SIGINT: The new electronic warfare

SIGINT (signals intelligence) is a general term that includes radio band (COMINT, or communications intelligence), radar band (ELINT, or electronic intelligence), and MASINT (measurement and signature intelligence) systems. By the Defense Dept.s lengthier definitions, COMINT is technical information and intelligence derived by other than the intended recipients from foreign communications; ELINT is technical and geolocation intelligence derived from foreign noncommunications electromagnetic radiations emanating from other than nuclear detonations or radioactive sources; and MASINT is scientific and technical intelligence obtained by quantitative and qualitative analysis of data (metric, angle, spatial, wavelength, time dependence, modulation, plasma, and hydromagnetic) derived from specific technical sensors for
TOTAL SIGINT FUNDING FORECAST RDT&E + Procurement FY04 $billions $2

the purpose of identifying any distinctive features associated with the target, source, emitter, or sender measurement of the same (the detected feature may be either reflected or emitted). These long-winded characterizations might serve to explain the relatively low profile SIGINT has had in the past among electronic warfare (EW) programs, while jammers and radar and missile warning systems have gotten all the attention. However, that has been changing since the conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq. Suddenly, monitoring communications has become vitaloften more vital than fighting sophisticated surface-to-air missile radar networks. Infrared-guided MANPADS (manportable air defense systems) have become the number one threat to aircraft, and small units of irregular troops, often

in dense urban environments, have taken over from easier-to-track massed armies. These new opponents demand new methods for location and tracking, and SIGINT is thought to offer one of the best opportunities. Much new funding is being programmed to develop SIGINT systems.

Radar dominates ELINT

Teal Group forecasts that, overall, the U.S. ELINT market will grow from todays annual figure of roughly $500 million to about $1 billion in FY12, based on planned funding for documented programs. The largest portion of U.S. ELINT is for airborne platforms, and will remain so. Surprisingly, however, ELINT purchases for manned aircraft will continue to dominate those for UAVs, although RDT&E spending for both types will remain about equal. Late this decade, the Aerial Common Sensor (ACS) will replace both ARL (airborne reconnaissance-low) and Guardrail aircraft for Army surveillance, reconnaissance, and ELINT/COMINT/MASINT; fielding is planned for FY09. The Navy has also bought into the program. The ACS commercial business jet based platform will carry a family of modular sensors capable of operating independently or remotely, via satellite communications or line-of-sight datalinks from a ground processor. Multiple sensor payloads will be carried simultaneously, currently stressing COMINT, but including ELINT, IMINT (imagery intelligence), and MASINT. Other sensors will include electrooptical/infrared, SAR/MTI (synthetic aperture radar/moving target indicator), foliage penetrating radar, and hyperspectral/multispectral imaging. But the ACS, even if procured by both the Army and Navy, will not be a dominant ELINT program. By far the largest segment of the market will be radar warn-

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U.S. ELINT Intl ELINT Available to U.S. manufacturers.

U.S. COMINT Intl COMINT

U.S. MASINT

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ing receivers, including the more capable ones used for electronic support measures (ESM) by many platforms. RDT&E will remain moderate, as most of the receivers are continuing programs or are just beginning production. But systems that should continue to enjoy solid procurement throughout the decade include Lockheed Martins AN/ALQ-210 for the MH60R Seahawk and AN/ALQ217 for the E-2C Hawkeye; BAE Systems AN/ALR-94 for the F/A22 and AN/ALQ-211 for helicopters; Northrop Grummans Falcon Edge EW Suite for Block 60 F-16s; and Raytheons AN/ALR-67(V)3 for Super Hornets. BAE Systems and Northrop Grummans JSF EW suite are to begin production near the end of our forecast period but should quickly ramp up to become the single largest program, with the ELINT component alone worth $142 million for procurement in FY12. For UAVs, most ELINT programs are still in the planning stages. This presents great opportunities, but even with optimistic forecasts, the only UAV programs likely to reach manned aircraft funding levels are systems for Global Hawk. The Air Force plans to field Northrop Grummans (formerly TRWs) high-band subsystem SIGINT payload aboard Global Hawk in FY05. Northrop Grummans system is now the core of the Air Forces Airborne Signals Intelligence Program. ASIP was launched in FY03 with a $31.4-million budget, with more money included in platform fundng lines, for a total of about $100 million for RDT&E in FY04. But aside from ASIP, the remaining programs are all of moderate size. Only UCAV (unmanned combat air vehicle) programs are likely to equal Global Hawk in funding levels, but this will have to wait for further air vehicle and CONOPS (concept of operations) development. Tactical UAV programs will remain smaller, with the Armys Tactical SIGINT Payload to receive only moderate funding. A downselect left BAE Systems and Applied Signals Technology competing in late 2003. On the other hand, ELINT RDT&E

The Aerial Common Sensor may be mounted on business aircraft such as the Gulfstream G-450 (left) or Embraer EMB-145.

for UAVs will remain high throughout our forecast period, about equal to manned research, and this should provide knockon technology benefits for other ELINT programs. For ships and submarines there are fewer programs, but this will nonetheless
ELINT FUNDING FORECAST U.S. and available international FY04 $billions $1.2

remain an important segment of the market. In fact, Lockheed Martins AN/BLQ10 SIGINT system for submarines could be the single largest international ELINT (or COMINT) procurement program for our forecast periodsurpassing even individual airborne programswith produc-

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Air manned Prophet

Air UAV Other U.S. and Intl

Only includes international funding available to U.S. manufacturers.

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COMINT FUNDING FORECAST U.S. and available international FY04 $millions $500

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0 FY03 FY04 FY05 ACS Naval FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 Air manned Prophet & Wolfpack Air UAV International

packable and mounted on high-mobility wheeled vehicles, they are cheap and off-the-shelf. Blocks IV and V will have more sophisticated networked ELINT and COMINT systems, and RDT&E funding (at least) will remain moderate. But Prophet will probably not exceed even a fairly minor radar warning receiver program in procurement funding. In terms of the players in the U.S. ELINT market, funding is split remarkably evenly among four major manufacturers: BAE Systems, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon, and Lockheed Martin. This fairly equal market share is likely to continue throughout our 10-year forecast period, considering that radar warning receiver and ESM production for current platforms is the dominant segment of procurement funding.

COMINT: Small but growing

Communications intelligence has long been a vital military requirement at the grassroots level, and many of todays COMINT systems have been in service for some time. Such intelligence is equally valuable for air, ground, and naval forces, with large numbers of simple systems being procured to provide situational awareness for soldiers, ships, and submarines. This contrasts with radar-band ELINT, where aircraft need more expensive and sophisticated radar receivers for warning and self-defense against the launch of radar-guided surface-to-air missiles. The COMINT market will average about one-third the value of ELINT across our forecast period. Procurement funding for legacy systems will drop for a few years, followed by growth of new technology systems such as ACS and systems for UAVs. RDT&E funding will hold fairly stable throughout the next 10 years. BAE Systems Compass Call remains one of the biggest COMINT programs. This suite of electronic countermeasures systems is mounted aboard EC-130H Hercules aircraft primarily to disrupt data and voice communications. Although Compass Call has been fielded and operational since 1983, it continues to evolve and adapt to counter the constantly changing tactical communications of adversaries. Most recently, this is reflected in a shift from traditional military communication systems to an increasing focus on commercial/civil com-

Only includes international funding available to U.S. manufacturers.

tion likely for Virginia, Seawolf, and Los Angeles class subs. The AN/MLQ-40(V) Prophet program is the primary Army effort to develop an integrated ground-based and airborne all-frequency signals intercept/ emitter location/countermeasures system for high-mobility multipurpose wheeled vehicles and tactical UAVs. The systems purpose is to search, intercept, locate, identify, and apply countermeasures to enemy fire control and command and control emitters. Having taken over from the canCompass Call suites are mounted aboard aircraft primarily to disrupt voice and data transmissions.

celled IEWCS (Intelligence and Electronic Warfare Common Sensor), Prophet is now the major Army ground forces EW program for the next decades, and will replace the rag-tag collection of noninteroperable systems that currently make up the Armys SIGINT and EW capability. But dominant and important as it is for the Army, Prophet is not a huge program in funding terms. Despite the hype, much as for the media-friendly ACS, the actual funding numbers are small. Block I, II, and III, all COMINT systems, are finally in production. Essentially man-

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munications. Compass Call has been absolutely vital to recent U.S. operations in Afghanistan and Iraq, and several upgrades are planned or under way. Rounding out the top three U.S. COMINT programs today are two more airborne manned systemsACS and BAE Systems AJCN (adaptive joint command, control, communications, and computer intelligence and reconnaissance node). AJCN began as an advanced concept technology demonstration, but it could provide the backbone for future U.S. COMINT networks. By the latter part of this decade, AJCN could become the worlds biggest single COMINT procurement program. Unlike ELINT, COMINT will find its most important market segment in the UAV arena by the end of this decade. Short-range COMINT receivers placed on unmanned aircraft will support ground troops, with many inexpensive systems to be procured. This will cover all scales of UAVs, from the Global Hawk ASIP to (eventually) microscale COMINT receivers on mini- and micro-UAVs. Teal Group is forecasting steady RDT&E and procurement funding for several programs, and more will undoubtedly be created. For ships and submarines there are fewer programs, but this will remain an important segment of the market. BAE Systems AN/SSQ-108(V) Outboard is a tactical intercept and direction-finding system, providing over-the-horizon detection, identification, and targeting of surface ships, based on COMINT ESM in the LF/MF/HF/VHF bands. Outboard production ended in the late 1990s for U.S. and U.K. destroyers and for cruisers performing carrier escort duties, with at least 36 U.S. and six U.K. systems. But a major U.S./U.K. upgrade program, the COBLU (Cooperative Outboard Logistics Upgrade) was signed in August 1995. Following five low-rate initial production systems contracted in May 1999, and successful operational evaluation in December 1999, the Navy contracted for full-rate production of 35 COBLU upgrades in June 2000. Deliveries of the base year award of six systems were to begin in late 2001. Additional options could be awarded each year until 2005, bringing the total value to $250 million. This would make COBLU the largest single COMINT procurement.

Lockheed Martins AN/BLQ-10 SIGINT system for submarines will follow as an important procurement for the rest of the decade. The BLQ-10 consists of signal receivers, displays, and advanced processing and analysis equipment. It will provide detection, identification, and direction-finding of radar and communications signals, to aid in battlegroup selfprotection, situation awareness, and intelligence gathering. The BLQ-10 system will consist primarily of NDI/COTS equipment. For ground-based COMINT, as noted above, the Armys Prophet system is important, but funding will remain moderate. Lockheed Martin in Santa Clara, Calif., is expected to become prime contractor for Prophet Block I, having announced its intention to acquire Prophet developer Titan in September 2003. Production of Prophet Block I is under waymore than 60 of the 83 planned systems had been delivered by the end of 2003. Block I includes the AN/PRD-13 system, primarily for COMINT interception from 20 to 2,000 MHz. A high mastmounted antenna attached to the highmobility vehicles roof collects signals. Prophet Block I was deployed in both Afghanistan and Iraq. Titan delivered at least 300 additional man-packable PRD13 systems to various customers before the Prophet program. In April 2003, General Dynamics Decision Systems won a $19.9-million award to act as prime contractor and systems integrator for Prophet Block II/III. Combined Block II/III upgrades will provide an improved receiver processing unit with expanded frequency range (Block III), and the AN/TLQ-17 COMINT jammer, for electronic attack from 1.5 to 80 MHz (Block II). Deliveries are planned to begin this month, with all 83 Block I systems upgraded by next March. Unlike the market for ELINT, the U.S. COMINT market has been dominated by one manufacturer, BAE Systems, which has garnered about half of contracted (and forecast) COMINT funding. However, Teal Group sees a large percentage of future fundingagain in contrast with ELINTas still available and uncontracted. BAE Systems does not control the market.
David L. Rockwell Teal Group drockwell@tealgroup.com

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