Professional Documents
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Monday 1/14
Tuesday 1/15
4. TRADE-OFFS OF WATER AND POWER: ANALYSIS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE ELECTRIC GRID
UNDER WATER SUBSTITUTION DRIVERS
….. Dr. Steven Fernandez, Research Scientist, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, G. Loren Toole and Marvin L.
Salazar, Los Alamos National Laboratory. (14 pp)
Wednesday 1/16
Thursday 1/17
Friday 1/18
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Infrastructure Risk and Renewal: The Clash of Blue and Green – A PERI Symposium
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Infrastructure Risk and Renewal: The Clash of Blue and Green – A PERI Symposium
I see some general lessons that can be drawn from the analysis
and discussions that have been contributed to this Symposium:
The conflicts between blue and green—security and
sustainability—infrastructure demands are not just
hypothetical. They are real, immediate, tangible, and
already having important practical and financial impacts.
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Infrastructure Risk and Renewal: The Clash of Blue and Green – A PERI Symposium
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Infrastructure Risk and Renewal: The Clash of Blue and Green – A PERI Symposium
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Infrastructure Risk and Renewal: The Clash of Blue and Green – A PERI Symposium
I N F R A S T R U C T U R E R I S K A N D R E N E WA L :
THE CLASH OF BLUE AND GREEN
SYMPOSIUM INTRODUCTION
More of the
Security
Same
Sustainability Resilience
Symposium Introduction 1
Infrastructure Risk and Renewal: The Clash of Blue and Green – A PERI Symposium
The aim of this PERI symposium, then, is to begin illuminating the conflicts
and contradictions between the blue and green infrastructure agendas, as well as
the potential opportunities for positive synergies that might be realized through
better collaboration. The ultimate objective, beyond this initial forum, is to begin
developing a new infrastructure doctrine that can integrate the positive features
of the green and blue architectural agendas while pragmatically resolving
necessary tradeoffs between the two—hence getting to something like a
“turquoise” design theory.
THE CLASH
As I write, the governors of Georgia, Florida, and Alabama are enmeshed in
an increasingly nasty, drought-induced fight over water. The city of Atlanta faces
the dire prospect of its water supplies running dry in less than three months
unless rains return to the parched Southeast. Yet the Army Corps of Engineers
continues to drain a billion gallons of water a day from the city’s main Lanier
reservoir—complying with environmental regulations aimed at protecting
endangered species of mussels and fish downstream in Florida. Compounding
this disastrous clash between urban survival and environmental protection, the
governor of Alabama claims that keeping the water in Georgia will force him to
shut down the Farley nuclear power plant in his state for lack of cooling water—
* While color symbolism varies across cultures and contexts, the color blue—particularly in Western society and as a
corporate color—commonly is identified with trustworthiness, security, safety, law, reliability and such. The contemporary
identification of the color green with environmental and resource conservation interests is, of course, well established.
Symposium Introduction 2
Infrastructure Risk and Renewal: The Clash of Blue and Green – A PERI Symposium
thus either cutting off power to 800,000 homes or shifting their load to an
overburdened power grid.
Coming from a blue perspective, authors Stephen Flynn and Charles Perrow,
in two recent books on infrastructure security, * also worry about the dire risks
posed to national/homeland security by nuclear power—particularly the threat
from an attack or accidental dispersal of its growing, dubiously secure pools of
acutely radioactive wastes.
Also in service of national security, the U.S. and its allies are pressing Iran to
prevent the development of nuclear energy and the potential production of
nuclear weapons in that country. Yet an expatriate Iranian engineering professor
argues that Iran will need nuclear power to reduce its carbon footprint.
Meanwhile, a pending agreement between the U.S., its allies, and North Korea
would reward the latter for dismantling its nuclear energy facilities by
guaranteeing a supply of oil to power Korean electric plants—the parties
evidently willing to trade increased carbon emission to reduce the risk of nuclear
warfare.
Columnist and author Thomas Friedman and former CIA director James
Woolsey are among those who present a case for reducing consumption of
petroleum and natural gas that commingles climate concerns with national
security interests. That is, replacing oil and gas consumption with “renewable” or
nuclear energy could cut the immense flow of money going to countries—in the
Middle East, and perhaps also including Venezuela and Russia—that use their
income from selling these fossil energy sources to threaten American security
interests.
The list of cases in which the blue, security agenda and the green,
environmental agenda entangle, abrade, and often confound can be extended
indefinitely:
* Stephen Flynn, The Edge of Disaster (New York, Random House, 2007); Charles Perrow, The Next Catastrophe (Princeton:
Symposium Introduction 3
Infrastructure Risk and Renewal: The Clash of Blue and Green – A PERI Symposium
Fairfax County, where the fort is located, protested vigorously that the
move would gridlock the area’s already snarled highways with massive
traffic, wasting energy and polluting air already on the bubble of EPA
violations.
Symposium Introduction 4
Infrastructure Risk and Renewal: The Clash of Blue and Green – A PERI Symposium
The clash of such competing interests is not the only dynamic that
undermines the ability of the blue and green agendas to achieve their espoused
goals. In several, often common ways, they tend also to be self-defeating.
Still, the dissonance and competition between the blue and green agendas
only amplifies these self-inflicted liabilities and deters the analysis and dialogue
needed to resolve them.
SYNERGY
The green and blue agendas do not always need to be in conflict. There
even are opportunities for positive synergy. For example, zero-energy
buildings—which generate their own power from sun, wind, or geothermal
sources—could enable police or fire stations, shelters, hospitals,
communications facilities, embassies, and such to keep functioning in the wake
of a disaster even when electrical or fuel supplies are interrupted. “Green
roofs”—composed of soil and vegetation—might, when properly maintained,
make buildings less vulnerable to fire.
Green solutions even may aid military missions. According to recent reports,
U.S. Marine units operating in Anbar province in Iraq are looking to apply solar,
renewable, and recycling technologies on site, to reduce the need for vulnerable
truck convoys to supply fuel and water.
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Infrastructure Risk and Renewal: The Clash of Blue and Green – A PERI Symposium
become more attractive while sustainability could become more truly equivalent
to survivability.
FUTURES
Playing out the churn of security and sustainability imperatives into the future
points to four possible, alternative scenarios, summarized in the chart.
More of the
Security
Same
Sustainability Resilience
The most ambiguous, and likely, is the gray scenario of more of the same
business as usual. Increasingly contentious security, environmental, economic
and cultural demands will produce stalemate, sluggish development,
compromised suboptimal designs, progressive decay, occasional marquee
projects, and periodic disasters followed by ad-hoc responses, proclamations of
ambitious goals, and faltering follow-through.
The most zealous green scenario would sacrifice human security, safety,
prosperity, and even life in pursuit of a bucolic, agrarian, global society subsisting
solely on solar energy and renewable resources. Ultimately, green zealotry will
ruin the environment to protect it—as is happening in Brazil now, where forests
are being cleared to grow “renewable” biofuel to feed engines, ostensibly to help
prevent climate change.
The most ruthless blue scenario would plunder resources, environment, and
human rights in pursuit of a global fortress impervious to attack, disaster, or
human error, and purged of any threat from the darker spirits of human nature.
Blue zealotry already has shown a proclivity to erode democracy to protect it and
to destroy not only villages but whole countries to save them.
economic benefit, (b) environmental benefit, and (c) the broad umbrella of “social responsibility.” The equation of this
metric with “sustainability” is in the sense that the organization protects or at leasts does not degrade the sustainability of its
external environment; not necessarily the sustainability of its own infrastructure, assets, or operations.
Symposium Introduction 6
Infrastructure Risk and Renewal: The Clash of Blue and Green – A PERI Symposium
ISSUES
To begin working toward reconciling blue and green infrastructure
imperatives, the PERI Symposium will address several initial, core issues:
3. Economics. What are the relative risks, costs, and benefits of competing
blue and green agendas for infrastructure renewal? What capital
resources are available to meet either or both demands? How reliable is
the accounting for the risks, costs, and benefits of each? What accounting
improvements are needed?
4. Real politics. What are the actual political interests and conflicts
surrounding the blue and green policy agendas? What specific initiatives
are most likely and least likely to be politically do-able?
While the real costs and potential benefits of the green agenda just for
“climate protection”—mitigating the expected future impacts of global warming—
are debated, even the more modest estimates imply infrastructure renovation
costs to the U.S. on a similar scale of hundreds of billions of dollars annually.
All this comes at a time when David Walker, Comptroller General of the
United States (the nation’s chief financial officer), warns that America now stands
Symposium Introduction 7
Infrastructure Risk and Renewal: The Clash of Blue and Green – A PERI Symposium
Walker and others explain that closing the gap between inadequate revenues
and the cost of existing government commitments will require some combination
of massive tax increases and drastic reductions in promised benefits. And the
burden of federal insolvency is bound not just to trickle but cascade down to state
and local governments and ultimately all taxpayers.
Blue and green optimists would like to believe that America is rich enough to
pay the price tag for each of their agendas simultaneously—and that there is no
“zero-sum game” between the demands for greater security and sustainability.
But the warnings from Walker and others suggest that the country may be hard
pressed to pay for either. It clearly cannot afford duplicative, contradictory, or
wasteful efforts.
Symposium Introduction 8
Infrastructure Risk and Renewal: The Clash of Blue and Green – A PERI Symposium
The Public Entity Risk Institute provides these materials "as is," for educational
and informational purposes only, and without representation, guarantee or
warranty of any kind, express or implied, including any warranty relating to the
accuracy, reliability, completeness, currency or usefulness of the content of this
material. Publication and distribution of this material is not an endorsement by
PERI, its officers, directors or employees of any opinions, conclusions or
recommendations contained herein. PERI will not be liable for any claims for
damages of any kind based upon errors, omissions or other inaccuracies in the
information or material contained here.
***
Symposium Introduction 9
Infrastructure Risk and Renewal: The Clash of Blue and Green – A PERI Symposium
While two wrongs rarely make something right, two rights may in fact be in
conflict with one another. Taken to their extreme, each may counter the positive
impacts of the other.
Such is the debate that is coming to life as individual communities and regions
start to grapple with issues of environmental sustainability (the “green” agenda)
alongside issues of security from all forms of disasters or attacks (the “blue”
agenda).
For most of the existence of the United States we have lived a life of plenty.
Our natural resources seemed inexhaustible: abundant forests, plentiful water
and land that literally does stretch from sea to shining sea. It is only in the last
fifty years or so that our consumption of resources and expansion of our
population began to come in conflict with one another. Even the oceans, which
seemed to take everything we could toss into them, do not appear to be as
resilient as we once thought.
There are limits to everything and today we appear to be straining to find the
resources not only for today, but are becoming worried about tomorrow. Some
are concerned about the ability of future generations of Americans to enjoy life,
with economic vitality and a land that was once plentiful, but may be stretched to
provide even the very basics of what we need to survive—clean, drinkable water,
and air that is safe to breathe.
As one of the primary roles of any government is to protect its citizens, a new
urgency emerged after the 9/11 terrorist attacks to take measures to better
protect our nation. Given the openness of our society the potential for terrorists
to do harm to people and infrastructure is significant in the United States.
Since 2003, billions of dollars have been spent here in the United States on a
combination of measures to provide for a more secure America. A substantial
share of those expenditures has been focused on threats associated with
weapons of mass destruction (WMD). A significant amount of money has been
allocated to providing equipment for first responders at all levels of government
to manage WMD threats. While the allocation of funds between states and
jurisdictions has been hotly debated over the years, few question the
appropriateness of properly equipping our first responders to protect themselves
and to allow them to function in a WMD environment.
Advocates for Green and Blue each look at how funding is being spent in
various programs and question, “Is that the wisest use of the funds? Could we
not do more for our ‘_____’ if we had the funds being spent on ‘_____? How we
allocate time and resources to address Green versus Blue issues is the crux of
the matter.
Sustainability
Sustainability in another era might have been called maintenance. Today
sustainability evokes images of being environmentally friendly, going “green” and
all that it entails, from energy efficiency to recycling, and husbanding of our
natural resources.
The green movement has brought with it a recognition that our natural
resources are not unlimited. Yet another “green” category that is finite is the
amount of funding that is available for public and private projects.
Throughout the United States road and bridge systems are crumbling. In the
East, older infrastructure systems are nearing or have surpassed their average
life spans. With strong public pressure to keep taxes low, one easy and invisible
cut to public system budgets has been maintenance. In many cases, public
agencies and jurisdictions have deferred maintenance to the point where our
maintenance strategy appears to be fix or replace only on failure.
One challenge to this “fix-on-failure” strategy is that when the costs of deferred
maintenance come due, the substantial bill for repairs and reconstruction well
may be compounded by the potential loss of lives as well as the economic costs
of business interruption following infrastructure failures and through the period
needed to replace or restore these structures.
In replacing infrastructure there will be those arguing for it to be done in a
sustainable manner. And there will be those agreeing with the concept, but also
advocating a strategy to build the infrastructure to new standards to face natural
hazards that are better understood now than they were at the time of original
construction—seismic risk being but one example. (Modern seismic standards
for bridges, for instance, only date from the early 1970s.)
In the Seattle area, there is a classic confrontation that has been ongoing since
the Nisqually Earthquake of 2001 exposed the weakened condition of the
Alaskan Way Viaduct that runs north-south through the city and is one of only
three such north-south routes spanning the Central Puget Sound area. All of
these three routes are exceeding the traffic capacity for which they were
designed. Loss of any one of those routes will cause traffic congestion in the
region that exceeds the ability of people and business to function with any sense
of normality. The viaduct is an elevated structure which exists in a weakened
state that requires the Washington State Department of Transportation to close it
twice a year in order to assess its condition and make critical repairs.
How to replace the viaduct has been the topic of (so far) interminable debate.
The proposed alternatives have included: another elevated structure, a surface
solution, a dig and cover tunnel approach, eliminating the route all together, and
most recently a “deep” tunnel option has been proposed. While the estimated
costs of replacing the roadway is perhaps the most debated aspect of the entire
discussion, there are other forces at play.
Livable Communities
Making modern communities livable has been a major thrust of urban design.
There is a resurgence in our urban centers as large cities revitalize their urban
cores. People are once again living in urban villages that at their heart have
condos, and all the amenities of restaurants, shopping, and the arts. These
urban centers allow people to live near their places of employment and allow a
much higher density of people and services. The suburban sprawl is contained
and families can “survive” with only one car or even none because they have
access to mass transit for their transportation needs.
One’s carbon footprint is drastically reduced by living and working in such an
urban center when compared to the suburban dream that dominated our post-
World War II culture. There are no green lawns that must be mowed each week
with carbon polluting lawn mowers, the commute is reduced, single occupancy
vehicle commutes eliminated, heating and cooling larger buildings is more
efficient, etc.
potentially have greater natural hazard risks that will impact larger segments of
populations and their infrastructure than most of the interior areas of the nation.
Hurricanes, earthquakes, and the associated tsunami waves are three of the
most devastating natural hazards our coastal communities face. With climate
change, rising sea levels will over time provide a multiplication factor to storm
surge brought on by hurricanes.
Scientists predict that a category four hurricane would cause a 20-foot storm
surge over John F. Kennedy airport in New York. A major hurricane that hit New
York City in 1938 caused damage valued at some $18 billion in today’s currency;
the loss from a similarly severe storm striking the city in the near future has been
estimated at close to $50 billion. The probability of such a disaster occurring in
New York sometime in the next 50 years is about 25 percent.
As we concentrate our populations into these dense urban areas, the impacts
of disasters will become much more severe. The modern infrastructure required
to support these urban centers is at its core the vulnerable aspect of the
economic well being of the city. Without a functioning transportation, water,
communications or electrical power system the economy of a region will grind to
a halt.
Additionally, we are building and maintaining systems that operate daily at or
near peak demand. The flexibility and adaptability of systems is being eroded as
public and private sectors cut costs in the attempt to become leaner and more
efficient.
Redundancy is not valued until there is a systems failure. When looking to cut
costs from a project the areas that are first to be sacrificed are excess capacity
and redundant systems—just those that provide flexibility to meet demands that
are outside the spectrum of “normal” daily operations.
As we continue to pile people and our economic eggs into larger economic
zones we are becoming a nation at risk of losing large urban areas to a future
catastrophe. What happened in New Orleans will be but a shadow of what is to
come when an urban center that is an economic engine to the nation takes a
serious natural disaster hit.
Urban centers are becoming geographically larger and are pushing out of their
traditional urban settings into suburban and even rural areas. A case in point
would be the development of the Kent-Auburn Valley in the Seattle metropolitan
area. These valley areas were once home to farms that sustained the region in
the first half of the last century. Now the farms are gone and large tilt-up
warehouses are being planted instead. Cheaper land values have led to an
economic boom in light industrial development in the region.
Being in a valley, farmers sought to protect their agricultural lands from
repeated flood events and over time built many miles of levees that line multiple
river systems in the region. These flood protection structures which were built 80
to 100 years ago were sufficient to protect agricultural lands, but are now in
danger of failing every year during flood events. They no longer protect crops
worth thousands of dollars, but now protect business investments and critical
infrastructure worth tens of millions of dollars.
The “green” solution would be to eliminate the levee systems, releasing the
rivers and letting them return to their natural meandering ways—which would be
ideal for the protection of endangered salmon species that occupy the river
systems.
Given the development that has occurred over time this is not economically
possible. In fact, just finding the public funds to repair and maintain the existing
flood-control structures will prove difficult.
A new King County Flood Control District has been put in place to fix these
discrepancies. However, it will take ten years of funding to accomplish the work.
Timing repairs so as not to impact spawning fish species further limits the timely
repair of flood damaged levee systems from one year to the next.
Meanwhile the risks created by the flood hazard continue to escalate. The
estimates for global warming in the Northwest predict larger and more frequent
rain and substantial flood events of the type that puts increased strain on the
levees. Just this year, Lewis County, Washington, experienced a two-hundred-
year flood with levees failing and being overtopped. There were scenes
reminiscent of Hurricane Katrina, with people being rescued from their rooftops.
This followed a hundred-year flood 13 months ago.
Balanced Approach
There has been a polarizing of American opinions and view points across the
spectrum of human activities. There are the economic haves and the have-nots,
people with healthcare and those without. Education is clearly a discriminator
within our society. Citizen and immigrant communities are seen as being in
conflict with one another. Even our states have been color coded into blue and
red when considering political party strengths. Which leads us to wonder: Is this
what must happen in the blue-green debate? In the future, will we have a map of
the United States with blue and green states categorized on how they are
perceived?
Do we have to resort to a polarization of opinions in how we approach our
collective future? Can we achieve a more coordinated and better future by
collaborating for the sake of our local communities and regions? Does it have to
come to a fight?
The first step in an amicable process will have to be the establishment of an
ongoing relationship between the two efforts to protect people and resources.
Both have admirable goals that do not have to be mutually exclusive. For
example, improving air traffic management infrastructure at the nation’s airports
will reduce delays, cut carbon emissions, and make it easier to respond to a
security crisis; thus serving both blue and green purposes. Finding similar
opportunities to simultaneously contribute to blue and green goals could provide
the basis for relationships that can lead to a true dialogue and potential
compromise and ultimately trust between proponents of the two philosophies.
He has also authored numerous articles for professional journals and opinion
pieces for local, regional and national newspapers. An experienced and
accomplished public speaker he is sought after to present at national and regional
conferences.
Prior to joining ICF he was a local emergency management director for King
County Washington which is the metropolitan Seattle area. In this position he
established the King County Office of Emergency Management as a national leader
in many areas emergency management and homeland security. In 2005 King
County was given a national award by the National Association of Counties (NACo)
for establishing a “Regional Approach to Homeland Security.” Additionally, the 9/11
Commission recognized the King County Regional Disaster Response Plan as a
“Best Practice” for integrating the private business sector into community-wide
disaster planning.
Melinda Harris is a senior economist and project manager with ICF Consulting.
Over the past 20 years, Ms. Harris has developed expertise in a broad range of
environmental and economic policy issues and has more than 10 years of
experience managing large scale projects and contracts for clients in the public
and private sectors. She has directed large teams of subject area experts drawn
from government, academia, research organization, and environmental NGOs.
Her background includes analyses of the impacts of global warming on important
sectors of the U.S. economy, including work in the areas of human health
impacts, impacts of climate change on the amenity value of climate, and sea
level rise implications for U.S. coastal communities. In the past three years, a
significant portion of her project work has entailed addressing issues relating to
adaptation to climate change. She directed and participated materially in several
global change related projects for USAID and was one of the primary authors of
GCRP’s synthesis report on the interim results of three place-based
assessments. Her project work has also included evaluating GHG mitigation and
stabilization policy, the use of market-based mechanisms in environmental
policy, and she is one of ICF International’s in-house experts on emissions
trading.
The Public Entity Risk Institute provides these materials "as is," for educational
and informational purposes only, and without representation, guarantee or
warranty of any kind, express or implied, including any warranty relating to the
accuracy, reliability, completeness, currency or usefulness of the content of this
material. Publication and distribution of this material is not an endorsement by
PERI, its officers, directors or employees of any opinions, conclusions or
recommendations contained herein. PERI will not be liable for any claims for
damages of any kind based upon errors, omissions or other inaccuracies in the
information or material contained here.
***
Potential clashes between environmental protection work and homeland security work along
the U.S.-Mexico border have an added dimension -- the presence of an international boundary
line. Source: Environmental Protection and Border Security on the U.S.-Mexico Border: Tenth
Report of the Good Neighbor Environmental Board to the President and Congress of the United
States, March 2007 p.5.
■■■
The effects of such security measures on environmental quality in the border
region are analyzed in a March 2007 bilingual report titled “Environmental
Protection and Border Security on the U.S.-Mexico Border.” 6 Produced by a
Presidential advisory group called the Good Neighbor Environmental Board (the
GNEB), its Tenth Report is the latest of its annual reports to the President and
Congress on the status of environmental conditions in border communities. The
GNEB was created under federal legislation in 1992 to provide advice on how the
federal government can most effectively support U.S. residents of the border
region in their efforts to create a healthy environment in their communities.
In its report, the GNEB examines the intersection of environmental protection
work and border security work in two types of locations: isolated rural settings,
and congested urban border crossings. In each case, it identifies a specific set
of potential clashes as well as strategies to minimize the clashes and maximize
the collaboration.
According to the report’s findings, a significant portion of undocumented
migrants and smugglers now attempt to make their crossing in the more rural
portions of the region. This shift is the result of improved inspection technology at
the ports of entry and more effective enforcement strategies in cities. To address
this shift, border security activities in rural areas are intensifying dramatically.
Much of this phenomenon is occurring on public land managed by agencies such
as the Department of the Interior National Park Service and the U.S. Department
of Agriculture Forest Service. It also is occurring on private land and on tribal
land, including tribal land that spans both sides of the border. One such example
is the Tohono O’odham Nation in Arizona.
Within the rural scene, there are three primary groups of actors—
undocumented crossers; the security agencies charged with apprehending them;
and the environmental protection agencies that seek to mitigate damage from the
other two groups. And the nexus of these three groups produces mixed
environmental results, says the GNEB.
For instance, although the Border Patrol’s chase vehicles may create unofficial
paths and roads that are prone to erosion and may damage sensitive
ecosystems, undocumented migrants and smugglers also may cause
environmental damage. Under these circumstances, risks to the environment can
be reduced if undocumented crossers are apprehended quickly and, therefore,
prevented from leaving behind tons of trash and abandoned vehicles as well as
creating their own unofficial paths.
Another example of security work bringing about environmental benefits cited
by the GNEB is the story of the return of the endangered, lesser long-nosed bats:
Initially driven from their national wildlife refuge cave by smugglers who decided
to use it for themselves, the bats subsequently returned after border security was
tightened and the smugglers fled the scene.
In other cases, however, the potential negative environmental impacts of
security activities along the border are much more straightforward. One such
instance is the erection of physical barriers. “Fences may disrupt hydrologic
patterns, causing flooding and erosion,” says the GNEB. “Wildlife migration
routes and territories for some species may be truncated, fragmenting habitats
and causing declines in region populations of large animals such as deer, black
bear, pronghorn antelope, mountain lions, and jaguar, as well as small animals
such as snakes, lizards, turtles, and foxes. Migratory birds, as well as bird and
mammal breeding behavior, will be affected by lights associated with fences in
some areas.” 7
To minimize risk both to the environment and to security, the GNEB calls for
several actions:
• Strengthen communication and collaboration between security agencies
and environmental protection agencies, including land management
agencies, on both sides of the border. Early and ongoing cooperation will
contribute to effective solutions that serve the core agency missions of
both types of agencies, while also addressing quality of life concerns. (For
instance, assembling border fencing in one location on a wildlife refuge
rather than another that is more ecologically sensitive can help to
minimize environmental damage.)
• Strategically employ a mix of technology and personnel to meet the
security and environmental needs of different sections of the border
region. Vehicle barriers (unlike solid fencing used as pedestrian barriers,
vehicle barriers are a series of intersecting struts that permit some wildlife
migration) and sensor technology (rather than physical fencing) are two
examples of employing a strategic approach. 8
Security within the U.S.-Mexico border region often takes the form of physical barriers. Source:
Environmental Protection and Border Security on the U.S.-Mexico Border: Tenth Report of the
Good Neighbor Environmental Board to the President and Congress of the United States, March
2007, p.4.
■■■
The GNEB is not the only group that has delved into the U.S.-Mexico border
security/border environment conundrum. Defenders of Wildlife, a 500,000
member strong national environmental organization dedicated to preserving the
nation’s native wildlife species and habitats, released a report in 2006 called On
the Line: The Impacts of Immigration Policy on Wildlife and Habitat in the Arizona
Borderlands. 10 The document focuses largely on the Arizona borderlands, in
particular Arizona’s two largest wilderness areas: the Cabeza Prieta National
Wildlife Refuge and the Organ Pipe Cactus National Monument. The Defenders’
report found, too, that immigrant traffic and border patrol activities have severely
damaged these areas in ways that could take decades to repair. Besides
broadly recommending greater care for the environmental impacts of border
security activities, the report called for the use of advanced technology—such as
high-tech surveillance equipment—and innovative construction designs to
minimize environmental damage.
Academia also continues to weigh in on the topic, one example being the
Southwest Consortium for Environmental Research and Policy (SCERP).
Founded in 1989, SCERP is a collaboration of five U.S. and five Mexican
universities located in all ten border states. The five U.S. universities are Arizona
State University, New Mexico State University, San Diego State University, the
University of Texas at El Paso, and the University of Utah. The Mexican
universities are El Colegio de la Frontera Norte, Instituto Tecnológico de Ciudad
Juárez, Instituto Tecnológico y de Estudios Superiores de Monterrey,
Universidad Autónoma de Baja California, and Universidad Autónoma de Ciudad
Juárez.
In September 2007, SCERP hosted the latest in its series of think-tank-style
policy institutes, Border Institute IX. The theme was “Security, Development, and
the Environment in the Binational U.S.-Mexican Border Region.” Co-sponsors
included the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; la Secretaría de Medio
Ambiente y Recursos Naturales de México (Mexico’s environmental agency), the
Border Trade Alliance, and the U.S.-Mexico Chamber of Commerce.
The springboard for discussion was the following framework question: How can
security concerns at the border be harmonized with the transborder region’s
need for environmental quality and sustainable development? Draft proceedings
from the event suggest that forthcoming recommendations may include concepts
such as linking “green infrastructure” to security. Green infrastructure is defined
as the network of open space, woodlands, wildlife habitat, parks, and other
undeveloped areas that sustain clean air, water and natural resources and
provide a highly under-appreciated form of security that is vital to human life.
Earlier in the year, SCERP had laid the groundwork for Border Institute IX by
co-hosting a conference in Washington, D.C. on January 30th with the Center for
Strategic and International Studies titled, “Perspectives on Security and the
Environment in the Binational U.S.-Mexican Border Region.”
One of the more stimulating presentations was by Dr. Carlos de la Parra, a
professor at El Colegio de la Frontera Norte in Tijuana. In his paper, “The
Endnotes
1
U.S.-Mexico Environmental Program: Border 2012 Implementation and Mid-Term Report: 2007, U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency, EPA-909-R-06-005.
2
P.L. 109-13, Emergency Supplemental Appropriations Act for Defense, the Global War on Terror, and
Tsunami Relief, 2005.
3
Department of Homeland Security Fact Sheet: Secure Border Initiative, Release Date: 11/02/05.
4
DHS Press Briefing by Secretary of Homeland Security Michael Chertoff and Boeing CEO of Integrated
Defense Systems Jim Albaugh on the Awarding of the SBInet Contract, Release Date: September 21, 2006
5
Fact Sheet: Select Department of Homeland Security 2007 Achievements, Release Date: December 12,
2007: “Protecting the Nation from Dangerous People.”
6
“Environmental Protection and Border Security on the U.S.-Mexico Border: Tenth Report of the Good
Neighbor Environmental Board to the President and Congress of the United States,”, EPA 130-R-07-003,
March 2007.
7
Ibid, p. 22.
8
Ibid, p.17.
9
Ibid, p.27.
10
"On the Line: The Impacts of Immigration Policy on Wildlife and Habitat in the Arizona Borderlands,"
Principal Author: Brian P. Segee, Staff Attorney, Defenders of Wildlife.
11
http://www.csis.org/images/stories/Americas/070130_border_parra.pdf.
12
United States-Mexico Border Program: An Analysis of Program Impacts and Pending Needs, Prepared
by the Border Environment Cooperation Commission, April 2007, p.1
13
“Environmental Protection and Border Security on the U.S.-Mexico Border”, pp.9-10.
The Public Entity Risk Institute provides these materials "as is," for educational
and informational purposes only, and without representation, guarantee or
warranty of any kind, express or implied, including any warranty relating to the
accuracy, reliability, completeness, currency or usefulness of the content of this
material. Publication and distribution of this material is not an endorsement by
PERI, its officers, directors or employees of any opinions, conclusions or
recommendations contained herein. PERI will not be liable for any claims for
damages of any kind based upon errors, omissions or other inaccuracies in the
information or material contained here.
***
By: Dr. Steven Fernandez, Research Scientist, Oak Ridge National Laboratory,
G. Loren Toole and Marvin L. Salazar, Los Alamos National Laboratory
Abstract
Fresh water and electric power supplies are connected in ways that make them
virtually substitutable commodities. Both water and energy are frequently
transported considerable distances, and their transport systems are integrally
connected. Power systems use fresh water in the course of electricity production,
and electric power is used for water delivery and management. Thus, the impact
on water resources and their quality by the evolution of the electric power grid is
a potential area for clashes between blue and green policies.
Proposals for the needed investment in the nation’s transmission corridors over
the next 20 years have long strived to assure the blue objectives that the national
electric grid is safe, reliable, resilient, and operated efficiently and economically.
These investments have been proposed based on (1) cost/benefit analyses and
(2) stability, reliability, and resilience of the resulting grid. However, only recently
have these blue considerations been balanced against the additional green
benefits that could arise from transporting high volumes of power from
geographic areas or generation locations that are not dependent on net fresh
water withdrawals.
Provided that power is produced either in areas of abundant water resources or
using generation technologies that are inherently low water consumers (wind,
solar, dry-cooled thermal), efficiently transmitting power to areas with limited
water resources and substituting for locally produced power can ease water
demand through long-distance, high-volume, power transmission.
However, the capacity of the current transmission grid to wheel this power to
chronically dry areas is limited by transmission system bottlenecks needed for
safety and reliability. These bottlenecks in the transmission system were
purposely designed to assure that disruptions and blackouts started in one part
of the grid do not spread throughout the other parts of the grid.
We will examine in this paper how the national grid might benefit from
investments that could efficiently ship power through the transmission system of
the Western Electric Coordinating Council under water-substitution drivers.
A key finding of our analysis is that achieving “green” goals of reducing water
consumption and increasing reliance on renewable energy sources is likely to
conflict with the “blue” goals of improving the resilience and reliability of the
critical, power-transmission grid.
INTRODUCTION
By modifying and applying current infrastructure and system modeling and
simulation tools, one can provide science-based recommendations for future
U.S. electric power transmission upgrades. These improvements can increase
the availability of imported power to these areas without sacrificing energy
reliability and still reduce transmission costs. These tools have been used to
analyze the few known critical transmission bottlenecks in the absence of new
water-based requirements and to explore optimal configurations for transmission.
To examine how the national grid might benefit from investments that could
efficiently ship power to water-constrained areas, we used a model of the
Western Electric Coordinating Council transmission system that is resident in a
suite of decision-support tools. This model contained more than 17,000 nodes
and links and identified the key power-import points to the electric grid (marked in
the figure above with green boxes).
These import points intentionally have low transmission capacity, to promote grid
stability. They have served safety and reliability planners well over the years.
However, because these inter-ties are low-capacity connections, they would be
the first area to look for conflicts over balancing reliability against strengthening
the grid’s ability to transmit power to areas of water stress.
There is considerable controversy about whether imported power can be
increased without sacrificing electricity reliability or increasing transmission costs.
Our analysis of the grid attempted to determine if the increase in imported power
could be accomplished without sacrificing electricity reliability, and still reduce
transmission costs. The goal of this task was to analyze transmission
bottlenecks—currently known and likely to arise—in the Western Electric
Coordinating Council (WECC) system, and determine where improvements are
required as well as the investments needed to implement them.
We analyzed four scenarios, incorporating different green proposals related to
using power transmission as a factor for water management in the West. The
first scenario is the baseline case, where the growth of electric power demand
follows the WECC’s current projections through the year 2025. (Although
WECC currently projects only 10 years, we extrapolated from the WECC plan for
the subsequent decade.)
The second scenario places all new generation growth at the current location of
WECC nuclear generation plants. This corresponds to the addition of dry-cooling
nuclear generation and will identify those bottlenecks associated with moving the
power from these additional generation locations to the areas of increased
electrical demand.
The third scenario assumes that 25% of the required power is mandated to be
supplied by renewable generation technologies. Because the grid would be
required to transmit power generated from centralized power stations, it is likely
that the location of this additional generation will be in areas of maximum
potential for wind-driven power. So we analyzed the bottlenecks to shipping the
power from these areas of maximum wind potential to areas of increased
demand.
In the fourth scenario, we analyzed the ability to import electricity from areas
outside the WECC region to the areas of highest demand.
2015 Scenario 1
Displayed above and highlighted in blue are the lines loaded to over 150 percent
of their rated capacity (bold blue color) for scenario 1 (business as usual) by the
Year 2015. The major areas where additional capacity is required in the
transmission system are in the areas around Tucson and Phoenix, Northern New
Mexico, and Eastern Idaho. These areas are in the vicinity of the power import
points that were illustrated earlier and these capacity limitations are well known
to power planners.
2025 Scenario 1
By 2025, the baseline
case develops additional
overloads extendind\g
along the North-South
New Mexico corridor,
West of Denver and in
the Pacific Northwest
West of Spokane.
By 2025, these overloaded lines further increase the need for additional capacity.
However, the lines are concentrated in about the same geographic locations. In
this baseline, the new investments will be required in the south and eastern
quadrants of the WECC service region.
2015 Scenario 2
By 2015 under this scenario,
additional congestion is
developed north of Phoenix, in
Eastern Wyoming, and the
corridor north of Idaho Falls
extending into Montana. In
this scenario, we begin to see
capacity limitations
transmitting power between
the Pacific Northwest and
Northern California.
The locations of these nuclear power generation stations are concentrated in the
Western ring of California, Oregon and Washington. By 2015 under this
scenario, additional congestion develops north of Phoenix, in Eastern Wyoming,
and the corridor north of Idaho Falls extending into Montana. In this scenario, we
begin to see capacity limitations to transmitting power between the Pacific
Northwest and Northern California. These represent the major lines for exporting
power out of California to the east.
2025 Scenario 2
By 2025 within this scenario,
Wyoming corridors, the
Phoenix and Tucson areas ,
and the Four Corners
generation areas have
increased capacity limitations.
In Eastern Idaho and the
Pacific Northwest corridors
continue to show additional
limitations.
By 2025 within this scenario, the Wyoming corridors, the Phoenix and Tucson
areas, and the Four Corners generation areas have increased capacity
limitations. In Eastern Idaho and the Pacific Northwest, corridors continue to
show additional limitations. Overall, the power that needs to be “wheeled” around
the transmission system from the Western area into the eastern half of the
WECC “loop” is greater than the capacity of the transmission system. By 2025,
additional investments would be required to strengthen almost all of the power
import points identified earlier.
2015 Scenario 3
2025 Scenario 3
DC Interties
Voltage (kV)
Area of Power
Generation
Decrease Overload
BLUE-GREEN TRADESPACE
As shown in the Table below, the estimated costs of making the investments in
the transmission system under the four scenarios vary between less than one
billion dollars in most cases to a little less than six billion dollars in the case of
upgrading the transmission system in the areas of maximum wind generation. In
any of the cases, these investments are quite modest compared to the
investments planned for the increased resilience and reliability of the electric grid.
However, the impacts of the clash between safety and reliability and water
substitutions will extend beyond the direct investment in the transmission grid.
On the electricity supply side, the examined changes will affect generation and
transmission costs resulting in changes in spot electricity prices that, in turn, will
affect wholesale and retail electricity rates.
These changes will also affect water costs in the western United States. As
transmission feasibility affects the choice of generation mode it will impact fuel
costs. Moving from water-intensive electricity generation will likely change the
fuel mix for electricity generation.
The shift towards less water-intensive electricity generation will also have
environmental impacts, including impacts on water quality and air quality. To the
extent that the proposed investments decrease demand for local hydroelectric
power generation, they could lead possibly to positive, downstream,
environmental and ecological impacts. To the extent that these changes affect
the regional distribution of hydroelectric power generation, changing dam
operations could have impacts on downstream water supply and quality, and
could have additional impacts on downstream ecosystems as well as impacts on
recreational uses of the downstream environment.
As we discussed earlier, these transmission investments will degrade the
inherent stability of the grid. Disturbances in one area of the grid will be much
more difficult to isolate now that the inter-ties are more robust. Once the inherent
passive stopgaps have been designed out of the system, there will need to be a
greater emphasis on the development and deployment of “smart” grid
technologies that allow system operators to use active measures to detect,
mitigate, and recover from disturbances.
The tradespace between blue and green solutions is sure to be played out
repeatedly as the electric transmission grid evolves over the next 20 years.
The Public Entity Risk Institute provides these materials "as is," for educational
and informational purposes only, and without representation, guarantee or
warranty of any kind, express or implied, including any warranty relating to the
accuracy, reliability, completeness, currency or usefulness of the content of this
material. Publication and distribution of this material is not an endorsement by
PERI, its officers, directors or employees of any opinions, conclusions or
recommendations contained herein. PERI will not be liable for any claims for
damages of any kind based upon errors, omissions or other inaccuracies in the
information or material contained here.
***
INTRODUCTION
This paper will address the roles of telework as a synergetic solution that can
contribute:
• environmental benefits—less pollution, saving energy, etc.;
• societal benefits—work/life balance, reduced stress, etc.;
• benefits for greater infrastructure resilience—better continuity of
operations (in the public sector), better business continuity (in the private
sector); and
• an overall reduced vulnerability to both naturally occurring disasters and
man-made incidents that affect large segments of the population.
An initial motivator on the corporate side was compliance with the Clean Air
Act—fewer cars on the roads meant less pollution. The reduction in traffic
congestion was seen as an added benefit. Then there was the realization by
employees that they were able to have more time for themselves and their
families because they no longer had to spend time sitting in their cars or on
public transportation. There was a better work/life balance. And their costs
relating to commuting were reduced: gas costs went down as they had to fill their
tanks less frequently, parking costs were eliminated on telecommuting days,
wear and tear on their vehicles was less, and even dry cleaning bills were
reduced.
Employers found bottom-line benefits, including: reduced real estate costs and
the ability to grow the business without the need for additional office space,
higher employee morale with increased retention, easier recruiting with the ability
*
©The Telework Coalition, 2008
One point to note before proceeding: The benefits that have been mentioned and
those that will be discussed are cumulative. One benefit does not replace
another; they all come with the implementation of a well thought-out program
incorporating the necessary policies, processes and procedures.
Things progressed at a steady pace in the telework space until 9/11. Then, all of
a sudden, many people didn’t want to spend all of their time confined to a high-
rise office building; employers saw the necessity of distributing their intellectual
capital and divesting their personnel vulnerabilities, and there were new thoughts
concerning just what business continuity, continuity of operations, disaster
avoidance, and disaster recovery meant. Prior to 9/11 these were usually
thought of as what had to be done if there was a fire in the offices. Now terrorism
was included in the mix.
Over the following several years, additional factors added to this concern of
continuity and contingency planning. Hurricanes Katrina and Rita showed a
previously understated vulnerability to the affects of weather on the business
community; SARS and the possibility of a worldwide avian flu pandemic present
an entirely different yet even more frightening scenario. Events such as subway
bombings in Europe, a transit strike in New York, a collapsed bridge between
Minneapolis and St. Paul, and ever growing traffic congestion brought out even
more concerns.
Then there are increasing gas prices that are starting to affect the ability of many
workers to drive long distances to get to work. There are a growing number of
disabled workers, including troops returning from Iraq and Afghanistan that need
to be incorporated into the workforce. The graying of America is threatening to
create a skilled labor shortage as many of our brightest and smartest workers
from the baby-boom generation approach retirement. (The federal government
estimates that 40% of their workforce will be eligible to retire by 2010.) All of
these have a common thread: with new and ever more potent technologies, work
can be brought to people instead of people having to go to their jobs.
And, coming full circle, we are back to concerns for our environment including
global warming, melting ice caps, and air and water pollution. For the first time in
a long time, employers are looking at telework not just as something that might
increase bottom-line benefits, but as a way to address these concerns as well.
The Environment
It appears that a considerable share of the Earth’s environmental problems are a
direct result of the increased burning of carbon fuels with byproducts of carbon
dioxide, carbon monoxide, and other volatile organic compounds.
There are a couple of ways to address this problem. One is to immediately stop
driving cars with internal combustion engines. This is, of course, impractical. It
will be many years until there is an alternative that will be used by a majority of
drivers that will make a significant difference.
Infrastructure Resilience
Whatever you call it, it’s needed if you want to have a comprehensive Continuity
of Operations (COOP) or Business Continuity Plan (BCP). Dealing with the
inability of personnel to access the workplace is an often neglected part of these
programs. Our informal surveys have found that less that half of the
organizations with whom we spoke had incorporated telework into their plans.
Employers go to great lengths to back up their data and infrastructure, but the
inability of workers to get to either their offices or other assigned, alternate work
locations—whether the offices are destroyed or rendered unusable, or the staff
itself might be quarantined—will have a devastating impact on an organization’s
ability to survive.
For example, a transit workers’ strike in New York City on December 20, 2005,
shut down service on all of the city’s subways and buses. Though the strike
lasted only two days, the local economy lost an estimated $400 million a day, in
addition to the cost to the city government of $22 million in lost tax revenue and
overtime pay for police. Investment Technology Group, Inc., a specialized
brokerage and technology firm headquartered in the city was able to endure the
strike at little cost by relying on its established telework infrastructure. ITG
employees who were unable to get to the office simply logged into the firm’s
virtual private network (VPN) and, using the tools and data accessible through
the VPN portal, continued to conduct business as usual.
Similarly, on June 30, 2006, a severe storm sent a wall of water up to four feet
high streaming down Constitution Avenue in Washington, DC, ultimately filling
the sub-basement and basement of the Internal Revenue Service’s
headquarters’ building with up to 24 feet of water. Although many computers and
files were destroyed, along with other office furnishings and equipment, the IRS’s
constellation of remote data servers was unaffected. Activating its Enterprise
Remote Access Project VPN, along with its business resumption plan, the IRS
maximized reliance on telework and telecommuting to allow its staff to continue
performing its duties during the nearly six months that its headquarters was
closed for repairs.
We need to follow the lead of employers who have established a policy that
requires personnel from every department to regularly work from an alternate
location, whether from home, a supplier’s office, a library, or a telework center as
practice in case some event makes their traditional offices unusable or
inaccessible.
In 2004 at AT&T, for example, almost one third (30%) of all their management
employees worked full-time outside of the traditional office. The company
realized an estimated $180 million in bottom line benefits.
And those benefits clearly were “green” as well as “blue.” Just in the Atlanta
metropolitan area alone, AT&T estimated that telework reduced driving by half a
million miles over a 10-year period, saving some 500,000 gallons of fuel and
4,700 tons of carbon dioxide emissions.
Buy-in from senior management is critical. They should take the lead by
appointing a working group to plan the telework program and put it into action,
develop policies, processes, and procedures for implementation, monitor and
evaluate progress, and assess the need for refinements that will make the
strategy more effective. Representatives from HR, IT, the Business Continuity
team, legal, real estate, senior management, and the employees themselves
should be included. The working group will then:
• Appoint a telework program manager.
• Screen potential teleworkers for their ‘Attributes of Telework Success.’
• Put together a written contract outlining the responsibilities of both the
organization and the employees.
• Establish a training program to help managers understand how to manage
a remote workforce, i.e. manage to objectives and by metrics—what is
actually being accomplished—not by how much time is spent in the office.
• Determine what, if any, equipment will be provided by the organization
and what, if any recurring expenses will be covered by the employer or the
employee such as broadband Internet access, a second phone line for
business calls, ergonomic furniture, lighting etc.
• Establish security levels that must be maintained such as virus protection,
firewalls, data backup, lockable file drawers, etc.
• With IT taking the lead, evaluate remote access systems and/or software.
Make sure you have capacity and/or licenses to accommodate all of the
users that might need to have simultaneous access to your network.
• Determine how voice communications will be handled. Calls to your office
may need to be rerouted in the event of a total system outage.
• Review other collaboration technologies such as web based file access,
spreadsheet and word document sharing, and web-based video
conferencing.
• Establish protocols on when and how to advise employees not to come to
the office and what alternative measures to take.
• Establish contact directories and systems, between colleagues and with
family members to ensure on-going communication between them,
wherever they are.
• Establish practice and simulation programs for both managers and
employees, and then practice, simulate, practice, simulate and practice
again.
• Provide and continually reinforce a home office health and safety
checklist. Issues to address should include proper seating, lighting,
electrical capacities, smoke detectors, etc. Include FEMA’s survival kit
guidelines that include supplies of water, canned and dried foods.
• Establish goals and objectives for both the program and its participants.
With the flu season here, the capability to telework can eliminate another cause
of disruption within an organization—the rapid spread of infection throughout the
workforce. There is a term called ‘presenteeism.’ It is, in a sense, the opposite
of absenteeism, where an employee does not come to work when ill. With
presenteeism, an employee with an ailment such as the flu goes to the office and
spreads his or her infection among coworkers. Such employees should be
counseled to take advantage of the telework option and remain home. And, let
them know that they will not be charged sick leave when working from home in
this situation.
Summing Up
The Telework Coalition’s top 10 reasons for adoption of this alternative work
style:
1. Reduce carbon footprints and greenhouse gas emissions.
2. Significantly reduce dependence on foreign energy, especially
petroleum products.
3. Decrease the impact of terrorist and natural ‘high-profile’ incidents
and/or events.
4. Emphasize the use of technology and promote innovation in the
workplace.
5. Minimize threats to and reliance upon expensive transportation
infrastructures.
6. Ease traffic congestion and improve highway safety (reduced
fatalities and injuries).
7. Improve recruiting and retention of skilled labor.
8. Enhance productivity and creativity.
9. Provide a means to enhance rural economic development.
10. Provide hope and economic opportunity for service-disabled
veterans, others with disabilities, both domestically and globally,
and for older workers who desire to remain in or reenter the
workforce.
as have those TelCoa has recognized with its ‘Telework Hall of Fame Awards’:
http://www.telcoa.org/id223.htm .
chaired the Telework Task Force, was the Executive Director of ITAC, the International
Telework Association & Council, and is a member and Past President of MATAC, the
Mid Atlantic Telecommuting Advisory Council. Chuck is on the committee that
developed and promoted the Washington Area Conference on Telework, sat on both the
Metropolitan Washington, DC and National Telecommuting and Air Quality Act (TAQA)
Steering Committees of the e-Commute program run by the EPA and DOT and was its
Lead Consultant in the DC region. He is also a Project Team member of a group funded
by the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health that has developed a
program of Health, Safety, and Ergonomic training for Teleworkers.
Chuck has addressed diverse groups ranging from the National Institute of Science and
Technology and the Council of Scientific Society Presidents to the Association of
Contingency Planners and the Peace Corps. He has been the featured guest on many
radio interview shows, appeared on NBC Channel 4 in Washington, DC, was on Fox
News' Fox Magazine, ABC’s World News Tonight, and NBC’s Nightly News. He has
written many articles on Teleworking, and is often quoted in both local and National
press, including the Washington Post, USAToday, the Wall Street Journal, Financial
Week, Money Magazine, Kiplinger’s Personal Finance, Federal Computer Week,
GovExec.com, Government Computer News, NetworkWorld magazine, and
ABCNews.com.
Recently, Chuck was invited to participate in a program that is an initiative of the United
Nations to help promote “Accessible and Assistive Information and Communications
Technologies for Persons with Disabilities”.
Jack is a combat decorated and disabled former U.S. Army Signal Corps officer.
The Public Entity Risk Institute provides these materials "as is," for educational
and informational purposes only, and without representation, guarantee or
warranty of any kind, express or implied, including any warranty relating to the
accuracy, reliability, completeness, currency or usefulness of the content of this
Introduction
Following the attacks on New York City and the Pentagon on September 11, 2001, the
civilian and military branches of the federal government accelerated on-going but
fragmented efforts to thwart future acts of terrorism in the United States. Among other
actions, this resulted in the formation of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS),
the largest consolidation of federal agencies since the creation of the Department of
Defense in 1947. The mission of the DHS is to lead the unified national effort to secure
America by preventing and deterring terrorist attacks and protecting against and
responding to threats and hazards to the nation. 1 As a result of that mission, the way
Americans live, work, and travel has been changed, possibly forever. The form and
function of our cities and public spaces has been altered as well. This paper will briefly
explore how the concept of “homeland security” has evolved since 2001 and how the
policies developed and actions taken since that time have impacted the broader
objectives of a sustainable and civil society.
1 Securing Our Homeland, U. S. Department of Homeland Security Strategic Plan. p.4. 2004
of other hazards and policy issues that compete both for the public’s attention and its
tax dollars. Risk management provides a useful basis for beginning this exercise.
Risk is a concept that gives meaning to those uncertainties of life that pose a danger
to people or what we value. 2 Risk is often expressed as a combination of the likelihood
of an adverse event, the vulnerability of people, places, and things to that event, and the
consequences should that event occur, i.e., the probability of an adverse event (threat
and vulnerability) multiplied by the consequences of that event, or R = T x V x C. For
example, if we consider the case of rising sea level, the risk is greater to people living in
coastal areas than to those at higher elevations because of their increased vulnerability
to lowland flooding and the greater consequences (to them) if flooding occurs.
One of the inherent shortcomings of this simplified approach to risk is that the laws of
multiplication can produce a similar value for risk for vastly different classes of events.
For example, from a mathematical standpoint, a catastrophic event with extremely low
probability can appear to carry the same “risk” as a relatively frequent event with far
lower consequences. Although it is compelling to plan for some “maximum probable
event” and believe that the issue has been addressed, the cost of doing this may be
prohibitive. In addition, addressing just the worst that could happen may actually
increase the vulnerability (and hence the risk) of more frequent but less damaging
events.
For this reason, a more formalized process of risk assessment has been developed.
Risk assessment has classically been defined by three questions: 3
1. What can go wrong?
2. What is the likelihood that it could go wrong?
3. What are the consequences of failure?
Closely related to risk assessment is risk management, the process by which the
results of risk assessment are integrated with other information—such as political,
social, economic, and engineering considerations—to arrive at decisions about the need
and methods for risk reduction. Risk management seeks answers to a second set of
questions: 4
4. What can be done and what options are available?
5. What are the associated trade-offs in terms of all costs, benefits, and risks?
6. What are the impacts of current management decisions on future options?
2 National Research Council, 1996. Understanding Risk: Informing Decisions in a Democratic Society, National Research Council,
National Academy Press, Washington, D.C.
3 Kaplan, S., and Garrick, B. J., 1981. "On the Quantitative Assessment of Risk," Risk Analysis, Vol. 1, No. 1, pp. 11–27.
4 Haimes, Y. Y., 1991. "Total Risk Management," Risk Analysis, Vol. 11, No. 2, pp. 169–171.
these dangers are real, there is no such thing as “real risk” or “objective risk.” From his
perspective, the theoretical models used by risk analysts to quantify risk are just as
subjective and assumption-laden, and dependent on individual judgment, as the implicit
value judgments reached by lay persons. Defining risk has been described as an
exercise in power wherein whoever controls the definition of risk controls the risk
management solution. 5
Thus, if the “risk” is defined as vehicle bomb attacks against buildings or as satchel
charges on subways, the solutions will focus on the means to thwart that mode of
attack. Other hazards, not to mention other objectives will likely fall to the wayside. In
any event, there can be little question that current concerns about terrorism and the risk
it poses to individuals or society are shaped as much by perception as by objective risk
assessments.
7 Keeney, R., 1992. Value-Focused Thinking: A Path to Creative Decision Making, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA.;
Keeney, R., and H. Raiffa, 1993. Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Trade-offs, Cambridge University
Press: Cambridge, UK.; Hammond, K. R., 1996. Human Judgment and Social Policy: Irreducible Uncertainty, Inevitable Error,
Unavoidable Injustice, Oxford University Press, New York.
8 National Institute of Standards and Technology, 1994. 1994 Northridge Earthquake: Performance of Structures, Lifelines, and
Fire Protection Systems, National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg, MD.
9Meacham, B.J., R. Bower, J. Traw, and A. Moore, 2005. “Performance-based building regulation: Current situation and
future needs,” Building Research and Information, 33(2):91-106.
L ev e l I :
G o al
L e v el II : F u n c ti o n al
S t a te m e n t
L ev el II I: O p er a ti ve R eq u i re m e n t
L e ve l IV : P e r fo r m a n c e o r R is k G ro u p
L e ve l V : P e r fo r m a n ce o r R is k L ev el
L ev e l V I: P e rf o r m a nc e o r R is k C r it er i a ( M e as u r es )
L ev el V I Ia : D e em e d t o S a ti sf y L ev el V I Ib : P e rf o r m a n ce -B as e d
S o l u ti on s S o lu ti o n s
L ev e l V III : V er if ic a ti on M et h o d s
10Petroski, H., 1992. To engineer is human: The role of failure in successful design, Vintage, New York; Petroski, H., 1994. Design
paradigms: Case histories of error and judgment in engineering, Cambridge University, Cambridge, U.K.
In a study of errors in the healthcare industry, the Institute of Medicine 11 noted that
there are major conceptual concerns with commonly used forensic techniques in
medicine:
The people involved could rarely have foreseen the complex
coincidences that cause systems to fail. As a result, they are
reviewed only in hindsight; however, knowing the outcome of
an event influences how we assess past events. Hindsight
bias means that things that were not seen or understood at
the time of the accident seem obvious in retrospect.
Hindsight bias also misleads a reviewer into simplifying the
causes of an accident, highlighting a single element as the
cause and overlooking its multiple contributing factors. Given
that the information about an accident is spread over many
participants, none of whom may have complete information,
hindsight bias makes it easy to arrive at a simple solution or
to blame an individual, but difficult to determine what really
went wrong.
Kletz, 12 in a study of industrial accidents, also cautions about too much emphasis on
causes:
If we talk about causes we may be tempted to list those we
can do nothing about. For example, a source of ignition is
often said to be the cause of a fire. But when flammable
vapour and air are mixed in the flammable range, experience
shows that a source of ignition is liable to turn up, even
though we have done everything possible to remove known
sources of ignition. The only really effective way of
preventing an ignition is to prevent leaks of flammable
vapour. Instead of asking, ‘What is the cause of this fire?’ we
should ask ‘What is the most effective way of preventing
another similar fire?’ We may then think of ways of
preventing leaks.
This suggests that care needs to be taken in analyzing past failures so that proposed
solutions address the real issues, not merely the obvious ones.
11 Institute of Medicine, 2000. To err is human: Building a safer health system, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C.
12 Kletz, T., 2001. Learning from accidents, Gulf Professional, Oxford, U.K.
somewhere else but this is not always an option for many place-based
industries, iconic structures, or infrastructure networks. A more
resilient approach might be to spread the risk by choosing multiple
redundant locations for certain activities as the New York Stock
Exchange and many businesses in New York and elsewhere did
following the 9/11 attacks.)
4. Rapid Response and Recovery (Does the system possess sufficient
resilience to recover quickly?)
Steps 1-3 all address pre-event mitigation activities. Systems are designed and put in
place on the best assumptions regarding what is likely to happen.
However, history is littered with accounts of allegedly foolproof or failsafe protective
technologies that failed spectacularly when tested. The ‘‘impregnable’’ Maginot Line is a
good case in point. Designed after World War I to counter another German invasion of
France, it failed utterly in practice. Although its designers assumed what was believed to
be a rational threat scenario, then planned and designed for it, in World War II, the
Germans simply chose not to confront these extremely formidable defenses on the
French border and attacked through lightly defended Belgium instead.
Similarly, physical security, although a key component of a risk reduction strategy, is
only part of the solution. Improving the resilience of communities and systems may
provide the basis of a more holistic approach.
have shown 13 that organizations and their internal cultures play a key role in the
reliability of civil infrastructure systems and the delivery of services dependent upon
them.
Building on the losses of the Challenger and Columbia space shuttles, the August
2003 Northeast electrical blackout, and other less catastrophic and less known failures,
a strong case can be made that organizations respond to cultural cues provided by
upper management and peer groups. Even though public pronouncements and official
documents may suggest that certain behaviors are desired, unless such public
statements are nurtured and rewarded in practice, they are ultimately abandoned as
operational guidance in day-to-day workflow.
For example, despite ample experience with many previous hurricanes and tropical
storms, and many days advance warning of the path and size of Hurricane Katrina,
critical communication and coordination links failed when needed most. Whether these
failures were rooted in technology or organizational culture is a critical question that
must be answered if progress is to be made in dealing with future events. Replacing
communications equipment so that everyone can talk on a common frequency will have
little value if there are institutional obstacles to coordination that remain unaddressed.
Human capital and institutional culture can play a critical role in the delivery of
humanitarian aid in the hours and days immediately following an extreme event.
Isolating the causes of failure will help to design more robust and resilient institutional
arrangements that survive and function even if traditional physical systems become
unavailable.
O’Rourke, et. al. 14 found that New York City was able to recover relatively quickly
following the September 11th attacks not only because of the inherent redundancy of its
physical infrastructures (which is considerable) but because of its institutional resilience
as well. Many of the service providers involved in New York’s recovery possessed
considerable capacities in people who are considered international experts in their
fields; in state-of-the-art equipment and configuration management; as well as in other
physical and institutional resources necessary to assist in the recovery. Although the
event itself had not been anticipated and many physical systems were out of service,
strong cultural bonds and organizational ethos were able to offset the physical failures.
Improvements to the public health infrastructure since September 11th also play a role
in balanced mitigation and emergency response strategies. Although our public health
system had suffered from years of neglect and crisis, 15 recent efforts to combat bio-
terrorism and the well coordinated response to the SARS epidemic suggest that the
global public health networks are again becoming functional and effective. 16
13 Little, R., 2004. “The Role of Organizational Culture and Values in the Performance of Critical Infrastructure Systems.” Proceedings of
the 2004 IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics. October 10-13, 2004, The Hague, The Netherlands.
14 O’Rourke, T.D., A.J. Lembo, and L.K. Nozick. 2003. “Lessons Learned from the World Trade Center Disaster About
Critical Utility Systems,” in Beyond September 11th: An Account of Post-Disaster Research, M. F. Myers, Ed. Natural Hazards
Research and Applications Information Center, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO., pp. 269-290.
15 Garrett, L., 2000. Betrayal of trust: The collapse of global public health, Hyperion, New York.
16 Drazen, J. M.,2003. ‘‘SARS—Looking back over the first 100 days.’’ N.Eng.J.Med. 349(4), 319–320.
The Public Entity Risk Institute provides these materials "as is," for educational and
informational purposes only, and without representation, guarantee or warranty of any
kind, express or implied, including any warranty relating to the accuracy, reliability,
completeness, currency or usefulness of the content of this material. Publication and
distribution of this material is not an endorsement by PERI, its officers, directors or
employees of any opinions, conclusions or recommendations contained herein. PERI
will not be liable for any claims for damages of any kind based upon errors, omissions
or other inaccuracies in the information or material contained here.
***
Healthcare facilities can benefit from improving the efficiency with which
they use energy, water, and other resources, as well as from improving their
impact on environmental quality. At the same time, the safety and security of
these facilities—in terms of risks that are posed both internally and to their
surrounding communities—are of paramount importance to their mission. This is
particularly true for long-term care facilities, whose residents are generally more
vulnerable than the general population.
Most long-term care facilities in the United States are regulated by state
and local health departments, fire marshals, and by a variety of federal agencies.
For example, facilities whose residents are military veterans are also regulated
by the United States Department of Veteran Affairs. One of the primary
objectives of the regulatory oversight imposed upon long-term care facilities by
governmental agencies is to establish the safety and security required for frail,
elderly persons who reside in private, non-profit, or publicly owned entities.
The Joint Commission on Accreditation of Healthcare Organizations also
demands that long-term care facilities, to obtain and maintain accreditation, must
have an emergency management program to assure that patient care is
sustained in the event of disaster.
Safety has many components: They range from the temperature of the
water for washing and bathing to alarm system reliability to emergency control
systems operating at all times in the event of fire or smoke emergency. With the
emphasis on safety and security as primary objectives in guarding the well-being
of elderly residents, innovative “sustainability” technology and systems must be
examined in light of these criteria.
While it is possible to improve the energy efficiency and environmental
efficacy of health-care facilities, a unique set of criteria must be developed which
reflect the operational issues connected with these types of organizations.
Safety Systems
The following list represents some of the critically important criteria
embedded in the operational management of long-term care facilities. In each
area below, I note both (a) the current system that is used, and (b) alternative
possible systems.
3) Telephone
Hard-wire systems are preferred for reliability. Telephone systems using
cable or cell systems may be acceptable as long as the emergency alarm
signal travels through a highly reliable network.
5) Heating
Primary heating source is generally utilized. Alternative systems can be
installed with a redundant back-up system.
7) Transportation Services
Standard fuel services must be utilized since transportation is used to
transport residents to hospitals and doctors’ offices. Ethanol, diesel, and
electric vehicles with questionable reliability as to the source of the fuel limits
the value of alternative energy sources here.
JOHN A. BERENYI
johnberenyi@yahoo.com
Focus of his activities: alternative energy projects, power systems, solid waste
facilities, mass transit authorities, highways and bridges, affordable housing and
mortgage finance, water and sewer systems, long term care facilities, non profit
institutions such as universities, museums, stadiums, hospitals and nursing
homes. Currently his clients include an award winning Canadian-American
Eco Property Development Company which is developing “green building
projects” and sustainable facilities in North America and Europe—see:
www.ecocite.ca.
The Public Entity Risk Institute provides these materials "as is," for educational and
informational purposes only, and without representation, guarantee or warranty
of any kind, express or implied, including any warranty relating to the accuracy,
reliability, completeness, currency or usefulness of the content of this material.
Publication and distribution of this material is not an endorsement by PERI, its
officers, directors or employees of any opinions, conclusions or
recommendations contained herein. PERI will not be liable for any claims for
damages of any kind based upon errors, omissions or other inaccuracies in the
information or material contained here.
***
Introduction
Security and environmental sustainability are not only compatible goals, but
security is also a critical component and integral part of sustainability.
Sustainability has been considered the broader, more encompassing category,
and the role and importance of security as an element of sustainability is often
not explicitly recognized. The two concepts, security and sustainability converge
specifically in the area of urban infrastructure. Society cannot financially afford to
consider these two important social goals separately.
First, I will explore the issues and solutions within each of the two areas –
security and sustainability – separately, and then evaluate how a more integrated
perspective provides reinforcement and synergy for the particular issues that
each area faces. I will review some illustrations of New York City’s reaction to the
security problems created by the September 11, 2001 World Trade Center
attacks as well as the emphasis on environmental sustainability as development
moves forward in New York.
Second, in the conclusion, I will identify key issues that need to be addressed in
implementing such new paradigms.
Security
Issues
Security connotes protection from harm, for example, from natural disasters,
terrorism or accidents, and though it is related to other concepts such as safety, it
is distinct from them (Zimmerman 2008, forthcoming).
Security issues arise with respect to infrastructure in part due to highly dispersed,
but interconnected facilities that are not easily amenable to surveillance.
Development patterns and economies of production of infrastructure services—
particularly in the provision of electric power that is utilized by other infrastructure
sectors—have resulted in large distances between consumers and producers of
*
© Rae Zimmerman, 2008
New Paradigms 1
Infrastructure Risk and Renewal: The Clash of Blue and Green – A PERI Symposium
the services that infrastructure provides, which makes these facilities difficult to
protect.
The larger metropolitan regions in the country now consume land at a faster rate
than the rate at which the population is growing (Yaro and Hiss 1986: Figure 34).
In other words, the per-capita consumption of land is increasing, yet many of the
production sites for conventional infrastructure services remain concentrated,
underscoring the increasing distances between infrastructure consumption and
production.
Solutions
New Paradigms 2
Infrastructure Risk and Renewal: The Clash of Blue and Green – A PERI Symposium
from reserves throughout the country; the transit system was able to reroute
trains to continue service by bypassing the affected area (Zimmerman 2003b, c).
Sustainability
General attributes for sustainability are very extensive and too numerous to list
here, as are the areas in which the natural environment has come into conflict
with infrastructure. General principles of sustainability, however, are noteworthy
as a context for an evaluation of infrastructure in light of sustainability.
Similarly, sustainability has also been the foundation for reporting and accounting
frameworks in the business environment. The “Triple Bottom Line” (TBL)
standard was adopted in 2007 by the International Council for Local
Environmental Initiatives (ICLEI), founded in 1990, and the origin of the term is
attributed to John Elkington in 1994 (Wikipedia). TBL is considered to be an
expansion of “traditional reporting framework to take into account environmental
and social performance in addition to financial performance,” and has been
abbreviated in terms of three concepts, “People (Human Capital), Planet (Natural
Capital) and Profit (Economic Benefit)” (Wikipedia).
New Paradigms 3
Infrastructure Risk and Renewal: The Clash of Blue and Green – A PERI Symposium
warming is an important example that illustrates many of these threats, and has
produced changes or refinements in the application of principles of sustainability.
Issues
Areas in which infrastructure has affected the natural environment have been
known for a very long time and have been the centerpiece of U.S. environmental
legislation. However, the boomerang effects—those pertaining to the effects of
the environment on infrastructure—are less often noticed and articulated.
The issue of global warming has brought these issues to center stage. Effects
associated with global warming, such as temperature increases and sea-level
rise, pose a serious risk to the viability of infrastructure by straining the physical
properties of the infrastructure as well as altering its use. A number of effects
reviewed by the Center for Naval Analyses (CNA) (April 2007) include:
Solutions
New Paradigms 4
Infrastructure Risk and Renewal: The Clash of Blue and Green – A PERI Symposium
New Paradigms 5
Infrastructure Risk and Renewal: The Clash of Blue and Green – A PERI Symposium
Sustainable systems may reduce the complexity somewhat at the end points but
may be vulnerable at points of interconnection with more conventional
infrastructure (e.g., the case of wells and septic systems being operated via
electric pumps or the remote control of distributed communication systems).
Interdependencies occur both functionally and geographically. Co-location is a
common example of geographic proximity of infrastructure, bringing utility
distribution lines closer together, magnifying the impacts of a single failure of one
system, and hence, making them less secure.
Conclusions
Meeting the goals of both sustainability and security for infrastructure is possible
if planned at the outset. These are not inconsistent goals; in fact security is an
aspect of sustainability. Sustainable systems help achieve a certain amount of
decentralization that can harden infrastructure for security as well.
Sustainability and security of infrastructure share in common the fact that local
disturbances can have regional and even global impacts because of the symbolic
or cascading nature of highly localized events. Many of the same solutions can
meet both objectives, such as decentralization and undergrounding of
infrastructure and relying on resources that are ubiquitous and difficult to disable,
such as the sun and the wind for energy.
New Paradigms 6
Infrastructure Risk and Renewal: The Clash of Blue and Green – A PERI Symposium
References Cited
Center for Naval Analyses (CNA Corp.) National Security and the Threat of
Climate Change, April 2007.
Rinaldi, S.M. Peerenboom, J.P. and Kelly T.K., “Identifying, Understanding, and
Analyzing Critical Infrastructure Interdependencies,” IEEE Control Systems.
December 2001.
Yaro, R. and Hiss, T. A Region at Risk. Washington, DC: Island Press, 1996.
New Paradigms 7
Infrastructure Risk and Renewal: The Clash of Blue and Green – A PERI Symposium
New Paradigms 8
Infrastructure Risk and Renewal: The Clash of Blue and Green – A PERI Symposium
The use of this paper is limited to the PERI symposium (including subsequent
archival of symposium materials on the PERI website). For all other uses, please
contact the author at rae.zimmerman@nyu.edu.
New Paradigms 9
Infrastructure Risk and Renewal: The Clash of Blue and Green – A PERI Symposium
The Public Entity Risk Institute provides these materials "as is," for educational
and informational purposes only, and without representation, guarantee or
warranty of any kind, express or implied, including any warranty relating to the
accuracy, reliability, completeness, currency or usefulness of the content of this
material. Publication and distribution of this material is not an endorsement by
PERI, its officers, directors or employees of any opinions, conclusions or
recommendations contained herein. PERI will not be liable for any claims for
damages of any kind based upon errors, omissions or other inaccuracies in the
information or material contained here.
***
New Paradigms 10
Infrastructure Risk and Renewal: The Clash of Blue and Green – A PERI Symposium
The recent Minneapolis bridge collapse and steam pipe explosion in New York
have put our nation’s aging infrastructure under scrutiny, and brought to light the
overwhelming backlog of needed capital maintenance across the country. The
American Society of Civil Engineers estimates that the nation needs to spend
$1.6 trillion over the next five years just to maintain the current service level of
our existing infrastructure 1 . Cities across the country are grappling with the fiscal
realities of trying to address this mounting and never-ending cycle of construction
and maintenance.
Yet the issues that surround the debate on renewing our nation’s aging
infrastructure often pit public safety and security concerns against environmental
protection and conservation interests.
For example, in 1984, Tulsa, Oklahoma suffered one of the most devastating
floods in state history with resultant loss of life and costly structural damage. To
secure the city and prevent future disaster, an award-winning, comprehensive
stormwater management program was developed and several hundred million
dollars was invested in flood control infrastructure. Although there have been no
major flood events since program implementation, new flood control
improvements are required to continually maintain the system. However, despite
Tulsa’s success in flood hazard mitigation, some citizens question the need for
these improvements—and in some instances have opposed them—as a threat to
the region’s wildlife and natural environment.
CBO data are telling and troubling for a number of reasons. The chart below
illustrates the historic level of federal funding dedicated to the nation’s
infrastructure as a percentage of total spending. As the chart demonstrates,
federal funding levels peaked in the mid 1960’s and then began to decline to the
present level. The only recent increase was the spike after the terrorist attacks in
2001 which was primarily directed toward hardening potential target sites. CBO
data contained in the study
Infrastructure Spending As a Percentage
of Total Federal Spending (CBO)
10.00%
9.00%
8.00%
7.00%
Percent of Total Spending
6.00%
Percentage
5.00%
4.00%
3.00%
2.00%
1.00%
0.00%
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
Year
demonstrate that the level of financing borne by state and local governments
increased to 76.5% in 2004 from 62.3% in 1980 while the federal share fell from
37.7% to 23.5% over the same period. 2
Achieving suitable and sustainable levels of funding will require either raising
taxes by a sizable margin—which is progressively difficult in the increasingly anti-
tax environment in which many local governments are finding themselves—or
seeking new, “outside-the-box” strategies to address their needs.
Monetizing Assets
A number of state and local governments have gained national media attention
recently with similar strategies of leveraging capital assets through long-term
leases and outright sales, referred to as “monetizing assets” in the popular
media. The City of Minneapolis, the State of Iowa, and the City of Chicago have
all recently executed transactions that either provided up-front payments in
exchange for multi-year leases or cash from the outright sale of government-
owned assets. The benefits of these transactions are two-fold: They provide a
leveragable pool of capital which can be used to reduce debt or meet other
The City of Chicago completed the first precedent-setting lease of a public toll
road in the U.S. in 2004. 5 Chicago issued a request for qualifications (RFQ)
seeking bidders interested in a long-term lease on the 7.8-mile, “Chicago
Skyway” elevated toll road, to which two companies responded. Ultimately,
Cintra/Macquarie was the successful bidder with its $1.83 billion offer. The City of
Chicago has chosen to fund a long-term reserve, a medium-term reserve, and a
$100 million infrastructure fund with the proceeds from the lease.
Chicago’s execution of this long-term lease has opened a new frontier on the
infrastructure front. It has demonstrated that government-owned infrastructure
has quantifiable value in the private market while it also provides the framework
for new revenue streams. Governments could potentially leverage these revenue
streams to address other pressing needs which might include financing the
rehabilitation of its remaining, deteriorating infrastructure. Possibly more
importantly, these lease agreements transfer maintenance responsibility to the
more nimble and unencumbered private sector, which is better positioned to
adjust cost and revenue structures to meet any maintenance challenges.
The planning exercise and visioning under taken by Youngstown has resulted in
a number of innovative strategies that may prove to be useful in other
communities. Reducing land areas dedicated to residential and commercial use
would be a dramatic departure from the sprawl and drive mentality that pervades
the United States. Re-purposing areas to redefine the city’s industrial past, and
weaving that legacy into a greening strategy, is clearly on the cutting edge and
should be studied carefully by any community seeking a more sustainable future.
Seeking Sustainability
Monetizing assets and reducing environmental footprints may prove themselves
to be viable alternatives to communities across the country seeking sustainable
infrastructure. The sustainability initiative has gained increasing public
awareness and has been identified as a major focal point by many environmental
and professional groups. There are a number of common, core elements that cut
across the numerous sustainable agendas: achieving efficiencies, conserving
resources, and reducing impacts.
As federal funds decline further, as anti-tax sentiment often pervades the voting
public, and as cities continue to struggle with their infrastructure burdens,
maximizing existing resources and limiting the expansion of resource-depleting
public facilities will become increasingly necessary. Cities that encourage
efficiencies through the re-use of existing infrastructure by placing premiums on
compact dense development and encourage the conservation of resources
through green design code improvements will be positioned to overcome future
fiscal challenges.
The idea of a city seeking to shrink its size, to achieve efficiencies and conserve
resources, runs completely counter to the imbedded paradigms most
communities have come to embrace. And cities looking to leverage publicly
financed capital assets may incur the wrath of taxpayers. But in the decades to
come this may prove to be a paradigm shift.
Notes
1
“U.S. Infrastructure Found to Be in Disrepair”, The Wall Street Journal, May 9, 2007,
page B4.
2
“Trends in Public Spending on Transportation and Water Infrastructure, 1956-2004,”
Congressional Budget Office, August 2007.
3
“An Analysis of the President’s Budgetary Proposals For Fiscal Year 2008,”
Congressional Budget Office, March 21, 2007.
4
City of Tulsa, Oklahoma, Annual Budget and Capital Plan Fiscal Year 2007-2008, City
of Tulsa, Oklahoma 2007, page 8-29.
5
U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration, Public Private
Partnership Case Studies: Chicago Skyway.
6
Youngstown 2010 Citywide Plan, City of Youngstown, Ohio 2004, pages 18 and 30-
31.
The Public Entity Risk Institute provides these materials "as is," for educational
and informational purposes only, and without representation, guarantee or
warranty of any kind, express or implied, including any warranty relating to the
accuracy, reliability, completeness, currency or usefulness of the content of this
material. Publication and distribution of this material is not an endorsement by
PERI, its officers, directors or employees of any opinions, conclusions or
recommendations contained herein. PERI will not be liable for any claims for
damages of any kind based upon errors, omissions or other inaccuracies in the
information or material contained here.
***
Introduction
The topics of “sustainability” and “sustainable development” have achieved
increasing prominence during the last thirty years. The concept of sustainable
development can be conceived of in a general sense as a process through which
there is a satisfaction of human needs while simultaneously preserving the
quality of the natural environment. The linkage between economic development
and the natural environment was perhaps first acknowledged in 1980 when the
International Union for the Conservation of Nature published a pamphlet entitled
World Conservation Strategy that included the term “sustainable development”
(IUCN, 1980). The term, sustainable development, came into more general use
following the publication of the Brundtland Commission report in 1987
(Brundtland Commission, 1987). The Brundtland Commission, which was
formally known as the World Commission on Environment and Development,
was created by the United Nations General Assembly. The Brundtland
Commission established the most commonly used definition of sustainable
development, as development which “meets the needs of the present generation
without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.”
Unfortunately this definition has been difficult to implement in practical terms;
consequently, it has been necessary to search for more particular definitions of
sustainable development. It is now generally recognized that sustainable
development does not focus entirely on the environment. The notion of
sustainable development encompasses three primary areas: the economic, the
social, and the environmental. As such, sustainable development can be said to
rest on three fundamental principles: economic development, social
development, and environmental protection.
In this context, Portland State University’s School of Business and Center for
Sustainable Processes and Practices recently sponsored a Sustainability in the
Supply Chain Conference (Center for Sustainable Processes and Practices,
2007). This conference brought together participants from industry and
academia to share information and research about sustainability. A number of
large business enterprises, such as Boeing, Nike, Intel, Wal-Mart, Toyota Motor
Company and Columbia Forest Products attended this conference and described
their companies’ activities targeted towards reducing their output of wastes and
overall use of energy. These companies not only have found this to be helpful
for the environment, but also useful in reducing costs. This is a progressive
approach towards the sustainability. Sustainable development can therefore be
seen as progressive, optimistic and forward looking, whereas radical
sustainability is essentially conservative or even reactionary. In effect, and at the
extreme, some of the advocates of radical sustainability suggest that there must
be a significant reduction in the human population and a dismantling of
capitalism, with a general reversion to lower levels of economic existence for
everyone on the planet (Johnson, 2007).
REFERENCES
Brundtland Report (1987). Our Common Future, Oxford: Oxford University Press,
http://www.un-documents.net/wced-ocf.htm, retrieved on December 11,
2007.
Perelman, L.J. (2007), “Infrastructure Risk and Renewal: The Clash of Blue and
Green”, PERI Symposium, Fairfax, Virginia: Public Entity Risk Institute,
http://www.riskinstitute.org/PERI/NEWS/, retrieved on December 11,
2007.
C. Richard Baker is Professor and Chair of the Department of Accounting, Finance and
Economics at the School of Business of Adelphi University, Garden City, New York.
Prior to joining Adelphi University, he was Professor and Chair of the Accounting and
Finance Department at the University of Massachusetts-Dartmouth. He has also been
on the faculties of Columbia and Fordham universities in New York City. His research
interests focus on the regulatory, legal, disciplinary and ethical aspects of the public
accounting profession. He is the author of over 90 academic papers and other
publications. He holds the Ph.D. from the School of Management at UCLA and is a
Certified Public Accountant in New York State.
The Public Entity Risk Institute provides these materials "as is," for educational
and informational purposes only, and without representation, guarantee or
warranty of any kind, express or implied, including any warranty relating to the
accuracy, reliability, completeness, currency or usefulness of the content of this
material. Publication and distribution of this material is not an endorsement by
PERI, its officers, directors or employees of any opinions, conclusions or
recommendations contained herein. PERI will not be liable for any claims for
damages of any kind based upon errors, omissions or other inaccuracies in the
information or material contained here.
***
Americans have a life and death stake in the operational resilience of America’s
critical infrastructure. Critical infrastructure enables every activity in the nation
and will be the foundation of any responsible application of “green” or sustainable
technologies. Yet, despite being the most fundamental of national and homeland
security capacities, years of neglect, efficiency measures, repair (rather than
continuous modernization) have combined to create an American infrastructure
that is highly efficient, profitable, theoretically protected, but decaying, and
consequence-amplifying.
1
See Page 1, Paragraph 1, HSAC Critical Infrastructure Task Force Report at www.dhs.gov/hsac
2
These groups included prominent Americans from both sides of the political aisle including: Former CIA
and FBI Director, Judge William Webster (the HSAC’s Chair); 9/11 Commission member, former U.S.
Representative Lee Hamilton; former Secretary of Defense and Secretary of Energy, James Schlesinger;
and former Speaker of the House Tom Foley.
While no action was taken by DHS, the CITF’s recommendations have since
been reinforced in further studies conducted by The Infrastructure Security
Partnership 3 and the Council on Competitiveness. 4 The latter noted:
“Technological and Market Forces have created new potential for business
disruption in every sector. The challenge is just not protection—it is resilience.”
Most recently, former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani wrote: “The next
Administration’s approach to homeland security should be based on three core
principles: prevention, preparedness, and resilience.” 5
3
See TISP Regional Disaster Resilience Guide
4
See Transform. The Resilient Economy: Integrating Competitiveness and Security, 25 June 2007
5
Rudolph W. Giuliani, “The Resilient Society,” City Journal (18, 1) Winter 2008.
In addition to those discussed above, all-hazards events that that should have
prompted national policy and program (i.e., taxpayer dollar expenditure)
transformation to resilience including:
Yet the ongoing blizzard of such disastrous events so far has had no effect on
the strategic direction of national infrastructure policy.
Further, “protective measures” have never been and are not an objective or goal
unto themselves. In the worst case, as General George Patton sternly observed,
“Fortifications are monuments to the stupidity of man.” They are even more so in
an interdependent infrastructure operating environment where an adversary can
disable a target without any direct attack, but rather by attacking any of the brittle
threads of infrastructure on which that target depends to function. For example,
a Department of Energy experiment recently showed that an electric power plant
could be destroyed by a cyber-attack on its operating software through the
Internet.
“I put my daughter in my car,” Mr. Chertoff noted in a later Senate hearing. “If I
wanted my daughter to be 100 percent safe, I’d put a five-mile-an-hour speed
limit cap on the car.” But that is not an option, he added, “because that’s more
safety than we can afford.” 6
6
“U.S. Can’t Protect All Targets, Chertoff Says,” The New York Times, September 12, 2006.
erosion of the wetlands that formerly buffered the impact of hurricanes on the
city.
The Advancement
Beyond necessary but clearly inadequate CIP efforts the nation needs to adopt a
proactive and empowering, national preparedness and performance standard to
assure infrastructure resilience.
The particular metric for the “Operational Resilience Standard (ORS)” to design
and develop more resilient national infrastructure is time—the time one can
tolerate some interruption or degradation of infrastructure services, the time to
recover, and/or the time to adapt to changed circumstances. The ORS is derived
from the answer to a no-nonsense, risk-based, question: How long can you do
without X (something important to you)?
Unlike CIP, the ORS recognizes and respects the spectrum of challenges
inherent in daily family, business, community and national life. Specifically:
• Change is constant.
• Emergency response drills and national exercises virtually always begin
with a failure of protective measures. (e.g., fire, flood, earthquake,
biological attack, pandemic, dirty bomb detonation).
• When protection fails, it fails completely.
• Humans make mistakes.
• Technologies and structures fail.
• Surprises are—in fact—surprises.
• Nature is not controllable in real time.
• Things wear out, get old, and have to be replaced.
• Accidents happen.
• Viruses mutate.
• Bad things happen to good people and nations.
• Good things happen to bad people and nations; and
• There long have been and will long continue to be some sufficiently
dedicated, patient, inventive, imbedded, resourced, and self-sacrificing
enemies—regardless of whether they are labeled “terrorists,” “criminals,”
“insurgents,” or “sociopaths”—who will be successful in inflicting harm.
The Resilience Imperative 5
Infrastructure Risk and Renewal: The Clash of Blue and Green – A PERI Symposium
Beyond the initial impact of an “all-hazards event” where all protective measures
are exhausted, resilience directly addresses infrastructure and societal
interdependencies and the multi-level consequences of an incident. Additionally,
a resilient infrastructure will be more reliable in providing the resources required
to increase or at least ensure the effectiveness of mitigation efforts and
emergency response capacities.
Michael Balboni, the Deputy Secretary for Public Safety for the State of New
York once termed resilience and discussions on dealing with life’s realities as “An
adult conversation.” Given the apparent current [mis]understanding that
protection is prevention, it is a conversation that today is long overdue.
A “Way Ahead”
With existing resources, government at all levels and the private sector can
leverage the lessons of the nation’s highly-successful Year 2000 (Y2K)
Transition. At that time, as the new millennium approached, many experts feared
that millions of computers worldwide might “crash” because the software that
controlled them was built with the assumption that, in all dates, the year began
with 19__. Assuring the operational continuity of the world’s software, operating
systems, and computer hardware—and most importantly, the spectrum of global
activities those systems enabled—required a responsible, focused, aggressive,
highly collaborative, international effort among government agencies at all levels,
private companies of every size, academia, independent associations and
organizations, and thousands of individual programmers, engineers, scientists,
and millions of users. Substantial resources were invested in remediating or
replacing obsolete components of the cyber-infrastructure. Information,
knowledge, and expertise had to be openly and generously shared. It all worked.
Similarly today, “green” objectives can be factored into all-hazard business and
community preparedness plans, and incorporated into state, regional, and
ultimately national “blue,” operational resilience, infrastructure requirements.
Current technologies and proven processes including those used in the Y2K
experience can be used to identify, prioritize, assess, instrument, and in real
time, monitor and manage the components and performance of what could be
called a “Minimum Essential National Infrastructure” (MENI).
Because of its national scope and an objective beyond the responsibilities of any
single federal department, both the MENI initiative and NIRI, like the Y2K effort,
will require a new, integrated leadership and management approach.
Accordingly, it would be wise to establish a National Infrastructure Resilience
Office (NIRO). The NIRO would create, lead and manage execution of a
comprehensive national strategy and programs to identify infrastructure
resilience requirements and provide for “ground-truth” assessments to accurately
triage, renew, and ensure resilient infrastructure service provision throughout the
21st Century and beyond.
Bottom Lines
Mr. Gaynor retired from the Army as a Colonel. His service encompassed over
30 years of enlisted and commissioned, Armor, Infantry, and Military Intelligence
experience. His assignments included: Communications Monitor,
Counterintelligence Agent and Operations Officer; Infantry Advisor to Vietnamese
Territorial Forces; Brigade Intelligence Officer and Secretary General Staff, 25th
Infantry Division; Director of the Secretary of Defense/Chairman, Joint Chiefs of
Staff Current Intelligence Presentations Division, Defense Intelligence Agency;
Mr. Gaynor is the recipient of: The Silver Star; Defense Superior Service Medal;
Legion of Merit; three awards of the Bronze Star Medal two for Valor; Combat
Infantryman’s, Joint Staff and Presidential Staff Identification Badges and two
awards of the Department of Defense Exceptional Civilian Service Medal.
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