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SOLAR ENERGY IN 2020
Shraddha Panda
E&E dept, GIT, Udyambagh, Belgaum.
e_mail:giteessp87@yahoo.co.in
Abstract— The growing demand for energy has necessitated the
need for finding alternative means for meeting the increasing
demand. Looking at the present urban scenario, its easy to say
that the demand growth will increase very rapidly by 2020.To
reduce this demand-supply gap, renewable sources have to be
developed.
Solar power is a big name in the field of renewable
sources because of its advantages over its counterparts. It has
enormous amount of supply, the only thing is to extract it and use
it in the correct manner. If we start developing solar power in the
present day, then it will meet up maximum of the global energy
demands in 2020.
This paper deals with how solar potential can be used in
the best way and what steps are being taken up and can be taken
up gradually, to meet the energy demands globally.
1. INTRODUCTION
Energy is the fundamental to daily life. Whether it is
providing lights for our class rooms, refrigeration for our food
and medicine, pumps to irrigate our crops or else to run our
commercial and industrial enterprises, energy provides the
means for economic growth, social and political development.
[2]
Change in this urban scenario, and improvement in
living standards have increased the requirement of electricity
and other energy systems. There is a fast growing demand of
energy now in the present day. The demand of energy is
growing at a faster rate than the generation.
If we look at the practical picture of the energy
system, then we will realize what problems are in store for the
future. There has been a significant surge in the price of oil,
which crosses 70 dollars per barrel in the recent past and is
projected to increase further more in the future. International
prices of coal have also doubled up.
In the present scenario, with both peaking and energy
shortages, the demand-supply gap is not likely to be bridged
over at least another decade.
The higher levels of demand projected for the coming
years are likely to be met mainly through import of fossil
fuels. But by doing this, our country’s economic is sure to be
affected. The imperative to reduce our dependence on fossil
fuels and to get equal use of all the resources available, it is
necessary to accelerate the development of renewable energy
resources.
Renewable energy resources should be implemented
now in the coming decades to avoid economic collapse in the
world. [1] Analysts from Shell International Petroleum, for
example, suggested as early as 1996 that the transition to
renewable energy must start now, and reach at least 20%

1
saturation in the energy market by 2020, in order to
accomplish over 50% saturation by 2050. [4]
2. ENERGY DEMAND IN PRESENT DAY AND IN 2020
Worldwide, some 2 billion people are currently
without electricity, which is one of the most important part of
energy. Developing countries use 30% of global energy. Rapid
population growth, combined with economic growth, will
rapidly increase that percentage in the next 10 years. [1].
World energy consumption is projected to increase by 59%
from the present day to 2020. Much of the growth in
worldwide energy use is expected in the developing world [6].
2.1 RENEWABLE ENERGY
Over the last 3 decades, renewable energy is being
promoted in India, and today over 7000 MW renewable power
stands installed with a share of about 6 percent of the total
installed capacity in India. Besides, a variety of renewable
energy systems and devices have been developed and
deployed all over the country, which help in meeting the
growing energy requirement of domestic, commercial,
agricultural and industrial sectors. This has been possible due
to the growing share of indigenous manufacturers for
manufacturing Renewable Energy systems and devices for a
variety of applications.[1]
Renewable energy can also generate revenue for
cities and public agencies by making it feasible for them to
invest in local, renewable energy capacity. By installing
windpower, solar power, geothermal or bio-diesel capabilities,
government and public agencies can reduce their own reliance
on traditional energy sources while potentially tapping into the
"renewable electricity credits" market. [5]
2.2 VARIOUS SOURCES OF RENEWABLE ENERGY
The renewable sources available in the world include
wind energy, solar photovoltaic, biomass, tidal or oceanic
power, geo-thermal energy, fuel cells, bio-diesel, biomass,
bio-ethanol etc.
The following graph shows the use of the various
renewable sources in the present day.
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Renewable energy sources worldwide in 2005
2.3 ADVANTAGES OF RENEWABLE OVER
CONVENTIONAL
Renewable energy has greater advantage over the
non-renewable ones. It can play a vital role in supplying
electrical power in industries that are located in remote areas
where the electricity supply is normally erratic and of poor
quality. It is very easily available and power can be extracted
in an easier way. The only limitation is, it uses a lot of land
area. But, it is reliable as it is easy to harvest energy from
them, cos of its availability. And moreover, the power
generated from renewable energy is clean, unlike that with the
non-renewable ones, which emits a lot of pollutants. Thereby,
by using renewable sources, we can keep our environment
clean and yet can meet all our energy demands.
2.4 WHY SOLAR AMONG REST ALL SOURCES
The majority of renewable energy technologies are
directly or indirectly powered by the sun. The Earth-
Atmosphere system is in equilibrium such that heat radiation
into space is equal to incoming solar radiation, the resulting
level of energy within the Earth-Atmosphere system can
roughly be described as the Earth's "climate." The sun also
drives our climate – wind, clouds and thus also rains are a
result of solar irradiance. Similarly, sunshine is essential to
biomass. This is why wind energy, hydropower and biomass
are included under the concept of solar energy in a wider
sense.
Among all the other renewable resources, solar
energy will become economically competitive in the next
decade or so and supply a significant amount of the world's
power in 2020. At present, solar power costs are about double
the price of power generated by other energy sources, Industry
groups say solar power is now a $7 billion industry, but that
will change over time. Such a forecast expects the future price
of fossil fuels to rise as well as an eventual economy of scale
for solar technology as it becomes more widespread. So far,
Japan has led the way in solar energy expansion, followed by
Germany [3] Solar Energy demand has grown at about 25%
per annum over the past 15 years. [6]
2
We expect with confidence that the production of
electricity by solar energy technologies will be fully market-
competitive by 2020. This will result from a number of
factors:
• First, the world demand for oil will exceed supply probably
during the present decade, leading to a dramatic and
permanent increase in the price of oil and forever altering the
economics of energy production, dragging other fossil energy
resource costs along.
• Second, the demand of the industrial nations for natural gas
will also exceed supply and system capacity, leading to a
dramatic and permanent increase in the cost of gas.
• Third, international pressures on Climate Change will lead to
an increase in costs for coal through carbon taxes and much
more stringent emission reduction requirements.
• Fourth, the value-added benefits from the use of the solar
energy
resources (e.g. reducing building cooling system size, first
costs and operation and maintenance costs through shading
and roof ventilation by PV systems, taking advantage of the
economic benefits of "distributed generation" and increased
system and building reliability by integrating on-site energy
resources into the operation of the grid, and enhancing rural
income by diversifying and stabilizing farm earnings with
energy crops, just to give three examples) will become
recognized market-stimuli.
• Fifth, the costs of these direct solar energy technologies will
continue to decline, while, as suggested above, costs for all
competing energy systems will continue to increase.
Therefore, it can be assumed that the solar energy
technologies that make use of the solar energy directly will all
have found their way into market acceptability and full
competitiveness by 2020. [4] Moreover, Solar Energy
(photovoltaic) prices have declined on average 4% per annum
over the past 15 years. Progressive increase in conversion
efficiencies and manufacturing economies of scale are the
underlying drivers.[6] therefore its not hard to predict that the
use of solar energy will surely increase a lot, by the year 2020.
2.5 HOW TO USE SOLAR POWER
Solar energy in a broader sense can be used in three ways:
1. Solar thermal collectors use the solar radiation falling
on them to heat tap water (and, to a lesser extent, to heat water
for space heating).
2. Photovoltaic modules convert solar radiations directly
into electricity.
3. Solar thermal power plants use solar heat by
concentrating solar radiation (for instance, using mirror
focussed upon a “solar power tower”, by means of parabolics
troughs) and then conveying the energy of the heater to a
turbine and then to a Stirling engine.
2.5.1. SOLAR THERMAL INDUSTRY:
The energy from the sun when converted into thermal
energy is called solar thermal energy. There are 22 major
industries where in boilers supply process heat in the form of
either steam or hot air. These industries include dairy, food
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processing, textiles, hotels, edible oil, chemicals, breweries
and distilleries.
The medium temperature range of solar thermal
systems is 75-250°C, which is the requirement of most of the
industries. Therefore, the solar thermal systems can be
employed to meet the industrial demand in a complementary
manner.
It is estimated that about 60% of the thermal energy
consumed in the industry is used to process end products even
if only 10% of this requirement is met through solar thermal
systems, it would lead to a saving of about 292 to 400
kilolitres of furnace oil per annum.
The use of solar thermal technologies as a
replacement for fossil fuels in industries is a good solution for
the economical problems caused by the use of fossil fuels.
Solar thermal systems offer a viable long-term solution to
control energy costs, as solar energy is free of cost and is not
subjected to inflation. Moreover, once the capital investments
in the solar plant and machinery have been recovered, the
energy costs start to fall. The major products based on the
solar thermal energy includes:
1. Solar water heating system: these systems are
commercialized now and are recognized as reliable
products that can save substantial amount of
electricity and conventional fuels, lead to peak load
reduction and reduce emission of carbon dioxide, a
major green house gas. MNES is pursuing the state
governments with the proposal of making solar water
heating mandatory in certain categories of buildings
though amendments in the building bye-laws. Thane
& Rajkot Municipal Corporation are implementing
these laws since 2004-05. There are 17 manufacturers
of solar water heaters based on evacuated tube
collectors and 83 for flat plate collector.
2. Solar cooker: the heat from the sun can be effectively
used for cooking. On clear sunny days, it is possible
to cook food in a solar cooker. Different type of solar
cookers have been developed, which includes box
cooker, dish cooker, cardboard cooker and
community cooker for indoor cooking and solar
steam cooking system, for mass coking. A total of
around 2000 dish solar cookers have been installed so
far in the country. A solar cooking system for
cooking food for 5000 people per day is installed at
Sringeri math in Karnataka. There are about 30 units
in the small-scale sector for the box-type solar
cookers.
3. Solar hot air system: solar air heating technology can
effectively be used for drying or curing of
agricultural products, space heating for comfort,
regeneration of dehumidifying agents, seasoning of
timber, tanning f leather and many other industrial
and agro based activities. Because of the drying
process, required temperature, micro climate and site
conditions, the technology has the potential of saving
considerable conventional energy in a variety of
industrial establishments. Around 5000 sq.m
3
collector area for solar air heating has so far been
installed.
MNES (Ministry of Non-conventional Energy Sources)
recommends only BIS (Bureau of Indian Standards)- approved
solar collectors for government projects and systems installed
under the soft loan scheme. A total collector area of about 1
million sq.m has been installed so far against the estimated
potential of 140 million sq.m of collector area in the country.
Solar thermal systems can play a significant role in
conserving fossil fuels and improving the profit ability of
industries. New and innovative marketing strategies and the
adaptation of new technologies and design techniques are
essential for improving the markets and viability of solar
thermal systems in industries.
2.5.2 SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIC INDUSTRY:
Photovoltaic is a solar power technology that uses
solar cells or solar photovoltaic arrays to convert light from
the sun directly into electricity.
The technical potential of photovoltaic systems is
determined by the solar radiation falling on the module area,
the available areas, and the efficiency with which systems
convert solar radiation into electricity. Presupposing
practicable and economically viable integration of
photovoltaic systems into existing settlement structures, i.e.
the use of roof areas, facades, coverings, noise barriers etc.,
and giving due regard to competing uses of areas for thermal
collectors for hot water and space heating, the available
module area in Germany totals about 700 km² (BMU 2004a).
This delivers a power generation potential of 105
TWh/a, corresponding roughly to one fifth of today’s total
power consumption. This does not take into consideration any
use of open spaces for photovoltaic power generation, which
is quite feasible in principle.
A one kilowatt PV system of 150 kWh per month:
o prevents 150 lbs. of coal from being mined
o prevents 300 lbs. of CO2 from entering the
atmosphere
o keeps 105 gallons of water from being
consumed
o keeps NO and SO2 from being released into
the environment [9]
Theoretically, the entire present energy consumption
of the world could be met by an area of 700 km * 700 km
covered in photovoltaic cells. Economic aspects are the main
obstacle to tapping this potential. The photovoltaic
contribution to power generation is still small compared to that
of other renewable technologies. Despite strong growth in
recent years, the worldwide contribution is still well below
0.01%. The sector is forecast to continue to grow dynamically
in the future. [9]
There are 8 manufacturers of solar cells and 14 of
SPV modules in the country. All of them either manufacture
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single cells/modules. The indigenous production of silicon
wafer is very limited. Most of the cell manufacturers are
importing silicon wafers. As a result of the rapidly growing
international market for pv systems, the supply of wafers has
become difficult, and its cost has gone up. [1]
Currently, India has 264 MW solar PV power
capacity and it ranks 5th in the world. In addition, there
are large number of small-scale manufacturers of various PV
products, i.e. solar home and street lightning systems, solar
lanterns, solar traffic signals, solar torch, solar road studs,
solar blinkers, solar UPS, solar illuminated hoardings, solar
garden lights and street light control systems. [1]
Solar Energy (photovoltaic) prices have declined on
average 4% per annum over the past 15 years. Progressive
increase in conversion efficiencies and manufacturing
economies of scale are the underlying drivers. [6] Currently
photovoltaic technology is suitable for remote site applications
that have small power needs, or small power consuming
applications even where the grid exists. However the falling
prices of PV's over time will make many more applications of
photovoltaic economically competitive in the future. [11]
Nonetheless, in sparsely populated off-grid areas photovoltaic
supply is often more cost-effective than a connection to the
power grid. Consequently, photovoltaic can contribute
substantially to improving quality of life and promoting
sustainable development, particularly in rural areas of
developing countries. [9]
fig: showing component costs of PV system and price
reduction over time [11]
THIN FILM PHOTOVOLTAIC
The world thin-film photovoltaic (TFPV) market is
forecast to reach $7.2 billion by 2015, compared to just over
$1.0 billion today. The market is being driven by the inherent
advantages of TFPV including low cost, low weight, and the
ability to manufacture on flexible substrates and embed solar
power capabilities into walls, roofs and even windows. Unlike
more conventional PV that uses crystalline silicon, TFPV also
has the ability to operate under low light conditions. The
report notes that to support the growing demand for TFPV,
most manufacturers are ramping up production capacity and
several - including First Solar, Fuji Electric, Nanosolar,
4
Sanyo, Uni-Solar and G24i - are building plants with more
than 100 MW in capacity.
The use of TFPV will increase,
1. Because worldwide energy prices are rising fast
and PV prices are falling fast, PV will carve off a
big slice of the energy market. Because TFPV
costs less than conventional PV, TFPV is most
likely to take off first. Just a few years ago,
TFPV was only five percent of the entire PV
market, but it is expected to account for 35
percent of the photovoltaic market by 2020. PV
also offers predictable pricing, something that
fossil fuels cannot do.
2. Conventional PV is expensive to make. By
contrast TFPV can be manufactured using simple
printing or other R2R machines; the value of
printed TFPV is expected to reach just over $3.0
billion by 2020. Printing PV has the potential for
lowering capital costs by as much as 75 percent,
reducing waste and increasing throughput.
3. Since TFPV is much lighter than conventional
PV and can be more easily applied to curved and
non-planar surfaces, TFPV is easier to install on
roofs and walls. Where a lot of panels need to be
installed on a roof, using TF PV reduces the
likelihood that the roof will have to be specially
reinforced. TFPV also enables windows that
double as PV panels, making PV much more
practical for buildings large and small.
4. PV based on organic materials offers hope for
the future. Organic PV is more ecologically
friendly than other PV approaches. Efficiencies
of organic PV are improving rapidly and new
cell architectures promise that the performance
of organic PV devices could come close to or
possibly even exceed those of their purely
inorganic counterparts. By 2020, shipments of
organic PV are predicted to be around 500 MW.
[10]
2.5.3. SOLAR THERMAL POWER PLANTS
Power generation in solar thermal power plants
requires high levels of direct solar radiation, as only this can
be concentrated optically. This necessitates a high number of
sunshine hours as well as solar irradiance that is only rarely
reduced by clouds or haze. Such conditions prevail in warmer
climate zones. Consequently areas such as the southern
Mediterranean region are particularly suited to this
technology.
The annual solar power output of such plants
amounts to about 200-300 GWh/km² land area. Theoretically,
a covered area of about 45 km x 45 km (corresponding to
0.03% of the suitable areas in North Africa) could meet the
entire electricity requirement of Germany (BMU 2004).
Attention is thus now focussing on how the potential in
countries south of Europe can be used for Europe. The
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interconnected European grid would need to be reinforced,
and the solar power plants would need to be connected to this
grid by high-voltage lines. Under the precondition of dynamic
market take-up of solar thermal power plants, Germany might
be able to use imported solar power by the year 2020. Overall
costs, including transmission costs, are expected to run to
about 0.10 Euro/kWh (BMU 2004a).
Both Europe and North Africa could profit from the
construction of such power plants. Europe could tap cost-
effective renewable energy sources, which would also make it
easier to meet its climate protection commitments. North
Africa could profit from the export of solar power, while at the
same time using the waste heat of the power plants for
seawater desalination, thus easing the mounting scarcity of
freshwater in the region. These initiatives taken by European
countries and North Africa have set an example for the rest of
the world too.
2.6 CONSTRAINTS OF SOLAR POWER:
The following are points are the limitations of the solar
power, which rather gives us a picture as to what should be
done to extract its complete use so that the energy demands by
2020 can be fulfilled.
• Lack of awareness about solar technologies: barring a
few large manufacturers, solar thermal system
manufacturers, solar thermal system-manufacturing
firms are dominated by small, individually owned
companies. These companies, as well as the major
manufacturing companies, are concentrating their
efforts on solar water-heating systems for domestic
applications. Most of these manufacturers do not
have adequate marketing budgets and focused
marketing for industrial systems. Awareness and
marketing campaigns targeting industries are required
to overcome this barrier.
• Lack of large scale solar system design skills: Most
of the Indian companies use “rule of thumb”
practices to design solar systems. For large-capacity
industrial systems, these methods are not sufficient.
Advanced software packages are available, which
could be used to optimize the solar systems designs.
• Site constraints such as the non-availability of space
for installation of solar collectors are a major
drawback. However, new upcoming industries can
plan to accommodate solar systems on their roofs or
on the façade of their buildings.
• Lack of suitable proven technologies: besides
efficient solar collectors, efficient storage and control
technologies are also required. These technologies
are however, yet to be developed.
2.7 SOLAR POTENTIAL
The sun delivers about 7000 times more energy than
we currently consume globally. We have around 4 billion
hectares of land in the world, which is not used for anything.
Even if we used only 1% of unused land area we could
produce nearly 4 times more electricity than we produce using
fossil fuels and nuclear power. With better efficiency of solar
5
cells and a higher average irradiance we could produce more
electricity. [7]
Solar energy will become economically competitive in the
next decade or so and supply a significant amount of the
world's power after 2020. At present, solar power costs are
about double the price of power generated by other energy
sources, but that will change over time. Such a forecast
expects the future price of fossil fuels to rise as well as an
eventual economy of scale for solar technology as it becomes
more widespread.
2.8 THE GLOBAL SOLAR THERMAL MARKET
New opportunities are opening up for solar thermal
power as a result of the global drive for clean energy
solutions. Both national and international initiatives are
supporting the technology, encouraging the commercialization
of production. The Concentrating Solar Power Global Market
Initiative was launched in October 2003. A number of
countries have introduced legislation that forces power
suppliers to source a rising percentage of their supply from
renewable fuels. Bulk power, high voltage transmission lines
from high-insulation sites, such as in northern Africa, could
encourage European utilities to finance large solar plants,
power from which would be utilized in Europe. These and
other factors have led to significant consideration of plant
construction in the Sunbelt regions of the world. In addition,
interest rates have drastically fallen worldwide, increasing the
viability of capital-intensive renewable energy projects. The
'race to be first' in this sector is demonstrated by the range of
specific, large solar thermal projects currently planned. These
include:
• Algeria - 140 MW ISCC plant with 35 MW solar capacity
• Australia - 35 MW compact linear Fresnel reflector (CLFR)-
based array to preheat steam at a 2000 MW coal-fired
plant
• Egypt - 127 MW ISCC plant with 29 MW solar capacity
• Greece - 50 MW solar capacity using steam cycle
• India - 140 MW ISCC plant with 35 MW solar capacity
• Israel - 100 MW solar hybrid operations
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• Italy - 40 MW solar capacity using steam cycle
• Mexico - 300 MW ISCC plant with 29 MW solar capacity
• Morocco - 230 MW ISCC plant with 26 MW solar capacity
• Spain - two, 50 MW solar capacity using steam cycle and
storage in solar-only mode
• US - 50 MW solar capacity using steam cycle; 1 MW
parabolic trough using Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) engine
[8]
The Overall projection for solar thermal power, to 2020 is as
shown in the table [8]:
2.9 THE FUTURE FOR SOLAR THERMAL POWER
A scenario prepared by Greenpeace International and
the European Solar Thermal Power Industry Association
(ESTIA) projects what could be achieved by the year 2020
given the right market conditions. This scenario is based on
expected advances in solar thermal technology, coupled with
the growing number of countries supporting projects in order
to achieve both climate change and power supply objectives.
Over the period encompassed by the scenario, it is predicted
that solar thermal technology will have emerged from a
relatively marginal position in the hierarchy of renewable
energy sources to achieve a more substantial status, alongside
the current market leaders such as hydro and wind power.
From a current level of just 354 MW, the total installed
capacity of solar thermal power plants will have passed 5000
MW by 2020, according to the Greenpeace-ESTIA
projections. By 2020, additional capacity would be rising at a
level of almost 4500 MW each year. Other notable features of
the scenario include the following:
• By 2020, the total installed capacity of solar thermal power
around the world will have reached 21,540 MW
• Solar thermal power will have achieved an annual output of
more than 54,000,000 MWh (54 TWh) - equivalent to the
consumption of over one third of Australia's electricity
demand;
• Capital investment in solar thermal plant will rise from
US$375 million in 2005 to almost $5.4 billion in 2020;
• The total invested over the scenario period would amount to
$41.8 billion;
• expansion in the solar thermal power industry will result in
the creation of 200,000 jobs worldwide, even excluding those
involved in production of the hardware;
6
• The five most promising countries (in terms of governmental
targets or potentials), according to the scenario, are Spain, the
US, Mexico, Australia and South Africa, each with more than
1000 MW of solar thermal projects expected by 2020
• over the period up to 2020, a total of 154 million tonnes of
CO2 emissions into the atmosphere would be prevented,
making an important contribution to international climate
protection targets.
A further projection is also made for the potential expansion
of the solar thermal power market over the subsequent two
decades, up to 2040. [12]
3.0 CONCLUSION:
Looking at the present day scenario, the problem of huge
power demand in 2020 can be very easily tackled, provided
the world utilizes the abundant renewable energy available,
specially the solar energy, as its available easily in most parts
of the world. Many developed countries like Japan, Germany
and North America, have started exploiting and developing the
solar resource and thereby, have set up a good example for the
developing and the backward countries to follow the same. By
doing so, most of the demands of energy can be easily met,
thus saving our country, or rather the world from an economic
crisis.
4.0 REFERENCES:
[1] Akshay urja, vol 2, issue 1 (jan-feb 2006)
[2] Survey of energy conservation in India 2006
[3] http://ecomall.com/greenshopping/solarequal.htm
[4] longbets.org/76
[5] http://www.californiagreensolutions.com/cgi-
bin/gt/tpl.h,content=639
[6] http://www.solarbuzz.com/FastFactsIndustry.htm
[7] http://home.iprimus.com.au/nielsens/solen.html
[8] solar thermal plant 2020 report.
[9] http://assets.panda.org/downloads/solarfact.doc
[10] http://www.californiagreensolutions.com/cgi-
bin/gt/tpl.h,content=770
[11] http://www.rise.org.au/info/Applic/Solarpump/index.html
[12] hand book-solar thermal in 2020
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