1

3 98% 85%
4 Kato-Katz

2005 706

2006

2 2

12 1 2 3 3 4 4 5*
[ ]

[ ] SjCA

[ ] R532.21

[ ] A

Multi-dimensional evaluation system and optimization strategy study of schistosomiasis

japonicum transmission dynamics model
Wan, Cheng1
1

Liu, , Yun3, Tu Xiao-ming4, Wu, Hai-wei5*

[]08KJD31000630671836

[] 1 2100292
2100963 2004384 210029 5 Center for
International Health Research, Rhode Island Hospital, Providence, RI 02903, USA
[]

*Emailhaiwei_wu@brown.edu

12345

[Abstract] Objective This paper deeply analysis the simulation effect of S.J. transmission
dynamics which based on cellular automata model. And a multi-dimensional evaluation system
and optimization strategies are proposed for evaluating the effectiveness of such
models. Methods After a systematic study of the output of the S.J. simulation model based on
the existing cellular automata model, selected index, such as the Youden index, sensitivity,
specificity, accuracy, and prevalence distance, are used to assessment the validity of a cellular
automata based model. Results The multi-dimensional evaluation system can effectively analyze
the effectiveness of simulation model. Furthermore, the optimization strategy can be evoked by
the evaluation system. Conclusion The simulation results can be accurately assessed in the
similar discrete stochastic models of transmission dynamics as represented by the S.J model
based on cellular automata model. And our work can be of referenced by other similar epidemics
dynamic models.
[Key words] Schistosomiasis japonicum; Transmission dynamics; Cellular automata model;
Multi-dimensional evaluation; Infection situation

60 72
75 2 [1]

20 20

SjCA

70

200511200611

90%

N=706
2

GIS

2 6
1

Kato-Katz

EPG
1

40 mg/kg

2
3

6
MATLAB 7.0

SPSS 17.0 Excel

2003 Access 2003 Google Earth
Google Earth Windows XP Professional

Intel Core2
3
SjCA [2]

 [3] [3] [4] [4]

(Clone) [5] [5]

[6] [6]
SjCA
(GRID)
PERSON
SjCA 2005
1 d 2006
GRID

( EPG
intensity) 1 [2]
1 SjCA
Table 1 Parameter values of SjCA model

20

[8-9]
[10]

1/

0.7595
0.0037980.0456
4 ()
98%
-

[12]

di
ei

1()
()
10

[7]

fi

[11]

98%
4
ME4dtds

4.1

4.2
EPG EPG
0 EPG 0 EPG
4
N nn 20052006 526

N np 2005200646 N p n

2005200686 N p p 2005
2006482006

4 S nn 2006

S p p 2006 S p n

2006 S np
2006
2
S nn S np S p n S p p

4.3
ME4dtds
4.4

ME4dtds(Multidimensional Evaluation System for disease

transmission dynamic simulation ME4dtds )

3

16 2006
simPreDiff

( S np + S p p )
( Nnp + N p p ) 100% 1
simPreDiff = abs
100%

N
N

simPreDis)
simPreDis = 1-ABS - /
1

( S np + S p p )
( Nnp + N p p ) 100%

100%
N
N

simPreDis = 1 abs

N np + N p p )
(

2
100%
N

S np + S p p

= 1 abs
1
N np + N p p

(sensitivity)

Sensitivity = S p p

(S

np

+ S p p ) 100% 3

(specificitie)

Specificities = S nn

(S

nn

+ S pn ) 100% 4

(youden index)
YoudenIndex = ( Sensitivity + Specificities ) 1 5
accuracy)
+

accuracy = ( S nn + S pp ) N 100%

6 (6)

2006 612
612/706=86.7% 2006EPG9494/706=13.3%
accuracy) = * + *

Sensitivity
=

(S
=(S

Spp
np
nn

+ Sp p )

S p p + Sn p
N
100%

+Specificities
S p p + Sn p
N

Snn + S pn
N

Snn + Spn
Snn
100%
S nn + S pn
N

+ S pp ) N 100% = accuracy

706 20052006

134 94(prevalence) 18.98%

13.31% EPG 0.9853.701 0.4722.012 EPG (eggs per gram,
)
2005 706 2006

 2
2

2.1

2.2
(f)=0.759 7 (moveCo)=0.4
Swat Revised =20 SjCA 1 000 8 8 8
8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
8 8 8 8 8 8

1 000 4

91.92% 80.23% 22.52% 89.10%

11.62% 1 1 000
1 =99.97%
79.70%

 1 1 000

Fig. 1 Accuracy rates and simPreDis values in 1000 times of

simulations
4 1000

dis

91.92%

accuracy

80.23%

Sensitivity

22.52%

specificities

89.10%

youdenIndex

11.62%

EPG: 0 100 EPG:101 400 ,

EPG 400
06
1000
78.33%

10%

Table 2 Simulation results of intensity of infection

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16

2006

2006

535
75.78%
18
2.55%
0
0.00%
0
0.00%
62
8.78%
4
0.57%
3
0.42%
77
10.91%
0
0.00%
0
0.00%
0
0.00%
0
0.00%
6
0.85%
0
0.00%
1
0.14%
0
0.00%

2.3

2.4

100 2 100
100
15% 35% 5% 20%

3 100 3
85% 95% 77%
83% 2 43
0 25

 2
Figure2 The changing of multi-index values in learning

3
Figure 3 The changing of simPreDis values in learning

[13][7]
[14][8]

SjCA 0.9

80%, 1000 12%

SjCA

80.23%
82.86%

6:1

 4
Figure 4 The personal dimensional index value changing under the same simPreDis
7

 5
Figure 5 The changing of youden index and accuracy values under different improvement

 6
Figure 6 The increasement of YoudenIndex values changing under different prevalence

2
2.1

A
10% B 1%

0.5% A B A

0.5%
*100% = 5%
10%

0.5%
*100% = 50% A B
1%

Dis

64 N=706 I=13.31%
simPreDis=0
S nn

=518 S p p =0 =0 =-

0.1536 =0.8464 =0.7337

S nn

=612 S p p =94

SjCA

2.2

63 4

(Learn time)
(Swat Revised)
(moveCo)
(f)
(simPrevalence)
(dis)
(accuracy)
(sensitivity)
(specificities)
(youdenIndex)
(simPreDiff )

10
20
0.4
0.7995
0.099225.
53
82.44
21.28
91.83
13.11
0.0339

15
24
0.3
0.7595
0.13743.1
9
80.88
29.79
88.73
18.51
0.0043

77
16
0.3
0.7195
0.13310

96
18
0.35
0.6395
0.13310

79.04
21.28
87.91
9.19
0

80.17
25.53
88.56
14.09
0

6377 N=706
(prevalence)=13.31%

 S p p = 20 S nn = 538

10 0.0918 0.1982
0.7904 0.8045

10 0.0918 0.1082
0.7904 0.8045
75

N=706 11(prevalence)
13% 3%

S p p = 15 S nn = 538
S p p = 20 S nn = 538
86

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