Global Research Limited

Commodity Weekly Report

Commodity
18th April - 23rd April 2011
WEEKLY

PRECIOUS METALS RISES

ON DOLLAR WEAKNESS!

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 Economic Data

Weekly Report

Commodity 18th April - 23rd April 2011

Date Time Currency Economic Data Forecast Previous

Mon 7:30pm USD NAHB Housing Market Index 17 17
Apr 18 8:00pm FOMC Member Fisher Speaks
USD
10:00pm USD FOMC Member Fisher Speaks

Tue 6:00pm USD Building Permits 0.55M 0.52M

Apr 19 6:00pm USD Housing Starts 0.53M 0.48M

Wed 7:30pm USD Existing Home Sales 5.07M 4.88M

Apr 20 8:00pm Crude Oil Inventories
USD 1.6M

Thu 6:00pm USD Unemployment Claims 398K 412K

Apr 21 7:30pm USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 37.2 43.4
7:30pm USD CB Leading Index m/m 0.3% 0.8%
7:30pm USD OFHEO HPI m/m 0.2% -0.3%
8:00pm USD Natural Gas Storage 28B

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 Fundamental Market Overview

Weekly Report

Commodity 18th April - 23rd April 2011

GOLD HITS RECORD, SILVER SURGES ON INFLATION FEAR

Gold rose 1 percent to a record and silver soared on Friday, as inflation worries amid a Crude oil rally and a downgrade of Ireland's sovereign debt
powered bullion toward its fifth consecutive weekly gain. Silver rose to its highest in 31 years on speculative buying and tight supplies, and as
data showing rising U.S. consumer prices prompted investors to buy precious metals. Silver's outperformance over bullion also sent the
Gold/silver ratio below 34 for the first time in nearly 30 years.

Spot Gold rose 0.8 percent to $1,484.10 , having hit a record $1,487.39. U.S. Gold futures for June delivery rose $12.40 to $1,484.80. Silver
gained 1 percent to $42.51. The Gold-to-silver ratio -- showing the relative strength between the two metals -- fell to its lowest since the early
1980s. The small rise in U.S. core inflation, and data showing moderation in long-term inflation expectations may be seen as vindication for
Federal Reserve officials who have viewed the recent energy price spike as having a temporary effect. Gold prices have almost doubled since the
Fed cut interest rates to the bone in 2008 in an attempt to shock the economy back to life after the worst financial crisis since the Great
Depression. Gold also drew support from safe-haven bids on worries over the euro zone financial crisis, after more talk that Greece may be set to
restructure its debt and a Moody's downgrade of Ireland. Among other commodities, U.S. Crude oil rose for a third straight day, as improving
consumer confidence and industrial production boosted the outlook for oil demand. Gold largely ignored news Goldman Sachs had
recommended investors go underweight commodities over a three- to six-month horizon, echoing its call from Monday, saying oil prices were
higher than justified by current supply and demand

OIL RISES ON ROSIER US CONSUMER SENTIMENT, CHINA

Crude Oil rose on Friday, with Brent Crude surging past $123 a barrel, as improving U.S. consumer confidence and industrial production eased
concerns about rising fuel costs. Concerns about the impact of surging fuel on the economic recovery and consuption hit prices earlier in the
week, knocking Brent off 32-month highs. It had risen over $126 a barrel on expectations the conflict in Libya would lead to a prolonged
disruption of the OPEC nation's suppplies. A U.S. government report showed underlying inflation pressures remained contained in March, while a
survey showed April consumer sentiment rose more than expected. Investors have been concerned higher energy and food costs would slow
consumer spending. A gauge of manufacturing in economic powerhouse New York State rose in April to the highest level in a year and
employment improved, the New York Federal Reserve said Friday.

Oil prices have "pushed ahead" of supply and demand fundamentals and near-term downside risk has risen after prices climbed to "exceptionally
high levels," Goldman told clients in the latest note, while it maintained its outlook for rising oil prices over a longer, 12-month horizon, on
growing global fuel demand.

COPPER UNDER PRESSURE AS INFLATION RISES GLOBALLY

Copper closed almost flat on Friday, as the dollar pared gains and data showed improved U.S. consumer sentiment, but investors worried high
inflation in China would lead to monetary tightening and erode demand. Copper for three-month delivery on the London Metal Exchange (LME)
closed at $9,405 a tonne from Thursday's close of $9,410.

Chinese consumer price inflation sped to 5.4 percent in the year to March, the fastest since July 2008 and topping market forecasts for a 5.2
percent increase. Gross domestic product eased a touch in the world's top Copper buyer. "Growth is going to slow down quite significantly, it's
going to be very bumpy." Putting more pressure on metals prices, China's production of refined Copper and primary aluminium rose 23.7 percent
and 7.4 percent respectively from a year earlier in March, hitting monthly records for both metals on expanded capacity and sufficient supply of
raw materials.

Copper inventories at LME warehouses fell 375 tonnes to 450,425 tonnes, a small respite in an upward trend that has seen stocks of the metal used
in power and construction climb by a fifth so far this year.

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 Technical Analysis

Weekly Report

Commodity 18th April - 23rd April 2011

GOLD
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

Levels 1562 1518 1503 1474 1459 1430 1386

Market Overview
COMEX Gold is in an upward phase. Last week COMEX Gold sustains on higher level and
closed near to its week high. In the coming week 1410$ will act as a major support in
COMEX Gold, if COMEX Gold sustains above 1450 $ an ounce then above 1485 $ an ounce
it can touch the level of 1505$ an ounce and if COMEX Gold sustains below 1430$ then it
can slightly correct and test the level of 1410$ an ounce.

Strategy
For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy if COMEX Gold sustains above
1450$ an ounce, then above 1485$ it can test the level of 1505$ an ounce and above
1505$ it can further move upward. Trade by keeping the strict stop losses.

SILVER
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

Levels 4805 4489 4375 4173 4059 3857 3541

Market Overview
COMEX Silver is technically strong on charts. Last week COMEX Silver broke its
psychological level of 4200$ an ounce and closed above that. For the upcoming week
3900$ and 3750$ are the crucial supports and 4380$ and 4600 $ are crucial resistance in
COMEX Silver. In MCX Silver 64500 and 67500 will act as major resistance and 59500 and
57500 will act as major supports.

Strategy
Technically COMEX Silver is strong on charts, For the next week traders can use buy on
lower level strategy if Silver sustains above the level of 4100$ an ounce, then above 4300$
an ounce it can further go upward and can test the level of 4380$ an ounce. Trade by
keeping the proper stop losses.

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 Technical Analysis

Weekly Report

Commodity 18th April - 23rd April 2011

CRUDE OIL
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

Levels 125.76 117.61 113.60 109.46 105.45 101.31 93.16

Market Overview
NYMEX Crude is in upward phase. Last week in Crude oil neither sustain on higher level
nor at lower level. For the coming week 100$ will act as major support and 115 $ a barrel
will be a major resistance. In MCX Crude Oil major resistance is found at 4875 and 4950 and
major supports will be 4600 and 4500.

Strategy
For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy, if NYMEX Crude sustains
above the level of 100 $ a barrel then above 115 $ it can slightly come up and touch the
level of 117.20 $ a barrel and in MCX above 4900 Crude oil can touch the level of 4960 if it
sustains above 4700. Trade by keeping the proper stop loss.

COPPER
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

Levels 494.10 464.00 444.70 434.00 414.65 403.90 373.90

Market Overview
Copper is in an upward consolidation phase and traders should use the strategy of buy on
lower levels. Last week COMEX Copper was down for most part of week. If next week
COMEX Copper sustains above the level of 410 then above the level of 425 Copper can test
the level of 432. In MCX Copper above 420 Copper can test the level of 427 if it does not
break the level of 407 on the downside.

Strategy
For the upcoming week 440 and 455 will act as major resistance and 415 and 400 will act as
major supports in COMEX Copper. For MCX Copper major resistance would be 430 and 440
and supports would be found at 410 and 400.

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 Technical Analysis

Weekly Report

Commodity 18th April - 23rd April 2011

NATURAL GAS
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

Levels 4.699 4.428 4.325 4.157 4.054 3.886 3.615

Market Overview
Natural Gas is in a consolidation phase and traders should use the strategy of buying on
lower levels. Last week Natural Gas was up for most part of the week. If next week Natural
Gas sustains above the level of 4.000 $ then above the level of 4.265$ Natural Gas can test
the level of 4.365 $ and below 3.900$ Natural Gas can slightly go down and test the level of
3.810 $. In MCX, if Natural Gas sustains above190 in the coming week then it can test the
level of 197, if it does not break the level of 177 on the downside.

Strategy
For the upcoming week 3.650$ and 3.200 $ will act as major supports and 4.880$ and
5.200$ will act as major resistance in US Natural Gas. For MCX Natural Gas major resistance
would be 207 and 220, supports would be found at 165 and 150.

USD / INR
Script R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

Levels 45.6330 44.9430 44.6070 44.2530 43.9170 43.5630 42.8730

Market Overview
USD/INR is consolidating on charts so traders can use the strategy of buying on lower
levels. If next week USD/INR sustains above the level of 44.3000 then above the level of
44.6000 USD/INR can test the level of 44.8500 and below 43.8000 USD/INR can slightly go
down and test the level of 43.6000.

Strategy
For the upcoming week 43.8000 and 43.5000 will act as major supports and 45.4000 and
46.0000 will act as major resistance in USD/INR.

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 Weekly Market Update

Weekly Report

Commodity 18th April - 23rd April 2011

Weekly
Exch- Expiry Commodity Previous Qty. Open
Symbol Price Unit Open High Low Close Net TurnOver *
ange Date Name Close Traded Interest
(Rs. in Lakhs)

Gold MCX 4-JUN -11 Gold Rs./ 10gm 21412 21390 21592 21137 21571 130686 159 10659 3068325.79

Silver MCX 5-MAY-11 Silver RS./ KG. 60483 60650 62840 58880 62390 525161 1907 13682 11762437.15

Copper MCX 29-APR-11 Copper RS./ KG. 443.15 442 443.5 416 417 453337 -26.15 28590 2489111.13

Crude Oil MCX 19-APR-11 Crude Oil RS./ BBL. 5087 5050 5063 4755 4908 88130 -235 6689 4206898.98

Natural Gas MCX 26-APR-11 Natural Gas RS./ MM BTU 177.9 178.3 190.3 178 187.5 154976 9.1 11091 405740.89

Lead MCX 28-APR-11 Lead RS./ KG. 131.85 129.9 130.85 117.75 119.5 106266 -12.35 5693 763848.23

Zinc MCX 28-APR-11 Zinc RS./ KG. 113.4 113.25 113.25 105.65 105.9 100770 -7.5 8618 656058.85

Nickel MCX 28-APR-11 Nickel RS./ KG. 1233.5 1232.9 1241.7 1151.9 1164.9 227629 -68.6 9727 804686.49

Aluminum MCX 28-APR-11 Aluminium RS./ KG. 120 119.7 120 116.4 118.15 21581 -1.85 1935 126804.84

* Turnover Till Friday

WEEKLY GAINERS INTERNATIONAL MARKET UPDATE WEEKLY

Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price % Change Commodity Closing Price % Change

LEAD 28-APR-2011 119.5 -9.37 GOLD 1486.6 0.85

ZINC 28-APR-2011 105.9 -6.62 SILVER 4261 4.93

COPPER 425.5 -5.48

CRUDE 109.26 -3.13

WEEKLY LOOSERS
NATURAL GAS 4.212 4.23
Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price % Change
USD/INR 44.27 0.48
NATURAL GAS 26 -APR-11 177.90 -8.66

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 Weekly Pivots

Weekly Report

Commodity 18th April - 23rd April 2011

Scripts R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

Gold 22343.33 21888.33 21729.67 21433.33 21274.67 20978.33 20523.33

Silver 69290.00 65330.00 63860.00 61370.00 59900.00 57410.00 53450.00

Copper 480.50 453.00 435.00 425.50 407.50 418.97 370.50

Crude Oil 4877.67 4864.67 4858.33 4851.67 4845.33 4838.67 4825.67

Natural Gas 209.70 197.40 192.20 185.10 179.90 172.80 160.50

Lead 148.90 135.80 127.65 122.70 114.55 109.60 96.50

Zinc 123.47 115.87 110.88 108.27 103.28 100.67 93.07

Nickel 1365.77 1275.97 1220.43 1186.17 1130.63 1096.37 1006.57

Aluminum 125.38 121.78 119.97 118.18 116.37 114.58 110.98

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