Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Hoffer, PhD
Research Paper on Amtrak 7-12 November Bill Lemmond
By the middle of the 19th century, public and private operators abandoned toll-collecting for and
maintenance on turnpikes all over the U.S. Pikes were effectively turned over for local use, as the railroads
took over the role of long distance transportation. A century later, road travel got its revenge, and air travel
helped. These modes benefited from public favor and effective lobbying. Among the results have been
infrastructure built almost entirely with public capital. Against this, railroads have been left literally to
To understand why Amtrak’s operating deficit, and even its very existence have been such matters
of controversy, one has to dig deeply, perhaps more than I am able at this late date. I suspect one thing that
has kept the arguments going is that at least one side argued from ideology, starting with a conclusion. As
a result, I don’t think the two sides have enough open discussion with each other. Shutting out the other
side, they each have turned more inward on their own views and have become increasingly intellectually
inbred.
Because lines have been drawn in the way above, there are prominent sources – the US
Department of Transportation, the Heritage Foundation – where I’ve sought in vain for evidence saying one
way or another as to whether the subsidies for the various modes of transportation are more benefit than
cost. Searches for “spillover benefits,” the “free rider” problem, “public good,” and “market failure” (one
This is not simply because professional communicators do not seem to know how to produce PDF
versions of paper documents in which it is possible to search the text electronically. Most sources are
simply much more able to discuss costs than benefits. I am left to weigh what I can find and develop a less
incomplete picture, by induction - noting weaknesses in arguments, noting what is not mentioned.
Maybe the only thing that keeps Amtrak both threatened and alive is that even the Heritage
foundation has given up on any effect beyond preaching to its choir – a readership it may privately despise.
I’ve read the argument of their Stuart M. Butler in favor of sale of state assets. (Heritage Lecture #148,
“Why Asset Sales are Good Public Policy.”) He begins respectfully enough, presenting both sides briefly,
Page 1 of 15
ECON 313 – Economics of Transportation VCU, fall 2007 Prof. George E. Hoffer, PhD
Research Paper on Amtrak 7-12 November Bill Lemmond
but then he plays to an expected suspicion of Congress among the readership. Congress is described as
having taken measures specifically intended to stop open inquiry into the value to the public of sale of
Butler cites some good examples, such as securitized federal debt instruments (including the
mortgage-backed securities too many people thought eliminated risk), detached single-family public
housing (in England) and power marketing (which I know is conducted privately by Dominion Virginia
Power).
However, his framing of the issue is obvious to me, because I’ve spent over 40 years as an
outsider, and I’ve been forced to see more sides to things than many people ever see. By sticking to un-
named public assets, which more fit the description of private, marketable goods, Butler describes in
general terms a market process, probably an auction. “With rival buyers in competition, the market price
for the asset will reach the point at which the bidder (or group of investors in the case of a public offering)
with the greatest degree of confidence offers a price reflecting the best likely future return.” (p. 3, Lecture
#148) This description of the more efficient free market process is only bate and switch when applied to
true public goods, those left to the public sector because of a history of market failure.
Butler avoids any chance that readers would think of “state assets” such as the armed forces or the
fire department, assets that were historically weak, or too limited in scope and/or scale, when only supplied
by the private sector. He does mention Amtrak as an asset suitable for sale.
The history of Amtrak is that all US railroads were given the opportunity to give up their passenger service
to Amtrak. They were even required to give Amtrak priority on their tracks. All the railroads jumped at
the chance. Passenger service was only a money-maker before US governments started subsidizing a
national hard-surface road network by $1 billion per year in the 1920s (Twentieth Century Sprawl :
Highways and the Reshaping of the American Landscape, Gutfreund, Owen D., p. 27). Then passenger
rail service was subsidized by freight rail service, which itself was losing ground. By the time Amtrak was
in the wings, regulated railroads, saddled with under-used long-distance passenger service, had gone
If any entity ever offers Amtrak a good, market price for part of its operation, the question is if the
prospective buyer is only trying to capture government subsidies. If confirmation can be had that the target
Page 2 of 15
ECON 313 – Economics of Transportation VCU, fall 2007 Prof. George E. Hoffer, PhD
Research Paper on Amtrak 7-12 November Bill Lemmond
operation can really turn a profit as a separate, private operation, and if government will continue to fund
the remaining Amtrak operations which meet demand for a public good, then Amtrak should take the
Public administration of assets and services suffers from some very real and some simply assumed
inefficiencies, yet it is the only choice in face of market failure. After denigrating public management,
Butler also argues for sale of public assets (including Amtrak and the US Postal Service by name) as a way
of broadening the base of private ownership – the number of people who own stock and the amount they
own. This is not the first time Butler starts with a universally acclaimed good idea. Wealth is even more
concentrated than income, and were it more widely held, more people would be able to weather tough times
and finance their own best financial moves. Wider wealth increases the scope of Adam Smith’s “invisible
hand.” When more people have a sense of ownership, we are less divided, in perception and objectively,
along class lines. And employees with a stake in their employer identify more with the success of the firm
However, employee stock ownership programs (ESOP) can increase risks for participants, if for
whatever reasons – inadequate financial education, restrictions on sale of assets or holdings in retirement
funds – the employees’ investments lack adequate diversification. This is not an argument against sale of
public assets, but it is a reason to make sure the employees’ corporate ownership is diversified.
Butler specifically refers to Amtrak as a target for sale to its employees, with expected increases in
efficiency, on the order of the result when Britain sold its National Freight Corporation.
[for sale]. If Britain’s National Freight Corporation experience is any guide to the potential,
transferring the Washington-Boston corridor to Amtrak workers at an attractive price could have
dramatic effects on productivity and the financial bottom line. Instead of privatization posing a
threat to Amtrak workers, it would then become an opportunity for workers as owners to gain
albatross that cannot be sold because of worker and rider opposition, it could become an efficient
I included the entire paragraph so the reader can experience the tone and see the argument as a
Page 3 of 15
ECON 313 – Economics of Transportation VCU, fall 2007 Prof. George E. Hoffer, PhD
Research Paper on Amtrak 7-12 November Bill Lemmond
whole. Can Butler be unfamiliar with the history of Amtrak? Again, private railroads eagerly abandoned
passenger service, even where economies of density overcame diseconomies of network scale and
Amtrak’s statutory role does not allow it to be profitable, any more than pollution controls add to
any bottom line that doesn’t include health care costs and lost productivity. Butler suggests adding
“covenants” to any sale, requiring the new owner to continue some services that operate at a loss.
Passenger rail service generally operates at a loss. If it didn’t, the private railroads would have held onto
some of it. Very limited commuter lines are generally also publicly owned, for the same reason. Selling
Amtrak to its employees could only be done at gunpoint. If any part of it had a market value that could be
captured in stock, some investor group would have lobbied Congress for a sale.
Passenger rail service is not the same as freight rail service, and a freight trucking operation is
even less comparable. Freight service has proven profitable, when allowed to compete on a level
regulatory playing field. The privatization of Britain’s National Freight was a remarkable success that has
GAO Report GAO-04-94, Appendix IV: Brief History of the Northeast Corridor and Northeast High-Speed
“The Railroad Revitalization and Regulatory Reform Act of 1976 (4R Act) formally established
the Northeast Corridor Improvement Project (NECIP). … [By] 1981, Amtrak was to have … dependable
… service between Boston and New York City (called the ‘north-end’ of the Northeast Corridor) in 3 hours
and 40 minutes, and between New York City and Washington, D.C., in 2 hours 40 minutes.” The Secretary
of Transportation was to learn if it were practical to reduce times to Boston-New York 3 hours and New
York-D.C. 2 hours 30 minutes. “The 4R Act authorized $1.75 billion … Congress appropriated about $1.5
GAO concurs that more time and money should have been spent planning, and that Amtrak
needed to present a comprehensive plan on which to base a cost-benefit analysis and any funding. They
also say that year-to-year funding, uncertain, historically fluctuating and often inadequate by a factor of ten,
discouraged thorough planning and project-length efficiency. “In January 1979, DOT … stated not only
Page 4 of 15
ECON 313 – Economics of Transportation VCU, fall 2007 Prof. George E. Hoffer, PhD
Research Paper on Amtrak 7-12 November Bill Lemmond
that the project had been inadequately planned, but also that another $750 million would be needed to
complete the project (for a total of $2.5 billion). Completion would be delayed until at least 1983. In May
1980, the Passenger Railroad Rebuilding Act of 1980 authorized” the above request, but “required FRA
[the Federal Railroad Administration] to transfer responsibility for the project to Amtrak by … 1985.”
I find it remarkable that once FRA oversight (as opposed to merely writing checks) was first seen
as desirable, then punished for bringing bad news, and at the time of this GAO report is once again seen as
By 1982, cost increases had eliminated items from the project budget, chiefly the electrification of
rail lines between Boston and New Haven [This was not completed until the 1990s.]. This put the trip time
goals out of reach. Electrical work went through so many changes that about $100 million beyond planned
expenses was needed, mostly for flag men on streets to maintain road and rail traffic safety. Even after the
electrification from Boston to New York was completed, at the time of the GAO report, the contractor was
In 1985, the FRA treated the NECIP as completed, as far as their responsibilities. They were no
longer to audit progress and “additional funding for remaining major work elements was not envisioned.”
[NECIP did achieve the original trip time goals, but focused mostly on the “south-end” lines] “because of
significant deterioration … from years of deferred maintenance and neglect [sic; I don’t think the neglect
was deferred. J]. In November 1986, DOT reported that when Congress authorized and funded NECIP in
1976, the Northeast Corridor had literally begun to disintegrate at both its … ends.” (Text version, p. 52)
“Between 1985 and 1990, funding for NECIP … averaged about $21 million per year, compared
with about $250 million … 1967 through 1984.” The GAO hints at some public good effect. “As a result
of efforts by various organizations in the mid- and late 1980s, including the Coalition of Northeast
Governors, interest again rose in high-speed passenger rail service between New York City and Boston,
because of its potential to mitigate increasing highway and air congestion, as well as air pollution levels.”
(GAO, p 53) The 1992 Amtrak Authorization and Development Act authorized $470 million for FY 1193
and 1994 (only $429 appropriated). Amtrak opened the Northeast High-Speed Rail Improvement Project
(NHSRIP), and in 1994, FRA issued the master plan, with three milestones: “(1) initiate electrified train
service between Boston and New York City [finally connect Boston and New Haven], (2) initiate 3-hour
Page 5 of 15
ECON 313 – Economics of Transportation VCU, fall 2007 Prof. George E. Hoffer, PhD
Research Paper on Amtrak 7-12 November Bill Lemmond
train service between these cities, and (3) complete the infrastructure improvements designed to enhance
track capacity and extend the useful life of existing assets.” (GAO, 53)
Problems have caused delays and so far, the 3-hour goal for New York- Boston has not been
reached. Uncertain year-to-year funding by Congress is said to have discouraged project-length planning
and ironically led to more cost overruns. This has made coordination with other stakeholders (governments
along the route, commuter lines) less than necessary, especially regarding parts of the route which are not
owned by Amtrak. Reworking curves for higher speeds have been delayed. While GAO doesn’t say this, I
suspect this is made difficult by the density of development along the route and the difficulty in changing
right-of-way.
“High-speed rail service was initiated in January 2000 [only achieving 3 hours, 20 minutes, New
York-Boston, thanks to delayed infrastructure improvements], even though the electrification work was not
substantially completed until July [almost 3 years late].” (GAO, 54) Through March 2003 spending on the
NHSRIP [which I now note is a rather unfortunate acronym] was “about $2.6 billion by Amtrak and an
additional $625 million by commuter rail agencies and state governments.” (GAO, 54)
Wharton says Amtrak was ‘created in 1970 by the Rail Passenger Service Act as a for-profit
entity.” (Wharton, 1) Did anyone really believe this was possible? As mentioned, as soon as private
railroads were allowed, they threw all their passenger service to Amtrak as the hottest of potatoes. “Since
its inception, … [Amtrak] has never made money, due in part, say some, to its contradictory missions: It
has been expected t wean itself off federal aid while continuing to provide a national service that includes
costly long-distance routes. (Wharton, 1) Amtrak Reform Council (ARC) senior financial analyst Michael
Mates says “18 [of Amtrak’s] trains represent just about 18% of total ridership and … 70% of the cost [of
“In 1996 Amtrak’s revenues were $1.6 billion but expenses stood at $2.3 billion … By fiscal
2001, un-audited [Caution!] figures show that Amtrak’s loss increased to more than $1 billion.” In
February 2002, the ARC suggested separating infrastructure and operations. This would put Amtrak
operations on a more equal footing with air and road travel, where infrastructure is provided with public
capital. Please note below two charts from DOT, Bureau of Transportation Statistics. Neither chart seems
Page 6 of 15
ECON 313 – Economics of Transportation VCU, fall 2007 Prof. George E. Hoffer, PhD
Research Paper on Amtrak 7-12 November Bill Lemmond
W. Bruce Allen, professor of business and public policy, regional science, and transportation at
Wharton, said of Amtrak in the beginning “If a freight company signed on, it could abandon all passenger
services Amtrak wouldn’t operate. Sure, it had to provide track priorities, but it seemed to be a fairly good
exchange.” Sticking Amtrak with operations all others fled, while expecting Amtrak to make a profit can’t
have been simply naïve on such a grand scale. It had to be dishonest “it was dealing with political
constituencies who would not let it manage the system the way a business manager could. Unions
restricted the amount of time a person could work. Then there were equipment problems, and freight
companies didn’t always maintain tracks to passenger standards. Sometimes they just paid the penalty for
not giving the passenger trains priority, and let the freight trains go first if it made economic sense.” (Allen
in Wharton, 2)
Some of the best the proud Wharton School of Business offered leaves too much out. I wonder if
they were willing to sacrifice the quality of their article simply to make another college at U. Penn look
Pennsylvania’s School of Engineering and Applied Science believes that privatizing the rail system and
breaking it up isn’t a good idea. ‘There are two questions to ask,’ he says. ‘The first is: Does our country
need railroads? And the second is: Should it be Amtrak, or another organization?’” (Wharton, 3)
There’s nothing wrong with the questions, and the author(s) of the Wharton article include enough
evidence that the answers aren’t obvious enough to the voters or perhaps even our representatives.
“’The answer to question one is a vehement yes. There’s no way to imagine a country like the
U.S. without railroads. [Sadly, it’s all too obvious many have found a way to such imagining. Railroads
need more than “Argument weak here – thump pulpit loudly.” “Distances over 500 miles” is not
something that jumps out at the layperson, and that’s only for freight.] To answer the second question – if
we agree that we need railroads – it’s only rational to have the involvement of government.’” [Thanks to
capital subsidies for other transportation modes, demand and cost comparisons are distorted beyond the
ability of most people to see them clearly.] The Wharton article does add “The fact that demand for
Amtrak services has gone up over the years seems to support Vuchic’s point. In 1971, a year after Amtrak
Page 7 of 15
ECON 313 – Economics of Transportation VCU, fall 2007 Prof. George E. Hoffer, PhD
Research Paper on Amtrak 7-12 November Bill Lemmond
began operations, it transported 1.2 million people a month. By 1999, that figure had risen 45% to 1.8
million. Annual numbers tell a similar story. Amtrak ridership went from 13.7 million in 1972 to 23.5
million in 2001.
“Vuchic argues that if the U.S. accepts gasoline and ticket taxes, why should it not do something
for rail? ‘We subsidize certain industries because we think they are essential services and that they will
have a multiplier effect on the economy. [Subsidies should be limited to industries which fit the foregoing
description but also would produce considerably less than is needed for unsubsidized productivity to
increase beyond the subsidy total.] If we agree on that, there is no need to hide subsidies on other transport
modes. We subsidize other modes, such as airlines and highways, but we don’t call them subsidies.’”
(Wharton, 3)
If the U.S. separates infrastructure from Amtrak’s operating costs, and funds it through public
funds, we need to avoid mistakes made in Britain. ARC analyst Mates says The British had contracts that
made track fees largely fixed. So operators thought to themselves, ‘What we have to do to be profitable is
to run more trains.’ But there was no time or money to fix the tracks. In the 1970s and 1980s, the physical
infrastructure was neglected. The private entities could not get enough money to support infrastructure
improvements. But the operators are making money. Ridership has shot up to levels not seen since the
Mates and the ARC continue. “you don’t have to privatize everything. Sleeper and meal services
are probably good candidates for privatizing. I would spin off the Northeast Corridor infrastructure into a
new entity. Amtrak or any other operator could run over it. Congress could decide whether all costs
should get passed to users or whether there should be some subsidies.” (Wharton, 3) Subsidies need to be
For long-haul trains, especially the 18 routes which cost the most, Mates suggests turning them
into high-end integrated vacation experiences, similar to how ocean liners have shifted from transportation
to cruises. “Take overnight and full-service dining cars, franchise them out, and make it a luxury
experience – a package deal.” The article “Century Gone” pointed out that in the face of growing
competition from the automobile and buses, luxury express trains gained in ridership and commanded
Page 8 of 15
ECON 313 – Economics of Transportation VCU, fall 2007 Prof. George E. Hoffer, PhD
Research Paper on Amtrak 7-12 November Bill Lemmond
The U.S. is the only developed country to lower the speed of its passenger trains. Amtrak is still
on a long, slow way back. Acela train-sets were not in place at the writing of the Wharton article. There
are hopes for annual additions of $300 million in revenue, with $180 million for Amtrak’s bottom line and
2 million passengers who would otherwise have traveled some other way than by train. In 2001, Amtrak
Allen warns of more infrastructure demands. “Freight railroads in the U.S. don’t really have
excess capacity. If you want high speed trains, who’s going to build the tracks? ARC says let’s get the
states and regions involved.” The private sector can supply contractors, but it’s passenger rail, so
“Mates cautions ‘European cities have more compact land areas, and different population density.
The area they’re serving is very different. You can’t really compare the two. If a train’s going faster than
110 miles an hour, you have to eliminate grade crossings, and there are lots of these in the Midwest. If
you’re stopping all the time, you can’t accelerate and decelerate the way you need to.’” (Wharton, 4)
Page 9 of 15
ECON 313 – Economics of Transportation VCU, fall 2007 Prof. George E. Hoffer, PhD
Research Paper on Amtrak 7-12 November Bill Lemmond
The following figures are from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, on the web site of the US
Department of Transportation.
I wish I knew how they concluded that subsidies for highway travel were not only negative, but
massively so. If this were true, how is it we have one bridge collapsed, and I’ve been hearing for years that
thousands of Depression Era bridges are at the end of their service life?
DOT’s BTS also has Excel spreadsheets, which I am including on a CD, should you have more
use for them than I did. They are a wealth of information on variable costs. Most recent figures for total
passengers carried in a year by rail (about 25 million) and air (over 650 million) show that passenger rail is
relatively minor.
It’s this level of apparent unreality that was most discouraging. Difficulty in finding comparisons
of benefits across modes was fruitless. Here, the comparison of costs is bizarre. Below are two charts from
Twentieth Century Sprawl : Highways and the Reshaping of the American Landscape by Owen D.
Gutfreund. (It’s a book I think you’d enjoy and may want to reference, if only for the League of American
Wheelmen (19th century bicyclists) whose Good Roads campaign was joined by the railroads in the belief
Page 10 of 15
ECON 313 – Economics of Transportation VCU, fall 2007 Prof. George E. Hoffer, PhD
Research Paper on Amtrak 7-12 November Bill Lemmond
that the chief effect of good roads would be to increase the geographic reach of their stations. Included on
the accompanying CD is a file, called HighwaySubsidies.doc, which is composed of excerpts from the
book.)
I do find it odd that the same author says overall funding for highways was
over $1.5 billion per year in the 1920s. I wonder why he doesn’t also chart state and
local funds.
Page 11 of 15
ECON 313 – Economics of Transportation VCU, fall 2007 Prof. George E. Hoffer, PhD
Research Paper on Amtrak 7-12 November Bill Lemmond
Page 12 of 15
ECON 313 – Economics of Transportation VCU, fall 2007 Prof. George E. Hoffer, PhD
Research Paper on Amtrak 7-12 November Bill Lemmond
“Figure 2: Net Federal Subsidies per Thousand Passenger-Miles by Mode: FY 1990 – 2002”
I suspect the only subsidies included are for day-to-day operations, and that public capital for infrastructure
is left out, for air and highway modes, certainly. I searched in vain for complete, side-by-side comparisons
of fixed cost subsidies.
In the 1920s, all levels of US governments were subsidizing construction of paved roads an
average $1 billion per year, in dollars of the time. Adjusted for inflation, this dwarfs appropriations for
infrastructure on Amtrak’s Northeast Corridor, which barely rose above $250 million (in 1980s and 1990s
dollars) some years. The more I read, the more I think, the more I appreciate JayEtta Hecker (also quoted
extensively in GAO report GAO-04-94), Director, Physical Infrastructure Issues. If the rest decided to
relegate advocating public investment in railroad infrastructure as “women’s work,” then the rest really are,
as I suspect, nothing more than a bunch of rhymes-with-hicks. Can you tell I want to pop someone for
doing such a job at taxpayer expense – and palming it off as educational? Thank you for not being like
that.
Page 13 of 15
ECON 313 – Economics of Transportation VCU, fall 2007 Prof. George E. Hoffer, PhD
Research Paper on Amtrak 7-12 November Bill Lemmond
“Amtrak is a waste of government [Name a government resource (such as “cheese”).]! Amtrak should be
made to sell its [Name something on which trains run (such as “track” or “not-on-time”).] as well as the
[Name an article of clothing.] off their [Name a body part which can be politely mentioned around mild-
mannered women and small children.] to [Name some entity with amazing amounts of money (such as
“Microsoft”).]. No one [Name a positive attribute adjective (such as “important,” “cool” or “sober”).] rides
Amtrak anymore. … What? [Name a majorly scary action movie star (such as “Chuck Norris” or
“Ahhnold”)] still rides Amtrak? Oh [Name an expletive, if not in delicate mixed company.]! I’m so
[Name a really bad end, preferably worse than death, involving graphic, vengeful violence (such as
“Amtrak is a fine use of government [Name some government resource different from the one above (such
as “red tape”).]. Passenger rail has been a vital part of the lives of American [Name a group of
marginalized Americans (such as “Deadheads,” “homeless,” or “college students”).] since [Name a period
in US history (such as “the Reformation”).]. We should unite in supporting Amtrak in its role as the [Name
a superlative adjective (such as “oldest,” “loudest,” “poorest,” or “saddest”).] mode of transportation for
[Name a synonym for traveling (such as “commuting” or “fleeing”).] between America’s [Name a
synonym for “cities”.]. And we’re going to tell [action movie star named above] on you.
Page 14 of 15
ECON 313 – Economics of Transportation VCU, fall 2007 Prof. George E. Hoffer, PhD
Research Paper on Amtrak 7-12 November Bill Lemmond
Works Cited
Butler, Stuart M. “Why Asset Sales Are Good Public Policy – heritage lecture #148”
http://www.heritage.org/Research/GovernmentReform/HL148.cfm
Government Accounting Office. Report GAO-04-94, Appendix IV: Brief History of the Northeast
Gutfreund, Owen D. Twentieth Century Sprawl : Highways and the Reshaping of the American Landscape
(electronic copy, by way of FCU Library free subscription electronic book service, the name of which
slips my mind.)
http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article.cfm?articleid=538#
Page 15 of 15