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Project Rationale
• Climate is one of the most
important factors in field crop
production and management.
• Different crop physiological
processes are highly related
influenced by climate.
• Build-up, spread, and the
biological cycles of different crop
pests and diseases were also
climate-related.
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Project Rationale
• Climate variability (El Niño and La Niña) and
climatic extremes (e.g. typhoon, flooding,
drought, etc.) are the major sources of risk in
crop production resulting to variable yields and
possible yield losses.
• Analysis and quantification of possible risks and
yield losses will enable formulation of different
coping and adaptation strategies to minimize risk
and yield losses if cannot these be totally
avoided.
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Objectives
1. To asses the risk due to climatic variability in corn
production systems in two representative corn-
growing areas (Isabela and Bukidnon) in the
Philippines.
2. To identify and analyze potential strategies in corn
production systems to adapt to, cope up with,
and/or mitigate the adverse effects and impacts of
climatic variability.
3. To explore the use of advanced seasonal climate
information in crop forecasting
Province of Isabela
• Isabela is No. 1 in
terms of production
and area planted to
corn.
• Isabela devoted
255,870 hectares of
land producing a total
volume of 0.9 million
metric tons
of corn (BAS, 2007).
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Province of Bukidnon
• No. 2 and No. 3 in
terms of production
and area harvested to
corn.
Methodology (1)
• Project used an eco-physiological corn simulation
model to quantify and analyze the effect of
climatic variability and extremes on corn
productivity in two major corn growing areas,
and to evaluate potential strategies and coping
mechanism to climate variation.
• CERES-Maize Model (in DSSAT, 2004)
parameterized for IPB 911 corn variety.
Input Data: Crop genetic coefficients; Daily
weather sequences; Crop management
information (e.g. planting date).
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Methodology (2)
• Used climate change scenarios to simulate corn
performance under the anticipated seasonal
climate change conditions.
Research Activities
• Acquisition of historical weather data from several sources.
• Consistency checks and analysis of historical weather data
series (i.e. treatment of missing values, outliers, extreme
values, etc.).
• Generation of synthetic weather data to have at least 50 years
of weather sequences (using SIMMETEO).
• Calibration of the CERES-Maize model for IPB 911 variety
using available genetic coefficients.
• Simulation of corn yields for specified planting dates in the
two areas.
• Corn yield probability analyses based on simulated corn
yields.
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Research Activities
• Explore modification of crop management (via
changing planting date, planting density or
distance of planting) as adaptation measures
to cope with climate variability comparing
yield probabilities
Research Activities
• Weather data generation technique (using
SIMMETEO) given climate change scenarios,
and used to forecast corn yields (using CERES-
Maize model) to simulate expected yields for
the anticipated seasonal climate change
conditions.
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Research Outputs
Province of Isabela
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Province of Bukidnon
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Project Webpage
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CERES-Maize Model
• Crop genetic coefficients of IPB 911
• Sequences of historical and synthetic weather
data
• Planting dates during
- Normal/ Average year
- Dry year
- Wet year
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Coping Strategies in
Managing Climatic Risk
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1.00
Week 23 (1st week of June)
Week 25 (3rd week of June)
Week 27 (1st week of July)
0.75
Week 28 (2nd week of July)
Probability
0.50
0.25
0.00
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000
Yield (kg/ha)
1.00
50 cm
0.75 75 cm
Probability
100 cm
0.50
0.25
0.00
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000
Yield (kg/ha)
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Change in Yields
↑Temp
Scenario [CO2 ]
(°C)
1 330 0
2 330 0.5
3 330 1.0
4 330 1.5
5 330 2.0
6 660 0
7 660 0.5
8 660 1.0
9 660 1.5
10 660 2.0
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Conclusions
• Climate variability significantly affects crop
yields.
Conclusions
• Temperature increase reduces corn
yields; yield variability tends to
increase with warming.
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Recommendations
• Sharing of research data including
weather data should be addressed.
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