Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Respond
to the Financial Crisis
A Survey of Risk Management Practices
Moscow 2009
IFC Russia Banking Advisory Project
Dr. Judit Burucs, Project Manager
ul. B. Molchanovka, 36/1
Moscow, Russia
Tel (+7 495) 411-75-55
Fax (+7 495) 411-75-56
E-mail: JBurucs@ifc.org
www.ifc.org/rbap
Russian Banks Respond
to the Financial Crisis
Moscow 2009
2 2008/2009 A Survey of Risk Management Practices
Acknowledgements
The IFC Banking Advisory Project would like to thank the 27 Russian banks who participated
in the survey for their time and honesty in participating in this survey. Their input has
helped give policymakers, bankers, and other stakeholders have a better understanding of
risk management practices in Russian banks and will help shape policy in the years to come.
Likewise, the Finance Academy of the Russian Federation, the Russian Association of Regional
Banks and the North-West Association of Banks provided invaluable input. Contributors to
the report include:
• Yulia Afrakova, Assistant, IFC Russia Banking Advisory Project
• Ekaterina Arsenyeva, Investment Officer, IFC Global Financial Markets
• Denis Bondarenko, Banking Advisor, IFC Russia Banking Advisory Project
• Judit Burucs, Project Manager, IFC Russia Banking Advisory Project
• Sarah Cruikshank Ockman, Consultant, IFC Advisory Services in Europe and
Central Asia
• Alexandra Dzeboeva, Investment Analyst, IFC Global Financial Markets
• Alexei Lunin, Investment Officer, IFC Global Financial Markets
• Patrick Luternauer, Senor Operation Manager, IFC Advisory Services in Europe and
Central Asia
• Natalia Ponomareva, Banking Advisor, IFC Russia Banking Advisory Project
• Svetlana Rumyantseva, Assoc. Investment Officer, IFC Global Financial Markets
• Inessa Tolokonnikova, Portfolio Head, IFC Global Financial Markets
• Kristina Turilova, Deputy Program Manager, IFC Russia Cleaner Production Program
About IFC
IFC, a member of the World Bank Group, creates opportunity for people to escape poverty and
improve their lives. We foster sustainable economic growth in developing countries by supporting
private sector development, mobilizing private capital, and providing advisory and risk mitigation
services to businesses and governments. Our new investments totaled $16.2 billion in fiscal 2008,
a 34 percent increase over the previous year. For more information, visit www.ifc.org.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Key Findings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
1. Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
1.1 Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
1.2 Survey Objectives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
1.3 Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
1.4 Survey Format . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
2. Liquidity Risk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
2.1 Liquidity Risk Management Framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
2.2 Liquidity Risk Identification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
2.3 Liquidity Risk Management Tools . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
2.4 Measuring Liquidity Risk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
2.5 Response to the Liquidity Crisis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
2.6 Liquidity Risk Regulation Follow-Up . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
3. Interest Rate Risk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16
3.1 Interest Rate Risk Management Framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
3.2 Elements of Interest Rate Risk Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
3.3 Interest Rate Risk Identification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
3.4 Interest Rate Risk Management Tools . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
3.5 Measuring Interest Rate Risk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
3.6 Interest Rate Risk Regulation Follow-Up . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
4. Credit Risk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20
4.1 Credit Risk Management Framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
4.2 Internal Regulations. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
4.3 Credit Risk Management Tools . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
4.4 Scoring/Rating Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
4.5 Credit Risk Regulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
5. Market Risk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .25
5.1 Market Risk Management Framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
5.2 Market Risk Management Tools . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
5.3 Internal Models Descriptive Information . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
5.4 Market Risk Regulation Follow-Up . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
6. Operational Risk . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .28
6.1 Operational Risk Management Framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
6.2 Operational Risk Identification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
6.3 Operational Risk Management Tools. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
6.4 Operational Risk Mitigation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
6.5 Operational Risk Regulation Follow-Up . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
7. Risk Management Impact. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .31
8. Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .32
9. Annex . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .33
6 2008/2009 A Survey of Risk Management Practices
Executive Summary
Russian banks have neither lent to the U.S. subprime market nor traded in derivatives of these
loans, but the global financial crisis has spread to the region, rocking the confidence in these
banks as inter-bank lending has come to a standstill.
Russian banks were not fully prepared for this external crisis, and 25 have already gone bankrupt
or been rescued by the state.
The deepening crisis calls for improved risk management practices worldwide, and Russia is no
exception. Since many of these banks are small – in 2009, only 50 banks out of a total of 1090
have balance sheets that exceed $2 billion – and smaller banks typically have less developed bank
practices than large ones, risk management is a developing discipline.
In November 2008, the IFC Russia Banking Advisory Project decided to conduct a quantitative
survey in order to ascertain whether Russian banks are adhering to international best practices in
risk management; how midsize banks in particular are coping with the crisis; and what products,
interventions, and regulations could improve the risk management infrastructure from the banks’
perspective. Questionnaires from 27 pre-selected regional and non-regional banks were collected
from December 2008 to February 2009.
Key Findings
Conclusion
At the time of this survey, Russian banks had only just begun to react to the crisis, mainly
by curtailing credits and increasing interest rates to attract new depositors. What is apparent
from the survey findings is that most of the respondents are not forward looking or thinking
long-term with regard to risk management; many respondents did not even answer survey
questions that forced them to think about their future plans. Perhaps most disturbing, given
the likely consolidation in the sector and their recent rapid growth, midsize banks seem the
least interested in improving their risk management tool sets. While this segment is clearly
the future of the Russian banking sector, many will certainly fail without clear guidance and
targeted investments in their people and skills. IT systems also must be bolstered to support
the flexible reporting required to assess risks on a daily and even hourly basis. Russian banks
understand that risk management is essential to prevent losses, but this is a long way from
establishing a true commitment to a strong risk management culture.
8 2008/2009 A Survey of Risk Management Practices
1. Introduction
1.1 Overview
After 10 years of accelerated growth the Russian banking sector has been seriously
impacted by the global financial crisis. Russian banks have neither lent to the U.S. subprime
market nor taken on derivatives of these loans, but they were hit hard when the inter-bank
lending market slowed to a standstill and confidence disappeared from the global banking
system.
At the end of 2007 Russia had 1,136 banks, but since mid-2008 25 banks have gone bankrupt
or have been rescued by the state. The credit crisis has forced banks worldwide to take a critical
look at how they manage risk, and this has exposed significant weaknesses in risk management
across the financial services industry. The Russian banking system is dominated by five state-
owned banks which together hold about 46 percent of assets. The largest, Sberbank, still
maintains about a 50 percent share of retail deposits in the country. The other banks are small:
only 50 Russian banks have balance sheets that exceed $2 billion.
1.3 Methodology
The survey team set out in November 2008 to
examine risk management practices and diagnose
the strengths and weaknesses of Russian banks in
dealing with the crisis.
Chart 1.3.1 Survey sample by asset size Written responses from 27 Russian banks were
collected from December 2008 to February 2009.
Respondents were domestically-owned private
banks. All banks set up by foreign owners or those
26% 26% linked to the government were eliminated from
Small banks
consideration.
Midsize banks
Despite the small number of banks participating
Large banks and their small share in terms of total assets in the
Russian banking sector (7 percent at the end of
2008), we consider the sample representative.
48% To achieve a balanced sample, banks of different
asset sizes were included in the survey. The sample
2008/2009 A Survey of Risk Management Practices 9
Medium
The survey asked 25 questions covering Non Rated
15%
37% 7%
B+
B
19%
Non rated
22%
10 2008/2009 A Survey of Risk Management Practices
2. Liquidity Risk
As the ongoing global financial crisis has shown, how banks manage their liquidity has a
major impact on all aspects of their operations and reverberates throughout a country’s
economy. Only with adequate liquidity can banks compensate for expected and unexpected
balance sheet fluctuations and provide funds for growth. Russian banks, in particular the
larger ones, have a firm grasp on who should be managing liquidity risk and are using stress
testing and other important tools to manage this risk. However, they still lack confidence
when it comes to identifying the primary sources of liquidity risks. In response to the
liquidity crisis, Russian banks have decreased credit disbursements, increased interest rates
on deposits, and turned to their contingency plans. They now seek long-term funding
and informational resources from regulators but do not believe that more regulation and
inspections are the keys to riding out the crisis.
Management
ARCO
ALCO
Credit
Committee
Management
Treasury
Finance
Units
Risk
Chart 2.2.1 What are the Main Sources of Liquidity (Up to 1 year)? 2.2 Liquidity Risk
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Identification
Interbank market dependency • Banks view deposit withdrawals as their
main liquidity risk for both over and under
Large deposits dependency one year. Although banks were not asked
about deposit withdrawal risk specifically,
Market and asset liquidity risk
large deposit dependency exceeds all other
concerns in the banking sector, as these risks
Loan portfolio concentration
were reported equally by all banks.
Nonperforming loans • Market dependency is a source of worry
for small and midsize banks. Smaller banks
Related party transactions
are more dependent on the financial market in
the short run than large banks since they are
OBS credit exposure
more likely to tap into the interbank market to
Creditworty rating downgrade fund long-term investments, therefore keeping
relatively large positions in securities.
Large banks Midsize banks Small banks
• Banks accustomed to borrowing from
abroad are strongly exposed to downgrade
risk. Banks rated by international agencies are
Chart 2.2.2 What are the Main Sources of Liquidity Risk (Over 1 year)? vulnerable to country and sector downgrades
100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% and difficulties raising funds from abroad.
Large banks report more concerns in this
Interbank market dependency
aspect than smaller ones, so the exposure
correlates positively with the size of a bank’s
Large deposits dependency
funding.
Market and asset liquidity risk
• Banks forecast high vulnerability to loan
Loan portfolio concentration
concentration in the short run and to non-
performing loans in the long run. Bank
Nonperforming loans loan portfolios may be an area of liquidity
risk concern in terms of exposure to both
Related party transactions specific and systemic risks. Surprisingly, the
banks reported that SME and retail lending
OBS credit exposure
tended to be of higher quality than corporate
Creditworty rating downgrade loan portfolios, at least during the first stages
of the crisis. However, the likelihood is that
Large banks Midsize banks Small banks the responding banks were shortsighted in
their crisis forecasts. At the time of the survey,
systemic shock was not apparent, suggesting
that the crisis has not yet fully taken hold. This
is partly explained by the varied answers given
by midsize banks. Therefore, it is doubtful that
such banks’ asset quality is higher than in other
banks; they simply have an overly optimistic
outlook given the current circumstances.
2008/2009 A Survey of Risk Management Practices 13
2.3 Liquidity Risk Chart 2.3.1 Which Tools do Banks Use to Manage Liquidity Risk Now?
Management Tools
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
• Basic tools for measuring liquidity risk Daily paysheet and short
are currently used by 85-90 percent of term cash flow schedule
banks. All the tools recommended by the Inflows/Outflows simulation
techniques
authorities are being used internally by Hight liquid assets portfolio
Russian banks. For short-term risks, the maintenance
following tools are being used: daily per Funding matrix based
on perspective terms
sheet and cash flow schedules; for long-
term: funding matrices, liquidity gap analysis Stress testing
and simplified stress testing. Liquidity gap analysis
• In future, the banks plan to use more
Funding planning
sophisticated risk analysis techniques.
Banks intend to improve simulation Inhouse liquidity indicators
techniques of inflows and outflows,
Contingency planning
management of their liquidity cushion,
performance of scenario analysis, and Large banks Midsize banks Small banks
development of a limits system. In-house
indicator analysis and contingency planning
also need to be strengthened. Chart 2.3.2 Which Tools do Banks Plan to Develop
to Manage Liquidity Risk in the Future?
• Large banks are better prepared to deal
with liquidity risk than others. Although 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
large banks now rely on many different Daily paysheet and short term
cash flow schedule
tools, they are eager to improve further. Inflows/Outflows simulation
Small banks are less equipped but expressed techniques
a willingness to upgrade their liquidity risk Hight liquid assets portfolio
maintenance
management systems in the future. Midsize Funding matrix based on
banks, according to the survey results, perspective terms
are the least interested in improving their Stress testing
liquidity risk tools in the future: they use
Liquidity gap analysis
some techniques but seem reluctant to fill
the gaps in their liquidity risk management. Funding planning
Contingency planning
Chart 2.5.1 How are Banks Responding to the Crisis? 2.5 Response to
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% the Liquidity Crisis
Follow/prepare Contingency plan • Managing lending and deposits are
Russian banks’ two main responses for
Increase frequency of reporting dealing with the crisis. Russian banks have
and ALCO meetings
taken urgent measures, including decreasing
or halting credit disbursements altogether, or
Decrease credit disbursement
retaining or substituting their deposit base.
Credit disbursement based While the large banks could easily halt lending
on depositsincrease and increase interest rates to attract depositors,
Increase the interest
midsize and especially small banks are far less
rates on deposits likely to increase their interest rates, either
because they fear this would send the wrong
Apply to the shareholders
for additionalfunding message to their clients for both deposits and
loans.
Large banks Midsize banks Small banks
• Banks are using contingency planning and
other formal procedures during the crisis
differently according to size. Due to their
wider scope of activity, large banks rely more
on formal contingency plans. Smaller banks
are less likely to follow or have a contingency
plan and rely on their management to manage
the crisis, presumably in a less systemic way.
2008/2009 A Survey of Risk Management Practices 15
Provide guarantees
for the banks liabilities
Extend shortterm
funding opportunities
Chart 3.1 Which Departments Take Part in Managing Interest Rate Risk? 3.1 Interest Rate Risk
100%
Management Framework
• Banks endeavor to keep control over
80%
interest rate risk in the Treasury or finance
60% department, but more power needs to be
handed to the Risk Management Unit
40% and ALCO. Large banks are following
20%
international best practice by having their
ALCOs and Treasuries lead the interest rate
0% risk management process. Management also
Business
Board of
Directors
Management
ARCO
ALCO
Credit
Committee
Management
Treasury
Finance
Units
Risk
Internal controls
Disclosing information
4. Credit Risk
In Russia, credit risk management is strongly dependent on the size of the bank. As with other
risk types, large banks more actively follow international best practices and use more modern
approaches for credit risk assessment and management. The weakest areas are early warning
systems, stress testing, and crisis planning. Few banks have the appropriate IT support for
credit risk management. From regulators, respondents would like to see guidelines on rating/
scoring systems and the most simple models for quantifying credit risk.
40%
• Large banks more actively follow best
practice. Most of these banks have Audit and
20% Risk Management Committees: 71 percent
compared to only 23 percent of midsize
0%
banks.
Business
Board of
Directors
Management
ARCO
ALCO
Credit
Committee
Management
Treasury
Finance
Units
Risk
regulation are: models, stress testing, and Limits structure and procedures
crisis planning. On average, only 41 percent Risk monitoring and control
of the banks perform stress testing and Reporting procedures and templates
fewer use models, have model verification Stress testing procedures
procedures, or plan for crises.
Crisis planning
a regular basis.
Monitors provisions
• Credit limits systems are quite strong. and reserves
Credit decisions in all large banks and most
smaller banks are approved in accordance Monitors credit portfolio
• About 50 percent of the banks want to 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
5. Market Risk
The approach to managing market risk varies considerably by size of bank, not surprising
given the skill level required for more advanced methodologies. Starting with organizational
structure, midsize banks need to strengthen their ALCOs, which should be responsible for
managing market risks. More information and guidelines on these methodologies would help
the banks develop in this crucial area and help them cope with the increasing complexities of
a bank’s market risk exposures and respective market environments.
Management
ARCO
ALCO
Credit
Committee
Risk
Management
Treasury
Finance
Business
Units
5.2 Market Risk
Management Tools Large banks Midsize banks Small banks
6. Operational Risk
With all eyes on risk management in banking these days, it is clear that management of
operational risk must be integrated into every aspect of the bank. Whereas policies and
procedures for risk management come from the top originating with the board, it is the
business units, particularly the client-facing units, which must implement the risk framework
on a daily basis. People and IT risks are rated high as concerns for Russian banks and should
be high priorities for investment. While a handful of respondents believe more regulation is
needed, most did not vary from their international counterparts in demanding more support
and guidelines.
Management
ARCO
ALCO
Credit
Committee
Management
Treasury
Finance
Units
Risk
Seltassessment survey
Balance scorecards
Setting limits
Contingency planning
8. Conclusion
At the time of the survey, banks had only recently begun to react to the crisis, mainly by
curtailing credits and increasing interest rates to attract new depositors. What is apparent from
the survey findings is that most respondents are not forward-looking or thinking long-term
about risk management; many respondents did not even answer questions that forced them
to think about their future plans. Perhaps most disturbing given the likely consolidation in the
sector and their rapid growth, midsize banks seem the least interested in improving their risk
management toolsets. While this segment is clearly the future of the Russian banking sector,
many will certainly fail without clear guidance and targeted investments in their people and
skills. IT systems must also be bolstered to support the flexible reporting required to assess
risks on a daily and even hourly basis. Russian banks understand that risk management is
essential to prevent loss, but this is a long way from true commitment to developing a strong
risk management culture.
2008/2009 A Survey of Risk Management Practices 33
9. Annex
Detailed Charts
Detailed answers to questions on stress testing
Chart 9.1 Which Types of Scenarios are Banks Testing Now (Liquidity Risk)?
Liquidity Risk
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Scenario: expansion of
Bank's activities
Chart 9.2 Which Types of Scenarios do Banks Plan to Test in the Future (Liquidity Risk)?
Scenario: liquidiy
crisis on financial mkt
Scenario: run on
client base
Scenario: downgrade
of Bank's credit rating
Scenario: expansion
of Bank's activities
Chart 9.3 Which Types of Limit Setting are Banks Conducting Now (Interest Rate Risk)?
Interest 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Rate Risk
Net interest margin
Economic capital
Gap/Equity
Chart 9.4 What Limit Setting Methods do Banks Plan to Develop in the Future
(Interest Rate Risk)?
100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0%
Economic capital
Gap/Equity
Chart 9.5 Which Types of Stress Testing are Banks Conducting Now (Interest Rate Risk)?
Interest
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Rate Risk
Shifts by 0200 b.p.
Nonparallel
shifts
Chart 9.6 Which Types of Stress Testing do Banks Plan to Develop in the Future?
Nonparallel shifts
Chart 9.7 Which Types of VaR Models are Banks Using Now?
Market Risk
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Historical simulation
Parametric approach
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
Historical simulation
Parametric approach
Chart 9.9 Which Types of Stress Testing are Banks Using Now?
Market Risk
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Historical scenarios
Hypothetical scenarios
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
Historical scenarios
Hypothetical scenarios
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Position limits
Stoploss limits
VaR limits
Sensitivity limits
Concentration limits
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
Position limits
Stoploss limits
VaR limits
Sensitivity limits
Concentration limits
Chart 9.13 What Specific Risk Measurement Tools are Banks Using Now?
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Operational
Risk
Basic indicator
approach
Standardized
Approach/ASA
Advanced
Approach/AMA
Chart 9.14 Which Specific Risk Measurement Tools do Banks Plan to Develop?
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
Standardized
Approach/ASA
Advanced Approach/AMA
Moscow 2009
IFC Russia Banking Advisory Project
Dr. Judit Burucs, Project Manager
ul. B. Molchanovka, 36/1
Moscow, Russia
Tel (+7 495) 411-75-55
Fax (+7 495) 411-75-56
E-mail: JBurucs@ifc.org
www.ifc.org/rbap