Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Article
More on CDS 5
Briefing
Article Summary 10
Policymaking from a “macroprudential” perspective in emerging
market economies
Interpreting Currency Movements during the Crisis
Managing Public Debt and Its Financial Stability Implications
What's New 18
Reports 26
World Economic Outlook - Update
Speeches 29
Market Roundup 34
Key Macroeconomic Indicators
Domestic 51
World 53
Outstanding Government Debt 54
CCIL Indices 64
Technical Analysis 69
Primary Market Analysis 71
Statistics 76
Government Securities Market 78
Money Market 98
Foreign Exchange Market 107
Derivatives 115
Interest Rate Movement 119
Corporate Bonds 124
Milestones 128
Key Personnel 131
MANAGING DIRECTOR'S MESSAGE
The tight liquidity condition of the previous the second half of December 2010. However,
month continued in Jan'11, albeit at a little the yield on 10-year G-sec moved up again to
milder scale, with RBI supporting the market 8.2 per cent by January 21, 2011, reflecting
with LAF repo inflows. The average infusion in both liquidity conditions and inflationary
LAF Repo window during the month was expectations. India's Current Account deficit
`93,071.75crores vis-à-vis `1,21,935crore in (CAD) has widened significantly. Although
Dec'10. Inflation clearly continues to be the recent trade data suggest moderation of the
dominant concern for all policy makers. After trade deficit in the latter part of the year,
some moderation between August and overall CAD for 2010-11 is expected to be about
November 2010, inflation rose again in 3.5 per cent of GDP. A CAD of this magnitude is
December 2010 on the back of sharp increase in not desirable. On the basis of the macro-
the prices of primary food articles and the economic issues persisting in the economy, the
recent spurt in global oil prices. Non-food RBI increased the repo rate under the liquidity
manufacturing inflation has remained sticky, adjustment facility (LAF) by 25 basis points
reflecting both buoyant demand conditions from 6.25 per cent to 6.5 per cent with and the
and rising costs. Real GDP in India increased reverse repo rate by 25 basis points from 5.25
by 8.9 per cent during the first half of 2010-11, per cent to 5.50 per cent with immediate effect.
reflecting strong domestic demand, especially As a fallout of liquidity situation, CCIL activity
private consumption and investment, and was mixed - in Jan'11, daily outright volumes
improving external demand. Although on a declined marginally to ` 7497crores from
cumulative basis, the IIP grew by 9.5 per cent ` 7541crores, daily market repo volumes
during April-November 2010, it has been showed a decline at ` 11541crores from
volatile in the current financial year with `12993crores, daily Forex volume increased to
growth rates ranging between 2.7 per cent and US$17.41billion from US$15.59billion and daily
16.6 per cent. The average daily call rate CBLO volume showed a marginal increase to
moderated from 6.7 per cent during December `44815crores from `43784crores. The situation
2010 to about 6.5 per cent in January 2011. At is expected to improve with the RBI monetary
the longer end, 10-year government security policy measures.
yield, which had generally remained above 8
per cent during most of October-November
2010 on account of inflationary pressures and
(Y. S. S. Kapdi)
persistent liquidity tightness, also softened in
MORE ON CDS
A. V. Rajwade*
2.1 CDS spread models: some finer points y2,3 = (x3-x2) * (1 -x2)
2.1.1 Term Structure of CDS spreads More generally y(i -1),i =(x i x (i-1)) *(1 x(i-1))
In the article published in the January 2011 issue of (i.e. unconditional probability of default
Rakshitra, I had referred to the relationship multiplied by the probability of no default in
between earlier years).
i. Unconditional and conditional default 2.1.1.2 Calculating CDS spreads from
probabilities; and default probabilities.
ii. Conditional default probabilities and Default probabilities can be combined with
CDS spreads for different maturities. recovery rates (say R) to calculate CDS spreads,
These relationships are derived once again from the once again applying the principle of arbitrage-free
principles arbitrage free pricing, described in the pricing. Let us assume the spread to be say “s”% p.a.
earlier article, and are elaborated below. For the seller of the protection the inflow in any
year is (s * probability of survival of bond without
2.1.1.1 Relationship between conditional the occurrence of a Credit Event, before the end of
and unconditional default probabilities. that year) -- for simplicity's sake, we assume that the
We earlier defined unconditional default Event occurs only at the end of a year.
probability as the probability of default before the For year i (i= I to n), this will be s * (1 y (i-1), i)
end of nth year, as estimated at inception. Let xi =
unconditional probability of default before the end We also need to calculate, for each year, the likely
of the i th year, i=1,2,3……n. outflows assuming a recovery rate of R. For year i,
5
structure of CDS spreads and hence their implied 2.1.3 Risk Free Rate
forward prices.
Another point worth noting is that standard
2.1.2 “Basis” pricing models use the swap rate as a proxy for risk
free rate.
“Basis” is the term commonly used to refer to the
difference between the model derived and actual 2.1.4 Spread Payments
spreads. In active markets, this difference arises
While the traditional practice was that the credit
because of demand supply imbalances as also more
protection buyer pays the spread quarterly in
fundamental factors. Some of the latter are
arrears, increasingly a practice is coming into vogue
discussed below:
that a portion of the spread is paid upfront and
i. The funding cost of the holder of the risky only the balance quarterly in arrears. This too is a
bond who is buying credit protection-and contributing factor to the existence of “basis” as,
how much it differs from the risk free rate. should a Credit Event occur, given the spread paid
To that extent, the buyer is likely to pay less upfront, only the balance which is yet to accrue will
than the credit premium embedded in bond not be payable by the protection buyer. The actual
pricing. spread the buyer would be willing to pay therefore
may be less than the model price.
ii. While, in theory, the holder of the bond
would be entitled to the accrued interest at 2.1.5 Some issues for conditions in India
the time of the occurrence of the Credit
Whatever the practices in western markets, we
Event, in practice the protection buyer may
obviously need to adapt them for our conditions,
not get it (or, more precisely, the recovery
in particular in two respects:
percentage on the accrued interest), even
while it will be factored in the cash i. Our swap rate has been generally below the
settlement. G-Sec yields and we should not therefore
use the swap as a proxy for the risk free rate
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6
market for changes in risk free rate), as the hedge the swap?
Reference Price as I have argued in the
In principle, the seller faces two
earlier article. In fact, the model discussed
risks/uncertainties:
in that article is based on an “asset swap” -
swap between the cash flow of a risky bond • The occurrence of a Credit Event, namely
and a credit risk free, fixed interest rate failure of the counterparty; and
bond.
• The MTM value of the derivative when the
2.1.6 Variations failure occurs.
Many variations of the basic product have been The basic principles of pricing/hedging the first of
introduced in the market. Some of them are these risks have been discussed earlier. As for the
described in the subsequent paragraphs. We also second, it could be hedged by entering into a
discuss the features of another credit derivative derivative contract with payoffs identical to the
namely a total return swap (TRS), sometimes also underlying derivative whose credit exposure is
referred to as the total rate of return swap (TROR) being hedged through the DCS - and the cost
swap. structured in the credit spread on the DCS.
2.2 Dynamic credit swap (DCS) (also known The Contingent Payment would be the MTM value
as “credit intermediation swap”) of the underlying derivative when the Credit Event
occurs - although the underlying derivative
DCS differs from the plain vanilla CDS in that it
transaction may not have matured. (The standard
protects the counterparty credit risk exposure
ISDA Master Agreements covering interest
inherent in other OTC derivatives like currency,
rate/currency derivatives give the non-defaulting
interest rate or commodity swaps, or bought
party the right to terminate the contract on
options, hereafter referred as the underlying
occurrence of specified events. The protection
derivative:
buyer under a DCS would obviously need to make
This first exposure could be hedged at a fixed • A Credit Event allowing termination may not
(known) credit spread by buying a DCS. How have occurred, but is apprehended.
would the writer or seller of the DCS price and
• There may be a minimum MTM when alone
7
termination is permitted by the Agreement. 2.3 Other variations
• There may be time intervals specified for i. Binary or digital CDS: the payoff is fixed,
payment of MTM margins. generally based on historical recovery rates;
• The cost of buying protection may be lower ii. Basket CDS: the Reference Obligation is a
than the credit spread factored in pricing the portfolio of bond/debt exposures. The
underlying derivative. Contingent Payment falls due on occurrence
of the “n”th default (n can be 1 also),
In fact, in order to meet the requirement of
whereafter the CDS gets terminated.
different DCS buyers, contracts can provide for
Sometimes, a CDS specifies that for triggering
different payoffs:
the Contingent Payment on occurrence of the
• A cap on the Contingent Payment; Credit Event, any one of a number of specified
bonds could be delivered. The buyer of the
• Contingent Payment to be MTM, less a fixed
CDS would obviously deliver the cheapest to
amount (which the protection buyer may well
deliver bond.
have recovered as margin when the underlying
derivative contract was entered into); iii. Contingent default swap: Payment is triggered
only when two Events occur, the first being the
• MTM changes between margin recovery dates;
Credit Event relating to the Reference Entity,
etc.
and the second one independent of it-for
All these variations will have lower costs than a example the level of the stock market.
plain vanilla DCS. Obviously such swaps would be cheaper to
buy than the plain vanilla CDS with a single
The problems of pricing/hedging DCS get more
Credit Event.
complex when the positive MTM of the underlying
exposure is strongly correlated to the probability of iv. CDS on a portfolio of bonds represented in an
occurrence of the Credit Event or counterparty Index: as the market for CDS has grown,
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default. To elaborate the point by using a simple Credit Indices of credit spreads have been
example, consider that the counterparty credit structured (with equal weights for all CDSs in
exposure to be hedged under the DCS is that on a the Index) and are accepted by the market. The
forward contract under which the protection buyer index can be used as the credit spread to buy or
is to receive a given amount of foreign currency and sell a CDS on all the underlying bonds. Such
pay a fixed amount of the counterparty's domestic CDSs have two features:
currency, on maturity of the contract. The credit
a. The notional on each bond is equal; and
exposure arises if the domestic currency falls
against the foreign currency. But this may itself b. The spread payment by the buyer comes
weaken the credit quality of the counterparty down proportionately when a Credit
because of worsening economic prospects and/or Event occurs in relation to any of the
macro-economic measures taken by the authorities bonds in the Index.
to counter the fall of the domestic currency!
8
2.4 Derivatives on CDS: Forwards and price. The shorter maturity CDS will coincide with
Options the maturity of the forward contract, and the
longer maturity with the maturity of the CDS
Once a liquid market in CDS got established,
underlying the forward contract.
forwards and options also started getting priced
and quoted. The forward contract on CDS The parameters of the call and put options will
commits the counterparties to enter into a CDS include
contract for a specified notional, maturity and
(i) The notional principal;
spread at the price agreed now.
(ii) The maturity of the option; and
This can be arrived at from the spreads for different
maturities-buy longer maturity, sell shorter (iii) The exercise price by way of spread on the
maturity CDS (or vice versa) to arrive at the forward CDS.
9
ARTICLE SUMMARY
Policymaking from a “macroprudential” be classified into measures to control capital
perspective in emerging market economies: inflows, foreign exchange market intervention and
Ramon Moreno; BIS Working Papers No foreign reserve accumulation, measures to
336, Monetary and Economic Department, strengthen bank balance sheets and capital &
January 2011 measures to maintain the quality of credit or to
influence credit growth or allocation.
The landscape for financial stability in emerging
market economies (EMEs) has changed Many central banks value a regime of floating
considerably since the first half of 2009. Capital exchange rates because it reminds financial markets
flows are back, and given current account surpluses of foreign exchange risk - and so creates the right
and efforts to manage exchange rates, foreign incentives for risk management. Hence such a
reserves are rising. This could lead to an increase in regime is seen as having macroprudential benefits.
aggregate demand with a concomitant risk of But even under floating, central banks intervene in
inflation; and an increase in bank credit growth foreign exchange markets to dampen exchange rate
and asset prices, increasing financial fragility. volatility, or to accumulate foreign reserves.
Rapid credit growth can mean deterioration in
With regards to measures to strengthen bank
credit quality over time, disguised by rapid
balance sheets and capital, steps taken have
economic growth that may prove transitory. Credit
included limits to net open positions of financial
growth could also be associated with growing risks
institutions, more stringent requirements on
of spillovers or contagion, either due to common
foreign currency lending, rules for liquidity risks,
exposure to risky sectors or networks linking
rules regarding currency and maturity mismatches,
financial institutions. The risks would be amplified
capital requirements, & loan-loss provisioning
by booms in the prices of leveraged assets. Risks
requirements.
could materialise in the event of sudden capital
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inflow reversals. Raising interest rates is the As far as measures to maintain the quality of credit
standard response to deal with an increase in or to influence credit growth or allocation are
aggregate demand, but it could attract more capital concerned, loan-to-value (LTV) ceilings on
inflows and lead to appreciation pressures. mortgage loans have been used in a number of
Furthermore, whether interest rate policy is an EMEs to limit credit risks; debt-to-income or debt
appropriate instrument to deal with the financial service-to-income rules, that would tend to ensure
stability implications of bank credit growth and credit flows to those with a greater ability to repay,
asset prices is still the subject of debate. have also been used.
Policymakers in EMEs have sought to limit these Since the mid-1980s, most direct controls on bank
risks during the extended period of expansion in lending have been dismantled because they
the 2000s by using what are traditionally seen as undermined the efficiency of financial
“monetary” or “micro prudential” tools but that intermediation. Nevertheless, several countries
are now applied with a “macroprudential” have used credit ceilings more recently, and China
perspective. The form of intervention can broadly has used window guidance, involving
10
ARTICLE SUMMARY
consultations between the authorities and the macroeconomic or financial imbalances, and
banks, to curtail lending. However, reserve indicators of systemic risks.
requirements are less costly to authorities and are
Interpreting data and assessing risks in EMEs also
less distortionary than controls on bank lending,
poses challenges. There are still difficulties in
although there are well-known drawbacks. Other
assessing credit risk in individual financial
measures include taxes on lending & targeting
institutions, notably from fast-growing sectors,
certain sectors for adjustments.
such as consumer and mortgage lending, due to
Sudden changes in capital inflows have been a incomplete default history data. Furthermore,
major contributor to financial instability in the systemic risks are not fully understood.
EMEs over several decades. While foreign currency Information on interbank exposures may also be
borrowing has generally been liberalised, a number limited or not easily analysed. Deregulation and
of EMEs still impose restrictions. India deepening of financial markets further accentuate
traditionally has maintained restrictions that seek these challenges. Much of the discussion regarding
to encourage FDI and limit external borrowing, the timing of macroprudential measures pertains
particularly short-term. However, some central to how these measures should be applied over the
banks see disadvantages in capital controls or do cycle, partly because regulatory provisions are often
not consider them feasible. Capital controls procyclical. From a risk-management perspective,
involve significant tradeoffs. They can help supplementary tools ideally would be imposed
contain financial stability risks; alternatively they early and in a manner that takes into account risks
can cause distortions and impair financial should economic conditions deteriorate.
development.
The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision is
A macroprudential view introduces an additional taking a number of steps to mitigate procyclicality.
dimension to the discussion of economic These include assessing and dampening the
11
ARTICLE SUMMARY
Supplementary tools are generally seen as Over the medium term, the use of supplementary
enhancing banking sector resilience to shocks, but and macroprudential tools raises issues of financial
their perceived effectiveness in curbing credit development and efficiency. Many supplementary
growth appears to vary. Partly reflecting tools have been abandoned in advanced economies
uncertainties about the effects of supplementary or because of the heavy costs imposed on the financial
macroprudential instruments, the authorities system and distortions in resource allocation. On
appear to behave pragmatically when applying the other hand, recent experience showed clearly
such tools. In particular, they appear to assess the that market discipline is not enough to guarantee
effectiveness of measures adopted and adjust rates financial stability. The crisis has prompted a
or coverage if this appears to be necessary. In some reassessment of how these two competing
cases, however, the settings for what are considerations should be balanced.
increasingly recognised as possible
Another concern is that the focus on
macroprudential tools are still based on
supplementary tools, including capital controls,
microprudential norms. It will be difficult to
could draw attention away from the need for sound
change this until theoretical and empirical research
macroeconomic policies. A number of central
clarifies how these settings should be adjusted to
banks take the view that there is no substitute for
take into account macroprudential risks.
conservative fiscal, monetary and regulatory
The use of macroprudential instruments raises the policies in order to prevent fluctuations in global
question of how these instruments might be related capital flows from causing severe disruptions in
to interest rate policy. Both interest rates and EMEs.
macroprudential instruments are ways to influence
Source: www.bis.org
financial conditions. Such instruments can
strengthen or weaken how the policy rate is
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12
ARTICLE SUMMARY
nature of the slowdown led investors to believe that considerations. This movement is attributable to
negative shocks originating in the U.S. would affect the widening between such rates, the Fed's open
foreign markets even more acutely. However commitment to prolonged easing, and the lowering
Kohler (2010) argues that exchange rate of the Fed Funds rates.
movements during this crisis were characterized by
The UIP decomposition results suggest that in the
both safe-heaven effects and carry trade that
majority of countries, the initial depreciating phase
resulted from interest rate differentials.
against the USD cannot be explained in terms of
The paper tries to analyze currency movements and changes in expected relative real interest rates. The
its drivers during the financial crisis of 2008-2010 decomposition suggests that the depreciating phase
using an adaptation of the Uncovered Interest was the result of a portfolio shock which is in line
Parity (UIP) condition. The paper also investigates with the view of most commentators at the time
the relationship between exchange rate movements that saw the U.S. dollar's strength as a sign of real
and monetary policy and its heterogeneous panic and risk aversion. The wave of initial
character during the crisis by assessing the depreciations came in a staged fashion likely
contribution of monetary policy news in the U.S. reflecting markets' sentiments about the strength
to exchange rate developments in five inflation- and sequence with which the financial and
targeting advanced economies (Australia, Canada, economic crisis originating in the US would hit
the Euro Area, New Zealand, and the United individual countries. Over the period, the USD
Kingdom) and three inflation-targeting EMEs nominal effective exchange rate strengthened
(Brazil, Chile and Mexico) during the crisis. substantially as short-term capital flew out of all the
Employing instantaneous forward interest rate sample currencies into the USD.
differentials for each country in an adapted UIP
By contrast, the appreciating phase of some
framework, the paper decomposes exchange rate
currencies (EUR, BRL, CLP and MXN) can be
13
ARTICLE SUMMARY
in the euro, the Brazilian real, and the Mexican average and/or with higher-than-average current
peso, and around 70% of the fluctuation on the account deficits have experienced significantly
Chilean peso while 30% ((Brazil, Mexico), 60% larger depreciations against the USD (averaging
(Chile) to 100% (Euro Area) of these revisions about 22.5 % between July 2008 and February
relates in the real interest rate component of the 2009).
nominal differential i.e. expectation about
Thus in advanced countries the largest daily
monetary policy factors. However, risk rather than
changes in expected exchange rates seems to have
return considerations seem to have been behind the
been dominated by changes in investors' sentiment
small appreciation of sterling, or the stronger
toward those countries' currencies against the USD
appreciations of the Canadian and New Zealand
(portfolio shocks), and hence to be risk-related. In
dollars. All these countries made clear
other words cumulative revisions to nominal
commitments to particularly low levels of policy
forward interest rate differentials for most chosen
rates ruling out revisions to nominal rate
dates are unable to explain the large appreciation /
differentials vis-à-vis the Fed Funds rate going
depreciation seen in their bilateral with the USD
forward.
over these dates. However the Fed's emergency cut
In emerging market economy countries-with the of 50 basis points in Fed Fund rates to 1.5% on
exception of Chile-the largest daily changes in October 8, 2008, however, surprised most currency
expectations in exchange rates during the crisis markets, both emerging and advanced, and seems
seem to have been driven by changes in forward responsible for large FX trading on that day.
differentials. In case of Brazil, the entire exchange
Source: www.imf.org
rate appreciation against the USD can be
rationalized through revisions to forward
differentials of which almost 30% can be ascribed
Managing Public Debt and Its Financial
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14
ARTICLE SUMMARY
stability of debt capital markets and the financial currencylinked debt; an extension of the maturity
institutions that hold public debt. The sharp profile of the debt portfolio at a reasonable cost; the
increase in debt levels in developed countries and assignment of maturity brackets that avoid a
the recent contagion fears in Euro Area countries bunching of refinancing need; and a widening of
through the banking systems have reinforced this the investor base through attracting foreign
perception. investors into the domestic debt market. The task is
operationally complex and requires debt managers
This paper explores how the debt and debt
to make difficult trade-offs.
management contribute to financial stability.
Recently studies explicitly acknowledged the role In an ideal world, debt managers would be able to
of the proper management of domestic public debt issue the low-cost paper demanded by foreign
in promoting macroeconomic-financial stability. investors through a liability structure in which
An analytical model explains a financial crisis in their exit is negatively-or weakly- correlated with
emerging markets as a function of the balance sheet macroeconomic risk factors or exit triggers for
vulnerabilities of different sectors of the economy other investors. If this is not possible, the low
to exogenous shocks and the way in which such issuance cost may come at a heavy price in terms of
sector-specific vulnerabilities spill over to other riskiness of the debt sold to foreign investors.
sectors. Clearly, however, unsustainable domestic Depending on the country and the point in the
debt levels caused by factors such as expansionary business cycle, this could be very risky. The volume
fiscal policy, under fixed-exchange rates or and nature of foreign investors' presence in the
exchange rate bond arrangements, can also lead to domestic debt market needs to be carefully assessed
currency crises, with large, discrete devaluations in raising and managing public debt. In addition to
and substantial macroeconomic dislocation. strategic improvements through a long-term plan
of action, debt managers play an important role in
At a strategic level, debt management plays a vital
15
ARTICLE SUMMARY
institutions' exposure to the government is high, as Analytically, financial stability can be viewed as a
public bonds carry low default, extension, and function of the level of the debt stock, the debt
liquidity risk. While in a downswing, especially in profile, the investor base, the stage of development
the case of a recession triggered by a financial sector of the capital market, and institutional factors.
dislocation, maintenance of the asset quality of the Higher levels of debt trigger policies for mitigating
government's liabilities, although far more elusive, possible higher inflation rates and the sovereign's
is much more critical in containing adverse credibility becomes less ensured in the eyes of
developments in the real and financial sectors. international investors, which could result in
higher volatility caused by difficulties in
In general, the presence of a well-functioning
refinancing government debt, which in turn could
government debt market helps build and develop
trigger wider financial instability. The higher stock
efficient financial markets and inhibits the
also entails a higher probability of affecting the
sovereign's ability to conduct effective
prices of financial assets, correspondingly
countercyclical macroeconomic-financial policy. A
influencing the soundness of the financial sector
sound financial market allows a country's savings
balance sheet.
to be channeled into investments in a more
effective way. More efficient financial markets also Debt structures relying heavily on short-term
allow for longer-term loans for individuals and instruments are sources of vulnerability because
companies and help boost investment in a more short average maturities entail high rollover and
stable way, allowing the financial system to refinancing risk and adverse fiscal impact. Debt
promote an efficient allocation of capital and structures that are too short or allow for bumps in
transformation of maturities. Market participants the maturity profile can potentially generate
typically reassess the risk of public liabilities with confidence crises, fueled by investors' concerns that
potentially rapid and substantial ratings the government will not have sufficient funds to
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downgrades, which limit borrowing capacity redeem maturing bonds when they fall due.
because of the narrowing of the investor base and Depending on the extent of these fears, they could
the increase in issuance cost. It also exacerbates translate into lower demand for the country's
pressure on financial institutions' balance sheets, instruments in auctions, thus triggering a self-
incomes, and capital reserves, particularly where fulfilling prophecy.
marking to market of government securities in
The maturity of a debt structure is instrumental for
financial institutions' portfolios implies
financial stability. As the short-term debt involves
reductions in income and through an increase in
higher refinancing risk which could pose a higher
the risk weight - for banks using advanced Internal
risk to the financial stability of the country, a fixed-
Ratings Based (IRB) methodologies under Basel-II -
rate and long-term bond portfolio could be the
a reduction in capital. Finally, from an investors'
ideal debt structure. However, fixed rate bonds pose
perspective, market pessimism can narrow the
less risk to the government but may represent a
investor base for the sovereign's issues, which may
higher risk to the investor as longer-term debt may
translate into reduced liquidity of public debt.
represent higher value at risk (VaR) for the debt
16
ARTICLE SUMMARY
holder. If individual investors, in search of higher investors are less committed to these assets.
profits, increase their exposure to interest rate risk
Other institutional aspects for financial stability
and there is a hike in interest rates, the market as a
are efficient risk-free benchmark instruments, a
whole may suffer, because the unwinding of
well defined legal framework, proper coordination
positions by some institutions may trigger VaR
between debt management and monetary policy,
thresholds for others. Therefore debt managers
transparent communicational setup and risk
should be aware of and try to monitor this risk and
mitigation policies. The issuance of an efficient
to combat this situation. During the same period,
“risk-free” yield curve can serve as a reference point
the government increases issuance of floating rate
for pricing other instruments issued by financial
bonds.
enterprises or corporations and thus reduces
As the investor base usually comprises banks, systemic risks stemming from the financial sector.
mutual funds, pension funds, and foreign and Such benchmark instruments can serve as efficient
retail investors, the debt managers must strike the collateral for operations in the financial market
right balance between meeting the specific needs of that reduces the transaction risk of institutions
each of these groups of investors and reducing the which can use these instruments to offset credit
costs to the government. They can play a risk. A well-defined legal framework and proper
preemptive role in developing the investor base coordination between debt management and
further, by issuing instruments targeted at a monetary policy results in better signaling of
specific group of investors and by working on government intentions and increases transparency.
increasing a specific group's participation in the
Concluding the paper suggests that the a debt
debt or in particular instruments. The inclusion of
management strategy should be carefully analyzed
foreign investors in the investor base can reduce
by debt managers and policy makers in terms of
vulnerabilities associated with public debt as they
their impact on the government's balance sheet,
17
BRIEFING
WHAT'S NEW
International • The People's Bank of China raised the reserve ratios by 50 basis points
Developments
starting January 20, the fourth increase in two months.
• The Bank of Korea raised the seven-day repurchase rate by a quarter of a
percentage point to 2.75% and announced plans to freeze utility costs and
cut food tariffs.
• Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the central bank is doing its
best to minimize the burden of regulations on smaller banks that don't pose
risks to the financial system.
• Federal Reserve policy makers said that improvements in the economy
didn't meet the threshold for scaling back their plans to purchase $600
billion in bonds.
• European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said the central bank
can't be relied on to offset government irresponsibility and called for “more
ambitious” efforts to reform fiscal rules.
• The European Central Bank threw Portugal a temporary lifeline by buying
up its bonds, as market and peer pressure mounted for Lisbon to seek an
international bailout soon.
• Brazil's central bank set reserve requirements on short dollar positions held
by local banks in its third attempt since October to stem a rally in the
currency.
• Standard & Poor's cut Japan's long-term sovereign debt rating for the first
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time since 2002, saying the country's government lacked a coherent plan to
tackle its mounting debt. It reduced the rating by one notch to AA minus -
three levels below the highest possible rating.
• Standard & Poor's and Moody's investor service warned that US will loose its
'AAA' rating if its national debt kept growing.
• China ($14.8 trillion economy) over took the US ($14.6 trillion economy) as
the world's biggest economy when measured in terms of purchasing power.
• The U.S. GDP grew at a 3.2% annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2010 as
consumer spending climbed by the most in more than four years.
• China's growth accelerated to 9.80% in the fourth quarter as industrial
production and retail sales picked up, adding pressure on policy makers to
keep raising interest rates. The economy expanded 10.30% in 2010, the
fastest pace in three years. CPI eased to 4.60% in December but rose 3.30%
18
WHAT'S NEW
19
WHAT'S NEW
20
WHAT'S NEW
pensions and health care to keep their debt burdens stable over the long
term, Moody's Investors Service said.
• The U.K. economy faces a 20 percent chance of slipping into another
recession as rising unemployment and faster inflation weigh on growth, the
Centre for Economics and Business Research said.
• Japan's government raised its assessment of the economy for the first time
since June, as global demand encourages companies to step up output.
• As per the World Bank, higher food prices pose a major threat to the global
economy and social stability but policymakers must not over-regulate
commodity markets.
• World food prices rose to a record in December on higher sugar, grain and
oilseed costs, the United Nations said, exceeding levels reached in 2008.
Indian Economy • India's fiscal deficit during April-December 2010 was `1,71,249 crore and
represented a decline of 44.75% over the fiscal deficit of `3,09,980 crores in
April-December 2009. The fiscal deficit during accounted for 44.90% of the
budgeted estimates of `3,81,408 crore for 2010-11.
• India's export grew by 36.40% in December 2010 to $22.50 billion from
$16.49 billion in December 2009, while imports declined by 11.10% to $25.13
billion from $28.25 billion in December 2009. The trade deficit for April-
December 2010 at $82.02 billion was higher than the $80.13 billion during the
corresponding period in the previous year.
• The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) registered a growth of 2.70% in
21
WHAT'S NEW
Indian Economy • The wholesale-price index rose 8.43% in December from a year earlier after a
7.48% increase in November.
• India's annual inflation rate based on consumer price index (CPI) for
industrial workers surged to 9.47% in December from 8.33% in November as
food items became costlier.
• India received FDI of $1.6 billion in November 2010, down 7% from the
$1.72 in same month last year.
• FDI inflow in the services sector dipped by 30% to $2.16 billion in April-
October this fiscal.
• Import of sensitive products increased 14% to `40,499 crore in the April-
October 2010 period and amounted to 4.6% of the country's total imports
during the period.
• Direct tax collections in the first nine months (April-December) of the
current financial year increased 19.47% to touch `2,98,958 crore, compared
with `2,50,232 crore in the corresponding period of 2009-10.
• Finance Minister, Mr Pranab Mukherjee, raised the collections targets for
direct tax by 4% to `4.47 lakh crore and for indirect tax by 7% to `3.37 lakh
crore for the current financial year.
• Finance minister Pranab Mukherjee said that India's economic growth may
have climbed back to a higher trajectory but main concerns now are inflation
and capital inflows.
• Finance minister Pranab Mukherjee said the “normal monsoons” this year
would help the agriculture sector to expand at a spectacular 6% this financial
THE CLEARING CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
22
WHAT'S NEW
Indian Economy • Crisil in its report titled “'India-Raising the Growth Bar” said that India's
domestic demand will enable it to maintain 8.4% annual growth over the next
five years. If some supply-side issues are addressed, it can sustain a 10%
growth.
• Investment bank Nomura in its India 2011 strategy note titled 'Under the
Weather', nudged down the GDP growth forecast for India to 8% for the year
to March 2012 from 8.10%.
• As per analysts with the Royal Bank of Scotland, India is not ready for 9%
growth in current circumstances and the recent decline in WPI inflation
should not be equated with decline in prices.
• Goldman Sachs said that the high deficit number supports the view that
rising current account deficit being financed by short-term capital flows
remains the biggest risk to India's growth story.
• BNP Paribas expects that 2011 is likely to be a year of two halves for India:
muted performance by the market in the first half and strong recovery in the
second half.
• IMF expects Indian economy to grow by 8.8% during the current financial
year, up from 7.4% a year ago, mainly driven by robust growth in farm sector
and pick up in consumption.
• Data released by the US Department of Commerce show that India's exports
to the US were more or less unaffected by recession.
• Marking a robust year for deal activities, mergers and acquisitions involving
Indian companies trebled to $68.3 billion in 2010 compared with the
23
WHAT'S NEW
Indian Economy • India has voluntarily asked the IMF and the World Bank to conduct a
comprehensive and in-depth analysis of the country's financial sector, Finance
Minister Pranab Mukherjee said.
• The World Bank has raised its single-country loan exposure limit for India to
$17.5 billion from $15.5 billion.
• The Budget session of Parliament will begin on February 21 and the Union
Budget for 2011-12 will be presented on February 28.
Reserve Bank of India: • Shri Anand Sinha took over as the Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of
(Source: http://rbi.org.in)
India.
• From January 3, 2011, the Reserve Bank of India will place on its website, the
public engagement schedule of the Governor and the Deputy Governors.
• RBI has asked banks to allow only one transaction at ATM machines for one
entry of PIN (Personal Identification Number).
• Banks have been permitted to change the benchmark and methodology used
in the computation of Base Rate for a further period of six months i.e. upto
June 30, 2011.
• The deadline for adoption of security issues and risk mitigation measures
related to card not present transactions has been extended by one month upto
January 31, 2011.
• RBI notified the prudential guidelines for parallel run and prudential floor
for capital adequacy and market discipline under the New Capital Adequacy
THE CLEARING CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
Framework (NCAF).
• The guidelines on listing and rating requirements pertaining to non-SLR
securities would not be applicable to banks' investments in Non-Convertible
Debentures (NCDs) of maturity up to one year.
• RBI has decided to extend the scope of 'Speed Clearing' to cover all transaction
codes, other than those relating to government cheques.
• RBI has notified the modifications in the regulatory framework for core
investment companies (CICs).
• RBI issued the directions for monitoring of end use of funds.
• Banks have been directed not to issue Tier 1 or Tier 2 capital instruments with
'step-up option'.
• RBI notified the modified norms regarding opening of small accounts.
• RBI has allowed more participants in the currency futures and the exchange
traded currency options market.
24
WHAT'S NEW
Reserve Bank of India: • RBI has notified the revised service charge structure for cheque collection
(Source: http://rbi.org.in)
effective from April 1, 2011.
• RBI has decided to extend the timings for Centralised Funds Management
System (CFMS).
• Central Processing Centres (CPCs)/Service branches have been directed not to
have direct interface with customers.
• UCBs have been directed to follow “Settlement Date” accounting for
recording both outright and ready forward purchase and sale transactions in
Government Securities.
• RBI released the draft guidelines on advanced measurement approach (AMA)
for calculating operational risk capital charge.
• RBI released on its website the “Discussion Paper on Presence of Foreign Banks
in India”.
• RBI released on its website the report of the sub-committee of its Central Board
of Directors under the Chairmanship of Shri Y H Malegam to study issues and
concerns in the micro finance institutions sector.
• RBI has given certain relaxations to banks in its present restructuring
guidelines in order to enable them to extend credit support to micro finance
institutions (MFIs).
• RBI has invited views/comments of all stakeholders and the public at large on
the Malegam Committee report on microfinance institutions (MFIs).
• RBI has placed on its website the report of the Working Group on information
25
REPORTS
World Economic Outlook - Update expected to persist in 2011, due to continued robust
demand and a sluggish supply response to
Global activity expanded at an annualized rate of
tightening market conditions. As a result, the IMF's
just over 3½ percent in the third quarter of 2010
baseline petroleum price projection for 2011 is now
owing to better than forecast in the October 2010
$90 per barrel. Consumer prices in emerging
WEO, owing to stronger-than expected
economies are projected to rise 6 percent this year,
consumption in the United States and Japan.
while that for advanced economies inflation is
Growth in emerging and developing economies
expected to remain at 1½ percent this year.
remained robust in the third quarter, buoyed by
w e l l - e n t re n c h e d p r i v a t e d e m a n d , s t i l l Downside risks arise from the possibility of
accommodative policy stances, and resurgent tensions in the euro area periphery spreading to the
capital inflows. core of Europe; the lack of progress in formulating
medium-term fiscal consolidation plans in major
advanced economies; the continued weakness of
the U.S. real estate market; high commodity prices;
and overheating and the potential for boom-bust
cycles in emerging markets. On the upside, there are
risks from stronger-than-expected business
investment rebounds in major advanced
economies. Another downside risk stems from
insufficient progress in developing medium-term
fiscal consolidation plans in large advanced
economies. In emerging economies, key risks relate
Activity in the advanced economies is projected to to overheating, a rapid rise of inflation pressures,
THE CLEARING CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
expand by 2½ percent during 2011-12, which is still and the possibility of a hard landing. In the near
sluggish considering the depth of the 2009 term, upside risks to growth have risen, driven by
recession and insufficient to make a significant accommodative policies, strong terms-of-trade
dent in high unemployment rates. In both 2011 gains for commodity exporters, and resurgent
and 2012, growth in emerging and developing capital inflows.
economies is expected to remain buoyant at 6½
In the advanced economies, there is a need for
percent, a modest slowdown from the 7% growth
continued progress to repair and reform financial
registered last year. Developing Asia continues to
systems. In the near term, emerging signs of a
grow most rapidly, but other emerging regions are
handoff from public to private demand in many
also expected to continue their strong rebound.
large advanced economies suggests that countries
Prices for both oil and non-oil commodities rose can push forward in formulating and
considerably in 2010, in response to strong global implementing credible medium-term
demand but also to supply shocks for selected consolidation plans. At the same time, monetary
commodities. Upward pressure on prices is accommodation needs to continue in the advanced
26
REPORTS
27
REPORTS
economies. Monetary tightening should begin or combat overheating pressures and facilitate a
continue in emerging economies where healthy rebalancing from external to domestic
overheating pressures are starting to emerge. demand. In other countries where the currency is
Further, prudential measures to keep increases in above levels consistent with medium-term
credit or asset markets from becoming excessive fundamentals, fiscal adjustment can help lower
should also be considered. For emerging countries, interest rates and restrain domestic demand.
with real effective rates close to pre-crisis levels,
Source: www.imf.org
allowing the currency to appreciate would help
THE CLEARING CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
28
SPEECHES
According to him, sometimes, communication, Central banks have learnt that giving forward
instead of being a vehicle for policy, can be the guidance on the policy trajectory is an effective
policy itself. Communication can be a potentially way of managing market expectations; but the
29
SPEECHES
for illustration. The Reserve Bank conducts a The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision
quarterly inflation expectations survey based on a (BCBS) and the Financial Stability Board (FSB) are
sample of respondents, since September 2005. By currently engaged in devising a framework for
2009 there was a growing view within the Reserve regulating and supervising systemically important
Bank that the results of the survey should be financial institutions (SIFIs). Under the
'communicated' to the public on the principle arrangement presently under discussion, SIFIs will
that, as far as possible, there should be no be pre-identified on the basis of some defined
information asymmetry between the public and criteria and subjected to graded prudential
the RBI. The real communication dilemma surcharges and other safeguards. These are
emerged over the question whether the RBI will be intended to eliminate the moral hazard, reduce
able to convey the arms length relationship their systemic risk potential, and should it become
between the 'Reserve Bank' and the 'Reserve Bank inevitable, allow them to fail in an orderly
Survey', and make the broader public appreciate manner. The intent is to pre-identify SIFIs for the
that the survey results are the opinion of the purpose of greater supervision but not to disclose
respondents and not of the Reserve Bank. the list as that would accentuate the moral hazard.
The dilemma is how the market might actually
According to Dr. Subbarao, communication
respond to this deliberate non-transparency.
dilemmas arise not just in the domain of monetary
policy but also with respect to other dimensions of Dr. Subbarao continues that greater transparency
the Reserve Bank's work, for instance on the is not always better communication and white
guidelines over the issuance of new banking noise often complicates understanding; and that
licenses. With respect to Basel III framework, Dr. central banks may sometimes withhold
THE CLEARING CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
Subbarao feels that the communication challenge information for strategic reasons. However, he
is to educate the market on the Basel III notion of argues that the RBI has, however, progressively
buffers and their manner of use so that these moved towards greater disclosure in line with
safeguards function the way they are intended to. international best practices, and is among 68
The second communication challenge comes from central banks from around the world to have
the 'comply or explain' framework under which adopted the Special Data Dissemination
countries have the option to deviate from certain Standards (SDDS) template for publication of
components of the package and explain why they detailed data on foreign exchange reserves,
have deviated. The concern really is that the including some information on currency
market, known for its unfailing ruthlessness, will composition, investment pattern and forward
penalize any deviation, and the communication positions.
challenge for regulators is to persuade the markets
Dr. Subbarao feels that the media has been an
to evaluate the country's compliance based on the
effective intermediary between the Reserve Bank
explanation.
30
SPEECHES
and its stakeholders; however, there are ways in centrality of banks as the supporting lifelines of
which it can become even more effective. He financial markets. There is a clear recognition of
suggests that the media will probably be more the inadequacies of the regulatory approach based
effective and value adding if it allows time for on the assumption of self-contained, well
digesting the news and thinks through before functioning markets which ignored the risks these
'analysis and interpretation', and does some markets passed on to the banking system.
research before coming out with 'opinion'. Also,
She mentioned two kind of financial system i.e.
more stringent quality control will make the
bank-based and market based financial systems.
media a more useful and effective 'news
The bank-based system highlights the positive role
intermediator'. The media has a responsibility also
of banks in leveraging informational advantage
for broad basing its reporting; and should opt for
about the firms for capital allocation and ensuring
restraint instead of sensationalism.
better credit discipline. In contrast, the market-
In his conclusion, Dr. Subbarao states that it is the based system highlights the growth enhancing role
continuing endeavour of the RBI to communicate of well-functioning markets in fostering greater
in a clear manner so as to minimize scope for innovation; enhancing greater market discipline
misinterpretation; in an effective manner so that and corporate governance. Market based systems
the diverse target groups get the relevant were supposed to reduce the problem of moral
information and message; and also in an honest hazard inherent in bank-based systems. However,
and consistent manner such that people can link it is increasingly being recognized that any system
its policies and action to past trends and future is essentially an interplay of dynamic interaction
projections. between banks and markets and right
31
SPEECHES
documentation practices. The end result of the as well as borrowing. Inter-bank liabilities in all
banks' increasing reliance on capital markets and forms for any bank have to be within 200 percent
capital market intermediaries was an explosion in of its net-worth. Access to collateralized segments
the total size of financial markets. On the other such as market repo and CBLO is contingent on
hand, as major market participants, it is the banks the availability of securities, which is floored by
which create and enhance market liquidity by the SLR requirements. On the asset side,
virtue of their participation without which it investment activities of banks are based on
would be difficult to envisage the success of following fundamental guiding principles: (i)
markets. Even the central counter parties (CCPs), Nature of different credit exposures is different
which guarantee market transactions and assume and all exposures cannot be treated on par (ii)
counterparty risks through novation, ultimately Underlying intent and spirit of a particular
depend on banks to for the settlement guarantee transaction is more relevant than the form (iii)
funds. Contamination risks arising from off-balance
sheet activities need to be contained.
Now there is generally accepted consensus on
improving the quality of capital of banks and the She admitted that it is impossible to have a
new Basel norms prescribe a higher portion of straightjacket framework for scope and nature of
pure equity. There are also proposals for a new banks' involvement with market-based systems
form of instruments - contingent capital - which such as corporate bond market, securitization,
would be nothing but a convertible debt security issuance of Irrevocable Payment Commitments by
that would automatically convert into equity as banks to stock exchanges, issue of structured forex
the institution's financial condition weakened. derivatives by banks and Credit Default Swap
THE CLEARING CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
32
SPEECHES
revenue streams of banks? (iii) How to address sheets? (vi) How to increase the appetite for credit
conflicts of interest in banks' lending risk among non-bank institutional investors? (vii)
relationships and capital market activities? (iv) How to encourage true market development
How to strengthen the rating regime? (v) How to without the support of banks?
address excessive collateralisation of balance
www.rbi.org.in
33
MARKET ROUND-UP
MARKET OVERVIEW
Macro-economic Overview
Domestic
• Fiscal stimulus announced by the government and Pay Commission awards enabled the economy to
achieve a smart recovery on both savings and investment fronts in 2009-10. Data published by the Central
Statistical Organization shows that gross capital formation - a proxy for investment - stood at 36.5% of
GDP in 2009-10 as against 34.5% in 2008-09. Despite a decrease in household savings, a rise in public and
private corporate savings pushed the overall savings rate to 33.7% in 2009-10 from 32.2% in the year
before. According to the quick estimates, the economy grew 8% during 2009-10, higher than 7.4%
provisionally estimated earlier, driven by stronger performance in manufacturing (8.8%), financing,
insurance, real estate & business services (9.2%), transport, storage and communication (15%),
community, social and personal services (11.8%). The numbers have been revised following the change in
the wholesale price index with base year 2004-05 and also subsequent revision in the index of industrial
production. The country's per capita income also, grew by 14.5% to `46,492 in 2009-10 from `40,605 in
the year-ago period.
• RBI, in its Third Quarter Review of Monetary Policy 2010-11, retained the baseline projection of real GDP
growth at 8.5% with an upside bias. IMF too revised up its projection for the Indian economy to 8.8%
during 2011 from 7.4% a year ago following robust growth in farm sector and pick up in consumption, at
the same time, raising concerns over rising prices.
• The government's fiscal deficit in the April-December period of 2010-11 has come down by 45% to `1.71
lakh crore (drop of `15,273 crore from November'10), compared to the `3.09 lakh crore in the same period
last fiscal. Better-than-expected income from spectrum auction and a growing tax kitty are the prime
reasons for the fall in deficit figures. Besides, the government has also cut down on its expenditure further
narrowing the gap between its revenue and expenses. In absolute terms, expenditure by the government
during the three quarters rose by 11% to `7.87 lakh crore from `7.07 lakh crore in the period a year ago,
34
which got overshadowed by impressive growth in revenues that went up by almost 50% at `5.84 lakh crore
till December as against same period last fiscal. The government collected `3.91 lakh crore in taxes during
the nine-month period, which was 73.2% of the Budgetary target for the entire fiscal. Meanwhile, non-tax
revenue in April-December'10, stood at `1.93 lakh crore, 130.4% of the Budget estimate for the entire
fiscal, primarily on account of higher realization from the auction of spectrum. Banking on healthy
growth in direct taxes collections, the finance minister raised the revenue collection target for financial
year by `20, 000 crore to `4.5 lakh crore.
• According to the data provided by the Commerce Ministry, the country's goods exports have shot up by
36.3% in December'10 to $22.50 billion, the highest in 33 months. Imports, on the contrary, fell by 10.9%
to $25.13 billion, the lowest in the last 14 months. This resulted in trade deficit narrowing to $2.63
billion, the lowest in the last three years. The reasons for the good show by exporters were market
diversification, better demand even in traditional destinations such as the US and Europe, competitive
pricing of items with help from Government incentives as well as better marketing. Oil imports in
December fell 16% to $6.93 billion where as non-oil imports, including capital goods were up 9% to $18.2
billion. The Third Quarter Review of Monetary Policy 2010-11 expressed concern over the widening
current account deficit Trend in Export and Import during 2010-11 (Amt. in USD Million)
(CAD) which is expected to Month Export
Growth
Import
Growth Trade
(%) (%) Balance
be almost 3.5% of GDP.
2009-10 178665 286985 -108320
Persistent rise in
Apr-10 17278 38.5 28022 45.0 -10744
commodity prices may pose May-10 16023 30.1 26553 32.5 -10530
further risk for both the Jun-10 19452 43.0 25831 12.2 -6379
CAD and inflation. The Jul-10 16013 11.7 26510 22.0 -10497
c o m b i n e d r i s k s f ro m Aug-10 16644 22.5 29679 32.3 -13035
inflation, the CAD and Sep-10 18023 23.2 27141 26.4 -9118
fiscal situation could Oct-10 17960 21.3 27689 9.1 -9729
• Output of six key infrastructure sectors expanded 6.6% in December'10, higher than an upwardly revised
growth of 3% in November, igniting expectations of a better factory output. The better performance in
infrastructure was driven by the robust crude oil (15.8%) and petroleum refinery sectors (8.3%). Finished
steel output rose more than 11%, but cement production contracted 2.2%, indicating a slack in
construction activity.
35
Sector-wise Growth Rate (%) in Production
20.0 17.0
15.8
15.0
11.0 11.2
9.6
10.0 8.3 6.6 6.6
6.2
4.3 3.3 4.4 3.0
5.0 3.0
0.9 0.71.2
(%)
1.1
0.0
-2.2
al
ll
l
ity
il
en
ts
-5.0
ra
Co
O
ste
-3.7
uc
ve
tri
e
od
Ce
ud
O
ed
ec
Pr
sh
Cr
El
-10.0
ni
m
Fi
leu
tro
-11.6
Pe
-15.0 Sectors
Dec-10 Nov-10 Dec-09
• Direct tax collections in the first nine months (April-December) of the current financial year increased
19.47% to touch `2.99 lakh crore (69.53% of the Budgeted target), compared with `2.50 lakh crore in the
corresponding period of 2009-10. During the period under consideration, collections from corporation
tax jumped 22.07%, where as collections of personal income-tax, including securities transaction tax
(STT), residual fringe benefit tax and banking cash transaction tax increased by 10.96%. The mop-up from
STT increased 11.97% to `5,117 crore
from `4,570 crore last year. The Direct Tax Mop-Up (Amt in ` Crore)
government's direct tax collection April-Dec April-Dec
Category Growth (%)
2010 2009
figures are now expected to go up by Corporate Tax 203244 166503 22.07
an additional `20,000 crore from the Personal Income Tax* 92295 83178 10.96
budget target of `4.3 lakh crore on Securities Transaction Tax 5117 4570 11.97
the back of rising corporate income Total
THE CLEARING CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
• The Centre has, during April-December, achieved three-fourths of the indirect taxes collection target for
2010-11. Overall, indirect tax collections grew 42.8% during April-December'10, at `2.37 lakh crore (`1.66
lakh crore). Net indirect tax collections in December'10, grew 45.9% to `29,437 crore (`20,175 crore),
higher than the collection of `27,495 crore in previous month. While customs duty collections grew
75.7%, excise duty collection for the same month grew 29.5%. Service tax collections grew 27% in
December'10, to `5,154 crore (`4,057 crore). Boosted by higher revenue mop-up, the government has
upped indirect tax collection estimates by 7% for this fiscal, from the Budget target of `3.15 lakh crore.
36
Indirect Tax Collections (Amt. in ` Crore)
Budget Estimate Growth Apr-Dec Apr-Dec Growth
Type of Duty Dec-09 Dec-10
(2010-11) (%) 2009 2010 (%)
Customs 115000 7391 12986 75.70 59402 99830 68.06
Excise 130471 8727 11297 29.45 69747 93281 33.74
Service 68000 4057 5154 27.04 36984 44081 19.19
Total 313471 20175 29437 45.91 166133 237192 42.77
last month.
• After five consecutive weeks of steady rise, food inflation declined to 15.52% for the week ended 8th
January'11 from 18.32% for the week ended 25th December'10 following reduced prices of pulses, wheat,
29-May-10
26-Jun-10
7-Aug-10
2-Oct-10
16-Oct-10
30-Oct-10
13-Nov-10
8-Jan-11
3-Apr-10
15-May-10
12-Jun-10
10-Jul-10
24-Jul-10
21-Aug-10
4-Sep-10
18-Sep-10
27-Nov-10
11-Dec-10
25-Dec-10
22-Jan-11
37
• RBI, in its Third Quarter Review of Monetary as well as the extent of demand side pressures. To
Policy 2010-11, revised upwards the baseline check the further rise in inflation rate, RBI
projection of WPI inflation for March'11 to 7% hiked the repo and reverse repo rate under the
from 5.5%, stating that inflation outlook will LAF, once again, by 25 bps each from 25th
be shaped by the factors which include changes January'11 (sixth hike in 2010-11).
in food price situation - both domestic and
• Industrial output nosedived to 2.7% in
global, movement in global commodity prices
November, the slowest in 18-months, pulled
down by the dismal show in manufacturing
Movement in Key Policy Rates
Reverse
sector (2.32% against 12.3% a year ago),
Effective Since Effective Since Repo Rate
Repo Rate especially consumer goods (3.1% against an
8-Dec-08 5.00 12-Jun-08 8.00 impressive 10.1% growth a year ago). IIP fell
5-Jan-09 4.00 25-Jun-08 8.50
after a robust 11.29% growth in October partly
5-Mar-09 3.50 30-Jul-08 9.00
because of the high base effect (11.3%). The
21-Apr-09 3.25 20-Oct-08 8.00
silver lining, however, is the 12.6% growth in
19-Mar-10 3.50 3-Nov-08 7.50
capital goods production, a measure of
20-Apr-10 3.75 8-Dec-08 6.50
5-Jul-10 4.00 5-Jan-09 5.50
investments taking place in the industry. This
27-Jul-10 4.50 5-Mar-09 5.00 double-digit growth is on top of the high
16-Sep-10 5.00 21-Apr-09 4.75 growth of 11% recorded the same time last year.
2-Nov-10 5.25 19-Mar-10 5.00 Consumer non-durables output declined by 6%
25-Jan-11 5.50 20-Apr-10 5.25 from a 2.3% growth during the corresponding
5-Jul-10 5.50 month previous year where as consumer
27-Jul-10 5.75 durables output expanded by a meager 4.3% in
16-Sep-10 6.00 November, from the 36.3% growth recorded a
2-Nov-10 6.25 year ago. Mining and power generation output
25-Jan-11 6.50
expanded at a rate of 5.97% and 4.6%
THE CLEARING CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
respectively.
Growth of Industrial Production (in per cent)
Category Nov'10 Oct'10 3 Months ago 6 Months ago Year ago
SECTORAL
General 2.70 11.29 6.90 11.30 11.30
Mining 5.97 6.50 7.00 8.70 10.70
Manufacturing 2.30 11.30 5.90 12.30 12.30
Electricity 4.60 8.80 1.00 6.40 1.80
USE-BASED
Basic goods 4.50 7.70 3.70 7.90 6.00
Capital goods 12.60 22.00 -2.60 34.30 11.00
Intermediate goods 2.40 9.50 10.00 10.20 19.40
Consumer goods -3.10 9.60 6.90 8.20 10.10
Consumer durables 4.30 31.00 26.50 23.70 36.30
Consumer non-durables -6.00 0.10 -1.20 2.40 2.30
38
International and held India's growth outlook at 8.4% for 2011.
The average crude oil prices remained steady near The World Bank left growth forecast for the world
$89 per barrel during the month when compared to economy in 2011 unchanged at 3.3%, from a
December'10. The first week of January'11 saw revised 3.9% in 2010, reflecting capacity constraints
crude oil prices easing to $88.68 per barrel from in developing nations and restructuring in
$91.69 a barrel following strengthening of US developed economies, which will be followed by
dollar against major international currencies and faster growth of 3.6% in 2012. Rising commodity
th
rise in US oil inventories. However, by 13 prices seen as one of the major threats in the short
January'11, crude oil prices bounced back to the term to global growth. It expects capital inflows, a
month high of `91.98 per barrel as an Alaskan driving force of the recovery in emerging countries,
pipeline carrying about 15% of US crude output now pose risks to global growth as they can trigger
was shut following a leak. After fluctuating in a abrupt currency fluctuations. According to the
th
range of $91-$91.59 per barrel till 20 January'11, bank, developing economies accounting for 46% of
various factors such as sharp rise in jobless claims global growth during 2010 will continue to lead,
in US against a forecast for a slight drop, hike in with forecast expansion of 6% in 2011, down from
lenders' reserve requirements by 50 bps by China, 7% in 2010. China's growth could slow to 8.7% this
restoration of Alaskan pipeline led crude oil prices year from 10% in 2010 where as India will grow
to drop to $85.57 per barrel (28th January'11). Rising 8.4%, down from 9.5% last year. High-income
by around $4 per barrel in the very next trading nations are expected to expand 2.4%, from 2.8% last
session, crude prices ended the month at $89.55 a year with the Euro region growing 1.4% (1.7% in
barrel as concerns over anti-government protest in 2010) as well as U.S. by 2.8% in 2011 with strong
Egypt spreading to the West Asia and disrupting domestic demand growth. Expansion in Japan
supply heightened. could slow to 1.8% from an estimated 4.4% in 2010.
The IMF, in its World Economic Outlook, raised The US economy accelerated in the fourth quarter
the forecast for global economic growth for 2010, of 2010 to 3.2% as consumer spending climbed by
39
strength in overseas demand bolsters exports and 2010 and the key challenges for the economy is to
pushes up commodity prices. Japan's economy may ensure that anti-inflationary measures do not
expand 3.3%, raising the estimate from 2.1% in “significantly” reduce growth.
October. Ignoring the government's hope of
China overtook the US last year as the world's
economic recovery, Japan's long-tem sovereign debt
biggest economy when measured in terms of
rating was cut for the first time in nine years by
purchasing power. The size of China's economy in
Standard & Poor's as persistent deflation and
2010 was $14.8 trillion, compared with the US's
political gridlock undermine efforts to reduce a 943
$14.6 trillion, when accounting for the countries'
trillion yen ($11 trillion) debt burden. The world's
differing costs of living.
most indebted nation is now ranked at AA-, the
GDP Growth Rate (Quarter-on-Quarter) (%)
2008:Q4 2009:Q1 2009:Q2 2009:Q3 2009:Q4 2010:Q1 2010:Q2 2010:Q3 2010:Q4
US -5.40 -6.40 -0.70 2.20 5.60 3.70 1.70 2.60 3.20
EURO 16 -1.80 -2.50 -0.20 0.40 0.00 0.20 1.00 0.30 -
Japan -10.20 -11.90 2.70 0.00 0.90 1.30 1.80 4.50 -
UK -1.80 -2.50 -0.80 -0.20 0.40 0.30 1.10 0.70 -0.50
Australia -0.50 0.40 0.60 0.30 0.90 0.70 1.20 0.20 -
China 9.00 6.10 7.10 7.70 8.70 11.90 10.30 9.60 9.80
fourth-highest level, putting the country on a par The central banks of US, Euro, Japan, Australia, UK
with China. The rating agency feels that the and New Zealand held their respective benchmark
government lacks a “coherent strategy” to address rates unchanged during the month. However,
the nation's debt. Britain's economy unexpectedly People's Bank of China raised lenders' reserve
shrank the most in more than a year in the fourth requirements within three weeks of boosting
th
quarter of 2010 as construction slumped and the benchmark interest rates by 50 bps w.e.f. 20
coldest weather in a century last month hampered January'11 to rein in liquidity after the nation's
services and retailing. GDP fell 0.5% in the three foreign-exchange reserves surged by a record last
THE CLEARING CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
months through December (the biggest drop since quarter to $2.85 trillion and new loans breached a
the second quarter of 2009, when it fell 0.8%) after 2010 target.
increasing 0.7% in the previous quarter.
After last month's downgrade, the ECB threw
China finished 2010 with a bang, its growth soaring Portugal a temporary lifeline by buying up its
past forecasts and inflation slowing less than bonds as market and peer pressure mounted to seek
expected. Its growth accelerated to 9.8% in the an international bailout soon. Germany, France
fourth quarter (compared with a 9.6% annual gain and other euro zone countries were also pushing
in the previous three months) as industrial Portugal to seek an EU-IMF assistance program,
production and retail sales picked up. China's following Greece and Ireland, in a bid to prevent
economy expanded 10.3% in 2010, the fastest pace contagion spreading to the much larger Spain, the
in three years; that compared with growth of 9.2% fourth biggest economy in the euro area. Joining
in 2009. As per the estimates released by the World China in assisting the region, as it battles against a
Bank, China's GDP growth is set to slow down this fund- raising crisis that prompted bailouts of
year to 8.7% and the next to below 9% from 10% in Ireland and Greece, Japan decided to use its foreign-
40
International Yield Movements
% (U S, G erm any) 3.53 1.28
3.43 1.26
1.24
% (Japan)
3.33
3.23 1.22
1.20
3.13 1.18
3.03 1.16
2.93 1.14
2.83 1.12
11
11
11
1
1
1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
n-
n-
n-
an
an
an
an
an
an
an
Ja
Ja
Ja
-J
-J
-J
-J
-J
-J
-J
3-
5-
7-
11
13
17
19
21
25
28
Date
US 10 year bond rate Germany 10 year bond rate Japan 10 year bond rate
exchange reserves to buy more than a fifth of bonds was a marked fall in the quantum of net liquidity
to be issued later in January under a special infusions, which led to some softening in money
rd
assistance program to help Ireland. market rates from 6.2% - 6.7% (3 January'11) to
5.2% - 6.0% by the second week of the month.
Money Market Review*
However, average rates climbed to 6.9% in the call
Relatively easy liquidity conditions in the banking segment towards the end of the month following
system following various policy measures taken by the turnaround in the cash position of the banks.
the RBI led short term rates to ease marginally. The The ensuing Charts display the movement of short
weighted average rates in the Call, Repo as well as term rates during January'11 and the share of each
CBLO markets declined to 6.54%, 6.25% and segment in the total trading volume of the money
6.16% respectively during January'11 from 6.72%, market respectively.
6.30% and 6.17% during the previous month. There
6.20 6.80
Call Rate (%)
Rates (%)
*
The volumes and the weighted rates pertaining to Saturday have been ignored in the computation of weighted average rate and the graphs for all
the segments of money market
41
SHARE IN MONEY MARKET TRADING VOLUMES
CALL VOLUME
REPO VOLUME 13.77%
17.66%
CBLO VOLUME
68.57%
The following two Tables illustrate the comparative rates across the various segments of the money
weighted average rates over a period of time and the market respectively.
comparative statistics of short term volumes and
Liquidity Adjustment Facility and borrowed `10,76,000 crore in the later half of
January'11.
Liquidity condition of the banks improved during
the month as apparent from the 24% decline in the On the basis of an assessment of the current liquidity
average cash infusion by the RBI using LAF Repo situation, RBI decided to extend the following
window. It stood at `93,071.75 crore against liquidity management measures:
`1,21,934.55 crore during December'10. At the same
• The additional liquidity support to scheduled
time, banks parked, on average, `1,548.25 crore with
commercial banks under the LAF to the extent
the RBI using LAF Reverse Repo window during
of up to 1% of their NDTL, currently set to
January'11 against `2,486.82 crore during the
expire on January 28, 2011, has been extended
previous month - reduction of 38%. Actions taken
up to April 8, 2011.
during the previous month had its effect on the total
liquidity support provided by the RBI in the first • The second LAF will now be conducted on a
two weeks of January'11, when it fell to `7,85,435 daily basis up to April 8, 2011.
crore. However, banks succumbed to the cash crunch
42
Government Securities Market of T-Bills worth `24,363 crore. As part of the `48,000
crore of OMOs announced by the RBI in
Primary Market
December'10, it purchased government securities
The market witnessed liquidity outflows in the form worth `17,508.51 crore during the month, summary
of re-issue of 9 government securities for `33,000 of which is given in the following Table.
crore, issue of 13 SDLs for `8,361 crore and auction
There was no recourse to auctions under the Market securities and the auction of the T-Bills respectively
Stabilization Scheme. The succeeding two Tables during the month.
provide the details of the primary issue of dated
43
T-BILL AUCTION
91 day T-Bill 182 day T-Bill 364 day T-Bill
Date Amt MSS Price YTM Amt MSS Price YTM Amt MSS Price YTM
(` Cr) (` Cr) (`) (%) (` Cr) (` Cr) (`) (%) (` Cr) (` Cr) (`) (%)
05-Jan-11 4500.00 0.00 98.26 7.1027 1500.00 0.00 96.49 7.2954 - - - -
12-Jan-11 4500.00 0.00 98.25 7.1443 - - - - 1000.00 0.00 93.04 7.5012
19-Jan-11 4502.00 0.00 98.24 7.1858 1500.50 0.00 96.42 7.4462 - - - -
25-Jan-11 5860.90 0.00 98.23 7.2274 - - - - 1000.00 0.00 92.96 7.5940
Total 19362.90 0.00 3000.50 0.00 2000.00 0.00
The Charts shown below gives the trend in the cut- Bills respectively.
off yields of the 91-day, 182-day and 364-day T-
6.50
6.00
5.50
5.00
4.50
4.00
3.50
3.00
Ju 06
Ju 07
N -06
N -0 7
N -0 8
N -09
N -10
Ja 07
Ja 08
Ja 06
Ja 09
Ja 10
Ap 07
M 08
M 09
M 10
11
Au -07
Ju 08
Ju 09
Au -06
Au 09
Au 08
Au 10
Ju 10
-
r-
-
-
r-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
-
-
n-
n-
-
n-
g
g
ov
g
ov
g
ov
ov
n
ov
ar
ar
ar
Ap
10.00
9.00
8.00
7.00
(%)
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
Ju - 08
Ju - 09
Ju 10
Ju 06
Ju 07
Ja 07
A p 07
M 10
Ja 6
Ja 08
Ja 9
Ja 0
M 08
M 09
11
Au 0 6
N -07
Au 0 8
N -08
Au 0 9
N -10
N -06
Au -0 7
N -09
Au -1 0
-0
-0
-1
r-
r-
ar-
-
-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
ar
ar
ov
ov
ov
ov
ov
g
g
g
g
n
n
Ap
44
Secondary Market `1,11,042 crore (January'11) from `1,27,812 crore
(December'10) - decline of 13%. Volumes settled by
The total trading volume on the NDS-OM
CCIL in January'11 can be seen from the Chart
platform fell for the fifth consecutive month to
exhibited below.
SETTLEMENT VOLUMES
11000.00
Volume ( ` Crore)
9000.00
7000.00
5000.00
3000.00
1000.00
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
Ja
Ja
Ja
-J a
-J a
-J a
-J a
-J a
-J a
-J a
3-
7-
5-
11
17
21
28
13
19
25
7 trades totaling `60 crore of “7.17% G.S. 2015”, 34 totaling `110 crore of “8.13% G.S. 2022” were
trades of “7.99% G.S. 2017” for `215 crore, 3 trades conducted in the "When Issued" Market during the
of “8.08% G.S. 2022” for `15 crore and 12 trades month.
45
10-YR YIELD MOVEMENT
8.2500
8.2100
8.1700
8.1300
(%)
8.0900
8.0500
8.0100
7.9700
7.9300
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
- Ja
- Ja
- Ja
- Ja
-Ja
-Ja
-Ja
-Ja
-Ja
-Ja
-Ja
3-
5-
7-
9-
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
Date
The trend in the average yield spread over a period between 75.39 bps and 118.71 bps during the month,
of time, which increased marginally from 71.81- is illustrated in the following Chart.
THE CLEARING CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
1 YR - 10 YR SPREAD
350
300
250
200
(bps)
150
100
50
0
-50
Apr-05
Aug-06
Apr-08
Aug-10
Nov-09
Feb-10
Jun-05
Sep-05
Dec-05
Nov-06
Feb-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Jun-09
Nov-10
Jan-11
Sep-09
May-06
May-10
Mar-06
May-07
Mar-09
Spread (1-10yr)
46
Foreign Exchange Market currency once again declined to `45.70 by the end
of the third week of January'11, tracking sharp sell-
The USD-INR exchange rate oscillated between
off in domestic shares on account of China's rate
`45.95 per dollar and `44.67 a dollar with an
hike, some weak numbers from corporate India,
average rate of `45.39 per dollar and standard
wholesale inflation number of 8.43% for
deviation of 30 paise during January'11. Higher
December'10 and rate hike by the RBI. After
dollar purchases to pay for costlier crude oil
fluctuating close to `45.50 per dollar, rupee
imports, speculation over record current account
weakened to the month low of `45.95 a dollar (31
st
th
dollar by 10 January'11. However, the Indian Table (A) gives the analysis of the rupee movement
rupee climbed to `45.13 a dollar (13 January'11) in against major currencies and the exchange rate
th
anticipation that demand for emerging market prevailing on the last working day of the month
assets will improve as concern over Europe's debt over a period of time is provided in Table (B). The
crisis abates following a pledge by Japan to buy movement of the rupee against major currencies is
euro-region debt. Reversing the trend, Indian depicted in the following Chart.
47
RUPEE VIS-A-VIS MAJOR INTERNATIONAL CURRENCIES
56.00
72.00 55.00
54.00
Pound Sterling/Euro 70.00
US Dollar/Jap Yen
53.00
68.00 52.00
51.00
66.00
50.00
64.00 49.00
48.00
62.00 47.00
46.00
60.00
45.00
58.00 44.00
4- 11
5- 11
6- 11
7- 11
10 - 11
19 -11
24 -11
28 -11
11 -11
12 -11
13 -11
14 -11
17 -11
18 n-11
20 -11
21 -11
25 -11
27 -11
31 -11
11
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
n
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
-J a
-J a
-J a
-J a
-J a
-J a
-J a
-J a
-J a
-J a
-J a
-J a
-J a
-J a
-J a
3-
The movement of 6-month and 1-month forward and 6.14% - 6.63% respectively during January'11
premia which fluctuated between 6.17% - 6.74% can be seen from the Chart given below.
FORWARD PREMIA
6.80
6.70
6.60
Rate (%)
6.50
THE CLEARING CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
6.40
6.30
6.20
6.10
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
Ja
Ja
Ja
-Ja
-Ja
-Ja
- Ja
- Ja
-Ja
-Ja
3-
5-
7-
11
13
17
19
21
25
28
6-month 1-month
48
The month observed sharp contrast in the FIIs' of debts of USD 0.26 billion during the previous
buying behavior when they reduced the purchase of month. After taking into consideration both the
equities and remained net sellers of USD 1.05 markets, FIIs remained net buyers of USD 1.20
billion in January'11 against net purchase of USD billion - a jump of 69% from the previous month's
0.45 billion during the previous month. Where as, net purchase of financial instruments worth USD
the action in the equity market was off-set by large 0.71 billion. The trend in FII flows over a course of
purchases of debt by them worth USD 2.25 billion time is given in the following Chart.
(January'11) when compared with the net purchase
FII INFLOWS
7000
6250
5500
4750
4000
USD Million
3250
2500
1750
1000
250
-500
-1250
-2000
-2750
-3500
-4250
-5000
06
09
0
08
6
08
9
7
0
08
09
11
07
10
6
0
8
-0
-1
r -0
r -0
r -0
r -1
l-0
l-1
l-0
l-0
l-0
c t-
c t-
c t-
r-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
ct
ct
Ap
Ap
Ap
Ap
Ap
Ju
Ju
Ju
Ju
Ju
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
O
O
QUARTERLY MOVEMENT OF FII FLOWS (USD Million)
49
With economic recovery in the rich countries $1.74 billion. During the first eight months of
remaining fragile, FDI inflows to India dipped for 2010-11, India received FDI inflows worth $14.03
the second consecutive month, falling by about 6% billion, a decline of 27.4% over the corresponding
to $1.6 billion in November'10 over the same period previous year when it stood at $19.33
period last year. In November'09, FDI stood at billion.
India's foreign exchange reserves came close to However, for the week ending 28th January'11,
achieving the USD 300 billion mark by the week foreign exchange reserves fell marginally and stood
st
ending 21 January'11 when it reached USD 299.40 at USD 299.17 billion following revaluation of
th
billion from USD 295.03 billion (week ended 24 non-dollar assets vis-à-vis the dollar. The following
December'10) on account of rise in foreign currency Chart provides the trend in foreign exchange
assets from USD 265.91 billion to USD 269.55 reserves over a period of time.
billion during the period under consideration.
USD Million
275000
-500
THE CLEARING CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
250000 -5500
-10500
225000 -15500
-20500
200000 -25500
175000 -30500
-35500
150000 -40500
Ja 06
Ja 07
Ja 08
Ja 09
Ja 10
Ju 6
Ju 8
Ju 9
Ju 10
Ju 07
Ap 07
Ap 08
Ap 09
Ap 10
11
O 08
O 06
O 07
O 09
O 10
r -0
r-0
r -0
ct-
ct-
ct-
c t-
c t-
r-
r-
n-
n-
n-
n-
n-
l-
l-
l-
l-
l-
Ap
50
KEY MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
TABLE 1: DOMESTIC INDICATORS
2009-10 2010-11
Change
Sr. (Latest (Latest
Item Unit/Base 1990-91 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 over
No. available available
Previous
figures) figures)
Month
National Income
Gross Domestic Product at market price (at 2393671 2612847 3117372 3402716 4465360 4807222 1225554
1 ` Crore 692871 (1) 1870387 1978055 2052586 2208196
2004-05 prices) (7.5%) (QE) (9.4%) (RE) (9.60%) (9.00%) (6.70%) (7.40%)$ (8.90%)$
2 Fiscal Deficit ` Crore 44632.00 118816.00 140955.00 145072.00 123273.00 125202.00 146435.00 142793.00 94283.00 ¥ 330114.00 412307.00 171249.00
Agriculture
Triennium
Index Number of Agricultural Production
3 ending 148.40*** 167.30 178.20 140.00 141.20 139.20 146.70 167.20 173.10 161.20 150.40
(All crops)
1993-94=100
Industry
1993-94 = 284.50 297.80 297.90 347.30 317.90
4 General Index of Industrial Production 212.60* 162.60 167.00 176.60 189.00 (7.0) 204.20 (8.0%) 221.20 (8.0%) -15.20
100 (12.90%) (3.90%) (-2.30%) (13.50%) (2.7%)
Money Supply, Banking & Interest Rates
3295644 3876926 4655831 5579567 6200420
5 M3 ` Crore 265828 1313220 1498355 1719203 2000349 2253938 2729535 2.77%
(20.8%) (17.10%) (16.20%) (14.90%) (10.70%)
2594259 3075224 3732501 4486573 4945648
6 Aggregate Deposits ` Crore 192541 962618 1103360 1280853 1501931 1766628 2087670 3.04%
(23.0%) (17.90%) (16.80%) (14.80%) (10.10%)
1923192 2272603 2690513 3240399 3719885
7 Bank Credit ` Crore 116301 511434 589723 729215 835382 1141701 1496474 2.20%
(27.6%) (17.80%) (13.90%) (12.60%) (14.60%)
8 S C Banks Investment in Govt. Securities ` Crore 49998 340035 411176 523417 653244 726111 704694 771060 966516 1166237 1375704 1459961 1.51%
9 Credit - Deposit Ratio Per cent 60.40 53.39 53.81 56.87 56.23 64.63 71.68 74.13 73.90 72.08 70.97 75.22
10 Cash Reserve Ratio Per cent 15.00 8.00 5.50 4.75 4.50 5.00 5.00 6.00 7.50 5.00 5.75 6.00
11 Bank Rate Per cent 10.00 7.00 6.50 6.25 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00
12 Inter-bank call money rate (Mumbai) Per cent 4.00 - 70.00 4.00 - 19.00 4.00 - 20.00 3.00 - 12.00 2.00 - 4.60 1.50 - 5.90 4.75 - 8.25 6.00 - 80.00 2.50 - 9.70 2.00 - 5.05 1.00 - 4.10 4.00 - 6.50
13 Base Rate û Per cent -- 11.00 -12.00 11.00 -12.00 10.75 -11.50 10.25 -11.00 10.25 -10.75 10.25 -10.75 12.25 - 12.50 12.25 - 12.75 11.50 -12.50 11.00 - 12.00 8.00 - 9.00
Inflation
14 Wholesale Prices (Monthly) ø
197.70 210.00 223.60 227.30 250.80 144.10
a. All Commodities 2004-05=100 182.70*** 155.70 161.30 166.80 175.90 189.10 (5.2%) 1.80
(3.51%) (5.74%) (6.68%) (0.31%) (9.90%) (8.43%)
b. Fuel, power, light and lubricants 2004-05=100 175.80*** 208.10 226.70 239.20 254.50 289.00 316.70 320.10 341.00 320.90 361.80 150.10 1.50
15 Wholesale Prices (Weekly) ø
283.40 194.60
a. Primary Articles 2004-05=100 - - - - - - - - - - 4.90
(13.86%) (18.44%)
361.80 151.90
b. Fuel, power, light and lubricants 2004-05=100 - - - - - - - - - - 1.20
(12.75%) (11.61%)
16 Consumer Prices-Industrial Workers 2001=100 193.00 444.00 463.00 482.00 500.30 (3.85) 519.50 (3.84) 119.00μ 127.00μ 137.00μ 148.00μ 170.00μ 185.00μ 3.00
Balance of Trade****
106121 140238 181368 235911 287759 278681 (- 246724
17 Value of Imports US$ Million 24073 50536 51413 60157 75,400 11.16%
(35.62%) (32.00%) (29.33%) (27.01%) (14.30%) 8.20%) (19.01%)
79594 100607 124629 155512 168704 176574 (- 164707
18 Value of Exports US$ Million 18145 44560 43827 52719 61718 17.41%
(24.41%) (25.00%) (23.88%) (23.02%) (3.40%) 4.70%) (29.50%)
19 Balance of Trade US$ Million -5927 -5976 -7587 -8693 224 -26528 -39631 -56739 -80398 -119055 -102106 -82017.00 0.42%
Foreign Exchange Inflows/Outflows &
Exchange Rate
20 Foreign Exchange Reserves****
a. Foreign Currency Assets US$ Million 2236.00 39554.00 51049.00 71890.00 107448.00 135262.00 142159.00 191924.00 294649.00 241597.00 254685.00 269282.00 3377.00
b. Gold US$ Million 3496.00 2725.00 3047.00 3534.00 4198.00 4500.00 5747.00 6784.00 9558.00 9746.00 17920.00 22470.00 346.00
c. SDRs US$ Million 102.00 2.00 10.00 4.00 2.00 5.00 3.00 2.00 18.00 1.00 5006.00 5158.00 115.00
21 INR-USD Exchange Rate Rupee 19.57 46.63 48.80 47.50 43.39 43.75 44.61 43.59 39.97 50.95 45.14 45.95 1.14
22 Net FII Investment US$ Million -- 399.00 107.00 202.00 1418.00 3838** 2262.80 6708.00 16039.80 -11356.30 30251.55 31412.26 1198.15
23 Cumulative Net Investment+ US$ Million -- 13416.00 15281.00 15804.00 25754.00 35925** 43808.50 51965.70 68005.40 56649.30 89332.60 120744.91 1198.11
Central Government Borrowings (Dated
Securities and 364 day T-bills)
24 Government Borrowings****
Gross ` Crore -- 115183 133801 151126 180891 106501 158816 227687 188205 306550 459497 447482 35000.00
Net ` Crore -- 73787 92302 104118 108581 46050 85058 146574 106895 230018 313010 320872 24154.35
25 Outstandings ` Crore 536325 674204 1127268 885498** 1018621 1181604 1434086 1706083 2033452 2353211 24154.35
26 CCIL Settlement Statistics****
a. Securities (F.V.) ` Crore 1544376** 2518322** 2692126** 2559260** 3578037** 5602602** 6254519 8986719 5929467 -10.65%
b. Forex US$ Million -- -- -- 136102** 501342** 899782** 1179688** 1776981 ** 3133664** 3758904 2988971 3487830 -3.57%
c. CBLO (F.V.) ` Crore -- -- -- 852** 76851** 976757** 2953134** 4732271 ** 8110828** 8824784 15541378 10206112 2.36%
27 Gilts Turnover Ratio# Per cent -- -- -- -- 176.17^ 87.93 61.54 74.26 102^ 111^ 123^ 110^
Source: RBI Annual Report, Bulletin, Weekly Statistics, SEBI & CCIL Percentage figures in brackets denote y-o-y growth
Notes: ^ Turnover Ratio as on January 31, 2011
Yearly figures are as in March-end (1) At 1993-94 prices
* : Base: 1980-81=100 μ: Base year 2001
*** : Base : 1981-82=100 $ : GDP for Jul-Sep 2010 (Q2 2010-11). GDP for Jul-Sep 2009 (Q2 2009-10): ` 1,108,537 Crore -
**: Figure as at March-end (8.7%)
****: Figures are cumulative for the year .+: Grand Total
Q.E : Quick Estimate ¥: Excluding acquisition cost of RBI stake in SBI (` 35,531 crores)
R.E : Revised Estimate o: GDP data till 2008-09 are calculated taking 1999-00 prices as the base.
A.E : Advance Estimate ¤: Base Rate relates to five major banks since July 1, 2010. Earlier figures relate to Benchmark Prime
B.E.: Budget Estimate Lending Rate (BPLR).
#Turnover Ratio=(Central Government Securities Volumes for 12 months/Market Capitialisation ø: Inflation data till 2009-10 are calculated taking 1993-94 as base
during the month)*100
TABLE 2: WORLD ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Item UK USA Japan Germany South Korea China Brazil India
GDP for 2009 (USD Bn)(µ) 2189.40 14043.90 3064.86 2582.61 1424.61 30067# 3143.00 59232.00
GDP at current prices (2010 Q3) (1) 365920 3717600@ 120527675 628140 292737500 11753.60# 891.60 17093.40#
Net Exports (USD Bn) (November 2010) (2) -12.48# -51.42# 5.16 15.11 0.94 16.85# 4.22@ -11.90#
% change of GDP over last quarter** -0.50 0.78 1.10# 0.70# 0.54 - - -
GDP Implicit price deflator(2010 Q3)( 2005 = 100) 129.24 125.35@ 88.23 111.11 128.86 - - -
Industrial Production Index (2005=100) (November 2010) 90.03 98.57 92.28 109.68# 137.71 200.90# 114.32# 153.85#
Producer Price Index (2005=100) (December 2010) (9) 120.49# 118.95 102.70 108.17 119.29 115.80# 127.10# 155.80#
Narrow Money (2005=100) (November 2010) (7) 152.86 133.57 106.23 147.23(3) 120.98# 265.69@ 211.12 238.86@
Broad Money (2005=100) (November 2010) (8) 175.07 134.93 105.32 139.66(3) 158.12# 264.74@ 232.90 264.38@
Long term Interest rates (December 2010) 3.59 3.29 1.16# 2.91 4.46 - - 8.14^
Short term Interest rates (December 2010) 0.76 0.30 0.34# 1.02(b)(3) 2.80 2.75# 17.30# 7.60-8.50(6)
Exchange rate (per 1USD) (December 2010) 0.64 1.00 83.27 0.76(3) 1145.14 6.65 1.70 45.95@
Key Policy Rates ¥ (%) 0.50 0.00-0.25 0.00-0.10 1.00 2.75 5.81 10.75 5.50
November, 2010.
Short December, 2010.
Base Rate
* Weighted Average Duration of all the outstanding securities excluding the FRBs
Note: Prices in Bold are Last traded prices on January 31, 2011. Other prices are CCIL Model Prices
Duration is calculated considering January 31, 2011 as settlement date.
Duration
1 Modified Duration =
1 + Yield/2
2 V+ denotes the price due to 100 bps increase in yield; V- denotes the price due to 100 bps decrease in yield.
(V - ) + (V + ) - 2P0
3 Convexity = Where P0 denotes the current price before any change in yield.
P0 x (0.01 ) 2
4 Price Change Due to Modified Duration for 100bps (%) = Dur mod x ( 0 . 01) x 100 (A)
2
5 Price Change Due to Convexity for 100bps (%) = Convexity x ( 0 . 01) x 100 (B)
6 Expected price Change due to Duration and Convexity Effect (%) = (A) + (B)
V + - P0
7 Actual Change for 100bps (%) = x 100
P0
8 PV01 denotes the difference between the actual price and the price of the security for 1 bp change in the yield.
60
Market
Sr. Issue Maturity Outstanding Capitali- Yield
ISIN No. Security Price
No. Date Date (` Crore) zation (%)
(` Crore)
27 IN002010Y026 182 DTB 06-Aug-10 04-Feb-11 1500.00 1499 99.93 6.08
28 IN002010Y026 182 DTB 20-Aug-10 18-Feb-11 2000.00 1994 99.69 6.29
29 IN002010Y026 182 DTB 03-Sep-10 04-Mar-11 1500.00 1492 99.44 6.47
30 IN002010Y026 182 DTB 17-Sep-10 18-Mar-11 1500.00 1488 99.17 6.63
31 IN002010Y026 182 DTB 01-Oct-10 01-Apr-11 1500.00 1484 98.92 6.64
32 IN002010Y026 182 DTB 15-Oct-10 15-Apr-11 1000.00 986 98.62 6.89
33 IN002010Y026 182 DTB 29-Oct-10 29-Apr-11 2000.00 1967 98.34 7.02
34 IN002010Y026 182 DTB 12-Nov-10 13-May-11 2500.00 2451 98.06 7.09
35 IN002010Y026 182 DTB 26-Nov-10 27-May-11 2000.00 1957 97.84 6.94
36 IN002010Y026 182 DTB 10-Dec-10 10-Jun-11 1000.00 975 97.47 7.29
37 IN002010Y026 182 DTB 24-Dec-10 24-Jun-11 1000.00 972 97.19 7.32
38 IN002010Y026 182 DTB 07-Jan-11 08-Jul-11 1500.00 1454 96.91 7.38
39 IN002010Y026 182 DTB 21-Jan-11 22-Jul-11 1500.50 1448 96.52 7.66
40 IN002010X028 91 DTB 05-Nov-10 03-Feb-11 5375.00 5373 99.96 4.38
41 IN002010X028 91 DTB 12-Nov-10 11-Feb-11 7075.00 7055 99.72 9.48
42 IN002010X028 91 DTB 19-Nov-10 18-Feb-11 4500.00 4486 99.69 6.28
43 IN002010X028 91 DTB 26-Nov-10 25-Feb-11 5500.00 5476 99.56 6.38
44 IN002010X028 91 DTB 03-Dec-10 04-Mar-11 4500.00 4471 99.36 7.33
45 IN002010X028 91 DTB 10-Dec-10 11-Mar-11 4500.00 4469 99.31 6.55
46 IN002010X028 91 DTB 17-Dec-10 18-Mar-11 5000.00 4955 99.11 7.17
47 IN002010X028 91 DTB 24-Dec-10 25-Mar-11 3000.00 2971 99.04 6.65
48 IN002010X028 91 DTB 31-Dec-10 01-Apr-11 5000.00 4946 98.92 6.64
49 IN002010X028 91 DTB 07-Jan-11 08-Apr-11 4500.00 4444 98.76 6.87
50 IN002010X028 91 DTB 14-Jan-11 15-Apr-11 4500.00 4438 98.62 6.91
Note: Prices in Bold are Last traded prices on January 31, 2011. Other prices are CCIL Model Prices
Duration is calculated considering January 31, 2011 as settlement date.
61
TABLE 4: STATE DEVELOPMENT LOANS (SDLS)
State/Union Territory No. of Bonds Outstanding (` Crore) Wtd. Avg. Coupon (%)
Andhra Pradesh 84 60182.77 7.89
Arunachal Pradesh 35 663.46 7.67
Assam 41 10332.56 7.97
Bihar 38 17077.94 7.76
Chhattisgarh 18 2506.89 7.28
Goa 36 2609.86 7.86
Gujarat 61 43262.82 7.76
Haryana 36 13236.84 7.74
Himachal Pradesh 51 8629.26 7.68
Jammu & Kashmir 56 10118.26 8.12
Jharkhand 38 7746.61 7.67
Karnataka 38 24562.97 7.69
Kerala 66 27743.32 7.83
Madhya Pradesh 51 23326.06 7.77
Maharashtra 63 66250.41 7.79
Manipur 37 1916.93 7.73
Meghalaya 44 1765.60 7.87
Mizoram 38 1185.55 7.91
Nagaland 47 2900.65 7.84
Orissa 26 6291.02 7.20
Puducherry 7 1387.43 8.36
Punjab 65 26235.90 7.82
Rajasthan 72 33981.07 7.78
Sikkim 28 1235.44 7.78
Tamil Nadu 75 49672.06 7.86
THE CLEARING CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
62
TABLE 5: OUTSTANDING - GOVERNMENT SECURITIES, TREASURY BILLS AND STATE DEVELOPMENT LOANS
Amount ` Crore Amount ` Crore
State State
Government Treasury Government Treasury
Month Development Month Development
Securities Bills Securities Bills
Loans Loans
Apr-05 901997.98 78347.59 218075.65 Apr-08 1474383.32 139593.07 310302.66
May-05 912527.77 82165.74 218375.65 May-08 1475406.64 147979.97 307821.10
Jun-05 929979.88 90331.59 225929.72 Jun-08 1488021.91 132825.20 311085.20
Jul-05 941979.88 83796.09 228320.37 Jul-08 1502365.10 133659.95 313385.20
Aug-05 944979.88 95621.69 228320.37 Aug-08 1503865.10 134160.86 313885.20
Sep-05 957497.26 103942.30 228570.37 Sep-08 1516355.10 135751.52 315762.92
Oct-05 932367.49 105231.80 232340.93 Oct-08 1526056.63 141434.52 318774.92
Nov-05 965451.90 101083.56 232340.93 Nov-08 1548689.18 149632.01 319041.09
Dec-05 973451.90 80417.30 232715.93 Dec-08 1585092.50 145070.40 327486.09
Jan-06 983451.90 72232.94 233077.07 Jan-09 1620512.50 146566.95 338191.45
Feb-06 997121.18 67298.85 234260.04 Feb-09 1675454.50 146762.02 356629.49
Mar-06 1018621.18 70905.72 237984.24 Mar-09 1706082.83 150273.80 369290.70
Apr-06 1020121.18 67072.91 239804.87 Apr-09 1715696.03 163472.50 414068.98
May-06 1029072.84 76150.24 240104.87 May-09 1763993.85 148275.25 414563.33
Jun-06 1043942.84 76537.87 240763.49 Jun-09 1801993.85 146874.80 421563.33
Jul-06 1051942.84 84100.94 240763.49 Jul-09 1852993.85 141338.92 427513.33
Aug-06 1063882.03 92801.37 242221.82 Aug-09 1888993.85 138854.64 437472.91
Sep-06 1072882.03 95251.47 243271.82 Sep-09 1945300.18 141887.94 452223.35
Oct-06 1091856.02 93358.52 243271.82 Oct-09 1975300.18 134980.94 465742.01
Nov-06 1103856.02 99852.39 243473.15 Nov-09 2004300.18 134014.74 476964.28
Dec-06 1123116.81 96859.85 245904.37 Dec-09 2030300.18 134764.74 489096.47
Jan-07 1127268.03 102420.08 247867.61 Jan-10 2029064.40 134753.74 496442.94
Feb-07 1154702.69 108913.26 247472.70 Feb-10 2033844.94 134660.14 509676.73
Mar-07 1181603.52 115473.69 251072.27 Mar-10 2033451.94 137466.34 517405.62
63
CCIL INDICES
TABLE 6: COMPOSITION OF CCIL BROAD INDEX
Sr. No. Security
1 8.13% G.S. 2022*
2 7.99% G.S. 2017*
3 8.08% G.S. 2022*
4 7.80% G.S. 2020*
5 7.17% G.S. 2015*
6 8.26% G.S. 2027
7 7.49% G.S. 2017
8 8.30% G.S. 2040
9 7.46% G.S. 2017
10 7.02% G.S. 2016
11 8.24% G.S. 2027
12 8.20% G.S. 2022
13 7.32% G.S. 2014
14 6.35% G.S. 2020
15 6.49% G.S. 2015
16 8.28% G.S. 2032
17 8.33% G.S. 2036
18 7.37% G.S. 2014
19 7.27% G.S. 2013
20 7.95% G.S. 2032
1100 1500
1050
1400
1000
1300
950
TRI
PRI
900 1200
850
1100
800
1000
750
700 900
D e c -0 3
M a y -0 4
M a y -0 5
M a y -0 6
M a y -0 7
M a y -0 8
M a y -0 9
J a n -0 5
J a n -0 6
J a n -0 7
J a n -0 8
J a n -0 9
J a n -1 0
M a y -1 0
J a n -1 1
S e p -0 4
S e p -0 5
S e p -0 6
S e p -0 7
S e p -0 9
S e p -1 0
S e p -0 8
CCIL BROAD PRI CCIL LIQUID PRI CCIL BROAD TRI CCIL LIQUID TRI
64
PRI
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
1000
1050
700
750
800
850
900
950
Ja n - 0 4
D ec-03
M ay-0 4
M ay-04
S ep -0 4
Sep -04
Ja n - 0 5
Jan -05
M ay-05 M ay-0 5
Sep -05 S ep -0 5
Jan -06 Ja n - 0 6
CASBI PRI
M ay-06 M ay-0 6
Sep -06
S ep -0 6
Jan -09 S ep -0 8
CHART 2: MOVEMENT OF CCIL T-BILL INDEX (JAN'04 - JAN'11)
M ay-09 Ja n - 0 9
CASBI TRI
Sep -09 M ay-0 9
Jan -10
S ep -0 9
M ay-10
Ja n - 1 0
CCIL Equal Weight Index
Sep -10
M ay-1 0
Jan -11
CHART 3: MOVEMENT OF CCIL ALL SOVEREIGN BONDS INDEX (JAN'04 - JAN'11)
S ep -1 0
900
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
1350
Ja n - 1 1
TRI
65
66
THE CLEARING CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
PRI TRI
PRI
1000
1075
1150
1225
1300
1375
1450
850
925
1000
1050
1100
1150
850
900
950
1000
1050
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
D ec -03
Ja n-0 7 Dec-03
Ma y-04
May-04
M ay-0 7 Sep-04 Sep-04
Upto 5 Years
Ja n-05 Jan-05
S ep-0 7
Upto 5 Years
Ma y-05 May-05
Ja n-0 8 Sep-05
Sep -05
Jan-06
Ja n -06
M a y-0 8 May-06
5-10 Years
Ma y-06
Sep-06
5-10 Years
S ep-0 8 Sep-06
Jan-07
10-15 Years
Ja n -08 May-08
15-20 Years
Ma y -09
Jan-10
S ep-1 0
CHART4B: MOVEMENT OF CCIL TENOR INDEX TRI (JAN'04 - JAN'11)
Sep -09
CHART 4A: MOVEMENT OF CCIL TENOR INDEX PRI (JAN'04 - JAN'11)
May-10
Ja n -10 Sep-10
Ja n-1 1
M a y-10 Jan-11
950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
Sep -10
20-30 Years
20-30 Years
TRI Ja n -11
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0
Sep-06 Jan-04
Dec-06 May-04
Sep-04
Mar-07
Jan-05
Jun-07
May-05
Sep-07
Sep-05
Nov-07 Jan-06
Feb-08 May-06
May-08 Sep-06
Jan-07
Aug-08
May-07
Nov-08
Sep-07
Feb-09
Jan-08
CCBOR 10.00 A.M.
May-09
May-08
CHART 7: MOVEMENT OF CCIL MIBOR (JAN'06 - JAN'11)
CHART 6: MOVEMENT OF CCIL CCBOR (JAN'04 - JAN'11)
Oct-09 Jan-09
Jan-10 May-09
Sep-09
Apr-10
Jan-10
Jul-10
May-10
Oct-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
Jan-11
67
TABLE 7: PERFORMANCE OF CCIL INDICES AS AT END OF JANUARY 2011
CCIL Indices One Month Three Months Six Months Year
Bond Index Broad TRI -0.3445 0.5747 1.2615 3.0517
Bond Index Broad PRI -1.0664 -0.6964 -1.4763 -2.9610
Bond Index Liquid TRI -0.5914 0.7867 1.0632 3.1171
Bond Index Liquid PRI -1.2951 -0.5873 -1.8714 -2.8663
CASBI TRI -0.3333 0.5890 1.1227 3.0536
CASBI PRI -1.0543 -0.6808 -1.6752 -2.9941
Tenor Index (upto 5 yrs) TRI 0.1658 0.5214 0.8944 2.7354
Tenor Index (upto 5 yrs) PRI -0.3794 -0.7513 -1.9409 -3.2574
Ten or Index (5 - 10 yrs) TRI -0.5121 0.6684 1.0121 2.8593
Tenor Index (5 - 10 yrs) PRI -1.3009 -0.5613 -1.7907 -3.1427
Tenor Index (10 - 15 yrs) TRI -0.4926 0.6538 1.3907 3.0299
Tenor Index (10 - 15 yrs) PRI -1.3250 -0.6037 -1.3712 -3.1312
Tenor Index (15 - 20 yrs) TRI -0.2877 0.7980 1.9268 4.2898
Tenor Index (15 - 20 yrs) PRI -1.0397 -0.4684 -0.7385 -1.6339
Tenor Index (20 - 30 yrs) TRI -0.4812 0.3222 0.8712 3.1799
Tenor Index (20 - 30 yrs) PRI -1.3303 -1.1326 -2.2022 -3.1882
CCIL Liquidity Weight T -Bill Index 0.3648 1.0636 1.9274 3.0991
CCIL Equal Weight T-Bill Index 0.3311 1.0123 1.6931 2.4867
CCIL SDL Index TRI -0.4384 0.8785 1.9252 5.2398
CCIL SDL Index PRI -1.2377 -0.9167 -1.6287 -1.7698
THE CLEARING CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
68
(%) (%)
1-
1-
N N
6.25
6.45
6.65
6.85
7.05
7.25
7.45
5.90
6.15
6.40
6.65
6.90
ov ov
-1
-1
0 0
8-
8-
N N
ov ov
-1
-1
0 15 0
15 -N
-N ov
ov -1
-1 0
22 0 22
-N -N
ov ov
-1 -1
29 0 29 0
-N -N
ov ov
-1 -1
0 0
6-
RepoRate
6- D
D ec
ec
CallRate
-1 -1
0 13 0
13
-D -D
ec ec
-1 -1
Mean
20 0 20 0
Mean
-D -D
ec ec
-1 -1
27 0 27 0
-D -D
1SD+
ec ec
-1 -1
0 0
1SD+
3- 3-
Ja Ja
n- n-
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
11 11
1SD-
10 10
-J a -J a
1SD-
n- n-
11 11
17 17
-J a -J a
n- n-
CHART 8: CALL RATE MOVEMENT - (NOV'10 TO JAN'11)
11 11
CHART 9: REPO RATE MOVEMENT - (NOV'10 TO JAN'11)
24 24
-J a -J a
n- n-
11 11
31 31
-J a -J a
n- n-
11 11
69
70
THE CLEARING CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
5.20
5.40
5.60
5.80
6.00
6.20
6.40
6.60
44.00
44.50
45.00
45.50
46.00
-1 ov
0 ov -1
0
7.8500
7.9000
7.9500
8.0000
8.0500
8.1000
8.1500
8.2000
8.2500
8-
N -1
0 8-
ov 8-
N N
-1 ov
15 0 ov -1
-N -1
0 15 0
ov 15 -N
-N
-1 ov ov
22 0 -1 -1
-N 22 0 22 0
ov -N -N
-1 ov ov
29 0 -1 -1
-N 29 0 29 0
ov -N -N
-1 ov ov
0 -1 -1
6- 0 0
D 6-
D 6-
ec D
USD
-1 ec
0 -1 ec
Yield
13 0 -1
0
CBLORate
-D 13
-D 13
ec
-1 ec -D
0 -1 ec
20 0 -1
-D 20
-D 20 0
Average
Mean
ec ec -D
-1
Mean
0 -1 ec
27 27 0 -1
-D -D 27 0
ec ec -D
-1 -1
0 0 ec
-1
1SD+
1SD+
3-
Ja
3-
Ja
0
1SD+
n- n- 3-
11 11 Ja
10 n-
10 -Ja 11
-J a 10
n- n-
1SD-
11
1SD-
11 -J a
n-
1SD-
17 17 11
-J a -Ja
n- n- 17
11 11 -J a
24 n-
24 -Ja 11
CHART 10: CBLO RATE MOVEMENT - (NOV'10 TO JAN'11)
-J a n- 24
n- 11
CHART 11: 10-YEAR YIELD MOVEMENT - (NOV'10 TO JAN'11)
11 -J a
1500
outstanding securities are mostly
1000
concentrated up till the 10 year 448.45
500
maturity, with more than 60% of
the outstanding securities having a 0
0
0
0
10
0
1
10
-1
1
l-1
1
1
-1
g-
n-
n-
p-
ay
ct
ov
ec
Ju
Ap
Au
Ja
Ju
Se
O
M
71
no devolvement, January witnessed devolvement to
Tenorwise share in Issuances
the tune of ` 2,210 crore. The total devolvements 11.11
till the end of January'11 were ` 5,772.65 crore. Jan'11 44.44
33.33
11.11
Jul-10 50000
Aug-10 49000 auctions. In comparison to January'10, cut-off
Sep-10 34000 yields have hardened to 5.88% (3.44%) for 91-day T-
Oct-10 44000 bills, 6.19% (3.86%) in case of 182-T-Bills and
Nov-10 33000 6.27% (4.32%) for 364 day T-Bills. In comparison
Dec-10 23000 to the previous month, the notifying amounts have
Jan-11 33000 been increased from ` 2000 crore to ` 4000 crore in
Total 417000 case of 91-day T-Bills and for 182-day T-bills, the
In comparison to a weighted average maturity of amounts increased from to `1000 crore to ` 1500
11.18 years during the corresponding period of the crore January'11. Notified amounts remained
previous year, the weighted average maturity of the unchanged in case of 364-day T-Bills.
borrowing during this fiscal till January was 11.56 Treasury Bill - Borrowing
years. Similarly, the weighted average yields were
THE CLEARING CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
72
Treasury bill cut-off yields have continuously The bid-to-cover ratio in the primary auctions
moved higher during the year, with the sharpest which edged lower after August'10, has seen an
increase being in case of the 91-day security. Cut-off upward movement after November. Except for 91-
yields have moved by almost 300 bps as of day T-Bills, bid-to-cover ratio has moved lower
January'11 in comparison to the start of the fiscal. during January'11.
73
TABLE 8: SECURITIES & MONEY MARKET (PRIMARY): COMPARATIVE DATA
2010-11 2009-10 2009-10
(upto January 2011) (upto January 2010)
Dated Securities
GOI Borrowing
Total no of Issues (including reissues) 109 105 108
Gross Amount Borrowed Excluding MSS (F.V ` Crore) 417000.00 410000.00 418000.00
Weighted Average Maturity (years) 11.56 11.18 11.17
Weighted Average Yield (%) 7.89 7.22 7.23
Buybacks
Auctions (F.V. ` Crore) 11261.79 - 9113.50
NDS-OM (F.V. ` Crore) 505.00 - 500.00
Benchmark Rates
Bank Rate(% p.a)(Effective Date) 6.00 (29-04-03) 6.00 (29-04-03) 6.00 (29-04-03)
CRR Rate (% p.a.)(Effective Date) 6.00 (24-04-10) 5.00 (17-01-09) 5.75 (27-02-10)
Reverse Repo Rate(%)(Effective Date) 5.50 (25-01-11) 3.25 (21-04-09) 3.50 (19-03-10)
Repo Rate (%) (Effective Date) 6.50 (25-01-11) 4.75 (21-04-09) 5.00 (19-03-10)
Call Money Range(%) 3.71 - 8.06 1.68 - 4.36 1.68 - 4.91
74
TABLE 9: AUCTION SUMMARY - 2010-11 Amount ` Crore
Normal Auction
Month
Dated Securities CMB 91-Day T-Bills 182-Day T-Bills 364-Day T-Bills
April-10 49000 0 28000 4000 4025
May-10 52000 12000 28000 4000 4000
June-10 50000 0 11500 2000 3351
July-10 50000 0 10354 3300 2000
August-10 49000 0 33425 3500 2063
September-10 34000 0 13500 4500 2000
October-10 44000 0 18409 3000 4042
November-10 33000 0 22450 4500 4000
December-10 23000 0 22000 2000 3000
January-11 33000 0 19363 3001 2000
2010-11 417000 12000 207001 33801 30482
Note: No MSS auctions during the year.
90000
70000
50000
(Amount ` Crore)
30000
10000
-10000
Oct-10
Oct-06
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-09
Jan-11
Jan-08
Jan-07
Jan-09
Jan-10
Apr-06
Apr-08
Jul-10
Jul-06
Apr-07
Jul-07
Jul-08
Apr-09
Jul-09
Apr-10
-30000
-50000
-70000
-90000
Borrowing Redemption
10000
5000
(Amount in USD Million)
0
Dec-07
Mar-09
Aug-09
Apr-06
Sep-06
Feb-07
Jul-07
May-08
Oct-08
Jan-10
Jun-10
Nov-10
-5000
-10000
-15000
-20000
Month
-25000
Purchase Sale
75
76
THE CLEARING CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
STATISTICS
TABLE 10: CCIL SETTLEMENT VOLUMES Amount ` Crore
Outright Repo Forex* CBLO**
Settlement Volume Avg. Vol
Period No of Avg. No of Avg. No of Avg. No of Avg.
Volume Avg. Vol Volume Avg. Vol (USD (USD Volume Avg. Vol
trades Trades trades Trades trades Trades trades Trades
Million) Million)
2002-03 191843 1076147 646 3623 11672 468229 39 1577 100232 136102 1101 1496 159 852 3 16
2003-04 243585 1575133 820 5303 20927 943189 71 3208 330517 501342 1425 2161 3060 76851 10 262
2004-05 160682 1134222 550 3884 24364 1557907 83 5335 466327 899782 1976 3813 29351 976790 101 3345
2005-06 125509 864751 467 3215 25673 1694509 88 5803 489649 1179688 2084 5020 67463 2953134 229 10045
2006-07 137100 1021536 562 4187 29008 2556501 99 8755 606808 1776981 2550 7466 85881 4732271 292 16096
2007-08 188843 1653851 765 6696 26612 3948751 91 13523 757074 3133665 3181 13167 113277 8110828 385 27588
2008-09 245964 2160233 1047 9192 24280 4094286 85 14266 837520 3758904 3657 16414 118941 8824784 414 30748
2009-10 316956 2913890 1332 12243 28651 6072829 101 21308 883949 2988971 3843 12996 142052 15541378 498 54531
Apr-10 26566 269331 1398 14175 2257 467332 98 20319 88492 311594 4657 16400 11807 1170497 513 50891
May-10 45586 418093 2279 20905 2357 422637 98 17610 94827 316783 4991 16673 10958 1014579 457 42274
Jun-10 38869 348132 1767 15824 1956 246496 75 9481 106054 350142 4821 15916 11907 808928 458 31113
Jul-10 24697 231917 1176 11044 2390 312297 92 12011 91778 308188 4370 14676 11156 756653 429 29102
Aug-10 31101 282295 1481 13443 2134 388768 85 15551 89272 346491 4251 16500 13508 1129515 540 45181
Sep-10 28977 250498 1449 12525 2244 364877 98 15864 91385 326124 4810 17164 13004 1224126 565 53223
Oct-10 26422 229363 1258 10922 2742 361513 110 14461 110952 424849 5548 21242 14319 1095768 573 43831
Nov-10 20877 167619 1044 8381 2157 239118 90 9963 97218 429932 5401 23885 11417 791067 476 32961
Dec-10 21323 165897 969 7541 2565 324815 103 12993 98475 342980 4476 15590 12556 1094591 502 43784
Jan-11 18741 149941 937 7497 2067 288528 83 11541 100818 330748 5306 17408 12159 1120387 486 44815
2010-11 (Upto
283159 2513085 1375 12199 22869 3416382 93 13888 969271 3487830 4846 17439 122791 10206112 499 41488
January 2011)
*Commenced operations from November 12, 2002, Cash and Tom settlement is with effect from February 5, 2004.
** Commenced operations from January 20, 2003.
TABLE 11: CATEGORYWISE BUYING ACTIVITY Market Share (%)
CBLO NDS-Call
Category Outright Reverse Repo Forex IRS-MIBOR IRS-MIFOR
Lending Lending
Co-operative Banks 2.52 0.07 0.35 3.83 0.14 - -
Financial Institutions 0.35 0.03 0.46 - 0.01 - -
Foreign Banks 35.93 19.27 0.73 10.37 53.39 85.55 94.69
Insurance Companies 1.19 4.88 8.23 - - - -
Mutual Funds 6.27 61.13 80.24 - - - -
Other Corporates 3.33 0.07 1.32 - - - -
Primary Dealers 15.55 2.95 0.09 0.03 - 5.88 0.00
Private Sector Banks 10.84 8.68 0.51 4.70 18.37 7.56 5.31
Public Sector Banks 24.01 2.91 8.07 81.08 28.09 1.01 0.00
CBLO NDS-Call
Category Outright Repo Forex IRS-MIBOR IRS-MIFOR
Borrowing Borrowing
Co-operative Banks 2.42 5.68 5.18 0.47 0.14 - -
Financial Institutions 0.15 0.00 3.59 - 0.02 - -
Foreign Banks 35.66 26.54 14.48 23.28 53.91 82.61 74.91
Insurance Companies 1.52 0.00 0.01 - - - -
Mutual Funds 6.00 0.00 0.52 - - - -
Other Corporates 0.24 0.00 9.85 - - - -
Primary Dealers 23.53 19.92 2.57 11.16 - 8.43 0.00
Private Sector Banks 11.03 34.63 18.03 38.24 17.58 7.74 25.09
Public Sector Banks 19.45 13.24 45.78 26.85 28.35 1.23 0.00
77
GOVERNMENT SECURITIES MARKET
SETTLEMENT ANALYSIS
NUMBER OF PARTICIPANTS: 165
TABLE 13: SETTLEMENT VOLUMES: TRADE TYPE percent
Outright Repo
Settlement Period Proprietary Constituent Proprietary Constituent
Trades Volume Trades Volume Trades Volume Trades Volume
2002-03 80.54 87.54 19.46 12.46 99.58 99.81 0.42 0.19
2003-04 75.82 85.03 24.18 14.97 88.11 89.96 11.89 10.04
2004-05 75.96 81.95 24.04 18.05 81.83 86.21 18.17 13.79
2005-06 78.55 85.37 21.45 14.63 70.00 82.77 30.00 17.23
2006-07 87.78 90.06 12.22 9.94 70.67 85.01 29.33 14.99
2007-08 90.26 90.55 9.74 9.45 70.74 83.79 29.26 16.21
2008-09 89.48 88.32 10.52 11.68 72.60 87.98 27.40 12.02
2009-10 90.16 90.56 9.84 9.44 81.01 94.03 18.99 5.97
Apr-10 90.94 91.42 9.06 8.58 83.52 92.06 16.48 7.94
May-10 92.34 92.54 7.66 7.46 82.73 91.34 17.27 8.66
Jun-10 91.83 92.81 8.17 7.19 75.82 84.99 24.18 15.01
Jul-10 88.35 89.42 11.65 10.58 79.54 89.21 20.46 10.79
Aug-10 89.67 91.32 10.33 8.68 80.41 91.16 19.59 8.84
Sep-10 89.61 90.53 10.39 9.47 78.70 89.75 21.30 10.25
Oct-10 89.67 88.37 10.33 11.63 83.33 91.26 16.67 8.74
Nov-10 89.05 87.26 10.95 12.74 78.26 85.94 21.74 14.06
Dec-10 87.44 86.40 12.56 13.60 80.12 87.84 19.88 12.16
Jan-11 86.05 84.62 13.95 15.38 77.46 87.30 22.54 12.70
2010-11 (Upto January 2011) 89.94 90.22 10.06 9.78 80.15 89.53 19.85 10.47
700000
600000
500000
Volumes (F.V. ` Crore)
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
Oct-07
Oct-08
Oct-06
Oct-09
Mar-04
Apr-03
Nov-03
Nov-04
Mar-05
Nov-05
Mar-06
Feb-07
Feb-08
Feb-09
Sep-10
Feb-10
Jan-11
Jul-03
Jul-04
Jul-05
Jun-09
Jul-06
Jun-07
Jun-08
Jun-10
Outright Repo
78
TABLE 14: DEAL SIZE ANALYSIS percent
< 5 Cr 5 Cr > 5 Cr <=10 Cr >10 Cr<=20 Cr > 20 Cr
Settlement
Period % to total % to total % to total % to total % to total % to total % to total % to total % to total % to total
trades value trades value trades value trades value trades value
2002-03 10.22 1.64 75.71 67.68 10.88 19.23 2.30 6.80 0.89 4.65
2003-04 12.23 1.72 68.92 53.29 11.98 18.40 2.54 6.51 4.33 20.09
2004-05 14.24 1.75 67.12 47.55 9.72 13.59 2.98 7.02 5.93 30.09
2005-06 15.26 1.78 67.75 49.17 8.05 11.49 2.68 6.36 6.26 31.20
2006-07 8.30 0.93 71.38 47.90 12.50 16.67 2.59 5.76 5.23 28.75
2007-08 5.30 0.51 60.70 34.66 23.17 26.40 3.47 6.62 7.36 31.81
2008-09 5.69 0.56 64.57 36.76 20.60 23.40 2.89 5.52 6.26 33.76
2009-10 5.35 0.54 65.32 35.53 18.16 19.71 3.31 6.03 7.86 38.20
Apr-10 4.84 0.52 64.31 31.72 17.62 17.32 3.95 6.52 9.28 43.92
May-10 3.45 0.43 65.25 35.57 19.32 21.05 4.35 8.05 7.63 34.89
Jun-10 4.15 0.49 64.12 35.79 20.13 22.44 4.47 8.48 7.14 32.80
Jul-10 6.21 0.62 60.57 32.25 19.46 20.68 4.58 8.25 9.19 38.20
Aug-10 5.90 0.62 62.27 34.30 19.38 21.30 4.27 7.94 8.19 35.83
Sep-10 5.03 0.61 65.43 37.85 18.05 20.82 3.97 7.72 7.52 33.00
Oct-10 5.73 0.60 66.58 38.35 16.91 19.43 3.54 6.81 7.24 34.81
Nov-10 6.08 0.70 66.23 41.24 17.84 22.16 3.71 7.72 6.15 28.18
Dec-10 7.48 0.83 65.01 41.78 18.97 24.30 3.36 7.14 5.19 25.96
Jan-11 9.78 1.10 64.25 40.16 16.66 20.74 3.46 7.13 5.85 30.88
2010-11 (Upto
5.48 0.60 64.40 36.28 18.62 20.94 4.04 7.67 7.45 34.51
January 2011)
79
80
60
40
30
20 15 14
12
10
5
2
1 1 1
0
2020
2015
2012
2011
2022
2017
2027
2040
2013
Tenor
CHART 17: CATEGORY WISE ANALYSIS OF OUTRIGHT TRADES - NDS AND NDS - OM
Cooperative Banks
2.47% (2.47%)
FIs & Ins.Cos
Public Sector 1.6% (2.68%)
Banks
20.81% (20.62%)
Foreign Banks
35.79% (29.99%)
Private Sector
Banks
11.85% (13.64%)
Mutual Funds
Primary Dealers 6.14% (8.84%)
81
TABLE 18: INTER-CATEGORY WISE NDS REPORTED OUTRIGHT TRADES -
CENTRAL GOVERNMENT SECURITIES (SELL)
BUYER
Market
SELLER Private Public Co- Market
Foreign Primary Mutual Ins. Share (%)
Sector Sector operative Others FIs Share
Banks Dealers Funds Cos (Previous
Banks Banks Banks (%)
Month)
Foreign Banks 60.66 12.27 5.27 13.27 4.71 0.23 2.67 0.94 0.00 49.31 44.60
Primary Dealers 49.05 3.30 14.91 7.13 7.76 1.23 0.43 16.19 0.00 21.72 21.42
Private Sector Banks 42.19 12.88 13.32 8.49 7.20 3.44 0.01 12.48 0.00 11.01 19.38
Public Sector Banks 69.65 13.15 6.98 5.70 2.68 0.23 1.25 0.36 0.00 10.86 6.75
Mutual Funds 58.91 14.17 4.89 11.23 3.73 1.04 2.24 3.79 0.00 2.60 2.59
Co-operative Banks 8.27 9.00 29.95 15.36 0.50 26.26 5.81 4.84 0.00 2.00 2.58
Ins. Cos 19.08 6.87 11.45 37.66 6.36 3.82 0.00 14.76 0.00 1.52 2.46
Others 3.25 27.03 49.21 19.67 0.00 0.00 0.18 0.67 0.00 0.99 0.22
FIs 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
TABLE 19: INTER-CATEGORY WISE NDS REPORTED OUTRIGHT TRADES - TREASURY BILLS (BUY)
SELLER
Market
BUYER Public Private Co- Market
Foreign Mutual Primary Ins. Share (%)
Sector Sector operative Others FIs Share
Banks Funds Dealers Cos (Previous
Banks Banks Banks (%)
Month)
Foreign Banks 16.60 17.80 3.67 17.48 44.44 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 45.87 61.57
Public Sector Banks 43.47 17.86 0.00 2.42 34.48 1.73 0.05 0.00 0.00 22.67 18.54
Mutual Funds 38.99 35.58 0.00 10.49 14.94 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.67 4.24
Private Sector Banks 18.48 26.28 0.00 13.55 41.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.94 4.07
Primary Dealers 83.92 8.65 2.71 4.72 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.23 10.43
Ins. Cos 27.89 41.83 13.94 0.00 16.34 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.41 0.85
Co-operative Banks 0.00 0.00 0.00 40.70 41.72 0.00 17.57 0.00 0.00 0.19 0.23
THE CLEARING CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
Others 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.06
FIs 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
TABLE 20: INTER-CATEGORY WISE NDS REPORTED OUTRIGHT TRADES - TREASURY BILLS (SELL)
BUYER
Market
SELLER Public Private Co- Market
Primary Foreign Mutual Ins. Share (%)
Sector Sector operative Others FIs Share
Dealers Banks Funds Cos (Previous
Banks Banks Banks (%)
Month)
Primary Dealers 0.00 58.95 22.60 11.98 5.47 0.66 0.23 0.10 0.00 34.58 35.24
Foreign Banks 19.76 24.80 32.09 5.98 16.09 1.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 30.70 43.91
Public Sector Banks 3.05 39.74 19.71 12.71 21.94 2.86 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.55 7.88
Private Sector Banks 2.92 68.76 4.71 11.55 11.39 0.00 0.67 0.00 0.00 11.66 10.45
Mutual Funds 9.43 81.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.43 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.08 0.28
Ins. Cos 0.00 0.00 100.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.39 2.12
Co-operative Banks 0.00 0.00 23.41 0.00 0.00 0.00 76.59 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.11
Others 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
FIs 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
82
NETTING FACTOR
Netting Factor denotes the extent of actual reduction achieved through multi-lateral offsetting of individual member
fund obligations (arising out of every trade) to a single net fund obligation. This process has significantly reduced
individual funding requirements for every member and also achieved reduction in market liquidity risk.
83
84
TABLE 23: LIQUIDITY ANALYSIS FOR CENTRAL GOVERNMENT SECURITIES TRANSACTED DURING THE MONTH
Average Average
Volume Daily Daily
Percent No. of Volume for Percent Market
Days traded settled in Trading Trading
Sr. Maturity share in last Trades January - share in Capitalizati Turnover
Security (in last 12 last 12 Value in last Value in
No. Date 12 months (January, 2011 (FV in (January on (FV in ` Ratio*
months) months (FV 12 months January -
volume 2011) ` Crore) 2011) Crore)
in ` Crore) (FV in ` 2011 (FV in
Crore) ` Crore)
1 8.08% G.S. 2022 02-Aug-22 108 116350 4.62 4851 32308 24.77 26774.83 434.55 1077.31 1615.40
2 8.13% G.S. 2022 21-Sep-22 149 283004 11.24 4361 30344 23.26 33409.67 847.07 1899.36 1444.95
3 7.17% G.S. 2015 14-Jun-15 158 140279 5.57 1866 15140 11.61 51178.76 274.10 887.84 720.95
4 7.80% G.S. 2020 03-May-20 190 754613 29.98 1834 13592 10.42 58659.96 1286.42 3971.65 679.60
5 7.99% G.S. 2017 09-Jul-17 101 104958 4.17 1042 9313 7.14 58568.95 179.20 1039.19 465.65
6 7.49% G.S. 2017 16-Apr-17 61 12510 0.50 809 7887 6.05 53310.18 23.47 205.08 394.35
7 8.26% G.S. 2027 02-Aug-27 202 56381 2.24 1562 6430 4.93 48339.93 116.63 279.11 321.50
8 FRB 2020 21-Dec-20 81 10638 0.42 251 5775 4.43 7584.00 140.27 131.33 360.94
9 8.30% G.S. 2040 02-Jul-40 135 15913 0.63 338 3031 2.32 28204.82 56.42 117.87 144.33
10 7.40% G.S. 2012 03-May-12 214 51117 2.03 98 1517 1.16 32956.04 155.11 238.86 79.84
11 7.27% G.S. 2013 03-Sep-13 198 34452 1.37 114 1273 0.98 45494.00 75.73 174.00 79.56
12 7.46% G.S. 2017 28-Aug-17 148 32024 1.27 38 891 0.68 56201.53 56.98 216.38 148.50
13 6.90% OMC SB 2026 04-Feb-26 108 7126 0.28 92 519 0.40 19155.37 37.20 65.98 37.07
14 9.39% G.S. 2011 02-Jul-11 131 15865 0.63 17 393 0.30 37277.50 42.56 121.11 35.73
15 11.50% G.S. 2011 05-Aug-11 31 1235 0.05 14 300 0.23 2919.25 42.31 39.84 42.86
16 6.35% G.S. 2020 02-Jan-20 168 191730 7.62 29 205 0.16 53824.18 356.22 1141.25 17.08
17 6.85% G.S. 2012 05-Apr-12 114 11702 0.46 11 205 0.16 25778.87 45.39 102.65 51.25
18 7.02% G.S. 2016 17-Aug-16 194 211446 8.40 5 205 0.16 57600.08 367.09 1089.93 68.33
19 8.24% G.S. 2027 15-Feb-27 166 9726 0.39 47 155 0.12 56097.31 17.34 58.59 9.12
20 11.50% G.S. 2015 21-May-15 33 194 0.01 3 74 0.06 4024.64 4.82 5.88 37.00
21 8.20% G.S. 2022 15-Feb-22 179 281614 11.19 9 63 0.05 57632.33 488.64 1573.26 10.50
22 6.72% G.S. 2014 24-Feb-14 32 4382 0.17 1 60 0.05 14839.73 29.53 136.94 60.00
23 10.25% G.S. 2012 01-Jun-12 24 397 0.02 2 60 0.05 1633.16 24.31 16.54 30.00
24 7.47% OMC SB 2012 07-Mar-12 14 400 0.02 3 60 0.05 1992.94 20.07 28.57 30.00
25 8.28% G.S. 2032 15-Feb-32 162 12554 0.50 20 51 0.04 51511.40 24.37 77.49 6.38
Average Average
Volume Daily Daily
Percent No. of Volume for Percent Market
Days traded settled in Trading Trading
Sr. Maturity share in last Trades January - share in Capitalizati Turnover
Security (in last 12 last 12 Value in last Value in
No. Date 12 months (January, 2011 (FV in (January on (FV in ` Ratio*
months) months (FV 12 months January -
volume 2011) ` Crore) 2011) Crore)
in ` Crore) (FV in ` 2011 (FV in
Crore) ` Crore)
26 12.32% G.S. 2011 29-Jan-11 20 3396 0.13 2 50 0.04 - - 169.80 50.00
27 7.38% G.S. 2015 03-Sep-15 109 38065 1.51 5 50 0.04 59766.47 63.69 349.22 12.50
28 12.00% G.S. 2011 21-Oct-11 16 473 0.02 5 49 0.04 3350.16 14.12 29.56 9.80
29 7.95% G.S. 2032 28-Aug-32 77 815 0.03 39 39 0.03 55555.70 1.47 10.58 3.00
30 8.20% OMC SB 2024 15-Sep-24 141 4723 0.19 14 36 0.03 10223.88 46.20 33.50 3.60
31 12.40% G.S. 2013 20-Aug-13 38 236 0.01 5 35 0.03 13152.34 1.79 6.21 8.75
32 6.35% OMC SB 2024 23-Dec-24 76 2690 0.11 6 32 0.02 18166.50 14.81 35.39 6.40
33 7.32% G.S. 2014 20-Oct-14 114 16282 0.65 5 25 0.02 17640.00 92.30 142.82 8.33
34 11.83% G.S. 2014 12-Nov-14 32 419 0.02 7 25 0.02 12839.75 3.26 13.09 5.00
35 6.05% G.S. 2019 12-Jun-19 44 242 0.01 8 24 0.02 9584.73 2.52 5.50 4.80
36 10.50% G.S. 2014 29-Oct-14 9 50 0.00 2 23 0.02 1904.98 2.62 5.56 11.50
37 8.07% G.S. 2017 15-Jan-17 64 831 0.03 11 18 0.01 48608.00 1.71 12.98 2.57
38 8.30% FERT SB 2023 07-Dec-23 24 30 0.00 11 16 0.01 3836.73 0.78 1.25 2.29
39 10.25% G.S. 2021 30-May-21 65 523 0.02 4 15 0.01 29621.05 1.77 8.05 3.75
40 11.50% G.S. 2011 24-Nov-11 22 1847 0.07 2 15 0.01 11331.49 16.30 83.95 7.50
41 6.05% G.S. 2019 02-Feb-19 32 444 0.02 6 14 0.01 46364.40 0.96 13.88 3.50
42 8.33% G.S. 2036 07-Jun-36 69 560 0.02 11 14 0.01 57365.05 0.98 8.12 1.75
43 6.90% G.S. 2019 13-Jul-19 113 12239 0.49 5 13 0.01 41477.22 29.51 108.31 3.25
44 8.24% G.S. 2018 22-Apr-18 26 341 0.01 7 12 0.01 50150.00 0.68 13.12 4.00
45 8.20% OMC SB 2023 10-Nov-23 75 1962 0.08 5 11 0.01 21530.68 9.11 26.16 3.67
46 8.35% SBI SB 2024 27-Mar-24 19 372 0.01 2 10 0.01 9891.94 3.76 19.58 5.00
47 7.44% OMC SB 2012 23-Mar-12 13 283 0.01 1 10 0.01 1992.99 14.20 21.77 10.00
48 7.95% FERT SB 2026 18-Feb-26 37 282 0.01 3 9 0.01 3434.08 8.21 7.62 4.50
49 7.94% G.S. 2021 24-May-21 47 384 0.02 11 8 0.01 48300.82 0.80 8.17 1.14
50 6.49% G.S. 2015 08-Jun-15 111 11416 0.45 1 5 0.00 37874.33 30.14 102.85 5.00
51 9.40% G.S. 2012 11-Sep-12 52 5072 0.20 1 5 0.00 11308.00 44.85 97.54 5.00
Average Average
Volume Daily Daily
Percent No. of Volume for Percent Market
Days traded settled in Trading Trading
Sr. Maturity share in last Trades January - share in Capitalizati Turnover
Security (in last 12 last 12 Value in last Value in
No. Date 12 months (January, 2011 (FV in (January on (FV in ` Ratio*
months) months (FV 12 months January -
volume 2011) ` Crore) 2011) Crore)
in ` Crore) (FV in ` 2011 (FV in
Crore) ` Crore)
52 7.5% G.S. 2034 10-Aug-34 143 944 0.04 6 4 0.00 53669.86 1.76 6.60 2.00
53 8.35% G.S. 2022 14-May-22 17 77 0.00 3 3 0.00 44299.80 0.17 4.53 1.50
54 6.25% G.S. 2018 02-Jan-18 46 319 0.01 7 2 0.00 15159.78 2.10 6.93 0.29
55 8.03% FCI SB 2024 15-Dec-24 5 63 0.00 3 2 0.00 4809.06 1.31 12.60 2.00
56 10.70% G.S. 2020 22-Apr-20 14 3 0.00 5 1 0.00 6949.62 0.04 0.21 0.20
57 11.43% G.S. 2015 07-Aug-15 21 207 0.01 4 1 0.00 13586.51 1.52 9.86 0.25
58 8.32% G.S. 2032 02-Aug-32 105 5266 0.21 2 1 0.00 15121.76 34.82 50.15 1.00
59 5.64% G.S. 2019 02-Jan-19 27 48 0.00 1 1 0.00 8538.50 0.56 1.78 1.00
60 8.15% FCI SB 2022 16-Oct-22 22 52 0.00 2 1 0.00 4892.20 1.06 2.36 0.50
61 6.01% G.S. 2028 25-Mar-28 55 118 0.00 2 1 0.00 11602.61 1.02 2.15 0.50
62 10.00% G.S. 2014 30-May-14 11 139 0.01 2 0 0.00 2453.19 5.67 12.64 0.00
63 12.60% G.S. 2018 23-Nov-18 8 52 0.00 3 0 0.00 15701.43 0.33 6.50 0.00
64 10.45% G.S. 2018 30-Apr-18 13 164 0.01 1 0 0.00 4134.05 3.97 12.62 0.00
65 10.79% G.S. 2015 19-May-15 3 5 0.00 1 0 0.00 2924.96 0.17 1.67 0.00
66 10.95% G.S. 2011 30-May-11 26 1869 0.07 1 0 0.00 12147.97 15.39 71.88 0.00
67 11.60% G.S. 2020 27-Dec-20 6 1 0.00 2 0 0.00 6100.00 0.02 0.17 0.00
68 12.30% G.S. 2016 02-Jul-16 18 151 0.01 3 0 0.00 15414.44 0.98 8.39 0.00
69 8.23% FCI SB 2027 12-Feb-27 9 9 0.00 2 0 0.00 6031.11 0.15 1.00 0.00
70 8.40% OMC SB 2026 29-Mar-26 27 487 0.02 2 0 0.00 4918.79 9.90 18.04 0.00
71 8.40% OMC SB 2025 28-Mar-25 8 2 0.00 1 0 0.00 9217.10 0.02 0.25 0.00
Other securities traded
during the past 12
72 42897 1.70
months but not traded
during the month
Total 2517460 17649 130431 100.00
*Turnover Ratio has been calculated as 12 months cumulative trading value as a percentage of market capitalization of respective security. Note: Prices used for calculating Market
Capitalization are Weighted Average prices as on January 31, 2011. In case of non availability Weighted Average prices, CCIL Model prices as on January 31, 2011 are used.
TABLE 24: TURNOVER RATIO OF CENTRAL GOVERNMENT SECURITIES Amount ` Crore
Cen. Govt. Dated 12 Month G-Sec
Month Market Capitialisation Turnover Ratio(%)
Securities Volume
Apr-03 110290 1097202 870354 126.06
May-03 139912 1196652 884296 135.32
Jun-03 145734 1294358 902447 143.43
Jul-03 148576 1351570 951641 142.03
Aug-03 187278 1438727 971426 148.10
Sep-03 125325 1494771 994508 150.30
Oct-03 171400 1557205 1005834 154.82
Nov-03 86233 1505350 1002288 150.19
Dec-03 87274 1467722 1004124 146.17
Jan-04 81917 1405180 1002211 140.21
Feb-04 66543 1341833 1003259 133.75
Mar-04 108183 1350482 1004393 134.46
Apr-04 143620 1491995 1034562 144.22
May-04 94430 1446513 1017708 142.13
Jun-04 86607 1387386 1005959 137.92
Jul-04 64462 1303272 977016 133.39
Aug-04 64224 1180218 976774 120.83
Sep-04 86987 1141880 973696 117.27
Oct-04 55872 1026352 960159 106.89
Nov-04 38485 978604 948161 103.21
Dec-04 65817 957147 975989 98.07
Jan-05 54626 929856 976889 95.19
Feb-05 64234 927548 988793 93.81
Mar-05 43455 862820 981306 87.93
Apr-05 42905 762105 963618 79.09
87
Cen. Govt. Dated 12 Month G-Sec
Month Market Capitialisation Turnover Ratio(%)
Securities Volume
Sep-06 134614 658298 1102636 59.70
Oct-06 63939 678657 1125373 60.31
Nov-06 158397 787813 1109312 71.02
Dec-06 78497 821101 1161197 70.71
Jan-07 74000 847399 1149828 73.70
Feb-07 60113 871704 1168370 74.61
Mar-07 45449 883248 1189326 74.26
Apr-07 68354 896513 1188531 75.43
May-07 68222 910574 1198425 75.98
Jun-07 92811 968519 1219959 79.39
Jul-07 204550 1138394 1270011 89.64
Aug-07 104680 1153627 1302665 88.56
Sep-07 85029 1104041 1323589 83.41
Oct-07 89923 1130025 1370857 82.43
Nov-07 67776 1039404 1388051 74.88
Dec-07 117893 1078800 1404825 76.79
Jan-08 295325 1300125 1445073 89.97
Feb-08 182597 1422608 1454517 97.81
Mar-08 90544 1467704 1441311 101.83
Apr-08 98286 1497636 1471828 101.75
May-08 129032 1558446 1464561 106.41
Jun-08 101475 1567109 1412037 110.98
Jul-08 83793 1446352 1395509 103.64
Aug-08 111093 1452765 1420737 102.25
Sep-08 153971 1521708 1448033 105.09
THE CLEARING CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
88
Cen. Govt. Dated 12 Month G-Sec
Month Market Capitialisation Turnover Ratio(%)
Securities Volume
Feb-10 149846 2511642 2005496 125.24
Mar-10 129266 2480850 2017871 122.94
Apr-10 208456 2451949 2053001 119.43
May-10 371385 2598945 2101580 123.67
Jun-10 315391 2699332 2123662 127.11
Jul-10 207742 2636084 2115872 124.59
Aug-10 259473 2749131 2150393 127.84
Sep-10 231393 2731394 2204437 123.90
Oct-10 211665 2751305 2214033 124.27
Nov-10 151253 2638880 2252314 117.16
Dec-10 151380 2578613 2272579 113.47
Jan-11 130205 2517455 2281235 110.35
MARKET SHARE
TABLE 25: MARKET SHARE OF TOP 'N' SECURITIES percent
89
TABLE 26: MARKET SHARE OF MEMBERS IN OUTRIGHT SETTLEMENT percent
90
TRADING ANALYSIS
TABLE 28: G-SEC TRADING VOLUMES Amount ` Crore
NDS-OM NDS
Period
Trades Volumes % share Trades Volumes % share
2005-06 38238 220805 56.36 29197 170937 43.64
2006-07 101091 643740 72.95 26943 238753 27.05
2007-08 155259 1160554 79.10 22753 306591 20.90
2008-09 207011 1475799 75.45 27750 480276 24.55
2009-10 268766 1965066 79.35 30249 511269 20.65
Apr-10 23717 177710 80.33 2126 43505 19.67
May-10 40777 315508 84.52 3534 57768 15.48
Jun-10 33856 268398 86.37 3010 42354 13.63
Jul-10 19917 164289 80.95 2889 38668 19.05
Aug-10 27899 225330 84.91 3152 40049 15.09
Sep-10 24598 191856 83.06 2857 39116 16.94
Oct-10 22068 164120 82.16 2392 35628 17.84
Nov-10 18103 128945 84.96 1936 22832 15.04
Dec-10 17549 123270 83.82 2227 23799 16.18
Jan-11 15769 106936 80.63 2222 25685 19.37
2010-11 (Upto January 2011) 244253 1866363 83.48 26345 369404 16.52
91
92
95
Days Traded Days Traded
Sr. No. of Value Market Days
ISINDESC with 5 trades or with less than 5
No. Trades (` Cr.) Share (%) Traded
more per day trades per day
14 9.39% G.S. 2011 8 380 0.29 5 0 5
15 11.50% G.S. 2011 14 300 0.23 7 1 6
16 6.85% G.S. 2012 11 246 0.19 4 1 3
17 7.02% G.S. 2016 5 205 0.16 3 0 3
18 6.35% G.S. 2020 16 195 0.15 7 1 6
19 8.24% G.S. 2027 5 106 0.08 5 0 5
20 11.50% G.S. 2015 2 74 0.06 1 0 1
21 10.25% G.S. 2012 1 60 0.05 1 0 1
22 6.72% G.S. 2014 1 60 0.05 1 0 1
23 7.47% OMC SB 2012 3 60 0.05 2 0 2
24 12.32% G.S. 2011 2 50 0.04 1 0 1
25 7.38% G.S. 2015 2 50 0.04 1 0 1
26 8.20% G.S. 2022 3 45 0.03 2 0 2
27 12.00% G.S. 2011 3 45 0.03 3 0 3
28 8.28% G.S. 2032 8 40 0.03 3 0 3
29 12.40% G.S. 2013 3 35 0.03 2 0 2
30 6.35% OMC SB 2024 3 25 0.02 3 0 3
31 7.32% G.S. 2014 5 25 0.02 3 0 3
32 8.20% OMC SB 2024 3 25 0.02 3 0 3
33 10.50% G.S. 2014 1 23 0.02 1 0 1
34 10.25% G.S. 2021 1 15 0.01 1 0 1
35 11.50% G.S. 2011 2 15 0.01 2 0 2
36 11.83% G.S. 2014 2 15 0.01 2 0 2
37 8.24% G.S. 2018 3 15 0.01 2 0 2
38 6.90% G.S. 2019 1 10 0.01 1 0 1
THE CLEARING CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
96
TABLE 35: LIQUIDITY DISTRIBUTION IN JANUARY 2011
(TRADES GREATER THAN ` 5 CRORE)
5 or more Trades Per Day Less than 5 Trades Per Day
Sr.
No. Days No. of Value Days No. of Value
ISINDESC ISINDESC
Traded Trades (` Cr.) Traded Trades (` Cr.)
1 8.13% G.S. 2022 20 4678 32660.00 7.40% G.S. 2012 10 19 395.00
2 7.17% G.S. 2015 20 1897 15700.83 7.27% G.S. 2013 9 20 355.00
3 7.80% G.S. 2020 20 1804 13502.30 11.50% G.S. 2011 6 9 195.00
4 8.08% G.S. 2022 19 4703 31778.30 6.35% G.S. 2020 6 11 170.00
5 8.26% G.S. 2027 19 835 5747.42 9.39% G.S. 2011 5 8 380.00
6 7.99% G.S. 2017 18 1133 10156.75 8.24% G.S. 2027 5 5 106.03
7 7.49% G.S. 2017 18 805 7997.50 6.90% OMC SB 2026 4 6 45.00
8 8.30% G.S. 2040 16 187 2069.74 8.30% G.S. 2040 3 5 38.60
9 FRB 2020 14 245 5700.00 FRB 2020 3 7 95.00
10 7.40% G.S. 2012 8 75 1145.00 6.85% G.S. 2012 3 5 191.00
11 7.27% G.S. 2013 8 93 960.00 7.02% G.S. 2016 3 5 205.00
12 6.90% OMC SB 2026 3 31 423.59 12.00% G.S. 2011 3 3 44.50
13 7.46% G.S. 2017 2 18 580.00 8.28% G.S. 2032 3 8 40.00
14 11.50% G.S. 2011 1 5 105.00 6.35% OMC SB 2024 3 3 25.00
15 6.85% G.S. 2012 1 6 55.00 7.32% G.S. 2014 3 5 25.00
16 6.35% G.S. 2020 1 5 25.00 8.20% OMC SB 2024 3 3 25.00
17 7.46% G.S. 2017 2 4 225.00
18 7.47% OMC SB 2012 2 3 60.00
19 Total 188 16520 128606.43 8.20% G.S. 2022 2 3 45.00
20 Expected Bond Days 320 12.40% G.S. 2013 2 3 35.00
21 Efficiency 58.75 11.50% G.S. 2011 2 2 15.00
22 11.83% G.S. 2014 2 2 15.00
23 8.24% G.S. 2018 2 3 15.00
24 8.35% SBI SB 2024 2 2 10.00
25 7.99% G.S. 2017 1 4 50.00
26 7.49% G.S. 2017 1 3 25.00
27 11.50% G.S. 2015 1 2 73.60
97
MONEY MARKET
TABLE 36: COMPARABLE WEIGHTED AVERAGE MONEY MARKET RATES AND DAILY VOLUMES
Rates (%) Volumes (` Crore)
Date
Call Repo CBLO Call Repo CBLO
1-Jan-11 6.82 4.50 6.24 2356.65 38.30 7911.70
3-Jan-11 6.73 6.32 6.23 9856.20 12740.72 57430.40
4-Jan-11 6.59 6.26 6.18 11485.41 12825.92 68794.90
5-Jan-11 6.37 6.21 6.20 10407.83 14967.74 72313.50
6-Jan-11 6.32 6.20 6.20 11447.86 13694.05 77059.95
7-Jan-11 6.34 6.20 6.21 10964.21 9928.04 73146.65
8-Jan-11 6.09 0.00 6.03 184.04 0.00 2783.30
10-Jan-11 6.30 6.22 6.20 11916.02 14692.33 67860.60
11-Jan-11 6.29 6.22 6.22 10897.58 12025.78 69253.75
12-Jan-11 6.29 6.21 6.22 12826.80 11959.02 61951.75
13-Jan-11 6.29 6.18 6.22 10916.86 10683.73 65329.30
14-Jan-11 6.36 5.92 5.28 9981.21 38320.98 21094.60
15-Jan-11 6.35 4.50 6.28 833.00 14.60 3609.20
17-Jan-11 6.66 6.23 6.24 13797.08 12395.95 60596.45
18-Jan-11 6.69 6.23 6.25 12152.72 11622.71 53713.45
19-Jan-11 6.68 6.21 6.25 10711.68 10791.94 50543.75
20-Jan-11 6.66 6.20 6.25 11254.48 10388.91 46259.60
21-Jan-11 6.67 6.14 6.26 10222.50 11513.01 39575.55
22-Jan-11 6.56 5.00 5.96 944.45 67.45 3981.45
24-Jan-11 6.62 6.23 6.25 9081.36 12053.49 44785.50
25-Jan-11 6.68 6.33 5.82 9053.68 9398.24 52891.90
27-Jan-11 6.66 6.48 6.48 10365.34 15032.07 45024.85
28-Jan-11 6.66 6.37 5.78 10599.81 30699.45 18745.00
THE CLEARING CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
98
COLLATERALISED BORROWING AND LENDING OBLIGATION (CBLO)
NUMBER OF PARTICIPANTS: 211
99
TABLE 39: INTERCATEGORYWISE CBLO BORROWING
Lender Category
Market
Borrower Category Public Private Co- Market
Foreign Primary Mutual Ins. Share (%)
Sector Sector Others operative FIs Share
Banks Dealers Funds Cos (Previous
Banks Banks Banks (%)
Month)
Public Sector Banks 7.41 0.41 0.59 1.29 0.08 0.69 0.03 82.84 6.67 45.78 55.62
Private Sector Banks 7.81 0.35 0.32 0.76 0.26 0.26 0.09 83.34 6.81 18.03 9.41
Foreign Banks 8.52 1.10 0.77 1.05 0.50 0.16 0.03 76.80 11.07 14.48 6.84
Others 7.73 0.50 0.41 1.97 0.38 0.43 0.06 80.11 8.41 9.85 10.84
Co-operative Banks 11.77 0.44 3.44 2.69 2.20 0.15 0.52 64.37 14.43 5.18 3.93
FIs 9.12 0.50 1.02 0.59 0.21 0.50 0.22 78.37 9.46 3.59 6.76
Primary Dealers 12.67 0.00 1.60 3.09 1.34 0.07 0.46 66.15 14.62 2.57 4.53
Mutual Funds 1.97 1.71 0.00 1.55 0.78 0.00 0.00 83.25 10.75 0.52 2.08
Ins. Cos 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 66.67 33.33 0.01 0.00
MARKET REPO
TABLE 40: REPO TERM ANALYSIS percent
O/N 2-3 days 4-7 days 8-14 days >14 days
Settlement
Period % to total % to total % to total % to total % to total % to total % to total % to total % to total % to total
trades value trades value trades value trades value trades value
2002-03 50.05 50.15 30.96 31.01 15.46 15.95 2.26 1.78 1.27 1.11
2003-04 53.00 52.29 32.68 32.94 13.63 14.37 0.58 0.34 0.11 0.06
2004-05 68.29 69.29 26.30 24.23 5.30 6.35 0.09 0.11 0.02 0.02
2005-06 70.93 72.06 25.73 25.11 3.06 2.71 0.19 0.08 0.08 0.04
2006-07 73.68 75.19 21.58 21.06 4.32 3.57 0.12 0.07 0.31 0.11
2007-08 74.00 73.97 22.86 23.25 2.80 2.69 0.03 0.01 0.30 0.09
2008-09 68.24 68.69 27.17 27.04 4.35 4.17 0.07 0.03 0.17 0.07
2009-10 70.42 69.51 23.07 24.25 6.23 6.00 0.19 0.23 0.09 0.02
THE CLEARING CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
Apr-10 67.74 66.01 31.10 33.60 0.71 0.26 0.00 0.00 0.44 0.13
May-10 70.98 68.95 28.77 30.95 0.08 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.17 0.05
Jun-10 70.09 64.38 28.99 34.66 0.77 0.84 0.00 0.00 0.15 0.12
Jul-10 70.00 66.44 29.50 33.41 0.29 0.09 0.00 0.00 0.21 0.05
Aug-10 70.06 68.05 29.43 31.72 0.33 0.08 0.05 0.03 0.14 0.12
Sep-10 68.45 65.52 21.21 21.27 10.34 13.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Oct-10 70.64 65.98 28.74 33.78 0.55 0.14 0.07 0.10 0.00 0.00
Nov-10 71.30 69.27 20.68 21.07 7.09 9.19 0.28 0.11 0.65 0.35
Dec-10 69.67 67.50 22.38 25.35 7.10 6.91 0.51 0.09 0.35 0.16
Jan-11 63.47 62.95 30.77 34.69 4.06 1.63 0.68 0.24 1.02 0.49
2010-11 (Upto
69.31 66.58 27.11 30.25 3.12 2.98 0.16 0.05 0.30 0.13
January 2011)
100
TABLE 41: INSTRUMENT WISE SETTLEMENT VOLUMES FOR REPO TRADES
Amount ` Crore
101
TABLE 43: INTER-CATEGORY WISE REPO TRADES
Lender Category
Market
Borrower Category Private Public Co- Market
Foreign Primary Mutual Ins. Share (%)
Sector Sector operative Others FIs Share
Banks Dealers Funds Cos (Previous
Banks Banks Banks (%)
Month)
Private Sector Banks 4.58 32.73 0.13 3.80 0.00 51.78 6.83 0.06 0.10 34.63 16.32
Foreign Banks 2.25 12.89 0.63 2.66 0.00 80.36 1.22 0.00 0.00 26.54 37.27
Primary Dealers 27.22 6.11 1.82 1.48 0.19 52.12 11.03 0.02 0.00 19.92 35.15
Public Sector Banks 6.38 23.89 15.16 1.35 0.00 52.85 0.00 0.37 0.00 13.24 6.63
Co-operative Banks 4.06 2.48 6.39 7.26 0.55 79.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.68 4.62
Mutual Funds 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ins. Cos 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Others 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
FIs 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
12-Jan-11 33 2094.00 5.7986 30 5118.69 6.2320 63 7212.69 6.1062 99 11959.02 6.1447 60.31
13-Jan-11 32 2140.00 5.8162 23 4020.77 6.2331 55 6160.77 6.0883 89 10683.73 6.1468 57.66
14-Jan-11 45 3954.00 5.8291 119 26351.31 5.8979 164 30305.31 5.8889 207 38320.98 5.9207 79.08
17-Jan-11 33 2309.00 5.7160 31 6630.16 6.2631 64 8939.16 6.1217 92 12395.95 6.1623 72.11
18-Jan-11 27 2264.00 5.9697 25 4692.02 6.2682 52 6956.02 6.1710 76 11622.71 6.2259 59.85
19-Jan-11 43 2480.00 5.9214 25 3934.22 6.2822 68 6414.22 6.1427 97 10791.94 6.1876 59.44
20-Jan-11 40 2827.00 5.8356 20 2524.11 6.3476 60 5351.11 6.0771 89 10388.91 6.1572 51.51
21-Jan-11 42 2642.00 5.7714 21 3081.32 6.2972 63 5723.32 6.0545 94 11513.01 6.1382 49.71
24-Jan-11 26 2027.00 5.9810 36 4615.89 6.2824 62 6642.89 6.1904 86 12053.49 6.2185 55.11
25-Jan-11 25 2047.00 6.2024 26 3754.96 6.3761 51 5801.96 6.3149 76 9398.24 6.3117 61.73
27-Jan-11 22 2110.00 6.2293 41 6889.60 6.5132 63 8999.60 6.4466 103 15032.07 6.4776 59.87
28-Jan-11 25 3282.00 6.3174 102 19374.18 6.3656 127 22656.18 6.3586 173 30699.45 6.3738 73.80
31-Jan-11 37 2935.00 6.5085 32 4196.62 6.5767 69 7131.62 6.5487 100 12779.58 6.5250 55.80
Total 639 50577 760 133478.79 1399 184055.79 2064 288513.66 63.79
102
TABLE 45: CROMS MARKET SHARE Amount ` Crore
CROMS-Special CROMS-Basket % Share of
Month CROMS in Repo
Volume % share Volume % share Volumes
Jan-09 1315.00 0.29 700.73 0.16 0.45
Feb-09 20781.00 4.74 152.00 0.03 4.77
Mar-09 71273.00 14.35 - - 14.35
Apr-09 37440.00 9.11 34126.80 8.31 17.42
May-09 53202.74 9.88 177070.99 32.87 42.74
Jun-09 42935.00 7.61 315403.77 55.92 63.53
Jul-09 63833.00 12.13 342058.64 64.98 77.11
Aug-09 47357.00 8.47 352887.34 63.10 71.56
Sep-09 112686.00 17.51 396767.00 61.66 79.17
Oct-09 89389.00 16.58 334993.00 62.15 78.73
Nov-09 90984.00 17.56 355057.05 68.53 86.09
Dec-09 37429.00 7.30 390097.84 76.13 83.44
Jan-10 50826.00 13.98 244916.72 67.37 81.35
Feb-10 51093.00 11.73 313516.74 71.95 83.67
Mar-10 65400.00 14.23 286571.61 62.37 76.60
Apr-10 62902.00 13.46 288664.26 61.78 75.25
May-10 83746.00 19.82 234052.77 55.39 75.21
Jun-10 54802.00 22.24 102221.41 41.48 63.72
Jul-10 84693.00 27.12 134610.98 43.10 70.22
Aug-10 59133.00 15.21 167021.43 42.97 58.18
Sep-10 61581.00 16.81 183192.24 50.02 66.83
Oct-10 77271.00 21.50 154693.33 43.04 64.54
Nov-10 61062.00 25.53 90268.30 37.75 63.28
Dec-10 94339.00 29.05 123627.45 38.07 67.13
103
TABLE 47: NDS-CALL TRANSACTIONS Amount ` Crore
104
CALL MONEY MARKET
TABLE 48: NDS-CALL VOLUMES - HISTORICAL Amount ` Crore
NDS- CALL Daily % share in total call
Month NDS-CALL Total Call Volumes
Average Volumes volumes
Sep-06 15503.95 1414.87 169360.71 9.15
Oct-06 32266.00 1466.64 339030.44 9.52
Nov-06 42539.00 1636.12 379206.39 11.22
Dec-06 70307.90 2812.32 363117.78 19.36
Jan-07 88199.35 3674.97 311261.93 28.34
Feb-07 95898.15 4359.01 285681.42 33.57
Mar-07 148204.42 6175.18 314600.65 47.11
Apr-07 212233.11 9646.96 351622.95 60.36
May-07 190944.61 7637.78 275612.98 69.28
Jun-07 189250.75 7278.88 244775.13 77.32
Jul-07 207373.70 8294.95 251851.89 82.34
Aug-07 258991.11 10359.64 341052.65 75.94
Sep-07 234377.65 10190.33 280787.87 83.47
Oct-07 219437.73 8439.91 267483.52 82.04
Nov-07 211303.75 8804.32 261994.76 80.65
Dec-07 192484.15 8020.17 226772.43 84.88
Jan-08 330291.94 13211.68 385224.27 85.74
Feb-08 277776.14 11111.05 314536.51 88.31
Mar-08 221434.00 10065.18 254471.82 87.02
Apr-08 216747.55 9423.81 260155.15 83.31
May-08 239433.00 9577.32 277010.51 86.43
Jun-08 268051.72 10722.07 314787.72 85.15
Jul-08 318357.53 12244.52 367075.98 86.73
Aug-08 280805.75 11700.24 321776.79 87.27
105
NDS- CALL Daily % share in total call
Month NDS-CALL Total Call Volumes
Average Volumes volumes
Jan-10 153654.30 6146.17 185074.83 83.02
Feb-10 123399.85 5609.08 157037.63 78.58
Mar-10 197675.66 8236.49 236384.41 83.62
Apr-10 166651.50 7245.72 208637.35 79.88
May-10 189791.50 7907.98 226402.54 83.83
Jun-10 167093.55 6426.68 210053.48 79.55
Jul-10 225486.35 8672.55 277247.65 81.33
Aug-10 191342.50 7653.70 231984.66 82.48
Sep-10 178831.95 7775.30 219862.48 81.34
Oct-10 207449.75 8297.99 246743.47 84.08
Nov-10 204945.40 8539.39 241982.47 84.69
Dec-10 210360.05 8414.40 253860.94 82.86
Jan-11 188578.00 7543.12 224958.31 83.83
Co-operative Banks
Private Banks 3.83% (4.01%)
4.7% (8.8%)
Foreign Banks
10.37% (8.65%)
Nationalized Banks
81.08% (78.52%) Primary Dealers
0.03% (0.01%)
THE CLEARING CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
Foreign Banks
23.28% (23.53%)
Private Banks
38.24% (33.68%)
Nationalized Banks
26.85% (30.95%)
106
FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET
SETTLEMENT VOLUMES
NUMBER OF PARTICIPANTS: 74
TABLE 49: FOREX SETTLEMENT VOLUMES*
Cash Tom Spot Forward Total Average
Settlement Volume Volume Volume Volume Volume Volume
Period No of Volume No of Volume No of Volume No of Volume No of Volume No of Volume
(USD (USD (USD (USD (USD (USD
Trades (` Cr) Trades (` Cr) Trades (` Cr) Trades (` Cr) Trades (` Cr) Trades (` Cr)
Mn) Mn) Mn) Mn) Mn) Mn)
2002-03 - - - - - - 74423 96483 462370 25809 39619 195665 100232 136102 658035 1101 1496 7231
2003-04 1036 5951 26861 1555 9150 41335 251258 354541 1627644 76668 131700 622691 330517 501342 2318531 1425 2161 9994
2004-05 8747 69882 312311 16178 112750 504325 356382 533015 2389936 85020 184133 835863 466327 899780 4042435 1976 3813 17129
2005-06 12946 154626 686160 21307 199621 885585 371059 585089 2594240 84337 240352 1073689 489649 1179688 5239674 2084 5020 22296
2006-07 14292 233010 1050413 25708 316585 1427018 481702 884740 3993765 85106 342646 1551883 606808 1776981 8023078 2550 7466 33710
2007-08 15118 318055 1279466 25598 409979 1652802 609676 1595080 6426403 106683 810551 3368161 757074 3133665 12726832 3181 13167 53474
2008-09 15633 358244 1651695 26536 498767 2299036 675439 1815114 8263760 119912 1086778 4722998 837520 3758904 16937489 3657 16414 73963
2009-10 15733 363904 1719714 27643 484848 2295137 759149 1467601 6951459 81424 672619 3245177 883949 2988971 14211486 3843 12996 61789
Apr-10 1260 34521 153549 2298 49687 221187 78016 159878 712356 6918 67507 315600 88492 311594 1402692 4657 16400 73826
May-10 1441 36945 169248 2394 48432 221174 84904 179344 819164 6088 52061 241933 94827 316783 1451519 4991 16673 76396
Jun-10 1559 34630 161303 2675 51294 238873 94495 194622 906980 7325 69596 325726 106054 350142 1632882 4821 15916 74222
Jul-10 1523 33967 159093 2572 45797 214670 80848 166922 781751 6835 61502 288733 91778 308188 1444247 4370 14676 68774
Aug-10 1907 50883 236847 3122 68979 321021 77233 163916 762916 7010 62712 295892 89272 346491 1616675 4251 16500 76985
Sep-10 1560 40320 185581 2443 46437 214137 79911 164701 760517 7471 74666 350471 91385 326124 1510707 4810 17164 79511
Oct-10 1757 52524 233293 2500 57334 254739 99372 223852 995193 7323 91139 418750 110952 424849 1901976 5548 21242 95099
Nov-10 1675 47289 212297 2484 56528 253443 84473 207683 931539 8586 118431 539783 97218 429932 1937062 5401 23885 107615
Dec-10 1877 45785 206740 3187 57595 260547 84824 164369 744075 8587 75231 348394 98475 342980 1559756 4476 15590 70898
Jan-11 1692 39691 180052 2727 50042 226798 87992 165805 751380 8407 75210 348657 100818 330748 1506888 5306 17408 79310
2010-11 (Upto
16251 416557 1898003 26402 532124 2426589 852068 1791092 8165871 74550 748056 3473940 969271 3487830 15964404 4846 17439 79822
January 2011)
Notes:
*CCIL commenced operations on November 12, 2002
#Cash and Tom settlement is with effect from February 5, 2004.
Note : Spot figures are inclusive of spot leg of swap
400000
350000
300000
USD Mn
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
Oct-05
Dec-06
May-06
Feb-08
Sep-08
Nov-02
Mar-05
Apr-09
Nov-09
Jan-11
Jan-04
Aug-04
Jul-07
Jun-03
Jun-10
Gross USD Vol
108
TABLE 51: FOREX DEAL SIZE ANALYSIS percent
> 5 mn <= 10 > 10 mn <= 20
< 1 mn 1 mn > 1 mn <= 5 mn > 20 mn
mn mn
Settlement
Period % to % to % to % to % to % to % to % to % to % to % to % to
total total total total total total total total total total total total
trades value trades value trades value trades value trades value trades value
2002-03 21.93 7.23 52.61 38.74 24.53 46.47 0.70 4.42 0.19 2.25 0.04 0.89
2003-04 20.74 6.07 49.79 32.82 28.02 50.16 1.07 6.12 0.30 3.18 0.08 1.65
2004-05 21.26 4.77 44.14 22.88 31.22 47.19 1.94 8.70 0.97 8.21 0.47 8.25
2005-06 20.32 3.66 42.70 17.72 31.55 40.18 2.77 10.27 1.58 11.18 1.08 16.99
2006-07 21.57 3.29 39.00 13.32 32.03 34.85 3.68 11.50 1.95 11.41 1.77 25.64
2007-08 16.67 1.81 33.75 8.15 36.19 29.18 8.62 19.93 2.13 8.78 2.63 32.15
2008-09 17.00 1.64 32.19 7.17 35.41 25.85 10.31 22.22 2.16 8.20 2.93 34.92
2009-10 20.10 2.55 44.55 13.18 25.18 23.58 5.90 16.56 1.93 9.78 2.33 34.35
Apr-10 19.07 2.39 45.70 12.98 25.89 23.39 5.22 13.94 1.77 8.61 2.35 38.69
May-10 18.65 2.40 46.44 13.90 25.21 24.14 5.81 16.55 1.81 9.31 2.08 33.69
Jun-10 18.41 2.39 47.93 14.52 24.80 24.30 5.07 14.56 1.65 8.51 2.14 35.71
Jul-10 18.37 2.35 48.34 14.40 24.21 23.48 4.99 14.06 1.88 9.78 2.20 35.93
Aug-10 18.06 2.00 47.42 12.22 24.10 20.15 5.39 13.20 2.05 9.29 2.99 43.14
Sep-10 17.81 2.16 47.50 13.31 24.92 22.29 5.40 14.27 1.76 8.51 2.61 39.45
Oct-10 17.93 2.00 47.15 12.31 25.03 20.58 5.01 12.38 1.83 8.36 3.05 44.37
Nov-10 18.32 1.78 44.22 10.00 25.41 18.80 6.08 13.15 2.39 9.58 3.58 46.69
Dec-10 19.87 2.45 45.18 12.97 25.12 23.27 5.15 14.03 2.03 10.16 2.65 37.12
Jan-11 20.29 2.61 47.15 14.37 23.32 22.85 5.05 14.63 1.75 9.30 2.44 36.24
2010-11 (Upto
18.68 2.23 46.71 12.98 24.80 22.16 5.31 14.00 1.89 9.13 2.61 39.50
January 2011)
109
TABLE 52: TENOR WISE FORWARD TRADES percent
> 30 Days & > 90 Days & > 180 Days &
< 30 Days > 1 Year
<= 90 Days <= 180 Days <= 365 Days
Settlement
Period % to % to % to % to % to % to % to % to % to % to
total total total total total total total total total total
trades value trades value trades value trades value trades value
2002-03 13.54 16.07 23.35 22.90 26.49 22.35 35.66 37.25 0.96 1.43
2003-04 17.19 22.50 23.97 24.84 22.80 20.24 35.34 31.77 0.70 0.65
2004-05 15.66 20.00 23.79 24.10 19.88 17.86 38.51 36.26 2.16 1.78
2005-06 17.99 22.84 21.79 24.18 17.55 15.18 40.52 36.16 2.15 1.64
2006-07 19.70 25.61 23.78 25.06 19.06 17.21 35.67 30.48 1.79 1.64
2007-08 16.41 31.47 26.83 25.83 22.63 17.22 32.70 24.46 1.44 1.02
2008-09 14.41 23.62 23.82 23.41 21.08 18.59 38.80 31.98 1.90 2.39
2009-10 14.36 20.88 22.08 20.57 18.47 15.06 43.59 41.57 1.50 1.92
Apr-10 15.34 27.89 24.89 25.79 19.62 14.48 39.17 30.41 0.98 1.43
May-10 21.73 28.35 23.21 25.82 17.79 13.88 36.43 30.25 0.84 1.70
Jun-10 20.63 31.27 33.42 31.81 15.92 12.11 28.87 23.31 1.16 1.50
Jul-10 22.74 30.96 31.37 29.51 15.99 14.70 28.88 24.02 1.02 0.81
Aug-10 19.51 27.47 27.55 29.88 17.48 13.46 34.31 28.36 1.16 0.83
Sep-10 17.31 24.80 23.77 24.48 18.34 16.82 38.59 31.40 1.99 2.49
Oct-10 26.00 40.20 20.96 17.94 20.13 18.16 31.04 22.33 1.87 1.37
Nov-10 25.63 47.95 26.38 21.97 14.83 11.48 31.92 17.72 1.23 0.87
Dec-10 18.25 24.55 23.00 20.99 16.64 17.36 40.92 35.84 1.19 1.26
Jan-11 14.74 21.92 22.68 23.07 15.87 13.74 43.87 38.83 2.84 2.44
2010-11 (Upto
20.15 31.88 25.64 24.55 17.18 14.57 35.57 27.54 1.46 1.45
January 2011)
Cooperative
Private Sector Bank Banks 0.15%
18.14% (19.3%) (0.13%) Financial
Institution
0.01% (0.02%)
110
TABLE 53: INTER CATEGORY MEMBER ACTIVITY (BUY)
Market
Public Private Market
Foreign Coop Financial Share (%)
Category Sector Sector Share
Banks Banks Inst. (Previous
Banks Banks (%)
Month)
Foreign Banks 62.28 23.16 14.56 0.00 0.01 53.39 52.02
Public Sector Banks 44.44 34.77 20.67 0.12 0.00 28.09 28.32
Private Sector Banks 44.48 33.67 21.31 0.46 0.08 18.37 19.53
Cooperative Banks 0.71 21.71 56.12 21.46 0.00 0.14 0.12
Financial Inst. 16.35 0.00 83.65 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01
111
TABLE 56: MARKET SHARE percent
Top 'n' Players Top 5 Top 10 Top 15 Top 20
2002-03 33.65 57.73 72.42 83.30
2003-04 30.53 54.83 69.59 79.45
2004-05 29.00 49.45 63.61 73.61
2005-06 30.59 52.45 68.38 78.89
2006-07 31.15 50.93 65.08 73.69
2007-08 39.66 61.31 76.24 84.55
2008-09 39.65 62.30 76.97 85.71
2009-10 33.13 55.14 71.31 81.51
Apr-10 36.57 57.10 73.55 82.41
May-10 34.35 55.84 70.90 80.98
Jun-10 36.41 56.55 73.24 82.85
Jul-10 35.01 57.51 72.40 81.37
Aug-10 38.87 61.53 75.97 83.52
Sep-10 35.84 57.79 73.96 82.74
Oct-10 36.32 59.30 74.89 84.62
Nov-10 37.34 59.80 77.24 85.18
Dec-10 31.93 54.22 71.53 81.26
Jan-11 30.47 52.96 70.40 81.32
2010-11 (Upto January 2011) 35.54 57.62 73.87 83.10
*CCIL commenced operations on November 12, 2002
112
CHART 22: USD-INR SPOT CURVE
Annualised Forward
Spot Rate ( ` )
46.45 5.36
Premia (%)
46.10 4.86
45.75 4.36
45.40 3.86
45.05 3.36
44.70 2.86
44.35 2.36
44.00 1.86
13-Oct-10
29-Oct-10
06-Dec-10
23-Dec-10
22-Apr-10
10-May-10
26-May-10
07-Sep-10
24-Sep-10
05-Apr-10
18-Nov-10
10-Jan-11
03-Aug-10
20-Aug-10
27-Jan-11
30-Jun-10
14-Jun-10
16-Jul-10
Date
Spot Rate Annualised Forward Premia (6 mths)
113
FOREX TRADING PLATFORM:FX-CLEAR
NUMBER OF PARTICIPANTS: 66
TABLE 59: FX- CLEAR TRADING VOLUMES Amount in USD Million
114
DERIVATIVES
NUMBER OF PARTICIPANTS: 67
115
TABLE 61A: INTEREST RATE SWAPS (MIBOR) MARKET SHARE - JANUARY 2011
percent
Buy Sell Total
Category Market Notional Market Market Notional Market Market Notional Market
Deals Deals Deals
Share Amount Share Share Amount Share Share Amount Share
Foreign Banks 3066 81.07 236687.00 85.55 3000 79.32 228543.00 82.61 6066 80.20 465230.00 84.08
Nationalized Banks 67 1.77 2800.00 1.01 78 2.06 3400.00 1.23 145 1.92 6200.00 1.12
Primary Dealers 285 7.54 16266.00 5.88 342 9.04 23310.00 8.43 627 8.29 39576.00 7.15
Private Banks 364 9.62 20906.00 7.56 362 9.57 21406.00 7.74 726 9.60 42312.00 7.65
Total 3782 100.00 276659.00 100.00 3782 100.00 276659.00 100.00 7564 100.00 553318.00 100.00
Nationalized Banks
1.12%
Foreign Banks
84.08%
TABLE 61B: INTEREST RATE SWAPS (MIFOR) MARKET SHARE - JANUARY 2011
percent
Buy Sell Total
Category Market Notional Market Market Notional Market Market Notional Market
Deals Deals Deals
Share Amount Share Share Amount Share Share Amount Share
Foreign Banks 147 94.84 8947.50 94.69 106 68.39 7078.50 74.91 253 81.61 16026.00 84.80
Nationalized Banks 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
THE CLEARING CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
Primary Dealers 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Private Banks 8 5.16 502.00 5.31 49 31.61 2371.00 25.09 57 18.39 2873.00 15.20
Total 155 100.00 9449.50 100.00 155 100.00 9449.50 100.00 310 100.00 18899.00 100.00
Foreign Banks
84.8%
116
TABLE 62: TOP “N” MARKET SHARE
MIBOR MIFOR
Top 1 20.60 16.05
Top 5 57.71 66.16
Top 10 78.60 91.85
117
MIBOR MIFOR INBMK
Month
Trades Value Trades Value Trades Value
Jun-10 3365 260869 88 4290 20 1150
Jul-10 3592 265686 131 7506 23 1850
Aug-10 3619 251476 93 4979 4 300
Sep-10 2413 151719 77 4361 1 50
Oct-10 2411 166580 123 6347 3 250
Nov-10 1762 132504 90 5009 11 1075
Dec-10 2582 165720 72 4393 13 550
Jan-11 3782 276659 155 9450 2 50
118
INTEREST RATE MOVEMENT
HIGHLIGHTS back. The upward shift was more pronounced in
the short end. In the longer end yields however
• Zero coupon yields as on January 31, 2011 were at
have moved to marginally lower levels. In the last
higher levels in the short to medium term of the
month yields were at marginally higher levels
curve as compared to the yields prevailing a year
except at the very short end of the curve.
7.00
6.50
6.00
5.50
5.00
4.50
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Tenor (In years)
January 31, 2011 December 31, 2010 January 29, 2010
8.40
5.90
5.40
4.90
4.40
3.90
0.5 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
Tenor
January 31, 2011 December 31, 2010 January 29, 2010
119
TABLE 66: YIELD MOVEMENT OF TEN YEAR BENCHMARK - 7.80% G.S. 2020
Date WAY
3-Jan-11 7.9501
4-Jan-11 8.0550
5-Jan-11 8.0476
6-Jan-11 8.0897
7-Jan-11 8.1851
10-Jan-11 8.2337
11-Jan-11 8.1970
12-Jan-11 8.1911
13-Jan-11 8.1365
14-Jan-11 8.1747
17-Jan-11 8.2365
18-Jan-11 8.1950
19-Jan-11 8.1591
20-Jan-11 8.1485
21-Jan-11 8.1526
24-Jan-11 8.1987
25-Jan-11 8.1648
27-Jan-11 8.1220
28-Jan-11 8.1237
31-Jan-11 8.1452
8.30
THE CLEARING CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
8.10
7.90
(%)
7.70
7.50
7.30
May/10
Jun/10
Oct/10
Dec/10
Feb/10
Mar/10
Jul/10
Nov/10
Jan/11
Sep/10
Aug/10
Apr/10
10-year Yield
120
TABLE 67: SPREAD ON STATE GOVERNMENT SECURITIES (SDLs)
Traded Volume
State Trades Average Spread (bps)
(` Crore)
ANDHRA PRADESH 47 3501.60 30.59
BIHAR 22 4740.40 31.87
GOA 1 188.60 35.08
GUJARAT 47 4401.60 33.50
HARYANA 4 1600.00 32.60
JAMMU AND KASHMIR 5 592.30 30.86
JHARKHAND 1 100.00 36.28
KERALA 6 273.40 29.16
MADHYA PRADESH 7 1152.20 33.32
MAHARASTRA 101 6625.80 31.78
MANIPUR 3 507.50 31.48
PUNJAB 2 100.00 28.70
RAJASTHAN 10 407.10 28.13
TAMIL NADU 17 978.10 33.15
UTTAR PRADESH 30 3941.30 29.43
UTTARAKHAND 2 147.90 28.23
WEST BENGAL 29 2743.70 29.09
Total 334 32001.50 31.43
Note: Spread has been calculated on the basis of deals settled through CCIL taking into account only outright deals of `5 Crore and
above. The methodology and other information on the spread can be requested from Economic Research Department, CCIL
0.2500
0.1500
0.1000
0.0500
0.0000
0.5 5 10 15 20 25 30
Years to Maturity
Change (bps)
121
TABLE 68: YIELD SPREADS
Change in Change in
YTM Change in YTM(bps) Spread over 1 year(bps) spreads spreads
Year (bps) (bps)
January December January Month to Year on January December January Month to Year on
31, 2011 31, 2010 29, 2010 Month Year 31, 2011 31, 2010 29, 2010 Month Year
2011 7.3209 4.6979 - - - - - - -
2012 7.3691 7.4680 6.1457 -10 122 - 15 145 - -
2013 7.6912 7.6569 6.6953 3 100 32 34 200 -1 -168
2014 8.0010 7.8995 7.1441 10 86 63 58 245 5 -181
2015 8.1156 7.8517 7.3939 26 72 75 53 270 22 -195
2016 8.0606 7.8451 7.3906 22 67 69 52 269 17 -200
2017 8.1361 7.8165 7.4611 32 67 77 50 276 27 -200
2018 8.2333 7.9809 7.5534 25 68 86 66 286 20 -199
2019 8.1493 7.9070 7.7056 24 44 78 59 301 19 -223
2020 8.1451 7.9133 7.5675 23 58 78 59 287 18 -209
2021 8.3022 8.0954 7.7551 21 55 93 77 306 16 -212
2022 8.2272 8.0507 7.8020 18 43 86 73 310 13 -225
2023 8.3598 8.1851 7.9833 17 38 99 86 329 13 -229
2024 8.4027 8.2435 7.9432 16 46 103 92 325 11 -221
2025 8.4483 8.2993 8.1179 15 33 108 98 342 10 -234
2026 8.4830 8.3394 8.1628 14 32 111 102 346 10 -235
2027 8.4034 8.3371 8.2639 7 14 103 102 357 2 -253
2028 8.5403 8.3981 8.2231 14 32 117 108 353 9 -235
2032 8.6209 8.4938 8.2744 13 35 125 117 358 8 -232
2034 8.6305 8.4091 8.2587 22 37 126 109 356 17 -230
2035 8.6353 8.5311 8.2705 10 36 127 121 357 6 -231
2036 8.6385 8.5387 8.2770 10 36 127 122 358 5 -231
2039 8.6493 8.5612 8.2905 9 36 128 124 359 4 -231
THE CLEARING CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
122
CCIL NFS-ATM
IDRBT has appointed CCIL as the designated Settlement Agency for Interbank settlement of ATM transactions within the
members of National Financial Switch (NFS). CCIL started the settlement of ATM transactions from August 27, 2004.
123
CORPORATE BONDS
Primary corporate bond market issuances were Reversing the trend over the past few months,
substantially higher during the month in secondary market corporate bond volumes have
comparison to the previous month. During the improved (4%) during January'11. Average trading
first month of 2011, 82 securities were issued, volumes have improved on the NSE and FIMMDA
compared to 33 securities during the previous reporting platforms, while they have fallen in the
month. Compared to the previous month, Finance BSE reporting platforms. Average volumes on the
Companies dominated the issuance, with a share of FIMMDA reporting platform increased from
60% (55%) of the total issuance. They were ` 1180 crore in December to ` 1264 crore during the
followed by Infrastructure Companies 22% current month. Average volumes on the NSE
(9.09%), Manufacturing Companies 10% (27%) platform have increased to ` 481 crore to ` 385
and Other Corporates 8% (9.09%). crore in the previous month. However, volumes on
the BSE reporting platform have decreased from
The average coupon of the securities issued during
` 176 crore previous month, to ` 69 crore during
the month was 9.35% compared to 9.25% in the
January. Infrastructure Development and Finance
previous month. The average maturity of the
Company and Power Finance Corporation were
securities issued during the month was 6.12 years.
the most widely traded corporates during the
While fixed income securities continued to
month. Average 5 year AAA spreads were higher at
dominate the issuance with a share of 59%, the
119 bps in comparison to 107 bps during the
share of floating rate securities and zero coupon
previous month. Average 10 year AAA spreads were
bonds increased significantly to 24% (9.09%) and
at 93 bps in comparison to 90 bps during the
15% (9.09%) respectively. Tenorwise, securities of
previous month.
maturity between 2 to 5 years have dominated the
issuances. The maturity wise analysis of the
securities issued during the month is given in the
THE CLEARING CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
table below.
124
TABLE 71: HISTORICAL CORPORATE BONDS TRADING DETAILS Amount ` Crore
125
TABLE 72: CORPORATE BONDS TRADING DETAILS Amount ` Crore
FIMMDA NSE BSE Total
Date
Trades Volume Trades Volume Trades Volume Trades Volume
3-Jan-11 54 1382.02 8 200.00 1 5.00 63 1587.02
4-Jan-11 74 1264.52 13 387.70 1 2.30 88 1654.52
5-Jan-11 83 1169.68 11 780.00 15 62.45 109 2012.13
6-Jan-11 114 2398.77 41 1170.40 23 33.63 178 3602.80
7-Jan-11 69 849.70 6 105.00 11 107.40 86 1062.10
10-Jan-11 105 1546.78 26 551.80 13 19.40 144 2117.98
11-Jan-11 120 1070.47 18 346.00 13 28.48 151 1444.95
12-Jan-11 80 686.43 11 237.50 9 20.55 100 944.48
13-Jan-11 116 1236.80 27 593.50 19 58.91 162 1889.21
14-Jan-11 101 996.75 14 365.00 8 4.92 123 1366.67
17-Jan-11 83 1062.70 19 480.00 11 85.80 113 1628.50
18-Jan-11 94 865.28 12 310.00 20 91.30 126 1266.58
19-Jan-11 84 1160.75 16 510.00 10 17.32 110 1688.07
20-Jan-11 133 1683.10 21 1029.10 4 5.10 158 2717.30
21-Jan-11 87 1320.01 7 463.90 17 280.10 111 2064.01
24-Jan-11 88 856.16 10 269.00 13 242.84 111 1368.00
25-Jan-11 103 2040.40 11 306.00 5 205.60 119 2552.00
27-Jan-11 87 1201.82 13 660.00 10 71.68 110 1933.50
28-Jan-11 96 887.74 21 380.60 7 28.17 124 1296.51
31-Jan-11 134 1604.76 24 470.20 9 6.15 167 2081.11
Total 1905 25284.64 329 9615.70 219 1377.09 2453 36277.43
Average 95 1264.23 16 480.79 11 68.85 123 1813.87
126
TABLE 74: TOP 25 TRADED BONDS
Volume
No. Security Description Rating Category Maturity Coupon (%) Trades Yield (%)
(` Cr.)
1 HOUSING DEVELOPMENT FINANCE CORPORATION LIMITED AAA Finance 26-May-11 6.22 20 1542.00 9.4471
2 SIDBI AAA Finance 30-Mar-13 6.60 13 925.00 7.1992
3 NATIONAL HOUSING BANK AAA Finance 15-Jul-13 7.00 6 850.00 7.5566
4 STATE BANK OF INDIA AAA Finance 4-Oct-21 Floating Rate 46 794.00 8.9737
5 INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT FINANCE COMPANY LIMITED AA+ Finance 4-Mar-11 Zero Coupon 15 778.20 9.6367
6 INDIAN OVERSEAS BANK AA+ Finance 31-Dec-20 8.95 18 770.00 8.9447
7 POWER FINANCE CORPORATION LIMITED AAA Finance 15-Jul-12 7.10 14 657.00 9.1237
8 NATIONAL BANK FOR AGRICULTURE & RURAL DEVELOPMENT AAA Finance 19-Jan-14 9.48 3 650.00 9.4759
9 BANK OF INDIA AAA Finance 31-Jul-21 Floating Rate 95 634.30 9.1815
10 UNION BANK OF INDIA AAA Finance 16-Oct-21 Floating Rate 10 628.80 9.0342
11 NATIONAL BANK FOR AGRICULTURE & RURAL DEVELOPMENT AAA Finance 12-Feb-13 8.90 17 550.00 9.0077
12 HOUSING DEVELOPMENT FINANCE CORPORATION LIMITED AAA Finance 12-Feb-11 8.95 4 500.00 9.3100
13 POWER FINANCE CORPORATION LIMITED AAA Finance 15-Sep-12 7.89 7 465.00 9.1755
14 POWER FINANCE CORPORATION LIMITED AAA Finance 20-Nov-19 Floating Rate 6 450.00 9.1760
15 NATIONAL BANK OF AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT AAA Finance 19-Jan-14 9.48 2 450.00 9.4800
16 POWER FINANCE CORPORATION LIMTED AAA Finance 15-Jan-21 8.99 20 425.50 8.9977
17 NATIONAL HOUSING BANK AAA Finance 26-Mar-13 6.25 13 425.00 6.6670
18 NATIONAL HOUSING BANK AAA Finance 8-Mar-13 7.10 4 400.00 7.5683
19 ICICI HOME FINANCE COMPANY LIMITED AAA(SO) Finance 29-Mar-11 7.68 15 388.00 8.2386
20 INFOTEL BROADBAND SERVICES LIMITED - Others 15-Sep-20 8.95 8 370.00 9.3334
21 EXIM BANK AAA Finance 26-Dec-12 9.25 12 357.00 8.8850
22 SIDBI - Finance 19-Mar-13 6.50 10 325.00 6.6588
23 POWER GRID CORPORATION OF INDIA AAA Infrastructure 21-Oct-19 8.84 12 318.00 8.8679
24 HOUSING DEVELOPMENT FINANCE CORPORATION LIMITED AAA Finance 18-Jan-12 9.55 7 316.00 9.6107
25 NATIONAL HOUSING BANK AAA Finance 27-Jan-13 6.4 6 315.00 6.5784
Note: Deals apparently viewed as duplicate deals have been excluded.
Yields have been taken from source.
Source for Corporate Bonds:
www.fimmda.org
www.nseindia.com
www.bseindia.com
www.nsdl.co.in
guaranteed settlement of Forex (Spot & • August 27, 2004 - Started clearing and
Forwards) transactions. settlement of ATM transactions of National
Financial Switch operated by Institute for
• January 20, 2003 - CCIL launched
Development and Research in Banking
Collateralized Borrowing and Lending
Technology (IDRBT).
Obligations (CBLO).
• October 14, 2004 - Govt. Securities Lending
• April 1, 2003 - All trades in the securities
and Borrowing Scheme was operationalised.
settlement got routed through CCIL.
• January 2005 - CCIL received regulatory
• June 4, 2003 - Set up a wholly owned
approval for commencement of cross
Subsidiary Company Clearcorp Dealing
currency deals through CLS Bank by availing
Systems (India) Ltd. to manage dealing
the third party services of ABN AMRO Bank
platforms in Money and Currency Markets.
as the settlement bank.
• July 19, 2003 - Operationalised Anonymous
• January 31, 2005 - CCIL released its Sovereign
Auction System to facilitate Buy Back of
Bond Indices, CCIL BROAD GILTS INDEX,
Government Securities by Government of
128
consisting of top 20 traded securities and • July 2006 - CCIL receives ISO/IEC 27001:
CCIL LIQUID GILTS INDEX, consisting of 2005 certification for securing its information
the 5 most liquid bonds, to track the assets.
movement of the government securities • August 2006 - Electronic Receipt and
market. Confirmation System (ERCS) launched to
• February 7, 2005 - CCIL started releasing enable CCIL members to submit their
comparative intra day money market rates of deposits and withdrawal request through the
Call, Repo and CBLO markets on its website. electronic media.
• April 6, 2005 - Commenced settlement of • September 4, 2006 - CCIL released its CCIL
cross currency transactions through CLS. ALL SOVEREIGN BOND INDICES
• May 2, 2005 - CCIL released its T-Bill index (CASBI), which would reflect the broad
consisting of two T-bill indices CCIL movement of the market. The base date of the
EQUAL WEIGHT T-bills INDEX and CCIL index is January 1, 2004.
LIQUIDITY WEIGHT T-bills INDEX. The • September 4, 2006 - CCIL launched its
CCIL T-bills indices are instruments that eNotice System available to all members for
would capture the market movement in the sending their collateral notices in electronics
short term maturity segment. form.
• June 29, 2005 - The Forex segment recorded • September 11, 2006 - Launch of Intraday
the highest netting factor of 97.15%. Securities Withdrawal in CBLO segment.
• August 1, 2005 - Launching of NDS Order • September 18, 2006 - NDS - CALL, and
Matching System (NDS-OM). electronic screen-based quote driven dealing
• August 16, 2005 - CBLOi ((Internet Trading system for all Call, Notice and Term Money
System for Non-NDS Members) commenced operations was launched. The system
operations. facilitates negotiation between counterparties
and monitors counterparty exposure limits, as
129
• March 5, 2007 - The 'eNotice System' extended 'Clearcorp Repo Order Matching System'
to Non-NDS Associate Members. (CROMS), a STP enabled electronic
• May 21, 2007 - Version 3.0 of NDS-OM anonymous order matching platform to
launched on May 21, 2007 enabling odd lot facilitate dealing in market repos in
trading on the NDS-OM platform, trading of government securities. CROMS facilitates
new securities in the when issued market and dealing in two kinds of Repos viz. Basket Repos
trading of CSGL entities on this platform. and Special Repos for T+0 and T+1 settlement
tenors.
• July 03, 2007 - CCIL started releasing the daily
Spot reference rates on the CCIL website. • February 11, 2009 - CCIL became the first
organization to be granted authorisation by the
• August 30, 2007 - CCIL's reporting platform Reserve Bank of India under “The Payment &
for the transaction in OTC interest rate Settlement Systems Act- 2007”.
derivatives (Interest Rate Swaps and Forward
Rate Agreements (IRS/FRA) became • May 11, 2009 - Version 2 of NDS Auction
operational. module went live to facilitate bidding in
primary Dated Securities auctions.
• September 10, 2007 - Version 2.0 of NDS-CALL
electronic screen-based quote driven dealing • June 1, 2009- The CCIL SDL Index was
system for Call, Notice & Term money was launched to track the market for SDLs through
launched. The enhancements include User a representative index.
hierarchy with multiple user levels with pre set • June 1, 2009 - The CCIL Tenor Index was
role privileges and risk mitigation measures launched to capture the tenor wise movement
such as assigning Single Order Limit and across the term structure.
setting up of exposure limits for • December 1, 2009 - CCIL commenced the
Counterparties at various levels. settlement of forex forward trades with
• November 12, 2007 - The Depository Trust & guarantee from the trade date.
Clearing Corporation (DTCC) and The
THE CLEARING CORPORATION OF INDIA LTD.
130
KEY PERSONNEL/HODs
Sr.
Person Designation and Department Phone No.
No.
1 Dr. R.H. Patil Chairman 66639202
6 Mr. O.N. Ravi Company Secretary & Corporate Development Officer 66639341
8 Mr. Deepak Chande Senior Vice President , Finance & Accounts 66639352
9 Dr. Golaka C. Nath Senior Vice President, Economic Research & Surveillance, Membership 66639391
10 Mr. Pradeep. K. Naik Senior Vice President , Operations (Fixed Income & Money Market) Dept. 66639231
18 Mr. Amol Pradhan Jr. Vice President, Funds and Collateral. Mgmt 66639247
19 Mr. Bijesh Muthirakkal Jr. Vice President, Information Technology Department 66639434
20 Mr. Rajesh Salunkhe Jr. Vice President, Product Development Department 66639248
21 Mr. N. Venkatraman Jr. Vice President, CBLO and Securities Settl ement 66639215
131
Published by the Research Department, CCIL
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Rakshitra Vol VIII No. X (April ‘10)
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Rakshitra Vol IX No. I (July‘10)
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Rakshitra Vol IV No. VI (December ‘05) Rakshitra Vol VI No. XI (May '08) Rakshitra Vol IX No. II (August ‘10)
Rakshitra Vol IV No. VII (January ‘06) Rakshitra Vol VI No. XII (June '08) Rakshitra Vol IX No. III (September ‘10)
Rakshitra Vol IV No. VIII (February ‘06) Rakshitra Vol VII No. I (July '08) Rakshitra Vol IX No. IV (October ‘10)
Rakshitra Vol IV No. IX (March ‘06) Rakshitra Vol VII No. II (August '08) Rakshitra Vol IX No. V (November ‘10)
Rakshitra Vol IV No. X (April ‘06) Rakshitra Vol VII No. III (September '08) Rakshitra Vol IX No. VI (January ‘11)
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