Oil Price and Rigs 1

West Texas Intermeduate crude oil prices and U.S. Average Weekly Rig Count
Sources:
Price Platt's Oilgram SUMMARY OUTPUT
Rigs Baker Hughes, Inc.
Regression Statistics
Date Price/BBL Rig Count Multiple R 75.19%
1/7/1983 31.25 2723 R Square 56.53%
1/14/1983 31.00 2636 Adjusted R Square 56.47%
1/21/1983 32.50 2538 Standard Error 385.70054337
1/28/1983 29.50 2456 Observations 751
2/4/1983 29.00 2335
2/11/1983 29.50 2223 ANOVA
2/18/1983 29.10 2147 df SS
2/25/1983 29.35 2064 Regression 1 144,896,202
3/4/1983 28.60 2043 Residual 749 111,424,917
3/11/1983 28.85 2014 Total 750 256,321,119
3/18/1983 28.50 2000
3/25/1983 28.70 1956 Coefficients Standard Error
4/1/1983 29.50 1882 Intercept (678.28) 59.67
4/8/1983 30.25 1834 Price/BBL 84.30 2.70
4/15/1983 30.75 1807
4/22/1983 30.75 1860
Interpretation:
4/29/1983 30.75 1913
5/6/1983 30.25 1948 The hypothesized model is: Rig Count = Intercept + Beta (Price/BBL) + Random
5/13/1983 29.75 1924
5/20/1983 29.80 1946 In other words, we are conjecturing that the oil price affects the number of rigs in
5/27/1983 30.10 1899 oil prices rise so would the rig count (a positive relationship).
6/3/1983 30.45 1959
6/10/1983 30.70 1986 Our resulting model is: Rig Count = -678.28 + 84.30 (Price/BBL) + Random Erro
6/17/1983 31.45 1989
The positive slope coefficient for oil prices (84.30) does indicate a positive relatio
6/24/1983 31.20 1981 that each $1 increase in the price of oil will lead to an additional 84.30 rigs being
7/1/1983 31.40 2018 statistically significant. Its t-statistic is greater than 2 and the p-value is essentia
7/8/1983 31.35 2016 reasonably good at 56.47% for a very simple model. Also, note that the F-statist
7/15/1983 31.85 2043 model) is very high at 973.99. Its p-value is also essentially 0.
7/22/1983 31.65 2078
7/29/1983 31.75 2114 Is this the best possible model? Hardly. We haven't allowed for the lagged impa
put rigs into service, plus nobody would want to if they didn't expect prices to rem
8/5/1983 32.25 2140
potential variables which could significantly improve the model (such as oil inven
8/12/1983 32.05 2168
8/19/1983 31.90 2174
8/26/1983 31.65 2185
9/2/1983 31.65 2210
9/9/1983 31.35 2247
9/16/1983 31.40 2280
9/23/1983 31.35 2269
9/30/1983 30.55 2312
10/7/1983 30.15 2387
### 30.60 2383
### 30.45 2418
### 30.40 2409
11/4/1983 30.40 2473

Page 1
 Oil Price and Rigs 1

### 30.30 2556

### 29.60 2593
### 29.70 2667
12/2/1983 29.35 2704
12/9/1983 29.15 2746
### 29.25 2800
### 28.90 2870
### 29.55 2710
1/6/1984 29.55 2724
1/13/1984 29.50 2675
1/20/1984 30.00 2654
1/27/1984 30.30 2569
2/3/1984 30.20 2516
2/10/1984 29.90 2474
2/17/1984 29.95 2391
2/24/1984 30.25 2310
3/2/1984 30.60 2277
3/9/1984 30.80 2260
3/16/1984 30.88 2237
3/23/1984 30.65 2206
3/30/1984 30.70 2074
4/6/1984 30.80 2062
4/13/1984 30.75 2107
4/20/1984 30.50 2156
4/27/1984 30.45 2199
5/4/1984 30.20 2200
5/11/1984 30.35 2270
5/18/1984 30.75 2315
5/25/1984 30.50 2322
6/1/1984 30.80 2328
6/8/1984 30.55 2361
6/15/1984 30.13 2360
6/22/1984 29.28 2401
6/29/1984 29.45 2367
7/6/1984 29.60 2374
7/13/1984 29.20 2389
7/20/1984 28.50 2415
7/27/1984 27.85 2397
8/3/1984 28.50 2417
8/10/1984 29.25 2447
8/17/1984 29.10 2409
8/24/1984 29.50 2395
8/31/1984 29.50 2424
9/7/1984 29.00 2377
9/14/1984 29.35 2438
9/21/1984 29.30 2441
9/28/1984 29.53 2452
10/5/1984 29.43 2487
### 29.29 2506
### 27.35 2511

Page 2
 Oil Price and Rigs 1

### 28.48 2503

11/2/1984 28.73 2554
11/9/1984 28.63 2597
### 28.33 2683
### 27.68 2682
### 27.43 2686
12/7/1984 27.73 2728
### 26.55 2787
### 26.05 2650
### 26.45 2576
1/4/1985 25.83 2556
1/11/1985 25.77 2453
1/18/1985 25.67 2370
1/25/1985 25.38 2303
2/1/1985 26.38 2271
2/8/1985 27.21 2175
2/15/1985 27.88 2162
2/22/1985 27.70 2143
3/1/1985 26.70 2011
3/8/1985 27.95 1934
3/15/1985 28.20 1937
3/22/1985 29.25 1939
3/29/1985 28.25 1910
4/5/1985 28.80 1898
4/12/1985 28.95 1860
4/19/1985 29.00 1862
4/26/1985 28.40 1855
5/3/1985 27.40 1841
5/10/1985 27.55 1901
5/17/1985 27.90 1869
5/24/1985 28.00 1848
5/31/1985 27.65 1821
6/7/1985 27.05 1851
6/14/1985 27.40 1854
6/21/1985 27.20 1907
6/28/1985 27.10 1904
7/5/1985 26.90 1910
7/12/1985 26.90 1931
7/19/1985 27.45 1908
7/26/1985 27.90 1890
8/2/1985 27.20 1911
8/9/1985 27.30 1928
8/16/1985 28.00 1945
8/23/1985 28.15 1940
8/30/1985 27.85 1932
9/6/1985 28.00 1917
9/13/1985 28.00 1912
9/20/1985 28.05 1955
9/27/1985 28.90 1935
10/4/1985 29.30 1934

Page 3
 Oil Price and Rigs 1

### 28.95 1906

### 29.50 1839
### 30.05 1838
11/1/1985 30.35 1864
11/8/1985 30.35 1895
### 31.35 1942
### 31.65 1946
### 30.70 1962
12/6/1985 28.85 1911
### 27.20 1983
### 26.70 1995
### 26.20 1898
1/3/1986 25.55 1915
1/10/1986 25.90 1880
1/17/1986 24.10 1773
1/24/1986 19.65 1671
1/31/1986 19.65 1594
2/7/1986 16.40 1496
2/14/1986 16.45 1376
2/21/1986 14.15 1308
2/28/1986 13.90 1248
3/7/1986 13.15 1212
3/14/1986 12.60 1137
3/21/1986 12.75 1063
3/28/1986 12.00 1034
4/4/1986 11.70 987
4/11/1986 13.45 917
4/18/1986 11.80 865
4/25/1986 13.75 855
5/2/1986 13.75 828
5/9/1986 15.75 809
5/16/1986 15.65 757
5/23/1986 16.30 729
5/30/1986 14.50 723
6/6/1986 13.20 686
6/13/1986 13.65 698
6/20/1986 13.75 720
6/27/1986 13.10 697
7/4/1986 11.95 672
7/11/1986 11.20 663
7/18/1986 12.35 692
7/25/1986 11.00 716
8/1/1986 11.10 721
8/8/1986 15.30 734
8/15/1986 15.40 738
8/22/1986 15.15 727
8/29/1986 15.80 731
9/5/1986 16.20 736
9/12/1986 14.95 740
9/19/1986 14.55 764

Page 4
 Oil Price and Rigs 1

9/26/1986 13.95 806

10/3/1986 15.35 818
### 15.05 814
### 14.50 813
### 14.85 829
### 15.00 860
11/7/1986 15.05 874
### 15.50 910
### 15.05 952
### 14.65 954
12/5/1986 15.20 954
### 15.50 954
### 16.05 969
### 16.65 988
1/2/1987 17.95 962
1/9/1987 18.53 916
1/16/1987 19.10 886
1/23/1987 18.75 837
1/30/1987 18.65 826
2/6/1987 18.55 802
2/13/1987 17.95 806
2/20/1987 17.45 839
2/27/1987 16.75 801
3/6/1987 17.70 766
3/13/1987 18.35 761
3/20/1987 18.60 784
3/27/1987 18.60 748
4/3/1987 18.90 752
4/10/1987 18.55 749
4/17/1987 18.45 750
4/24/1987 18.90 765
5/1/1987 18.70 780
5/8/1987 19.10 767
5/15/1987 19.50 744
5/22/1987 19.95 762
5/29/1987 19.25 758
6/5/1987 19.80 757
6/12/1987 19.85 814
6/19/1987 20.50 800
6/26/1987 20.00 813
7/3/1987 20.40 872
7/10/1987 21.20 891
7/17/1987 22.35 922
7/24/1987 21.00 917
7/31/1987 21.35 973
8/7/1987 21.10 983
8/14/1987 20.80 998
8/21/1987 19.55 1012
8/28/1987 19.65 1049
9/4/1987 19.45 1099

Page 5
 Oil Price and Rigs 1

9/11/1987 19.65 1109

9/18/1987 19.55 1101
9/25/1987 19.60 1094
10/2/1987 19.60 1127
10/9/1987 19.60 1104
### 19.75 1134
### 20.00 1130
### 19.95 1131
11/6/1987 19.00 1141
### 18.90 1174
### 18.55 1152
### 18.55 1161
12/4/1987 18.85 1152
### 18.50 1181
### 16.00 1168
### 16.30 1145
1/1/1988 16.90 1121
1/8/1988 17.35 1102
1/15/1988 17.10 1054
1/22/1988 17.25 1026
1/29/1988 16.95 964
2/5/1988 17.15 986
2/12/1988 17.10 968
2/19/1988 16.45 978
2/26/1988 15.95 983
3/4/1988 15.45 978
3/11/1988 16.00 946
3/18/1988 16.30 943
3/25/1988 16.70 935
4/1/1988 17.05 941
4/8/1988 17.00 916
4/15/1988 18.25 904
4/22/1988 18.30 908
4/29/1988 17.95 880
5/6/1988 17.35 897
5/13/1988 17.45 883
5/20/1988 17.40 892
5/27/1988 17.55 905
6/3/1988 17.65 898
6/10/1988 17.05 889
6/17/1988 16.60 905
6/24/1988 15.75 894
7/1/1988 15.15 921
7/8/1988 15.80 926
7/15/1988 14.75 899
7/22/1988 16.30 903
7/29/1988 16.10 894
8/5/1988 15.15 945
8/12/1988 15.75 940
8/19/1988 15.50 937

Page 6
 Oil Price and Rigs 1

8/26/1988 15.35 935

9/2/1988 15.10 933
9/9/1988 14.50 938
9/16/1988 14.95 921
9/23/1988 14.60 917
9/30/1988 13.75 918
10/7/1988 12.65 914
### 13.65 925
### 14.95 933
### 13.70 923
11/4/1988 13.70 942
### 14.00 897
### 13.25 923
### 14.40 911
12/2/1988 15.35 905
12/9/1988 15.45 922
### 15.80 930
### 17.30 940
### 16.75 908
1/6/1989 17.25 872
1/13/1989 17.85 840
1/20/1989 18.90 789
1/27/1989 17.80 797
2/3/1989 17.50 780
2/10/1989 17.50 746
2/17/1989 17.75 766
2/24/1989 18.55 757
3/3/1989 18.30 761
3/10/1989 18.55 743
3/17/1989 19.30 740
3/24/1989 20.05 766
3/31/1989 20.45 779
4/7/1989 20.10 778
4/14/1989 20.45 758
4/21/1989 22.15 767
4/28/1989 20.90 751
5/5/1989 20.35 764
5/12/1989 19.80 771
5/19/1989 20.35 737
5/26/1989 21.20 749
6/2/1989 19.80 784
6/9/1989 20.15 791
6/16/1989 19.95 795
6/23/1989 20.00 810
6/30/1989 20.05 817
7/7/1989 20.45 825
7/14/1989 20.45 820
7/21/1989 20.20 830
7/28/1989 18.85 870
8/4/1989 18.20 874

Page 7
 Oil Price and Rigs 1

8/11/1989 18.20 858

8/18/1989 18.70 903
8/25/1989 19.05 909
9/1/1989 18.55 936
9/8/1989 19.15 950
9/15/1989 19.80 965
9/22/1989 19.70 967
9/29/1989 19.50 978
10/6/1989 20.05 960
### 20.20 981
### 20.65 992
### 19.75 1010
11/3/1989 19.95 1042
### 20.00 1045
### 19.70 1040
### 20.20 1037
12/1/1989 19.60 1062
12/8/1989 20.35 1058
### 20.65 1079
### 21.70 1061
### 21.40 1042
1/5/1990 22.95 1029
1/12/1990 22.55 1019
1/19/1990 22.65 964
1/26/1990 22.95 937
2/2/1990 22.65 931
2/9/1990 22.55 899
2/16/1990 22.15 918
2/23/1990 21.95 897
3/2/1990 21.55 894
3/9/1990 21.20 923
3/16/1990 20.25 908
3/23/1990 19.70 893
3/30/1990 20.30 946
4/6/1990 20.10 937
4/13/1990 18.30 934
4/20/1990 17.50 932
4/27/1990 18.80 927
5/4/1990 18.45 930
5/11/1990 18.50 941
5/18/1990 19.25 972
5/25/1990 17.45 1001
6/1/1990 17.85 983
6/8/1990 16.95 991
6/15/1990 17.15 999
6/22/1990 15.85 1021
6/29/1990 17.20 1020
7/6/1990 16.85 1011
7/13/1990 17.20 1001
7/20/1990 18.70 1022

Page 8
 Oil Price and Rigs 1

7/27/1990 20.35 996

8/3/1990 21.20 966
8/10/1990 26.70 992
8/17/1990 26.80 987
8/24/1990 29.85 1002
8/31/1990 27.90 1012
9/7/1990 29.50 1039
9/14/1990 30.80 1060
9/21/1990 33.35 1055
9/28/1990 38.00 1047
10/5/1990 36.75 1064
### 39.50 1056
### 37.90 1089
### 31.40 1107
11/2/1990 34.60 1144
11/9/1990 33.95 1124
### 32.25 1103
### 30.20 1175
### 32.35 1175
12/7/1990 28.30 1179
### 26.35 1151
### 27.45 1089
### 27.20 1086
1/4/1991 27.00 1108
1/11/1991 26.95 1048
1/18/1991 28.15 1065
1/25/1991 22.90 1051
2/1/1991 21.45 996
2/8/1991 21.20 997
2/15/1991 22.35 977
2/22/1991 19.95 967
3/1/1991 18.45 949
3/8/1991 19.80 948
3/15/1991 19.70 908
3/22/1991 20.30 911
3/29/1991 19.75 910
4/5/1991 19.60 881
4/12/1991 20.50 874
4/19/1991 21.55 835
4/26/1991 21.15 824
5/3/1991 21.20 805
5/10/1991 21.70 802
5/17/1991 20.95 818
5/24/1991 21.10 846
5/31/1991 21.25 824
6/7/1991 20.85 850
6/14/1991 20.00 871
6/21/1991 20.00 866
6/28/1991 20.15 881
7/5/1991 20.70 859

Page 9
 Oil Price and Rigs 1

7/12/1991 21.25 844

7/19/1991 21.80 828
7/26/1991 21.50 845
8/2/1991 21.45 831
8/9/1991 21.45 796
8/16/1991 21.50 797
8/23/1991 21.90 792
8/30/1991 21.90 799
9/6/1991 20.50 798
9/13/1991 21.50 758
9/20/1991 21.75 770
9/27/1991 22.10 775
10/4/1991 22.40 786
### 22.95 796
### 23.65 797
### 23.65 801
11/1/1991 23.20 793
11/8/1991 23.65 796
### 22.60 803
### 22.25 828
### 21.30 822
12/6/1991 20.85 814
### 19.60 802
### 19.55 797
### 18.70 770
1/3/1992 19.00 764
1/10/1992 18.60 732
1/17/1992 18.70 716
1/24/1992 18.75 686
1/31/1992 19.10 653
2/7/1992 19.20 674
2/14/1992 19.60 661
2/21/1992 18.60 667
2/28/1992 18.55 673
3/6/1992 18.55 660
3/13/1992 18.65 649
3/20/1992 19.15 643
3/27/1992 19.20 639
4/3/1992 19.50 658
4/10/1992 20.35 648
4/17/1992 20.15 639
4/24/1992 20.10 623
5/1/1992 20.50 634
5/8/1992 20.90 635
5/15/1992 20.80 652
5/22/1992 20.45 638
5/29/1992 21.70 629
6/5/1992 22.25 610
6/12/1992 22.45 596
6/19/1992 22.25 632

Page 10
 Oil Price and Rigs 1

6/26/1992 22.60 645

7/3/1992 22.05 648
7/10/1992 21.60 667
7/17/1992 21.50 689
7/24/1992 21.85 688
7/31/1992 22.00 690
8/7/1992 21.45 709
8/14/1992 21.15 678
8/21/1992 21.40 689
8/28/1992 21.25 668
9/4/1992 21.55 706
9/11/1992 21.90 687
9/18/1992 22.20 720
9/25/1992 21.80 755
10/2/1992 21.70 756
10/9/1992 21.85 787
### 22.25 803
### 21.80 830
### 21.05 838
11/6/1992 20.65 853
### 20.45 885
### 20.45 890
### 20.15 899
12/4/1992 19.65 914
### 19.00 930
### 19.25 935
### 19.80 928
1/1/1993 19.75 922
1/8/1993 19.15 903
1/15/1993 18.65 838
1/22/1993 18.70 794
1/29/1993 19.60 762
2/5/1993 20.15 720
2/12/1993 20.20 698
2/19/1993 19.60 656
2/26/1993 20.10 663
3/5/1993 20.65 620
3/12/1993 20.55 600
3/19/1993 20.25 614
3/26/1993 19.90 610
4/2/1993 20.40 627
4/9/1993 20.50 615
4/16/1993 20.35 603
4/23/1993 19.95 608
4/30/1993 20.35 609
5/7/1993 20.50 617
5/14/1993 20.25 619
5/21/1993 19.40 641
5/28/1993 19.90 671
6/4/1993 20.00 686

Page 11
 Oil Price and Rigs 1

6/11/1993 19.60 711

6/18/1993 18.80 681
6/25/1993 18.50 702
7/2/1993 18.80 732
7/9/1993 18.00 713
7/16/1993 17.80 720
7/23/1993 17.45 765
7/30/1993 18.15 776
8/6/1993 17.75 776
8/13/1993 17.75 793
8/20/1993 17.85 805
8/27/1993 18.40 822
9/3/1993 18.30 834
9/10/1993 17.20 835
9/17/1993 16.90 856
9/24/1993 17.60 866
10/1/1993 18.20 856
10/8/1993 18.40 856
### 18.60 860
### 18.20 860
### 17.65 870
11/5/1993 17.25 870
### 16.75 872
### 16.80 857
### 16.55 871
12/3/1993 15.35 876
### 14.70 868
### 14.55 883
### 14.25 843
### 14.20 814
1/7/1994 14.95 807
1/14/1994 14.75 792
1/21/1994 15.05 778
1/28/1994 15.30 778
2/4/1994 15.80 752
2/11/1994 15.05 764
2/18/1994 14.20 752
2/25/1994 14.40 747
3/4/1994 14.60 743
3/11/1994 14.25 733
3/18/1994 14.75 743
3/25/1994 15.15 725
4/1/1994 14.55 732
4/8/1994 15.50 709
4/15/1994 15.90 720
4/22/1994 16.75 732
4/29/1994 17.20 730
5/6/1994 17.00 719
5/13/1994 17.90 722
5/20/1994 18.10 697

Page 12
 Oil Price and Rigs 1

5/27/1994 18.35 727

6/3/1994 18.20 742
6/10/1994 18.20 752
6/17/1994 19.20 769
6/24/1994 20.05 761
7/1/1994 19.10 766
7/8/1994 19.40 768
7/15/1994 20.10 773
7/22/1994 19.45 779
7/29/1994 19.50 771
8/5/1994 20.30 771
8/12/1994 19.15 753
8/19/1994 17.95 772
8/26/1994 17.30 768
9/2/1994 17.40 784
9/9/1994 17.65 782
9/16/1994 17.10 804
9/23/1994 17.20 836
9/30/1994 17.70 838
10/7/1994 18.20 828
### 17.70 828
### 17.30 819
### 17.70 813
11/4/1994 18.60 824
### 18.45 833
### 17.65 839
### 17.55 842
12/2/1994 18.00 827
12/9/1994 16.95 841
### 16.95 807
### 17.05 813
### 17.55 791
1/6/1995 17.60 766
1/13/1995 17.60 757
1/20/1995 18.25 736
1/27/1995 18.45 731
2/3/1995 18.30 724
2/10/1995 18.45 706
2/17/1995 18.40 724
2/24/1995 18.80 696
3/3/1995 18.50 684
3/10/1995 18.45 675
3/17/1995 18.10 667
3/24/1995 18.60 652
3/31/1995 19.00 648
4/7/1995 19.70 669
4/14/1995 19.70 676
4/21/1995 19.95 685
4/28/1995 20.30 680
5/5/1995 20.25 664

Page 13
 Oil Price and Rigs 1

5/12/1995 19.90 689

5/19/1995 19.90 673
5/26/1995 19.60 690
6/2/1995 18.80 677
6/9/1995 19.10 674
6/16/1995 18.90 670
6/23/1995 18.05 684
6/30/1995 17.70 666
7/7/1995 17.35 714
7/14/1995 17.30 720
7/21/1995 17.25 719
7/28/1995 17.30 739
8/4/1995 17.65 732
8/11/1995 17.80 739
8/18/1995 17.60 744
8/25/1995 18.70 763
9/1/1995 18.25 772
9/8/1995 18.35 766
9/15/1995 18.60 759
9/22/1995 18.65 775
9/29/1995 17.45 755
10/6/1995 17.40 754
### 17.25 763
### 17.50 765
### 17.50 761
11/3/1995 17.70 764
### 17.80 769
### 18.20 779
### 18.20 774
12/1/1995 18.30 773
12/8/1995 18.65 772
### 18.90 765
### 19.25 762
### 19.30 745
1/5/1996 19.80 711
1/12/1996 19.60 704
1/19/1996 18.50 716
1/26/1996 18.75 703
2/2/1996 17.60 693
2/9/1996 17.75 695
2/16/1996 18.55 707
2/23/1996 20.90 705
3/1/1996 19.85 707
3/8/1996 19.70 719
3/15/1996 20.35 693
3/22/1996 22.95 725
3/29/1996 22.20 728
4/5/1996 22.20 725
4/12/1996 23.65 735
4/19/1996 24.40 747

Page 14
 Oil Price and Rigs 1

4/26/1996 24.10 757

5/3/1996 21.50 749
5/10/1996 21.05 772
5/17/1996 21.20 757
5/24/1996 22.25 775
5/31/1996 20.90 765
6/7/1996 19.95 781
6/14/1996 20.10 773
6/21/1996 21.15 765
6/28/1996 21.30 774
7/5/1996 21.30 782
7/12/1996 21.60 788
7/19/1996 21.95 790
7/26/1996 21.25 774
8/2/1996 20.40 801
8/9/1996 21.30 809
8/16/1996 22.05 805
8/23/1996 22.65 828
8/30/1996 21.85 812
9/6/1996 23.15 790
9/13/1996 24.30 808
9/20/1996 23.65 825
9/27/1996 24.20 822
10/4/1996 24.40 819
### 25.00 827
### 25.25 845
### 25.35 853
11/1/1996 24.30 839
11/8/1996 22.80 838
### 23.80 849
### 24.00 851
### 24.65 861
12/6/1996 25.10 856
### 24.50 841
### 25.70 858
### 26.55 851
1/3/1997 25.50 845
1/10/1997 26.20 825
1/17/1997 25.55 818
1/24/1997 24.65 815
1/31/1997 24.20 807
2/7/1997 23.85 833
2/14/1997 22.25 860
2/21/1997 22.40 863
2/28/1997 21.10 840
3/7/1997 20.50 882
3/14/1997 20.65 885
3/21/1997 21.60 905
3/28/1997 21.15 915
4/4/1997 20.15 918

Page 15
 Oil Price and Rigs 1

4/11/1997 19.35 913

4/18/1997 19.65 885
4/25/1997 19.95 889
5/2/1997 20.10 881
5/9/1997 19.85 913
5/16/1997 21.25 917
5/23/1997 21.65 948

"Source: West Texas intermediate crude oil prices data are from Platt's Oilgram"
" P rice Report."

Page 16
 Oil Price and Rigs 1

MS F Significance F
144,896,202 973.99 1.23908E-137
148,765

t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%

(11.37) 9.76074E-28 (795.41) (561.15)
31.21 1.2391E-137 79.00 89.60

ntercept + Beta (Price/BBL) + Random Error

e oil price affects the number of rigs in use. Specifically, we would expect that as
sitive relationship).

8 + 84.30 (Price/BBL) + Random Error (Numbers rounded)

(84.30) does indicate a positive relationship as expected. Specifically, it suggests

l lead to an additional 84.30 rigs being put into service. This coefficient is highly
ater than 2 and the p-value is essentially 0. Additionally, note that the R-square is
ple model. Also, note that the F-statistic (to judge the effectiveness of the overall
is also essentially 0.

We haven't allowed for the lagged impact of oil prices (it probably takes awhile to
ant to if they didn't expect prices to remain high). We also have ignored all other
y improve the model (such as oil inventories, the level of demand, etc).

Page 17
 Oil Price and Rigs 2

This is the same data as used previously. This worksheet shows how
to use the Solver to do regression analysis.

West Texas Intermeduate crude oil prices and U.S. Average Weekly Rig Count
Sources:
Price Platt's Oilgram
Rigs Baker Hughes, Inc. Regression Model
Intercept -678.27893256
Date Price/BBL Rig Count Model Error Slope 84.299155845
1/7/1983 31.25 2723 -766.9303124 SSE 111,424,917
1/14/1983 31.00 2636 -701.0051014
1/21/1983 32.50 2538 -476.5563676
1/28/1983 29.50 2456 -647.4538351
2/4/1983 29.00 2335 -568.603413
2/11/1983 29.50 2223 -414.4538351
2/18/1983 29.10 2147 -372.1734975
2/25/1983 29.35 2064 -268.0987085
3/4/1983 28.60 2043 -310.3230754
3/11/1983 28.85 2014 -260.2482864
3/18/1983 28.50 2000 -275.752991
3/25/1983 28.70 1956 -214.8931598
4/1/1983 29.50 1882 -73.45383512
4/8/1983 30.25 1834 37.77053176
4/15/1983 30.75 1807 106.9201097
4/22/1983 30.75 1860 53.92010969
4/29/1983 30.75 1913 0.920109686
5/6/1983 30.25 1948 -76.22946824
5/13/1983 29.75 1924 -94.37904616
5/20/1983 29.80 1946 -112.1640884
5/27/1983 30.10 1899 -39.87434161
6/3/1983 30.45 1959 -70.36963707
6/10/1983 30.70 1986 -76.29484811
6/17/1983 31.45 1989 -16.07048122
6/24/1983 31.20 1981 -29.14527018
7/1/1983 31.40 2018 -49.28543901
7/8/1983 31.35 2016 -51.50039681
7/15/1983 31.85 2043 -36.35081888
7/22/1983 31.65 2078 -88.21065005
7/29/1983 31.75 2114 -115.7807345
8/5/1983 32.25 2140 -99.63115655
8/12/1983 32.05 2168 -144.4909877
8/19/1983 31.90 2174 -163.1358611
8/26/1983 31.65 2185 -195.2106501
9/2/1983 31.65 2210 -220.2106501
9/9/1983 31.35 2247 -282.5003968
9/16/1983 31.40 2280 -311.285439
9/23/1983 31.35 2269 -304.5003968
9/30/1983 30.55 2312 -414.9397215

Page 18
 Oil Price and Rigs 2

10/7/1983 30.15 2387 -523.6593838

10/14/1983 30.60 2383 -481.7247637
10/21/1983 30.45 2418 -529.3696371
10/28/1983 30.40 2409 -524.5845949
11/4/1983 30.40 2473 -588.5845949
11/11/1983 30.30 2556 -680.0145104
11/18/1983 29.60 2593 -776.0239195
11/25/1983 29.70 2667 -841.594004
12/2/1983 29.35 2704 -908.0987085
12/9/1983 29.15 2746 -966.9585397
12/16/1983 29.25 2800 -1012.528624
12/23/1983 28.90 2870 -1112.033329
12/30/1983 29.55 2710 -897.2388773
1/6/1984 29.55 2724 -911.2388773
1/13/1984 29.50 2675 -866.4538351
1/20/1984 30.00 2654 -803.3042572
1/27/1984 30.30 2569 -693.0145104
2/3/1984 30.20 2516 -648.444426
2/10/1984 29.90 2474 -631.7341728
2/17/1984 29.95 2391 -544.519215
2/24/1984 30.25 2310 -438.2294682
3/2/1984 30.60 2277 -375.7247637
3/9/1984 30.80 2260 -341.8649325
3/16/1984 30.88 2237 -312.1210001
3/23/1984 30.65 2206 -300.5098059
3/30/1984 30.70 2074 -164.2948481
4/6/1984 30.80 2062 -143.8649325
4/13/1984 30.75 2107 -193.0798903
4/20/1984 30.50 2156 -263.1546793
4/27/1984 30.45 2199 -310.3696371
5/4/1984 30.20 2200 -332.444426
5/11/1984 30.35 2270 -389.7995527
5/18/1984 30.75 2315 -401.0798903
5/25/1984 30.50 2322 -429.1546793
6/1/1984 30.80 2328 -409.8649325
6/8/1984 30.55 2361 -463.9397215
6/15/1984 30.13 2360 -498.3453669
6/22/1984 29.28 2401 -610.9996494
6/29/1984 29.45 2367 -562.6687929
7/6/1984 29.60 2374 -557.0239195
7/13/1984 29.20 2389 -605.7435819
7/20/1984 28.50 2415 -690.752991
7/27/1984 27.85 2397 -727.5474423
8/3/1984 28.50 2417 -692.752991
8/10/1984 29.25 2447 -659.5286241
8/17/1984 29.10 2409 -634.1734975
8/24/1984 29.50 2395 -586.4538351
8/31/1984 29.50 2424 -615.4538351
9/7/1984 29.00 2377 -610.603413
9/14/1984 29.35 2438 -642.0987085

Page 19
 Oil Price and Rigs 2

9/21/1984 29.30 2441 -649.3136663

9/28/1984 29.53 2452 -640.9248604
10/5/1984 29.43 2487 -684.354776
10/12/1984 29.29 2506 -715.1566578
10/19/1984 27.35 2511 -883.6970202
10/26/1984 28.48 2503 -780.4389741
11/2/1984 28.73 2554 -810.3641851
11/9/1984 28.63 2597 -861.7941007
11/16/1984 28.33 2683 -973.0838475
11/23/1984 27.68 2682 -1026.878299
11/30/1984 27.43 2686 -1051.953088
12/7/1984 27.73 2728 -1068.663341
12/14/1984 26.55 2787 -1227.136345
12/21/1984 26.05 2650 -1132.285923
12/28/1984 26.45 2576 -1024.56626
1/4/1985 25.83 2556 -1056.831737
1/11/1985 25.77 2453 -958.8896864
1/18/1985 25.67 2370 -884.319602
1/25/1985 25.38 2303 -841.7663572
2/1/1985 26.38 2271 -725.4672014
2/8/1985 27.21 2175 -559.498902
2/15/1985 27.88 2162 -490.0184676
2/22/1985 27.70 2143 -486.1923156
3/1/1985 26.70 2011 -438.4914715
3/8/1985 27.95 1934 -256.1175267
3/15/1985 28.20 1937 -238.0427377
3/22/1985 29.25 1939 -151.5286241
3/29/1985 28.25 1910 -206.8277799
4/5/1985 28.80 1898 -148.4632442
4/12/1985 28.95 1860 -97.81837084
4/19/1985 29.00 1862 -95.60341304
4/26/1985 28.40 1855 -139.1829065
5/3/1985 27.40 1841 -209.4820624
5/10/1985 27.55 1901 -256.837189
5/17/1985 27.90 1869 -195.3324845
5/24/1985 28.00 1848 -165.9025689
5/31/1985 27.65 1821 -168.4072734
6/7/1985 27.05 1851 -248.9867669
6/14/1985 27.40 1854 -222.4820624
6/21/1985 27.20 1907 -292.3418936
6/28/1985 27.10 1904 -297.7718091
7/5/1985 26.90 1910 -320.6316403
7/12/1985 26.90 1931 -341.6316403
7/19/1985 27.45 1908 -272.2671046
7/26/1985 27.90 1890 -216.3324845
8/2/1985 27.20 1911 -296.3418936
8/9/1985 27.30 1928 -304.911978
8/16/1985 28.00 1945 -262.9025689
8/23/1985 28.15 1940 -245.2576955
8/30/1985 27.85 1932 -262.5474423

Page 20
 Oil Price and Rigs 2

9/6/1985 28.00 1917 -234.9025689

9/13/1985 28.00 1912 -229.9025689
9/20/1985 28.05 1955 -268.6876111
9/27/1985 28.90 1935 -177.0333286
10/4/1985 29.30 1934 -142.3136663
10/11/1985 28.95 1906 -143.8183708
10/18/1985 29.50 1839 -30.45383512
10/25/1985 30.05 1838 16.91070059
11/1/1985 30.35 1864 16.20044735
11/8/1985 30.35 1895 -14.79955265
11/15/1985 31.35 1942 22.49960319
11/22/1985 31.65 1946 43.78934995
11/29/1985 30.70 1962 -52.29484811
12/6/1985 28.85 1911 -157.2482864
12/13/1985 27.20 1983 -368.3418936
12/20/1985 26.70 1995 -422.4914715
12/27/1985 26.20 1898 -367.6410494
1/3/1986 25.55 1915 -439.4355007
1/10/1986 25.90 1880 -374.9307962
1/17/1986 24.10 1773 -419.6692767
1/24/1986 19.65 1671 -692.8005202
1/31/1986 19.65 1594 -615.8005202
2/7/1986 16.40 1496 -791.7727767
2/14/1986 16.45 1376 -667.5578189
2/21/1986 14.15 1308 -793.4458773
2/28/1986 13.90 1248 -754.5206663
3/7/1986 13.15 1212 -781.7450332
3/14/1986 12.60 1137 -753.1095689
3/21/1986 12.75 1063 -666.4646955
3/28/1986 12.00 1034 -700.6890624
4/4/1986 11.70 987 -678.9788092
4/11/1986 13.45 917 -461.4552864
4/18/1986 11.80 865 -548.5488936
4/25/1986 13.75 855 -374.1655397
5/2/1986 13.75 828 -347.1655397
5/9/1986 15.75 809 -159.567228
5/16/1986 15.65 757 -115.9971436
5/23/1986 16.30 729 -33.20269228
5/30/1986 14.50 723 -178.9411728
6/6/1986 13.20 686 -251.5300754
6/13/1986 13.65 698 -225.5954553
6/20/1986 13.75 720 -239.1655397
6/27/1986 13.10 697 -270.959991
7/4/1986 11.95 672 -342.9040202
7/11/1986 11.20 663 -397.1283871
7/18/1986 12.35 692 -329.1843579
7/25/1986 11.00 716 -466.9882183
8/1/1986 11.10 721 -463.5583027
8/8/1986 15.30 734 -122.5018481
8/15/1986 15.40 738 -118.0719325

Page 21
 Oil Price and Rigs 2

8/22/1986 15.15 727 -128.1467215

8/29/1986 15.80 731 -77.3522702
9/5/1986 16.20 736 -48.63260786
9/12/1986 14.95 740 -158.0065527
9/19/1986 14.55 764 -215.726215
9/26/1986 13.95 806 -308.3057085
10/3/1986 15.35 818 -202.2868903
10/10/1986 15.05 814 -223.5766371
10/17/1986 14.50 813 -268.9411728
10/24/1986 14.85 829 -255.4364683
10/31/1986 15.00 860 -273.7915949
11/7/1986 15.05 874 -283.5766371
11/14/1986 15.50 910 -281.642017
11/21/1986 15.05 952 -361.5766371
11/28/1986 14.65 954 -397.2962994
12/5/1986 15.20 954 -350.9317637
12/12/1986 15.50 954 -325.642017
12/19/1986 16.05 969 -294.2774812
12/26/1986 16.65 988 -262.6979877
1/2/1987 17.95 962 -127.1090851
1/9/1987 18.53 916 -32.21557474
1/16/1987 19.10 886 45.83494409
1/23/1987 18.75 837 65.33023954
1/30/1987 18.65 826 67.90032396
2/6/1987 18.55 802 83.47040837
2/13/1987 17.95 806 28.89091487
2/20/1987 17.45 839 -46.25866306
2/27/1987 16.75 801 -67.26807215
3/6/1987 17.70 766 47.81612591
3/13/1987 18.35 761 107.6105772
3/20/1987 18.60 784 105.6853662
3/27/1987 18.60 748 141.6853662
4/3/1987 18.90 752 162.9751129
4/10/1987 18.55 749 136.4704084
4/17/1987 18.45 750 127.0404928
4/24/1987 18.90 765 149.9751129
5/1/1987 18.70 780 118.1152818
5/8/1987 19.10 767 164.8349441
5/15/1987 19.50 744 221.5546064
5/22/1987 19.95 762 241.4892266
5/29/1987 19.25 758 186.4798175
6/5/1987 19.80 757 233.8443532
6/12/1987 19.85 814 181.059311
6/19/1987 20.50 800 249.8537623
6/26/1987 20.00 813 194.7041843
7/3/1987 20.40 872 169.4238467
7/10/1987 21.20 891 217.8631714
7/17/1987 22.35 922 283.8072006
7/24/1987 21.00 917 175.0033402
7/31/1987 21.35 973 148.5080447

Page 22
 Oil Price and Rigs 2

8/7/1987 21.10 983 117.4332558

8/14/1987 20.80 998 77.14350903
8/21/1987 19.55 1012 -42.23043578
8/28/1987 19.65 1049 -70.8005202
9/4/1987 19.45 1099 -137.6603514
9/11/1987 19.65 1109 -130.8005202
9/18/1987 19.55 1101 -131.2304358
9/25/1987 19.60 1094 -120.015478
10/2/1987 19.60 1127 -153.015478
10/9/1987 19.60 1104 -130.015478
10/16/1987 19.75 1134 -147.3706046
10/23/1987 20.00 1130 -122.2958157
10/30/1987 19.95 1131 -127.5107734
11/6/1987 19.00 1141 -217.5949715
11/13/1987 18.90 1174 -259.0248871
11/20/1987 18.55 1152 -266.5295916
11/27/1987 18.55 1161 -275.5295916
12/4/1987 18.85 1152 -241.2398449
12/11/1987 18.50 1181 -299.7445494
12/18/1987 16.00 1168 -497.492439
12/25/1987 16.30 1145 -449.2026923
1/1/1988 16.90 1121 -374.6231988
1/8/1988 17.35 1102 -317.6885786
1/15/1988 17.10 1054 -290.7633676
1/22/1988 17.25 1026 -250.1184942
1/29/1988 16.95 964 -213.408241
2/5/1988 17.15 986 -218.5484098
2/12/1988 17.10 968 -204.7633676
2/19/1988 16.45 978 -269.5578189
2/26/1988 15.95 983 -316.7073968
3/4/1988 15.45 978 -353.8569747
3/11/1988 16.00 946 -275.492439
3/18/1988 16.30 943 -247.2026923
3/25/1988 16.70 935 -205.4830299
4/1/1988 17.05 941 -181.9783254
4/8/1988 17.00 916 -161.1932832
4/15/1988 18.25 904 -43.81933838
4/22/1988 18.30 908 -43.60438059
4/29/1988 17.95 880 -45.10908513
5/6/1988 17.35 897 -112.6885786
5/13/1988 17.45 883 -90.25866306
5/20/1988 17.40 892 -103.4736208
5/27/1988 17.55 905 -103.8287475
6/3/1988 17.65 898 -88.39883189
6/10/1988 17.05 889 -129.9783254
6/17/1988 16.60 905 -183.9129455
6/24/1988 15.75 894 -244.567228
7/1/1988 15.15 921 -322.1467215
7/8/1988 15.80 926 -272.3522702
7/15/1988 14.75 899 -333.8663838

Page 23
 Oil Price and Rigs 2

7/22/1988 16.30 903 -207.2026923

7/29/1988 16.10 894 -215.0625234
8/5/1988 15.15 945 -346.1467215
8/12/1988 15.75 940 -290.567228
8/19/1988 15.50 937 -308.642017
8/26/1988 15.35 935 -319.2868903
9/2/1988 15.10 933 -338.3616793
9/9/1988 14.50 938 -393.9411728
9/16/1988 14.95 921 -339.0065527
9/23/1988 14.60 917 -364.5112572
9/30/1988 13.75 918 -437.1655397
10/7/1988 12.65 914 -525.8946111
10/14/1988 13.65 925 -452.5954553
10/21/1988 14.95 933 -351.0065527
10/28/1988 13.70 923 -446.3804975
11/4/1988 13.70 942 -465.3804975
11/11/1988 14.00 897 -395.0907507
11/18/1988 13.25 923 -484.3151176
11/25/1988 14.40 911 -375.3710884
12/2/1988 15.35 905 -289.2868903
12/9/1988 15.45 922 -297.8569747
12/16/1988 15.80 930 -276.3522702
12/23/1988 17.30 940 -159.9035364
12/30/1988 16.75 908 -174.2680721
1/6/1989 17.25 872 -96.11849422
1/13/1989 17.85 840 -13.53900072
1/20/1989 18.90 789 125.9751129
1/27/1989 17.80 797 25.24604149
2/3/1989 17.50 780 16.95629474
2/10/1989 17.50 746 50.95629474
2/17/1989 17.75 766 52.0310837
2/24/1989 18.55 757 128.4704084
3/3/1989 18.30 761 103.3956194
3/10/1989 18.55 743 142.4704084
3/17/1989 19.30 740 208.6947753
3/24/1989 20.05 766 245.9191421
3/31/1989 20.45 779 266.6388045
4/7/1989 20.10 778 238.1340999
4/14/1989 20.45 758 287.6388045
4/21/1989 22.15 767 421.9473694
4/28/1989 20.90 751 332.5734246
5/5/1989 20.35 764 273.2088889
5/12/1989 19.80 771 219.8443532
5/19/1989 20.35 737 300.2088889
5/26/1989 21.20 749 359.8631714
6/2/1989 19.80 784 206.8443532
6/9/1989 20.15 791 229.3490577
6/16/1989 19.95 795 208.4892266
6/23/1989 20.00 810 197.7041843
6/30/1989 20.05 817 194.9191421

Page 24
 Oil Price and Rigs 2

7/7/1989 20.45 825 220.6388045

7/14/1989 20.45 820 225.6388045
7/21/1989 20.20 830 194.5640155
7/28/1989 18.85 870 40.76015513
8/4/1989 18.20 874 -18.03429617
8/11/1989 18.20 858 -2.034296172
8/18/1989 18.70 903 -4.884718249
8/25/1989 19.05 909 18.6199863
9/1/1989 18.55 936 -50.52959163
9/8/1989 19.15 950 -13.95009812
9/15/1989 19.80 965 25.84435318
9/22/1989 19.70 967 15.4144376
9/29/1989 19.50 978 -12.44539357
10/6/1989 20.05 960 51.91914214
10/13/1989 20.20 981 43.56401552
10/20/1989 20.65 992 70.49863565
10/27/1989 19.75 1010 -23.37060461
11/3/1989 19.95 1042 -38.51077344
11/10/1989 20.00 1045 -37.29581565
11/17/1989 19.70 1040 -57.5855624
11/24/1989 20.20 1037 -12.43598448
12/1/1989 19.60 1062 -88.01547799
12/8/1989 20.35 1058 -20.7911111
12/15/1989 20.65 1079 -16.50136435
12/22/1989 21.70 1061 90.01274929
12/29/1989 21.40 1042 83.72300253
1/5/1990 22.95 1029 227.3866941
1/12/1990 22.55 1019 203.6670318
1/19/1990 22.65 964 267.0969473
1/26/1990 22.95 937 319.3866941
2/2/1990 22.65 931 300.0969473
2/9/1990 22.55 899 323.6670318
2/16/1990 22.15 918 270.9473694
2/23/1990 21.95 897 275.0875382
3/2/1990 21.55 894 244.3678759
3/9/1990 21.20 923 185.8631714
3/16/1990 20.25 908 120.7789733
3/23/1990 19.70 893 89.4144376
3/30/1990 20.30 946 86.9939311
4/6/1990 20.10 937 79.13409993
4/13/1990 18.30 934 -69.60438059
4/20/1990 17.50 932 -135.0437053
4/27/1990 18.80 927 -20.45480266
5/4/1990 18.45 930 -52.95950721
5/11/1990 18.50 941 -59.74454942
5/18/1990 19.25 972 -27.52018253
5/25/1990 17.45 1001 -208.2586631
6/1/1990 17.85 983 -156.5390007
6/8/1990 16.95 991 -240.408241
6/15/1990 17.15 999 -231.5484098

Page 25
 Oil Price and Rigs 2

6/22/1990 15.85 1021 -363.1373124

6/29/1990 17.20 1020 -248.333452
7/6/1990 16.85 1011 -268.8381566
7/13/1990 17.20 1001 -229.333452
7/20/1990 18.70 1022 -123.8847182
7/27/1990 20.35 996 41.2088889
8/3/1990 21.20 966 142.8631714
8/10/1990 26.70 992 580.5085285
8/17/1990 26.80 987 593.9384441
8/24/1990 29.85 1002 836.0508694
8/31/1990 27.90 1012 661.6675155
9/7/1990 29.50 1039 769.5461649
9/14/1990 30.80 1060 858.1350675
9/21/1990 33.35 1055 1078.097915
9/28/1990 38.00 1047 1478.08899
10/5/1990 36.75 1064 1355.715045
10/12/1990 39.50 1056 1595.537723
10/19/1990 37.90 1089 1427.659074
10/26/1990 31.40 1107 861.714561
11/2/1990 34.60 1144 1094.47186
11/9/1990 33.95 1124 1059.677408
11/16/1990 32.25 1103 937.3688435
11/23/1990 30.20 1175 692.555574
11/30/1990 32.35 1175 873.798759
12/7/1990 28.30 1179 528.3871779
12/14/1990 26.35 1151 392.003824
12/21/1990 27.45 1089 546.7328954
12/28/1990 27.20 1086 528.6581064
1/4/1991 27.00 1108 489.7982753
1/11/1991 26.95 1048 545.5833175
1/18/1991 28.15 1065 629.7423045
1/25/1991 22.90 1051 201.1717363
2/1/1991 21.45 996 133.9379603
2/8/1991 21.20 997 111.8631714
2/15/1991 22.35 977 228.8072006
2/22/1991 19.95 967 36.48922656
3/1/1991 18.45 949 -71.95950721
3/8/1991 19.80 948 42.84435318
3/15/1991 19.70 908 74.4144376
3/22/1991 20.30 911 121.9939311
3/29/1991 19.75 910 76.62939539
4/5/1991 19.60 881 92.98452201
4/12/1991 20.50 874 175.8537623
4/19/1991 21.55 835 303.3678759
4/26/1991 21.15 824 280.6482136
5/3/1991 21.20 805 303.8631714
5/10/1991 21.70 802 349.0127493
5/17/1991 20.95 818 269.7883824
5/24/1991 21.10 846 254.4332558
5/31/1991 21.25 824 289.0781292

Page 26
 Oil Price and Rigs 2

6/7/1991 20.85 850 229.3584668

6/14/1991 20.00 871 136.7041843
6/21/1991 20.00 866 141.7041843
6/28/1991 20.15 881 139.3490577
7/5/1991 20.70 859 207.7135934
7/12/1991 21.25 844 269.0781292
7/19/1991 21.80 828 331.4426649
7/26/1991 21.50 845 289.1529181
8/2/1991 21.45 831 298.9379603
8/9/1991 21.45 796 333.9379603
8/16/1991 21.50 797 337.1529181
8/23/1991 21.90 792 375.8725805
8/30/1991 21.90 799 368.8725805
9/6/1991 20.50 798 251.8537623
9/13/1991 21.50 758 376.1529181
9/20/1991 21.75 770 385.2277071
9/27/1991 22.10 775 409.7324116
10/4/1991 22.40 786 424.0221584
10/11/1991 22.95 796 460.3866941
10/18/1991 23.65 797 518.3961032
10/25/1991 23.65 801 514.3961032
11/1/1991 23.20 793 484.4614831
11/8/1991 23.65 796 519.3961032
11/15/1991 22.60 803 423.8819895
11/22/1991 22.25 828 369.377285
11/29/1991 21.30 822 295.2930869
12/6/1991 20.85 814 265.3584668
12/13/1991 19.60 802 171.984522
12/20/1991 19.55 797 172.7695642
12/27/1991 18.70 770 128.1152818
1/3/1992 19.00 764 159.4050285
1/10/1992 18.60 732 157.6853662
1/17/1992 18.70 716 182.1152818
1/24/1992 18.75 686 216.3302395
1/31/1992 19.10 653 278.8349441
2/7/1992 19.20 674 266.2648597
2/14/1992 19.60 661 312.984522
2/21/1992 18.60 667 222.6853662
2/28/1992 18.55 673 212.4704084
3/6/1992 18.55 660 225.4704084
3/13/1992 18.65 649 244.900324
3/20/1992 19.15 643 293.0499019
3/27/1992 19.20 639 301.2648597
4/3/1992 19.50 658 307.5546064
4/10/1992 20.35 648 389.2088889
4/17/1992 20.15 639 381.3490577
4/24/1992 20.10 623 393.1340999
5/1/1992 20.50 634 415.8537623
5/8/1992 20.90 635 448.5734246
5/15/1992 20.80 652 423.143509

Page 27
 Oil Price and Rigs 2

5/22/1992 20.45 638 407.6388045

5/29/1992 21.70 629 522.0127493
6/5/1992 22.25 610 587.377285
6/12/1992 22.45 596 618.2371162
6/19/1992 22.25 632 565.377285
6/26/1992 22.60 645 581.8819895
7/3/1992 22.05 648 532.5174538
7/10/1992 21.60 667 475.5828337
7/17/1992 21.50 689 445.1529181
7/24/1992 21.85 688 475.6576227
7/31/1992 22.00 690 486.302496
8/7/1992 21.45 709 420.9379603
8/14/1992 21.15 678 426.6482136
8/21/1992 21.40 689 436.7230025
8/28/1992 21.25 668 445.0781292
9/4/1992 21.55 706 432.3678759
9/11/1992 21.90 687 480.8725805
9/18/1992 22.20 720 473.1623272
9/25/1992 21.80 755 404.4426649
10/2/1992 21.70 756 395.0127493
10/9/1992 21.85 787 376.6576227
10/16/1992 22.25 803 394.377285
10/23/1992 21.80 830 329.4426649
10/30/1992 21.05 838 258.218298
11/6/1992 20.65 853 209.4986356
11/13/1992 20.45 885 160.6388045
11/20/1992 20.45 890 155.6388045
11/27/1992 20.15 899 121.3490577
12/4/1992 19.65 914 64.1994798
12/11/1992 19.00 930 -6.594971496
12/18/1992 19.25 935 9.479817466
12/25/1992 19.80 928 62.84435318
1/1/1993 19.75 922 64.62939539
1/8/1993 19.15 903 33.04990188
1/15/1993 18.65 838 55.90032396
1/22/1993 18.70 794 104.1152818
1/29/1993 19.60 762 211.984522
2/5/1993 20.15 720 300.3490577
2/12/1993 20.20 698 326.5640155
2/19/1993 19.60 656 317.984522
2/26/1993 20.10 663 353.1340999
3/5/1993 20.65 620 442.4986356
3/12/1993 20.55 600 454.0687201
3/19/1993 20.25 614 414.7789733
3/26/1993 19.90 610 389.2742688
4/2/1993 20.40 627 414.4238467
4/9/1993 20.50 615 434.8537623
4/16/1993 20.35 603 434.2088889
4/23/1993 19.95 608 395.4892266
4/30/1993 20.35 609 428.2088889

Page 28
 Oil Price and Rigs 2

5/7/1993 20.50 617 432.8537623

5/14/1993 20.25 619 409.7789733
5/21/1993 19.40 641 316.1246908
5/28/1993 19.90 671 328.2742688
6/4/1993 20.00 686 321.7041843
6/11/1993 19.60 711 262.984522
6/18/1993 18.80 681 225.5451973
6/25/1993 18.50 702 179.2554506
7/2/1993 18.80 732 174.5451973
7/9/1993 18.00 713 126.1058727
7/16/1993 17.80 720 102.2460415
7/23/1993 17.45 765 27.74133694
7/30/1993 18.15 776 75.75074604
8/6/1993 17.75 776 42.0310837
8/13/1993 17.75 793 25.0310837
8/20/1993 17.85 805 21.46099928
8/27/1993 18.40 822 50.825535
9/3/1993 18.30 834 30.39561941
9/10/1993 17.20 835 -63.33345202
9/17/1993 16.90 856 -109.6231988
9/24/1993 17.60 866 -60.61378968
10/1/1993 18.20 856 -0.034296172
10/8/1993 18.40 856 16.825535
10/15/1993 18.60 860 29.68536617
10/22/1993 18.20 860 -4.034296172
10/29/1993 17.65 870 -60.39883189
11/5/1993 17.25 870 -94.11849422
11/12/1993 16.75 872 -138.2680721
11/19/1993 16.80 857 -119.0531144
11/26/1993 16.55 871 -154.1279033
12/3/1993 15.35 876 -260.2868903
12/10/1993 14.70 868 -307.0813416
12/17/1993 14.55 883 -334.726215
12/24/1993 14.25 843 -320.0159618
12/31/1993 14.20 814 -295.2309196
1/7/1994 14.95 807 -225.0065527
1/14/1994 14.75 792 -226.8663838
1/21/1994 15.05 778 -187.5766371
1/28/1994 15.30 778 -166.5018481
2/4/1994 15.80 752 -98.3522702
2/11/1994 15.05 764 -173.5766371
2/18/1994 14.20 752 -233.2309196
2/25/1994 14.40 747 -211.3710884
3/4/1994 14.60 743 -190.5112572
3/11/1994 14.25 733 -210.0159618
3/18/1994 14.75 743 -177.8663838
3/25/1994 15.15 725 -126.1467215
4/1/1994 14.55 732 -183.726215
4/8/1994 15.50 709 -80.64201695
4/15/1994 15.90 720 -57.92235462

Page 29
 Oil Price and Rigs 2

4/22/1994 16.75 732 1.731927853

4/29/1994 17.20 730 41.66654798
5/6/1994 17.00 719 35.80671681
5/13/1994 17.90 722 108.6759571
5/20/1994 18.10 697 150.5357882
5/27/1994 18.35 727 141.6105772
6/3/1994 18.20 742 113.9657038
6/10/1994 18.20 752 103.9657038
6/17/1994 19.20 769 171.2648597
6/24/1994 20.05 761 250.9191421
7/1/1994 19.10 766 165.8349441
7/8/1994 19.40 768 189.1246908
7/15/1994 20.10 773 243.1340999
7/22/1994 19.45 779 182.3396486
7/29/1994 19.50 771 194.5546064
8/5/1994 20.30 771 261.9939311
8/12/1994 19.15 753 183.0499019
8/19/1994 17.95 772 62.89091487
8/26/1994 17.30 768 12.09646357
9/2/1994 17.40 784 4.526379152
9/9/1994 17.65 782 27.60116811
9/16/1994 17.10 804 -40.7633676
9/23/1994 17.20 836 -64.33345202
9/30/1994 17.70 838 -24.18387409
10/7/1994 18.20 828 27.96570383
10/14/1994 17.70 828 -14.18387409
10/21/1994 17.30 819 -38.90353643
10/28/1994 17.70 813 0.816125906
11/4/1994 18.60 824 65.68536617
11/11/1994 18.45 833 44.04049279
11/18/1994 17.65 839 -29.39883189
11/25/1994 17.55 842 -40.82874747
12/2/1994 18.00 827 12.10587266
12/9/1994 16.95 841 -90.40824098
12/16/1994 16.95 807 -56.40824098
12/23/1994 17.05 813 -53.97832539
12/30/1994 17.55 791 10.17125253
1/6/1995 17.60 766 39.38621032
1/13/1995 17.60 757 48.38621032
1/20/1995 18.25 736 124.1806616
1/27/1995 18.45 731 146.0404928
2/3/1995 18.30 724 140.3956194
2/10/1995 18.45 706 171.0404928
2/17/1995 18.40 724 148.825535
2/24/1995 18.80 696 210.5451973
3/3/1995 18.50 684 197.2554506
3/10/1995 18.45 675 202.0404928
3/17/1995 18.10 667 180.5357882
3/24/1995 18.60 652 237.6853662
3/31/1995 19.00 648 275.4050285

Page 30
 Oil Price and Rigs 2

4/7/1995 19.70 669 313.4144376

4/14/1995 19.70 676 306.4144376
4/21/1995 19.95 685 318.4892266
4/28/1995 20.30 680 352.9939311
5/5/1995 20.25 664 364.7789733
5/12/1995 19.90 689 310.2742688
5/19/1995 19.90 673 326.2742688
5/26/1995 19.60 690 283.984522
6/2/1995 18.80 677 229.5451973
6/9/1995 19.10 674 257.8349441
6/16/1995 18.90 670 244.9751129
6/23/1995 18.05 684 159.3208305
6/30/1995 17.70 666 147.8161259
7/7/1995 17.35 714 70.31142136
7/14/1995 17.30 720 60.09646357
7/21/1995 17.25 719 56.88150578
7/28/1995 17.30 739 41.09646357
8/4/1995 17.65 732 77.60116811
8/11/1995 17.80 739 83.24604149
8/18/1995 17.60 744 61.38621032
8/25/1995 18.70 763 135.1152818
9/1/1995 18.25 772 88.18066162
9/8/1995 18.35 766 102.6105772
9/15/1995 18.60 759 130.6853662
9/22/1995 18.65 775 118.900324
9/29/1995 17.45 755 37.74133694
10/6/1995 17.40 754 34.52637915
10/13/1995 17.25 763 12.88150578
10/20/1995 17.50 765 31.95629474
10/27/1995 17.50 761 35.95629474
11/3/1995 17.70 764 49.81612591
11/10/1995 17.80 769 53.24604149
11/17/1995 18.20 779 76.96570383
11/24/1995 18.20 774 81.96570383
12/1/1995 18.30 773 91.39561941
12/8/1995 18.65 772 121.900324
12/15/1995 18.90 765 149.9751129
12/22/1995 19.25 762 182.4798175
12/29/1995 19.30 745 203.6947753
1/5/1996 19.80 711 279.8443532
1/12/1996 19.60 704 269.984522
1/19/1996 18.50 716 165.2554506
1/26/1996 18.75 703 199.3302395
2/2/1996 17.60 693 112.3862103
2/9/1996 17.75 695 123.0310837
2/16/1996 18.55 707 178.4704084
2/23/1996 20.90 705 378.5734246
3/1/1996 19.85 707 288.059311
3/8/1996 19.70 719 263.4144376
3/15/1996 20.35 693 344.2088889

Page 31
 Oil Price and Rigs 2

3/22/1996 22.95 725 531.3866941

3/29/1996 22.20 728 465.1623272
4/5/1996 22.20 725 468.1623272
4/12/1996 23.65 735 580.3961032
4/19/1996 24.40 747 631.6204701
4/26/1996 24.10 757 596.3307233
5/3/1996 21.50 749 385.1529181
5/10/1996 21.05 772 324.218298
5/17/1996 21.20 757 351.8631714
5/24/1996 22.25 775 422.377285
5/31/1996 20.90 765 318.5734246
6/7/1996 19.95 781 222.4892266
6/14/1996 20.10 773 243.1340999
6/21/1996 21.15 765 339.6482136
6/28/1996 21.30 774 343.2930869
7/5/1996 21.30 782 335.2930869
7/12/1996 21.60 788 354.5828337
7/19/1996 21.95 790 382.0875382
7/26/1996 21.25 774 339.0781292
8/2/1996 20.40 801 240.4238467
8/9/1996 21.30 809 308.2930869
8/16/1996 22.05 805 375.5174538
8/23/1996 22.65 828 403.0969473
8/30/1996 21.85 812 351.6576227
9/6/1996 23.15 790 483.2465253
9/13/1996 24.30 808 562.1905545
9/20/1996 23.65 825 490.3961032
9/27/1996 24.20 822 539.7606389
10/4/1996 24.40 819 559.6204701
10/11/1996 25.00 827 602.1999636
10/18/1996 25.25 845 605.2747525
10/25/1996 25.35 853 605.7046681
11/1/1996 24.30 839 531.1905545
11/8/1996 22.80 838 405.7418207
11/15/1996 23.80 849 479.0409766
11/22/1996 24.00 851 493.9008077
11/29/1996 24.65 861 538.695259
12/6/1996 25.10 856 581.6298792
12/13/1996 24.50 841 546.0503857
12/20/1996 25.70 858 630.2093727
12/27/1996 26.55 851 708.8636551
1/3/1997 25.50 845 626.3495415
1/10/1997 26.20 825 705.3589506
1/17/1997 25.55 818 657.5644993
1/24/1997 24.65 815 584.695259
1/31/1997 24.20 807 554.7606389
2/7/1997 23.85 833 499.2559344
2/14/1997 22.25 860 337.377285
2/21/1997 22.40 863 347.0221584
2/28/1997 21.10 840 260.4332558

Page 32
 Oil Price and Rigs 2

3/7/1997 20.50 882 167.8537623

3/14/1997 20.65 885 177.4986356
3/21/1997 21.60 905 237.5828337
3/28/1997 21.15 915 189.6482136
4/4/1997 20.15 918 102.3490577
4/11/1997 19.35 913 39.90973305
4/18/1997 19.65 885 93.1994798
4/25/1997 19.95 889 114.4892266
5/2/1997 20.10 881 135.1340999
5/9/1997 19.85 913 82.05931097
5/16/1997 21.25 917 196.0781292
5/23/1997 21.65 948 198.7977915

Page 33
 Chart1

3500 45.00

40.00
3000

35.00

2500
30.00

2000
25.00

WTI Price/Bbl
Rig Count
Rigs

Price/BBL
20.00
1500

15.00
1000

10.00

500
5.00

0 0.00
1/14/1983
1/28/1983
2/11/1983
2/25/1983
3/11/1983
3/25/1983
4/22/1983
4/8/1983
5/20/1983
5/6/1983
6/17/1983
6/3/1983
7/15/1983
7/29/1983
7/1/1983
8/12/1983
8/26/1983
10/21/1983
9/23/1983
10/7/1983
9/9/1983
11/18/1983
11/4/1983
12/16/1983
12/30/1983
12/2/1983
1/13/1984
1/27/1984
2/10/1984
2/24/1984
3/23/1984
3/9/1984
4/20/1984
4/6/1984
5/18/1984
5/4/1984
6/15/1984
6/29/1984
6/1/1984
7/13/1984
7/27/1984
8/10/1984
8/24/1984
10/19/1984
9/21/1984
10/5/1984
9/7/1984
11/16/1984
11/30/1984
11/2/1984
12/14/1984
12/28/1984
1/11/1985
1/25/1985
2/22/1985
2/8/1985
3/22/1985
3/8/1985
4/19/1985
4/5/1985
5/17/1985
5/31/1985
5/3/1985
6/14/1985
6/28/1985
7/12/1985
7/26/1985
8/23/1985
8/9/1985
10/18/1985
9/20/1985
10/4/1985
9/6/1985
11/15/1985
11/29/1985
11/1/1985
12/13/1985
12/27/1985
1/10/1986
1/24/1986
2/21/1986
2/7/1986
3/21/1986
3/7/1986
4/18/1986
4/4/1986
5/16/1986
5/30/1986
5/2/1986
6/13/1986
6/27/1986
7/11/1986
7/25/1986
8/22/1986
8/8/1986
10/17/1986
9/19/1986
10/31/1986
10/3/1986
9/5/1986
11/14/1986
11/28/1986
12/12/1986
12/26/1986
1/23/1987
1/9/1987
2/20/1987
2/6/1987
3/20/1987
3/6/1987
4/17/1987
4/3/1987
5/15/1987
5/29/1987
5/1/1987
6/12/1987
6/26/1987
7/10/1987
7/24/1987
8/21/1987
8/7/1987
10/16/1987
9/18/1987
10/30/1987
10/2/1987
9/4/1987
11/13/1987
11/27/1987
12/11/1987
12/25/1987
1/22/1988
1/8/1988
2/19/1988
2/5/1988
3/18/1988
3/4/1988
4/15/1988
4/29/1988
4/1/1988
5/13/1988
5/27/1988
6/10/1988
6/24/1988
7/22/1988
7/8/1988
8/19/1988
8/5/1988
10/14/1988
9/16/1988
10/28/1988
9/30/1988
9/2/1988
11/11/1988
11/25/1988
12/23/1988
12/9/1988
1/20/1989
1/6/1989
2/17/1989
2/3/1989
3/17/1989
3/31/1989
3/3/1989
4/14/1989
4/28/1989
5/12/1989
5/26/1989
6/23/1989
6/9/1989
7/21/1989
7/7/1989
8/18/1989
8/4/1989
10/13/1989
9/15/1989
10/27/1989
9/29/1989
9/1/1989
11/10/1989
11/24/1989
12/22/1989
12/8/1989
1/19/1990
1/5/1990
2/16/1990
2/2/1990
3/16/1990
3/30/1990
3/2/1990
4/13/1990
4/27/1990
5/11/1990
5/25/1990
6/22/1990
6/8/1990
7/20/1990
7/6/1990
8/17/1990
8/31/1990
8/3/1990
10/12/1990
9/14/1990
10/26/1990
9/28/1990
11/23/1990
11/9/1990
12/21/1990
12/7/1990
1/18/1991
1/4/1991
2/15/1991
2/1/1991
3/15/1991
3/29/1991
3/1/1991
4/12/1991
4/26/1991
5/10/1991
5/24/1991
6/21/1991
6/7/1991
7/19/1991
7/5/1991
8/16/1991
8/30/1991
8/2/1991
10/11/1991
9/13/1991
10/25/1991
9/27/1991
11/22/1991
11/8/1991
12/20/1991
12/6/1991
1/17/1992
1/31/1992
1/3/1992
2/14/1992
2/28/1992
3/13/1992
3/27/1992
4/10/1992
4/24/1992
5/22/1992
5/8/1992
6/19/1992
6/5/1992
7/17/1992
7/31/1992
7/3/1992
8/14/1992
8/28/1992
9/11/1992
10/23/1992
9/25/1992
10/9/1992
11/20/1992
11/6/1992
12/18/1992
12/4/1992
1/15/1993
1/29/1993
1/1/1993
2/12/1993
2/26/1993
3/12/1993
3/26/1993
4/23/1993
4/9/1993
5/21/1993
5/7/1993
6/18/1993
6/4/1993
7/16/1993
7/30/1993
7/2/1993
8/13/1993
8/27/1993
9/10/1993
10/22/1993
9/24/1993
10/8/1993
11/19/1993
11/5/1993
12/17/1993
12/31/1993
12/3/1993
1/14/1994
1/28/1994
2/11/1994
2/25/1994
3/11/1994
3/25/1994
4/22/1994
4/8/1994
5/20/1994
5/6/1994
6/17/1994
6/3/1994
7/15/1994
7/29/1994
7/1/1994
8/12/1994
8/26/1994
10/21/1994
9/23/1994
10/7/1994
9/9/1994
11/18/1994
11/4/1994
12/16/1994
12/30/1994
12/2/1994
1/13/1995
1/27/1995
2/10/1995
2/24/1995
3/10/1995
3/24/1995
4/21/1995
4/7/1995
5/19/1995
5/5/1995
6/16/1995
6/30/1995
6/2/1995
7/14/1995
7/28/1995
8/11/1995
8/25/1995
10/20/1995
9/22/1995
10/6/1995
9/8/1995
11/17/1995
11/3/1995
12/15/1995
12/29/1995
12/1/1995
1/12/1996
1/26/1996
2/23/1996
2/9/1996
3/22/1996
3/8/1996
4/19/1996
4/5/1996
5/17/1996
5/31/1996
5/3/1996
6/14/1996
6/28/1996
7/12/1996
7/26/1996
8/23/1996
8/9/1996
10/18/1996
9/20/1996
10/4/1996
9/6/1996
11/15/1996
11/29/1996
11/1/1996
12/13/1996
12/27/1996
1/10/1997
1/24/1997
2/21/1997
2/7/1997
3/21/1997
3/7/1997
4/18/1997
4/4/1997
5/16/1997
5/2/1997

Page 34
 Number of US Oil Rigs vs Price of Oil

3500

This chart would seem to indicate that prices

above $25 (or so) stimulate domestic
3000 production. As it happens, that's a much
talked about level of prices. Many experts
believe that $25 is about the highest price
that OPEC will allow over
f(x) the long-term for x − 678.278932055569
= 84.29916927552
2500
fear that they will lose market share.

2000
Rigs

1500

1000

500

0
5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 40.00 45.00

WTI Price/Bbl