Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Dana,
Here is the draft of the response to the National Academies review of
the CCSP draft strategic plan. It is being circulated internally at
NOAA for edi ts/changes. pl ease forward me anythi ng you want in.
Jordan
- CCSP NRC REVIEW 2-25-03 draft.doc
OG~l395
CEQ 012298
0240_f_rwd6e003_ceq
=============== END ATIA CHMENT 1 ===== =============
page.2
CEQ 012299
DRAFT Agenda
Retreat on Revision of the CCSP Strategic Plan
24 and 26 February 2003
Monday,
24 February ChairlPresenters
1:00·3:15 Welcome, Objectives, and Key Decisions for James Mahoney (chair)
Revising the Plan CCSP staff
- Introduction/overview (30 min)
- General Q&A session (30 min)
- Overview of general comments (30 min)
- Proposed revised structure (15 min)
- Synthesis chapter strawman contents (30 min)
3:15 - 3:30 Coffee Break
3:30 - 5:30 Chapter Synopses: Jack Kaye (chair)
Response to Key Comments
(10 min overview, 5 min discussion each)
- Atmospheric Composition Dave Fahey
- Climate Variability and Change Jay Fein
- Water Cycle Rick Lawford
- Land Use/Land Cover Change Tom Loveland
- Carbon Cycle Roger Dahlman
., Ecosystems Steve Shafer
- Human Contributions and Responses Janet Gamble
- Modeling, Observations, and Chet Koblinsky
3:30-5:30
________ !?~taflnfo!!!!.'!!!9.'} ..§.Y..~_~~~~.~)}]_~.t~L_._ .._._.__.__
Principals Meeting
__ __
_....... .- .......-. ._._-_...-.----
James Mahoney (chair)
- Process for identifying issues to be developed
as Decision Support Resources
- Strategic Plan summary document
- Formulating response to key general
comments
5:30 Adiourn
CEQ 012300
Wednesday,
26 February ChairlPresenters
1:00 - 2:00 Overview of Day 1 Chapter Session Michael Slimak (chair)
and Principals' Decisions
- Key chapter developments/collaboration Jack Kaye
- Principals' guidance James Mahoney
- Other issues: synthesis and integration
2:00 - 2:30 Update on the NRC Report Bill Hohenstein (chair)
2:30 - 3:15 Decision Support Resources Susan Avery (chair)
3:15 - 3:30 Coffee Break
3:30 - 3:50 International Research and Cooperation Lou Brown (chair)
3:50 - 4:50 Breakout Groups:
Facilitating Chapter Linkages
- Group 1: Carbon Cycle, Land Use, Diane Wickland (chair)
Ecosystems, Water Cycle, and
Observations/Modeling/Data
- Group 2: Atmospheric Composition, Climate David Goodrich (chair)
Variability, Key Uncertainties, and
Observations/Modeling/Data
- Group 3: Decision Support, Outreach, and Caitlin Simpson (chair)
Human Dimensions
4:50-5:15 Process Issues Dave Dokken (chair)
-: Annotation of comments
- Underlying documents
- Credits
5:15-5:30 Closing Remarks James Mahoney
CEQ 012301
"General Comments" on CCSP Discussion Draft Strategic Plan that pertain to particular chapters
112 reviewers of the Discussion Draft Strategic Plan made 160 pages of what have been
categorized as "General Comments." Many of these comments refer to particular chapters or
combinations of chapters in the draft plan, and others are clearly relevant to particular
chapters. To facilitate appropriate consideration of these comments by chapter authors, this
document pulls from the General Comments file an annotated listing of review comments
that pertain to each chapter. Each entry lists reviewer and affiliation, page and line numbers
of the comment (using the version of the draft plan that is posted on the
www.climatescience.gov web site), and in most cases an indication of the content of the
comment. (Pagelline numbers are in parentheses)
Chapter I--Introduction
CEQ 012302
us CLIVAR SSC (139/34-1401l4) ChI, Ch4(applied modeling), Ch6, Acronyms: Correct
terminology/acronyms for climate variability phenomena-NAOINAM, SAM; Visbeck,
Columbia U (141/19-26) Same point as US CLIVAR SSC .
Warrilow, UK Dept. of Environment (142116-30) ChI, DS: From policy viewpoint, major
scientific challenge is assessing impacts at various stabilization levels, ref "dangerous"
interference-presents a formidabe array of complex and integrated scientific challenges
Winstanley, Illinois State water Survey
(I) (154/1-155/4) Ch.l and DS: Can argue that strategic goal should be to support
President's call to identify effective, least-cost strategies to stabilize GHG concentrations
and reduce scientific uncertainties. Then key policy Q is: What is the concentration level
to prevent dangerous human interference? CCSP could tackle scientific aspects of
defining "dangerous interference" and "level of GHG concentrations to be avoided," and
articulate role of science in value-laden risk assessment and risk-management framework.
Clarify roles of CCSP!Jnd NCCTI vis-a-vis mitigation, adaptation, and stabilization
(2) (158/9-13) Page 5 last paragraph focus on temp change is too narrow
(3) (158/28-34) Take statements from pp. 96 & 116 and add to guiding principles of whole
program on p. II
CEQ 012303
Rossow, NASA GISS (l 0311 3-105/19) Ch2, Ch 6, Ch7: Flawed conception of climate system
and water cycle" Must include the Energy Cycle. The climate is an Energy Engine;
fundamental energy exchange processes; Water Cycle can't be considered separately from
Energy Cycle. Joint energy and water cycle is at center of cliamte system's response to
forcing. All of the high-priority feedbacks in this draft are elements of the Energy and Water
Cycle.
Sarachik, U Washington
(1) (10617-30) Ch2: Uncertainty in the CCRI: Reducing uncertainty is a poor focus for a
science program, especially CCRI-Leads on a focus on the most uncertain and
intractable Qs, e.g., aerosols-To put these in 2-4 year timeframe is to set program up for
failure. Until policymakers can't specify how much certainty they need, unreasonable to
design a program around it.
(2) (107/29-108/22) Ch2, DS: CCRI priorities and Regional DS: Of the 3 components of
CCRI, only environment-society interactions research (D'S) can be expected to yield
results over next 4 years. Aerosols, climate feedbacks, and obs/monitoring are long-term
research items.But plan doesn't indicate a serious effort-NOAA RISA program does
this, but is poorly funded. IRI, NCEP, ENSO observing system, and RISAs make up
most of the components of a regional climate info system for seasonal-interannual
timescales.
Stouffer, NOAA-GFDL (136/1-7) Ch2 and Ch6: Confusion in use of term "climate
sensitivity"
Warrilow, UK Dept. of Environment (141/42-142/5, 142/12-15) Ch2, DS: Priority should be
given to improving understanding of climate system uncertainties, e.g., cloud-radiation
feedbacks, but overall there is an overemphasis on basic climate science and insufficient on
assessment of impacts and adaptation, and on socioeconomic aspects
Wielicki, NASA Langley (147/2-17) Ch2, Obs, Ch6, Ch7: Major omission: There is no
Energy Cycle in the document-more important than water cycle
CEQ 012304
NASA Earth System Modeling Framework Advisory Board (72/4-73/38) Ch 4, ObslModeling:
Need better discussion of need to strengthen US modeling capability; include/acknowledge
Earth System Modeling Framework, need for common modeling infrastructure
NIST (Semerjian) (74/6-77/39) Measurements, metrological framework: Plan neglects important
role of measurement standards, sensor calibration and degradation, and other aspects of
metrological framework in reducing uncertainties; need for strengthening chemical and
physical measurement and data infrastructure
NOAA-CMDL (80/17-28) Text overemphasizes the surface/troposphere temperature record
issue; WCC considered and didn't give much weight to it.
NOAA-CMDL (80/30-81/2)
(I) Obs-In gray box no mention of monitoring atmospheric COl' CH., CO-should
emphasize as crucial item under carbon cycle obs;
(2) Obs box would be better if redesigned to underscore cross-cutting issues.
(3) Modeling: In gray box no mention of inverse modeling.
(4) Emphasize importance of improving instruments and measurements.
Northwest Research Associates (81/15-85/11) Ch, 2, 4, 6, 7, 9, 12: Modeling and uncertainty:
Include probabilistic modeling methods (using Bayesian principles) to address reduction of
uncertainty
Pierrehumbert, U Chicago
(8811-4) Ch2. Ch3, Ch4, ChI 1: Climate and disease is so important should be in the CCRI
section
(87/15-29) Modeling: software engineering, computer resources
Porch, LANL (88/24-89/5) Supports climate obs emphasis but 2-4 years timescale misleading;
most useful uncertainty quantification to focus on in next 2.4 years
Randall, Rainforest Regeneration Institute (90/6-22) Ch2, Ch3, Ch4 (Modeling): Uncertainty:
making models more realistic not likely to reduce uncertainty in predictive output
Rock, U New Hampshire (102/26-30) Need airborne aerosol monitoring capability
Rossow, NASA GISS (103/21-40) -- There is no definition of what a climate obs system
INCLUDES.
Sarachik, U Washington (108/24-109/9) Obs and DS: Climate obs system can't be sustained
w/o being part of a system that delivers useful climate products. Until we have an
operational organization for climate, attempts to sustain obs system w/in research community
will fail. Must design and implement climate obs system as part of a useful product delivery
system.
Seidel, NOAA-ARL (123/29-40) Ch 1 and Obs: The surface-tropospheric temp record
controversy doesn't merit the kind of attention it gets in the plan; being manipulated by
politicians and media
Slingo, NCAS Centre for Global Atmospheric Modeling (128/38-129/13) Modeling: Need
fuller development on status of climate modeling needs and needed infrastructure and
strategies
Weller et al., U Alaska (143/34-45) Obs, Ch6: Should address polar regions more substantively
Wielicki, NASA Langley
(1).(147/2-17) Ch2, Obs, Ch6, Ch7: Major omission: There is no Energy Cycle in the
document-more important than water cycle
(2) (147/19-148/4) Major omissions:: Measuring surface sensible heat. latent heat, or
radiative fluxes; measuring top of atmosphere solar and thermal infrared radiative fluxes
CEQ 012305
(3) (148112-27) We are far short of building the climate obs system envisioned in the plan-
wlo significant new $ the plan will fail. Cannot test against against inadequate data.
Wiscombe, NASA Goddard (158/2-160/11) Obs: Importance of having a plan to develop
balloon platforms for earth Science-there is no planning for this in Fed agencies now-
balloons could make vital contribution at modest cost .
Winstanley, Illinois State Water Survey (156/14-35) Modeling: CCRI section on Applied
Climate Modeling is restricted to global modeling at 2 centers - too narrow and restrictive,
inconsistent wi President's position on regional scale modeling; 2-center strategy is too
narrow for a US plan-states should get more recognition from scientific and policy
perspectives
CEQ 012306
treatment of uncertainty - uncertainty reduction not necessary or sufficient for informed
policy making
Earth Institute, Columbia U. - Sachs (35/34-36/5) Learn from seasonal-interannual variability
forecastiung decsion support
Earth Institute, Columbia U. - Sachs (37/12-19) -Include poverty and sustainable development
Environment and Energy Study Institute (39/38-40/17) -- Incorporate mitigation scenarios with
technology and policy options
Fisher, Penn State U. (41/5-22) -- Uncertainty reduction vsi-a-vis action/decision; (41124-28)
National Assessment, don't ignore
Fisher, Penn State U. (41/38-42/6) - Evaluation of Decision Support tools is a research area in its
. own right
Green, Fraser Institute (43/4-12) -- IPCC storyline/sacenario approach flawed; (43122-28,32-35)
Reduce risk of CVC w/o regard to its origin
Hanson, LANL (46/2-13) -- Applied modeling: add sidebar on "projections" and
"predictability" here or in Ch. 6; (46/24-4712) Uncertainty: "Uncertainty reduction is not
the appropriate mission for the CCSP" Uncertainty reduction is a red herring vis-a-vis
decision support.
lRI, Zebiak and staff (49/15-50/41) (also to Human Dimensions) -- Focus on developing
capability to effectively use forecasts on seasonal-interannual timescales; Uncertainty:
annual-decadal fluctuations perhaps a more important uncertainty for decisionmakers than
uncertainty in long-term projections; human dimensions should focus on how insitutions and
decision systems use seasonal-interannual forecast info
Jay, OGI School of Sci. & Eng. (5114-14) -- Uncertainty/State of knowledge vis-a-vis action:
how much uncertainty reduction is needed? Most of science community thinks enough is
known now to justify policy changes
Jiusto, Clark U. (51/45-52/11) -- Failure to include National Assessment; opposes idea of
replacing National Assessment stakeholder process with poorly specified govt agency-run
processes;
Jiusto, Clark U. (51/45-52/11) -- Provide clearer indication of how DS will be accomplished-
needs more focus on climate change impacts, mitigation options, and costs/dangers of
inaction
Kempton, U. Delaware (53/1-15) -- Plan makes no sense w/o research on technologies and
decisions relevant to CO 2 emissions and reducing emissions
Kirschner, UCS (53/17-37) Plan fails to capture the state of the science and build on past
assessments, thus fails to pose priority Qs about cost of delay/inaction in response to climate
. change
Lashof, NRDC (54/22-35) Ch 1, DS -- Plan needs focus: Should be organized around UNFCCC
ultimate objective: What is required to stabilize GHGs at a level that prevents dangerous
anthro interference. Give priority to research that clarifies needed emissions budgets and
identify systems most vulnerable. Goal should be to iteratively improve decisionmaking
under uncertainty, not provide final answers to every Q before decisions are made
Lewinter (55/30-43) Uncertainty/action: Mitigation response should not await conclusive
research results .
MacCracken, LLNL (ret.)
(1) (59/22-28) -- Need to define the term "assessment"-used in varying ways thruout,
should clarify and edit terminology
CEQ 012307
(2) (59/30-60/25) -- National Assessment: Failure to acknowledge, misses opportunity to
learn from its findings about impacts and stakeholder interactions; implicit charge that
NA was "controversial" misrepresents the nature of discussion about the NA
(3) (60/27-32) -- Failure to address Global Change Research Act requirement of periodic
assessments
(4) (60/34-61/2) .- Preparation of assessments needs to be independent, as with IPCC, NA,
and NRC-essential for achieving credibility that this be done independent of agencies
(5) (61/33-62/2) -- DS needs to be about more than "if-then" Qs; as NA indicated, there are
many types of stakeholders needing varying types of info-important thing is 2-way
communication process
Millar, USDA (69/9-33) -- Increase participation of land management agencies for decision
support, integrated assesments, regional studies
Mote, JSlAO/SMA (71/9-13) Ch 3, 4,6, 10: Explicitly include bridge to seasonal forecasting
(1-20 year timescale),
Mote, JSIAO/SMA -- Modeling: Unsophisticated treatment of disagreement among models - use
IPCC discussion as model
National Park Service (John Dennis) (73/41-74/3) Regional/adaptation: NPS will need
significant regional/local data for adaptation
NASA Earth System Modeling Framework Advisory Board (72/4-73/3~) Ch 4, Obs-
Modeling: Need better discussion of need to strengthen US modeling capability;
include/acknowledge Earth System Modeling Framework, need for common modeling
infrastructure
Northwest Research Associates (81/15-85/11) Ch, 2, 4, 6, 7, 9, 12: Modeling and uncertainty:
Include probabilistic modeling methods (using Bayesian principles) to address reduction of
uncertainty
Organization Presidents letter to Mahoney (AGU, AMS, APS, et al.) (85/14-86/19) -- DS and
Ch 11: CCSP needs formal program of Vulnerability and Resilience Research as support for
societal response strategy - regional vulnerability assessments, preparedness
recommendations, vulnerability and resilience research
Pierrehumbert, U Chicago
(1) (8811-4) Ch2, Ch3, Ch4, Chi I: Climate and disease is so important should be in the
CCRI section
(2) (88/6-17) Ch4, Ch 10: Plan has large bias toward adaptation, fails to consider worst-case
impacts, whether adaptation feasible for natural ecosystems
Raps, independent scholar
(1) (91/17-24) National Assessment: Most glaring and pervasive omission from plan is NA,
its processes, products, and network, vis-a-vis Congressional mandate to continue such
democratic, participatory processes
(2) (91/26-35) DS and Ch 13: Should think in terms of "citizens," nott'stakeholder" groups.
(See Mike Sprague's Outreach panel comments)
(3) (91143-92/4) Failure to make use of IPCC as if it didn't exist-slap in the face to
scientists
Redmond, Western Regional Climate Center
(1) (92/8-94/44) Focus on regional/locallevel- focus on U.S. West, especially mountains, a
complex region for climate obs/processes/adaptation strategies/decision support
(2) (94/28-41) Regional decision support tools
Reilly, MIT
CEQ 012308
(1) (95/35-95/45) Decision support tools section reads like NSF, rather than more
empirically useful IA modles for real time DS
(2) (96/1-36) How will CCSP create confidence that a firewall exists to shield out people
who might want to manipulate results for political reasons? Previous Fed efforts to
analyze climate issues for DS have not established credibility as independent. Need a
new organization with mandate and responsibility to conduct such analyses.
(3) (96/38-9717) Applied modeling: Often the essential poicy Qs are not known until time
of decision is at hand, so need capability for an ongoing response to policy Qs, not 2-
years lead-time for scenarios. Need process to support national policy on mitigation.
(4) (97/7-22) For regional/local levels and resources mgmnt assessment capability, NA-type
regional assessments may be starting point, recognizing that this is in an R %D stage
because limits of regional modeling.
(5) (97/24-98/13) Probably need to create via legislation a new org that is (and is perceived
to be) independent of political bias and reports to Executive branch and Congress on
climate issues. (Longer-term research budgets would reside in the agencies.)
(6) (98/16-22) CCRI inconsistency between timeframes and tasks, in both science and DS
components is obvious. Impossible to imagine in 2-4 years. .
(7) (98/22-39) Continues fallacy of 2-step: (1) resolve uncertainty, then (2) make decisions;
much uncertainty may be unresolvable, climate response will be ongoing process of
management under uncertainty, as with fiscal and monetary policy.
(8) (98/41-99/15) Conecting science to DS and policy is the most important and key
innovative idea in the plan, but Plan fails to describe how this will happen-DS
discussion is weak, superficial, and vague.
(9) (99116-10117) The idea that sensitivity and "what if' scenarios are useful for
decisionmaking is wrong. This idea should be deleted from the document-indicative of
a failure to interact with people who are really making decisions, or to understand what is
really going on. Real decisions cannot be conditional. Useful info requires much more
than just a scenario analysis.
(10)(101/8-45) Plan describes research that would require a $2 billion plus-up to carry
out. ... Without a lot of new $, DS to make use of our limited knowledge now is most
important aspect to get some support for.
Rock, U New Hampshire (103/4-10) DS, ChI3: NA: Must include a direct and unbiased
treatment of the NA and accompanying regional assessments-s-otherwise an unprofessional,
unscientific, and unacceptable treatment of a fully valid and extensive outreach effort. How
can a document designed for scientists allow such a blatantly political re-write of the facts?
Sarachik, U Washington
(1) (106/32-107/13: Timescales for DS: Natural timescale for decisionmaking is one year-
CCRI and USGCRP focus on longer timescales is less relevant than focus on seasonal-
interannual-decadal timescales.
(2) (107/13-27) Regionality and OS: Except for Pres and Congress, most decisionmaking
takes place on smaller scales' need seasonal-decadal regional climate info and DS-
Document sadly deficinet on shorter timescales, ignoring much of what we have learned
in USGCRP and recommendations of NRC reports.
(3) (107/29-108/22) Ch2, DS: CCRI priorities and Regional DS: Of the 3 components of
CCRI, only environment-society interactions research (DS) can be expected to yield
results over next 4 years. Aerosols, climate feedbacks, and obs/monitoring are long-term
research items. But plan doesn't indicate a serious effort-NOAA RISAprogram does
this, but is poorly funded. IRI, NCEP, ENSO observing system, and RISAs make up
CEQ 012309
most of the components of a regional climate info system for seasonal-interannual
timescales.
(4) (108/24-109/9) Obs and DS: Climate obs system can't be sustained w/o being part of a
system that delivers useful climate products. Until we have an operational organization
for climate, attempts to sustain obs system w/in research community will fail. Must
design and implement climate obs system as part of a useful product delivery system.
(5)(109/15-36) Plan not well thought out on what a DS system informed by climate info
really means. Much of what needs to go into DS is operational. Feds don't have the
expertise to design this system. A DS system is/should be a Climate Service. Must
include integrated obs and modeling system, a carefully designed relationship to research
(don't cannibalize USGCRP), CCRI can demonstrate the operating concepts.
Sagarin, UC Santa Barbara (110/4 I- I 1I/41) DS, Ch 11: Include work on currently available
technologies to reduce GHGs and identify barriers to mitigation steps; include economic
analysis of current carbon-intensive system versus alternatives, including environmental,
health, and other costs; "no regrest" scenarios.
Saw ins & Freyr, Worldwatch institute
(I) (113/21-37, 114/4- I 2» Ideological bias in emphasizing costs and risks of mitigation
while ignoring costs of impacts and adaptation and risks of delaying mitigation-research
program should cover thouroughly, including worst-case scenarios.
(2) (113/43-114/2) Uncertainty: Uncertainty not a reason to delay mitigation and discussion
of policy options.
(3) (114/14-115/3) Recognize that energy policy is integral part of the discussion;
Administration is unjustifiably dismissive of nonconventional energy sources.
(4) (115/5-31) Uncertainty: Also focus on uncertainties about potential costs and
consequences of all policy options-e.g., sequestration is very expensive, cuurent focus
on sequestration is indefensible
Shea, East-West Center
(I) (125/1 0-30) Integration: One way of providing program-wide integration would be a
framework focused on establishment and support of a Climate Information System for the
U.S. and world-to provide scientists and decisionmakers with info on nature and
consequences of CVe. Supporting a transition to applications is extremely important
programmativ objective not yet well-articulated in plan.
(2) (125/32-126/28) Implications of providing info to support decisionmaking: need to
address continuum of timescales; address today's problems while planning for the future;
include both adaptation and mitigation; understand and explore decision making
processes; sustained, interactive dialogue with decisionmakers
(3) (126/30-45) DS and Ch 13: Significant progress that has already been made in
establishing sustained dialogue between scientists and decisionmakers. Acknowledge
and support the stakeholder networks, education and outreach programs that have been
initiated in context of both IPCC and NA
(4) (12711-13) DS and Ch13: Important role of trusted "knowledge brokers," e.g., NWS,
extension agents, resource mgmnt agencies, NGOs
Smith, L.
(l) (130/16-29) Uncertainty: Need criteria for degree of confidence needed for info inputs
to policymaking
(2) (130/31 13112) Assessments: Clarify role of assessments: plan skirts critical role of
assessments in policy-relevant research program; Global Change Research Act explicitly
requires
, CEQ 012310
(3) (131/4-14. 132/2-18) Regional consequences: Sustain and build on National Assessment
focus on regional vulnerabilities and consequences; provide sufficient technical and
institutional support for regional consequences research and assessment
Stouffer, NOAA-GFDL (135/33-41) There is much uncertainty-Focus on reducing
uncertainty, not on providing info to policymakers. IPCC and National Assessment already
do that-acknowledge them and discuss what to keep or change. Thruout there is lack of
recognition of past efforts, e.g., IPCC and NA
Struble (136/10-24) Govt officials cannot keep politics out and focus exclusively on the
science-need strong university involvement for credibility, avoid appearance that scientific
program is designed to give aura of credibility to Bush policy.
US CLIVAR SSC (139/34-140/14) ChI, Ch4(applied modeling), Ch6, Acronyms: Correct
terminology/acronyms for climate variability phenomena-NAOINAM, SAM; Visbeck,
Columbia U (141/19-26) Same point as US CLIVAR SSC
Warrilow, UK Dept. of Environment (142/16-30) Ch I, OS: From policy viewpoint, major
scientific challenge is assessing impacts at various stabilization levels, ref "dangerous"
interference-presents a formidabe array of complex and integrated scientific challenges
Warrilow, UK Dept. of Environment (141/42-142/5,'142/12-15) Ch2, DS: Priority should be
given to improving understanding of climate system uncertainties, e.g., cloud-radiation
feedbacks, but overall there is an overemphasis on basic climate science and insufficient on
assessment of impacts and adaptation, and on socioeconomic aspects
Webb, NOAA (142/33-143-31) General, CM, Ch6: Need for a climate forecasting service (and
supporting research) for medium-range climate projections, regional variations, routine
credible diagnosis of evolving climate conditions, likely trajectory over next decade, credible
attribution for CVC
Weller et al., U Alaska (144/2-11) Glaring omission of NA should be rectified
Western Governors' Association
(1) (144/24-38) DS, Ch6: Adaptation: Focus on policy alternatives that make sense for a
wide range of plausible climatic conditions; form partnerships with the states, e.g., ref
Ch. 6, question #5
(2) (144/40-146/22) Strongly concur with linking the strategy to the needs of policymakers;
governors recognize importance of good science to decisionmaking. Exarrtple: National
Drought Policy Commission
(3) (146/16-22) Regional focus: Invest ins cience programs in western states; West is highly
variable from watershed to watershed
(4) (146/24-43) Partnership with states (references to "regional" level do not specifically
mention state governments; emphasize adaptation, facilitate good governance thru
improved decisionmaking, include a regional/state focus
Wiener (148/1-149/19) State of KnowledgelIPCC; placed-based analysis: IPCC syntheses are
cautious, conservative, behind-the-curve, but solid "science court" statements. Findings
solidly established-don't focus on re-doing-burden of proof is on those who would
overturn; focus insead on regional analyses of specific problems that are case, place, sector,
and policy relevant
Wilbanks, ORNL (150/28-31) Key issue for policy is the impacts of different stabilization levels
on people and ecosystems
Winstanley, Illinois State Water Survey
(1) (151/42-153/45) Ambiguity and inconsistency r~/ extent to which decisionmakers or
scientists are driving the plan. Don't see scientific needs of policy makers identified
explicitly. Clear that CCRI has not designed research needs to support clearly articulated
10
CEQ 012311
policy decisions. Mechanisms for USGCRPmanagement include "scientific guidance"
but not "decision support" .- Research agenda appears to be set largely by scientists- .
e.g., focus on "improve understanding," "reduce uncertainty" --little expression of what
is required for decisionmaking - need to pin decisionmakers down on identifying their
needs.
(2) (15411-155/4) Ch.1 and DS: Can argue that strategic goal should be to support
President's call to identify effective, least-cost strategies to stabilize GHG concentrations
and reduce scientific uncertainties. Then key policy Q is: What is the concentration level
to prevent dangerous human interference? CCSP could tackle scientific aspects of
defining "dangerous interference" and "level of GHG concentrations to be avoided," and
articulate role of science in value-laden risk assessment and risk-management framework.
Clarify roles of CCSP and NCCTI vis-a-vis mitigation, adaptation, and stabilization.
(3) (156/14-35) Modeling: CCRI section on Applied Climate Modeling is restricted to
global modeling 3f 2 centers - too narrow and restrictive, inconsistent wi President's
position on regional scale modeling; 2-center strategy is too narrow for a US plan-
states should get more recognition from scientific and policy perspectives
(4) (156/37-157/28) P. 41 says CCRI will focus on needed institutional changes for science-
policy linkage-What is the strategy for doing this? Without strategies and priorities
being identified and related to resource needs, not clear what products can or should be
produced.
(5) (157/38-158/7) Should synthesize all relevant research results (CCSP, US non-Federal,
international) relevant to US interests, not just CCSP-supported research
Chapter 6--CVC
11
CEQ 012312
Kato, Hampton U. (52/21-43) Ch6 & Obs - global radiation balance, regional energy balance
Kuhn, Institute for Astronomy (53/39-54/19) -focus on solar variability
'MacCracken, LLNL (ret.) (61/4-12) Ch2, Ch6: Clearly distinguish issue of climate change
projection from climate variability prediction-there are fundamental differences in approach
McIntosh (64/43-65/40) -- Can't model projected climate w/o reliable paleo record
Mearns, NCAR (66/2-3) -- Climate impacts: Needs detailed/explicit chapter/section
Meyer (66/33-67/2) -- Earth mantle energy flux
Millar, USDA (67/22-68/2) -- Paleoclimate and abrupt climate change
Mote, JSIAO/SMA (71/9-13) Ch 3,4,6, 10: Explicitly include bridge to seasonal forecasting
(1-20 year timescale)
Northwest Research Associates (81/15-85/11) Ch, 2, 4, 6, 7, 9,12: Modeling and uncertainty:
Include probabilistic modeling methods (using Bayesian principles) to address reduction of
uncertainty
Osmond, Columbia U (86/22-8712) -- Plan neglects importance of experimental approach to
climate science
Pierrehumbert, U Chicago (87/5-13) Ch6: Paleoclimate modeling and analysis needs more
emphasis
Randall, Rainforest Regeneration Institute (90/6-22) Ch2, Ch3, Ch4 (Modeling): Uncertainty:
making models more realistic not likely to reduce uncertainty in predictive output
Rossow, NASA GISS (103/13-105/19) Ch2, Ch 6, Ch7: Flawed conception of climate system
and water cycle" Must include the Energy Cycle. The climate is an Energy Engine;
fundamental energy exchange processes; Water Cycle can't be considered separately from
Energy Cycle. Joint energy and water cycle is at center of cliamte system's response to
forcing. All of the high-priority feedbacks in this draft are elements of the Energy and Water
Cycle.
Severinghaus, Scripps Institute (123143-124/38) Abrupt climate change
Stouffer, NOAA-GFDL (136/1-7) Ch2 and Ch6: Confusion in use of term "climate
sensitivity"
US CLIVAR SSC (139/34-140/14) ChI, Ch4(applied modeling), Ch6, Acronyms: Correct
terminology/acronyms for climate variability phenomena-NAOINAM, SAM; Visbeck,
Columbia U (141/19-26) Same point as US CLIVAR SSC
Webb, NOAA (142/33-143-31) General, Ch4, Ch6: Need for a climate forecasting service (and
supporting research) for medium-range climate projections, regional variations, routine
credible diagnosis of evolving climate conditions, likely trajectory over next decade, credible
attribution for CVC
Weller et al., U Alaska (143/34-45) Obs, Ch6: Should address polar regions more substantively
Western Governors' Association (144/24-38) DS, Ch6: Adaptation: Focus on policy
alternatives that make sense for a wide range of plausible climatic conditions; form
partnerships with the states, e.g., ref Ch. 6, question #5
Wielicki, NASA Langley (14712-17) Ch2, Obs, Ch6, Ch7: Major omission: There is no
Energy Cycle in the document-more important than water cycle
12
CEQ 012313
I
,
,
,
,
f
I
,I
Northwest Research Associates (81/15-85/11) Ch, 2, 4, 6, 7, 9,12: Modeling and uncertainty:
Include probabilistic modeling methods (using Bayesian principles) to address reduction of
uncertainty
Rossow, NASA GISS (103/13-105/19) Ch2, Ch 6, Ch7: Flawed conception of climate system
and water cycle" Must include the Energy Cycle. The climate is an Energy Engine;
fundamental energy exchange processes; Water Cycle can't be considered separately from
Energy Cycle. Joint energy and water cycle is at center of cliamte system's response to
forcing. All of the high-priority feedbacks in this draft are elements of the Energy and Water
Cycle.
Titus, EPA (138/1-10) General & Ch.I, 7, 10, 11: Should focus less on IPCC WGI-type Qs,
more on implications of climate change. Effects of climate change are spread across 3
chapters-ecosystems, water cycle, human dimensions. Strategic focus on implications of
climate change would put these issues together. Impacts research is currently least focused
and most in need of strategic plan. Better organization would be to start with the 5 questions
in the Intro (ppA-5) and consider impacts issues coherently.
USGCRP Global Water Cycle SSG (140/17-141/16) Ch7: Issues that should be dealt with in
Water Cycle chapter
Wielicki, NASA Langley (14712-17) Ch2, Obs, Ch6, Ch7: Major omission: There is no
Energy Cycle in the document-more important than water cycle
Winstanley, Illinois State Water Survey (158/22-26) Include focus on groundwater
Earth Institute, Columbia U. - Sachs (35/12-32) -- Carbon sequestration and links to tech
initiative
Hanson, ORNL (47/29-3) Needs more emphasis on soil carbon
Northwest Research Associates (81/15-85/1 I) Ch, 2, 4, 6, 7, 9, 12: Modeling and uncertainty:
Include probabilistic modeling methods (using Bayesian principles) to address reduction of
uncertainty
Rock, U New Hampshire (102/18 724) Ch5,9, 10: Linkage issue: Impact of poor air quality on
carbon cycle and ecosystems
Winstanley, Illinois State Water Survey (158/15-20) Should address global sources/sinks of
carbon, not just N. America. Water cycle doesn't just focus on N. America.
Chapter 10--Ecosystems
Jay, OGI School of Sci. & Eng. (51/30-36) Need focus on global change in estuaries and coastal
waters, impact on primary production
Millar, USDA (68/4-20) -- incorporate paleoecology lesson on importance of
threshholdlnonlinear change
Mote, JSIAO/SMA (71/9-13) To Ch 3, 4,6, 10: Explicitly include bridge to seasonal
forecasting (1-20 year timescale)
13
CEQ 012314
Pierrehurnbert, U Chicago (88/6-17) Ch4, Ch 10: Plan has large bias toward adaptation, fails to
consider worst-case impacts, whether adaptation feasible for natural ecosystems
Randall, Rainforest Regeneration Institute (8917-90/4) Ch2, ChlO: Physical climatology mostly
well-established (IPCC WG 1), but ecosystem responses and vulnerabilities not as well-
understood (IPCC WG2}-So the Plan is unbalanced toward overemphasizing reduction of
WG l-type uncertainty rather than the much greater WG2-type uncertainties
Rock, U New Hampshire (102/18-24) ChS.9, 10: Linkage issue: Impact of poor air quality on
carbon cycle and ecosystems
Soil Science, Glasener (133/26-29) Ch5, ChlO: Should include Np, a major GHG and driving
force; (134/6-9) Process models need to be developed at farm and field scale
Thompson, NOAA (136/27-45) Very terrestrial-centric-Little attention to oceans as carbon sink
or to fisheries and marine ecosystems; Usage of "ecosystem" and "environment"
terminology
Titus, EPA (138/1-10) General & cn.i, 7, 10, 11: Should focus less on IPCC WGI-type Qs,
more on implications of climate change. Effects of climate change are spread across 3
chapters-ecosystems, water cycle, human dimensions. Strategic focus on implications of
climate change would put these issues together. Impacts research is currently least focused
and most in need of strategic plan. Better organization would be to start with the 5 questions
in the Intro (ppA-5) and consider impacts issues coherently.
IRI, Zebiak and staff (49/15-50/41) (also to Decision Support) -- Focus on developing capability
to effectively use forecasts on seasonal-interannual timescales; Uncertainty: annual-decadal
fluctuations perhaps a more important uncertainty for decisionmakers than uncertainty in
long-term projections; human dimensions should focus on how insitutions and decision
systems use seasonal-interannual forecast info
Magaard/Grossman (62/12-36) -- Need research on the full arena of change, technological and
socioeconomic
Morehouse, U. Arizona (70/31-37) Social science component too narrow for usable science
program
Organization Presidents letter to Mahoney (AGU, AMS, APS, et al.) (85/14-86/19) -- Ch 4 and
Ch 11: CCSP needs formal program of Vulnerability and Resilience Research as support for
societal response strategy - regional vulnerability assessments, preparedness
recommendations, vulnerability and resilience research
Pierrehumbert, U Chicago (88/1-4) Ch2, Ch3, Ch4, Ch 11: Climate and disease is so important
should be in the CCRI section
Rock, U New Hampshire (102/32-37) ChI 1, 13: Linkage issue: Communication of key HD
findingss to public and policymakers an essential component ofHD, don't assume will be
handled by Outreach ChI3.
Sagarin, UC Santa Barbara (110/41-111141) DS, Chl1: Include work on currently available
technologies to reduce GHGs and identify barriers to mitigation steps; include economic
analysis of current carbon-intensive system versus alternatives, including environmental,
health, and other costs; "no regrest" scenarios.
Shea, East-West Center (128/23-25) Integration, Ch 11: More fully integrate HD in all chapters
Soil Science, Glasener (133/38-40) Ch 11: Importance of population growth
Titus, EPA (138/1-10) General & Ch.l , 7,10,11: Should focus less on IPCC WGI-type Qs,
more on implications of climate change. Effects of climate change are spread across 3
'>
14
CEQ 012315
chapters-ecosystems, water cycle, human dimensions. Strategic focus on implications of
climate change would put these issues together. Impacts research is currently least focused
and most in need of strategic plan. Better organization would be to start with the 5 questions
in the Intro (ppA-5) and consider impacts issues coherently.
Wilk, Indiana U (150/39-151/39) No reference to NRC report on Wnvironmentally Significant
Consumption-an issue of great importance-references to "human driving forces" and
"living standards" obscure the state of knowledge--thousands of social scientists worldwide
are studying consumer culture-how can you leave social dynamics of consumption out of
plan?-Issue is sustainable consumption
Chapter 14--Intemational
15
CEQ 012316
Busalacchi, U. Maryland (21/35-22/9)-Integration/management - This draft suggests problem
not solved
Schoeberl, NASA (116/10-19) How will the plan incorporate "updates?"
Wilbanks,ORNL (150/33-36) Clarify relationship of CCSP to CCTP; Showing links on an org
chart isn't sufficient
Winstanley, Illinois State Water Survey (156/4-12) Clarify how CCRI and USGCRP are
directed, by whom, and how
16
CEQ 012317
CHAPTER 5 - ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION
Question 1: What are the climate-relevant chemical and radiative
properties, and spatial and temporal distributions, of human-caused
and naturally occurring aerosols?
Driven by the need to have a predictive understandingof the relationship between the
emission sources of these gases and their global distributions and radiative forcing,
several question face the research community. These include:
• What are global anthropogenic and natural (biospheric - see Chapter 10) sources
of C1-4 and N 20?
• What are the causes of the observed large variations in their growth rate?
• What are the global anthropogenic and natural sources (both biogenic and
lightning-related) of nitrogen oxides?
• What are the trends in mid-tropospheric ozone, particularly in the Northern
Hemisphere, and how well can the variations be attributed to causes?
•. What water vapor observations will best test and improve the understanding of the
water vapor feedback?
CEQ 012318
ILLUSTRATIVE RESEARCH QUESTIONS - CH7(Q4), CH8(Q5), CHIO(Ql),
CHll(Ql, Q4)
• What are the chemical exposures experienced by food-producing areas that are in
proximity to large urban areas?
• How do the primary and secondary pollutants from the world's megacities
contribute to global atmospheric composition?
• What are, and what contributes to, North American "background" levels of air
quality-that is, what levels of pollution are beyond national control?
Question 4: What are the time scale and other characteristics of the
recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer in response to declining
abundances of ozone-depleting gases and increasing abundances of
greenhouse gases?
Question 5: What are the couplings among climate change, air pollution,
and ozone layer depletion, which were once considered as separate issues?
CEQ 012319
CHAPTER 6 - CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE
CEQ 012320
Question 3. What is the likelihood of climate-induced changes that are
significantly more abrupt than expected, such as the collapse of the
thermohaline circulation or rapid melting of the major ice sheets?
CEQ 012321
• What are the regions and sectors for which improved climate information is most
important, and who are the decisionmakers for whom such information would be
most useful?
• Whattypes of new climate information would provide the greatest potential for
benefits, and what specific types of climate information would be most useful in
formulating adaptive management strategies?
• Whatare the most likely vulnerabilities and opportunities arising from climate
variability and potentialfuture climate changes, and what climate indicators
would be of the most benefit in, assessing climate vulnerability and resilience in
sectorssuch as agriculture, water, and other environmental resources, and for
assessing other potential societal impacts (positive and negative), including
human health? With what frequency and timing do these indicators need to be
provided in order to allow maximum adaptive response to climate-induced
change?
• Whatare potential entry points and barriersto the use of climate information, and
how can access to and understanding of climate information and predictionsbe
accelerated and simplified to realize their greatest value to the scientific
community, public, and decisionmakers?
.j
."
-.',
CEQ 012322
CHAPTER 7 - WATER CYCLE
Question 1: To what extent does the water cycle vary and change with
time, and what are the internal mechanisms and external forcing
factors, including human activities, responsible for variability and
change?
CEQ 012323
Question 3: What are the key uncertainties in seasonal to interannual
predictions and long-term projections of water cycle variables, and
what improvements are needed in global and regional models to reduce
these uncertainties?
ILLUSTRATIVE RESEARCH QUESTIONS - CH3(Q2), CH12(Q2),CH6(Q2)
• For different model resolutions, how can key water cycle processes be better
simulated in current climate models, in order to enhance the capability of
producing more accurate seasonal to interannual predictionsof watercycle
variables?
• How can the representation of water cycle processes in climatechange models be
improved to reduce uncertainties in climate change projections for hydrologic
variables?
• What are the critical hydrological and atmospheric factors that are present in
major flood and drought events that can be isolated, quantified, and incorporated
into water cycle prediction methodologies?
• To what extent will the seasonality, intensity, and variability of high latitude
freshwater fluxes (evapotranspiration, runoff) and stores (soil moisture,
permafrost) change as a result of climate warming?
• How can we best characterize the uncertainty in the prediction of water cycle
variables and effectively communicate this uncertainty to water resource
managers?
Question 4: How do the water cycle and its variability affect the
availability and quality of water supplied for human consumption,
economic activity, agriculture, and natural ecosystems; and how do its
interactions and variability affect sediment and nutrient transports, and
the movement of toxic chemicals and other biogeochemical substances?
CEQ 012324
research be used to inform policy and water resource management
decision processes?
CEQ 012325
CHAPTER 8 - LAND USEILAND COVER CHANGE
Question I: What are the primary drivers of land use and land cover
change?
ILLUSTRATIVE RESEARCH QUESTIONS - CH4(Ql), CH6(Q4), CH7(Q4),
CH9(Q4)
• How does the historical developmentand spread of land uses reveal the various
events and trends that shaped its expansion at different points inthe past?
• Why and how have land use and land management systems (e.g., agriculture)
spread historically?
• How have the driving forces of change affected the rates and patterns of historical
and contemporary change at different (i.e, local, regional, and global) scales?
• How, and to what extent, do extreme events (e.g., natural hazards, public health
emergencies, and war) affect land use and land cover change?
• How will environmental, institutional, political, technological, demographic, and
economic processes determine the temporal and spatial distribution of land use
and land cover over the next 50 years?
CEQ 012326
Question 3: What advances are required to allow for the projection of
land use and land cover patterns and characteristics 10-50 years into
the future?
Question 5: What are the combined effects of climate and land use and
land cover change and what are the potential feedbacks?
ILLUSTRATIVE RESEARCH QUESTIONS - ~H4(Q2), CH6(Ql),
CH7(Ql,Q2,Q5), CHIO(Ql)
• How will the combined effects of land use and climate change affect agriculture,
aquatic ecosystems, rangeland, and forest extent and productivity, and what are
the implications for land management and economics?
• How does the combined stress of climate and land use change affect our ability to
mitigate and manage greenhouse gases?
• What is the impact of future changes in land use and land cover on water supply
and quality, considering climate-induced changes in the patterns and
characteristics of water resources (research will be undertaken with the Water
Cycle team)?
• Using focused case studies, how can landholders, land managers, and
decisionmakers formulate land use and land management decisions and practices
at various scales in light of cl imate change?
CEQ 012327
CHAPTER 9 - CARBON CYCLE
Question 4: What are the effects of past, present, and future land use
change and resource management practices on carbon sources and
sinks?
CEQ 012328
ILLUSTRATIVE RESEARCH QUESTIONS - CH4(Ql,Q4), CH8(Ql,Q2),
CHll(Ql)
4' What are the roles of past and current land use and management in terrestrial
carbon sources and sinks at local to continental scales?
• How do resource management practices and likely future changes in management
affect carbon that is stored in terrestrial ecosystems and durable products?
• How do social, political, and economic forces influence human decisions
regarding land use and resource management, and how might changes in these
forces affect the carbon cycle?
Question 6: How will the Earth system, and its different components,
respond to various options being considered by society for managing
carbon in the environment, and what scientific information is needed
for evaluating these options?
CEQ 012329
.;
CHAPTERI0-ECO~YSTEMS
CEQ 012330
Question 3: What are the options for sustaining and improving
ecosystem goods and services valued by societies, given projected global
changes?
CEQ 012331
CHAPTER 11 - HUMAN CONTRIBUTIONS AND RESPONSES TO
ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE
Technological change
• What induces technological innovation and adoption of new technologies?
• What affects the transfer of technology from country to country?
• What can be predicted about the future of energy technologies, carbon
sequestration options, and agricultural productivity?
• How do food production decisions (including land use, technology choice, and
exposure to chemicals) affect environmental change?
CEQ 012332
Question 2: What are the current and potential future impacts of global
environmental variability and change on human welfare, what factors
influence the capacity of human societies to respond to change, and how
can resilience be increased and vulnerability reduced?
CEQ 012333
ILLUSTRATIVE RESEARCH QUESTIONS - CH4(Q2)
• What are the impacts of changes in water quantity and quality, temperature,
ecosystems, land use, and climate on infectious disease, and can the capacity for
prevention, early detection, and effective response be improved?
• What are the impacts of atmospheric and climatic changes on the health effects
associated with ambient air quality and UV radiation?
• What are the health effects and effective response strategies associated with
temperature extremes and with extreme weather events?
• What are the best methods for assessing climate-related health impacts and for
developing useful tools and information products to enhance public health?
• What effects will new technologies for global change mitigation and adaptation
have on human health?
CEQ 012334
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CEQ 012701
THE U.S. CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM:
VISION, MISSION, OBJECTIVES, STRATEGIES, AND PRIORITIES
DEFINITION of Climate Change ( Formatted: Font: No_t_lta_I_IC_ _--'
C,limate change is seasonal-to-millennium natural and anthropogenic variations of Earth's ( Fonnatted: Font: Not Itahc
atmosphere. ecosystems, fresh water. ice, oceans, and snow. It also includes human systems.
Climate and climate variability play. important roles in shaping the environment, natural Deleted: san
resources, infrastructure, the economy, and other important aspects of our way of life. !The Deleted: Naturalchmate varrabihtv, the
risk of human-induced changes In chmete
previous sentence is deleted because "natural climate variabilitv" (e,g .. El1\ino) does have and related environmental SYStems, and
"substantial, environmental, economic. and societal consequences".) Eublic and private sector potentialadaptationand murgaucn
opllons may have substantial
decision makers will need reliable and readily understood information about climate change to environmental, econcmrc,and socretal
rnake scientifically informed decisions. The U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) will consequences
ensurc;scientific,understanding of the Earth's climate and climate variations to benefit present Deleted: Thc full spectrumof p
and future generations.. Deleted: comparethe pctennal
Implications of different strategies and
actions and
MISSION and OBJECTIVES of the CCSP
Deleted: envurons a world where
IMission nnd Objectives should be separated. Re: objectives 01' goals, what is the legacy of Deleted: advance, support stewardship
of climate sensitive resources to benefit
the program in 10 yenrs when a new plan is developed? Is a c1imnte observing system a present and futuregenerations Thts WIll
(egan..? Is climnte modeling a legacv?1 require more than an Improved scrennfle
Deleted: environment andhow It IS
changing, but also development of new
Tile CCSP wlllfacllitate observation, understanding, prediction, and assessment oftrends ill capabrhues for assessment and
the Eartlt's global environment, focusing on natural and human-induced climate variation mterpretauen of SCientific information
The CCSP Will work m close partnership
and change, and the resulting implications for environmental and human systems. Withthe Internationalscience ccmmutnty,
pobcymakers, and pubhe and private
sector managers
The CCSP will be guided by a comprehensive set of scientific objectives:
Deleted: to achieve thrs VISiOn It Will
• Characterize the Earth's past and present climate, including its natural variability routinely providereliable mformanon
• Quantify the forces acting to bring about changes in the Earth system through active commumcaucns
mecharusms With these and other
• Determine how the climate and Earth systems may change in the future at a wide range of Interested parues
spatial- and time-scales, including the potential for abrupt change
• Understand the sensitivity and adaptability of different natural and managed systems to
multiple, interacting changes in climate and associated environmental systems
[The deleted bullet is a CCTP function, and should not absorb "science" money.] Deleted: <ii>Rescarch and develop
resources thai WIll enable society to
These objectives focus on reducing unc-ertainties and closing gaps in scientific knowledge that evaluate technologresand other
are central to a wide range of public and private sector interests. By building on the already approaches for managmg risks and
opporturuues from changes In the Earth
considerable knowledge and deepening understanding of these issues, the program will system~
substantially improve capacity to deliver timely data and information essential for decision
CEQ 012702
making.Developing this capacity requires a diverse, multi-faceted research program that focuses
on the Earth's major environmental systems, their natural dynamics, and their interactions with
society.
Mission
CCSP will add silwificant integrative value to the individual Earth climate science missions of
the Federal agencies and their national and international panners.
• facilitate coordination ofinterdiscinlinarv research. technology and infrastructure ( fQrmatted: Bullets andNumben!lg
development, and management ora diverse portfolio of projects
• facilitate expansion of knowledge for prediction ~tnd forecast of short-ternl and 10mHeml
climate variations
• identitV national budaet priorities to improve understanding of short-term and lonll-term
climate variations and their interactions with society
• provide advice on preservation of healthy ecosystems
enhancc publicawareness of climate
Goals
Implement a long-term integrated and sustai:1cd global Earth observing system for detection of
climate variations and for the testing of climate models by the end of the decade.
create data products (= observations, data management, communication. models) ( Formatted: Bullets andNumbering
MANAGEMENTofilieCCSP
The CCSP is responsible for producing researchthat will support informed decisions on climate-
related resource stewardship-fCCT? does encr~'Y policy]. The CCSP provides leadership for the [ Deleted: and energy policy
large public investment that addresses this issue on behalf of the United States. The CCSP
CEQ 012703
incorporates the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP)and the Climate Change
Research Initiative (CCRI).
The USGCRP began as an interagency initiative in 1989,and was codified in the 1990 Global
Change Research Act (Public Law 101-606).The USGCRP has operated continuously since
1989, and by January 2003 had provided over $20 billion of support for global climate change
research and monitoring-the largest such investment of public resources on this topic in the
world. In June 2001 President Bush created the CCRI to increase the focus of U.S. sponsored
research on key scientificuncertainties that mightbe reduced in the near term (i.e., within,5 Deleted: 210
The CCSP employs strategies for accomplishingits mission and objectives that contribute
substantially to understanding of global climate change and support national and international
scientific and stakeholdercommunities. The strategies employed include:
Fundamental. long-term research an a broad range ofglobal change issues. Over the
past 15 years the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) element of the CCSP
has provided planning and sponsorship of the world's most extensive program of
scientific research, monitoring, data management, and assessment for climate change
analyses. The results ofthis program include the first ever global characterization of
many aspects of the Earth's environment; the development of decadal-scale global
observations ofa limited number of environmentally importantvariables; detailed
knowledge ofa variety of processes important in the functioning of the Earth system;the
development ofEI Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts and derived products
used in management, planning, and emergency preparedness; and significant
improvement in the capability of models used to project the future evolution of the Earth
system, as evidenced by improvements in their ability to simulatevariability in the
present and recent past. USGCRP accomplishments are exemplified by large numbers of
peer reviewed scientific papers and other reports; unique data archives prepared with
USGCRP sponsorship; active involvementof US-based scientists in the work of
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) and other assessment activities; and
increased public awareness of issues associated with climate variability and change. The
CEQ 012704
greatest percentage of future CCSP budgets (incorporatingboth USGCRP and CCRI
elements) will be devoted to continuing this essential investment in basi<;,scientific Deleted: the
kno\\<ledge,; facilitating the discovery ofthe unexpectedand advancing the frontiersof Deleted: community
research.
Since the early years of the USGCRPan expanded programof global observations has
been developed to characterize climatevariability and changeon a global and regional
basis. These observations have included paleoclimatestudies interpretingclimate
parameters over thousands of years, satellite remote sensing systems operated by NASA
and NOAA, and numerous in situ observations at the terrestrialsurface (including the
polar regions), in the atmosphere, and in the surface and deep oceans. The 'suite of
available observations includes many types of long-terrn monitoring programs, as well as
a large number of limited duration measurements obtained during research programs.
Satellite observations made under the USGCRP have provided the first-ever continuous
(up to a decade) data sets about the global distribution of important environmental
parameters and their spatial and temporal variability.
Since the earliest years of the USGCRP and its counterparts around the world, the use of
available scientific information to address key questions about changes in climate and
related systems has continuously grown in importance. The available scientific record has
already been used for many years to addressfundamental questionsof detection and
attribution of anthropogenic climate change. Currently, at least three complementary
CEQ 012705
considerationscreate significant new demands for the CCSP to improve science-based
decision supportprocessesand tools to address possible response strategies:
(1) The economic costs of many proposed response options are widely understood to be
very large.This creates a demand to reduce uncertainty in the underlying science as
much as possible, especially in understanding the sensitivity of the climate system to
future forcing and improving projections of impacts in climateand related
environmental and socio-economicsystemsthat may develop over periods of decades
or longer.
(2) The needs of science-based detection and attribution analyses have become more
demanding in order to support differential evaluations of variousproposed mitigation
and adaptation strategies. For example, is the underlyingsciencesufficiently robustto
discriminatebetweenthe potential implications of differentmitigation strategies that
may have widely different economicimpacts?
(3) Increasingly, decision making aboutregional and sectoral responses to climate
variability and change holds the greatestchallenges and opportunities for emerging
decision supportresources. Decision making woulet. benefitfrom increased ( Deleted: can
understanding of the potential impacts of changes in climate on related ecosystems
and dimensions of human societies, and from improved information on options for
adaptation.
The CCSP will respond to these needs by focusing efforts to develop resources and
stakeholder interactions, It will also developnew methods, models, and other tools that Deleted: atthenational level and In a
Wide range or regional and sectoral
facilitate economic analysis, decision makingunder uncertainty, and integration and contexts
interpretation of information from the natural and social sciences in particular decision
contexts [Theseactivities are too ambitious to accomplish in the next 10vears.],
Global climate change is complex and often subject to disputed interpretations even
among well-respected scientists. The economicand policy dimensions of the issue often
give rise to even greater disputes among individualswith differentpolicy views. Virtually
everyone involved with climate change issues is aware of frequentout-of-context
disputes that can be characterized as "public debate by headlines"; selective citations
from the scientificliterature; advocacy-oriented quotations from interested persons (often
citing their own expertise); and other debatingtactics. As an essential part ofits mission,
the CCSP undertakes the significant responsibility of enhancingthe quality of debate by
stressing openness and transparency in its findings and reports.
CCSP will employ at least four methodsto insure the trustworthiness of its reported
findings: (I) use of structured analyses(usually question-based) for CCSP scientific
synthesis, assessment, and projection reports;(2) use of transparent methodologies which
openly report all key assumptions, methods, uncertainties, and data used in developing
analyses; (3) continuous use of web-basedand other forms of information dissemination
so that all CCSP information is freely availableto all interested users; and (4) frequent
use of "draft for comment" methods to seek external review beforecompletion of each
key document. CCSP will also continueto urge all of its sponsored researchers to seek
publication of their findings in the peer reviewedscientific literature.
CEQ 012706
Some of these credibility-enhancing steps have already been introduced through the
public dissemination and review of the CCSP Discussion Draft Strategic Plan in
November 2002, the open public workshops with 1,300 participants in December2002,
the subsequentpublic comment period, and the invited reviewby a committee of the
National Research Council.
5. Maintaining continuous dialog with tbe domestic and international scientific and
stakeholder communities, supplemented by preparation of public education resource
materials to convey state-of-the-science Information.
CEQ 012707
THE U.S. CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM:
VISION, MISSION, OBJECTIVES, STRATEGIES, AND PRIORITIES
Tlte creation and e.1:pansion of knowledge tOfllable informed stewardship ofptlr natrlral Deleted: £
environmellt {"climate sensitive resources" begs tlte question that is the object oUllis Deleted: climate lenslti.,e resources
program. which is to leam abOlltthe existence (Ind extent ofsue" sensith·ities. The term und
lucks definition at tlte outset - that's wIn' we have the program{ through research and
partnerships to benefit present andfuture generations
Climateplays an important role in shaping the environment, natural resources, infrastructure, the
economy, and other important aspects of our way of life, Natural climate variability, the risk of
human-induced changes in climate and relatedenvironmental systems,and potential adaptation
and mitigation options may have substantial environmental, economic,and societal
consequences. The full spectrum ofpublic and private sector decision makers will,seck reliable ( Deleted: need
and readily understood information to comparethe potential implications of different strategies
and actions and make scientifically informed decisions. The U.S. ClimateChange Science
Program (CCSP) envisions a world where scientific advances support stewardship of,pur nalural ( Deleted: c1lmalc $cnsllive resouren=J
environment to benefit presentand future generations. This will require more than an improved
scientifie understandingof the Earth's environment and how it is changing, but also development
of new capabilities forassessmentand interpretation of scientific information. The CCSP will
work in close partnershipwith the international science community, policyrnakers, and public
and private sector managers to achieve this vision, It will routinely providereliable information
through active communications mechanisms with these and other interested parties.
The CCSP will facilitate observation, understanding, and {"predictioll" is subsumed in ( Deleted: ,,, "diction,
"assessment" ami I do not want to risk overpromising on predictive capllcitv per u-
cillsiderillg we can't predict weather tell days outlassessment oftrends ill the Earth's global
environment, focusing on natural and human-induced climate variation and change, and the
resulting implications for environmental and human systems.
CEQ 012708
Theseobjectives focus on reducing uncertainties and closing gaps in scientific knowledgethat
arecentral to a wide rangeof public and private sector interests. By building on the already
considerable knowledgeand deepening understanding of these issues, the program will
substantially improve capacityto deliver timely data and information essential for decision
making. Developing this capacity requires a diverse, multi-faceted research program that focuses
on the Earth's major environmental systems, their natural dynamics, and their interactions with
society.
The CCSP is responsiblefor producing research that will support informed decisions on. Deleted: chrnate-related resource
stewardship of our natural environment..The CCSP provides leadership for the large public Deleted: and energypohcy
investment that addressesthis issue on behalfof the United States. The CCSP incorporates the
U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and the Climate ChangeResearch Initiative
(CCRI).
The USGCRP began as an interagency initiatlve in 1989, and was codified in the 1990 Global
Change Research Act (Public Law 101-606). The USGCRP has operatedcontinuously since
1989, and by January 2003 had provided over $20 billion of support for global climate change
research and monitoring-the largest such investment of public resources on this topic in the
world. In June 200I PresidentBush created the CCRI to increase the focus of U.S. sponsored
research on key scientific uncertainties that might be reduced in the near term (i. e., within 2 to 5
years), [I believe that the role ot the CCTP is to evaluate potential response strategies based Deleted: and 10 develop seicnuflc
syntheses thatwould factluate public
upon their assessment of elllergint!. energy and sequestration technologies, calibrating such understanding of various response
strateg,\' development to the CCSP scientific research products - but il is not in the CCSP strategies relatedto global chmate
change
mission per sc because it is inlhe CCTP mission].
In February 2002 President Bush created a new,cabinet level management structure (see Figure
I) to oversee the ongoing public investmentsin climate change scienceand technology, witha
combined annual budget exceeding $3 billion. As part of the President's managementstructure,
the Climate Change Science Program providesjoint management of the USGCRP and the CCRI.
Ongoingmanagement of the CCSP is the responsibility of a 13-member interagency steering
committee that includesa senior representativeof each of the 13 agenciesparticipating in the
program. The CCSP reports to the Interagency Working Group on Climate Change Scienceand
Technologythat functions as a "Board of Directors"with supervisory oversightof both the
scienceand technology programs.The Interagency Working Group membership includes deputy
secretary and deputy administrator level representatives of the relevantcabinetdepartments and
independent agencies, and high level representatives ofOMB, CEQ and OSTP.The Interagency
Working Group meets regularly, supplemented with ad hoc meetings as needed.
The CCSP employs strategies for accomplishing its mission and objectives that contribute
substantially to understanding of global climate change and support national and international
scientificand stakeholdercommunities. The strategies employed include:
.CEQ012709
Fundamental, long-term research on a broad range ofglobal change issues. Over the
past 15 years the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) elementof the CCSP
has provided planning and sponsorshipof the world's most extensive program of
scientific research, monitoring, data management, and assessment for climate change
analyses. The resultsof this program include the first ever globalcharacterization of
many aspects of the Earth's environment; the development of decadal-scale global
observations ofa limitednumber of environmentally importantvariables; detailed
knowledge ofa variety of processes important in the functioning of the Earth system; the
development ofEI Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts and derived products
used in management, planning, and emergency preparedness; and significant
improvement in the capability of models used to project the future evolutionof the Earth
system, as evidenced by improvements in their ability to simulatevariability in the
present and recentpast. USGCRP accomplishments are exemplified by large numbers of
peer reviewed scientificpapers and otherreports; unique data archives prepared with
USGCRP sponsorship; active involvement of US-based scientists in the work of
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCe) and other assessment activities;and
increased public awareness of issues associated with climate variability and change. The
greatest percentageof future CCSP budgets (incorporating both USGCRP and CCRI
elements) will be devoted to continuingthis essential investmentin.basic scientific Deleted: the
knowlecee: facilitating the discovery of the unexpected and advancing the frontiers of Deleted: communny
research.
Since the early years of the USGCRP an expanded program of global observations has
been developed to characterize climate variability and change on a global and regional
basis. These observations have included paleoclimatestudies interpreting climate
parameters over thousandsof years, satellite remote sensing systems operated by NASA
and NOAA, and numerous in situ observations at the terrestrialsurface (including the
polar regions), in the atmosphere, and in the surface and deep oceans.The suite of
available observations includes many types of long-term monitoring programs, as well as
a large number of limited duration measurements obtained during research programs.
Satellite observationsmade under the USGCRP have providedthe first-ever continuous
(up to a decade) data sets about the global distribution of importantenvironmental
parameters and their spatial and temporal variability.
CEQ 012710
and diverse format of available observations requires a major expansion of the capacity to
prioritize, quality assure, archive, and disseminate (in useful format) the elements of this
extensive record; and (2) The importance of integrated evaluation of climate and
ecosystem parameters requires the development of new requirements for integrated
observation systems,followed by system design and implementation, to address
additional research issues including ecosystem and land use/land cover forcing and
feedback relationships with other climate parameters, In implementing its observing
strategy, the CCSP will adhere to National Research Council climate monitoring
principles, as well as the GCOS climate monitoring principles for satellites.
Since the earliestyears of the USGCRP and its counterparts aroundthe world, the use of
available scientificinformation to address key questions about changesin climate and
related systems has continuously grown in importance. The availablescientific record has
already been used for many years to address fundamental questions of detection and
attribution of anthropogenic climate change.Currently, at leastthree complementary
considerations create significant new demands for the CCSP to improve science-based
decision support processes and tools to address possible response strategies:
(1) The economic costs of many proposed response options are widely understood to be
very large. This creates a demand to reduce uncertainty in the underlying science as
much as possible, especially in understanding the sensitivityof the climate systemto
future forcing and improving projections of impacts in climate and related
environmental and socio-economicsystems that may developover periods of decades
or longer.
(2) The needs of science-based detection and attribution analyses have become more
. demanding in order to support differential evaluations of various proposed mitigation
and adaptationstrategies. For example, is the underlyingscience sufficiently robust to
discriminate between the potential implicationsof different mitigation strategies that
may have widely different economic impacts?
(3) Increasingly, decision making about regional and sectoral responses to climate
variability and change holds the greatestchallenges and opportunities for emerging
decision support resources. Decisionmaking,would benefit from increased ( Deleted: can
understanding of the potential impacts of changes in climate on related ecosystems
and dimensionsof human societies, and from improved information on options for
adaptation.
The CCSP will respond to these needs by focusing efforts to developresources and
stakeholder interactions... 1t will also develop new methodanndjools, firmly grounded in Deleted: 01the nencnaltevel and In •
Widerange of regtcnal and sectoral
scientific methodand accurately conveyingall relevant uncertainties and their extcnt,JQ contexts
facilitate economicanalysis, decision making under uncertainty, and integration and Deleted: ,
interpretation of information from the natural and social sciences in particular decision Deleted: modele.
contexts.
Deleted: other
Deleted: tha
4. Stressing openness and transparency in communication of results.
Global climate change is complex and often subject to disputed interpretations even
among well-respectedscientists. The economic and policy dimensions of the issue often
give rise to even greater disputes among individuals with different policy views. Virtually
CEQ012711
everyone involved with climate change issues is aware of frequent out-of-context
disputes that can be characterized as "publicdebate by headlines": selective citations
from the scientificliterature; advocacy-oriented quotations from interested persons (often
citing their own expertise); and other debatingtactics. As an essential part of its mission,
the CCSP undertakes the significant responsibility of enhancingthe quality of debate by
stressing openness and transparency in its findings and reports.
CCSP will employ at least four methods to insure the trustworthiness of its reported
findings: (1) use of structured analyses (usually question-based) for CCSP scientific
synthesis, assessment, and projection reports; (2) use of transparent methodologies which
openly report all key assumptions, methods, uncertainties and data used in developing
analyses; (3) continuous use of web-based and other forms of information dissemination
so that all CCSP information is freely availableto all interestedusers;and (4) frequent
use of "draft for comment" methods toseek external review beforecompletion of each
key document. CCSP will also continue to urge all of its sponsored researchers to seek
publication of their findings in the peer reviewed scientific literature.
Some of these credibility-enhancing steps have already been introduced through the
public dissemination and review of the CCSP Discussion Draft Strategic Plan in
November 2002, the open public workshops with 1,300 participants in December 2002,
the subsequent publiccomment period,and the invited review by a committee ofthe
National Research Council.
5. Maintaining continuous dialog with the domestic and international scientific and,othcr ( Deleted: stakeholder
communities. supplemented by preparation of public education resource materials to
convey state-of-the-science information.
The domestic and international communities addressing global climate change are
already well developed: in IPCC collaboration, scientific literaturepublications, and
many other scientific forums; in policydiscussions in Washington and other world
capitals; and in the media throughout the world. The CCSP has a major responsibility to
communicate with interested partners in the United States and throughout the world.and
to learn from these partners on a continuing basis. Because of the unique, large public
resource commitment to CCSP activities, the CCSP also has a specific responsibility to
report its findings in the form of educational materials suitable for use at various
educational and public information levels, so that the dissemination of its findings will be
effective.
For the purposes of this plan. global climate change is defined as the combinationof climate
change and the associatedaspects of global change. Climate change includes both natural
variabilityand changes that result from anthropogenic influences in the atmosphere, the
hydrosphere(precipitation in all forms. the surface and deep oceans, and surface and
underground water circulation in continental areas), and the cryosphere (snow and ice covered
regions). It includes processes and phenomenaat scales from regional to global, and on time
scales from seasonal to centennial. The "associated aspects of global change" include the entire
set of ecosystem and landuse/land cover changesthat have significant forcing and/or feedback
CEQ 012712
relationships with climatechange parameters. They also include changes in the natural or human
systems that are affected by variability and change in climate and relatedenvironmental systems.
CEQ 012713
THE U.S. CLIMATE CHANGE SCIENCE PROGRAM:
VISION, MISSION, OBJECTIVES, STRATEGIES, AND PRIORITIES
Climate plays an important role in shaping the environment, natural resources, infrastructure, the
economy, and other important aspects of our way of life. Natural climate variability, the risk of
human-induced changes in climate and related environmental systems, and potential adaptation
and mitigation options may have substantial environmental, economic, and societal
consequences. The full spectrum of public and private sector decision makers will need reliable
and readily understood information to compare the potential implications of different strategies
and actions and make scientifically informed decisions. The U.S. Climate Change Science
Program (CCSP) envisions a world where scientific advances support stewardship of climate
sensitive resources to benefit present and future generations. This will require more than an
improved scientific understanding of the Earth's environment and how it is changing, but also
development of new capabilities for assessment and interpretation of scientific information. The
CCSP will work in close partnership with the international science community, policymakers,
and public and private sector managers to achieve this vision. It will routinely provide reliable
information through active communications mechanisms with these and other interested parties.
These objectives focus on reducing uncertainties and closing gaps in scientific knowledge that
are central to a wide range of public and private sector interests. By building on the already
considerable knowledge and deepening understanding of these issues, the program will
substantially improve capacity to deliver timely data and information essential for decision
making. Developing this capacity requires a diverse, multi-faceted research program that focuses
on the Earth's major environmental systems, their natural dynamics, and their interactions with
society.
CEQ 012714
MANAGEMENT of the CCSP
The CCSP is responsible for producing research that will support infanned decisions on climate-
related resource stewardship and energy policy. The CCSP provides leadership for the large
public investment that addresses this issue on behalf of the United States. The CCSP
incorporates the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and the Climate Change
Research Initiative (CCRI).
The USGCRP began as an interagency initiative in 1989, and was codified in the 1990 Global
Change Research Act (Public Law 101-606). The USGCRP has operated continuously since
1989, and by January 2003 had provided over $20 billion of support for global climate change
research and monitoring-the largest such investment of public resources on this topic in the
world. In June 200 I President Bush created the CCRI to increase the focus of U.S. sponsored
research on key scientific uncertainties that might be reduced in the near term (i.e., within 2 to 5
years) and to develop scientific syntheses that would facilitate public understanding of various
response strategies related to global climate change.
In February 2002 President Bush created a new, cabinet level management structure (see Figure
1) to oversee the ongoing public investments in climate change science and technology, with a
combined annual budget exceeding $3 billion. As part of the President's management structure,
the Climate Change Science Program provides joint management of the USGCRP and the CCRI.
Ongoing management of the CCSP is the responsibility ofa 13-member interagency steering
committee that includes a senior representative of each of the 13 agencies participating in the
program. The CCSP reports to the Interagency Working Group on Climate Change Science and
Technology that functions as a "Board of Directors" with supervisory oversight of both the
science and technology programs. The Interagency Working Group membership includes deputy
secretary and deputy administrator level representatives of the relevant cabinet departments and
independent agencies, and high level representatives ofOMB, CEQ and OSTP. The Interagency
Working Group meets regularly, supplemented with ad hoc meetings as needed.
The CCSP employs strategies for accomplishing its mission and objectives that contribute
substantially to understanding of global climate change and support national and international
scientific and stakeholder communities. The strategies employed include:
Fundamental, long-term research on a broad range ofglobal change issues. Over the
past IS years the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) element of the CCSP
has provided planning and sponsorship of the world's most extensive program of
scientific research, monitoring, data management, and assessment for climate change
analyses. The results of this program include the first ever global characterization of
many aspects of the Earth's environment; the development of decadal-scale global
observations of a limited number of environmentally important variables; detailed
knowledge ofa variety of processes important in the functioning of the Earth system; the
development of EI Nino-Southern Oscillation (EN SO) forecasts and derived products
used in management, planning, and emergency preparedness; and significant
CEQ 012715
improvement in the capability of models used to project the future evolution of the Earth
system, as evidenced by improvements in their ability to simulate 'variability in the
present and recent past. USGCRP accomplishments are exemplified by large numbers of
peer reviewed scientific papers and other reports; unique data archives prepared with
.USGCRP sponsorship; active involvement of US-based scientists in the work of
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and other assessment activities; and
increased public awareness of issues associated with climate variability and change. The
greatest percentage of future CCSP budgets (incorporating both USGCRP and CCRI
elements) will be devoted to continuing this essential investment in the scientific
community: facilitating the discovery of the unexpected and advancing the frontiers of
research.
Since the early years of the USGCRP an expanded program of global observations has
been developed to characterize climate variability and change on a global and regional
basis. These observations have included paleoclimate studies interpreting climate
parameters over thousands of years, satellite remote sensing systems operated by NASA
and NOAA, and numerous in situ observations at the terrestrial surface (including the
polar regions), in the atmosphere, and in the surface and deep oceans. The suite of
available observations includes many types of long-term monitoring programs, as well as
a large number of limited duration measurements obtained during research programs.
Satellite observations made under the USGCRP have provided the first-ever continuous
(up to a decade) data sets about the global distribution of important environmental
parameters and their spatial and temporal variability.
CEQ 012716
strategy, the CCSP will adhere to National Research Council climate monitoring
principles, as well as the GCOS climate monitoring principles for satellites.
Since the earliest years of the USGCRP and its counterparts around the world, the use of
available scientific information to address key questions about changes in climate and
related systems has continuously grown in importance. The available scientific record has
already been used for many years to address fundamental questions of detection and
attribution of anthropogenic climate change. Currently, at [east three complementary ,
considerations create significant new demands for the CCSP to improve science-based
decision support processes and tools to .address possible response strategies:
(I) The economic costs of many proposed response options are widely understood to be
very large. This creates a demand to reduce uncertainty in the underlying science as
much as possible, especially in understanding the sensitivity of the climate system to
future forcing and improving projections of impacts in climate and related
environmental and socio-economic systems that may develop over periods of decades
or longer.
(2) The needs of science-based detection and attribution analyses have become more
demanding in order to support differential evaluations of various proposed mitigation
and adaptation strategies. For example, is the underlying science sufficiently robust to
discriminate between the potential impl ications of different mitigation strategies that
may have widely different economic impacts?
(3) Increasingly, decision making about regional and sectoral responses to climate
variability and change holds the greatest challenges and opportunities for emerging
decision support resources. Decision making can benefit from increased
understanding of the potential impacts of changes in climate on related ecosystems
and dimensions of human societies, and from improved information on options for
adaptation.
The CCSP will respond to these needs by focusing efforts to develop resources and
stakeholder interactions at the national level and in a wide range of regional and sectoral
contexts. It will also develop new methods, models, and other tools that facilitate
economic analysis, decision making under uncertainty, and integration and interpretation
of information from the natural and social sciences in particular decision contexts.
Global climate change is complex and often subject to disputed interpretations even
among well-respected scientists. The economic and policy dimensions of the issue often
give rise to even greater disputes among individuals with different policy views. Vir.: :;!!~'
everyone involved with climate change issues is aware of frequent out-of-context
disputes that can be characterized as "public debate by headlines"; selective citations
from the scientific literature; advocacy-oriented quotations from interested persons (often
citing their own expertise); and other debating tactics. As an essential part of its mission,
the CCSP undertakes the significant responsibility of enhancing the quality of debate by
stressing openness and transparency inits findings and reports.
CEQ 012717
eesp will employ at least four methods to insure the trustworthiness of its reported
findings: (I) use of structured analyses (usually question-based) for CCSP scientific
synthesis, assessment, and projection reports; (2) use of transparent methodologies which
openly report all key assumptions, methods, and data used in developing analyses; (3)
continuous use of web-based and other forms of information dissemination so that all
eesp information is freely available to all interested users; and (4) frequent use of "draft
for comment" methods to seek external review beforecompletion of each key document.
eesp will also continue to urge all of its sponsored researchers to seek publication of
their findings in the peer reviewed scientific literature.
Some of these credibility-enhancing steps have already been introduced through the
public dissemination and review of the eesp Discussion Draft Strategic Plan in
November 2002, the open public workshops with 1,300 participants in December 2002,
the subsequent public comment period, and the invited review by a committee of the
National Research Council.
5. Maintaining continuous dialog with the domestic and international scientific and
stakeholder communities, supplemented by preparation of public education resource
materials to convey state-of-the-science information.
The domestic and international communities addressing global climate change are
already well developed: in IPCe collaboration, scientific literature publications, and
many other scientific forums; in policy discussions in Washington and other world
capitals; and in the media throughoutthe world. The cesp has a major responsibility to
communicate with interested partners in the United States and throughout the world, and
to learn from these partners on a continuing basis. Because of the unique, large public
resource commitment to CCSPactivities, the ecsp also has a specific responsibility to
report its findings in the form of educational materials suitable for use at various
educational and public information levels, so that the dissemination of its findings will be
effective.
For the purposes of this plan, global climate change is defined as the combination of climate
change and the associated aspects of global change. Climate change includes both natural
variability and changes that result from anthropogenic influences in the atmosphere, the
hydrosphere (precipitation in all forms, the surface and deep oceans, and surface and
underground water circulation in continental areas), and the cryosphere (snow and ice covered
regions). It includes processes and phenomena at scales from regional to global, and on time
scales from seasonal to centennial. The "associated aspects of global change" include the entire
set of ecosystem and land use/land cover changes that have significant forcing and/or feedback
relationships with climate change parameters. They also include changes in the natural or human
systems that are affected by variability and change in climate and related environmental systems.
CEQ 012718
DRAFT for Working Group Co-Chair and Lead Author Review
NOT FOR FURTHER DISTRIBUTION OR CIRCULATION
Introduction
The CCSP will produce many different products over the coming decade. The most
numerous products will be the peer-reviewed journal articles published by researchers
working under CCSP sponsorship. The thirteen CCSP agencies will also produce
numerous reports, data sets, and models on specific topics as appropriate within their
responsibilities. In addition, the interagency science working groups have identified
science and decision support products that will result from interagency collaboration.
Over 100 such products are described in various chapters of the eesp plan. Finally,
approximately 20 science syntheses, decision support products, and assessments have
been identified as program wide products. These deliverables will address topics
important to public debate, national decision-making, or resource management. These
deliverables wi II be key measures of CCSP' s achievement of its mission and goals.
This list of state of science and scientific synthesis products will be coordinated with the
IPee, so that these deliverables from the eesp can feed into the process of producing
the IPCe Fourth Assessment Report, due out in 2007.
cesp program-wide products will be developed following one of three processes. In all
cases eesp will provide oversight and direction, and cesp standards of transparency
will be met. Each of the preparation processes will include initial public and stakeholder
consultations, an external advisory apparatus, and extensive technical and public review.
Selection of which analysis methodes) to use in preparing a report will be made by the
eesp, based on the recommendations of the Interagency Oversight Group for Decision
Support and the relevant topically-focused Interagency Working Group. ecsp will be
involved in preparation of the each deliverable, either directly, or by providing continuing
oversight and arranging final review and revision processes
eEQ 012719
DRAFT for Working Group Co-Chair and Lead Author Review
NOT FOR FURTHER DISTRIBUTION OR CIRCULATION
Process 1: direct preparation byfederal agency technical staff Under CCSP direction,
agency research scientists and analysts will work either in virtual teams from their home
agencies or labs, or as ad hoc seconded teams at the CCSP office in Washington.
Agencies will provide the scientific/analytic personnel required to complete these
deliverables. Depending on the ability of agencies to identify personnel and commit
resources to the project, that this would typically be the fastest model for preparation of
CCSP deliverables, taking a minimum of 12 months from initial conception to final
delivery (and including the consultations and reviews described above).
Process 2: use ofexternal groups. Consultant groups, laboratories, research groups, etc.
will compete to develop specific products as determined by cesp. CCSP will issue a call
for proposals and collectively review and accept a winning bid. The responsibilities of the
contracting organization will vary by project but can extend from data collection and
analysis, to modeling, to handling the public consultation and review processes. This
process will typically lead to a finished product in a minimum of 18 months.
Process 3: CCSP fellow produced products. Under CCSP direction researchers drawn
from universities and other non-Federal research institutions will lead preparation of the
deliverable as CCSP fellows. CCSP will issue a prospectus and fellowship
announcement, and select fellows through a competition. Fellows will be based in the
CCSP Office in Washington. This model will typically require a minimum of24 months
from initial conception to final delivery.
CEQ 012720
DRAFT for Working Group Co-Chair and Lead Author Review
NOT FOR FURTHER DISTRIBUTION OR CIRCULA nON
Quantify the forces acttnz to brlna about changes in the Earth's climate
2005 New GHG emissions and concentration scenarios using updated information
on driving forces and inputs from CCTP, and related report on the state of
the art in integrated scenario development and application
2005 State of North American carbon cycle report, with synthesis and extension
to global carbon cycle where possible
2006 Update on state of scientific understanding of aerosol forcing (for all types
of aerosols) and implications for climate effects
2006 Report on ozone-depleting substances, ozone layer recovery, and
implications for UV exposure and climate forcing
Determine how the climate and Earth systems may change in the future across a
wide range of time and spatial scales, including the potential for abrupt change
2005 Climate scenarios for research and assessment based on 2004 emissions
scenarios
2006 State-of-the-art report on climate models and their uses and limitations,
including information on model sensitivity, feedbacks, and uncertainty
2007 Climate extremes: state of the science including documentation of current
extremes and prospects for improvement of projections
2007 Report updating estimates ofthe climate response to different emissions
(e.g., C02, aerosols, black soot) and land use scenarios
2007 Probabilistic estimates of the risks of abrupt global and regional climate-
induced impacts
CEQ 012721
DRAFT for Working Group Co-Chair and Lead Author Review
NOT FOR FURTHER DISTRIBUTION OR CIRCULATION
Research, design, and develop resources that will enable society to manage the risks
and opportunities of variability and change in climate- and related environmental
systems
2004 Report on uses and limitations of observations, data, forecasts, and other
projections in decision support for selected sectors and regions
2005 Report on best practice approaches for characterizing, communicating, and
incorporating scientific uncertainty in decision making
2005 Elevation maps depicting areas vulnerable to sea level rise and planning
maps depicting how state and local governments plan to respond to sea level
rise
2005 Regional/sectoral decision support experiments: analysis and reports on
decision support experiments selected from the following areas:
stream/watershed management; agriculture/ranching; forest/wildfire
management; climate-modulated infectious and vector-borne health risks
2006 Evaluation of the potential for carbon sequestration in different ecosystems
and agricultural systems, including initial greenhouse gas accounting
analyses and guidelines for agriculture and forestry
[Note: this list requires further development. A key issue will be obtaining input from the
agencies and the interagency working groups. The top-down list of integrative products
needs to be feasible from their perspectives. The products identified here will need to be
able to be developed by integrating different deliverables from throughout the research
elements and agencies. The feasibility matrices collected from the working groups can
also be a useful input.]
CEQ 012722
CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH INITIATIVE
The Climate Change Research Initiative (CCRI) represents a focusing of resources and
attention on those elements ofthe USGCRP that can best support improved public debate
and decision-making in the near term. In particular, a goal of the CCRI is to improve the
integration of scientific knowledge, including measures of uncertainty, into effective
decision-support systems.
The CCRI will adopt performance metrics and deliverable products useful to
policymakers in a short time frame (2-5 years). To meet this goal, the CCRI aims to
reduce uncertainty with respect to key areas in climate science, enhance observation and
monitoring systems to support scientific and trend analyses, and improve climate
modeling capabilities and related decision-support resources.
2. Improve our understanding of the global carbon cycle (sources and sinks).
Research objectives for carbon cycle science include modeling, inventory, observations,
process research, and assessment, integrated according to topic areas that represent some
of the field's greatest areas of uncertainty. CCRI funds will be targeted for the Integrated
North American Carbon Program (NACP), a priority ofthe U.S. Carbon Cycle Science
Plan. This program will have an intensive focus on North American land and adjacent
ocean basin carbon sources and sinks to improve monitoring techniques, reconcile
CEQ 013309
approaches for quantifying carbon storage, and elucidate key controlling processes and
land management practices regulating carbon fluxes between the atmosphere and the land
and ocean: The NACP calls for expansion of the AmeriFlux site network, the
development of automated carbon dioxide and methane sensors, improvements in
ground-based measurements and inventories of forest and agricultural lands, and
empirical and process modeling.
3. Enhance and expand observations of the Earth system. CCRl will support work to
reestablish the benchmark upper-air network, emphasizing data-sparse areas, and place
new Global Atmosphere Watch stations in priority sites to measure pollutant emissions,
aerosols and ozone in specific regions. CCRl will also support work toward the
establishment of an ocean observing system that can accurately monitor changes in ocean
heat content, carbon uptake, and sea level. Through CCRl, NASA and NOAA will
develop high-fidelity climate data records from satellite observing systems. These efforts
will benefit from, and contribute to, the design and operational implementation over the
next ten years of a new international Earth Observation program, in cooperation with our
international partners.
CEQ 013310
U.S. GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM
"Our nation will continue to lead the world in basic climate and science research
to address gaps in our knowledge that are important to decision makers."
The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) is an organized set of linked
research program elements, which together support basic scientific research across a wide
range of interconnected issues of climate and global change. The USGCRP was
established by the Global Change Research Act of 1990 to address natural and human-
induced changes in the Earth's global environmental system; to monitor, understand, and
predict global change; and to provide a sound scientific basis for national and
international decision making. To date, more than $20 billion of research funding has
supported the USGCRP.
CEQ 013311
Climate Variability and Change - USGCRP-supported research on climate variability
and change is being focused on how climate elements that are particularly important to
human and natural systems - especially temperature, precipitation, clouds, winds, and
storminess - are affected by changes in the Earth system that result from natural
processes as well as from human activities. Activities in the program are specifically
oriented toward: predictions of seasonal to decadal climate variations (for example, the EI
Nino/Southern Oscillation); improved detection, attribution, and projections oflonger
term changes in climate; the potential for changes in extreme events at regional to local
scales; the possibility of abrupt climate change; and ways to improve the communication
of this information to inform national dialogue and support public and private sector
decision-making.
Global Water Cycle - USGCRP-supported research on the global water cycle focuses
on: (1) the effects of large-scale changes in land use and climate on the capacity of
societies to provide adequate supplies of clean water; and (2) how natural processes and
human activities influence the distribution and quality of water within the Earth system
and to what extent the resultant changes are predictable. Specific areas include:
identifying trends in the intensity of the water cycle and determining the causes of these
changes (including feedback effects of clouds on the global water and energy budgets as
well as the global climate system); predicting precipitation and evaporation on timescales
ofmonths to years and longer; and modeling physical/biological processes and human
use of water, to facilitate efficient water resources management.
CEQ 013312
Land UsefLand Cover Change - USGCRP-supported research on changes in land use
and land cover focuses on: (1) the processes that determine the temporal and spatial
distribution ofland cover and land use change at local, regional, and global scales, and
how land use and land cover can be projected over timescales of 10-50 years; and (2)
how the dynamics of land use, land management, and land-cover change will affect
global environmental changes and regional-scale environmental and socioeconomic
conditions, including economic welfare and human health, and how global environmental
changes will affect land use and land cover. Research will identify and quantify the
human drivers of land-use/land-cover change; improve monitoring, measuring, and .
mapping of land use and land cover and the management of data systems; and develop
proj ections of land-cover and land-use change under various scenarios of climate,
demographic, economic, and technological trends.
CEQ 013313
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CEQ 013314
V.3
A NEW STRATEGIC PLAN FOR CLIMATE SCIENCE
Questions for the 21st Century
"Our nation will continue to lead the world in basic climate and science research
to address gaps in our knowledge that are important to decision makers."
In May 2001, the Bush Administration asked the National Academy of Sciences -
National Research Council (NRC) to provide an updated evaluation of available scientific
knowledge with respect to climate change. In particular, the Administration sought the
Academy's assistance in identifying the areas in the science of climate change where
there were the greatest certainties and uncertainties in our knowledge and understanding.
The NRC committee report, Climate Change Science: An Analysis a/Some Key
Questions, was issued the following moeth of June 2001. Among its findings, the report
concluded:
"Reducing the wide range of uncertainty inherent in current model predictions of global
climate change will require major advances in understanding and modeling of both (1)
the factors that determine atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols,
and (2) the so-called "feedbacks" that determine the sensitivity of the climate system to a
prescribed increase in greenhouse gases. There also is a pressing need for a global
observing system designed for monitoring climate. (p.l)"
The report also outlined several areas of emphasis that need to be addressed in order to
advance our understanding of climate variability and change:
"Making progress in reducing the large uncertainties in projections of future climate will
require addressing a number of fundamental scientific questions relating to the buildup of
greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the behavior of the climate system. ( ... )
Maintaining a vigorous, ongoing program of basic research, funded and managed
independently of the climate assessment activity, will be crucial for narrowing these
uncertainties. (... )
"In addition, the research enterprise dealing with environmental change and the
interactions of human society with the environment must be enhanced. (... )
An effective strategy for advancing the understanding of climate change also will require
(I) a global observing system in support oflong-term climate monitoring and prediction,
(2) concentration on large-scale modeling through increased, dedicated supercomputing
and human resources, and (3) efforts to ensure that climate research is supported and
managed to ensure innovation, effectiveness, and efficiency. (p.5)"
CEQ 013331
In response to the findings of the NRC in its June 2001, the President announced a new
Climate Change Research Initiative (COO) intended ",., to study areas of uncertainty and
identify priority areas where investments can make a difference." The CCRl will provide
a focus on research initiatives that can significantly reduce uncertainty in our
understanding of climate variability and change within 5 years. The CCRl also promotes
a vision focused on the effective use of scientific knowledge in policy and management
decisions, and continued evaluation of management strategies and choices.
The CCRl was intended as an effort to accelerate key areas of long-term research
supported by the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The USGCRP
began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was codified by Congress in the Global
Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), which mandates development ofa
coordinated interagency research program. Section 104 of that law requires the regular
revision of a "National Global Change Research Plan" and subsequent National Research
Council evaluation of any such revised plan.
This Strategic Plan is intended to ensure that the USGCRP and CCRl coordinate their
activities under the aegis of the Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) and accelerate
progress on reducing the substantial uncertainties that exist regarding the Earth's climate
system and its future evolution. This Plan has resulted from extensive transparent
discussions with a wide range of stakeholders from the scientific community, interest
groups, the public and the media, including a public workshop held in December 2002.
This Plan will guide the conduct of climate change scientific research activities sponsored
or conducted by the U.S. Government. It will be modified and updated as warranted by
the emergence of key science findings and important new scientific questions.
A nation and tile global community empowered with the science-based Delettd: seriousness of theissuesand
the
knowledge to manage tile risks and opportunities of change in the climate and
Deleted: ce
related environmental systems.
Deleted: y's course
CEQ 013332
The core precept that motivates the CCSP is that the best possible scientific knowledge
should be the foundation for the information required to manage the imQactsof climate
variability and potential climate change. t.....
Thus the mission of the _..
CCSP is to: ( Deleted: andrelated aspects of global
.. . .. _ change.
The CCSP will add significant integrative value to the individual Earth and climate
science missions of its 13 participating Federal agencies and departments, and their
national and international partners. A critical function of the interagency program is to ( Deleted: role
coordinate research and integrate and synthesize info~a'iioi:i 'to achieve 'results ·tliat no
single agency,.,. could achieve alone. Deleted: • or smallgroup of agencies,
. --:----=---1' . ...
Deleted: .uain
Five broad,goals have be~~. i~e~~~ed. .t~,ens.~~.0:~tkn.~:w.led~~ ~e~~I.?p~~.by' the C;C~P. Deleted: cess
I
,can be integrated and syn~es~ed to,Pllrsuc: .t~~ vision of th.e CCSP: .' . .. Deleted: focus8lldortent researchin
the program to
1. Improve knowledge ofthe Earth's past and present climate and environment, Deleted: panieipating agencies snd
research elements
including its natural variability, and improve understanding ofthe causes of
observed variabilitY and changes. Deleted: address thesebroadquestions
. 3. Reduce uncertainty in projections ofhow the Earth 's climate and related
systems may change ill the future.
5. Explore tire uses and identify the limits ofevolving knowledge to manage risks
and opportunities related to climate variability and change.
Each of the specific program elements and initiatives to be carried out under the Climate
Change Research Initiative (CCRI) or the U.S. Global Change Research Program
(USGCRP) can be related to one or more of these five principal CCSP goals.
CEQ 013333
CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH INITIATIVE
The Climate Change Research Initiative (CCRI) represents a focusing of resources and
attention on those elements of the USGCRP that can best support improved public debate
and decision-making in the near term. In particular, the goal of the COO is to -- within
the next 5 years -- improve the integration of scientific knowledge (including measures of
uncertainty) into policy and management decisions, and evaluation of management
strategies and choices.
b. Improve our understanding of the global carbon cycle (sources and sinks).
CCRI funds will be targeted for activities to carry out the Integrated North
American Carbon Program (NACP), a key element of the U.S. Carbon Cycle
Science Plan. This program will have an intensive focus on North American land
and adjacent ocean basin carbon sources and sinks to improve monitoring
techniques, reconcile approaches for quantifying carbon storage, and elucidate
key controlling processes and land management practices regulating carbon fluxes
between the atmosphere and the land and ocean. The NACP calls for expansion of
the AmeriFlux site network, the development of automated carbon dioxide and
methane sensors, improvements in ground-based measurements and inventories of
forest and agricultural lands, and empirical and process modeling.
CEQ 013334
variability and change. CCRI will prioritize activities to support increased Deleted: withanyreasonable
understanding of feedback processes affecting Arctic diinate 'vmahlHij"and confidence
Deleted:prioritize activities intended
change (sea ice, methane release from pennafrost). CCRI will also support to: resolve discrepancies in measured
activities to evaluate the role of clouds and water vapor in detennining surface surface IOd lower troposphere
temperature !mitis; measure and model
and lower troposphere temperature trends, and to improve basic understanding of Arcticand highlatitudeclimate
natural modes of climate variability (e.g. EI NiUo, North Atlantic Oscillation) that variability(fotUSing cspa:ially on the
role of seaice); improve bask
involve nonlinear feedback mechanisms affecting the atmosphere and the ocean. understanding of naturalmodesor
climate variability (e.g. EI Nilio.Nonh
AtlanticOscillation); anddocument
2. Enhance and expand observations of the Earth system. CCRI will support work to potential for abruptclimatechangesusing
reestablish the benchmark upper-air network, emphasizing data-sparse areas, and place paleoclimatic records.
new Global Atmosphere Watch stations in priority sites to measure pollutant emissions,
aerosols and ozone in specific regions. CCRI will also support work toward the
establishment of an ocean observing system that can accurately monitor changes in ocean
heat content, carbon uptake, and sea level. CCRl will support development of high-
fidelity climate data records from in-situ and satellite observing systems. These efforts
will benefit from, and contribute to, the design and operational implementation over the
next ten years of a new international Earth Observation program, in cooperation with our
international partners.
3. Increase our climate modeling capacity. CCRI will support continued development
and refinement of computational climate models that can simulate the past, present and
potential future conditions of the Earth system. Priority activities will focus on improving
model physics (particularly with respect to clouds and aerosols), increasing resolution of
climate model simulations, developing improved methods to assimilate observations into
model analyses and predictions, and exploring limits to predictability of climate
variability and change. CCRI will also support the development of climate mode ling
capabilities to provide routine model products for policy and management decision
support.
"We do not know how much our climate could, or will change in the future. We
do not know how fast change will occur, or even how some of our actions could impact
it."
President Bush, June 11, 2001
The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) is an organized set of linked
research program elements, which together support basic scientific research across a wide
range of interconnected issues of climate and global change. The USGCRP was
established by the Global Change Research Act of 1990 to address natural and human-
induced changes in the Earth's global environmental system; to monitor, understand, and
predict global change; and to provide a sound scientific basis for national and
international decision making.
CEQ 013335
Each USGCRP research elements focuses on topics crucial to documenting and
monitoring change, improving projections of change, or developing useful products to
support decision-making. They all pertain to major components of the Earth's
environmental systems, which are undergoing changes caused by a variety of natural and
human-induced causes. Changes in one component (e.g. the atmosphere) affect the other
components (e.g. oceans, biota, etc.) such that it is not possible to understand the future
evolution of the climate system without understanding the important characteristics of
each of its individual components.
CEQ 013336
Global Water Cycle - USGCRP-supported research on the global water cycle focuses
on: (1) the effects of large-scale changes in land use and climate on the capacity of
societies to provide adequate supplies of clean water; and (2) how natural processes and
human activities influence the distribution and quality of water within the Earth system
and to what extent the resultant changes are predictable. Specific areas include:
identifying trends in the intensity of the water cycle and determining the causes of these
changes (including feedback effects of clouds on the global water and energy budgets as
well as the global climate,system); predicting precipitation and evaporation on times cales
of months to years and longer; and modeling physical/biological processes and human
use of water, to facilitate efficient water resources management.
CEQ 013337
PROGRAM DmECTION
In February 2002, the President created a new Cabinet-level management structure, the
Committee on Climate Change Science and Technology Integration (CCCSTI), to
oversee the more than $3 billion annual investment in the combined federal climate
change research and technology development programs. The new management structure
places accountability and leadership for the science and technology programs in the
relevant cabinet departments.
As part of this new management structure, the Climate Change Science Program (CCSP)
was created to provide direct oversight and ensure that the USGCRP and CCRI
coordinate their activities and accelerate progress on substantial uncertainties regarding
the Earth's climate system. The budgets of the CCRl and USGCRP program elements are
developed and maintained separately, but the program management structure is identical
for both the CCRI and USGCRP elements.
Setting Priorities
In developing priorities contained in this Strategic Plan, the CCSP has considered
information from many sources including:
• The focus on reducing key scientific uncertainties through the Climate Change
Research Initiative of June 2001;
• The annual program plans of the thirteen collaborating CCSP agencies and
departments, as documented in the annual series of Our Changing Planet
reports.
• The deliberations of the nearly 1,300 scientists and stakeholders attending the
CCSP-sponsored Climate Change Science Workshop in December 2002.
CEQ 013338
~ Written corrunents submitted during a 60-day public review period after the
December 2002 CCSP workshop. When collated, these comments amounted
to nearly 900 pages of input from hundreds of scientists, interest groups, and
interested members of the public.
In addition, the National Research Council will provide a second report in late 2003,
expressing its conclusions and recommendations on the quality of this updated Strategic
Plan, on the process used to produce it, and on the process for developing subsequent
findings to be reported by the CCSP.
To ensure that the projects funded under the CCSP address needs identified in this
Strategic Plan, the following criteria have been developed to assist participating agencies
in reviewing proposals for support:
Track record ofconsistently good past performance and identified metrics for
evaluatingfuture progress
• Programs addressing existing priorities with good track records of past
performance will be favored for continued investment to the extent that
timetables and metrics for evaluating future progress are provided.
• Proposed programs that identify clear milestones for periodic assessment and
documentation of progress will be favorably considered for new investment.
CEQ 013339
0983_f_lq4qh003_ceq.txt
RECORD TYPE: FEDERAL (NOTES MAIL)
CREATOR:Kenneth L. Peel ( cN=Kenneth L. peel/OU=CEQ/O=EOP [ CEQ] )
CREATION DATE/TIME: 9-JUL-2003 17:45:21.00
SUBJECT:: Annexes to the plan
To:jeffrey.b.clark@usdoj.gov @ inet ( jeffrey.b.clark@usdoj.gov @ inet [ UNKNOWN] )
READ: UNKNOWN
TEXT:
2 of 3
---------------------- Forwarded by Kenneth L. peel/CEQ/EOP on 07/09/2003
05:44 PM ---------------------------
phil cooney
07/09/2003 08:09:52 AM
Record Type: Record
TO: Kenneth L. peel/CEQ/EOP@EOP
cc:
subject: Annexes to the plan
phil Cooney
07/02/2003 07:20:55 AM
Record Type: Record
To: Quesean R. Rice/CEQ/EOP@EOP
cc:
subject: Annexes to the plan
QR, please print out attachments. THANKS! phil
---------------------- Forwarded by phil cooney/cEQ/EOP on 07/02/2003
07:20 AM ---------------------------
OU34CO
CEQ 013390
Jim Mahoney
- Strat plan Annexes 6-30-03.pdf
James.R.Mahoney.vcf
page 2
CEQ 013391
.1., "n ,
The Climate Change Science Program proposes to accelerate several ongoing climate
observing system activities focused OJ' reducing uncertainties in key components of the
climate system. This acceleration will ~so position the U.S. to work with its
international partners to implement the integrated earth observing system to be discussed
at the upcoming Earth Observations Summit.
Aeroso 1s ($25M) -
I I.
41'~fl\et'w
"Bro....." cto.J/· -h-vf,,:s~er\ c. o..e.roSols
Atmospheric fine particles (aerosols) can either absorb or scatter incoming solar
radiation, and they can alter the properties of clouds as well. This enhancement will
advance both our space- and ground-based observations of aerosols, which are a major
uncertainty ill projecting future climate change, as well as a central air quality issue.
Of the carbon dioxide emitted to the atmosphere, about half is currently taken up as part
of the natural cycling of carbon into the ocean, and into land plants and soils. This
enhancement focuses on advancing our observational capability for carbon cycling-in
North America, a key question for determining future levels of this most important
greenhouse gas.
CEQ 013409
DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT
DRAFT
STRATEGIC PLAN
DRAFT
August 15, 2003
CEQ 013565
DRAFf DRAFf DRAFf
Strategic Plan •. . .. (Formatted: Levell
Climate Change Technology Program
Overview (Front Piece)
"America's the leader in technology and innovation. We all believe technology offers great
promise to significantly reduce emissions. "
President George W. Bush, June II, 2001
OVERVIEW
Solutions to many of the critical challenges facing 21st Century civilization~~J.n~ludi~&.ensuring .'1 .. Deleted: .
access to clean water and tadequate food supplies1' preserving the environment, improving . Deleted: ,
sanitation and human health, eliminating poverty, sustaining economic growth and expanding
opportunities for less developed regions .- are made more possible by the existence of
affordable, reliable and secure energy suPPffes. Eiiergy"isnotj'ust thii iiandmaideii 'o'fprospenty, - ..
I Deleted: production
Deleted: ,
but a key enabler for technical progress. An energy-rich global community can better pursue
lasting and equitable environmental solutions.
Forecasts of long-term energy demand suggest multi-fold increases in world energy consumption
during the 21 st Century, driven by expanding population and economic development. If world
gross domestic product (GDP) were to grow at a modest rate of one percent per year for the next .I. .' (Deleted: but
100 years, assuming current trends in technology "fmprovemen't anifc!i':iiig;iig 'eriergy~use' ... '-------------'
patterns, energy demand would be expected to nearly triple by the end of the Century. Ifworld
GDP were to grow, instead, at a rate of two percent per year, which would be more in line with
long-run trends, world energy demand would likely increase by a factor of seven over ,that of ... \ ( Deleted: 10 morethanseven·fold
current levels. Structural changes in economic activity and accelerated energy-efficiency'"
improvement may slow, but will not eliminate these growth trends. Energy demand in the
particular form of electricity, a strongly productive and versatile energy carrier, is expected to Deleted: Commercial
grow much faster than energy use in general. Deleted: todayis closelytied to
Deleted: L
Most of present-day energy supply is generated from the combustion of fossil fuels, namely, : Deleted: of
coal, oil and naturalgas.. As 'li' riisu'ff mc)st 'fong~teITii 'roreeasts predict" sliriiificiini Increases hi . Deleted: to the Earth'satmosphere,
anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (C62)"aii,fothe'r 'greeniious'ei:ises' over'th'c'iiext"' .. arising primarilyfromthecombustion of
~eveiaj decades" in accordance 'witii thii 'proje'etecrIiicreas'e
=..;...:=::..:....:::===-<1'.... . .
'irl energy diimaild:'To reduce the' fisk _'"
.
fos>il fuels
Deleted: expectemissions 10 rise
of climate change and aid sustainable development, we must face the challenge of growing the
global economy while simultaneously slowing the growth of greenhouse gas emissions and, as Deleted:
science justifies, substantially reducing such en\lss1c;ns. Advancedenergy·technoii;mes·offera·····- Deleted: The challenge facingthose
who seck 10 slowthe growth in CO2
potential solution to this difficult challenge. emissions, as well asthe emissions of
other greenhousegases, or eventually10
reduce such emissicns 10 low levels. is 10
imAgine whal is possible and explore the
best ways to proceed.j
Deleted: DraftCCTP StrategicPlan
RevSA.doc
bh edits to cctp strategic plan draftS.doc August 29,2003
lof2S
CEQ 013566
DRAFT DRAFT DRAFf
Although the challenge of simultaneously increasing energy supply ~ reduci~g.g~~~~o~s.e... ,: Deleted: dual
~ emissions' may seem daunting, 'three factors 'provide'some "iiasli for' optimism..
'First, we face Deleted: growing
~Iong-term chal1enge, requiting sustained leadership for decades. !J1e pro~e.ss.~finl1ov.ationand Deleted: and
technology advancement; accelerated by investments in research 'and
deveiopment (R&D), to Deleted: it is a
playa key role in influencing the future. Deleted: Its long-term natureallowsI
Second, most of the national and global energy infrastructure that will be required by the end of Deleted: Illedas the foundatlon for
buildingthis
the Century to support the envisioned levels of growth does not exist today. The energy
Deleted: , to
technologies and related infrastructure that will be built over the coming decades wiJI profoundly .
shape global ~con6mic groWih'and', iinp'ortantly; 'li-eip' aetermfne "fiitlireJ:e~~~~6~~~h~~.u;~ gas::'" .
Deleted: and througboutlhe restof the
Century, forbetter orworse,
emissions. These new technologies can be significantly influenced by innovation and Deleted: the
technology ieadership. .. .
Deleted: at whiebsocietycontinuesto
emit
Third, the modem world has a long record of technological achievement on a grand scale, from Deleted: es
agricultural production to national security, from exploration cf space to the curing of dreaded Deleted: Whattechnclcgies the global
diseases. This record of invention and progress provides a basis for optimism with regards to the marketplacechoosesasthe fOUlldatio. for
long-term challenge for climate change. Similarly focused and sus~lne'd'technoiogy'R&b' ". this future will havefarmore effecton
greenhousegas concentrations in the
efforts can be expected to produce similar results over time, which could enable the world to Earth'satmosphere inthe future, than
how we operatetheenergyinfrastructure
reduce greenhouse gas emissions significantly, contributing to the goal of the United Nations of today.
Framework Convention on Climate Change.,
Deleted: some
be
opportunities.Fowever, wiif not easy. It wlif require a 'ii6 ld'new approach to' deveiopfng 'th'e'" '.
'. Deleted: re..invention
.' Deleted: , indeed, demand
,en~rgy te?hnologies needed to ~ffe.~t,th~se cha~g;esin our <:ner&y sXstern" . .
" .', Deleted: and marketpenetration
On June 11,2001, the President reaffirmed the United States' commitment to the 1992 United Deleted: the
Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)~a.n:d:its:C:~~§Y£o.~i:·:·. .... .. .. Deleted: desired
Deleted: R&D for
"
" .. " stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in Earth's atmosphere at a level that Deleted: y, and to R&Dfor """11.?~
would prevent dangerous anthropogenic-interference-with the climate-system.".... ·.. ·......
Deleted: intentioo topursue app~
Deleted: , signedbyPresident~
Deleted: Draftern Strategic ~~
I bh edits to cctp strategic plan draftS.doc
20f25
CEQ 013567
DRAFf DRAFf DRAFT
The President committed the United States to a goal of reducing the greenhouse gas intensity of
!he U.S. economy by 18% over the next decade. To meet this ambitious goal, the President
committed his Administration to pursue a broad range of activities to reduce growth of Deleted: Federal Govemmenl
greenhouse gas emissions. Th~se 'InCiudeip'atr oti'nltianves; 'one 'biidlmatedlange' science, and Deleted: straltgies
another on climate change technology de~dop'meri~'iiiat'togeiher'eiiibody'the'1oi-iger~temi .... Deleted:. He also launched
components of his overall policy approach.... .1 Deleted: to thisglobalccucern
Under the auspices of the CCCSTI, there are two multi-agency, operating elements:
In order to inform, guide and pace overall strategy, the Climate Change Science Program (CCSP)
conducts research on the Earth's climate and natural systems, and on the effects of related human
activity. The CCSP aims to advance understanding of key phenomena and reduce scientific
uncertainty. It hopes to illuminate the causes and effects of climate change, and meet the
information needs of decision-makers. The CCSP's Strategic Plan was issued on July 24, 2003.
The Climate Change Technology Program (CCTP) coordinates energy technology research and ,.. ' Deleted: is the technology counterpart
development acti vities across ten Federal R&D age~des'- . TIiii ccrr
'j's chartered 'outthe to 'carry 10 the CCSP. BothCCSP and CCTPare
desigoed as science and technology
following activities: (a) review the Federal climate change technology R&D portfolio; (b) complements. working together. The
conduct economic and technical analysis of options in the climate context (e.g., scenario and CCTP
limits analysis); (c) make recommendations on the portfolio; and (d) coordinate communication
among and within agencies. .' Deleted: Dn.ft. CCTP Strategic Plan
I
... - RevSA.doc
T • • •.••••••••••••••••••• • •••••••••••••••••••••••• _ .
The CCTP aims to accelerate the development of key energy technology options believed to be
important, ultimately, to achieving the President's $?aL :r?~ C.c;!~str!,,:es.'through .i.t.~ .~~P _ .., {Dele~: UNfCCC
bh edits to cctp strategic plan draft5.doc August 29, 2003 I
30f25
CEQ 013568
"
Although the Climate Change Technology Program (CCTP) Strategic Plan is a plan for Federal
leadership in a U.S. technology R&D program, it is set within a global contextand seeks broad
partnerships with others. At its core, the Plan embraces economic development as the principal
means by which the world's population will improveits condition, including the creation of
capital needed for investment in improved energyinfrastructure. The Plan presents a roadmap
for R&D to meet the critical challenges of the 21sf Century in a methodical way.
The Strategic Plan is not a policy document. Rather, it explores the potentialroles for Deleted:
innovation and technology'inrediidiiji the rfsks'6"( dim'ate'chan·ge.. I"i sets'foitii 'feli piifiHc Deleted: Noris it policy dependent,
commentand input, in an open and transparent process, a plan for Federal leadership of a long-
term, sustainedinvestment in a portfolio of energyresearch and developmentactivities. It is
aimed at spurring and coordinating innovation, expanding technical options,testing and Deleted: The UNFCCC goal of
stabilizingconcentrations of greenhouse
demonstrating feasibility and performance, and reducing costs. Accordingly, the Strategic Plan gases (GHGs)in the Earth'satmosphere,
: at any levelwithina rangeof plausible
lays out a long-term vision, goals and approaches to do this. The CCTP provides a means and a scenarios(e.g, 750ppm.650 ppm. 550
forum to effect U.S. leadership in this area, and encourage the formation of partnerships with ppm, 450 ppm). isa signifieanllong-tenn
others, domestically and internationally. challenge. To achievethisgoal
Deleted: Co,
1.6 Key Technical Considerations Deleted:
.' Deleted: in theatmospher
:
Two competingtrends set the stage for this climatechange technology challenge: (1) an Deleted: e
expected long-term decline in global greenhouse gas emissions that ultimately results .' Deleted: s
stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at some future level; and (2) an :
Deleted: s
expecteddramatic increase in global energy consumption; set the stage for the climate change ,".,' Deleted: ins
technology challenge. To reconcile these competing trends~..several ke)' technical considerations . '.
Deleted:
would have to be accommodated. These include the following: . ,/..::'::::
Deleted: -sparticularly carban-dioxide
(CO,). the most lmponaut of theglobal
• Greenhouse gases are removed slowly from the atmosphere and, dependingon the gas, may li.. warming sases-
pe.rsist for dec.ades' (n1~~h~n.e!· io. :c~n~~~~.~,( c~~b:o~ Ai~~I~er ~.~ :l:?~~er:: :i11:er~t?:re; :~~bl!i~aniin. / :,' Deleted: eventually peak, beginalong-
Qf.,GHG concentrations in the Earth's atmosphereimplies that, to prevent further /. term decline.and
accumiiilitionin ·tfie'atmoSPhere',' net" of
gi';biifeiili.isfons GHCJ"s'rnust iifti'mateiy 'lipi;roach .. Deleted: •
levels that are very low or nearly net-zero', ... ....... .. . .. .. Deleted: <">To effecta seamless
y,....... . ........•........... , - ..
transition \0 newenergy systems.
ullimatelywithnearlynet-zero'carbon
• This implies that the woi-ici 's energy'producing and consumini£iiec'iorii ·and· the' '3existing···· . ..
~
emissions,cost,performance. and
commercialandpublic acceptanceof
economicinfrastructure must, in the long-term, adopt advanced new GHG-free technologies futuretechnologies mustimprove
signi(u;antly,'
Deleted: <sp>Scienrific uncertainty
I "Net-zero" is a term of convenience indicating low or neaszero greenhouse gas emissions, when the full cycle is abeut the precise nature of the UNFCCC
goal rendersuncertain the timingand
taken into consideration. Due to losses in the system,.no fuel or process-can be.truly.t'neszero"... pace of actionsrequired. ,
StabilizationofGHG concentrations
, "GHG-Free" is term of convenience, meant to refer to a state or condition where the nelemissions of greenhouse Delet.¢: Drall CCTP Strategic Plan
gases COHOs) from the production or use of energy, including its total fuel cycle, the operation of other ancillary Rev5A.dac
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as capital assets are replaced or expanded. All nations must participate, recognizing that the
challenges posed by climate change are global in nature and global participation is required if
jhis transformation is to oC,cur witil
minimum economic d,i~~J?~()n:, Deleted: it is intheir economic intcrest
for
• The sheer scale of projected global energy demands requires that prospective energy systems
and sources be capable of substantial impacts in order to justify the large investments
required toward meeting the goals. A basic premise of this StrategicPlan is that prospective '~ Deleted: the
energy technology systems ~ius'i be iible 'te) contrlbiiie; 'In' cosi~effec'iive ways;'si.ibst.antiiii"""
amounts 'of miiig'at1i)n'e'ffeciS;' 'or'
tflat '\5; 'i'5' tid 00+' gygaton's more; '!iitegratlio
over' iii;; 2i '51'
Century, in order for them to be considered serious components ofa meaningful approach. { Deleted: plausible solution
Here, scale does matter: the table below denotes the scale of the challenge for several curr~nt
and projected energy technologies., ". ,{ Deleted: ,
• A seamless economic transition to new energy systems with nearly net·zero carbon emissions
will only occur if cost, performance, and commercial and public acceptance of future energy
technologies improves significantly.
activities, production processes,or consumption, maybe considered to be very low or nearzero, compared to typical
technologies or processes in use today.
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The eeTP Strategic Plan sets forth a vision and mission,replete with specific goals and Deleted: Withinthe ecntext ufthe
~proaches', based on the principles'sd'foith" by "£ne President:" "The 'CCTP;s vision:
that is, the'
U.s,-ntified, Uoited Nations Framework
Conventionon ClimateChange, t
desiredlong-term outcome of the program, is the attainmenton a global scale ofa technological
capability that will enable sustained economic growth while substantially reducing the risk of
potential climatechange, CCTP's mission, that is, the envisioned role for the CCTP, is to Deleted: humanity to meet the climate
changechallengesoFlbe21" Century
stimulatethe science and'techtioiogy enterpri"se' ot"ih"e"tjiiltecfSiates; "through coordinated}'eaeral
leadership of its own R&D programs, and in partnership with others, to achieve its vision
through the accelerated development of new energytechnologies with low or near-zero net
emissions of greenhouse gases: "........ " . ...... ".. ".."......... ".. Deleted: , climate-ceutraland
sustainable energyaDd GHGredueing
technologies
2.] Strategic Goals
Under the CeTP Strategic Plan, the CCTP agencies will pursue, as appropriate to their specific
agency missions, technology RD&D, aligned with the following four CCTP goals:
• Transition Technologies. Transition technologies are technologies that are not "GHG-
free", but capable of achieving significant reductions ofGHG emissionsin the near- and
mid-terms by significantly improving or displacing higher GHa-emitting technologies in
use today,
Formatted: Levell
Deleted: •
• Low-GHG.Electricity, Electricity will likelybe a premier energy cartier of any future Deleted: of All Forms of Energy
economy. Willie subs~nij"al"impj-o'''emeniS" iii et'flCiency"maY offset"as{gnH1c"ai-it "part'0'(' Deleted: -Free
expected future demand, increasing electrificationand growing demand would require Formatted: Font: NotItalic
additional supplies of electricity from sources with low or near-zero net GHG emissions,
,.-., - _ _ ~: ': .. _. Formatted: Font: NotItalic
Deleted: Draft crn Strategic Plan
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• Low-GHG Fuels. It is expected that any future economy will have a continuing need for { Deleted: -Free
portable, storabfdiieiii fodlea~ power,transport iiiid'mo'biiiiY:Hydrogen 'IS 'expected 'to
play an important role as an alternative to petroleum in its many uses for transportation.
co;: Capture and Sequestration. Innovative means for gaseous carbon-dioxide capture
from various single-point sources, both energy and non-energy sources, and directly from
the atmosphere, combined with its permanent sequestration - meaning C02 storage or
conversion to beneficial use without net GHG emissions to the atmosphere if
successful, could provide an important and pivotal technological advance.
• Low-GHG Feedstocks and Materials. The economic activities of any future economy, I. .{Deleted: ,Free
including those'oflieilVY Industry, 'miiiiti"g; manufactUriiig, agriculturearid construction,
will require feedstocks and other material inputs to production. The process for making
cement, for example, is a target for improvement.
Goal #4: Reduce tile Effect ofllon,-,cf?2PHG.splld of Non-Energy So.urces. 0f.~O:z.. . J. Deleted; MWgg(~
Deleted:
• Greenhouse Gases Other Than CO;:. Anthropogenic emissions of the many greenhouse Deleted: the Contributions /0 Glob4/
gases other than C02,' including methane, nitrous oxide, and several high-global Warming of
warming potential (GWP) gases, can contribute to global warming in significant ways, Deleted: Otherthan CO"
and may present more cost-effective mitigation opportunities in the near- to mid-term" Deleted: .
2.2 Approaches
The following approaches are envisioned to be employed by the CCTP to achieve the above-
stated goals:
~~'~fr~bii~'?J:~bCi:i~i~:~'~~~~~~ri~1:nf::~liitai~~h'~~~~:6~Il~Th~t~:4~~::~:1~;~::":I: :..
Deleted: Regarding the current state of
US. climatechangetechnologyR&D, I
Deleted: DraftCOP Strategic Plan
of this portfolio is evidenced, in part, by the Federal expenditures, amouiltltiitolU>bHiion'per··· RevSA.doc
year in related technology R&D. These investments are summarized in the technology sections Deleted: ofstabilizingGHG
concentrations
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ofthe Strategic Plan, and in more detail in nearly 100 Key Technology Profiles, accessible
separately at http://www.cctp.gov.
The dual challenges of addressing global Deleted: Underlying the applied R&D
."Provideguidanceon strengthening basic
~Hinaie diiirlge'an'd'proVidlitg' the' energy' for technology development is supporting
basic research.
research at universities and national
supply needed to meet future demand and
laboratories, including the development oj
sustain economic growth are easily among the
the advancedmitigation technologies that
largest and most complex endeavors in
offer the greatestpromise for low-cost
human history. Success will likely require
reductions ofgreenhouse gas emissions."
discoveries and innovations well beyond what
today's science and technology can offer.
Science must not just inform decisions, but provide the knowledge foundation on which new
technologies are built The CCTP framework will strengthen the basic research enterprise in the
national laboratories and academia so that they will be better prepared to find solutions and
create new opportunities. A strong and creative science program is necessary in several arenas:
• Fundamental discoveries can reveal new properties and phenomena that can be applied
to development of new energy technologies and systems. These can include ( Deleted: energyandcaroonproblems
breakthroughs In our underiitancHiig 'of bl()foglcai 'fu'nctf<ins;propertles' an'd'phenomena of
nanomaterials and structures, computing architectures and methods, plasma science, and
many more that currently are on the horizon.
• Understanding how large and complex systems function requires the ability to perform
predictive modeling and simulations, which incorporate a wide range of scenarios,
assumptions, and time and length scales. Science-based predictions can bring together Deleted:
fundamental experimentation, management oflarge and complex data sets, and . Deleted: DraftCCTP StrategicPlan
RevSA.doc
modeling and computational simulations to accelerate dramatically discovery and reduce .-
Deleted: climatechange
the time and cost of bringing new innovations to the marketp~a_~e:_ '- '.-' .
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Partnering facilitates the transfer of technology to the marketplace, once the technology R&D is
completed. Partnering can also help guide and improve the productivity of Federal research.
Private partners also benefit, as those who are engaged in Federal R&D gain rights to intellectual
property, which can help motivate further investment in the commercialization of technology.
Today, partnering is a common mode of operation in most Federal R&D programs, but this can
be improved. Opportunities exist for private participation in virtually every aspect of Federal
R&D. With respect to climate change technology R&D, the CCTP seeks to expand these
opportunities, in R&D planning, program execution, and technology demonstrations.
Given the global nature of the challenge, and in recognition of the contributions being made by
others abroad, the CCTP seeks to engage, government to government, other nations in large-
scale cooperative technology research initiatives. Such cooperation can prove to be important to . 1 . (Deleted:. ifnol essential. J
the success of U.S. technology development initiatives. In certain areas of climate change T .•
technology R&D, such as advanced wind turbine design and fusion energy research, many
advanced technical capabilities reside abroad, as well as in the United States.
The technology development can benefit from international cooperation, through the leveraging
of resources, partitioning of research activities addressing large-scale and multi-faceted complex
problems, and sharing of results and knowledge created. Under the auspices ofthe Cabinet-level
CCCSTI, the CCTP has contributed to several recent examples ofthis approach, including the
Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum (23 countries), the Nuclear Energy Generation IV
Initiative (9 countries) the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (19 countries), .1 ....{Deleted: ;
and the International H'ydrogeri'Inltiiitl"ve«(;'i·countrles)' ·.. .
Deleted: DraftCcrP Strategic Plan
T •••••••• • . • • • • • . • •. . . . _ ....
RevSA.doc
2.2.5 Support Cutting-Edge Technology Demonstrations
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Demonstrations of cutting-edge climate change technologies are an important aspect of the goal
of advancing climate change technologies. They can help fill the gap between the R&D phase of
a technology development project, where a concept may have been proven in principle or shown
to work in the laboratory, but is still uncertain, and the commercialization phase, where
substantial investment, motivated by clear and expected financial returns is required.
A wide array ofGHG sensors, measurement platforms, monitoring and inventorying systems,
and inference methods are needed to meet basic measurement needs. Sensors and systems need
to be designed within a holistic and hierarchal architecture to calibrate and verify emissions,
atmospheric concentrations and stored carbon sinks, at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. , -
D'eleted: •
Additionally, field experience is\equtreCi to help shape the 'path forT futUre' technology ,y , , . . Deleted: nd from global
development. Deleted: -
Deleted: perspectives, cascading down
The technological advances envisioned over the next century and beyond are complex, involving 10 national, regional, and locsl areas,
and
10 individual point sources
numerous subsystems and processes, ,';{th long ttmefrnmes'anifpote'ritiiif pllenomeniifiit'm'ust'
be understood. Emerging capabilities for the modeling, simulation, and prediction of complex Deleted: solutions required
integrated systems, involving experiments, analysis of large complex data sets, modeling, and
computational simulation will be invaluable in expeditiously determining the potential viability
of these systems. Investments in integrated assessment of engineered systems can dramatically
shorten the technology cycle and reduce life-cycle costs.
Deleted: DraftCCTP Strategic Plan
2.2.7 Support Exploratory Research-of Novel-Concepts .. , " ...... , RevSA,doc
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Apart from the existing basic research and applied R&D"p':~w.~:'!:s~. ~er~ .ar~ .?~Ii~::~.d. ~o .b~.a .I Deleted: and
number of areas that are innovative, novel, cross-cutting or integrative in concept to warrant Deleted: basic "search
further interest. However, many do not seem to fit easily into the existing frameworks of Federal
R&D funding or organizational hierarchies. These are areas where exploratory research ofnovel
concepts, pursued along unconventional lines of inquiry, might add significant value or uniquely
complement an otherwise robust Federal technology R&D program.
The eeTP Strategic Plan is a roadmap for . Energy Production- DOELed ( Deleted: flexible
.... Hydrogen" .....
charting investments in energy'tec!1noic)gyneeded Renewable fuels
to reduce the risk of climate change. It is flexible, Low Carbon Fuels
and will incOlporate new knowledge as it RenewablePower
becomes available from scientific research Nuclear FissionPower Deleted: responding to future
Nuclear PusionPower . . .. discoveries andpolicy changes. which
activities that are part ofjhe:C.~$:I\~~~/r(,tTI..... :...... . Low.Emissions.Fossil-Based-Power.. may-indeed an: Ukely to-arise from
energy• R&D projects carried out under the to.CCTP.po' ... • ~!~!ric. q~.4 ~.~cj.l.nft!\s.truclure (i..~ -,~q. Deleted: insights developed under
On-going evaluation of the CCTP R&D portfolio Enabling Elements)
'will be conducted so thatresources 'rrui)" be .... . ..... Energy Efficiency- DOELed
Deleted:
Deleted: dun.~
channeled to the most productive and promising Transportation
Deleted: R&D
areas. The Technology Working Groups (see Buildings
box) describes the current R&D priorities in Industry: Deleted: It isdesigoed toprovide
"what" and"when"flexibility to policy.
support of CCTP. Low GHG and EfficientProcesses makers within a strategic framework.
GHG Capture
Low or Net-ZeroGHG Materials
Federal support and leadership in basic and Low or Net-ZeroGHG Feedstocks
applied R&D is but one part of the overall effort
Basic Research- DOELed
needed to develop and commercialize climate Biotechnology
change technologies. The active participation of PhysicalSciences
industries and businesses alsois essential, not ComputationalSciences
only to accelerate technology development, but Environmental Sciences
also to give government policy-makers an Other Gases - EPA Led
appreciation of the business risks associated with Energy & Waste- Methane
commercializing new technologies. The CCTP Agric, Methaneand Other Gases Deleted: Sotoois the Deed to
.. 'High GWPGases : .
must also work internationally to ac~eieiaie" ... :1 Deleted: speed
. Nitrous-Oxide.... ···.· ..
development and diffusion of climate change .. Ozone Precursors& BlackCarbon
technologies, especially in developing countries,
where most of the growth in GHG emissions is Measuringand Monitoring - NASNNOAA Led
Sensorsand Platforms
expected in the future. Global Monitoring
Monitoring AreaSources
The process for developing and updating the Inventory Methods
GeTP Strategic Plan employs two
complementary analitrcal
to()ls: -. _ . .. , Sequestmtion-·USDA Led-. I. Deleted: • apartfrom thebroad-based
expertreviews. work.lhops andpublic
Geologic input,
...... Terrestrial
Deleted: Draft ern Strategic Plan
• Portfolio Analysis Ocean RevSA.doc
ProductiMaterials
• Scenario Analysis
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Deleted: R&Dportfolio analysiscan be
accomplisbed in. "",ety ofw.ys. Most
4 PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS attemptto assess theelements oflbe
portfoliowith respecllO S1l'1lteglc goals
and examine therobusmess of'the
.Indevel~pini?this.Strate$l'c Pia!!, six in~e.~~~e~cr 'Y?!.k!I1~ w.~~'ps r,~,,:iew.e~ .and ~v,~lu~t7d, the portfolio with respect torelevance.
potenJial contributions andlikelihood of
wide range of Federal climate change technology R&D activities and conducted a portfolio success, Undertilecrn
analysis of these activities, Each working group focused on a particiitar'coiTipori~tofihe" ,
as
..::.;:·e'-'-r·l;gy.......::'S.Ly"'St:.;:·e"'in~~ such ~~61~~C: ~~9~~S~t1:6~; :re.n.e~~~!~: ~~~~!': ~r:~y:4~~~~;: ~~. :..
"'o. :.v.::;era=-lI:.. ·en==
Formatted: Font: Italic
Deleted: portfolio
working groups gathered input from other ongoing R&D planning processes and held technical
workshops, inviting experts 'from tiiiiversities; iiidustr);,' nlitloiiai ·iliboratoiies;·noii~g6vemmeiitaJ Deleted: tile
that reflect the above considerations, and CCTP scenarios focus on: Deleted: • anduncertainties
consultation with experts in R&D planning, • Key Sector-Level Transitions Deleted:
technology, climate change, and economics, three • Key Technologies Deleted: today's
• Exploration of Technology Limits
technology scenarios emerged as a robust basis Deleted: The major dynamic shaping
• Technology Cost & Performance Goals each of theCCTPscenartos isa required
for climate change technology R&D planning. declinein greenhouse gasintensity,
lh. e.se.s,~e,na.t:i?,~ ,\Ve.r~, u.sed to .b~tter.llnd~rs~.r:d., ...GC:Ir. ~~~!1,l!f!~.S, !!X e.b,l!se~ .l!n:, whichultimately results in tile
stabilization of greenhouse gas
what technologies are likely to have the greatest • Analysis of>50 long-term energy concentrations. while globalenergy
value, when these technologies must be available, analyses, consumption is simultaneously
and at what scales they must be deployable. • Consultations with experts in R&D increasing, C<lnsequenlly, all the
planning, technology, climate change. scenarioswould reverse a century-locg
and economics. trendof increased energy cons~~
It is important to note that these scenarios are Deleted:
technology scenarios constructed'speclficiiiiy'to .. Deleted: T
aid in strategic R&D planning. They danot· .
Deleted: CCTP
define the policy methods that mayor may not be required to achieve the deployment of climate
Deleted: fundamentally
change technologies nor are they based upon specific stabilization levels. Rather the scenarios
Deleted: Dl1lft ccrr Strategic ~r~
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jlJuminate technological approaches that could be employed over a range ofpossibl~,future ,. Deleted: arcrobust in!hal they
energy' consumption levels and'a range'ofGHG emissions rducrlon 'goaiS while slmuItaneously Deleted: possiblestabilization levels
preserving global economicdevelopment. , • .... " . " .. , . '
., Deleted:
Deleted: The s=arill> .. ~ used10
lhe three technology scenariosare organized around the energy'sector andthe devdopment of betterunderstand wb.U Itchnologies are
likelyto havethe greatest leverageon the
low or near-zero GHG fechnolofi1es, as'a result anne dominant'role the'energy s'ect'or' j)iaysin, ,,\', challenge,whenthesettehnologies must
determining GH~sions: til afi'sceiuiiios, majiirgafns'are'assume'd in'eiiei-gy~effideiicy~' \, be availableiftheyare10 provide the
'~%~~g~i~:~:e~~~n:~~no~y:~tft-:;fit;?::dctot~~~:;:jl$ti
~~~t~~~~:~~£Jle::tint·:''~~,": '
greatest value.and at whitscalesthey
must be deployable.
,
Deleted: 1
in all scenarios as a fuel fora zero-net carbon transportation sector and, in the first scenario, to :t..:, 1
allow fossil fuels (e.g., hydrogen from sequestered coal) to serve small-scale, dispersed \t,:" <It> Technology5oeoanos'!
applications (e.g., residential fuel cells). Further,,al~ ~~7I1~ri,?S ,~~l:1~~J~~c,~~,f\1~, ~~n~,~~J!1~J.l,t of '1:\': , Formatted: Level 1
other greenhouse gases (e.g., methane and nitrous oxide)and'significant amounts of terrestrial \ \::'",
carbon sequestration. In all scenarios, global economic growth is sustained. " ',: ~', ',', : ~,;.:',
Deleted: <sp>
:-. Deleted: explorethecODditi0"t ~'l'10
T1' • • •• • • • • • • • • •• • •• • • ,. • • •. •.••• •• •• •.• ••••• • • ...."
, I',
~~Jg:~~~is1:g1;h~;'i{'~
Deleted: (
"
Deleted: demand
Technology Scenario #1:
::', Deleted: in 00 scenario is ov~
"Closing the Loop on Carbon"
':', Deleted: without
unconventional oil and gas sources (e.g., The Standard Suite of Technologies is '~, ',: :': Deleted: CO,pulled from the I ..:T151
Substantially Augmented by Engineered C02
methanehydratesand oil shale) becomes .Sequestration, which .Meets Key Technical"
,\ '.'<';':: Deleted: The morethattaD "'I ..• 16
important. ' Economic, and Environmental Goals ',: Deleted: Finally. i
Fossil-Based Systems (Fuels, Power, Chemicals) "\ Deleted:, worldwide,
While fossil fuels serve as the backbone of Remain the Backbone of the Energy System Formatted: Bullets and Numbering
the energysector throughout the century in Unconventional Oil & Gas become Economically
:\ Deleted: "ClosingtheLooponC7i7f
this scenario, they are not the only Viable
Solar, Wind and Bio-Fuels Industries Achieve ':: Deleted: e fIrSt
contributors. Non-fossil energy .Maturity . , .. ,.. ' .. .... .., ' :: Deleted:, is
technologies (s'uch' as'Wind, solar; b'iomas's, Hydrogen Becomes a Significant Energy Carrier ,: Deleted: bighpennanency
and other renewables, as well as nuclear The Full Potential of Conventional Oil & Gas is
~must contribute heavilyto meet the Realized \ Deleted:, alongwiththe even~
expectedincreased demand for energy, Dramatic Gains in Energy Efficiency Occur Deleted: dveat
§perg)' efficiencymust also playa Other GHGs Successfully Addressed Deleted: s
'{n'
substantiaiioie avoidfng tfte 'ne;;d' for'iiew ,....
Sustainable'Economic- Development and:
Stabilization Achieved
Deleted: The standard suiteof ~
energy supply, In fact, by 2100, the total '--_=::.:.:.::=:::..:.=:;;.;,;:.:::...... -J
Deleted: Thisstandanl suite in~
energy produced from renewables and Deleted: DraftCCTP Strategi~
nuclear.coupled with.savings rrom efficiency:couldexceed,-in. si~e,.cuR'e?t ·annual world energy.." ": Deleted: today
production" Thus."t~ls scenano assumes not Just success for fossil fuels, It also represents ' '
. . . . • • . . • . •'t . . . . . . . • . _. . • . . • , • • . • • . • • • . • • . . • • . . . . . . . . • . • . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . • . . . . . .
Deleted: "Closing theLoopon Carbon"
Deleted: is
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success for renewable energY,. nuclear po\V.er! and eI1;~~y'.e~c~~cy:. In ~dditi~~", Jerrest.J:ial Deleted: s
sequestration plays an important supporting role, particularly early in the century. Deleted: abatement of other greenbcuse
gam is erirical, and
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--I-' ,{ Formatted: Levell
6 GlliDING FRAMEWORK FOR PORTFOLIO DEVELOPMENT
The entire CCfP planning process; portfolio analyses, workshops, expert consultations, and
scenario analyses, resulted in a general guiding framework for the CCTP Strategic Plan and its
accompanying portfolio of R&D investments, including:
Diversification ofthe climate change technology R&D portfolio is important because (I) the
magnitude of the challenge makes it extremely unlikely that a single technology could meet the I, (Deleted: classor
challenge on its own, (2) a diversified portfolio is a solid hedge agai~st'tiieposslbiliiY'that some
advanced technologies may not be as successful as hoped, ~ others in the portfolio could "I. ,( Deleted: as
exceed expectations, and (3) a robust, diversified science and technolog"y"c'apabiHiY' will maintain
the flexibility to respond to, and to assimilate, pertinent information from other countries,
institutions, or areas of scientific inquiry.
Investments in the global portfolio can be sequenced over time. Thus, supporting a robust
portfolio does not necessarily mean that everything must be done immediately. Natural
sequencing of R&D should be based upon (I) the expected times when different technologies
would be available and cost-effective; (2) the need to quickly resolve critical uncertainties and, { Deleted: need to
are'
~y cases, to hold back significant con'tlngent're'se'arch'untifs'uch' iin'ce'rtaliiiil~s' resolved;
and (3) the need to demonstrate early the feasibility of determinant technologies. (For example,
will geologic carbon sequestration be available and cost-effective? How would this determine the
choice of subsequent investme.nts?)., Deleted: Themost overarching
uncertainty identified by the scenario
analysis is thetechnical viability of
6.3 Target Technology with Gigaton-Scale Potential geologicsequestration-this mustbe a
highnear-term priority
In terms of expected future energy demand and emissions reduction goals~ ,th.e >s~~le of the , .1 Deleted: therequired levels of
mitigation
challenge calls for science and technology research that focuses not on incremental
improvements in technologies with limited potential for cost-effective, large-scale Deleted: sheer
commercialization, but on technologies or scientific explorations with the potential to deliver
100+ gigatons of mitigation over the coming century. This recommendation applies not just
across technology programs or technology areas, but also within programs or technology areas.
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term research should include crosscutting "technology systems analysis" to explore the
characteristics and implications of future technology systems.
All three scenarios presume• some form of a transition to alternative fuels-most likely biofuels
---1', • • . . • • . • • • _ . . . •
'S" ••••••••••".• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • . • • • • • • • • • • • • - • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
Deleted: 10a
or hydrogen-in the transportation sector. Further, in a sequestration-heavy future, alternative Deleted: •
fuels may be required to carry energy from sequestered fossil energy plants to distributed Deleted: meeting ihe UNFCCC and
applications. President's long-term goalwill ultimately
require
Science and technology research is not a one-time endeavor: the results of today's research
largely shape the direction and effectiveness of future research. There is tremendous value to be
gained by resolving.uncertainties that lie at the heart of climate change technology research. In
particular, for many technologies, the potential for affordable gigaton-scale impacts is not well
understood or is the source of contentious debate. Issues of potential barriers and physical
limits-for example, limits on affordable uranium for nuclear fission or limits on water and land
constraints for biomass and other renewables--must receive serious attention if we are to
continually improve the targeting, and hence the effectiveness, of our science and technology
research.
The CCTP Working Groups undertook a review of their respective technology areas, assessed , { Deleted: <sp>
the currentstate o(the Federa! R&D portfolio, anchilade recoin"menaatl'ons forhigh 'pnontY'
R&D and supporting strategic research. The reviews were further informed by the scenario
analyses. Preliminary findings were exposed to expert technical criticism at a series of
workshops held in the Fall of2003.
Given competing fiscal priorities, not all climate change technology R&D ~be funded at one Deleted: N
time. The long-term nature of the ~haileng'e'stig'gests'..,.'that'sus"tained "iilVi;stm'etit~- ri!' R&b may be . Deleted: is requiredto
required, at least for the next several decades. With the current level of Federal investment at Deleted: , to lbe coolrary,
about $1:6 billion per' year" 'augmented by 'in~eStments the' private sector'from other"rlations; Mer Deleted: indefinitely
there is a large opportuniJ 'foor tecnno'logy' an°(niinovatlCiil'-" , .'" ",."" ""0."""",.. '" 0 '" ,
CEQ 013581
DRAFf DRAFT DRAFf
Anotherconsideration is about impacts, both positiveand negative. If'a technology were . {Deleted: pro and con
deployedat levels that wouldmake a difference, what would be th~ ciinsequeiices 'i"rnpacts of 'or
the full-cycle of technology related required activities? If some technologies were found not able
to meet these criteria, then would it not be best to find out earlier rather than later, as other
strategieswould need to be developed and deployed? Finally, what are the technical barriers to
progressand how might these be addressed by supporting basic and strategic research?
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• OtherGases. TED (Methane, Nitrous Oxide)
Wind. Low wind speed, high efficiency turbines, in order to expand available resources and
deployment capacity" . ( Deleted: pplicabilil)
SolarPower. Basic research into new PV materials, concepts, and production methods with
a goal of significant cost reduction., . { Deleted: •
I. Carbon capture. Focus on technologies to extract or capture carbon dioxide from a diversity
of flue gas streams (industrial and powerplants).
I. Biomass, Develop next generation bio-fuels and bio-power technology (begin developing
complements to conventional bio-ethanol; bio-products are niche technology).
For complex problems that span a century time frame and beyond, solutions require that science
and technology work together. Knowledge is required to design and develop the technological
solutions and to provide an intellectual framework to assess the long-term impacts of deployment
on the massive scales necessary. Universities and national laboratories, with their extraordinary
capabilities for discovery and problem solving, are particularly well positioned to conduct basic
research in these areas. Numerous recent revolutionary advances promise critical contributions to
meeting the global energy challenge.
The following are broad areas of suppoQ:i!!g .~~!l.t.~~<? ~~_~~.~~~.h!. jl). a~d!~91) ..t9 .~h.e.!'M._eljn.e: ~.f. . Deleted: Dr.lfl CCTP Strategic Plan
RevSA.doc
ongoing basic research, identified as important to the technical progress of the above-mentioned
applied technology R&D areas, and to their deployment.
CEQ 013583
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• Physical Sciences. Physical sciences include the chemical sciences, materials sciences,
physics, geosciences, and nanosciences. Nanoscale science, for example, cuts across and
underpins many other sciences, affording great potential for innovation in energy storage,
fuel cells, biomimetics, tribology, and other areas. Photochemical processes can potentially
produce hydrogen. Photo-conversion technologies are needed that could lead to direct and
potentially efficient production of fuels, materials, and chemicals, as well as electrical power.
Studies of catalysts, separation methods, and combustion processes underlie many potentially
useful technologies. Progress continues in fusion energy and the next large-scale step would
be to explore the behavior of"buming plasmas," self-heated by the ongoing fusion process.
• Computational Sciences. Many recent advances in science and technology have been made
possible by the rapid increase in the power of computers. Improvements in computational
sciences are needed for: modeling combustion; improved software and controls for advanced
electric power grids; advanced models for evaluation of C02 in ocean environments and
understanding of the ocean biological pump; improved models of photovoltaic and other
materials; improved models of the aerodynamics of wind turbines and other fluid dynamics
processes; computer assisted simulations of proposed advanced components and energy
systems; software expert systems and intelIigent agents; and analysis of urban/suburban land
processes and parameters that affect and contribute to the carbon cycle. Modeling and
simulation are critical to rapidly engineering new properties and phenomena into useful
processes and products.
CEQ 013584
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Note: Following the Front Piece, there will appear 28 reports, 4-6 pages apiece, one for each
major technology area (e.g., hydrogen, geologic sequestration, nuclearfission, etc.) identified
earlier under the Working Group structure (page 11). Each report will summarize the results of
the Working Groups' portfolio reviews and provide more detail, in more depth, than is possible
in the Front Piece, Each report will follow a commonly formatted series ofsubject areas. These
areas include the following:
T ••• •
Deleted: D12ft eCTPStrategic Plan
RevSA.doc
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At a total of200 pages, the these reports will constitute the main body ofthe eeTP Strategic
Plan, Each report will reference.for those seekingfurther detail. a set of 100 Key Technology
Profiles. supporting papers, and R&D program plans, posted on the eeTP WebSite,
CEQ 013587
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Table of Contents for the Working Group Reports Section •I· {Fonnatted: Levell
8.3 Sequestration
8.3./ Geologic
8.3.2 Terrestrial
8.3.3 Ocean
8.3.4 Product/Materials
T. .._
Deleted: DraftCCTP Strategic Plan
RevSA.doc
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Draft CCTP Strategic Plan Rev5A.doc
Page 2: [2] Deleted HANNEGAN_B 8/29/03 3:33 PM
"As we analyze the possibilities, we will be guided by several basic principles.
Our approach must be consistent with the long-term goal ofstabilizing
greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. Our actions should be
measured as we learn morefrom science and build on it,.. We will act, learn,
and act again, adjusting our approaches as science advances and technology
evolves. Our Administration will be creative. "
President George W. Bush, June 11,
2001
To illustrate the scale of challenge, consider that in 2000, world energy consumption was
approximately 400 exajoules. Fossil fuels provide over three-fourths of this. Because
energy from fossil fuels is the largest source of anthropogenic C02, a long-term decline
in greenhouse gas emissions that results in "net zero" emissions cannot realistically occur
absent an eventual reduction in freely-vented C02 emissions from fossil fuels. The pace
and extent of the reduction depends upon a number of variables, including the mix of
fossil fuel types being consumed, the success at abating other greenhouse gases beyond
CO2, the extent to which terrestrial sequestration is successful, and other factors.
In addition, consider that in order to support continued global economic growth, as well
as meet a number of other important energy-dependent challenges, most energy analysts
expect global energy consumption to rise significantly throughout the century. For
CEQ 013589
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DRAFT
STRATEGIC PLAN
DRAFT
August 15, 2003
CEQ 013590
·.
Strategic Plan
Climate Change Technology Program
Overview (Front Piece)
"America's the leader in technology and innovation. We all believe technology offers great
promise to significantly reduce emissions. "
President George W. Bush, June 11, 2001
1 OVERVIEW
Solutions to many of the critical challenges facing 21 st Century civilization, including water,
food production, preserving the environment, improving sanitation and human health,
eliminating poverty, sustaining economic growth and expanding opportunities for less developed
regions, are made more possible by affordable, reliable and secure energy. Energy is not just the
handmaiden of prosperity, but a key enabler for technical progress. An energy-rich global
community can better pursue lasting and equitable solutions.
Forecasts of long-term energy demand suggest multi-fold increases in world energy consumption
during the 21 51 Century, driven by expanding population and economic development. Ifworld
gross domestic product (GDP) were to grow at but a modest rate of one percent per year for the
next 100 years, assuming current trends in technology improvement and changing energy-use
patterns, energy demand would be expected to nearly triple by the end of the Century. Ifworld
GDP were to grow, instead, at a rate of two percent per year, which would be more in line with
long-run trends, world energy demand would.likely increase to more than seven-fold that of
current levels. Stnictural changes in economic activity and accelerated energy-efficiency
improvement may slow, but will not eliminate these growth trends. Energy demand in the
particular form of electricity, a strongly productive and versatile energy carrier, is expected to
grow much faster than energy use in general.
Commercial energy supply today is closely tied to the combustion of fossil fuels, namely, coal,
oil and natural gas. Long-term forecasts of anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (C02) to
the Earth's atmosphere, arising primarily from the combustion of fossil fuels, expect emissions
to rise in accord with energy demand. The challenge facing those who seek to slow the growth
in C02 emissions, as well as the emissions of other greenbouse gases, or eventually to reduce
such emissions to low levels, is to imagine what is possible and explore the best ways to
proceed.
Although the dual challenge of growing energy supply and reducing emissions may seem
daunting, three factors provide some basis for optimism. First, it is a long-term challenge,
CEQ 013591
·,
requiring sustained leadership for decades. Its long-term nature allows the process of innovation
and technology advancement, accelerated by investments in research and development (R&D),
to playa key role in influencing the future.
Second, most of the national and global energy infrastructure required by the end of the Century
to support the envisioned levels of growth does not exist today. The technologies used as the
foundation for building this infrastructure, to be built over the coming decades and throughout
the rest of the Century, for better or worse, will profoundly shape global economic growth and,
importantly, the level at which society continues to emit greenhouse gases. What technologies
the global marketplace chooses as the foundation for this future will have far more effect on
greenhouse gas concentrations in the Earth's atmosphere in the future, than how we operate the
energy infrastructure of today. These technologies can be significantly influenced by innovation
and technology leadership.
Third, the modern world has a long record of technological achievement on a grand scale, from
agricultural production to national security, from exploration of space to the curing of dreaded r~
diseases. This record of invention and progress provides a basis for~timism with regards V
to the long-term challenge for climate change. Similarly focused and sustained technology R&D
efforts can be expected to produce similar results over time, which could enable the world to .
reduce greenhouse gas emissions significantly, contributing to the United ~lfttions' goal of ~ u~~
stabilizing atmospluwk concentratioas of greenhouse gases at aeeeptable levels. ® fv~
r-~~
1.3 Leadership Role for the United States
"As we analyze the possibilities, we will be guided by several basic principles. Our
~~
~.
approach must be consistent with the long-term goal ofstabilizing greenhouse gas
concentrations in the atmosphere. Our actions should be measured as we learn more
Jrom science and build on it ... We will act, learn, and act again, adjusting our
approaches as science advances and technology evolves. Our Administration will be
creative. "
President George W. Bush, June 11,2001
As one of the world's top technology developers, the United States faces a unique opportunity to
be a leader in the re-invention of the global energy system. The world will need~deeQ, demand
the development and~deployment of a new generation of clean energy
technologies that draw upon the world's diverse and abundant energy resources. The Nation has
an opportunity to create the technology for a cleaner and more efficient electricity industry that
achieves low or near net-zero emissions. The Nation has an opportunity to revolutionize the
transportation sector through the creation of a new generation of vehicles that uses advanced,
clean fuels. The Nation has an opportunity to revolutionize the way in which it consumes energy
in its homes and businesses. Making wise choices now in the development of advanced energy
technologies will help ensure ~dramati9 gains in economic development~d
simultaneously reduce the potential imparon the environment. Seizing these opportunities,
lo4-~
Draft CCTP Strategic Plan Rev5.wpd August 15,2003 -- Page 2 of 22
CEQ 013592
" .
however, will not be easy. It will require a bold new approach to R&D for energy technology,
and to R&D for many other climate change related and environmental technologies.
On June 11,2001, the President reaffirmed the United States' intention to pursue approaches
consistent with the goal of the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC), signed by President George Herbert Walker Bush, and ratified by the United States
Senate in 1992, that is, to achieve:
" .... stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in Earth's atmosphere at a level that
would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system."
The President committed the Federal Government to pursue a broad range of strategies to reduce ~
growth of greenhouse gas emissions. He also launched a pair of initiatives, one on climate
change science, and another on climate change technology development, that together embody
the longer-term components of his overall policy approach to this 10 em.
lo~-~
On February 14, 2002, the President established a Cabinet-level ommr ee on Climate Change
Science and Technology Integration (CCCSTI) to galvanize Federal leadership in this area. The
CCCSTI is charged with developing innovative approaches, in accordance with a number of
basic principles. These approaches should: (1) be consistent with the long-term goal of
stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere (2) be measured, as we learn more
from science and build, on it; (3) be flexible to adjust to new information and take advantage of
new technology; (4) ensure continued economic growth an prosperity; (5) pursue market-based
incentives and spur technological innovation; and (6) be ba ed on global participation, including
developing countries. The Committee is chartered to provi e recommendations to the President
on matters concerning climate change science and techno gy; address related Federal R&D
funding issues; and coordinate with the Office of Mana ment and Budget on implementing its
recommendations. aJ-Ci.. lev-e(.1Nk vJo....1..:L~ve.rJ- ~~
Under the auspices of the CCCSTI, there are two multi-agency, operating elements: Ww~v-A-t\...;
~~~
The Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) S'1S~
The Climate Change Technology Program (CCTP)
In order to inform, guide and pace overall strategy, the Climate Change Science Program
(CCSP) conducts research on the Earth'"t;'11ate and natural systems, and on the effects of
related human activity. The CCSP aims to advance understanding of key phenomena and reduce
scientific uncertainty. It hopes to illuminate the causes and effects of climate change, and meet
the information needs of decision-makers. The CCSP's Strategic Plan was issued on July 24,
2003.
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The Climate Change Technology Program (CCTP) is the technology counterpart to the CCSP.
Both CCSP and CCTP are designed as science and technology complements, working together.
The CCTP coordinates research across ten Federal R&D agencies. The CCTP is chartered to
carry out the following activities: (a) review the Federal climate change technology R&D
portfolio; (b) conduct economic and technical analysis of options in the climate context (e.g.,
scenario and limits analysis); (c) make recommendations on the portfolio; and (d) coordinate
communication among and within agencies.
The CCTP aims to accelerate the development of key technology options believed to be
important, ultimately, to achieving the UNFCCC goal. The CCTP strives, through its R&b
programs, to create or improve key technologies, enhance their performance and reduce their
cost. If successful, such technologies, it is hoped, will eventually provide the means for a
smooth transition tOfew energy systems that emit little or no greenhouse gases.
~l'"~ <!fh'~ o(
Although the Climate Change Technology Program (CCTP) Strategic Plan is a plan for Federal
leadership in a U.S. technology R&D program, it is set within a global context and seeks broad
partnerships with others. At its core, the Plan embraces economic development as the principal
means by which the world's population will improve its condition, including the creation of
capital needed for investment in improved energy infrastructure. The Plan presents a roadmap
for R&D to meet the critical challenges of the 21 st Century in a methodical way.
The Strategic Plan is not a policy document. Nor is it policy dependent. Rather, it explores the
potential roles for innovation and technology. It sets forth for public comment and input, in an
open and transparent process, a plan for Federal leadership of a long-term, sustained investment
in a portfolio of research and development actiyities. It is aimed at spurring and coordinating
innovation, expanding technical options, testing and demonstrating feasibility and performance,
and reducing costs. Accordingly, the Strategic Plan lays out a long-term vision, goals and
approaches to do this. The CCTP provides a means and a forum to effect U.S. leadership in this
area, and encourage the formation of partnerships with others, domestically and internationally.
The UNFCCC goal of stabilizing concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the Earth's
atmospherecat aB)' level witliirra range of plaUSible scenarios (e.g., i5V pplIl, 6050 ppm, 550 ppm,
450 l'13m;1.is a significant long-term challenge. To achieve this goal, several key technical
considerations would have to be accommodated. These include the following:
~N'i..;~ CL~'"'"'::J
CO 2 in the atmosphere persists for GPturies or lollgeP. Stabilizing GHG concentrations in
the Earth's atmosphere implies that net global emissions of GHGs--particularly carbon-
dioxide (C02) , the most important of the global warming gases - must eventually peak,
CEQ 013594
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begin a long-term decline, and ultimately approach levels that are very low or nearly net-
zero. .
eco~
To effect a seamles~Jransition to new energy systems, ultimately with nearly net-zero'
carbon emissions, cost, performance, and commercial and public acceptance of future
technologies must improve significantly.
1.~}J.l~
I "Net-zero" is a term of convenience indicating low or near-zero greenhouse gas emissions, when the full cycle is
taken into consideration. Due to losses in the system, no fuel or process can be truly "net-zero".
l "OHO.Free" is term of convenience, meant to refer to a state or condition where the net emissions of greenhouse
gases (OHOs) from the production or use of energy, including its total fuel cycle, the operation of other ancillary
activities, production processes, or consumption, may be considered to be very low or near zero, compared to typical
technologies or processes in use today.
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Goal #1: Transform Energy End-use, by Improving Efficiency' a.ntfFuel-use SWitching~ Qu.t~_
') .J'\Ie.l~.
GHG-Free Infrastructure and Equipment. Highly efficient and well-matched .
r..
equipment can significantly reduce OHO emissions, avoid other lcinQs-of environmental ~ - Lt-~
emissions, and reduce equipment life-cycle costs for delivering the desired products and
services.
Transition Technologies. Transition technologies are technologies that are not "OHO-
free", but capable of achieving significant reductions of OHO emissions in the near-
and mid-terms by significantly improving or displacing higher OHO-emitting
technologies in use today.
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Goal #3: Capture and Sequester C02J by Direct and Indirect Methods.
co] Capture and Sequestration. Innovative means for gaseous carbon-dioxide capture
from various single-point sources, both energy and non-energy sources, and directly
from the atmosphere, combined with its permanent sequestration - meaning CO 2
storage or conversion to beneficial use without net GHO emissions to the atmosphere -
if successful, could provide an important and pivotal technological advance.
Goal #4: Mitigate the Contributions to Global Warming afGHGs Other than C02J and of
Non-EnerfJY ~ource$ srco,
~t-.~ fW"~ f~
Greenhouse Gases Other Than CO]. Anthropogenic emissions oftbe many greenhouse
• 4
gases other than CO 2, including methane, nitrous oxide, and several high-global
warm~g potential (OWP) gases, can cOI;tribute to global.ww:ming in significant ways} ~ o-!-
~ ~ c.o~!-~ e;j~..e. ,.,....~J~ ~~ ...
-tf..a., ~- -/.:. ,........k-~.
2.2 Approaches
The following approaches are envisioned to be employed by the CCTP to achieve the above-
stated goals:
Regarding the current state of U.S. climate change technology R&D, the Federal Government is
engaged in a wide range of ongoing research activities that directly or indirectly contribute to the ~-~
goal of stabilizing GHO concentrations. TIll" breadth and depth of this portfolio is evidenced, in
part, by the Federal expenditures, amounting to $1.6 billion per year in related technology R&D.
These investments are summarized in the technology sections of the Strategic Plan, and in more
detail in nearly lOa Key Technology Profiles, accessible separately at http://www.cetp.gov.
CEQ 013597
"
Understanding how large and complex systems function requires the ability to perform
predictive modeling and simulations, which incorporate a wide range of scenarios,
assumptions, and time and length scales. Science-based predictions can bring together
fundamental experimentation, management oflarge and complex data sets, and modeling
and computational simulations to acceleratet9ticallY discovery and reduce the time and
cost of bringing new innovations to the mar etpl ceo
1M! ~
Developing new ~e eh~echnologies and systems requires an abundance of
intellectual talent well versed in the concepts and technologies of modem science -
workforce development and education is therefore a key role for the science enterprise.1!rey-
must also be awtlFe aChe"".. bt:lsmesses ornate and make decisions to eBSHfB that the
technologies they create tY0 adopted in the marketplace.
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"
Partnering facilitates the transfer of technology to the marketplace, once the technology R&D is
completed. Partnering can also help guide and improve the productivity of Federal research.
Private partners also benefit, as those who are engaged in Federal R&D gain rights to intellectual
property, which can help motivate further investment in the commercialization of technology.
Today, partnering is a common mode of operation in most Federal R&D programs, but this can
be improved. Opportunities exist for private participation in virtually every aspect of Federal
R&D. With respect to climate change technology R&D, the CCTP seeks to expand these
opportunities, in R&D planning, program execution, and technology demonstrations.
Given the global nature of the challenge, and in recognition of the contributions being made by
others abroad, the CCTP seeks to engage, government to government, other nations in large-
scale cooperative technology research initiatives. Such cooperation can prove to be important-if"?"
_not Gssellt~to the success of U.S. technology development initiatives, In certain areas of
climate change technology R&D, such as advanced wind turbine design and fusion energy
research, many advanced technical capabilities reside abroad, as well as in the United States.
The technology development can benefit from international cooperation, through the leveraging
of resources, partitioning of research activities addressing large-scale and multi-faceted complex
problems, and sharing of results and knowledge created. Under the auspices of the Cabinet-level
CCCSTI, the CCTP has contributed to several recent examples of this approach, including the
Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum (23 countries), the Nuclear Energy Generation IV .IJ
Initiative (9 countries); and the Internat'r.v.l Hydrogen Initiative (61 countries). a)s 0 l -r~r--...)
L 1v~..:,.."",
2.2.5 Support Cutting-Edge Technology Demonstrations '--_~_'(!A,. ~ '-(JlAJ'. .
Demonstrations of cutting-edge climate change technologies are an important aspect of the goal
of advancing climate change technologies. they can help fill the gap between the R&D phase of
CEQ 013599
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a technology development project, where a concept may have been proven in principle or shown
to work in the laboratory, but is still uncertain, and the commercialization phase, where
substantial investment, motivated by clear and expected financial returns is required.
A wide array of GHG sensors, measurement platforms, monitoring and inventorying systems,
and inference methods are needed to meet basic measurement needs. Sensors and systems need
to be designed within a holistic and hierarchal architecture to calibrate and verify emissions,
atmospheric concentrations, stored carbon sinks, and from global-scale perspectives, cascading
down to national, regional, and local areas, and to individual point sources. Additionally, field
experience is required to help shape the path for future technology development.
~~'~
The technological S6MietIs..;=equired over the next century and beyond are complex, involving
numerous subsystems and processes, with long time frames and potential phenomena that must
be understood. Emerging capabilities for the modeling, simulation, and prediction of complex
integrated systems, involving experiments, analysis of large complex data sets, modeling, and
computational simulation will be invaluable in expeditiously determining the potential viability
of these systems. Investments in integrated assessment of engineered systems can dramatically
shorten the technology cycle and reduce life-cycle costs.
Apart from the existing applied R&D and basic research programs, there are believed to be a
number of areas that are innovative, novel, cross-cutting or integrative in concept to warrant
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further interest. However, many do not seem to fit easily into the existing frameworks of Federal
R&D funding or organizational hierarchies. These are areas where exploratory research of novel
concepts, pursued along unconventional lines
of inquiry, might add significant value or
uniquely complement an otherwise robust TECHNOLOGY WORKlNG GROUPS
Federal technology R&D program.
Energy Production - DOE Lead
Hydrogen
3 STRATEGIC PLANNING PROCESS Renewable fuels
Low Carbon Fuels
The CCTP Strategic Plan is a flexible Renewable Power
Nuclear Fission Power
roadmap for responding to future discoveries
Nuclear Fusion Power
and policy changes, which may--indeed are Low Emissions Fossil-Based Power
likely too-arise from insights developed under Electric Grid and Infrastructure (i.e, CCTP
the CCSP and during eeTP R&D. It is Enabling Elements)
designed to provide "what" and "when"
Energy Efficiency - DOE Lead
flexibility to policy-makers within a strategic Transportation
framework. On-going evaluation of the Buildings
eeTP R&D portfolio will be conducted so Industry:
that resources may be channeled to the most Low GHG and Efficient Processes
productive and promising areas. The GHGCapture
Low or Net-Zero GHG Materials
Technology Working Groups (see box) Low or Net-Zero GHG Feedstocks
describes the current R&D priorities in
support of CCTP. Sequestration - USDA Lead
Geologic
Federal support and leadership in basic and Terrestrial
Ocean
applied R&D is but one part of the overall ProductlMaterials
effort needed to develop and commercialize
climate change technologies. The active Other Gases - EPA Lead
participation of industries and businesses also Energy & Waste· Methane
Agric. Methane and Other Gases
is essential, not only to accelerate technology
High GWP Gases
development, but also to give government Nitrous Oxide
policy-makers an appreciation of the business Ozone Precursors & Black Carbon
risks associated with commercializing new
technologies. So too is the need to work Measuring and Monitoring - NASA/NOAA Lead
Sensors and Platforms
internationally to speed development and
Global Monitoring
diffusion of climate change technologies, Monitoring Area Sources
especially in developing countries, where Inventory Methods
most of the growth in GHG emissions is
expected in the future. Basic Research - DOE Lead
Biotechnology
Physical Sciences
The process for developing and updating the Computational Sciences
CCTP Strategic Plan, apart from the broad- Environmental Sciences
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based expert reviews, workshops and public input, employs two complementary analytical tools:
Portfolio Analysis
Scenario Analysis
4 PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS
R&D portfolio analysis can be accomplished in a variety of ways. Most attempt to assess the
elements of the portfolio with respect to strategic goals and examine the robustness of the
portfolio with respect to relevance, potential contributions and likelihood of success. Under the
CCTP, six interagency working groups reviewed and evaluated the Federal climate change
technology R&D portfolio and conducted the portfolio analyses. Each focused on a particular
aspect of the climate change technology challenge, such as geologic sequestration, renewable
power, hydrogen. The working groups gathered other input from ongoing R&D planning
processes and held technical workshops, inviting experts from universities, industry, national
laboratories, non-governmental organizations, and others to examine and critique ongoing work.
The working groups conducted technology portfolio analyses. Among their tasks were to
develop a long-term vision, characterizing the role, desired end-state and contribution for their
technology area. They identified: key technologies and developed profiles, describing current
and priority R&D areas; collaborative activities with industry and international stakeholders;
technology transfer and commercialization activities; and supporting basic research needs
technological progress. The results are presented in the body of this Strategic Plan (Section 8).
5 SCENARIO ANALYSES
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To illustrate the scale of challenge, consider that in 2000, world energy consumption was
approximately 400 exajoules. Fossil fuels provide over three-fourths of this. Because energy
from fossil fuels is the largest source of anthropogenic CO2, a long-term decline in greenhouse
gas emissions that results in "net zero" emissions cannot realistically occur absent an eventual
reduction in freely-vented CO 2 emissions from fossil fuels. The pace and extent of the reduction
depends upon a number of variables, including the mix of fossil fuel types being consumed, the
success at abating other greenhouse gases beyond CO 2, the extent to which terrestrial
sequestration is successful, and other factors.
In addition, consider that in order to support continued global economic growth, as well as meet
a number of other important energy-dependent challenges, most energy analysts expect global
ener consumption to rise significant! throu out the century. or examp e, e majority of
the scenarios om e C's Special Report on Emission Scenarios estimate that energy
demand will increase from the current level of approximately 400 exajoules to between 800 and
2200 exajoules by the end of the cen ypically, these forecasts already include
I)( [extraor mary Improvements tn goal energy intensity (i.e., reduced energy per unit of GDP)
~vf..:;:' through energy efficiency and structural changes in the global economy.
...r-t...
,feY~J These two considerations: (1) a long-term decline in greenhouse gas emissions that ultimately
S~ \-" results in net-zero emissions; and (2) an expected dramatic increase in global energy
bJ-r;/ consumption; set the stage for the climate change technology challenge. While significant
~~ quantities of projected energy consumption will almost certainly be met by the accelerated
development and diffusion of more efficient energy technologies and energy conservation, the
~V· simple fact remains that global energy
~ CCTP Technology Scenarios
consumption will likely increase many-fold
by the end of the century. Thus,
CCTP scenarios focus on: significantly greater quantities of carbon-free
Key Sector-Level Transitions energy than socie~ realizes must come
Key Technologies on-line over the co ing decades.
Exploration of Technology Limits I\O.,.J
Technology Cost & Performance Goals
Based on a review of more than fifty long-
CCTP scenarios are based on: term energy analyses in the open scientific
Analysis of>50 long-term energy analyses, literature that reflect the above
Consultations with experts in R&D planning, considerations, and consultation with experts
technology, climate change, and economics.
in R&D planning, technology, climate
change, and economics, three technology
scenarios emerged as a robust basis for climate change technology R&D planning.
The CCTP scenarios are fundamentally technology scenarios constructed specifically to aid in
strategic R&D planning. They do not define the policy methods that mayor may not be required
to achieve the deployment of climate change technologies nor are they based upon specific
stabilization levels. Rather the scenarios are robust in that they illuminate technological
approaches that could be employed over a range of possible future energy consumption levels
CEQ 013603
The three technology scenarios explore the conditions under which three differing energy
technology portfolios could buttress an economically prosperous, net-zero greenhouse gas future.
The scenarios are organized around the energy sector and zero-carbon technologies, as a result of
the dominant role the energy sector plays in addressing the climate challenge. However, primary
energy is by no means the only component of the scenarios, and several themes also run across
all three. In all scenarios, major gains, indeed some might say heroic gains, are assumed in
energy-efficiency (both production and demand). Alternative energy carriers of one type or
another (e.g., hydrogen and/or liquid biofuels) become important in all scenarios as a fuel for a
zero-net carbon transportation sector and, in the first scenario, to allow fossil fuels (e.g.,
hydrogen from sequestered coal) to serve small-scale, dispersed applications (e.g., residential
fuel cells). Further, in no scenario is overall success achieved without successful management of
other greenhouse gases (e.g., methane and nitrous oxide) and significant amounts ofe02 pulled
from the atmosphere by terrestrial sequestration. The more that can be achieved along these
fronts, the less will be required from the low-carbon or carbon-free energy technologies in the
near-term, and the lower the cost of greenhouse gas management. Finally, in all scenarios,
economic growth, worldwide, is sustained.
CEQ 013604
DRAFT DRA J~T DRAFT
CEQ 013605
DH.,\F; DRAFT URAfT
energy efficiency are realized, other greenhouse gases are addressed, and terr strial sequestration
plays an important support role.
Each scenario explores a technological future that might apply over a range f future conditions-
-population growth, economic growth, energy-efficiency improvements, th aggressiveness of
efforts curb greenhouse gases, and stabilization goals. Tabl ows the r nges of contributions
that primary energy sources and engineered sequestratio must b capable ofaffordably
providing at different time periods and cumulatively over e 11 century, Many ranges are
large, reflecting both the uncertainty in the underlying parameters and variations in the energy
mixes that are consistent with the scenarios. However, comparing the scale of today's energy
system (shown in the second column of Table 1) with the projections for the future, the immense
scale of the technological challenge we face is clear.
**Electricity, Hydrogen, and Liquid fuels are energy carriers/intermediates and are thus not
included in this "primary energy" table.
The entire CCTP planning process; portfolio analyses, workshops, expert consultations, and
scenario analyses, resulted in a general guiding framework for the CCTP Strategic Plan and its
accompanying portfolio of R&D investments, including:
Diversification of the climate change technology R&D portfolio is important because (1) the
magnitude of the challenge makes it extremely unlikely that a single class oftechnology could
meet the challenge on its own, (2) a diversified portfolio is a solid hedge against the possibility
CEQ 013606
DHAFT DRAFT DRAFT \.J.\.v
vJ
that some advanced technologies may not be as successful as hoped, ~ others in the portfolio
could exceed expectations, and (3) a robust, diversified science and technology capability will
maintain the flexibility to respond to, and to assimilate, pertinent information from other
countries, institutions, or areas of scientific inquiry.
Investments in the global portfolio can be sequenced over time. Thus, supporting a robust J
portfolio does not necessarily mean that everything must be done immediately. Natural t.V 0.J.
sequencing of R&D should be based upon (1) the times when different technologies eeed-to be
available and cost-effective; (2) the need to quickly resolve critical uncertainties and, in many
cases, to hold back significant contingent research until such uncertainties are resolved; and (3)
the need to demonstrate early the feasibility of determinant technologies. (The most overarching
uncertainty identified by the scenario analysis is the technical viability of geologic
sequestration-this must be a high near-term priority).
~
~
In terms of expected future energy demand and tee FeC}tti~Vels ofmitig 'on, the sheer scale
ofthe challenge calls for science and technology research that focuses no on incremental
improvements in technologies with limited potential for cost-effective, large-scale
commercialization, but on technologies or scientific explorations with the potential to deliver
100+ gigatons of mitigation over the coming century. This recommendation applies not just
across technology programs or technology areas, but also within programs or technology areas.
RD&D must focus on technology systems, including infrastructure, not just component
technologies. There should be strong communication across and within agencies to facilitate a
systems focus. In addition, near-term research should include crosscutting "technology systems
analysis" to explore the characteristics and implications of future technology systems.
6.5 Support the Development of Alternative Fuel Systems \,oJo.J[ (;,Uy- I~-/o
~
In all three scenarios, meeting the UNFCCC ana President's long-term goal Wffi.tlltimateI)I
-t=eqUit:e a transition to alternative fuels-most likely biofuels or hydrogen-in the transportation
sector. Further, in a sequestration-heavy future, alternative fuels may be required to carry energy
from sequestered fossil energy plants to distribut: " ";lplications.
Science and technology research is not a one-time endeavor: the results oftoday's research
largely shape the direction and effectiveness of future research. There is tremendous value to be
CEQ 013607
DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT
gained by resolving uncertainties that lie at the heart of clima change technology research. In
particular, for many technologies, the potential for affordabl gigaton-scale impacts is not well
understood or is the source of contentious debate. Issues of. arriers and limits-for example,
limits on affordable uranium for nuclear fission or- limits on water and land constraints for
biomass and other renewables--must receive serious attention if we are to continually improve
the targeting, and hence the effectiveness, of our science and technology research.
The CCTP Working Groups undertook a review of their respective technology areas, assessed
the current state of the Federal R&D portfolio, and made recommendations for high priority
R&D and supporting strategic research. The reviews were further informed by the scenario
analyses. Preliminary findings were exposed
to expert technical criticism at a series of
workshops held in the Fall of2003. Current R&D Priorities in Support of the
Climate Change Technology Portfolio
Not all climate change technology R&D is (FY'03 and FY'04 Budgets)
required to be funded at one time. The long-
Energy Efficiency
term nature of the challenge suggests, to the Solid State Lighting
contrary, that investment in R&D may be Zero Energy Buildings
required indefinitely, perhaps for a100 years
or more. With the current level of Federal Hydrogen
investment at about $1.6 billion per year, Freedom Car
President's Hydrogen Fuel Initiative
sustained annually over many years, Fuel Cell Technology
augmented by investments from the private Hydrogen Technology
sector and other nations, there is a large Nuclear-Based Hydrogen Initiative
opportunity for technology and innovation. Large-Scale Hydrogen Production
from Fossil Fuels
Fuel Cell Systems
A consideration for a sustained portfolio of Advanced Heavy-Duty Vehicle
R&D investments, then, is not so much about Technologies
what technologies could contribute to the Hydrogen Infrastructure Safety Research
near- or long-term goals, but what and Development
technologies and their related technical
Fossil and Sequestration
issues should be explored in what sequence? Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum
Another consideration concerns feasibility Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnerships
and scale. What technologies could be FutureGen
expected to find plausible pathways to large- Capture and Sequestration Program Area
scale commercialization? Do they afford
Nuclear
sufficient potential to make a difference, if Advanced Fuel Cycle Initiative
scaled to terawatt or multi-gigaton levels? Nuclear Power Generation IV
Another consideration is about impacts, pro Nuclear Power 2010
and con. If a technology were deployed at Nuclear Energy Research Initiative
ITER (Fusion Energy)
levels that would make a difference, what
CEQ 013608
would be the consequences or impacts of the full-cycle of technology related required activities?
If some technologies were found not able to meet these criteria, then would it not be best to find
out earlier rather than later, as other strategies would need to be developed and deployed?
Finally, what are the technical barriers to progress and bow might these be addressed by
supporting basic and strategic research?
In addition to the ongoing climate change technology R&D, the Administration's FY2003 and
FY2004 budgets identified a number of R&D priorities. These priorities, including a number of
Presidential initiatives, and other high-priority R&D areas, as shown in the accompanying box.
In addition to the current R&D baseline, and the R&D initiatives identified above, the portfolio
and scenario analyses, along with the working group reviews, suggest areas that will be
important for meeting CCTP Strategic goals and for future R&D emphasis.
Transportation Efficiency. Develop fuel cell vehicle (it is the essential platform for high
efficiency carbon-neutral vebicles-either bio-fuel based with on-board reforming or pure
H2-based)
Buildings & Industry Efficiency. Emphasize technologies that enable cutting building and
industrial energy consumption in halfby 20S<t!P the extent the marketplace will not create
the technologies itselyEmphasize end-use electrification or end-use sequestration or end-
use H2 delivery with zero-emissions.
Wind. Low Wind, speed, high efficiency turbines, in order to expand applicability.
Solar Power. Basic research into new PV materials, concepts, and production methods.
Carbon capture. Focus on diversity of flue gas streams (industrial and powerplants).
CEQ 013609
DR·\.FT DR.\FT nR.·\FT
Advancedfossil technology. Emphasize coal-to-power and coal-to-hydrogen with
substantially higher efficiencies.
Biomass Develop next generation bio-fuels and bio-power technology (begin developing
complements to conventional bio-ethanol; bio-products are niche technology).
For complex problems that span a century time frame and beyond, solutions require that science
and technology work together. Knowledge is required to design and develop the technological
solutions and to provide an intellectual framework to assess the long-term impacts of deployment
on the massive scales necessary. Universities and national laboratories, with their extraordinary
capabilities for discovery and problem solving, are particularly well positioned to conduct basic
research in these areas. Numerous recent revolutionary advances promise critical contributions to
meeting the global energy challenge.
The following are broad areas of supporting strategic research, in addition to the baseline of
ongoing basic research, identified as important to the technical progress of the above-mentioned
applied technology R&D areas, and to their deployment.
Physical Sciences. Physical sciences include the chemical sciences, materials sciences,
physics, geosciences, and nanosciences. Nanoscale science, for example, cuts across and
underpins many other sciences, affording great potential for innovation in energy storage,
fuel cells, biomimetics, tribology, and other areas. Photochemical processes can potentially
produce hydrogen. Photo-conversion technologies are needed that could lead to direct and
CEQ 013610
' ..
Computational Sciences. Many recent advances in science and technology have been made
possible by the rapid increase in the power of computers. Improvements in computational
sciences are needed for: modeling combustion; improved software and controls for
advanced electric power grids; advanced models for evaluation of CO 2 in ocean
environments and understanding of the ocean biological pump; improved models of
photovoltaic and other materials; improved models of the aerodynamics of wind turbines
and other fluid dynamics processes; computer assisted simulations of proposed advanced
components and energy systems; software expert systems and intelligent agents; and
analysis of urban/suburban land processes and parameters that affect and contribute to the
carbon cycle. Modeling and simulation are critical to rapidly engineering new properties and
phenomena into useful processes and products.
Note: Following the Front Piece, there will appear 28 reports, 4-6 pages apiece, one for each
major technology area (e.g., hydrogen, geologic sequestration, nuclearfission, etc.) identified
earlier under the Working Group structure (page 11). Each report will summarize the results of
the Working Groups' portfolio reviews and provide more detail, in more depth, than is possible
CEQ 013611
' ..
in the Front Piece. Each report will follow a commonly formatted series ofsubject areas. These
areas include the following:
At a total of200 pages, the these reports will constitute the main body ofthe CCTP Strategic
Plan. Each report will reference, for those seeking further detail, a set of 100 Key Technology
Profiles, supporting papers, and R&D program plans, posted on the CCTP WebSite.
CEQ 013612
August 21,2003
8.1.1 Hydrogen
8.1.2 Renewable fuels
8.1.3 LowCarbon Fuels
8.1.4 Renewable Power
8.1.5 NuclearFission Power
8.1.6 NuclearFusion Power
8.1.7 LowEmissions Fossil-Based Power
8.1.8 ElectricGrid and Infrastrucrure (i.e. CCTP EnablingElements)
8.2. I Transportation
8.2.2 Buildings
8.2.3 Industry:
8.3 Sequestration
8.3.1 Geologic
8.3.2 Terrestrial
8.3.3 Ocean
8.3.4 ProductIMaterials
8.4 OtherGases
CEQ 013613
8.5 Measuring and Monitoring
CEQ 013614
, . . l .....
..
.<,).: .,~;'
, •
.
,
"
."~. ..
AGENDA
NRC
- NRC meeting agenda
- Overarching NRC recommendations and initial ideas for response
002058
CEQ 013636 /
~"'- THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
Advims fo th~ IlotiM en Scicflcer fngfnecring, IJflU ~
OPEN SESSION
9:45A.M. Overview of the Strategic Plan and Responses Ghassem Asra NASA
to Comments Richard Moss, CCS PO
12:00 NOON Lunch (perhaps continue dlscusslon with Mahoney and Moss)
2:00p.M. Chapter 11: Decision Support Resources Susan Avery, NOAA and CCSPO
Development Richard Moss. CCSPO
CEQ 013637
"
.....
3:00p.M. CCTP progress and Unkage with CCSP David Conover
Director, Climate Change Technology Program
4:40 P.M. Chapter 13: Data Management and Information Wanda Farrell. DOE (invited)
Margarita Conkrigh~ NOAA and PCSPO
Martha Malden. NASA invited)
Clifford Jacobs, NSF Invited)
5:05 P.M. Chapter 15: International Research and Cooperation' Louis Bro'W n, NSF
David Allen, ~CSPO
5:30 P.M. Break
CEQ 013638
WORKINGDRAFf
August21, 2003
1
2 Revision of Draft CCSP Strategic Plan in Response to NRC Recommendatio s
3
4 The following background paper is a working draft summary of how the revised CCSP trategic
5 Plan responds to the major recommendations in the February 20'03 NRC review of the
6 Di cussion Draft strategic Plan. It was prepared by the CCSP Office with a view to inte
7 program use rather than formal transmission or general distribution,
8
9
10 Clarifying Vision and Goals
11
12 Elements of a Strategic Plan
13
14 RECOMMENDATION: The revised strategic plan should articulate a clear, concise vi ion
15 statement for the program in the context of national needs. The visionshould be spec fie,
16 ambitious, and apply to the entire CCSP. The plan should translate this vision into a et of
17 tangible goals, apply an explicit process to establish priorities, and include an effectiv
18 management plan.
19
20 RESPONSE: The vision, goals, core approaches, prioritization, and management plan f
21 program are articulated in' the revised Strategic Plan and summarized in the companio
22 "Vision" document, "Chapter 1. Introduction" (pp. I ~ 19) has been re-written to conci ely
23 address each of these issues. The chapter discusses the vision and mission of the CCS (p.
24 4); identifies two broad, overarching questions and specifies five goals to focus and 0 ent
25 research in the program to ensure that knowledge developed by ,the participating agen ies
26 and research elements can be iritegrated and synthesized to address these broad questi (pp.
27 4-6); outlines four "core approaches" that will be employed in working toward the goa s (pp.
28 6-13); summarizes CCSP prioritization criteria (pp. 13-15)~ and introduces the CCSP
29 interagency management mechanisms (pp. 15-17).
30
31 A new "Chapter 2. Integrating Climate and Global Change Research" (pp. 20-52) has
32 added, providing an overview ofhow the goals constitute a comprehensive, program- 'de
33 framework for drawing together a wide range of interdisciplinary research activities an
34 observations to focus on key climate and associated global change issues.
35
36 With regard to the issue of links between goals, timetables for accomplishment, and sp cific
37 deIiverables: Chapter 2 indicates "key research activities" focused on each ofthe five oals
38 - these research activities are drawn from the chapters on the CCSP science research
39 elements (Chapters 3-9). Chapters 3-9 identify numerous deliverables ("milestones,
40 products, and payoffs") on a timeline of''within 2 years," "24 years," and "beyond 4 y ars."
41 Each of the five goals identified in Chapter 2 also is associated with a set of CCSP "syn esis
42 and assessment products," to be developed on an ongoing basis (pp. 4345). Chapter 2
43 identifies near-term synthesis and assessment products on a time line of "within 2 years' and
44 "24 years. tt
45
CEQ 013 9
WORKING DRAFf
f August 2I. 2003
1 "Chapter 16. Program Management and Review" is a substantially revised and stren ened
2 presentation on the CCSP interagency management mechanisms (pp. 316·328).
3
4
5 Relationship Between the USGCRP and the CCRI
6
7 RECOMMENDATION: The revised strategic plan should: (1) present clear goals for e
8 CCRI and ensure that its activities are consistent with these goals; (2) maintain C s
9 strong emphasis on support for near-term decisions as an ongoing component of the rogram;
10 and (3) include an explicit mechanism to link GCRP and CCRI activities.
11
12 RESPONSE: The revised plan substantially clarifies the relationship between the CCRI and the
13 USGCRP as a strategically integrated effort. While the draft plan partitioned the CC and
14 USGCRP plans into separate parts of the document, each with its own set ofchapters, the
15 revised plan makes it clearer that the CCSP is a single program, in which the broad U GCRP
16 and the activities given near-term high priority under the CCRl share a common visio and
17 set of goals. The cqsP manages CCRI activities jointly with management of the Ion -term
18 USGCRP studies, using the same interagency management and scientific working gro p
19 structures.
20
21 The launching of the CCRI to address high-priority issues and uncertainties identified n the
22 2001 NRC report, Climate Change Science: An Analysis ofSome Key Questions, is de cribed
23 in the plan (pp. 13-1 Q) and the Vision document (pp. 6-7). The revised plan presents a
24 unified discussion of CCSP research questions, needs, milestones, products, and payo
25 CCRI priorities are highlighted at the appropriate locations in the discussion of the v ous
26 CCSP research elements (see pp. 57, 79-80, 139-140). The CCSP strategy for observa ions
27 and monitoring, and the modeling strategy, are framed in terms of a unified set of goal and
28 objectives (see "Chapter 10. Modeling Strategy" and "Chapter 12. Observing and
29 Monitoring").
30
31 CCSP Decision Support Resources activities will build on the science foundation estab ished
32 by both the USGCRP and the CCRI (see pp. 214-216). While the plan identifies an er of
33 synthesis and assessment products to be developed during the next four years, the Deci ion
34 Support Resources component of the program is designed to be ongoing, not just a ne term
35 activity.
36
37
38 Meeting the Nation's Needs for Climate and Global Change Information
39
40 Global Climate Observation System
41
42 RECOMMENDATION: The revised strategic plan should better describe a strategic pro m
43 for achieving an integrated observing system for detecting and understanding climate
44 variability and change and associated global changes on scales from regional to global.
45
CEQ 013 0
WORKINGDRAFr
August 21,2003
1 RESPONSE: The revised plan contains a substantial re-working ofthe material in the, ft plan
2 on climate systemobserving and monitoring. While the draft plan addressed observ tionsin
3 two separate chapters(Chapter 3 in the CCRI section and Chapter 12 in the USGC
4 section), the revisedplan has a singlechapter (Chapter 12) on observing and monito g.
5 This chapter lays out a strategy for climate system observing and monitoring, expres ed in
6 terms of a single overarching question and six goals, eachofwhich is outlinedwith a set of
7 objectives.
8
9 Goal 1 is: "Design,develop, deploy, and integrate observation components into a
10 comprehensivesystem."The plan specifies 10 Objectives toward achievingthis goal see pp.'
11 239-243). This goal specifically addresses recommendations from the NRC on a) th
12 to provide a strategyfor the development of the integrated observing system; b) inte
13 of existing facilities with plans for expansion; c) the role of the CCSP in the observin
14 system; d) Continuity and flexibility; e) transition from researoh to operations; f)
15 requirements for operational weatherobservations; g) climate services; and h) region
16 observations. Amongthese issues, aspects needing substantial further work continue 0 be in
17 the plans for flexibility of the development; transition from research to operations; an
18 regional observations. However, the latter have been discussed in Chapters3 through .
19
20 Chapter 12 outlines theneed for observations to detect and understand climatevariabi ity and
21 change and associated global changeson scales from regional to global. For example, Goal
22 2, "Accelerate the development and deployment of observingand monitoringelemen
23 needed for decision support," addresses needs for atmosphere and ocean observation
24 elements, paleoclimaterecords, and new capabilities for ecosystem observations. The atter
25 will enable a significantly more completerecord of the responses of regionally diverse
26 ecosystems to climate and related environmentalchanges (see pp. 243-248). ' A limita on in
27 this goal of the plan could be the practicalityof the timelines associated with these CC
28 activities. '
29
30 The third goal describes stewardship of the observing system through 4 specific objecti es:
31 a) following climate monitoring principles; b) provision for independent measurement d
32 , analysis; c) proper characterizationofsensors and algorithms to ensure climatequality ta
33 products; and d) productionof climate data records. This goal and these objectives ad ess
34 concerns from the NRCabout the stewardship of long-termclimate observations over s veral
35 generations, the balanceof satellite and in situ observations,and climate quality calibra .on.
36
37 Thefourth goal addresses the integrationof modeling activities with observations. This
38 section specifically addresses weaknesses in the earlier draft pointed out during the wo
39 and by the NRC. Thereis some overlapwith the discussionin Chapter 10 (Modeling
40 Strategy), Goall. The fifth goal discusses international cooperation needed to develop e
41 observingsystem. This goal addresses a specific recommendationmade by the NRC
42 concerning the need for coordination with the international community. Finally, the six
43 goal describes the CCSP approach to management of the observation system. This goal
44 describes to some extentthe mechanism for interagency cooperation requested by the
45
46
CEQ 013 1
WORKING DRAFT
21, 2003
AUgust
CEQ 013 2
WORKING DRAFT
August 21, 2003
1
2
3
able to fully develop the economics and environmental impacts modeling needs as
development of case studies that will require economics and environmental impacts
,UI
Follow-on workshops that will discuss implementation issues for decision support . be
the
4 modeling expertise. !
5
6
7 RECOMMENDATION: The CCSP should strengthen the treatment and integration 0
8 crosscutting research areas in all substantive chapters. The revised strategic plan sho
9 address the interactions and synergies of climate change with other associated global
10 changes.
11
12 RESPONSE: The revised plan contains a strengthened treatment and integration of cro cutting
13 research, in several ways. In the new Chapter 2, the discussion related to each of the ve
14 Goals provides examples of key research activities with sets of."Focus" research area -
15 these Focus areas call for integrating research from across the CCSP interdisciplinary
16 research elements (pp. 20-37). Chapter 2 also outlines "Critical Dependencies" arno the
17 seven CCSP research elements, with examples ofhow research and observations in 0 e
18 element will provide results needed by one or more of the other elements (pp. 37-40).
19
20 Throughout the substantive chapters on the research elements (Chapters 3-9), which i entify
21 "Illustrative Research Questions," key "Research Needs," and "Milestones, Products, nd
22 Payoffs," crosscutting linkages, interdependencies, and collaborative efforts across el ments
23 are identified. As one example, in "Chapter 3. Atmospheric Composition," the seetio on
24 "Question 3.2: What are the atmospheric sources and sinks of the greenhouse gases 0 er
25 than C02 and the implications for the Earth's energy balance?" identifies specific
26 crosscutting links with the Global Carbon Cycle, Climate Variability and Change,
27 Ecosystems, Global Water Cycle, and Human Contributions and Responses elements
28 60).
29
30 The revised plan addresses the interactions and synergies of climate change with other
31 associated global changes. For example, in "Chapter 6. Land-Use/Land-Cover Chang ,"
32 Question 6.4 is "How do climate variability and change affect land use and land cover, and
33 what are the potential feedbacks of changes in land use and land cover to climate?" (p . 126-
34 127) In "Chapter 8. Ecosystems," Question 8.1 is "What are the most important feedb ks
35 between ecological systems and global change (especially climate), and what are their
36 quantitative relationships?" (pp. 162-164)
37
38 Crosscutting chapters, including "Chapter 12. Observations and Monitoring" and "Cha ter
39 13. Data Management and Information," contain tables that link the observational and
40 management needs from Cahpters 3-9 with the strategies for addressing these needs in
41 Chapters 12 and 13 (Appendix 12.2, p. 262; Boxes 13-2 and 13-3, pp. 279-280).
42
43
44 RECOMMENDATION: The global and long-term historical context of climate change d
45 variability should receive greater emphasis in the revised strategic plan.
46
47 RESPONSE: [to be added]
CEQ 013 3
WORKING DRAFT
August21,2oo3
1
2
3 Addressing Key Uncertainties
4
5 RECOl\1MENDAnON: The revised strategic plan should identify what sources and
6 magnitudes ofreductions in key climate change uncertainties are especially needed
7 where an improved characterization ofuncertainty would benefit decisionmaking,
8 use this information to guide the research program.
9
10 RESPONSE: Key accelerated science priorities have been identified among all ofthe s ience
11 elements as well as in Chapters 1-2. Aerosols, carbon cycle, and climate feedbacks e the
12 key areas where improved characterization ofthe uncertainty has been identified as i portant
13 to decision-making. The issue of quantifying the magnitudes ofreductions needed in order
14 to move forward in decision-making is not easy -it needs to be further discussed wi
15 stakeholder interests, as well as being one ofthe major learning outcomes to be expe d
16 from using the case study approaches discussed in Chapter 11. Generally, improved
17 characterization of uncertainty is needed in all areas in order to make effectivejudgm nts on
18 the use ofthe science information in decision contexts. One of the major guidelines f r
19 decision support is the explicit treatment of Uncertainties and an understanding of the limits
20 of applicability associated with decision support tools, analyses, and reports.
21
22
23 Decision Support Resources
24
25 RECOMMENDATION: The revised strategic plan should better describe how decision
26 support capabilities will be developed and how these efforts will link with and inform e
27 program's research to improve understanding of climate and associated global change
28
29 RESPONSE: Discussion and development of an overarching decision support framewor is a
30 key element of Chapter 11 (see figure in that chapter). One of the outcomes ofthe De ision
31 Support Resources Development component of the program will be the identification a
32 information needs to guide the evolution ofthe CCSP science agenda. Specific approa hes
33 are discussed in Chapter 11, Objectives 2.1 and 3.1. Management and coordination is
34 discussed at the end ofChapter 11 in the decision support management strategy section
35
36
37 RECOMMENDAnON: The discussion of applied climate modeling should be revised t
38 better describe how models will be incorporated into the broader suite ofdecision supp rt
39 activities and to better address the key challenges to attaining the applied climate model g
40 goals set forward in the plan.
41
42 RESPONSE: There is a complete new chapter (Chapter 10) articulating modeling strategy In
43 that chapter applied climate modeling focus can be found under Goal 3 and the three
44 objectives under that goal. Regional climate modeling is discussed in Goal 1, Objective 1.6.
45 Integrated assessment modeling is also discussed in Goal 3 and Objective 3.1 ofChapte 11.
46
CEQ 013 4
WORKING DRAFT
August 21, 2003
1 In Chapter 10, linkages to decision support are treated under objective 3.1. Near-te
2 priorities include actions and plans to establish and strenghten existing linkages bet een
3 basic, applied and impacts modeling through the "multi-tiered" structure. Objective 3.1
4 addresses how the NCAR-GFDL partnership will be directed and set priorities for n ar-term
5 progress.
6
7
8 RECOMMENDATION: The revised strategic plan should build upon the lessons 1
9 applied climate studies and stakeholder interaction from prior environmental and eli
10 assessment activities.
11
12 [Response needs additional development]
13 RESPONSE: This is a key recommendation that has been incorporated into Chapter 11 der
14 objective 3.2 It is also embodied in the principal guidelines for CCSP decision supp rt
15 approach: Evaluate ongoing CCSP analyses and build on the lessons learned. The d cision
16 support management strategy also ensures continued examination of "lessons learned' from
17 decision support activities.
18
19
20 Capacity Building to Implement the Strategic Plan
21
22 RECOMMENDATION: The revised strategic plan should explicitly address the major
23 requirements in building capacity in human resources that are implied in the plan.
24
25 RESPONSE: [to be added]
26
27
28 RECOMMENDATION: The revised strategic plan should provide details about how th CCSP
29 will acquire the computing resources necessary to achieve i~ goals.
30
31 RESPONSE: In Chapter 10 (pp. 203-205), near-term priorities include specific strategies for
32 building U.S. computing capacity and capability. The FY 2004 CCSP budget request
33 . includes enhancements for computing at GFDL
34
35
36 Financial Resources for Implementing the Plan
37
38 RECOMMENDATION: The CCSP should use the clear goals and program priorities of e
39 revised strategic plan and advice from the independent advisory body recommended by the
40 committee to guide future funding decisions.
41
42 RESPONSE: [to be added]
43
44
45 Managing and Guiding the Program
46
CEQ 013 6
WORKING DRAFT
August21, 2003
g'
CEQ 013647
WORKINGDRAFf
August 21,2003
1 RESPONSE: Climate change and its impacts are global in scope and research on these issues is
2 intrinsically international in nature. The CCSP both contributes to and benefits fro
3 interactions with the international climate change research community in a great nu ber of
4 ways. The CCSP contributes to this community by providing scientific I~adership in wide
5 range of areas. The U.S., for example, provides scientific leadership for capacity bui ing
6 efforts; for research directed at understanding human dimensions; for planning and
7 implementation of satellite remote sensing and In-situ observational programs: for
8 international data management, archiving and exchange; and in a host of other areas well.
9 The U.S. also makes significant contributions to international assessments by provi . g
10 support for U.S. scientists to participate and providing logistical support, resulting in .S.
11 scientists making significant substantive scientific contributions.
12
13 Equally important is the value to the U.S. of participating in international climate ch ge
14 research and cooperation. First and foremost, the U.S. benefits from international coo
15 through sharing both the scientific and cost burden of conducting climate change relat
16 research and related observational and data management programs and activities. For
17 example, the U.S. will benefit from global climate observations now being advanced
18 facilitated by efforts 'such the lGOS-P and the Earth Observation Summit. Such global
19 observations of climate are essential to the research through which understanding of
20 Earth's climate system will be improved and broadened. .
21
22 For a comprehensive summary of U.S. contributions to and benefits from participating in
23 . international climate change research, see references throughout the Strategic Plan and in
24 particular "Chapter 15, International Research and Cooperation."
25
10
CEQ 013648
DRAFT FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY 8/21 1/2003
CCSP Goal I1mprove knowledge ojthe Earth's past and present climate and environment, including its natural
variabuit», and lmorove understandint: ofthe causes ofobserved variahi/lJy and change
2004 Temperature trends in the lower atmosphere-steps. for understanding and NOM lead
reconciling differences. NASA Sunnort
2005 Past climate variability and change in the Arctic and at high latitudes. NSF lead
NOAA SUDDort
2007 Re-analyses of historical climate data for key atmospheric features. Implications NOAA !NASA leads
for attribution of causes of observed change. DOE Support
CCSP Goal 2 Improve quantification of'the jorces bringing about changes in the Earth's climate and
related systems
First Updating scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and concentrations, in DOEIe~d
updated collaboration with the CCI'P. Review of integrated scenario development and NOAA NASA support
set in application.
2005
2005 North American carbon budget and implications for the global carbon cycle. DOE Ie d
NOAA, NASA support
2006 Aerosol properties and their impacts on climate. NOAA NASA leads
2006 Trends in emissions of ozone-depleting substances, ozone layer recovery, and NOAA NASA
implications for ultraviolet radiation exposure and climate change.
CCSP Goal 3 Reduce uncertainty in projections of how the Earth's climate and environmental systems nu!y change in the
future
2005 Climate projections for research and assessment based on emissions scenarios NOAA ead;
developed through the CCTP. NSF,D( E support
2006 Climate models and their uses and limitations, including sensitivity, feedbacks, NSF lea;
and uncertainty analysis. NOAA, ~ASA, DOE
support
2007 Climate extremes including documentation of current extremes. Prospects for NOAAI~d
improving projections. NASA S upnort
2007 Risks of abrupt changes in global climate. NSF leac
NOAA s mnort
CCSP Goal 4 Understand the sensitivity and adaptability ojdifferent natural and managed ecosystems
and human systems to climate and related elobal changes
2004 Within the transportation sector, a summary of climate change and variability DOT
sensitivities, potential impacts. and response options.
2Q05 Coastal elevation and sensitivity to sea level rise. EPA Leac'
NOAA, } ASA support
2006 State-of-knowledge of thresholds of change that could lead to discontinuities NSF lead
(sudden changes) in some ecosystems and climate-sensitive resources.
67 CEQ 013649
DRAFT FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY 8/21 12003
"
EPA, N"OAA Support
2006 Relationship between observed ecosystem changes and climate change. USDA lead
EPA, 1 OAA, NASA,
NSF Suonort
2006 Preliminary review of adaptation options for climate-sensitive ecosystems and USDA rEp A leads
resources. NOAA NASA,
supnor
2007 Scenario-based analysis of the climatological, environmental, resource, Special CCSP mgmt.
technological, and economic implications of different atmospheric concentrations structure; topical leads
of greenhouse gases. among gencies
NASA ;UDDort
2007 Stare-of-the-science of socioeconomic and environmental impacts of climate EPA Lead
variability. ' NOAA, NASA support
CCSP GoalS Explore the USI!S and identify the limits ofevolving knowledge to manage risks and
otmortunities reloUd to cl1mate variabilitv and chanf!e
2004 Uses and limitations of observations, data, forecasts, and other projections in NASAl ad
decision support for selected sectors and regions. EPA, Nl ~AA support
2005 Best practice approaches for characterizing, communicating, and incorporating NSFINASA leads
scientific uncertainty in decisionmaking. EPA, N( AA support
2005 Decision support experiments and evaluations using seasonal to interannual NOAA I ad
forecasts and observational data. NASA, I PA support
---------------- CEQ 01 o
u.s. Climate Change Science Program
1717 PennsylvanIa Ave, tfN, Suite 250,Washinglon, DC 20006. Tel: +1 2022236262
This document recommends an approach for providing review comments on the Arc c
Climate Impact Assessment currently under preparation by the International Arctic
Science Council, a high-level intergovernmental forum which includes U.S., Canada.
Russia, and the Scandinavian countries. The CCSP Interagency Committee should re iew
this recommendation and reach a decision on it at its next meeting, Thursday, 21 Au st.
The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) is an international project of the Arc c
Council and the International Arctic Science Committee (lASC). The goal of the AC is
to evaluate and synthesize knowledge of the Arctic climate system, increased ultravio et
radiation, and environmental and socio-economic impacts. The USG memberslliaison to
the steering committee are' John Calder of the NOAA Arctic Research Office in Silve
Spring and Karl Erb and Thomas Pyle who are, respectively, the director and head of
Arctic Science in the NSF Office of Polar Programs. The ACIA Secretariat is located
the University of Alaska-Fairbanks.
The document is long and technical and contains 16 chapters - an introductory chapte
the "Arctic System;" four chapters on Climate and UV Change (e.g., "Arctic Climate
System and its Global Role," "Role of Ozone, Past and Future Changes"); four chapte
on Environmental Impacts (e.g., on terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems); si
chapters on Social and Economic Impacts (e.g., "Wildlife Management and
Conservation," "Forests, Land Management, Agriculture," "Human Health," and
"Infrastructure"); and a concluding chapter on "Assessing Vulnerabilities." An additio
"synthesis" chapter is planned but has not been circulated with this set of technical
chapters.
The draft assessment has been available for simultaneous international technical expert
peer review (administered through the assessment steering committee and secretariat) d
"national" reviews by the Arctic Council member governments since mid July, and the
deadline for submission of reviews is October I, 2003. It seems that the national revie
can take whatever form a membergovernment wants it to take. Following the revie
document will undergo revision by the authors. A fullyrevised draft will be sent ou
January 2004 for final review by the Arctic Council and its working groups. Theref
the July-September period is the timefor detailed review and comment by the USG.
Jim Mahoney and I have discussed several approaches for the national review. and
propose the following approach for considerationby theCCSP. We suggest that the
CCSP participating agencies make the draft available to their own scientists and ex rts
to review in their individual technical capacities. This seems to be the mosteffective
course of action given the limited time available and the long lead time required for
consolidating an integrated interagency response. Agency scientists who submit
comments must note that they are doing so in their individual capacities as experts.
that their recommendations do not reflect the positions of the US Government.
~d;)
11111..• ltvm III \ It,"
I )l'dl-'l"ll t ,,1,1
1('\.f\t;. 'T
".
. . . . . _y.
-J
Chairman Connaughton, CEQ
I 1:50 Other Topics and General Discussion Dep. Sec. Bodman, DOC
12:00 Adjourn
peLL LL C -r t3a l
S(l2/--'t -ro !L7u .:» {JL5.ju~~ ..
000951
-------------~
Earth Observation Elements
1
President's Statement
t"'lrf"loM<l~ .. ~rt.ll\a+t.,-"y,"~~r~lY-}'.ti1U~
Oe~ S<h1Nl lht- S<.1TIrn~~.i choJf,.t pU.M tQf &:h<tl4"o"'O~.
g.,.. ';bUo\:no:. blatt ~.mCOMr'a'.H..ymnth11'4 ~ 10 veri
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~~.an.a~~~am~ Ou'~f\
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m<lTYl...,t:¥~
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- - - - - - - - - -............,C·g""Q"""Oi,..
GEO Structure
GEO.
(Folir CO:Ct:lalrs)
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4
---------------
Group on Earth Observation (GEO) • Draft Tasking
Earth Observation Summit·1 July 31
United Stales
• , I I , I
L~ta,) 0
November 28·29
2004 2005
1. Introduction
2. Purpose
3. Benefits/Requirements
6. Capacity Building
7. International Cooperation
8. Challenges
e£Q~
-------------
u.s. Plans
U.S.
RequltenwntS
U.S.Agone CENRItriteragency
Program$ I-~ Worl<i~g Group (lWGEO) . . . . .
14agtnclH A4riit, <Ja!lMi. WltlullI
--------------IIJIIICllJlllg-Qm~
Interagency Working Group on Earth
Observations (IWGEO)
• Co-chairs
- Ghassem Asrar, NASA
- Cliff Gabriel, OSTP
- Greg Withee, NOAA
IWGEO Structure
IWG50
(Co-Chairs) H=~I
r ~nn1l'l9 a Integration Team :
I J
-------------~
n -----
NASA
.
Go<iIGii'
J9.!>~_
I Mmhall t DeVon
!?.l!!.l'l!!!:'! .._••_._.,
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.:...!'o.!JJ!!!t;~. J
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OSTP bam
Slate
F,mando --._-- P _ • .- ~.~- -~~ ,.::.-:=,.. Dan R«t~
Issue
-----------.........-c~
Earth Observation Summit Participants
Backup Slides
- - - - - - - - - - - -...- .....c ~
Participating Governments
Argentina Kazakhstan
Australia Mexico
Belize Morocco
Brazil Netherlands
Canada New Zealand
China Norway
Denmark Republic of Congo
Egypt Republic of Korea
European Commission Russian Federation
Franca South Africa
Gabon Spain
Germany Sweden
India Switzerland
Ireland Thailand
Israel Ukraine
Italy United KJngdom
Japan United States
10
-------------.~
Post GEO..1 ACTIONS
1, Identify subgroup reprellentatives 10 Rlchard.Ohlemacher@noaa.gov by August 21, 2003.
2, Idenllfy Secretariat representallves to Rlcherd.Ohlemacher@noaa.gov by Augusl 21, 2003.
3. Secretarial 10 Issue drof1terms of reference for each subgroup 10 GEO members and
participants by September 12, 2003,
4. Secretariat begins planning for GED-2 by September 5, 2003.
5. Members provide response on draft terms of reference by September 24, 2003.
6. Secretariat provides annotated draft Fremewor\< euutne, Including Subgroup assignments, to
GEO members and partlclpants by September 24, 2003.
7. SUbgroups begIn work no later than October 1, 2003.
B. Se'cretanat completes draft Introduction and purpose sections of Framewor\< by
October 31, 2003.
9. Draft chapters due to seeretartat from SUbgroups by October 31, 2003.
10. Secretariat to compile and dlstrlbute to members and participants the chapters for first dreft
framewor\< document by November 14, 2003,
11. GED-2 meetlngtn Italy, November 28·29, 2003.
12. Secretariat prepares website and draft briefing package on GEO by October 14, 2003.
11
-------------~
1.- "..-- _
Memorandum
Subject: Coordination of the Climate ChangeScience Program for Fiscal Year 2006
Charge: The Climate Change Science Program released its StrategicPlan July 2003. This pl
lays out a set of priorities for the program as well as criteria for evaluating these priorities. A
agencies begin the process of preparing their budgets for fiscal year 2006, CCSP will develop
recommendations for climate change priorities. The impetus for this activity is theNRC's
recommendation that states "The CCSP should implement the activities described in the str 1:ic
plan with urgency" (A Review of the Final U.S. Climate Change Science Program Strategic Ian).
Implementation of the CCSP activities for FY06 will be based upon input from Agency
Representatives, Interagency Working Groups (IWGs), the CCSP Strategic Plan, the final NR
review, Our Changing Planet FY04 and FYOS, and the agency inventories. The emphasis wi be in
identifyinggaps in current funding based on the recommended list of priorities, and setting
measurablemilestones and deliverables which would reflect accountability towardmeeting th
program goals. ,The working assumption is that funding levels will remain flat for FY06.
We anticipate that progress on this interagencyeffort will be reported at the next meeting of e
Interagency Working Group on Climate Change Science and Technology (IWGCCST)curren ly
scheduled for April 27. The CCSP Office will facilitate this process by coordinating the acti ties
related to this process.
Questions to Agency Principals and IWG's to help in setting the program priorities for
2006
1. Is this the approach the Agency Principals wish to adopt toward setting priorities for
2. What climate change topics will your agency (or working group) focus on or continue
focusing on in FY06? ' .
3. Is funding currently identified for initiating or continuing the work in the topics identi
(2)?
4. Do any of the topics identified in (2) involve other agencies?
5. Are h'-,; any high priority areas in your agency (or working group) which were not
identified in the strategic plan?
6. Which research products do you anticipate your working group will completein FYO
FYO??
7. Can you identify a set of milestones associated with the CCSP deliverables which wi
indicate progress toward completion of the products?
1
Coordination of the Climate Change Science Program for Fiscal Year 2006
EQ 014790
1---------------- _
2
Coordination of the Climate Change Science Program for Fiscal Year 2006
. .. : . : ' .
CEQ 014791
of
Process and Timellne for the Development the CCSP FY06 Priorities
Date Action PUrpose Expected Onto It
Wednesday, Memo to Agency Inform agency principals of.draft Comments on'p ocess
Ma',,~h31 P1iricipals . process for setting priorities and for setting FY06
"Coordination of request commentson process and program prioriti ~
the Climate criteria
Change Science
Program for
Fiscal Year 2006"
Monday, Send CCSPO list Facilitate communication between
April 4 of agency CCSPO and agencies
contacts
Monday, Memo to Request for research FY06 List of top topic for
'April 4 Interagency priorities based on guidelines for FY06 from the IWG's
Working Groups setting priorities
Apri14-April 13 .Interactions ' Collation of input received from Draft of CCSP iY06
between CCSPO agency principals and IWG's Topics
and 'agency
representatives
Friday, Draft to Agency Request comments on draft FY06 Comments frorr
April 16 andIWG's program priorities agencies and 1\\ Gs on
draft document bf
priorities
Friday, Meeting of Review of issues and comments Resolution of is ues
Apri123 Agency from all participants on draft
Principals document of priorities
Tuesday, Meeting of Present outline of draft of CCSP Received comn ents
April 27 IWGCCST priorities for FY06 and/or approval for
priorities identi ed
Friday, Memo to Agency Draft of FY06 Priorities Comments and
Apri130 Principals and approval of FY)6
IWG co-chairs document
Monday, Complete initial document of CCSP Priorities for Fiscal Year 2006
May 3
3
Coordination of the Climate Change Science Program for Fiscal Year 2006
., .,~ '.
Background: Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan
The setting of priorities for the program, as described in the Strategic Plan is based on:
1. Research priorities are assessed on an annual basis using multiple information sources
2. Near-term priorities are reflected in the CCRI
3. Initially, the following issues will receive priority
3.1. Three research issues identified by NRC
3.1.1. Atmospheric distributions and effects of aerosols
3.1.2. Climatefeedbacks and sensitivity
3.1.3. Carbon sources and sinks, focusing particularly on North America
3.2. Observing systems and data management
3.3. Decision support resources development
3.4. Communications
Issuefor discussion: should the criteria and priorities identified in the Strategic Plan be up ated
based on lessons learned since the release ofthe plan.
4
Coordination of the Climate Change Science Program for Fiscal Year 2006
Background: Recommendations from Second NRC Report (February 2004)
The Executive Summary of the National Research Council's review ofthe final U.S. Climate
Change Science Program Strategic Plan lists the following recommendations which should be
considered when setting priorities for FY 2006:
1. The CCSP should implement the activitiesdescribed in the strategic plan with urgency.. (p 1)
2. The CCSP and its parent committees should (1) develop a clear budgetary process linking ks
to agency and program budgets; (2) securethe financial resources, for the present and the
i
that will ensure the overall success of the plan; and (3 considernew approaches to fundin
will enable new initiatives and the shiftingofresources to respond to the nation'sevolvin
needs.( p . l ) · .
4. The CCSP should further develop its decision support activities, making sure to meet the eeds
of local, regional, national, and internationaldecision makers. The synthesis and assessni nt
products should be chosen to explicitly address the range of needs for decision makers an
program management, as well as the broad scope specified in the Global Change Researc Act.
(p.2)
5. CCSP should develop more comprehensive strategies forimplementing and sustaining a obal
Earth observing system and for meeting climate modeling goals; (p.2)
6, CCSP should establish and institutionalize effective management processes that create
accountability for meeting program goals. (p.S)
7. The CCSP should carefully assess the needs in capacity implied by the strategic plan and
address any gaps by coordinating ongoing capacity building efforts at participating agenci s and
initiating new programs as needed. (p.3)
5
Coordination of the Climate Change Science Program for Fiscal Year 2006
, ..
• '.'.' ." • • : 1, '\ •
.,.,...-'-'---'-'-'---'---'-'--"'----'-.:::.:.::.::.;.:;:;..;....;.....~...:----.;---.....l---..,..,.,~"7'I"l'..,.,.,~
Backllround: SummarY of Memorandnm from Snencer Abraham and Donald Evans to lJohn
Marbnrger on Reallocations in FY2005·FY2006 to Support CCSP Goals
In July 2003, John Marburger (OSTP) releaseda Fact Sheet onthe CCSP FY2005-FY2006
Accelerated Research on Global Climate Observations. This fact sheet is summarizedbelow.
6
Coordination of the Climate Change Science Program for Fiscal Year 2006
. ':'.":'1:..:';, ,". , , ..
'
".' "'
CEQ 014795
Synthesis and Assessment Products
Products Due FY 2006 (WIthin 2 Years)
# Time Frame Topic Agancles Working ( roup
for
Completion
1.1 Within 2 Temperature trends in NOAA (Lead) Climate Var ability
years the lower atmosphere- NASA/OOEINSF (Supporting) and ChangE
steps for understanding Observatlor s
and reconciling
differences.
1.2 Within 2 Past climate variability USGS (Lead) ClimateVsr ability
years and change In the Arctic NSF/NOAA/NASA (Supporting) andChangl
and at high latitudes.
7
Coordination of the Climate Change Science Program for Fiscal Year 2006
-<.~ - :',
CEQ 014796
# Time Frame Topic Agencies Working Group
for
Completion
5.3 Within 2 Decision support NOAA(Lead) Decision Su port
fears experiments and NASNEPNUSGS/USAID/DOElUSDA
evaluations using (Supporting)'
seasonal to interannual
forecasts and
observational data.
~'
8
Coordination of the Climate Change Science Program for Fiscal Year 2006
, '
CEQ 014797
Synthesis and Assessment Products
Products Due FY 2008 (2-4 Years)
# Time Frame Topic Agencies Working :iroup
'for
cemelettcn
1.3 2-4 years Re-analyses of historical NOAAINASA (Lead) Observatio ~s
cnmate data for key DOE (Supporting)
atmospheric features.
Implications for attribution of
causes of observed chance,
2.3 2-4 years Aerosol properties and their NOANNASA (Lead) Atmosphelc
impacts on climate. Composltic n
9
Coordination of the Climate Change Science Program for Fiscal Year 2006
4.7 2-4 years Within the transportation DOT (Lead) Decision S pport
sector, a summary of USGS/DOE (Supporting) .
climate change and
variability sensitivities,
potential Impacts, and
response options.
10
Coordination of the Climate Change Science Program for Fiscal Year 2006
..
, .: 'i';;,·, .;.;:;\;...;0,'>,,:.,' "" ;,:;...., .. ,
, ~,-~ ....... ~
. '.
CEQ 014799
Research Products to be Completed by FY 2006 (= 2 Years)
I
I
Red: research need. Blue: collaboration Green: SUODort
I WG
•
Milestones, Products, and Supportil19 Lead Contact Resources 1
~paYOffS Agencies AgencY Point Identified Unk
,
4,2 4.1 Improved probability forecasts of
regional manifestations of
seasonal climate anomalies
resultiM from ENSO.
4.5 4.2 Establishment of research teams
involving climate and social
scientists and stakeholders in
cltrnate-sensltlve regions to
create focused, user-responsive
partnerships.
4,5 4.3 Increased partnerships with
existing stakeholder support
Institutions, such as state
climatologists, regional climate
centers, agricultural extension
services, resource management
agencies, and state
--
governments to accelerate uses
rl~9:~·!t'w~·
of climate knowled e.
" ., ~J':l~P.!1i ..' ""
,
,' . .
5.1 5.1 In collaboration. with the NASA,NOAA • aBS
Observations element,
development of a integrated
global observing strategy for
water cycle variables, employing
Observational System
Simulation Experiments (OSSE)
as aooroorlate
5.3 5.2 Regional reanalysis providing a
wide range of high resolution,
daily water cycle analysis
products for a 25-year period, for
use in analyzing features absent
in global climate data
assimilation croducts
5.5 5.3 An experimental surface and NOAA OS
subsurface moisture monitoring
product for land resource
management, (e.g. fires or
aariculture)
5.5 5.4 An experimental online decision NOAA,USGS OS
support tool designed to allow
users to C;;':..il1 changed
streamflow conditions
corresponding to various future
climate change scenarios in the
Pacific Northwest
11
Coordination ofthe Climate Change Science Program for Fiscal Year 2006
...... _
.. ..
CEQ 014800
Q# # Milestones, Products, and Supporting , Contact Resources, WG
Pil ofts A encles Point, Identified L1nk~
5.5 5.5 Refinements of web based tools NOM DS
that improve the' communlcatlon,
dlssemlnatlon of the meaning
and reliability of climate/water
'forecasts
12
Coordination of the Climate Change Science Program for Fiscal Year 2006
. 'i. "
Q# #, Milestones, Products, and , C~!1tact Resources WG "
Pa ofts, ' Point Id'entifled Lhik1
6.4 6.11 ,Analysis of existing databases
arid thedries about climate:'
reiated processes that affect '
l~ri9 use,P1ange, incluqirlg ,
utlCEirtain anal sis '
6.4, 6.12 Evaluatlon'ofhow.thetype and, NASA. USGS. cve
distribotion':of lana'cover affects NOAA
regional weather and cJimate~'
attarns '
6.5' Report ,on,th~ social. economlc, NSF.NASA, ECO,
and ecological impl'!~ of ' ,USGS, USDA HC
urbanization on 6tfier land uses
13
Coordination of the Climate Change Science Program for Fiscal Year 2006
, "
, ,"
, ",1, . ': \
2
"
14
Coordination ofthe Climate Change Science Program for, Fiscal Year 2006
..
MEMORANDUM
It is requested that the Climate Change Scie~ce Program (CCSP) Principals augment th
funding recommended fo~ International Activities by the Financial Operation Group
(FOG) to bring the overall CCSP funding for these Activities to the level recommended
earlier to the Principals by the WGIIRC. The Working Group recommended an
allocation of$I,878~OOO for these activities; the FOG has since recommended (based 0
the FOG recommendations that I received today) that a smaller amount of funds be
provided $1,454,563. .
The Working Group conducted a comprehensive and thoughtful analysis of the requests
that had been presented to the CCSP for continued support of the efforts of the
international global change research and research-related activities of the major
international global change research programs. The Working Group concluded these to
be largely reasonable requests that provide substantial benefits for U.S. global change
research,benefits that far outweigh the small overall investment we are being asked to
make. However the Working Group did recommend on the basis of our analysis,
reductions for a few of these activities.
The augmented funding requested includes initial support for two new activities the Ea
System Science Partnership (ESSP) and the Global Environmental Change and Food
Systems (GECAFS) program. The Principals are asked to endorse CCSP support for
'~lese two activities. B;:;t..1 of these activities represent in large part efforts by the
international global change research programs to first assure more effective integration f
international global change research e.g., between the natural and the social sciences,
and, second, support research that in addition to improving understanding of Earth
system processes, can contribute more effectively than in the past to the policy-making
process. It is my belief that both of these objectives are responsive to goals of the U.S
o
Climate ChangeScience Program,especially' as presented ~.the "StrategicPlanfor this
Program. The Executive Directors of theInternational global change research programs
provided information on both the ESS!> arid GECAFS' to the Principals in lars January;
andthe Working Group providedadditional infomm.tion withits recommendations to th
Principals. Ail. unfavorable CCSPresponse to' theserelatively smallfundingrequests .:
could in my view. discourage the IGBP, WCRP, IHDPand Diversitas from pursuing .
further efforts to develop new joint programs for which they consider U.S. scientists an
financial leadership essential. . ' .
Pleaselet me know if the Working Group can assist youfurther in addressing the issues
that we have raised. I expect to be back in the officenext Tuesday, 30 March. .
:i...... ;;...'. ..•.. , \." " ,I '_ :;'i\ ..' ';':, ;... ,., _"
CEQ014811
Observations Working Group
TERMS OF·REFERENCe*
The Observations Working Group (OWG) is a standing committee that supports the U.S. Climate Chan e
Science Program (CCSP), which incorporates the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and e
Climate Change Research Initiative (CCR!). The purpose of the Working Group is to support and assist e
CCSP Principals by providing a forum for discussion and development of strategies to design, coordina e
and implement an integrated observational, monitoring, and data management system to meet the goals f
the cCSP Strategic Plan. The OWG will consider the comprehensive observational system needed to me t
climate science requirements, and strategies developed will be relative to the comprehensive clima
observational system, not only to those portions covered by the CCSP budget.
The Working Group will report directly to the CCSPPrincipals for guidance and direction related to i
activities. It will work closely with the other working groups as appropriate and will be supported by
CCSP Office.
Oyerarohing Goal~
The goal of the CCSP is-to provide active stewardship for an observational system that will:
1. document the evolving state of the climate system; .
2. allow for improved understanding oeits
changes; and
3. contribute to improved predictive capability for society.
OWG Objectives
Membership
All agencies participating in the CCSP should be represented on the Working Group. In addition, agencie
or departments engaged in observational activities relevant to the CCSP may be represented. The Workln
Group will also establish a number of sub-groups to address specific observational, monitoring, and/or dl;\
management issues. Membership in the sub-groups will be open to agency representatives of CC
science working groups, representatives of other interagency organizations, and, when appropriate, exte I
experts will participate in the Working Group. The Working Group is Co-Chaired by two working grou
members from two agencies appointed by the CCSP Principals.
Version 2 of original TOR which was proposed to the CCSP Principals January 2004
" . ,.; .
4.3: UNDERSTAND CLIMATE, AND ASSESS, ADAPT TO, AND MITIGATE
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
The Earth environmentis a dynamic system undergoing continuous change 01' seasonal,
annual, and longer timesca1es. Many scientific observations indicate that the Earth may n w
be undergoing a period of more rapid change on these time scales, when comparedto the
historical record. Scientific evidence suggests that a complex interplay of natural and h
. related forces may explain this recentlyobserved climate variability.
4.3.1: USERREQUIREMENTS
To understand, adapt to, and mitigate such changes, a climate observing system must:
Improve knowledge of Earth's past and present climate and environment, including its
natural variability, and improve understanding of the causes of observed variability an
changes;
Improve quantification of forces bringing about changes in Earth's climateand related
systems;
Reduce uncertainty in projections of how Earth's climate system may changein future
Understand the sensitivity and adaptabilityof different natural and managedecosyst s
and human systems to climate and related global changes;
Explore the uses and identify the limits ofevolvingknowledge to manage risks and
opportunities related to climate variability and change.
CEQ 014821
Develop global high-resolution satellite land-cover databases.
Observe global fluxes of C02, between air and sea, within the oceans, and from land t
ocean.
Define requirementsfor ecosystem observations to monitor changes and quantify
feedbacks.
Provide data quantifying above and belowground effects of elevated C02 and 03.
Depict geographic extent of human impacts on the environment.
Produce elevation maps depicting areas vulnerable to sea level rise.
4.3.4: PARTNERSHIPS INTERAGENC\1INTERNATIONAL/COMMERCIAL
The United States and International partners coordinate the implementation of the Climate
Variability and Change strategic vision. Our Changing Planet FY 2003 illustrates the broa
inter-agency involvementof a cross-section of relevant U.S. federal agencies, coordinated at
U.S. cabinet level. U.S. CLIVAR has in place a nucleus of scientific and programmatic
elements, and strong linkages with the weather prediction community will advance
capabilities to address issues of high societal relevance. The cadre of regional climate ceo
and state climatologists help ensure that regional and user expertise is represented in the
development ofeffective frameworks for making climate information available. Intematio I
research programs such as the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and its proje ts
Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR), StratosphericProcesses and their Role'
Climate (S.pARC), Climate and Cryosphere (CliC), the Global Energy and Water Cycle
Experiment (GEWEX), as well as the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IG
are critical for developing global infrastructure. GCOS bas fostered the integration of key
elements The lGOS Partnership (IGOS-P) focuses specificallyon the observations in
providing information for decision-making. The implementation panels of the Joint
WMOIIOCTechnical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology are
particularly well positioned to deploy and sustain the in situ ocean networks.
EQ 0148 2
oceanographic community las successfully engaged coastal nations to participate in
observing. International programs addressing terrestrial processes have demonstrated si
successes in observing ecosystems. The United States can contribute further by evaluatin
existing networks' capability to 'meet established climate requirements; improving exis .
networks through direct contributions to internationalprograms; forming partnerships wi
other developed countries to make directed investments to meet developing country .
inadequacies: providing direct assistance through U.S. programs of aid to specific develo ing
country activities; and continuing to expand collaborative international scientific pro
that address critical climate variables.:
4.3.7: RECOMMENDATIONS
Reduce uncertainty about the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases (GHGs), emissions
aerosols and their precursors, and their climate effects
Determine North American and oceanic carbon sources and sinks; the impact of land-use
change and resource management practices on carbon sources and sinks; project future
atmospheric carbon dioxide and methane concentrations and changes in land-based and
marine carbon sinks; and the global distribution of carbon sources and sinks and how the are
changing
., ,.. '-',~
CEQ 014823
Determine cycling of nutrients such as nitrogen and how these nutrients interact with the
carbon cycle; key processes that link ecosystems with climate; and options for managing
agricultural lands, forests, and other ecosystems '
Identify potential effects of climate variability and change on human health and welfare
Address processes affecting the recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer from reduced 0
levels observed in recent decades; the properties and, distributions of greenhouse gases an
aerosols; long-range transport of pollutants and implications for regional air quality
Identify trends in the intensity of the water cycle determine the causes of these changes;
predict precipitation and evaporation on timescales of months to years and longer; and m
physical/biological and socioeconomic' processes tofacilitate efficient water resources
management
Complete global coverage of the oceans with moored, drifting, and ship-based networks.
Enhance short-term focus on reducing key scientific uncertainties to support informed pu lie
review of adaptation ani mitigation strategies ' ,
Enhance modeling capacity to accelerate incorporation of new knowledge into comprehe sive
climate models and develop model products for decision support
, -
• 1, • .....
,.;
CEQ 014824
Suggested topic for NRC study proposal to CCSP
Background:
1. The NRC currently has two ad hoc studies underway for the CCSP, both due for comple
CY 2004: (1) Radiative Forcing Effects on Climate; and (2) Metrics for Documenting Pro
in Global Change Research.
2. The CCSP has not yet authorized the NRC to spend funds that have already been provide to
the NRC (in FY 2003) to support additional studies.
3. CCSP tabled this issue at its December meeting. An action item from the meeting was to
request that representatives from the agencies meet to discuss possible topics. Representati s
from DOE, NASA, EPA, NSF, and CCSPO met during an open meeting on January 23 and
discussed four candidate topics: scenario development and application; adaptive capacity;
uncertainty; and ecosystems. Following the meeting, individuals drafted several short
descriptions of these possible studies. A fifth topic focused on assessment processes was
recommended earlier by the NRC.
4. The Acting CCSP Director consulted with Dr. Mahoney and other CCSP representatives d
is suggesting that the program request the NRC submit a proposal for a study on the topic
described below.
5. Comments on this description are requested at the CCSP meeting. The NRC has been w ting
for word from the program on this request for some time, and they would like to discuss it a
their next meeting, 8-9 April.
The CCSP Strategic Plan indicates that the Program will guide implementation of future de ision
support activities, including synthesis and assessment products, through evaluation of the
"lessons learned" from previous assessments and other decision support case studies. Beca
the importance of assessments in the CCSP, and because the scientific community is inves .
very significant amounts of time in conducting assessments, it is timely to evaluate the stre s
and weaknesses of scientifically based environmental assessment processes and the value 0 the
end products. CCSP requests that the NRC submit a proposal for a study to identify lessons
learned from a number of previous assessments, examining both the processes and products to
identify their strengths and weaknesses and gauge their value and usefulness.
Many climate and global change assessments have been completed in the last 15 years, bo
domestically and internationally. These include, as key examples, the periodic scientific
assessments of ozone depletion prepared under the Montreal Protocol, the periodic assessm nts
prepared by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and the U.S. National Assess ent
of the Potential Consequences of Climate Change supported by the U.S. Global Change
Research Program. The ozone assessments, the IPee assessments, and the U.S. National
Assessment have each involved more than a thousand scientists as authors, contributors, an
', "
reviewers, Assessments now consume a greatdeal of academic and federal researchers' time,
particularly in the United States. The of
optimal composition assessment participants and the
scopeand frequency of assessments needed to effectively answerpolicy questions should be
evaluated to determinehow best to utilize scientificexpertisewithout overburdening the
community. "
Policyand management decisions are made even as needed research continues, Assessments
have a key ongoing role to play in bridging the arenasof scientific research and decisio " g.
Assessments must develop a broad and well-developed array of options for decisionmakersto
consider. This will require strengtheningthe interaction between: researchers conducting'
assessments and the potential users of assessment products. This study is intended to help
assessments create more usable information. '
CEQ 015613
Draft CIWG Implementation Plan
August 20, 2004
Goal: crwG will serve as a resource to agencies and working groups to improve
communications coordination and integration.
Strategies:
Specific Activities:
CEQ 015696
C. Basic CCSP information, These products will consist of short (1.2 page)
summaries taken from existing reviewed and approved documents, such as
Our Changing Planet and the Strategic Plan. Part of the product
development will include a standardized "look and feel" that will be used
in future products .. Products to be completed over a 3-month period, from
date of implementation plan approval. Products include overviews of the
following: CCSP, Strategic Plan, funding, synthesis & assessment
products, research elements/agency activities
B. Document services
1. review and production assistance
2. document distribution
CEQ 015697
presentations, lectures, posters or other means to illustrate the
overarching objectives offederally funded climate science).
Ideally, CCSP will be represented at major global change related
trade events, with additional events added each year.
2. Climate News clipping coordination: the crwG will explore
options for sharing and disseminating climate-related news
clippings within and between CCSP agencies. It will determine
what agencies are already distributing climate related news
clippings, draw together best practices for preparation, and
investigate opportunities for streamlining efforts. The crwG will
also look into the viability of developing a searchable database of
climate-related news clippings available to the CIWG and other
CCSP working groups.
3. Calendar/Template: each agency will provide information about
current and upcoming events that may provide opportunities for
cross-agency communications efforts. These templates will be
posted on the crwG website and updated monthly one-week
prior to each CIWG meeting. They will be used as a basis for a
variety of purposes, including identifying research topics (see
IB2), information sharing, and discussion during CIWG
meetings. (attach excel spread sheet)
III. Seize Unexpected Opportunities (we should have some examples/ideas here)
Note: we may want to include a timeline/worksheet for all activities (such as microsoft
project).=Qood idea!
CEQ 015698
Draft CIWO Implementation Plan
September 8, 2004
Goal: CIWG will support agencies and working groups by facilitating the development
of communications products and coordinating communications activities.
Strategies:
Approval Process: In accordance with the CIWG terms of reference, decisions will be
made by consensus of CIWG members, and all products involving public communication
activities or deliverables will be confirmed by the CCSP Principals. Product approval will .
be as follows:
• Concept approval-Each product will receive concept approval upon obtaining
approval by both the CIWG (with input from each member's agencies) and
the Principals. Specific products are submitted for concept approval as part of
this implementation plan and are identified in the attached spreadsheet.
Additional products will be submitted conceptually first to the CIWG then
submitted to the Principals for approval.
• Product approval-Each product will be approved by the CIWG (with input
from each member's agencies), then submitted to the Principals for approval.
The final draft, reflecting comments by the Principals, will be submitted to the
CCSP Director for final approval and public release.
CEQ 015882
4. Establish and build browser-based link. management system to
strengthen links among CCSP interagency and agency websites,
and to increase traffic to those sites
5. Develop suite of Web tools to facilitate interagency working
group communications
6. Establish online image gallery to facilitate sharing of illustrations
7. Improve system for responding to public comments and
questions with emphasis on quick responses to questions
submitted via GCRIO's "Ask Dr. Global Change"
B. Document services
1. review and production assistance
2. document distribution
CEQ 015883
II. Product Coordination and Development
A. Basic CCSP information: these products will consist of short (1-2 page)
summaries taken from existing reviewed and approved documents, such as
Our Changing Planet and the Strategic Plan. Part of the product
development will include a standardized "look and feel" that will be used
in future products. Products to be completed over a 3-month period, from
date of implementation plan approval. Products include overviews of the
following: CCSP, Strategic Plan, funding, synthesis & assessment
products, research elements/agency activities.
B. Our Changing Planet: the CIWG will provide a summary of
communications activities and products to the CCSPO for inclusion in the
FY 2006 Our Changing Planet. This section will include a report on
communications and outreach activities completed as well as those
activities planned for the following year.
C. Climate change science fundamentals: these outreach products will
borrow heavily on material already produced by the CCSP and member
agencies, the NRC, and the lPCC. Products may include FAQs and
educational fact sheets.
D. Synthesis and assessment products: the crwG will assist in producing
associated communications and outreach materials.
E. Quarterly research highlights: these will focus on highlighting cross-
agency research efforts. The approach will be to capitalize on those
research areas where an existing event is already scheduled or has taken
place. The goal will be to address one topic per quarter. These may
include such products and activities as a fact sheet, press briefing or media
roundtable, and speakers. Stakeholder engagement will be sought, when
possible. Possible topics include: ecosystems, land cover/land use, carbon
cycle (NACP), water cycle, arctic programs, and temperature trends
(based on the first prospectus).
F. CCSP working group documents: the CIWG will assist the working
groups in producing outreach materials in conjunction with the release of
research products such as: press releases, summaries, web resources, and
materials developed for specific audiences
m. Evaluation
A. Produce periodic and annual summary reports evaluating .
communications efforts, documenting progress and describing near-term
objectives.
CEQ 015884
Draft CIWO Implementation Plan
September J.1,_ ~QQ1_ .: ~ ~ - -f__D_el_et_ed_:8 --'
Goal: CIWG will support agencies and working groups by facilitating the development
of communications products and coordinating communications activities.
Strategies:
Approval Process: In accordance with the CIWG terms of reference, decisions will be
made by consensus of CIWG members, and all products involving public communication
activities or deliverables will be confirmed by the CCSP Principals. Product approval will
be as follows:
• Concept approval-each product and activity identified in this implementation
plan will receive concept approval upon final acceptance ofthis plan by the
CIWG and CCSP Principals. Any additional products will be submitted
conceptually first to the CIWa then submitted to the Principals for approval.
• Product approval-each product will be submitted in draft to the CIWG (with
inputfrom each member's agencies). Once approved, it will be submitted to
the Principals for approval. The final draft, reflecting comments by the
Principals, will be submitted to the CCSP Director for final approval and
public release.
Roles and Responsibilities: lJt.e C1WG is C01I}t!J'!.·sed"o(CCSP a~el!.G1'-,ee'.:.e.-sentatjves. ~ ~ -1 Deleted: (To be IUlded, Katie /q draft)
supported by CCSPO staff: Agency representatives have decision-making responsibilities.
When requested by the CIWG, CCSPO staffprovide support and resources to implement
the decisions made by the CIWG, including those activities outlined in this
implementation plan. The CCSP agency representatives will provide guidance on
communications infrastructure and product development, access to agency expertise and
other resources in support ofthese activities, and coordination between agency and
CCSP on communications activities.
CEQ 015963
2. Develop and implement systematic approach to promoting CCSP
Web sites and encouraging links from other sites
3. Develop and implement system that expedites flow of CCSP
documents to the Web
4. Establish and build browser-based link management system to
strengthen links among CCSP interagency and agency websites,
and to increase traffic to those sites .
5. Develop suite of Web tools to facilitate interagency working
group communications
6. Establish online image gallery to facilitate sharing of illustrations
7. Improve system for responding to public comments and
questions with emphasis on quick responses to questions
submitted via GCRIO's "Ask Dr. Global Change"
B. Document services
1. review and production assistance
2. document distribution
CEQ 015964
prior to each CIWG meeting. They will be used for a variety of
purposes, including identifying research topics (see ffi2),
information sharing, and discussion during CIWG meetings.
(attach excel spreadsheet)
II. Product Coordination and Development
A. Basic CCSP information: these products will consist of short (1-2 page)
summaries taken from existing reviewed and approved documents, such as
Our Changing Planet and the Strategic Plan. Part of the product
development will include a standardized "look and feel" that will be used
in future products. Products to be completed over a 3-month period, from
date of implementation plan approval. Products include overviews of the
following: CCSP, Strategic Plan, funding, synthesis & assessment
products, research elements/agency activities.
B. Our ChangingPlanet: the CIWG will provide a summary of
communications activities and products to the CCSPO for inclusion in the
FY 2006 Our Changing Planet. This section will include a report on
communications and outreach activities completed as well as those
activities planned for the following year.
C. Climate change science fundamentals: these outreach products will
borrow heavily on material already produced by the CCSP and member
agencies, the NRC, and the IPCC. Products may include FAQs and
educational fact sheets. '
D. Synthesis and assessment products: the CIWG will assist in producing
associated communications and outreach materials.
E. Quarterly research highlights: these will focus on highlighting cross-
agency research efforts. The approach will be to capitalize on those
research areas where an existing event is already scheduled or has taken
place. The goal will be to address one topic per quarter. These may
include such products and activities as a fact sheet, press briefing or media
roundtable, and speakers. Stakeholder engagement will be sought, when
. possible. Possible topics include: ecosystems, land coverlland use, carbon
cycle (NACP), water cycle, arctic programs, and temperature trends
(based on the first prospectus).
F. CCSP working group documents: the CIWG will assist the working
groups in producing outreach materials in conjunction with 'the release of
research products such as: press releases, summaries, web resources, and
inaterials developed for specific audiences
III. Evaluation
A. Produce periodic and annual summary reports evaluating
communications efforts, documenting progress and describing near-term
objectives.
CEQ 015965
Draft CIWG Implementation Plan
September 20, 2004
Mission: [To facilitate two-way communication between the Climate Change Science
Program (eCSp), the media, stakeholders and the general public.]
Strategy: The crwG will provide support to CCSP, its participating agencies and
working groups on matters of communication, including the development and
coordination of communications infrastructure, products and activities.
Approval Process: In accordance with the CIWG terms of reference, decisions will be
made by consensus ofCIWG members, and all products involving public communication
activities or deliverables will be confirmed by the CCSP Principals. Product approval will
be as follows:
• Concept approval-each newproduct and activity identified in this
implementation plan will receive concept approval upon final 'acceptance of
this plan by the CIWG and CCSP Principals. Any additional products will be
submitted as concepts to the CIWG then to the Principals for approval.
• Product approval-each draft product will be reviewed by the CIWG (with
input from each member's agencies). Once approved by the CIWG, it will be
submitted to the Principals for approval. The final draft, reflecting comments
by the Principals, will be submitted to the CCSP Director for final approval
and public release.
Functions: crwG has identified the following functions, related products and activities
as key areas of focus for meeting its stated mission and goal. The crwG will initiate
programs, activities and products in these areas aimed at the effective implementation
and coordination of communications activities for' CCSP.
CEQ 015994
3. Program announcements and Research highlights
II. Public Outreach - providing materials and developing methods for public
outreach on issues related to climate science and the activities and products of
CCSP. These outreach activities should emphasize links to CCSP to help establish
a recognizable program identity. Specifically, CIWG will help develop materials
and strategies to reach out to these audiences through various mechanisms,
including:
A. Basic CCSP information: these products will consist of short (1-2 page)
summaries taken from existing reviewed and approved documents, such as
Our Changing Planet and the Strategic Plan. Part ofthe product
development will include a standardized "look and feel" that will be used
in future products. Products to be completed over a 3-month period, from
date of implementation plan approval. Products include overviews of the
following: CCSP, Strategic Plan, funding, synthesis & assessment
products, research elements/agency activities.
B. Climate change science fundamentals: the CIWG will review existing
climate change science information materials and evaluate the need for
additional products. Products on climate change science fundamentals
may include FAQs and educational fact sheets. Any proposed products
will require concept approval and will borrow heavily on material already
produced by the CCSP and member agencies, the NRC, and the IPCC.
C. Quarterly research highlights: these will focus on highlighting cross-
agency research efforts. The approach will be to capitalize on research
areas where an existing event is already scheduled or has taken place. The
goal will be to address one topic per quarter through fact sheets and other
outreach materials. Stakeholder' engagement will be sought, when feasible.
Possible topics include: ecosystems, land cover/land use, carbon cycle
(NACP), water cycle, arctic programs, and temperature trends (based on
the first prospectus).
D. CCSP working group documents: the CIWG, through liaisons with the
working groups will assist in producing outreach materials in conjunction
with the release of research products.
E. Science conferences and briefings: the CIWG will identify opportunities
for outreach to .specific audiences through constituent briefings, exhibits at
science conferences, and placing CCSP speakers on panels. CCSP will be
represented by its constituent agencies or the CCSPO at conference
symposia and other similar functions, when possible. The CIWG will
encourage agencies with a long-established presence at these events to put
forward CCSP messages and identify their affiliation with CCSP.
CEQ 015995
III. Web sites- Integrating, updating and improving the usability of the interagency
Web sites, recognizing they are essential public communication and outreach
tools.
A. Develop and implement systematic approach to promoting CCSP Web
sites and encouraging links from other sites.
B. Develop and implement system that expedites flow of CCSP documents to
the Web.
C. Establish and build browser-based link management system to strengthen
links among CCSP interagency and agency web sites, and to increase
traffic to those sites.
D. Develop suite of Web tools to facilitate interagency working group
communications.
E. Establish online image gallery to facilitate sharing of illustrations.
F. Improve system for responding to public comments and questions with
emphasis on quick responses to questions submitted via GeRIO's ."Ask
Dr. Global Change".
CEQ 015996
V. Evaluation and Reporting
A. Evaluation criteria will be identified prior to implementing any new
communications activities or products, such that the effectiveness of each
activity/product can be easily assessed.
B. The CIWG will provide a summary of communications activities and
products to the CCSPO for inclusion in the FY2006 Our Changing Planet.
This section will include a report on communications and outreach
activities completed as well as those activities planned for the following
year.
CEQ 015997
CCSP Communications Interagency Working Group (C
2 Draft Terms of Reference
3 For CCSP Principals review
4
5
6 General Description
7
8 The Communications Interagency Working Group (CIWG) is a standing committee of
9 U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP), which incorporates the U.S. Global
10 Change Research Program (USGCRP) and the Climate Change Research Initiative
II (CCRI). The purpose of the CIWG is to ensure an effective and credible communicatio s
12 program to meet the goals of the CCSP Strategic Plan.
13
14 The CIWG reports directly to the Principal Representatives to the CCSP (Principals) for
15 guidance and approval of its activities. It works closely with CCSP
16 Agencies/Departments and liaisons from the Executive Office of the President (EOP)
17 participating in the CCSP, with other CCSP working groups, and with other related
18 programs. It is supported by the CCSP Office.
19
20 Goal
21
22 The goal of the CIWG, as outlined in the Strategic Plan is to support the development 0
23 a program that effectively communicates climate change science information to
24 stakeholders in the United States and throughout the world by:
25
26 • Objectively and credibly reporting relevant aspects of scientific findings
27 • Disseminating results of CCSP activities
28 • Making scientific information and products easily available and in formats
29 suitable to a diverse set of audiences
30
31 To accomplish this goal, the CIWG will encourage openness and transparency in two-
32 way communications with stakeholders through on-going dialogue.
33
34 Activities
35
36 In support of this goal, the CIWG, with assistance from the CCSPO, will carry out the
37 following activities: ~
38
39 • Hold regular meetings of CIWG members to coordinate existing
40 communications efforts and plan additional interagency communications
41 activities consistent with the goals and objectives of the CCSP strategic plan
42 • Assist in the dissemination of CCSP' s products, including assisting with
43 reviews of draft and final work products by stakeholder communities
44 • Develop and advance a strategy for enhancing, interconnecting, and
45 promoting the content of the Web sites operated or supported by CCSP-
46 participating agencies
o :1069
1 • Develop outreach materials using formats such as FAQs, poster displays,
2 videos and educational fact sheets
3 • Support existing outreach activities and develop additional initiatives as
4 agreed to be necessary, including:
5 I. Conducting or sponsoring briefings, lectures and press conferences
6 2. Supplying information for Congressional testimony or to respond to
8
7 Congressional inquiries
3. Supporting museum exhibits and other public displays
I
I
9 4. Providing credible and relevant content for K-12 audiences and
10 education activities
II
12 In undertaking these activities, the CIWG will:
13
14 • Collaborate across agencies to assist with existing communications efforts
15 • ' Provide resources to implement approved CIWG initiatives, leveraging
16 ongoing agency activities and resources
17 • Work closely with other CCSP interagency working groups
18 • Communicate through existing professional, civic, and other organizations,
19 both at the national and international level, and through the news media, to
20 leverage information dissemination capabilities
21 • Coordinate with the Climate Change Technology Program, when appropriate
22
23 The CIWG will prepare a l-year communications implementation plan which will
24 include specific communications materials and activities, specific benchmarks and time
25 tables; resource requirements and assigned responsibilities as well as the approval proce s
26 for each product. The implementation plan will be reviewed by relevant substantive
27 working groups. The CCSP Principals will review and approve the implementation pi
28
29 Membership and Decision-making
30
31 EOP Offices and all Agencies participating in the CCSP will designate a CIWG
32 representative(s) appointed by their CCSP Principal. An alternate CIWG representative( )
33 from each agency may be designated by either their Principal or primary
34 representative(s). The responsibilities of each CIWG member include attending CIWG
35 meetings, regularly updating their CCSP Principal on CIWG activities, and serving to
36 foster two-way communication between the CIWG and their agency. , I
37
38 The CIWG may establish sub-groups to work on specific issues. Membership in the sub-
39 groups may include representatives of the other CCSP working groups, other agency
40 representatives, and, when appropriate, external stakeholders. A CIWG liaison will be
41 designated from each working group.
42
43 The CIWG will have two Co-Chairs selected from among the CIWG members and
44 approved by the Principals. Co-Chairs will serve a one-year term of office. The
45 responsibilities of the Co-chairs are to conduct CIWG meetings, coordinate CIWG
46 activities, and regularly update the CCSP Office Director.
2
1
2 Internal working group decisions will be made by group consensus. Decisions invol
3 public communication activities or deliverables will be confirmed by the Principals.
4
5 Meeting and Reporting Schedule
6
7 The CIWG will meet regularly. The Co-Chairs will provide updates and briefings to th
8 CCSP Principals, as appropriate. The CCSP Office will maintain agenda, minutes, and
9 other records.
10
II November 10, 2004 draft
- · · - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -.......-----'-----CEQ 0160
1 CCSP PRINCIPALS MEETING
2 Summary of Decisions/Actions and Discussion
3
4 December 1, 2004
5 10:00 a.m, - 12:00 noon
6 Climate Change Science Program Office
7 1717 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW, Suite 250
8
9
10 Attendance
11.
12 James Mahoney, NOAA, Chair
13 Ghassem Asrar, NASA
14 Mitchell Baer, DOE
15 Ronald Birk, NASA
16 Karrigan Bork, DOT
17 William Breed, USAID
18 Margaret Cavanaugh, NSF
19 Mary Cleave, NASA
20 Margarita Conkright, NOAA
21 David Dokken, CCSPO
22 Jerry Elwood, DOE
23 William Farneth, DOS
24 Mary Glackin, NOAA
25 David Goodrich, NOAA
26 Bryan Hannegan, CEQ
27 William Hohenstein, USDA
28 Jack Kaye, NASA
29 Richard Moss, CCSPO
30 Patrick Neale, SI
31 Kathryn Parker, EPA
32 Rick Petty, DOE
33 Rick Piltz, CCSPO
34 Joel Scheraga, EPA
35 Peter Schultz, CCSPO
36 Michael Slimak, EPA
37 Nick Sundt, CCSPO
38 Ahsha Tribble, NOAA
39 Harlan Watson, DOS
40
CEQ 016164
1 DECISIONS AND ACTIONS
2 CCSP Principals Meeting, December 1, 2004
3
DECISIONS
Agenda Description
Item #
5 $17SK from the escrow approved for use by the NRC to continue the activities of
its standing committees until a full proposal for those activities is received and
approved.
11 Future CCSP meetings will generally be held on the first Wednesday of every
month from 3 to 5 PM. The next meeting will be from 3 to 5 PM on January 5,
2005 at CCSPO.
4
5
ACTIONS
Agenda Description Due Responsible
Item # Date Personts)
2.i CCSPO will email the Principals the final Mahoney / Moss
12.08.04
Synthesis and Assessment guidelines within a
few days of the meeting.
2.ii Fourprospecti (2.1, 2.2, 3.1, and 4.7) will be 12.22.04 Moss
released for public review.
2.iii CCSPO will compile information on revised 12.31.04 CCSPO
completion dates for all products originally
slated for completion within two-years.
2.iv Agencies should review the list of S&A lead 12.17.04 CCSP Principals
and supporting personnel and send any
corrections to Peter Schultz by December 17,
2004
3.i CCSP Principals should review the revised 12.17.04 CCSP Principals
OCP production schedule and send comments
to Peter Schultz by December 17,2004.
3.ii IWGs should make every effort to meet the new IWG Co-Chairs via
OCP production schedule. CCSP Principals
6. CCSPO will request that Agencies estimate and 12.08.04 Mahoney.
report on their "directly related" program
budgets at the ne~t Principals meeting.
7. CCSP Principals should review the 12.22:04 CCSP Principals
Communication .iV, j's Terms of Reference and
Implementation Plan and send comments to
Peter Schultz by December 22, 2004. The
Terms of Reference, Implementation Plan, and
nominations for CIWG Co-Chairs will be acted
on at the January Principals meeting.
6
CEQ 016165
1
2 DISCUSSION SUMMARY
3
4
5 1. Decisions!Actions from October 13 CCSP Meeting (Mahoney) (Approval)
6 [Documentation: 1. Principals Meeting Decisions 10-13-04]
7
8 Decision 1: October 13, 2004 decisions and actions approved without amendment.
9
10
11 2. Synthesis and Assessment Products (Mahoney, Moss) (Discussion)
12 [Documentation: 2. S&A Leads, contact info, 11-08-04]
13 a, S&A Products Guidelines update (Information)
14 b. S&A Products status report - near-term plan to release prospectuses (Information)
15
16 Mahoney noted that the Synthesis and Assessment (S&A) guidelines will be released
17 shortly to the CCSP. Moss reported that work on S&A Product 1.1 (temperature trends)
18 has continued, and that four prospecti are nearly ready to be released for public review:
19 2.1 (scenarios), 2.2 (SOCCR), 3.1 (climate models), and 4.7 (transportation). Prospecti
20 for Products 5.1 (decision support for selected sectors and regions) and 5.3 (decision
21 support using short-term climate information) will soon be ready for CCSP review. He
22 indicated that it will be necessary to update the schedules for preparation of the products,
23 and that CCSPO will contact the relevant lead agencies regarding realistic completion
24 dates. CCSP Principals will need to decide how to approach public release of this new
25 information.
26
27 Action 2.i.: CCSPO will distribute the Synthesis and Assessment guidelines to the
28 Principals.
29 Action 2.ii: Four prospecti will be released for public review.
30 Action 2.iii: CCSPO will compile information on revised completion dates for all
31 products originally slated for completion within two-years
. 32 Action 2.iv: Agencies should review the list of lead and supporting personnel and send
th
33 any corrections to Peter Schultz (pschultz@usgcrp.gov) by December 17 for distribution
34 at the next CCSP meeting.
35
36
37 3. Our Changing Planet (Mahoney). Update on process for preparing FY2006 OCP
38 (Information)
39 [Documentation: Revised OCP 06 production schedule.]
40
41 Mahoney discussed the proposed revision to the FY06 OCP production schedule, which
42 delays the release by approximately 1 month. This will still allow the report to be
43 released in conjunction with the President's budget. However, the schedule cannot slip
44 further. It was noted that only four IWGs have submitted complete first drafts, four others
45 have submitted a partial set of materials, and a few IWGs have submitted nothing. Moss
46 thanked the IWGs that met the the initial deadline. Discussion focused on the need to
CEQ 016166
1 revise the draft during review to ensure consistency with the revised budgets that
2 incorporate OMB input.
3
4 Action 3.i.: CCSP Principals should review the revised schedule and send comments to
5 Peter Schultz (pschultz@usgcrp.gov) by December 17.
6
7
8 4. FY2006 Crosscut Budget Analysis (Mahoney) (Discussion)
9 [Documentation: 4. Crosscut budget analysis memo]
10
11 The version distributed for the meeting does not contain FY06 data. Mahoney noted that
12 the cross-cut budget will be used in discussions at a Deputy Secretary level and the
13 upcoming issue of Our Changing Planet.
14
15
16 5. NRC-CCSP Interactions (Asrar, Mahoney)
17 a. Approved terms of reference for long-term NRC advice to CCSP (Information)
18 [Documentation: 5a. CCSP interest in NRC advice 11-18-04]
19 b. NRC standing committee support to CCSP (Decision on first increment of annual
20 support) [Documentation: 5b. FOG Memo to Mahoney 11-23-04]
21 c. Study of climate assessment processes (Discussion, with decision at January
22 Principals meeting) [Documentation: 5c. NRC Assessment Study summary 11-23-04]
23
24 a. Asrar reported significant progress in establishing the working relationship with the
25 National Academies and that the National Academies have participated enthusiastically
26 in a dialogue with CCSP in order to provide the CCSP with needed information. The type
27 of advice to be provided over the next three years is summarized in the document on
28 long-term NRC advice to CCSP. The NRC is developing a specific proposal that
29 responds to this document. Mahoney thanked Asrar for chairing the dialogue process
30 with the NRC. Concerns were raised regarding the budgetary implications of the
31 agreement and the need to subsequently approve support for the NRC's standing
32 committees and for the proposed comparative study of assessment processes. Mahoney
33 reviewed the history ofCCSPIUSGCRP support for the NRC and indicated that the spirit
34 of the current dialogue was to reduce overall costs and use resources efficiently.
35
36 b. The NRC currently has over $lM in escrow pending approval of studies and activities
37 to support CCSP. They are requesting permission to use $175K of this to continue their
38 standing activities until a full proposal has been approved. The Financial Operations
39 Group reviewed this request and recommended approving it.
40
41 Decision 5: $175K from the escrow approved for use by the NRC to continue the
42 activities of its standing committees until a full proposal for those activities is received
43 and approved.
44
45 c. Mahoney invited discussion on the NRC prospectus for a comparative study of climate
46 assessment processes. During discussion, the question was raised whether the proposed
CEQ 016167
1 study had been overtaken by events. Mahoney commented that there may be significant
2 challenges as we move ahead with actually producing the S&A products and Moss noted
3 that such a study would be a tangible follow-up to CCSP's commitment to a "lessons
4 learned" approach in its decision support activities. Several voiced support for the study
5 and indicated a desire to work closely with the NRC in preparing the study. Mahoney
6 indicated that a proposal will be circulated to CCSP for decision in the context of
7 consideration of the NRC proposal.
8
9
10 6. Financial Operations (Spence, Mahoney)
11 a.. Review of ad hoc panel ("Leinen committee") recommendations (Information)
12 [Documentation: 6a. Leinen Panel Report]
13 b. FY2005 budget request (pending with FOG) (Information)
14 c. Resolution of accounts in arrears (Information)
. 15
16 Mahoney described the context for the Leinen Committee report and briefly reviewed its
17 contents. He noted that the decision to base agency contributions to distributed costs was
18 not intended to increase the distributed cost budget but to reapportion the burden among
19 agencies to better reflect the size of agency budgets. The Leinen memo recommended the
20 new formula for agency assessments, which includes "directly related" costs, be
21 implemented during FY05.
22
23 Action 6: CCSPO will request that Agencies estimate and report on their "directly
24 related" program budgets at the next Principals meeting.
25
26
27 7. Communications (Mahoney, Parker). Draft Communications Interagency Working
28 Group Terms of Reference and FY2005 Implementation Plan (Discussion, with decision
29 at January Principals meeting)
30 [Documentation: 7. Comm IWG, TOR draft, 11-10-04; 7. Comm IWG, Implementation
31 Plan draft, 11-10-04]
32
33 Parker outlined the extensive the efforts of the Communications IWG (CIWG) to draft a
34 Terms of Reference and FY05 Implementation Plan. She encouraged the Principals to
35 give higher priority to communications activities, requested review of the draft
36 documents, and requested CCSP approval for the CIWG recommendation that she and
37 Keya Chaterjee (NASA) serve as co-chairs of the group. Mahoney concurred regarding
38 the importance of communications and clarified that the draft Terms of Reference call for
39 the CCSP Principals to approve new communications products. He also noted that
40 CCSP's communication activities will generally not be rapid-turnaround in nature.
41
42 Questions were raised regarding funding for activities in the CIWG's Implementation
43 Plan. Moss noted that the CCSPO does not have additional funds to implement the
44 IWG's plans and stressed that "the CCSP coordinates and the agencies implement."
45
CEQ 016168
1 Action 7: CCSP Principals should review the Communication IWG's Terms of
2 Reference and Implementation Plan and send comments to Peter Schultz
3 (pschultz@usgcrp.gov) by December 22. The Terms of Reference, Implementation Plan,
4 and nominations for CIWG Co-Chairs will be acted on at the January Principals meeting.
5
6
7 8. Proposed CCSP Specialty Workshop in 2005 (Mahoney). (Discussion, with
8 decision at January Principals meeting)
9
10 Mahoney tabled a proposal for a CCSP workshop in Autumn 2005 to focus on: (1)
11 discussion of the ongoing S&A products; (2) dialogue with stakeholders regarding the
12 decision-support activities described in the Strategic Plan. The need for this workshop
13 arises in part from the fact that the CCSP doesn't currently have a mechanism for input
14 from the community. It will likely be held in autumn 2005. A modest registration fee may
15 be required along with agency funding. This item will be raised again for decision at the
16 January meeting.
17
18
19 9. Responses to the Letter from Representative Udall (OSTP) (Information)
20
21 Mahoney described the status of the response to this set of questions, which is being .
22 handled by OSTP. Agency-wide review of the responses will occur shortly.
23
24
25 10. COP-10 Update (Tribble). Update on agency plans for Buenos Aires (Information)
26
27 NOAA is playing a lead role in the U.S. exhibits at the event. The first week will focus
28 on U.S. activities; the second week will focus on international activities.
29
30
31 11. Establish Standard Monthly Date for Principals Meeting (Decision)
32
33 Decision 11: Future CCSP meetings will generally be held on the ftrst Wednesday of .
34 every month from 3 to 5 PM. The next meeting will be from 3 to 5 PM on January 5,
35 2005 at CCSPO.
36
37
38 Meeting adjourned.
CEQ 016169
DRAFT
crwG Implementation Plan
Calendar Year 2005
For CCSP Principals review
December 23.2005
Strategy: The eIWG will provide support to CCSP, its participating agencies and
working groups on matters of communication, including the development and
coordination of communications infrastructure, products and activities.
Roles and Responsibilities: The eIWG will recommend communication products and
activities to the CCSP Principals and participate in the development of these
communication products. As with other CCSP working groups, CIWG representatives
will leverage activities and resources of participating agencies to implement
communications initiatives approved by the CCSP Principals, including those outlined in
this implementation plan. CIWG will provide the CCSP Principals with a statement of
resources that are needed to carry out this plan. .
Approval Process: Product approval will be consistent with the CIWG Terms of
Reference and with the established cesp guidelines and protocols as follows:
• Concept approval: Each new product and activity identified in this
implementation plan will receive concept approval upon final acceptance of
this plan by the CIWG and CCSP Principals. Any additional products will be
submitted as concepts to the CIWG then to' the Principals for approval.
• Product approval: Each draft product will be reviewed by the CIWG (with
input from each member's agencies). Once approved by the CIWG, it will be
submitted to the Principals for approval. The final draft, reflecting comments
by the Principals, will be submitted to the CCSP Director and the Executive
Secretary of the IWGCCST for final approval and public release.
Functions: eIWG has identified the following functions, related products and activities
as key areac of focus for meeting its stated mission and goal for the coming year. The
CIWG will initiate programs, activities and products in these areas aimed at the effective
implementation and coordination of communications activities for CCSP.
CEQ 016210
1. Media Relations - when requested by the CCSP Director, assisting in
communicating on matters relating to climate science. Products and activities may
include:
A. Development and review of media strategies, communications plans, press
releases, talking points, Q&As and other materials as required for
upcoming CCSP announcements
B. Upcoming products and activities of significance to media:
1. Draft Prospectuses for Synthesis and Assessment Products
2. FY2006 Our Changing Planet
3. Program announcements and Research highlights
. II. Public Outreach - developing materials and methods for public outreach on issues
related to climate science and the activities and products ofCCSP. These outreach
activities should emphasize links to CCSP to help establish a recognizable
program identity. CIWG will facilitate coordination of CCSP agency
communication activities that involve similar climate science topics. CIWG will
help develop materials and strategies to reach out to key audiences through
various mechanisms, including:
A. Basic CCSP information: these products will consist of short (1-2 page)
summaries taken from existing reviewed and approved documents, such as
Our Changing Planet and the Strategic Plan. Part of the product
development will include a standardized "look and feel" that will be used
in future products. Products to be completed over a 3-month period, from
date of implementation plan approval. Products include overviews of the
following: CCSP, Strategic Plan, funding, synthesis & assessment
products, research elements/agency activities.
B. Climate change science fundamentals: the CIWG will review existing
climate change science information materials and evaluate the need for
additional products. Products on climate change science fundamentals
may include FAQs and educational fact sheets. Any proposed products
will require concept approval from the crwG and CCSP Principals, and
will borrow heavily on material already produced by the CCSP and
member agencies, the NRC, and the IPCC.
C. Quarterly featured topics: these will focus on highlighting cross-agency
research efforts. The approach will be to capitalize on research areas
where an existing event is already scheduled or has taken place. The goal
will be to address one topic per quarter through fact sheets and other .
outreach materials. Stakeholder engagement will be sought, when feasible.
Possible topics include: ecosystems, land cover/land use, carbon cycle
(NACP), water cycle, arctic programs, and temperature trends (based on
the first prospectus).
D. CCSP working group documents: the crwG, through liaisons with the
working groups will assist in producing outreach materials in conjunction
with the release of research products.
E. Science conferences and briefings: the crwG will identify opportunities
for outreach to specific audiences through constituent briefings, exhibits at
CEQ 016211
science conferences, and placing CCSP speakers on panels. CCSP will be
represented by its constituent agencies or the CCSPO at conference
symposia and other similar functions, when possible. The crwG will
encourage agencies with a long-established presence at these events to put
forward CCSP messages and identify their affiliation with CCSP.
Ill, Web Sites. Develop and advance a strategy for improving, integrating, and
promoting the content of Web sites operated or supported by CCSP and its
participating agencies recognizing that the sites are essential communication and
outreach tools. Any recommendations for substantial changes in web site format,
linkages, and coverage shall be approved by the CCSP Principals before
implementation. Ongoing, day-to-day oversight of CCSPO web activities will be
provided by the CCSPO Director.
CEQ 016212
..
Cooney, Phil
Ttl
Decisions & Actions
03-02-05.p...
Attached is a summary of the decisions, actions, and discussion from the 2
March 2005 CCSP principals meeting. It will be an item for discussion and approval at the
next principals meeting, which will take place on Wednesday, April 6 at 2:30 PM at CCSPO.
Cheers,
Peter
001837
CEQ 016292
I CCSP PRINCIPALS MEETING
2 Summary of Decisions/Actions and Discussion
3
4 2 March 2005
5 2:30 p.m. - 6:00 p.m.
6 Climate Change Science Program Office
7 1717 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW, Suite 250
8
9
10 Attendance
1I
12 James Mahoney, NOAA, Chair
13 David Allen, CCSPO
14 James Andrews, DOD
15 Ko Barrett, USAID
16 Karrigan Bark (tel.), DOT
17 Lou Brown, NSF
18 Mary Cleave, NASA
19 Margarita Conkright-Gregg, NOAA
20 David Dokken, CCSPO
21 Jerry Elwood, DOE
22 William Farneth, DOS
23 David Halpern, OSTP
24 Bryan Hannegan (tel.), CEQ
25 William Hohenstein, USDA
26 Jack Kaye, NASA
27 Chet Koblinsky, NOAA
28 Nicholas Lancaster, USGS
29 Margaret Leinen, NSF
30 Thomas Mampilly (tel.), HHS
31 Margaret McCalla, NOAA
32 Richard Moss, CCSPO
33 Patrick Neale (teL), SI
34 Rick Petty, DOE
-35 Gloria Rapalee, CCSPO
36 Peter Schultz, CCSPO "
CEQ 016293
1 DECISIONS AND ACTIONS
2 CCSP Principals Meeting, 2 March 2005
3
DECISIONS
Agenda Description
ltem#
2 The 2 February 2005 Decisions and Actions Summarv was approved.
4 The draft General Terms ofReference for Interagency Working Groups was
approved in principle.
7 50% of the CCSPO Director's salary will be added to the CCSPO funding request
for FY05. 100% will be included in future years. Funding for other agency
detailees will not be provided through the distributed cost budget.
4
ACTIONS
Agenda Description Dne Date Responsible
ltem# Person(s) / Group
4 The draft General Terms ofReference for 03.16.05 Schultz
Interagency Working Groups will be revised
in accordance with the comments from the
Principals. The revised document will be
distributed to the IWG Co-Chairs for their
review and comment.
6.i All CCSP agencies will seek detailees to ASAP CCSP agencies
serve at CCSPO.
6.ii Dr. Mahoney and CCSPO will issue a 03.16.05 Mahoney and
description of CCSPO staffing needs to assist CCSPO
agencies in identifying appropriate detailees.
7.i Dr. Mahoney will contact Dr. Evans 03.30.05 Mahoney
regarding SI's contribution to the CCSP
distributed cost budget.
7.ii Drs. Mahoney and Tribble will continue to 03.30.05 Mahoney and
attempt to resolve the HHS arrears issue and Tribble
may consult with Dr. Halpern, if necessarv.
9 Dr. Glackin will invite representatives of ASAP Glackin
other CCSP agencies to serve on the .'
CEQ 016294
1 DISCUSSION SUMMARY
2
3 1. Agency Update - NOAA (Kaye) (Information)
4
5 Jack Kaye described the NASA vision, mission, and goals. He outlined NASA's
6 transformed and streamlined organizational structure and how it is continuing to evolve.
7 He also described the substantial contributions that NASA's observations, research, and
8 applications activities make to CCSP. Kaye's PowerPoint briefing file <NASA-
9 CCSPMar2005.ppt> [15 MB] may be accessed via the password-protected CCSP
10 repository:
11 http://www.usgcrp.gov/files
12 usemame = ccsp-info
13 password = XtraXtra
14 Kaye offered to give extended versions of this briefing to other agencies. James Mahoney
15 thanked Kaye and noted that NASA's sense of scientific vision should be embraced by
16 CCSP.
17
18
19 2. Decisions!Actions from February 2, 2005 CCSP Meeting (Mahoney) (Approval)
20 [Materials: 2. Decisions & Actions, 02-02-05.pdf]
21
22 Decision 2: The 2 February 2005 Decisions and Actions Summary was approved.
23
24
25 3. Our Changing Planet (Mahoney, Moss, Conkright) (Information)
26 Update on preparation of FY2006 OCP
27
28 Mahoney noted that Rick Piltz, who has facilitated production of Our Changing Planet
29 (OCP), has elected to resign from his position with CCSPO. Mahoney acknowledged
30 Piltz's long and outstanding service. His departure places strain on CCSPO to facilitate
31 production of OCP. Richard Moss reported that OCP has been delayed somewhat, but
32 that it may be possible to have an approved draft by May. Complete drafts of all OCP
33 chapters now exist. Once revisions have been made by the IWGs on their chapters, a
34 complete OCP draft will be prepared. This draft will be reviewed by EOP. A complete
35 draft will subsequently be sent to CCSP agencies and IWGs for technical review. The
36 revision and approval process will conclude with a clearance review.
37
38 Margarita Conkright-Gregg reported that nearly all of the necessary budget information
39 has been compiled for OCP. NASA said that they require additional time to finalize their
40 budget. Mahoney said that we may need to use the best estimate from NASA and
41 "asterisk it" to indicate that the NASA numbers are not final. Mahoney also called
42 attention to the item in the FY06 President's Budget Analysis that will require formal
43 tracking of CCSP deliverables (pg. 65 of OMB 's Analytical Perspectives on the FY 2006
44 budget).
45
CEQ 016295
1 Mahoney noted the large amount of work required to produce OCP as well as the
2 elaborate process associated with the CCSP Synthesis and Assessment (S&A) products.
3 The purpose of OCP is to serve as a rationale for the annual budget. It should not be
4 viewed as the "final word" on the scienceof climate change. He said that, in the future,
5 CCSP should consider reducing the technical detail of the report. The focus for assessing
6 the science should be with the S&A products.
7
8
9 4. Interagency Working Groups (Mahoney, Moss, Schultz) (Decision)
10 Functions of the CCSP Interagency Working Groups. Development ofa general
11 Terms of Reference.
12 [Materials: 4. IWG, General TOR, draft.pdfj
13
14 Mahoney noted that the Interagency Working Groups (IWGs) have not had clear
15 guidance on how they should operate. The draft General Terms ofReference ("4. IWG,
16 General TOR, draft.pdf") is a key step toward providing such guidance. It is intended to
17 promote a degree of consistency across the IWGs and to help ensure that the CCSP's key
18 objectives are met. Once it has been reviewed/revised in consultation with the IWG Co-
19 Chairs and approved by the Principals, IWGs will be asked to revise their existing TORs
20 to be consistent with this document. .
21
22 The Principals made several comments on the draft General Terms ofReference that will
23 be incorporated in the revised version that will be submitted to the IWG Co-Chairs.
24 These revisions pertain to the following issues: qualifications and authority of IWG
25 members; responsibilities of support staff; lengthening Co-Chairs' terms; lWG purpose;
26 IWG involvement in Synthesis and Assessment reports; IWG funding; IWG decision
27 making; the differing applicability of the General Terms ofReference to the research
28 lWGs, the Communications lWG, and the FOG; termination of IWGs; and copy editing
29 the General Terms ofReference.
30
31 Decision 4: The draft General Terms ofReference for Interagency Working Groups was
32 approved in principle.
33
34 Action 4: The draft General Terms ofReference for Interagency Working Groups will be
35 revised in accordance with the comments from the Principals. The revised document will
36 be distributed to the IWG Co-Chairs for their review and comment.
37
38
39 5. NRC-CCSP interactions (Mahoney) (Discussion)
40
41 Mahoney said that there is general agreement on the need for the NRC's CCSP Advisory
42 Committee and the NRC's special study on assessments. CCSP is still in discussion with
43 the NRC on the role of its topical committees. CCSP has requested that the NRC seek
44 ways of increasing the responsiveness of the Climate Research Committee and
45 Committee on Human Dimensions of Global Change to CCSP needs. Mahoney noted
46 that these committees provide the program with an important window on relevant
CEQ 016296
1 scientific communities. He intends to have the entire NRC funding package for CCSP
2 approval next month.
3
4
5 6. Meeting the increased workload demand in the CCSP Office (Mahoney)
6
7 Mahoney said that CCSPO is "facing a train wreck" because it is currently understaffed
8 to meet the demands placed on it by CCSP. New demands on the office include: the S&A
9 reports; the CCSP workshop; preparation of the 4th US Climate Action Report; and
10 formally tracking CCSP deliverables (as per the FY06 OMB Analytical Perspectives). In
11 addition, the terms of three federal employees detailed toCCSPO have ended and two
12 full-time CCSPO staff have recently resigned.
13
14 Mahoney indicated that 3-4 agency detailees are needed at least through the end of this
15 calendar year. Candidates for secondment should be prepared to work nearly full-time for
16 CCSPO. Suggestions were made to acquire individuals from various fellowship
17 programs, although it was also noted that previous efforts to acquire fellows (e.g., Sea
18 Grant Fellows) have failed. Mahoney said that CCSPO does not have the luxury of time
19 to meet its increased workload demand and to fill recently vacated staff positions. Mike
20 Slimak indicated that he will look into assigning an EPA-AAAS fellow to work at
21 CCSPO. Mary Cleave noted that NASA is attempting to identify a replacement for Bob
22 Cahalan. Mahoney asked each agency to investigate the possibility of seconding a.
23 qualified individual to CCSPO.
24
25 Action 6.i: All CCSP agencies will seek detailees to serve at CCSPO.
26
27 Action 6.ii: Dr. Mahoney and CCSPO will issue a description of CCSPO staffing needs
28 to assist agencies in identifying appropriate detailees.
29
30
31 7. Financial operations (Spence, Mahoney)
32 7.a. FY2005 omnibus budget request (Decision)
33 [Materials: 6.1 FOG Memo for FY200S.pdf
34 6.2 Table 1. FY200S Dist Cost Recommendations.pdf
35 6.3 Table 2. Agency Assessments FY200S.pdf]
36
37 Spence gave a briefing on the Financial Operation Group's recommendations for use of
38 CCSP's distributed cost funds in FY05. Spence's PowerPoint briefing file
39 <FOGBriefing_CCSP-Mar2005.ppt> [100 KB] can be accessed via the password-
40 protected CCSP repository:
41 http://www.usgcrp.gov/files
42 usemame = ccsp-info
43 password = XtraXtra
44
CEQ 016297
1 The request to the CCSP distributed cost fund is via an omnibus proposal from four
2 different entities: CCSPO, International Programs, IPCC, and the NRC. (As noted
3 previously, the NRC proposal is not yet finalized.)
4
5 The total FY05 request from these activities is $5,679K. FOG recommends a funding
6 level of $5,320 (i.e., 6.3% below the request). Spence outlined the proposed agency
7 assessments for the distributed cost budget. Details on the FY05 requests, FOG
8 recommendations, and proposed agency assessments are contained in the aforementioned
9 PowerPoint file.
10
11 There was some discussion about the possibility of providing a more complete definition
12 of "directly related" activities prior to next year's budget cycle.
13
14 Spence said that FOG recommends that the CCSPO Director's salary I be paid by CCSP
15 and requested a decision from the Principals on this. There was general concurrence
16 among the Principals to accept FOG's recommendation, but to phase it in gradually.
17
18 Decision 7: 50% of the CCSPO Director's salary will be added to the CCSPO funding
19 request for FY05. 100% will be included in future years. Funding for other agency
20 detailees will not be provided through the distributed cost budget.
21
22 There was discussion about the roles of CCSPO staff and the need for improved
23 communication from CCSP regarding its expectations ofCCSPO. Comments were made
24 concerning the insufficiency of current CCSPO human resources to address the range of
25 activities for which CCSPO is responsible. There was also discussion about the potential
26 implications ofa funding reduction for the International IWG ..
27
28 Leinen requested that a decision on the FOG's funding recommendations be deferred, to
29 allow more time to consider the implications of potential funding reductions. Mahoney
30 tabled a decision on the allocation of distributed cost funds until the April Principals
31 meeting.
32
33 7.b. Status ofarrears payments (Information)
34
35 It was noted that HHS and USAID did not provide funding to the CCSP distributed cost
36 budget last year and SI provided approximately half the CCSP-requested amount. Ko..,
37 Barrett said that USAID intends to contribute fully to the distributed cost budget. Patrick
38 Neale said that he is currently inquiring about Sl's contributions to the program and
39 recommended that Mahoney contact Dave Evans directly about this.
40
41 Action 7.i: Dr. Mahoney will contact Dr. Evans regarding Sl's contribution to the CCSP
42 distributed cost budget.
43
I The CCSPO Director is a DOE contractor whose salary is currently not included in the distributed cost
budget.
CEQ 016298
1 If $200K funding from HHS is not received, additional funding from the agencies will be
2 required or the CCSP funding allotments will need to be reduced. Mahoney reported that
3 efforts are underway to obtain an answer from HHS on distributed cost funding and
4 participation in the CCSP process. Moss noted that even more important than the budget
5 issue is the imperative of involving the unique technical capabilities of HHS in the
6 health-related challenges associated with CCSP. Mahoney said that ifHHS ultimately
7 fails to contribute financially to CCSP, they should not be named as a full CCSP
8 participant. Halpern offered the possibility of attempting to resolve the issue through the
9 EOP via the budget examiners.
10
11 Action 7.ii: Drs. Mahoney and Tribble will continue to attempt to resolve the HHS
12 arrears issue and may consult with Dr. Halpern, if necessary.
13
14
15 8. Synthesis and Assessment Products (Mahoney)
16 a. Policy on incorporating dissenting views in S&A Products (Decision)
17 [Materials: 7. Addressing a dissident view, draft.pdf]
18 b. Update (Information)
19
20 Due to time constraints, discussion of this item was deferred to the April meeting.
21
22
23 9. CCSP Specialty Workshop (Mahoney) (Information)
24 Update on plans for the workshop in late 2005.
25 [Materials: 9. CCSP Workshop, announcement, draft.pdf]
26
27 Mary Glackin has agreed to serve as the Chair of the workshop's steering committee.
28 NOAA will also provide support staff for the workshop. Glackin will seek agency
29 representatives to serve on the steering committee..
30
31 Action 9: Dr. Glackin will invite representatives of other CCSP agencies to serve on the
32 workshop steering committee.
33
34
35 10. CCSP assistance in the drafting ofthe fourth U.S. Climate Action Report (CAR-
36 4) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (Mahoney) (Discussion)
37
38 Department of State is leading preparation of the fourth U.S. Climate Action Report to
39 the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. CCSP has been asked to take the
40 lead on two of the report's chapters dealing with Vulnerability, Assessment, Climate
41 Change Impacts and Adaptation Measures and Research and Systematic Observation.
42 Mahoney distributed an outline of work responsibilities for accomplishing this, along
43 with a general schedule.
44
45
46
CEQ 016299
I 11. GAO Exit Conference discussions (Mahoney) (Information)
2
3 GAO undertook an investigation of the CCSP at the behest of Senators McCain and
4 Kerry. The focus of the investigation was on the legal mandate for a wide ranging
5 assessment by the program every 4 years. GAO has given Mahoney an opportunity to
6 comment on the draft findings. GAO will send their final findings and recommendations
7 to the study's congressional sponsors and to CCSP.
8
9
10 Meeting adjourned.
CEQ 016300
Page 1 of 1
To all-
We have received the attached draft report from GAO, Climate Change Assessment: Administration Did
Not Submit Assessment When Required and Needs Well Developed Plan to Meet Content Requirements.
I have already briefed Secretary Gutierrez, Deputy Secretary Kassinger, Undersecretary Lautenbacher
and NOAA Chief of Staff Rayder about this report, and I am sending it to the new addressees above to
advise you about its receipt. We are preparing a draft response and talking points for review by the
addressees. Please contact me by email or telephone if you have questions or comments. I will be in a
NOAA Science Advisory Board meeting during the next two days, but my secretary can forward your
messages (if any) to me.
Jim Mahoney
Background:
o A draft report was issued on March 17, 2005 for review and comment by DOC. The
final report is intended to be submitted to Congress (Senator John McCain and
Senator John Kerry) on April 14, 2005.
CEQ 016349
DRAFf Q&As - DO NOT Crn.CULATE March 25, 20Q5
Q&As
Q. You did not submit a scientific assessment in 2004, as required by the GCRA.
Are you doing an assessment?
The Administration has taken a more focused approach to the development of a national
assessment as described in the CCSP Strategic Plan. CCSP has identified 21 Synthesis
and Assessment products to be prepared over the next few years. These products cover a
full range of goals and include assessments of scientific issues, information on adaptation
options, and comparative evaluations of different approaches for addressing climate
variability and change. Taken together, these assessment products will comprise the
Administration's response to the requirements for assessment under the 1990 GCRA.
It took the previous Administration nearly a decade to issue the first element of its first
assessment (November 2000) after Act came into effect in 1990. And even then, the
more detailed, significant reports were published as late as 2003. This is a sure indication
that the complexity of the effort envisioned by Congress cannot be reasonably
accomplished within four years. CCSP believes that tJ!e_ ~Jl!~~cJ1_ 8!1~_t!J!?~li~f'J.!.!l~ . _- '{)=D=e=leted==:T========<
outlined with the 21 Synthesis and Assessment products being released on a rolling basis - - ..-( Deleted: thatCCSP
and updated every four years represents an essential and prudent balance of quality and
timeliness.
Q. GAO says that you have ignored elements of the assessment requirements in
Section 106 or peripherally addressed them (l.e., human health and welfare and
human social systems). Do you feel that your 21 assessment adequately address
these issues?
The dissemination of the Synthesis and Assessment reports will provide a snapshot of
knowledge of the environmental and socio-economic aspects of climate variability and
change. We are engaging the National Academy of Sciences - National Research
Council to provide advice on the relevant aspects of the Climate Change Science
Program, including recommendations on areas that need further emphasis. Moreover, the
lead authors of the reports will be asked to document how ,t,b~i[..e!fo!~s add~es~ 0!le 9~ _.. ... ( Deleted: they intend to respond to the
more assessment areas of tile Act as they develop their prospectuses and will have the
opportunity to modify or extend their report's coverage, if needed. We may also
commission additional reports, if needed, to cover specific topics that are found to be
insufficiently addressed.
CEQ 016350
DRAFT' Q&As - DO NOT CIRCULATE March 25, 2005
While preparing the CCSP Strategic Plan, we underestimated the complexity and scope
of the work involved in producing the reports. We developed an overly ambitious
timeline. The development of the Guidelines for preparing the assessments was al so
delayedin order to~n~~lre cornplianc~ ~1tJ1)!lt;\ R.a!~ ~~l~_~£t_ap.~_Q~J~_ P~.L~~v_i~~ ,,- -ILD_e:....let_ed_:~comp-'-ly=-- ~
Guidelines as they apply to public government documents.
Q. Are you considering asking Congress for an extension on the time frame of the
next assessment?
CCSP willdeterminetheJ.)ecessary ~i!I!.eJ!~e !~q,uiJ~d t~ ~e_et !h_e a.s~~ssme!.1t ' _' - -r Deleted: prescribed
requirements of the Act, taking into account the schedule of report production for the
prior assessment (between late 2000 and 2003) ancl the anticipated schedule for the 21
Synthesis and Assessment products. CCSP..~y!l~...[e_C}!l~~.!-..a.!1_e_x!e..n§!o_n_~J!l_G<?l!@'~s§~ if -:' - .1 ~=~:.\~~~:p~ ~::~::~r
necessary. ',
Deleted: develop a
i Deleted: for
CEQ 016351
Page 1 of 1
, ,
Hannegan, Bryan J.
Ahsha - please find attached my comments on the background and Q&As on the CCSP response to the GAO
report, which should be also reflected in the 2-page formal response as well (given that they use the same
materials). Please call or write with any cuestlons. Thanks, Bryan
Good afternoon,
We are on a very short time schedule to respond to the GAO Draft Report on the climate ..
change assessment. I have attached the following documents for your review:
If you have any questions, please call me at 202-482-5920 or 202-997-5384 (cell). Thank you
in advance. Have a great weekend.
Ahsha
*******************************************~
Ahsha N. Tribble, Ph.D.
Technical Chief of Staff
Office of Assistant Secretary of Commerce
For Oceans and Atmosphere I
,, ,I
HCHS!Room 5804 t-.--!
14th & Constitution Ave, NW / f
e
;
Washington, DC 20230
202-482-3567 (DOC)
202-482-6318 (Fax)
***************************************~****
Background:
o A draft report was issued on March 17,2005 for review and comment by DOC. The
final report is intended to be submitted to Congress (Senator John McCain and
Senator John Kerry) on April 14,2005.
CEQ 016372
DRAFT Q&As - DO NOT CIRCULATE March 25, 2005
Q&As
Q. You did not submit a scientific assessment in 2004, as required by the GCRA.
Are you doing an assessment?
The Administration has taken a more focused approach to the development of a national
assessment as described in the CCSP Strategic Plan. CCSP has identified 21 Synthesis
and Assessment products to be prepared over the next few years. These products cover a
full range of goals and include assessments of scientific issues, information on adaptation
options, and comparative evaluations of different approaches for addressing climate
variability and change. Taken together, these assessment products will comprise the
Administration's response to the requirements for assessment under the 1990 GCRA.
It took the previous Administration nearly a decade to issue the first element of its first
assessment (November 2000) after Act came into effect in 1990. And even then, the
more detailed, significant reports were published as late as 2003. This is a sure indication
that the complexity of the effort envisioned by Congress cannot be reasonably
accomplished within four years. CCSP believes that ijle_ aJ>P!~~c,!l_ a_n~_t~":I~Iit!.eJ! ~~~ .. -{>=DeI=eted~=:T ======4
outlined with the 21 Synthesis and Assessment products being released on a rolling basis - - "1 Deleted: thatcCSP
and updated every four years represents an essential and prudent balance of quality and
timeliness.
Q. GAO says tbat you have ignored elements of the assessment requirements in
Section 106 or peripherally addressed tbem (i.e., human bealtb and welfare and
human social systems). Do you feel that your 21 assessment adequately address
these issues?
The dissemination of the Synthesis and Assessment reports will provide a snapshot of
knowledge of the environmental and socio-economic aspects of climate variability and
change. We are engaging the National Academy of Sciences - National Research
Council to provide advice on the relevant aspects ofthe Climate Change Science
Program, including recommendations on areas that need further emphasis. Moreover, the-
lead authors of the reports will be asked to document how ..l!l.e~r_efforts add~ess one or . - .( Deleted: they intend to re,pond to the 1
more asseSSIll(:<nt areas of the Act as they develop their prospectuses and will have the
opportunity to modify or extend their report's coverage, ifneeded. We may also
commission additional reports, if needed, to cover specific topics that are found to be
insufficiently addressed.
CEQ 016373
'.'
DRAFT Q&As.- DO NOT CIRCULATE March 25,2005
T<;~_SJ>_ is ~~tpp!i!t~~ to proy!<!e_p.ohcy:r~~e'y~~ ~1.J!l!I!l~_ i!lfo.~a!i~!1 y~i!~i!1_e~~~ P~O~~~~ _- - - Deleted: DOC/CCSP understands the
I ~tl:!e. reports are staggered, we will.£onsider the practicality and utility of also providing.
an overall summary at Ii sillgle- pomtin-time. - - - - - -. - - - - . - .... - - ". -.. .. . '\:~-,
rationale behind the GAO
recommendation.
\. "
Deleted: Because
Deleted: keep Congress and the public
, advised about
Q. Why are you late on your self-imposed schedule for the 21 Synthesis and Deleted: doing
Assessment Products as identified in the CCSP Strategic Plan?
While preparing the CCSP Strategic Plan, we underestimated the complexity and scope
of the work involved in producing the reports. We developed an overly ambitious
timeline. The development of the Guidelines for preparing the assessments was also
delayed in order to;nslJre_c0.!TIRI~a!l~ewjt]1_t~~ 'p_a~ 9~~Uty.~~t_a.!l~S?~P.~e.r)~ev.i~w.. - -{....;De_leted~_:c_o_m:..ply:..-. ----.J
Q. Are you considering asking Congress for an extension on the time frame of the
next assessment?
CCSP will determine theJ]~ce~s_a~ !i!.l1_eJ!l!.~~ required to me~t the. as~e.s.sll1ent .' - ~: prescribed
requirements of the Act, taking into account the schedule of report production for the
prior assessment (between late 2000 and 2003) and the anticipated schedule for the 21
Synthesis and Assessment products. CCSP T~il~..[e~u~stJl!1_e?'te_n_s~o!1fr<:lI!1_Go.n_gr~s~,_ if __'" Deleted: will comply with the time
frame delcxminod to be appropriate or
necessary. "
Deleted: develop a
Deteted: for
CEQ 016374
DRAFT TALKING POINTS February 12, 2004
• The plan incorporated the ongoing U.S. Global Change Research Program
(USGCRP) with the Climate Change Research Initiative (CCRI) created by
President Bush.
• The first NRC report released nearly a year ago (February 27, 2003) yieldeg
specific recommendations in four broad areas. They suggested that we:
a Clarify the vision, goals, and priorities of CCSP
a Better fill the need for managing climate and global change
information
a Improve the program management description
a Enhance linkages and communication
CEQ 016386
DRAFT TALKING POINTS February 12, 2004
• This effort resulted in the updated CCSP Strategic Plan released on July 24,
2003. This updated plan responds directly to NRC recommendations in that it
o Clarifies the relationship between the CCRI and the USGCRP ana
describes in detail the single program management structure for
both programs; and
• For example, the NRC recommended that we better describe a strategy for
achieving an integrated observing system for detecting and understanding
climate variability and change.
• We thank the NRC for its thoughtful comments and suggestions, and we are
pleased to address their further comments as we continue to implement the
CCSP strategic plan.
CEQ 016387
WORKING DRAFT - TO BE AUGMENTED WITH SPECIFIC CITATIONS OF THE
NRC FINDINGS WHEN THEY BECOME AVAILABLE
"I am pleased that the National Research Council has continued their review of
the U.S. Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan and today released their follow-
on analysis of our updated plan. Their report shows that our updated Strategic Plan
highlights the importance of global change research and clearly describes the priorities,
goals, and milestones that will provide timely, comprehensive and sustained climate
information needed by our Nation.
"In revising our Strategic Plan, the CCSP incorporated recommended changes and
other revisions suggested by a wide range of reviewers, including the NRC. We paid
particular attention to improving the process of soliciting and incorporating input from
the national and international scientific and stakeholder communities, and the NRC
acknowledges that fact.
"We thank the NRC for its thoughtful comments and suggestions, and are pleased
to address these new comments as we continue to implement the CCSP Strategic Plan
and improve our scientific understanding of climate variability and change."
CEQ 016388
DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT DRAFT
Under President Bush's leadership, the resources of 13 federal agencies were dedicated to
creating this U.S. Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan, the first such plan in
over a decade. The federal government spends approximately $2 billion annually to
advance the scientific understanding of global climate change, and this ten-year strategic
plan provides a critical roadmap for reducing key uncertainties. I want to thank the
National Research Council for their reviews of the plan and for their recommendations.
As we move forward with the implementation of this plan, the expertise of the NRC and
other interested parties will continue to shape and inform the science needed to address
this global challenge.
###
CEQ 016389
Page 1 of 2
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _• R."_ ...
Recommend-you stick closely to the talking points -- and make it quite clear that CCSP will not be doing a "new
Nationalassessment" but ratherthan you are doing the assessmentactivity called for underthe Global Change
Research Act through the 21 Synthesis and Assessment deliverables.
_._-----------
From: Ahsha Tribble (mailto:Ahsha.Tribble@noaa.gov]
sent: Monday, April 25, 2005 12:47 PM
To: Cooney, Phil; Hannegan, Bryan J.
Subject: GAO Meeting with Hill Staff
We will be going to visit Hill staff (see email msg below) tomorrow regarding the GAO report
tomorrow afternoon. Would you find it useful to have a quick phone conversation later today or
late morning tomorrow on strategy or do you feel that we should stick to our talkers.
Thanks,
Ahsha
Here are the details on the meeting requested by Floyd DesChamps on the results of the GAO report
commissioned by Sens. McCain and Kerry:
********************************************
Ahsha N. Tribble, Ph.D.
A /1 "'tlfQ 016500
Page 2of2
A 11""''"'C~ 016501
From: Cooney, Phil
To: Etheridge, Dorothy;
CC: Peel, Kenneth L.; Hannegan, Bryan J.; Holbrook, William F.;
St. Martin, Michele M.;
Subject: FW: ASSIGNMENT -- PREPARA nON OF ONE-PAGE
FACT SHEETS ON CLIMATE PROGRAMS
Date: Friday, May 13,20052:18:01 PM
Attachments: CCRI Ipager.doc
CCSP Plan Ipager.doc
GEOSS lpage.doc
Ahsha.Tribble.vcf
Phil,
I have attached the 3 I-pagers that were tasked to NOAA. Once cleared by CEQ,
we are prepared to format them with graphics, as appropriate.
Thank you,
Ahsha
CEQ 016654
drafts by next Wednesday, May 11, following the recommended
format provided below and inserted as a separate document to this e-
mail. We anticipate continued interest and attention to this issue in
the next few months and want to be prepared to inform
policymakers of not only thee-breadth of activities and programs we
are now pursuing to address this issue, but also a little more depth
than our current White House Fact Sheet (posted on the White
House website) now provides. At the risk of getting one or two of
these assignments wrong, I would ask the following individuals to
supervise the preparation of these fact sheets on the following topics
(and if you have more ideas on additional topics, please let me ,
know or just go ahead and prepare a draft). In advance, thank you
for yourattention to this effort. Phil
TOPICS:
CEQ 016655
please share drafts with EPA, DOT and USDA first)
13. EPA Climate Leaders Program (JeffHolmsteadlKathleen
Hogan, EPA)
14. EPA Smartway Partnership (Jeff Hoimstead/Kathleen Hogan;
EPA)
15. EPA MethanelHigh GWP Programs (JeffHolmsteadlKathleen
Hogan, EPA)
16. New DOE Voluntary Emissions Reductions Reporting
Guidelines ("1605(b)") (David Conover, DOE)
17. Targeted Incentives for Greenhouse Gas Sequestration (USDA
Farm Bill Conservation Programs) (Dale Moore/Bill Hohenstein,
USDA)
18. Fuel Economy Increase for Light Trucks (Tyler Duvall, DOT)
19. DOE Energy Efficiency Standards (David Conover, DOE)
20. Methane to Markets Partnership (Jeff HomsteadlDina Kruger/
Paul Gunning, EPA -- please share drafts with DOE, USAID, and
State)
21. Regional and Bilateral Activites (Harlan Watson, State)
22. Generation IV International Forum -- Nuclear Energy (David
Conover, DOE)
23. Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Partnership (David
Conover, DOE)
24. Global Environment Facility (Bobby Pittman, Treasury)
25. Tropical Forest Conservation Act (Harlan Watson, State)
26. President's Initiative Against Illegal Logging (Harlan Watson,
State)
27. US AID Development Assistance for Energy Efficiency/Lower
Air Pollution and GRG Emissions (Jackee Schafer, USAID)
CEQ 016656
undertaken).
History of Program: (when announced and by whom? If
appropriate, insert one or two sentence quote from highest ranking
official involved in announcing, with date. Note funding or
performance commitments or other, more general benchmarks made
at time ofannouncement. If applicable, note relevant legislation
dates and names of authorizing laws.
Progress and Milestones: Need information bullets on: (l)
historic and current funding levels and FY '06 budget request, if
applicable; (2) stated or evolving objectives of program; (3) recent
estimated results or benefits or benchmarks of progress; (4)
anticipated near-term next steps (within the next 6 months)
Federal Point of Contact: Provide website address for program
itself and name of Departmentlagency office that administers the
program. [In cases where there are multiple agencies participating,
generally there is one lead office and the name of that office alone
should be provided - we are merely trying to provide a point of
entry for further information].
CEQ 016657
PRE-DECISIONAL May 25, 2005
Issue:
The guidelinesunderwhich National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
andother Federal agency scientists would work with scientists from outside the Federal
government to develop informationproducts for the U.S. Climate Change Science
Program (CCSP)triggerthe requirements of the FederalAdvisory Committee Act
(FACA) 5 U.S.C. App. 2.
There are two matters to consider CCSP is currently behindon its self-imposed (but
public) scheduleofproducing these reports, so time is of the essence. Second, author
teams are reluctantto commit to specific prospectuseson their products without knowing
what will come ofthe FACA issue.
The activitiesof the CCSP are performed under the 1990 Global ChangeResearch Act
(GCRA) which requires the Government to submit a quadrennial scientific assessment
which (1) integrates, evaluates, and interprets the findings ofthe Program and discusses
the scientific uncertainties associated with such findings; (2) analyzes the effects of
global change on the natural environment, agriculture,energyproduction and use, land
andwater resources, transportation, human health and welfare, human social systems,
andbiological diversity; and (3) analyzescurrent trends in global change,both human-
induced and natural, and projects major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years. Pub.
L. No. 101-606, § 106.
The CCSP Strategic Plan, released in July 2003, identifies 21 Synthesis and Assessment
products' to be completedover the next four years (by 2007). These productswere
meantto fulfill the requirements of the 1990 GCRA2• The process by whichthe
assessments are to be drafted suggests that each participating agency will be responsible
for serving as a lead agency in developingone or more "synthesis and assessment
products," or reports, on climate.change science. In producingthese reports, NOAA
scientists may obtain scientific information from scientists from the private sector,
academia, and other countries.
1
CEQ 016765
PRE-DECISIONAL May 25, 2005
An agencyparticipating in the CCSP may serve as the "lead agency" on one or more of
21 information products (attached). These topics to be covered by the information
products were identified through the CCSP StrategicPlan, which was developed by an
interagency groupwith extemal.input.
Once the first draft ofthe informationproduct is assembled by the lead authorteam, it
willbe submittedfor peer review throughprocedures following the OMB Peer Review
Bulletin and CCSP Guidelines. Thereafter, the information product will be submitted for
public comment and ultimately Committee on Environment and Natural Resources
approval before being issued in final form.
3 The "Guidelines for Producing the cCSP Synthesis and Assessment Products" are attached.
2
CEQ 016766
PRE-DECISIONAL May 25, 2005
3
CEQ 016767
Page 1 of 1
Hannagan, Bryan J.
Attached is the edited and clean version of the letter after agency and EOP comments were
considered. Please call me to discuss if you have any questions. We can add new edits
through the LRM process.
Thanks,
Ahsha
********************************************
Ahsha N. Tribble, Ph.D.
Technical Chief of Staff
Office of Assistant Secretary of Commerce
For Oceans and Atmosphere
HCHB/Room 5804
14th & Constitution Ave, NW
Washington, DC 20230
202-482-3567 (DOC)
202 -4 82 - 6318 (Fax)
********************************************
7/13/2005
CEQ 016865
"
P~DECISIONAL DRAFT - DO NOT CIRCULATE OR CITE
Subject: Revised Schedule and Scope for the Scientific Synthesis and Assessment
Products Being Produced by the Climate Change Science Program
I am writing to provide an updated schedule and scope of the Climate Change Science
Program (CCSP) Synthesis and Assessment products, which reflects the strategy to
comply with Section 106 of the 1990 Global Change Research Act (GRCA),
Background
The President established the U.S. Climate Change Science Program in 2002 as part of a
new cabinet-level management structure to oversee public investments in climate change
science and technology. The new management structure also includes the Climate
Change Technology Program, which is responsible for accelerating climate-related
technology research and development. The CCSP incorporates the U.S. Global Change
Research Program, established by the Global Change Research Act, and the Climate
Change Research Initiative, established by the President in 2001. CCSP coordinates and
integrates scientific research on global change and climate change sponsored by 13
participating departments and agencies of the U.S. Govenunent.
In July 2003, CCSP published the Strategic Planfor the u.s. Climate Change Science
Program. The Strategic Plan responds to the President's direction that climate change
research activities be accelerated to provide the best scientific information to support
public discussion and decisionmaking on climate-related issues. The plan also responds
to Section 104 of the GCRA, which mandates the development and periodic updating ofa
long-term national global change research plan coordinated through the National Science
and Technology Council. This was the first comprehensive update ofa strategic plan for
U.S. global change arid climate change research in 14 years. The Strategic Plan is
considered a living document as we anticipated that adjustments would be needed as the
science evolved and priorities changed over time.
CEQ 016866
~REDECISIONAL DRAFT - DO NOT CIRCULATE OR CITE
Recommendation NRC-2: The CCSP should ensure the credibility of synthesis and
assessment products by producing them with independent oversight and review from
the wider scientific and stakeholder communities throughout the process.
CCSP Response: CCSP has adopted a wide ranging scientific peer review and
stakeholder review process to ensure transparency, inclusiveness, and utility of the
reported information.
Recommendation NRC-3: The CCSP should ensure that the synthesis and assessment
products are produced without unduly affecting the ability to conduct research and in
coordination with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment.
CEQ 016867
PREDECISIONAL DRAFT - DO NOT CIRCULATE OR CITE
Recommendation GAO~l: Develop plans to prepare the next assessment within the
prescribed time frame, or if 4 years are insufficient to complete the assessment,
recommend to the CCSP interagency Committee that CCSP request an extension from
the Congress.
CCSP Response: CCSP plans to complete the S&A products necessary to comply
with Section 106 of the GCRA by the end of2007. Production of some of the
CCSP Products, not required by Section 106, will be extended into 2008. (See
Table 1.) CCSP requests that the Congress recognize 2007 as the required
completion date for those products required by Section 106. CCSP also requests
that the Congress consider establishing a longer cycle for future assessments... ~~.~.~ ..__ . i . > ·•
Deleted: recommends that Congress
considerestablishing a 7-year cycle time
prepared under the provisions of the GCRA, that reflects the increasjp.g_~.()~~~~ity .._ for furore assessments to be
of climate science and related information. This consideration is used by the IPCC, Deleted: . Thistimeframe reflects the
which has adopted a seven-year cycle for its Fourth Assessment Report..... __ .. ..... increas
Deleted: ,and conforms to the schedule
Recommendation GAO-2: Develop a specific plan to address all eight of the currently adoptedby JPCC.
assessment areas.
CCSP Response: CCSP plans to modify the current list of 21 Synthesis and
Assessment Products to incorporate coverage of all assessment areas. Recognizing
the multiple demands on the climate science community responsible for preparing
these products, CCSP will delay until 2008 some of the products not required by the
GCRA. (See Table 1.) The eight assessment areas will be addressed in the
following synthesis and assessment products:
A. The natural environment: .~ ..3!.4:.1..................... __ ..' " ""'1~De~Ieted;;;;;;:;,;,;:2;;,;.2.;.,'= = = = = =
B. Agriculture: .4}................ .......' ~~.:.::::: {>=DDeIeted,.;e1,.;eted=,• .;:'2;".5.=' ,1 =======<
C. Energyproductionanduse:ll,4.5 .. __ _ . 2
D. Land and water resources: 4:3'..·....·.. ".' ..{Deleted: 3.2
E. Transportation: 4.7 I...=.::==.:....=------~
F. Human health and welfare: 4.6
G. Human social systems: 4.6
H. Biological diversity: 4.3 Deleted: 'iI
In addition, otherrequirements of Section
106will be addressed by other products,
~~c.~~~~~.':i.~~~~. Q~9.~~;_ .~~~~~~~~_ ~_(). ~~. ~.9~~ .i?~~~l1g~~cy' _~()rIlIIl.i~~. ~11~ .a.. including, 1.1,2.1,2.3,5.2, and 5.3.~
summary report be prepared to integrate the findings of the 21 or more individual 11
reports. Deleted: preparea summariesof each
Synthesis and Assessment Producton a
near-currentbasisasthey are available in
CCSP Response: CCSP will inco1]orate a summary of findings of all completed the next threeeditions of
Products required by GCRA in our annual.Qll!..Q~I!!!g:!~~g:_f'.Zql!e_~!:~p.~~~.!~ J/ . Formatted: Font: Italic
Congress, starting in 2006 __ __ .. __ __ .__ .. __ . . 0:-.-
""'.~ Deleted: .
Deleted: y
Deleted: reportincorporating the
Revised Schedule and Scope of the CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Products fin~ of theProducts required by the
Table I outlines the revised schedule and scope of the 21 Synthesis and Assessment GeRA. This summary is scheduledfor
productionin 2007.
Products..;... . ..
Deleted: , which includesa
modificationof theoriginal Jistof21
products
CEQ 016868
PREDECISIONAL DRAFT - DO NOT CIRCULATE OR CITE
GOAL 2 Improve quantification ofthe forces bringing' about changes in the Earth's
climate and related systems
Product 2.1 Updatingscenarios of greenhouse gas DOE 4m quarter 2006 .. -.. ::: { Fonna~: Centered
emissions and concentrations, in T. ___ .••...•. _ . • • ---.'-- Deleted. Yes
collaboration with the CCTP. Review of
integratedscenario development and
application. (<2 yrs)
Product 2.2 North American carbon budget and NOAA I st quarter 2007 ..---.-.-1Fonnatted: Centered
implications for the global carbon cycle. 't._ . . • . . • . --_ . . --- .... - Deleted: Yes
«2 yrs)
Product 2.3 Aerosolproperties and their impacts on NASA 3'" quarter 2007 .. - ---.. -{ Formatted- centered
climate. (2-4 yrs) T •.• Deleted: Yes
Product 2.4 Trends in emissions of ozone-depleting NOAA 2·· quarter 2008 Formatted: centered
substances, ozone layer recovery, and T. ____ ._ •.•• ____
Deleted: No
implications for ultraviolet radiation
exposure and climate change. (2-4 yrs], _. _.- .. - _ ... " _. -- ........ --------_._- -_..... _- . ..-....··-1 ~eleted: 'I
GOAL 3 Reduce uncertainty in projections ofhow the Eartk's climate and related
systems may change ill the future
CEQ 016869
PREDECISIONAL DRAFT - DO NOT CIRCULATE OR CITE
Product 3.3 Climate extremes including NOAA 200 quarter 2008 ........... Formatted: centered
documentation of current extremes. (2-4 .................. ... - . ' ." Deleted: No
yrs)
Product 3.4 Risks of abrupt changes in global USGS
00
2 quarter 2008 .... , "
.' Formatted: centered
climate. (2-4 yrs) Formatted: Indent: Left: Opt
CYVe will update the)~~? .-",
..... -..... - Deleted: ~
NRC Report.)
Deleted: No
- ... - Deleted: Yes
GOAL 4 Understand the sensitivity and adaptability ofdifferent natural and managed ,:
ecosystems and humat systems to climate and related global changes Deleted: No
...
Deleted: Effects on
Product 4.1 Coastal elevation and sensitivity to sea- EPA 3m quarter 2007
level rise. (<2 yrs) Formatted: Indent: Left: Opt
"'._-----_._._.-
Product 4.2 State-of-knowledge of thresholds of USGS 10
4 quarter 2007 .: Deleted: ~
change that could lead to discontinuities T••••••••••.. __ ••. Deleted:
"
(sudden changes) in some ecosystems "
"
"Formatted: Left, Indent: Left: Opt
and climate-sensitive resources. (2-4 ::':
.::.: Deleted: ~
vrs)
USDA... .. ~~.qq~e!'.?pO!...
.':.. Yes
:::: "
Product 4.3 ~n~lxse~. ~r th.e: .effe~.~ ~r gl.(l~.a\ ~,haJlge.. ., - ....... .. . ... :.;':
on agriculture, biodiversity, land, and Deleted: Yes
water resources. (Re-scoped to include
biodiversity, land,~9: .. ,
.:/:/:; Fortnat:tal: - tent: Left: 0 pt
~j! r::m
systems. (Re-scoped to focus on Yes
~~i:e~i~~~·aJld.. .... - .. .......
...: ,.,.,
Formatted: Superscript
Deleted: 2'"
Product 4.7 Within the transportation sector, a DOT ~q~(j~.?WZ...... ... .. - ~'" .-
summary of climate change and Fonnatted: Indent: left: Opt
variability sensitivities, potential (Re-scoped to add an .-'
Deleted: 'iJ
impacts, and response options. (2-4 yrs) overview.~~ .t~_~ .~ta~e ,~f. .. ......
Deleted: K
~~~!~g~1'~~~~ ....... .. - '.
for potential~!l.ct~.J?U.x . .... ,~
Deleted: 'iJ
-1!artg~~JranSportation : "
Deleted: 'iJ
.>Y$tems.l. +, ". ',~
GOALS Explore the uses and identify the limits ofevolving knowledge to manage risks "':'\:. "" ' DeIeted:'i!
and otmorumides related to climate variability and cllanxe \"\' Deleted:
Product 5.1 Uses and limitations of observations, NASA 410 quarter 2006 \..\.. , Deleted: on...'1 r:::12f
data, forecasts, and other projections in ................
decision support for selected sectors and \::::::.::: Deleted: modes
regions. (<2yrs)
... ' Formatted: left, Indent:Left: 0 pt
"'\
Product 5.2 Best-practice approaches to TBD.. 3'" Quarter 2006 D~:'Jl r:::r3f
I
\
characterize, communicate, and ......... -_...... Formatted Table
incorporate scientific uncertainty in
decisionmaking. «2 yrs) Deleted: Yes
CEQ 016870
PREDECISIONAL DRAFT - DO N()T CIRCULATE OR CITE
* The scheduled completion dates noted in Table 1 can only be met if the administrative
challenges described in the "Lessons Learned" section below are resolved.
Lessons Learned During the Development of the Synthesis and Assessment Products
Establishing the process for preparing the CCSP's synthesis and assessment products has
taken much longer than anticipated because ofthe need to harmonize the CCSP process
with both new and established legal requirements for producing government-
disseminated documents. This has caused time delays in the production schedule for the
products and have significantly increased the complexity of the tasks initially envisioned
under the plan. Key factors include:
Deleted: cCSP has experienceda series
,....6MB 'iiiformation 'QuaiitY' ~(ct' R:i'quiremeiits:" The'CCSP'product dev~iopment'" of unexpectedchallenges in the
developmentof the S&Aproducts
activities became one of the first examples oflarge-scale, multi-agency sponsored identified in theJuly 2003 Strategic PIan.
These challenges havecaused time delays
scientific surveys to be prepared under the 2002 Information Quality Act (IQA). in the production schedulefor the
Substantial time was expended in the development of the' Guidelines for Producing products and havesignificantly increased
the complexityof the tasks initially
the CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Products in a form that recognized the need to envisionedundertheplan, Key
create a workable interaction between the requirements for scientific peer review, challenges include:~
public stakeholder review and government agency review with a methodology that
would assure credibility among all users of the CCSP documents. After receiving
public cormnents and repeated multi-agency legal review, the Guidelines for the
preparation of the CCSp products were published .iP.: tI1~U: .c~~Il:~ KO.r:tJ:l. in December .. ' .. ' (Deleted: 0
2004.
OMB Information Quality Bulletin for Peer Review: Under the Information
Quality Act, OMB was required to develop scientific peer review guidelines
(ultimately published in December 2004) for government-disseminated science-based
documents. Each agency was also required to adopt or adapt the OMB guidelines for
their own use. As a large multi-agency program, CCSP was required to conform to
the agency-specific guidelines with a workable agreement among the CCSP agencies.
After several reviews among the CCSP agency IQA specialists and OMB, an agreed
approach to the preparation of multiple agency science documents was developed in
early 2005.
CEQ 016871
PREDECISIONAL DRAFT - DO NOT CIRCULATE OR CITE
The GCRA was enacted in 1990, and both knowledge and information needs have
evolved substantially since that time. In recognition of this fact. the CCSP Strategic Plan
highlights three approaches to the application of scientific information to decision
making: I) scientific assessments; 2) resources to support adaptive management; and 3)
comparative evaluation of policy options. These approaches, which are descnbed in the
CCSP Strategic Plan, provide a more comprehensive framework for decision support than
was envisioned in the GCRA, which focused primarily on only the first of the three
CCSP decision support approaches.
CCSP has several other ongoing activities that provide information to the public and the
scientific and decisionmaking communities. The CCSP Office maintains a website -
http://www.climatescience.gov- that includes CCSP's recent activities and
announcements, disseminations, current climate events, solicitations for reviews of
climate documents, and archives of other relevant information. In addition, CCSP
publishes an annual program document, Our Changing Planet, to update Congress on
program goals, milestones, and budget information.
CCSP also has two new major activities ~~ .~~~~,~~~@.."':1~g.~~~~~~.~~.1??-~ ..._ ,.'.{Deleted: and an offerto Congress
decisionrnaking and scientific communities on our processes and assessment
deliverables:
I The CCSP Principals consist of senior representatives from each of the I3 CCSP agencies, the Council on
Environmental Quality, the Office of Science and Technology Policy, and the Offke of Management and
Budget.
CEQ 016872
PREDECISIONAL DRAFT - DO NOT CIRCULATE OR CITE
3) Designated support from two existing committees of the NRC that are well
positioned to support CCSP with expertise in areas central to CCSP's core
responsibilities, the Climate Research Committee and the Committee on the
Human Dimensions of Global Change.
The Administration has endorsed the CCSP/NRC relationship to ensure that CCSP
receives independent and credible scientific advice, as CCSP continues to implement
its Strategic Plan".... . . Deleted: '"
T •••••••• _.0 _ • • • • • • • _ ••• •••••• _ •• + ••• • _'0 •• • __ •• _ • • • • • • • _. •• _. __ ._ •• •••• . Deleted:'!
Offer of Periodic Dialogue with
Congressional Members and Staff:
Concluding Comments CCSP is pleasedto offer periodic
consultations withMembers and staff'to
CCSP is committed to producing climate science and assessment information, ensuring provideupdateson progress in preparing
that the science is relevant and current, and disseminating this information in a way that ccsp's Synthesis and Assessment
Productsand to reviewmethods and
is useful to the Congress, other decisionmakers, stakeholders, the media and the public. needs for assessment.~
CCSP, together with the hundreds of climate scientists producing the required assessment Formatted: Indent: Left: 18 pt
products, is accelerating its production as much as possible, but we will take care not to
compromise the integrity of the science findings in pursuit of rapid production.
We look forward to further dialogue with you on these important issues and will be.. ...... + ....... { Formatted: Indent: Left: 0 pt
pleased to offer periodic consultations with Members and staff to provide updates on ·.. ·······{'-D-=e1-=eted~_:_. --'
progress in preparing CCSP's Synthesis and Assessment Products and to review methods
and needs for assessment.
CEQ 016873
PREDECISIONAL DRAFT - DO NOT CmCULATE OR CITE
Sincerely,
CC: Thomas E. Graedel, Chair ofNRC Committee to Review the CCSP Strategic Plan
John B. Stephenson, Government Accountability Office
CEQ 016874
.
"
Yes
Page 5: [2] Deleted DOC 7/13/20054:57:00 PM
on
Page 5: [2] Deleted DOC 7/13/2005 4:57:00 PM
Yes
Page 5: [4] Deleted jmahoney 7/13/2005 2:31:00 PM
NSF Funded
(CCSPO
Page 5: [4] Deleted jmahoney 7/13/20052:31:00 PM
)
CEQ 016875
Page 1 of 3
Bryan,
I incorporated your comments except for one (see previous email with attachments). I did not
include a list of the other products as a response to the 2nd GAO recommendation. Instead,
we removed the yes/no column from the table because we felt that we may get into battle over
what criteria was used to say a product was required or not. It could be argued that some of
the products marked no, should be yes, etc. Therefore, by removing the table and focusing
our response on the 8 assessment areas as stated in the recommendation, there seemed to
be no need to list other products.
If you want to discuss these or other edits, please feel free to call me at any time. Also, I
received your email about the Lautenberg letter. We will look for your response.
Ahsha - attached in redline form are my comments on the followup letter discussed on the
conference call this afternoon. Good job!
Thanks,
Bryan
CCSP Principals,
Attached is the DRAFT letter that Dr. Mahoney will send to interested committees
as a follow up to the June 16 DeMint letter discussed at the last Principals
meeting.
This DRAFT letter outlines a path forward to comply with Section 106 and complete
the assessments that has not been agreed to by the CCSP Principals. The
O{L~lO~;)G
A "'-""Ct'Q 016877
Page 2 of3
purpose of this call is to agree on the language in the letter (with modifications as
needed) so that we can move this quickly through the LRM (interagency) clearance
process.
Thank you,
Ahsha
With apologies for the late notice, Dr. Mahoney would like to convene a
conference call at 1:30 p.m. on Wednesday July 13 to provide an update
on the July 15 letter. Please dial 1-800-516-9896, code 888503. Ii your
Agency's principal cannot be on the call, please designate a senior
representative to participate. Also, please check your email tomorrow
morning justin case we circulate an update regarding the call.
Thank you.
Ri
********************************************
Ahsha N. Tribble, ph.D.
Technical Chief of Staff
Office of Assistant Secretary of Commerce
For Ocea~s and Atmosphere
HCHB!Room 5804
14th & Constitution Ave, NW
Washington, DC 20230
202-482-3567 (DOC)
202-482-6318 (Fax)
********************************************
********************************************
Ahsha N. Tribble, ph.D..
Technical Chief of Staff
Office of Assistant Secretary of Commerce
For Oceans and Atmosphere
HCHB/Room 5804
14th & Constitution Ave, NW
Washington, DC 20230
202-482-3567 (DOC)
202-482-6318 (Fax)
********************************************
Bryan,
There was some concern expressed among some of the Principals about the summary
document.
1) Do we really want to change the intent of OCP - a program report - which we have been
pushing and telling Revkin that there are no findings in these documents. '
2) Are we really answering the mail by putting individual summaries in OCP? They are really
looking for a summary of all of the reports?
If you agree with their comments, can we replace the language with:
"CCSP will prepare a summary report incorporating the findings of the Products required by the
aCRA."
Thanks,
Ahsha
********************************************
Ahsha N. Tribble, Ph.D.
Technical Chief of Staff
Office of Assistant Secretary of Commerce
For Oceans and Atmosphere
HCHB!Room 5804
14th & Constitution Ave, NW
Washington, DC 20230
202-482-3567 (DOC)
202-482-6318 (Fax)
********************************************
Are we releasing the S&A product? How does Revkin know about it.
Bryan Bannegan
Associate Director for Energy and Transportation
Council on Environmental Quality
-----Original Message-----
From: Ahsha Tribble <Ahsha.Tribble@noaa.gov>
To: Hannegan, Bryan J. <Bryan J. Hannegan@ceg.eop.gov>
Sent: Thu Aug 11 18:20:42 2005
Subject: Re: FW: Suggested Response re: NYT story on temperature trends
Hi Bryan,
Dr. Mahoney deferred to Tom Karl because Dr. Mahoney is on vacation until Monda
Q: Do you have an impression of the three papers that came out today,
A: The three are directly related. These are things that we've been
issues.
sets. We worked hard on doing what was necessary. UAH went back and
recomputed their work based on the group's work. None of this would
Q:1'll just say soon. I understand that these three efforts were
specific goal, it's amazing what you can accomplish that goes above and
Ahsha - I underst~nd Dr. Mahoney was asked for his views regarding these papers
Thanks,
Bryan
Andy Revkin will 'be writing a story in the NYT tomorrow regarding these three c
*
The United States spends nearly $2 billion per year in climate science
*
The research papers published in this week's Science Express -- support
*
Like all scientific research findings, these papers will be subject to
*
President Bush believes that climate change is a serious long-term issu
*
The accelerated development and deployment of cleaner, more efficient e
*
The United States is addressing climate change through a comprehensive,
'Thanks, Bryan
-----Original Message-----
From: Billie Christian [mailto:christian6@11nl.gov]
Sent: Thursday, August 11, 2005 3:44 PM
Subject: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory News Release (Climate Model)
NEW OBSERVATIONS AND CLIMATE MODEL DATA CONFIRM RECENT WARMING OF THE TROPICAL
LIVERMORE, Calif. - For the first time, new climate observations and computer m
Over the past decade, scientific evidence from a variety of sources has implica
Three papers published in today's edition of Science Express shed light on this
The computer models analyzed in the Livermore study show that in the deep tropi
The new satellite and weather balloon data described in the first two Science E
"This strongly suggests that there is no longer any fundamental discrepancy bet
"The new observational data helps to remove a major stumbling block in our unde
- END -
Media Relations
Livermore - CA 94551
Email: christian6@11nl.gov
********************************************
Ahsha N. Tribble, Ph.D.
Technical Chief of Staff
Office of Assistant Secretary of Commerce
For Oceans and Atmosphere
HCHB!Room 5804
14th & Constitution Ave, NW
Washington, DC 20230
202-482-3567 (DOC)
202-482-6318 (Fax)
********************************************
-----original Message-----
From: Kent Laborde <Kent.Laborde@noaa.gov>
TO: St. Martin, Michele M. <Michele_M._St.Martin@ceq.eop.gov>
sent: Man Apr 03 17:20:18 2006
Subject: Re: Greenwire
It was a pretty easy interview. It didn't touch on politics. I stressed the support
and backing for the program, and emphasized that it was on strong footing. r'm not
sure who else they will quote. It should come out tomorrow.
Kent
St. Martin, Michele M.wrote:
>sounds good, make sure you reiterite how the committed we are to this program and
the support it has. Thanks!
>
>
>
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: Kent Laborde <Kent.Laborde@noaa.gov>
>TO: St. Martin, Michele M. <Michele-M._St.Martin@ceq.eop.gov>
>Sent: Mon Apr 03 16:32:03 2006
>subject: Greenwire
>
>Michele,
>Andrew Freedman ca11 ed 1ooki ng for comments on the vi abi 1 i ry of CCSP
>w;th the changes in leadership. I will provide him with some background
>on how the program works to illustrate that the changes in leadership
>will not interfere with the day-to-day operations. If the discussion
>turns into questions on the political realm, I will send him to you.
>
>Kent
>
>
>
Page 1
004:194:
CEQ 017598
RE media plan for rollo-out of cCSP 1.1
From: St. Martin, Michele M. .
Sent: wednesday, April 19, 2006 10:04 AM
To: Kent.Laborde@noaa.gov .
subject: Re: media plan for rollo-out of CCSP 1.1
can you resend plan.
-----original Message-----
From: Kent Laborde <Kent.Laborde@noaa.gov>
TO: St. Martin, Michele M. <Michele_M._St.Martin@ceq.eop.gov>
sent: wed Apr 19 10:03:04 2006
subject: Re: media plan for rollo-out of CCSP 1.1
I am available today to talk about this. Are we on hold for planning on thi S unt i 1
you give the green light?
St. Martin, Michele M. wrote:
>plan on reviewing later today. I will call later.
>
>-----original Message-----
>From: Kent Laborde [mailto:Kent.Laborde@noaa.gov]
>Sent: Tuesday, April 18, 2006 12:25 PM .
>To: St. Martin, Michele M.
>subject: Re: media plan for rollo-out of CCSP 1.1
>
>Michele,
>Have you had a chance to look this over? It looks as though we will be
>rolling this out next week.what's driving the timeline on this is NSTC
>approval. we are expecting to be through the process by Friday
>afternoon. we can expect Hill briefings (Eric webster at NOAA is
>setting those up) early next week. The media availability will be the
>day after the Hill briefings. I would, however, like to queue things up
>this week if possible to make sure that the reporters have it on their radar.
>please let me know if you have any questions. I will give you more
>details when I find out definite dates for this.
>
>Kent
>
>St. Martin, Michele M. wrote:
>
>
>
»we have time to discuss this next. week ri9ht or do we need to do this
»before? I am trying to prepare for the ASla pacific mtg in Berkley
»next
»
»
>
>
>
»week and will not be able to give my full attention until Tuesday.. OK?
»
»-----original Message-----
»From: Kent Laborde Lmailto:Kent.Laborde@noaa.gov]
»Sent: Thursday, April 13, 2006 2:29 PM
»TO: St. Martin, Michele M.
»cc: Jordan St.John
»Subject: media plan for rollo-out of CCSP 1.1
» .
Page 1
004:196
CEQ 017604
RE media plan for rollo-out of CCSP 1.1
»Michele,
»This is the first of the Climate change Science program's Synthesis
»and
»
»
>
>
>
»Assessment Products to be released. The President's program has been
»faulted as a "stalling" technique where it was easier to delay action
»until'more research is conducted. since then the research process has
»been slow and played into the stalling argument.
»
»with the publication of 1.1, we can demonstrate the benefits of the
»CSSP and highlight the value that this process adds'to ,the overall
»climate-research objective. this will be the main talking point of the
»availability. The president's program is what made this significant
»scientific product possible.
»
»The subject of 1.1 is in and of itself a news-maker. The findings of
»the authors remove one of the key disconnects between modeling and
»observations. It reconciles differences in methods of measurement, as
»well as observations,and modeling.
»
»Ideally, we would issue the press release the mornin~ of the
»availability to the targeted reporters. That would glve them time to
»understand the subject better and ask informed questions. The release
»would go out to a broader audience at the end of the availability.
»
»The reporters tar~eted are those who have covered cCSP in the past are
»also those most llkely to pick up on the story of 1.1. Here is the
»list
»
»
>
>
>
»I've identified:
»John Fialka, wall Street Journal
»John Heilprin, AP
»Pete Spots, christian science Monitor
»Andy Revkin, New York Times
»Jenny Hogan, Nature
»Dick Kerr, science
»Dan vergano, USA Today
»Eric Roston, Time
»Juliet Eilperin, washington Post
»Miguel Bustillo, LA Times
»Tom Doggett, Reuters
»
»The main subject at the availability will be Tom Karl, the lead author.
»
»
>
>
>
»Also present will be peter schultz who can address the big-picture
»aspects of CCSP, and will be able to talk about the progress of other
»synthesis and assessment products.
» '
»The media roll-out will be the day after a series of Hill briefings.
»Congress will be well informed of the subject before it is in the
»papers.
Page 2
CEQ 017605
RE media plan for rollo-out of CCSP 1.1
»
»please let me know if you have any questions, Kent
»
»
»
»
»
>
>
>
Page 3
CEQ 017606
RE eesp release SAP 1.1 Temp Trends NOAA edits
From: Kent Laborde [Kent.Laborde@noaa.gov]
sent: Wednesday, April 12, 2006 1:48 PM
To: St. Martin, Michele M.
subject: Re: eesp release: SAP 1.1 Temp Trends NOAA edits
Mi chel e ,. .
Thanks for getting back to me on this. They synthesize available work/research that
has been done. When all put together, the individual bits of research illustrate
that there are consistent temperature trends. I've lifted the wording almost
directly from the report itself.
I'm not fond of the headline anyway, if "prove" is too strong.
thanks,
Kent
St. Martin, Michele M. wrote:
>Kent -
>1 will get back to you later in the week, but just 'ookin~ at it for a
>sec .. the word "prove" in the headline, I think is misleadlng .. This
>report does not prove anything in my understanding - none of this is
>new science ... ? I need to look over this a bit longer .. I was under the
>impressions that these reports are about the best available climate
>science thus far from all the work we have done... My thoughts so far,
>but let me give it more attention. Thanks!
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: Kent Laborde Lmailto:Kent.Laborde@noaa.gov]
>Sent: wednesday, April 12, 2006 12:10 PM
>TO: St. Martin, Michele M.
>subject: cesp release: SAP 1.1 Temp Trends NOAA edits
>
>Michele,
>I've attached the release for the first eesp synthesis and Assessment
>product. I would like to have it ready for when the product actually
>comes out (within the next week or two). please let me know if you have
>any questions on this. I'm also planning on having a phone availability
>with the lead author. The main message 1S that eesp is adding benefit
>to the scientific body. Also, after laying all of the ground work, we
>are seeing the results of valuable, world-class research that has been
>conducted -- this is the first of several products that will be
>published this year under eesp.
>
>Kent
>202-482-5757
>
>
>
page 1
0041.85
CEQ 017611
Re CCSP synthesis and Assessment Product 1.1 one-page3r
From: Kent Laborde [Kent.Laborde@noaa.gov]
. Sent: Friday, April 21, 2006 1:21 PM
To: St. Martin, Michele M.
subject: Re: CCSP synthesis and Assessment Product 1.1 one-pager
Michele,
I hate to do this, but we just were handed a last-minute revision to language. Can I
. pull this document? We'll need to revise the. talking points and some of the language
on the press release. I'm really sorry to have to do this.
Kent
St. Martin, Michele M. wrote:
>These are internal?
>
>-----original Message-----
>From: Kent Laborde lmailto:Kent.Laborde@noaa.gov]
>sent: Friday, April 21, 2006 12:33 PM
>TO: St. Martin, Michele M.
>subject: cCSP synthesis and Assessment product 1.1 one-pager
>
>
>Mi chel e,
>sorry so long to get these back to you. I had to get these cleared here
>before going out. Let me know if this is what you were looking for.
>Also, let me know if you need more information on this.
>
>Kent
>
>
>
Page 1
004:186
CEQ 017612
CCSP Product 1.1 on Temperature Trends
DATE: May 2,2006
Tllv1E: 10:00 AM
LOCATION: 2318 Rayburn Bouse Office Building
WHAT: Briefing
mu, STAFF: House Science Committee Staff and LA's (Amy Carroll
coordinating)
TOPIC: CCSP Product 1.1
NOAA: Tom Karl & Ahsha Tribble
OLA: Robertson
OFA:
BACKGROUND: CCSP Product 1.1 is being targeted for release on 5/2/2006. The
topic is "Temperature trends in the lower atmosphere -- steps for
understanding and reconciling differences."
To help meet this objective, the CCSP has identified an initial set of 21 synthesis and
assessment products that address its highest priority research, observation, and decision-
support needs.
This Synthesis and Assessment Report, the first of the 21 Reports, focuses on
understanding the causes of the reported difference~ between independently produced
data sets of atmospheric temperature trends from the surface through the troposphere to
the lower stratosphere. These independent data sets include those produced by computer
models, as well as various forms of observation.
Previously reported discrepancies between the amount of warming near the surface and
higher in the atmosphere have been used to challenge the validity of climate models used
to detect and attribute of observed climate change.
Specifically, surface data showed substantial global-average warming, while early versions
of satellite data showed little or no warming above the surface.
Since those reports, errors have been identified and corrected in the satellite
data and other temperature observations.
These data now show global average warming in the atmosphere similar to the warming
observed at the surface and consistent with the results from climate models. Discrepancies
remain to be resolved in the tropics.
The recent evidence has increased confidence in our understanding of observed climatic
changes and their causes.
Two key questions being asked by policy makers are: 1. how certain is the science
regarding past warming and 2. how good are the models that are being used to make
estimates of future climate conditions. This product addresses both of these questions.
Regarding the first question, 1.1 concludes that previous global-scale inconsistencies
between observed surface and upper-air temperature trends have largely been resolved.
Regarding the second question, the report concludes that global-scale inconsistencies
between model simulations and observations of upper air trends have largely been
reconciled, thereby increasing confidence somewhat in the ability of state-of-the-art climate
models to simulate a key atmospheric feature.
004:163
CEQ 017652
Q: What does this report mean?
A: Previous reported discrepancies were used to challenge reliability of climate models and
reality of human-induced global warming. Specifically, surface warming was substantial,
while early versions of satellites and weather balloons showed little warming higher in the
atmosphere
• This significant discrepancy no longer exists because errors in the satellite and
weather balloon data were identified and corrected.
• This is an important revision to previous NRC and IPCC reports.
• For recent decades all current atmospheric data sets now show global-average
warming that is similar to surface warming, consistent with global climate model
simulations.
• There remains unresolved discrepancies within the tropics.
• Overall, recent observations and model simulations increase our confidence in
our understanding of observed climate changes and their causes.
A: The field of climate change science is sufficiently complex that there are no smoking
guns or singular points of clarity. This report does add confidence to our overall
understanding, but also identifies specific gaps in our ability to adequately monitor and
ultimately understand some aspects of climate change. S&A Product 1.1 helps break down
barriers in our understanding of the complex global systems.
While S&A Product 1.1 has provided us with greater confidence in our model projections,
there remain discrepancies that point to inadequate monitoring capabilities and possibly
important gaps in our understanding.
A: The CCSP process is designed to engage a broad, divergent and encompassing group
of stakeholders. To do this, we cast a wide net to receive input from a wide variety of
scientific viewpoints. In putting together an S&A Product, we draw from existing peer-
reviewed scientific publications.
Certain aspects of S&A Product 1.1 were generated through the Assessment process itself
as authors identified gaps and opportunities to close some of these. Many of the members
of the NOAA-led author team went through a peer-review process to publish their work, so
it could be used in Product 1.1. In this way, the CCSP process also resulted in accelerated
understanding of the field.
CEQ 017653
file://lGIIFOIA 0/020-0/020Climate/2006/deliberativelFW%20Fwd%2OCCSP%201.1%20Hill%20briefs%20SCHEDULE.htrn
"'-
From: Ahsha Tribble [mailto:Ahsha.Tribble@noaa.gov]
Sent: Monday, May 01, 20063:00 PM
To: Fryberger, Teresa A.; Cauthen, Khary 1.; Petro, Andrea M.
Subject: [Fwd: CCSP 1.1 Hill briefs SCHEDULE]
FYI...
Here is my l-pager with the schedule for tomorrow's briefings on the CCSP Product 1.1. Note the
updates to the locations and the timing of the pre-briefing. We expect higher attendance on the House
side (>8) and 4-8 on the Senate side.
-=Jason
CEQ 017658
file:IIIG/fFOIA %20-%2OClimale/2006/deliberative!FW%20Fwd%20CCSP%201.1%20Hill%20briefs%20SCHEDULE.htm
WHAT: Briefing
mu, STAFF: Senate Commerce Committee Staff and LA's (Garret Graves and Margaret
Spring coordinating)
TOPIC: CCSP Product 1.1
NOAA: Tom Karl & Ahsha Tribble
OLA: Robertson
OFA:
********************************************
Ahsha N. Tribble, Ph.D.
Technical Chief of Staff
Office of Assistant Secretary of Commerce
For Oceans and Atmosphere
HCRB/Room 5804
14th & Constitution Ave, NW
washington, DC 20230
202 - 4 8 2 - 3567 (DOC)
202-422-6318 (Fax)
********************************************
CEQ 017659
Re constituent meeting
From: St. Martin, Michele M.
Sent: Friday, May 05, 2006 2:00 PM
TO: Kent Laborde
subject: RE: constituent meeting
Let mw run by Jim.. But your thoughts are understood.
-----original Message----- ~.
From: Kent Laborde [mailto:Kent.Laborde@noaa.gov]
sent: Friday, May 05, 2006 1:59 PM
To: St. Martin, Michele M.
subject: Re: constituent meeting
No press. About your question about OSTP, I would think that including EOP in the
briefing might move the discussion to the political. We want to steer clear of that
and keep it squarely in the scientific. Your thoughts?
St. Martin, Michele M. wrote:
>sounds like a good idea .. no press right?
>
>-----original Message-----
>From: Kent Laborde lmailto:Kent.Laborde@noaa.gov]
>Sent: Friday, May 05, 2006 1:47 PM
>TO: St. Martin, Michele M.
>Subject: constituent meeting
>
>Mi chel e,
>I.wanted to let you know that we are planning a constituent meeting May
>17 to discuss CCSP 1.1. It will be at the Department of Commerce
>auditorium at 9 a.m. I don't have a realistic idea of how many people
>will attend, but we are inviting NGOs, scientists, educators and others.
>
>This is not congressional or political in any way. It is just an
>opportunity to address scientific information contained in the document.
>
>Rayder has approved and supports the meeting. The presenters are the
>authors Please let me know if you have any questions about this.
>
>Kent
>
>
>
>
Page 1
0041.89
CEQ 017673
RE CommWG CCSP SA 1.1 briefing
From: St. Martin, Michele M.
sent: wednesday, May 10, 2006 2:17 PM
To: Kent Laborde
cc: Hellmer, Kristen A. .
subject: RE: [commwG] CCSP s&A 1.1 briefing
.. - I disagree only that I think it is important to state ... I would not su~gest ..
turning anyone away, but at least they know that comments are not for attrlbution.
Anyway .. You have my two cents.
BTW -please cc Kristen Hellmer my deputy on our exchanges - Thanks!
-----original Message-~---
From: Kent Laborde Lmailto:Kent.Laborde@noaa.gov]
Sent: wednesday, May 10, 2006 2:15 PM
TO: St. Martin, Michele M. .
Subject: Re: [commWG] CCSP s&A 1.1 briefing
we don't have grounds to turn ..hem away if they do come. Reporters are not
specifically targeted. I do not expect any there, since it had so much media play
already. There is no remaining news value.
St. Martin, Michele M. wrote:
>I still think you need to express that because this could be sent to
>anyone anywhere - how do you plan on controlling that when you make no
>statement in the letter ... o a reporter could show up to observe and say
>there was no mention either way ... ?
>
>-----original Message-----
>From: Kent Laborde Lmailto:Kent.Laborde@noaa.gov]
>Sent: wednesday, May 10, 2006 2:11 PM
>To: St. Martin, Michele M.
>subject: Re: [commWG] CCSP S&A 1.1 briefing
>
>They have not been invited.
>
>St. Martin, Michele M. wrote:
>
>
>
»Is this open or closed press?
»
»-----original Message-----
»From: outreach-bounces@usgcrp.gov [mailto:outreach-bounces@usgcrp.gov]
»On Behalf of Kent Laborde
»Sent: wednesday, May 10, 2006 2:04 PM
»To: outreach@usgcrp.gov
»subj~ct: [CommWG] CCSP s&A 1.1 briefing
»
»CIWG members,
»
»We are tryin~ to encourage as large a participation as possible at the
»public brieflng on s&A 1.1. I've attached an invitation letter.
»please send the text to anyone you feel would benefit from attending.
»The meeting is open to everyone.
»
»Thank you,
»Kent Laborde
»
»text follows:
»
Page 1
004188
CEQ 017675
RE CommWG CCSP SA 1.1 briefing
»On behalf of the U.S. climate change science program, you are invited
»to attend a briefing and discussion on the recently released report
»"/Temperature Trends in· the Lower Atmosphere: steps for understanding
»and Reconciling Differences/," the Climate change science program
»synthesis and Assessment 1.1
»
»please ·feel free to extend the invitation to others you may feel would
»also benefit from attending.
»
»when: wednesday, May 17 from 9:00 a.m. to 11:00 a.m.
»where: Department of Commerce Herbert C. Hoover Building Auditorium
»who: Dr. Tom Karl, Director of NOAA's National Climatic Data Center,
»Asheville, NC will lead the discussion. Also participatih~ are: ** Dr.
»V. Ramaswamy, NOAA Dr. John R. christy, univ. of Alabama 1n Huntsville
»Dr. Thomas C. Peterson, NOAA or. chris E. Forest, MIT Dr. Benjamin D.
»santer, DOE Dr. Peter W. Thorne, U.K. Met. Office Dr. Tom M. L.
»wigley,
»
»
>
>
>
»NSF NCAR
»
»The u.S. Climate change Science program issued 1.1, the first of 21
»synthesis and Assessment S&A products, earlier this month with
»findings
»
»
>
>
>
»that improve our understanding of climate change and human influences
»on temperature trends.
»
»The report tackles some of the long-standing difficulties that have
»impeded understanding of changes in atmospheric temperatures and the
»basic causes of these changes.
»
»According to the published report, there is no longer a discrepancy in
»the rate of global average temperature increase for the surface
»compared with higher levels in the atmosphere. This discrepancy had
»prev;ously been used to challenge the validity of climate models used
»to detect and attribute the causes of observed climate change. This· is
»an important revision to and update of the conclusions of earlier
»reports from the u.s. National Research council and the
»Intergovernmental panel on climate Change.
»
»please R.S.V.P. if you plan to attend at
>>http://www.publicaffairs.noaa.gov/climate.html
»
»For more information, visit http://www.climatescience.gov
>><http://www.climatescience.gov/>
>>http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sapl-1/finalreport/default.h
»t
»m
>>http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/pressreleases/pressrelease2may20
»0
»6
».htm
»
» .
»*please have your picture identification when you come to the event.*
Page 2
CEQ 017676
RE CommWG CCSP SA 1.1 briefing
»
»
»
»
»
»
»
»
»
>
>
>
Page 3
CEQ 017677
0330 -, ,. 0001
, DRAFT for SGCR/CCSPO Comment 12/14/06
In the last two years, federal agencies with research programs on climate and global change have
worked with members of the research community on two interagency strategic planning exercises. In
the first, from June 2000 to June 2001, the USGCRP prepared a draft strategic plan to meet the
requirements of the Global Change Research Act of 1990. From June to August 2001, an interagency
group planned the CCRI, as directed by President Bush, with leadership from the Department of
Commerce. The Administration has asked that the two planning processes, together with perspectives
from related IPCC and NRC reports, be merged, taking account of scientific developments and the
President's request for short term (2 to 5 years) scientific reporting focused on information to support
public debate and decision making about climate change issues.
1. Decision support
~ Short-term focus (2 to 5 years): In response to directives of the President, the short-term focus will
be on climate change reporting and decision support:
• Develop focused reports (illustrative examples)
o Climate sensitivity-reasons for differences and timeline for resolution?
o Carbon cycle-natural variability and potential for control?
o Black carbon-s-climate change and local air pollution co-benefits?
• Compare alternative strategies (illustrative examples)
o Environmental, energy, and economic effects of different technology strategies
o "Hansen scenario" of controls on aerosols and tropospheric ozone precursors
o Comparing adaptation and mitigation options
• Support decision making on resource management and protection of natural environments
o Develop decision support methods and systems to apply observations/monitoring and
projections to place-based effects of concern
~ Long-term focus (5 to 10 years and beyond): providing targeted information on global change to
support decision making [where global change will continue to be defined as "changes in the
global environment (including alterations in climate, land productivity, oceans or other water
resources, atmospheric chemistry, and ecological systems) that may alter the capacity of the Earth
to sustain life." GCRA 1990J
• The program will also develop focused reports, compare strategies, and support decision making
on the full range of global change issues
These objectives will require increased emphasis on how technologies, the economy, demographics,
and other aspects of society will interact with climate variability and change, the atmosphere and
oceans, nutrient and water cycles, ecosystems, and land use/cover change.
2. Science base
A broad USGCRP and a focused CCRI are essential to support decisions because climate change
cannot be considered in isolation from other environmental and socio-economic trends.
Page I
002364
CEQ 017829
DRAFT for SGCRlCCSPO Comment 12/14/06
In the plan, special emphasis will be placed on CCRI research on key uncertainties regarding
greenhouse gas/aerosol emissions and concentrations, climate system feedbacks, and potential effects
ofconcem.
A section on each research element will describe I) major questions; 2) concise overview of the
current state of knowledge; 3) specific decision support mechanisms and planned reporting schedules;
4) research tasks and needs, including observations and monitoring requirements; 5) uncertainties
unlikely to be resolved within 2-5 years.
Support for "discovery-driven" research will remain an important component of the program.
The plan will describe a strategy for improving global observing systems and US climate modeling
infrastructure that addresses decision support and research element requirements.
4. Program management
The plan will set out the structure and interagency process that will be used to manage the program.
5. Program reports
The plan will define the subject, scope and schedule for program reports planned to be issues during
the next three years.
• A high-level technical summary document of approximately 60-100 pages covering the above
topics
• Strawman implementation plans reflecting the current state of science for major decision support
products and core research elements of the program that focus on deliverablesin two years, four
years, and beyond
Process overview
The Climate Change Science Program Office (CCSPO) and Subcommittee on Global Change
Research (SGCR) of the National Science and Technology Council (NSTC) will provide oversight and
direction for the planning process.
The CCSPO and USGCRP Office will coordinate day-to-day operations, participate in drafting, and
structure the review process and interaction with stakeholders. ' '
Agency research program managers, members of the research community, and decision makers will be
involved in drafting sections of the plan; others from these communities will be involved in reviewing
it.
Final approval will rest with the Committee on Climate Change Science and Technology Integration
(CCCSTI) at the recommendation of the Interagency Working Group on Climate Change Science and
Technology (IWGCCST).
Page 2
CEQ 017830
DRAFT for SGCR/CCSPO Comment 12/14/06
Approximate schedule
The CCSPOfUSGCRP Office will be responsible for integrating the CCRI and USGCRP plans by
November 2002. Steps in the process will include:
Advice is sought from the USGCRP/CCSPO participants regarding the above issues. In particular,
suggestions are solicited on:
• Questions and issues to highlight in decision support activities, with initial emphasis on
climate change and the 2-5 year time frame for deliverables
• Approaches for improving matrix management of cross-cutting issues such as observational
capabilities, modeling requirements and services (including "high-end" climate modeling for
assessment/decision support), and data and information management
• The revised outline of the plan
• Authors
• External reviewers (participants and identified commentators) to involve in the December
workshop
• Other aspects of the planning process
Page 3
CEQ 017831