BP Statistical Review

of World Energy
June 2010

bp.com/statisticalreview

Recession and Recovery

Christof Rühl
Group Chief Economist
© BP 2010
Outline

• Introduction
• Recession and Recovery
• Fuel by Fuel
• Conclusions

© BP 2010

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010

Recession and Recovery

GDP World trade - exports

q-o-q (ann.) growth y-o-y growth
4% 40%
World
30%
2% OECD
20%
Non-OECD
0%
10%
-2% 0%
Non-OECD -10%
-4%
OECD -20%
-6%
-30%
-8% -40%
1Q08 3Q08 1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09
Source: includes data from IMF and BP estimates. © BP 2010

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010

GDP and Energy Consumption Growth

OECD Non-OECD
y-o-y growth y-o-y growth
4% 8%
GDP
Energy
2%
6%

0%
4%
-2%

2%
-4%

-6% 0%
2003-07 2008 2009 2003-07 2008 2009
Source: includes data from Oxford Economics. © BP 2010

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010

Primary Energy Consumption

Growth 2009, Mtoe

300
Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Hydro
200

100

-100

-200

-300
World OECD China & India Other non-OECD
© BP 2010

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010

US Energy Consumption

Energy consumption Industrial energy demand

y-o-y growth y-o-y growth
10% 10%
Industry Oil Gas
5% Other 5%
Industrial Production Coal Electricity
0% 0%

-5% -5%

-10% -10%
-15% -15%
-20% -20%
-25% -25%
Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 2008 2009
Source: includes data from the EIA and US Federal Reserve. © BP 2010

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010

Energy Prices

$/boe
140
Oil (Brent)
120 Gas (Henry Hub)
Coal (Basket)
100

80

60

40

20

0
Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10

Source: includes data from Platts and McCloskey. © BP 2010

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010

Non-Fossil Fuels and Power Generation

Total electricity generation Share of total generation

TWh
Nuclear
20,300 40%
Renewables
From Hydro
fossil 30%
fuels Renewables
20,100

Nuclear Hydro 20%

2008 2009
U
19,900 Ot K
10%

19,700 0%
Decline Growth 2000 2003 2006 2009
© BP 2010

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010

Renewable Energy

Wind capacity Ethanol production

GW Mtoe

200 40
US Germany RoW
Spain China US
RoW Brazil
150 30
Mexico
North Sea
100 20

50 10

0 0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: includes data from BTM Consult, EIA and F.O. Lichts. © BP 2010

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010

Crude Oil Prices

$/bbl
Dated Brent Annual averages
150

120

90

60

30

0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Source: includes data from Platts. © BP 2010

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010

Oil Consumption

Annual growth Annual consumption

Mb/d Mb/d
3 55
OECD Other non-OECD Non-OECD OECD
China Middle East Total 50
2
45
1 40

35
0
30
-1
25

-2 20
2003-07 2008 2009 1995 1999 2003 2007

© BP 2010

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010

OPEC Supply Management

y-o-y growth, Mb/d

Global consumption Non-OPEC supply OPEC supply
2

-1

-2

-3
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09
Source: includes data from the IEA. © BP 2010

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010

OPEC Production

2009 vs 2008 Annual average growth

Mb/d Mb/d
0.8

Saudi UAE
Arabia Kuwait 0.4
Algeria
Libya
Venezuela 0.0
Iran
Angola -0.4
Nigeria Saudi Arabia
Qatar Kuwait/UAE
Ecuador -0.8 Other
Iraq

-1.2 -0.9 -0.6 -0.3 0.0 0.3 -1.2

Decrease Increase 2003-07 2008 2009
© BP 2010

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010

Non-OPEC Production

2009 vs 2008 Oil rig count and oil price

Mb/d Index: Jan 2008 = 100
Mexico OECD 200
Brent price
China FSU
Rig count excl. N. America
Norway Non-OECD US rig count
150
UK
Canada
Azerbaijan 100
Kazakhstan
Brazil
50
Russia
US

-0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0

Decrease Increase Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10
Source: includes data from Baker Hughes and Platts. © BP 2010

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010

Oil Inventories

OECD commercial oil stocks Oil in floating storage

Mbbls Mbbls
Crude Distillate
2900 160
04-08 Range 2009 2010
2800
120

2700
80
2600

40
2500

2400 0
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10
Source: includes data from IEA. © BP 2010

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010

Refining Margins and Spare Capacity

Refining margins Spare capacity growth

$/bbl y-o-y, Mb/d
10 4
BP GIM From new facilities
10-yr. Av. From lower crude runs
8
3

6
2
4

1
2

0 0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2006 2007 2008 2009
ytd
Source: includes data from Parpinelli Technon and ESAI. © BP 2010

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010

Crude Runs and Refinery Utilisation

Crude run growth Refinery utilisation

y-o-y, Mb/d
2 90%
non-OECD
OECD
1 87%

0 84%

-1 81%
World OECD
non-OECD
-2 78%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: includes data from Parpinelli-Technon and ESAI. © BP 2010

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010

Natural Gas Market

Gas prices 2009 vs 2008

$/Mmbtu Bcm
12 40
AGIP
Henry Hub 20
10 Other
0
8
-20
6 OECD
-40
4
-60 FSU

2
-80

0 -100
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Consumption Production
ytd
Source: includes data from Platts and BMWi. © BP 2010

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010

US Natural Gas Production

Production growth vs. rig count Total gas production

y-o-y, Bcm Bcm
2008 600
30

2009 2007 550

20
Shale
2006 500
10 Coal bed methane
450
0
400
Other
-10
350
2005
-20 300
700 900 1100 1300 1500 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Gas rig count
Source: includes data from the EIA and Baker Hughes. © BP 2010

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010

US Power Sector Fuel Switching

Cost in power generation* Gas share of generation from gas/coal

$/MWh
100 40%
2008

80 2009
30%

60
20%
40

10%
20
Central Appalachian coal
Henry Hub
0 0%
Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Source: includes data from the EIA and Platts. * Accounting for thermal efficiencies and transport cost of coal. © BP 2010

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010

Liquefied Natural Gas

LNG exports by basin LNG import growth by region

Bcm y-o-y, Bcm
250 20

200
Middle East Europe
10
150

Pacific Basin Other

100
0
Asia
50
Atlantic Basin
0 -10
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2007 2008 2009
Source: includes data from Cedigaz. © BP 2010

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010

Gas-On-Gas Competition

Europe - 2009 vs 2008 FSU - 2009 vs 2008

Bcm Bcm
20 20

Net LNG
0 0
Net
-20 pipeline Cons. -20
Cons.
Prod.
-40 -40
Prod.
-60 -60

-80 -80

-100 -100
Source: includes data from Cedigaz. © BP 2010

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010

Oil and Natural Gas Proved Reserves

Oil Natural Gas

Trillion bbls Trillion m3
Canadian oil sands
2.0 Other 200 OECD
OECD Other
FSU Middle East
OPEC FSU
1.5 150
Mexico
North Sea
1.0 100

0.5 50

0.0 0
1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009
Note: Canadian Oil Sands are ‘remaining established reserves’, less reserves ‘under active development’ (from 1999 only). © BP 2010

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010

Coal Consumption and Production

Consumption growth 2009 production changes ex-China

Mtoe Mtoe
200
India

Indonesia
100
Australia

Vietnam
0
Poland
China
Kazakhstan
-100 India
OECD Russia
Rest of World US
-200
2003-07 2008 2009 -60 -40 -20 0 20
© BP 2010

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010

Coal Prices and Indian Ocean Exports

Coal prices Export shares

$/tonne
200 40%
to China to India

150 30%

100 20%

50 10%
Japan Steam coal
Qinhuangdao Spot
Newcastle, Australia
0 0%
08 09 08 09 08 09
Jan-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Apr-09 Jan-10 Australia Indonesia South Africa
Source: includes data from McCloskey, Platts and FACTS. © BP 2010

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010

Chinese Coal Consumption

Chinese GDP, coal and electricity 2009 coal consumption by use

y-o-y growth y-o-y growth
20% 20%
GDP
Coal
Electricity
15% 15%

Total
10% 10%

5% 5%

0% 0%
2003-07 2008 2009 Cement Steel Other Power
Source: includes coal use estimates based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics. © BP 2010

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010

Conclusion

• It’s the Economy

• Maintaining growth has been energy intensive
• Long term trends in major fuel markets accelerated
during recession and recovery
• So did the global re-allocation of energy resources,
supporting growth in the developing world

© BP 2010

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010