Professional Documents
Culture Documents
A Post-crisis Perspective
on Diversification for Risk
Management
May 2011
Institute
The authors are grateful to Professor Lionel Martellini for useful comments and suggestions.
Table of Contents
Abstract..................................................................................................................... 5
Introduction ............................................................................................................. 7
Conclusion...............................................................................................................29
Appendices..............................................................................................................31
References...............................................................................................................37
Abstract
Introduction
Although the idea behind it has long The limitations of diversification mean that,
existed, a scientifically consistent in certain market conditions, it can fail
framework for diversification, modern dramatically. Using a conditional correlation
portfolio theory (MPT), was first posited model, Longin and Solnik (2001) conclude
by Markowitz (1952). Diversification— that correlations of international equity
international diversification, sector and markets2 increase in bear markets. In
style diversification, and so on—has since severe downturns, then, diversification
become the pillar of many investment is unreliable. Furthermore, it is generally
philosophies. It has also become a very incapable of dealing with loss control. So
important risk management technique, enhancing the quantitative techniques
so much so that it is often considered, behind it by using more sophisticated risk
erroneously, synonymous with risk measures and distributional models can lead
management. In fact, diversification as a to more effective diversification but not to
Introduction
substantially smaller losses in crashes. Loss subsequent papers generalise the model
control can be implemented in a sound by imposing minimum performance
way only by going beyond diversification constraints relative to a stochastic, as
to hedging and insurance, two other opposed to a deterministic, benchmark.
approaches to risk management. Teplá (2001), for example, demonstrates
that the optimal strategy in the presence
A much more general and consistent of such constraints involves a long position
framework for risk management is provided in an exchange option.4
by the dynamic portfolio theory posited
by Merton (1969, 1971). The theory The much more general and flexible
presents the most natural form of asset dynamic portfolio theory leads to new
management, generalising substantially insight into risk management in general
the static portfolio selection model and the role of diversification. In this
developed by Markowitz (1952).3 Merton framework, diversification provides access
(1971) demonstrated that in addition to the to performance through a building block
standard speculative motive, non-myopic known as a performance-seeking portfolio
long-term investors include intertemporal (PSP). Downside risk control is achieved by
3 - In fact, extensions of the
dynamic portfolio theory
hedging demands in the presence of a assigning state-dependent—and possibly
concern asset/liability stochastic opportunity set. The model has dynamic—weights to the PSP and to a
management, but the liability
side is beyond the scope of been extended in several directions: with portfolio of safe, or risk-free, assets.
this paper.
4 - See also Martellini
stochastic interest rates only (Lioui and
and Milhau (2010) and Poncet 2001; Munk and Sørensen 2004), In fact, since the latest financial crisis,
the references therein for
additional details. with a stochastic, mean-reverting equity there has been confusion among market
risk premium and non-stochastic interest participants not only about the benefits and
rates (Kim and Omberg 1996; Wachter limitations of diversification as a method
2002), and with both variables stochastic for risk management but also about how
(Brennan et al. 1997; Munk et al. 2004). the methods of hedging and insurance are
related to diversification. In this paper, our
In addition to these developments, goal is to review diversification and clarify
recognising that long-term investors its purpose. Going back to the conceptual
usually have such short-term constraints underpinnings of several risk management
as maximum-drawdown limits, or a strategies, we see that, in a dynamic asset
particular wealth requirement, leads management framework, diversification,
to further extensions of the model. hedging, and insurance are complementary
Minimum performance constraints were rather than competing techniques for sound
first introduced in the context of constant risk management. The paper is organised in
proportion portfolio insurance (CPPI) (Black two parts. The first discusses the benefits
and Jones 1987; Black and Perold 1992), and and limits of diversification. The second
in the context of option-based portfolio moves on to hedging and insurance and
insurance (OBPI) (Leland 1980). More discusses diversification as a method of
recent papers (Grossman and Zhou 1996) reducing the cost of insurance.
demonstrate that both of these strategies
can be optimal for some investors and
Introduction
only. More formally, if all correlations are of the S&P 500 from the beginning of 2000
exactly equal to 1, total portfolio variance to 2010. The average correlation increased
can be represented as around the dot-com bubble and the 9/11
attacks and in the financial meltdown of
2008.
Figure 2: Even though optimised portfolios such as MSR and GMV distributed or if investors have quadratic
are well diversified, they suffered large losses during the 2008
crisis. For comparison, the EW portfolio and the cap-weighted utility functions; both of which assumptions
S&P 500 are also shown. are overly simplistic. Empirical research has
firmly established that—especially at high
frequencies—asset returns can be skewed,
leptokurtic, and fat-tailed and quadratic
utility functions arise in the model as a
second-order Taylor series approximation
of a general utility function.
Holding everything else equal, we consider by design, for all coherent risk measures.
CVaR and VaR alternative risk measures at a As a result, the dependence structure of
standard confidence level of 95% for both. the asset returns determines the presence
Figure 3 shows the values of the global of diversification opportunities, whereas
12 - See, for example, minimum CVaR (GM CVaR) and the global the function of the risk measure is to
Ekeland et al. (2009) and
Rüschendorf (2010).
minimum VaR (GM VaR) portfolios through identify them and transform them into
13 - Comonotonicity is in time and table 2 shows the corresponding actual allocations.14 For the worst possible
fact a characteristic of the
upper Fréchet-Hoeffding maximum-drawdown statistics. The losses in dependence structure, which is that of
bound of any multivariate
distribution. Since in this
table 2 are significant, though the GM CVaR functional dependence, the inequality in Eq.
analysis we hold the marginal portfolio leads to drawdown marginally 3 turns into an equality, which means that
distributions fixed, it follows
that the comonotonic lower that that of the GMV portfolio (see it is not possible to find a portfolio whose
behaviour is a property of
the dependence structure of
table 1). risk is smaller than the weighted average
the random vector, or the of the standalone risks. Intuitively, under
so-called copula function.
As a consequence, the That table 2 shows no significant reduction these circumstances, a 10% drop in one of
presence of diversification
opportunities is a copula
in drawdown is unsurprising. By building the the assets determines exactly the changes
property. This statement is in GM VaR portfolio, we are actually minimising in the other assets, since they are increasing
line with the conclusion that
diversification opportunities the loss occurring with a given probability functions of each other. In a situation such
are a function of correlations
in the Markowitz framework
(5% in the example in the example in figure as this one, holding a broadly diversified
since the copula function in 3). There is no guarantee that large losses portfolio is just as good as holding only a
the multivariate Gaussian
world is uniquely determined will not be observed. Likewise, by building few assets.
by the correlation matrix.
14 - We need the technical
the GM CVaR portfolio, we are minimising
condition sup(X,Y) ρ(X + Y) an average of the extreme losses. Again, As a consequence, we can argue that
= ρ(X) + ρ(Y) where the
supremum is calculated over having a small average extreme loss does generalising the mean-variance framework
all bivariate distributions
(X,Y) with fixed marginals.
not necessarily imply an absence of large leads to the conclusion that, if securities
This condition is introduced losses in market crashes. are nearly functionally dependent in market
as a separate axiom in
Ekeland et al. (2009). See crashes, then there are no diversification
appendix 2 for additional
details.
In fact, it is possible to make a more general opportunities. Under these conditions,
statement that is independent of the choice choosing a risk measure is redundant
of risk measure. In the previous section, we because the argument is generic (see
argue that diversification opportunities appendix 2 for additional details).
disappear when the correlation of asset
returns is close to 1. Leaving the multivariate Statistical arguments provide evidence for
normal world complicates the analysis, this conclusion as well. Figures 2 and 3
but it is possible to demonstrate12 that show the in-sample performance of the
diversification opportunities disappear optimised strategies. In this calculation,
if asset returns become comonotonic we assume perfect knowledge of the mean
(increasing functions of each other), which and variance in the Markowitz analysis
corresponds to perfect linear dependence and perfect knowledge of the multivariate
in the Markowitz framework.13 distribution for the GM CVaR and GM VaR
examples. Yet in these perfect conditions,
In Eq. 3 the joint distribution of X and Y can none of the optimised strategies is able to
be any; the property is assumed to hold for provide reasonable loss protection in 2008.
all possible multivariate distributions and, In reality, the optimal solutions would be
influenced by the noise coming from our The additional information, however, comes
imperfect knowledge of these parameters, at a cost. The coskewness and cokurtosis
suggesting that the results may be even parameters increase significantly the
worse. However, our results with perfect total number of parameters that need to
parameter knowledge show that attempts be estimated from historical data. Thus,
to improve the parameter estimators, or the a portfolio of 100 assets would require
model for the multivariate distribution, will estimation of more than 4.5 million
be of little help in reducing the drawdown parameters. Compared to accounting for
of optimally diversified portfolios in severe higher-order moments when coskewness
market crashes. and cokurtosis parameters are estimated
without properly handling estimation risk, a
simple mean-variance approach thus tends
Diversification and higher-order to lead to better out-of-sample results
comoments since it avoids the error-prone estimation
Another way to extend the framework of higher-order dependencies. Nevertheless,
beyond the mean-variance analysis is Martellini and Ziemann (2010) demonstrate
to consider higher-order Taylor series that, for lower-dimensional problems, if
approximations of investor’s utility function. the parameter estimation problem is
The higher-order approximation results properly handled, including higher-order
in higher-order moments in the objective comoments adds value to the portfolio
function of the portfolio optimisation selection problem and can lead to higher
problem given in Eq. 1 (Martellini and risk-adjusted returns, indicating that it
Ziemann 2010). Using the fourth-order provides access to additional diversification
approximation, for example, means opportunities. As for protection from losses
incorporating portfolio skewness and in extreme market conditions, however, this
kurtosis in addition to portfolio variance. approach is no more helpful than any of the
In this way, the objective function becomes others discussed in the previous sections.
more realistic in the sense that it takes
into account the empirical facts that asset
returns are asymmetric and exhibit excess
kurtosis.
The discussion in the previous section Hedging: fund separation and risk
illustrates the benefit of diversification, reduction
which is to extract risk premia, and two The mean-variance framework introduced
key shortcomings: (i) it is unreliable in by Markowitz (1952) does not consider
highly correlated markets and (ii) it is not a risk-free asset; the investable universe
an efficient technique of loss control in the consists of risky assets only. Tobin (1958),
short term. Complaints that diversification however, argued that, in the presence of
has failed are somewhat misleading, as a risk-free asset, investors should hold
it was never meant to provide downside portfolios of only two funds—the risk-free
protection in market crashes. From a asset and a fund of risky assets. The fund
practical viewpoint, it is important to of risky assets is the maximum Sharpe ratio
transcend diversification and to identify (MSR) portfolio constructed from the risky
techniques that can complement it and assets. Furthermore, the risk aversion of
offset its shortcomings. investors does not change the structure of
the efficient MSR fund; it affects only the
One potential technique is hedging, relative weights of the two funds in the
15 - This rate is used in all
generally used to offset partially or portfolio. This arrangement is the result of
calculations unless stated completely a specific risk. Hedging can a so-called two-fund separation theorem,
otherwise.
be done in a variety of ways; the best which posits that any risk-averse investor
example, perhaps, is through a position can construct portfolios in two steps: (i)
in futures. Suppose that a given portfolio build the MSR portfolio from the risky
has a long exposure to the price of oil, a assets and (ii) depending on the degree
risk the portfolio manager is unwilling to of risk-aversion, hedge partially the risk
take over a given horizon. One possibility present in the MSR portfolio by allocating a
is to enter into a short position in an oil fraction of the capital to the risk-free asset.
futures contract. If the portfolio has an
Figure 4: The in-sample efficient frontier of the risky assets
undesirable long exposure to a given sector (in blue) and the CML (capital market line) together with the
(financials, say), another hedging strategy is tangency portfolio, the GMV portfolio, and the portfolio with
the same risk as the GMV on the CML. The annualised risk-free
to short sell the corresponding sector index. rate is set to 2%.15
Depending on the circumstances, the hedge
can be perfect, if the corresponding risk is
completely removed, or imperfect (partial),
leading to some residual exposure.
capital market line (CML), a line tangential with the same risk on the CML. The in-sample
to the efficient frontier generated by the performance of the two portfolios is shown
risky assets. Since the point of tangency is in figure 5. Both portfolios are equally risky
the MSR portfolio, it is also known as the in terms of volatility but the one on the
tangency portfolio. Figure 4 illustrates the CML performs better.
geometric property.16
The components of the portfolio account
Introducing a risk-free asset and partial for its better risk/return tradeoff. The
hedging as a technique for risk reduction efficient MSR portfolio is constructed to
raises the following question. For a given provide the highest possible risk-adjusted
risk constraint, which portfolio construction return. Therefore, it is in the construction
technique is better? Taking advantage of of this portfolio that we take advantage of
diversification, maximising expected return diversification to extract premia from the
subject to the risk constraint and choosing risky assets. The MSR portfolio is in fact
the portfolio on the efficient frontier of responsible for the performance of the
the risky assets, or taking advantage of overall strategy. The risk-free asset, by
the fund-separation theorem and, instead contrast, is there to hedge risk. In fact,
16 - The risky assets
generating the efficient
of building a customised portfolio of risky the fund-separation theorem implies that
frontier on the plot are assets, partially hedging the risk of the there is also a functional separation—the
the sector indices of the
S&P 500. We consider the MSR portfolio with the risk-free asset to two funds in the portfolio are responsible
ten-year period from 2000
to 2010. The weights in the
meet the risk constraint? From a theoretical for different functions.
optimisation problem are perspective, the second approach is superior
between -40% and 40%. The
risk-free asset is assumed because the risk-adjusted return of all Although volatility is kept under control,
to yield an annual return of
2%, a return representative
portfolios on the CML is not smaller than both the GMV portfolio and the GMV match
of the average three-month those on the efficient frontier of the risky on the CML (see figure 4) post heavy losses
Treasury bill rate from 2000
to 2010. assets. in the crash of 2008. Unlike diversification,
however, hedging can be used to control
Figure 5: The performance and the dynamics of the maximum
drawdown of the GMV portfolio and the GMV match on the
extreme losses. In theory, the risk-free asset
capital market line has universal hedging properties. If the
portfolio is allocated entirely to the risk-free
asset, then, in theory, it grows at the risk-free
rate. Appropriate allocation to the risk-free
asset can thus hedge partially all aspects of
risk arising from the uncertainty in the risky
assets. We can easily, for example, construct
a portfolio on the CML with an in-sample
maximum drawdown of no more than 10%.
For our dataset, it turns out that a portfolio
with this property is obtained with a 40%
allocation to the MSR portfolio. Explicit
To check this conclusion in practice, we loss control of this type is not possible if
choose the GMV portfolio on the efficient the investor relies only on diversification.
frontier of the risky assets and the portfolio
Figure 6: The in-sample performance of the GMV (in green), the symmetrically the right tail of the return
GMV match on the CML (in blue), and a portfolio on the CML
constructed such that it has a maximum drawdown of 10% (in red) distribution. As a consequence, this approach
can lead to limited drawdown but at the cost
of lower upside potential.
The derivative instrument can be a simple • A rolling-performance floor. This floor
European call option or an exotic product is defined by
depending on additional path-wise features
we would like to engineer.
where t* is a predefined period of time,
Even though CPPI and OBPI are conceptually twelve months, for example. The rolling-
simple, they seem to be based on separate performance floor guarantees that the
techniques rather than on a more basic performance will stay positive over period
framework. Nevertheless, since the option t*.
can, in theory, be replicated dynamically,
both CPPI and OBPI can be viewed as • A maximum-drawdown floor. A
members of a single family of models. In drawdown constraint is implemented by
fact, a much more general extension is valid.
The dynamic portfolio theory developed by
Merton (1969, 1971) can be extended with
absolute or relative constraints on asset where α is a positive parameter less than
value and it is possible to show that both 1 and At portfolio wealth at time t. A
18 - See Amenc et al. (2010b)
for additional information in
CPPI and OBPI arise as optimal strategies for maximum-drawdown floor implies that
the context of the dynamic investors subject to particular constraints the value of the portfolio never falls below
core-satellite approach.
(Basak 1995, 2002). a certain percentage, 100(1 – α)%, of the
maximum value attained in the past. This
The treatment of the constraints in constraint was initially suggested as an
continuous-time dynamic portfolio theory absolute constraint but can be reformulated
is generic; they are introduced in terms of as a relative one.18
a general floor. The floors can be absolute
or relative to a benchmark portfolio. An • A relative-benchmark floor. This relative
absolute floor, for instance, can be any of floor is defined by
the following:
• A capital-guarantee floor. The floor is where k < 1 is a positive multiplier and
calculated by the formula Bt is the value of a benchmark at time t.
This floor guarantees that the value of the
portfolio will stay above 100k% of the value
where rƒ is the risk-free rate, T-t calculates of the benchmark.
the time to horizon, A0 is the initial portfolio
wealth, and k < 1 is a positive multiplier. Several floors can be combined together in
This floor is usually used in CPPI and a single floor by calculating their maximum,
non-violation of this floor guarantees that . The new floor can
the strategy will provide the initial capital then be adopted as a single floor in the
at the horizon. dynamic portfolio optimisation problem.
It follows from the definition that if
is not violated, then none of the other floors
will be, either.
Solving a dynamic asset allocation problem weights of the building blocks. In Eq. 4, the
with an implicit floor constraint results in weights are static, whereas in Eq. 5 they are
an optimal allocation of the following form, state- and, potentially, time-dependent. This
is the improvement that makes insurance
Eq. 5 an adequate general approach to downside
risk management.
Figure 7: The in-sample performance of the 10% maximum-
drawdown strategy on the CML and a dynamic strategy with a
where PSP is the generic notation for the 10% maximum-drawdown constraint
weights of a performance-seeking portfolio,
SAFE the weights in the safe assets, γ the
degree of risk aversion, Ft the value of the
selected floor at time t, and the value
of the optimal constrained portfolio (see
appendix 3 for additional details).
the floor.21 In a recovery, the return from The results are summarised in figure 8. The
the safe asset can be used to build up a plot on the left shows the histograms of the
new cushion and invest again in the MSR annualised return distribution for the two
portfolio. In this way, exposure to extreme strategies superimposed. The blue histogram
risks is limited and access to the upside indicates better access to the upside
is preserved through the MSR portfolio performance of the dynamic strategy. The
because it is designed to extract premia plot on the right shows the corresponding
from risky assets by taking full advantage histograms for the maximum-drawdown
of the method of diversification. distribution. The great difference stems
from the inability of the static approach to
Table 3: The maximum and the average drawdown of the two
strategies in figure 7 between January 2007 and September 2010
keep losses under control. In some states
Strategy Average Max drawdown
of the world, the maximum drawdown
drawdown reaches more than 20%, even though the
Dynamic strategy 2.9% 9.2% same static strategy was designed to have
Static strategy 2% 10% a 10% in-sample maximum drawdown.
In contrast, there is no single state of the
The drawdown characteristics of the world in which the dynamic strategy has
21 - In a practical two strategies are shown in table 3. a maximum drawdown greater than 10%.
implementation, a breach of
the floor may occur because, To all appearances, they both exhibit
as a result of turnover
constraints, trading may need similar in-sample average and maximum Figure 8: The annualised return distribution and the maximum-
drawdown distribution of the dynamic and the static strategies
to be less frequent, which can drawdown. The dynamic strategy, however, calculated from 5,000 sample paths
result in a breach occurring
between rebalancing dates, or has greater upside potential, a result of the
because a perfect hedge with
the SAFE portfolio may not be design of the MSR portfolio.
possible as a result of market
incompleteness, which
implies that there may be The difference in the properties of the
residual risks in the portfolio.
Nevertheless, dynamic asset static and the dynamic approaches are
allocation is the right general best illustrated in a Monte-Carlo study.
approach to controlling
downside risks. Figure 7 compares the performance of only
two paths, but in practice we need more
than two to gain insight into the difference
in the extreme risk exposure of the two
strategies. We fitted a geometric Brownian
motion (GBM) to the MSR sample path
and generated 5,000 paths with a ten-year
horizon. For each path, which represents
one state of the world in this setting, we
calculated the dynamic strategy with a 10%
maximum drawdown. The static strategy is
a fixed-mix portfolio with a 40% allocation
to the MSR portfolio. Then, in each state
of the world, we calculated the annualised
returns and the maximum drawdown of the
two strategies.
Table 4: The risk-return characteristics of the dynamic and the We did a Monte-Carlo study to illustrate
static strategies calculated from the distributions in figure 8
this effect on an insurance strategy with a
Strategy Annualised Average max Largest max
average drawdown drawdown maximum-drawdown constraint. The PSP
return building block is modelled as a GBM,
Dynamic 9.56% 8% 9.64%
strategy
Static 8.26% 10.32% 28.3%
Eq. 6
strategy
where λ is the Sharpe ratio of the strategy.
The risk-return characteristics calculated We adopt the parameter values calibrated in
from the distributions shown in figure 8 are Munk et al. (2004)23 and have the Sharpe
shown in table 4. The annualised average ratio be λ = 0.24, which corresponds to
return of the dynamic strategy is higher the long-term ratio for the S&P 500.24 We
than that of the static strategy, as expected, generated 5,000 sample paths from the
and the big difference in the maximum- model in Eq. 6 with an investment horizon
drawdown distributions is apparent. The of ten years. For each sample path, we
average maximum drawdown of the static calculated the dynamic insurance strategy
strategy is near the in-sample figure of 10%. and computed its average annual return,
22 - Diversification can
involve the transaction
as well as the average annual return of the
costs arising from additional PSP component.
trading.
23 - The model in Munk et Diversification and the cost of
Figure 9: The return distribution of a dynamic strategy compared
al. (2004) is more general
as it allows for a stochastic
insurance to that of the PSP component. The top pair of plots is produced
interest rate. The parameter Diversification can be implemented, at least with the default value of λ = 0.24 and the bottom pair of plots
values used in the simulation is produced with λ = 0.36, which is a 50% improvement on the
are σS = 14.68% and rƒ = in theory,22 at no cost, but insurance always default value. SP is shortfall probability—the probability that
3.69%, the value for rƒ being
the long-term mean in the
has a cost. The cost of insurance is easiest the annualised average return will be negative.
mean-reversion model fitted to spot in the OBPI strategies in which a
by Munk et al. (2004).
24 - See Amenc et al. (2010a). certain amount of capital is invested in
a derivative instrument. In this case, the
cost is the price of the derivative. Since the
derivative can usually be replicated by a
dynamic portfolio, it is clear that such costs
can be present in other types of dynamic
insurance strategies. In such cases, however,
they materialise as implicit opportunity
costs.
Conclusion
The global financial crisis of 2008 has preserving access to the upside through
shifted the attention of all investors to the PSP. In this context, a well-diversified
risk management. In a broad context, risk portfolio is a building block of crucial
management is about maximising the importance. A carefully designed PSP
probability of achieving certain objectives with an improved Sharpe ratio resulting
at the investment horizon while staying from good diversification can reduce the
within a risk budget. Diversification, implicit cost of insurance.
hedging, and insurance can be relied
on to make optimal use of risk budgets.
These three techniques involve different
aspects of risk management, but they are
complementary techniques rather than
competing ones.
Appendix
Appendix 1: Are GMV Portfolios to tilt the portfolio further towards the
Generally Concentrated in lower-volatility assets. When all assets are
Low-Volatility Stocks? perfectly positively correlated, the GMV
If a non-degenerate covariance matrix is long-only portfolio is concentrated entirely
assumed, the optimisation problem in Eq. in the lowest-volatility stock.
1 without the expected return constraint
makes possible the following analytic A way to illustrate this idea is to consider, for
solution, the sake of simplicity, a constant correlation
model and different ranges for the stock
Eq. 7 volatilities. The case in which all stocks have
one and the same volatility is not of interest
where is the inverse of the covariance because the GMV portfolios are trivial—
matrix. The factor in Eq. 7 equally weighted for any correlation. The
ensures that the weights add up to one expectation is that the more we allow the
and, therefore, the optimal solution stock volatilities to vary, the stronger the
is proportional to the vector . This departure from equal weighting will be.
solution is, for all intents and purposes, In this illustration, we choose the inverse
the GMV portfolio. of the Herfindahl index as a measure of
concentration which, in a vector notation,
Suppose that returns of the assets in the takes the form,
portfolio are not correlated. The inverse
of the covariance matrix then has the
following very simple structure, where w is a vector of weights (e.g., the
optimal solution in Eq. 7). For an equally
weighted portfolio, H-1 = n, which stands
for the number of stocks in the universe,
and for a portfolio totally concentrated
in one asset, H-1 = 1. The concentration
metric H-1 is between 1 and n for any other
where σjj is the variance of the return of long-only portfolio.
the j-th asset. In this case, the optimal
solution as given in Eq. 7 is proportional To preserve this interpretation, we calculate
to the inverse of the squared volatilities. the GMV portfolios using the optimisation
As a result, the more diverse the volatilities problem in Eq. 1 with the additional
in the universe are, the more highly the constraint that the weights should be
GMV portfolio is concentrated in the lower- non-negative. We consider a hypothetical
volatility assets. universe of 100 stocks, the annualised
volatilities of which are equally spaced in
It is expected that increasing correlations the following ranges: [16%, 18%], [15%,
from zero to a positive number will lead to 19%], [13%, 21%], and [10%, 24%]. In the
even greater concentration in the lower- three cases, the average volatility is one
volatility assets since, as a result of some and the same; the only difference is the
common factors, it would be optimal dispersion of the volatilities around the
Appendix
Appendix
26 - Technically, these
which is an upper bound of any multivariate
two properties guarantee
distribution function, is the distribution
convexity of ρ. where the supremum is taken with function of a comonotonic random vector.
27 - See, for example, the
original publications of respect to all possible joint distributions; Since the marginal distributions of the
Hoeffding (1940) and Fréchet
(1951).
however, the marginal distributions are upper bound are the same, it follows that
28 - See Rüschendorf (2010) fixed—that is, we vary only the dependence comonotonicity is, essentially, a property of
and the references therein.
structure. This condition implies that the copula, or the dependence structure,
the dependence structure for which of the random vector.
the supremum is attained—call it the
worst possible dependence structure— In fact, the worst possible dependence
leads to a linear decomposition of the structure turns out to be that of
risk measure. If this condition does not comonotonicity. It is possible to show that
hold, then by the sub-additivity property for any convex risk measure that satisfies
for the worst Eq. 8, the following inequality holds,28
possible dependence structure. However,
the strict inequality means that we must
exclude volatility and the multivariate
normal distribution as a possible setup.
Additional motivation for this condition which can be restated in terms of portfolio
can be found in Ekeland et al. (2009). risk and standalone risks as
Eq. 12
To characterise the worst possible
dependence structure, we need the notion
of comonotonicity. A random vector Y is
said to be comonotonic if,27 That is, holding the marginal distributions
fixed, any risk measure satisfying the
1. The following representation holds assumptions above has an absolute
Appendix
maximum when stock returns are increasing We can conclude that diversification
functions of each other. Furthermore, for opportunities are determined essentially
this dependence structure the risk of any by the joint behaviour of stock returns.
portfolio equals the weighted average of The function of risk measures in this more
the risks of the portfolio constituents, which general setting is to provide an objective
means that the risk measure becomes a to translate those opportunities into actual
linear function of portfolio weights. allocations. If there are no diversification
opportunities, however, the choice of
As a result, under the assumption of objective is irrelevant.
comonotonicity, the extension of the
mean-variance analysis in Eq. 1 with a
general risk measure in the objective Appendix 3: Dynamic Portfolio
function turns into a linear programming Choice in Continuous Time with an
problem. And assuming that no short- Implicit Lower Bound
selling is allowed, any point on the efficient In this appendix, we provide in detail the
frontier generated by the extended version assumptions and the problem setup leading
of Eq. 1 is a portfolio of no more than two to the particular solution given in Eq. 5. In
29 - The statement refers to
the general case of distinct
assets,29 indicating that diversification is terms of assumptions, we do not consider
standalone risks. pointless. Trivially, the global minimum risk the most general setting.
30 - See Martellini and
Milhau (2010) for additional portfolio is totally concentrated in the stock
details.
with the smallest standalone risk. Likewise, Consider an economy whose uncertainty is
the global maximum return portfolio is represented through a standard probability
totally concentrated in the stock with the space (Ω, A, P) and a finite time span
maximum expected return. The result for denoted by T.30 Investors trade n assets,
the intermediate points follows from the the prices of which, represented by the
linearity of the risk measure. The reasoning elements of a vector St, evolve as
is independent of the choice of ρ.
Appendix
Eq. 13
where A0 is the initial capital and MT the
pricing kernel. In addition, there is also a
liquidity constraint AT ≥ 0 in an almost-sure
sense for all t ≤ T. On these assumptions,
the solution to the expected utility
maximisation problem in Eq. 13 is given by
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Founded in 1906, EDHEC is The Choice of Asset Allocation An Applied Research Approach
one of the foremost French and Risk Management In an attempt to ensure that the research
business schools. Accredited by
the three main international
EDHEC-Risk structures all of its research it carries out is truly applicable, EDHEC
academic organisations, work around asset allocation and risk has implemented a dual validation
EQUIS, AACSB, and Association management. This issue corresponds to a system for the work of EDHEC-Risk.
of MBAs, EDHEC has for a genuine expectation from the market. All research work must be part of a research
number of years been pursuing
a strategy for international
programme, the relevance and goals of
excellence that led it to set up On the one hand, the prevailing stock market which have been validated from both an
EDHEC-Risk in 2001. situation in recent years has shown the academic and a business viewpoint by
With sixty-six professors, limitations of diversification alone as a risk the Institute's advisory board. This board
research engineers, and research
associates, EDHEC-Risk has
management technique and the usefulness is made up of internationally recognised
the largest asset management of approaches based on dynamic portfolio researchers, the Institute's business partners,
research team in Europe. allocation. and representatives of major international
institutional investors. Management of the
On the other, the appearance of new asset research programmes respects a rigorous
classes (hedge funds, private equity, real validation process, which guarantees the
assets), with risk profiles that are very different scientific quality and the operational
from those of the traditional investment usefulness of the programmes.
universe, constitutes a new opportunity
and challenge for the implementation of Six research programmes have been
allocation in an asset management or asset- conducted by the centre to date:
liability management context. • Asset allocation and alternative
diversification
This strategic choice is applied to all of the • Style and performance analysis
Institute's research programmes, whether • Indices and benchmarking
they involve proposing new methods of • Operational risks and performance
strategic allocation, which integrate the • Asset allocation and derivative
alternative class; taking extreme risks instruments
into account in portfolio construction; • ALM and asset management
studying the usefulness of derivatives in
implementing asset-liability management These programmes receive the support of
approaches; or orienting the concept a large number of financial companies.
of dynamic “core-satellite” investment The results of the research programmes
management in the framework of absolute are disseminated through the EDHEC-Risk
return or target-date funds. locations in London, Nice, and Singapore.
2011
• Amenc, N., L. Martellini, F. Goltz, and D. Sahoo. Is there a risk/return tradeoff across stocks?
An answer from a long-horizon perspective (April).
• Amenc, N., L. Martellini, F. Goltz, and L. Tang. Improved beta? A comparison of index-
weighting schemes (April).
• Sender, S. The elephant in the room: Accounting and sponsor risks in corporate pension plans
(March).
• Martellini, L., and V. Milhau. Optimal design of corporate market debt programmes in the
presence of interest-rate and inflation risks (February).
2010
• Amenc, N., and S. Sender. The European fund management industry needs a better grasp
of non-financial risks (December).
• Amenc, N., S, Focardi, F. Goltz, D. Schröder, and L. Tang. EDHEC-Risk European private
wealth management survey (November).
• Amenc, N., F. Goltz, and L. Tang. Adoption of green investing by institutional investors:
A European survey (November).
• Martellini, L., and V. Milhau. An integrated approach to asset-liability management:
Capital structure choices, pension fund allocation decisions and the rational pricing of
liability streams (November).
• Amenc, N., F. Goltz, Martellini, L., and V. Milhau. New frontiers in benchmarking and
liability-driven investing (September).
• Martellini, L., and V. Milhau. From deterministic to stochastic life-cycle investing:
Implications for the design of improved forms of target date funds (September).
• Martellini, L., and V. Milhau. Capital structure choices, pension fund allocation decisions
and the rational pricing of liability streams (July).
• Sender, S. EDHEC survey of the asset and liability management practices of European
pension funds (June).
• Goltz, F., A. Grigoriu, and L. Tang. The EDHEC European ETF survey 2010 (May).
• Martellini, L., et V. Milhau. Asset-liability management decisions for sovereign wealth
funds (May).
• Amenc, N., and S. Sender. Are hedge-fund UCITS the cure-all? (March).
• Amenc, N., F. Goltz, and A. Grigoriu. Risk control through dynamic core-satellite portfolios
of ETFs: Applications to absolute return funds and tactical asset allocation (January).
• Amenc, N., F. Goltz, and P. Retkowsky. Efficient indexation: An alternative to cap-weighted
indices (January).
• Goltz, F., and V. Le Sourd. Does finance theory make the case for capitalisation-weighted
indexing? (January).
46 An EDHEC-Risk Institute Publication
A Post-Crisis Perspective on Diversification for Risk Management — May 2011
2009
• Sender, S. Reactions to an EDHEC study on the impact of regulatory constraints on the
ALM of pension funds (October).
• Amenc, N., L. Martellini, V. Milhau, and V. Ziemann. Asset-liability management in
private wealth management (September).
• Amenc, N., F. Goltz, A. Grigoriu, and D. Schroeder. The EDHEC European ETF survey (May).
• Sender, S. The European pension fund industry again beset by deficits (May).
• Martellini, L., and V. Milhau. Measuring the benefits of dynamic asset allocation strategies
in the presence of liability constraints (March).
• Le Sourd, V. Hedge fund performance in 2008 (February).
• La gestion indicielle dans l'immobilier et l'indice EDHEC IEIF Immobilier d'Entreprise
France (February).
• Real estate indexing and the EDHEC IEIF Commercial Property (France) Index (February).
• Amenc, N., L. Martellini, and S. Sender. Impact of regulations on the ALM of European
pension funds (January).
• Goltz, F. A long road ahead for portfolio construction: Practitioners' views of an EDHEC
survey. (January).
2008
• Amenc, N., L. Martellini, and V. Ziemann. Alternative investments for institutional
investors: Risk budgeting techniques in asset management and asset-liability management
(December).
• Goltz, F., and D. Schroeder. Hedge fund reporting survey (November).
• D’Hondt, C., and J.-R. Giraud. Transaction cost analysis A-Z: A step towards best execution
in the post-MiFID landscape (November).
• Amenc, N., and D. Schroeder. The pros and cons of passive hedge fund replication
(October).
• Amenc, N., F. Goltz, and D. Schroeder. Reactions to an EDHEC study on asset-liability
management decisions in wealth management (September).
• Amenc, N., F. Goltz, A. Grigoriu, V. Le Sourd, and L. Martellini. The EDHEC European ETF
survey 2008 (June).
• Amenc, N., F. Goltz, and V. Le Sourd. Fundamental differences? Comparing alternative
index weighting mechanisms (April).
• Le Sourd, V. Hedge fund performance in 2007 (February).
• Amenc, N., F. Goltz, V. Le Sourd, and L. Martellini. The EDHEC European investment
practices survey 2008 (January).
2010
• Amenc, N., and V. Le Sourd. The performance of socially responsible investment and
sustainable development in France: An update after the financial crisis (September).
• Amenc, N., A. Chéron, S. Gregoir, and L. Martellini. Il faut préserver le Fonds de Réserve
pour les Retraites (July). With the EDHEC Economics Research Centre.
• Amenc, N., P. Schoefler, and P. Lasserre. Organisation optimale de la liquidité des fonds
d’investissement (March).
• Lioui, A. Spillover effects of counter-cyclical market regulation: Evidence from the 2008
ban on short sales (March).
2009
• Till, H. Has there been excessive speculation in the US oil futures markets? (November).
• Amenc, N., and S. Sender. A welcome European Commission consultation on the UCITS
depositary function, a hastily considered proposal (September).
• Sender, S. IAS 19: Penalising changes ahead (September).
• Amenc, N. Quelques réflexions sur la régulation de la gestion d'actifs (June).
• Giraud, J.-R. MiFID: One year on (May).
• Lioui, A. The undesirable effects of banning short sales (April).
• Gregoriou, G., and F.-S. Lhabitant. Madoff: A riot of red flags (January).
2008
• Amenc, N., and S. Sender. Assessing the European banking sector bailout plans (December).
• Amenc, N., and S. Sender. Les mesures de recapitalisation et de soutien à la liquidité
du secteur bancaire européen (December).
• Amenc, N., F. Ducoulombier, and P. Foulquier. Reactions to an EDHEC study on the
fair value controversy (December). With the EDHEC Financial Analysis and Accounting
Research Centre.
• Amenc, N., F. Ducoulombier, and P. Foulquier. Réactions après l’étude. Juste valeur ou
non : un débat mal posé (December). With the EDHEC Financial Analysis and Accounting
Research Centre.
• Amenc, N., and V. Le Sourd. Les performances de l’investissement socialement responsable
en France (December).
• Amenc, N., and V. Le Sourd. Socially responsible investment performance in France
(December).
• Amenc, N., B. Maffei, and H. Till. Les causes structurelles du troisième choc pétrolier
(November).
• Amenc, N., B. Maffei, and H. Till. Oil prices: The true role of speculation (November).
• Sender, S. Banking: Why does regulation alone not suffice? Why must governments
intervene? (November).
• Till, H. The oil markets: Let the data speak for itself (October).
• Amenc, N., F. Goltz, and V. Le Sourd. A comparison of fundamentally weighted indices:
Overview and performance analysis (March).
• Sender, S. QIS4: Significant improvements, but the main risk for life insurance is not
taken into account in the standard formula (February). With the EDHEC Financial Analysis
and Accounting Research Centre.
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