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Issue Number 102

March 2011

&
Catalogue of CCFEI China Report ( Monthly )

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Paraxylene Nylon Filament

PTA Propylene

MEG Acrylonitrile

Bottle Grade PET Acrylic Fiber

Fiber Grade PET ABS

Polyester Filament MDI/PTMEG

Polyester Staple Spandex

Recycled PSF Viscose Feedstock

Caprolactam Viscose Staple

Nylon Chips Viscose Filament

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China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [PX]

Paraxylene
Contract Price (Yuan/ton or $/ton) 14000
Month Change Price One month ago 13000 1650
12000 RMB USD 1500
Mar settled ↑450 13500 13050 11000 1350
RMB 10000
Apr listed ↑400 13500 13100 9000 1200
8000 1050
Mar settled ↑35 1655 1620 7000 900
USD Y/T $/T
Apr listed ↑50-80 1800-1810 1730-1750 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

JX Nippon Oil & Energy, ExxonMobil, Idemitsu Kosan and Korea S-oil settled March Asian PX contract prices at
$1,655/ton, up by $35/ton from February. Asian contract nominations for April came out as well, in the range of
$1,800-1,810/ton (CFR, L/C 90 days), up by $50-70/ton from March.
Sinopec issued its PX contract settlement for March at 13,500 yuan/ton, up by 450 yuan/ton from February.
Contract nominations for April were released at 13,500 yuan/ton, 400 yuan/ton higher over last month.
Spot Average Price ($/ton) 1800
Week Date USD 1700
Week 1 28Feb-4Mar 1668 1600
Week 2 7Mar-11Mar 1643 1500
Week 3 14Mar-18Mar 1778 1400
Week 4 21Mar -25Mar 1772 1300
Week 5 28Mar-1Apr 1706 1200
Monthly Ave. in Mar 1713 $/T 5Nov 10Dec 14Jan 25Feb 1Apr

PX spot market showed upward corrections in March.


In the first week, PX market showed a correction. Bids for one deal of April cargoes were at $1,665-1670/ton.
However, due to surges of downstream PTA prices, many sellers closed their offers. Due to the expectation of PX
oversupply in March and April, when 5 big PTA plants in China, Korea and India would be idled for turnaround, market
prices moved down slightly, with bids at $1,652/ton CFR on weekend.
In the second week, the market sustained downtrend, with several deals of April cargoes changing hands at
$1,650-1,655/ton CFR. Beside, there were two deals of April cargoes done at $1,625-1,630/ton CFR. CPC Corporation,
Taiwan bought 10,000 tons of PX cargoes delivered in H2 April by the tender, with one Japanese trader and one Korean
trader selling 5,000 tons respectively. It was heard that Urumqi Petrochemical exported its first parcel of PX by rail.
In the third week, given FM on some PX plants resulting from the earthquake in Japan, PX prices surged and set a
new record high. It was reported that four deals of cargoes were traded at $1,800/ton, and two were traded at
$1,810/ton, while another four were concluded at $1,815/ton. Offers for one April cargo were at $1,840/ton CFR.
Stepping into weekend, prices inched down slightly before surging up, with one April cargo traded at $1,780/ton CFR.
In the fourth week, the market showed a weak correction. Panic stemming from earthquake in Japan dissipated.
Southeast Asian cargoes were enough to dissipate the pressure from tight supply. Offers for 5000-ton cargoes for
April were heard at $1,770-1,775/ton CFR.
In the fifth week, prices remained in the downtrend. One May cargo was offered slightly lower to $1,680/ton CFR
from $1,705-1,710/ton CFR, but no buyer responded. Two deals of April cargoes were done at $1,690-1,700/ton CFR.

Monthly International PX Value Trend


Asia (CFR China, USD/ton) Europe (€/ton, FD) USA (cts/lb, DEL)
Feb Mar Apr est. Feb Mar Apr est. Feb Mar Apr est.
1620 1655 ↗ 1230 1270 ↗ 82.00 84.75-85.5 ↗

In European market: March PX contract price was settled at €1,270/ton, up by €40/ton from February; Middle
East materials were heard delivered into Europe market. One trader said 25,000 tons of cargoes from Oman, Indonesia
and India would arrive in Spain and Turkey in March and April. In US market, March contract price was settled at
84.75-85.50 cts/lb. Following the earthquake and tsunami in Japan, Asian PX prices surged, followed by US prices. Spot
prices jumped from $1,760-1,765/ton in early March to $1,800-1,805/ton FOB USG.

-1-
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [PX]

Statistics on PX Imports in China (kt, $/ton)


Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Jan-Feb 2011 Jan-Feb 2010
Origin
Imp. Vol. Ave. Val. Imp. Vol. Ave. Val. Imp. Vol. Ave. Val. Imp. Vol. Ave. Val.
South Korea 89.4 1304 59.6 1476 149.2 1373 119.8 1105
Taiwan 58.5 1413 53.9 1663 112.4 1533 25.1 1091
Japan 109.8 1375 82.5 1572 192.2 1461 145.8 1115
Indonesia 24.3 1263 29.5 1487 53.8 1386 55.3 1102
Thailand 30.4 1275 25.1 1606 55.4 1425 44.0 1113
Others 70.9 1349 84.9 1448 155.9 1403 153.9 1098
Total 383.3 1344 335.6 1533 718.8 1433 544.0 1105

Customs statistics showed that China’s PX import volume was 335.6kt in February, down by 47.7kt from January.
The average import price in February was at $1,533/ton, up by $189/ton on month.

Chinese enterprises mainly purchased term goods. Japan, South Korea and Chinese Taiwan are the major sources
for PX imports into China Mainland in February, with volumes at 82.5kt, 59.6kt and 53.9kt respectively, accounting for
24.58%, 17.76% and 16.06%, and the combined imports from the three accounts for 58.4% of the total. Import volume
from any other origin is all below 40kt.

The combined import volume in February 2011 amounts to 718.8kt, up 174.8kt year on year. The average import
price was at $1,433/ton, up by $328/ton or 29.68% year on year.

Operation Status of PX Producers

JX Nippon Oil & Energy declared force majeure (FM) on the supply of PX from 15 March to 30 April,
Global Plant
and reduced supply by half after they shut down units in Kawasaki and Kashima following the earthquake
Operation
and tsunami in Japan. The two plants have a combined nameplate capacity of 95kt/yr.

In China Jan Feb Mar Apr est.


Run rates 75% 78% 75% →

Output (kt) 481.2 500.4 481.2 →

According to CCFEI’s statistics, China’s PTA production in February is about 1,212.9kt, which reflects a demand of
788.4kt for PX. Based on operating rates of Chinese PX enterprises, February PX production should amount to 500.4kt.
The total PX export volume in February is 43kt, and total import volume hits 335.6kt. According to these data, the
supply in February is 793kt, a little more than demand. (It was heard that PX from new plants of Urumqi Petrochemical
started to be delivered gradually.)

CCFEI Comment

Feedstock: Crude values soared up to above $100/bbl, and is expected to hike and remain in uptrend given unstable
global situation. Additionally, with naphtha and MX prices also at high levels, PX can get some support from feedstock
costs.

PX supply: The recent earthquake in Japan led to FM of some units, so overall supply dropped significantly.

Downstream demand: Since many PTA units in Asia would be shut down next month, demand for PX will decrease.

To sum up, Issues in Japan could not be solved in the short term. Besides, players in Europe and US were very
buoyant. In Asian market, there were still European end users who inquired for April cargoes, and some India cargoes
were delivering into US gulf across Atlantic Ocean. Thus, due to overall tight supply, it is hard for PX prices to slump in
future.

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China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [PTA]

PTA
Contract Price (yuan/ton, $/ton) 13000
Change Range Prev. Month 12000
RMB
Settled for Mar ↓50-↑50 11900-12000 11950 11000
RMB 10000
Nominated for Apr ↑0-100 12000-12100 12000 9000
Implemented for Mar → - - 8000
USD Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Nominated for Apr → - - Y/T

RMB-based contract market: Several domestic major suppliers settled PTA contract prices for March basically
at 11,900-12,000 yuan/ton, with individuals a little higher than market expectation. Their contract nominations for April
came out at 12,000-12,100 yuan/ton, up by 0-100 yuan/ton from the nominations for March.

Weekly Average Spot Price (yuan/ton, $/ton) 12000 1600


Week Time RMB-based USD-based 1500
11000 RMB USD
Week 1 28Feb-4Mar 11696 1505 1400
10000 1300
Week 2 7Mar-11Mar 11556 1504
9000 1200
Week 3 14Mar -18Mar 11490 1512 1100
Week 4 21Mar-25Mar 11602 1528 8000 1000
Week 5 28Mar-1Apr 11380 1490 7000 900
Y/T 17Sep 5Nov 10Dec 14Jan 25Feb 1Apr $/T
Monthly Ave. in Mar 11545 1508

USD-based spot market: PTA prices saw a mild uptrend amid correction in March.
In early March, pushed by cotton futures, PTA futures showed an uptrend, so players had better mood, driving spot
price up as well. Offers for Taiwan cargoes rose to $1,530/ton from $1,490, while trading prices went up to $1,510-
1,520/ton. Afterwards, as buyers showed resistance to the high prices, spot market weakened. However, given a little
tight supply of cargoes, price downtrend slowed down, with offers for Taiwan cargoes down to $1,505-1,510/ton and
talks at $1,500/ton. In mid March, the earthquake in Japan influenced production of some local PX plants, so some
shipments were delayed. Thus, PX surged up, and set a new high. Backed by this situation, PTA prices also climbed up,
with sporadic offers for some Taiwan cargoes up to $1,550/ton. Since downstream polyester sector could not follow up,
however, mainstream talks for PTA only hit $1,530-1,535/ton. Till the last week of March, due to slumps of PTA
futures, PTA spot market showed a downtrend, with major talks down to $1,460/ton.

RMB-based spot market: The market took the similar trend to USD-based market.

In early March, the market showed an uptrend, with major talks up to 11,750-11,800 yuan/ton from 11,550-11,600
yuan/ton. Trades were limited, as some sellers held materials tight. The uptrend did not last long. Influenced by
dropping PTA futures and overall polyester sector, RMB-based market showed a weak trend, with major talks down to
11,400-11,450 yuan/ton. In light of limited spot PTA, both buyers and sellers held their positions. Downtrend of PTA
spot market was slower than that of PTA futures market because of tight supply, and spot PTA prices were higher than
PTA futures. Stepping into mid March, as some downstream users purchased PTA at a result of low prices, and also
driven by soaring PX prices, PTA prices climbed up slowly, with major talks up to about 11,600 yuan/ton. By the month
end, however, pulled down by PTA futures, major talks went down to 11,200-11,300 yuan/ton.

Monthly International PTA Value Trend


Asia ($/ton, CFR) Europe (€/ton, FD) USA (cts/lb, DEL)
Feb Mar Apr est. Feb Mar Apr est. Feb Mar Apr est.
- - → 1038-1048 - ↗ 68.58-68.68 - ↗

In Europe, restart of some BP plants slightly relieved tight supply, but downstream PET producers were also
intending to raise run rates.

In USA, PX prices firmed up on tight supply. As a result, it was expected that PTA contract prices would be close
to 70.5 cts/lb.

-3-
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [PTA]

Statistics on PTA Imports in China (kt, $/ton)


Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Jan-Feb 2011 Jan-Feb 2010
Origin Ave.
Imp. Vol. Ave. Val. Imp. Vol. Imp. Vol. Ave. Val. Imp. Vol. Ave. Val.
Val.
S. Korea 172.4 1225 113.1 1402 285.5 1295 315.4 945
Taiwan 224.7 1224 173.2 1368 398 1287 379.8 954
Japan 12.2 1235 9.6 1378 21.7 1298 44.4 940
Thailand 54.4 1184 33 1388 87.4 1261 91.3 940
Others 2.8 1143 4.1 1371 6.8 1279 8.2 870
Total 466.5 1219 333 1382 799.4 1287 839.2 947
QTA/EPTA 114.8 1202 60.7 1347 175.5 1255 170.5 916
According to Customs’ statistics, China’s import volume for terephthalic acid in February totaled 393.7 kt, down by
187.6 kt from January. The average price for imported terephthalic acid declared to the Customs was at $1,377/ton,
up by $161/ton from previous month. China’s import volume for PTA (tariff number: 29173611) in February totaled 333
kt, down by 133.5 kt from January. The average price for imported PTA was at $1,382/ton, up by $163/ton from
previous month. China’s import volume for QTA/EPTA (tariff number: 29173619) in February totaled 60.7 kt, down by
54.1 kt from January. The average price for imported QTA/EPTA was at $1,347/ton, up by $145/ton month on month.
By import volume into China, the first three countries and regions of the month are Chinese Taiwan, South Korea
and Thailand. The volume from Chinese Taiwan is 173.3 kt (with PTA 173.2 kt), occupying 44.02% of the total. The
volumes from South Korea and Thailand are 168.8 kt and 33.5 kt (with PTA 113.1 kt and 33 kt), amounting to 42.88%
and 8.51% of the total respectively.
Average cost of domestic stocks of PTA was around 11,444 yuan/ton in February (by exchange rate of 6.58), up by
1,467 yuan/ton from January.
Stock Status and Operation of Chinese PTA Producers in China
1. One 800kt/yr PTA plant at FCFC (Ningbo) was restarted on 5 Mar, which was shut down on 28 Feb.
2. One 600kt/yr EPTA plant at Yuandong Petrochemical was restarted in late Mar, which was shut down
on 2 Mar. Its No 2 PTA plant was also idled in late Mar.
Plant News 3. One 900kt/yr PTA plant at Pengwei Petrochemical was restarted on 19 Mar, which was shut down
unexpectedly on 16 Mar.
4. Yuandong Petrochemical, Ningbo Mitsubishi, Tianjin Petrochemical and Yisheng Petrochemical planned
to shut down PTA plants for turnaround in Apr-May.
Jan Feb Mar Apr est.
Operating
95% 95% 85% →
rate
Output (kt) 1,212.9 1,212.9 1,139.1 →
Stock Status Low Low Low →
According to estimation made by CCFEI, China's productions of polyester filament, staple and fiber-grade chips in
February amount to about 1,290 kt, 395.1 kt and 197 kt respectively. Production of polyester for non-fiber use is 251
kt. Thus, production of PET melt is estimated at 1,936.1 kt, with demand for PTA at 1,645.7 kt. Import volume of PTA
in February amounts to 393.7 kt, while export volume is 0.5 kt. Domestic PTA production in March is 1,212.9 kt based
on CCFEI’s statistics. Thus, PTA supply is at 1,606.1 kt, which is slightly lower than demand.
CCFEI Comment
Feedstock: Crude value hiked to above $100/bbl and is likely to trend up further given unstable global situation. As
for PX, supply was tight in general caused by the disaster in Japan, and it is probable for PX prices to stay high or go
up, which offers some support for PTA.
Supply: Many domestic PTA units will be idled in April, and some Korea-origin cargos were shipped to India, Europe
and US, so overall supply will reduce.
Demand: As sale/production ratios of downstream PET producers were not sound, many PET units were shut down
for turnaround. Meantime, power rationing is being implemented, which will influence the operation of textile sector and
in tern impact demand for polyester fiber.
To sum up, PTA market saw a stalemate recently when both upstream and downstream players held their
positions. But favorable factors seem in dominant position, so prices are likely to go up moderately in the short run.

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China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [MEG]

MEG
Contract Prices from Majors (yuan/ton, $/ton) 11000 1200
10000 1100
Month Up/down Range Pre. month
9000
1000
March Settled ↓300 9950 10250 8000
RMB 900
April Nominated ↓350 9950 10300 7000 RMB USD
6000 800
March Settled ↑ — —
USD Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
April Nominated → 1350-1400 1350-1400 Y/T $/T

USD-based market: Sabic, Shell and MEGlobal nominated their Asian contract prices for April at $1,350-1,400/ton
(CFR, L/C 90 days), flat to March.

RMB-based market: Sinopec settled its March contract price at 9,950 yuan/ton, down by 300 yuan/ton from
February, and announced its April contract price at 9,950 yuan/ton, down by 350 yuan/ton on month.

Average Spot Price (yuan/ton, $/ton)


10000 1300
RMB- USD- 9500
1200
Week Time 9000
based based 8500 1100
Week 1 28Feb-4Mar 9,610 1,217 8000
1000
7500
Week 2 7Mar-11Mar 9,744 1,246 7000 900
6500
Week 3 14Mar-18Mar 9,900 1,257 6000
RMB USD 800
Week 4 21Mar-25Mar 9,558 1,212 5500 700
Week 5 28Mar-1Apr 9,180 1,167 17Sep 5Nov 10Dec 14Jan 25Feb 1Apr
Y/T $/T
Monthly Ave. Ave. in Mar 9,599 1,220

USD-based market: Prices hiked first and then began to fluctuate down.
In early March, driven by the surge of PTA futures, MEG market was in uptrend, with offers up from $1,250/ton
to $1,270/ton and trading prices up from $1,245/ton to $1,260/ton. However, the rise came to an end quickly after too
fast hike due to high domestic inventory and sellers’ offloading under tank pressure but low buying interest. In mid
March, mainstream negotiations dropped to $1,200-1,205/ton, while driven by strong PTA market, mainstream
negotiations edged up to $1,215/ton. However, price hikes were hard, as buying interest was not strong. Entering the
last week of March, MEG prices move down, with mainstream negotiations down to $1,122/ton due to the dive of PTA
futures.

RMB-based market: RMB-based market mirrored the trend on the USD-based market.
In early March, MEG market was bullish, with offers up from 9,850 yuan/ton to 10,000 yuan/ton and mainstream
trading prices up to 9,950/ton. With high-position price approaching 10,000 yuan/ton mark, buyers’ follow-up
momentum weakened, and prices inched down due to inventory pressure. In mid March, mainstream trading prices
dropped to 9,600-9,650 yuan/ton. Driven by strong PTA futures, offers were tentatively hiked to 9,700 yuan/ton, but
the bullish market weakened gradually. In the last week of March, MEG market tended to fall, with mainstream
negotiations at 8,800-8,850 yuan/ton, and overall trades were hard to be concluded given low buying interest.

Monthly International MEG Value Trend


Asia ($/ton, CFR China) Europe (€/ton, FD) USA (cts/lb, DEL)
Feb Mar Apr est. Feb Mar Apr est. Feb Mar Apr est.
— — → 1,070 1,130 → 51.00-52.00 57.00-58.00 →

In Europe, initial contract price for March was settled at €1,130/ton FD NEW between Arteco and Ineos, up by
€60/ton from February. Spot market weakened after corrections.

In US, prices fluctuated. By the month end, cargoes were traded at 55-56 cts/lb FOB USG.

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China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [MEG]

Statistics on MEG Imports in China (kt, $/ton)


Jan. 2011 Feb. 2010 Jan.-Feb. 2011 Jan.-Feb. 2010
Origin
Imp. Vol. Imp. Val. Imp. Vol. Imp. Val. Imp. Vol. Imp. Val. Imp. Vol. Imp. Val.
Saudi Arabia 314.8 1055 187.8 1147 502.6 1097 423.1 899
Chinese Taiwan 124.0 1080 82.4 1184 206.4 1122 176.2 937
South Korea 29.1 1084 21.0 1209 50.4 1137 74.1 950
Canada 49.2 1057 15.9 1211 65.1 1097 90.6 931
USA 61.6 1031 30.2 1147 91.8 1075 69.7 930
Others 83.9 1107 55.9 1146 139.8 1124 169.5 913
Total/Ave. Val. 662.6 1066 393.2 1160 1055.9 1106 1003.2 917

According to statistics from China Customs, China’s MEG imports in February 2011 totalled 393.2kt, down by
269.4kt on month; and the average price declared to China Customs was at $1,160/ton, an increase of $94/ton from
January’s $1,066/ton.
In February, 373.2kt of MEG was imported from other Asian countries or regions, down by 240.2kt from January
and accounting for 95% of the total. Hereinto, the volume from Saudi Arabia ranked the first at 187.8kt, down by
127kt from January’s 314.8kt and accounting for 47.761% of the total; Taiwan and Singapore followed, with volumes of
82.4kt and 30.2kt respectively.
As for deep-sea cargoes, import volume from Canada in February decreased 33.33kt month on month to 15.9kt,
taking up 4% of the total. Import volume from U.S. was 4.1kt, taking up 1% of total. Import volume from other
countries was nearly zero in February.
In February, the average cost (based on the USD versus RMB exchange rate 1: 6.58) for stocked MEG was around
9,602 yuan/ton, up by 738 yuan/ton from the average cost declared to China Customs in January.

Stock Level and Operation Status of MEG Producers

Shell issued force majeure on its 750kt/yr MEG unit at Singapore due to ethylene production
Plant News
outage.

Domestic Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr est.


Operating Rate 90% 87% 85% ↗
Production (kt) 275.0 265.8 259.6 ↗
Stock Level Mid-high High High →

According to the assessment by CCFEI, the productions for PFY, PSF, fiber-grade PET chips and non-fiber grade
ones in February respectively totalled 1,290kt, 395.1kt, 197kt and 251kt. Based on these, total production of polyester
melt during the month reached 1,936.1kt, with demand for MEG at around 658.3kt. Import volume of MEG in February
was 393.2kt and export volume was 0.1kt. Besides, according to CCFEI’s statistics, domestic MEG production reached
265.8kt in February. Based on above data, MEG supply totalled 658.9kt in February, basically flat to demand (some
surplus supplies are to meet demand from antifreeze sector).

CCFEI Comment

Upstream: Crude values hiked to above $100/bbl and are likely to jump further on global unrest. Meanwhile,
ethylene prices saw high-level corrections recently, which offered moderate cost support for MEG market.
Supply: Stocks were high, as sellers held back sales, expecting post-holiday market to be bullish.
Demand: Many downstream PET units are idled due to low sale/production ratios. Meanwhile, operation was
restricted, as power blackout was carried out gradually. Thus overall demand for polyester fiber and intermediates was
affected.
To sum up, short-term MEG market is likely to make soft corrections due to inventory pressure.

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China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [BGPET]

BGPET Chip
Nominations from Majors (yuan/ton) 15000
Specifications 13000
Time Water BGPET Hot-filling Soft-drink 11000
(W) BGPET (H) BGPET (S) 9000
Jan 13500 13600 13700 7000
W H S
Feb 14600 14700 14800 5000
Y/T Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar.
Mar — — —
Spot Price Water Bottle Grade (yuan/ton)
15500
Time Price On week
14000
Week 1 28Mar -4Mar 14080 ↑ 12500
Week 2 7Mar-11Mar 14260 ↑ 11000
Week 3 14Mar -18Mar 14180 ↓ 9500
Week 4 21Mar -25Mar 14210 ↑ 8000
Week 5 28Mar-1Apr 14220 ↑ Y/T
29Oct 10Dec 14Jan 25Feb 1Apr
Monthly Ave. in Mar 14190 ↑

RMB-based market: BGPET chip market inched up amid fluctuations.


Early in Mar, BGPET chip market saw both prices and liquidity up on the support of cotton and crude oil surges.
Mainstream offers for water grade rose to 14,300-14,400 yuan/ton (ex-works or delivered within a short distance),
with low-end numbers slightly above 14,100 yuan/ton and high-end values at 14,500-14,600 yuan/ton. Traders continued
to take in moderate and small quantities and there were two large parcels (more than 10kt in total) changed hands early
in the month between an East China supplier and two major users at 14,100 and 14,250 yuan/ton respectively. Then the
market saw fluctuations as stock and futures markets headed down on expectation of deposit reserve ratio increase.

In Mid Mar, Asian PX surged for 3 successive days on outages of 950kt/yr PX capacities in Japan resulted from
earthquake, while negative influences on global stock market and softening US cotton sent China TA market into
instability, and BGPET market went stable-to-soft.

At month end, though PTA and MEG were settled high at 12,000 yuan/ton and 9,950 yuan/ton respectively,
mainstream talks of BGPET chips remained between 14,100-14,300 yuan/ton ex-works.

USD-based Market: USD-based market remained firm.


Early in the month, mainstream offers of USD-based BGPET chip market rose to $1,850/ton FOB CMP from
$1,830/ton, and to $1,880/ton FOB CMP in mid Mar as PX surged due to Japan’s earthquake, while talks rose to
$1,860/ton FOB CMP. At month end, mainstream offers were between $1,870-1,880/ton FOB CMP and talks were
between $1,850-1,870/ton FOB CMP though the market began to soften as demand weakened as a result of lack of
potable water in Japan.

Monthly International BGPET Value Trend


Europe (€/ton, FD) USA (cts/lb, DEL)
Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Apr 2011 est. Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Apr 2011 est.

1880-2215 2015-2315 ↗ 86.71-96.21 94.21-96.21 ↗

Driven by high cost, European and American markets saw further price increases in Market. In Europe, overall run
rates of PET units were cut to 60-80%, while those of plants in the US hovered at 90%. Prices are expected to continue
with the uptrend in Europe and the US next month on cost support.

-7-
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [BGPET]

Statistics on BGPET Exports in China (ton, $/ton)


Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Jan-Feb 2011 Jan-Feb 2010
Destination
Exp. Vol. Exp. Val. Exp. Vol. Ave. Val. Exp. Vol. Ave. Val. Exp. Vol. Ave. Val.
Russia 5775 1334 9576 1532 15351 1458 4662 1157
Ukraine 2100 1433 12408 1613 14508 1587 6174 1156
Japan 8454 1451 6722 1592 15176 1513 15081 1179
USA 2235 1550 4012 1603 6247 1584 6500 1196
Croatia 1680 1491 4158 1591 5838 1562 1071 1226
Others 18473 1464 21437 1586 39910 1537 35888 1198
Total 38717 1450 58313 1585 97030 1531 69376 1190

China imported 899 tons of BGPET chips in Feb, down by 56.6% from Jan. The average import price for Feb was at
$1,752/ton, up 11.6% from Jan. China's export volume in Feb was 58,313 tons, up by 50.6% from Jan. The average
export price for Feb was at $1,585/ton, up 9.3% from Jan. From above data we can see that China’s export volume for
BGPET is far larger than the import volume, with the net export volume of 57,414 tons, up 20,767 tons from Jan.

In Feb, among the destinations for China's exports, Ukraine ranked the first, with the volume taking up 21.3% of
total. Russia took the second place at 16.4%, and Japan the third at 11.5%.

Stock and Operation Status of Chinese BGPET Producers


One Jiangsu-based supplier restarted a long-idled 200kt/yr SSP plant after it had some specs
Plant News
sold out.

Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011 Apr 2011 est.


Operating rate 68.9% 60.0% 70.8% ↗
Output (kt) 288 251 296 ↗
Stock Level Slightly high High Normal ↘

Compared with last month, inventory level in March fell on decent demand from home and abroad, with low level
below 10 days and high level between 21-30 days.

CCFEI Comment

Supply: Next month some suppliers who are now running at low rates are likely to raise run rates with the market
heading for toward busy season and overseas market remaining sound.

Demand: Players are quite sensitive to market changes recently given firm overseas demand and busy season
drawing near. Therefore, once the market shows sign of strengthening, trading volume is expected to increase instantly
boosted by players’ buy-up sentiment.

Cost: With Central Bank of China raising interest rates higher and talks about the 5 percentage points cut of
textile export rebate rate, it is getting difficult for prices to remain at current high level. On the other hand, the
scheduled TA of more than 5,000kt PTA capacities will continue to lend support to the market.

To sum up, unfavorable economic environment combined with sluggish fiber demand will continue to curb PET prices.
In H1 and mid Apr, PET market sentiment is expected to soften but there will be limited space for BGPET to go down,
and it is possible that TAs of PTA units will help to improve the market.

-8-
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [FGPET]

FGPET Chip
Settlements from Majors (yuan/ton) 15000
Sinopec East China South China 13500
Month
SD Bright SD Bright SD Bright 12000 Sinopec
East China
Jan 12800 12650 12750 12750 12900 12850 10500 South China
Feb 13650 13550 13750 13750 13950 13950 9000
Y/T Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Mar 13850 13700 13950 13850 14200 14100
Nominations from Majors (yuan/ton)
15000
Sinopec East China South China
Month 13500
SD Bright SD Bright SD Bright
12000 Sinopec
Jan 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000 13,000 13,000 East China
10500 South China
Feb 12,500 12,500 12,500 12,500 12,500 12,500 9000
Y/T Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Mar 13,700 13,700 13,800 13,800 13,900 13,900
Spot Average Price (yuan/ton)
15500
Week Time SD On Week
14000
Week 1 28Mar -4Mar 13620 ↑
12500
Week 2 7Mar-11Mar 13645 ↑
11000
Week 3 14Mar -18Mar 13570 ↓
↓ 9500
Week 4 21Mar -25Mar 13500
Week 5 28Mar-1Apr 13490 ↓ 8000
Y/T 29Oct 10Dec 14Jan 25Feb 1Apr
Monthly Ave. in Mar 13565 ↑

Semi Dull PET Chips: SD PET chip market in Zhejiang and Jiangsu ranged bound.
Prices firmed early in the month supported by US cotton and crude oil surge, with mainstream talks at 13,900-
13,950 yuan/ton (D/A 90 days) and low end at 13,800-13,850 yuan/ton (D/A 90 days). Then the market saw fluctuations
as stock and futures headed down on expectation of deposit reserve ratio increase.

In Mid Mar, Asian PX surged for 3 successive days on outages of 950kt capacities in Japan resulting from
earthquake, while negative influences on global stock market and softening US cotton sent China’s PTA market into
instability, and FGPET market went stable-to-soft, which was also attributed to weak downstream demand resulting
from power rationing.

At month end, though PTA and MEG were settled high at 12,000 yuan/ton and 9,950 yuan/ton respectively,
mainstream talks of SD chips remained between 13,700-13,750 (D/A 90 days).

Super Bright PET Chips: SB chip market saw similar features as semi-dull chip market did. Early in the month
mainstream talks inched up to 13,500-13,800 yuan/ton (cash or D/A), then softened to 13,300-13,650 yuan/ton in mid
month. At month end talks were pegged between 13,300-13,600 yuan/ton (cash or D/A).

CDP Chips: CDP market experienced similar movements as the above two products did.

Trading prices for CDP chips softened to 14,700 yuan/ton D/A by the end of this month from 14,500 yuan/ton D/A
seen in early March.

-9-
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [FGPET]

Statistics on FGPET Imports in China (ton, $/ton)


Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Jan-Feb 2011 Jan-Feb 2010
Origin
Imp. Vol. Imp. Val. Imp. Vol. Imp. Val. Imp. Vol. Imp. Val. Imp. Vol. Imp. Val.
Iran 1200 1450 0 0 1200 1450 1000 1105
Taiwan 3831 1561 1716 1550 5547 1558 1101 1189
S Korea 1525 1949 1776 1898 3300 1921 4947 1373
USA 2998 1186 1470 1231 4468 1201 2422 1011
Japan 1630 2046 1230 1855 2861 1964 2213 2103
Others 1954 1970 2513 1602 4467 1673 14567 1460
Total 13138 1629 8705 1799 21843 1697 26250 1324

China’s total import volume of PET chips in Feb declined to 8,705 tons from Jan, down by 4,433 tons. Average
import price in Feb was at $1,799/ton, up by $170/ton on month. Export volume decreased from 9,445 tons to 5,707
tons, down by 3,738 tons or 39.6%. Net import volume in Feb was 3,000 tons. Average export price in Feb was at
$1,868/ton, increasing by $242/ton from Jan, $69/ton higher than the average import price in Feb.
Of all import sources in Feb, combined import volume from South Korea, Chinese Taiwan, Iran, Japan and USA
accounted for 71.1% of the total import volume, down by 14% from Jan.

Stock and Operation Status of Chinese FGPET Producers

1. Two direct-spinning POY units in Taicang restarted between 5-8 Mar with total capacity of 380kt/yr.

2. Early in the month one 200kt/yr direct-spinning POY unit restarted in Xiaoshan. The unit was taken off
Plant News for TA at end of Feb and mainly produces SD POY and FDY.

3. On 21 Mar, one 180kt/yr direct-spinning POY unit restarted in Xiaoshan. The unit was shut on 10 Mar.

Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. est.


Run Rate 41% 33% 36% ↘
Output (kt) 245 197 215 ↘
Stock A little bit low Normal Normal →
With chip settlement again below the break-even point and downstream buying from hand to mouth, chip producers
maintained low run rates though there were some units coming back from TA. By end of the month downstream
inventory was at normal level. Given lusterless sales of polyester fiber, during the month run rates of chip-fed spinning
mills in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were between 50-60%.

CCFEI Comment

As for feedstock, With Central Bank of China raising interest rates higher and talks about the 5 percentage points
cut of textile export rebate rate, it is getting difficult for prices to remain at current high level. On the other hand,
the scheduled TA of more than 5,000kt PTA capacities will continue to lend support to the market.

As for supply, planned PTA turnarounds in Apr and startup of new downstream capacities may cushion the influence
from PET TAs that have started or will start, while next month with new supplies emerging prices may see adjustment.

As for downstream demand, players are quite sensitive to market changes recently given firm overseas demand
and approaching busy season. Therefore, once the market shows sign of strengthening, trading volume is expected to
increase instantly boosted by players’ buy-up sentiment.

To sum up, unfavorable economic environment combined with sluggish fiber demand continued to curb PET prices. In
H1 and mid Apr, PET sentiment is expected to soften but there will be limited space for FGPET to go down, and it is
possible that TAs of PTA units will help to improve the market.

- 10 -
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [PFY]

Polyester Filament
Contract Prices from Majors (yuan/ton)
26000 POY150D settled POY150D listed
POY150D FDY50D DTY150D DTY150D listed FDY50D listed
Time
Settled Listed Listed Listed 22000
28Feb-4Mar 15,100 15,100 19,100-19,500 16,500 18000
7Mar-11Mar 15,100 15,200 19,200-19,600 16,500
14000
14Mar-18Mar 15,100 15,200 19,200-19,600 16,500
21Mar-25Mar 15,050 15,200 19,200-19,600 16,500 10000
27Sep 27Oct 26Nov 26Dec 25Jan 24Feb 26Mar
28Mar-1Apr — 15,200 19,200-19,600 16,500 Y/T

Average Spot Price (yuan/ton)


22500
Week Time POY150D DTY 150D FDY 68D POY150D DTY150D FDY68D
20000
Week 1 28Feb-4Mar 14,710 16,300 17,700
17500
Week 2 7Mar-11Mar 14,890 16,300 17,750
15000
Week 3 14Mar-18Mar 14,760 16,300 17,680
12500
Week 4 21Mar-25Mar 14,710 16,300 17,540 10000
Week 5 28Mar-1Apr 14,670 16,270 17,320 Y/T 30Sep 30Oct 29Nov 29Dec 28Jan 27Feb 29Mar
Monthly March 14,748 16,294 17,598

In March, PFY market was dominated by minor corrections. Early March saw sporadic increases; in mid-Mar,
sentiment gradually softened, and in late March, prices corrected in weakness.
In early March, PFY market saw sporadic increases. POY sale/production ratios rose moderately on rebounding PTA
futures, so producers raised prices accordingly but most played cautiously. From 4 Mar, central prices hiked by 100-200
yuan/ton, followed by a few more raises. On 9 Mar, PTA futures weakened, exerting downward pressure on PFY, with
weakness first seen in some POY offers. In early March, offers for POY 150D/48F hiked from 14,700 yuan/ton to
14,900 yuan/ton.
In mid March, PFY prices trended downwards. Market started in weakness on 11 Mar. After the magnitude-9
earthquake on that afternoon, some PX plants were shut down, which greatly pushed up PX spot values. In the next few
days, PX soared to around $1,815/ton, but such strengthening failed to reach the polyester sector, where PFY prices
went stable to weak. By the end of mid-March, as PTA futures surged upwards on strong crude values, POY trading
sentiment slightly improved, but high-end FDY prices corrected downwards. In mid-March, POY 150D/48F prices
declined to 14,900 yuan/ton from 14,750 yuan/ton.
Late March saw weak corrections in PFY market. The tentative increases in POY prices in mid-March were of no help in
improving market sentiment, so POY central values slipped downwards in the first few days of late March. On 25 Mar, some POY
prices picked up tentatively given much pressure on PFY producers due to high-level feedstock settlements, whereas FDY sector
remained in weakness, although FDY liquidity was markedly better than that of POY and DTY. Near the month end, PFY market
saw more discounts, resulting in lower yarn prices, especially those of FDY. In late March, POY 150D/48F dropped from 14,750
yuan/ton to 14,600-14,700 yuan/ton.
PFY stocks in March decreased slightly, with POY at 15-20 days, FDY at 22-25 days, and DTY at 20-25 days.
Operation Status of Downstream Textile Sector
Jan Feb Mar Apr est.
Operating Rate 20% 20% 65% ↘
Fabric Stock 18 days 10 days 15 days ↘
Well-sold Products Silk-like fabrics produced on shuttle looms and shuttle-less looms
Despite energy-saving and emission-reducing campaigns in March, run rates of weaving & knitting mills grew to 65% as
producers didn’t follow power rationing measures. The campaign will continue in April, concerning more places. It is thus expected
that downstream run rates in April will hover around the current level.
Daily fabric transaction volume in Textile City of China kept expanding, rising from 3 million meters to 5 million
meters within the month. Products selling well include chiffon, printed or dyed fabric, jacquard fabric, etc. Meanwhile,
the processing cycle of printing and dying was lengthened due to power rationing measures.
Monthly International PFY Value Trend
West Europe ($/ton, DEL) USA ($/ton, DEL) Taiwan ($/ton, DEL)
167dt POY 167dt DTY 150D/48-132F POY 150D/48-132F DTY 230D POY 150D DTY
2,420-2,559↑ 2,905-3,043↑ 2,998-3,064→ 4,012-4,079→ 2,117-2,220↑ 2,288-2,391↑
PFY market in North America saw continued brisk transactions. In West Europe, PFY sentiment gradually improved,
while that in Taiwan remained in a stalemate.

- 11 -
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [PFY]

Statistics on Exports of Chinese PFY (tons, $/ton)


Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Jan-Feb 2011 Jan-Feb 2010
Destination
Exp. Vol. Exp. Val. Exp. Vol. Exp. Val. Exp. Vol. Exp. Val. Exp. Vol. Exp. Val.
Turkey 12,096 2,043 9,407 2,113 21,503 2,074 7,725 1,781
India 1,242 2,486 910 2,260 2,152 2,390 1,701 1,693
S. Korea 7,336 2,415 7,297 2,373 14,633 2,394 11,484 1,856
Pakistan 13,784 2,043 9,707 2,071 23,491 2,055 13,755 1,560
Brazil 7,796 2,010 5,565 2,072 13,360 2,036 3,150 1,756
Others 62,501 2,116 41,704 2,222 104,205 2,158 65,983 1,755
Total 104,754 2,116 74,589 2,193 179,343 2,148 103,798 1,741

China exported 74.6kt of PFY in February 2011, down 30.2kt or 28.82% on month. The average export price was at
$2,193/ton, up $77/ton or 3.64% from January. China imported 10.2kt of PFY in February, down 4.6kt or 31.08% from
January. The average price of imported PFY was at $2,539/ton, down $135/ton or 5.05% on month.
Exports to Pakistan totaled 9.7kt in February, down 29.71% from January, ranking the first and accounting for
13.00% of the total in February. Exports to Turkey totaled 9.4kt in the month, ranking the second, down 22.31% on
month, and accounting for 12.60% of the total. South Korea, Brazil, Syria, Vietnam, Italy, etc. followed.

Stock and Operation Status of Chinese PFY Producers


1. A 100kt/yr polyester unit in Changshu started up on 28 Feb and mainly produces chips in the initial
stage after the startup. Spinning lines were scheduled to be added after April.
2. A 250 kt/yr direct-melt-spinning unit in Tongxiang shut down for T/A from 16 Feb to 10 Mar. The unit
mainly produces semi-dull POY.
3. A 200 kt/yr direct-melt-spinning unit in Xiaoshan was shut down for maintenance between late Feb
and early-to-mid March. The unit mainly makes semi-dull POY and FDY.
4. A 200 kt/yr unit in Taicang was shut from 18 Feb to 15 Mar for T/A, while another 180 kt/yr unit was
Plant News
shut down between 21 Feb and 8 Mar for maintenance. Both units mainly produce semi-dull POY.
5. A 180 kt/yr direct-melt-spinning unit in Xiaoshan was shut down for maintenance during 10-22 Mar.
The unit mainly produces semi-dull POY.
6. A 180 kt/yr direct-melt-spinning unit in Xiaoshan shut down on 17 Mar for technological innovation,
which was expected to last about one month. The unit mainly produces semi-dull POY.
7. Two direct-melt-spinning units with a combined capacity of 400 kt/yr in Xiaoshan were shut down on
18 Mar for a 20-day T/A. The units mainly produce semi-dull POY and FDY.
Jan Feb Mar Mar est.
Run rate 78% 75% 74% →
Output (kt) 1,350 1,290 1,270 →
Stock Level Medium to low Relatively high Relatively high ↘
In March, operating rates of PFY plants fell further to 74%, as some plants were shut down for maintenance and
some producers cut run rates. By now, no maintenance plans in April have been heard, but producers may still reduce
production to keep prices stable if PFY sentiment stays sluggish. Run rates are expected to roll over in April.
In March, overall sale/production ratios for PFY were at the same level as February. In April, more places will take
energy-saving and emission-reducing measures, which will suppress downstream demand to some extent. Nevertheless,
new orders are expected to arrive along with the Guangdong Trade Fair, so rigid demand for PFY is likely to increase.
CCFEI Comment
Feedstock: Crude oil prices are likely to fluctuate at a high level and PTA market will get support from strong PX
on coming PX T/A season. Meanwhile, some PTA units are set to be offline in Mar-Apr, which will continue to tighten
the market and pull up PTA prices. As for MEG, March nominations were high at around $1,350-1,400/ton. In general,
feedstock market has potential to rise.
Supply: PFY producers see inventories at high levels, which means ample supply of most products except for a few
items.
Demand: In early April, downstream demand will remain low amid weak PFY sentiment, but is likely to strengthen in
mid-to-late April when converters have almost run out of feedstock.

To sum up, PFY market will not improve in the short run, given relatively high prices at present. It makes some
sense for sellers to lower offers, thus paving way for future increase. When Guangdong Trade Fair opens, new orders
will increase, probably making it the right time to offload products.

- 12 -
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [PSF]

Polyester Staple
Contract Settlements and Nominations
17000
(yuan/ton)
Sinopec Private producers 15000
Month
(Delivered) (Ex-works) 13000
Jan settled 13700 13550 Sinopec(delivered)
11000
Private producers(ex-works)
Feb settled 15100 14900 9000
Mar settled 15000 14850 Y/T Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Apr listed 15100 -

Sinopec nominated its Apr contract price for 1.4D PSF at 15,100 yuan/ton (delivered). On 24 Mar, Sinopec
announced its settlement price for Mar at 15,000 yuan/ton.

PSF and Cotton Prices in China (yuan/ton)


33000
Week Time PSF 1.4D Cotton 328
29000
Week 1 1Mar-4Mar 14860 30603 25000
Week 2 7Mar-11Mar 14880 31161 PSF Cotton
21000
Week 3 14Mar-18Mar 14750 30822 17000
Week 4 21Mar-25Mar 14610 30558 13000
9000
Week 5 28Mar-31Mar 14380 30362 Y/T 8Oct 6Nov 5Dec 3Jan 1Feb 2Mar 31Mar
Monthly Ave. in Mar 14696 30701

PSF market showed an easing trend in March, with an accumulative decrease of 500-600 yuan/ton, amid strong
wait-and-see tone.
Early March: Since some major producers sold materials at low prices in early Mar, central PSF prices drifted
down visibly. Meanwhile, cotton and PTA rallied, and the market saw expanded trade volume transiently. After a round
of replenishment, with trading atmosphere softening, prices started to edge down. Mainstream talks for spot 1.4D PSF
in Jiangsu and Zhejiang decreased to 14,800-14,900 yuan/ton.
Mid March: Declining cotton prices had a certain impact on players’ confidence, so central trading prices of PSF
trended down steadily. Afterwards, the earthquake in Japan caused PX prices to surge up, but prices for polyester
products went stable amid long-short stalemate though activities remained stagnant. In Jiangsu and Zhejiang,
mainstream talks for 1.4D PSF were at 14,650-14,750 yuan/ton (ex-works), with an accumulative decrease of 150-200
yuan/ton.
Late March: PSF market moved downward further. Wait-and-see stance was stronger, as downstream users’ buying
interest was low. Traders offloaded stocks at lower prices one after another, so central prices moved down, and even
high settlements for feedstock failed to improve liquidity. Mainstream talks for 1.4D PSF inched down to 14,400-14,500
yuan/ton (ex-works), with an accumulative decrease of about 250 yuan/ton.

Monthly International PSF Value Trend


Chinese Taiwan (DEL, $/ton) Europe(DEL, $/ton) USA(DEL,$/ton)
Feb Mar Apr est. Feb Mar Apr est. Feb Mar Apr est.
2176 2305 → 2473 2628 → 2535 2574 →

North America: Though PSF prices were at all-time high levels, demand didn’t shrink but strengthen month by
month. Garment, non-woven and filling material sectors ran sound, pushing up sales and production of local PSF
producers.

West Europe: Liquidity of local PSF producers was smooth by virtue of good demand. PSF demand from wiper-
oriented nonwoven sector was higher than expected, and demand from construction & geotextiles industry also
improved, while demand from automobile sector was steady.

- 13 -
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [PSF]

Statistics on Exports of Chinese PSF (kt, $/ton)


Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Jan-Feb 2011 Jan-Feb 2010
Destination
Exp. Vol. Exp. Val. Exp. Vol. Exp. Val. Exp. Vol. Exp. Val. Exp. Vol. Exp. Val.
Pakistan 17.2 1626 7.8 1733 25 1659 11.5 1165
US 12.6 1272 5.9 1331 18.5 1291 19.1 1012
Syrian Arab 6.3 1653 4.1 1771 10.5 1700 0.8 1211
Vietnam 4.3 1672 3.8 1732 8.1 1701 2.9 1198
Indonesia 7.6 1613 3.4 1718 10.5 1646 1.2 1110
Others 43.2 1547 21 1609 64.7 1568 33.3 1206
Total/Ave. Val. 91.1 1543 46.1 1627 137.2 1571 68.9 1143

According to the statistics from China Customs, China’s import volume for PSF in February 2011 is 6.5kt, down
5.3kt from the previous month, and the average import price is at $1,862/ton, up $27/ton from January. China
exported 46.1kt of PSF in February 2011, down 45kt from previous month, with the average export price at
$1,627/ton, up $84/ton on month.
South Korea, Chinese Taiwan and Malaysia rank the top three regions that exported PSF into China Mainland in
February, and the top three export destinations of Chinese PSF are Pakistan, the United States and Syria.

Stock Level and Operation Status of Chinese PSF Producers


1. One 150kt/yr polyester unit (producing cotton-type PSF, 3-D-crimped hollow PSF and low-melt-point
PSF) in Sichuan, which was shut down in Jan, was restarted on 1 Mar.
2. One PSF line of Luoyang Shihua Chemical Fiber, which was shut down in early 2011, was restarted on
5 Mar, with daily production of around 150 tons.
3. One 100kt/yr melt-direct-spinning PSF unit in Jiangyin, which was shut down in early Feb, was
restarted on about 15 Mar, with daily production of around 300 tons.
Plant News
4. One Jiangsu producer said they delayed the startup of the newly added melt-direct-spinning PSF
after-processing line to mid Apr, which will have a daily production of around 200 tons.
5. Yizheng Chemical Fiber restarted four melt-direct-spinning PSF lines, which were shut down in late
Feb, involving daily production of 230 tons.
6. One producer in Suzhou closed three melt-direct-spinning PSF lines due to equipment issues, with
restarting date pending
Month Jan Feb Mar Apr est.
Operating rate 87.9% 86.5% 90.1% ↘
Output (kt) 401.6 395.1 411.1 ↘
Stock Level Low Medium Medium ↘

After a round of procurement in early Mar, PSF market fell into a stalemate. With units restarted in succession,
run rates in PSF industry picked up. However, due to low sale/production ratio, inventory at the whole PSF industry was
piling up, with average level at about 3 weeks by the end of Mar. (Note: New formula for calculating operating rate has
been used since Jan 2011.)

CCFEI Comment

Feedstock: Global crude oil prices firmly stayed at above $100/bbl, and a spate of PTA units would be shut down in
Apr, so tight supply could not be solved in the short term. Thus, it is unlikely for PTA prices to slump in future.
Demand: Unsmooth sales for yarn led to high yarn inventory. Coupled with high capital pressure, many sellers
slashed prices to offload materials. Despite of low feedstock inventory, spun yarn producers purchased feedstock by
small parcels for PSF prices had been dropping.
Supply: With run rates up, producers had some inventory and faced sales pressure due to the length in PSF
market.
To sum up, bearish sentiment of downstream sectors dragged PSF prices down. It is the slow liquidity that is the
biggest obstacle for PSF market to turn better. Since downstream users have basically used up the feedstock
purchased previously, if PSF prices bottom out, a round of purchasing peak may occur.

- 14 -
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [Re-PSF]

Re-PSF
Hollow Re-PSF Value Trend (yuan/ton)
16500
Variety (6-15D siliconized) Trend Value 14000
3-D-Crimped Hollow in JZ

3-D-crimped in Jiangsu & Zhejiang ↑2 12022 11500


9000
3-D-crimped in Guangdong (pre-duty) ↓233 10600
Y/T 14Oct 25Nov 6Jan 17Feb 31Ma r
2-D-crimped whitened in Cixi ↓10 11017
March saw soft re-PSF sentiment. Especially after the earthquake in Japan, prices significantly declined. In early
Mar, mainstream ex-works offers for siliconized 3-D-crimped hollow re-PSF in Jiangsu and Zhejiang ranged bound at
12,000-12,500 yuan/ton (duty included). After the earthquake, pessimism dominated the market. At first, virgin PSF
started to decline. In order to relieve pressure from inventory, some re-PSF producers began to slash prices to
offload materials. With more discounts emerging, a few major producers dumped stocks at lower prices, disturbing the
order of price decreasing. Mainstream ex-works offers for siliconized 3-D-crimped hollow re-PSF in Jiangsu and
Zhejiang decreased to 11,500-11,800 yuan/ton (duty included) at the end of Mar, and low-price materials were here
and there. In export market, prices for 3-D-crimped hollow re-PSF in Jiangsu and Zhejiang did not slide down visibly,
with mainstream ex-works offers for siliconized ones firming at $1,600-1,650/ton FOB. But in Guangdong and Fujian,
hollow re-PSF market softened notably, with mainstream ex-works offers for siliconized ones down to 10,000-11,400
yuan/ton from 11,200-11,600 yuan/ton (duty excluded) of last month.
2-D-crimped hollow re-PSF market in Cixi followed the trend in 3-D-crimped hollow re-PSF market. Mainstream offers for
white siliconized items dropped to 10,700-10,900 yuan/ton (duty included) from last month's 11,300-11,500 yuan/ton (duty
included). With sale/production ratios at 50-70%, many producers had increasing pressure from inventory.
Cotton-type Re-PSF Value Trend (yuan/ton)
17000
Variety (in Jiangsu and Zhejiang) Trend Value
15320
High-tenacity low-elongation virgin-like 1.5D ↓397 12670 High-tenacity Virgin-like in JZ
13640
High-pressure spun virgin-like 1.5D ↓473 11913
11960
High quality raw white 1.5D ↓77 11196 10280
High quality raw white 1.5D (SW China) ↓108 11525 8600
Low quality raw white 1.5D ↓216 10550 14Oct 25Nov 6Jan 17Feb 31Mar
Y/T
Re-POY150D/96F ↑94 13000
Dragged by dropping virgin PSF and some low-price re-PSF, cotton-type re-PSF prices showed a sustained
downtrend. Mainstream ex-works offers for high-tenacity low-elongation virgin-like re-PSF dropped to 12,100-12,300
yuan/ton (duty included, hereafter the same) from February’s 13,200-13,500 yuan/ton. Offers for high-pressure spun
virgin-like re-PSF moved down to 11,000-11,500 yuan/ton from 12,500-12,800 yuan/ton of the previous month; those for
1.5D raw white high-quality re-PSF declined from 11,600-11,800 yuan/ton of February to 10,800-11,000 yuan/ton; and
those for 1.5D raw white high-quality re-PSF in Southwest China drifted down from 12,000-12,200 yuan/ton of
February to 11,000-11,200 yuan/ton (tax included).
Re-PFY market saw a range-bound in Mar. Mainstream ex-works offers for re-POY 150D edged down to 12,500-
13,000 yuan/ton from 12,500-13,500 yuan/ton of the previous month.
Flakes Price Trend
White, for 3-D-crimped White, for virgin-like White, for re-PFY Green, for spinning
Average in Mar 8887↓ 8538↓ 9725↓ 8078↓
Forecast for Apr → → → →
Flake prices trended down in most of Mar, and warmed up in late Mar. Stepping into Mar, flake supply improved
with weather becoming warm. Coupled with sliding re-PSF prices, re-PSF producers weighed down flake prices.
However, from late Mar, since some major producers raised low end offers, and raised bids for feedstock, flake prices
rebounded slightly.
Offers for white flakes ready for spinning 3-D-crimped hollow re-PSF in Jiangsu and Zhejiang decreased from
9,000-9,500 yuan/ton (duty excluded, hereinafter the same) of February to 8,500-8,800 yuan/ton. Offers for white
flakes used to spin high-quality regular re-PSF dropped to 8,300-8,400 yuan/ton from last month’s 8,700-8,800
yuan/ton. Offers for green flakes dwindled to 8,000-8,100 yuan/ton from 8,200-8,400 yuan/ton. In Guangdong and
Fujian, white flakes used to spin 3-D hollow re-PSF were quoted lower at 8,500-8,700yuan/ton from 9,200-9,500
yuan/ton. In Southwest China, offers for white flakes ready for spinning decreased to 7,700-7,900 yuan/ton from
February’s 8,700-8,800 yuan/ton. Imported white flakes ready for spinning tailed off to $1,150-1,200/ton CFR from
$1,300-1,400/ton CFR.

- 15 -
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [Re-PSF]

Statistics on Imported PET Scraps and Wastes into China (kt, $/ton)
Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Jan-Feb 2011 Jan-Feb 2010
Origin
Imp. Vol. Ave. Val. Imp. Vol. Ave. Val. Imp. Vol. Ave. Val. Imp. Vol. Ave. Val.
Japan 21.5 805 19.6 860 41.1 831 41.9 618
USA 15 765 8.8 795 23.8 776 24.5 598
Germany 8.4 769 4.7 807 13.1 782 16.3 536
Thailand 9.0 1082 6.8 1011 15.8 1052 15 643
Taiwan 3.1 833 1.9 860 5.1 843 16.9 557
Others 69.4 827 49.5 875 119 847 100.9 586
Total 126.5 831 91.3 870 217.8 847 215.7 591
According to China Customs, China's import volume of PET scraps and wastes in February is 91.3 kt, a decrease of
35.2 kt from January, while the average import price is at $870/ton, up by $39/ton on month.
The statistics show that import volume reduced somewhat in February, and average import price moved higher.
Japan ranks the first in all the countries and regions that exported flakes into China Mainland, followed by the USA,
Indonesia, Thailand, Germany, Mexico, Hongkong, South Korea, Spain and Peru. As for import price, the highest
numbers are for materials from Myanmar, followed by those from Sudan, Israel, Nigeria, the Philippines, Venezuela,
Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia and Tanzania. PET scraps and wastes are mainly imported in February by ‘general trade’
and ‘trade of processing with imported materials’.
Operation Status of Chinese Re-PSF Producers
1. One 150kt/yr polyester unit (producing cotton-type PSF, 3-D-crimped hollow PSF and low-
melt-point PSF) in Sichuan, which was shut down in Jan, was restarted on 1 Mar.
2. Cixi Santai restarted its recycled PFY unit in early Mar, involving a capacity of 130 tons/day.
Plant Operation
3. Yangzhou Ruiyue closed its unit on 8 Mar, and restarted it in mid Mar, involving a capacity of
400 tons/day.
4. Some producers in Cixi had been influenced by power rationing in Mar, and some producers in
Jiangyin also had received notice of power rationing.
Domestic
Jan Feb Mar Apr est.
producer
Operating rate 60% 35% 65% ↗

Re-PSF prices were weak in Mar. Sale/production ratios slid down, so inventory pressure on producers increased.
Cotton-type re-PSF producers saw inventory at less than 5 days and ran at around 50-70% capacities. Hollow re-PSF
producers saw inventory at about 20-30 days and operating rates at around 70-80%, while re-PFY producers held
inventory of about 10 days, with run rates at 70-90%.

CCFEI Comment
In March, re-PSF market softened continuously, and liquidity was stagnant in general given increasingly emerging
low prices.
From the view of cost, due to the slump of re-PSF prices in March, bottle flake prices met certain pressures.
Though prices for imported bottle flakes were firm before mid March, the numbers dropped later given more supplies
of homemade materials in Mar. And though the prices rebounded by the month end, it will be not sustainable with the
warming weather. Coupled with lower prices for imported materials and power rationing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the
market performance is not optimistic on the whole in the future.
As for supply/demand fundamental, inventory pressure on re-PSF producers increased amid lower re-PSF prices
and weak downstream sentiment. Though the talk of lower export rebates of textile products will benefit re-PSF
prices in the short run, downstream textile market will meet more obstacles in the long term, which thus casts a cloud
over the market outlook.
Generally speaking, as virgin PET market was sound amid higher Mar settlements at end Mar, which bolstered
cotton-type re-PSF market to stabilize, and also because of the coming busy-season for spun yarns in April, as well as
the power rationing, market mentality improved slightly. Moreover, in April, as many as 5,200 kt/yr PTA capacities will
be turned around, which will support virgin PET market a lot. As a result, re-PSF market will no be so bad despite not so
good in the future. Re-PSF producers should pay attention to related markets and macro economic situations, and
meantime control inventory cautiosly.

- 16 -
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [CPL]

Caprolactam
Contract Price (yuan/ton, $/ton) 4000
29000
Month Change Range Prev. Month 3500
25000 3000
RMB- Mar Settled ↑1100 29100-29200 28000-28100 2500
based 21000
Apr Listed ↑400 29200 28800 2000
RMB USD
USD- Mar Settled ↑305 3500-3520 3200-3210 17000 1500
based May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar
Apr Listed ↑90 3630-3650 3550 Y/T $/T

Asian caprolactam contract price for March was settled at $3,500-3,520/ton (CFR China, L/C 90 days), rising by
$305/ton from February. Nominations for April were raised, with the numbers for high-end CPL at $3,630-3,650/ton.
Sinopec announced settlement price for March contracts at 29,100-29,200 yuan/ton (D/A, solid, AA grade), an
increase of 1,100 yuan/ton from February settlement. DSM Nanjing issued settlement price for March at 29,200
yuan/ton, and list price for April from Sinopec was pegged at 29,200 yuan/ton.

Average Spot Price (yuan/ton, $/ton)


USD- 3900
Week Time RMB-based 3700
based
3500 USD
Week 1 28Feb-4Mar 28640 3554
3300
Week 2 7Mar-11Mar 28680 3558 3100
Week 3 14Mar-18Mar 28480 3546 2900
Week 4 21Mar-25Mar 28720 3578 2700
Week 5 28Mar-1Apr 28900 3592 2500
28Nov 18Dec 7Jan 27Jan 16Feb 8Mar 28Mar
Monthly Ave. in Mar 28683 3564 $/T

RMB-based spot market: CPL spot prices made corrections in March.


Week 1: Market prices for spots edged up, with mainstream numbers at 28,800-29,000 yuan/ton. Early in the
week, inquiring was active, and the market stabilized later.
Week 2: Market prices for spots moved lower, with mainstream numbers at 28,600-28,800 yuan/ton. Liquidity
was weak due to few inquiring activities.
Week 3: CPL spot prices inched down. With few inquiring activities, liquidity was modest. Mainstream trading
prices were seen at 28,400-28,600 yuan/ton.
Week 4: CPL spot prices edged up, with mainstream offers at 28,800-29,000 yuan/ton and trading prices at
28,600-28,800 yuan/ton.
Week 5: Spot prices weakened, with mainstream offers at 29,000 yuan/ton and a little above the level and
trading prices at 28,700-28,800 yuan/ton. Liquidity was modest.
USD-based spot market: CPL prices went firm on the back of tight supply caused by turnarounds of units.
Week 1: Offers were few and converters made moderate replenishments. Early in the week, bonded goods were
traded at $2,580/ton. After that, buying interest slowed down, so liquidity was modest.
Week 2: Offers were pegged at above $3,580/ton. By the weekend, selling ideas were pegged at $3,560/ton. In
midweek, bonded goods were traded at $3,580/ton. By the weekend, buying interest slowed down, so trading was
muted.
Week 3: Selling ideas were at $3,560/ton, with a few deals done at $3,530-3,540/ton. In midweek, sellers hiked
offers to $3,580/ton.
Week 4: Offers were hiked to $3,600-3,620/ton. Buyers were cautious in buy-rise and mainstream prices were
pegged at $3,580-3,600/ton.
Week 5: Offers were pegged at $3,600-3,630/ton and mainstream prices were at around $3,600/ton. By the
weekend, prices moved down slightly.

Monthly International CPL Value Trend


Asia ($/ton, CFR) Europe (€/ton, DEL)
Feb Mar Apr est. Feb Mar Apr est.
3200-3210 3500-3520 → 2185-2245 2285-2395 ↗
In Asia, March contract prices for caprolactam moved higher, settled at $3,500-3,520/ton CFR Korea/Taiwan,
and $3,500-3,520/ton CFR China MP. As for April contracts, nominations rose to $3,630-3,650/ton. In Europe,
contract prices for March were at Eur2,285-2,395/ton given higher benezen prices and tight supply. In addition, it is
expected that April contract prices in Europe is likely to be stable in line with tight supply and stable demand.

- 17 -
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [CPL]

Statistics on Caprolactam Imports in China (ton, $/ton)


Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Jan-Feb 2011 Jan-Feb 2010
Origin
Imp. Vol. Ave. Val. Imp. Vol. Ave. Val. Imp. Vol. Ave. Val. Imp. Vol. Ave. Val.
Belarus 6736 2870 3115 2927 9851 2888 7276 2221
Poland 2000 2772 3000 2960 5000 2885 10700 2194
Russia 12100 2834 7300 2932 19400 2871 27388 2215
US 6314 2747 5984 2840 12298 2792 12158 2115
Mexico 5687 2811 3149 2998 8836 2877 8272 2197
Japan 10910 2823 8135 2962 19045 2883 13130 2296
Others 10141 2812 10035 2925 20176 2869 33076 2272
Total 53887 2817 40719 2930 94606 2866 111999 2205
In Feburary 2011, China imported 40.7kt of caprolactam, increasing by 24.5% from January. During Jan-Feb, China
totally imported 94.6kt, decreasing by 15.5% from the same period of last year. The largest import volume in February
was from Japan, amounting to 8,135 tons. Volume from Russia was the second large, at 7,300 tons, followed by that
from U.S. at 5,984 tons.

Average import price in February is at $2,930/ton, up 4.01% from January. The highest number for February is
$3,103/ton for ex-S.Korea cargoes, followed by $2,998/ton for ex-Mexico materials. The number from U.S. was at
$2,840/ton, the lowest.

Inventory Volume and Operation of Caprolactam Producers


1. Japan’s Sumitomo closed its 85kt/yr CPL line at Niihama, Ehime prefecture in late March due
to feedstock benzene in short supply and the company planned to restart it in April. However, the
95kt/yr line in the same region will keep running.
Plant Operation 2. Taiwan's CPDC finished a turnaround on its caprolactam plant at Hsiaokang in mid-to-late
March, with capacity expanding from 180kt/yr to 200kt/yr. The company’s 100kt/yr CPL unit at
Toufen was closed due to power outage and had not been restarted. The company planned to take a
three-week turnaround on the unit from the last week of April.

Domestic producers Jan Feb Mar est.


Operating rate 91.3% 90.5% 94.0%
Production (kt) 42.5 44.5 46.2

China imported 40.7 kt of caprolactam in Feburary, and together with domestic production of around 44.5 kt,
China’s apparent consumption in February is 85.2 kt, down 10.8% from January.
In March, run rates of CPL units at home and abroad increased a little, and producers’ inventories were still low.
Operating rates of downstream nylon chip units were stable at around 70%. Conventional-spinning chip unit ran at low
rate, so overall demand was modest. Operating rates of nylon textile yarn producers were sound at around 80%; cord
fabric plants were running at around 60% capacity. Generally speaking, downstream demand was modest.

CCFEI Comment

Supply: Overall, supply tightness will ease in April. Taiwan’s CPDC resumed normal production on its CPL unit at
Hsiaokang and Japan’s Sumitomo will restart 85kt/yr CPL unit in April, though Ube Industries will take a planned
turnaround during March-April. So, tightness will ease slightly on the whole.
Demand: In March, converters’ operating rates were stable on month. Presently, high-speed spinning chip
producers were running at 75-80% capacity, while conventional-spinning chip makers were operating at 60-70%, with
unsound rates at fishnet-yarn and staple-fiber producers. Downstream nylon textile filament plants were operating at
around 80% capacity, with the rates of cord fabric plants at 65-70%. Overall run rates decreased from last month.
Looking forward, demand will not be optimistic.
Cost: Crude oil and benzene values remained strong in March. NYMEX crude values broke through $100/bbl mark
during March, and hovered at above $100/bbl; Asian benzene values dropped to $1,150/ton FOB Korea mark; and
European benzene fell to $1,240/ton. Looking forward, crude and benzene prices are likely to range bound strongly.
To sum up, feedstock values are firm, tight supply for CPL eases, and downstream demand is not strong. Looking
forward, CPL market will make a range-bound in the short run. In the medium term, the market is very likely to make
corrections.

- 18 -
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [PA CHIP]

Nylon Chip
Average Price (yuan/ton, $/ton) 33000
31000 Conventional H-speed
Month Up/down Range Prev. Month
29000
Conventional March → 30000 30000 27000
25000
March ↑100 32100 32000 23000
High-speed Y/T Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
USD ↑20 3920 3900

In Mar, with tight availability, CPL market prices surged to $3,600/ton. Thus nylon chip producers tended to raise
the prices further given rising cost pressure. However, weakening downstream demand frustrated the uptrend of the
market in Mar. Given such impact, most nylon chip producers encountered stagnation with expectation of larger negative
territory.
As for the market, offers for Taiwan-origin high-speed spinning nylon chips were at $3,980-4,050/ton by end Mar.
Tight feedstock availability drove nylon chip producers to hold on to high offers, but downstream buyers only bid
cautiously, with low end indications at $3,800/ton. As for homemade nylon chips, with much higher CPL prices, chip
producers mostly raised their offers, but the space was limited given softening demand, hereinto, negotiations for high-
speed spinning SD nylon chips were at 31,300-33,000 yuan/ton (D/A 90 days, delivered) by end Mar, with those in
Zhejiang at the high end and in Jiangsu and Shandong at the low end. Demand from nylon textile yarn sector retreated,
suppressing the uptrend. Major nylon chip producers were running at 70-80% of full capacity, with low inventories. And
in conventional spinning nylon chip market, cash-based prices were generally at 29,500-30,500 yuan/ton by end Mar, and
producers kept offers high due to larger loss coverage, while demand from fish-net yarn and staple fiber producers was
lackluster with run rates at majors only at 60%, suppressing the uptrend.

Weekly Spot Average Price (yuan/ton)


Week Time Price 31000
Weekly Spot Average Price
Week 1 1Mar-6Mar 31200 29000

Week 2 7Mar-13Mar 31300 27000

Week 3 14Mar-20Mar 31300 25000

Week 4 21Mar-30Mar 31300 23000


5Oct 3Nov 2Dec 31Dec 29Jan 27Feb 28Mar
Monthly Ave. in Mar 31275 Y/T
CPL market prices rose from $3,550/ton to $3,600/ton, with a markup of $50/ton during the month, which
imposed more pressure on downstream nylon chip market. Nylon chip producers operated cautiously and raised their
prices to relieve heavy cost pressure, but the pull-up moves met huge obstacles on weakening market demand.
As for conventional spinning nylon chips, prices for homemade bright chips gradually stabilized from previous
uptrend, and cash-based prices were steady at 29,500-30,500 yuan/ton, with high-end numbers for Jiangsu-origin
goods at 30,000-30,500 yuan/ton and low-end numbers from small-sized producers and traders at 29,500-29,800
yuan/ton. Most nylon chip producers and traders still aimed to raise offers given higher costs, but the markup was
limited amid cautious downstream buyers. As for high-speed spinning SD chips for textile yarn production, prices for
homemade SD chips hiked slightly to 31,300-33,000 yuan/ton (D/A 90 days, delivered), hereinto, cash-based prices for
Jiangsu-origin goods moved up by less than 200 yuan/ton to 30,500-30,800 yuan/ton, while those for Zhejiang- and
South-China-origin high-quality goods were generally flat at 33,000 yuan/ton (D/A 90 days, delivered), mainly due to
weak nylon textile yarn sector. As for the run rates, major nylon chip producers operated at around 70-80% capacity,
while producers who produce bright chips or chips for cord fabric production performed poorly, with some majors only
at 60% capacity.
Monthly International Nylon Chip Value Trend
Taiwan ($/ton)
Jan Feb Mar Apr 2011 est.
3530 3980 4000 →

In Mar, higher CPL prices supported Taiwan-based nylon chip producers and traders to quote higher at $3,950-
4,050/ton. And it is expected that nylon chip prices will stay high, as CPL prices are unlikely to drop in a certain period.
Nevertheless, demand from downstream nylon textile yarn sector started to retreat, so negative impact will turn up on
nylon chip market if nylon fiber prices fail to follow up.

- 19 -
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [PA CHIP]

Statistics on Nylon Chip Imports into China (kt, $/ton)


Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Jan-Feb 2011 Jan-Feb 2010
Origin
Imp. Vol. Ave. Val. Imp. Vol. Ave. Val. Imp. Vol. Ave. Val. Imp. Vol. Ave. Val.
Taiwan 24.33 3059 15.36 3159 39.7 3097 47.99 2470
Russia 3.65 2837 4.3 3037 7.95 2923 4.47 2226
Belgium 2.28 2789 1.78 2906 4.06 2840 5.06 2302
Germany 2.12 2658 2.54 2862 4.72 2770 5.47 2710
S. Korea 5.45 3108 4.05 3212 9.51 3152 7.66 2563
USA 3.3 2899 2.8 3131 6.1 3005 7.98 2294
Total 46.84 3027 36.59 3130 83.53 3072 47.57 2309
In February, China mainland imported 36,596 tons of nylon 6 chips, down by 10,243 tons or 21.9% on month. Average
price for imported nylon 6 chips in February was at $3,130/ton, up by $103/ton on month. Among them, materials from
Taiwan totaled 15,357 tons, down by 8,976 tons or 36.9% on month, accounting for 41.9% of the total import volume, a
slightly lower percent compared with that of last month. The average price for Taiwan-origin cargoes was at $3,159/ton,
$100/ton higher from January’s $3,059/ton. South Korea, Germany, the USA and Japan are also major exporters to China
mainland. Import volume from Russia and Germany increased, while that from the USA, Belgium and South Korea
decreased.
Operation of Nylon Chip Producers in China
In Mar, run rates at major nylon chip and nylon cord fabric producers were generally at 60-80%.
With higher operating pressure on rising feedstock costs, producers generally ran cautiously.
The startup of Zhejiang Mesbon Chemical’s 70kt/yr new semi-dull nylon chip unit was delayed to
after mid April.
Plant News Wuxi Mingte Chemical Fiber’s 50kt/yr nylon chip unit was initially planned to be restarted by the
end of Mar, but currently, it is still in outage.
Sinopec Shijiazhuang Refining and Chemical's 25 kt/yr polymerization unit was planned for a 15-
day turnaround in early April.
Shandong Shifeng’s 15 kt/yr industrial grade nylon chip unit will remain in outage till May.
Dec Jan Feb Mar
Output (kt) 99 99 90 ↑
According to the statistics of CCFEI, China's nylon chip production in Feb is 90kt. Import volume decreases by 10.2kt,
while export volume decreases by 0.2kt. Apparent consumption decreases by around 17kt. China’s nylon chip production in
March is estimated to increase slightly, mainly due to moderate inventory.
CCFEI Comment
As for costs, CPL prices are unlikely to drop in 2011 given its tight availability, which will support nylon chip market
to keep stable with upward momentum. As for the future, though high CPL prices lacked supports from downstream
demand in Mar, they are also unlikely to drop sharply in the future backed by rigid demand on low inventory at
downstream nylon chip producers. However, with high cost pressure, major nylon chip producers have to operate
cautiously in April and raise the prices actively.
As for supply, though CPL prices hiked, chip prices only increased slightly given weak downstream demand, so nylon
chip producers only operated at low rates given meager profit margins, with more shutdown plans and the delayed
startups of new units. As for the future, demand from nylon textile yarn sector would not be favorable given power
rationing, which would surely result in low operating initiatives of nylon chip producers. So, it is expected that major
chip producers will mostly run at 60-80% capacity or turn around the units to avoid losses.
As for demand, both liquidity and prices of nylon fiber failed to increase further on a weaker nylon textile yarn
sector. Nylon textile yarn producers only operated moderately given rising inventory and meager profit margins, and if
market demand cannot improve much and the prices fail to hike notably in April, their demand for nylon chip will be
hampered further. On the other hand, cord fabric, staple fiber and fish-net yarn markets are still subdued, and
demand from them will be limited given their low run rates on the slow follow-ups of the prices for their products.
To summarize, high CPL prices continued to press nylon chip producers much, so chip producers will have to raise
chip prices in the future, especially for bright one on their larger loss coverage. High feedstock costs and unfavorable
market outlook will also discourage the operating initiatives of nylon chip producers, which on the other hand will help
to push up chip prices. In a nutshell, nylon chip prices are likely to increase given rising CPL prices, but the upside
potential will not be large in the future given the overall lackluster demand.

- 20 -
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [NFY]

Nylon Filament
Average Price (yuan/ton) 38500
36000
Month Change Price Prev. Month 33500 FDY7 0D/24F
31000
FDY70D/24F March ↑400 36700 36300 28500 DT Y70D/24 F
26000
DTY70D/24F March ↑500 38000 37500 Y/T Oc t Nov D ec Jan Feb Mar

As for costs, the higher prices for CPL and nylon chips imposed more cost pressure on nylon fiber producers, and
thus prices for main specs of nylon textile yarn continued to increase, but the markup decreased a lot compared with
last month, mainly due to weaker demand from textile sector. Non-textile yarn prices, however, performed better,
mainly due to the too low values previously. As for inventory, most nylon fiber producers operated on a hand-to-mouth
basis, so the inventory was low, with 15-day inventory on average. As for the future, nylon chip market will still show a
stable-to-firm trend, so cost pressure on nylon fiber producers will not ease, and thus nylon fiber prices may be pushed
up.

As for the market fundamental, downstream converters only showed lusterless purchasing appetites given much
higher feedstock costs, as well as power brownout measures.

Weekly Spot Price 39000


Week Time FDY70/DTY70
36000
Week 1 1Mar-6Mar 36700/37600
Week 2 7Mar-13Mar 36700/38000 33000

Week 3 14Mar-20Mar 36700/38000 30000 FDY70D DT Y70D


Week 4 21Mar-30Mar 36700/38000 27000
Monthly Ave. in Mar 36700/37900 Y/T 7Oct 5Nov 4Dec 2Jan 31Jan 1Mar 30Mar

FDY: Liquidity slowed down due to weaker demand from downstream weaving and warp-knitting mills, and with
ample order-intakes and low inventory, the prices moved up early this month but later, they rolled over or even dropped
slightly, suppressed by lackluster demand. On the other hand, producers still ran at as high as 80-90% capacities. In
Shengze and Jiaxing markets, SD FDY 70D/24F was traded at 36,500-37,000 yuan/ton (D/A, 90-180 days) by the
month end, up by 500 yuan/ton given high feedstock costs. FD specs also performed well, with mainstream FD FDY
70D/24F traded at 37,500 yuan/ton. As for fine-denier specs, SD FDY 40D/12F was traded at 39,000-40,000
yuan/ton, while FD FDY 40D/34F was offered at 40,000-41,000 yuan/ton. Prices mostly stabilized.
DTY: In Mar, despite weaker demand from knitgoods sector, producers still raised the prices on rising feedstock
prices, though the markup decreased notably. This month, prices for high-end DTY70D/24F were at 39,000-39,500
yuan/ton (D/A, 90-180 days), and those for medium-end products moved up by 500 yuan/ton to 37,500-39,000
yuan/ton (cash for the low end and D/A 180 days for the high end). Low-quality DTY 70D/24F was priced higher by 500
at above 35,500 yuan/ton. Fine-denier 30D/10F was generally priced at 42,500-44,500 yuan/ton. Downstream, overall
run rate of nylon-fed circular knitting and covering machines were at 50-60%, but buying interest retreated slightly.
In cord fabric sector, mainstream prices rose to 36,500-37,000 yuan/ton. Prices surged by 1,000 yuan/ton on
higher feedstock values, but liquidity was still slow. Run rates of large-sized cord fabric producers were only at 60-70%
with moderate inventory. Mainstream prices for monofilament 30D moved up by 1,000 yuan/ton to 36,500-37,000
yuan/ton, due to stable demand from textile sector and passable profit margins. For nylon staple fiber, mainstream
prices for 1.5D climbed up by 500 yuan/ton to 32,000-32,500 yuan/ton due to low inventory, despite lusterless demand.

International Monthly Prices for Nylon Filament


Taiwan FDY70D/24F ($/ton)
Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Mar 2011

4190-4230 4440-4470 4750-4820

Taiwan Market: Downstream demand was sound; Due to higher feedstock costs, the prices surged further, with run
rates at above 90%.
European Market: In Mar, liquidity in knitgoods and seamless garment markets was slow, and demand from weaving
mills and warp-knitting mills were mostly subdued. However, demand from weft-knitting mills was stable.

- 21 -
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [NFY]

China Nylon Filament Import Statistics (Unit: ton, $/ton)


Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Jan-Feb 2011 Jan-Feb 2010
Origin
Imp. Vol. Ave. Val. Imp. Vol. Ave. Val. Imp. Vol. Ave. Val. Imp. Vol. Ave. Val.
Taiwan 6515 3397 4617 3516 11132 3446 12321 2728
S. Korea 1459 3798 883 4075 2342 3902 1905 3414
Malaysia 583 3730 278 3741 860 3738 1127 2616
Thailand 217 3882 211 3636 429 3752 183 3172
Total 9967 3607 6891 3752 16858 3666 17412 2953
According to Customs Statistics, China mainland imported 6,891 tons of nylon 6 filament yarns in February, down by
3,076 tons on month, with an average price at $3,752/ton, up by $145/ton from January. Of them, 4,617 tons were from
Chinese Taiwan, down by 1,898 tons on month and accounting for 67% of total import volume, with average import price at
$3,516/ton, up $119/ton from that of January; besides, 883 tons was from South Korea, 278 tons from Malaysia, and 211
tons from Thailand.
Nylon Filament Industrial News
Zhuji Xinqin’s POY project with 48 spinning positions was put into production at 50% capacity in Mar,
and Zhejiang Deke, who currently produces DTY, would gradually start up its POY capacity with 72 spinning
positions in Apr. Yiwu Huading Nylon plans to add 40kt/yr nylon fiber capacity, which is expected to be
Plant News completed by the end of 2011. Fujian Kaibang is to construct a new 30kt/yr nylon project in 2011, making
its overall capacity to 70 kt/yr. Changle Liheng plans to add 60kt/yr nylon filament capacity in 2011.
Wujiang Yatai plans to start up a 144-position spinning line in May. Zhejiang Xinfu Holdings plans to expand
its nylon filament capacity by 10kt/yr to 20kt/yr in 2011.
Domestic Dec Jan Feb Mar est.
Output (Kt) 125 117 103 ↑

According to CCFEI’s statistics, China’s nylon filament production in February is around 103kt, with operating rate
at around 65-70% on average. Import volume and export volume decreased by about 3.1kt and 2.9kt respectively in
February, so apparent consumption decreased by around 13.8kt month-on-month. Production in March is expected to
increase on the back of the startups of new units, while inventory will be moderate.

CCFEI Comment
In March, prices for nylon textile yarns moved up to relieve the cost pressure in line with rising feedstock prices,
and inventory was still moderate despite the mild increase, while those for non-textile products such as cord fabric,
staple fiber and fishing-net yarn also hiked to ease cost pressure, and the markup was larger than that of textile yarns
due to bigger loss coverage. Looking forward, the factors affecting nylon yarn price trend are as follows:
Cost: With tight supply for CPL and nylon chips, feedstock costs for nylon filament yarn continued to move up, despite
weaker demand from downstream textile products and cord fabric sectors. As for the future, as record highs for the month-
end feedstock values have imposed more pressure on nylon fiber producers, it is expected that downstream yarn makers will
have to raise the prices for their products further with better demand from their buyers.
Supply: Though demand from downstream sectors weakened, large-sized nylon fiber producers still ran at 80-90%
capacities, citing their low inventories of about 15 days. Coupled with some new capacities, supply increased slightly.
However, some producers may not be active in production given current high feedstock costs and their meager profit
margins, and non-textile yarn makers will also operate cautiously given the lusterless liquidity. So, run rates are hard to
improve further.
Demand: With power rationing in some regions, downstream nylon textiles makers showed less interest in
purchasing and mainly digested previous stocks, while industrial items makers also purchased from hand to mouth. As
for the future, high feedstock costs will impose heavier operating pressure on downstream converters, so the sentiment
is unlikely to improve much, but the demand will not be so bad supported by rigid demand and buy-rise intention of
downstream buyers.
To sum up, nylon fiber producers had to raise their prices in March in line with higher feedstock costs, and the uptrend will
continue in the future, as feedstock prices are not likely to drop sharply. As for fundamental, run rates at nylon fiber producers
will increase slightly given their low inventories and the startups of new units. However, downstream buyers will react cautiously
given so high prices for nylon fibers and their low profit margins, which will prevent demand from improving further. On the
whole, nylon fiber prices will pick up on the back of high feedstock prices, while producers’ sale/production ratios will continue to
be weak, which will curb the uptrend of nylon fiber market in April.

- 22 -
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [C3]

Propylene
Price Trends of Propylene vs Crude Oil

$/T $/bbl
1600 110
1550 105
1500 100
1450 95
1400 90
1350 85
1300 80
1250 75
1200 70
1150 C3(FOB Korea) WTI Crude 65
1100 60
26Nov

3Dec

10Dec

17Dec

24Dec

31Dec

7Jan

14Jan

21Jan

28Jan

4Feb

11Feb

18Feb

25Feb

4Mar

11Mar

18Mar

25Mar

1Apr
Propylene Market Trend in March

Asia:
Week 1: With tight supply and robust demand for FOB cargoes, FOB Korea benchmark surged by $40/ton to
$1,501/ton, hitting a record high since 13 August 2008. Week 2: FOB Korea benchmark opened high and rocketed to
$1,510/ton due to tight spot supply. In South Korea, there were no spots to export, as the region entered into
turnaround season. Week 3: After Japan’s earthquake, supply concerns emerged, which led to strong demand for FOB-
based cargoes. So, FOB Korea propylene values ascended by $49/ton to $1,550/ton. Week 4: Backed by tight supply,
FOB Korea propylene prices rose by $21/ton to $1,571/ton. Traders were looking for FOB Korea-based cargoes to
offset tightness caused by Japan’s earthquake. However, there were no offers in Korea, as steam crackers in the
region entered into turnaround season. Week 5: FOB Korea propylene closed the week at $1,571/ton, flat to the week
before. Tightness can be seen in Korea due to turnaround season in the region.
Propylene values closed March at $1,570-1,572/ton FOB Korea.
Europe:
In March, PGP spot market made corrections and fluctuated significantly due to unstable global situation though
spot supply was still tight. In early March, with firm energy prices, tight supply and strong downstream demand, PGP
contract price for March was settled at Euro 1,185/ton, up Euro 80/ton from February. Affected by political unrest in
Libya, PGP supply was restricted. In mid March, PGP spot prices moved down, affected by turmoil in Middle East,
Japan’s natural disaster and unstable energy market. In late March, PGP spot prices rebounded on the back of
increasing costs caused by political unrest in Middle East and Libya and Japan’s earthquake.
PGP spot values closed March at Euro 1,230-1,235/ton CIF NWE.
USA:
H1 March: The markdown of propylene contract price for March was less than market players’ expectation due to
tight supply, firming chemical grade and refining grade propylene. PP producers had robust demand for PGP. H2 March:
Propylene prices continued rising in line with robust demand from PP and acrylonitrile sectors and higher feedstock
values. The propylene prices moved up steadily and most market players thought the prices would maintain ongoing
uptrend in the short run.
PGP spot values closed March at 81.500-82.000 cts/lb FOB USG.

International Propylene Monthly Price Trend


Asia (FOB Korea, $/ton) Europe (CIF NWE, €/ton) US (FOB, cts/lb)
Feb Mar Apr est. Feb Mar Apr est. Feb Mar Apr est.
1371 1527 ↑ 1115 1218.5 ↑ 72.7 75.35 ↑

-23 -
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net February 2011 [ACN]

Acrylonitrile
USD-based Weekly Spot Prices CFR FE ($/ton) Spot ACN Price Trend
Week Time Price 2700
2500
Week 1 31Jan-4Feb 2435 2300
2100
Week 2 7Feb-11Feb 2448 1900
Week 3 14Feb-18Feb 2545 1700
1500 Europe FE USA
Week 4 21Feb-25Feb 2540 1300
Monthly Ave. in Feb 2492 Y/T 20Aug 10Sep 30Sep 22Oct 12Nov 3Dec 24Dec 14Jan 4Feb 25Feb

RMB-based Weekly Spot Prices (yuan/ton) $


ACN Monthly Price Trend $/T
Week Time Price 25000 3000
22500
Week 1 31Jan-4Feb 19700 2600
20000
Week 2 7Feb-11Feb 19967 17500 RMB 2200
15000
Week 3 14Feb-18Feb 20280 12500 USD 1800
Week 4 21Feb-25Feb 20580 10000 1400
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Monthly Ave. in Feb 20132 Y/T $/T

Global ACN Market Trend in February

In Asia, Week 1, Asian spot values increased $30/ton to $2,435/ton CFR NEA and $2,440/ton CFR SEA
respectively. Despite a sluggish liquidity ahead of Spring Festival, Asian prices stayed high. Week 2, during the Lunar
New Year holidays, the market was quiet but spot prices kept climbing on tight supply to $2,447.50/ton CFR FE, up by
17.50/ton. Week 3, soaring of major feedstock propylene tightened ACN supply, with Asian prices climbing to above
$2,500/ton CFR FE, up by 4% to $2,545/ton. Week 4, as Japan’s Asahi Kasei offered two 1000-ton March-delivery
China-bound cargoes at $2,450/ton, Asian ACN prices decreased $5/ton to $2,540/ton CFR FE.

In Europe, Week 1, bolstered by spot tightness and rising feedstock values, ACN spot prices surged by $20 to
$2,395-2,400/ton CIF Med. Week 2, NWE ACN spot prices rose by $35/ton, firstly breaching the mark of $2,400/ton
and then climbing to $2,430-2,435/ton CIF Med, driven by tight spots. Week 3, on the back of a bullish Asian market
and the short spot supply, prices increased $15 to $2,445-2,450/ton CIF Med. Week 4, given a firm fundamental, spot
prices moved up by $30/ton and assessments were pegged at $2,475-2,480/ton CIF Med.

In USA, Week 1, although participants in Asia mostly left the market for holidays, US ACN market still faced a
supply tightness and spot prices increased $32 to $2,380/ton FOB USG. Week 2, the short supply and robust demand
pushed prices up by $45 to $2,420-2,430/ton FOB USG, close to all-time high. Meanwhile, demand from major
downstream sectors still maintained a healthy state. Week 3, spot prices kept moving higher and closed at $2,460-
2,470/ton FOB USG. Week 4, with some spots traded at a higher level of $2,600/ton, spot prices breached earlier
record and surged by $85/ton to $2,545-2,555/ton FOB USG.

Price Range for ACN in China in February (yuan/ton, $/ton)


Lianyungang (ex-tank) East China (ex-works) NE China (ex-works) USD-based (CFR China)
Early Mid Late Early Mid Late Early Mid Late Early Mid Late
19700- 20000- 20500- 19400- 19600- 20200- 19000- 19300- 19700- 2500- 2580- 2620-
19800 20500 20800 19600 20200 20200 19400 19800 20000 2550 2620 2680
Monthly International ACN Value Trend
Asia (CFR, $/ton) Europe (CIF, $/ton) USA (FOB, $/ton)
Jan Feb Mar est. Jan Feb Mar est. Jan Feb Mar est.
2350 2492 ↑ 2309 2439 ↑ 2276 2455 ↑

- 24 -
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [ACN]

Statistics on ACN Imports in China (ton, $/ton)


Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011
Origin
Imp. Vol. Imp. Val. Imp. Vol. Imp. Val. Imp. Vol. Imp. Val.
Japan 11033 2060 11001 2197 18734 2190
S. Korea 10464 2087 21445 2133 3915 2272
Taiwan 3134 2231 3116 2200 4870 2218
USA 18101 2044 17840 2109 16362 2248
Mexico -- -- 1915 2191 -- --
Russia -- -- 2852 2120 -- --
Brazil -- -- -- -- 2773 2036
Total/Ave. Vol. 42732 2072 60174 2146 48153 2214
Average import price for ACN into China in Feb 2011 is at $2,214/ton, up by $68/ton from $2,146/ton of Jan.
Average import price in Jan-Feb is $2,179. Import volume in Feb 2011 is around 48.15kt, down by 12.0kt or 19.98% from
60.17kt in Jan.
Capacity and Operation Status of Chinese ACN Producers during March
Producer Capt. (kt/yr) Operation Remarks
From end Feb, No.1, No.2, and No.3 units running at 90%.
CNPC Jilin Chemical 432 Around 70%
Units to take turnaround in turns in July.
Shanghai Petrochemical 130 Normal
Shanghai Secco 260 Normal Take 5-day maintenance for one line and restart on Mar 7.
Fushun Petrochemical 92 80% Cut rates on around 20 Jan 2011.
Anqing Petrochemical 80 Normal Shut for a turnaround on Feb 28 and restart on Mar 10.
Daqing Petrochemical 80 Normal Took a turnaround from 8 July 2010 for a month
Daqing R & C 80 Normal Captive use
Lanzhou Petrochemical 35 Normal Captive use in rubber production
Qilu Petrochemical 40 Normal To expand capacity to 80kt/yr, on stream in June 2011
In March, domestic ACN producers ran units at around 86.2% capacity, with a monthly production of nearly
88.27kt.
CCFEI Comment

Feedstock: In March, global crude market was amid fluctuations. Especially in mid-March, crude values firstly
plunged to $97/bbl due to the strong earthquake in Japan, and then rallied to over $101/bbl and hovered at around
$103-105/bbl. NYMEX crude prices closed at $106.72/bbl by month end. Asian propylene prices surged up through
March. After the earthquake, demand for FOB cargoes increased in line with greater worries about supply, and FOB
Korea prices thus rose to $1,566/ton from $1,471/ton early this month. March propylene market in China firmed up and
mainstream trading prices in Shandong climbed to 11,850-12,000 yuan/ton.
Supply: Operating rates of domestic ACN units changed little in March and major northeastern producers offered
a stable spot supply. In Feb, China imported 48.15kt of ACN, down by 12.0kt from Jan. In Mar, as cargoes supply
remained short and spots were still limited, sellers maintained price-hiking anticipation, but downstream players
operated with caution. April-delivery cargoes remained firm still and offers for deep-sea cargoes stood high, while
buyers purchased materials prudently and it is predicted import volume won’t be large. However, given a stable domestic
supply, the total supply will be still at a standstill.
Demand: Chinese acrylic fiber producers generally kept run rate stable. ABS majors are operating their plants
steadily, with most at high rates while several at low rates. Major acrylamide plants are running at 50-60% capacity and
had a lukewarm demand for ACN. In general, March demand weakened somewhat amid stability and participants tended
to sideline with a lackluster buying appetites. April demand is expected to mainly range bound.
To summarize, in Mar, domestic ACN market ranged bound at high levels and following-up momentum weakened, but
sellers still held offers firm boosted by limited imports and high USD-based prices. In Apr, a ranging-bound stance is
expected to continue, and some traders may further hike prices given still high costs for certain cargoes.

- 25 -
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [AF]

Acrylic Fiber
1.5D Staple Prices (yuan/ton)
Y/T Weekly Average Price
Week Time Prices
Week 1 28Feb-4Mar 25020 27000

Week 2 7Mar-11Mar 25440 25000

Week 3 14Mar-18Mar 25600 23000


Staple 1.5D
Week 4 21Mar-25Mar 25600 21000
Top 3D
Week 5 28Mar-1Apr 25620 19000
15Oct 26Nov 7Jan 18Feb 1Apr
Monthly Ave. in Feb 25456
3D Top Prices (yuan/ton)
Week Time Prices Y/T Monthly Average Price
27000
Week 1 28Feb-4Mar 26100
Week 2 7Mar-11Mar 26440 25000

Week 3 14Mar-18Mar 26600 23000 Staple 1.5D


Top 3D
Week 4 21Mar-25Mar 26640 21000
Week 5 28Mar-1Apr 26800 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Monthly Ave. in Feb 26516
Acrylic Fiber Market Sentiment in March
Week 1: Domestic AF market saw majors mostly raise offers on the back of rising feedstock values, and spot
discussions also moved up. In East China, cotton-type spots were traded at 24,700-25,500 yuan/ton. USD-based AF market
ranged bound at high levels as ACN values remained high. Given a heavier cost pressure, producers hiked offers, but firm deals
were scarce as buyers were prudent. Reference offers for regular 3D tow were mostly at around $3,450-3,470/ton.
Week 2: Sentiment in domestic market remained strong. Some producers pulled up offers on strong cost support.
But trade volume was still stable, with trading prices for cotton-type spots at 25,500-26,000 yuan/ton in East China. In
USD-based market, spot negotiating atmosphere was thin, but AF offers increased further due to tight supply of
feedstock ACN spots. However, as the negative home-abroad spread was unlikely to disappear in the short term, most
buyers were cautiously sidelined. Negotiations for regular 3D tow were around $3,450/ton.
Week 3: Domestic prices ranged bound at high levels on stable sales/output ratios at producers. Downstream yarn
values picked up, yet trading prices were still lagging behind, so converters became more cautious against high-end
acrylic fiber prices. Trading prices for cotton-type spots were at 25,500-26,000 yuan/ton in East China. USD-based
spot talks were poor, but offers remained firm due to high ACN values. The negative home-abroad spread remained.
However, offers may rise further in the future and differentiated products will maintain strength on tight supply. Talks
for regular 3D tow were at above $3,450/ton.
Week 4: Despite strong cost support, domestic acrylic fiber spot talks ranged bound at high levels, as converters played
cautiously due to weak yarn sentiment. However, some products remained firm on tight supply. Towards the month end, some
major producers released settlements, mostly flat and some slightly higher. Trading prices for cotton-type spots were at
25,500-26,000 yuan/ton in East China. USD-based market sentiment remained stable at high levels. On rising ACN prices,
acrylic fiber producers may push April offers higher. Negotiations for regular 3D tow were at above $3,450/ton.
Week 5: Domestic AF prices ranged bound at high levels. Buyers became more cautious and slowed down in purchasing
activities. Producers largely announced rollover settlements and nominations, with small increases for certain products on tight
supply. Trading prices for cotton-type spots were at 25,500-26,000 yuan/ton in East China. USD-based market saw a thin
trading sentiment, and producers mostly hiked offers. Offers for regular 3D tow hiked to about $3,550/ton.
Reference Offers for April (yuan/ton)
High-shrinkage
Producer 1.5D Staple 3D Staple 3D Tow 3D Top
3D (22%)
25600 (northern, 25450(northern, 26150 (northern, 25800 (northern,
Shanghai
Jinyang) Jinyang) Jinyang) Jinyang) —
Petrochem
Sinopec 25450 (southern) 25450(southern) 26150 (southern) 25650 (southern)
Anqing PC 25300 25300 25850 25600 26450
Qilu PC 25400 25400 25950 25800 26650
Jilin Qifeng 26000 25500 26000 26000 27000
Jilin CF
JiMont 26000 25500 26000 26000 27000
Petro China Daqing PC 25900 25700 25900 25900 26700

- 26 -
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [AF]

Acrylic Fiber Imports by Origin (ton)

Origin Dec 2010 Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Total in 2011

Japan 6328 4382 4398 8780

Taiwan 5603 3394 1434 4828

South Korea 2202 2952 1411 4362

Thailand 1963 1355 362 1717

Turkey 3950 2187 1352 3539

Belarus 50 1442 -- 1442

Others 3345 3398 3786 7183

Total 23441 19109 12742 31852

Based on the statistics from the Customs General Administration, China totally imported 12,742 tons of acrylic
fiber in February, down by 6,367 tons or 33.32%from January’s 19,109 tons, and down by 4.78% from 13,381 tons year
on year.

By import origin in February, the top three countries and regions are Japan, Chinese Taiwan and South Korea, with
their respective shares at 34.52%, 11.26% and 11.07%, which are followed by Turkey and Germany, with their shares at
10.61% and 9.44% respectively.

By import mode, ‘general trade’ covered 5,460 tons in February, accounting for 42.85% of the total import volume.
‘Processing trade’ covered 5,347 tons, accounting for 41.96% of the total.

China totally exported 172 tons of acrylic fiber in February, down by 260 tons from January’s 432 tons.

(ton, $/ton)
Acrylic Tow Imports by Origin( )
Jan 2011 Feb in 2011 Total in 2011
Origin
Imp. Volume Imp. Price Imp. Volume Imp. Price Imp. Volume Imp. Price
South Korea 1773 3124 617 3079 2391 3113
Japan 424 2929 700 3196 1123 3095
Taiwan 1423 3009 1094 2930 2517 2974
Belarus 1442 2503 -- -- 1442 2503
Others 4762 2676 4487 2985 9249 2826
Total 9824 2790 6898 3006 16722 2880
Acrylic Staple Imports by Origin (ton, $/ton)
Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Total in 2011
Origin
Imp. Volume Imp. Price Imp. Volume Imp. Price Imp. Volume Imp. Price
South Korea 1178 3219 793 3208 1971 3215
Japan 3956 3545 3606 3692 7562 3615
Taiwan 1901 3009 340 2606 2242 2948
Thailand 314 3183 362 2920 676 3042
Others 1718 3157 580 3210 2299 3171
Total 9068 3304 5681 3461 14750 3365
Acrylic Top Imports by Origin (ton, $/ton)
Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Total in 2010
Origin
Imp. Volume Imp. Price Imp. Volume Imp. Price Imp. Volume Imp. Price
South Korea -- -- -- -- -- --
Japan 3 18957 92 2971 95 3435
Taiwan 70 3664 -- -- 70 3664
Others 145 3084 70 3803 215 3319
Total 217 3472 163 3330 380 3411

- 27 -
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [AF]

Operation Status of Chinese Acrylic Fiber Producers


Capacity
Producer Plant Operation Remark
(kt/yr)
Shanghai Petrochemical 150 Normal To take maintenance for 15-20 days in Jun. 2011
Anqing Petrochemical 70 Normal
Qilu Petrochemical 60 Normal To take 25-day maintenance in H2 May 2011
Zhejiang Jinyong 60 Shutdown Shutdown since Sep. 2008
Daqing Petrochemical 65 Normal Take one-month turnaround from 8 Jul. 2010

Daqing Refining & Chemical 30 Shutdown Shutdown since Jan. 2008

Taking a turnaround from early March, 2011 and


Fushun Petrochemical 55 Maintenance Shutdown
to restart after May.
80% capacity of AF and 20% capacity of carbon
Jilin Qifeng 140 O/R at 100% fiber. Running 8 lines since early Jan. 2011 and
have annual turnaround in May.
Running 7 lines with full capacity since 2 Dec.
JiMont 100 O/R at 100%
2010, and have annual turnaround in May.
Maintenance shutdown on 5 Aug. 2010 due to
Hangzhou Bay Acrylic Fiber 60 O/R at 100%
power brownouts and restart on 20 Aug. 2010.
Qinhuangdao Alight 55 Shutdown Shutdown since May 2008

Ningbo Zhongxin Acrylic Restart in early Sep. 2010; running at 60% by 15


Fibers (former Ningbo 55 O/R at 100% Sep.; from 16 Sep, gradually ramp up to 100%
Rayon Acrylic Fibers) capacity.
In March, operating rates of domestic acrylic fiber units declined in line with several shutdowns, but major units
were still running stably. The details are as follows:
Week 1: The average run rate of the industry was around 75%.
Week 2: The average run rate of the industry was around 75%.
Week 3: The average run rate of the industry was around 75%.
Week 4: The average run rate of the industry was around 75%.
It is expected that domestic AF production in March will be less than February’s, and some specs will be in
tightness.

Supply & Demand in China

In March, domestic acrylic fiber market kept climbing. Bolstered by firm costs and healthy sale/production ratio, AF
makers mostly hiked offers in mid-March and spot talks moved higher further. However, downstream buyers slowed
following-up steps with the rising AF values, and yarn liquidity was sluggish amid a thicker wait-and-see sentiment. By
month end, producers mostly announced rollover settlement and nominations, only slight pickups for some tight products.
In the future, the upward momentum will weaken and the market will tend to range bound. April market is expected to
range bound at high levels amid lukewarm activities, but some popular products will still keep salable. The details are as
follows:
Production & Sale: In February, the run rates of Chinese producers dipped slightly. According to statistics, China's
acrylic fiber production totaled 54.41kt in February, down by 5.56kt from 59.97kt in January and down by 1.43% year on
year from 55.2kt. Sales volume in February slumped to 53.17kt from January’s 58.92kt, down by 9.76% on month but
1.17kt or 2.25% higher year on year from 52.0kt of last February. Average sale/production ratio of AF industry was
97.72% in February 2011, dropping slightly from January’s 98.25%.
Inventory: Though domestic production slumped in February, inventories continued to grow as sales were low.
According to statistics, the inventory level of the whole industry was at around 13.8kt by the end of February, a month-
on-month increase of 1.16kt from 13.8kt of January but a year-on-year drop of 18kt from 3.04kt of February 2010.
Apparent Consumption: In February, AF production in China decreased significantly; import volume also plunged,
while export volume dipped slightly year-on-year. Based on these, apparent consumption decreased by 14.84% to 66.98 kt
in February, from January’s 78.65kt, and down by 2.08% from 68.4kt of February 2010.

- 28 -
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [AF]

Supply & Demand in China (kt)


Total in
Dec Jan Feb Production, Sales, Stock in China
2011
Prod. A. Consump. Sales Stock
Production 54.1 59.97 54.41 114.38
100
80
Import 23.4 19.11 12.74 31.85 60
40
Export 0.28 0.43 0.17 0.60 20
0
Apparent
76.92 78.65 66.98 145.63 Unit: kt Set Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Consumption
Supply & Demand in Japan (kt)
Total in
Dec Jan Feb Production, Sales, Stock in Japan
2011

Production 11.58 11.11 10.92 22.03 Prod. A. Consump. Sales Stock


15
Import 0.124 0.031 0.111 0.142 10
5
Export 12.19 8.68 11.89 20.57 0
-5
Apparent Unit: kt Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
-0.486 2.46 -0.86 1.60
Consumption
CCFEI Comment
Upstream Raw Materials: Global crude market was amid fluctuations in March. In mid-month, crude values slumped
to $97/bbl impacted by Japan’s earthquake, but then rallied to over $101/bbl and hovered at $103-105/bbl. NYMEX
crude prices closed at $106.72/bbl by month end. Asian propylene prices surged through March. After the earthquake,
demand for FOB cargoes increased in line with emerging worries about supply, and FOB Korea prices thus rose to
$1,566/ton from $1,471/ton in early Mar. ACN market ranged bound at high levels on the whole in March. Despite a
strong uptrend in the first half of March, spot talks lagged while buyers purchased with caution and more chose to
sideline. Meanwhile, restricted by low and stable offers from northeast-China makers, discussions at ports were hard to
improve and spot talking prices climbed to 21,200-21,300 yuan/ton by end-March from 20,800-21,000 yuan/ton early
this month.
Downstream Acrylic Yarn: In March, yarn values mostly followed AF prices to rise, but the markups were limited as
spot liquidity was sluggish. Yarn makers generally operated their units stably, with major plants running at 80-90%
capacity, while some producers were still troubled with labor scarcity and power brownouts. As wait-and-see sentiment in
yarn market thickened through the month due to the softening cotton and viscose prices, yarn producers saw lower
sale/production ratio and some also met a hike in inventory. In general, downstream yarn market mainly ranged bound in
March and, with a higher temperature and fluctuations in values of related products like cotton, April yarn liquidity is
expected to be weak.
Supply: In March, some domestic AF units were shut down and the overall run rate thus declined. A slump in
production was expected, though the overall supply was passable. In USD-based AF market, prices remained much
higher than RMB-based numbers and producers still reported higher offers on the back of rising feedstock prices.
Talking sentiment for imports was quiet, but some differentiated products remained undersupplied, with prices firm and
high. In the short run, imports would continue to be limited. All in all, domestic supply dropped this month, though major
makers gave an ample supply, while import market was still lukewarm. It is predicted that in April, domestic spot supply
will be steady.
Demand: Demand for AF was tolerable on the whole in March. Early this month, producers witnessed healthy
sale/production ratios and stable obligation of contracts amid a bullish sentiment. However, with AF prices rising to high
levels and the lagging liquidity in yarn market, buyers slowed their buying steps in the second half month and more of
them sidelined to consume earlier stocks. Although some popular AF products remained quite salable, the overall trading
activities stabilized and the momentum weakened. In a nutshell, March demand remained healthy on the whole, but in
April, the demand is likely to weaken.
CCFEI Comment: In April, AF market will range bound at high levels and trading sentiment is hard to improve
impacted by poor macro environment and negative factors from related sectors. Some makers may see a rise in
inventory.

- 29 -
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [ABS]

ABS
Chinese ABS Production Status in March 2011 (Unit: kt/yr)
Producer Capacity Major Grade Stock Run Rate Remark
LG Yongxing 600 121H Low High Cut runs in late December 2010
Zhenjiang Chimei 450 707K, 757K Low High Restarted after New Year’s Day
Jilin Petrochem 190 0215A Normal 100%
Zhenjiang GPPC 250 D180, D190 Low High Restarted after New Year’s Day
FCFC Ningbo 360 15A1, 12A1 Normal 80%
One-month maintenance from early
Daqing Petrochem 100 750A Normal 100%
July
Gaoqiao Petrochem 200 Low 85% One line down for T/A
Old line shut down on 21 March; and
Panjin Ethylene 50 CH510 Low 40-50%
runs at low rates now
Changzhou Shinho 70 AC800, AC810 Normal 100% Maintenance during 14-19 Apr, 2009
Lanzhou Petrochem 50 301 Normal 40% New line closed, old one in operation
Yield on-spec products from 1 Nov.
Tianjin Dagu 200 DGMJ47 Low 90%
2010
In March, run rates of ABS units in East China were at around 80-95%, and major units in Northeast China mostly ran
at 100% capacity, with individuals operating at low rates.

ABS Market Situation in March 2011

Asia:
Week 1: There were no firm bids in ABS market, with assessments unchanged at $2,308/ton (CFR, China).
However, backed by too fast hikes of feedstock values in Asia, offers were heard at above $2,400/ton (CFR, China/
SEA).
Week 2: Asian ABS prices remained stable, with CFR offers at $2,350/ton or above the level in line with higher
prices of butadiene and acrylonitrile. Producers and traders said buyers refused to accept current too high price level.
Week 3: Backed by higher feedstock values, Asian ABS prices rose by $22/ton to $2,330/ton (CFR, China) month-
on-month. In early the third week, Japan’s earthquake caused tight supply concerns, which pushed styrene prices up
sharply. However, the prices retreated, as styrene producers in Japan didn’t hit by the earthquake.
Week 4: With bearish ABS market and decreasing offers, Asian ABS prices dropped by $40/ton to $2,270/ton
(CFR China) and $2,280/ton (CFR SEA).

Europe:
H1 Mar: With continuous hikes of feedstock values, European ABS producers issued higher contract nominations
by Eur80-120/ton, but buyers refused producers to pass on high feedstock costs to them.
H2 Mar: European ABS producers expected that feedstock butadiene contract prices for April will rise by
Eur135/ton due to tight supply at that time caused by the turnaround on butadiene units and steam crackers and strong
downstream demand. However, contract prices for styrene were expected to move down.
And ABS prices closed March at $2,335-2,345/ton CFR NWE.
The US:
In March, the US ABS prices were stable-to-firm supported robust demand. Feedstock values remained on high-
position on the whole, though styrene market softened a little. ABS producers said the cost increases need to pass on
to consumers, but they were worried that a significant hike might force consumers to purchase other plastic products
instead of ABS.
And inj grade ABS closed March at 124-126 cts/lb (delivered, rail) in the USA.

Apparent Demand for ABS in China (Unit: ton, $/ton)


Sep. 2010 Oct. 2010 Nov. 2010 Dec. 2010 Jan. 2011 Feb. 2011
Production 127708 140367 160063 152040 150790 156275
Import Volume 191790 172248 191157 184893 171317 127398
Av. Import Value 1975 1997 2049 2111 2164 2162

- 30 -
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net Mar 2011 [MDI & PTMEG]

Pure MDI
Contract Price (yuan/ton, $/ton) 24000 2800

22400 RMB USD 2600


Month Change Range Prev. Month
20800 2400
Mar Settled ↗ 21000-22400 20500-21400
19200 2200
RMB 22000-
Apr Listed ↗ 21500-22500 17600 2000
23200
Mar Settled ↗ 2450-2600 2400-2550 16000 1800
Y/T Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar $/T
USD
Apr Listed ↗ 2600-2750 2500-2600

In Mar, domestic pure MDI market ranged bound following the hikes at first. Prices for direct-supply materials
were at 20,500-22,000 yuan/ton, while spot goods were traded at around 21,500-22,000 yuan/ton by month end in East
China, with central values at 21,700 yuan/ton or so and higher numbers for small parcels delivered, and in South China,
trading prices were at 21,500-22,000 yuan/ton, with high end for NPU-origin goods and upward revisions for small
parcels, deals on credit and on a D/A basis.
As for demand, downstream operating rates were moderate, hereinto, that at PU slurry sector was at about 80%;
that at PU resin sector dropped slightly; that at TPU sector was at 70% or so; that at spandex sector was relatively
higher. However, some pure MDI producers tended to lower the prices given weak downstream demand as downstream
converters mainly purchased from hand to mouth. Traders met poor sales, mainly supplying for regular buyers, and they
mostly held on to the prices given high cost pressure, despite the difficulties to raise the prices on muted demand.
As for supply, Japan’s earthquake in early-to-mid Mar did not impact NPU’s Japan-based plant a lot, but its plant
located in Rui’An, Zhejiang province was in unstable operation in Mar, and at the month end, its Japan-based 130 kt/yr
plant was shut down. However, the market reacted insipidly towards the turnaround. In late Mar, Apr nominations
gradually came out, with different increases. Wanhua settled Mar contract higher by 1,000 yuan/ton, thus distributors
mulled up their offers. But, trading prices still lagged behind. With the holiday around the corner, suppliers mainly
maintained stable offers amid lusterless sentiment.
Import & Export in Feb (Ton, $)
1 6 00 0
Imp. Vol. Imp. Val. Exp. Vol. Exp. Val. 1 4 00 0
Japan 4868 11674291 205 598575
1 2 00 0
1 0 00 0
S. Korea 2398 5631129 17 48389 8 00 0
6 00 0
USA 67 149899 0 0
A p r Ju n A ug O ct D ec Feb
Others 1153 3054749 3401 6824908 Ton

On 11 Mar, Yantai Wanhua’s integrated MDI project started up in Yantai Economic Development Zone.
NPU’s Nanyo-based MDI unit was not influenced obviously by the earthquake on 11 Mar due to its far distance from
seismic origin, so its production was relatively normal and future supply is not restricted for the moment.
Bay Material Science planned to invest €100 million on its MDI plant in Brunsbüttel industrial park in Germany.
After the expansion, the capacity is expected to reach 420 kt/yr from the former 200 kt/yr, and its TDI unit will also
be transformed to produce pure MDI.
Due to power rationing in Zhejiang, NPU’s Rui’an-based 50 kt/yr MDI rectification unit was shut down on 18 Mar,
and resumed operation on around 23 Mar.
BASF’s Chongqing-based 400 kt/yr MDI project was approved officially, and it is expected to start up in 2014.
Shutdown plans from several MDI producers since May: 200kt/yr unit in Yantai for 3-4 weeks in mid May at Yantai
Wanhua; 60kt/yr unit in Omuta from 11 May to 13 Jun at Mitsubishi; 70kt/yr and 130kt/yr units in turn for about 6
weeks in early May at Japan’s NPU; 160kt/yr fractionation unit planned in Shanghai in Apr-May at Huntsman, with
details pending.
NPU’s Nanyo-based 130kt/yr unit was shutdown due to equipment failure in late Mar, and would be restarted in Jul-
Aug at latest.

-31 -
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net Mar 2011 [MDI & PTMEG]

PTMEG
Contract Price (yuan/ton, $/ton) 32000 3800
Month Change Range Prev. Month 30000 RMB USD 3600
28000 3400
Mar Settled ↗ 28500-32000 28000-30500 26000 3200
RMB
24000 3000
Apr Listed ↗ 30500-34000 29500-33000 22000 2800
20000 2600
Mar Settled ↗ 3700-4100 3520-3800
USD Y/T MarAprMayJun Jul AugSep OctNovDec Jan FebMar $/T
Apr Listed ↗ 3900-4300 3750-4100
In Mar, central PTMEG prices ranged bound following the hikes at first on the back of high BDO costs. Downstream
spandex producers showed fewer acceptances towards higher PTMEG prices given thinner profit margins on softening
sale/production ratios, but in line with higher Mar nominations from Taiwan’s Dairen Chemical and its firm attitude,
contract prices hiked on the whole, and with more orders signed at surged numbers, central PTMEG prices stabilized at
29,500-31,000 yuan/ton. As for non-spandex sectors, PTMEG prices also hiked backed by higher feedstock values and
better downstream demand. Homemade MW-2000 materials were offered at 31,000-32,000 yuan/ton, while imported
materials were quoted at 33,000-34,000 yuan/ton. MW-1000 materials were mainly imported, with tight availability, and
its offers were pegged at 34,000-36,000 yuan/ton, with high-end values for Mitsubishi- and BASF-origin cargoes.
Imports in Feb (Ton, $) 13000
Imp. Volume Imp. Value 11000
Japan 126 508603 9000
7000
Taiwan 4457 15860928
5000
S. Korea 473 1988411 3000
Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb
Others 587 1803057 Ton

In early Mar, Taiwan’s Dairen Chemical announced that it planned to build a 30kt/yr BDO unit and another related
unit in Jiangsu Yangzhou Chemical Industrial Park.
When the earthquake hit Japan on 11 Mar, Mitsubishi Chemical immediately closed its 100kt/yr BDO unit and
35kt/yr related unit, and the units resumed operations right after the disaster.
MCC Advanced Polymers (Ningbo)’s 25kt/yr PTMEG unit was shut down in late Mar for a 6-week turnaround.
Japanese Mitsubishi Chemical’s 100kt/yr BDO unit and 35kt/yr related unit were shut down as planned in late Mar
for a 6-7-week turnaround.
Hyosung Spandex (China) initially planned to turn around its 30kt/yr PTMEG unit in Zhapu, Jiaxing for annual
maintenance with duration of about 15 days.
CCFEI Comment
Pure MDI: In Apr spot pure MDI market, it is expected that traders will raise their offers given high cost
pressure, while downstream demand will improve little. On one hand, downstream buyers will show limited acceptances
towards higher feedstock costs, as the prices for their products are hard to hike. On the other hand, downstream
demand has seen no significant improvement on the whole. Though many pure MDI suppliers have announced shutdown
plans, downstream converters react insipidly, which indicates their pessimistic outlook towards pure MDI market. And
they will not purchase initiatively with the lack of favorable profit margins. Furthermore, they will be cautious about
placing long-term orders with an uncertain uptrend for pure MDI. It is expected that prices for direct-supply pure MDI
will hike to 21,500-22,500 yuan/ton, while central spot values may also climb to 22,000 yuan/ton. If supply shrinks in H2
Apr following the shutdowns, prices may stay firm. Otherwise, prices will drop in line with passable supply but weak
demand.

PTMEG: Spandex producers showed certain resistance towards higher PTMEG prices given their shrinking profit
margins in Mar, but PTMEG producers still showed strong intentions to raise the prices on the back on high cost
pressure resulting from steady BDO offers at 22,500-24,000 yuan/ton on its tight availability. By end Mar, Taiwan’s
Dairen Chemical announced Apr nominations at $3,900/ton, and Mitsubishi Chemical settled the prices at 32,500
yuan/ton following the shutdowns of its two units in Japan and Ningbo. Coupled with some PTMEG orders signed at
increased numbers, PTMEG prices for Apr were pushed up to 30,500-33,000 yuan/ton.

-32 -
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [Spandex]

Spandex
Offers from Producers (yuan/kg)
98000
20D 30D 40D 70D 20D 30D 40D
78000
High 80-84 70-74 61-65 61-65
58000
Medium 77-80 66-69 58-60 58-60
38000
Low 73-76 64-65 54-57 55-57 Y/T
Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar

March witnessed central spandex prices gradually drop. In early Mar, spandex prices were stable on the whole,
backed by high crude futures that breached $100/bbl and increasing costs on spandex producers with tightening
PTMEG availability, as well as the optimistic market outlook amid the busy season. However, due to high prices for key
textile feedstock that absorbed more capitals from most traders and downstream mills and rising inventories at
spandex producers resulting from the weak spandex demand on suppressed terminal orders, a few traders started to
offer discounts from mid Mar, despite still stable spandex values. Thus, more low-priced spandex became available and
central spot prices fell in general. Meantime, downstream converters were more cautious about purchasing amid heavier
bearish outlook. Given such impact, spandex suppliers tended to sell at lower prices. In late Mar, with lusterless spot
trading and rising spandex inventories, many spandex suppliers provided more promotions, and thus mainstream trading
prices gradually moved towards the low end of the range with widening price gap.
Weekly Spot Average (yuan/ton)
Week Time 20D 40D 20D (M) 20D 20D (M) 40D

Week 1 1Mar-4Mar 81900 61600 72800 86000


76000
Week 2 7Mar-11Mar 81000 61000 72500
66000
Week 3 14Mar-18Mar 80800 60800 72500
56000
Week 4 21Mar-25Mar 79600 59600 72500 46000
Week 5 28Mar-1Apr 78700 58700 72500 Y/T 1Apr 31May 30Jul 28Sep 27Nov 26Jan 27Mar
Export Market
According to China Customs, China exported 2,224 tons of spandex yarns in Feb 2011, a 1,016-ton decrease on
month, including 2,042 tons in tariff No. 54024410, down by 26.81% on month, and 182 tons (non-spandex included) in
tariff No. 54024900. The average export price was at $7.24/kg, up by 0.7% on month. Within the same month, China
imported 1,192 tons of spandex yarns in all, decreasing by 305 tons on month, with 950 tons in tariff No. 54024410,
down by 2.56% on month, and 242 tons (non-spandex included) in tariff No. 54024900. The average import price was at
$7.71/kg, down by 11.5% on month.
In Mar, trading sentiment in spandex export market was weak on the whole given lukewarm enquiring atmosphere
among overseas distributors and downstream mills. And in line with dropping mainstream spandex prices in China
domestic market in Mar, as well as more sales pressures on sellers from low-priced spandex availability, some
distributors slowed down their fulfillment of the contracts. Hereinto, in South America and Europe, run rates at
downstream mills were still low, so their demand was weak, and thus some distributors who purchased spandex at high
prices in previous days became less interested in procurement; in Southeast Asia, with more ex-Europe and ex-America
orders arriving, run rates at local downstream mills improved, leading to better enquiring sentiment. However, overall
prices softened, hereinto, trading prices for 20D orders were at $8.4-9.5/kg, with those for direct-supply buyers at
around $10/kg, while the prices for 40D orders were at $6.3-7/kg, with those for a few spots at around $8/kg, all on a
FOB basis. Profit margins of domestic spandex producers fell given surging ocean freight and RMB exchange rate.
Statistics on Imp. & Exp. Of Spandex (54024410) in China (Ton)
Imp. Vol. Jan Imp. Vol. Feb Imp. Jan-Feb Exp. Vol. Jan Exp. Vol. Feb Exp. Jan-Feb
S. Korea 109 54 163 443 543 986
Turkey - - - 206 152 357
Hong
- - - 241 158 398
Kong
Brazil - - - 170 73 243
USA 26 44 70 169 120 289
Italy - - - 117 73 190
Others 840 853 1,693 1,446 924 2,369
Total 975 950 1,943 2,790 2,042 4,832

- 33 -
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [Spandex]

Operation Status of Spandex Producers & Converters


1. Hyosung Spandex (Jiaxing) started the construction of its 10kt/yr spandex unit in early March, and the unit is
expected to be on line at end 2011, mainly producing warp-knitting-oriented and heat-resistant 20D and 40D products.
2. Hangzhou Asahi Kasei Spandex planned to add a new 1,000-t/a spinning line to meet customers' requirements. The
project had passed local environmental impact assessment and was set to be fed up at the end of 2011. However, given the
recent complaints from nearby residents, the plan was suspended.
3. Some spandex producers started to offer discounts secretly in mid Mar given shrinking demand, more calls for
lower spandex prices and distributors’ profit-taking-oriented operations.
4. Shei Yung Hsin Spandex planned to resume half capacities of its Taiwan-based 6kt/yr unit in early May.
5. The rest 5 kt/yr line of the new 10 kt/yr spandex unit at Taekwang Synthetic Fiber (Changshu) was started up in
early March.
6. Zhejiang Huahai Group had started to eliminate its existing 1st-phase 4.5 kt/yr spandex unit based on Toyobo
process and meantime rebuild a 5 kt/yr unit in December 2010. It is expected that the unit will start operation in early
April.
7. Hangzhou Banglian Spandex planned to raise funds for its 12 kt/yr heat-resisting and 10 kt/yr soft spandex
projects, which had all passed official approvals regarding environmental impact.
Circular-knitting Covering Core-spinning Warp-knitting Lace
Operating rate (%) 52% 69% 68% 70% 52%
In March, operating rates recovered to around 50% in Xiaoshan and Shaoxing and to 50-60%
Circular-knitting in Changshu; mills in Ningbo ran higher at 40% capacities; mills in Jiangyin ran higher at 60%
capacity, and those in Foshan, Guangdong, ran lower at 50%.
In March, operating rates in Yiwu and Zhuji improved to 70-80%, while AJ-covered yarn mills
Covering in Xiaoshan and Shaoxing were running higher at 60-70% capacities. In Zhangjiagang, AJ-covered
yarn mills ran at 50% capacities; and mechanically covered yarn mills ran at 70% capacities.
In Zhangjiagang, operating rates rose to 70%. In Shandong, run rates dropped to 40-50%,
Core-spinning
while in Changzhou the rates were at 60%.
Run rates at warp-knitting mills in Jinjiang rose to 70-80%, while lacing mills in Changle ran at
Warp-knitting &
50-60% capacities. In Haining, warp-knitting machines ran stably at around 60% capacity in line
Lace
with power rationing policies. In Chaozhou & Shantou, overall run rate climbed to above 80%.
CCFEI Comment

Cost: With fewer acceptances towards higher PTMEG prices from spandex producers on their softening
sale/production ratios, price revision on new PTMEG orders were impacted somewhat, but by end Mar, given higher Apr
nominations for PTMEG from Taiwan’s Dairen Chemical on high BDO values with some orders signed at hiked numbers, as
well as higher Mar contract settlement and Apr nomination from Wanhua for pure MDI, operating costs on spandex
producers will increase further in April.

Demand: In March, spandex demand was still weak as downstream converters were less active in production given
the lack of orders from terminal market resulting from softening prices for key textile feedstock, while at the same
time, converters became more cautious about purchasing with the decrease of mainstream spandex values. However, as
stocks at traders and downstream will be soon used up, demand may expand in the future.

Supply: Though demand may increase in the future in line with higher run rates at downstream mills and the
inventory depletion at distributors, supply will still be ample given heavier inventory pressure at spandex suppliers on
weak terminal demand and softening spandex sentiment.

To sum up: Inventory pressure at spandex producers further increased at current high levels, while downstream
mills and distributors frequently talked the prices done for each deal. Given such impact, some spandex producers are
still likely to mull down the prices to relieve the pressures, but as feedstock costs will increase in April, which will
impose more operating costs on spandex producers, and demand is probably to improve with the use-up of previous
stocks, it is expected that spandex market will gradually stabilize from current weakness in April.

- 34 -
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [Pulp & Linter]

Viscose Feedstock
Market Price for Chinese Viscose Feedstock (yuan/ton)

Cotton Linter Cotton Pulp Cotton Pulp Wood Pulp


Time
(Shandong) (Staple Grade) (Filament Grade) ($/ton)

1Mar-6Mar 13,000 21,500 23,000 2,600

7Mar-13Mar 12,900 21,600 23,300 2,600

14Mar-20Mar 12,270 21,600 23,300 2,600

21Mar-27Mar 11,520 21,518 23,250 2,600

28Mar-31Mar 10,000 21,380 23,250 2,600

Ave. in Mar. 11,938 21,519 23,220 2,600

Output and Prices for Cotton Pulp in China

Prices for Staple-grade Cotton Pulp in Nov. 2010-Mar. 2011


Cotton Pulp Monthly Output in China in Nov. 2010-Mar. 2011

80000
23000
75000
21500
70000 20000
65000 18500
60000 17000
55000 15500
50000 14000
mt Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Y/T 30Oct 23Nov 17Dec 10Jan 3Feb 27Feb 23Mar

Pie Chart for Cotton Pulp Production Shares in China by Province in March

4% 4%

18%
20% Sichuan
Xinjiang
Hubei
Henan

5% Jilin
Shandong
19% Hebei
14% Others

16%

- 35 -
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [Pulp & Linter]

Statistics on Imports of Cotton Linter to China (ton, $/ton)


Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Jan-Feb 2011
Origin
Imp. Vol. Imp. Val. Imp. Vol. Imp. Val. Imp. Vol. Imp. Val.

India 5,360 1,183 3,490 1,341 8,851 1,245

Uzbekistan 891 1,230 2,724 1,210 3,616 1,215

USA 2,485 1,130 2,664 1,130 5,149 1,130

Turkey 3,733 1,308 1,781 1,297 5,514 1,304

Turkmenistan 1,381 1,008 685 1,409 2,066 1,141

Others — — — — — —
Total Vol. /Ave.
16,778 1,153 11,891 1,240 28,670 1,189
Val.

Based on the data from China's Customs, cotton linter imports to China in February 2011 totaled 11,891 tons, with
the average import price at $1,240/ton, up by $87/ton from January. The top three countries that exported cotton
linter to China in February are in order of India, Uzbekistan and the USA, with the average prices at $1,341/ton,
$1,210/ton and $1,130/ton separately.
TFN: 14042000

Statistics on Imports of Dissolving-grade Wood Pulp (ton, $/ ton)


Jan 2011 Feb 2011 Jan-Feb 2011
Origin
Imp. Vol. Imp. Val. Imp. Vol. Imp. Val. Imp. Vol. Imp. Val.

Brazil 20,907 1,957 18,078 1,940 28,985 1,949

Canada 20,161 1,977 13,305 2,079 33,467 2,017

USA 12,854 1,568 8,894 1,635 21,749 1,596

Indonesia 11,244 1,685 7,390 2,124 18,634 1,859

Sweden 5,180 1,585 5,226 1,898 10,407 1,742

Others — — — — — —
Total Vol./Ave.
95,111 1,774 63,967 1,925 159,079 1,835
Val.
Based on the data from China's Customs, dissolving-grade wood pulp imports to China in February 2011 totaled
63,967 tons, with the average import price at $1,925/ton, up by $151/ton from January. The top three exporters to
China in February are in order of Brazil, Canada, and the USA, with the export volumes at 18,078 tons, 13,305 tons and
8,894 tons respectively, and the average export prices at $1,940/ton, $2,079/ton and $1,635/ton separately.
TFN: 47020000

CCFEI Comment
Demand for cotton linter was weak on falling prices of cotton spots and futures, as well as the popularity of paper
pulp. In March, cotton linter sentiment softened greatly, with prices for regular linter dropping from 12,000 yuan/ton to
below 10,000 yuan/ton, and those for filament-grade cotton linter declining from 13,500 yuan/ton to 11,500-12,000
yuan/ton. April may see further decreases, with mainstream prices for regular linter likely at 8,500 yuan/ton.

After the Pulp Conference, trading prices for cotton pulp had hiked to 22,500 yuan/ton but soon fell to 21,000-
21,500 yuan/ton. In the dissolving-grade pulp market, offers were seen at $2,800-3,000/ton, but talks remained at
$2,600/ton as buyers refrained from purchasing. Meanwhile, products priced within $2,000-2,400/ton had successively
arrived at ports in China. Prices for cotton pulp and dissolving-grade wood pulp spots are expected to break through
20,000 yuan/ton next month.

- 36 -
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011[VSF]

Viscose Staple
Average Price (yuan/ton) Weekly Average for Spot 1.5D VSF (yuan/ton)
Month Change Mainstream Prev. Month Time Mainstream

Week 1 1Mar-6Mar 28,240


Settled Week 2 7Mar-13Mar 28,300
↑ 28,200 26,300
1.5D for Feb Week 3 14Mar-20Mar 28,300
VSF
Week 4 21Mar-27Mar 28,100
Settled Week 5 28Mar-31Mar 27,020
↓ 26,500 28,200
for Mar Monthly Ave. in Mar 27,998

VSF Price in Jan-Apr 2011 (Y/T) OR and Inventory for VSF in Nov 2010-Mar 2011 (%, days)

36500 100% 35
33500
90% Inventory Operating rate 30
30500 25
27500
80% 20
1 .5 D V S F 70% 15
24500
3 0 S sp u n ray o n ya rn 10
21500 60% 5
18500
50% 0
1 Ja n 1 6 J an 3 1 Ja n 15Feb 2M ar 17M ar 1Apr
13Nov 29Nov 16Dec 6Jan 15Jan 29Jan 25Feb 17Mar

Market Description & Industry News

Market Description

VSF market saw a quick downslide in March, with the second half in particular. Within the first two weeks, VSF
producers held offers at 28,500 yuan/ton despite a markedly thinner liquidity as compared with the past few months.
At mid-month, producers were advised by the Viscose Staple Industrial Conference to pull up offers by 100 yuan/ton to
stimulate market sentiment, only to find themselves caught in a completely different situation. As some producers
began to offload at low levels, market prices weakened, with mainstream talks trending towards 27,500 yuan/ton. Later,
trading prices at some producers with bearish expectations declined by a daily 500 yuan/ton, further dampening market
sentiment. Some producers pended settlements or turned to monthly settlements, but their efforts were in vain.
Converters still refrained from buying feedstock, especially as VSF prices changed every day in the last two weeks.

By the end of March, mainstream talks were at 26,000-26,500 yuan/ton, with a few producers offloading stocks at
24,500-25,500 yuan/ton. Although talks came that large-size deals were done while prices were seen at 25,000
yuan/ton, 24,000 yuan/ton or 23,000 yuan/ton, no confirmed deals were heard by month-end.

Downstream spun rayon yarn prices also corrected downwards. Under increasing inventory pressure, some cotton
spinning mills began to cut production or switch to polyester yarn production. Offers for spun rayon yarn 30S sank to
below 30,000 yuan/ton from 33,800 yuan/ton. Given constant falls in yarn prices, weaving & knitting mills hesitated in
placing feedstock orders, despite limited yarn stocks and passable order-intakes.

Industry News

At the Viscose Staple Industrial Conference held on 18 March in Chengdu, representatives decided to raise offers
by 100 yuan/ton. After the adjustment, offers for first-class and second-class 1.5D were beyond 29,000 yuan/ton and
28,600 yuan/ton respectively.

The Second Symposium of Tenbro Bamboo Fiber Application and Product Development was held on 20 March in
Shaoxing, and the participants consisted of the China National Textile & Apparel Council, the local government and 52
enterprise representatives. The symposium was of great significance to promoting the application of Tenbro bamboo
fiber in the shuttle weaving sector.

- 37 -
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011[VSF]

Statistics on Imports of VSF into China (tons, $/ton)

Jan Feb Jan-Feb 2011


Origin
Imp. Vol. Imp. Val. Imp. Vol. Imp. Val. Imp. Vol. Imp. Val.
Indonesia 1,099 2,424 2,094 2,993 3,194 2,797
Austria 937 3,208 600 3,320 1,538 3,252
Thailand 199 3,227 186 3,100 386 3,165
Japan 273 3,982 183 3,457 456 3,771
India 67 2,832 160 3,050 227 2,986
Others — — — — — —

Total/Ave. Val. 2,842 2,953 3,464 3,097 6,306 3,032

According to the data from China Customs, VSF imports into China in February 2011 totaled 3,464 tons at an
average price of $3,097/ton, up by $162/ton from January. The top three exporters in February were in order of
Indonesia, Austria and Thailand, with export volumes into China at 2,094 tons, 600 tons and 186 tons respectively, while
the average prices were at $2,933/ton, $3,320/ton and $3,100/ton separately.
Note: Above data is under the tariff number of 55041090

Statistics on Exports of Chinese VSF (tons, $/ton)

Jan Feb Jan-Feb 2011


Destination
Exp. Vol. Exp. Val. Exp. Vol. Exp. Val. Exp. Vol. Exp. Val.

Turkey 6,656 3,114 4,237 3,150 10,893 3,128

USA 1,105 2,851 949 3,036 2,054 2,936

Chinese Taiwan 557 3,054 299 3,325 856 3,149

South Korea 415 2,975 254 3,181 669 3,053

Egypt 284 3,000 203 2,999 488 3,000

Others — — — — — —

Total/Ave. Val. 10,169 3,086 6,494 3,152 16,664 3,112

Based on the data from China's Customs, China exported 6,494 tons of VSF in February 2011 at an average price of
$3,152/ton, up by $66/ton from January. The top three importers of China-origin VSF in February are in order of
Turkey, the United States and Chinese Taiwan, with respective import volumes at 4,237 tons, 949 tons and 299 tons,
while the average prices were at $3,150/ton, $3,036/ton and $3,325/ton separately.

Note: Above data is under the tariff number of 55041090

CCFEI Comment
VSF prices have kept falling, putting much pressure on producers, but this month only saw some small-size
producers cut run rates. If the downtrend continues in April, production will be cut on a large scale. The downward
adjustment of textile export rebate rate will exert negative influence on viscose market, especially if talks are true
that the rebate rate of viscose derivatives would be cut by large margins.
In April, VSF prices are expected to stay within 23,000-24,000 yuan/ton, back to the lowest level before the
Spring Festival. If prices can bottom out at the end of April, H1 2011 may see another round of uptrend.

- 38 -
China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [VFY]

Viscose Filament Yarn


Mainstream Market Price for VFY in Linping, Zhejiang (yuan/ton)
Weekly Average for Spot VFY (Jan-Mar 2011)
Time Bright 120D Bright 150D Bright 300D
120D 150D 300D
1Mar-6Mar 50,470 46,770 42,600 56000
53000
7Mar-13Mar 51,000 46,810 42,700
50000
14Mar-20Mar 51,200 46,900 42,700 47000
44000
21Mar-27Mar 51,000 46,900 42,680 41000
28Mar-31Mar 50,950 46,880 42,680 38000
Y/T 5Jan 19Jan 2Feb 16Feb 2Mar 16Mar 30Mar
Ave. in Mar. 50,924 46,852 42,672

This month, VFY values saw both increases and decreases. In early March, producers nominated a 1,000 yuan/ton

raise, quoting first-class, second-class and third-class 120D at 56,000 yuan/ton, 55,000 yuan/ton and 53,000-54,000

yuan/ton respectively. However, trading prices lagged behind as distributors were still holding some low-priced

products, while buyers played cautiously given the record high VFY prices. Export activities were relatively more

optimistic.

In mid-to-late March, VFY market weakened under the downward pressure from lower VSF prices. Although offers

were stable on reasonable inventories and passable export order-intakes, prices kept falling, constraining trading

activities and causing inventories to build at producers. By the end of the month, low-end prices for third-class 120D

were seen below 50,000 yuan/ton.

Statistics on Imports of VFY to China (ton, $/ton)

Jan Feb Jan-Feb 2011


Origin
Imp. Vol. Imp. Val. Imp. Vol. Imp. Val. Imp. Vol. Imp. Val.

China Mainland 554 4,450 182 3,443 737 4,201

Chinese Taiwan 2 4,271 20 5,847 23 5,646

Italy 2 28,535 6 20,415 9 22,528

Japan 5 13,865 2 21,638 7 16,051

Hong Kong — — 1 1,924 2 2,785

Others — — — — — —
Total Vol./Ave.
588 4,679 214 4,384 803 4,600
Val.
According to China Customs, China imported 214 tons of VFY in February 2011 at an average price of $4,384/ton,

down by $295/ton from January 2011. The top three exporters to China in February are in order of China Mainland,

Chinese Taiwan and Italy, with export volumes of 182 tons, 20 tons and 6 tons respectively, while the average prices

were at $3,443/ton, $5,847/ton and $20,415/ton separately.

TFN: 54031000, 54033190, 54033290, 54034100

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China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network www.ccfei.net March 2011 [VFY]

Statistics on Exports of Chinese VFY (ton, $/ton)

Jan Feb Jan-Feb 2011


Destination
Exp. Vol. Exp. Val. Exp. Vol. Exp. Val. Exp. Vol. Exp. Val.

India 1,269 7,403 1,327 7,553 2,470 7,552

Pakistan 1,770 6,170 975 6,376 1,805 6,312

Turkey 633 6,726 791 7,288 1,534 7,100

South Korea 1,089 6,405 667 7,203 1,545 7,217

Italy 385 6,550 519 7,241 1,091 7,074

Others — — — — — —
Total Vol./Ave.
6,900 6,416 5,018 7,079 1,047 6,967
Val.

Statistics from China Customs showed that China exported 5,018 tons of VFY in February 2011 at an average price

of $7,079/ton, up by $665/ton from last month. The top three importers from China in February were in order of

India, Pakistan and Turkey, with import volumes at 1,327 tons, 975 tons and 791 tons respectively and the average

prices at $7,553/ton, $6,376/ton and $7,288/ton separately.

TFN: 54033100, 54033200

Pie Chart for VFY Production Distribution by Producer in March (estimated)

6%

Jilin Chemical Fiber


18% Baoding Chemical Fiber
21% Xinxiang Chemical Fiber
Shandong Helon

16% Hunan Heli


4% Jidan Chemical Fiber
Hubei Golden Ring
3% Yibin Grace
2 6%
4% Othe rs

2%

CCFEI Comment

After the post-Spring Festival bloom fades away, VFY market is now lacking strength to go further upwards. In
April, VFY prices are expected to range bound in weakness, under the impact from VSF sentiment, and producers may
offer more discounts in order to offload.

- 40 -
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