The Effects of Population

Growth on Land Use

In an article in Yale University’s Environment 360, Jonathan Foley,
Director of theInstitute of the Environment, University of Minnesota,
argues that the global community now faces a “crisis in land use and
agriculture that could undermine the health, security, and
sustainability of our civilization.” While climate change has received
enormous attention (rightfully, Foley argues), human population
growth, and the corresponding rising global demand for meat and
dairy products, as well as the growing need for bioenergy from corn,
sugarcane, and other sources should be equal cause for concern.
“We are putting tremendous pressure on the world’s resources.”
With 70 million new people per year, Foley argues, “if we want any
hope of keeping up with these demands, we’ll need to double,
perhaps triple, the agricultural production of the planet in the next
30 to 40 years.”
Foley said meeting the agricultural needs of a growing global
population is difficult enough, but, at the same time, countries
must meet growing food production needs while mitigating the
effects of agricultural production on land-based ecosystems.
“Already, we have cleared or converted more than 35 percent of the
earth’s ice-free land surface for agriculture, whether for croplands,
pastures or rangelands. In fact, the area used for agriculture is nearly
60 times larger than the area of all of the world’s cities and suburbs.
Since the last ice age, nothing has been more disruptive to the
planet’s ecosystems than agriculture.”
Agricultural puts pressure on lands, but also on water systems.
“Across the globe, we already use a staggering 4,000 cubic
kilometers of water per year, withdrawn from our streams, rivers,
lakes and aquifers. Of this, 70 percent is used for irrigation, the
single biggest use of water, by far, on the globe. As a result, many
large rivers have greatly reduced flows and some routinely dry up.
And the extraction of water from deep groundwater reserves is
almost universally unsustainable, and has resulted in rapidly
declining water tables in many regions of the world. Future water
demands from increasing population and agricultural consumption
will likely climb between 4,500 and 6,200 cubic kilometers per year,
hugely compounding the impacts of climate change, especially in
arid regions.”
Not only are water and land resources put under stress, but current
agricultural practices create pollution. “Agriculture, particularly the
use of industrial fertilizers and other chemicals, has fundamentally
upset the chemistry of the entire planet. Already, the use of
fertilizers has more than doubled the flows of nitrogen and
phosphorus compounds in the environment, resulting in widespread
water pollution and the massive degradation of lakes and rivers.
Excess nutrient pollution is now so widespread, it is even
contributing to the disruption of coastal oceans and fishing grounds
by creating hypoxic “dead zones,” including one in the Gulf of
Mexico.” Another form of pollution results from current agricultural
and land use practices: C02 emissions. According to Foley, current
practices, including clearing forests for agricultural land, contribute
30 percent of the currently unsustainable C02 emission levels.
Foley points to a few possible solutions: invest in “revolutionary”
agricultural practices, a new “greener” agricultural revolution; and
improve agricultural production while also mitigating environmental
impacts. Foley says there is room for hope. “In recent years, for
example, U.S. farmers — working with agricultural experts — have
dramatically improved practices in the corn and soybean belt, cutting
down on erosion, nutrient loss, and groundwater pollution, even as
yields have continued to increase.”
What Is Meant by Land
Use Change?
Because of the vertical and horizontal heterogeneity of landscapes,
researchers from many disciplines use land survey data. Zoologically
oriented landscape ecologists study the effects of horizontal
heterogeneity on animal populations (Merriam, 1984; Forman,
1982). Similarly, the data can be used to help answer a key question
for humankind: Is the survival of groups of people essentially
dependent on landscape heterogeneity? Agriculture and other human
activities imply it is.
Landscape ecology is concerned with the study of land or landscape,
its form, function, and genesis (change). It looks at the factors
interacting at the earth's surface, including the physical, biological,
and noospherical actions originated by humans. These factors form
three-dimensional phenomena that can be seen as horizontal
patterns of related elements (units of land) and as vertical patterns
of land attributes, such as climate, rock, soil, water, and vegetation.
The heterogeneity of these patterns is the main focus of landscape
ecology.
A landscape is viewed as a holistic entity that is composed of a
variety of relationships in a relatively steady state. The maintenance
of a steady state is called homeostasis, which refers to the set of
positive and negative feedback factors that keep the system in a
dynamic equilibrium. The steady state may evolve into another
steady state over time, but it is protected from strong fluctuations by
feedback factors (homeorhesis).
Population Pressure, Land
Tenure, and Natural Resource
Management
Massive degradation of natural resources, including forests,
rangeland, and irrigation water, has been taking place in the
Third World. Its growing population has increased demand
for land, trees, and water, which, coupled with tenure
insecurity or the absence of clear property rights, has
resulted in the over-exploitation of these natural resources
(e.g., Deacon 1994). This in turn has threatened the
sustainable development of agriculture, forestry, and
livestock sectors. The critical question is whether the current
trend will continue and result in further degradation of
natural resources and, ultimately, the significant
deterioration of human welfare.

Boserup (1965) argued that population pressure need not

result in such disastrous consequences. Rather, she argued
that it leads to the evolution of farming systems from
landusing or natural resource-using systems, such as
shifting cultivation, to land-saving and laborintensive
farming systems, such as annual cropping.1 Her argument,
however, is incomplete: while she acknowledged that
investment is required to establish intensive farming
systems (e.g., investment in the construction of irrigation
facilities, terracing, and tree planting), she paid insufficient
attention to incentive systems which ensure that the
appropriate nvestments are made. It is widely recognized
that investment incentives are governed by the land tenure
or property rights institution, as it affects the expected
returns to investments accrued to those who actually
undertake them (Besley 1995). In sparsely populated areas
of Sub-Saharan Africa and islands in the South Pacific, land
is often owned and controlled by the community where
individual land rights are severely restricted and benefits
are shared widely among members of extended families
(Johnson 1972). If such communal ownership of land prevails
and persists, investment incentives are likely to be weak
and thus investments necessary for the intensification of
farming systems may not be made (Besley 1995; Johnson
1972). Then, the extensive and natural resource-using
farming systems may continue to be practiced, contrary to
the Boserupian hypothesis.

Hayami and Ruttan (1985) argued that not only technologies

but also institutions change in order to save increasingly
scarce resources. This would imply in our context that land
tenure institutions change toward individual ownership, so
as to provide appropriate investment incentives to conserve
natural resources. Consistent with the induced innovation
thesis, a theory of property rights institution developed by
Demsetz (1967) and Alchian and Demsetz (1973) asserted,
based on the historical experience of hunting communities
in Canada, that property rights institutions evolve from open
access to private ownership when natural resources become
scarce. In many parts of Sub-Saharan Africa, it is known that
the system of communal property rights on cultivated
agricultural fields has been considerably individualized
(Bruce and Migot-Adholla 1993). Yet, no systematic research
has been made as to the effect of population pressure on
land tenure or property rights institutions and the effect of
possible changes in land tenure institutions on the
investment in land improvement towards the intensification
of farming systems and the preservation of natural
resources.

Based on the recently completed project concerning land

tenure and the management of land and trees in Asia and
Africa (Otsuka and Place 2001), this paper attempts to
identify the process by which population pressure leads to
the individualization of land rights and its consequences on
the management of land and trees. Particular focus will be
placed on the development of agroforestry systems growing
commercial trees, such as cocoa, coffee, cinnamon, and
rubber, which are becoming important farming systems in
agriculturally marginal areas, where people are particularly
poor and natural forests have degraded rapidly (Otsuka
2000).2

The conceptual framework is discussed in the next section,

which is followed by the examination of the results of case
studies on the management of trees and cropland. Policy
implications of this study are discussed in the final section.

The views expressed in this paper are the views of

the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views
or policies of the Asian Development Bank Institute
(ADBI), the Asian Development Bank (ADB), its Board
of Directors, or the governments they represent.
ADBI does not guarantee the accuracy of the data
included in this paper and accepts no responsibility
for any consequences of their use. Terminology used
may not necessarily be consistent with ADB official
terms..
Population, Land Use, and the
Environment
As noted earlier in the course, agriculture employs a high proportion of people in the
Third World. In this section, we will look at population growth and agricultural
development, with a particular emphasis on how population growth results in changes in
land use and in utilization of the natural resource base.

The discussion begins with a brief look at the arguments of Boserup concerning induced
technological change in agriculture, and then focuses on Rosenzweig and Binswanger's
broader analysis of the effects of population growth on production relations in agriculture.
We'll conclude with an examination of two case studies: one from Zaire and the other
from Rwanda.

Population growth and production relations

in agriculture: Boserup and beyond
In considering how population growth influences agricultural development,
we begin by noting two points. First, adding more workers to a fixed
amount of agricultural land will, other things being equal, result in a
diminishing marginal product of labor (law of diminishing marginal
returns). Second, it is unlikely that other things will remain equal (i.e.,
unchanged).

More specifically, in our review of the National Research Council's 1986

report on population growth and economic development in the Third World,
we noted that counter to the various arguments that have been made
suggesting that there will be adverse effects of population growth, Ester
Boserup has stressed the notion that there will be positive effects as well.
Most notable in this regard is her view that population pressure on the land
will stimulate the search for and adoption of new technologies of
production. In essence, then, population growth induces technological
change, resulting in higher productivity of agricultural workers.
Boserup's Table 3.2 (overhead presented in class) shows various food
supply systems, arrayed in order of the frequency of cropping (i.e., the
intensity of land use). The shift from long-fallow to short-fallow systems
and then to annual cropping and multicropping is typically associated not
only with more intensive land use, but also with increasing population
density and technological sophistication in agricultural production.

Rosenzweig et al., in the context of a broad-ranging assessment of

production relations in agriculture, provide a concise summary of Boserup's
arguments regarding the effects of population growth on agriculture,
identifying eight principal consequences:

1. reduced fallow periods;

2. increased investment in land;

3. shift from hand-hoe cultivation to animal traction;

4. adoption of soil fertility maintenance via manuring;

5. reduced average cost of infrastructure;

6. encourages more specialization in production activities;

7. induces a change from general to specific land rights; and

8. reduced per capita availability of common property resources such as

forest, bush, and/or grass fallows and communal pastures.

The first four of these effects represent efforts to increase land productivity
and to offset the increased labor requirements stemming from more
intensive cultivation. The fifth and sixth effects are due to economies of
scale resulting from increased population density. The seventh effect
generates incentives to undertake investments in specific plots of land in
order to intensify production and preserve soil fertility. The eighth effect
raises the possibility of overutilization of common property resources (the
"tragedy of the commons").
Not only the intensity of agricultural production, but numerous other aspects
of production relations in agriculture are affected by population growth and
increased population density. This is best illustrated by Rosenzweig et al.'s
Table 4.1 (overhead presented in class), which shows how markets for land
and labor, credit markets, and various other aspects of production relations
in agriculture are likely to vary between land-abundant settings and land-
scarce economies.
Boserup and Bandundu: Case study #1
The Boserup induced-technological-change hypothesis, in which there is a
positive feedback from population growth and increased population density
to agricultural development, provides a basis for some optimism. My paper
on "Population Growth, Changing Agricultural Practices, and
Environmental Degradation in Zaire" presents a distinctly more pessimistic
view.

The paper focuses on the province of Bandundu, immediately to the east of

Kinshasa. The population density in this predominantly rural province is
rather low (about 19 per square kilometer), and historically food production
has been via a long-fallow system of slash-and-burn agriculture.

Although there has been outmigration from Bandundu to Kinshasa, and

migration of rural residents to the province's urban areas, the rural
population has continued to grow. As the population has increased, more
and more land has come under cultivation. Often this has been more
marginal land, in terms of its capacity to produce food. This process, called
land extensification, in conjunction with growth in the demand for wood as
fuel, has contributed to deforestation.

Agricultural intensification, in the form of shortening of fallow periods, has

also been evident in Bandundu during the past 15-20 years. This
intensification was encouraged not only by population growth within the
province, but also by improved access to the Kinshasa market dating back to
the late 1970s when a major paved road linking the province to the capital
was completed.

Thus, while some elements of the Boserup scenario are present in

Bandundu, a number of others are not. Indeed, work by Louise Fresco
documents that there have been additional changes in agricultural practices
designed to economize on labor (e.g., less care in field preparation) that
have had the impact of hastening soil erosion and loss of soil fertility.

There is potential for serious environmental degradation. The gradual

destruction of forest and its replacement by open savanna reduces soil
fertility. Present practices entail what Dasgupta referred to as "mining" of
the soil (cf., his suggestion to use NNP, or Net National Product, which
would differ from GNP by taking into account the effects of changes in the
natural resource base on future consumption possibilities).

Overall, then, the situation in Bandundu appears to correspond to that

described by Lele and Stone in their examination of evidence from six
countries in sub-Saharan Africa: "the environmental damage from the
reduction of bush fallow, the more intensive use of land without
supplementary biological and chemical inputs, and the depletion of forestry
resources complicates the transition from low to more densely populated
areas as originally envisaged in the Boserup hypothesis."

The concern for the longer run, then, is that the increases in food production
that have been realized via intensification will not be sustainable over the
long haul. That is, it may not be possible to maintain agricultural yields.

Technology, in the form of improved inputs (high-yielding seeds, fertilizers,

pesticides) does exist that would allow maintenance of yields and even
further increases in food production. However, the debilitated state of
Zaire's economy and transportation infrastructure means that use of
improved inputs is not economically feasible. The long-term prospects,
then, are not at all appealing.

Demographic pressure in Rwanda: Case study #2

John May's short paper on "Demographic Pressure and Population Policies in
Rwanda, 1962-1994" highlights the fact that Rwanda's economic problems are
like those faced by other countries in sub-Saharan Africa, yet at the same time
more extreme. In large part this is a consequence of the fact that the population
density of 292 inhabitants per square kilometer means that Rwanda's density is
more than 12 times as high as that for all of sub-Saharan Africa.

Fertility has been very high in Rwanda, reaching a total fertility rate of 8.5 and
higher in the late 1970s and early 1980s (see May's Table 2). There is some
evidence of a decline during the 1990s, but fertility was still above 6 as of
1992. This high fertility, in conjunction with declining mortality, has resulted
in substantial population growth (see his Figure 1).

As shown by May's Table 3, this rapid population growth has been

accompanied by distinct changes in land use. More land is being devoted to
crop production, while less has been available for pastures and fallow. As with
the Bandundu case study, these changes in land use raise serious questions
about environmental degradation and sustainability of food crop production
(cf., impact on mountain gorillas).

May reviews the various population policies that have been attempted over the
past 40 years, beginning with efforts by Belgium during the colonial period to
encourage emigration to neighboring countries such as Zaire. The closing of
borders after independence in the early 1960s ended this policy.

A second resettlement policy, "paysannats," was attempted in 1963, and

entailed resettling people to areas with land available for cultivation. This was
discontinued after only a short period because demand for participation
exceeded the available land.

Policy aimed directly at slowing demographic growth was initiated only in

1981, when the government launched a national family planning program.
Although slow in getting started, this program appears to have contributed
(along with delays in marriages due to lack of land) to the modest declines in
fertility observed by the early 1990s. However, as mentioned earlier,
population growth remained high.
As May notes, population policies were slow to be developed and slow to be
implemented, in part because they often were adopted at the insistence of
foreign donors rather than reflecting priorities of national leaders.

Attention in Rwanda in the past few years has been focused on the political
problems associated with ethnic group rivalries. However, as May argues,
once those problems are in the past, "the country will still be confronted with
the same problems as before: cramped surface area, lack of natural resources,
very high population density, and rapid population growth... [A] reduction in
fertility will be necessary to significantly reduce growth rates and restore the
promise of a better tomorrow."

Whether or not public policy will be up to this challenge and if individual

citizens will respond remains to be seen.