05 Vulnerability Adaptation

Vulnerability of Iran to Adverse
Impacts of Climate Change

National Climate Change Office
Department of Environment
Islamic Republic of Iran
by:
Mohammad Soltanieh
National Project Manager
National Workshop on
KYOTO PROTOCOL: Challenges and Opportunity
for Sustainable Development of I.R. Iran.
25-26 October, 2003
Tehran, Iran
PRESENTATION OVERVIEW
¾ National circumstances
¾ Long-term projection of temperature and precipitation in
Iran
¾ Impact of response measures by Annex-B countries on the
economy of Iran.
¾ Direct adverse impact of climate change on:
¾ Water resource
¾ Agricultural products and food security
¾ Coastal and low land areas
¾ Public health
¾ Adaptation10/28/03
on Climate www.climate-change.ir
Change 2
National Circumstances (I)
Trend of population growth between 1968-1998(‘000
person)
65000
60000
55000
50000
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
10/28/03 www.climate-change.ir 3
1346 1348 1350 1352 1354 1356 1358 1360 1362 1364 1366 1368 1370 1372 1374 1376 1378
National Circumstances (II)
Trend of urban & rural household between 1968-1998
15000000
12500000
10000000
7500000
Rural
5000000
2500000 Urbun
0
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
13
National Circumstances (III)
Trend of GDP growth by sector (bn. Rials- at constant 1982 prices)
16000
14000
Se rvi ce s
12000
10000 C onstructi on
W ate r,
8000 El e ctri ci ty
and Gas O il
6000
Manufacturi
ng
4000
Mi ni ng
2000
Agri cul ture
0 10/28/03 www.climate-change.ir 5
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
National Circumstances (IV)
Share of different economic sub-sectors in GDP in 1990
(%)
Services
29% Agriculture
29%
Mining
1%
Construction
4%
Manufacturing
15%
Water,
Electricity and O il
10/28/03 Gas www.climate-change.ir
20% 6
2%
National Circumstances (V)
Share of different economic sub-sectors in GDP in 2000
(%)
Agriculture
16%
Mining
1%
Manufacturing
13%
Se rvice s
56% O il
8%
Wate r,
Ele ctricity and
C onstruction Gas
5% 1%
National Circumstances (VI)
Trend of per capita GDP (,000 Rial-constant 1982 prices)
350
310
270
230
190

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
National Circumstances (VII)
Trend of primary energy production, domestic supply, import and
export (MBOE)
Production Import Export Dome stic Supply
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
National Circumstances (VIII)
Trend of energy intensity
(BOE/Mn. Rial - at constant 1982 prices)
Primary Energy Final Energy
56
52
48
44
40
36
32
28
24
20
16
12
1970 10/28/031975 1980www.climate-change.ir
1985 1990 1995 2000 10
National Circumstances (IX)
Share of different sectors in the total energy demand in
2000 (%)
Ag ric ult ure

4% P o we r P la nt s
24%
Tr a n s p o r t
24%
Re f ine ry
4%
In d u s t r y
18%
Co m m e rc ia l
Re s ide nt ia l 5%
21%
Impact of Response Measures
Estimates of adverse effects and the required

compensation are based on the results from four
scenarios:
- Business-as-Usual (BAU),
- Kyoto Protocol with “no flexible mechanisms”
and “no tax adjustment”,
- Kyoto Protocol with “no flexible mechanisms”
and “tax adjustments”, and
- Kyoto Protocol with “flexible mechanisms” and
“no tax adjustment
10/28/03 ”www.climate-change.ir
. 12
Baseline projections for the crude oil market
2010 2020 2030

Baseline world oil price (USD per barrel)
19.2 20.51 22.14
World demand (mbd)
81 97 118
Non-OPEC production (mbd)
44 45 46
OPEC share of world oil production (%)
10/28/03 46www.climate-change.ir54 6113
World crude oil price under the three policy scenarios with
participation of the USA (% change from baseline)
Scenarios 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

No Flexibility
-0.13 -0.09 -15.32 -16.09 -16.48 -17.66 -18.35
Tax Cut
-0.02 0.06 -7.50 -9.54 -9.63 -9.97 -10.29
Flexibility with CDM
-0.09 -0.16 -10.61 -11.33 -11.13 -11.08 -11.16
Impact on Iran’s Economy in “No Flexibility Scenario”
No Flexibility
Revenue losses in 2010 % change in welfare Cash compensation
(Billions of 1995 USD) (Billions of 1995 USD)
With US -6.3 -3.1 79

Without US -1.2 -0.7 20
Impact on Iran’s Economy in “Tax Cut Scenario”
Tax Cut
With US -3 1.76 45
Without US 1.6 0.4 0*
*Zero value indicates that no compensation is needed
Impact on Iran’s Economy in “ Flexibility with CDM Scenario ”
Flexibility with CDM Scenario

With US -4.5 2.2 57

Without US -0.9 -0.52 17
Impact of Response Measures on Iranian Economy (USD billions)
No Fle xibility Tax C ut Fle xibility wi th C DM
2
1.62
1.5
0.5
-0.5
-1
-0.94
10/28/03 -1.24 www.climate-change.ir 18

-1.5
Direct Adverse Impact of Climate
Change
¾ Direct adverse impact of climate change on:
¾Water resource
¾Agricultural products and food security
¾Coastal and low land areas
¾Public health
Long-term projection of temperature
and precipitation in Iran
The selective combinations of two

GCMs (HadCM2 and ECHAM4),
three IPCC emission scenarios, and
three different climate sensitivities,
represent the following temperature
and precipitation changes in long-
term (2100).
Long-term projection of temperature
and precipitation in Iran
Temperature :
• 1°C to 1.5°C at low emission rate.
• 4.1°C to 5°C if the emission rate maintains at the
present level.
• 5.9°C to 7.7°C at high emission rate.
Precipitation:
• -11% to 19.1% of the baselines for low emission rate,
• -30.9% to 50% of the baselines for medium emission
rate,
• -58% to 80% of thewww.climate-change.ir
10/28/03
baselines for high emission rate.
21
Vulnerability (Water resource)
Water balance and total precipitation in the
country (billion cubic meters)
Infiltration(25) Inter Flow(5)

6% 1%
Surface Flow(92)
22%
Evapotranspirati
on
(294)
71%
Vulnerability Assessment
(Water resource)
Sea level rise and infiltration of salt water into underground water
resources
Increased vaporization from the rivers due to higher temperatures which
result in drying out the rivers
Variations in intensity and the magnitude of precipitation (In 53%
of the recorded stations flood index has increased)
Decreased volume and deteriorated water quality of underground
reservoirs due to drought and increased surface vaporization
which result in higher treatment costs
Changes in precipitation from snow to rain and changes in melting
patterns 10/28/03 www.climate-change.ir 23
Vulnerability (Water resource)
Variation of runoff with respect to the variation of
temperature and rainfall in selected main basins
Precipitation (P)
Basin Temp. (T)
Name
-40% -10% P +10% +40%
0 -52.2 -15.2 0.0 16.8 77.2
Aras +1 -53.1 -18.1 -3.8 11.9 68.2
+6 -56.4 -28.4 -17.0 -6.1 34.1
0 -60.7 -18.8 0.0 21.5 102.5
Karkhe +1 -62.3 -23.9 -6.7 12.9 86.9
+6
10/28/03 -67.9 www.climate-change.ir
-41.7 -30 -18.0 28.6
24
Adaptation Measures
(Water resource)
-Water conservation in all sectors
- Integrated ground and surface water management

- Improved operation of reservoirs
- Construction of new dams
- Artificial ground water recharge
- Water reuse and recycling
- Further research and investigation to obtain
hydrological data
Adaptation Measures
(Water resource)
-Construction of low-cost miniature

reservoirs for local irrigation
- Rehabilitation of small tanks in dry zones
- Sound watershed management
-Use of sprinkling and pressurized
irrigation systems
-Water rationing and pricing policies
(Agriculture and Food Security)
Other Irrigated
27% Cultivation
30%
Garden
8% Rain fed
Cultivation
10/28/03 35%
www.climate-change.ir 27
Agriculture and Food Security
■ Since 71% of cultivated land is devoted to grains with

rain irrigation, climate change has significant adverse
impact on food security.
■ Recent droughts have resulted in 52,000 billion Rials
of damage in agricultural sector and 3,600 bilion Rials
in water resources
■ Reduction of job positions in agricultural sector
■ Increased immigration of farmers into the large cities.
Adaptation Measures
(Agriculture and Food Security)
- Historically adaptive [for example: use of underground
canals, or “Ghanats”]
- Development of new crop (early maturing type) varieties
- Deep tillage
- Timeliness of tillage
- Construction of small scale reservoirs and dams
- Enclose the irrigation canals
- Reuse of drainage water
- Pressurized irrigation systems
- Leaching of salt affected soils
Costal Area & Low Land
Caspian sea
Wetland
Others
South Caspian shore
Costal Area & Low Land
Iranian oil platform in the Persian Gulf Ecological sensitive areas of the
Coastal wetland and mud flats (D.O.E., 1993)
(Danehkar et al., 1996) Persian Gulf and Sea of Oman
Marine turtle habitats (Danehkar et al., 1996) (Danehkar & Porvakhshouri, 1997)
Major shrimping ground (D.O.E., 1993)

Waterbird habitat Danehkar et al., 1996) Protected Area
Mangrove forest (D.O.E., 1993) Perl oyster habitat (D.O.E. 1993) Wildlife shelter
Sea grass (D.O.E., 1993) Perl oyster fishing ground (D.O.E., 1993) International wetland
Coral reef islands (D.O.E., 1993) Estunries (Nabavi et al., 1994) Biosphere reserve
Coastal Areas
■ The effects of sea level rise are:
■ Changes in geomorphology of the coastal
areas
■ Damages to oil and gas installations
■ Salt water intrusion into the drinking water
resources
■ Changes in job market and shift to illegal
traffic of goods
(Power Generation)
•Damage to coastal installations for power plant

cooling.
• 2% loss in efficiency caused by 1 C in ambient
temperature and extra cooling load.
• Loss of hydropower output due to lack of water
supply.
• Increase in electricity demand for cooling.
Adaptation Measures
(Power Generation)
Diversification of industrial activities and sources of
foreign revenues.
• Prevention of gas flaring and venting.
• Use of dry cooling systems in power plants.
• Expansion of combined cycles in power plants.
• Development of co-generation.
• Expansion of hydropower capacity.
(Forestry)
- Intensification of forest land erosion, particularly
in the arid and semi-arid areas
- Changes in the hydrological cycles
- Retrogression of forests from the sea and
destruction due to the sea level rise
- Increase of fire danger in forests
- Unsuitable environment for wildlife
Adaptation Measures
(Forestry)
- Rehabilitation, development and treatment of forest
resources
- Afforestation
- Balancing forest harvesting volume with forest
growth and forest ecological capacity
- Forest tree improvement and use of fast growing
species for reforestation
Adaptation Measures
(Forestry)
- Changing the abandoned farm lands to

forests
- Developing wood farming and agro-forestry
system
- Implementation of national plan for “Green
Movement” throughout the country
Vulnerability assessment
Public Health
The following diseases have shown increasing
trend in this country:
Malaria
Leishmaniasis
Cholera
Rodents infection
Vulnerability (Public Health )
Exposure rate to Malaria(left) & Leishmaniasis in recent years
Actual Regression
Actual Regression
145 40
38
Number of Case per 100,000 Person
Number of Case per100,000 Person

125
36
34
105
32
30
85
28
65 26
24
45 10/28/03 22
www.climate-change.ir 39
1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 200

05 Vulnerability Adaptation

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Description:

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

05 Vulnerability Adaptation

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Vulnerability of Iran to Adverse

Impacts of Climate Change

150 10/28/03 www.climate-change.ir 8

Ag ric ult ure

Estimates of adverse effects and the required

2010 2020 2030

Scenarios 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

With US -6.3 -3.1 79

Flexibility with CDM Scenario

With US -4.5 2.2 57

No Fle xibility Tax C ut Fle xibility wi th C DM

10/28/03 -1.24 www.climate-change.ir 18

The selective combinations of two

Infiltration(25) Inter Flow(5)

0 -52.2 -15.2 0.0 16.8 77.2

Aras +1 -53.1 -18.1 -3.8 11.9 68.2

+6 -56.4 -28.4 -17.0 -6.1 34.1

0 -60.7 -18.8 0.0 21.5 102.5

Karkhe +1 -62.3 -23.9 -6.7 12.9 86.9

- Integrated ground and surface water management

-Construction of low-cost miniature

■ Since 71% of cultivated land is devoted to grains with

Major shrimping ground (D.O.E., 1993)

•Damage to coastal installations for power plant

- Changing the abandoned farm lands to

Number of Case per100,000 Person

You might also like