A M O N T H L Y P O L L C O M P I L A T I O N

Volume 7, Issue 5 • May 2011

The Military and Memorial Day

Even before the Navy SEALs’ raid on Osama bin Laden’s hiding place in Pakistan, the military was the most highly
ranked institution in American life. Three-quarters in Gallup’s June 2010 poll said they had a great deal or quite a lot of
confidence in it. Most Americans gave the military the lion’s share of the credit for the mission.
A new poll from the 100
Pew Research Center
Confidence in the military
tells us that a third of 90
the population has 76%
served or has had some- 80

one in their household 70 Great deal/

serve in the military or Quite a lot
of confidence
the reserves. As we 60
approach Memorial
50
Day, we look at views
about the military and 40
remember the service
Some
and sacrifice of men 30
and women in uniform.
20 18%
Q: Now I am going to
read you a list of insti- 10
Very little/None 4%
tutions in American
0
society. Please tell me
1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009
how much confidence
you, yourself, have in
each one . . . . Source: Gallup, latest that of June 2010.

80 76% Great deal/Quite a lot of confidence, 2010

70 Great Deal/Quite a lot of confidence
60
50
40
30
20 11%
10
0
The military

Small business

The police

The medical system

The presidency

U.S. Supreme Court

The public schools

Newspapers

Banks

Television news

Organized labor

HMOs

Big business

Congress
The criminal
justice system
The church/
organized religion

(continued on the next page)

Source: Gallup, latest that of June 2010.

1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 202.862.5800 www.aei.org

(continued from the previous page)

Q: How much credit, if any, do you think ____ should get for the killing of Osama bin Laden?
Great deal/Quite a lot of credit Not much/None
The U.S. military 97% 2%
The CIA and other U.S.
intelligence agencies 89 6
Barack Obama 76 21
George W. Bush 51 46
Source: Pew/Washington Post, May 2011.

Q: Have you or has anyone in your household . . . ? Q: Did you or that person serve . . . ?
Yes, served in the U.S. military Yes, serve in the military or military
or military reserves 34% reserves since September 11, 2001 26%
Yes, self 13% No 74
Yes, household 20 Note: Question asked of those responded that they or someone in
No 65 their household had served in the military = 34 percent of the sample.
Source: PSRA/Pew Research Center, April 2011.
Source: PSRA/Pew Research Center, April 2011.

Q: Do you think that we should increase our spending on national defense, keep it about the same, or cut it back?

Spending on national defense

60
53%
50
Keep same spending

40

Cut back 30%

30

20

10 Increase 13%

0
Nov 1978

Jul 1980

Mar 1982

Nov 1983

Jul 1985

Mar 1987

Nov 1988

Jul 1990

Mar 1992

Nov 1993

Jul 1985

Mar 1997

Nov 1998

Jul 2000

Mar 2002

Nov 2003

Jul 2005

Mar 2007

Nov 2008

Jul 2010

Note: In September 2000, question asked of registered voters.

Source: Chicago Council for Global Affairs, 1978 to October 1994; PSRA/Pew Research Center, latest that of February–March 2011.

Q: I’m going to read you some pairs of statements that will help us understand how you feel about a number of things.
As I read each pair, tell me whether the first statement or the second statement comes closer to your own views . . .
We should all be willing to fight for our country, whether it is right or wrong 45%
It’s acceptable to refuse to fight in a war you believe is morally wrong 48
Source: PSRA/Pew Research Center, February–March 2011.

1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 202 .862.5800 www.aei.org 2
 The Bin Laden Bump
After the killing of Osama bin Laden, President Obama’s ratings rose in a handful of polls. But the positive feelings about
the commander in chief did not transfer to views about the nation’s chief economic steward. President Obama’s ratings
on handling the economy are dismal.
Date Presidential Change from Rating on handling Change from
Pollster of poll approval rating previous poll the economy previous poll
CNN/ORC May 2 52% +1 42% +3
Pew/Wash Post May 2 56 +9 40 -2
CBS/NYT May 2–3 57 +11 34 -4
Quinnipiac May 2–3 52 +6 38 +1
Gallup Tracking May 2–4 52 +6 NA NA
Newsweek May 2–3 48 0 NA NA
NBC May 5–9 52 +3 37 -8
AP/GfK-Roper May 5–7 60 +7 52 +5
Ipsos/Reuters May 5–9 49 +3 NA NA

The Economy: It’s Personal

There is still very little good news in the public’s current assessment of the economy. In an April Gallup poll, 29 percent
described our situation as a depression and another 26 percent a recession. Forty percent in a recent Pew poll said the
recession had had a major effect on their personal situation and that their finances have not recovered. Fifty-one percent,
down barely from 54 percent a year ago, said that they or someone in their household had been out of job or looking for
work in the past year.
High gas prices and rising prices for everyday items are taking a toll on public attitudes. Forty-three percent in an ABC
News/Washington Post poll said the rise in gasoline prices had had a serious effect on them. In a Fox News poll, 34 percent
they had given up neces-
sities to afford gas.
60
The recession’s pain is Rating economic conditions, 2009–2011
producing some long-
term changes in public 50
thinking. In a recent Very poor 44%
Gallup poll, nonretirees
were less confident than 40
at any time in the past 38%
that they will have Somewhat
enough money to retire. 30 poor

And people are delaying

their retirement. The
20 18%
only good news: most
people say it is a good
time to buy a house. Very/Somewhat good
10
Q: How would you rate
the economic conditions
in the country today . . . ? 0
Jan 2009

Mar 2009

May 2009

Jul 2009

Sep 2009

Nov 2009

Jan 2010

Mar 2010

May 2010

Jul 2010

Sep 2010

Nov 2010

Jan 2011

Mar 2011

Source: CNN/Opinion
Research Corporation,
latest that of May 2011.

(continued on the next page)

1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 202 .862.5800 www.aei.org 3
(continued from the previous page)

Q: Right now, do you think . . . ? Q: Overall, which of the following best describes how the
The U.S. economy is growing 27% recession affected your own personal financial situation?
Slowing down 16 Mar. 2011
In a recession 26
It had a major effect, and your finances
In an economic depression 29
have not recovered 40%
Note: Of those in the poll’s highest income group ($75,000 or more It had a major effect, but your finances
a year), 29 percent said the United States is in a recession and 23
have mostly recovered 24
percent said it is in a depression.
Source: Gallup, April 2011. It didn’t have a major effect on your finances 34
Source: PSRA/Pew Research Center, March 2011.

Q: Over the past 12 months, has there been a time when you or someone in your household . . . ?
March 2011 March 2010
Has been a time in the past 12 months
when you or someone in your household
has been without a job and looking for work 51% 54%
Has not 48 45
Source: PSRA/Pew Research Center, latest that of March 2011.

Q: Which of the following national economic issues worries you most?

March 2011 March 2010
The job situation worries you most 34% 45%
Rising prices 28 17
The federal budget deficit 24 22
Problems in the financial and housing markets 10 11
Source: PSRA/Pew Research Center, latest that of March 2011.

Q: Have recent price increases in gasoline . . . ?

Yes, caused serious financial hardship
for you or others in your household 43%
Yes, not serious hardship 29
No 28
Source: ABC/Washington Post, April 2011.

Q: Have you ____ because of the price of gasoline?

Yes No
Cut down driving because of the price of gasoline 62% 37%
Become more supportive of domestic oil drilling 61 34
Considered changing your summer travel plans 49 50
Considered buying a more fuel-efficient car 47 52
Given up necessities to be able to afford gas 34 65
Note: Forty-two percent without a college degree said they have given up necessities to be able to afford gas. Twenty-five percent with a
college degree gave that response. Question asked of registered voters.
Source: Robbins (Rep.) and Shaw (Dem.) for Fox News, May 2011.

(continued on the next page)

1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 202 .862.5800 www.aei.org 4
(continued from the previous page)

Q: Now I’m going to read a few more pairs of statements. Q: When you retire, do you . . . ?
Again, just tell me whether the first statement or the Think you will have enough money
second statement comes closer to your own views . . . ? to live comfortably 42%
I’m generally satisfied with the way Do not think 53
things are going for me financially 47% Source: Gallup, April 2011.
I’m not very satisfied with my financial situation 51
Q: For people in general, do you think that . . . ?
I often don’t have enough money
to make ends meet 43% Now is a good time to buy a house 69%
Paying the bills is generally not a problem for me 53 Bad time 29
Note: Responses to the financial satisfaction question are the lowest Source: Gallup, April 2011.
they have been since the question was first asked in July 1994.
Source: PSRA/Pew Research Center, February–March, 2011.

Does President Obama Deserve Reelection?

Close readers of AEI’s Political Report have probably noticed that we have devoted very little attention thus far to polls on
the 2012 election. We don’t believe the polls tell us much at this point, and we are content to let the pundits dissect them.
But views on President Obama are hardening. We show below four pollsters’ questions on whether he deserves re-election.
We will be updating this chart in the months ahead.
Q: Considering how President Obama has performed so far, do you think he deserves to be re-elected, or would the
country probably be better off with someone else as president? (Fox)**
Q: Looking ahead to the 2012 election for President, do you feel that Barack Obama deserves to be reelected, or do
you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected? (Quinnipiac)
Q: Please tell me whether you think each of the following political office-holders deserves to be reelected, or not. How
about President Obama? (Gallup)
Q: Regardless of how you might vote, do you think President Barack Obama deserves to be reelected or deserves to be
voited out of office? (AP/GfK-Roper)
——Fox*—— ——Quinnipiac*—— ——Gallup—— ——AP-GfK——
Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No
Mar. 2010 - - 40% 48% 46% 50% - -
Apr. 2010 - - - - - - - -
May 2010 - - - - 48 48 - -
Jun. 2010 - - - - 48 49 - -
Jul. 2010 - - 40 48 - - - -
Aug. 2010 - - - - - - - -
Sep. 2010 38% 49% - - - - - -
Oct. 2010 - - - - 39 54 - -
Nov. 2010 - - 43 49 - - 39% 54%
Dec. 2010 35 53 - - - - - -
Jan. 2011 - - - - - - 50 45
Feb. 2011 - - - - - - - -
Mar. 2011 - - 41 50 - - 50 47
Apr. 2011 44 48 - - - - - -
May 2011^ - - 45 48 - - - -
May 2011+ - - 46 42 - - 53 43
Note: **Beginning in February 2011, Fox News began polling with Shaw (Dem.) and Robbins (Rep.). Earlier polls were conducted by Opinion
Dynamics. *Asked of registered voters; ^before Osama killed; +after Osama killed.

1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 202 .862.5800 www.aei.org 5
 Americans on the Move
Our colleague Michael Barone recently wrote that “geographically, our population is moving to the south and west, to the
point that the center of the nation's population has moved to Texas County, Missouri.” The center of population, as the
Census describes it, is the point on which the United States would balance if weights of identical size were placed on it so
that each weight represented the location of one person. In a 2008 Pew poll, 37 percent indicated that they had lived in their
local community for their entire life and another 20 percent had lived in the same state. Forty-two percent in a new Pew
survey report having a valid U.S. passport, up from 23 percent who gave that response in a 1989 CBS/New York Times poll.

1800
1850

1900
1950
2000
2010

Q: Have you lived in or near your local community your Q: For each description, please tell me if it applies
entire life, aside from the time you may have spent away to you or not.
in school or college, or have you lived in other places?
Have a valid U.S. passport
Q: Have you always lived in the same state, or have you 1989 23%
lived in different states? 2011 42
Lived your entire life in your local community 37% Source: For 1989, CBS/New York Times; for 2011,
Always lived in the same state 20 PSRA/Pew Research Center.
Different state 43
Source: PSRA/Pew Research Center, October 2008.

AEI POLITICAL REPORT CONTRIBUTORS

Karlyn Bowman, Senior Fellow; Fellow; Research Assistants: Jennifer Marsico, Editor;
Norman Ornstein, Resident Scholar; Andrew Rugg, Editor.
Michael Barone, Resident Fellow. Interns: Greg Brooks.

1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 202 .862.5800 www.aei.org 6