of

Sustainability Guidelines which are based on economic, social and environmental

aspects. Sustainable development requires the integration of three components:

economic development, social development and environmental protection as

interdependent, mutually reinforcing pillars.

2.2 Renewable Energy

Renewable energy is from an energy resource that is replaced by a natural process at a

rate that is equal to or faster than the rate at which that resource is being consumed.

Renewable energy can come from a variety of sources. Renewable energy generally

means solar, wind, water, wood or other biomass source of energy and geothermal

energy. Hydro power one form of renewable energy since it is naturally replenished.

Hydropower is a key component of renewable energy, and supports protection against

climate change (Seeger,et al, 2010). Figure 7 below shows the hydrological movement

which is the continuous movement of water on, above and below the surface of the
17

Earth. Hydropower uses the energy of flowing water, without depleting it, to produce

electricity; therefore, all hydropower projects – small or large, run-of-river or storage –

meet the definition of renewable energy resource.

Figure 7: Hydrologic Cycle


(Source: http://www.google.co.tz/imgres?imgurl=http://northwestplumbingtampa.com)

2.3 Hydropower Development

Hydropower is the production of mechanical energy by passing water through a

hydraulic machine that is rotated by the action of water and the machine in turns rotates

an electrical generator to produce electrical energy (Wazed and Ahmed, 2008). In hydro

power, the kinetic energy of the water depends on two aspects, head and flow. The head

refers to the vertical distance the water travels and the flow refers to the volume of the

water that passes through in the given amount of time (Fig.8). Hydropower plant can be

classified according to the power they produce into the following large, medium, small,

mini, micro and pico.


18

Figure 8: Hydropower plant system

Source: Fritz.J.J (1984)

2.3.1 Small hydro power plant overview

There is no consensus definition on small hydro power plants. Some countries accept 10

MW as the upper limit for installed capacity (ESHA, 2004). For the sake of this research

small hydro power plant is any scheme which has a capacity of generating electrical

energy up to 10 MW. Small hydropower schemes combine the advantages of large

hydro on the one hand and a decentralized power supply, on the other hand. They do not

have many of the disadvantages, such as environmental issues high cost of investment as

in the case of large hydro power plant. Moreover, the harnessing of small hydro-

resources, being of a decentralized nature, lends itself to decentralized utilization. Local

implementation and management, making rural development possible basing on

entrepreneurship and the use of natural, local resources. Small hydro power plants can

be connected to national electricity grid. Most of them are run-of-river type; they do not
19

have any sizeable reservoir and produce electricity when water provided by the river

flow is available, when the river dries up generation ceases. The Efficiency of small

hydro units range from 60% to 90% while modern coal burning thermal power stations

are 43% to 60% efficient (Wazed and Ahmed, 2008)

2.3.2 Large Hydropower plant overview

Large hydropower stations are those which have installed capacity of more than

100MW. These stations store large amount of water by using dams (Seeger,et al, 2010).

2.4 Rural areas

The term “rural area” refers to a physical location outside of areas that are

administratively managed by urban authorities. Rural areas are relatively far deprived in

terms of modern energy infrastructure.. Rural areas are sparsely settled places away

from the influence of large cities and towns. Such areas are distinct from the more

intensively settled urban areas (Maleko, 2005). Kilondo is one of the rural area in

Tanzania it is isolated; it can be accessed by using Lake Nyasa only. At Kilondo there is

no modern energy infrastructure like electricity and water pump. People of Kilondo use

firewood for cooking and kerosene lamp for lighting.

2.4.1 Effects of rural electrification

Rural electrification is important for the sake of retaining people in rural areas.

Electrification is needed to secure the living standard and create opportunities for jobs.

There many environmental, economic, and social effects of rural electrification, some

are positive and others are negative. Environmental effects of rural electrification
20

include: Limit to the contribution to the green house effect, prevents deforestation, limits

pollution, and uses less of the world’s limited resources. Economically rural

electrification has the following effects: – Stops the mitigation of poverty belts, allows

commercial and industrial activities, causes an increased efficiency of agriculture.

Socially there are both positive and negative effects which are: – allows more education,

allows entertainment, improves safety and political stability, Allows medical treatment

and supply of clean water, creates more personal safety problems, encourages more

alcohol use, Allows longer working hours, Encourages prostitution, Causes bad

influences of movies and allows an increase of living standard. These items are some

examples of various effects that can be expected as a result of electrification. Naturally

the effects depend on local conditions and not all of the effects can be expected

everywhere (Ehnberg, 2007).

2.5 Significance of small hydro power plant

Hydro power plant has the following significance: suitable resources; diversified energy

supply options; cost of generation of electricity is low; short planning and development

period; SHP projects have lower impacts to environment; it can be implemented and is

affordable for small developers; electrification of rural areas and remote areas; grid

stability , building SHP plants help create a more diversified electricity system,

providing production of electricity in smaller distribution systems when the main grid is

disrupted; rural residential lighting & ICT (isolated or mini grid) ; and rural industrial

and agricultural power supply.


21

2.6 Components of Small Hydro power plants

Small run-of-the-river hydropower systems consist of the following basic components.

Fig 9 (Boustani, 2009) :Small diversion dam ; water conveyance channel ; fore bay ;

pipeline, or pressurized pipeline (penstock); turbine transforms the energy of flowing

water into rotational energy; alternator or generator transforms the rotational energy into

electricity; regulator controls the generator - wiring delivers the electricity; tail race;

power house ; and switchyard.

Figure 9: Layout of a typical small hydro scheme


Source: (Boustani, 2009)

2.7 Types of Hydro-Electric Schemes

There are three types of hydropower plants which are impoundment, diversion, and

pumped storage.
22

2.7.1 Diversion schemes

These plants use little, if any, stored water to provide water flow through the turbines.

Although some plants store a day or week's worth of water, weather changes especially

seasonal changes cause run-of-river plants to experience significant fluctuations in

power output. The schemes do not include any significant water storage, and therefore

make use of whatever water is flowing in the river.

2.7.2 Storage schemes

Hydro schemes may also be based on the construction of a large dam to store water and

to provide sufficient head for the turbine. Schemes have enough storage capacity to off-

set seasonal fluctuations in water flow and provide a constant supply of electricity

throughout the year. Large dams can store several years’ worth of water.

2.7.3 Pumped Storage


Pumped storage hydroelectricity is a type of hydroelectric power generation used by

some power plants for load balancing. The method stores energy in the form of water,

pumped from a lower elevation reservoir to a higher elevation. During periods of high

electrical demand, the stored water is released through turbines.

2.8 Types of Turbines

Hydraulic or water turbines are the machines which use the energy of water

(hydropower) and convert into mechanical energy (ESHA, 2004). In general there are

two types of turbines which are: Impulse turbines which comprises of pelton, Turgo and
23

cross flow turbines, and Reaction turbines which comprises of Francis Propeller

,Kaplan and Bulb turbines .

2.8.1 Francis Turbines

Francis turbines are reaction turbines with fixed runner blades and adjustable guide

vanes used for medium heads (Fig 10). They can be used for the head from 25 to 350 m

(ESHA, 2004). The Francis turbines may be divided in two groups; horizontal and

vertical shaft. In practice turbines with comparatively small dimensions are arranged

with horizontal shaft, while larger turbines have vertical shaft. Francis turbines can

either be volute-cased or open-flume machines. The spiral casing is tapered to distribute

water uniformly around the entire perimeter of the runner and the guide vanes feed the

water into the runner at the correct angle. The Francis turbine is generally fitted with

adjustable guide vanes. The runner blades are profiled in a complex manner and direct

the water so that it exits axially from the centre of the runner. In doing so the water

imparts most of its pressure energy to the runner before leaving the turbine via a draft

tube
24

Spiral Casing

TurbineRunner

Draft Tube

Figure 10: Francis Turbine


Sourced: www.tfd.chalmers.se/.../phdproject/proright.html

2.9 Turbine Selection

The following factors are considered when selecting a turbine : Head and discharge,

Specific speed, Variation of head, Maximum efficiency, Part load efficiency, Initial cost

of civil works, No. of units,. Running and maintenance cost and Cavitation

characteristics (Fig.11).
25

Figure 11: Turbine Selection Chart


Source: ESHA (2004)

2.10 Suitable Condition for Small Hydro Power Plants

The best geographical areas for exploiting small-scale hydro power plants are those

where there are steep rivers flowing all year round, for example, the hill areas of

countries with high year-round rainfall, or the great mountain ranges and their foothills

(Kabaka and Gwang’ombe, 2007).


26

2.11 Hydro Power Generation

2.11.1 Conversion of Water Power to Electricity

The hydro electric plants work by converting the kinetic energy from water falling into

electric energy. This is achieved from water powering a turbine, and using the rotation

movement to transfer energy through a shaft to an electric generator (Fig12).

Hydroelectricity eliminates the flue gas emissions from fossil fuel combustion, including

pollutants such as sulfur dioxide, nitric oxide, carbon monoxide, dust, and mercury in

the coal. Compared to the nuclear power plant, hydroelectricity generates no nuclear

waste, nor nuclear leaks.

Figure. 12: Hydraulic turbine and electrical generator


Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydroelectricity.(2010)

2.11.2 Preliminary power and energy calculation

The amount of energy that can be produced at a site is directly proportional to the

amount of water (flow) and the difference in elevation between the impoundment
27

surface and the turbine (head). A simple calculation using the “power equation” allows

one to estimate the amount of energy that can be produced at an assumed design flow

P = ηρgQoH ……………………………………………………………………….(01)

Where:

η = hydraulic efficiency of turbine;

ρ = density of water (kg/m3);

g = acceleration due to gravity (m/s2);

Qo = Design flow (m3/s);

H = Head – effective pressure of water flowing into the turbine (m) (net head); and

P = Electrical power (w).

2.11.3 Design Flow

It is not promising to have a scheme that uses significantly more than the mean river

flow (Qmean) since it will not be environmentally acceptable or economically attractive.

Therefore the turbine design flow for a run-of river scheme (a scheme operating with no

appreciable water storage) will not normally be greater than Qmean. The greater the

chosen value of the design flow, the smaller proportion of the year that the system will

be operating on full power, i.e. it will have a lower ‘Capacity factor’. So in order to have

a full power the design flow should be less than the mean flow.

2.11.4 Capacity Factor

The ‘Capacity factor’ is a ratio summarizing how hard a turbine is working, expressed as

follows:
28

Capacity factor (%) = Energy generated per year (kWh/year)……………………..……. (02)


Installed capacity (kW) x 8760 hours/year

A Table 2 below shows how Capacity factor varies with design flow as given as follows:

Table 2: Variation of capacity factor with design flow


Design Flow QO Capacity Factor
Qmean 40%
0.75Qmean 50%
0.5 Qmean 60%
0.33 Qmean 70%
Source : BILA(2005)

2.11.5 Rated Power


The peak power P can be estimated from the design flow Q0 and head H as follows:

P =7xQoxH………………...………………………………………………..……….. (03)

P = Electrical power in (kW);

Qo = Design flow (m3/s); and

H = Head (m)

2.11.6 Energy Output


The annual energy output is then estimated using the Capacity Factor (CF) as follows:

E = P xCF x8760…………….………………………………………………………..

(04)

E = Energy (kWh/year)

P = Electrical Power (kW)

8760 = Hours per year

2.12. Stream Flow Estimation Methods


29

Flow rate is the quantity of water available in a stream or river and may vary widely

over the course of a day, week, month and year (Brassington, 1988; Hauer and Lamberti,

1996). Mathematically Stream flow or discharge is the rate at which a volume of water

passes through the cross section of the stream per unit time, and as such has SI units of

cubic meters per second (m3/s) or cumecs. The common methods for measuring stream

flow are: Volumetric, Velocity, Method, Dilution and Floating body method.

2.12.6. Floating Body Method

In this method of measuring stream flow, velocity of the stream is measured by using a

floating object. The floating object, which is largely submerged (for instance a wood

plug or a partially filled bottle), is located in the centre of the stream flow (Wazed et.al,

2008). The time t (seconds) elapsed to traverse a certain length L (m) is recorded. The

surface speed (m/s) would be the quotient of the length L and the time t. To estimate the

mean velocity, the above value must be multiplied by a correction factor that may vary

between 0.60 and 0.85 (ESHA, 2004) depending on the watercourse depth, bottom and

riverbank roughness. The accuracy of this method is dependent on the range of

correction factor. Mean flow of the stream is obtained by multiplying the stream flow

velocity and its cross sectional area.

Mean stream flow (m3/s) = Q x A……………………………………………………(05)

Q =Average flow velocity (m/s)

A = Cross sectional area (m2)


30

Figure 13 below shows how to determine the cross sectional area of the stream. Where h

is height at different points, b is a stream width and s is the cross sectional area.

Figure 13: Measuring the cross-sectional area


Source. ESHA (2004)
The following materials are needed in this method: copies of stream flow calculation

sheet; stop watch; meter stick; waders; long tape measure; and oranges.

2.13. Hydrological data analysis

Hydrology is the science that encompasses the occurrence, distribution, movement and

properties of the waters of the earth and their relationship with the environment within

each phase of the hydrologic cycle. Surface hydrology: Related to movement of

water over the ground surface includes both overland flow and stream flow.

2.13.1Rating curve
31

Rating curve is a graph of discharge versus stage for a given point on a stream, usually

at gauging stations, where the stream discharge is measured across the stream channel

with a flow meter. Numerous measurements of stream discharge are made over a range

of stream stages. The rating curve is usually plotted as stage on x-axis versus discharge

on y-axis (Herschy, 1999).

:
Figure 14: Rating Curve
Source(ESHA,2004)

In order to develop a rating curve two procedures have to be followed, first the

relationship between stage and discharge is established by measuring the stage and

corresponding discharge in the river. Second stage of river is measured and discharge is

calculated by using the relationship established in the first part. Stage is measured by

reading a gauge installed in the river. If G represents stage for discharge Q, then the

relationship between G and Q is expressed by a single valued equation (Herschy, 1999)

Q = C r (G − a )β ............................................................................................................ (06)
32

Where Cr and β are rating curve constants ‘a’ is a constant which represents the gauge

reading corresponding to zero discharge.

2.13.2 Flow Duration Curve

A flow duration curve (FDC) is a graphical plot of daily stream flow versus the percent

of days that the stream flow value is exceeded. FDC provides a probabilistic description

of stream flow at a given location. A flow duration curve relates flow values to the

percent of time those values have been met or exceeded. The FDC is used to assess the

expected availability of flow over time and the power and energy at a site and to decide

on the “design flow” in order to select the turbine. If a system is to be independent of

any other energy or utility backup, the design flow should be the flow that is available

95 percent of the time or more (Arora, 1996).

2.13.3 Load duration curve

Load duration curve (LDC) shows the cumulative frequency distribution of the system

load. It represents graphically how much energy is supplied to the various levels of the

system load. The distribution of the loads as shown by load duration curves gives the

planner vital information for determining the proper mix of base, intermediate, and peak

capacity. It also helps to determine the cost of the facility to meet load demands (Jalal,

1999). A power duration curve is plotted between the power as ordinate and the

percentage of time at a particular amount of power is equaled or exceeded as abscissa.


33

2.14 Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA)

Environmental impact assessment is defined as a process of identifying, predicting,

evaluating and mitigating the biophysical, social, and other relevant effects of

development proposals prior to major decisions being taken and commitments made

(IAIA, 1994). The following issues are considered in evaluating environmental impact

assessment for hydro power development: Water quality, sediment transport and

erosion, Downstream hydrology and environmental flows, Rare and endangered species,

passage of fish species, pest species within the reservoir (flora & fauna), Health issues,

Construction activities and Environmental management systems.

2.15. Social Impact Assessment (SIA)

Social impact assessment is a process of analysing, predicting and evaluating the future

social and economic effects of proposed policy, program and project decisions and

actions on the well-being of people, and their businesses, institutions and communities.

Its goal is to protect and enhance the quality of life by ensuring that potential socio-

economic impacts are minimized and sound environmental decisions are made

(Stevenson, 1994). Social impacts means the consequences to human populations of

any public or private actions-that alter the ways in which people live, work, play, relate

to one another, organize to meet their needs and generally cope as members of society.

The term also includes cultural impacts involving changes to the norms, values, and

beliefs that guide and rationalize their cognition of themselves and their society (Burdge

et al.2003).
34

2.16. Electrical Demand Analysis

Demand forecasting, can be described as the science and art of specification, estimation,

testing and evaluation of models of economic processes’ that drive the demand for fuels.

For the power evaluation knowledge of power requirement of nearby populations are

necessary. The following factors are considered during the electrical load survey of

nearby villages up to 4 to 10 km distance from the location of proposed SHP station

(Singh, 2006): Number of villages; No. of houses; Population; No. of projected

connections; Average energy consumptions; Demand for street lighting; No. of

commercial establishment and energy demand for each establishment; No. of schools,

health centers and other community services and their energy demand; No. of small

industries with energy requirement for each; Miscellaneous demand; and Current and

projected demand for electrical energy of various types of consumption

According to (Mehra, 2001), rural electricity demand can be estimated by using the
following methods: trend method, end use method (field survey), and econometric
approach method.

2.16.1 Trend analysis

Trend analysis extends past rates of electricity demand in to the future. Trend analysis

focuses on past changes or movements in electricity demand and uses them to predict

future changes in electricity demand (Ghods and Kalantar, 2008).

12.16.2 End use approach method

The end-use approach directly estimates energy consumption by using extensive

information on end users, such as applications, the customer use, their age, sizes of
35

houses, and so on. Statistical information about customers along with dynamics of

change is the basis for the forecast. The end –use models for electricity demand focus on

its various uses in the residential, commercial, agriculture and industrial sectors of

economy. The following relation defines the end use methodology for a sector :(

Equation 07)

E = S x N x P x H…………………………………………………………….. (07)

E = energy consumption of an appliance in kWh

S = penetration level in terms of number of such appliances per customer

N = number of customers

P = power required by the appliance in kW

H = hours of appliance use (Mehra, 2001).

This, when summed over different end-uses in a sector, gives the aggregate energy

demand.

2.16.3 Econometric approach method

The econometric approach combines economic theory and statistical techniques for

forecasting electricity demand. The approach estimates the relationship between energy

consumption (dependent variables) and factors influencing consumption. The

relationships are estimated by the least square method or time series methods. The

following relation defines econometric approach (Equation 08)

ED = f (Y, Pi, Pj, POP, T)……………………………………………………. (08)

Where,
36

ED = electricity demand; Y = output or income; Pi = own price;

Pj = price of related fuels; POP = population; and T = technology;

2.16.4 Load and Energy Forecast

A 25 years load forecast is the recommended planning period by TANESCO for areas to

be supplied through grid extension, owing to the time lag for house wiring and extension

of service lines to customers, the anticipated load cannot be reached in the 1st year.

Future annual peak demand and energy is estimated using historical growth rates used

for similar electrified areas as follows;

• In the first four years after commissioning of the project, load will be expected to
grow by 25% annually to the initial full load.
• From the fifth year onwards, the loads for each tariff category will grow
according to the following rates:
4% for the residential consumers
3% for commercial consumers
2% for light industrial and
2% for public lighting
These are measures of divergence of spreading over time of the peak loads. Three

diversity factors namely, unit diversity factor (g1), Group diversity factor (g2) and

overall diversity factor (g3)

Diversity factors-These permits computation of combined peak loads of individual,

group and combination of group in terms of disaggregate peak values. For each type of

consumer, two type of diversity are applied to the maximum installed load in order to

obtain maximum demand


37

Unity diversity factors (g1)-This is applied to the maximum installed load of unit (e.g.

one medium size residential house) on account of the fact that not all the loads in a unit

shall be operational at any one instant. This is ranged from 0.25 to 0.8 depending on the

nature of the consumer.

Group diversity factor (g2) -This is applied to the total maximum installed loads for a

given type on account of the fact that not all the units within a load type would be

simultaneously in operation this ranges between 0.6 to 1

The overall diversity factor (g3)- This was applied on account of the fact that not all the

consumers in a particular category shall be simultaneously connected the values of 0.5

taken for this factor.

TANESCO’S standard values of diversified unit load and group diversity factor for

classified loads are summarized as is appendix A.

2.17 Economical Appraisal

Economic analysis is a comparison of costs and benefits that enables the

investor/investors to make an informed choice whether to develop the project or

abandon it. It is also possible that a choice may be made between different hydro

projects so that the investment can be made in the one that gives the best return (ESHA,

2004). Hydro power projects can be considered as a tool for economic development, due

to its longevity, favorable energy payback periods, their pivoted role in integrated

energy systems and their multi-purpose character. Economic aspects which are

considered in sustainable hydro power plants are: Distribution and sharing of benefits,
38

Demonstrated need, Cost-benefit and economic performance, Longevity of benefit,

Local capacity building and Resource use.

2.18. RET Screen Model

RET Screen is a computer model developed by the Government of Canada, Department

of Natural Resources and available freely over the internet at www.retscreen.net. The

model is available in several languages. The purpose of the model is to evaluate the

following: Energy production, life cycle cost and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission

reductions. Currently, the software can be used to evaluate eight technologies which are:

small hydro, wind energy Photovoltaic, solar air heating, biomass heating, solar water

heating, passive solar heating and ground-source heat pumps.

2.18.1 RET Screen Small Hydro Project Module

The RETScreen small hydro project module provides a means to assess the available

energy at a potential small hydro site that could be provided to a central grid or, for

isolated loads, the portion of this available energy that could be harnessed by a local

electricity utility. Seven worksheets: Energy Model, Hydrology Analysis & Load

Calculation, Equipment Data, Cost Analysis, Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction

Analysis, Financial Summary, and Sensitivity & Risk Analysis are provided in the small

hydro project workbook file. The Energy Model, Hydrology & Load and Equipment

Data worksheets are completed first. The Cost Analysis worksheet should then be

completed, followed by the Financial Summary worksheet. The GHG Analysis and
39

Sensitivity worksheets are optional analyses. Various algorithms are used to calculate,

on an annual basis, the energy production of small hydro power plants in RETScreen.

User inputs include the flow-duration curve and, for isolated-grids, the load-duration

curve. Turbine efficiency is calculated at regular intervals on the flow-duration curve.

Plant capacity is then calculated and the power-duration curve is established. Available

energy is simply calculated by integrating the power-duration curve. In the case of a

central-grid, the energy delivered is equal to the energy available. In the case of an

isolated-grid, the procedure is slightly more complicated and involves both the power-

duration curve and the load-duration curve.

2.18. 3 Benefit of RET Screen Small Hydro Project Model

The principal benefit of RETScreen model is that it requires a relatively small amount of

input data to run annual or monthly data compared to hourly data for competing

simulation models.

2.18.4 Limitation of RET Screen Small Hydro Project Model

There are some limitations associated with the Small Hydro Project Model. First, the

model has been designed primarily to evaluate run-of-river small hydro projects. The

evaluation of storage projects is possible; however, a number of assumptions are

required. Variations in gross head due to changes in reservoir water level cannot be

simulated. The model requires a single value for gross head and, in the case of reservoir

projects; an appropriate average value must be entered. The determination of the average

head must be done outside of the model and will require an understanding of the effects
40

of variations in head on annual energy production. Alternatively simulations can be

made using maximum and minimum head values. Second, for isolated-grid and off-grid

applications in isolated areas, the energy demand has been assumed to follow the same

pattern for every day of the year.


41

CHAPTER THREE

METHODS AND MATERIALS


The methodology adapted in this study entailed the following activities: Data collection

(primary and secondary data); data analysis etc.

3.1. Data Collection

Design of a hydropower scheme requires the collection of a substantial data base. Data

required may be classified into the following categories: Hydrology, Sediments, Power

market survey, Topographic survey, Geology, Constructional material and socio-

economic survey.

3.1.1 Preliminary Studies

Collection and review of all available and pertinent documents. Air photo or GIS

interpretation was employed to assess site features. Collection of secondary data on

various aspects including geography and demographic characteristics, renewable energy

technology was done through visiting Ministry of land and Human Settlement, Ministry

of water and Irrigation , Tanzania metrological Agency , National website and local

government (extension office). The secondary data were collected through a review of

published and unpublished literature. The review was also done in books, journal,

articles, research reports, thesis reports both for PhD and Masters, conference

proceedings and electronic materials.

3.1.2 Reconnaissance Survey

The purpose of a site reconnaissance visit is to gain an understanding of site

characteristics, potential problems as well as solutions, and input to the site selection of
42

the main project structures. The site visit provides an opportunity to obtain an

appreciation of site topography, flow regime, geology and access for roads and

transmission lines. From these on-site observations it is often possible to identify

practical locations for temporary facilities, head-works, desilting tank and power house

and then to decide the side of the river best suited routes.

3.1.3 Detail Site Investigations

Detail site investigation comprises the following activities: topographic survey,

geotechnical investigation and constructional material search.

3.1.4 Primary data and secondary data


Both primary and secondary data were gathered. Primary data were collected from the

field these are hydrologic data, topographical data and geological data, while secondary

data collected from existing information available in reports and documents to

supplement field data.

3.2 Preliminary Electricity Demand Assessment

In estimating preliminary electrical energy demand end use method or field survey was

used. A questionnaire which consists of a list of more or less sophisticated questions

that are put to existing potential consumers was provided and filled. All various type of

potential consumers at Kilondo Village was determined through physical counting and

categorized as domestic consumers (small, medium and large), commercial consumers

(shops, hotels, etc), light industries and others. Estimates for the number of domestic

consumers in the study area are based on the number of permanent houses which satisfy

the utility (TANESCO) standards for electrification. Further, the quality and size of the
43

house was taken into account to enable grouping into small, medium and large

categories.

3.3 Identify potential hydro power sites.

Adequate head and flow are necessary requirements for hydro power generation.

Consequently these parameters are important factors in site selection. The gross head may

be estimated, either by field surveying or by using a GPS (Global Positioning System) or by

orthophotographic techniques (ESHA, 2004). However Spatial Data were used for

identifying the potential sites. The data under this category include; the Arcview GIS

DEM of the Kilondo catchment. Also the land cover/land use and soil maps of the area

were used to determine the area and hydrologic parameters suitable for hydropower

installation.

3.4 Estimate stream flow of the River.

Measured hydrological flow data or stream gauging information located on the Kilondo

catchment should be utilised. A minimum of 1 year daily flow data is required to make a

preliminary assessment. Since Kilondo site is ungauged its hydrological data does not

exist, flow and rainfall information data for an adjacent (or similar) catchment maybe

used, and adjusted for catchment area and average rainfall level. Given the similar nature

of the topography, mean annual rainfall and catchment areas it would be expected that

the flow duration curves for these catchments would be similar. This provides some

uncertainty in the results, but will be sufficiently accurate for the purpose of a pre-

feasibility assessment.Time series data was used for estimating the stream flow of
44

Kilondo River. The data under this category include monthly data of rainfall, flow.

Rainfall data are used to control the water balance for hydrological modeling. This study

use data recorded between years 1976 through 1985 from Labial gauging station. The

data was collected from the Ministry of Water and irrigation and Tanzania Metrological

Agency. These include, year, month, rainfall and mean annual rainfall. Besides, the

author measured manually the stream flow by using a floating body method, and the

discharge obtained were compared to the data obtained from the ministry in May 2010.

3.5 Hydrological Modeling

Confirmation of accurate hydrology and detailed modeling was made to confirm the

flow duration curve by using RETScreen software. A long-term record of flow data and

rainfall, together with an estimation of the compensation/environmental flow (if

required) was assessed. Assessment of seasonal variation and peak and off-peak

demands need to be considered. A firm capacity of the scheme was determined, based

upon the 90th percentile flow from flow duration curve.

3.6 Environmental impact assessment

Checklist method was used to annotate the environmental features of factors that need to

be addressed when identifying the impacts of small hydropower plant. There are a

number of environmental considerations that need to be investigated as part of the

feasibility study. These includes reviews and assessments of likely environmental

impacts, broadly considering factors such as: assessment of any planning legislation and

policies for the area, requirements for clearing native vegetation, Impacts on stream flow
45

and fish migration, Inundation or river barrier issues, operational impacts and

construction impacts.

3.7 Social Impact Assessment

Based on the stratified simple random sampling technique, some households were

selected for collecting primary data on several household-level parameters through door-

to-door survey of households. Stratification of village on the basis of suburb will be

carried out to collect data from each stratum through a semi-structured questionnaire.

Various sets of information on socio-economic, demographic and housing characteristics

were asked. Questionnaire developed on the basis of the potential for resettlement and

relocation, inundation of arable land, public safety, inundation of sacred sites/areas of

cultural or historical value, and stakeholder management All the primary data was

coded, double entry was made for data cleaning and validation for further analysis

through SPSS.

3.8 .Preliminary Design of Small Hydro power Plant

The design of the scheme should be completed at a level adequate for costing and a bill

of quantities to be determined. Hence, the design should be adequate for tendering

purposes, and would include general arrangement and layout drawings. Prominent

aspects of the works can be categorized into: Design flow rate and gross head;

Preliminary sizing of Civil works (intake and weir, intake channel, penstock;

powerhouse, tailrace channel, site access, construction details and hydraulic losses);

Net head on turbine ; Turbine selection ; Installed capacity ;Key specifications of


46

electromechanical equipment (turbine, generator, and control system); Network

connection design to allow assessment of the local power distribution and

the community demand requirements and ; and Gross annual or monthly generation,

losses, and net sales to the grid.

3.9 Economic analysis

The economic analysis focuses on social costs and benefits of the proposed project or

investment for the larger social point of view.

A financial analysis will allow the economic viability of the project to be assessed. The

analysis must consider the following parameters as part of its economic modeling: Base

cost estimate; Revenue assessment – the value of energy based upon market analysis or

demand capability. Include seasonal variation and peak/off-peak pricing; Financing

strategy; Cash flow analysis and implementation schedule; and Economic life.

The economic viability was presented by means of the unit cost of energy (Tsh/kWh),

net present value and the internal rate of return. Small hydro costs can be split into four

segments: Machinery, Civil Works, Electrical Works, and External Costs (BILA, 2005).

Machinery cost includes the turbine, gearbox or drive belts, generator and the water inlet

control valve. Civil Works includes the intake, forebay tank and screen, the pipeline or

channel to carry the water to the turbine, the turbine house and machinery foundations,

and the tailrace channel to return the water to the river. The electrical system will

involve the control panel and control system, the wiring within the turbine house, and a

transformer if required, plus the cost of connection to the electricity. These costs are

largely dependent on the maximum power output of the installation. The connection cost
47

is set by the local electricity distribution company. External Costs encompass the

engineering services of a professional to design and manage the installation, plus the

costs of obtaining the licenses, planning permission, etc.


48

CHAPTER FOUR

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS


4.1 Data Collection

In this research study the following data were collected: Topographical maps, Rainfall

data, Hydrological data, market survey, Socio-economic information and Environmental

impact data.

4.1.1 Rainfall Data

The use of rainfall data is essential and fundamental to the rainfall-runoff process. The

accuracy of the rainfall data at a point (i.e., at the rain gauge) is extremely significant to

all the remaining use of the dat. Daily rainfall records have been obtained from the

Tanzania Meteorology Agency and the Ministry of Water and Irrigation.

4.1.2 Hydrologic Data

This was collected from the Ministry of Water and Irrigation only hydrological data

for gauged catchments were obtained but for ungauged catchment the empirical method

was used to obtain the data. Kilondo catchment is ungauged, data from Lumbira river

Station, (Long, 9'35''0'''s lat, 34'9'0'' E) (IRC13) were used which is near Kilondo and

they have similar hydrological characteristics. Table 3 shows the mean monthly flow for

Labial River from 1976-1985 as collected from the Ministry of Water and Irrigation.
49

Table 3: Mean Monthly Flow ( m3/s) for Lumbira River from (1976-1985)
Year Jan Feb Mar April May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
1976 38.2 40.7 60.2 87.93 50.6 36.2 29.8 28.4 21.77 19.0 16.6 17.1
1977 24.4 16.2 21.1 40.9 45.4 30.7 27.3 22.9 19.3 17.1 21.5 31.5
1978 56.6 50.6 81.8 58.2 42.1 33.5 29.6 26.0 22.7 19.7 24.3 32.2
1979 40.9 81.4 99.8 117.2 164.9 38.8 29.8 m m m 17.6 25.9
1980 41.1 33.6 41.9 82.5 45.1 28.4 22.8 19.9 17.7 14.6 14.5 24
1981 35.1 51.4 46.4 37.5 41.9 27 21.7 19.0 15.2 13.3 14.7 31.6
1982 29.1 33.6 35.8 52.4 71.9 52.7 45.5 42.9 38.6 34.9 32.4 40.4
1983 43.5 36.7 52.7 65.9 47.6 41.4 36.9 37.9 40.7 37.1 26.6 36.3
1984 67.7 73.2 77.6 62.9 54.8 57.1 56.7 61.3 57.8 51.6 60.3 m
1985 59.1 71.8 92.6 70.5 108.2 80.6 61.8 51.9 42.2 42.9 31.1 66.1

Note: ‘m’ stands for missing data

4.1.3 Drainage area

Drainage area for gauged site, Lumbira Catchment was obtained from the given data

from the Ministry of Water and Irrigation, Station Lumbira,( Long, 9'35''0'''s lat, 34'9'0''

E) (IRC13) is 1414 km2

4.1.4 Stream velocity

Stream velocity was measured by using floating body method. Measurement was taken

at the place where the axis of the streambed is straight and has constant cross section

area. An orange was tossed from the upstream of the river and the time used to travel the

floating distance was recorded. This sequence was repeated several times at four

different locations from the edge of the river, and average time was obtained, hence

average velocity was cat different location was calculated. Table 4 shows velocity of

stream at various positions.


50

Table 4: Stream Velocities at Different Locations as sampled on May 2010

Location Depth Velocity 1 Velocity 2 Velocity 3


(meters from edge) (m) (m/s) (m/s) (m/s)
4 1.34 0.831 0.841 0.862
8 1.36 0.955 0.986 0.96
12 1.75 1.041 1.046 1.02
16 1.68 0.887 0.91 0.95
Average Velocity 0.928 0.945 0.948
Mean average 0.94m/s

Therefore mean average stream velocity is 0.94 m/s

4.1.5 Cross sectional area of the Kilondo River

Measurement of stream flow was made at the place where the axis of streambed is

straight and the cross section of the river is almost uniform. The width of the river was

measured by using a measuring (100m) tape. At this place a width of the river was

approximately 20 meters. Since Kilondo River is very wide a boat was used to assist in

taking measurement as platform (Figure 15).


51

(a) Measuring width of River (b) Recording time of flow for floating body

On 22 May 2010 On 22 May 2010

(c)Measuring length of course of (d) Kilondo River with constant cross section

Stream reach.

Figure 15: Measuring stream velocity and cross sectional area of Kilondo River.
Source: Author (2010)

Cross section area of the stream was measured by first determining the average depth at

the site as explained in Fig. 13. The sum of depth measurements was determined and it

was divided by the number of depth measurements (intervals) made. Average depth (m)

was calculated. Average depth was multiplied by the stream width to get the cross
52

sectional. Figure 13 shows how to calculate the cross section area of a stream using the

following equation

 h + .......h 
S= b  ……………………………………………………………………..(09)
 n 

 1.34 + 1.36 + 1.75 + 1.68 


S= 20 
 4 

S = 30.65 m2

The cross sectional flow area of the Kilondo stream calculated was 30.65 m2

4.1.6 Stream Discharge of Kilondo River

Stream flow was calculated using the following formula

Stream Discharge (m3/s) = Average Depth x Width x Average Velocity

Stream Discharge (m3/s) = Cross sectional area x mean average velocity

Stream Discharge (m3/s) = 30.65x 0.94

= 28.821 m3/s

4.1.7 Environmental and Social Impact assessment

Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) of Kilondo Hydro power plant project was

done using Rapid Impact Assessment Matrix (RIMA). The results are shown in the

Appendix J of this dissertation report. Social impact analysis was done by survey

method of Kilondo households. Questionnaire was used to collect data for some selected

families. A sample questionnaire is shown in Appendix C and some results of the

outcomes are shown in Appendix I of this dissertation report.


53

4.1.8 Number of identified consumers in Kilondo Village

A total number of 348 consumers were identified at Kilondo village which are; small

house 330 consumers, light commercial 14, light industry 2 and other social services 2

(Appendix D).

4.2 Data Analysis

4.2.1 Introduction

For estimating stream flows in m3/s a nearby station IRC13 at Lumbira village was used.

Its data for the period from 1976 to 1985 were collected from the Ministry of Water and

Irrigation. These data were used for estimating nearby flows of the Kilondo River which

is ungauged using ratio of area method. Daily rainfall data were obtained from the

Tanzania Meteorological Agency (TMA), while the social and environmental impact

data were obtained at Kilondo village through the questionnaire and interview. Arc view

GIS software was used to delineate the study area and calculating catchment area.

4.2.2 Data preparation

The data collected from 1976 to 1985 for daily flows: The following procedures were

used to prepare data for the analysis. Missing daily discharge data were filled using the

daily seasonal mean values .These were obtained from the daily discharge time series by

getting the average for a particular day in a particular month in all the years available,

Average rainfall over the catchment was obtained by using the Arithmetic method,

where the average for a particular day in a month was obtained by averaging values for

that day in the time series from all the rain stations in the catchment.
54

4.2.3 Mean Annual Flow for gauged site

The mean annual flow is calculated from the data (1976 – 1985) of flows of Lumbira

(Gauged site) see Table 5 as follows;

The mean monthly flows = ∑ (Mean Daily Flow for each day)…………………(10)
Number of Days in a month

Mean annual flow for each year (MAF) = ∑ (Mean Monthly Flows for each year)….(11)
12
Mean annual flow for all the year = ∑ (Mean annual flows for each year)…………..(12)
10 years
Table 5: Mean annual flow (m3/s) for Lumbira River for the period 1976 to 1985

Year Jan Feb Mar April May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Mean
1976 38.2 40.7 60.2 87.93 50.6 36.2 29.8 28.4 21.77 19.0 16.6 17.1 37.2
1977 24 16 21 40 45 30 27 22 19 17 21 31 26.5
1978 56 50 81 58 42 33 29 26 22 19 24 32 39
1979 40 81 99 117 164 38 29 34 30. 27 17 25 59.0
1980 41. 33. 41. 82 45 28.4 22.8 19.9 17.7 14.6 14.5 24 32.1
1981 35.1 51.4 46.4 37.5 41.9 27 21.7 19.0 15.2 13.3 14.7 31.6 29.5
1982 29.1 33.6 35.8 52.4 71.9 52.7 45.5 42.9 38.6 34.9 32.4 40.4 42.5
1983 43.5 36.7 52.7 65.9 47.6 41.4 36.9 37.9 40.7 37.1 26.6 36.3 41.9
1984 67.7 73.2 77.6 62.9 54.8 57.1 56.7 61.3 57.8 51.6 60.3 33 59.5
1985 59. 71.8 92.6 70.5 108.2 80.6 61.8 51.9 42.2 42.9 31.1 66.1 64.9
AVg 43. 48 60.9 67.6 67.25 42.6 36.2 34.4 30.66 27.8 25.9 33.9

Mean Annual flow(m3/s) 43.3

Hence, The Mean Annual Flows for gauged site is 43.32m3/s

4.3 Flow-duration curve for gauged catchment

Flow-Duration Curve of a stream is a graphical plot of stream discharge against the

corresponding percentage of time that the stream discharge was equaled or exceeded.

Preparing a flow-duration curve. In preparing flow duration curve, stream flow data was

arranged in a descending order of stream discharges. As the number of discharges is


55

very large, a range of values as class intervals was established from the available daily

flows data, from the year 1976 to 1985. The obtained class intervals are shown bellow

(Table 6). The plotting position was calculated from Weibull plotting relationship and

the results were plotted on a sheet of logarithmic probability paper Percentage

probability, Pp, of any flow magnitude, Q being equaled or exceeded is given as

* 100(% )………………………………………………………………….(13)
M
Pp =
N +1

m = the order number of the discharge (or class interval)

N = the number of data points in the list

Table 6: Daily mean discharge and percentage probability

Daily Mean Number of Days the flow in the stream belonged to the

of
columns 2..11
Discharge class Interval

(1976-1985)

Cumulative
Total ( m)
( m3 /s)

Pp (%)
Total

76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
219.99-200 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 7 0.19
199.99-180 0 0 0 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 20 0.55
179.99-160 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 28 0.77
159.99-140 5 0 0 4 0 0 1 0 0 0 10 38 1.04
139.99-120 2 0 0 5 0 0 1 1 0 0 9 47 1.29
119.99-100 4 0 5 19 1 0 0 0 1 41 71 118 3.23
99.99-80 3 0 9 24 12 1 2 2 16 51 120 238 6.51
79.99-60 19 5 48 16 32 7 24 26 140 96 413 651 17.82
59.99-40 88 28 67 36 25 64 160 150 173 148 939 1590 43.5
39.99-20 152 232 211 113 180 178 157 186 31 26 1466 3056 83.6
19.99-00 93 100 25 120 116 115 20 0 5 3 597 3653 99.9
366 365 365 365 366 365 365 365 366 365 N=3653

By using Table 6 FDC of Lumbila gauging station is drawn in the Figure 16.
56

Figure 16: Flows – Duration Curve for Gauged Catchment, Lumbira

Figure17 : Lumbira Catchment delineated using Arcview GIS


57

4.4 Estimating mean annual flow for ungauged catchment

Drainage area at the ungauged river catchment


The drainage area for the ungauged was obtained using Arc view GIS 3.2a computer

software (Fig. 18). Digital elevation Model (DEM) of Tanzania was used to delineate

the required area. Catchment Area of 1512 km2 was delineated.

The Ratio of area method was used to find the mean annual flow (MAF) for the

ungauged catchment area using the following relation

MAFungaged = MAFgaged x Aungaged …………………………………………….(14)


Gauged
The MAF is 1.069
58

Figure 18: Kilondo Catchment Area delineated using GIS

4.5 Correlation Analysis

In this method, it is assumed that gauged points and ungauged points are correlated and

the river flow changes have linear relationships with hydrological parameters of the

water in order to prove the relationship. The correlation analysis was carried out for the

given values of Average monthly flows (m3/s) for Lumbira and Rainfall (mm) for
59

Kilondo Village. Table 7 shows average flows for the two sites, respectively and average

rainfall

3
Table 7: Average Flows ( m /s) and Rainfall (mm) Data from 1976 – 1980
Months Average Flows (m3/s) Average Rainfall (mm)

43.6
Jan 120.32
Feb 48.9 125.84
March 60.9 166
Apr 67.9 175.3
May 67.25 150.32
Jun 42.6 114.7
Jul 36.2 18.19
Aug 34.4 2.68
Sept 30.66 2.65
Oct 27.8 1.86
Nov 25.9 89.02
Dec 33.9 114.31

Karl Parsons Coefficient of Correlation, (r) was computed using equqtion 15

r=
∑ xy
(∑ x )(∑ y )
2 2

……………………………………………………………………(15)

Where x represents monthly average flows for Lumbila river and y represent monthly

rainfall data for Kilondo. Values of r lying between +1 and -1, where +1 indicates

perfect direct correlation,-1 indicates perfect inverse correlation and 0 indicates that no

correlation exists between these values. Generally, a value of r ranges from 0.7 to 1 and -
60

0.7 to -1 show that a fair amount of correlation exists. The Table 8 below shows how

Correlation Analysis was done Average flows for Lumbira( gauged site ) ( m3/s) and

Rainfall (mm) data for Kilondo ( ungauged site ) from 1976 – 1980 .From the Table 7

the value ( r )= 0.9195 that has Mean Monthly flows for Lumbira (gauged site for 1976-

1985) ) ( m3/s),( x ) is highly correlated with respect to Monthly Rainfall (mm) data for

Kilondo ( ungauged site for 1976-1980), ( y).

Table 8: Calculation of Karl Pearson’s coefficient of correlation (r)

X Y X2 Y2 X*Y
43.6 120.3 1900.9 14476.9 5245.9
48.9 125.8 2391.2 15835.7 6153.6
60.9 166 3708.8 27556 10109.4
67.9 175.3 4610.4 30730 11902.8
67.3 150.3 4522.5 22596.1 10109
42.6 114.7 1814.8 13156. 4886
36.2 18.2 1310.4 330.8761 658.4
34.4 2.7 1183.4 7.1824 92.1
30.6 2.7 940 7.0225 81.2
27.8 1.9 772.8 3.4596 51.7
25.9 89 670.8 7924.5 2305.6
33.9 114.3 1149.2 13066.7 3875.1
∑ 24975.4 145690.7 55471.3
r 0.919595319

4.6 Estimating a flow-duration curve for ungauged catchment

A flow duration curve for ungauged catchment is estimated by using a curve derived for

a gauged site along the same stream or in a neighbouring catchment. A flow of Kilondo

River was obtained by multiplying the ratio of two catchments and flow of gauged

catchment which is Lumbira (Equation 14).Therefore, multiplying the ordinates-vertical

scale representing flow – of the flow-duration curve for the gauged site by the ratio of
61

the mean annual flow at the ungauged site to that at the gauged site. Table 9 was used in

plotting the Flow Duration Curve for ungauged catchment which is shown in Figure 19

Table 9: Calculation for the flows (m3/s) of ungauged catchment


Qungauged= Qgauged x MAFungauged
S/N Pp(%) Ordinates of flows for gauged site MAFgauged
vertically (Qgauged)
1 0.19
209.995 224.547
2 0.55
189.995 203.1616
3 0.77
169.995 181.775
4 1.04
149.995 160.389
5 1.29
129.995 139.00
6 3.23
109.995 117.6176
7 6.51
89.995 96.231
8 17.82
69.995 74.845
9 43.5
49.995 53.459
10 83.6
29.995 32.0736
11 99.9
9.995 10.6876
62

Figure 19: Flow Duration Curve for ungauged Kilondo catcment

From the graph;

The minimum flow of water is 10.6976 m3/s

Discharge at 20% Percentage time, Q20% =70 m3/s

Discharge at 80% Percentage time, Q80% = 34 m3/s

Discharge at 95% Percentage time, Q95% = 19m3/s

4.7 Identification of potential micro hydropower plant site

This process was done by using the topographical map which was collected from the

Ministry of Lands and Settlement Development. Elevation – distance graph, this was

drawn using the software called Arc View GIS, which extracted the table from the

selected points and obtained their elevations and distances,

Then profile of Kilondo River was drawn by using Microsoft Excel work sheet. A graph

of elevation against distance is drawn and shown in Figure 20 below.


63

Kilondo River

Waterfall

Outlet

Figure 20 :The profile of Kilondo River showing elevation against distance from the
outlet(Nyasa Lake shoreline)

From the graph above (Figure 20) the profile of the river, the distance and elevation of

the two points indicated on the graph are for Red arrow(900m,530m) and Green arrow

(1475 m, 650 m).

Hence the difference in the elevation = 650 m – 530 m = 120 m

The difference in elevation of the point is equal to gross head of 120 m


64

Figure 21: Kilondo River water falls located at (S 9° 44.23”, E 34° 18.93”)
Source: Author (2010)

4.8 Head Measurement

The elevation of the downstream and upstream was recorded and the difference gave the

required gross head (H). Let the downstream elevation be HD (m), Upstream elevation

be HU (m), and Gross Head be H (m) .From the survey: HU = 506.9 m, HD = 623.9 m, H =

HU – HD = 623.9 – 506.9 Head (H) = 117m

4.9 Determining Power Potential

Power potential is obtained from Equation (01). Designed flow selected is Qo= 19m3/s

m3/s which is 95% Percentage time flow of water obtained from Flow duration curve of

ungauged catchment and using a measured head of 117m power potential of the Kilondo

river is obtained from

P (kW) = Q (m3/s) ×H (m)


65

The best turbines can have hydraulic efficiencies in the range 80% to over 90% (higher

than all other prime movers), although this will reduce with size. If we take 70 % ( as a

typical water-to-wire efficiency for the whole system (BILA, 2005) then the above

equation simplifies to:

P = 7 x 19 x 117

P = 15561 kW

Power = 15.561 MW

Energy output for 25 years

Energy = 15561 x 8760 x 25 = 3407859000KWh

= 3407859 MWh

Figure : 22 Load Duration Curve For Kilondo River


66

4.10 Determination of load and energy demand for Kilondo village

Demand forecast for Kilondo Village for 25 years was determined using the following

equation.

TD = D (kW) x (1+γ) x n = D (1+n) n ………………………………………………. (16)

TD – Total load after n years; D – Load in kW; γ – Annual load growth rate; and

n – Number of years

Table 10 below shows different classification of loads at Kilondo village. Total load

demand after 25 years is expected to be 9819.765 kW. Demand for electricity at Kilondo

village will be increasing linearly.

Table 10: Peak load (kW) for 25 years for γ = 0.25


Period Classified load γ n Load (kW) (1+γ) Total
(years) Load (kW)
1-4 Residential customers 4 0.25 39.6 1.25 198
Light commercial 4 0.25 16.7 1.25 83.5
Other social services 4 0.25 0.4 1.25 2
Light industry 4 0.25 30 1.25 150

Total load after 4 years 433.5

for γ = 0.04 ,0.03 and 0.02


5-25 Residential customers 21 0.04 198 1.04 4324.32
Light commercial 21 0.03 83.5 1.03 1806.105
Other social services 21 0.02 2 1.02 42.84
Light industry 21 0.02 150 1.02 3213

Total load after 25 years 9819.765


67

Energy demand (MWh) for 25 years


NB: 1 year is 8760 hours

TE = D x n x 8760 hours per year [kWh]; TE = Total energy demand after n years;

n = Number of years; and D = load (kW)

4.11 Selection of Turbine

Turbine is selected based on the output power of the turbine and available head for the

site. From figure 11 the type of turbine which is suitable for this plant is Francis turbine.

Where Head (h) = 117m and Power =15561 kW.

4.11.1Determination of specific speed of the turbine, n (rpm)


Specific speed,

-0.625
Ns = 3470Hn
= 3470*117-0.625
=176.8940 ≈ 177 for Francis turbine accepted range is 50 – 350
Ns = 177

Rotational speed, N
From the formula of specific speed which is
N P
Ns = ……………….…………………………………………………………(17)
H 1.25
Where N is turbine rotational speed (rpm), P is rated power (kW) and H head (m).

From above Turbine rotational speed N will be given by

H 1.25 * N S
N=
P 0.5
N= 177*1171.25
155610.5
68

N=545.992 rpm

4.11.2 No. of poles, p


120 * 50
p= …………………………………………………………………………(18)
N (rpm)
120 * 50
p=
546
P = 10.989 ≈ 12 poles or 6 2 pole pair
120 * 50
Adjusted speed, N = = 500 rpm
12
4.11.3 Check of Cavitations

In order to have a sound operation of turbine it should be insured that cavitation would not occur

on turbine blades. Cavitations should be kept in a certain range, which will not cause erosion or

pitting. The limit is defined through the dimensionless term called Thoma’s coefficient as

follows:

σ =
…………………………………………………………(19)

Where; hb = Barometric head; hw = Vapour pressure head; and hs = static head (height

of the turbine above the discharge level)

But for tropical regions hb and hw can be considered as constants and equal to 10.3m and

0.237m respectively.

Therefore;

σ = 10.3 − 0.237 − hS
117

For Francis turbine cavitation factor is sc = 0.625 (Ns/444)2


69

= 0.09932

Substitute into above equation 11.62044 = 10.063 - hS

hs = 1.55744

Net Positive Suction Head (NPSH) = hb-hw-hs = 10.3-0.237-1.55744 = 8.50556


=8.50556 >>0
Since NPSH >>0 then no cavitations
Therefore the Center Line (CL) of the turbine runner is below the maximum discharge
water level by 1.55744m

Figure 23: Cross section of Francis runner


HN
D3= 84.5(0.31 +2.488.ηQE) (ESHA,2004)……………………………………(20)
60 * N
D3= 84.5(0.31+2.488. ηQE) x 1170.5/60*500
D3 = 84.5(0.31+2.488. ηQE) x 0.000360555
N Q
ηQE =
E 0.75
E = gH =specific hydraulic energy of machine = 9.81*117 = 1147.77 J/kg

Q = Designed flow, N = Rotational speed,

ηQE = 500 x 190.5/1147.770.75 = 11.05237


70

D3 = 84.5(0.31+2.488. 11.052)*0.000360555

D3 = 0.847 m

The inlet diameter D is given by the following equation


1

0.095
D2 = (0.4 + )*D3…………………………………………………………………….(21)
η QE

D2 = (0.4 + 0.00859) x 0.847

D2 = 0.346 m

D3
D1 = …………………………………………………………….(22)
0.96 + 0.3781 *η QE

D1 = 0.847/0.96+0.3781 x 11.05237 = 0.164 m

4.12 Design of Civil Structure

Based on the survey results, the preliminary design was accomplished at prefeasibility

level to determine the main specifications of the facilities and equipment.

Height of Flood Barrier Walls

Height of intake barrier walls, Hb is the height to which water is likely to rise in the

worst flood condition Figure 24.


71

Upstream river
surface
H Over-
Wh
h Top
h
h
h
h
Hb

Down
d H stream
h river surface

Figure 24: Intake and Weir

The characteristic discharge of the weir is given by equation 23

3
Q= C * L * H 2 ………………………………………………………………………(23)

Where Q= QR river discharge (m3/s), Cd= Coefficient of discharge for the weir, HOT=

head-overtop of weir (m), L= LW length of weir (m).


72

Let length of the weir (LW ) is the same as the width of the River which is 20m. Mean

discharge of Kilondo River is 43.32m3/s and coefficient of discharge of the weir Cd is

0.494. Substituting these into the equation (23) to find head over top of weir (HOT)

2
 QR  3
HOT=   ……………………………………………………………………... (24)
 C * LW 

HOT = (43.32/0.494*20)2/3 = 2.67 m.

Height of weir hweir is 1m, so the height of flood barrier wall will be given by

Height of barrier/wing Hb= HOT+ hweir = 2.67+1= 3.67m

Intake dimension

The intake behaves according discharge equation;

Q = AiVi = AiCd 2 g (h − H ) ………………………………………….…………..(25)


r h

Where

Q = discharge through the intake; Vi= velocity of water passing through intake m/s; Cd =

coefficient of discharge of intake orifice (0.6<Cd<0.8); Ai = cross sectional area of

intake, Hr= depth of water in river channel in m; hh = depth of water in head race in m.

The intake dimensions are determined under two conditions; normal condition when

there is no flood and under flood conditions.


73

Normal condition

Under this condition Hh = d, the depth of intake opening hr is computed from equation

(25)

hweir is assumed and set to 1 m during normal conditions HOT = 0

hr (normal) = hw + HOT = 1.0 m

from equation (26)

Vi = Cd 2 g (hr − H h ) .................................................................................................. (26)


This velocity is assumed to be 2<Vi<4 m/s . Assuming a velocity of 3m/s and coefficient

of discharge of an intake of 0.7 substituting into equation (26) height of intake (Hh) is

obtained.

3=0.75 x (2 x 9.81 x (1-Hh))1/2

Hh = 0.796 ~0.8m

From Qgross = AiVi = d*W*Vi....................................................................................... (27)

Where Qgross= Qd(design flow) = 19m3/s, d=depth of intake opening which is calculated

above as 0.8m, Vi= velocity of intake assumed to be 3m/s we can calculate the width of

an intake by using equation (28)

Q gross
W= …………………………………………………………………………… (28)
d * Vi

W = 19/0.8 x 3 = 7.9 m

Headrace slope and width (normal flow condition)

Velocity of Vh = 2m/s is considered good practice and chosen as a first assumption. This

is the maximum allowable velocity for concrete beyond which channel erosion will
74

occur. The headrace slope must be such that this velocity is maintained. Water depth

hnm(normal) is assumed to be equal to d as discussed above.

Let hnm (normal) = d= 0.8M

Wh = width of headrace canal

Ah = cross-sectional area of headrace canal

Qgross = Vh*Ah = Vh*hnm*Wh………………………………………………………..(29)

Q gross
Wh =
Vh * hhn

Wh = 19/2*0.8 = 11.875m. Therefore the width of headrace calculated is 11.875m

hh = d

Wh

Figure 25 Section of Headrace

Slope of headrace is found using Manning’s equation


2
 n *V 
S =  0.667h  ……………………………………………………………………….... (30)
R 

S = (0.03*2/0.7050.667)2 = 0.075

Where

S = slope of the headrace


75

Wh * hh A
R= = …………………………………………………………………(31)
Wh + 2hh P

R = 11.875*0.8/11.875+2*0.8 = 0.705

n = roughness value for the material of the headrace.

Spillway Design

The length of spillway Lspw is found from standard weir equation

Q = C w * Lw * (hOT )1.5 …………………………………………………………..….. (32)

In this scenario the following conditions exist. Height of the spillway crest Hspw is

aligned to the normal flow surface level or water depth.

Hspw = hhn

HOT = Hmf - hhn

Lspw = Lw= 20 m.

Q
Lspw = ……………………………………………………………… (33)
C w (hover −top )1.5

Qmf − Q g
= ………………………………………………………...….. (34)
C w (hmf − hspw )1.5

Where minor flood = 1.15 Qg

Hmf = 1.15 hspw………………………………………………………………………. (35)

Desilting Tank

Desilting tanks are often provided in the head reaches of canals and other water

conducting systems to traps as much as possible sediment in the water and thereafter

producing as sediment free water.


76

A basin for micro-hydropower scheme is often designed to remove particles with

diameter greater than 0.3mm with corresponding settling velocity of about 0.03 m/s

(Table 11).

Table 11: Vertical velocities of particles

Particle size mm Vertical m/s

0.1 0.02

0.3 0.03

0.5 0.1

1.0 0.4

The depth of basin is given by

D = 1.3 Q …………………………………………………………………………..(36)
D = 1.3 x (19)0.5 = 5.7m

Specific volume of desilting tank (Vs) = 50.7 Q ………………………………… (37)


VS = 50.5 x (19)0.5 = 220.124 m3

Tank Volume (VT) = VS*Q = 220.124* 19 = 4182.363 m3

Length of the desilting is given by;

VT
L= …………………………………………………………………………. (38)
4* D

L= (4182.363/4*5.7)0.5 = 13.54 m

Width of the desilting tank is given by;


77

L
W= = 13.54/4 = 3.385 m
4

Forebay

Forebay is usually designed for a live storage of 2 minutes. Based on this the volume is

given:

Volume of Forebay = Q*2*60 m3………………………………………………….. (39)

To size the forebay, we assume a depth d and calculate L and B

Where: L = length of forebay (m); B = width of forebay ( m) ; Q = flow into forebay

(m3/s); and Penstock diameter Ø = D, free board = 0.6H , and H= 1.5 to 2D

From equation (39)

Volume of forebay = 19*2*60 = 2280 m3

Assuming a depth of 10m and of 6m the length of forebay tank will be

Length= 2280/10*6 = 38 m

Channel

The length of the channel/canal is estimated from the topographic map and is 800 m. A

slope of this place is 0.15 also obtained from map. Open channel made of concrete is

designed. Flow capacity is given by the following equation;

A * R 2 / 3 * S 1/ 2
Qd = …………………………………………………………………. (40)
n

Where

A= cross sectional area; R= Hydraulic radius (A/P); P = length of wet sides

S = Longitudinal slope; and n = coefficient of roughness


78

Designed channel is a rectangular half square with the following specification (ESHA,

2004): Area (A)= 2y2 ; Wetted perimeter P= 4y ; Hydraulic radius R = 0.5y ; Top width

T= 2y ; and Water depth d = y. Putting A and R of equation (55) in terms of y we get;

2 y 2 * (0.5 y ) 2 / 3 * S 1 / 2
Q= …………………………………………………………. (41)
n

From equation (41) putting n = 0.012, S= 0.15 y is calculated.

Q= 1.2Qd= 1.2 x 19=22.8m3/s

22.8 = 2y2 x (0.5y)2/3 x 0.150.5/0.012

y = 1.044m

Now area of cross-sectional area of a channel

A= 2y2= 2 x 1.0442= 2.18 m2;

Wetted perimeter P = 4y= 4 x 1.044= 4.176m;

Hydraulic radius R = 0.5y = 0.5*1.044 = 0.522m;

Top width T = 2y = 2 x 1.044 = 2.088 m;

Water depth d = y = 1.044 m

Penstock

In designing penstock the length of a penstock (L) is determined from topographic

map. In this project the length of the penstock is 750 m. Restrict head loss to 5% of the

gross head is considered good practice:

h f 10.3xn 2 xQ 2 xL
= … ………………………………………………………….(42)
1 D 5.33

Where

He = head loss in penstock (m); hg = gross head (m); and L = length of penstock (m)
79

Using equation 42 and substituting values of n, Q, L and limiting frictional losses to 4%,

we can find the diameter of penstock by using the following equation;

0.1875
 n 2 xQ 2 xL 
D = 2.69  ..……………………………………………………….. (43)
 H 

D = 2.69(0.0122 x 192 x 750/117)0.1875 = 2.2 m

Pipe Thickness

The pipe thickness t for a pipe of internal diameter D and internal pressure P is given by

PxD
ti = +es……………………………………………………………………….(44)
S

Where

ti = pipe thickness (m); P = pressure (m of water); D = pipe internal diameter (m);

S = design stress of pipe material (N/m2) = ultimate tensile strength/safety factor

es = extra thickness to allow for corrosion = 30 mm

Pressure of water = Pa + ρgh………………………………………………………..(45)

Where

Pa= atmospheric pressure at water surface, ρ = water density, g= acceleration due to

gravity, h= head of water.

From equation 45

P= 1.103 x 105 + 1000 x 9.81 x 117

P = 110300 + 1147770 = 1258070 N/m2


80

Material selected for this penstock is welded steel with ultimate tensile strength of

400*106 N/m2 (ESHA, 2004) with a safety of factor of 2.

From eqn (44) pipe thicknesses is calculated as follows

ti = 1258070 x 2.2 x2/400 x106

ti = 0.013838 m + 0.003 = 0.016838 = 16.838m ~ 17 mm.

Therefore pipe thickness of the penstock is 17 mm.

Layout of Kilondo Hydropower and some drawing are shown in appendix M.

4.13 Social Impact Assessment (SIA)

A social impact survey was done to analyze and predict future social and economic

effect of Kilondo hydropower plant. All potentially affected working groups were

identified and these are: People lives nearby hydro power plant; those who will hear,

smell or see a development; those who are forced to relocate because of the project; and

those who have interest in a new project or policy change but may not live in proximity.

Once identified, a representative from each group was systematically interviewed to

determine potential areas of concern/impact, and ways each representative may be

involved in the planning/ decision process. Survey data was used to define the

potentially affected population. In the next step, the proposed action was described in

enough detail to begin to identify the data requirements needed from the project

proponent to frame the SIA. Social safeguards screening checklist shown in appendix 9

is a guide for obtaining data from policy or project proponents.

Population of Kilondo Village is 1130 people with 330 households scattered with one

primary school, one dispensary and five small shops at the trading center and two grain
81

mills. The main economic activity of the people is fishing and agriculture. The village is

headed by the Village Executive Officer (VEO) who is employed by the Local

Government. There is a Village chairman who is elected by all villagers.

4.14 Environmental Impact Assessments

The purpose of a preliminary environmental assessment is to identify and assess the

natural and social impacts of this project and to propose counter measures to avoid or

reduce any impact. Based on the current status of the natural and social environment

conditions in the study area was confirmed through interviews with the village

representatives in Kilondo Village, as well as by actually surveying the project area.

Also a number of major environmental impacts selected from VPO- EIA checklist was

adopted (Appendix J). The assessment showed that no impact items relevant to ratings A

and B (A: major environmental impact; B: medium level environmental impact) were

applicable for this project. However, some items relevant to rating C (minor

environmental impact) were identified as follows: Deterioration of landscape Flow

conditions change; and Impact on flora, fauna and aquatic life. The above identified

impact items are regarded as impacts generally caused by hydro power projects

regardless of the scale of the development. However, it is considered from the following

reasons that these impacts are not a major concern under the project development. It was

confirmed from interviews of village representative that there are no protected species of

animals or plants in and around the project area and also that water is not used for

irrigation, fishing, drinking, bathing, washing, etc, in Kilondo River. Between the intake

site and power station, where the stream flow condition would change upon operation of
82

the facilities. The land alteration due to the installation of power generation facilities is

limited due to the small scale of the project, and therefore there will be only a minimal

influence on the forest area. Consequently, it can be considered that there are no serious

environmental impacts as a consequence of the development of this project.

4.15 Economical Appraisal

The economic analysis is a comparison of costs and benefits that enables the

investor/investors to make an informed choice whether to develop the project or

abandon it (ESHA, 2004). Small hydro costs can be split into four segments which are:

Machinery, Civil works and external costs. Payback method was used to validate the

viability of the Kilondo hydropower project. The payback method determines the

number of years required for the invested capital to be offset by resulting benefits. The

required number of years is termed the payback, recovery, or break-even period. In

evaluation of economic analysis of this project RETScreen module was used. Initial

cost of the project is $ 7,805,206. Tarrif set by EWURA for selling wholesale to DNO

(currently TANESCO) connected to isolated mini-grid is 85.49 Tzs/kwh (EWURA,

2009). Kilondo hydropower plant of producing 130229MWh electrical energy annually

which and its total annual savings and income is $ 6,511,445 which gives a payback

period of 1.2 years. Figure 26 shows the financial viability of the project as calculated by

the RETScreen module. The details of the cost of the project are shown in the appendix

N
83

Financial viability
Pre-tax IRR - equity % 228,6%
Pre-tax IRR - assets % 68,6%

After-tax IRR - equity % 187,1%


After-tax IRR - assets % 55,7%

Simple payback yr 1,2


Equity payback yr 0,5

39 622
Net Present Value (NPV) $ 474
4 108
Annual life cycle savings $/yr 443

Benefit-Cost (B-C) ratio 17,93


Debt service coverage 5,63
Energy production cost $/MWh 10,59

GHG reduction cost $/tCO2 (150)

Figure 26: Financial viability of Kilondo Hydropower plant.

4.16 Hydrological Modeling

RETScreen module is set up in spread sheet environment and comprises four screens

which are: Energy data model; Cost analysis; Emission analysis; Financial analysis; Risk

analysis; and Tools. In the energy model the input data are: Gross head , Maximum tail

water effect, drainage area, specific run-off, residual flow, percent time firm flow

available, design flow, generator and transformer losses and parasitic losses and

hydrologic and equipment parameters (Table 16 ) and the module calculates Annual

energy production of 18 027kW. Flow duration curve (FDC) of Kilondo River was

entered in the energy module and the obtained output was FDC and load duration curve

(LDC) in tabular and graphic formats as seen in the Figure 27 below.


84

Figure 27: Flow duration and power curves.


85

Figure 28: Graph of turbine efficience and percent of rated flow.

In cost analysis screen economic parameters of the project were entered and the module

calculated the capital cost.


86

CHAPTER FIVE

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS


Conclusions
The summary of main findings, based on the analysis undertaken in the preceding

chapters, is presented in this section followed by sets of key recommendations.

Electricity Demand

Electricity demand of Kilondo village was assessed to be 86.7 kW with a peak load of

108.375 kW. The demand of electricity in Kilondo is growing, it is estimated that load

forecast for 25years will be 9819.765 kW. Energy demand for Kilondo village is

949.365MWh while the capacity of Kilondo power plant is to produce 136314.36

(MWh) annually. So there a surplus of 135364.995 MWh of electrical energy this can be

brought to the national electricity grid and produce revenue.

Head and stream flow of the River.

Adequate head and flow are necessary requirements for hydropower generation (ESHA,

2004). Kilondo river have a potential for producing electricity. The available head was

measured and was 117m. Kilondo river is a perennial it have some flow at all times of a

year. The designed flow for this plant is 19m3/s which is available at 95 percentage of

time and gives a power of 15.61 MW.

Preliminary design of small hydro power plant.

Preliminary design of Kilondo hydropower plant was carried out. The following civil

work components were designed: Weir and intake, headrace, spillway, desilting tank,

forebay tank, channel, and penstock. Francis turbine was selected since it meets both

head and power which can be produced by the plant.


87

Environmental impact assessment

The checklist for environmental impact assessment for Kilondo Hydropower plant was

grouped into the following: Social and natural environment aspects. Both of them show

that they have no negative impact to the environment.

Findings of Social Analysis

The benefits of rural electrification are undeniable, especially for the enhancement of

rural people’s live hood. The Project will bring about various positive social impacts. It

will directly contribute to economic growth and will reduce poverty by lowering

household energy costs and removing energy constraints to enterprises that offer

employment opportunities to the poor. Direct benefits will extend to all categories of

electricity consumers served by the plant; poor and vulnerable, and indigenous groups.

Benefits will include improvements to the existing quality of electricity supplied to

households, better quality lighting at cheaper prices than required for kerosene and/or

diesel, and improved air quality within homes. Infrastructure development is critical to

generating economic activity, employment, accelerating growth, and providing better

integration and social welfare. The Project will contribute to poverty reduction and will

specifically benefit people living in remote areas through a new source of electricity, and

improved frequency and voltage levels for various uses that will ultimately result in

socioeconomic growth. Overall, the social impact of the Project was determined to be

positive for the local population and the country as a whole. The need for employment

of locals is relatively high; the development is segregated from residential areas and is
88

located at sufficient distance from existing settlements to avoid serious impact on

residents.

Economical Appraisals of Kilondo hydropower plant

RETScreen module was used to analyze economic viability of Kilondo hydropower

project. From the module we get a payback of this project to be 1.2 years. Initial cost of

the project is $ 7,805,206 and estimated annual revenue is $ 6,511,445.

Modeling of RETScreen module

RETScreen module was used to analyze the viability of the project. The output

calculated from this module were: Firm flow (35m3/s), Turbine peak efficiency (93.1%),

Flow at peak efficiency (15.2 m3/s), Maximum hydraulic losses (89.7), power capacity

(18,027kW), Capacity factor (82.6%) and electricity exported to grid (130,375MWh)

Sustainability of Kilondo Hydropower plant

Sustainable small hydropower needs integration of three components economic, social

and environmental protection as interdependent mutually reinforcing pillars. For

Proposed Kilondo hydropower plant all these aspects has been addressed. Its benefits

have been maximized and negative environmental, social and economic impacts have

been avoided. At Kilondo village there is demand electricity and people are eager to pay

for electricity bills. The payback period for this project is 1.2 years as calculated from

the RETScreen module. In economic aspect Kilondo hydropower plant will: provide low

operating cost, provide long life span, meets loads flexibly, provide reliable sources,

instigates and foster rural development, provides highest energy efficiency rate (payback

ratio), generate revenue to sustain other water uses, creates employment opportunity,
89

saves fuel consumption, provides energy dependence by exploiting rural resources.

Socially Kilondo hydropower plant will: leave water available for other uses; provides

opportunities for construction and operation with a high percentage of local manpower;

sustain live hoods. Environmental impact assessment for Kilondo hydropower plant has

been done and shows there is negative impact on it. However the proposed project will

bring the following benefits: produces no atmospheric pollutants and other green house

gases emissions; enhance air quality; avoids depleting non-renewable fuel resources;

creating new freshwater ecosystems with increased productivity; and will helps to slow

down climate change. Proposed small hydropower plant will be sustainable and can be

implemented.

Recommendations.

For the Kilondo hydropower scheme to be sustainable there is a need to recognize

entitlements and share benefits with directly affected people. A legal framework needs

to be developed for enabling either the community or utility or any other private entity to

take over the management of Kilondo hydropower system. The frame work should

determine who would be responsible for paying for power injected into the grid.

However there should be establishment of spin-off activities made possible via use of

the generated electricity such as agro processing factories, manufacturing industries, and

promotion promotion of use of electricity in all new investments and redesigning of

existing structures for business and social services. Finally there should be established a

mechanism for training local electrical technicians, engineers and management

personnel for system maintenance.


90

REFERFNCES
Abosedra, S (2009), “Demand for Electricity in Lebanon”, International Business &

Economics Research Journal .Volume 8, Number1

Anders, A. (2006), “Tanzania Energy Sector Policy Overview Paper Dams and

Developmen” The report of the World Commission on Dams , Earthscan

Publications Ltd, November 2000.

Abdul-Aziz ,M. J (1999), The Electrical System expansion planning for the

Eastern Electrical Region, Saudi Arabia. JKAU: Eng. Sci., vol. 12, no. 1,

pp.123- 135 (1420 A.H. / 1999 A.D.)

Anderson, T. D (1999), Rural Energy Services, A handbook for stainable energy

development, Intermediate Technology Development Group (ITDG), London

Burdge, R. J (2003), “Impact Assessment and Project Appraisal”, Beech Tree

Publishing,volume 21, number 3, September 2003, pages 231– 250

BILA (2005), A guide to UK mini-hydro developments. British Hydropower

Association

Boustani, F (2009), An Assessment of the Small Hydropower Potential of Sisakht

Region of Yasuj, World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology 57

2009
91

Brassington, R (1988), Methods in stream ecology, Field Hydrogeology. Geological

Society of London Handbook Series. Open University Press. Hauer FR and

Lamberti GA, 1996. Academic Press

Cathleen,S (2010), “The Role of the German Development Cooperation in

Promoting Sustainable Hydropower”

DOE (2009), “Manuals and guidelines For Micro-hydropower development in rural

electrification in the Philippines”. Department of energy utilization management

bureau, Volume I June 2009

e-RGNepal (2004), “Environmental Resources Group (P) Ltd”

ESHA (2004), “Layman’s Guidebook on How to Develop a Small Hydro Site. Parts I

and II. DG XVII”, Commission of the European Communities, European Small

Hydropower association, Brussels

Fritz, J. J (1984), Small and Mini Hydropower Systems, McGraw-Hill Book

Company, New York

Ghods, L and Kalantar, M (2008), “Methods for Long-Term Electric Load

Demand Forecasting”, Center of Excellence for Power System Automation &

Operation Tehran, Iran. 978-1-4244-1706- 3/08/$25.00 ©2008 IEEE

Gordon, N. D, McMahon TA, Finlayson BL, Gippel GJ, Nathan RJ, 2004. Stream

Hydrology - An introduction for ecologists. 2nd Edition, Wiley

Hauer, F.R and Lamberti, G. (1996), Methods in stream ecology. Academic Press.

Helen Locher (2004), Sustainable Hydropower Information and Communication on

Good Practice. Hydro Tasmania


92

IAIA (1994), “Guidelines and Principles for Social Impact Assessment, Environmental

Impact Assessment”, Impact Assessment interorganisational Committee on

Guidelines and Principles. 1994 Volume 12, No. 2, 107-152

IEA (2004), “World Energy Outlook”, International Energy Agency, Paris, France.

IHA (2003), “The role of hydropower in sustainable development”.International

hydropower association white paper

Jayanta, K. G (2009), “Geospatial Technology – its applications in small Hydro

Power Project”, A paper presented at international training course on small

hydro

Jimmy Ehnberg, J (2007). Autonomous Power Systems based on Renewables - On

Generation reliability and system control. Thesis for the degree of doctor of

philosophy. Division of Electric Power Engineering Department of Energy and

Environment. Chalmers University of Technology G¨Oteborg, Sweden 2007

Kaale, B. K (2005), “Baseline Study on Biomass Energy Conservation in Tanzania”,

SADC programme for biomass energy conservation (ProBEC) report.

Kabaka, K. T and Gwang’ombe, F (2007), “Challenges in Small Hydropower Development in

Tanzania Rural Electrification Perspective”, A paper presented at International

Conference on Small Hydropower-Hydro Sri Lanka 22-24 October 2007

Karekezi, S and Kimani J (2005), “The potential contribution of non- electrified

renewable energy technologies for poverty reduction in east Africa”

Klunne, W. J (2009), “Hydropower Basics: Measurement of Flow”


93

Maidment, D .R (1993), Handbook of Applied Hydrology. Mc Graw Hill Inc., New

York.

Maleko, G.C (2005), Impact of electricity services on microenterprise in rural

areas in Tanzania. A thesis submitted for the award of master of Environmental

business administration (environmental and energy management- MBA).

Department of energy and sustainable development University of Twente,

Enschede. The Netherlands

Mehra M. K (2001), “Demand Forecasting for Electricity: the Indian experience”, In

Sarkar S K and Deb Kaushik (Eds), TERI. ISBN: 8185419884. PP 175192

Mohibullah, M. A. (2004), Basic Design Aspects of Micro Hydro Power Plant and Its

Potential Development in Malaysia, National Power & Energy Conference

(PECon) 2004 Proceedings, KualaLumpur, Malaysia.

Mostaf, M (2004) “Artificial neural networks applied to long-term electricity demand

forecasting,” Proceedings of the Fourth International Conference on Hybrid

intelligent Systems

Mtalo, F. W (2007), “Nyumba ya Mungu reservoir system simulation by using hec-

ressim model”, Tanzania Journal of Engineering and Technology, (TJET) Vol. 1

(No 3), July, 200

MWEM (1993), “Improvement of Wood fuel End-Use Efficiency in Rural Industries of SADC

Region”, Ministry of Water, Energy and Minerals. The United Republic of Tanzania.
94

NBCBN (2005), “Nile Basin Capacity Building Network”, Hydropower Development

Research Cluster. Small Scale Hydropower for Rural Development.

R.W.H (1999), “Hydrometry—Principles and Practices”, John Wiley & Sons,

Chichester. pp. VI+376. ISBN 0-471-97350-5.

Ramos H (2000), “Guidelines for design of small hydropower plants”, Department of

Economic Development, Belfast, North Ireland

RET Screen International (2010), “Clean Energy Project Analysis Software”, Natural

Resources Canada Ottawa

Sarkar, S and Gundekar, H. G (2007), “Geomorphologic Parameters: Are they

Indicators for Installation of a Hydropower Site”, International Conference on Small

Hydropower - Hydro Sri Lanka, 22-24 October 2007.

Singh S.N (2006), “Electrical load survey & load forecast for a standalone small

hydropower station”, Himalayan Small Hydropower Summit (October 12-13, 2006),

Dehradun.

Stevenson, M.A (1994), "Social Impact Assessment Principles and Approaches:

Reflections on 15 Years of Practice", Social Impact Assessment, No. 18, 2

, p.9- 14, NewYork,

TANESCO (2007), Tariff Application Jan2008-Aug 07

TNBS (2002), Tanzania Household Report, Tanzania National Bureau of Statistics


95

TaTEDO (1998), “A study on factors hindering wide adoption of improved charcoal

stoves”,

Taylor N (1998), “Retooling Impact Assessment for the New Century”, The Press Club,

Fargo, USA (pp.210-218).

URT (2003), National Energy Policy 2003, Ministry of Energy and Minerals

Government Printers

URT (2008), Power System Master Plan Study Final report Volume ii -

Main Report , Government Printers

VPO (1997), National Environment Policy, Vice President’s Office, Dar es Salaam,

Government Printers

Wamukonya, N (2001), Renewable Energy Technologies in Africa, UNEP

CollaboratingCentre on Energy and Environment.

Wazed, M.A and Ahmed, S (2008), “Micro Hydro Energy Resources in Bangladesh”, A

Review. Australian Journal of Basic and Applied Sciences, 2(4):1209-1222, 2008

ISSN 1991-8178 © 2008, INSInet Publication

Wehmeir, S (2002), Oxford Advanced Learners Dictionary. Oxford University

Press 2000. Sixth Edition

Younis A. G (1996) “Use of a GIS in reconnaissance studies for small-scale

hydro power development in a developing country: a case study of Tanzania”.

Proceedings of the Vienna conference, April 1996. IAHS Publ. no. 235, 1996
96

APPENDICES

APPENDIX A: Diversified Unit Load and Group Diversity Factors for Classified
Loads
S/N Classification of load Consumer Diversified unit Group Diversity
load (D) Factor
(kW) (kW)
1 Residential Small load house 0.2 0.6
Medium load house 0.8 0.6
Large load house 2.0 0.6

2 Light commercial Small restaurant 0.2 0.6


Hotel/Camp 2.0 0.6
Bar 2.0 0.6
Guest house 2.0 0.8
Small shop 0.2 0.6
Shop 1.0 0.8
Court 0.2 1.0
Garage 1.5 1.0
Small workshop 2.0 1.0
Go down 0.5 1.0
Ward/Division H/Q 2.0 1.0
Custody 0.2 1.0
Police station 1.0 1.0
Office 2.5 1.0
Petrol station 1.0 1.0
Youth/Women centre 2.0 1.0
Community centre 2.0 1.0
Hospital/health centre 50 1.0
Dispensary 0.5 1.0
Bank 2.5 1.0
Post office 0.5 1.0
College 20 1.0
Primary school 2.0 0.8
Secondary school 20 0.8
Tailoring 2.0 0.8
Mission 50 1.0
Market 1.0 1.0
Carpentry 2.0 1.0
3 Light industry Grain mills** 15 1.0
Water pump** 25 1.0
4 Church 0.5 0.8
Mosque 0.2 0.8
Street lights 0.5 1.0
5 Heavy industry Plant 0.75
97

6 solar
Generator
Car batteries

APPENDIX B: Demand Survey Questionnaire


1. General data
1. 1. Region………………………………………………………………..
1.2 District…………………………………………………………………
1.3 Ward…………………………………………………………………
1.4 Village……………………………………………………………….
2. Accessibility
2.1 From District Headquarters to Village
Distance km
Road condition Asphalt: km rocks: km soil: km
Other: km
Trip time
Transportation mode Public vehicle/bus motorcycle
Ship/ferry others……………………..

2.2. Village to site location


Distance km
Road condition Asphalt: km rocks: km soil: km
Other: km
Trip time
Transportation mode Public vehicle/bus motorcycle
Ship/ferry others……………………..

3. Demography Location of Small Hydro Power Potential


3.1 Total population Person
3.2 Total family head Family head
3.3 Total house House
3.4 Living source
3.5 Population distribution Spread centralized grouping…………
3.6 Income per month
3.7 Public organization Multipurpose farmer group religious group

4. Village Infrastructure
4.1 Public facility
4.2 School Elementary school/Junior High school/
Senior high school/other………
4.3 House of worship Mosque church other………
4.4 Health services Local government clinic others……
4.5 Government offices Village, ward other…….
4.6 Productive business
4.7 Market None / exist daily weekly
4.8 Small industry
4.9 Economy Potential
4.10 Others……….

5. Location of Small Hydro Power Plant


5.1 Location
98

5.2 River
5.3 Status of land ownership Private village donated land other…..
5.4 Location condition Heavy area in forest near strategic
Value: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

APPENDIX C: Questionnaire for Households of Non-Electrified Villages

Name of respondent____________________________________________________________
Interviewer’s name____________________________________________________________
Date_______________________________________________________________________
A. Family profile
1. Number of family members(only living together in the same house)
Male adults at 20 years or over __________________persons
Female adults at 20 years or over _________________persons
Children less than 20 years ___________________persons
Total __________________persons
2. Number of children going to school
University student __________________ persons
High school student __________________ persons
Secondary school student _________________ persons
Primary school student _________________ persons
Total _________________ persons

3. How many of your family members are earning income in the village?______pesrons
4. How many of your family members are living in other town to work?______ persons
5. Is your household headed by male or female?
Tick(√)
Male
Female
6. How many of your family members graduated from high school?
B. Housing
7. How many rooms does your house have ? ___________ rooms
8. What is floor area of your house? __________ m2
9. What type of roof is used for the house ?
Type of roof Tick(√)

Tiled roof

GI sheet roof

Thatched roof

C. Economic aspects
Household income
10. How much is your family earning from agriculture?
Type of Average amount Time of Average farm Approximate Subsistence
crops of production per cropping per gate price(Tsh) annual /cash crop
cropping(kg) year earning(Tsh)
99

11. Earning from fishery


Type of fish Annual average Annual average cost(Tsh) Subsistence/cash
earning(Tsh)

12. What kind of income sources does your family have? Insert the amount of earning of the last month in each
category by each income earner.
Income earner 1st income earner 2nd income earner

Salaries/wages

Pension

Handicraft

Other cottage industry

Shops/restaurants

Services(e.g. hair-dress,
car garage)

Money transfer from


outside village

Other(specify)

Total

Household Expenditure
13. How much did your household spend on each item for the last month?
No Item of expenditure Amount

1 Food

2 Clothing

3 Housing

4 Inputs for business

5 Utilities

6 Tax
100

7 Education

8 Transportation

9 Health care

10 Others

Total

14. How much did your household spend on the utility expect energy for the last month?
No. Item of expenditure Amount

1 Portable water

2 Irrigation water

3 Sanitation

4 Others

Total

15. How much did your household spend on the energy-related item for the last month?
No. Item of expenditure Amount

1 Electricity

2 Gas

3 Solar power

4 Kerosene

5 Diesel oil

6 Coal

7 Charcoal

8 Fuel wood

9 Dry batteries

10 Candles

11 Matches

12 Car battery charging

13 Others
101

Total

16. If Kilondo village is to be electrified and your house is to be connected with electricity distribution systems, all of
your existing costs for lighting and heating as mentioned above may be saved. In this case , how much monthly charge
are you willing to pay for new electricity services?

Range(Tsh./month) 1000 ~ 3000~ 6000 ~ More than 9000(specify)

3000 6000 9000

Tick(√)

D. Energy Related Property


17. Do you have the following equipment for lighting and/or heating?
Kind of a) b)kerosene c)Gas fired cooking d) Car e) Others(specify:)
equipment Generator lamp appliance. battery

Number

18. What kind of electrical appliances does your household currently use?
( )Bulb/fluorescent light ___________________units
( )TV – set _____________units
( ) Radio & cassette recorder set _____________ units
( )Refrigerator _____________ units
( )Air conditioner ____________ units
( ) Other, specify_______________ ____________ units

19. What kind of electrical appliances does your household currently use for productive
activities?
( ) Saw mill machine
( ) Rice milling machine
( ) Rice dryer
( ) Irrigation pump
( ) Other, specify ________________________________________

E. Needs for Electricity


Priority needs
20. Could you give your priority order on the following needs?
Priority

Water supply

Education

Health care

Sanitation (toilet, solid waste, drainage, etc)

Electrification
102

Irrigation

Road improvement

Others (specify)

Effort to have access to electricity


21. Has your household ever attempted to have access to electricity?
( ) If Yes go to question 22
( )If no go to question 29

22. What type of electricity generation did your household plan to have access to?
( ) Diesel generator set
( ) Solar home system
( ) Wind power
( ) Micro hydropower
( ) Biomass
( ) Other specify_______________________

23. Specify the reason for selecting the type of electricity generation

24. Did your house hold succeed in having access to electricity?


( ) If Yes go to question 25
( ) If no go to question 26

25. Is your generating system functioning as expected?

( ) If Yes go to question 27
( ) If no go to question 28

26. If your household did not succeed in having access to electricity , explain the reason for the failure.
27. What positive impact could your household receive from electricity? Explain.

28. What problems did your household encounter regarding facility?


Problem Tick(√)

Expensive cost of fuel

Unable to fix breakdown

Insufficient electric power to meet the demand

Other(specify)

Purpose of using electricity


29. If you can have access to electricity, what kind of electrical appliances and how many appliances do you want to
use?
103

( ) Bulb/fluorescent light ___________________units


( ) TV – set _____________units
( ) Radio & cassette recorder set _____________ units
( ) Refrigerator _____________ units
( ) Air conditioner ____________ units
( ) Other, specify_______________ ____________ units

30. What kind facility/equipment do you want to use electricity for productive activities?
( ) Saw mill machine
( ) Rice milling machine
( ) Rice dryer
( ) Irrigation pump
( ) Other, specify ________________________________________

31. What public facilities do you think should have access to electricity?
( ) School
( ) Mosque/church
( ) Clinic/health center
( ) Water pump for drinking water
( ) Others, specify__________________________________________

Electrification by the organization other than TANESCO


32. Who/what organization do you think would be the most appropriate for the installation of the electricity supply
system?
( ) Central government ( ) Local government ( ) NGO
( ) Private Investor ( ) Village members (including village head)
( ) Others, specify___________________ ( ) don’t know

33. Do you and /or your family member volunteer to participate in working for the
construction without any cash reward if the generating facility is to be installed
in the village?
( ) yes ( ) no

34. Who/what organization should be responsible for operation and maintenance of the system?
( ) Central government ( ) Local government ( ) NGO
( ) Private Investor ( ) Village members (including village head)
( )Others, specify___________________ ( ) don’t know

35. Do you and/or your member want to participate in working for operation and maintenance?
( ) Yes ( ) no

36. Who/what organization should be responsible for billing and collection of charges for
electricity?
( ) Central government ( ) Local government ( ) NGO
( ) Private Investor ( ) Village members (including village head)
( ) Others, specify___________________ ( ) don’t know
104

37. How should the electricity tariff be decided?


( ) Same level as TANESCO tariff system
( ) Based on consultation with and consensus of the community
( ) Free of charge
( ) Other, specify____________________

APPENDIX D: Number of Identified Consumers in Kilondo-Ludewa


NUMBER OF IDENTIFIED CONSUMERS IN KILONDO
VILLAGE
S/N Classification of load consumer Number

1 Residential Small load house 330


Medium load house 0
Large load house 0

2 Light commercial Small restaurant 0


Hotel/Camp 0
Bar 0
Guest house 0
Small shop 5
Shop 0
Court 0
Garage 0
Small workshop 1
Go down 0
Ward/Division H/Q 1
Custody 0
Police station 0
Office 2
Petrol station 0
Youth/Women centre 0
Community centre 0
Hospital/health centre 0
Dispensary 1
Bank 0
Post office 0
College 0
Primary school 1
Secondary school 0
Tailoring 0
Mission 0
Market 1
Carpentry 2
3 Light industry Grain mills** 2
Water pump** 0
105

4 Church 2
Mosque 0
Street lights 0

5 Heavy industry Plant 0

6 solar 2
Generator 2
Car batteries 0

APPENDIX E: Load Demand Determination for Kilondo-Ludewa (Individual


Load Demand)
nc*Du
Number Of Identified Consumers In Kilondo- Village
S/N Classification of load consumer Number (nc) Diversified unit load (Du) Load(D)
(kW) (kW)
1 Residential Small load house 330 0.2 66
Medium load house 0 0.8 0
Large load house 0 2.0 0

2 Light commercial Small restaurant 0 0.2 0


Hotel/Camp 0 2.0 0
Bar 0 2.0 0
Guest house 0 2.0 0
Small shop 5 0.2 1
Shop 0 1.0 0
Court 0 0.2 0
Garage 0 1.5 0
Small workshop 1 2.0 2
Go down 0 0.5 0
Ward/Division H/Q 1 2.0 2
Custody 0 0.2 0
Police station 0 1.0 0
Office 2 2.5 5
Petrol station 0 1.0 0
Youth/Women centre 0 2.0 0
Community centre 0 2.0 0
Hospital/health centre 0 50 0
Dispensary 1 0.5 0.5
Bank 0 2.5 0
Post office 0 0.5 0
College 0 20 0
Primary school 1 2.0 2
Secondary school 0 20 0
Tailoring 0 2.0 0
Mission 0 50 0
106

Market 1 1.0 1
Carpentry 2 2.0 4
3 Light industry Grain mills** 2 15 30
Water pump** 0 25 0
4 Church 1 0.5 0.5
Mosque 0 0.2 0
Street lights 0 0.5 0
5 Heavy industry Plant 0
6 Solar 2
Generator 2
Car batteries 0

APPENDIX F: Maximum Power in Kilondo Village


Market Demand
INDIVIDUAL DIVERSIFIED MAXIMUM POWER IN KILONDO VILLAGE (MD)
S/N Classification of Consumer Load (D) Group Diversity Load
load Factor
(kW) (Dg) (kW) (kW)
1 Residential Small load house 66 0.6 39.6
Medium load house 0 0.6 0
Large load house 0 0.6 0
Residential subtotal 39.6
2 Light commercial Small restaurant 0 0.6 0
Hotel/Camp 0 0.6 0
Bar 0 0.6 0
Guest house 0 0.8 0
Small shop 1 0.6 0.6
Shop 0 0.8 0
Court 0 1.0 0
Garage 0 1.0 0
Small workshop 2 1.0 2.0
Go down 0 1.0 0
Ward/Division H/Q 2 1.0 2.0
Custody 0 1.0 0
Police station 0 1.0 0
Office 5 1.0 5.0
Petrol station 0 1.0 00
Youth/Women centre 0 1.0 0
Community centre 0 1.0 0
Hospital/health centre 0 1.0 0
Dispensary 0.5 1.0 0.5
Bank 0 1.0 0
Post office 0 1.0 0
College 0 1.0 0
Primary school 2 0.8 1.6
Secondary school 0 0.8 0
Tailoring 0 0.8 0
107

Mission 0 1.0 0
Market 1 1.0 1.0
Carpentry 4 1.0 4.0
Light commercial 16.7
Subtotal
3 Light industry Grain mills** 30 1.0 30
Water pump** 0 1.0 0
30
4 Church 0.5 0.8 0.4
Mosque 0 0.8 0
Street lights 0 1.0 0
0.4
5 Heavy industry Plant 0.75
6 Solar
Generator
Car batteries
TOTAL DIVERSIFIED MARKET DEMAND (kW) 86.7

APPENDIX H: Energy demand forecast for 25 years


No. Year Energy demand (MWh) Production Surplus (MWh) Deficit
(MWh) (MWh)
1 2010 949.365 136314.36 135364.995 0
2 2011 1898.730 136314.36 134415.63 0
3 2012 2848.095 136314.36 133466.265 0
4 2013 3797.460 136314.36 132516.9 0
5 2014 3915.4134 136314.36 132398.946 0
6 2015 7830.8268 136314.36 128483.534 0
7 2016 11746.240 136314.36 124568.12 0
8 2017 15661.654 136314.36 120652.706 0
9 2018 19577.067 136314.36 116737.293 0
10 2019 23492.480 136314.36 112821.88 0
11 2020 27407.894 136314.36 108906.466 0
12 2021 31323.307 136314.36 104991.053 0
13 2022 35238.721 136314.36 101075.639 0
14 2023 39154.134 136314.36 97160.226 0
15 2024 43069.547 136314.36 93244.813 0
16 2025 46984.901 136314.36 89329.459 0
17 2026 50900.374 136314.36 85413.986 0
18 2027 54815.788 136314.36 81498.572 0
19 2028 58731.201 136314.36 77583.159 0
20 2029 62646.614 136314.36 73667.746 0
21 2030 66562.028 136314.36 69752.332 0
22 2031 70477.441 136314.36 65836.919 0
23 2032 74392.855 136314.36 61921.505 0
24 2033 78308.268 136314.36 58006.092 0
25 2034 82223.681 136314.36 54090.679 0
108

APPENDIX I: Social Safeguards Screening Checklist


Social Safeguard Issues Yes No Not Remarks
Known
A. Involuntary Resettlement Impacts

(i) Identification of IPs/EMs in the Project Area. If there are IPs/EMs in the
project area,
- Are there population groups who have been √ assess project
living in the project location before modern
impacts on
states or territories were created and before
such groups.
modern borders were defined
If there are no IP/EMs, no
– maintain cultural and social identities √ action
separate from mainstream or dominant is required.
societies and cultures
– self-identify, or by law or are identified by √
others part of a distinct indigenous cultural
group or ethnic minority
– have a linguistic identity different from that of √
the mainstream society
– have social, cultural, economic and political √
traditions and institutions distinct from the
mainstream culture
– economic systems oriented more toward
traditional systems of production than the
mainstream systems
– maintain attachments to traditional habitats √
and ancestral territories and the natural
resources in these habitats and territories
-have established a presence and separate √
social cultural identity.
(ii) Do IPs/EMs maintain distinctive customs or √ If there are significant
economic activities that may make them impacts
vulnerable to hardship? on IPs/EMs, prepare an
IPDP/EMDP.
(iii) Will the project restrict their economic and √
social activity and make them particularly
vulnerable in the context of project?
(iv) Will the project change their socioeconomic √
and cultural integrity?
(v) Will the project disrupt their community life? √
(vi) Will the project positively affect their health, √
education, livelihood or social security status?
(vii) Will the project negatively affect their health,education, √
livelihood or social security status?
(viii) Will the project alter or undermine the √
recognition of their knowledge, preclude
customary behaviors or undermine customary
institutions?
(ix) In case no disruption of indigenous √
community life as a whole, will there be loss of
109

housing, strip of land, crops, trees and other


fixed assets owned or controlled by individual
indigenous households?
– Are national and local laws and regulations √ If there are gaps, project
compatible with ADB’s Involuntary specific resettlement
Resettlement policy? principles
and measures need to be
incorporated in the RP.
– Will coordination between the Project √ If yes, institutional
Sponsor and Government agencies be arrangements to deal with
required to deal with land acquisition? resettlement planning and
implementation need to be
outlined in the RP
– Does the Project Sponsor have sufficient √ If no, capacity building
skilled staff to undertake resettlement requirements need to be
planning and implementation? described in the RP or RF.
– Are training and capacity-building √
interventions required prior to resettlement
planning and implementation?
IR Impact Category Plan required
A Significant (200 people or more will experience major impacts) Full RP Full RP

B Not significant (Less than 200 people will experience major impacts) Short RP Short RP

C √ C No impact None
B. Indigenous Peoples (IP)/Ethnic Minorities
(EM) Concerns
(i) Identification of IPs/EMs in the Project Area. If there are IPs/EMs in the
project area, assess project
- Are there population groups who have been √
impacts on such groups. If
living in the project location before modern
there are no IP/EMs, no
states or territories were created and before
action
modern borders were defined
is required.
– maintain cultural and social identities √
separate from mainstream or dominant
societies and cultures
– self-identify, or by law or are identified by √
others part of a distinct indigenous cultural
group or ethnic minority
– have a linguistic identity different from that of √
the mainstream society
– have social, cultural, economic and political √
traditions and institutions distinct from the
mainstream culture
– economic systems oriented more toward √
traditional systems of production than the
mainstream systems
– maintain attachments to traditional habitats √
and ancestral territories and the natural
resources in these habitats and territories
110

- have established a presence and separate √


social cultural identity.
(ii) Do IPs/EMs maintain distinctive customs or √ If there are significant
economic activities that may make them impacts
vulnerable to hardship? on IPs/EMs, prepare an
IPDP/EMDP.
(iii) Will the project restrict their economic and √
social activity and make them particularly
vulnerable in the context of project?
(iv) Will the project change their socioeconomic √
and cultural integrity?
(v) Will the project disrupt their community life? √
(vi) Will the project positively affect their health, √
education, livelihood or social security status?
(vii) Will the project negatively affect their health, √
education, livelihood or social security status?
(viii) Will the project alter or undermine the √
recognition of their knowledge, preclude
customary behaviors or undermine customary
institutions?
(ix) In case no disruption of indigenous √ If relocation is required, a
community life as a whole, will there be loss of combined IPDP/EMDP and
housing, strip of land, crops, trees and other RP
fixed assets owned or controlled by individual may be prepared.
indigenous households?
IP Impact Category Plan required:
A Significant IPDP/EMDP

B Not significant Specific Action in the RP

C No impact None

RP- Resettlement Plan


EMDP- Ethnic Minority Development Plan
IP- Indigenous Peoples
AP- Affected Person
EM- Ethnic Minorities
111

APPENDIX J: Checklist for Environmental Impact Assessment

Impact Items Evaluation Reasons

Population 1 Change in the local population


distribution (minority ethnic group
Social problem included) X
Enviroment
2 Relocation (minority ethnic group
problem included) X

Industry 3 Agriculture and forestry C

4 Fishery C

5 Secondary Industry (mining and


mineral resources included) X

6 Tertiary industry (tourism and


recreation included) X
Local cut-off (minority ethnic
Communication 7 group problem included) X

Transportation 8 Influence on land transportation X

9 Influence on water transportation X

River basin and its utilization 10 Influence on water rights and


fishing rights etc C
Occurrence and transmission of
11 river basin related diseases C
Sanitation conditions Deterioration of sanitary
12 environment during construction D
Scenery
13 Deterioration of land scape B

Cultural assets, etc 14 Influence on cultural assets X

Natural Subject 15 Influence on inducible earthquakes D


Environment
Topograph 16 Slope slide B

17 Sedimentation in beck water area C


Toposphere
18 Influence on downstream channels X

19 Influence on beaches X

Geology 20 Soil erosion C

21 Soil contamination X

Hydrosphere 22 River basin change C

23 Influence on ground water X


Hydrological
phenomena 24 Flow condition change C
112

water quality 25 Water temperature change X

Impact Items Evaluation Reasons

Natural 26 Eutrophication D

Environment 27 Turbid water C

Sediment 28 Sediment component change D

Biosphere Plants 29 Influence on dams X

Animals 30 Influence on animals C


Aquatic
organisms 31 Influence on aquatic organisms B
Ecological
system 32 Destruction of ecologic system C

Atmosphere

Air 33 Air pollution X

34 Microclimate change X

Odour 35 Generation of odour substances X

Noise/vibration 36 Occurrence of noise and vibration C

Note
A- Serious impact
B- Medium level impact
C- Slight impact
D- Unkwon (Study is necessary. It is also necessary to consider that the Impact may be clarified as the
study progresses)
X- Environmental impact by this study does not exist

APPENDIX K: Average Monthly Rainfall (mm) for Kilondo from 1976-1980

YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC

1976 84.00 90.90 176.00 185.00 114.00 78.50 16.15 12.38 1.14 2.26 32.50 79.38

1977 70.50 137.00 157.00 157.00 100.50 65.00 17.95 1.00 0.00 2.26 187.20 125.30

1978 183.50 128.00 255.00 282.00 213.50 178.00 56.85 0.00 0.00 2.26 115.90 116.90

1979 115.90 185.00 109.00 59.50 145.90 110.00 0.00 0.00 3.87 1.35 86.60 173.20

1980 147.70 88.30 133.00 193.00 177.70 142.00 0.00 0.00 8.23 1.19 22.90 76.78

Average 120.32 125.84 166.00 175.30 150.32 114.70 18.19 2.68 2.65 1.86 89.02 114.31
113

Appendix M: Layout of Kilondo Hydropower Plant

Abutement

Channel

Weir
Forebay Tank

Penstock

Kilondo River
Power house
House

Tail Race

River Crossing

Metres
0 500 1000