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Guess
Open Society Institute
This article provides an analytic framework to guide regimes that are designing or implementing
decentralization programs. It is based on a comparison of three Asian cases of fast-track decen-
tralization. The framework suggests that regimes contemplating devolution must face fundamental
issues of (1) background support, (2) culture and institutions, and (3) technical design and se-
quencing. It can be used by regimes to compare the relative difficulty of fundamental challenges to
decentralization with their own capacity and potential for effective response. The three regimes
responded similarly to the first two issues and differed in how they performed technical activities to
implement the decentralization programs. Within this technical sequence, the regimes varied widely
in performance. In that the Philippine program has attained better performance so far, the differ-
ent responses of that regime are significant. More research is required to explain differences in
technical performance in the Philippines and other similar programs and to attribute measures of
decentralization success to these differences.
Introduction
Regimes that are contemplating decentralization pro- experiences of Pakistan, Indonesia, and the Philippines,
grams are often reluctant to take the political risk of un- predicts that regimes will face both general background
known technical consequences in design and implementa- challenges (top support, decision capacity, and political
tion. Regimes know that policies are often based on myth, culture) and specific technical design issues. They need to
and decisions on imperfect information. Policy makers respond to intense criticism that neither the regime nor the
would like to eliminate myths and reduce uncertainty be- country can meet these decentralization challenges. The
fore proceeding with programs such as decentralization. framework provides preliminary answers to these critics.
In 1996, policy makers at the Albanian Ministry of Inte-
rior asked me to provide comparative regional informa-
tion on how to prevent fiscal transfers from acting as a
To Decentralize or Not to Decentralize?
disincentive to local revenue mobilization. Without this Regimes are advised that decentralization is an efficient
information, which was unavailable at the time, the min- program that can improve performance. Efficiency is a very
istry’s state secretary for local government was reluctant broad category in the literature (Guess, Loehr, and Vazquez
to push for devolution. Other regimes have also found them- 1997, 10–26) that includes activities ranging from political
selves at this point, and they need an empirically based representation to service results. The notion of an efficient
guide or framework for the successful design and imple- local government is that it can provide more responsive and
mentation of decentralization. Considerable advice has innovative services and, in turn, can be held more account-
been provided by international donors, consultants, and able for operations by local voters than nationally provided
university personnel on decentralization. But at this stage,
regimes need more than technical advice on single issues Dr. George M. Guess is director of research, Open Society Institute, Local
Government and Public Service Reform Initiative, Budapest, Hungary. Previ-
such as fiscal transfers or tax policies. ously, he was public budgeting specialist for the Pakistan Fiscal Decentrali-
This article provides a preliminary but empirically zation project, financed by the Asian Development Bank (2001–02), and
technical backstop for the Indonesia Local Government Financial Framework
grounded framework for regimes that are contemplating project (2001–02), financed by the U.S. Agency for International Develop-
decentralization. This framework, which is based on the ment. E-mail: gguess@osieurope.org.