Monthly Commodity Markets Roundup

Mar 2011

Markets performance
Units Mar-2011 Mon to Year to
date date Index
Vegetable oils
SBO @ CBOT US c/ lb 58.78 3.54% 1.80% > Market performance
CPO @ BMD MYR / T 3,326.00 -4.21% -12.20%
RBD Olein, FOB, Mly US$ /T 1,175.00 -3.49% -6.19% > Analysis
SBO, FOB, Arge US$ /T 1,246.00 -0.80% -1.89% • Oil and oilseeds: Key market drivers
Sunoil, Ex NWE € /T 1,370.00 -2.84% -8.05% in the short to medium term.
Rapeoil, FOB, Dutch € /T 1,025.00 0.99% -5.96%
CPO, cif, Rotterdam € /T 1,246.00 -0.80% -1.89%
CSBO degummed, Ex NWE 950.00 -1.04% -8.03%
> Market visuals
€ /T
Softs and Plantations
• Commodity fundamentals gauge
• Price charts - Agriculture
Sugar 11 @ ICE USc /lb 27.11 -16.61% -15.60%
• Price charts - Energy
Rubber @ TOCOM JPY /kg 432.20 -7.33% 4.27%
Cocoa @ ICE 2,952.00 -21.43% -2.73%
• Indices
US$ /T
Coffee C @ ICE USc /lb 264.15 -2.78% 9.83%
• Currency
• Macroeconomic gauge
Energy and Metals • Traders positions vs. price
Crude oil @ NYMEX US$ /barrel 106.72 10.05% 16.79%
• Spreads Corner
Gold spot US$ /troy oz 1,430.00 1.33% 0.74%
Silver spot US$ /oz 37.60 11.28% 21.84%
Copper @ LME US$ /T 9,428.00 -4.62% -1.79%
Aluminum @ LME US$ /T 2,648.00 1.85% 7.21%
Zinc @ LME US$ /T 2,362.00 -6.27% -3.75%
Indices
DJIA 12,319.70 0.76% 6.41%
FTSE 100 5,908.76 -1.42% 0.15%
Strait times 3,105.85 3.17% -2.64%
S&P GSCI 725.62 5.03% 14.84%
Currencies
US Dollar Index 75.8570 -1.34% -4.01%
GBP / USD 1.6031 -1.38% 2.77%
EUR / USD 1.4165 2.64% 5.89%
USD / JPY 83.1500 1.70% 2.46%
USD / SGD 1.2603 -0.87% -1.73%
USD / MYR 3.0250 -0.79% -1.85%
USD / BRL 1.6315 -1.92% -1.68%
 Monthly Commodity Market Roundup – Mar 2011

Analysis
Oil and oilseeds: Key market drivers in the short to medium term
Agricultural commodities have mostly ended the month in red, although were able to recover from
early month weakness and trim those initial losses. The political tensions in Middle East and North
Africa region intensified further with more countries joining the league. Coupled with the geopolitical
tensions, the natural disaster in Japan shook the financial markets for a while; however, markets could
bounce back on expectations of reconstruction demand and currency interventions. At the same time,
surging energy prices extended lateral support to the agricultural markets in general and help avoid
major losses. The important price drivers of oilseed and vegetable oil markets for the coming period
are discussed below.

i) Expectations on US soybean planting acreage for MY 2011/12

The relative firmness of corn prices over soybean has fueled the expectations of soybean losing
acreage to corn in US in the upcoming marketing year, 2011/12. As evident in Fig-1, the soybean to

Soybean to corn price ratio and acreage trends

Price ratiomin 6
max Corn Soybean
35 range, RHS
5

Soybean to corn price ratio

30 4
Area in mln.ha

3
25

2
20
1

15 0
'73/74 '76/77 '79/80 '82/83 '85/86 '88/89 '91/92 '94/95 '97/98 '00/01 '03/04 '06/07 '09/10
Note: Soybean to corn price ratio range is during the period Feb-June in the corresponding year that is
Fig-1
expected to have more influence on the planting decisions than during other periods of the year

corn price ratio is currently hovering near the lower end of the historical range. The declining ratio
indicates the relative firmness of corn price vis-à-vis soybean price. The price ratio has dropped to
levels previously witnessed in the years 2007/08 and 1996/97, during when corn has managed to gain
an edge over soybean with respect to planting acreage. Year 2011/12 could be a repetition of the
history as the ratio hovers below 1.9 and the same is
indicated by the first planting intentions Table-1: US prospective planting estimates for MY
survey estimates of USDA. As illustrated in 2011/12
the table, US soybean acreage is expected 11/12 – change (Y-o-Y)
10/11 – planting
to drop by over 0.8 million acres from Mar intentio
2009/10 forecast ns
previous year acreage of 77.4 to 76.6
Soybean 77.5 77.4 76.6 -0.8 -1.0%
million acres in 2011/12 while corn is
Corn 86.4 88.2 92.17 3.97 4.5%
expected to gain by 3.97 million acres to Wheat 59.2 53.6 58.02 4.42 8.2%
92.17 million acres during the same period. Cotton 9.15 10.97 12.56 1.59 14.5%
Although these estimates are subject to Source: USDA
revisions, the expectations clearly highlight

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 Monthly Commodity Market Roundup – Mar 2011

the underlying risk to the soybean supplies growth. At the projected acreage and trend line yield of
43.3 bushel per acre, US soybean ending stocks for MY 2011/12 could drop below 100 mb level even
with marginal increase in demand. The same is summarized Table-2.

Table-2: US soybean balance sheet

2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 F Chg (Y-o-Y)
Area planted, mln.acres 75.7 77.5 77.4 76.6 -0.8
Area harvested, mln. acres 74.7 76.4 76.6 75.8 -0.8
Yield, bushels/acre 39.7 44 43.5 43.3 -0.2
Production, mln. bushels 2967 3359 3329 3282 -46.86
Beginning stocks, mb 205 138 151 140 -11
Total supply, mb 3185 3512 3495 3437 -57.86
Crush, mb 1662 1752 1655 1660 5
Exports, mb 1279 1501 1590 1590 0
Ending stocks, mb 138 151 140 87 -52.86
Source: USDA and Pacrim research

Thus it is important for soybean to gain acreage and much would depend upon the relative price
trends of corn and soybean in the coming two months period. Surging crude oil risk premiums with
escalating geopolitical tensions in MENA region and firming up gasoline prices is keeping corn buoyant
on expectations of increase in demand from ethanol production. The firmness in corn prices could
extend lateral support to soybean prices in the coming period.

ii) Falling crush margins is a cause of concern

Mean while, the soybean crush margins that were in uptrend till the recent period have turned down
as highlighted in Fig-2 and
will be a cause of concern Declining soybean crush margin in US and China
80
from the demand
crush margin in US$ per T

60
perspective. The crush
40
margins in China were
20
computed based on the 0
soybean complex futures -20
traded on Dalian commodity -40
exchange and in US were -60
based on soybean complex -80
futures traded on CBOT. The Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan- Jul- Jan-
crush margin in China peaked 06 06 07 07 08 08 09 09 10 10 11
margin in China, active month futures
early in the year 2011 and Source: Reuters and Fig-2
margin in China, spot month continuation
was declining since then. The Pacrim research crush margin in US
crush margin in US remained
flat during the same period. The robust crush and import demand from China backed by raising crush
margins was one of the major bullish factor during the recent uptrend. Declining crush margins
indicate the relative expensiveness of soybean compared to its product prices and highlight the need
for product prices to rally at a much faster pace to keep up with the surging soybean prices, failing
which could weigh on soybean prices.

iii) Slowing US soybean export and crush pace.

US soybean accumulated export shipments have reached 34.22 million tons for the week ending Mar
24, 2011 in the current marketing year, were higher compared to same period previous year level of
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 Monthly Commodity Market Roundup – Mar 2011

33.69 million tons (Fig-3). Though the exports in absolute terms were higher than the previous year
level, lagged behind the previous year’s pace from the relative perspective. The accumulated exports
till date have accounted for 79.1% of the projected marketing year exports (43.27 million tons), were
less than the previous year same period level of 82.46%. During the same period, the outstanding sales
(export sales not yet shipped) remained high at 6.13 million tons vs. 2.69 million tons in the previous
year (Fig-4) and highlight the underlying risk of shipment cancellations in the event of any major price
correction or availability of competitive supplies from other origins.

US soybean weekly export shipment trends, in million tons US soybean weekly outstanding sales, in million tons

45 25
Projected exp for 2010-11 at 43.27 mt Projected exp for 2010-11 at 43.27 mt
40

outstanding sales in mt
20

accumulated exp in mt
35 2010-11 2009-10
5 yr avg 5 yr min
30 5 yr max
15
25
20 10
15
2010-11 2009-10
5 yr avg 5 yr min 10 5
5 yr max
5
0 0
W1 W5 W9 W13 W17 W21 W25 W29 W33 W37 W41 W45 W49 W53 W1 W5 W9 W13 W17 W21 W25 W29 W33 W37 W41 W45 W49 W53
Fig-3 Fig-4
Source: USDA and Pacrim research Source: USDA and Pacrim research

On the domestic consumption front, US soybean crush has accumulated to 874.3 million bushels till
Feb2011 in the current MY (Sep-Aug) and US monthly soybean crush, in million bushels
need to average 130.1 mb per month in the 180
remaining six month period to achieve the

monthly soybean crush, in mb

170
projected marketing year crush of 1655 mb. 160
The soybean crush that begun at above 150
average pace in the current marketing year 140
has lost momentum in the recent period as 5 yr min 130
evident by declining crush volumes during the 5 yr max
2009-10 120
past two month period. (Fig-5) 2010-11 110
5 year average
Slowing down exports and domestic crush in Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 100
Fig-5
the recent period has led to the expectations Source: US census and Pacrim research
that USDA might downsize the MY export and
crush estimates in the upcoming monthly supply and demand report. The USDA estimates on US
soybean exports and domestic crush in the April2011 bulletin shall assume significance and any
downside revisions shall have negative impact on soybean prices.

iv) Harvest in South America

In the other origins, nearly 70% of the soybean crop was harvested in Brazil and about 7% of the crop
was harvested in Argentina for the week ending Mar 31, 2011. The soybean production in these two
nations is currently anticipated at around 70 million tons and 49.5 million tons respectively. Beyond
the production numbers, it is important to watch for incidents of port workers strike or such logistics
disrupting events that were common to happen in these nations at this point of time.

v) Palm oil production revival in Malaysia and Indonesia and export demand
One of the strongest La Nina on records unfolded in the year 2010 and the extended impact of the
same on palm oil production was still being felt in Malaysia and Indonesia. The Malaysian palm oil

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 Monthly Commodity Market Roundup – Mar 2011

production in the first two months of the current calendar year was estimated at 2.15 million tons
compared to same period average production level of 2.5 million tons witnessed during the past two
years. Much would depend upon Malaysian palm oil monthly stocks and stocks to export
the production growth as palm ratio
oil enters into high production 2.5
Stock to export ratio, LHS stocks, RHS
2.5

months in the coming period. At 2.0 2.0

the same time, palm oil export

stocks to export

stocks in mln.T
demand declined in the first two 1.5 1.5

months of the current calendar 1.0 1.0

year as buyers remained
0.5 0.5
sidelined after prices scaled to
multi-month highs earlier in the 0.0 0.0
year. The exports in the first two Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan- Jan-
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
Fig-6
months accumulated to 2.33 Source: MPOB, Reuters and Pacrim research
million tons vs. 2.75 million tons
witnessed in the same period previous year. Slow demand amid marginal increase in supplies by way of
higher imports aided in marginal increase in the stocks to 1.478 million tons by the end of Feb 2011
from the seven month low figure of 1.41 million tons witnessed in Jan 2011. (Fig-6)

The recovery in palm oil import demand from major destinations like India, China, US and EU shall
assume key as palm oil enters into seasonally higher production months. Barring the influence of other
external factors, any failure in demand to catch up could pressurize the prices in the coming period.

vi) Volatile crude oil prices to extend lateral support.

Persistent geopolitical disturbances and spreading revolutionary waves in the MENA region resulted in
increasing crude oil risk premiums. SME, PME and RME price trend and respective price spreads over
Crude oil futures continued to scale ULSD10

up to new multi month highs and

Spreads in US$/T

the accompanying rally in the 500

2500

mineral product prices viz. gasoline

and distillates helped to trim down 0
2000

their discounts to renewable fuels,

1500
which might be an encouraging sign
-500
for discretionary blenders. (Fig-7 and

Price in US$/T
1000
Fig-8). Without undermining the
possibility of renewable fuels -1000
500
premium over mineral oils climbing SME - ULSD, LHS PME - ULSD,LHS RME - ULSD, LHS
SME,CIF,ARA, RHS RME,FOB,ARA, RHS ULSD10, RHS
back to those unattractive levels as -1500
PME,CIF,ARA, RHS
0
Aug-07
Oct-07
Dec-07

Feb-08
Apr-08
Jun-08
Aug-08
Oct-08
Dec-08

Feb-09
Apr-09
Jun-09
Aug-09
Oct-09
Dec-09

Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Aug-10
Oct-10
Dec-10

Feb-11

vegetable oil prices might be bid up

on demand expectations, the surging Fig-7
Source: Reuters and Pacrim research
crude oil prices shall extend lateral
support to the oilseed complex.

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 Monthly Commodity Market Roundup – Mar 2011

Rising gasoline prices relative to Ethanol in US

Line, QRBc1, 05/04/2011, 3.1854 Price

Line, QZEc1, 05/04/2011, 2.695 USD
USG
2
1.5

.1234

Spread, QRBc1, 05/04/2011, 0.4904 Value

USD
USG
0
Spread = Gasoline - Ethanol
-0.5
.1234
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2008 2009 2010 2011[Delayed]
Fig-8
Source: Reuters and Pacrim research

Besides the above discussed factors, the movements in US dollar index would also leave significant
impact on the prices. US dollar index slipped further and hit five month low of 75.47 in the 3rd week of
current month before recovering marginally. The index has been on a sea saw move since then with in
a narrow range of 76.50 to 75.50. Much would depend upon the reaction to these levels as it hovers
over important support region. Any further decline might be supportive to asset prices, although the
same could not be confirmed on chart at the current juncture.

-5- Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd

 Monthly Commodity Market Roundup – Mar 2011

Market Visuals
Commodities fundamental gauge
Global Palm oil Stocks to use vs. Price World Soybean oil Stocks to use vs. Price
all veg oil stocks to use Palmoil stocks to use
all veg oil stocks to use Soybn oil stocks to use
25% Annual avg price Price max 5000
18% Annual avg price Price max 80
Price min 4500
16% Price min 70
20% 4000
14%
60
stocks to use (%)

3500

stocks to use (%)

price in MYR / T
12%

price in USc/lb
15% 3000 50
10%
2500 40
10% 2000 8%
30
1500 6%
5% 1000 20
4%
500 2% 10
0% 0 0% 0
1980/81 85/86 90/91 95/96 00/01 05/06 10/11
1973/74 80/81 85/86 90/91 95/96 00/01 05/06 10/11

World Soybean Stocks to use vs. Price World soybean meal stocks to use vs. price
stocks to use ratio Annual avg price
30% Annual avg price Price max Price min 1800 8% Price max Price min 500

1600 450
7%
25% Stocks to use 400

price in US$ per short ton

1400
price in USc/bushel

6%

stocks to use (%)

stocks to use (%)

350
20% 1200
5% 300
1000
15% 4% 250
800
3% 200
10% 600
150
2%
400 100
5%
200 1%
50
0% 0 0% 0
1973/74 79/80 84/85 89/90 94/95 99/00 04/05 10/11 1973/74 79/80 84/85 89/90 94/95 99/00 04/05 10/11

World Corn Stocks to use vs. Price World Wheat Stocks to use vs. Price
Stocks to use Annual avg price Stocks to use Annual avg price
50% Price max Price min 800 40% Price max Price min 1400
45% 700 35% 1200
40%
600 30%

price in USc / bushel

price in USc / bushel

35% 1000
stocks to use (%)
stocks to use (%)

30% 500 25%

800
25% 400 20%
600
20% 300 15%
15% 400
200 10%
10%
100 5% 200
5%
0% 0 0% 0
1973/74 80/81 85/86 90/91 95/96 00/01 05/06 10/11 1973/74 80/81 85/86 90/91 95/96 00/01 05/06 10/11

World Sugar Stocks to use vs. Price World Cotton Stocks to use vs. Price
Stocks to use Annual avg price Stocks to use Annual avg price
35% Price max Price min 70 70% Price max Price min 270

30% 60 60%
220
25% 50 50%
stocks to use (%)

stocks to use (%)

price in USc/lb

price in USc/lb

20% 40 40% 170

15% 30 30%
120

10% 20 20%
70
5% 10 10%

0% 0 0% 20
1973/74 80/81 85/86 90/91 95/96 00/01 05/06 10/11 1973/74 80/81 85/86 90/91 95/96 00/01 05/06 10/11

Average, Min and Max prices for yr 2011 are Jan 01, 2011 to till date statistics, Source: USDA and Pacrim research

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 Monthly Commodity Market Roundup – Mar 2011
Price charts - Agriculture
CPO futures at BMD, weekly continuous SBO futures at CBOT, weekly continuous
Palm oil continous 3 month cumulative vol (3,295.00, 3,383.00, 3,217.00, 3,340.00, +79.0000) SOYBEAN OIL COMPOSITE Continuous (56.8200, 59.5900, 56.1100, 58.6800, +1.84000) 75
4500 70

4000 65
60
3500 55

3000 50
45
2500 40

2000 35
30
1500 25

1000 20
15
15 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA 500 15 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA
Stoc,9 Stoc,9

50 50

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Soybean futures @ CBOT, weekly continuous Sugar No:11 futures at ICE, weekly continuous
SOYBEANS COMPOSITE Continuous (1,360.00, 1,432.00, 1,341.00, 1,393.75, +35.5000) 1700 SUGAR 11 ICE Continuous (27.8000, 28.0000, 26.2800, 27.4400, -0.42000)
1600 35
1500
1400 30
1300
1200 25
1100
1000 20

900
15
800
700
10
600
500
5
40 EMA 400 40 EMA
15 EMA 200 EMA 15 EMA 200 EMA
Stoc,9 Stoc,9

50 50

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 010 10 11

Rubber Rss3 futures at TOCOM, weekly continuous Corn futures @ CBOT, weekly continuous
RUBBER CONTI 6 MONTH (434.800, 444.500, 430.500, 444.300, +16.9000) 550 CORN COMPOSITE Continuous (692.750, 738.250, 659.250, 736.000, +46.5000) 800
750
500
700
450 650
400 600
550
350
500
300
450
250 400
200 350

150 300
250
100
200
40 EMA 200 EMA 50 40 EMA 200 EMA 150
15 EMA 15 EMA
Stoc,9 Stoc,9

50 50

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Wheat futures @ CBOT, weekly continuous Cotton futures @ ICE, weekly continuous
WHEAT COMPOSITE Continuous (736.000, 774.000, 721.000, 759.500, +26.2500) 1400 COTTON NO 2 ICE Continuous (202.890, 204.000, 192.230, 195.550, -8.94000)
1300
1200 200
1100
1000
900 150
800
700
600 100

500
400
50
300

15 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA 200 15 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA

Stoc,9 Stoc,9

50 50

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Source: Reuters and Pacrim research

-7- Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd

 Monthly Commodity Market Roundup – Mar 2011
Price Charts – Energy and Metals
Crude oil at NYMEX, US$ / barrel, weekly Natural Gas at NYMEX,
LIGHT CRUDE COMPOSITE Continuous (105.430, 108.470, 102.700, 107.940, +2.54000) NATURAL GAS COMPOSITE Continuous (4.42500, 4.48000, 4.19700, 4.36200, -0.04100)
150 16
140 15
130 14
120 13
110 12
100 11
90 10
9
80
8
70
7
60
6
50
5
40 4
30 3
20 2
15 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA 10 15 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA 1
Stoc,9 Stoc,9

50 50

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Gold, spot, weekly, US$ / oz Silver, spot, weekly, USc/oz.

gold (1,425.85, 1,439.30, 1,409.95, 1,427.88, -0.77002) 1500 s ilver (37.2200, 37.9300, 36.4000, 37.6800, +0.39000) 40
1400
35
1300
1200
30
1100
1000 25
900
800 20
700
15
600
500
10
400
300 5
15 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA 200 15 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA
Stoc,9 Stoc,9

50 50

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Copper at LME, 3M forward, weekly, US$ /T Zinc at LME, 3M forward, weekly, US$/T
3MT COPPER USD (9,515.00, 9,590.00, 9,305.00, 9,360.00, -325.000) 10500 3MT ZINC DLR (2,362.00, 2,390.00, 2,325.00, 2,390.00, +13.0000)
10000 4500
9500
9000 4000
8500
8000
7500 3500
7000
6500 3000
6000
5500 2500
5000
4500
4000 2000
3500
3000 1500
2500
2000 1000
1500
15 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA1000 15 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA 500
Stoc,9 Stoc,9

50 50

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Aluminium at LME, 3M forward, weekly, US$ /T Lead at LME, 3M forward, weekly, US$/T
3MT ALUMINIUM $ (2,602.00, 2,653.00, 2,602.00, 2,631.00, -10.0000) 3500 3MT LEAD DLR (2,640.00, 2,698.00, 2,618.00, 2,698.00, +28.0000) 4000

3500
3000
3000

2500 2500

2000

2000
1500

1000
1500
500
15 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA
15 EMA
Stoc,9 Stoc,9
50 50

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Source: Reuters and Pacrim research

-8- Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd

 Monthly Commodity Market Roundup – Mar 2011
Indices, weekly charts
DowJones Industrial Average, US S & P 500, US
Dow Jones INDU AVERAGE NDX (12,221.20, 12,419.70, 12,173.50, 12,376.70, +156.101) 14500 S&P 500 INDEX (1,313.80, 1,337.85, 1,305.76, 1,332.41, +18.6100) 1600
14000
13500 1500
13000
12500 1400
12000 1300
11500
11000 1200
10500
10000 1100
9500 1000
9000
8500 900
8000
7500 800
7000
700
6500
15 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA 6000 15 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA
Stoc,9 Stoc,9

50 50

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

FTSE-100, UK Strait Times Index, Singapore

FTSE 100 INDEX (5,900.76, 6,014.77, 5,879.90, 6,009.92, +109.160) STI FTSE STRAIT TIMES INDEX (3,063.04, 3,131.07, 3,044.01, 3,120.47, +49.6299) 4000
7000

6500
3500

6000
3000
5500

5000 2500

4500
2000

4000
1500
3500

15 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA 15 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA1000

Stoc,9 Stoc,9

50 50

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1999 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Shangai Composite Index, China BSE Sensex, India

SHANGHAI SE COMPOSITE INDEX (2,985.36, 3,005.78, 2,914.38, 2,967.41, -10.4001) BOMBAY SE SENSEX INDEX (18,799.70, 19,575.20, 18,799.60, 19,420.40, +604.801)
6000
20000
5500
5000
4500 15000
4000
3500
3000 10000

2500
2000
5000
1500
1000
15 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA 15 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA
Stoc,9 Stoc,9

50 50

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

S & P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index, weekly VIX (Volatility Index)

S&P GSCI INDEX (719.480, 732.180, 705.010, 731.444, +12.7150) Volatility Index (18.3100, 19.7800, 16.4400, 17.4000, -0.51000) 95
900 90
850 85
800 80
750 75
700 70
650 65
60
600
55
550 50
500 45
450 40
400 35
350 30
300 25
250 20
200 15
150 10
15 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA 15 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA 5
Stoc,9 Stoc,9

50 50

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: Reuters and Pacrim research

-9- Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd

 Monthly Commodity Market Roundup – Mar 2011
Currencies, weekly charts
US Dollar Index spot GBP / USD
US DOLLAR INDEX (76.3260, 76.6100, 75.6640, 75.8330, -0.38400) UK pound sterling (1.60050, 1.61510, 1.59340, 1.61110, +0.00750) 2.15
120 2.10
2.05
115
2.00
110 1.95
1.90
105 1.85
100 1.80
1.75
95 1.70
90 1.65
1.60
85 1.55
80 1.50
1.45
75 1.40
70 1.35
15 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA 15 EMA 40 EMA 200 EMA 1.30
Stoc,9 Stoc,9

50 50

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

EUR / USD USD / JPY

EuroDollar (1.40450, 1.42450, 1.40190, 1.42280, +0.01470) Japanese yen (81.3300, 84.7200, 81.3300, 84.0400, +2.73000)
1.60 135
1.55 130
1.50
1.45 125
1.40 120
1.35 115
1.30
1.25 110
1.20 105
1.15
100
1.10
1.05 95
1.00 90
0.95
85
0.90
0.85 80
40 EMA 200 EMA 0.80 40 EMA 200 EMA 75
15 EMA 15 EMA
Stoc,9 Stoc,9

50 50

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

USD / SGD USD / MYR

Singapore dollar (1.26150, 1.26420, 1.25800, 1.26000, -0.00150) Malaysian ringgit (3.02500, 3.03000, 3.02140, 3.02550, +0.00050)
1.85
1.80 3.9
1.75 3.8
1.70
3.7
1.65
1.60 3.6

1.55 3.5
1.50 3.4
1.45
3.3
1.40
3.2
1.35
1.30 3.1

40 EMA 200 EMA 1.25 40 EMA 200 EMA 3.0

15 EMA 15 EMA
Stoc,9 Stoc,9

50 50

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

USD 10 year treasury yield EUR 10 year treasury yield

Line, QUS10YT=RR, 10/04/2011, 3.4701 Yield Line, QEU10YT=RR, 10/04/2011, 3.391 Yield
SMA, QUS10YT=RR, 10/04/2011, 3.0446 SMA, QEU10YT=RR, 10/04/2011, 2.786
4.5
6
4
5
3.5
4
3 3
.1234 2.5
.123
StochS, QUS10YT=RR, 10/04/2011, 49.612 Value
StochS, QUS10YT=RR, 10/04/2011, 40.222 StochS, QEU10YT=RR, 10/04/2011, 86.342 Value
StochS, QEU10YT=RR, 10/04/2011, 74.452
.123
.123
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010

Source: Reuters and Pacrim research

-10- Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd

 Monthly Commodity Market Roundup – Mar 2011

Macroeconomic gauge
Unemployment rate in US, UK, EURO ZONE, Germany and JPY (%) Industrial production index (manufacturing) in US, GBP and JPY
Value Value
Line, QaUSUNR/A, (S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 8.8 Line, QaGBMFG/CA, (Base Year=2006)(S1, S2), 31/01/2011, 92.9
Line, QaJPUNR/A, (S1, S2), 28/02/2011, 4.6 Germany Line, QaUSMFG/CA, (Base Year=2007)(S1, S2), 28/02/2011, 90.192 JPY
Line, QaXZUNR/A, (S1, S2), 28/02/2011, 9.9 Line, QaJPIPMAN/A, (Base Year=2005)(S1, S2), 28/02/2011, 96.4
Line, QaGBUEMPYT/A, (S1, S2), 31/12/2010, 8 10 100
Line, QaDEUNR/A, (S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 7.10
EUR 9 95
8 GBP
90
7
US 85
USD 6
UK JPY 80
5
75

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010

Automobile sales in US and China US survey indexes, ISM mgf and services, CB consumer confidence
Value Value Value
Line, QaCNDSLSAUT, (S1, S2), 28/02/2011, 1.267M Line, QaUSNPMI/A, (S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 61.2
Line, QaUSVHLS, (S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 1.242M Line, QaUSNMFGPMI, (S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 57.3 ISM manufacturing
1.6M
120 Line, QaUSCONCF/A, (Base Year=1985)(S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 63.4 55
1.4M

1.2M 100
50
USA 1M
80
ISM services 45
800,000

600,000 60
40
400,000 CB Consumer confidence, LHS
40
China 200,000 35

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010
Key interest rates, in % Consumer price inflation (YoY), %
Price Value
Line, QJPPRIME=, 30/04/2011, 1.6 PctCng, QaUSCPI/A, (Base Year=1982)(S1, S2), 28/02/2011, 2.164
Line, QGBPRIME=, 30/04/2011, 0.5 INR PctCng, QaGBCPI, (S1, S2), 28/02/2011, 4.34
Line, QECBMRO=ECBF, 30/04/2011, 1 Line, QaINCPINET, (S1, S2), 28/02/2011, 8.823 12
Line, QUSPRIME=, 30/04/2011, 3.25 12 Line, QaXZCPIALL, (S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 2.6
Line, QaINPLR, (S1, S2), 31/03/2011, 9.5 Line, QaJPCPINY, (S1, S2), 28/02/2011, 0
Line, QaCNLENR1Y, (S1, S2), 30/04/2011, 6.06 10 Line, QaCNCPIYY, (S1, S2), 28/02/2011, 4.9 9

US 8
6
CNY
6
3
GBP 4
EUR 0
2
JPY .12 .123
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010

Source: Reuters, IMF and Pacrim research

-11- Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd

 Monthly Commodity Market Roundup – Mar 2011

Traders positions vs. Price

Soybean at CBOT Soybean oil at CBOT
200

1600

100
Producers Net Producers Net
Swap dealers Net Swap dealers Net
Speculative Net Speculative Net

60
100

1000 1200 1400

50
Close price,RHS Close price,RHS

price, USc/bushel

price, USc/lb
0

50
'000 lots

'000 lots
-50
-100

40
-100
-200

800

-150

30
-300

600

-200
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Sugar No:11 at ICE Crude oil at NYMEX

140
Producers Net Producers Net
200

Swap dealers Net Swap dealers Net

30
Speculative Net Speculative Net

120
200
Close price,RHS 25 Close price,RHS

price, US$/barrel
0

100
price, USc/lb
'000 lots

'000 lots
0
20
-200

80
-200
15

60
-400

10

40
-400

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Gold at COMEX Copper at COMEX

300

60

450
1400

Producers Net Producers Net

Swap dealers Net Swap dealers Net
200

40

400
Speculative Net Speculative Net
Close price,RHS Close price,RHS
1200
100

20

250 300 350

price, USD / t.oz

price, USc / lb
'000 lots

'000 lots
0
1000
0

-20
-100

800

-40
-200

200
-60

150
-300

600

-80

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Corn at CBOT Cotton No:2 at ICE

100

200
400

Producers Net Producers Net

700

Swap dealers Net Swap dealers Net

Speculative Net Speculative Net
50
200

Close price,RHS Close price,RHS

600
price, USc / bushel

150
0

price, USc / lb
0
'000 lots

'000 lots
500

-200 -150 -100 -50

-200

100
400
-400

300
-600

50
200

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Source: CFTC and Pacrim research

-12- Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd

 Monthly Commodity Market Roundup – Mar 2011

Spreads corner
PME vs. ULSD CPO vs. PFAD

Spread, QPALM-MYFOB-P1, 05/04/2011, 320.58 Value

Spread, QPME-CIFARA, 05/04/2011, 250.5 Value
EMA, Spread(QPALM-MYFOB-P1, QPFAD-MYFOB-P1), 05/04/2011, 184.33 USD
SMA, Spread(QPME-CIFARA, QULSD10-C-NWE), 05/04/2011, 347.23 USD
T
T 252.58
200
0 100
.12 .12

Line, QPME-CIFARA, 31/03/2011, 1,290 Price Line, QPALM-MYFOB-P1, 05/04/2011, 1,130.58 Price
Line, QULSD10-C-NWE, 05/04/2011, 1,039.5 USD Line, QPFAD-MYFOB-P1, 05/04/2011, 810 USD
T
T

600
.12
.12
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2000 2010

Coconut oil vs Palm kernel oil CPO CIF vs. CPKO CIF

Spread, QCNUT-PHID-P1, 05/04/2011, 210 Value Spread, QPALK-MYID-P1, 05/04/2011, 730 Value
EMA, Spread(QCNUT-PHID-P1, QPALK-MYID-P1), 05/04/2011, -41.43 USD SMA, Spread(QPALK-MYID-P1, QPALM-MYCRD-P1), 05/04/2011, 559.76 USD
T T
0
-100
.12
.12

Price Line, QPALK-MYID-P1, 05/04/2011, 1,880 Price

Line, QCNUT-PHID-P1, 05/04/2011, 2,090
Line, QPALK-MYID-P1, 05/04/2011, 1,880 USD Line, QPALM-MYCRD-P1, 05/04/2011, 1,150 USD
T T
1,000 1,000
500
.12
.12
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010

Soybean vs. Corn Wheat vs. Corn

Ratio, QSc1, 10/04/2011, 1@6.37 Value Ratio, QWc1, 10/04/2011, 1@0.2 Value
SMA, Ratio(QSc1, QCc1), 10/04/2011, 2@4.2 USc SMA, Ratio(QWc1, QCc1), 10/04/2011, 1@4.12 USc
Bsh Bsh
2@4 1@4
1@7
1/8 1/8

Line, QSc1, 10/04/2011, 1378@4 Price Line, QWc1, 10/04/2011, 786@4 Price
Line, QCc1, 10/04/2011, 767@2 USc Line, QCc1, 10/04/2011, 767@2 USc
Bsh Bsh
800 600

400
400
1/8 1/8
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 1995 2000 2005 2010
1990 2000 2010[Delayed] 1990 2000 2010[Delayed]

Source: Reuters and Pacrim research

-13- Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd

 Monthly Commodity Market Roundup – Mar 2011

Disclaimer: The research presented in this document is based on the information obtained from sources
we believe to be reliable, but we do not make any representation or warranty nor accept any responsibility
or liability as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Nothing contained herein shall be construed as
a recommendation to buy or sell cash commodities, commodity futures or options on futures.

-14- Pacific Rim Plantation Services Pte Ltd