Professional Documents
Culture Documents
July 2010
This report was produced for review by the United States Agency for International
Development. It was prepared by Jason Wolfe of USAID/EGAT/PR/MD.
TRIP REPORT
DISCLAIMER
The author’s views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the
United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Context and Rationale........................................................................................................................................................ 6
USG Foreign Assistance Objectives........................................................................................................................... 6
GoG Priorities for Food Security................................................................................................................................ 6
USAID Strategies and Investments to Date.............................................................................................................. 7
Situation Assessment.......................................................................................................................................................... 7
Role of Poverty .............................................................................................................................................................. 8
Role of Household Cash Flow .................................................................................................................................. 10
Investment Options.......................................................................................................................................................... 11
Smoothing Income: Income Diversification ........................................................................................................... 11
Smoothing Consumption: Savings-Led Financial Services ................................................................................... 12
External Assistance: Remittances and Social Safety Nets ..................................................................................... 13
Feasibility Analysis............................................................................................................................................................ 14
Effects of Income Diversification............................................................................................................................. 14
Opportunities for Income Diversification............................................................................................................... 14
Effects of Savings-Led Financial Services ............................................................................................................... 16
Opportunities for Savings-Led Financial Services.................................................................................................. 17
Coherence with GoG and USAID Initiatives......................................................................................................... 18
Annex A. Terms of Reference.................................................................................................................................... 19
Annex B. Works Consulted ........................................................................................................................................ 20
Annex C. Individuals and Institutions Consulted ................................................................................................... 23
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1. Food Insecurity by Region in Ghana ........................................................................................................ 7
Table 2. Vulnerability to Food Insecurity by Region in Ghana ........................................................................... 7
Table 3. Child Nutrition by Region in Ghana......................................................................................................... 8
Table 4. Characteristics of Livelihood Groups in Ghana ..................................................................................... 9
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1. Wealth Quintile Map.................................................................................................................................... 9
Figure 2. Sources of Food by Wealth Quintile....................................................................................................... 10
Figure 3. Sources of Food by Livelihood Group................................................................................................... 10
Figure 4. Average Monthly Expenditures on Food and Non-Food Items in Ghana ...................................... 10
Figure 5. Food Expenditures by Wealth Group and Urban/Rural in Ghana................................................... 10
Figure 6. Monthly Cash Flow for Farming Households in Northern Ghana ................................................... 11
Figure 7. Impact of Income Diversification on Monthly Cash Flow for Households in Northern Ghana 14
Prompted by sharply rising food prices in 2008, the U.S. Government boldly launched the Global Hunger
and Food Security Initiative, now known as Feed the Future, to coordinate an inter-agency response to the
immediate crisis and lay the foundation for longer-term food security. Feed the Future embraces the
principles established by donors at the L’Aquila G8 Summit in 2009:
Adopt a comprehensive approach to food security that focuses on advancing agriculture-led growth,
reducing under-nutrition, and increasing the impact of humanitarian food assistance
Invest in country-led plans
Strengthen strategic coordination–globally, regionally, and locally
Leverage the benefits of multilateral institutions
Deliver on a sustained and accountable commitment
SITUATION ASSESSMENT
In aggregate, Ghana is considered to be generally food secure, with only 5 percent of the population deemed
food insecure and another 9 percent vulnerable to food insecurity. However, this nationwide perspective
masks important regional dynamics and disparities. Persistent food insecurity is concentrated in the poorest
areas of the country. As illustrated in Table 1 and Table 2, the rural northern regions have the highest rates of
food insecurity in the country – as much as seven times the national average.
A third (34 percent) of the population in Upper West region is food insecure followed by 15 percent of
Upper East region and 10 percent of Northern region. This equals about 453,000 people, more than the rest
of the rural areas combined. By contrast, the lowest prevalence of food insecurity occurs in Accra (2 percent)
and the rural areas in Greater Accra (1 percent) and Western region (1 percent).
Upper West Rural 175,000 34% Upper East Rural 163,000 20%
Upper East Rural 126,000 15% Northern Rural 275,000 17%
Northern Rural 152,000 10% Upper West Rural 69,000 13%
Ashanti Rural 162,000 7% Brong Ahafo Rural 152,000 11%
Eastern Rural 58,000 4% Ashanti Rural 218,000 10%
Urban (Other) 297,000 4% Eastern Rural 116,000 8%
Brong Ahafo Rural 47,000 3% Urban (Other) 572,000 8%
Volta Rural 44,000 3% Volta Rural 88,000 7%
Central Rural 39,000 3% Western Rural 93,000 6%
Urban (Accra) 69,000 2% Central Rural 56,000 5%
Western Rural 12,000 1% Urban (Accra) 158,000 4%
Greater Accra Rural 7,000 1% Greater Accra Rural 14,000 3%
Total 1,200,000 5% Total 2,007,000 9%
Source: CFSVA (2008) Source: CFSVA (2008)
Role of Poverty
Poor asset wealth was strongly correlated with chronic malnutrition and other nutritional status indicators,
particularly in the northern savannah zone. Asset wealth is a proxy for household purchasing power, and
stunting was attributed to a lack of food access leading to poor and borderline food consumption. The
CFSVA 2008 suggests that increasing household purchasing power would lead to better diets and longer-term
nutritional status for children.
1 Wasting is an anthropometric measure of “weight for height” reflecting acute malnutrition, which is the result of
reduced energy intake over a short period of time due to either food shortage or poor health.
2 Stunting is an anthropometric measure of “height for age” reflecting chronic malnutrition, which results from longer-
term macronutrient deficiencies.
3 Underweight is an anthropometric measure of “weight for age” and acts as a composite measure of both acute and
chronic malnutrition.
% IN
% OF MEAN MEDIAN
POOREST
LIVELIHOOD HOUSE- ANNUAL ANNUAL
WEALTH
HOLDS INCOME INCOME
QUINTILE
Unusually, acute malnutrition was not correlated with asset wealth. Wasting is seen as function of disease
(diarrhea and fever) in the northern regions, which could be improved through improved access to cleaner
water, health services, and better hygienic practices.
From a livelihoods perspective, Ghanaians engaged primarily in farming had a disproportionately higher
prevalence of vulnerability and food insecurity. This is attributed to low productivity that limits agricultural
incomes to levels that are unable to sustain farming households throughout the year. Indeed, annual per
capita incomes for this population fall below the national poverty threshold (of 540 cedis), as illustrated in
Table 4. Staple food farming is the largest livelihood source for Ghanaians (25 percent of households), and
40 percent of these households fall in the poorest wealth quintile. Figure 1 also shows that severe poverty is
concentrated in the northern savannah regions.
Such low purchasing power at the household level results in a large share of income devoted to food
purchases. Ghana has two nutrition-based poverty lines: a lower threshold of 420 cedis accounting for
essential foodstuff purchases and an upper threshold of 540 cedis accounting for both basic food and non-
food expenditures. Farmers’ mean annual incomes of 441 cedis fall just above the lower poverty line, yet this
indicates that farming households barely earn enough to purchase all the food they need to consume in a year
to meet basic nutritional requirements. Median incomes of 222 cedis, which may be more representative of
the majority of farming households, are roughly half the extreme poverty line and reflect the significant
vulnerability of this group.
Markets are a significant source of food for all households in Ghana, with 80 percent of all households
purchasing food during the period immediately following the main harvest. Although variations do occur, this
phenomenon is remarkably consistent across income segments (see Figure 2) and livelihood groups (see
Figure 3). Even among agricultural livelihoods (cash crops, food crops, and agropastoralists), only about 30
percent of households get their food from their own production –which is remarkably low, especially during
the harvest period. Nationwide, the average Ghanaian tends to spend a little more than half (52 percent) of
their monthly household budget on food purchases (see Figure 4). When disaggregated by wealth group, as in
Figure 5, it is clear that the urban poor spend a greater share of their monthly budgets on food – yet food still
constitutes more than half of monthly expenses for the rural poor. In this context, limited household
purchasing power is a clear barrier to food access and improved food security.
Figure 4. Average Monthly Expenditures on Food and Figure 5. Food Expenditures by Wealth Group
Non-Food Items in Ghana and Urban/Rural in Ghana
INVESTMENT OPTIONS
USAID’s development challenge is to improve cash flow among households vulnerable to food insecurity so
that they have cash (or cash-equivalent assets) available to purchase food, especially during periods of the year
when household food stocks are low or exhausted. Geographically, the evidence clearly points to Ghana’s
northern regions (Upper East, Upper West, and Northern) as the primary focus for investments in this area.
An obvious investment option is to increase household income from their main farming activities (e.g., grains
and other staple foods) through advancements in productivity, storage, and marketing efficiencies. However,
this option is not appealing for both developmental and operational reasons. Expanding income from staple
crop farming continues to concentrate households’ income sources in one period of the year (although this
period could be prolonged through crop storage) and does not effectively address their difficulties in
sustaining income and/or consumption levels throughout the year. Operationally, USAID is already investing
in this type of intervention strategy through the ADVANCE project and should not duplicate or undermine
these investments.
Three primary intervention strategies should be considered:
Smoothing household income streams throughout the year through income diversification
interventions
Smoothing household consumption throughout the year through asset accumulation and financial
services interventions
Preventing extremely negative coping strategies through access to external assistance such as social
safety nets and remittances
4 D. Collins et al. (2009) and S. Rutherford (1999) provide compelling examples and insights.
5 M. Adato (2007) and A. Fiszbein (2009) have the most extensive synthesis of evidence.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Source: Author’s calculations based on data from GLSS-5 (2008), TechnoServe (2010), and IDE (2010)
continue to let these donors play a leadership role, while seeking to leverage and coordinate their work as it
evolves.
FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS
Income diversification and savings-led financial services appear to offer the best investment options to
achieve USG food security objectives given USAID’s comparative advantages. Assessing the feasibility of
these two options involves examining:
The probable outcomes of both intervention strategies on household purchasing power
The opportunities for intervention
The risks associated with interventions
The relationship between these interventions and other investment strategies pursued by USAID and
the Government of Ghana
Figure 7 estimates baseline monthly cash flow for a typical household and then examines the effect of
selected off-season economic opportunities. The baseline model uses data from GLSS-5 and assumes that
household income comes primarily from typical field crop production (groundnut, maize, sorghum, and
millet) and that consumption levels remain fairly consistent throughout the year. This model presumes that
income equals consumption but shows that monthly expenses outstrip monthly revenues for three-quarters
of the year. By contrast, participation in three different off-season opportunities shows positive effects on
monthly cash flow. Cashew production results in positive cash flow for 9 months, shea butter processing for
6 months, and vegetable production for 8 months. While these models are highly idealized and rely on
interpolated annual data, the overall trends they indicate are compelling for USAID’s food security priorities
in Ghana.
Cowpeas
Shea
Poultry
Small Ruminants
Vegetables
Sesame
Fruit
Cashews
Honey
Timber
Gum Arabic
Essential Oils
= high | = medium | = low
Figure 8 starts with the same baseline of net monthly cash flow as used in Figure 7 and then examines the
effect of various informal financial services. While the actual effects of household finance are more obvious
at the level of daily or weekly cash flow, assumptions have been adjusted to demonstrate the concept on an
annual timeframe. The result, explained in greater detail below, is to redistribute cash availability more evenly
throughout the year and to reduce the effects of irregular income streams.
Access to savings assumes a constant monthly savings rate of 10 percent of household income, which pays a
conservative monthly interest rate of 10 percent. The household is assumed to drawdown an escalating
portion of the accumulated savings starting in January until full withdrawal of the balance in August. The
effect is to slightly reduce the windfall after the main harvest and raise net cash flow during the lean period –
raising positive cash flow from 4 months in the baseline to 6 months with savings. Storing value in a relatively
liquid asset (like poultry or small ruminants) has a similar effect, although cash flow still remains lumpy. This
scenario assumes that households purchase these kinds of assets after the harvest when cash is readily
available and then sells them incrementally during leaner times when cash is scarce.
Access to credit assumes a monthly lending rate of 10 percent of household consumption during the lean
period when income is low and unpredictable. Credit is charged an interest rate of 10 percent to match the
interest on savings, as is typical in informal financing arrangements. The household is assumed to repay half
the outstanding balance every other month and refinance the unpaid portion until harvest time when the full
balance is repaid. While the effect is less obvious than with savings, net cash flow does appear smoother and
Figure 8. Impact of Access to Finance on Monthly Cash Flow for Households in Northern Ghana
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
ROTATING SAVINGS AND Unregistered Works well in remote Amounts saved are generally
CREDIT ASSOCIATION Time-bound rural communities small
(ROSCA) Members deposit fixed Well-known in many Inflexible: can’t deposit or
Traditional susu in amount each period countries withdraw funds as needed, so
Ghana Each period, one Simple, easy to manage generally not available for
member receives all system emergencies
funds No written records No lending
Rotates until everyone Enable people to obtain Savings tied up until member’s
has received funds usefully large sums turn to collect
No external funding
ACCUMULATING SAVINGS Unregistered Same advantages as for Amounts saved are small
AND CREDIT ASSOCIATION Time-bound ROSCAs Loans generally not suitable for
(ASCA) Usually a fixed amt. More flexibility than agriculture or large
VSLA (CARE) deposited each period ROSCAs for people who investments, due to small loan
SILC (CRS) Funds lent to members want loans size and risk
Saving for Change with interest Members receive a Savings tied up for the cycle
(Oxfam) No external funding return on their
PLAN investment
Save the Children
SELF-HELP GROUP (SHG) Similar to ASCA but More flexible than ASCA Savings cannot be withdrawn
WORTH intends to be permanent Savings sometimes unless member leaves SHG
Vicoba (Village External funds: SHGs leverage external funding May be difficult to achieve bank
Community Bank) borrow from banks and (banks, MFIs), enabling linkage without support from
on-lend to members larger loans government
Sometimes federated
BACKGROUND
As a Feed the Future focus country, USAID/Ghana is realigning and ramping up its agriculture and food
security programming. While in the midst of operationalizing its annual implementation plan, the mission is
also participating in a new multi-year strategy development process with assistance from McKinsey & Co.
Although original plans called for a new tree crops value chain program to provide alternative and
supplementary income to chronically vulnerable households, it is not yet clear whether interest in this
programmatic option will continue in the multi-year strategy. Accordingly, the mission intends to cautiously
proceed with pre-design work for this program so that it can rapidly proceed with procurement if its new
strategy continues support for this focus. USAID/Ghana plans to engage Jason Wolfe from USAID/EGAT
for technical assistance to support the country team in undertaking necessary analytical and pre-design work
for this program.
OBJECTIVE
Support USAID/Ghana’s Food Security team to undertake analytical and pre-design work for a potential tree
crops project.
SCOPE OF WORK
1. Articulate Ghana’s Implementation Plan for Feed the Future (complemented by the multi-year FtF
planning currently underway) into programmatic objectives and intervention approaches for a potential
tree crops value chain program, with particular emphasis on chronically vulnerable populations
2. Summarize and synthesize the relevant studies, strategies, and other analytics completed in recent years
3. Integrate lessons learned from relevant projects undertaken by USAID in the region
4. Consult with key informants and other stakeholders to vet and/or update prior analytics and lessons
learned
5. Recommend intervention strategies and other elements of a potential tree crops value chain program
based on USAID/Ghana’s FtF objectives, prior analytics, and stakeholder consultations
6. Describe target areas and populations
7. Draft outline and key elements of a tree crops value chain SOW (which the mission can act on and move
forward with should they choose to support such a program)
8. Outline procurement options and issues affecting the mission’s decision on procurement instrument
TIMELINE
DELIVERABLES
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Alliance for a Green Revolution in Amatevi Raoul Klutse T: +233 21 740 674
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Accra Development rklutse@agra-alliance.org
Steven