Professional Documents
Culture Documents
(session 1,2)
1
Outline
; The Planning Process
; The Nature of Aggregate Planning
; Aggregate Planning Strategies
; Capacity Options
; Demand Options
; Mixing Options to Develop a Plan
; Methods for Aggregate Planning
; Graphical Methods
; Mathematical Approaches
; Comparison of Aggregate Planning Method
2
Outline – Continued
; Aggregate Planning in Services
; Restaurants
; Hospitals
; National Chains of Small Service
Firms
; Miscellaneous Services
; Airline Industry
; Yield Management
3
Aggregate Planning
Determine the quantity and timing of
production for the immediate future
; Objective is to minimize cost over the
planning period by adjusting
; Production rates
; Labor levels
; Inventory levels
; Overtime work
; Subcontracting rates
; Other controllable variables
4
Aggregate Planning
Required for aggregate planning
Top
executives Intermediate-range plans
(3 to 18 months)
Sales planning
Production planning and budgeting
Operations Setting employment, inventory,
managers subcontracting levels
Analyzing operating plans
Short-range plans
(up to 3 months)
Job assignments
Operations Ordering
managers, Job scheduling
supervisors, Dispatching
foremen Overtime
Part-time help
Quarter 1
Jan Feb Mar
150,000 120,000 110,000
Quarter 2
Apr May Jun
100,000 130,000 150,000
Quarter 3
Jul Aug Sep
180,000 150,000 140,000
7
Aggregate Planning
8
Aggregate Planning
9
Aggregate Planning
(Required Inputs to the Production
Planning System)
Competitors’ Raw material Market
behavior availability demand External
to firm
External Planning Economic
capacity for conditions
production
13
Capacity Options
3. Varying production rate through
overtime or idle time
; Allows constant workforce
; May be difficult to meet large
increases in demand
; Overtime can be costly and may
drive down productivity
; Absorbing idle time may be
difficult
14
Capacity Options
4. Subcontracting
; Temporary measure during
periods of peak demand
; May be costly
; Assuring quality and timely
delivery may be difficult
; Exposes your customers to a
possible competitor
15
Capacity Options
16
Demand Options
6. Influencing demand
; Use advertising or promotion
to increase demand in low
periods
; Attempt to shift
demand to slow
periods
; May not be
sufficient to
balance demand
and capacity
17
Demand Options
18
Demand Options
8. Counter seasonal product and
service mixing
; Develop a product mix of
counterseasonal items
; May lead to products or services
outside the company’s areas of
expertise
19
Methods for Aggregate
Planning
; A mixed strategy may be the best
way to achieve minimum costs
; There are many possible mixed
strategies
; Finding the optimal plan is not
always possible
20
Mixing Options to
Develop an aggregate Plan
; Chase strategy
; Match output rates to demand
forecast for each period
; Vary workforce levels or vary
production rate
; Favored by many service
organizations
21
Mixing Options to
Develop a Plan
; Level strategy
; Daily production is uniform
; Use inventory or idle time as buffer
; Stable production leads to better
quality and productivity
; Some combination of capacity
options, a mixed strategy, might be
the best solution
22
Graphical Methods
; Popular techniques
24
Example 1
ABC a manufacturer of roofing tiles has
developed monthly Forecasts for roofing tiles
and presented the period January-June in the
table 1.
Feb 700 18 39
Mar 800 21 38
Apr 1,200 21 57
May 1,500 22 68
June 1,100 20 55
6,200 124
26
Average Total expected demand
requirement = Number of production days
6,200
= = 50 units per day
124
Forecast demand
Production rate per working day
70 –
Level production using average
monthly forecast demand
60 –
50 –
40 –
30 –
0 –
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June = Month
Ð Ð Ð Ð Ð Ð
22 18 21 21 22 20 = Number of
Figure 1 working days
27
Possible Strategy 1
Constant Workforce
Cost Information
Inventory carrying cost $ 5 per unit per month
Subcontracting cost per unit $10 per unit
Average pay rate $ 5 per hour ($40 per day)
$ 7 per hour
Overtime pay rate
(above 8 hours per day)
Labor-hours to produce a unit 1.6 hours per unit
Cost of increasing daily production rate $300 per unit
(hiring and training)
Cost of decreasing daily production rate $600 per unit
(layoffs)
Table 2
28
Possible Strategy 1
Monthly
Cost Information
Production at Demand Inventory Ending
Month carry
Inventory 50 Units
cost per Day Forecast $ 5Change
per unit per Inventory
month
Jan
Subcontracting 1,100
cost per unit 900 $10 +200
per unit 200
Feb pay rate 900
Average 700 +200
$ 5 per 400
hour ($40 per day)
Mar 1,050 800 +250
$ 7 per hour 650
Overtime pay rate
(above 8 hours per day)
Apr 1,050 1,200 -150 500
Labor-hours to produce a unit 1.6 hours per unit
May 1,100 1,500 -400 100
Cost of increasing daily production rate $300 per unit
June 1,000
(hiring and training)
1,100 -100 0
Cost of decreasing daily production rate $600 per unit 1,850
(layoffs)
Total units of inventory carried over from one t workforce
Table 13.3 monthnto c
theo n s
nexttan = 1,850 units
–
Pl a 1
Workforce required to produce 50 units per day = 10 workers
29
Possible Strategy 1
Monthly
Costs
Cost Information
Production at Demand Calculations
Inventory Ending
Month carry
Inventory
Inventory 50 Units
cost per Day $9,250
carrying Forecast $ 5Change
perunits
(= 1,850 unit per Inventory
month
carried x $5
Jan
Subcontracting 1,100
cost per unit 900 per$10unit)
per unit
+200 200
Regular-time
Feb pay rate
Average labor
900 49,600
700 (= 10
$ 5 workers
+200
per x $40per
hour ($40 per
400day)
Mar 1,050 800 day x+250
124 days) 650
$ 7 per hour
Overtime pay rate
Other (above 8 hours per day)
Apr costs (overtime,
1,050 1,200 -150 500
hiring,
Labor layoffs,
-hours to produce a unit 1.6 hours per unit
May
subcontracting) 1,100 1,500
0 -400 100
Cost of increasing daily production rate $300 per unit
June
Total cost
(hiring
1,000
and training)
1,100
$58,850 -100 0
Cost of decreasing daily production rate $600 per unit 1,850
(layoffs)
Total units of inventory carried over from one
Table 13.3 month to the next = 1,850 units
Workforce required to produce 50 units per day = 10 workers
30
Possible Strategy 1
7,000 –
6,000 – Reduction
Cumulative demand units
of inventory
5,000 – Cumulative level 6,200 units
production using
4,000 – average monthly
forecast
requirements
3,000 –
–
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June
Figure 2
31
Possible Strategy 2
Subcontracting
32
Possible Strategy 2
Forecast demand
Production rate per working day
70 –
Level production
60 – using lowest
monthly forecast
50 – demand
40 –
30 –
0 –
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June = Month
Ð Ð Ð Ð Ð Ð
22 18 21 21 22 20 = Number of
working days
33
Possible Strategy 2
Cost Information
Inventory carrying cost $ 5 per unit per month
Subcontracting cost per unit $10 per unit
Average pay rate $ 5 per hour ($40 per day)
$ 7 per hour
Overtime pay rate
(above 8 hours per day)
Labor-hours to produce a unit 1.6 hours per unit
Cost of increasing daily production rate $300 per unit
(hiring and training)
Cost of decreasing daily production rate $600 per unit
(layoffs)
34
Possible Strategy 2
Cost Information
Inventory carry cost $ 5 per unit per month
In-house
Subcontracting production
cost per unit = 38$10units
per unitper day
Average pay rate x $124
5 perdays
hour ($40 per day)
=
Cost of increasing daily production rate
(hiring and training)
1,488 units
$300 per unit
35
Possible Strategy 2
Cost Information
Inventory carry cost $ 5 per unit per month
In-house
Subcontracting production
cost per unit = 38$10units
per unitper day
Average pay rate x $124
5 perdays
hour ($40 per day)
36
Possible Strategy 3
Hiring and firing
37
Production rate per working day Possible Strategy 3
Forecast demand and
monthly production
70 –
60 –
50 –
40 –
30 –
0 –
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June = Month
Ð Ð Ð Ð Ð Ð
22 18 21 21 22 20 = Number of
working days
38
Possible Strategy 3
Cost Information
Inventory carrying cost $ 5 per unit per month
Subcontracting cost per unit $10 per unit
Average pay rate $ 5 per hour ($40 per day)
$ 7 per hour
Overtime pay rate
(above 8 hours per day)
Labor-hours to produce a unit 1.6 hours per unit
Cost of increasing daily production rate $300 per unit
(hiring and training)
Cost of decreasing daily production rate $600 per unit
(layoffs)
39
Possible Strategy 3
Basic
Cost Information Production
Cost Extra Cost of Extra Cost of
Inventory carrying cost (demand x
Daily $ 5 perDecreasing
Increasing unit per month
Forecast Prod 1.6 hrs/unit x Production Production
Subcontracting
Month (units) cost
Rate per unit
$5/hr) $10
(hiring cost) per unitcost) Total Cost
(layoff
Average
Jan pay
900 rate 41 $ 7,200 — $ 5 per hour
— ($40 per$ day
7,200)
$1,200
$ 7 per hour
Feb
Overtime 700
pay rate39 5,600 — 6,800
(= 2 x $600)
(above 8 hours per day)
$600
Mar -hours
Labor 800 to produce
38 6,400
a unit — 1.6 hours per
(= 1 x unit
$600)
7,000
Cost
Apr of increasing
1,200 57daily production
9,600 rate
$5,700$300 per unit
— 15,300
(hiring and training) (= 19 x $300)
$3,300
Cost
May of decreasing
1,500 68daily production
12,000 rate $600 per unit
(= 11 x $300)
— 15,300
(layoffs)
$7,800
June 1,100 55 8,800 — 16,600
(= 13 x $600)
Table 13.3
$49,600 $9,000 $9,600 $68,200
40
Comparison of Three Strategies
Given
Giventhe
thedemand
demandand
andcost
costinformation
informationbelow,
below,what
what
are
arethe
theaggregate
aggregatehours/worker/month,
hours/worker/month,units/worker,
units/worker,and
and
dollars/worker?
dollars/worker?
Demand/mo Jan Feb Mar Apr May 7.25x2
Jun 2
Productive hours/worker/day
4500 5500 7000 7.25 8000
10000
6000
Paid straight hrs/day 8 7.25/0.15=48.33 &
22x8hrsx$8=$140 48.33x22=1063.33
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
8
Days/mo 22 19 21 21 22 20
Hrs/worker/mo 159.5 137.75 152.25 152.25 159.5 145
Units/worker 1063.33 918.33 1015 1015 1063.33 966.67
$/worker $1,408 1,216 1,344 1,344 1,408 1,280
43
Mixing Option: Chase Strategy
Lets
Letsassume
assumeour
ourcurrent
currentworkforce
workforceis
is77
Jan workers.
workers.
Days/mo 22
Hrs/wo rker/mo 1 59.5 First, calculate net requirements for
Units/worker 1,063.33 production, or 4500-250=4250 units
$/wo rker $1,408
$260,408.62
46
Mixing Option: Level Strategy
Surplus and Storage allowed
Lets
Letstake
takethe
thesame
sameproblem
problem
as
asbefore
beforebut
butthis
thistime
timeuse
usethe
the
Level
LevelWorkforce
Workforcestrategy
strategy Jan
Demand 4,500
This
Thistime
timewe
wewill
willseek
seektotouse
use
aaworkforce Beg. inv. 250
workforcelevel
levelof
of66workers
workers
Net req. 4,250
Workers 6
Production 6,380
Ending inventory 2,130
Surplus 2,130
Shortage
47
Below
Beloware
arethe
thecomplete
completecalculations
calculationsfor
forthe
theremaining
remaining
months
monthsin
inthe
thesix
sixmonth
monthplanning
planninghorizon
horizon
Note,
Note, ifif we
we recalculate
recalculate this
this sheet
sheet with
with 77 workers
workers
we
we would
would havehave aa surplus
surplus
48
Below
Below are
are the
the complete
complete calculations
calculations for
for the
the
remaining
remaining months
months inin the
the six
six month
month planning
planning
horizon
horizon with
with the
the other
other costs
costs included
included
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
4,500 5,500 7,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 Note,
Note,total
total
250 2,130 10 -910 -3,910 -1,620 costs
4,250 3,370 4,860 8,770 10,680 7,300 costsunder
under
6 6 6 6 6 6 this
thisstrategy
strategy
6,380 5,510 6,090 6,090 6,380 5,800 are
areless
lessthan
than
2,130 2,140 1,230 -2,680 -1,300 -1,500
Chase
Chaseat at
2,130 2,140 1,230
2,680 1,300 1,500 $260.408.62
$260.408.62
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
$8,448 $7,296 $8,064 $8,064 $8,448 $7,680 $48,000.00 Labor
31,900 27,550 30,450 30,450 31,900 29,000 181,250.00 Material
2,130 2,140 1,230 5,500.00 Storage
3,350 1,625 1,875 6,850.00 Stockout
$241,600.00
49
Mathematical Approaches
Costs
Regular time $40 per tire
Overtime $50 per tire
Subcontracting $70 per tire
Carrying $ 2 per tire per month
51
Transportation Example
Important points
1. Carrying costs are $2/tire/month. If
goods are made in one period and held
over to the next, holding costs are
incurred
2. Supply must equal demand, so a
dummy column called “unused
capacity” is added
3. Because back ordering is not viable in
this example, cells that might be used to
satisfy earlier demand are not available
52
Transportation Example
Important points
4. Quantities in each column designate the
levels of inventory needed to meet
demand requirements
5. In general, production should be
allocated to the lowest cost cell
available without exceeding unused
capacity in the row or demand in the
column
53
Transportation Example
54
Management Coefficients
Model
55
Other Models
Simulation
; Uses a search procedure to try different
combinations of variables
; Develops feasible but not necessarily optimal
solutions
56
Summary of Aggregate
Planning Methods
Solution
Techniques Approaches Important Aspects
Graphical Trial and Simple to understand and
methods error easy to use. Many
solutions; one chosen
may not be optimal.
Transportation Optimization LP software available;
method of linear permits sensitivity
programming analysis and new
constraints; linear
functions may not be
realistic.
57
Summary of Aggregate
Planning Methods
Solution
Techniques Approaches Important Aspects
Management Heuristic Simple, easy to implement;
coefficients tries to mimic manager’s
model decision process; uses
regression.
Simulation Change Complex; may be difficult
parameters to build and for managers
to understand.
58
Aggregate Planning in Services
59
Few Service Scenarios
; Restaurants
; Smoothing the production
process
; Determining the optimal
workforce size
; Hospitals
; Responding to patient demand
60
Few Service Scenarios
61
Few Service Scenarios
; Airline industry
; Extremely complex planning
problem
; Involves number of flights,
number of passengers, air and
ground personnel, allocation of
seats to fare classes
; Resources spread through the
entire system
62
Yield Management
60
30
Price
Tend to be fixed Tend to be variable
Quadrant 1: Quadrant 2:
Predictable
Movies Hotels
Stadiums/arenas Airlines
Duration of use
Quadrant 3: Quadrant 4:
Unpredictable
66
Making Yield Management Work
3. Changes in demand
67