Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Prepared by
Brian Lewis
December, 2010
2
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Executive Summary 3
Introduction 5
Human Capital 13
Conclusion 14
Bibliography 15
3
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Saudi Arabia is poised to make its mark beyond oil and gas on the world rostrum. Its wealth
requires careful placement in the development of human resources to serve its growth and future.
The 2010 Nobel Laureates in Economic Science offer a roadmap for development of analytics
for policy development to address job creation and sustainable economic growth. What lies at
the heart of the Laureates writings is the importance of dense data of economic activity and
performance.
A detailed report to provide an overview-analysis of the complex economic writings of the 2010
Economic Laureates writings has been prepared and will be submitted if requested. The Index
on the previous page provides an overview of the topic headings therein discussed.
That more exhaustive report imparts a framework of the analytic collection analysis for the
development of foundational policies and regulations. The incorporation and implementation of
the theories advanced by the Laureates provides the basis for transparency indices that facilitate
strong policy and regulatory development and sustainable economic development.
The multifaceted web of analytics on the following page visually depicts the important factors
for policy and regulatory consideration. Answers and programs to identify and overcome causes
of unemployment, according to the Laureates must consider this complex of relations to develop
policies for job creation and programs promoting social stability.
Analysis of workforce productivity in the public sector reveals strong reason to promote private
sector growth and employment expansion. This information and data provides clear reason to
expand economic development and reduce public sector employment.
The included bibliography to this summary overview includes the a listing of the major writings
of the Laureates which have been reviewed and analyzed in the preparation of this summary
report as well as the more detailed report. Contained in these writings are extensive economic
algebraic expressions for both identification and analysis of important analytical measures to
strengthen the understanding and transparency of the economic activities and their inter-
workings at a governmental level.
4
Years Worked Capital
Total Human
Population Capital Movement
Population
Demographics
Experience/Wages Productivity
Gender
Unemployment
Population Government
Age Density Employment
Education Work
Hours
Widows
Wage
Survivor Dispersion Private
Benefits Employment
Minor
Children
Government
Policy
Job Job
Creation Destruction
Government
Regulations
Friction Economic
Growth
Health Social
Insurance Taxation
Welfare
Unemployment Minimum
Insurance Wage Training Employment Funding for
Programs Credits Retirement
Search Theory Applied to Labor Markets According to Retirement
the 2010 Nobel Prize for Economic Science, requires Benefits
consideration and Inclusion of these variables and
analytics
5
INTRODUCTION
The simplified explanation of the theories recognized by the award of the2010 Nobel Prize for
Economic Science is that it takes time to search for a new job and that a variety of personal and
business concerns require answers before the search ends in the offer and acceptance of a new
job.
This simplistic statement expands to an extensive web of complexity for those involved in policy
formulation to understand and incorporate into their thinking processes.
To achieve optimal understanding to develop policies and programs for sustainable economic
prosperity, improvement of analytical tools and measures is necessitated. Implementing these
steps will reduce the impact of turbulence by embedding insights to drive actions and deliver
value. In addition, this will provide for development of alternative scenarios and simulations for
both immediate guidance on best actions to take and support strategic planning and policy
formation.
Prioritizing future investments to bolster human capital and sustainable economic growth imparts
achievement of long-term advantage.
Organizations need to know what is happening now, and what is likely to happen next so to be
able to know what actions should be taken to obtain optimal results.
These intuitive beliefs create barriers for adoption of the analytic requirements from a
management and cultural perspective rather than as a result of a lack of data or technology.
For these reasons, those involved in policy formation need understand and convey programs to
establish and achieve the important needs for development and implementation of the required
analytical support on these complex parameters of economic measure.
The intent of this report on the extensive papers reviewed of the 2010 Economics Laureates is
the view that the reader(s) be able to then formulate appropriate questions and define insights
applicable to meet objectives and address challenges of their respective organization(s).
These steps of question formulation and formation facilitate the identification of pieces of data
needed and reduce time that might otherwise be misspent compiling unnecessary data.
The chart on page four visually presents the complex web identified by the 2010 Economic
Science Laureates in their extensive writings identifying and quantifying search frictions.
6
The subsequent pages of this report develop an overview of these detailed analysis and algebraic
expressions of economic insights which have been reviewed in preparation for this report. A
bibliography is then attached from which the reader(s) and their staff can obtain further
information and support as required.
Press Release 11 October 2010 (excerpted)
The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has decided to award The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in
Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel for 2010 to Peter A. Diamond Massachusetts
Institute of Technology; Dale T. Mortensen Northwestern University; and Christopher A.
Pissarides London School of Economics and Political Sciences
Why are so many people unemployed at the same time that there are a large number of job
openings? How can economic policy affect unemployment?
The Laureates' models help us understand the ways in which unemployment, job vacancies, and
wages are affected by regulation and economic policy. This may refer to benefit levels in
unemployment insurance or rules in regard to hiring and firing. One conclusion is that more
generous unemployment benefits give rise to higher unemployment and longer search times. 1
A key breakthrough was to realize that the problem was not how to explain unemployment per se
but rather how to explain hiring, firing, quits, vacancies and job search and to think of
unemployment as the result of all of this underlying microeconomic behavior. The
underlying behavior involves not just workers looking for jobs but also employers looking for
workers so explaining unemployment would require a theory of job search, worker search and
matching and each aspect of the theory would have to be consistent with every other aspect; i.e.
how much workers search depends on how much employers are searching (e.g. advertising) and
vice-versa and also on the quality of matching and all of these considerations need to be
addressed together.
Professor Diamond brings concern for risk, and stability conditions, and dynamic and broader
conditions. There is a strong emphasis on the ability of government to implement welfare-
improving schemes of the sort found in social democracies. The approach is quite technocratic --
solve and advise. Public choice and political economy considerations take a back seat.
Diamond’s 1982 paper on aggregate demand argues that the result of actually modeling a
competitive economy with trade frictions is to find multiple natural rates of unemployment. This
implies that one of the goals for macro policy should be to direct the economy toward the best
1
Nobel Prize, http://nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics/laureates/2010/press.html, October 11, 2010
7
natural rate (not necessarily the lowest) after any sufficiently large macro shock. 2 3 Professor
Mortensen concurred. 4 5 Professor Pissarides expanded the ideas of search theory in subsequent
writings. 6
These complex variables provide a more detailed understanding of the frictions that occur in
labor search analysis. The quantitative implications of labor-market search were found to
improve the “model” empirical performance along several dimensions.
2
Diamond, Peter. A., “Aggregate Demand Management in Search Equilibirum,” The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 90,
Issue 5, (Oct. 1982), 882.
3
Diamond, Peter, “Wage Determination and Efficiency in Search Equilibrium,” Review of Economic Studies, (1982) XLIX, 217,
The Society for Economic Analysis 1982.
4
Mortensen, Page 9
5
Mortensen, Dale T., et. al, “More on unemployment and vacancy fluctuations,” Review of Economic Dynamics 10, (2007.,
Page 328
6
Pissarides, Christopher A., “Scale Effects in Markets with Search,” Oct. 2002, Page 19
7
Pissarides, Christopher A., “Short-Run Equilibrium Dynamics of Unemployment, Vacancies and Real Wages,” The American
Economic Review, Volume 75, Issue 4 (Sep., 1985),676
8
Mortensen, Dale T., et. al., “Labor Market Models of Worker and Firm Heterogeneity,” October 7, 2009 Pages 2, 3 and 5
8
The importance of policy and regulatory issues, such as the ease of hiring and firing, establishing
a business, social welfare costs, taxation, and other similar business operations questions is
addressed in the writings of the Nobel Laureates. 9 , 10 Part of the confusion in the term of
changing preferences comes from the different basic modeling of preferences in standard
economics and in some behavioral economics. As with standard analysis, going from
consideration of policy to a recommendation requires a positive evaluation of what the political
process will do with such a recommendation. 11 , 12 Important considerations affecting job
destruction include:
Start-up Costs 13 , 14
Complex Regulatory requirements 15
Retirement Programs. 16
Availability of Finance 17
Bankruptcy Availability. 18
High Unemployment Insurance. 19 , 20 , 21
Minimum Pay Requirements. 22
Employment Protection Programs 23 , 24 , 25
Wage Demands 26
Improved Productivity 27 , 28
Improved Technology 29
Monetary Policy and Inflation 30 , 31
9
Diamond, Peter, “Behavioral Economics and Its Applications,” 2007, Princeton: Princeton University Press., Page 2
10
Diamond, Page 5
11
Diamond, Page 4
12
Diamond, Peter, “Behavioral Economics and Its Applications,” 2007, Princeton: Princeton University Press., Page 2
13
Pissarides, Christopher A., “Company Start-Up Costs and Employment,” Paper written for Festschrift Conference for Ned
Phelps, Columbia University, October 5-6, 2001., Page 1
14
Mortensen, Dale T., “Island Matching,” October 1, 2008
15
Pissarides, page 15
16
Diamond, Page 5
17
Pissarides, Page 2
18
Pissarides, Page 2
19
Mortensen, Page 191
20
Mortensen, Page 191
21
Mortensen, Page 191
22
Mortensen, Dale T., “Reducing Supply-Side Disincentives to Job Creation” Page 191
23
Mortensen, Page 192
24
Mortensen, Page 193
25
Mortensen, Excerpted from pages 206-28=08
26
Mortensen, Page 193
27
Mortensen, Dale T., “Reducing Supply-Side Disincentives to Job Creation” Pages 193-194
28
Mortensen, Page 35
29
Mortensen and Pissarides, Page 246
30
Phillips curve-- In economics, the Phillips curve is a historical inverse relationship between the rate of unemployment and the
rate of inflation in an economy. Stated simply, the lower the unemployment in an economy, the higher the rate of inflation. While
9
Analysis suggests that the provisions of the unemployment insurance system have important
disincentive effects on job creation. Specifically, the model implies that a 50 percent reduction in
unemployment insurance benefit levels would decrease the unemployment rate in the United
States by almost one and one-half percentage points. 32 , 33
These above factors tend to have a negative impact and thus increase job destruction potential.
On the other side of this determination, there are important opportunities whereby policy makers
can provide positive impact on the job creation functions by regulatory and support mechanisms.
Job creation subsidies explain 91 percent of the variation in unemployment rate averages over
the 1983-88 time period across the principal nineteen Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development (OECD) industrial countries. 34
Training Programs 35
Improved Profitability 36
Financial Incentives 37
Tax Incentives 38 , 39
Concentrated Skilled Workforce
Bankruptcy Protection
Improved Productivity 40 , 41
Efficiency Gains 42
Improved Technology 43
Monetary Policy 44 , 45
It is important to note that many of these job creation and support programs have the greatest
positive impact on low skilled and low paid workers. 46
it has been observed that there is a stable short run tradeoff between unemployment and inflation, this has not been observed in
the long run.)
31
Pissarides, Pages 10-11
32
Mortensen, Pages 210-211
33
Mortensen and Pissarides Pages 242-243
34
Mortensen, Dale T., “Reducing Supply-Side Disincentives to Job Creation” Page 190
35
Mortensen and Pissarides, Page 27
36
Mortensen, Page 7
37
Mortensen and Pissarides, Page 20
38
Mortensen and Pissarides, Page 20
39
Mortensen and Pissarides, Page 27
40
Mortensen, Page 35
41
Mortensen, Dale T., “Reducing Supply-Side Disincentives to Job Creation” Pages 193-194
42
Mortensen, Dale T., “Reducing Supply-Side Disincentives to Job Creation” Pages 193-194
43
Mortensen, Dale T., “Reducing Supply-Side Disincentives to Job Creation” Pages 193-194
44
Pissarides, Page 3
45
Pissarides, Pages 10-11
10
From a policy perspective, it is important to recognize that because job creation rates depend on
unemployment, which is a slow-moving variable, whereas job destruction rates do not depend on
it, that job destruction is more volatile than job creation rates. 47
Underlying these different analytical parameters is an even more important consideration for
long term planning.
It has been determined labor pooling in metropolitan areas is more critical to company relocation
and job formation than any other factor. . 48
This important finding supports the additional finding that the ability to choose the most suitable
employees and that the heterogeneity in skills attracts both firms and even more workers to
bigger markets and supports agglomeration at higher trade costs. 49 These same findings have
led to an additional finding that such results encourage and support the additional relocation of
even more skilled and experienced workers into the market and thus further strengthen and
expand this process—this is especially important when high-skilled tech labor is required. 50
The primary goal of the Welfare State is to insure the population against “social risks” as a way
to increase social cohesion and equality…. How the different instruments of social policies are
conducted have relevant consequences for poverty, income distribution, and the functioning of
the labor market, as governments may also try and achieve more equitable distribution through
regulation of economic relationships, particularly those in the labor market. Social policy
instruments may be usefully classified according to their goals. More or less obvious goals of the
policies of interest here –each, of course, an intermediate target in pursuit of deeper ends -- are
the following:
Sickness and Health Care has the next-highest share of social protection spending
Unemployment benefits are often regarded as an important component of social expenditures….
Sickness and especially disability transfers perform a similar function as protection against non-
employment. 52
46
Mortensen and Pissarides, Page 20
47
Pissarides, Page 13
48
Pissarides, Page 3
49
Pissarides, Page 1
50
Pissarides, Page 3
51
Pissarides, Pages 6-7
52
Pissarides, Page 10
11
A primary intermediate goal of social policy is the first one listed in our classification above,
namely that of guaranteeing subsistence to people in need, regardless of their current and past
employment. 53
A third notionally distinct (but in practice intimately related) aim of European social policies is
that of improving the lot of workers, chiefly by protecting them from adverse labor-market or
lifecycle developments. 54
A different question arises in the consideration of retirement and/or disability plans and how or if
this should be undertaken.
Viewed in the settings of a century or two, economically advanced countries have experienced
two striking changes – large increased in average life expectancy and large decreases in the
average age at which (long-career) workers stop working (or stop holding full time jobs. This
trend has been accompanied by a drop in the length of the average working year as well. Trend
growth in real earnings plays a central role in these phenomena. Higher earnings and tax-
financed higher public expenditures contribute to longer lives by providing a higher standard of
living and by financing improvements in public health and in medical knowledge and its
application. Higher earnings support decreased work, on both annual and lifetime time scales,
by allowing higher consumption despite decreased work. 55
It is a mistaken policy to have very high implicit taxes that strongly encourage early retirement
(and which may affect the pension system long term) as a response to unemployment which Is
generally shorter term and not systematically improved long-term. 56
Mandatory pension systems are mandatory because of a concern that left to their own devices too
many workers would not save adequately for retirement. 57
Insofar as the mandatory pension system reduces replacement rates as part of adapting to longer
lives, workers are likely to need additional voluntary savings if they are to have adequate
replacement rates. Both employers and government can play a major role in assisting and
encouraging workers to save for retirement. 58
Recently, there has been an explosion of analyses of how workers respond to employer-provided
retirement savings opportunities. Much has been learned about how poorly many workers do in
selecting a savings rate and in selecting an asset portfolio. Moreover, much has been learned,
drawing on behavioral economics on how to induce workers to do better. 59
53
Pissarides, page 13
54
Pissarides, Page 22
55
Diamond, Peter, Pensions for an Aging Population,” Presented at IDEI Annual Conference, Toulouse, France, Nov. 2, 2005.
Pages 1 and 2
56
Diamond, Page 7
57
Diamond, Page 13
58
Diamond, Page 16
59
Diamond, Page 17
12
The concern in the present context is whether the allocation of skilled labor is the one most likely
to maximize the country’s growth potential. ….Manufacturing occupies a smaller fraction of the
labor force than in other industrializing countries, and this is compensated for in the MENA
region by a bigger public sector …government and public sector (excluding health and education
in the case of Table 5b) employ a bigger fraction of the non-agricultural labor force than in any
region outside Africa. 62
Another set of more detailed statistics shows that in Egypt, government employs more than half
of all degree holders in the country, with public enterprises also employing a large fraction.
Public sector employment of this magnitude clearly interferes with the static efficiency of the
labor market and deeper country studies need to investigate carefully the uses to which the public
sector puts this human capital. Page 9
Recent studies show that low productivity is exacerbated in the public sector of countries in the
MENA region by an increasing overstaffing (World Bank, 2004). In the early 1990s, the share of
underutilized workers in the public sector ranged from 17 % (Algeria) to 21 % (Egypt) and to
even more in the oil exporting countries. This share, despite its substantial size, has increased
60
Diamond, Page 6
61
Diamond, Pages 26-27
62
Pissarides Page 8
13
recently to 35 % in Egypt and 40 % in Jordan. Berthelemy et al. (1999) estimated the average
loss of GDP growth due to public sector employment by making the admittedly strong
assumption that the fraction of human capital employed in the administrative public sector does
not contribute at all to growth. The loss in the MENA and sub-Saharan Africa regions is bigger
than elsewhere by a large margin. 63
The waste of human capital through the high unemployment rates must be a contributory factor
to the low overall contribution of human capital to growth. Interestingly, despite the high
unemployment rates, entrepreneurs regularly cite the lack of labor with suitable skills as an
important constraint to hiring. The combination of high skilled unemployment and skill
shortages at the industrial level provides support to those who have claimed that the education
systems in the MENA region have mostly been geared to the needs of the public sector. The high
wages and other job advantages (such as job security, worker protection and social allowances)
offered by the public sector lead to educated workers queuing for public sectors jobs, and so to
the absence of pressure to reform the educational system according to the needs of industry. 64
Human Capital
A variety of ‘engines of growth’ are usually discussed in the growth literatures that are directly
or indirectly related to human capital and the implementation of new ideas. The conclusion
reached from a reading of the recent growth literature is that if we are to understand growth and
development, we need to understand the creation and deployment of human capital. 65
Research on growth and the labor market in the MENA region has to begin with an examination
of the labor market institutions in the MENA countries that are likely to influence growth
outcomes….There is virtually no literature explaining which labor market institutions are likely
to be good for growth and which bad…In the case of the MENA region, although some recent
studies analyze quite extensively the functioning of the labor market, there is very little
discussion in the connections between the labor market and growth. 66
Country research on growth can make a real contribution to our understanding of growth if it can
produce new data that can identify labor-market institutions that are conducive to the creation
and deployment of good quality human capital and institutions that are wasteful of human
resources…. It is shown that despite rapid growth in human capital resources, it is unlikely that
human capital has contributed significantly to growth in this region. The challenge facing
research in this region is to find the reasons for the apparent wasteful use of human capital. 67
63
Pissarides Pages 9-10
64
Pissarides Page 10
65
Pissarides, Christopher A., et. al., “Labor markets and economic growth in the MENA region,” Growth Development Project
of the World Bank, 1999 since revised) Page 2
66
Pissarides Page 2
67
Pissarides Page 2
14
Conclusion
The simplified statement of theory noted at the beginning of this report clearly is inadequate to
define and differentiate the importance of establishing and embedding analytic parameters across
broad societal structures.
The questions which need to be created and developed to bring together the appropriate system
of analysis are of critical concern. Doing this right will allow for advanced statistical techniques
such as regression analysis, discrete choice modeling, and mathematical optimization to occur.
These abilities will provide tools to develop animated maps and charts to stimulate critical
changes across the entire economy.
Turbulence in the economy is to be avoided if at all possible. The new ability arising from the
establishment of policies, regulations, and implementable programs to collect and analyze and
achieve the critical actionable insights can lead to creating dash boards, score cards, simulation
and scenario development, and more tools to provide strong visual support for comprehension
and action—data visualization and process stimulation tools can bring data to life!
An even more detailed report has been prepared and is available for submission if requested.
The following bibliography contains the reference materials reviewed in preparation of this
report. These complex writings in economic theory by the 2010 Laureates for Economic Science
contain detailed analysis and theorem solving algebraic expressions of economic analysis with
resulting expressions for establishing methodologies for policy development with strong analytic
support.
15
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Economy, Vol. 90, Issue 5, (Oct. 1982), 881-
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16
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Pissarides, Christopher A, “ Company Start-Up Costs and Employment,” Paper written for Festschrift
Conference for Ned Phelps, Columbia University, October 5-6,
2001. http://www.elsevier.com/framework_aboutus/pdfs/Economics_Nobel_2010/Pissarides_Nobel/Fons
eca_Entrepreneurship-start-up-costs-and-employment_2001.pdf
Pissarides, Christopher A., “Equilibrium in the Labour Market with Search Frictions,” Nobel Lecture,
Dec. 8, 2010, (Presentation
slides) http://static.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics/laureates/2010/pissarides-lecture-slides.pdf
Pissarides, Christopher A., et. al., “Labor markets and economic growth in the MENA region,” Growth
Development Project of the World Bank, 1999 since
revised) http://personal.lse.ac.uk/pissarid/papers/MAVJan05.pdf
Pissarides, Christopher A., 2010 Prize Lecture by Christopher A. Pissarides, Dec. 8,
2010, http://nobelprize.org/mediaplayer/index.php?id=1432 (Video)
Pissarides, Christopher A “Trade and Industrial Location with Heterogeneous Labor ,” The Economic
Geography of Europe: Measurement, Testing and Policy Simulations, Villars, 18/19 January
2002. http://www.elsevier.com/framework_aboutus/pdfs/Economics_Nobel_2010/Pissarides_Nobel/Amit
i_Trade-and-industrial-location-with-heterogeneous-labor_2005.pdf
18
Pissarides, Christopher A, “The Economics of Search,” Forthcoming in Encyclopedia of the Social and
Behavioral Sciences, Elsevier. September 2000
Pissarides, Christopher A, “Scale Effects in Markets with Search,” Oct.
2002. ftp://repec.iza.org/RePEc/Discussionpaper/dp691.pdf
Pissarides, Christopher A,” Short-Run Equilibrium Dynamics of Unemployment, Vacancies, and Real
Wages,”
The American Economic Review, Volume 75, Issue 4 (Sep., 1985),676-
690. http://qed.econ.queensu.ca/pub/faculty/lloyd-ellis/econ815/papers/pissarides.pdf
Pissarides, Christopher A., “Unemployment in Britain: A European Success Story,” Written for the
conference “Unemployment in Europe: Reasons and Remedies, Oct
2003. http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/dp0600.pdf
Pissarides, Christopher A, “Welfare Systems and Labor Markets in Europe: What convergence before and
after EMU?” http://www.personalweb.unito.it/giuseppe.bertola/EcoPolLav/WelfPolEU.pdf
Pissarides, Christopher A., and Mortensen, Dale T., “New Developments in Models of Search in the
Labor Market,” Center for Labor Market Research, Science Park, Denmark, Nov.
1998. http://cenet3.nsd.edu.cn/uploadimages/2004487512622286.pdf
Nobel Prize, http://nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics/laureates/2010/press.html, October 11, 2010