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March 2011
&
Catalogue of CCFEI China Report ( Monthly )
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PTA Propylene
MEG Acrylonitrile
Paraxylene
Contract Price (Yuan/ton or $/ton) 14000
Month Change Price One month ago 13000 1650
12000 RMB USD 1500
Mar settled ↑450 13500 13050 11000 1350
RMB 10000
Apr listed ↑400 13500 13100 9000 1200
8000 1050
Mar settled ↑35 1655 1620 7000 900
USD Y/T $/T
Apr listed ↑50-80 1800-1810 1730-1750 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
JX Nippon Oil & Energy, ExxonMobil, Idemitsu Kosan and Korea S-oil settled March Asian PX contract prices at
$1,655/ton, up by $35/ton from February. Asian contract nominations for April came out as well, in the range of
$1,800-1,810/ton (CFR, L/C 90 days), up by $50-70/ton from March.
Sinopec issued its PX contract settlement for March at 13,500 yuan/ton, up by 450 yuan/ton from February.
Contract nominations for April were released at 13,500 yuan/ton, 400 yuan/ton higher over last month.
Spot Average Price ($/ton) 1800
Week Date USD 1700
Week 1 28Feb-4Mar 1668 1600
Week 2 7Mar-11Mar 1643 1500
Week 3 14Mar-18Mar 1778 1400
Week 4 21Mar -25Mar 1772 1300
Week 5 28Mar-1Apr 1706 1200
Monthly Ave. in Mar 1713 $/T 5Nov 10Dec 14Jan 25Feb 1Apr
In European market: March PX contract price was settled at €1,270/ton, up by €40/ton from February; Middle
East materials were heard delivered into Europe market. One trader said 25,000 tons of cargoes from Oman, Indonesia
and India would arrive in Spain and Turkey in March and April. In US market, March contract price was settled at
84.75-85.50 cts/lb. Following the earthquake and tsunami in Japan, Asian PX prices surged, followed by US prices. Spot
prices jumped from $1,760-1,765/ton in early March to $1,800-1,805/ton FOB USG.
-1-
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [PX]
Customs statistics showed that China’s PX import volume was 335.6kt in February, down by 47.7kt from January.
The average import price in February was at $1,533/ton, up by $189/ton on month.
Chinese enterprises mainly purchased term goods. Japan, South Korea and Chinese Taiwan are the major sources
for PX imports into China Mainland in February, with volumes at 82.5kt, 59.6kt and 53.9kt respectively, accounting for
24.58%, 17.76% and 16.06%, and the combined imports from the three accounts for 58.4% of the total. Import volume
from any other origin is all below 40kt.
The combined import volume in February 2011 amounts to 718.8kt, up 174.8kt year on year. The average import
price was at $1,433/ton, up by $328/ton or 29.68% year on year.
JX Nippon Oil & Energy declared force majeure (FM) on the supply of PX from 15 March to 30 April,
Global Plant
and reduced supply by half after they shut down units in Kawasaki and Kashima following the earthquake
Operation
and tsunami in Japan. The two plants have a combined nameplate capacity of 95kt/yr.
According to CCFEI’s statistics, China’s PTA production in February is about 1,212.9kt, which reflects a demand of
788.4kt for PX. Based on operating rates of Chinese PX enterprises, February PX production should amount to 500.4kt.
The total PX export volume in February is 43kt, and total import volume hits 335.6kt. According to these data, the
supply in February is 793kt, a little more than demand. (It was heard that PX from new plants of Urumqi Petrochemical
started to be delivered gradually.)
CCFEI Comment
Feedstock: Crude values soared up to above $100/bbl, and is expected to hike and remain in uptrend given unstable
global situation. Additionally, with naphtha and MX prices also at high levels, PX can get some support from feedstock
costs.
PX supply: The recent earthquake in Japan led to FM of some units, so overall supply dropped significantly.
Downstream demand: Since many PTA units in Asia would be shut down next month, demand for PX will decrease.
To sum up, Issues in Japan could not be solved in the short term. Besides, players in Europe and US were very
buoyant. In Asian market, there were still European end users who inquired for April cargoes, and some India cargoes
were delivering into US gulf across Atlantic Ocean. Thus, due to overall tight supply, it is hard for PX prices to slump in
future.
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China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [PTA]
PTA
Contract Price (yuan/ton, $/ton) 13000
Change Range Prev. Month 12000
RMB
Settled for Mar ↓50-↑50 11900-12000 11950 11000
RMB 10000
Nominated for Apr ↑0-100 12000-12100 12000 9000
Implemented for Mar → - - 8000
USD Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Nominated for Apr → - - Y/T
RMB-based contract market: Several domestic major suppliers settled PTA contract prices for March basically
at 11,900-12,000 yuan/ton, with individuals a little higher than market expectation. Their contract nominations for April
came out at 12,000-12,100 yuan/ton, up by 0-100 yuan/ton from the nominations for March.
USD-based spot market: PTA prices saw a mild uptrend amid correction in March.
In early March, pushed by cotton futures, PTA futures showed an uptrend, so players had better mood, driving spot
price up as well. Offers for Taiwan cargoes rose to $1,530/ton from $1,490, while trading prices went up to $1,510-
1,520/ton. Afterwards, as buyers showed resistance to the high prices, spot market weakened. However, given a little
tight supply of cargoes, price downtrend slowed down, with offers for Taiwan cargoes down to $1,505-1,510/ton and
talks at $1,500/ton. In mid March, the earthquake in Japan influenced production of some local PX plants, so some
shipments were delayed. Thus, PX surged up, and set a new high. Backed by this situation, PTA prices also climbed up,
with sporadic offers for some Taiwan cargoes up to $1,550/ton. Since downstream polyester sector could not follow up,
however, mainstream talks for PTA only hit $1,530-1,535/ton. Till the last week of March, due to slumps of PTA
futures, PTA spot market showed a downtrend, with major talks down to $1,460/ton.
RMB-based spot market: The market took the similar trend to USD-based market.
In early March, the market showed an uptrend, with major talks up to 11,750-11,800 yuan/ton from 11,550-11,600
yuan/ton. Trades were limited, as some sellers held materials tight. The uptrend did not last long. Influenced by
dropping PTA futures and overall polyester sector, RMB-based market showed a weak trend, with major talks down to
11,400-11,450 yuan/ton. In light of limited spot PTA, both buyers and sellers held their positions. Downtrend of PTA
spot market was slower than that of PTA futures market because of tight supply, and spot PTA prices were higher than
PTA futures. Stepping into mid March, as some downstream users purchased PTA at a result of low prices, and also
driven by soaring PX prices, PTA prices climbed up slowly, with major talks up to about 11,600 yuan/ton. By the month
end, however, pulled down by PTA futures, major talks went down to 11,200-11,300 yuan/ton.
In Europe, restart of some BP plants slightly relieved tight supply, but downstream PET producers were also
intending to raise run rates.
In USA, PX prices firmed up on tight supply. As a result, it was expected that PTA contract prices would be close
to 70.5 cts/lb.
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China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [PTA]
-4-
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [MEG]
MEG
Contract Prices from Majors (yuan/ton, $/ton) 11000 1200
10000 1100
Month Up/down Range Pre. month
9000
1000
March Settled ↓300 9950 10250 8000
RMB 900
April Nominated ↓350 9950 10300 7000 RMB USD
6000 800
March Settled ↑ — —
USD Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
April Nominated → 1350-1400 1350-1400 Y/T $/T
USD-based market: Sabic, Shell and MEGlobal nominated their Asian contract prices for April at $1,350-1,400/ton
(CFR, L/C 90 days), flat to March.
RMB-based market: Sinopec settled its March contract price at 9,950 yuan/ton, down by 300 yuan/ton from
February, and announced its April contract price at 9,950 yuan/ton, down by 350 yuan/ton on month.
USD-based market: Prices hiked first and then began to fluctuate down.
In early March, driven by the surge of PTA futures, MEG market was in uptrend, with offers up from $1,250/ton
to $1,270/ton and trading prices up from $1,245/ton to $1,260/ton. However, the rise came to an end quickly after too
fast hike due to high domestic inventory and sellers’ offloading under tank pressure but low buying interest. In mid
March, mainstream negotiations dropped to $1,200-1,205/ton, while driven by strong PTA market, mainstream
negotiations edged up to $1,215/ton. However, price hikes were hard, as buying interest was not strong. Entering the
last week of March, MEG prices move down, with mainstream negotiations down to $1,122/ton due to the dive of PTA
futures.
RMB-based market: RMB-based market mirrored the trend on the USD-based market.
In early March, MEG market was bullish, with offers up from 9,850 yuan/ton to 10,000 yuan/ton and mainstream
trading prices up to 9,950/ton. With high-position price approaching 10,000 yuan/ton mark, buyers’ follow-up
momentum weakened, and prices inched down due to inventory pressure. In mid March, mainstream trading prices
dropped to 9,600-9,650 yuan/ton. Driven by strong PTA futures, offers were tentatively hiked to 9,700 yuan/ton, but
the bullish market weakened gradually. In the last week of March, MEG market tended to fall, with mainstream
negotiations at 8,800-8,850 yuan/ton, and overall trades were hard to be concluded given low buying interest.
In Europe, initial contract price for March was settled at €1,130/ton FD NEW between Arteco and Ineos, up by
€60/ton from February. Spot market weakened after corrections.
In US, prices fluctuated. By the month end, cargoes were traded at 55-56 cts/lb FOB USG.
-5-
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [MEG]
According to statistics from China Customs, China’s MEG imports in February 2011 totalled 393.2kt, down by
269.4kt on month; and the average price declared to China Customs was at $1,160/ton, an increase of $94/ton from
January’s $1,066/ton.
In February, 373.2kt of MEG was imported from other Asian countries or regions, down by 240.2kt from January
and accounting for 95% of the total. Hereinto, the volume from Saudi Arabia ranked the first at 187.8kt, down by
127kt from January’s 314.8kt and accounting for 47.761% of the total; Taiwan and Singapore followed, with volumes of
82.4kt and 30.2kt respectively.
As for deep-sea cargoes, import volume from Canada in February decreased 33.33kt month on month to 15.9kt,
taking up 4% of the total. Import volume from U.S. was 4.1kt, taking up 1% of total. Import volume from other
countries was nearly zero in February.
In February, the average cost (based on the USD versus RMB exchange rate 1: 6.58) for stocked MEG was around
9,602 yuan/ton, up by 738 yuan/ton from the average cost declared to China Customs in January.
Shell issued force majeure on its 750kt/yr MEG unit at Singapore due to ethylene production
Plant News
outage.
According to the assessment by CCFEI, the productions for PFY, PSF, fiber-grade PET chips and non-fiber grade
ones in February respectively totalled 1,290kt, 395.1kt, 197kt and 251kt. Based on these, total production of polyester
melt during the month reached 1,936.1kt, with demand for MEG at around 658.3kt. Import volume of MEG in February
was 393.2kt and export volume was 0.1kt. Besides, according to CCFEI’s statistics, domestic MEG production reached
265.8kt in February. Based on above data, MEG supply totalled 658.9kt in February, basically flat to demand (some
surplus supplies are to meet demand from antifreeze sector).
CCFEI Comment
Upstream: Crude values hiked to above $100/bbl and are likely to jump further on global unrest. Meanwhile,
ethylene prices saw high-level corrections recently, which offered moderate cost support for MEG market.
Supply: Stocks were high, as sellers held back sales, expecting post-holiday market to be bullish.
Demand: Many downstream PET units are idled due to low sale/production ratios. Meanwhile, operation was
restricted, as power blackout was carried out gradually. Thus overall demand for polyester fiber and intermediates was
affected.
To sum up, short-term MEG market is likely to make soft corrections due to inventory pressure.
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China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [BGPET]
BGPET Chip
Nominations from Majors (yuan/ton) 15000
Specifications 13000
Time Water BGPET Hot-filling Soft-drink 11000
(W) BGPET (H) BGPET (S) 9000
Jan 13500 13600 13700 7000
W H S
Feb 14600 14700 14800 5000
Y/T Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar.
Mar — — —
Spot Price Water Bottle Grade (yuan/ton)
15500
Time Price On week
14000
Week 1 28Mar -4Mar 14080 ↑ 12500
Week 2 7Mar-11Mar 14260 ↑ 11000
Week 3 14Mar -18Mar 14180 ↓ 9500
Week 4 21Mar -25Mar 14210 ↑ 8000
Week 5 28Mar-1Apr 14220 ↑ Y/T
29Oct 10Dec 14Jan 25Feb 1Apr
Monthly Ave. in Mar 14190 ↑
In Mid Mar, Asian PX surged for 3 successive days on outages of 950kt/yr PX capacities in Japan resulted from
earthquake, while negative influences on global stock market and softening US cotton sent China TA market into
instability, and BGPET market went stable-to-soft.
At month end, though PTA and MEG were settled high at 12,000 yuan/ton and 9,950 yuan/ton respectively,
mainstream talks of BGPET chips remained between 14,100-14,300 yuan/ton ex-works.
Driven by high cost, European and American markets saw further price increases in Market. In Europe, overall run
rates of PET units were cut to 60-80%, while those of plants in the US hovered at 90%. Prices are expected to continue
with the uptrend in Europe and the US next month on cost support.
-7-
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [BGPET]
China imported 899 tons of BGPET chips in Feb, down by 56.6% from Jan. The average import price for Feb was at
$1,752/ton, up 11.6% from Jan. China's export volume in Feb was 58,313 tons, up by 50.6% from Jan. The average
export price for Feb was at $1,585/ton, up 9.3% from Jan. From above data we can see that China’s export volume for
BGPET is far larger than the import volume, with the net export volume of 57,414 tons, up 20,767 tons from Jan.
In Feb, among the destinations for China's exports, Ukraine ranked the first, with the volume taking up 21.3% of
total. Russia took the second place at 16.4%, and Japan the third at 11.5%.
Compared with last month, inventory level in March fell on decent demand from home and abroad, with low level
below 10 days and high level between 21-30 days.
CCFEI Comment
Supply: Next month some suppliers who are now running at low rates are likely to raise run rates with the market
heading for toward busy season and overseas market remaining sound.
Demand: Players are quite sensitive to market changes recently given firm overseas demand and busy season
drawing near. Therefore, once the market shows sign of strengthening, trading volume is expected to increase instantly
boosted by players’ buy-up sentiment.
Cost: With Central Bank of China raising interest rates higher and talks about the 5 percentage points cut of
textile export rebate rate, it is getting difficult for prices to remain at current high level. On the other hand, the
scheduled TA of more than 5,000kt PTA capacities will continue to lend support to the market.
To sum up, unfavorable economic environment combined with sluggish fiber demand will continue to curb PET prices.
In H1 and mid Apr, PET market sentiment is expected to soften but there will be limited space for BGPET to go down,
and it is possible that TAs of PTA units will help to improve the market.
-8-
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [FGPET]
FGPET Chip
Settlements from Majors (yuan/ton) 15000
Sinopec East China South China 13500
Month
SD Bright SD Bright SD Bright 12000 Sinopec
East China
Jan 12800 12650 12750 12750 12900 12850 10500 South China
Feb 13650 13550 13750 13750 13950 13950 9000
Y/T Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Mar 13850 13700 13950 13850 14200 14100
Nominations from Majors (yuan/ton)
15000
Sinopec East China South China
Month 13500
SD Bright SD Bright SD Bright
12000 Sinopec
Jan 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000 13,000 13,000 East China
10500 South China
Feb 12,500 12,500 12,500 12,500 12,500 12,500 9000
Y/T Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Mar 13,700 13,700 13,800 13,800 13,900 13,900
Spot Average Price (yuan/ton)
15500
Week Time SD On Week
14000
Week 1 28Mar -4Mar 13620 ↑
12500
Week 2 7Mar-11Mar 13645 ↑
11000
Week 3 14Mar -18Mar 13570 ↓
↓ 9500
Week 4 21Mar -25Mar 13500
Week 5 28Mar-1Apr 13490 ↓ 8000
Y/T 29Oct 10Dec 14Jan 25Feb 1Apr
Monthly Ave. in Mar 13565 ↑
Semi Dull PET Chips: SD PET chip market in Zhejiang and Jiangsu ranged bound.
Prices firmed early in the month supported by US cotton and crude oil surge, with mainstream talks at 13,900-
13,950 yuan/ton (D/A 90 days) and low end at 13,800-13,850 yuan/ton (D/A 90 days). Then the market saw fluctuations
as stock and futures headed down on expectation of deposit reserve ratio increase.
In Mid Mar, Asian PX surged for 3 successive days on outages of 950kt capacities in Japan resulting from
earthquake, while negative influences on global stock market and softening US cotton sent China’s PTA market into
instability, and FGPET market went stable-to-soft, which was also attributed to weak downstream demand resulting
from power rationing.
At month end, though PTA and MEG were settled high at 12,000 yuan/ton and 9,950 yuan/ton respectively,
mainstream talks of SD chips remained between 13,700-13,750 (D/A 90 days).
Super Bright PET Chips: SB chip market saw similar features as semi-dull chip market did. Early in the month
mainstream talks inched up to 13,500-13,800 yuan/ton (cash or D/A), then softened to 13,300-13,650 yuan/ton in mid
month. At month end talks were pegged between 13,300-13,600 yuan/ton (cash or D/A).
CDP Chips: CDP market experienced similar movements as the above two products did.
Trading prices for CDP chips softened to 14,700 yuan/ton D/A by the end of this month from 14,500 yuan/ton D/A
seen in early March.
-9-
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [FGPET]
China’s total import volume of PET chips in Feb declined to 8,705 tons from Jan, down by 4,433 tons. Average
import price in Feb was at $1,799/ton, up by $170/ton on month. Export volume decreased from 9,445 tons to 5,707
tons, down by 3,738 tons or 39.6%. Net import volume in Feb was 3,000 tons. Average export price in Feb was at
$1,868/ton, increasing by $242/ton from Jan, $69/ton higher than the average import price in Feb.
Of all import sources in Feb, combined import volume from South Korea, Chinese Taiwan, Iran, Japan and USA
accounted for 71.1% of the total import volume, down by 14% from Jan.
1. Two direct-spinning POY units in Taicang restarted between 5-8 Mar with total capacity of 380kt/yr.
2. Early in the month one 200kt/yr direct-spinning POY unit restarted in Xiaoshan. The unit was taken off
Plant News for TA at end of Feb and mainly produces SD POY and FDY.
3. On 21 Mar, one 180kt/yr direct-spinning POY unit restarted in Xiaoshan. The unit was shut on 10 Mar.
CCFEI Comment
As for feedstock, With Central Bank of China raising interest rates higher and talks about the 5 percentage points
cut of textile export rebate rate, it is getting difficult for prices to remain at current high level. On the other hand,
the scheduled TA of more than 5,000kt PTA capacities will continue to lend support to the market.
As for supply, planned PTA turnarounds in Apr and startup of new downstream capacities may cushion the influence
from PET TAs that have started or will start, while next month with new supplies emerging prices may see adjustment.
As for downstream demand, players are quite sensitive to market changes recently given firm overseas demand
and approaching busy season. Therefore, once the market shows sign of strengthening, trading volume is expected to
increase instantly boosted by players’ buy-up sentiment.
To sum up, unfavorable economic environment combined with sluggish fiber demand continued to curb PET prices. In
H1 and mid Apr, PET sentiment is expected to soften but there will be limited space for FGPET to go down, and it is
possible that TAs of PTA units will help to improve the market.
- 10 -
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [PFY]
Polyester Filament
Contract Prices from Majors (yuan/ton)
26000 POY150D settled POY150D listed
POY150D FDY50D DTY150D DTY150D listed FDY50D listed
Time
Settled Listed Listed Listed 22000
28Feb-4Mar 15,100 15,100 19,100-19,500 16,500 18000
7Mar-11Mar 15,100 15,200 19,200-19,600 16,500
14000
14Mar-18Mar 15,100 15,200 19,200-19,600 16,500
21Mar-25Mar 15,050 15,200 19,200-19,600 16,500 10000
27Sep 27Oct 26Nov 26Dec 25Jan 24Feb 26Mar
28Mar-1Apr — 15,200 19,200-19,600 16,500 Y/T
In March, PFY market was dominated by minor corrections. Early March saw sporadic increases; in mid-Mar,
sentiment gradually softened, and in late March, prices corrected in weakness.
In early March, PFY market saw sporadic increases. POY sale/production ratios rose moderately on rebounding PTA
futures, so producers raised prices accordingly but most played cautiously. From 4 Mar, central prices hiked by 100-200
yuan/ton, followed by a few more raises. On 9 Mar, PTA futures weakened, exerting downward pressure on PFY, with
weakness first seen in some POY offers. In early March, offers for POY 150D/48F hiked from 14,700 yuan/ton to
14,900 yuan/ton.
In mid March, PFY prices trended downwards. Market started in weakness on 11 Mar. After the magnitude-9
earthquake on that afternoon, some PX plants were shut down, which greatly pushed up PX spot values. In the next few
days, PX soared to around $1,815/ton, but such strengthening failed to reach the polyester sector, where PFY prices
went stable to weak. By the end of mid-March, as PTA futures surged upwards on strong crude values, POY trading
sentiment slightly improved, but high-end FDY prices corrected downwards. In mid-March, POY 150D/48F prices
declined to 14,900 yuan/ton from 14,750 yuan/ton.
Late March saw weak corrections in PFY market. The tentative increases in POY prices in mid-March were of no help in
improving market sentiment, so POY central values slipped downwards in the first few days of late March. On 25 Mar, some POY
prices picked up tentatively given much pressure on PFY producers due to high-level feedstock settlements, whereas FDY sector
remained in weakness, although FDY liquidity was markedly better than that of POY and DTY. Near the month end, PFY market
saw more discounts, resulting in lower yarn prices, especially those of FDY. In late March, POY 150D/48F dropped from 14,750
yuan/ton to 14,600-14,700 yuan/ton.
PFY stocks in March decreased slightly, with POY at 15-20 days, FDY at 22-25 days, and DTY at 20-25 days.
Operation Status of Downstream Textile Sector
Jan Feb Mar Apr est.
Operating Rate 20% 20% 65% ↘
Fabric Stock 18 days 10 days 15 days ↘
Well-sold Products Silk-like fabrics produced on shuttle looms and shuttle-less looms
Despite energy-saving and emission-reducing campaigns in March, run rates of weaving & knitting mills grew to 65% as
producers didn’t follow power rationing measures. The campaign will continue in April, concerning more places. It is thus expected
that downstream run rates in April will hover around the current level.
Daily fabric transaction volume in Textile City of China kept expanding, rising from 3 million meters to 5 million
meters within the month. Products selling well include chiffon, printed or dyed fabric, jacquard fabric, etc. Meanwhile,
the processing cycle of printing and dying was lengthened due to power rationing measures.
Monthly International PFY Value Trend
West Europe ($/ton, DEL) USA ($/ton, DEL) Taiwan ($/ton, DEL)
167dt POY 167dt DTY 150D/48-132F POY 150D/48-132F DTY 230D POY 150D DTY
2,420-2,559↑ 2,905-3,043↑ 2,998-3,064→ 4,012-4,079→ 2,117-2,220↑ 2,288-2,391↑
PFY market in North America saw continued brisk transactions. In West Europe, PFY sentiment gradually improved,
while that in Taiwan remained in a stalemate.
- 11 -
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [PFY]
China exported 74.6kt of PFY in February 2011, down 30.2kt or 28.82% on month. The average export price was at
$2,193/ton, up $77/ton or 3.64% from January. China imported 10.2kt of PFY in February, down 4.6kt or 31.08% from
January. The average price of imported PFY was at $2,539/ton, down $135/ton or 5.05% on month.
Exports to Pakistan totaled 9.7kt in February, down 29.71% from January, ranking the first and accounting for
13.00% of the total in February. Exports to Turkey totaled 9.4kt in the month, ranking the second, down 22.31% on
month, and accounting for 12.60% of the total. South Korea, Brazil, Syria, Vietnam, Italy, etc. followed.
To sum up, PFY market will not improve in the short run, given relatively high prices at present. It makes some
sense for sellers to lower offers, thus paving way for future increase. When Guangdong Trade Fair opens, new orders
will increase, probably making it the right time to offload products.
- 12 -
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [PSF]
Polyester Staple
Contract Settlements and Nominations
17000
(yuan/ton)
Sinopec Private producers 15000
Month
(Delivered) (Ex-works) 13000
Jan settled 13700 13550 Sinopec(delivered)
11000
Private producers(ex-works)
Feb settled 15100 14900 9000
Mar settled 15000 14850 Y/T Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Apr listed 15100 -
Sinopec nominated its Apr contract price for 1.4D PSF at 15,100 yuan/ton (delivered). On 24 Mar, Sinopec
announced its settlement price for Mar at 15,000 yuan/ton.
PSF market showed an easing trend in March, with an accumulative decrease of 500-600 yuan/ton, amid strong
wait-and-see tone.
Early March: Since some major producers sold materials at low prices in early Mar, central PSF prices drifted
down visibly. Meanwhile, cotton and PTA rallied, and the market saw expanded trade volume transiently. After a round
of replenishment, with trading atmosphere softening, prices started to edge down. Mainstream talks for spot 1.4D PSF
in Jiangsu and Zhejiang decreased to 14,800-14,900 yuan/ton.
Mid March: Declining cotton prices had a certain impact on players’ confidence, so central trading prices of PSF
trended down steadily. Afterwards, the earthquake in Japan caused PX prices to surge up, but prices for polyester
products went stable amid long-short stalemate though activities remained stagnant. In Jiangsu and Zhejiang,
mainstream talks for 1.4D PSF were at 14,650-14,750 yuan/ton (ex-works), with an accumulative decrease of 150-200
yuan/ton.
Late March: PSF market moved downward further. Wait-and-see stance was stronger, as downstream users’ buying
interest was low. Traders offloaded stocks at lower prices one after another, so central prices moved down, and even
high settlements for feedstock failed to improve liquidity. Mainstream talks for 1.4D PSF inched down to 14,400-14,500
yuan/ton (ex-works), with an accumulative decrease of about 250 yuan/ton.
North America: Though PSF prices were at all-time high levels, demand didn’t shrink but strengthen month by
month. Garment, non-woven and filling material sectors ran sound, pushing up sales and production of local PSF
producers.
West Europe: Liquidity of local PSF producers was smooth by virtue of good demand. PSF demand from wiper-
oriented nonwoven sector was higher than expected, and demand from construction & geotextiles industry also
improved, while demand from automobile sector was steady.
- 13 -
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [PSF]
According to the statistics from China Customs, China’s import volume for PSF in February 2011 is 6.5kt, down
5.3kt from the previous month, and the average import price is at $1,862/ton, up $27/ton from January. China
exported 46.1kt of PSF in February 2011, down 45kt from previous month, with the average export price at
$1,627/ton, up $84/ton on month.
South Korea, Chinese Taiwan and Malaysia rank the top three regions that exported PSF into China Mainland in
February, and the top three export destinations of Chinese PSF are Pakistan, the United States and Syria.
After a round of procurement in early Mar, PSF market fell into a stalemate. With units restarted in succession,
run rates in PSF industry picked up. However, due to low sale/production ratio, inventory at the whole PSF industry was
piling up, with average level at about 3 weeks by the end of Mar. (Note: New formula for calculating operating rate has
been used since Jan 2011.)
CCFEI Comment
Feedstock: Global crude oil prices firmly stayed at above $100/bbl, and a spate of PTA units would be shut down in
Apr, so tight supply could not be solved in the short term. Thus, it is unlikely for PTA prices to slump in future.
Demand: Unsmooth sales for yarn led to high yarn inventory. Coupled with high capital pressure, many sellers
slashed prices to offload materials. Despite of low feedstock inventory, spun yarn producers purchased feedstock by
small parcels for PSF prices had been dropping.
Supply: With run rates up, producers had some inventory and faced sales pressure due to the length in PSF
market.
To sum up, bearish sentiment of downstream sectors dragged PSF prices down. It is the slow liquidity that is the
biggest obstacle for PSF market to turn better. Since downstream users have basically used up the feedstock
purchased previously, if PSF prices bottom out, a round of purchasing peak may occur.
- 14 -
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [Re-PSF]
Re-PSF
Hollow Re-PSF Value Trend (yuan/ton)
16500
Variety (6-15D siliconized) Trend Value 14000
3-D-Crimped Hollow in JZ
- 15 -
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [Re-PSF]
Statistics on Imported PET Scraps and Wastes into China (kt, $/ton)
Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Jan-Feb 2011 Jan-Feb 2010
Origin
Imp. Vol. Ave. Val. Imp. Vol. Ave. Val. Imp. Vol. Ave. Val. Imp. Vol. Ave. Val.
Japan 21.5 805 19.6 860 41.1 831 41.9 618
USA 15 765 8.8 795 23.8 776 24.5 598
Germany 8.4 769 4.7 807 13.1 782 16.3 536
Thailand 9.0 1082 6.8 1011 15.8 1052 15 643
Taiwan 3.1 833 1.9 860 5.1 843 16.9 557
Others 69.4 827 49.5 875 119 847 100.9 586
Total 126.5 831 91.3 870 217.8 847 215.7 591
According to China Customs, China's import volume of PET scraps and wastes in February is 91.3 kt, a decrease of
35.2 kt from January, while the average import price is at $870/ton, up by $39/ton on month.
The statistics show that import volume reduced somewhat in February, and average import price moved higher.
Japan ranks the first in all the countries and regions that exported flakes into China Mainland, followed by the USA,
Indonesia, Thailand, Germany, Mexico, Hongkong, South Korea, Spain and Peru. As for import price, the highest
numbers are for materials from Myanmar, followed by those from Sudan, Israel, Nigeria, the Philippines, Venezuela,
Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia and Tanzania. PET scraps and wastes are mainly imported in February by ‘general trade’
and ‘trade of processing with imported materials’.
Operation Status of Chinese Re-PSF Producers
1. One 150kt/yr polyester unit (producing cotton-type PSF, 3-D-crimped hollow PSF and low-
melt-point PSF) in Sichuan, which was shut down in Jan, was restarted on 1 Mar.
2. Cixi Santai restarted its recycled PFY unit in early Mar, involving a capacity of 130 tons/day.
Plant Operation
3. Yangzhou Ruiyue closed its unit on 8 Mar, and restarted it in mid Mar, involving a capacity of
400 tons/day.
4. Some producers in Cixi had been influenced by power rationing in Mar, and some producers in
Jiangyin also had received notice of power rationing.
Domestic
Jan Feb Mar Apr est.
producer
Operating rate 60% 35% 65% ↗
Re-PSF prices were weak in Mar. Sale/production ratios slid down, so inventory pressure on producers increased.
Cotton-type re-PSF producers saw inventory at less than 5 days and ran at around 50-70% capacities. Hollow re-PSF
producers saw inventory at about 20-30 days and operating rates at around 70-80%, while re-PFY producers held
inventory of about 10 days, with run rates at 70-90%.
CCFEI Comment
In March, re-PSF market softened continuously, and liquidity was stagnant in general given increasingly emerging
low prices.
From the view of cost, due to the slump of re-PSF prices in March, bottle flake prices met certain pressures.
Though prices for imported bottle flakes were firm before mid March, the numbers dropped later given more supplies
of homemade materials in Mar. And though the prices rebounded by the month end, it will be not sustainable with the
warming weather. Coupled with lower prices for imported materials and power rationing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the
market performance is not optimistic on the whole in the future.
As for supply/demand fundamental, inventory pressure on re-PSF producers increased amid lower re-PSF prices
and weak downstream sentiment. Though the talk of lower export rebates of textile products will benefit re-PSF
prices in the short run, downstream textile market will meet more obstacles in the long term, which thus casts a cloud
over the market outlook.
Generally speaking, as virgin PET market was sound amid higher Mar settlements at end Mar, which bolstered
cotton-type re-PSF market to stabilize, and also because of the coming busy-season for spun yarns in April, as well as
the power rationing, market mentality improved slightly. Moreover, in April, as many as 5,200 kt/yr PTA capacities will
be turned around, which will support virgin PET market a lot. As a result, re-PSF market will no be so bad despite not so
good in the future. Re-PSF producers should pay attention to related markets and macro economic situations, and
meantime control inventory cautiosly.
- 16 -
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [CPL]
Caprolactam
Contract Price (yuan/ton, $/ton) 4000
29000
Month Change Range Prev. Month 3500
25000 3000
RMB- Mar Settled ↑1100 29100-29200 28000-28100 2500
based 21000
Apr Listed ↑400 29200 28800 2000
RMB USD
USD- Mar Settled ↑305 3500-3520 3200-3210 17000 1500
based May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar
Apr Listed ↑90 3630-3650 3550 Y/T $/T
Asian caprolactam contract price for March was settled at $3,500-3,520/ton (CFR China, L/C 90 days), rising by
$305/ton from February. Nominations for April were raised, with the numbers for high-end CPL at $3,630-3,650/ton.
Sinopec announced settlement price for March contracts at 29,100-29,200 yuan/ton (D/A, solid, AA grade), an
increase of 1,100 yuan/ton from February settlement. DSM Nanjing issued settlement price for March at 29,200
yuan/ton, and list price for April from Sinopec was pegged at 29,200 yuan/ton.
- 17 -
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [CPL]
Average import price in February is at $2,930/ton, up 4.01% from January. The highest number for February is
$3,103/ton for ex-S.Korea cargoes, followed by $2,998/ton for ex-Mexico materials. The number from U.S. was at
$2,840/ton, the lowest.
China imported 40.7 kt of caprolactam in Feburary, and together with domestic production of around 44.5 kt,
China’s apparent consumption in February is 85.2 kt, down 10.8% from January.
In March, run rates of CPL units at home and abroad increased a little, and producers’ inventories were still low.
Operating rates of downstream nylon chip units were stable at around 70%. Conventional-spinning chip unit ran at low
rate, so overall demand was modest. Operating rates of nylon textile yarn producers were sound at around 80%; cord
fabric plants were running at around 60% capacity. Generally speaking, downstream demand was modest.
CCFEI Comment
Supply: Overall, supply tightness will ease in April. Taiwan’s CPDC resumed normal production on its CPL unit at
Hsiaokang and Japan’s Sumitomo will restart 85kt/yr CPL unit in April, though Ube Industries will take a planned
turnaround during March-April. So, tightness will ease slightly on the whole.
Demand: In March, converters’ operating rates were stable on month. Presently, high-speed spinning chip
producers were running at 75-80% capacity, while conventional-spinning chip makers were operating at 60-70%, with
unsound rates at fishnet-yarn and staple-fiber producers. Downstream nylon textile filament plants were operating at
around 80% capacity, with the rates of cord fabric plants at 65-70%. Overall run rates decreased from last month.
Looking forward, demand will not be optimistic.
Cost: Crude oil and benzene values remained strong in March. NYMEX crude values broke through $100/bbl mark
during March, and hovered at above $100/bbl; Asian benzene values dropped to $1,150/ton FOB Korea mark; and
European benzene fell to $1,240/ton. Looking forward, crude and benzene prices are likely to range bound strongly.
To sum up, feedstock values are firm, tight supply for CPL eases, and downstream demand is not strong. Looking
forward, CPL market will make a range-bound in the short run. In the medium term, the market is very likely to make
corrections.
- 18 -
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [PA CHIP]
Nylon Chip
Average Price (yuan/ton, $/ton) 33000
31000 Conventional H-speed
Month Up/down Range Prev. Month
29000
Conventional March → 30000 30000 27000
25000
March ↑100 32100 32000 23000
High-speed Y/T Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
USD ↑20 3920 3900
In Mar, with tight availability, CPL market prices surged to $3,600/ton. Thus nylon chip producers tended to raise
the prices further given rising cost pressure. However, weakening downstream demand frustrated the uptrend of the
market in Mar. Given such impact, most nylon chip producers encountered stagnation with expectation of larger negative
territory.
As for the market, offers for Taiwan-origin high-speed spinning nylon chips were at $3,980-4,050/ton by end Mar.
Tight feedstock availability drove nylon chip producers to hold on to high offers, but downstream buyers only bid
cautiously, with low end indications at $3,800/ton. As for homemade nylon chips, with much higher CPL prices, chip
producers mostly raised their offers, but the space was limited given softening demand, hereinto, negotiations for high-
speed spinning SD nylon chips were at 31,300-33,000 yuan/ton (D/A 90 days, delivered) by end Mar, with those in
Zhejiang at the high end and in Jiangsu and Shandong at the low end. Demand from nylon textile yarn sector retreated,
suppressing the uptrend. Major nylon chip producers were running at 70-80% of full capacity, with low inventories. And
in conventional spinning nylon chip market, cash-based prices were generally at 29,500-30,500 yuan/ton by end Mar, and
producers kept offers high due to larger loss coverage, while demand from fish-net yarn and staple fiber producers was
lackluster with run rates at majors only at 60%, suppressing the uptrend.
In Mar, higher CPL prices supported Taiwan-based nylon chip producers and traders to quote higher at $3,950-
4,050/ton. And it is expected that nylon chip prices will stay high, as CPL prices are unlikely to drop in a certain period.
Nevertheless, demand from downstream nylon textile yarn sector started to retreat, so negative impact will turn up on
nylon chip market if nylon fiber prices fail to follow up.
- 19 -
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [PA CHIP]
- 20 -
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [NFY]
Nylon Filament
Average Price (yuan/ton) 38500
36000
Month Change Price Prev. Month 33500 FDY7 0D/24F
31000
FDY70D/24F March ↑400 36700 36300 28500 DT Y70D/24 F
26000
DTY70D/24F March ↑500 38000 37500 Y/T Oc t Nov D ec Jan Feb Mar
As for costs, the higher prices for CPL and nylon chips imposed more cost pressure on nylon fiber producers, and
thus prices for main specs of nylon textile yarn continued to increase, but the markup decreased a lot compared with
last month, mainly due to weaker demand from textile sector. Non-textile yarn prices, however, performed better,
mainly due to the too low values previously. As for inventory, most nylon fiber producers operated on a hand-to-mouth
basis, so the inventory was low, with 15-day inventory on average. As for the future, nylon chip market will still show a
stable-to-firm trend, so cost pressure on nylon fiber producers will not ease, and thus nylon fiber prices may be pushed
up.
As for the market fundamental, downstream converters only showed lusterless purchasing appetites given much
higher feedstock costs, as well as power brownout measures.
FDY: Liquidity slowed down due to weaker demand from downstream weaving and warp-knitting mills, and with
ample order-intakes and low inventory, the prices moved up early this month but later, they rolled over or even dropped
slightly, suppressed by lackluster demand. On the other hand, producers still ran at as high as 80-90% capacities. In
Shengze and Jiaxing markets, SD FDY 70D/24F was traded at 36,500-37,000 yuan/ton (D/A, 90-180 days) by the
month end, up by 500 yuan/ton given high feedstock costs. FD specs also performed well, with mainstream FD FDY
70D/24F traded at 37,500 yuan/ton. As for fine-denier specs, SD FDY 40D/12F was traded at 39,000-40,000
yuan/ton, while FD FDY 40D/34F was offered at 40,000-41,000 yuan/ton. Prices mostly stabilized.
DTY: In Mar, despite weaker demand from knitgoods sector, producers still raised the prices on rising feedstock
prices, though the markup decreased notably. This month, prices for high-end DTY70D/24F were at 39,000-39,500
yuan/ton (D/A, 90-180 days), and those for medium-end products moved up by 500 yuan/ton to 37,500-39,000
yuan/ton (cash for the low end and D/A 180 days for the high end). Low-quality DTY 70D/24F was priced higher by 500
at above 35,500 yuan/ton. Fine-denier 30D/10F was generally priced at 42,500-44,500 yuan/ton. Downstream, overall
run rate of nylon-fed circular knitting and covering machines were at 50-60%, but buying interest retreated slightly.
In cord fabric sector, mainstream prices rose to 36,500-37,000 yuan/ton. Prices surged by 1,000 yuan/ton on
higher feedstock values, but liquidity was still slow. Run rates of large-sized cord fabric producers were only at 60-70%
with moderate inventory. Mainstream prices for monofilament 30D moved up by 1,000 yuan/ton to 36,500-37,000
yuan/ton, due to stable demand from textile sector and passable profit margins. For nylon staple fiber, mainstream
prices for 1.5D climbed up by 500 yuan/ton to 32,000-32,500 yuan/ton due to low inventory, despite lusterless demand.
Taiwan Market: Downstream demand was sound; Due to higher feedstock costs, the prices surged further, with run
rates at above 90%.
European Market: In Mar, liquidity in knitgoods and seamless garment markets was slow, and demand from weaving
mills and warp-knitting mills were mostly subdued. However, demand from weft-knitting mills was stable.
- 21 -
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [NFY]
According to CCFEI’s statistics, China’s nylon filament production in February is around 103kt, with operating rate
at around 65-70% on average. Import volume and export volume decreased by about 3.1kt and 2.9kt respectively in
February, so apparent consumption decreased by around 13.8kt month-on-month. Production in March is expected to
increase on the back of the startups of new units, while inventory will be moderate.
CCFEI Comment
In March, prices for nylon textile yarns moved up to relieve the cost pressure in line with rising feedstock prices,
and inventory was still moderate despite the mild increase, while those for non-textile products such as cord fabric,
staple fiber and fishing-net yarn also hiked to ease cost pressure, and the markup was larger than that of textile yarns
due to bigger loss coverage. Looking forward, the factors affecting nylon yarn price trend are as follows:
Cost: With tight supply for CPL and nylon chips, feedstock costs for nylon filament yarn continued to move up, despite
weaker demand from downstream textile products and cord fabric sectors. As for the future, as record highs for the month-
end feedstock values have imposed more pressure on nylon fiber producers, it is expected that downstream yarn makers will
have to raise the prices for their products further with better demand from their buyers.
Supply: Though demand from downstream sectors weakened, large-sized nylon fiber producers still ran at 80-90%
capacities, citing their low inventories of about 15 days. Coupled with some new capacities, supply increased slightly.
However, some producers may not be active in production given current high feedstock costs and their meager profit
margins, and non-textile yarn makers will also operate cautiously given the lusterless liquidity. So, run rates are hard to
improve further.
Demand: With power rationing in some regions, downstream nylon textiles makers showed less interest in
purchasing and mainly digested previous stocks, while industrial items makers also purchased from hand to mouth. As
for the future, high feedstock costs will impose heavier operating pressure on downstream converters, so the sentiment
is unlikely to improve much, but the demand will not be so bad supported by rigid demand and buy-rise intention of
downstream buyers.
To sum up, nylon fiber producers had to raise their prices in March in line with higher feedstock costs, and the uptrend will
continue in the future, as feedstock prices are not likely to drop sharply. As for fundamental, run rates at nylon fiber producers
will increase slightly given their low inventories and the startups of new units. However, downstream buyers will react cautiously
given so high prices for nylon fibers and their low profit margins, which will prevent demand from improving further. On the
whole, nylon fiber prices will pick up on the back of high feedstock prices, while producers’ sale/production ratios will continue to
be weak, which will curb the uptrend of nylon fiber market in April.
- 22 -
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [C3]
Propylene
Price Trends of Propylene vs Crude Oil
$/T $/bbl
1600 110
1550 105
1500 100
1450 95
1400 90
1350 85
1300 80
1250 75
1200 70
1150 C3(FOB Korea) WTI Crude 65
1100 60
26Nov
3Dec
10Dec
17Dec
24Dec
31Dec
7Jan
14Jan
21Jan
28Jan
4Feb
11Feb
18Feb
25Feb
4Mar
11Mar
18Mar
25Mar
1Apr
Propylene Market Trend in March
Asia:
Week 1: With tight supply and robust demand for FOB cargoes, FOB Korea benchmark surged by $40/ton to
$1,501/ton, hitting a record high since 13 August 2008. Week 2: FOB Korea benchmark opened high and rocketed to
$1,510/ton due to tight spot supply. In South Korea, there were no spots to export, as the region entered into
turnaround season. Week 3: After Japan’s earthquake, supply concerns emerged, which led to strong demand for FOB-
based cargoes. So, FOB Korea propylene values ascended by $49/ton to $1,550/ton. Week 4: Backed by tight supply,
FOB Korea propylene prices rose by $21/ton to $1,571/ton. Traders were looking for FOB Korea-based cargoes to
offset tightness caused by Japan’s earthquake. However, there were no offers in Korea, as steam crackers in the
region entered into turnaround season. Week 5: FOB Korea propylene closed the week at $1,571/ton, flat to the week
before. Tightness can be seen in Korea due to turnaround season in the region.
Propylene values closed March at $1,570-1,572/ton FOB Korea.
Europe:
In March, PGP spot market made corrections and fluctuated significantly due to unstable global situation though
spot supply was still tight. In early March, with firm energy prices, tight supply and strong downstream demand, PGP
contract price for March was settled at Euro 1,185/ton, up Euro 80/ton from February. Affected by political unrest in
Libya, PGP supply was restricted. In mid March, PGP spot prices moved down, affected by turmoil in Middle East,
Japan’s natural disaster and unstable energy market. In late March, PGP spot prices rebounded on the back of
increasing costs caused by political unrest in Middle East and Libya and Japan’s earthquake.
PGP spot values closed March at Euro 1,230-1,235/ton CIF NWE.
USA:
H1 March: The markdown of propylene contract price for March was less than market players’ expectation due to
tight supply, firming chemical grade and refining grade propylene. PP producers had robust demand for PGP. H2 March:
Propylene prices continued rising in line with robust demand from PP and acrylonitrile sectors and higher feedstock
values. The propylene prices moved up steadily and most market players thought the prices would maintain ongoing
uptrend in the short run.
PGP spot values closed March at 81.500-82.000 cts/lb FOB USG.
-23 -
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net February 2011 [ACN]
Acrylonitrile
USD-based Weekly Spot Prices CFR FE ($/ton) Spot ACN Price Trend
Week Time Price 2700
2500
Week 1 31Jan-4Feb 2435 2300
2100
Week 2 7Feb-11Feb 2448 1900
Week 3 14Feb-18Feb 2545 1700
1500 Europe FE USA
Week 4 21Feb-25Feb 2540 1300
Monthly Ave. in Feb 2492 Y/T 20Aug 10Sep 30Sep 22Oct 12Nov 3Dec 24Dec 14Jan 4Feb 25Feb
In Asia, Week 1, Asian spot values increased $30/ton to $2,435/ton CFR NEA and $2,440/ton CFR SEA
respectively. Despite a sluggish liquidity ahead of Spring Festival, Asian prices stayed high. Week 2, during the Lunar
New Year holidays, the market was quiet but spot prices kept climbing on tight supply to $2,447.50/ton CFR FE, up by
17.50/ton. Week 3, soaring of major feedstock propylene tightened ACN supply, with Asian prices climbing to above
$2,500/ton CFR FE, up by 4% to $2,545/ton. Week 4, as Japan’s Asahi Kasei offered two 1000-ton March-delivery
China-bound cargoes at $2,450/ton, Asian ACN prices decreased $5/ton to $2,540/ton CFR FE.
In Europe, Week 1, bolstered by spot tightness and rising feedstock values, ACN spot prices surged by $20 to
$2,395-2,400/ton CIF Med. Week 2, NWE ACN spot prices rose by $35/ton, firstly breaching the mark of $2,400/ton
and then climbing to $2,430-2,435/ton CIF Med, driven by tight spots. Week 3, on the back of a bullish Asian market
and the short spot supply, prices increased $15 to $2,445-2,450/ton CIF Med. Week 4, given a firm fundamental, spot
prices moved up by $30/ton and assessments were pegged at $2,475-2,480/ton CIF Med.
In USA, Week 1, although participants in Asia mostly left the market for holidays, US ACN market still faced a
supply tightness and spot prices increased $32 to $2,380/ton FOB USG. Week 2, the short supply and robust demand
pushed prices up by $45 to $2,420-2,430/ton FOB USG, close to all-time high. Meanwhile, demand from major
downstream sectors still maintained a healthy state. Week 3, spot prices kept moving higher and closed at $2,460-
2,470/ton FOB USG. Week 4, with some spots traded at a higher level of $2,600/ton, spot prices breached earlier
record and surged by $85/ton to $2,545-2,555/ton FOB USG.
- 24 -
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [ACN]
Feedstock: In March, global crude market was amid fluctuations. Especially in mid-March, crude values firstly
plunged to $97/bbl due to the strong earthquake in Japan, and then rallied to over $101/bbl and hovered at around
$103-105/bbl. NYMEX crude prices closed at $106.72/bbl by month end. Asian propylene prices surged up through
March. After the earthquake, demand for FOB cargoes increased in line with greater worries about supply, and FOB
Korea prices thus rose to $1,566/ton from $1,471/ton early this month. March propylene market in China firmed up and
mainstream trading prices in Shandong climbed to 11,850-12,000 yuan/ton.
Supply: Operating rates of domestic ACN units changed little in March and major northeastern producers offered
a stable spot supply. In Feb, China imported 48.15kt of ACN, down by 12.0kt from Jan. In Mar, as cargoes supply
remained short and spots were still limited, sellers maintained price-hiking anticipation, but downstream players
operated with caution. April-delivery cargoes remained firm still and offers for deep-sea cargoes stood high, while
buyers purchased materials prudently and it is predicted import volume won’t be large. However, given a stable domestic
supply, the total supply will be still at a standstill.
Demand: Chinese acrylic fiber producers generally kept run rate stable. ABS majors are operating their plants
steadily, with most at high rates while several at low rates. Major acrylamide plants are running at 50-60% capacity and
had a lukewarm demand for ACN. In general, March demand weakened somewhat amid stability and participants tended
to sideline with a lackluster buying appetites. April demand is expected to mainly range bound.
To summarize, in Mar, domestic ACN market ranged bound at high levels and following-up momentum weakened, but
sellers still held offers firm boosted by limited imports and high USD-based prices. In Apr, a ranging-bound stance is
expected to continue, and some traders may further hike prices given still high costs for certain cargoes.
- 25 -
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [AF]
Acrylic Fiber
1.5D Staple Prices (yuan/ton)
Y/T Weekly Average Price
Week Time Prices
Week 1 28Feb-4Mar 25020 27000
- 26 -
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [AF]
Based on the statistics from the Customs General Administration, China totally imported 12,742 tons of acrylic
fiber in February, down by 6,367 tons or 33.32%from January’s 19,109 tons, and down by 4.78% from 13,381 tons year
on year.
By import origin in February, the top three countries and regions are Japan, Chinese Taiwan and South Korea, with
their respective shares at 34.52%, 11.26% and 11.07%, which are followed by Turkey and Germany, with their shares at
10.61% and 9.44% respectively.
By import mode, ‘general trade’ covered 5,460 tons in February, accounting for 42.85% of the total import volume.
‘Processing trade’ covered 5,347 tons, accounting for 41.96% of the total.
China totally exported 172 tons of acrylic fiber in February, down by 260 tons from January’s 432 tons.
(ton, $/ton)
Acrylic Tow Imports by Origin( )
Jan 2011 Feb in 2011 Total in 2011
Origin
Imp. Volume Imp. Price Imp. Volume Imp. Price Imp. Volume Imp. Price
South Korea 1773 3124 617 3079 2391 3113
Japan 424 2929 700 3196 1123 3095
Taiwan 1423 3009 1094 2930 2517 2974
Belarus 1442 2503 -- -- 1442 2503
Others 4762 2676 4487 2985 9249 2826
Total 9824 2790 6898 3006 16722 2880
Acrylic Staple Imports by Origin (ton, $/ton)
Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Total in 2011
Origin
Imp. Volume Imp. Price Imp. Volume Imp. Price Imp. Volume Imp. Price
South Korea 1178 3219 793 3208 1971 3215
Japan 3956 3545 3606 3692 7562 3615
Taiwan 1901 3009 340 2606 2242 2948
Thailand 314 3183 362 2920 676 3042
Others 1718 3157 580 3210 2299 3171
Total 9068 3304 5681 3461 14750 3365
Acrylic Top Imports by Origin (ton, $/ton)
Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Total in 2010
Origin
Imp. Volume Imp. Price Imp. Volume Imp. Price Imp. Volume Imp. Price
South Korea -- -- -- -- -- --
Japan 3 18957 92 2971 95 3435
Taiwan 70 3664 -- -- 70 3664
Others 145 3084 70 3803 215 3319
Total 217 3472 163 3330 380 3411
- 27 -
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [AF]
In March, domestic acrylic fiber market kept climbing. Bolstered by firm costs and healthy sale/production ratio, AF
makers mostly hiked offers in mid-March and spot talks moved higher further. However, downstream buyers slowed
following-up steps with the rising AF values, and yarn liquidity was sluggish amid a thicker wait-and-see sentiment. By
month end, producers mostly announced rollover settlement and nominations, only slight pickups for some tight products.
In the future, the upward momentum will weaken and the market will tend to range bound. April market is expected to
range bound at high levels amid lukewarm activities, but some popular products will still keep salable. The details are as
follows:
Production & Sale: In February, the run rates of Chinese producers dipped slightly. According to statistics, China's
acrylic fiber production totaled 54.41kt in February, down by 5.56kt from 59.97kt in January and down by 1.43% year on
year from 55.2kt. Sales volume in February slumped to 53.17kt from January’s 58.92kt, down by 9.76% on month but
1.17kt or 2.25% higher year on year from 52.0kt of last February. Average sale/production ratio of AF industry was
97.72% in February 2011, dropping slightly from January’s 98.25%.
Inventory: Though domestic production slumped in February, inventories continued to grow as sales were low.
According to statistics, the inventory level of the whole industry was at around 13.8kt by the end of February, a month-
on-month increase of 1.16kt from 13.8kt of January but a year-on-year drop of 18kt from 3.04kt of February 2010.
Apparent Consumption: In February, AF production in China decreased significantly; import volume also plunged,
while export volume dipped slightly year-on-year. Based on these, apparent consumption decreased by 14.84% to 66.98 kt
in February, from January’s 78.65kt, and down by 2.08% from 68.4kt of February 2010.
- 28 -
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [AF]
- 29 -
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [ABS]
ABS
Chinese ABS Production Status in March 2011 (Unit: kt/yr)
Producer Capacity Major Grade Stock Run Rate Remark
LG Yongxing 600 121H Low High Cut runs in late December 2010
Zhenjiang Chimei 450 707K, 757K Low High Restarted after New Year’s Day
Jilin Petrochem 190 0215A Normal 100%
Zhenjiang GPPC 250 D180, D190 Low High Restarted after New Year’s Day
FCFC Ningbo 360 15A1, 12A1 Normal 80%
One-month maintenance from early
Daqing Petrochem 100 750A Normal 100%
July
Gaoqiao Petrochem 200 Low 85% One line down for T/A
Old line shut down on 21 March; and
Panjin Ethylene 50 CH510 Low 40-50%
runs at low rates now
Changzhou Shinho 70 AC800, AC810 Normal 100% Maintenance during 14-19 Apr, 2009
Lanzhou Petrochem 50 301 Normal 40% New line closed, old one in operation
Yield on-spec products from 1 Nov.
Tianjin Dagu 200 DGMJ47 Low 90%
2010
In March, run rates of ABS units in East China were at around 80-95%, and major units in Northeast China mostly ran
at 100% capacity, with individuals operating at low rates.
Asia:
Week 1: There were no firm bids in ABS market, with assessments unchanged at $2,308/ton (CFR, China).
However, backed by too fast hikes of feedstock values in Asia, offers were heard at above $2,400/ton (CFR, China/
SEA).
Week 2: Asian ABS prices remained stable, with CFR offers at $2,350/ton or above the level in line with higher
prices of butadiene and acrylonitrile. Producers and traders said buyers refused to accept current too high price level.
Week 3: Backed by higher feedstock values, Asian ABS prices rose by $22/ton to $2,330/ton (CFR, China) month-
on-month. In early the third week, Japan’s earthquake caused tight supply concerns, which pushed styrene prices up
sharply. However, the prices retreated, as styrene producers in Japan didn’t hit by the earthquake.
Week 4: With bearish ABS market and decreasing offers, Asian ABS prices dropped by $40/ton to $2,270/ton
(CFR China) and $2,280/ton (CFR SEA).
Europe:
H1 Mar: With continuous hikes of feedstock values, European ABS producers issued higher contract nominations
by Eur80-120/ton, but buyers refused producers to pass on high feedstock costs to them.
H2 Mar: European ABS producers expected that feedstock butadiene contract prices for April will rise by
Eur135/ton due to tight supply at that time caused by the turnaround on butadiene units and steam crackers and strong
downstream demand. However, contract prices for styrene were expected to move down.
And ABS prices closed March at $2,335-2,345/ton CFR NWE.
The US:
In March, the US ABS prices were stable-to-firm supported robust demand. Feedstock values remained on high-
position on the whole, though styrene market softened a little. ABS producers said the cost increases need to pass on
to consumers, but they were worried that a significant hike might force consumers to purchase other plastic products
instead of ABS.
And inj grade ABS closed March at 124-126 cts/lb (delivered, rail) in the USA.
- 30 -
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net Mar 2011 [MDI & PTMEG]
Pure MDI
Contract Price (yuan/ton, $/ton) 24000 2800
In Mar, domestic pure MDI market ranged bound following the hikes at first. Prices for direct-supply materials
were at 20,500-22,000 yuan/ton, while spot goods were traded at around 21,500-22,000 yuan/ton by month end in East
China, with central values at 21,700 yuan/ton or so and higher numbers for small parcels delivered, and in South China,
trading prices were at 21,500-22,000 yuan/ton, with high end for NPU-origin goods and upward revisions for small
parcels, deals on credit and on a D/A basis.
As for demand, downstream operating rates were moderate, hereinto, that at PU slurry sector was at about 80%;
that at PU resin sector dropped slightly; that at TPU sector was at 70% or so; that at spandex sector was relatively
higher. However, some pure MDI producers tended to lower the prices given weak downstream demand as downstream
converters mainly purchased from hand to mouth. Traders met poor sales, mainly supplying for regular buyers, and they
mostly held on to the prices given high cost pressure, despite the difficulties to raise the prices on muted demand.
As for supply, Japan’s earthquake in early-to-mid Mar did not impact NPU’s Japan-based plant a lot, but its plant
located in Rui’An, Zhejiang province was in unstable operation in Mar, and at the month end, its Japan-based 130 kt/yr
plant was shut down. However, the market reacted insipidly towards the turnaround. In late Mar, Apr nominations
gradually came out, with different increases. Wanhua settled Mar contract higher by 1,000 yuan/ton, thus distributors
mulled up their offers. But, trading prices still lagged behind. With the holiday around the corner, suppliers mainly
maintained stable offers amid lusterless sentiment.
Import & Export in Feb (Ton, $)
1 6 00 0
Imp. Vol. Imp. Val. Exp. Vol. Exp. Val. 1 4 00 0
Japan 4868 11674291 205 598575
1 2 00 0
1 0 00 0
S. Korea 2398 5631129 17 48389 8 00 0
6 00 0
USA 67 149899 0 0
A p r Ju n A ug O ct D ec Feb
Others 1153 3054749 3401 6824908 Ton
On 11 Mar, Yantai Wanhua’s integrated MDI project started up in Yantai Economic Development Zone.
NPU’s Nanyo-based MDI unit was not influenced obviously by the earthquake on 11 Mar due to its far distance from
seismic origin, so its production was relatively normal and future supply is not restricted for the moment.
Bay Material Science planned to invest €100 million on its MDI plant in Brunsbüttel industrial park in Germany.
After the expansion, the capacity is expected to reach 420 kt/yr from the former 200 kt/yr, and its TDI unit will also
be transformed to produce pure MDI.
Due to power rationing in Zhejiang, NPU’s Rui’an-based 50 kt/yr MDI rectification unit was shut down on 18 Mar,
and resumed operation on around 23 Mar.
BASF’s Chongqing-based 400 kt/yr MDI project was approved officially, and it is expected to start up in 2014.
Shutdown plans from several MDI producers since May: 200kt/yr unit in Yantai for 3-4 weeks in mid May at Yantai
Wanhua; 60kt/yr unit in Omuta from 11 May to 13 Jun at Mitsubishi; 70kt/yr and 130kt/yr units in turn for about 6
weeks in early May at Japan’s NPU; 160kt/yr fractionation unit planned in Shanghai in Apr-May at Huntsman, with
details pending.
NPU’s Nanyo-based 130kt/yr unit was shutdown due to equipment failure in late Mar, and would be restarted in Jul-
Aug at latest.
-31 -
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net Mar 2011 [MDI & PTMEG]
PTMEG
Contract Price (yuan/ton, $/ton) 32000 3800
Month Change Range Prev. Month 30000 RMB USD 3600
28000 3400
Mar Settled ↗ 28500-32000 28000-30500 26000 3200
RMB
24000 3000
Apr Listed ↗ 30500-34000 29500-33000 22000 2800
20000 2600
Mar Settled ↗ 3700-4100 3520-3800
USD Y/T MarAprMayJun Jul AugSep OctNovDec Jan FebMar $/T
Apr Listed ↗ 3900-4300 3750-4100
In Mar, central PTMEG prices ranged bound following the hikes at first on the back of high BDO costs. Downstream
spandex producers showed fewer acceptances towards higher PTMEG prices given thinner profit margins on softening
sale/production ratios, but in line with higher Mar nominations from Taiwan’s Dairen Chemical and its firm attitude,
contract prices hiked on the whole, and with more orders signed at surged numbers, central PTMEG prices stabilized at
29,500-31,000 yuan/ton. As for non-spandex sectors, PTMEG prices also hiked backed by higher feedstock values and
better downstream demand. Homemade MW-2000 materials were offered at 31,000-32,000 yuan/ton, while imported
materials were quoted at 33,000-34,000 yuan/ton. MW-1000 materials were mainly imported, with tight availability, and
its offers were pegged at 34,000-36,000 yuan/ton, with high-end values for Mitsubishi- and BASF-origin cargoes.
Imports in Feb (Ton, $) 13000
Imp. Volume Imp. Value 11000
Japan 126 508603 9000
7000
Taiwan 4457 15860928
5000
S. Korea 473 1988411 3000
Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb
Others 587 1803057 Ton
In early Mar, Taiwan’s Dairen Chemical announced that it planned to build a 30kt/yr BDO unit and another related
unit in Jiangsu Yangzhou Chemical Industrial Park.
When the earthquake hit Japan on 11 Mar, Mitsubishi Chemical immediately closed its 100kt/yr BDO unit and
35kt/yr related unit, and the units resumed operations right after the disaster.
MCC Advanced Polymers (Ningbo)’s 25kt/yr PTMEG unit was shut down in late Mar for a 6-week turnaround.
Japanese Mitsubishi Chemical’s 100kt/yr BDO unit and 35kt/yr related unit were shut down as planned in late Mar
for a 6-7-week turnaround.
Hyosung Spandex (China) initially planned to turn around its 30kt/yr PTMEG unit in Zhapu, Jiaxing for annual
maintenance with duration of about 15 days.
CCFEI Comment
Pure MDI: In Apr spot pure MDI market, it is expected that traders will raise their offers given high cost
pressure, while downstream demand will improve little. On one hand, downstream buyers will show limited acceptances
towards higher feedstock costs, as the prices for their products are hard to hike. On the other hand, downstream
demand has seen no significant improvement on the whole. Though many pure MDI suppliers have announced shutdown
plans, downstream converters react insipidly, which indicates their pessimistic outlook towards pure MDI market. And
they will not purchase initiatively with the lack of favorable profit margins. Furthermore, they will be cautious about
placing long-term orders with an uncertain uptrend for pure MDI. It is expected that prices for direct-supply pure MDI
will hike to 21,500-22,500 yuan/ton, while central spot values may also climb to 22,000 yuan/ton. If supply shrinks in H2
Apr following the shutdowns, prices may stay firm. Otherwise, prices will drop in line with passable supply but weak
demand.
PTMEG: Spandex producers showed certain resistance towards higher PTMEG prices given their shrinking profit
margins in Mar, but PTMEG producers still showed strong intentions to raise the prices on the back on high cost
pressure resulting from steady BDO offers at 22,500-24,000 yuan/ton on its tight availability. By end Mar, Taiwan’s
Dairen Chemical announced Apr nominations at $3,900/ton, and Mitsubishi Chemical settled the prices at 32,500
yuan/ton following the shutdowns of its two units in Japan and Ningbo. Coupled with some PTMEG orders signed at
increased numbers, PTMEG prices for Apr were pushed up to 30,500-33,000 yuan/ton.
-32 -
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [Spandex]
Spandex
Offers from Producers (yuan/kg)
98000
20D 30D 40D 70D 20D 30D 40D
78000
High 80-84 70-74 61-65 61-65
58000
Medium 77-80 66-69 58-60 58-60
38000
Low 73-76 64-65 54-57 55-57 Y/T
Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar
March witnessed central spandex prices gradually drop. In early Mar, spandex prices were stable on the whole,
backed by high crude futures that breached $100/bbl and increasing costs on spandex producers with tightening
PTMEG availability, as well as the optimistic market outlook amid the busy season. However, due to high prices for key
textile feedstock that absorbed more capitals from most traders and downstream mills and rising inventories at
spandex producers resulting from the weak spandex demand on suppressed terminal orders, a few traders started to
offer discounts from mid Mar, despite still stable spandex values. Thus, more low-priced spandex became available and
central spot prices fell in general. Meantime, downstream converters were more cautious about purchasing amid heavier
bearish outlook. Given such impact, spandex suppliers tended to sell at lower prices. In late Mar, with lusterless spot
trading and rising spandex inventories, many spandex suppliers provided more promotions, and thus mainstream trading
prices gradually moved towards the low end of the range with widening price gap.
Weekly Spot Average (yuan/ton)
Week Time 20D 40D 20D (M) 20D 20D (M) 40D
- 33 -
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [Spandex]
Cost: With fewer acceptances towards higher PTMEG prices from spandex producers on their softening
sale/production ratios, price revision on new PTMEG orders were impacted somewhat, but by end Mar, given higher Apr
nominations for PTMEG from Taiwan’s Dairen Chemical on high BDO values with some orders signed at hiked numbers, as
well as higher Mar contract settlement and Apr nomination from Wanhua for pure MDI, operating costs on spandex
producers will increase further in April.
Demand: In March, spandex demand was still weak as downstream converters were less active in production given
the lack of orders from terminal market resulting from softening prices for key textile feedstock, while at the same
time, converters became more cautious about purchasing with the decrease of mainstream spandex values. However, as
stocks at traders and downstream will be soon used up, demand may expand in the future.
Supply: Though demand may increase in the future in line with higher run rates at downstream mills and the
inventory depletion at distributors, supply will still be ample given heavier inventory pressure at spandex suppliers on
weak terminal demand and softening spandex sentiment.
To sum up: Inventory pressure at spandex producers further increased at current high levels, while downstream
mills and distributors frequently talked the prices done for each deal. Given such impact, some spandex producers are
still likely to mull down the prices to relieve the pressures, but as feedstock costs will increase in April, which will
impose more operating costs on spandex producers, and demand is probably to improve with the use-up of previous
stocks, it is expected that spandex market will gradually stabilize from current weakness in April.
- 34 -
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [Pulp & Linter]
Viscose Feedstock
Market Price for Chinese Viscose Feedstock (yuan/ton)
80000
23000
75000
21500
70000 20000
65000 18500
60000 17000
55000 15500
50000 14000
mt Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Y/T 30Oct 23Nov 17Dec 10Jan 3Feb 27Feb 23Mar
Pie Chart for Cotton Pulp Production Shares in China by Province in March
4% 4%
18%
20% Sichuan
Xinjiang
Hubei
Henan
5% Jilin
Shandong
19% Hebei
14% Others
16%
- 35 -
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [Pulp & Linter]
Others — — — — — —
Total Vol. /Ave.
16,778 1,153 11,891 1,240 28,670 1,189
Val.
Based on the data from China's Customs, cotton linter imports to China in February 2011 totaled 11,891 tons, with
the average import price at $1,240/ton, up by $87/ton from January. The top three countries that exported cotton
linter to China in February are in order of India, Uzbekistan and the USA, with the average prices at $1,341/ton,
$1,210/ton and $1,130/ton separately.
TFN: 14042000
Others — — — — — —
Total Vol./Ave.
95,111 1,774 63,967 1,925 159,079 1,835
Val.
Based on the data from China's Customs, dissolving-grade wood pulp imports to China in February 2011 totaled
63,967 tons, with the average import price at $1,925/ton, up by $151/ton from January. The top three exporters to
China in February are in order of Brazil, Canada, and the USA, with the export volumes at 18,078 tons, 13,305 tons and
8,894 tons respectively, and the average export prices at $1,940/ton, $2,079/ton and $1,635/ton separately.
TFN: 47020000
CCFEI Comment
Demand for cotton linter was weak on falling prices of cotton spots and futures, as well as the popularity of paper
pulp. In March, cotton linter sentiment softened greatly, with prices for regular linter dropping from 12,000 yuan/ton to
below 10,000 yuan/ton, and those for filament-grade cotton linter declining from 13,500 yuan/ton to 11,500-12,000
yuan/ton. April may see further decreases, with mainstream prices for regular linter likely at 8,500 yuan/ton.
After the Pulp Conference, trading prices for cotton pulp had hiked to 22,500 yuan/ton but soon fell to 21,000-
21,500 yuan/ton. In the dissolving-grade pulp market, offers were seen at $2,800-3,000/ton, but talks remained at
$2,600/ton as buyers refrained from purchasing. Meanwhile, products priced within $2,000-2,400/ton had successively
arrived at ports in China. Prices for cotton pulp and dissolving-grade wood pulp spots are expected to break through
20,000 yuan/ton next month.
- 36 -
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011[VSF]
Viscose Staple
Average Price (yuan/ton) Weekly Average for Spot 1.5D VSF (yuan/ton)
Month Change Mainstream Prev. Month Time Mainstream
VSF Price in Jan-Apr 2011 (Y/T) OR and Inventory for VSF in Nov 2010-Mar 2011 (%, days)
36500 100% 35
33500
90% Inventory Operating rate 30
30500 25
27500
80% 20
1 .5 D V S F 70% 15
24500
3 0 S sp u n ray o n ya rn 10
21500 60% 5
18500
50% 0
1 Ja n 1 6 J an 3 1 Ja n 15Feb 2M ar 17M ar 1Apr
13Nov 29Nov 16Dec 6Jan 15Jan 29Jan 25Feb 17Mar
Market Description
VSF market saw a quick downslide in March, with the second half in particular. Within the first two weeks, VSF
producers held offers at 28,500 yuan/ton despite a markedly thinner liquidity as compared with the past few months.
At mid-month, producers were advised by the Viscose Staple Industrial Conference to pull up offers by 100 yuan/ton to
stimulate market sentiment, only to find themselves caught in a completely different situation. As some producers
began to offload at low levels, market prices weakened, with mainstream talks trending towards 27,500 yuan/ton. Later,
trading prices at some producers with bearish expectations declined by a daily 500 yuan/ton, further dampening market
sentiment. Some producers pended settlements or turned to monthly settlements, but their efforts were in vain.
Converters still refrained from buying feedstock, especially as VSF prices changed every day in the last two weeks.
By the end of March, mainstream talks were at 26,000-26,500 yuan/ton, with a few producers offloading stocks at
24,500-25,500 yuan/ton. Although talks came that large-size deals were done while prices were seen at 25,000
yuan/ton, 24,000 yuan/ton or 23,000 yuan/ton, no confirmed deals were heard by month-end.
Downstream spun rayon yarn prices also corrected downwards. Under increasing inventory pressure, some cotton
spinning mills began to cut production or switch to polyester yarn production. Offers for spun rayon yarn 30S sank to
below 30,000 yuan/ton from 33,800 yuan/ton. Given constant falls in yarn prices, weaving & knitting mills hesitated in
placing feedstock orders, despite limited yarn stocks and passable order-intakes.
Industry News
At the Viscose Staple Industrial Conference held on 18 March in Chengdu, representatives decided to raise offers
by 100 yuan/ton. After the adjustment, offers for first-class and second-class 1.5D were beyond 29,000 yuan/ton and
28,600 yuan/ton respectively.
The Second Symposium of Tenbro Bamboo Fiber Application and Product Development was held on 20 March in
Shaoxing, and the participants consisted of the China National Textile & Apparel Council, the local government and 52
enterprise representatives. The symposium was of great significance to promoting the application of Tenbro bamboo
fiber in the shuttle weaving sector.
- 37 -
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011[VSF]
According to the data from China Customs, VSF imports into China in February 2011 totaled 3,464 tons at an
average price of $3,097/ton, up by $162/ton from January. The top three exporters in February were in order of
Indonesia, Austria and Thailand, with export volumes into China at 2,094 tons, 600 tons and 186 tons respectively, while
the average prices were at $2,933/ton, $3,320/ton and $3,100/ton separately.
Note: Above data is under the tariff number of 55041090
Others — — — — — —
Based on the data from China's Customs, China exported 6,494 tons of VSF in February 2011 at an average price of
$3,152/ton, up by $66/ton from January. The top three importers of China-origin VSF in February are in order of
Turkey, the United States and Chinese Taiwan, with respective import volumes at 4,237 tons, 949 tons and 299 tons,
while the average prices were at $3,150/ton, $3,036/ton and $3,325/ton separately.
CCFEI Comment
VSF prices have kept falling, putting much pressure on producers, but this month only saw some small-size
producers cut run rates. If the downtrend continues in April, production will be cut on a large scale. The downward
adjustment of textile export rebate rate will exert negative influence on viscose market, especially if talks are true
that the rebate rate of viscose derivatives would be cut by large margins.
In April, VSF prices are expected to stay within 23,000-24,000 yuan/ton, back to the lowest level before the
Spring Festival. If prices can bottom out at the end of April, H1 2011 may see another round of uptrend.
- 38 -
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [VFY]
This month, VFY values saw both increases and decreases. In early March, producers nominated a 1,000 yuan/ton
raise, quoting first-class, second-class and third-class 120D at 56,000 yuan/ton, 55,000 yuan/ton and 53,000-54,000
yuan/ton respectively. However, trading prices lagged behind as distributors were still holding some low-priced
products, while buyers played cautiously given the record high VFY prices. Export activities were relatively more
optimistic.
In mid-to-late March, VFY market weakened under the downward pressure from lower VSF prices. Although offers
were stable on reasonable inventories and passable export order-intakes, prices kept falling, constraining trading
activities and causing inventories to build at producers. By the end of the month, low-end prices for third-class 120D
Others — — — — — —
Total Vol./Ave.
588 4,679 214 4,384 803 4,600
Val.
According to China Customs, China imported 214 tons of VFY in February 2011 at an average price of $4,384/ton,
down by $295/ton from January 2011. The top three exporters to China in February are in order of China Mainland,
Chinese Taiwan and Italy, with export volumes of 182 tons, 20 tons and 6 tons respectively, while the average prices
- 39-
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [VFY]
Others — — — — — —
Total Vol./Ave.
6,900 6,416 5,018 7,079 1,047 6,967
Val.
Statistics from China Customs showed that China exported 5,018 tons of VFY in February 2011 at an average price
of $7,079/ton, up by $665/ton from last month. The top three importers from China in February were in order of
India, Pakistan and Turkey, with import volumes at 1,327 tons, 975 tons and 791 tons respectively and the average
6%
2%
CCFEI Comment
After the post-Spring Festival bloom fades away, VFY market is now lacking strength to go further upwards. In
April, VFY prices are expected to range bound in weakness, under the impact from VSF sentiment, and producers may
offer more discounts in order to offload.
- 40 -
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network ( CCFEI )
http://www.ccfei.net
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network ( CCFEI ) i s a company integrating the
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plastics.
Moved to Shanghai in 2002, CCFEI started to run on information, consulting and conference. CCFEI
is one of the most experienced companies in information collection from chemical fiber area, and its
info history could be traced back to 1989.
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