Professional Documents
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Disclosures
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. This material has been prepared solely for the purposes of illustration and discussion. Broyhill Asset Management is the marketing name for the investment management business conducted by Broyhill Asset Management, LLC. and its affiliates. Broyhill Asset Management, LLC is an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Private investment vehicles are offered through Broyhill Wakin General Partners LLC, Surety Capital Management LLC, and Broyhill Strategic Partners LLC, and are only offered by delivery of confidential offering memorandum and subscription materials to eligible investors who meet certain statutory and/or regulatory criteria. Each General Partner is a separate legal entity and is affiliated with Broyhill Asset Management, LLC through common ownership and control. Under no circumstances should the information contained herein be used or considered as an offer to sell, or solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Any security offering is subject to certain investor eligibility criteria as detailed in the applicable offering documents. The information contained herein is confidential and may not be reproduced or circulated in whole or in part. The information is in summary form for convenience of presentation, it is not complete and should not be relied upon as such. Any information, data, statement, opinions, or projections made herein may contain certain forward looking statements, projections, and information that are based on the beliefs of Broyhill Asset Management as well as assumptions made by, and information currently available to, Broyhill Asset Management. Such statements reflect the view of Broyhill Asset Management with respect to future events and are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions (including, but not limited to, changes in general economic and business conditions, interest rate and securities market fluctuations, competition from within and without the investment industry, new products and services in the investment industry, changes in customer profiles, and changes in laws and regulations applicable to Broyhill Asset Management). Should one or more of these other risks or uncertainties materialize, or should underlying assumptions prove incorrect, actual results may vary materially from those described herein. All information, including performance information, has been prepared in good faith; there are no representations or warranty expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness, of the information, and nothing herein shall be relied upon as a promise or representation as to the past or future performance. This material may include information that is based, in part or in full, on hypothetical assumptions, models, and/or other analysis (which may not necessarily be described herein). No representations or warranty are made as to the reasonableness of any such assumptions, models, or analysis. The information set forth herein was gathered from various sources which are believed, but not guaranteed, to be reliable. Unless stated otherwise, any opinions expressed herein are current as of the date hereof and are subject to change at any time. Accordingly, neither Broyhill Asset Management nor its principals or affiliates make any representations as to the timeliness of any information in this presentation.
Disclosures| 2
Agenda
Agenda | 3
Good News
Source: JPMorgan
Blowing Bubbles
Blowing Bubbles | 12
Source: Broyhill Asset Management, GMO Quarterly Letter Night of Living Fed October 2010
Blowing Bubbles | 13
Yet it rallied from 1100 to over 1500 during the next eighteen months. In June 1998, the S&P was priced to deliver negative returns for the next decade.
Source: Broyhill Asset Management, GMO
Blowing Bubbles | 15
Yet the market rallied from 1250 back to 1500 over the next year.
Again, in June 2006, the S&P was priced to deliver negative returns for the next decade.
Source: Broyhill Asset Management, GMO
Blowing Bubbles | 16
Shortly beyond the 1998-1999 rally, stocks subsequently lost nearly half their value.
After The Greatest Suckers Rally in History from 20022007, stocks fell to trend losing over half their value.
Blowing Bubbles | 17
Everyone has a plan 'til they get punched in the mouth. - Mike Tyson
Blowing Bubbles | 18
Bad News
Source: GMO
The Bad News | 20
Source: dshort.com
The best investors in the world do not target returns. They focus on risk. -Seth Klarman
It is possible for an old, overweight ball player, whose legs and batting eye are gone, to tag a fast ball on the nose for a pinch-hit home run, but you dont change your line-up because of it.
The sound reason for increasing the percentage in common stocks [beyond 50%] would be the appearance of bargain price levels created in a protracted bear market. Conversely, sound procedure would call for reducing the commonstock component below 50% when in the judgment of the investor the market level has become dangerously high. - Benjamin Graham, 1949 The Intelligent Investor
10.0%
8.0%
Estimates expected returns for Japanese equities at 5% over the next seven years. If profit margins rise to international levels, expected returns climb to double digits. Long blue chips, short junk is a layup over the next ten years, but anyones guess over the next ten weeks or months.
-0.1% 4.6% 4.3%
10.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
-2.8% US Large Cap Equity US Small Cap Equity US High Quality Emerging Equity Japanese Equity
Deleveraging is a delayed and lengthy process often lasting a full decade or longer.
In the aftermath of banking crises over the past century, public debt has risen on average over 86 percent.
Source: This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crisis
Opportunities For a High Risk World | 38
European Sovereign CDS European Financials CDS Short European Financials Short Euro Rates Lower for Longer
Bottom Line | 52
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