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Khawaja Talha 14020296

Adiah afraz

SS100 Writing and Communication

April 13 2011

Nuclear winter: Critique

Carl Sagan, a world renowned astronomer and cosmologist, in his article ³Nuclear Winter´ tries

to enlighten the world about grievous physical and chemical effects of a thermonuclear war. At

the time his article was published, Oct 31 1983, the two Superpowers of the world were

competing in an Arms race; both excelling in the production of nuclear weapons. However, this

article, to some extent has helped both countries to realize the intensity of a nuclear war; Ronald

Reagan, president of USA, in one of his interviews said ³« as a great many reputable scientists

are telling us, that such a war could just end up in no victory for anyone, because we would wipe

out the Earth as we know it´(Ronald Reagan, interview with Bernard Weinraub and Gerald

Boyd, New York Times). Although, author has excelled in grabbing the reader¶s attention by use

of certain facts and figures, emotional appeal, persuasive and alarming tone and has achieved his

goal of making the reader aware of dire circumstances of a nuclear war, yet his findings are more

theoretical and based on computer models and lacks substantial support for generalizations about

southern hemisphere.

In his essay, Carl Sagan explains the destructive effects of a nuclear War. He claims that

the nuclear arsenal produced during cold war is much more than it is needed to destroy the

world. Portraying the aftermath of a nuclear war, author writes that ³buildings would vaporize,
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people will be reduced to atoms´ and ³shadows and structures would blow like matchsticks´

(Sagan, 1). In addition, author uses the results of the study of World Health Organization and

states that more than 2 billion people, which is around half of the world¶s population would be

destroyed. Moreover, writer reveals the critical effects on Ozone layer, which shields the earth

from harmful solar ultraviolet radiations, if destroyed can have serious consequences for the

biology of Planet. Furthermore, Carl compares the current situation of Mars with the after-effects

of a nuclear war. Nuclear explosions would produce heavy smoke because of air bursts and

would emit huge amount of fine dust due to ground bursts in the atmosphere, absorbing sunlight

and causing dark shadows which will reduce the average global temperature to minus 25 Celsius,

somewhat similar to the conditions of mars. Hence, plants, crops and animals would be

destroyed and the human survivors would starve. The author concludes that although we haven¶t

experienced a global thermonuclear war since the invention of nuclear weapons, yet men and

machines are fallible.

Analyzing the article critically reveals that the article is well structured along with

adequate use of literary devices including personification and similes. Author personifies the

nuclear weapons with faithful servants: ³the detonation of tens of thousands of nuclear weapons

that now sit quietly, inconspicuously, in missile silos, submarines and long-range bombers,

faithful servants awaiting orders´ (Sagan, 1). Moreover, use of sentences like ³people would be

reduced to atoms and shadows´ and ³outlying structures will be blown down like matchsticks´

(Sagan, 1) creates the image of deadly consequences of a nuclear war in the mind of readers. In

addition, to enforce the seriousness of the topic, Author has used emotional appeal as he says ³I

do not think our luck can hold forever. Concentrating always on near future, we have ignored the
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long term consequences of our actions. We have placed our civilization and our species in

jeopardy´ (Sagan, 5).

In addition to the well structured article, the author has used good examples and

estimations which have created interest for the reader in this article. Author begins with the

estimations of the destruction that can occur by 2 megatons of explosives that is equivalent to 2

million tons of TNT, equal to total explosives used in World War 2 (Sagan, 1). The credibility of

these estimations can¶t b doubted and need no reference as author himself is credible enough and

his forces included Richard Turco, who has studies the effects of nuclear weapons for many

years (Sagan, 2). In addition, author has used findings of the World Health Organization to

support his arguments and make his essay more credible. Furthermore, legitimacy of the article

does not need to be questioned as author gives the reference of his colleagues, who were the part

of NASA¶s Ames Research center. Moreover, as author says ³Our results have been carefully

scrutinized by more than 100 scientists in the United States, Europe and the Soviet Union´ leaves

no doubt that his arguments, findings, and results are authentic, valid and credible (Sagan, 5).

Furthermore, the author has achieved his purpose; his persuasive style of writing

influences the reader to believe in his arguments. Moreover, the author grabs the attention and

alerts his audience by using alarming tone and scaring them of the devastating effects of nuclear

war as he says ³Some of what I am about to describe is horrifying. I know, because it horrifies

me. There is a tendency -- psychiatrists call it "denial" «´ (Sagan, 3).

In spite of this, most of the findings of Carl Sagan in his article are more theoretical

rather than practical. World had encountered a nuclear war when Hiroshima n Nagasaki were

bombarded with nuclear bombs in World War II. Although children there are still born with
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disabilities, yet nothing such as µNuclear Winter¶ was witnessed at that time. In addition, most of

the results such as µdeadly Gloom¶ and the amount of dust and smoke generated are merely

hypothesized scenarios, which means that if the model presented by the author has to be true, the

exact amounts of dust and smoke have to enter the atmosphere in real too as generated by the

computer-based models. Therefore, the author¶s analysis of the effects of a nuclear war may have

been over or under-estimated.

Besides, the author has failed to analyze the effects of a nuclear war in southern

hemisphere and has generalized the effects linking them with northern hemisphere without any

substantial support. Likewise, author has constrained his findings only to climatic effects and has

ignored other, maybe important, effects that may had affected the author¶s findings significantly.

Nevertheless, author has succeeded in creating awareness amongst the readers about the

serious disasters of nuclear war. Author¶s style of writing, that is informative and persuasive

simultaneously, grabs the reader¶s interest and makes them to agree to the author¶s views. In

addition, author¶s use of personification, similes, emotional appeal and credible support

persuades the reader to agree with the author¶s thought of disarmament of nuclear weapons. On

the other hand, the generalizations and results of computer based models together with omission

of factors other than climatic effects weaken the arguments of author.

In brief, author has achieved his motive of persuading his audience against the

development of nuclear arsenals. He has successfully created awareness amongst his audience

about the catastrophic effects of nuclear war. Examples and support provided by the author and

their credibility makes his article more effective. Despite of few weaknesses, overall author has

proficiently conveyed his message across his audience.

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Works Cited



 
 
  
  


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