FORECASTING THE ACCURACY OF “OPEN” POLYGON WITH

STOCHASTIC MODELING (METHOD “MONTE CARLO”)

M. Mazhdrakov1, D. Benov2, I. Ivanov3

1
Prof., DSc, University of Mining and Geology “St. Ivan Rilski”, Bulgaria, 1421 Sofia, 10
Sv. Naum Str., +359 892 444 557, m.mazhdrakov@acmo-2006.eu
2
ACMO-2006 LTD, Bulgaria, 1836 Sofia, compl. Levski-G, No. 34, ent. G, fl. 7, app. 110,
+359 878 700 626, fax +359 2 470 3922, d.benov@acmo-2006.eu
3
M. Eng., “Ellatzite Med" PLC, Bulgaria, 2180 Etropole, +359 888 733 155,
i.g.ivanov@ellatzite-med.com

ABSTRACT
"Open" or "free", are called polygons that starts at a point and a face with known coordinates,
respectively path angle, and develops measurement of lengths and angles without having to
include a specific endpoint.
The open polygon does not meet the fundamental principles for conducting mine surveying
work. It does not follow the scheme for the development of polygon networks - from general to
private, but just the opposite - it moves from private to general. Furthermore, it is made only the
minimum required number of measurements, i.e. no "extra" measurements, which does not allow
an objective control and judgment of the achieved accuracy.
The creation of underground mining galleries is directed with such polygon type. The error in
the endpoint depends on the length and shape of the polygon and the accuracy of measured
angles and lengths between stations. Forecasting of this error, we use stochastic modeling
method known as “Monte Carlo”. Calculated is sample polygon with developed by authors
software.
The advantages of the proposed method are the following.
1. The computer realization of the method “Monte Carlo” allows a relatively sophisticated
probabilistic model to be applied to solve specific engineering problems.
2. By using random numbers in the interval [0;1), the mathematical model allows to cover
virtually all possible combinations of errors, incl. also the so called "Unlikely events".
3. The result is the expected distribution of deviations, which enables more reliable evaluation
of the adopted technology of measurement, compared with unit values which are the "classical"
solutions.

Keywords: "open" polygon, forecasting the accuracy, method "Monte Carlo".

1 DESCRIPTION
"Open" or "free", are called polygons that starts at a
point and a face with known coordinates,
respectively path angle, and develops
measurement of lengths and angles without having
to include a specific endpoint.
The open polygon does not meet the
fundamental principles for conducting mine
surveying work. It does not follow the scheme for
the development of polygon networks - from
general to private, but just the opposite - it moves
from private to general. Furthermore, it is made
only the minimum required number of
measurements, i.e. no "extra" measurements,
which does not allow an objective control and
judgment of the achieved accuracy. For these
reasons, the geodetic regulations do not allow the
use of this type polygons for working basis
development.
In certain cases, the implementation of “open”
polygon is the only possible solution. These are
mine surveying work in the mining galleries and
transportation, hydro and other tunnels. In those
cases, the “open” polygon follows dredging of the
facilities and simultaneously serves as a tracing of
their axis, and to survey the actual situation of the
be expected to produce the same coordinates of
the endpoint, which is obviously not true.
2 “MONTE CARLO” METHOD-BASED
ALGORİTHM
Because of the above reasons, we propose
another algorithm for solving the problem -
stochastic modeling method also known as “Monte
Carlo”.
The method “Monte Carlo” is used to simulate
physical processes, mathematical models and so
on. The method is suitable for computer
implementation and can be used when it is not
possible or is not appropriate to apply deterministic
algorithms.
The idea of the method "Monte Carlo" is
illustrated in Fig. 1.
Input Values
N=0
N=N+1
1

site.
0.9
0.8
0.7

Random Number
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2

GeneratorN1
This is especially responsible task while digging
0.1
0

X1
galleries and tunnels with counter-face or when
1
0.9

Random Number
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5

GeneratorN2
0.4

they must pass through points with known

0.3
0.2
0.1
0

X2
coordinates. ... 1
0.9
0.8

Because of this, in mine surveying technical

0.7

Random Number 0.6

0.5
0.4
0.3

GeneratorNm
0.2
0.1

instruction [1], is recommended when workings with

0

Xm

great length and/or complex shape to make a

preliminary assessment of accuracy, which is Modeled function
expected to arrive with the tools and methods of
measurement. Variant N

In mine surveying literature, popular is the

determination of the error in the last section of the no
Is Last?
“open” polygon with defined geometric shape of the
polygon and the mean square error of lengths and yes
angles, based on the law of errors transmission
[eg. 2,3].
In the practical application of this method must
be considered two factors.
1. The volume of calculations is significant. That
fact was important during the establishment of the
method [4]. For this reason, approximate formulas
are developed based on certain assumptions -
straight polygon, equal lengths of the sides, etc. Of
course, now it is not difficult to do relevant
computational computer program.
2. In our view, more important is another fact. In
Figure 1.
the literature is not noted, that although the use of
probability formulas, the method is in fact Used is random number generator to receive a
determinate. Under this method, with the same number of values of independent variable elements
input data, the same variation of the endpoint - X1, X2, ... Xm, and are made large number of
would always be predicted. This means that realizations of the model function (the “open”
repeated measurements of a polygon with the polygon). Thus, the expected distribution of results
same tools and same methodology should always (variations in "dangerous" direction) is retrieved
with sufficiently high precision.
 To be the “Monte Carlo” method effective it is
necessary to comply with certain conditions.
Modeled processes or phenomena should be
defined and described mathematically with enough
precision.
Must be defined a set of independent (relatively
independent) input variables. For each value
should be known the limits of variation, and the
frequency of occurrence, and the best is -
theoretical or empirical distribution.
From great importance for the realization of the
method is the used random number generator.
Widely are used computer programs for finding
values in the interval [0;1), which satisfy the so-
called statistical tests for randomness [5, 6, 7]. This
algorithm is not universal, but the realized with it
random numbers permits the issued task to be
solved reliably.
There is no definite answer for the number of
simulations. For modern fast computing means this
problem is not significant, but the program is
necessary to provide a procedure for periodic
renewal, respectively suspension of the
simulations.
3 PROGRAM REALIZATION
With applying the approach we have developed a
computer program to evaluate the accuracy of
“open” polygon.
The input of the program includes a geometric
diagram of the polygon (Fig. 2) and presumable
errors of the initial parameters - coordinates of the
point and azimuth, and the measured values -
polygon angles and lengths.
Figure 2. “Open” polygon, that should reach the
point with certain coordinates, the length is 1868 m
Developed are two options for transition "random
number-measurement error":
- normal distribution law, which is the basis of
geodetic (mine surveying) evaluate of the accuracy,
conditional, this option is described as "optimistic";
- systematic nature - only "positive" or only
"negative" values of the errors, which gets called
"boundary error" conditions, this option is described
as "pessimistic".
Of course, there are and other possible
dependences.
Provided are series of 100 000 simulations.
Received distributions of modeled values are
shown after each series (Fig. 3 and Fig. 4).
Appropriate is to stop the series of simulations,
when the differences are practically negligible.
Figure 3. Estimated distribution of mean square
error of X and Y coordinates of the endpoint in an
optimistic variant
Figure 4. Estimated distribution of mean square
error of X and Y coordinates of the endpoint in an
pessimistic variant
4 CONCLUSIONS
The advantages of the proposed method are the
following.
The computer realization of the “Monte Carlo”
method allows a relatively sophisticated
probabilistic model to be applied for solving a
specific engineering problems
By using random numbers in the interval [0, 1)
the mathematical model allows to cover virtually all
possible combinations of errors, incl. and called
"unlikely event".
The result is the expected distribution of
deviations, which enables more reliable evaluation
of the adopted technology of measurement,
compared with unit values calculated with the
"traditional" solutions.

REFERENCES
1. Техническа маркшайдерска инструкция, 1969.
ДИ Техника, София.
2. Велев, К, 1965. Общо маркшайдерство. ДИ
Техника, София.
3. Справочник по маркшайдерство, 1979. ДИ
Техника, София.
4. Бахурин, И. М, 1936. Вопросы
маркшейдерского искусства, Москва—
Ленинград.
5. Иванова, В. И, 1984. Случайные числа и их
применение. Финансы и статистика, Москва.
6. Форсайт, Д, 1986. Компютърни методи за
математически пресмятания. Наука и
Изкуство, София.
7. Маждраков, М, 1988. Автоматизация на
маркшайдерските изчисления и графични
построения. ВМГИ, София, 170 стр.