May | June 2011

Feature title: The impact of climate change on the supply of aquafeed ingredients

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The International magazine for the aquaculture feed industry


Feed Management
The third article in a series, taken from a new aquaculture book
T
he uncertainly concerning
the availability of tradi-
tional fishmeal and fish
oil and rising prices have
required major industrial aquafeed
manufactures to identify and evaluate
alternate protein
onal AquAFeed | May-June 2011 and oil sources. weather
Considerable progress has been made
in recent years on substitution of fish
protein and oil with proteins and oils
of plant origin.
Grain crop yields, as with other arable in 2006. The crop yields in the Russian
crops, when negatively affected by variable Federation and Ukraine were markedly
and adverse weather conditions, increase
uncertainty about grain supplies and prices. tered two years (2006 and 2007) of severe
Climate change, which is being
driven by global warming caused
mainly by carbon emissions from
industrialised countries, will
continue to influence temperature
and precipitation patterns around
the world.
Therefore, the reliability of grain sup- and in a great number of key countries
plies for aquafeeds in the future will be
influenced by short–term weather patterns
and long–term predicted global warming
directly through its impact on crop yields,
crop pests and diseases and soil fertility
and condition.
Impact of rising feed ingredient
prices on aquafeeds and
aquaculture production:
The impact of climate change on the supply
of aquafeed ingredients
by Krishen J Rana, Sunil
Supply will be also influenced by climate
change indirectly through its impacts on
economic growth, income distribution and
agricultural demand (Schmidhuber and
Tubiello, 2007).
During the past few years, unpredictable
resulted in a critical shortfall of
major grain and oilseed ingredients used for
on–farm aquafeeds as well as for complete
commercial diets. IAF11.03.indd 25 over large areas, while in Canada, a hot and
Unfavourable weather reduced crop
yield and production in some countries
lower due to drought. Australia encoun-
drought and South Africa also
experienced drought.
Consequently, the reduced
world production and supply of
grains and oilseeds contributed
to a further decline in the global
stock–to–use ratio for aggregate
grains and oilseeds, and also
rising prices. In September 2006,
maize prices began a significant
rise to a new high.
Adverse weather patterns
continued into 2007 negatively
affecting yields and global grain
supplies on most continents
supplying global markets with aquafeed
ingredients such as rapeseed, soybean
and grains.
Northern Europe encountered a dry
spring and floods during harvesting time,
while southeast Europe suffered a drought.
44
444
|| InternatIonal
InternatIonal AquAFeed
| InternatIonal AquAFeed
AquAFeed || May-June
vehicles (biodiesel and bioethanol), is a very with the first-
promising alternative generation bio-
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2011
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We also need to establish the most
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In the Americas, a late heavy freeze over Wenger_Ad_2010_210x147mm 5/24/10 9:37 AM Page 1
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May-June 2011 | InternatIonal AquAFeed | 25
tracts of hard red winter wheat and in the
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04/05/2011 09:07 innovations 2011
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In South America, a late freeze followed
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also affected major growing areas. The ties faced by their businesses.
accumulative result of bad weather in 2007
resulted in the second consecutive drop Seventy-five years ago, a key
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oilseeds, causing a further decline in the Today, the solutions tend to
global stocks–to–use ratio and creating be more technologically com-
uncertainty among importers about the plex – but our founding
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to future availability of supplies. This placed an
upward pressure on prices of plant proteins
and oils used as aquafeed ingredients.
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arable areas of Australia, serious drought 28 & 29 September 2011, Amsterdam (The Netherlands)
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Trends & Developments for Food, Feed, Petfood Industries
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May-June
| May-June
2011
2011
2011 May-June 2011 | InternatIonal AquAFeed | 5

Feed Management
"It is now widely
acknowledged that global
weather patterns are
unstable and that the
frequencies of adverse
climatic conditions are likely
to increase"
expected to continue well into March and
April 2009.
The predictably of rainfall can also affect
supplies of grains. In Australia, in 2009, inter-
mittent rain during the growing season and
heavy rains during harvesting time reduced
crop yields and available supplies of wheat.
It is now widely acknowledged that
global weather patterns are unstable and
that the frequencies of adverse climatic
conditions are likely to increase. Climate
change, which is being driven by global
warming caused mainly by carbon emissions
from industrialised countries, will continue
to influence temperature and precipitation
patterns around the world. This, in turn, will
place severe upward pressure on water
supplies in water-stressed regions of the
world and may result in shifts in geo–
physical growing areas for the major protein
crops and oil-plant crops yields of which are
used in aquafeed production.
The effects of changing weather patterns
are complex and several models have been
In Australia, in 2009, intermittent rain
during the growing season and heavy
rains during harvesting time reduced
crop yields and available supplies of
wheat.
46 | InternatIonal AquAFeed | May-June 2011
developed to predict the degree of impact
of such climate change on agricultural
output.
All models use varying assumptions (for
a comprehensive review see Cline, 2007).
The key assumption is that carbon con-
centrations in the atmosphere will increase
as a result of greenhouse gas emissions
from the current (2007) 365ppm to above
a threshold of around 585ppm, reach-
ing 735ppm by 2080. This would foster
increased production through increased
photosynthetic activity, a phenomenon
referred to as carbon fertilisation and hence
increased yields (Cline, 2007).
This positive effect, however, is reduced
and reversed when the atmospheric tem-
perature rises above 12–14 deg C. By
combining information on carbon fertilisa-
tion with information on changes in average
annual temperatures and precipitations,
Cline (2007) predicted the potential impact
of these changes on national agricultural
output.
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More information:
Krishen J. Rana & Sunil Siriwardena
Institute of Aquaculture University of Stirling,
Stirling, United Kingdom
Mohammad R. Hasan
Aquaculture Management and Conservation
Service, Fisheries and Aquaculture
Management Division, FAO Fisheries and
Aquaculture Department Rome, Italy
Food and Agriculture Organization of the
United Nations (FAO)
Website: www.fao.org
Innovations for a better world.
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