Professional Documents
Culture Documents
IMF’s
Recovery
Outlook
The
IMF
reported
Monday
that
they
expect
growth
throughout
2011
to
be
more
laggard
than
expected
in
the
beginning
of
the
year,
highlighting
macro-‐risks
that
developed
and
developing
nations
alike
must
reform
in
order
to
ensure
a
recovery
that
is
supported
by
more
than
“hallow
legs.”
The
IMF
drew
on
key
concerns,
including
$150/bbl
crude
oil
and
European
debt
contagion,
as
major
hindrances
to
reclaiming
pre-‐recession
prices
levels.
“Unless
the
U.S.
soon
begins
earnestly
getting
its
fiscal
house
in
order,
China
lets
the
yuan
appreciate
at
a
faster
pace
and
European
and
emerging
nations
implement
ambitious
economic
restructuring,
"little
progress
will
be
made
with
respect
to
rebalancing
and
the
recovery
will
stand
on
increasingly
hollow
legs,"
the
IMF
warned,”
(WSJ).
Uncertainty
over
the
future
of
Europe’s
debt
restructuring
plan
and
the
United
States’
near/medium-‐term
debt/deficit
reduction
agreement
has
increased
market
volatility
and
left
currency
markets
confused
on
how
to
handle
the
EU
rate
hike,
Japanese
liquidity
injection,
and
the
end
of
the
US
QE2.
Above
are
the
EUR/JPY,
USD/JPY,
and
EUR/USD.
The
general
trend
favors
the
EUR
and
disfavors
the
JPY
above
all.
Most
confusion
comes
from
the
near-term
uncertainty
over
the
strength
of
the
USD.
Equities
US
equities
have
traded
throughout
2011
on
a
mix
of
speculative
bullish
euphoria
and
real
bearish
news
out
of
the
Middle
East
and
Japan.
Overarching
all
of
the
trading
is
unusually
low
trading
volume,
hinting
at
uncertainty.
Above
is
the
Dow
Jones
Industrial
Average
starting
in
pre-recession
2007.
We
are
currently
breaking
through
2008
highs,
but
much
resistance
at
these
levels,
and
low
volume
of
trading
does
not
sit
well
with
the
bulls
or
bears.
The
first-quarter
earnings
season
will
either
make
or
break
the
near-term
bullish
trend
in
US
equities.
The
13,000
level
is
an
important
resistance
level
to
reach
and
break
through
for
the
DJIA.
Monday
marked
the
unofficial
start
of
first-‐quarter
“earnings
season”
with
Alcoa
Inc.
(AA)
missing
revenue
targets.
Mitigating
their
loss
is
the
recognition
of
rising
aluminum
prices
and
the
prospect
of
increased
aluminum
demand
for
the
recovering
US
and
international
auto
industry,
which
was
badly
high
by
the
2008
recession.
Alcoa
cites
that
they
are
forced
to
accept
unrealized
profit
due
to
the
fact
that
they
pay
costs
in
local
currencies
(Australia
the
largest),
and
a
depreciating
US
dollar
forces
them
to
pay
a
premium
for
these
costs.
They
expect
aluminum
demand
to
increase
12%
throughout
2011,
which
should
elevate
stock
prices
in
the
interim.
Above
is
a
chart
of
copper,
Alcoa
(AA),
and
aluminum.
They
have
all
been
trending
upwards
since
the
summer
of
2010
(QE2),
and
major
prices
moves
usually
mirror
themselves
throughout
the
group.
Copper
(JJC),
a
proxy
for
international
industrial
demand,
has
seen
its
prices
mirror
the
probability
of
an
increase
in
copper
demand
off
of
the
global
recovery.
Copper
prices
took
a
large
hit
in
March
off
of
the
Middle
East
conflicts
and
the
Japanese
earthquake,
both
which
threaten
to
derail
the
economic
recovery
and
diminish
demand
for
the
base-metal.
Aluminum
(JJU),
a
proxy
for
automotive
demand,
has
seen
a
steadier
rise
since
QE2
started
in
the
summer
of
2010.
This
mirrors
the
sentiment
that
the
auto-industry
will
eventually
turn
around
and
the
fear
of
aluminum
shortages
this
year,
but
steady
prices
on
low
volume
indicate
that
aluminum
will
need
to
sequester
more
bulls
and
bullish
sentiment
before
it
makes
serious
moves
towards
the
upside.
April
12,
2011
Crude
oil
prices
broke
to
the
downside
of
$106
off
of
a
possible
cease-‐fire
in
oil-‐rich
Libya,
an
IMF
downgrade
on
the
US
and
Japanese
2011
growth
prospects,
and
high
oil
prices
curbing
world
demand
for
crude
oil,
as
the
speculative
international
recovery
loses
some
steam.
It
is
becoming
clear
that
the
oil
market
is
over
bought
and
overreacted
to
Middle
East
news.
There
is
spare
capacity
to
make
up
for
any
lost
supplies
due
to
the
Middle
East
conflict,
and
as
international
growth
targets
continue
to
be
cut
by
the
IMF
and
banks
around
the
world
(US
2011
growth
3%,
to
2.9%,
and
most
recently
2.8%),
it
looks
like
aggregate
world
demand
will
not
exceed
the
world’s
supply.
njb