Volume 2 No.

5, MAY 2011 ISSN 2079-8407

Journal of Emerging Trends in Computing and Information Sciences

©2010-11 CIS Journal. All rights reserved.

http://www.cisjournal.org

Markovian Method of Finding the Availability of Repairable Systems

M. Y. Ashkar
Department of Mathematics,
University of Bahrain, PO Box 32038,
Kingdom of Bahrain.
myashkar@hotmail.com

ABSTRACT
In this paper the transition probability matrix is used to tackle the problem of the availability of repairable systems. The
method is applicable to a system governed by a two-parameter distribution for the life-time and repair-time. It will be
concentrated on the Weibull and Gamma distributions without and/or with singularities. The method is involving matrices
multiplication of massive size. For this purpose an arithmetic method is applied to carry out this multiplication that, in turn,
represents the availability of a repairable system.

Keywords: Point of Availability, Markovian Method, Transition Matrix

1. INTRODUCTION
The Availability or point-availability term is
insufficient to know about how many times a device has
been replaced or repaired upon failure. However we are
interested in the condition of such item, working or failure
so it is under repair. In fact the device may be replaced
on daily base or more than once a day or it could have
never been replaced at all. Other measurement is still
important and needed, such as the device's reliability. So
the relationship between reliability, maintainability and/or
availability is very strong and important, Ascher [1],
Ashkar [2], Barlow [3], Kapur [8] and Leemis [15].
For a repairable system, the life-time cycle can be
described by a sequence of up and down states, i.e.
working and under repair. So the system operates until it
fails, then it is repaired (or replaced, if its replacement cost
less and save more time) and is returned to its original
operating state, this process will continue alternating
between these two states for sufficient time and this
they are "as good as new" hence the name 'renewal' is
obtained, Kijima [12], [13], Elsayed [6] and Leemis [15].
The availability, as a definition, is somewhat
flexible and is largely based on what types of down-times,
or under repair, one chooses to consider in the analysis.
There are number of different classifications of
availability, such as, Instantaneous (or Point) Availability,
Average up-time Availability and Steady State
(Asymptotic) Availability Kececioglu [10], [11].
The instantaneous availability, or point
availability, is defined as the probability that a system will
be in operation at any random time, t. This is very similar
to the reliability function where it gives a probability that a
system will function at the given time, t. Unlike reliability,
the instantaneous availability measure incorporates
maintainability information. At any given time, t, the
system will be operational if the item is either functioning
properly from 0 to t with probability R(t)=1-F(t), or it is
functioning properly since the last repair at time u, 0 < u <
t

process is called a renewal process. It is a sequence of

independent random variables, Ashkar [2] and Cox [4]. In
t, with probability ∫ R(t − u )m(u )du , where
0
m(u) is

this case, the random variables are the time-to-failure and
the time-to-repair. Each time a device fails and is repaired,
a renewal is said to have occurred. This type of renewal
process is known as an Alternating Renewal Process
because the state of the device alternates between a
functioning (up-state) and under repair (down-state), Cox
[4]. This process is illustrated as shown in figure1
Ashkar[2].
Figure 1 illustrates the nature of alternating of a system
between up-time (operating) and down-time (under repair)
over the time.
The assumptions in the renewal theory is that the
failure items are replaced or repaired with new ones so
the renewal density function of the system Elsayed [6],
Kececioglu [10]. Hence, the point availability is given as
the summation of these two probabilities,
t
i.e. A(t ) = R (t ) + ∫ R(t − u )m(u )du , Cox [4].
0
The above sum of probabilities represents
Volterra's integral equation of the second kind. It can be
solved numerically to find A(t), and it can be applied in
systems without singularities Fox [7].
Ashkar [2] has shown that this estimation of point
availability is possible through a mixture distribution and
complicated calculation .However, the used method is
limited to non singular two-parameter distributions.
In this paper, the method used is invented to cope
with a very wide class of distributions regardless of their
scale and position parameters. It could be applied to
Gamma, Weibull, Lognormal and most of two parameters
distributions. Also, it can be used to find the point
availability of systems of Bath-tub shaped hazard rate. But
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 Volume 2 No.5, MAY 2011 ISSN 2079-8407
Journal of Emerging Trends in Computing and Information Sciences

©2010-11 CIS Journal. All rights reserved.

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here, the method will be applied strictly to systems of the mortality near the point x. Meanwhile, the term
Weibull and Gamma distribution. In this article, a direct 1 − h( x, x + δx) is the probability of survival from x to
method is illustrated in section 2. The transition
probability matrix is obtained in section 3. Finally point
( x + δx) .
availabilities of systems of weibull and gamma are The method is applicable to both discrete and
obtained in section 4 and 5. continuous distributions if it can be approximated by
discrete ones.
2. THE DIRECT METHOD In the continuous case the subdivision between
consecutive steps is made very small and is 0.01 in our
This method, in principle, finds out the point calculations. So the continuous distribution can be
availability of the system directly from the hazard approximated by a discrete one. All we need to deal with
such a problem is to find the elements of the transition
function. We found that the hazard function h( x, x + δx) matrix shown in figure 2. These elements are obtained
can be expressed with reference to the definition of the merely from the hazard function.
conditional probability as
h( x, x + δx) = Pr{x < X ≤ x + δx X > x} 3. THE TRANSITION MATRIX
The nature of state transition matrix of size
Pr{x < X ≤ x + δx, X > x}
= [(2n+2)x(2n+2)] is shown in figure 2. The transition
P( X > x) matrix is divided into four regions to allow transition
F ( x + δx) − F ( x) between up states and down states. Each of the up times
= and the down times is specified with n+l states. This is to
1 − F ( x) cover the range of the study, and n is large enough to
R( x) − R( x + δx) R( x + δx) fulfill the requirements of the problem.
(1) = = 1− We made the transition matrix finite by
R( x) R( x) truncating the life time and the repair time distributions
suitably at a very large n to make it manageable. This can
The above formula (1) gives the failure be done by making the hazard rate at the state n equal to
probability function for any life distribution function. unity. The same thing is true for the corresponding
Consider the limit Z(x), which may exist and be finite. If it functions for the down time. For the up time, the hazard
does exist, then function h( x, x + δx) will be represented by p(x). The
survival rate will be represented by l-p(x). The same thing
1 R ( x) − R ( x + δx) f ( x)
Z ( x) = lim = (2) is true for the down time but with q(x) and l-q(x) instead.
δx →0 R( x) δx R( x) For instance, the term 1 − p 23 , denotes the probability of
the system surviving from state i=2 to the state i=3. If the
The above Z(x) is called the hazard rate function system fails to survive at the state i=2 then it goes, instead,
and then to the down state region with probability p 23 . From up

R( x) − R( x + δx) R( x + δx)
= 1− ≅ Z ( x)δ ( x) (3)
R( x) R( x)
The term Z ( x)δx is approximately the failure
probability in the interval ( x, x + δx) .The
quantity Z ( x)δx is used to approximate, where it is
appropriate, the failure as well as the repair time
distributions. When there are singularities, the original
formula (1) is used; otherwise (2) will be used.
However, it must be mentioned that the hazard function
depends, where it is an up time, on the current age of the
component; and on how long it has been down, if it is a
down time. So we need only to take account of the age of the
system to see what will happen next. Thus, if we use the
current age as a state, the system is Markovian and,
therefore, we can describe it by an initial state vector and a
transition matrix, Ross [19].
It is clear that the hazard function h( x, x + δx) can be
calculated from R(x). The term h( x, x + δx) measures
state at t=0, the system can go either to state i=l with
probability ( 1 − p 01 ) staying still in an up state, or fails
and goes to the down state i=l with probability p 01 . A
system may stay in the up state and go to states i=2, 3, ..
,n-l with probabilities
(1 − p12 ), (1 − p 23 ),........., (1 − p n −1,n ) without failure.
If the system has survived this long, it will surely
be transferred into the down state. So the system will fail
according to its hazard function. By then the system will
be transferred to the down state, where it can go through
similar steps. So we can describe the method as the
following: The transition matrix is divided into four
regions. In a clockwise order, the first region is the top
left. A system in the up position starts within the first
region. Upon failure it goes to the second region where it
can be transferred to the third region where the system is
under repair and stays there for a certain time. By
repairing the system it will be transferred to region four
where it can be transferred to the first region to start again.
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©2010-11 CIS Journal. All rights reserved.

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This circulation would continue as long as the system is in until the system reaches an asymptotic point availability
use. which, as a check, should be very close to the theoretical
one. At every state time the initial row vector will contain
Up-Time Down-Time (2n+2) elements (probabilities). These elements should
sum up to unity. These elements are probability values. A
set of n+1 elements of these refer to up state, let us denote
i = ( n .... 4 3 2 1 0 0 1 2 3 4 n) it by (Ui), The other n+1 refer to down state, let us denote
n +1

n 0 ... 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 .... 0 it by (Di). The point availability, simply is ∑U

i =1
i and the

n − 1 1 − pn−1,n ... 0 0 0 0 0 pn−1,n 0 0 0 0 ... 0 2n+2

...... ... .... ...... ... point of non-availability is ∑D

n+2
i where
0 ... 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ... 0 n +1 2n+2
2 0 ... 1 − p23 p23 0 0 0 0 ... 0 ∑U i +
i =1
∑D
n+2
i =1
1 0 ... 0 1 − p12 p12 0 0 0 0 ... 0
0 0 ... 0 0 1 − p01 0 p01 0 0 0 0 ...
3.2 Problem of a very large matrix
... ... . multiplication
0 0 ... 0 0 0 0 q0,1 0 1 − q01 0 0 0 ... 0
1 0 0 0 0 0 q1,2 0 0 1 − q12 0 0 ... 0 The idea of finding the point availability looks
very simple especially when the size of the transition
2 0 ... 0 0 0 0 q2 , 3 0 0 0 1 − q23 0 ... 0 matrix is reasonably small. More formally, let us call the
0 ... 0 0 0 0 0 0 ... 0 transition matrix TM[(2n+2)x(2n+2)] and the current row
vector as AV(i)[[1]x(2n+2)]. At the commencement
0 ... .. ... 0
AV(0)(2n+2) contains the point availability at t=0 where
n −1 0 ... 0 0 0 0 qn−1,n 0 0 0 0 0 ... 1 − qn−1,n PA(0)=1. The process to calculate AV(i) can be found as
n 0 ... 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 ... 0 the following :
Figure2 illustrate the nature of the Transition
TM ( xi )
Matrix of size (2n+2)x( 2n+2)Between states AV (i)[1 × (2n + 2)] × [(2n + 2) × (2n + 2)] = AV (i + 1)[1 × (2n + 2)] i = 0,1.2,...,

Up-Time
n .... 4 3 2 1
AV (0) = ( 0 .... 0 0 0 1 0 0
Figure 3 illustrates the (2n+2) initial availability row vector
3.1 Initial availability and availability row
vector
A new system is put into service starts at t=0. The
availability at this point state is "One". And non-
availability is "Zero". Thus the initial vector is the first
essential in calculating the availability at any state time.
Given the probability of being up or under repair as
illustrated in the transition matrix, we can deduce the point
availability, or the vector's availability for the next point.
This row vector will replace the initial one for the next
step. This can be done by multiplying the vector by the
transition matrix. The resultant row vector will show not
only the probability the system is up or down, but the
probabilities of the different times that it has been up or
down. Also it will be used again as the initial availability
row vector for the next step.
To obtain the next point availability, we repeat
the foregoing process. Every repeated multiplication gives
the instant point availability. This process will be repeated
Down-Time
Very small steps are used (such as width is
0 0 1 2 3 4 n δt=0.01). Yet our aim is to study the system availability up
0 0 0 0 0) to t=20. This makes the matrix TM of size 4002x4002, for
which a huge computer memory is required. And more
memory needed when the system availability is studied up
to t=50 or more.
It is notable, however, that most the elements of TM are
zeros. We will take advantage of this phenomenon and
calculate the availability vector with an arithmetical
method which condenses the matrix multiplication
method.
More formally, let us denote the elements of AV(i) by
I.e. AV(i) now is ( a1 a2 a3 . . . an+1 an+2 . . . a2n+1 a2n+2 )
And the elements of the resultant availability vector, AV(i)
appears as
( c1 c2 c3 . . . cn+1 cn+2 . . . c2n+1 c2n+2 )
This ci's, i=1,2,3,… are calculated as the following;
c1 = a2(1-pn-1,n )
c2= a3(1-pn-2,n-1)
c3= a4(1-pn-3,n+2)

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………………… theory. It includes monotone increasing, monotone

………………… decreasing and constant hazard rates. It is noted that the
cn =an+1 (1-p01 ) Weibull distribution has many different algebraic forms
cn+1 = an+2 q01 + an+3 q12+ an+4 q23 + … + a2n+2 qn-1,n + depending on the way in which the parameters are defined.
a2n+2 Although all forms are essentially the same in regard to
cn+2 = a1 + a2 Pn-1,n+ a3 Pn-2,n-1 + a4 Pn-3,n-2+ … + an the important distributional properties, there is no
generally accepted algebraic form for the Weibull
P12 + an+1 P01
distribution. The probability density function, the
cn+3 =an+2 (1-q01 ) cumulative distribution and the reliability functions of the
cn+4 =an+3 (1-q12 ) Weibull family are given respectively.
………………..
k
………………. −( ) x m +1
f ( x) = kx e m m +1
m > −1, k > 0, x ≥ 0 (7)
c2n+2 =a2n+1 (1-qn-1,n ). (4)
k
−( ) x m +1
Having obtained all the elements of the F ( x) = 1 − e m +1
m > −1, k > 0, x ≥ 0 (8)
availability vector, we now proceed to find the point
availability and the non-availability of the system at the k
−( ) x m +1
point i which are given, respectively, as R( x) = e m +1
m > −1, k > 0, x ≥ 0 (9)

n +1
PA(i ) = ∑ c j The mean and the variance of Weibllll
j =1 (5) distribution are given respectively as
−1
k m+2 (10)
2n+2 E( X ) = ( ) m +1 Γ ( )
m +1 m +1
NPA(i ) = ∑c
j =n+2
j (6)
−2
m+3 m+2 k
Var ( X ) = [( ) − Γ2 ( )] × ( ) m +1 (11)
By getting the point availability from (5), we m +1 m +1 m +1
proceed to the next point. This can be done by repeating
the same procedure after replacing aj by cj .The method where Γ(*) is the complete Gamma function , i.e.
and its operation are illustrated in figure 4. ∞
Γ(α ) = ∫ x α −1e − x dx . For the purpose of the study we
0
define the parameters m and k in order that each member of
the family has mean equal to unity. This can be found by
putting E(X)=1 in (10) and solving the resulting equation
for the given values of m. In table 1 below, we display the
values of m and its corresponding values of k that are used
in our calculation.

Table 1 Weibull parameters

m k Mean
-0.75 0.5533414 1.0
Figure 4 flow-chart illustrates the structure of Arithmetical
calculation of PA -0.50 0.7071068 1.0
-0.25 0.8548628 1.0
The time interval between consecutive points is 0.0 1.0000000 1.0
δt=0.01 the calculation will continue until the system
reaches the asymptotic state. This method accepts any 1.0 1.5707064 1.0
distribution for the up-time and/or down-time and gives 2.0 2.1362189 1.0
results similar to those distributions if studied using the 3.0 2.6998792 1.0
integral equation method. Weibull and Gamma
4.0 3.2627404 1.0
distributions have been treated by this technique.
4. WEIBULL DISTRIBUTION The reliability function will play the main role in
this method. Using the reliability function of a Weibull
The Weibull distribution was introduced by W. distribution (9), the hazard function can be given, by using
Weibull [21]. Its use in reliability theory was discussed by the formula (1) as
Weibull [22]. The distribution is widely used in reliability
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k
−( )( x +δx ) m +1
m +1
e
h( x, x + δx) = 1 − k
(12) The probability density function, the cumulative
−( ) x m +1 density function and the reliability function are given
m +1
e respectively by

The hazard function (12) will be used for given −

x
1
values of m and k which make the MTTF and the MTTR f ( x) = α
x α −1e β (18)
as required. Γ(α ) β
We now obtain the elements of the transition x −
s
1
∫
α −1 β
matrix as illustrated in figure 2. This matrix consists F ( x) = s e ds (19)
merely of those values obtained from the hazard function 0 Γ(α ) β α
(12). We will call the probability of up-time (l-pij) for the x
1 −
s

system to survive and pij for the system to fail. The (l-qij) R( x) = 1 − ∫ s α −1e β ds (20)
are corresponding probabilities for down-time. (l-qij) 0 Γ(α ) β α

means that the system is still under repair qij means that
the system goes from being under repair to the up-state, Thus the hazard function will be evaluated from
and in all cases j=i+1. After any point time, t=i, the system (1) by using the reliability function formula (20), which is,
is only in one position, either in the up-state with itself, evaluated using numerical integration. Thus
probability (1-pij ), or down-state with probability pij .At
any point time the system is in one well defined state. We R( x + δx)
come now to finalize the results of the point-availability of h( x, x + δx) = 1 − (21)
R( x)
a system of Weibull. Once the hazard function is essential
to the aim of the calculation, two hazard functions of the
form (12) will be stated. One is for the up-time and the It is clear from (20) and (21) that the calculation
other for the down-time. It is assumed that the mean time of the cumulative distribution function involves the
to failure and the mean time to repair are identical and integration of the singular integrand. However, the
equal to unity, i.e Gamma distribution is defined to have mean unity, this
would make the density function of the Gamma
−1 distribution written as a function of only one parameter α .
k m+2
MTTF = MTTR = ( ) m +1 Γ( ) =1 (13) Since the mean = αβ =1 then β = 1 / α and (18) can be
m +1 m +1
rewritten as
Where k and m are the parameters of Weibull
m+2 α α α −1 −αx
distribution and Γ( ) is the complete gamma f ( x) = x e (22)
m +1 Γ(α )
function. For every given value of m we can define only
one value of k. This can be found as
And in a similar manner (19) can be expressed in
(23). This step is taken to make the Gamma calculations
m + 2 m +1
K (1) = (m + 1){Γ( )} (14) comparable with the Weibull calculations later on.
m +1
1 α α α −1 −αs
lim PA(t ) = = 0.8
x

∫
(15) F ( x) = (23)
t →∞ 1 + 14 Γ(α )
s e ds
0

It means that the point-availability of the system The point availability of a system in which the
on the long run is 0.8, and mild oscillations can be caused. failure time, and the repair time are distributed each with
The results are shown in figure 6 Gamma distribution is our main interest. The method
The parameter k(l) of MTTF=l is defined from which was elaborated previously will be applied. Similar
the formula (14), while the parameter k(1/4) where procedures to those with the Weibull are carried out. The
MTTR=1/4 of the repair time can be given as: many numbers involved in the numerical results are
converted into graphs which are shown in figure 7. It can
−1
k be noted from these graphs, a mild oscillation occurs and
MTTR = ( ) m +1 Γ( mm++12 ) = 1 / 4, (16)
m +1 then settles down to the asymptotic position, during a
relatively short time of operation. Several values of the
m +1 parameter are considered. These values are α =0.25,
 m+2 
K (1 / 4) = (m + 1)4Γ( ) (17) 0.50, 0.75, 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 5.0, 6.0. The values of
 m +1  Γ(α ) which are widely tabulated are used in the
calculation. Note that, since failures and repairs are
5. GAMMA DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION identically distributed, the asymptotic result gives that;
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MTTF
lim PA(t ) = = 0.5 (24)
t →∞ MTTF + MTTR

To make further generalization of failures and

repairs of Gamma, we assume that β = 1 in (18), (19)
and (20) then the Gamma distribution can be expressed in
an easy way. The mean of the distribution will be a
function of its shape parameter α , the point availability of
the system can be considered in a similar way. In the
following lines several cases of the Gamma distribution
are considered to show the system behavior. In all cases
the parameter β = 1 is taken for the up-time and the down
time. Different α 1 , α 2 Are used and they are illustrated
in the table 2 below.

Table 2 illustrates the different values of

parameters α 1 , α 2 for the up-time and down
time together with its asymptotic results
Up-time Down- Asympt Down- Asymptotic Down-Asymptoti
Mean= time tic time results time results
α1 Mean= results Mean= Mean=
α2 α2 α2
0.25 0.5 0.3333 1.0 0.200 2.0 0.111
0.50 0.5 0.5000 1.0 0.333 2.0 0.200
0.75 0.5 0.6000 1.0 0.429 2.0 0.273
1.00 0.5 0.6667 1.0 0.5.00 2.0 0.333
2.00 0.5 0.8000 1.0 0.667 2.0 0.500
3.00 0.5 0.8571 1.0 0.750 2.0 0.600
4.00 0.5 0.8889 1.0 0.800 2.0 0.667
5.00 0.5 0.9091 1.0 0.8.33 2.0 0.715

In table 2 the asymptotic values of the point

availability are shown. More details about the point-
availability which are specified in table 2 can be obtained
by considering figure 8.The point-availability values for
small values of t have been calculated. Note that the
asymptotic values are indicated as in table 2 for each case.

6. CONCLUSIONS
At the end it can be concluded that the method
looks comprehensive, simple and easy to use. It can be
used despite the nature of the used distribution, with and
without singularities. Beside, it has wide range of use.
The numerical results obtained in this article are turned
into graphs shown in figures 5,6,7 and 8. The behaviors of
point availability of the considered systems look natural in
term of its oscillation. The only difficulty encountered is Figure 5 shows point availability of a system of Weibull
that of finding the transition matrix and carrying out the distribution where MTTF= MTTR = 1 Where m=0.25, 0.50,
0.75,1, 2,3 ,4 ,5 , 6 and 7.
multiplication. Otherwise it is very efficient and reliable
for those systems of two-parameter distribution.

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Journal of Emerging Trends in Computing and Information Sciences

©2010-11 CIS Journal. All rights reserved.

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Figure 7 shows group of the point availability of a system of

Gamma distribution where MTTF= MTTR with mean
Equal unity Where m=0.25, 0.50, 0.75,1, 2,3 ,4 ,5 , 6 and 7

Figure 8 shows point availability of a system of

Figure 6 shows the point availability of a system of Weibull
Gamma distribution given in table 2 where
distribution where MTTF= 1, MTTR = 0.25 Where m=0.25,
0.50, 0.75,1, 2,3 ,4 ,5 , 6 and 7 β=1. α=2 ---,β=1. α=2 –-–-–- , β=1. α=2 ────
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©2010-11 CIS Journal. All rights reserved.
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