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INTRODUCTION
Excavation progress in any drill & blast tunnel is dependent on a number of interrelated
parameters, some of which have a greater impact on progress than others, some of which are
variable (e.g. charge weight) and some which are not (e.g. surrounding geology), but all of
which combine to define the eventual rates of advance. Measures were put into place at the
Shatin Heights Tunnels to review some of these factors, with those identified as having the
greatest impact, and those with the greatest scope for improvement of progress being afforded
the closest attention during construction. One of the issues reviewed was propagation
equations for and the estimation of the magnitude of blast wave velocities (and amplitudes) at
any one sensitive receiver.
The main focus of this paper is the accuracy of prediction of the magnitude of blast wave
velocities that will arrive at a sensitive receiver, due to a blast using a known charge weight
per delay, at a known radial distance from that receiver. What is universally accepted is that
the attenuation constants should be derived as a site specific exercise as discussed by New
(1986), Dowding (1996), Hustrulid (1999) and Siskind (2002).
__________________________________________________________________________________________
1
Resident Engineer (Geotechnical), Maunsell Consultants Asia Ltd
2
Assistant Resident Engineer (Geotechnical), Maunsell Consultants Asia Ltd
Using statistical analyses, this paper reviews :
(a) whether the blast data from this site follows a lognormal distribution and how well the
residuals follow the assumption of normality i.e. the goodness of fit. Normality is the
fundamental basis for prediction of the blast constants in the blast equation (Dowding
1996; Pegden et al. 2005).
(b) whether a relevant site specific blasting vibration attenuation relationship exists that
more closely models the attenuation of seismic blast waves at various sections along
this site, than that derived using the most-often used “square-root” scaling law and
whether there are identifiable locations or ground conditions where it is more
appropriate to use.
(c) the sensitivities of recorded blast vibrations to:
(i) surface wave transmission at the portals.
(ii) close-in blasts.
(iii) transmission medium.
(iv) explosive type: emulsion (vs. cartridge) explosive.
(v) confinement as defined by full face or enlargement blasts.
(vi) powder factor (PF).
A review of the USBM RI8507 Report (Siskind et al. 1980) indicates the USBM Report
conclusions were based largely on ground vibrations from surface coal mine and quarry
blasts. The GEO Mines Division blast attenuation formula is itself developed from a data set
of 520 combined blasts including quarrying, tunnelling, trench excavation, footing excavation
and submarine blasting, the latter blast type for which industry practice is to use a cube root
scaling law almost exclusively. This paper concentrates on blast attenuation solely from the
current tunnel project based on a total data set of 1132 blasts, resulting in excess of 3580
recorded data points, and attempts to identify which, if any, specific scaling law is the most
applicable along the tunnel alignment.
PPV = K * (R / W a ) b, (Eq 1)
where
PPV = peak particle velocity,
K = constant (intercept),
b = slope of regression line
a = charge weight exponent (0.5 for square-root scaling),
R = radial distance from the Blast Source and
W = charge weight per delay.
The term (R/W a) is also referred to as the scaled distance (SD). The term “per delay”
assumes an 8ms delay (industry standard practice for tunnel blasts) in this tunnel. In practice,
there may still be cancellation, or reinforcement (overlap) of wave forms. Constants K and b
in Eq. 1 above are normally derived on a site-specific basis.
Some authors also noted cube root scaling is used for vibration prediction only in the
extreme near field (Lucca 2003; Yang et al. 2000). Further details specific to cube root
scaling and case-histories where best-fit analyses resulted in cube-root scaling are discussed
in NAVFAC (1986), Siskind et al. (1977), Siskind et al. (1980), New (1989), Olsen et al.
(1974), Olson et al. (1972), Lucca (2003), Bacci et al. (2002), Wu et al. (2003) and Zhou et al.
(2000). Some of the above case histories determined cube root scaling as appropriate for their
site and some did not. However, while these references indicate that square root scaling is
still by far the most often used scaling law, other laws such as cube-root scaling continue to
be checked for and used by practitioners to determine the applicability of attenuation results
in various ground conditions.
The fundamental assumption behind the applicability of the blast vibration attenuation
equation is that the data follows a lognormal distribution (Dowding 1996). In order to test
how well the Shatin Heights data fits this assumption, analysis of the “Goodness of Fit” of the
regressed distribution, in a similar fashion to Pegden et al. (2005), was performed by
conducting univariate normality tests on the residuals of the data and the results plotted
against number of blasts (or results) used in the analysis. By plotting the data points in
conjunction with tunnel chainage, it is possible to visually determine the number of data
points required for normality and to also determine when the attenuation characteristics of the
data set from some distance down the tunnel no longer matches the initial data. A series of
normality tests has been carried out on several selected data sets, as described below.
SENSITIVITY ANALYSES
Residual Plots
Hunt et al. (2003) concluded that the log/log approach to regression equation
determination does not actually produce the best fitting power law equations connecting PPV,
distance and charge weight. Hunt et al. (2003) also noted that the construction of the 84%
and 95% confidence limits assumes not only normality of the log(PPV) on log(SD) data, but
also normality of the distribution of the residuals i.e. the variance of the distribution from
normality.
Variation of Residuals of logPPV vs. PPV
1.0
0.8
LogPPV Residuals
0.6
0.4
(mm/s)
0.2
0.0
-0.2 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1.0
PPV mm/s
The residual plot in Figure 1 indicates both nonlinearity and heteroskedasticity over the
range of PPV’s recorded, for PPV results above and below approx. 1mm/s.
Heteroskedasticity (also commonly spelled heteroscedasticity) is the violation of the
assumption that “the variance of the distribution from which the observations of the error term
are drawn is constant” (Studenmund 1992). While Studenmund (1992) noted a number of
tests (e.g. White’s test, the Breusch-Pagan test) can be performed to rigorously test for
heteroskedasticity, only the scatter plot is shown above, to graphically demonstrate
heteroskedastic variability. The variation in the residuals of the PPV’s recorded from the
SHT tunnel blasts, indicates that in general, the larger the PPV values (above 1mm/s), the
larger the error in the prediction of the PPV using the predictor equation of the form of Eq 1
above.
10
y = 2.084x0.195 10 y = 51.241x-0.774
PPV (mm/s)
PPV mm/s
1 1
0.1 0.1
0.01 0.1 1 10 10 100 1000
Charge Weight/delay (kg) Range (m )
Log PPV Residuals Frequency Q-Q Norm ality Plot : Log PPV Residuals
Histogram 4
25
3
20
2
15
Std. Dev
Frequency
10 0
-0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4
5 -1
-2
0
-0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 -3
Log PPV Residuals log PPV Residuals
Figure 3. Blast data (100 data points) between Ch. 1477 and 1651
The histogram in Figure 3 clearly shows data both below and above the Gaussian curve
and deviation in the tails of a Quantile-Quantile (Q-Q) normality plot is readily observable.
While visual inspection of both the distribution of the residuals and the normal probability
“Q-Q plot” in Figure 3 would likely reject the assumption of normality, surprisingly the data
“passes” all the normality tests and three out of the four skewness and kurtosis tests.
Log PPV Residuals Frequency Q-Q Norm ality Plot : Log PPV Residuals
Histogram 4
70
3
60
2
50
Std. Dev
40 1
Frequency
30 0
-0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
20 -1
10 -2
0
-3
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
.5
.4
.3
.2
.1
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
-0
-0
-0
-0
-0
-4
Log PPV Residuals log PPV Residuals
Figure 4. Blast data (367 data points) between Ch. 1477 and 1831
In comparison to Figure 3, the histogram in Figure 4 for a larger data set appears to be
more normally distributed. Visual inspection of the distribution of the residuals would likely
accept the assumption of normality, however all five normality test and all four skewness and
kurtosis tests performed on the data set actually shows the data “fail”. The results of Figures
3 and 4 agree with the conclusions reached by Pegden et al. (2005) i.e. visual inspection alone
cannot satisfy the assumption of normality.
Continuously Increasing Data Sets and “Windowed” Data Sets
Pegden et al (2005) reviewed a series of quarry blast data, continuously adding new data
to the existing data set and checking for normality at each addition of new data. Physically,
this makes sense in a quarry situation where it is likely the ratio (A/R) of the advance of the
quarry face (A) with respect to the distance (R) to surrounding sensitive receivers remains
relatively small throughout the life of the quarry. Adding data to all preceding information is
thus statistically viable as it is likely subsequently added data will not skew the original
results, provided that scaled distances to the sensitive receivers remain in approximately the
same range, and that geology does not change. The first analyses below conduct normality
tests on a continuously increasing data set, similar to Pegden et al’s (2005) approach, with
data added in a batch size as shown on the plot.
However, in the case of a tunnel, the location of sensitive receivers most affected changes
with the location of the advancing face. The advancing face and different wave propagation
paths and travel lengths through different media, mean that adding a set of vibration results
from blasts e.g. 100 m apart, picked up by different sensitive receivers, is unlikely to yield
results which are consistent. As such, a discrete “window” of a fixed data size, “moving”
along the tunnel alignment and representative of the moving face, is considered a more
appropriate method of analysing tunnel vibration data. For the analyses below, a window of a
fixed size is defined and the window “moved” along the data set in a step size (generally
smaller than the window size), with normality tests conducted at each increment.
Normality Tests
There are quite a number of Normality Tests available for checking “Goodness of Fit”,
some of which have greater power than others and some are more proficient at picking up
deviations in the tails, or in the middle of the distribution. Thode (2002), Strom and
Stansbury (2000) and Poitras (2006) give specific details of normality testing, particularly on
the appropriateness of, and power of each type of normality tests for various sample sizes.
The “Goodness of Fit” tests used on the Shatin Heights data set are the Shapiro Wilk,
Kolmogorov Smirnov (with Lilliefors correction), Anderson Darling, Jarque Bera and
D’Agostino Omnibus Tests. Note that these tests only provide statistical evidence for certain
types of "non-normality", they do not guarantee "normality".
For this reason, although one test would be adequate, the above five tests have been
selected and rather than tabulate results which show that a data set has “passed” or “failed”
the normality test(s), a value of 1 is assigned to those passing the normality test and a value of
0 to those data sets for which the null hypothesis cannot be rejected. To pass a normality test
the observed significance level, termed P value (Pval), should exceed a chosen significance
level, which for the Shatin Heights Data, was set at 0.05, i.e. Pval>0.05. For the purposes of
graphical presentation only and for ease of identification of patterns of normal distribution,
we have defined a “Normality Index” as the sum of these assigned (0 or 1) values, with 5
being the largest index value (normality likely) and 0 the smallest (normality highly unlikely).
Skewness/Kurtosis Tests
Skewness characterizes the degree of asymmetry of a distribution around its mean and
Kurtosis characterizes the relative peakedness or flatness of a distribution compared with the
normal distribution. Similar to the normality index defined above, a value of 1 is assigned to
tests “passing” the Skewness or Kurtosis tests, and for the purposes of graphical presentation
only, we define a “SkewKurt Index” as the sum of the assigned values, with 4 being the
largest index value (normality likely) and 0 the smallest (normality highly unlikely, i.e.
significant Skewness and Kurtosis). The four tests are D’Agostino Skewness, D’Agostino
Kurtosis and the Z Scores of Skewness and Kurtosis (2 tests).
Normality tests and skewness tests were performed on several data sets as shown in Table
1, however only the results of Test I, shown in Figures 5 and 6, are presented in this Paper.
Normality tests were performed on both square root scaled data and on MLR-regressed data,
using the same data set. The results include a comparison against the R-squared correlation,
commonly used to determine whether a data set should be accepted as being appropriately
valid for use in determination of charge weights for blast designs.
4
0.6
R Squared
3
0.4
2 Normality Index LR
1 R-Squared Value 0.2
0 0.0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Cum . Data Points
R Squared
0.6
3
Normality Index MLR 0.4
2
R-Squared Value MLR
1 0.2
0 0.0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Cum . Data Points
4 SkewKurt Index LR
800 -1.28
600 HKMinesDept95K%
-1.30
400 -1.32 Slope b
200 -1.34 HKMinesDeptb
0 -1.36
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Cum . Data Points
0.45
0.40
Square Root Indice=0.5
0.35 0.33 0.33
Cube Root Indice=1/3
0.30
MLR Indice
0.25
0.20
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Cum . Data Points
Figure 5f. Index “a” from MLR Analysis (0.5 implies square root scaling,
0.3 implies cube root scaling)
Window Data Set: Size = 100 & Step = 20 (Square Root SD)
6 1.0
5 0.8
Normality Index
R Squared
4
0.6
3
0.4
2
Normality Index LR
1 0.2
R-Squared Value
0 0.0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Data Point Range
4
R Squared
0.6
3
0.4
2 Normality Index MLR
1 0.2
R-Squared Value MLR
0 0.0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Data Point Range
0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Data Point Range
Slope b
Intercept K
1000
Slope b
-0.6
800 95% Intercept KMLR
-0.8
600 -1 HKMinesDept95K%
400 -1.22 -1.22 -1.2 Slope bMLR
200 -1.4
0 -1.6 HKMinesDeptb
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Data Point Range
With reference to Figures 7 to 9, the results of PPV vs. scaled distance plots for cases (a)
to (f) are discussed below:
25 25
10
0.1
y = 259.61x-1.132
1 10 100 R2 = 0.7665 1000
R/(W^0.513)
From Figure 7, square root scaling appears the most appropriate based on the limited data
set, with a=0.513 close to 0.5.
Close-in Blasts
Figure 8 shows data extracted from the data set that falls within 20 m of a blast face
within the tunnel. Outliers were identified in the full data set and have been removed for these
regression analyses, as an R-squared value of 0.7 is considered the minimum acceptable value
(Eltschlager 2001). The multi-linear regression index “a” tends toward cube root scaling
(0.382), which agrees both with Lucca (2003) and the close-in blasting equations published in
USACE (1989).
PPV vs. Charge Weight - Data less than PPV vs Charge Weight - Data less than
y = 242.14x-1.2921 20m from Blast y = 392.08x-1.464 20m from Blast (MLR)
R2 = 0.6899 R2 = 0.7025
100 100
Recorded PPV (mm/s)
1 1
1 10 100 1 10 100
Scaled Distance = R/W ^ 0.5 R/(W^0.382)
Transmission Medium
The Shatin Heights Project offered the unique opportunity to review the amplification
effects due to surface reflection and rock-soil transmission vs. rock-rock transmission, as the
same blasts were monitored with both in-borehole transducers in rock and by surface
instrumentation.
PPV vs Square Root Scaled Distance for In-Borehole and Surface Vibrograph
100
In-Borehole Vibrograph
Surf ace Vibrograph
Surf ace Trendline
10
In-Borehole Trendline
PPV (mm/s)
0.1
1 10 R / W1/2 100 1000
Figure 9 shows plotted surface vibration levels in the order of twice that of the in-borehole
results at equivalent scaled distances.
.
Explosive Type: Bulk Emulsion vs. Packaged Cartridge Emulsion explosive.
Bulk emulsion is theoretically more efficient at energy transfer than (tamped) cartridge
emulsion products (McKern et al. 2000), due to bulk emulsion providing improved coupling
between the side walls of the blasthole. In comparison, (tamped) cartridge emulsion products
often behave as decoupled charges, as energy is lost through gas expansion into the borehole
cavity following detonation. Improper tamping reduces the efficiency of the explosive and
the charge can act as a decoupled charge, actually reducing the vibration. McKern et al (2000)
noted that insufficient tamping can lead also to low fragmentation and reduced performance.
As noted by Jimeno et al. (1995) if the energy imparted to the rock is not enough to break the
rock due to too high confinement (stemming too long), or too high burden, higher vibrations
may occur. To determine if there was any difference in vibration levels due to explosive type
used, plots of vibrations due to both explosive types is shown in Figure 10, over a range of
scaled distances.
PPV vs Square Root Scaled Distance for Blasting with Emulsion and Cartridge
100
Emulsion Explosiv e
Cartridge Explosiv e
Cartridge Trendline
10 Emulsion Trendline
PPV (mm/s)
0.1
1 10 100 1000
R / W1/2
The vibration review shows a slight trend of lower PPV for bulk emulsion at (square root)
SD above 20. Between SD = 10~20, the vibration levels are slightly higher, although there is
little discernible difference between the two results. Note that a direct comparison is difficult
to make as bulk emulsion was used almost exclusively at charge weights above 2.5kg/delay,
whereas cartridge (packaged) emulsions was used below 2.5kg/delay.
Blast Confinement
Confinement was assumed, for purposes of reviewing this data set, as either the pilot, top-
heading or full face blasts, whereas unconfined was defined as bench blasting and blasting for
the enlargement where two free faces were available prior to blasting. High confinement
should theoretically increase PPV levels as noted by Li & Ng (1992), Blair & Armstrong
(2001) and the ISEE’s Blasters Handbook (1998), which noted that “if a charge is deeply
buried with no free face nearby, the rock is not displaced (although damaged around the
explosive) and more of the energy goes into seismic waves…lack of confinement has the
opposite effect”.
It was initially expected that the pilot tunnel/full face blasts would behave as confined
blasts in relation to the subsequent less confined stoping (enlargement) blasts. Surprisingly,
the results of the confined vs. unconfined blasts shown in Figure 11 indicate a trend of lower
PPV at (square root) SD above 15, but below SD = 20, the predicted PPV vibration levels
being slightly higher. While bench blasting may be considered largely unconfined, the
enlargement blasts are considered to be partially confined.
PPV vs Square Root Scaled Distance for Confined and Unconfined Blasts
100
R2 = 0.321
1
R2 = 0.5236
0.1
1 10 R / W1/2 100 1000
Figure 11. Vibration Monitoring Records for Confined and Unconfined Blasts
Powder Factor
Figure 12 shows the variation of powder factor (PF) normalised by RQD, and PPV
normalised by radial distance. Normalisation of PF by RQD was chosen as it represents
energy (PF) imparted into the rock, with poorer rock quality not requiring as high a PF for
fragmentation as stronger rock. The PPV is normalised by the absolute distance R, as the
charge weight time is indirectly included in PF. There is no discernible correlation between
the two, indicating PPV is more strongly controlled by other factors, such as absolute
distance. Note the scatter of PF used around Ch. 1700 to 1900 results from powder factors
used first for pilot headings, then back over the same chainage for enlargement blasts
PPV/Radial
1.4
1.2 Distance
Powder
0.01 1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.001 0.0
1147 1247 1347 1447 1547 1647 1747 1847 1947
Tunnel Chainage
PPV/Radial
Distance
Powder
0.01 1.0
0.5
0.001 0.0
1196 1296 1396 1496 1596 1696 1796 1896
Tunnel Chainage
The cube root scaling law, which has a strong theoretical basis, is still in common use in
checking against actual blast results and is considered an appropriate expression for
determining charge weights that maintain PPV within acceptable limits. However the above
results show that it was not always appropriate for the Shatin Heights Tunnel blasts, with the
exception of possibly close-in blasts.
The outliers in the results once again emphasise the need for proper geophone mounting.
The International Society of Explosives Engineers (ISEE) publishes “good practice”
guidelines (Eltschalger 2002).
While statistics is regularly used as a basis for any review of blasting vibration results, it
should not be used in isolation. Dowding (2004) observed that “any statistical review should
not exclude the practical issues affecting amplitudes such as geology, geometry, timing,
mounting of sensors, variable detection with distance and amplitude and the relatively
unimportant information obtained at very close distances (i.e. if the criterion is going to be
10mm/s, and never closer than 100m, the relevance of amplitudes of 100mm/s at 20m is not
great, nor is 0.3mm/s at 3000m). Statistics can never replace a careful design with accurate
consideration of timing, burden, etc. Systematic changes such as a 10% miscalculation in the
burden, differences in the propagation path and the use of pyrotechnic delays with their
inherent timing errors, all affect the results.”
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