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1. Expand the sample range and enter new data for the new time periods:
o PROCS/CHANGE WORKFILE RANGE
o click edit button and add data for r for the 6 month forecast period (we'll
just assume it won’t change, so we’ll put in the most recently observed
value, 6.52%)
o in FORECAST box:
400
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
HOUSESF
o Return to Workfile window where you will now have new variables
Housesf and sef that are your forecast and the standard error of the
forecast.
o You can make graphs of Houses and Housesf to see the actual and forecast
data together. Use a Quick Graph/ line graph.
2400
2000
1600
1200
800
400
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
HOUSES HOUSESF
o You can select variables to see a spreadsheet of r, Houses, Housesf, and
SEF. Confidence intervals can be made for the forecast using this
information.
Observe how sef varies with distance of r from its mean, 9.450.