Demographic FACTORS.......................................................................................2 Population Change.......................................................................................2 Age Structure.............................................................................................3 Ethnicity...................................................................................................6 Gender.....................................................................................................8 Migration..................................................................................................

Health Status Report 2005: Demographic Factors

DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS
Even when the specific health status of a given population cannot be measured directly, we can infer some information from its broader characteristics. By understanding the distribution of social and economic factors within populations it is possible to predict resulting levels of health and illness. Four characteristics have been shown to be excellent indicators of population health status. Age: Age is the strongest indicator of need for health services. Gender: Gender is the next most important indicator. Women have higher morbidity than men across their life-span, while men die at significantly younger ages. Ethnicity: Ethnicity has repeatedly been shown to be a strong indicator of health status. Maori and Pacific people have poorer health statistics than non-Maori people. Index of Deprivation: Socioeconomic status, incorporating variables such as income, education and unemployment, is recognised as a major indicator of health. Population Change At the 2001 census the total resident Wairarapa population was 38,502, making it the second smallest DHB, with approximately 1% of the New Zealand population. The population density in the Wairarapa is 7 per square kilometre. Only 6 out of the total 21 DHBs have a population density of 7 or less. The population declined by 0.8% over the 1996 census. The population decline was not consistent throughout the Wairarapa or within Territorial Authorities [TAs]. While overall the South Wairarapa District experienced a change of 2.1%, the Greytown area experienced an increase of 2.8%. In the Carterton District three of the four census areas experienced an increase in population while Carterton area experienced a change of 1.8%. Within the 12 census areas making up Masterton District, Opaki-Fernridge, Kopuaranga and Lansdowne all experienced increases.
Table 1: Population by Territorial Authority 1996 Census to 2001Census
1996 South Wairarapa Carterton Masterton Total 8,937 6,810 22,755 38,502 2001 8,745 6,849 22,614 38,208 Change Number -192 39 -141 -294 % -2.1 0.5 -0.6 -0.8

Source: Statistics New Zealand

Health Status Report 2005: Demographic Factors

Looking toward 2021, the Wairarapa population is projected to decline by 5% in contrast to a projected increase of 11.4% for the total New Zealand population over the same period. [Note: Table before is a calculation of the Projected population and the figures are slightly different from the actual census figures in the table above.]
Table 2: Projected Population 1996 to 2001
1996 Wairarapa New Zealand 39,358 3,732,715 2001 39,140 3,879,802 2006 39,225 4,138,718 2011 38,635 4,281,388 2016 37,925 4,415,534 2021 37,095 4,545,1938

Source: Statistics New Zealand

Figure 1 graphically represents the Wairarapa DHB population change with the NZ total. The populations have been indexed to their respective 2001 values at 100 to better illustrate the trends.
Figure 1: Population Change, Projected, 1996 to 2021
120
% change, indexed to 2001

115 110 105 100 95 90 85 1996 2001 2006

year
Wai r ar apa NZ total

2011

2016

2021

Age Structure The Health of Older People Strategy1 emphasises that older people are high users of health and disability support services, with estimated per capita expenditure increasing with advancing age. The strategy further points out that while older people may be healthier for longer in the future, the rapid growth in the number and proportion of older people, will inevitably increase pressure on health funding.

Ministry of Health (2002). Health of Older People Strategy. Health Sector Action to 2010 to Support Positive Ageing. Wellington: Ministry of Health.

Health Status Report 2005: Demographic Factors

The overall age distribution for Wairarapa shows a peak in the age group 5 to 14 and another at 25 to 44. This is the same in the New Zealand population as a whole and reflects the baby-boom echo of the 1990s, and upsurge in the number of births resulting from a combination of a trend towards later childbearing and the large 1960s cohort passing through the most popular child bearing ages. Compared to the New Zealand population, Wairarapa has a significantly higher proportion of its population aged 45 years and over.
Figure 2:
70 60 50 Population % 40 30 20 10 0 >1 1-4 5-14 15-24 25-44 45-64 65-74 75-84 85+

Wairarapa DHB and New Zealand Population Age Distribution

Wairarapa

New Zealand

The Wairarapa population profile will continue to age. Figure 2.3 shows the age distribution [projected] for 2005, 2011 and 2021. It shows the decrease in the age groups 0-64 and the increase in the age groups 64+.

Health Status Report 2005: Demographic Factors

Figure 3:

Wairarapa Projected Population Age Distribution 2001, 2011, 2021

Us ual R es ident P opulation P rojec tion Trends

12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 00 01-04 05-14 15-24 25-44 45-64 65-74 75-84 85+

Age

2005 2011 2021

The ethnic specific age distribution in the Wairarapa largely mirrors the national average, with Maori showing a heavier concentration at childhood and to a lesser extent at young adult ages. Wairarapa has high proportions of children and adolescents for Maori and Pacific Children, but significantly lower proportions of young people for all three major ethnic groups. The age structure of the non-Maori, non-pacific island population is significantly higher than its national counterparts. Care is needed in analysing the population age distribution for pacific people because of the low numbers.

Health Status Report 2005: Demographic Factors

Figure 4:
14% 12% 10% Population % 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 00

Wairarapa projected age distribution by major ethnic group 2005

01- 05- 10- 15- 20- 25- 30- 35- 40- 45- 50- 55- 60- 65- 70- 75- 80- 85+ 04 09 14 19 24 29 34 39 44 49 54 59 64 69 74 79 84 Age Maori Other Pacific

Ethnicity In the Wairarapa, there are 5,391 Maori, 615 Pacific people and 32,181 people from Other ethnic groups. Expressed in percentage terms, the distribution of ethnicity differs from national figures for Pacific people. As a proportion of the population, Wairarapa has 3.8 % less Pacific people and 3.7% more people from Other ethnic groups than New Zealand as a whole. However, Masterton has 2% more Maori than the national figure.

Health Status Report 2005: Demographic Factors

Figure 5:

Wairarapa DHB TA and New Zealand Ethnicity, 2001

Ethnicity Wairarapa vs New Zealand

100 90 80 70 Population % 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Maori Carterton Pacific Peoples Masterton South Wairarapa New Zealand Other

Source: Statistics New Zealand Community Profiles.

The Maori and Pacific population will continue to exhibit the younger age profile shown in Figure 2.4 and is projected to form an increasing proportion of the Wairarapa population. Figure 2.6 shows the projected proportion of the population by the three main ethnic groups over time.

Health Status Report 2005: Demographic Factors

Figure 6:
90% 80% 70% % of Total Population 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1996

Wairarapa DHB Projected Population by Ethnicity

2001

2006

2011 Year Maori Other

2016

2021

2026

Pacific

Gender Data analysis shows no significant differences for males and females compared to national figures. There are 51% females and 49% males in Wairarapa. The Masterton district has a slightly higher proportion of females (52%) but this is not of significant importance. The distribution of males and females by age shows a slightly greater number of males than females up until age 29. In the 75+ age group Females are over 60% of the population.

Health Status Report 2005: Demographic Factors

Figure 7:
85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 05-09 00-04 0.10

Wairarapa DHB, Total Population Age-Gender distribution, 2001

Age Group

0.08

0.06

0.04

0.02

0.00 Proportion

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

Female

Male

Migration

Scope for migration analysis, especially internal migration, is seriously hampered by a lack of necessary data. There is no centralised mechanism for collecting data on internal migration. This lack of data also impacts on analysis of international migration by DHBs, since no data is collected on the subsequent movements of new migrants once they are inside the country. The brief analysis in this section draws on a Census question which asks where the respondent was at the last Census five years ago. The Census data is the only available dataset however it needs to be treated with caution. A person could have moved a number of times between the two Censuses, or even moved back to the same address five years ago. Inter-censal migration data is unlikely to provide a true picture of population movement. Also, as with other migration data, often only the net migration flow is reported, which masks the magnitude of movement. For example, a large inflow of immigrants into an area could be offset by an equally large outflow of emigrants, resulting in only a small net flow. Table 3 below shows the impact of migration on Wairarapa TAs. All TAs benefit from international migration which offset the net internal outflows.

Health Status Report 2005: Demographic Factors

Table 3: Inter-censal migration change by Territorial Authority, 1996 to 2001

2001 Census Pop Net internal migration Net International migration Total net migration

Number South Wairarapa Carterton Masterton 8,718 6,876 22,593 -309 105 -600

% -4% 2% -3%

Number 198 138 618

% 2% 2% 3%

Number -111 243 18

% -1% 4% 0%

Health Status Report 2005: Demographic Factors

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