Outline

Richardson’s Arms Race Model

Richardson’s Arms Race Model

MA 2071 A ’05
Bill Farr

September 30, 2005

MA 2071 A ’05 Bill Farr Richardson’s Arms Race Model

 Outline
Richardson’s Arms Race Model

1 Richardson’s Arms Race Model

Introduction
A Simple Model
Richardson’s Model

MA 2071 A ’05 Bill Farr Richardson’s Arms Race Model

 Introduction
Outline
A Simple Model
Richardson’s Arms Race Model
Richardson’s Model

Introduction

Lewis Richardson (1881-1953) was a meteorologist in Britain. A

man of wide interests and abilities, he made contributions to
science in the areas of meteorology, fluid dynamics, fractals and
chaos theory. During World War I, he served for France in their
medical corps and saw first hand the horrors of warfare. After the
war,being concerned that the arms buildups going on in Europe
would lead to another global conflict, he began to think
analytically about modeling the process. The data he gathered and
the mathematical model he developed are the subject of this
presentation.

MA 2071 A ’05 Bill Farr Richardson’s Arms Race Model

 Introduction
Outline
A Simple Model
Richardson’s Arms Race Model
Richardson’s Model

A Simple Example

We start by considering a system of only three nations, denoted A,

B, and C.
A is quite aggressive and war-prone.
B is neutral and rather passive.
C is a reluctant foe of nation A.
Suppose we assign variables x, y, and z to them respectively, which
indicate the amount of arms that each nation has. A convenient
unit of measurement is the money value of the arms that each
nation possesses.

MA 2071 A ’05 Bill Farr Richardson’s Arms Race Model

 Introduction
Outline
A Simple Model
Richardson’s Arms Race Model
Richardson’s Model

Richardson’s Four Principles

In Richardson’s model, the amount of arms possessed by a nation

at time t = k + 1 depends on the four principles below.
1 The amount of arms they already had at time t = k.
2 The amount of arms they might build in response to the other
nations arms levels.
3 The amount of arms they might have gotten rid of due to
their internal tendencies. (As we have seen in the US,
maintaining armed forces can be expensive and sometimes is
the subject of cutbacks in peacetimes due to other priorities or
budget deficits.)
4 If they are particularly warlike or hold grievances against other
nations, the amount of arms they would build anyway, even if
no other nations presented a threat.

MA 2071 A ’05 Bill Farr Richardson’s Arms Race Model

 Introduction
Outline
A Simple Model
Richardson’s Arms Race Model
Richardson’s Model

A Linear Model

These four principles allow us to generate the following system of

three equations for our three hypothetical nations,

xk+1 = f1 xk + a12 yk + a13 zk + g1

yk+1 = f2 yk + a21 xk + a23 zk + g2

zk+1 = f3 zk + a31 xk + a32 yk + g3
where the fi are the “fatigue” coefficients described in item 3
above, the gi are the “grievances” described in item 4 above, and
the aij represent the response of nation i to the arms level of
nation j.

MA 2071 A ’05 Bill Farr Richardson’s Arms Race Model

 Introduction
Outline
A Simple Model
Richardson’s Arms Race Model
Richardson’s Model

Setting Coefficient Values

For the three nations we described above, we might set the
following values.
Set g2 = 0, since nation B is neutral.
Set a32 = 0 (since B and C are not enemies), give values for
a12 and a13 that are greater than one, since nation A
overreacts to the arms of nations B and C, and give g1 a
positive value.
We might also set the values f1 = 1, f2 = 0, and f3 = 1/2 to
express that nation A’s arms budget is never cut, nation B
always disarms unilaterally, and that nation C’s arms budget is
cut every year.
Setting a31 to 1 would indicate that nation C always builds
arms if nation A does. On the other hand, setting a31 = 1.2
indicates that nation C always builds 20% more arms than
nation A has.
MA 2071 A ’05 Bill Farr Richardson’s Arms Race Model
 Introduction
Outline
A Simple Model
Richardson’s Arms Race Model
Richardson’s Model

Matrix Form
In matrix form, we could write this model as

xk+1 = Axk + g

where the entries in the matrix A for our example would be

 
f1 a12 a13
A =  a21 f2 a23 
a31 a32 f3

and the vector g would be given by

 
g1
g =  g2 
g3

MA 2071 A ’05 Bill Farr Richardson’s Arms Race Model

 Introduction
Outline
A Simple Model
Richardson’s Arms Race Model
Richardson’s Model

Steady States
One important question in such a model is whether there can ever
be a steady state, that is, values for the arms levels that don’t
change. This can only happen if xk+1 = xk . To determine if this
can happen, we denote the steady state vector by xs and see if we
can solve for it in the equation
xs = Axs + g
which we can writen in a more familiar form as
(In − A)xs = g
This is a nonhomogeneous system, so there are three possibilities.
1 There might be no solution.

2 There might be a unique solution, if (I − A) is invertible.

n
3 The solution might exist, but have some negative

components, which would not make any physical sense.

MA 2071 A ’05 Bill Farr Richardson’s Arms Race Model
 Introduction
Outline
A Simple Model
Richardson’s Arms Race Model
Richardson’s Model

Simulation

Another approach to investigating such a model is by computing

values of xk for k = 1, 2, 3, . . .. Doing so produces the following
sequence of equations.

x1 = Ax0 + g

x2 = Ax1 + g = A2 x0 + Ag + g
x3 = Ax2 + g = A3 x0 + A2 g + Ag + g
or, in general,

xk = Ak x0 + Ak−1 g + . . . + Ag + g

MA 2071 A ’05 Bill Farr Richardson’s Arms Race Model

 Introduction
Outline
A Simple Model
Richardson’s Arms Race Model
Richardson’s Model

Possible Results of Simulation

One can imagine results like the following coming out of such
simulation.
1 The magnitude of xk might tend to infinity, indicating an
unstable arms race.
2 The vector xk might go to the steady state, indicating a
stable situation.
3 The vector xk might go to zero, indicating complete
disarmament.

MA 2071 A ’05 Bill Farr Richardson’s Arms Race Model

 Introduction
Outline
A Simple Model
Richardson’s Arms Race Model
Richardson’s Model

Richardson’s Model of the World in 1935

After World War I, Richardson collected data on ten nations and

came up with the following matrix A

0.5 0 0 0.1 0 0 0 0.05 0 0

 

 0 0.05 0 0 0 0 0.2 0 0 0.01 


 0 0 0 0.1 0.2 0 0.2 0 0 0  

 0.2 0 0.2 5 0.1 0 0 0.05 0 0.04 


 0 0 0 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.1 0 0 0  

 0 0 0.1 0 0.2 0.75 0 0 0 0.1 

 0 0.2 0 0 0 0 0.5 0 0.2 0.2  

 0.05 0 0 0.05 0 0 0 0.5 0 0.05 

 0 0 0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0 0.65 0.1 
0 0.1 0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.05 0 0.5

MA 2071 A ’05 Bill Farr Richardson’s Arms Race Model

 Introduction
Outline
A Simple Model
Richardson’s Arms Race Model
Richardson’s Model

Richardson’s Model, cont.

and values of g given by

1/20
 

 1/20 


 1/20 


 3/20 

 1/20 
g= 

 1/10 


 3/20 


 1/20 

 1/20 
1/10

where the nations, in order, are Czechoslovakia, China, France,

Germany, England, Italy, Japan, Poland, the USA, and the USSR.
MA 2071 A ’05 Bill Farr Richardson’s Arms Race Model
 Introduction
Outline
A Simple Model
Richardson’s Arms Race Model
Richardson’s Model

Exploring Richardson’s Model

To do numerical computations, use the Maple worksheet. To test
your understanding of the modeling process, here are some
questions to think about.
1 In Richardson’s model, explain why the fatigue coefficients f
i
should be in the range 0 < fi < 1. How would you explain
fi = 0 or fi = 1?
2 Suppose that the coefficient matrix for a group of four nations

is given by the following.

 
1/5 11/20 13/100 0
 1/2 2/5 0 0 
A=  2/5

0 1 0 
0 0 0 1/4
What can you say about the relationships between the four
nations?
MA 2071 A ’05 Bill Farr Richardson’s Arms Race Model