Week IV

Random Variables and Probability Distributions

Text Ref: MBB Ch4,pp163-172, Ch5, pp183-204

1 Discrete probability distributions x 1 2 3 4 5 6

P(X = x) 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6
Tossing a coin
A balanced coin is tossed three times. Let X be the total Note: This is a discrete probability distribution.
number of heads. Then:
• Event TTT, ⇒ event X = 0 Distribution functions
Whenever possible we try to write probability
• Event HTT, THT, TTH, ⇒ event X = 1 distributions in the form of mathematical formulae
which enable us to calculate the probabilities associated
• Event HHT, HTH, THH, ⇒ event X = 2
with each value of the random variable. In the above
• Event HHH, ⇒ event X = 3 example we can write the probability distribution as:

The possible values that X may take are 0, 1, 2 and 3. We 1

call X a random variable.
Random variable
Definition
A random variable is a function that associates a real
number with each point in the sample space. It is called
discrete if its possible values are countable and is called
continuous if its values are continuous.
In most practical problems, continuous random
variables represent measured data, such as heights,
weights, temperatures, distances etc. whereas discrete
random variables represent countable data, such as:
• the no. of defectives in a sample of n items
• the no. of computers in a computer laboratory
• the no. of highway fatalities per year in a given
state.
• the no of admissions to a hospital intensive care
unit
We first discuss some discrete random variables.
Continuous random variables will be studied next.
Probability Distribution
This is a correspondence which assigns probabilities to
the values of a random variable.
Example 1. Consider rolling a balanced die. Let X =
value on the upper side. Then the probability
distribution, P(X = x) can be written as:
1 Each item in the list is matched to the other list in the same order
P(X = x) = , x = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 (1)
6
where P(X = 1) is the probability of getting 1, P(X = 2)
is the probability of getting 2, etc.
Distribution constraints
For a discrete random variable X, the probability
distribution should satisfy the following conditions:
1. Each probability value should be between 0 and 1
(can equal 0 or 1).
2. The sum of all the probability values should equal
1.
Two most important characteristics of a random
variable X are its expected value (or mean), denoted by
E[X] or µ, and its variance, denoted by Var(X) or σ2.
The expected value is a measure of the location of the
distribution of X, while the variance is a measure of its
spread. When ever probability distributions are
discussed we make reference to the population.
Mean (Expected value) of a Discrete Probability
Distribution
Given a discrete random variable X with values
x1 , x2 , . . . , xn that occur with probabilities
p(x1 ), p(x2 ), . . . , p(xn ) respectively 1 , then Expected
Value of X, E(X) is defined as:
∑
n
E[X] = µ = xi p(xi ) (2)
i=1

1
Random Variables and Probability Distributions 300700 Statistical Decision Making

Note that if∑p(xi ) is computed as 3. What is the probability that a guest stays 5 nights or
n
count(xi )/ i=1 count(xi ) then: more?

∑
n
x count(xi ) ∑ si m 4. Calculate the mean (µ) and standard deviation (σ)
E[X] = ∑ni = (3) of the number of nights for which guest stay.
i=1 i=1 count(xi ) i=1
m

where si is a sample and m is the number of samples. 2 Defined discrete probability

This is the equation for computing the mean from a
sample given in previous lectures. distributions
Two Discrete Probability Distributions
Variance of a Discrete Probability Distribution
There are several different types of popular
The variance of a random variable Var(X) is defined as
2 distributions that can be used when the numerical data
the expected value of (X − µ) and hence given by: is of a discrete nature. We will look at two of them.

2
∑
n
2 • Binomial distribution
Var(X) = σ2 = E[(X − µ) ] = (xi − µ) p(xi ) (4)
i=1 • Poisson distribution
If we know the expected value of X and the expected
value of X2 , we can compute the variance using the The Binomial distribution
computational formula: Binomial Distribution
σ2 = E[X2 ] − E[X]2 (5) Binomial experiment
∑n A binomial experiment is one that possesses the
where µ = E[X] and E[X2 ] = i=1 x2i p(xi ). following properties.

Compute the mean and standard deviation • The experiment consists of n trials

Problem 2. Consider the following probability • Each trial results in one of two outcomes, denoted
distribution: by a success or a failure.
• The probability of a success on a single trial is
x 0 1 2 3 4
equal to p and the probability of a failure is
P(X = x) 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1
q = 1 − p. Also p remains constant from one trial
to the next.
1. Check if it is a valid probability distribution
• The trials are independent, i.e., the outcome of
2. Find the mean and standard deviation of the
one trial does not influence the outcome of any
probability distribution.
other trial

Expected stay at a resort • The experimenter is interested in x, the number

of successes observed during the n trials.
Problem 3. A Barrier Reef resort is interested in the
length of stay of its guests. The following is the probability
distribution of the number of nights that guests stay Binomial examples
(denoted by X). Consider the following examples:

x 2 3 4 5 7 9 • Flip a coin 10 times. Let X be the number of

P(X = x) 0.05 0.25 0.35 0.20 0.10 ? heads obtained.
• A worn machine tool produces 1% defective
1. If these are the only numbers of nights for which parts. Let X be the number of defective parts in
guests stay,what is the probability that a guest will the next 25 parts produced.
stay 9 nights?
In each of these experiments:
2. What is the probability that a guest stays 5 nights or
less? • we have a series of trials

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300700 Statistical Decision Making
• the outcome from each trial either meets the
criterion defined by X, or it does not
• each trial is independent, i.e., the outcome from
one trial has no effect on the outcome to be
obtained from another trial.
Binomial experiment
Example 4. Consider tossing a fair coin 5 times and
observing the number of Heads appearing (successes).
Here the random variable X is the number of Heads.
Hence it has the values 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.
Since it is a fair coin,
p = P(success) = P(getting a Head) = 1/2
Binomial distribution equation
The probability of getting x successful outcomes from
the n trials, can be calculated from the binomial
distribution as:
n!
n−x
P(X = x) = px (1 − p) , x = 0, 1, . . . , n
x!(n − x)!
(6)
Mean and variance
In the Binomial distribution the mean of X, E[X] = np
and the variance of X, Var(X) = np(1 − p).
Binomial probabilities
Problem 5. If the random variable X has a Binomial
distribution with n = 6, p = 0.3, find P(X = 2) and
P(X ≤ 3).
Check the above solutions using Binomial tables in the
textbook (Table 1, pg 680)
Getting a job
Problem 6. A student majoring in science at a certain
university is trying to decide on the number of firms to
which she should apply for a job. Given her work
experience, academic results etc., she has been told by an
employment agent that she can expect to receive a job
offer from 75% of the firms to which she applies. Due to
time constraints, the student applied to 5 firms only.
Assuming the employment agent’s estimate is correct, find
the probability that the student receives:
1. no offers
2. 2 offers
3. either 2 or 3 offers (inclusive)
Random Variables and Probability Distributions
Defective computers
Problem 7. The defective rate of new computers is 5%.
Find the probability that in a batch of 10 computers, one is
defective.
The Poisson distribution
Poisson random variables
Poisson experiment
This is an experiment yielding the number of
occurrences of a certain event during a given time
interval or in a specified region.
Occurences of the event are independent and random.
Examples:
• the no. of telephone calls per hour received by an
office;
• the no. of accidents per year on a highway;
• the no. of typing errors per page.
• the no. of hits on a website,
• the no of red cells in 1ml of blood
Poisson distribution
Let X be the number of occurrences in a Poisson
experiment. Then X is called a Poisson random variable
with probability distribution function given by:
e−µ µx
P(X = x) = x = 0, 1, 2, . . . (7)
x!
where µ is the average number of occurrences in a given
time interval, x is the number of occurrences in the
given time interval.
Mean and variance
If X follows a Poisson distribution, the mean of X,
E[X] = µ, and the variance of X, Var(X) = µ.
Web site popularity
Problem 8. Hits on a personal Website occur randomly
and independently with an average of 5 hits per week.
1. Find the probability that the site gets 8 hits per week.
2. Find the probability that the site gets more than 2
hits in two weeks.
Check the above solutions using Poisson tables in the
textbook (Table 2, pg 686)
3

New babies
Problem 9. A hospital averages 10 births per month.
1. What is the probability that in a given month;
(a) exactly 5 births will occur?
(b) less than 3 births will occur?
(c) at least 2 births will occur?
2. What is the probability that in any given week, 3
births will occur?
Summary
• A discrete random variable exists in a countable
sample space.
• The probability distribution shows the likelihood
of each event in the sample space.
300700 Statistical Decision Making
• The mean and variance of a random variable can
be computed from its distribution.
• A Binomial random variable has a sample space of
True or False.
• The Binomial distribution shows the probability
of sampling n True events.
• A Poisson random variable exists in the natual
number space {0, 1, 2, . . .}
• The Poisson distribution shows the probability of
an event occurring n times.
Next Week
The Normal Distribution and approximations to the
Normal
Text Ref: MBB Ch 6, pp219-246