Shiller, R., U.S.

Stock Price Data, Annual, with consumption, both short and long rates, and p
An Update of Data shown in Chapter 26 of Market Volatility, R. Shiller, MIT Press, 1989, and Irrational Exuberance, Princeton 2005.
P D E R RLONG CPI RealR C
S&P Dividends Earnings One-Year Long Consumer Real Real Per
Composite Accruing Accruing Interest overnment Price One-Year Capita
Stock to to Rate Bond Index Interest Consumption
Price Index Index Yield Rate (See
Index 10yrpost53 Consumption
1871 4.44 0.26 0.4 6.35 5.32 12.464061 1.0475042 Tab) 1871
1872 4.86 0.3 0.43 7.81 5.36 12.654392 1.0543202 in 2005 1872
1873 5.11 0.33 0.46 8.35 5.58 12.939807 1.1335111 dollars 1873
1874 4.66 0.33 0.46 6.86 5.47 12.368896 1.1480763 1874
1875 4.54 0.3 0.36 4.96 5.07 11.512651 1.1140548 1875
1876 4.46 0.3 0.28 5.33 4.59 10.846575 1.044139 1876
1877 3.55 0.19 0.3 5.03 4.45 10.94174 1.2452051 1877
1878 3.25 0.18 0.31 4.9 4.34 9.2290893 1.1695687 1878
1879 3.58 0.2 0.38 4.25 4.22 8.2776793 0.8637833 1879
1880 5.11 0.26 0.49 5.1 4.02 9.9903306 1.1147011 1880
1881 6.19 0.32 0.44 4.79 3.7 9.4194198 0.9695528 1881
1882 5.92 0.32 0.43 5.26 3.62 10.18058 1.072645 1882
1883 5.81 0.33 0.4 5.35 3.63 9.9903306 1.1403956 1883
1884 5.18 0.31 0.31 5.65 3.62 9.2290893 1.1779307 1884
1885 4.24 0.24 0.27 4.22 3.52 8.2776793 1.0794228 1885
1886 5.2 0.22 0.33 4.26 3.37 7.9922321 1.0426 1886
1887 5.58 0.25 0.36 6.11 3.52 7.9922321 1.0128646 1887
1888 5.31 0.23 0.26 5.02 3.67 8.3728446 1.1002135 1888
1889 5.24 0.22 0.3 4.68 3.45 7.9922321 1.0991397 2731.5701 1889
1890 5.38 0.22 0.29 5.41 3.42 7.6116519 1.0283904 2674.7398 1890
1891 4.84 0.22 0.34 5.97 3.62 7.801942 1.1285119 2802.8275 1891
1892 5.51 0.24 0.37 3.93 3.6 7.3262127 0.9641693 2877.0105 1892
1893 5.61 0.25 0.26 8.52 3.75 7.8970911 1.2509954 2834.8462 1893
1894 4.32 0.21 0.16 3.32 3.7 6.8504835 1.0781208 2698.7075 1894
1895 4.25 0.19 0.25 3.09 3.46 6.5650524 1.0161736 2979.4573 1895
1896 4.27 0.18 0.21 5.76 3.6 6.6601934 1.0887057 2916.2753 1896
1897 4.22 0.18 0.31 3.44 3.4 6.4699033 1.0048459 3089.2463 1897
1898 4.88 0.2 0.35 3.55 3.35 6.6601934 1.020915 3085.2755 1898
1899 6.08 0.21 0.48 3.36 3.1 6.7553425 0.8841638 3389.8131 1899
1900 6.1 0.3 0.48 4.64 3.15 7.8970911 1.072238 3362.0541 1900
1901 7.07 0.32 0.5 4.3 3.1 7.7067929 1.0178666 3702.7858 1901
1902 8.12 0.33 0.63 4.72 3.18 7.8970911 0.9551381 3659.7121 1902
1903 8.46 0.35 0.53 5.5 3.3 8.6582595 1.1035054 3808.0779 1903
1904 6.68 0.31 0.49 4.34 3.4 8.2776793 1.0199579 3785.69 1904
1905 8.43 0.33 0.67 4.17 3.48 8.4679289 1.0417 3923.5705 1905
1906 9.87 0.4 0.76 5.47 3.43 8.4679289 1.0093367 4273.8445 1906
1907 9.56 0.44 0.66 6.23 3.67 8.8485091 1.0856421 4276.7051 1907
1908 6.85 0.4 0.58 5.32 3.87 8.6582595 1.0195898 3929.99 1908
1909 9.06 0.44 0.76 3.65 3.76 8.9436744 0.9368331 4274.4423 1909
1910 10.08 0.47 0.73 5.26 3.91 9.8951653 1.1285676 4263.3595 1910
1911 9.27 0.47 0.59 4 3.98 9.2290893 1.0508263 4399.9283 1911
1912 9.12 0.48 0.7 4.35 4.01 9.134005 0.9725851 4444.7552 1912
1913 9.3 0.48 0.63 5.65 4.45 9.8 1.03537 4501.988 1913
1914 8.37 0.42 0.52 4.64 4.16 10 1.0360396 4361.7544 1914
1915 7.48 0.43 0.88 3.65 4.24 10.1 1.006601 4224.7438 1915
1916 9.33 0.56 1.53 3.64 4.05 10.4 0.9212444 4541.7089 1916
1917 9.57 0.69 1.28 4.25 4.23 11.7 0.8712321 4387.478 1917
1918 7.21 0.57 0.99 5.98 4.57 14 0.8992242 4369.9593 1918
1919 7.85 0.53 0.93 5.56 4.5 16.5 0.902456 4505.8267 1919
1920 8.83 0.51 0.8 7.3 4.97 19.3 1.0899421 4637.2133 1920
1921 7.11 0.46 0.29 7.44 5.09 19 1.2079053 4842.814 1921
1922 7.3 0.51 0.69 4.58 4.3 16.9 1.052025 4952.3606 1922
1923 8.9 0.53 0.98 4.96 4.36 16.8 1.0192647 5310.2848 1923
1924 8.83 0.55 0.93 4.34 4.06 17.3 1.0434 5595.7135 1924
1925 10.58 0.6 1.25 3.87 3.86 17.3 1.0038832 5351.5956 1925
1926 12.65 0.69 1.24 4.28 3.68 17.9 1.0666354 5712.1106 1926
1927 13.4 0.77 1.11 4.26 3.34 17.5 1.0546532 5760.1968 1927
1928 17.53 0.85 1.38 4.64 3.33 17.3 1.0586386 5818.5356 1928
1929 24.86 0.97 1.61 6.01 3.6 17.1 1.0601 6071.471 1929
1930 21.71 0.98 0.97 4.15 3.29 17.1 1.1201038 5686.1786 1930
1931 15.98 0.82 0.61 2.43 3.34 15.9 1.138907 5469.0725 1931
1932 8.3 0.5 0.41 3.36 3.68 14.3 1.1457736 4951.9006 1932
1933 7.09 0.44 0.44 1.46 3.31 12.9 0.9915409 4815.9262 1933
1934 10.54 0.45 0.49 1.01 3.12 13.2 0.9803912 5123.657 1934
1935 9.26 0.47 0.76 0.75 2.79 13.6 0.9928986 5400.9604 1935
1936 13.76 0.72 1.02 0.75 2.65 13.8 0.9860638 5909.3907 1936
1937 17.59 0.8 1.13 0.88 2.68 14.1 1.0016958 6090.5633 1937
1938 11.31 0.51 0.64 0.88 2.56 14.2 1.0232114 5945.8631 1938
1939 12.5 0.62 0.9 0.56 2.36 14 1.0128345 6225.8148 1939
1940 12.3 0.67 1.05 0.56 2.21 13.9 0.9913362 6495.5605 1940
1941 10.55 0.71 1.16 0.53 1.95 14.1 0.902849 6892.752 1941
1942 8.93 0.59 1.03 0.63 2.46 15.7 0.9348467 6662.803 1942
1943 10.09 0.61 0.94 0.69 2.47 16.9 0.9779661 6759.2795 1943
1944 11.85 0.64 0.93 0.72 2.48 17.4 0.9845663 6872.801 1944
1945 13.49 0.66 0.96 0.75 2.37 17.8 0.9853571 7217.907 1945
1946 18.02 0.71 1.06 0.76 2.19 18.2 0.8529451 8015.2403 1946
1947 15.21 0.84 1.61 1.01 2.25 21.5 0.9163354 8007.9423 1947
1948 14.83 0.93 2.29 1.35 2.44 23.7 1.0008313 8045.457 1948
1949 15.36 1.14 2.32 1.58 2.31 24 1.0374128 8125.3918 1949
1950 16.88 1.47 2.84 1.32 2.32 23.5 0.9374094 8502.6929 1950
1951 21.21 1.41 2.44 2.12 2.57 25.4 0.9788106 8492.6582 1951
1952 24.19 1.41 2.4 2.39 2.68 26.5 1.0200508 8612.5676 1952
1953 26.18 1.45 2.51 2.58 2.83 26.6 1.0143599 8874.2394 1953
1954 25.46 1.54 2.77 1.8 2.48 26.9 1.0256255 8897.1737 1954
1955 35.6 1.64 3.62 1.81 2.61 26.7 1.0143011 9378.7916 1955
1956 44.15 1.74 3.41 3.21 2.9 26.8 1.0021841 9480.3394 1956
1957 45.43 1.79 3.37 3.86 3.46 27.6 1.0022853 9541.5915 1957
1958 41.12 1.75 2.89 2.54 3.09 28.6 1.0112566 9458.9751 1958
1959 55.62 1.83 3.39 3.74 4.02 29 1.0267782 9819.1113 1959
1960 58.03 1.95 3.27 4.28 4.72 29.3 1.0253034 9886.8023 1960
1961 59.72 2.02 3.19 2.91 3.84 29.8 1.0222393 9927.0126 1961
1962 69.07 2.13 3.67 3.39 4.08 30 1.0202961 10259.6 1962
1963 65.06 2.28 4.02 3.5 3.83 30.4 1.0182524 10529.756 1963
1964 76.45 2.5 4.55 4.09 4.17 30.9 1.0308913 11007.92 1964
1965 86.12 2.72 5.19 4.46 4.19 31.2 1.0248906 11557.94 1965
1966 93.32 2.87 5.55 5.44 4.61 31.8 1.0191465 12074.851 1966
1967 84.45 2.92 5.33 5.55 4.58 32.9 1.0183563 12299.897 1967
1968 95.04 3.07 5.76 6.17 5.53 34.1 1.0169654 12877.155 1968
1969 102.04 3.16 5.78 8.05 6.04 35.6 1.0176138 13224.512 1969
1970 90.31 3.14 5.13 9.11 7.79 37.8 1.0362709 13375.359 1970
1971 93.49 3.07 5.7 5.66 6.24 39.8 1.0231796 13711.987 1971
1972 103.3 3.15 6.42 4.62 5.95 41.1 1.009362 14396.618 1972
1973 118.42 3.38 8.16 7.93 6.46 42.6 0.9866562 14959.175 1973
1974 96.11 3.6 8.89 11.03 6.99 46.6 0.9930898 14709.721 1974
1975 72.56 3.68 7.96 7.24 7.5 52.1 1.0048928 14902.648 1975
1976 96.86 4.05 9.91 5.7 7.74 55.6 1.0046017 15572.324 1976
1977 103.81 4.67 10.89 5.28 7.21 58.5 0.9854208 16070 1977
1978 90.25 5.07 12.33 7.78 7.96 62.5 0.9862738 16599.457 1978
1979 99.71 5.65 14.86 10.88 9.1 68.3 0.9734067 16816.067 1979
1980 110.87 6.16 14.82 11.37 10.8 77.8 0.9959294 16576.575 1980
1981 132.97 6.63 15.36 17.63 12.57 87 1.0852397 16646.173 1981
1982 117.28 6.87 12.64 14.6 14.59 94.3 1.1049877 16719.585 1982
1983 144.27 7.09 14.03 9.37 10.46 97.8 1.0496944 17515.637 1983
1984 166.39 7.53 16.64 11.11 11.67 101.9 1.0731857 18284.404 1984
1985 171.61 7.9 14.61 8.35 11.38 105.5 1.0429676 19063.946 1985
1986 208.19 8.28 14.48 7.31 9.19 109.6 1.0576597 19657.785 1986
1987 264.51 8.81 17.5 6.25 7.08 111.2 1.0211755 20132.171 1987
1988 250.48 9.73 23.76 7.63 8.67 115.7 1.0283064 20758.541 1988
1989 285.41 11.05 22.87 9.29 9.09 121.1 1.0388555 21142.763 1989
1990 339.97 12.1 21.34 8.43 8.21 127.4 1.0262988 21332.497 1990
1991 325.5 12.2 15.91 6.92 8.09 134.6 1.0421022 21086.691 1991
1992 416.08 12.38 19.09 3.91 7.03 138.1 1.0063093 21489.452 1992
1993 435.23 12.58 21.88 3.44 6.6 142.6 1.0089291 21921.197 1993
1994 472.99 13.18 30.6 4.35 5.75 146.2 1.0150346 22467.696 1994
1995 465.25 13.79 33.96 6.45 7.78 150.3 1.0362328 22802.977 1995
1996 614.42 14.9 38.73 5.68 5.65 154.4 1.0255809 23325.448 1996
1997 766.22 15.5 39.72 5.78 6.58 159.1 1.0414355 23898.915 1997
1998 963.36 16.2 37.7 5.68 5.54 161.6 1.0394332 24861.128 1998
1999 1248.77 16.69 48.17 5.31 4.72 164.3 1.0250257 25922.571 1999
2000 1425.59 16.27 50 6.61 6.66 168.8 1.0277423 26939.624 2000
2001 1330.93 15.74 24.69 4.63 5.16 175.1 1.0344841 27388.939 2001
2002 1140.21 16.07 27.59 1.85 5.04 177.1 0.9927152 27848.501 2002
2003 895.84 17.39 48.74 1.18 4.05 181.7 0.9926785 28368.687 2003
2004 1,080.6 19.44 58.55 1.49 4.15 185.2 0.9856292 29087.296 2004
2005 1,199.2 22.22 69.93 3.41 4.22 190.7 0.9944673 29790.296 2005
2006 1262.07 24.88 81.51 5.32 4.42 198.3 1.0317839 30364.433 2006
2007 1416.42 27.73 66.18 5.34 4.76 202.416 1.0096838 30867.61 2007
2008 1479.22 28.39 26.16 3.42 3.74 211.18 1.0343812 30509.081 2008
2009 877.56 22.41 50.97 1.53 2.52 211.143 0.9893233 29933.855 2009
2010 1110.38 3.73 216.687 2010
Notes: The Federal Reserve Board discontinued its 6-month commercial paper rate series August 1997.
After that, the 6-month Certificate of Deposit rate, secondary market, is used,
The series R is the result of converting the January and July rates into an annual yield. RLONG is the 10-year Treasury after
Before 1953, it is government bond yields from Sidney Homer A History of Interest Rates.
See Shiller, Irrational Exuberance 2nd Edition, 2005 for description of data
nd long rates, and present value calculations.
berance, Princeton 2005.
RealP P* P*r P*C RealD Return ln(1+ret) RealE P/E E10
RealP Present Present Present RealD on RealE Price Ten-Year
Stock Value Value Value S&P S&P Earnings Earnings Average
Price of Real of Real of Real Dividend Composite Ratio of
Dividends Dividends Dividends One-Year Real
Const r Market r Cons disc. Earnings Earnings
72.105475 94.2852 55.275103 4.1588849 0.1358089 0.1273451 6.3982845
77.739156 96.241482 55.539265 4.6928675 0.0886154 0.0849066 6.7264434 12.15
79.935177 97.760286 55.592665 5.4004238 0.0215897 0.0213599 7.5278634 11.883721
76.26053 98.626578 58.852215 5.8020763 0.1227903 0.1158169 8.0877428 10.130435
79.822505 99.122743 62.975891 5.598523 0.1128428 0.1069178 6.7182276 9.8695652
83.231376 99.869938 66.160683 5.5498303 -0.144279 -0.155811 5.1798416 12.388889
65.672992 100.71983 65.651494 4.1671544 0.1488349 0.1387483 6.5797175 12.678571
71.280272 103.10388 78.960042 4.4015815 0.2898961 0.2545617 7.5805015 10.833333
87.542565 105.39935 90.110887 4.0522383 0.228967 0.206174 7.6992527 11.548387
103.53469 108.22362 77.694463 5.5871976 0.3387347 0.2917249 10.529719 13.447368 7.3027594
133.01828 109.60042 83.192033 6.3624194 -0.067292 -0.069663 8.7483267 12.632653 7.5377636
117.70476 110.2428 77.488644 6.4835812 0.0551919 0.0537226 8.7123123 13.454545 7.7363505
117.71752 110.7994 78.934201 7.2376892 0.0265887 0.0262414 8.7729566 13.511628 7.8608598
113.60979 110.58848 84.560347 7.5805015 -0.020664 -0.02088 7.5805015 12.95 7.8101357
103.6817 109.99718 93.681065 6.078382 0.3288426 0.2843084 6.8381798 13.677419 7.8221309
131.69828 110.9698 97.979027 5.5718502 0.1153846 0.1091993 8.3577753 19.259259 8.1399242
141.32238 112.54931 99.949913 6.0438241 -0.048879 -0.050114 8.7031067 16.909091 8.3522632
128.37082 113.732 98.778835 5.8251161 0.0791896 0.0762104 6.5849139 14.75 8.2527044
132.71134 115.22848 105.89645 95.652285 5.850441 0.1221371 0.115235 7.977874 20.153846 8.2805665
143.06987 116.79946 113.86884 82.086648 5.7077481 -0.082419 -0.086014 7.5238498 17.933333 7.9799797
125.57046 118.6294 115.45281 93.268694 6.0783821 0.2607601 0.2317148 9.3938632 16.689655 8.0445333
152.23584 120.18772 127.69868 97.463529 6.151612 -0.015044 -0.015159 9.4837351 16.205882 8.1216756
143.79393 121.77358 121.93533 85.722755 7.3869239 -0.060927 -0.062862 7.6824008 15.162162 8.01262
127.64604 122.14792 147.76978 63.017738 6.4747937 0.0772937 0.0744521 4.9331762 16.615385 7.7478875
131.03749 123.52167 157.8471 87.149426 5.7744629 0.0344209 0.0338417 7.5979776 26.5625 7.8238673
129.77346 125.73648 160.46683 74.214471 5.6314412 0.060752 0.0589781 6.5700147 17.08 7.6450912
132.02601 128.25429 174.61262 87.819717 5.4705438 0.1647937 0.152544 9.4214922 20.095238 7.7169297
148.31252 131.11476 176.56249 81.898517 5.9927679 0.2687594 0.2380396 10.487344 15.741935 8.1071728
182.18015 133.61165 180.79367 113.35196 5.3826605 -0.112219 -0.11903 12.303224 17.371429 8.5397077
156.35347 136.92947 161.93748 104.30174 7.8793865 0.2380298 0.2135213 12.607018 12.708333 9.0480246
185.69088 137.80626 171.19905 145.57775 8.2021493 0.1650098 0.1527295 12.815858 14.729167 9.3902241
208.12954 138.39789 172.27006 130.71898 7.7148623 -0.012654 -0.012735 14.728374 16.24 9.9146879
197.78102 139.55001 163.59471 145.52589 8.5586307 -0.130826 -0.140211 12.960212 13.428571 10.442469
163.34758 139.87929 177.13343 133.5751 7.4101898 0.2789877 0.2460689 11.712881 12.603774 11.12044
201.50935 141.45727 179.734 146.71412 7.8882665 0.2099644 0.1905909 16.015571 17.204082 11.962199
235.93088 142.6318 185.71799 198.65973 9.1502873 -0.034284 -0.034886 17.385546 14.731343 13.043752
218.69187 142.53838 185.10681 190.04184 10.286483 -0.220692 -0.249349 15.429725 12.578947 13.644575
160.14184 141.22533 196.61467 125.22553 9.0529235 0.3369501 0.2903909 13.126739 10.378788 13.908515
205.04872 141.14044 198.55564 166.1918 9.0006622 0.0494952 0.0483093 15.546598 15.62069 14.232852
206.19699 141.10561 184.97876 155.47421 10.308224 0.0360069 0.0353738 16.010646 13.263158 14.573215
203.31327 139.67212 203.94403 166.06511 10.415532 0.0452892 0.0442936 13.074817 12.69863 14.599111
202.10564 138.02679 210.91729 162.52126 9.9142531 -0.000508 -0.000508 14.458286 15.457627 14.572102
192.08865 136.80511 203.3367 161.14089 9.715968 -0.067419 -0.0698 12.752208 13.285714 14.551302
169.42219 135.71227 208.02515 132.26602 8.417299 -0.065498 -0.067741 10.421418 13.285714 14.422155
149.90809 135.93208 214.59134 107.99663 8.3691231 0.267174 0.2367892 17.127508 14.384615 14.533349
181.59051 136.21824 215.6313 135.87093 9.6882872 -0.034893 -0.035517 26.469785 10.602273 15.441773
165.56591 135.11514 197.76079 108.64562 9.9762171 -0.310121 -0.371239 18.506606 6.254902 15.749461
104.24424 133.62973 170.93225 96.94452 6.9925527 -0.00912 -0.009162 12.14496 5.6328125 15.651283
96.300945 135.22965 153.8163 102.58249 5.5585741 0.0193723 0.019187 9.7537244 7.9292929 15.071996
92.607942 138.46939 139.58182 109.52242 5.4332716 -0.123407 -0.131713 8.5227789 9.4946237 14.323209
75.746198 142.06277 151.4493 124.84316 5.5095479 0.2270408 0.2046054 3.4734107 8.8875 13.363068
87.43413 145.8185 181.97671 131.01874 6.1447714 0.296714 0.2598333 8.3135143 25.172414 12.748591
107.23229 149.15074 191.84144 167.05833 6.2011838 0.0212899 0.0210664 11.46634 12.898551 12.620004
103.31406 152.64884 196.46117 199.77583 6.4351908 0.2604757 0.2314892 10.881323 9.0102041 12.665995
123.78967 156.1344 205.68888 160.69474 6.7848939 0.2103843 0.1909379 14.135196 11.376344 12.366764
143.04818 159.48303 207.4386 201.78658 7.9809737 0.1392931 0.1304079 14.342619 10.12 11.154047
154.99282 161.78163 220.53241 200.68668 9.0092671 0.3814598 0.3231407 12.987385 10.806452 10.602125
205.10708 163.13813 231.33825 199.93192 10.061614 0.4837822 0.3945944 16.335326 15.792793 11.021162
294.27262 163.46292 242.88731 226.96824 11.482077 -0.087691 -0.091777 19.057881 18.014493 11.951577
256.98546 162.29291 254.34328 163.12884 12.475955 -0.159834 -0.174156 12.348649 13.484472 12.334164
203.43445 159.98219 280.35537 127.12985 11.607071 -0.365431 -0.454809 8.6345287 16.474227 12.850276
117.48621 158.44253 316.56722 73.836712 7.8455814 0.0137013 0.0136083 6.4333767 13.606557 12.662262
111.25034 160.81511 365.77298 58.209159 6.7472 0.5134633 0.4144006 6.7472 17.292683 12.190348
161.62611 164.52159 369.99974 67.827617 6.6975882 -0.105843 -0.111874 7.2929294 23.954545 11.831509
137.82148 168.53253 370.35609 77.049623 6.8938783 0.5144458 0.4150496 11.147548 18.897959 11.532744
201.82929 172.606 375.06522 103.52857 10.336136 0.3023565 0.2641753 14.64286 18.105263 11.562768
252.51755 173.28005 373.87971 106.48441 11.403718 -0.316389 -0.380366 16.107752 17.245098 11.874805
161.22007 172.85981 377.2363 85.316174 7.3737257 0.1667425 0.1542156 9.2533029 10.00885 11.166603
180.72857 176.7145 392.8815 95.181204 9.0286273 0.041036 0.0402163 13.106072 19.53125 10.571422
179.11632 179.06353 403.75931 103.75159 9.6183489 -0.100744 -0.106187 15.073532 13.666667 10.84391
151.45311 180.94222 406.10754 121.93407 9.1538446 -0.179376 -0.197691 14.955577 10.047619 11.476015
115.13216 183.4444 373.88039 97.305151 7.0665941 0.1110478 0.1053035 12.336596 7.6982759 12.066337
120.85074 188.34523 357.22959 95.998016 7.0961931 0.1994008 0.1818221 10.935117 9.7961165 12.485129
137.85228 193.54698 356.08255 95.515228 7.2778787 0.1656094 0.1532441 10.575667 12.606383 12.813402
153.40404 198.90766 357.03343 108.91584 7.3403604 0.3542958 0.3032816 10.676888 14.505376 12.766336
200.41408 204.56534 358.21933 158.27939 6.6844353 -0.252138 -0.290537 9.9795795 18.770833 12.300008
143.19755 211.30734 313.55863 151.01928 7.174238 -0.065391 -0.067627 13.750623 14.349057 12.064296
126.65946 217.98375 292.70753 146.6949 7.84362 0.0847185 0.0813205 19.31386 9.2111801 13.070351
129.54624 224.39836 296.21752 144.76863 9.8193294 0.1981383 0.1807689 19.983197 6.7074236 13.758064
145.39498 229.13845 308.28983 163.77007 11.714627 0.2430962 0.2176052 22.63234 7.2758621 14.513945
169.02533 232.17626 289.58624 151.2837 10.770059 0.1568769 0.145724 18.637549 7.4683099 14.882142
184.77144 236.42885 283.78903 149.24031 10.72957 0.1362662 0.1277476 18.263098 9.9139344 15.474792
199.21996 241.01322 289.19066 157.49139 10.9109 0.0164205 0.0162871 18.887143 10.908333 16.269994
191.58035 245.71501 293.13568 148.21488 11.67493 0.4696859 0.3850487 20.999712 10.143426 17.312399
269.888 249.91994 299.65732 171.33349 12.386651 0.2814366 0.2479818 27.341266 12.851986 18.978837
333.4577 253.65018 302.5897 166.4886 12.761009 0.037435 0.0367513 25.008643 12.196133 20.481743
333.17967 257.23376 301.77226 158.07218 12.668694 -0.088495 -0.092659 23.851116 13.322581 21.491792
291.02608 261.15907 301.04653 139.99948 12.214759 0.3759409 0.3191378 20.171801 12.20178 21.577587
388.21993 265.83545 303.35469 150.35464 12.642365 0.0652121 0.063174 23.419462 19.245675 21.921213
400.89421 270.3725 309.84211 141.90141 13.245342 0.0448952 0.0439166 22.21142 17.117994 21.879121
405.6471 274.57351 315.67635 130.97867 13.629344 0.1824526 0.1675907 21.523568 18.262997 22.167723
466.0291 278.64951 320.55172 135.80416 14.182437 -0.040019 -0.040841 24.436405 21.652038 22.785054
433.19687 282.41145 324.54343 136.50071 14.93555 0.1905326 0.1744008 26.333732 17.72752 23.529713
500.79946 285.62442 327.34143 148.10011 16.219231 0.148043 0.1380587 29.519 19.017413 24.381641
558.72006 287.68462 332.87473 163.77398 17.31357 0.0941468 0.0899749 33.035819 18.927473 24.951097
594.00821 288.71602 335.73043 177.78332 17.657566 -0.09558 -0.100461 34.146164 17.980732 25.864849
519.57542 289.45005 336.57564 173.75471 17.332983 0.119156 0.1125749 31.63863 15.216216 26.6436
564.15298 290.58051 337.56122 191.40929 17.455537 0.0593561 0.0576613 32.750454 17.831144 27.901465
580.18339 291.65679 338.02855 195.45728 16.921549 -0.1373 -0.147688 30.951441 17.715278 28.654663
483.60288 293.37632 339.29411 187.60755 15.969504 0.0162133 0.0160832 26.090304 15.624567 29.042552
 475.47417 296.22917 347.66961 191.24976 15.119638 0.1017809 0.0969279 28.072292 18.224172 29.697424
508.74873 300.18311 353.2361 217.28307 14.96738 0.1354246 0.1270067 30.504946 18.122807 30.304278
562.67847 304.56792 354.63652 238.3206 14.681676 -0.23197 -0.263927 35.444518 18.445483 31.215357
417.47214 309.55534 348.6853 208.13554 13.986518 -0.291228 -0.344221 34.53893 11.778186 31.71735
281.90605 315.62348 345.44758 205.28503 13.397318 0.2983881 0.2611236 28.978981 8.1619798 31.311666
352.62615 322.73253 346.63318 231.34957 14.013415 0.0583636 0.0567239 34.289616 12.168342 31.326011
359.19325 329.66603 347.13087 248.35944 15.124524 -0.144156 -0.155668 35.268964 10.475277 31.689045
292.2887 335.88349 340.12251 267.61875 15.025609 0.062406 0.0605361 36.541571 8.2874197 32.068156
295.50365 342.62843 333.32146 266.83785 14.699877 0.0258949 0.0255653 38.661976 8.0867802 32.83921
288.45581 350.17886 322.58259 237.25853 14.331983 0.1221918 0.1152837 34.480519 7.460969 33.678231
309.37075 358.63444 319.02533 226.9363 14.231369 -0.140274 -0.151141 32.970411 8.9723347 34.168043
251.74283 367.77119 342.66909 216.73482 14.218793 0.2425913 0.2171989 26.160923 7.6354167 33.733641
298.59465 377.5413 375.75132 246.83526 14.083704 0.1540857 0.1433084 27.869445 11.413766 32.976134
330.5201 388.11859 393.75455 279.02361 14.447322 0.0398892 0.0391142 31.926088 11.859587 32.714849
329.25696 399.02526 421.86956 315.29062 14.590204 0.2120875 0.1923441 26.982644 10.313101 32.515216
384.49806 410.51938 440.67326 341.85944 15.071983 0.2914403 0.2557581 26.357767 14.249829 31.722031
481.48432 422.27893 466.75041 361.0006 15.413007 -0.057861 -0.059602 30.616076 18.267265 31.256742
438.21227 434.47221 478.50812 392.65524 16.263482 0.1257559 0.1184547 39.71432 14.313143 31.574017
477.05657 446.58464 493.36824 406.2797 17.55649 0.1690616 0.1562014 36.336373 12.012205 31.341457
540.15202 458.13816 512.86821 403.5044 18.196386 -0.06009 -0.061971 32.091809 14.865326 31.102586
489.49783 469.7923 526.98568 367.02933 17.88179 0.2824138 0.2487441 23.319613 15.253046 30.137506
609.85698 482.57312 550.40609 378.00259 17.573002 0.0418306 0.0409793 27.097626 26.152106 30.231176
617.79464 496.55087 556.98872 391.73522 17.417191 0.0881911 0.0845168 30.293174 22.798848 30.473549
654.86145 511.64341 565.44622 414.86732 17.750119 -0.016091 -0.016222 41.210443 21.617459 31.401984
626.57381 527.40448 577.30433 422.44102 18.078476 0.3144079 0.2733863 44.521032 15.204248 33.155823
805.49507 543.88432 601.31199 444.43022 18.956621 0.2337567 0.2100638 49.274492 18.092462 35.447496
974.82833 560.5446 619.97896 470.81802 19.414901 0.2577546 0.2293281 49.75225 19.78363 37.361113
1206.6799 577.84593 648.88576 531.93041 19.958242 0.291503 0.2558066 46.446033 24.253776 38.034284
1538.4725 595.74096 678.27206 608.80016 20.013762 0.1241707 0.1170456 57.762907 33.123873 40.176938
1709.4919 614.79091 700.42018 690.10102 18.808157 -0.088989 -0.0932 57.800114 29.594976 42.747768
1538.5581 636.42082 727.12143 718.49722 17.989993 -0.14128 -0.152313 28.219373 26.6186 43.237744
1303.2002 660.39201 761.25904 749.95755 17.902175 -0.220474 -0.249069 30.735594 46.181045 43.601541
997.97661 686.08346 766.95116 789.67925 19.006556 0.2025349 0.1844318 53.27082 32.469735 45.899306
1181.0952 712.33879 771.65708 853.77822 20.634332 0.0951869 0.090925 62.147125 22.171522 47.992974
1272.8856 738.63734 769.53858 918.72326 22.681208 0.0299019 0.0294635 71.381497 20.48181 50.679021
1288.2661 764.53452 771.87137 968.94086 24.88 0.1187906 0.1122483 81.51 18.047619 53.902571
1416.42 789.84087 799.88498 1009.9013 26.579201 0.019762 0.0195693 63.433521 17.377254 55.270698
1417.8322 815.04979 810.97254 937.21302 27.216579 -0.387442 -0.490111 25.07875 22.351466 53.13397
841.28853 841.28853 841.28853 841.28853 20.934078 0.257814 0.2293753 47.613117 33.545872 52.118991
1037.2504 21.784972 51.487755

G is the 10-year Treasury after 1953

 P/E10
Price
Earnings
Ratio
Ten-Year
Earnings

18.214797
15.615342
15.216157
14.452591
13.275275
16.836624
17.361634
15.369586
16.080952
17.277788
15.735687
18.924136
17.704959
15.930625
16.912674
16.586868
17.269383
19.21911
22.471477
18.308995
20.522808
22.164491
19.948285
15.64262
18.120629
19.723036
16.766024
11.736667
14.742675
14.487398
13.951161
13.843695
13.181945
11.643095
10.394292
12.494746
10.721949
6.6189084
6.1529106
6.1443716
5.2883539
6.5429681
8.4113047
8.1865314
9.773387
11.567147
13.895658
19.345846
26.70069
21.502221
16.493573
9.1426992
8.7859769
13.258531
11.648682
17.500543
21.838849
13.57665
16.184741
16.943446
13.966651
10.032416
10.015528
11.041318
11.972155
15.698637
11.642069
10.498704
9.9114582
10.567983
11.64572
12.415648
12.873838
11.775072
15.58929
17.569976
16.267154
13.541266
17.991814
18.287958
18.540374
21.022867
19.012326
21.283705
22.915605
23.806898
20.08809
21.174052
20.794011
16.876935
16.371639
17.131073
18.567625
13.373935
8.8880706
11.261814
11.466294
9.2236515
9.2148625
8.783884
9.1860748
7.3677858
8.8515392
10.02301
10.06445
11.825173
15.178231
14.019768
15.10915
17.234426
15.738172
20.235815
20.43568
21.489504
19.953319
24.294226
27.500626
32.297751
40.449623
42.549083
35.991542
30.140336
22.888563
25.73231
26.522333
25.420106
26.277411
25.65251
15.833346
19.901582
This page shows how consumption data in column I of Data were constructed
Per
Capita
NIPA NIPA Real
Table Table NBER Real Populatio Consumpt
2.3.6 2.4.3 Kendrick Consumption n ion
From
Personal Personal NIPA
Consumpt Real Consumpt Table
ion Personal ion Inferred from 7.1
Expenditu Consumpt Expenditu Columns Line
res ion Index res B,C,D 18
Billio
ns of
Chaine In
d 2005 Millions Billions 2005
Dollar of 1929 of 2005 Dollar
s 2000=100 Dollars Dollars Millions s
1889 18004 168.7427455 61.775 2731.57
1890 17995 168.6583929 63.056 2674.74
1891 19247 180.3927807 64.361 2802.827
1892 20157 188.9217686 65.666 2877.01
1893 20256 189.8496475 66.97 2834.846
1894 19659 184.2542565 68.275 2698.708
1895 22119 207.3106414 69.58 2979.457
1896 22056 206.720173 70.885 2916.275
1897 23794 223.0096027 72.189 3089.246
1898 24193 226.7492359 73.494 3085.275
1899 27053 253.5546265 74.799 3389.813
1900 27296 255.8321474 76.094 3362.054
1901 30651 287.2769325 77.584 3702.786
1902 30911 289.7137862 79.163 3659.712
1903 32761 307.0529375 80.632 3808.078
1904 33188 311.055001 82.166 3785.69
1905 35090 328.881523 83.822 3923.57
1906 38965 365.2000155 85.45 4273.845
1907 39702 372.1075585 87.008 4276.705
1908 37197 348.6294104 88.71 3929.99
1909 41269 386.7942882 90.49 4274.442
1910 42034 393.9642616 92.407 4263.36
1911 44064 412.9904654 93.863 4399.928
1912 45211 423.7407392 95.335 4444.755
1913 46701 437.7057853 97.225 4501.988
1914 46124 432.2978446 99.111 4361.754
1915 45322 424.7810883 100.546 4224.744
1916 49408 463.0771812 101.961 4541.709
1917 48342 453.0860811 103.268 4387.478
1918 48121 451.0147555 103.208 4369.959
1919 50245 470.9219756 104.514 4505.827
1920 52713 494.0533407 106.541 4637.213
1921 56082 525.629341 108.538 4842.814
1922 58149 545.0023278 110.049 4952.361
1923 63427 594.4704577 111.947 5310.285
1924 68127 638.5212744 114.109 5595.714
1925 66137 619.8699712 115.829 5351.596
1926 71548 670.5846455 117.397 5712.111
1927 73157 685.6650208 119.035 5760.197
1928 74813 701.1859043 120.509 5818.536
1929 9.814 78952 739.9787406 121.878 6071.471
1930 9.29 700.4689729 123.188 5686.179
1931 9.005 678.9798817 124.149 5469.072
1932 8.206 618.735026 124.949 4951.901
1933 8.028 605.313769 125.69 4815.926
1934 8.595 648.0657505 126.485 5123.657
1935 9.123 687.8771194 127.362 5400.96
1936 10.046 757.4716148 128.181 5909.391
1937 10.417 785.4451335 128.961 6090.563
1938 10.249 772.7778798 129.969 5945.863
1939 10.819 815.7560622 131.028 6225.815
1940 11.382 858.2064423 132.122 6495.56
1941 12.195 919.5069025 133.402 6892.752
1942 11.917 898.5456135 134.86 6662.803
1943 12.258 924.2571227 136.739 6759.28
1944 12.615 951.1750369 138.397 6872.801
1945 13.395 1009.987287 139.928 7217.907
1946 15.03 1133.26681 141.389 8015.24
1947 15.307 1154.152698 144.126 8007.942
1948 15.646 1179.713407 146.631 8045.457
1949 16.077 1212.210945 149.188 8125.392
1950 17.105 1289.722474 151.684 8502.693
1951 17.378 1310.306761 154.287 8492.658
1952 17.928 1351.776937 156.954 8612.568
1953 18.78 1416.01801 159.565 8874.239
1954 19.162 1444.820932 162.391 8897.174
1955 20.558 1550.079779 165.275 9378.792
1956 21.151 1594.792168 168.221 9480.339
1957 21.674 1634.226536 171.274 9541.591
1958 21.846 1647.195391 174.141 9458.975
1959 23.067 1739.259182 177.13 9819.111
1960 23.702 1787.138385 180.76 9886.802
1961 24.191 1824.009141 183.742 9927.013
1962 25.389 1914.338725 186.59 10259.6
1963 26.436 1993.28286 189.3 10529.76
1964 28.02 2112.716967 191.927 11007.92
1965 29.791 2246.250933 194.347 11557.94
1966 31.484 2373.903675 196.599 12074.85
1967 32.422 2444.629175 198.752 12299.9
1968 34.284 2585.024571 200.745 12877.16
1969 35.558 2681.084579 202.736 13224.51
1970 36.381 2743.139042 205.089 13375.36
1971 37.77 2847.870087 207.692 13711.99
1972 40.082 3022.195627 209.924 14396.62
1973 42.048 3170.432656 211.939 14959.18
1974 41.729 3146.379954 213.898 14709.72
1975 42.688 3218.68886 215.981 14902.65
1976 45.041 3396.105813 218.086 15572.32
1977 46.95 3540.045024 220.289 16070
1978 49.012 3695.520484 222.629 16599.46
1979 50.204 3785.397666 225.106 16816.07
1980 50.065 3774.917021 227.726 16576.57
1981 50.779 3828.75285 230.008 16646.17
1982 51.493 3882.588678 232.218 16719.59
1983 54.436 4104.49182 234.333 17515.64
1984 57.325 4322.323344 236.394 18284.4
1985 60.303 4546.865497 238.506 19063.95
1986 62.749 4731.29468 240.683 19657.79 6,079.00 6,291.20
1987 64.84 4888.956749 242.843 20132.17
1988 67.468 5087.10879 245.061 20758.54
1989 69.369 5230.444799 247.387 21142.76
1990 70.782 5336.985451 250.181 21332.5
1991 70.903 5346.10889 253.53 21086.69
1992 73.224 5521.113032 256.922 21489.45
1993 75.672 5705.693016 260.282 21921.2
1994 78.504 5919.226722 263.455 22467.7
1995 6,079.00 80.623 6079 266.588 22802.98
1996 6,291.20 83.382 6291.2 269.714 23325.45
1997 6,523.40 86.533 6523.4 272.958 23898.91
1998 6,865.50 90.896 6865.5 276.154 24861.13
1999 7,240.90 95.537 7240.9 279.328 25922.57
2000 7,608.10 100 7608.1 282.413 26939.62
2001 7,813.90 102.537 7813.9 285.294 27388.94
2002 8,021.90 105.698 8021.9 288.055 27848.5
2003 8,247.60 109.143 8247.6 290.729 28368.69
2004 8,532.70 8532.7 293.348 29087.3
2005 8,819.00 8819 296.036 29790.3
2006 9,073.50 9073.5 298.82 30364.43
2007 9,313.90 9313.9 301.737 30867.61
2008 9,290.90 9290.9 304.529 30509.08
2009 9,186.70 9186.7 306.9 29933.85
2009 value is 2nd quarter 2009 2009 Pop is 2nd Quarter
6,523.40 6,865.50 7,240.90 7,608.10 7,813.90 8,021.90 8,247.60 8,532.70 8,819.00 9,073.50 9,313.90
9,290.90
 Comparing Actual Real Stock Price with Three Alternative PDVs of Future Real Dividends

10000

PDV Dividends
Actual Real Stock Price (P)
Using Actual
Future Interest
1000
Rates
Price

PDV of Dividends
(P* A=0)

100
Consumption-Discounted
Dividends, (P*, A=4)

10
1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Year
100000

10000
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Average Real Interest Rate: 1.028826
Geometric Average Stock Return: 0.065648
exp(geo. Avg. return) 0.067851
Geometric Average Dividend Growth 0.012025