Kyoto Protocol 1

Kyoto Protocol
The Kyoto Protocol is a protocol to
the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC or FCCC), aimed at
fighting global warming. The
UNFCCC is an international
environmental treaty with the goal of
achieving "stabilization of greenhouse
gas concentrations in the atmosphere at
a level that would prevent dangerous
Overview map Of States Committed by the Kyoto Protocol as of 2010. Green countries =
anthropogenic interference with the Those of the Annex I countries who are fully committed (also called Annex II
climate system."[4] countries).Yellow countries = Annex I countries who only are committed within some
freedom as to their requirements in the protocol. Also called Countries with Economics in
The Protocol was initially adopted on Transition (EIT)).Red countries = are not committed by the Kyoto Protocol. Are either
11 December 1997 in Kyoto, Japan countries who have Non-annex 1 status in the protocol, and thereby are not committed or
and entered into force on 16 February countries that have not signed the protocol yetBasse, Ellen Magrethe, Miljøretten Bind 6,
2010, page 692-693
2005. As of July 2010, 191 states have
signed and ratified the protocol.[5]
Under the Protocol, 37 countries
"Annex I countries") commit
themselves to a reduction of four
greenhouse gases (GHG) (carbon
dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide,
sulphur hexafluoride) and two groups
of gases (hydrofluorocarbons and
perfluorocarbons) produced by them,
and all member countries give general
commitments. Annex I countries Overview map Of States Committed to a reduction in the 2008-2012 Kyoto Protocol
agreed to reduce their collective [2]
period . Green countries = Committed to reduction Yellow countries = Committed to
greenhouse gas emissions by 5.2% 0% reduction Red countries = Not committed to any reduction EU-countries like
Greece,Spain,Ireland and Sweden have not committed themselves to any reduction while
from the 1991 level. Emission limits
France has committed itself not to expand its emissions (0% reduction) in the internal-EU
do not include emissions by distribution agreement. This agreement ensures a 8% reduction for the EU-region as a
international aviation and shipping, but [3]
whole in accordance with the Kyoto Protocol. . Greenland has only committed itself
are in addition to the industrial gases, through Denmark. However Greenland has not committed itself to a reduction towards
Denmark. But might do it in the next period.
chlorofluorocarbons, or CFCs, which
are dealt with under the 1987 Montreal
Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer.

The benchmark 1990 emission levels were accepted by the Conference of the Parties of UNFCCC (decision 2/CP.3)
were the values of "global
Kyoto Protocol 2

warming potential" calculated for the

IPCC Second Assessment Report.[6]
These figures are used for converting
the various greenhouse gas emissions
into comparable CO2 equivalents
(CO2-eq) when computing overall
sources and sinks.

The Protocol allows for several

"flexible mechanisms", such as
emissions trading, the clean Participation in the Kyoto Protocol, as of June 2009,
development mechanism (CDM) and Green = Countries that have signed and ratified the treaty
joint implementation to allow Annex I Grey = Countries that have not yet decided
Red = No intention to ratify at this stage.
countries to meet their GHG emission
limitations by purchasing GHG
emission reductions credits from elsewhere, through financial exchanges, projects that reduce emissions in
non-Annex I countries, from other Annex I countries, or from annex I countries with excess allowances.

Each Annex I country is required to submit an annual report of inventories of all anthropogenic greenhouse gas
emissions from sources and removals from sinks under UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol. These countries nominate
a person (called a "designated national authority") to create and manage its greenhouse gas inventory. Virtually all of
the non-Annex I countries have also established a designated national authority to manage its Kyoto obligations,
specifically the "CDM process" that determines which GHG projects they wish to propose for accreditation by the
CDM Executive Board.

Background
The view that human activities are likely responsible for most of the observed increase in global mean temperature
("global warming") since the mid-20th century is an accurate reflection of current scientific thinking (NRC, 2001,
p. 3,[7] 2008, p. 2).[8] Human-induced warming of the climate is expected to continue
IPCC (2007) produced a range of projections of what the future increase in global mean temperature might be.[9]
Projections spanned a range due to socio-economic uncertainties, e.g., over future greenhouse gas (GHG) emission
levels, and uncertainties with regard to physical science aspects, e.g., the climate sensitivity. For the time period
2090-2099, measured from global mean temperature in the period 1980-1999, the "likely" range (as assessed to have
a greater than 66% probability of being correct, based on expert judgement) across the six SRES "marker" emissions
scenarios was projected as an increase in global mean temperature of 1.1 to 6.4 °C.
The scientific question of what constitutes a "safe" level of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations has been
asked (NRC, 2001, p. 4). This question cannot be answered directly since it requires value judgements of, for
example, what would be an acceptable risk to human welfare. In general, however, risks increase with both the rate
and magnitude of future climate change.
Kyoto Protocol 3

Ratification process
The Protocol was adopted by COP 3 on 11 December 1997 in Kyoto, Japan. It was opened on 16 March 1998 for
signature by parties to UNFCCC.
Article 25 of the Protocol specifies that the Protocol enters into force "on the ninetieth day after the date on which
not less than 55 Parties to the Convention, incorporating Parties included in Annex I which accounted in total for at
least 55% of the total carbon dioxide emissions for 1990 of the Annex I countries, have deposited their instruments
of ratification, acceptance, approval or accession."
The EU and its Member States ratified the Protocol in May 2002.[10] Of the two conditions, the "55 parties" clause
was reached on 23 May 2002 when Iceland ratified the Protocol. The ratification by Russia on 18 November 2004
satisfied the "55%" clause and brought the treaty into force, effective 16 February 2005, after the required lapse of
90 days.
As of November 2009, 187 countries and one regional economic organization (the EC) have ratified the agreement,
representing over 63.9% of the 1990 emissions from Annex I countries.[5] The most notable non-party to the
Protocol is the United States, which is a party to UNFCCC and was responsible for 36.1% of the 1990 emission
levels of Annex I countries. Countries like China, India and Brazil are also still in the non-annex group. This makes
them without commitments to the Kyoto protocol and with no obligation to limit their CO2 emissions thereby also
limiting their industry. As of now these countries haven't changed their minds about not making commitments by
letting them be defined as Annex-I Countries. The Protocol can be signed and ratified only by parties to UNFCCC,
(Article 24) and a country can withdraw by giving 12 months notice. (Article 27)

Objectives
The objective is the "stabilization and reconstruction of
greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a
level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic
interference with the climate system."[4]
The objective of the Kyoto climate change conference
was to establish a legally binding international
agreement, whereby all the participating nations
commit themselves to tackling the issue of global
warming and greenhouse gas emissions. The target
agreed upon was an average reduction of 5.2% from
1990 levels by the year 2012. According to the treaty,
in 2012, Annex I countries must have fulfilled their
obligations of reduction of greenhouse gases emissions Kyoto is intended to cut global emissions of greenhouse gases.

established for the first commitment period

(2008–2012) (see Annex B of the Protocol). The Protocol expires at the end of 2012.

The five principal concepts of the Kyoto Protocol are:

• Commitments to the Annex-countries. The heart of the Protocol lies in establishing commitments for the
reduction of greenhouse gases that are legally binding for Annex I countries. Dividing the countries in different
groups is one of the key concepts in making commitments possible, where only the Annex I countries in 1997,
where seen as having the economic capacity to commit themselves and their industry. Making only the few
nations in the Annex 1 group committed to the protocols limitations.
• Implementation. In order to meet the objectives of the Protocol, Annex I countries are required to prepare policies
and measures for the reduction of greenhouse gases in their respective countries. In addition, they are required to
Kyoto Protocol 4

increase the absorption of these gases and utilize all mechanisms available, such as joint implementation, the
clean development mechanism and emissions trading, in order to be rewarded with credits that would allow more
greenhouse gas emissions at home.
• Minimizing Impacts on Developing Countries by establishing an adaptation fund for climate change.
• Accounting, Reporting and Review in order to ensure the integrity of the Protocol.
• Compliance. Establishing a Compliance Committee to enforce compliance with the commitments under the
Protocol.

2012 emission targets and "flexible mechanisms"

39 of the 40 Annex I countries have ratified the Protocol. Of these 34 have committed themselves to a reduction of
greenhouse gases (GHG) produced by them to targets that are set in relation to their 1990 emission levels, in
accordance with Annex B of the Protocol. The targets apply to the four greenhouse gases carbon dioxide, methane,
nitrous oxide, sulphur hexafluoride, and two groups of gases, hydrofluorocarbons and perfluorocarbons. The six
GHG are translated into CO2 equivalents in determining reductions in emissions. These reduction targets are in
addition to the industrial gases, chlorofluorocarbons, or CFCs, which are dealt with under the 1987 Montreal
Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer.
Under the Protocol, only the Annex I countries have committed themselves to national or joint reduction targets,
(formally called "quantified emission limitation and reduction objectives" (QELRO) - Article 4.1) that range from a
joint reduction of 8% for the European Union and others, to 7% for the United States (non-binding as the US is not a
signatory), 6% for Japan and 0% for Russia. The treaty permits emission increases of 8% for Australia and 10% for
Iceland.[11] Emission limits do not include emissions by international aviation and shipping.
Annex I countries can achieve their targets by allocating reduced annual allowances to major operators within their
borders, or by allowing these operators to exceed their allocations by offsetting any excess through a mechanism that
is agreed by all the parties to the UNFCCC, such as by buying emission allowances from other operators which have
excess emissions credits.
38 of the 39 Annex I countries have agreed to cap their emissions in this way, two others are required to do so under
their conditions of accession into the EU, and one more (Belarus) is seeking to become an Annex I country.

Flexible mechanisms
The Protocol defines three "flexibility mechanisms" that can be used by Annex I countries in meeting their emission
reduction commitments (Bashmakov et al.., 2001, p. 402).[12] The flexibility mechanisms are International
Emissions Trading (IET), the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), and Joint Implementation (JI). IET allows
Annex I countries to "trade" their emissions (Assigned Amount Units, AAUs, or "allowances" for short). For IET,
the economic basis for providing this flexibility is that the marginal cost of emission abatement differs among
countries. Trade could potentially allow the Annex I countries to meet their emission reduction commitments at a
reduced cost. This is because trade allows emissions to be abated first in countries where the costs of abatement are
lowest, thus increasing the efficiency of the Kyoto agreement.
The CDM and JI are called "project-based mechanisms," in that they generate emission reductions from projects.
The difference between IET and the project-based mechanisms is that IET is based on the setting of a quantitative
restriction of emissions, while the CDM and JI are based on the idea of "production" of emission reductions (Toth et
al.., 2001, p. 660).[13] The CDM is designed to encourage production of emission reductions in non-Annex I
countries, while JI encourages production of emission reductions in Annex I countries.
The production of emission reductions generated by the CDM and JI can be used by Annex B countries in meeting
their emission reduction commitments. The emission reductions produced by the CDM and JI are both measured
against a hypothetical baseline of emissions that would have occurred in the absence of a particular emission
Kyoto Protocol 5

reduction project. The emission reductions produced by the CDM are called Certified Emission Reductions (CERs);
reductions produced by JI are called Emission Reduction Units (ERUs). The reductions are called "credits" because
they are emission reductions credited against a hypothetical baseline of emissions.

International Emissions Trading

The most advanced emissions trading system (ETS) is the one developed by the EU (Gupta et al.., 2007).[14]
Ellerman and Buchner (2008) (referenced in Grubb et al.., 2009, p. 11) suggested that during its first two years in
operation, the EU ETS turned an expected increase in emissions of 1-2 percent per year into a small absolute
decline.[15] Grubb et al.. (2009, p. 11) suggested that a reasonable estimate for the emissions cut achieved during its
first two years of operation was 50-100 MtCO2 per year, or 2.5-5 percent.

Clean Development Mechanism

Between 2001, which was the first year CDM projects could be registered, and 2012, the end of the Kyoto
commitment period, the CDM is expected to produce some 1.5 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) in
emission reductions.[16] Most of these reductions are through renewable energy, energy efficiency, and fuel
switching (World Bank, 2010, p. 262). By 2012, the largest potential for production of CERs are estimated in China
(52% of total CERs) and India (16%). CERs produced in Latin America and the Caribbean make up 15% of the
potential total, with Brazil as the largest producer in the region (7%).

Joint Implementation
The formal crediting period for JI was aligned with the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol, and did not
start until January 2008 (Carbon Trust, 2009, p. 20).[17] In November 2008, only 22 JI projects had been officially
approved and registered. The total projected emission savings from JI by 2012 are about one tenth that of the CDM.
Russia accounts for about two-thirds of these savings, with the remainder divided up roughly equally between the
Ukraine and the EU's New Member States. Emission savings include cuts in methane, HFC, and N2O emissions.

Details of the agreement

According to a press release from the United Nations Environment Program:
"After 10 days of tough negotiations, ministers and other high-level officials from 160 countries reached
agreement this morning on a legally binding Protocol under which industrialized countries will reduce their
collective emissions of greenhouse gases by 5.2%.
The agreement aims to lower overall emissions from a group of six greenhouse gases by 2008–12, calculated
as an average over these five years. Cuts in the three most important gases – carbon dioxide (CO2), methane
(CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) – will be measured against a base year of 1990. Cuts in three long-lived
industrial gases – hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) – can
be measured against either a 1990 or 1995 baseline."
National limitations range from 8% reductions for the European Union and others, to 7% for the US, 6% for Japan,
0% for Russia, and permitted increases of 8% for Australia and 10% for Iceland.[11]
The agreement supplements the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) adopted at
the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, which did not set any limitations or enforcement mechanisms. All
parties to UNFCCC can sign or ratify the Kyoto Protocol, while non-parties to UNFCCC cannot. The Kyoto Protocol
was adopted at the third session of the Conference of Parties to the UNFCCC (COP 3) in 1997 in Kyoto, Japan. Most
provisions of the Kyoto Protocol apply to developed countries, listed in Annex I to UNFCCC.
National emission targets exclude international aviation and shipping. Kyoto Parties can use land use, land use
change, and forestry (LULUCF) in meeting their targets (Dessai, 2001, p. 3).[18] LULUCF activities are also called
"sink" activities. Changes in sinks and land use can have an effect on the climate (IPCC, 2007).[19] Particular criteria
Kyoto Protocol 6

apply to the definition of forestry under the Kyoto Protocol.

Forest management, cropland management, grazing land management, and revegetation are all eligible LULUCF
activities under the Protocol (Dessai, 2001, p. 9). Annex I Parties use of forestry management in meeting their targets
is capped.

Common but differentiated responsibility

UNFCCC adopts a principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities." The parties agreed that:
1. the largest share of historical and current global emissions of greenhouse gases originated in developed countries;
2. per capita emissions in developing countries are still relatively low;
3. the share of global emissions originating in developing countries will grow to meet social and development
needs.[20]

Emissions
Per-capita emissions are a country's total emissions divided by its population (Banuri et al.., 1996, p. 95).[21]
Per-capita emissions in the industrialized countries are typically as much as ten times the average in developing
countries (Grubb, 2003, p. 144).[22] This is one reason industrialized countries accepted responsibility for leading
climate change efforts in the Kyoto negotiations. In Kyoto, the countries that took on quantified commitments for the
first period (2008–12) corresponded roughly to those with per-capita emissions in 1990 of two tonnes of carbon or
higher. In 2005, the top-20 emitters comprised 80% of total GHG emissions (PBL, 2010. See also the notes in the
following section on the top-ten emitters in 2005).[23] Countries with a Kyoto target made up 20% of total GHG
emissions.
Another way of measuring GHG emissions is to measure the total emissions that have accumulated in the
atmosphere over time (IEA, 2007, p. 199).[24] Over a long time period, cumulative emissions provide an indication
of a country's total contribution to GHG concentrations in the atmosphere. Over the 1900-2005 period, the US was
the world's largest cumulative emitter of energy-related CO2 emissions, and accounted for 30% of total cumulative
emissions (IEA, 2007, p. 201). The second largest emitter was the EU, at 23%; the third largest was China, at 8%;
fourth was Japan, at 4%; fifth was India, at 2%. The rest of the world accounted for 33% of global, cumulative,
energy-related CO2 emissions.
Top-ten emitters
What follows is a ranking of the world's top ten emitters of GHGs for 2005 (MNP, 2007).[25] The first figure is the
country's or region's emissions as a percentage of the global total. The second figure is the country's/region's
per-capita emissions, in units of tons of GHG per-capita:
1. China1 – 17%, 5.8
2. United States3 – 16%, 24.1
3. European Union-273 – 11%, 10.6
4. Indonesia2 - 6%, 12.9
5. India – 5%, 2.1
6. Russia3 – 5%, 14.9
7. Brazil – 4%, 10.0
8. Japan3 – 3%, 10.6
9. Canada3 – 2%, 23.2
10. Mexico – 2%, 6.4
Notes
• These values are for the GHG emissions from fossil fuel use and cement production. Calculations are for carbon
dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and gases containing fluorine (the F-gases HFCs, PFCs and
Kyoto Protocol 7

SF6).
• These estimates are subject to large uncertainties regarding CO2 emissions from deforestation; and the per country
emissions of other GHGs (e.g., methane). There are also other large uncertainties which mean that small
differences between countries are not significant. CO2 emissions from the decay of remaining biomass after
biomass burning/deforestation are not included.
1
• excluding underground fires.
2
• including an estimate of 2000 million tonnes CO2 from peat fires and decomposition of peat soils after draining.
However, the uncertainty range is very large.
3
• Industrialised countries: official country data reported to UNFCCC

Financial commitments
The Protocol also reaffirms the principle that developed countries have to pay billions of dollars, and supply
technology to other countries for climate-related studies and projects. The principle was originally agreed in
UNFCCC.

Revisions
The protocol left several issues open to be decided later by the sixth Conference of Parties (COP). COP6 attempted
to resolve these issues at its meeting in the Hague in late 2000, but was unable to reach an agreement due to disputes
between the European Union on the one hand (which favoured a tougher agreement) and the United States, Canada,
Japan and Australia on the other (which wanted the agreement to be less demanding and more flexible).
In 2001, a continuation of the previous meeting (COP6bis) was held in Bonn where the required decisions were
adopted. After some concessions, the supporters of the protocol (led by the European Union) managed to get Japan
and Russia in as well by allowing more use of carbon dioxide sinks.
COP7 was held from 29 October 2001 through 9 November 2001 in Marrakech to establish the final details of the
protocol.
The first Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (MOP1) was held in Montreal from 28 November to 9
December 2005, along with the 11th conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC (COP11). See United Nations
Climate Change Conference.
The 3 December 2007, Australia ratified the protocol during the first day of the COP13 in Bali.
Of the signatories, 36 developed C.G. countries (plus the EU as a party in the European Union)agreed to a 10%
emissions increase for Iceland; but, since the EU's member states each have individual obligations,[26] much larger
increases (up to 27%) are allowed for some of the less developed EU countries (see below Kyoto Protocol#Increase
in greenhouse gas emission since 1990).[27] Reduction limitations expire in 2013.

Enforcement
If the enforcement branch determines that an annex I country is not in compliance with its emissions limitation, then
that country is required to make up the difference plus an additional 30%. In addition, that country will be suspended
from making transfers under an emissions trading program.[28]

Negotiations
Article 4.2 of the UNFCCC commits industrialized countries to "[take] the lead" in reducing emissions (Grubb,
2003, p. 144).[22] The initial aim was for industrialized countries to stabilize their emissions at 1990 levels by the
year 2000. The failure of key industrialized countries to move in this direction was a principal reason why Kyoto
moved to binding commitments.
Kyoto Protocol 8

At the first UNFCCC Conference of the Parties in Berlin, the G77 (a coalition of 77 developing nations within the
UN) was able to push for a mandate where it was recognized that (Liverman, 2008, p. 12):[29]
• developed nations had contributed most to the then-current concentrations of GHGs in the atmosphere
• developing country emissions per-capita were still relatively low
• and that the share of global emissions from developing countries would grow to meet their development needs.
This mandate was recognized in the Kyoto Protocol in that developing countries were not subject to emission
reduction commitments in the first Kyoto commitment period. However, the large potential for growth in developing
country emissions made negotiations on this issue tense (Grubb, 2003, p. 145-146). In the final agreement, the Clean
Development Mechanism was designed to limit emissions in developing countries, but in such a way that developing
countries do not bear the costs for limiting emissions. The general assumption was that developing countries would
face quantitative commitments in later commitment periods, and at the same time, developed countries would meet
their first round commitments.

Base year
The choice of the 1990 base year remains in Kyoto, as it does in the original Framework Convention. The desire to
move to historical emissions was rejected on the basis that good data was not available prior to 1990. The 1990 base
year also favoured several powerful interests including the UK, Germany and Russia (Liverman, 2008, p. 12).[29]
This is because the UK and Germany had high CO2 emissions in 1990.
In the UK following 1990, emissions had declined because of a switch from coal to gas ("dash for gas"), which has
lower emissions than coal. This was due to the UK's privatization of coal mining and its switch to natural gas
supported by North sea reserves. Germany benefitted from the 1990 base year because of its reunification between
West and East Germany. East Germany's emissions fell dramatically following the collapse of East German industry
after the fall of the Berlin Wall. Germany could therefore take credit for the resultant decline in emissions.
Japan promoted the idea of flexible baselines, and favoured a base year of 1995 for HFCs. Their HFC emissions had
grown in the early 1990s as a substitute for CFCs banned in the Montreal Protocol (Liverman, 2008, p. 13). Some of
the former Soviet satellites wanted a base year to reflect their highest emissions prior to their industrial collapse.

Emissions cuts
The G77 wanted strong uniform emission cuts across the developed world of 15% (Liverman, 2008, p. 13).[29]
Countries, such as the US, made suggestions to reduce their responsibility to reduce emissions. These suggestions
included:
• the inclusion of carbon sinks (e.g., by including forests, that absorb CO2 from the atmosphere).
• and having net current emissions as the basis for responsibility, i.e., ignoring historical emissions.
The US originally proposed for the second round of negotiations on Kyoto commitments to follow the negotiations
of the first (Grubb, 2003, p. 148).[22] In the end, negotiations on the second period were set to open no later than
2005. Countries over-achieving in their first period commitments can "bank" their unused allowances for use in the
subsequent period.
The EU initially argued for only three GHGs to be included – CO2, CH4, and N2O – with other gases such as HFCs
regulated separately (Liverman, 2008, p. 13). The EU also wanted to have a "bubble" commitment, whereby it could
make a collective commitment that allowed some EU members to increase their emissions, while others cut theirs.
The most vulnerable nations – the Association of Small Island States (AOSIS) – pushed for deep uniform cuts by
developed nations, with the goal of having emissions reduced to the greatest possible extent.
The final days of negotiation of the Protocol saw a clash between the EU and the US and Japan (Grubb, 2003,
p. 149). The EU aimed for flat-rate reductions in the range of 10-15% below 1990 levels, while the US and Japan
supported reductions of 0-5%. Countries that had supported differentiation had different ideas as to how it should be
calculated, and many different indicators were proposed: relating to GDP, energy intensity (energy use per unit of
Kyoto Protocol 9

economic output), etc. According to Grubb (2003, p. 149), the only common theme of these indicators was that each
proposal suited the interests of the country making the proposal.
The final commitments negotiated in the Protocol are the result of last minute political compromises (Liverman,
2008, p. 13-14). These include an 8% cut from the 1990 base year for the EU, 7% for the US, 6% for Canada and
Japan, no cut for Russia, and an 8% increase for Australia. This sums to an overall cut of 5.2% below 1990 levels.
Since Australia and the US did not ratify the treaty (although Australia has since done), the cut is reduced from 5.2%
to about 2%.
Considering the growth of some economies and the collapse of others since 1990, the range of implicit targets is
much greater (Aldy et al.., 2003, p. 7).[30] The US faced a cut of about 30% below "business-as-usual" (BAU)
emissions (i.e., predicted emissions should there be no attempt to limit emissions), while Russia and other economies
in transition faced targets that allowed substantial increases in their emissions above BAU. On the other hand, Grubb
(2003, p. 151) pointed out that the US, having per-capita emissions twice that of most other OECD countries, was
vulnerable to the suggestion that it had huge potential for making reductions. From this viewpoint, the US was
obliged to cut emissions back more than other countries.

Flexibility mechanisms
Negotiations over the flexibility mechanisms included in the Protocol proved controversial (Grubb, 2003, p. 153).[22]
Japan and some EU member states wanted to ensure that any emissions trading would be competitive and
transparent. Their intention was to prevent the US from using its political leverage to gain preferential access to the
likely surplus in Russian emission allowances. The EU was also anxious to prevent the US from avoiding domestic
action to reduce its emissions. Developing countries were concerned that the US would use flexibility to its own
advantage, over the interests of weaker countries.

Compliance
The protocol defines a mechanism of "compliance" as a "monitoring compliance with the commitments and penalties
for non-compliance."[31] According to Grubb (2003, p. 157), the explicit consequences of non-compliance of the
treaty are weak compared to domestic law.[22] Yet, the compliance section of the treaty was highly contested in the
Marrakesh Accords. According to Grubb (2003), Japan made some unsuccessful efforts to "water-down" the
compliance package.

Government action and emissions

Annex I
In total, Annex I Parties to the UNFCCC (including the
US) managed a cut of 3.3% in GHG emissions between
1990 and 2004 (UNFCCC, 2007, p. 11).[32] In 2007,
projections indicated rising emissions of 4.2% between
1990 and 2010. This projection assumed that no further
mitigation action would be taken. The reduction in the
1990s was driven significantly by economic
restructuring in the economies-in-transition (EITs. See
the following section for the list of EITs). Emission
reductions in the EITs had little to do with climate
change policy (Carbon Trust, 2009, p. 24).[17] Some Carbon emissions from various global regions during the period
1800–2000 AD
Kyoto Protocol 10

reductions in Annex I emissions have occurred due to policy measures, such as promoting energy efficiency
(UNFCCC, 2007, p. 11).
Progress towards targets
Progress toward the emission reduction commitments set in the Kyoto Protocol has been mixed. World Bank (2008,
p. 6) reported that there were significant differences in performance across individual countries:[33]
• For the Annex I non-Economies-in-Transition (non-EIT) Kyoto Protocol (KP) Parties, emissions in 2005 were
5% higher than 1990 levels (World Bank, 2008, p. 59). Their Kyoto target for 2008-2012 is for a 6% reduction in
emissions. The Annex I non-EITs KP Parties are Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France,
Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Monaco, Netherlands, New Zealand,
Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom.
• The Annex I Economies in Transition (EIT) KP Parties emissions in 2005 were 35% below 1990 levels. Their
Kyoto target is for a 2% reduction. The Annex I EIT KP Parties are Belarus, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic,
Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russian Federation, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Ukraine.
• In 2005, the Annex I non-KP Parties emissions were 18% above their 1990 levels. The Annex I non-KP Parties
are Turkey and the United States.
• In total, the Annex I KP Parties emissions for 2005 were 14% below their 1990 levels. Their Kyoto target is for a
4% reduction.
KP Parties
According to the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL, 2009), the industrialized countries with a
Kyoto target will, as a group, probably meet their emission limitation requirements.[34] Collectively, this was for a
4% reduction relative to 1990 levels. A linear extrapolation of the 2000-2005 emissions trend led to a projected
emission reduction in 2010 of almost 11%. Including the potential contribution of CDM projects, which may account
for emissions reductions of approximately 500 megatonnes CO2-eq per year, the reduction might be as large as 15%.
The expected reduction of 11% was attributed to the limited increase in emissions in OECD countries, but was
particularly due to the large reduction of about 40% until 1999 in the EITs. The reduction in emissions for the
smaller EITs aids the EU-27 in meeting their collective target. The EU expects that it will meet its collective target
of an 8% reduction for the EU-15. This reduction includes:
• CDM and JI projects, which are planned to contribute 2.5% towards the target;
• carbon storage in forests and soils (carbon sinks), which contribute another 0.9%.
Japan expects to meet its Kyoto target, which includes a 1.6% reduction from CDM projects and a 3.9% reduction
from carbon storage, contributing to a total reduction of 5.5%. In other OECD countries, emissions have increased.
In Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Switzerland, emissions have increased by 25% compared to the base year,
while in Norway, the increase was 9%. In the view of PBL (2009), these countries will only be able to meet their
targets by purchasing sufficient CDM credits or by buying emissions ("hot air") from EIT countries.
Non-KP Parties
Emissions in the US have increased 16% since 1990. According to PBL (2009), the US will not meet its original
Kyoto target of a 6% reduction in emissions.[34]

Non-Annex I
UNFCCC (2005) compiled and synthesized information reported to it by non-Annex I Parties.[35] Most non-Annex I
Parties belonged in the low-income group, with very few classified as middle-income. They are not obligated by the
limits of emissions in the Kyoto Protocol (p. 4). Fast growing economy countries like China, South Africa, India and
Brazil are still in this non-comitted group. Most Parties included information on policies relating to sustainable
development. Sustainable development priorities mentioned by non-Annex I Parties included poverty alleviation and
access to basic education and health care (p. 6). Many non-Annex I Parties are making efforts to amend and update
Kyoto Protocol 11

their environmental legislation to include global concerns such as climate change (p. 7).
A few Parties, e.g., South Africa and Iran, stated their concern over how efforts to reduce emissions could affect their
economies. The economies of these countries are highly dependent on income generated from the production,
processing, and export of fossil fuels.
As the Non-Annex 1 countries arent obligated to any commitment on emmissions some critics argue that their
signatures on the protocol have been free and unsignificant.
Emissions
GHG emissions, excluding land use change and forestry (LUCF), reported by 122 non-Annex I Parties for the year
1994 or the closest year reported, totalled 11.7 billion tonnes (billion = 1,000,000,000) of CO2-eq. CO2 was the
largest proportion of emissions (63%), followed by methane (26%) and nitrous oxide (N2O) (11%).
The energy sector was the largest source of emissions for 70 Parties, whereas for 45 Parties the agriculture sector
was the largest. Per capita emissions (in tonnes of CO2-eq, excluding LUCF) averaged 2.8 tonnes for the 122
non-Annex I Parties.
• The Africa region's aggregate emissions were 1.6 billion tonnes, with per capita emissions of 2.4 tonnes.
• The Asia and Pacific region's aggregate emissions were 7.9 billion tonnes, with per capita emissions of
2.6 tonnes.
• The Latin America and Caribbean region's aggregate emissions were 2 billion tonnes, with per capita emissions of
4.6 tonnes.
• The "other" region includes Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Malta, Republic of Moldova, and the former
Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. Their aggregate emissions were 0.1 billion tonnes, with per capita emissions of
5.1 tonnes.
Parties reported a high level of uncertainty in LUCF emissions, but in aggregate, there appeared to only be a small
difference of 1.7% with and without LUCF. With LUCF, emissions were 11.9 billion tonnes, without LUCF, total
aggregate emissions were 11.7 billion tonnes.
Trends
In several large developing countries and fast growing economies (China, India, Thailand, Indonesia, Egypt, and
Iran) GHG emissions have increased rapidly (PBL, 2009).[34] For example, emissions in China have risen strongly
over the 1990-2005 period, often by more than 10% year. Emissions per-capita in non-Annex I countries are still, for
the most part, much lower than in industrialized countries. Non-Annex I countries do not have quantitative emission
reduction commitments, but they are committed to mitigation actions. China, for example, has had a national policy
programme to reduce emissions growth, which included the closure of old, less efficient coal-fired power plants.

Views on the Protocol

Gupta et al. (2007) assessed the literature on climate change policy. They found that no authoritative assessments of
the UNFCCC or its Protocol asserted that these agreements had, or will, succeed in solving the climate problem.[36]
In these assessments, it was assumed that the UNFCCC or its Protocol would not be changed. The Framework
Convention and its Protocol include provisions for future policy actions to be taken.
World Bank (2010, p. 233) commented on how the Kyoto Protocol had only had a slight effect on curbing global
emissions growth.[16] The treaty was negotiated in 1997, but by 2005, energy-related emissions had grown 24%.
World Bank (2010) also stated that the treaty had provided only limited financial support to developing countries to
assist them in reducing their emissions and adapting to climate change.
Some of the criticism of the Protocol has been based on the idea of climate justice (Liverman, 2008, p. 14).[29] This
has particularly centred on the balance between the low emissions and high vulnerability of the developing world to
climate change, compared to high emissions in the developed world.
Kyoto Protocol 12

Some environmentalists have supported the Kyoto Protocol because it is "the only game in town," and possibly
because they expect that future emission reduction commitments may demand more stringent emission reductions
(Aldy et al.., 2003, p. 9).[30] In 2001, sixteen national science academies[37] stated that ratification of the Protocol
represented a "small but essential first step towards stabilising atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases."[38]
Some environmentalists and scientists have criticized the existing commitments for being too weak (Grubb, 2000,
p. 5).[39]
Many economists think that the commitments are stronger than is justified (Grubb, 2000, p. 31). The lack of
quantitative emission commitments for developing countries led the US and Australia (under Prime Minister John
Howard) to decide not to ratify the treaty (Stern 2007, p. 478).[40] Australia, under former Prime Minister Kevin
Rudd, has since ratified the treaty. Despite ratification, Australia has thus far not implemented legislation to bring
itself into compliance.
In May 2010 the Hartwell Paper was published by the London School of Economics with funding from the Japan
Iron and Steel Federation, Tokyo, Japan and Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, Inc., Tokyo, Japan .[41]
The authors argued that after what they regard as the failure of the 2009 Copenhagen Climate Summit, the Kyoto
Protocol crashed and they claimed that it "has failed to produce any discernable real world reductions in emissions
of greenhouse gases in fifteen years."[41] [42] They argued that this failure opened an opportunity to set climate policy
free from Kyoto and the paper advocates a controversial and piecemeal approach to decarbonization of the global
economy.[43] [44] [45]

Successor
In the non-binding 'Washington Declaration' agreed on 16 February 2007, Heads of governments from Canada,
France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, United Kingdom, the United States, Brazil, China, India, Mexico and South
Africa agreed in principle on the outline of a successor to the Kyoto Protocol. They envisage a global cap-and-trade
system that would apply to both industrialized nations and developing countries, and hoped that this would be in
place by 2009.[46] [47]
On 7 June 2007, leaders at the 33rd G8 summit agreed that the G8 nations would "aim to at least halve global CO2
emissions by 2050". The details enabling this to be achieved would be negotiated by environment ministers within
the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in a process that would also include the major
emerging economies.[48]
A round of climate change talks under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC) (Vienna Climate Change Talks 2007) concluded in 31 August 2007 with agreement on key
elements for an effective international response to climate change.[49]
A key feature of the talks was a United Nations report that showed how efficient energy use could yield significant
cuts in emissions at low cost.
The talks were meant to set the stage for a major international meeting to be held in Nusa Dua, Bali, which started on
3 December 2007.[50]
The Conference was held in December 2008 in Poznań, Poland. One of the main topics on this meeting was the
discussion of a possible implementation of avoided deforestation also known as Reducing emissions from
deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) into the future Kyoto Protocol.[51]
After the lack of progress leading to a binding commitment or an extension of the Kyoto commitment period in
climate talks at COP 15 in Copenhagen, Denmark in 2009, there are several further rounds of negotiation COP 16 in
Cancun, Mexico in 2010, South Africa in 2011 (COP 17), and in either Qatar or South Korea in 2012 (COP 18).
Because any treaty change will require the ratification of the text by various countries' legislatures before the end of
the commitment period Dec 31, 2012, it is likely that agreements in South Africa or South Korea/Qatar will be too
late to prevent a gap between the commitment periods.[52]
Kyoto Protocol 13

See also
• Asia Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate
• Business action on climate change
• Carbon emission trading
• Carbon finance
• Environmental agreements
• Environmental tariff
• List of climate change initiatives
• Low-carbon economy
• Montreal Protocol
• Politics of global warming
• World People's Conference on Climate Change

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Kyoto Protocol 15

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Further reading
• Depledge, J. (August 1999/August 2000). "Tracing the Origins of the Kyoto Protocol: An Article-by-Article
Textual History" (http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/tp/tp0200.pdf). UNFCCC Technical paper. Retrieved
2009-05-20.
• Ekardt, F./von Hövel, A.: Distributive Justice, Competitiveness, and Transnational Climate Protection. In:
Carbon & Climate Law Review, Vol. 3., 2009, p. 102–114.
• Kogan, Lawrence A. (June 2002). "The U.S. Response to the Kyoto Protocol – A Realistic Alternative?" (http://
blogs.shu.edu/projects/diplomacy/archives/5_kogan.pdf). The Whitehead Journal of Diplomacy and
International Relations, Volume III, Number 2. Retrieved 2001-10-20.
Kyoto Protocol 16

Economics
• Weyant, J.P. (ed) (May 1999). "The Costs of the Kyoto Protocol: A Multi-Model Evaluation" (http://emf.
stanford.edu/publications/the_costs_of_the_kyoto_protocol_a_multimodel_evaluation/). Energy Journal
(Special issue). Retrieved 2009-08-08. From this issue:
• Manne, A.S. and R. Richels. The Kyoto Protocol: A Cost-Effective Strategy for Meeting Environmental
Objectives? (http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/38/53/1923159.pdf). Retrieved 2009-08-08.
• Nordhaus, W.D. and J.G. Boyer. Requiem for Kyoto: An Economic Analysis of the Kyoto Protocol (http://
www.econ.yale.edu/~nordhaus/homepage/Kyoto.pdf). Retrieved 2009-08-08.

External links
• Full text of the Kyoto Protocol (HTML version) (http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/kpeng.html), (PDF
version) (http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/kpeng.pdf) (Alternate HTML version) (http://kyoto.
internationalnetwork.com/)
• Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change at Law-Ref.org (http://law-ref.
org/KYOTO/index.html) – fully indexed and crosslinked with other documents
• List of countries who have ratified, accepted, approved, or accessed the Kyoto Protocol (http://unfccc.int/files/
essential_background/kyoto_protocol/application/pdf/kpstats.pdf)
• The layman's guide to the Kyoto Protocol (http://mindprod.com/environment/kyoto.html)
• 2008 [[Cap and trade (http://lieberman.senate.gov/documents/amendment.pdf)] Bill in the U.S. Senate]
• The case against carbon trading by The Rising Tide Environmentalist Group (http://risingtide.org.uk/book/
print/101)
• Text of the Protocol (http://www.worldinbalance.net/intagreements/1997-kyotoprotocol.php) at the Center for
a World in Balance
• Kyoto: On Target? - Google Docs (https://spreadsheets.google.com/
ccc?key=0AmCeWwNKr6FmdGZLWGotWGNfcUtYWmkyalJIb21vbnc&hl=en<br ></a>#gid=0)
Article Sources and Contributors 17

Article Sources and Contributors

Kyoto Protocol  Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?oldid=400209365  Contributors: 0zymandias, 101090ABC, 159753, 1dragon, 2over0, A-giau, A. Parrot, A3r0, A8UDI, ABF, ADM,
AOL account, Aaronantrim, Abc518, Ablative, Academic Challenger, Acastanares, Acegikmo1, Acterbahnmeister, Acu8509, Adamatkin, Adambro, Adashiel, Adballer30, Addihockey10,
Adjoas, Admn404, AdnanSa, Aemurphy, Aerotheque, Aewheeless, Agentbla, Agentscott00, Ahoerstemeier, Aitias, Aknorals, Alaexis, Alai, Alan Liefting, Alan McBeth, Alansohn, Alasdair,
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